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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Ornelas, Emanuel |
| Abstract: | I study how political competition affects the feasibility of free trade agreements (FTAs). I show that the possibility of political turnover creates strategic motivations for the formation of FTAs. Specifically, a government facing a high enough probability of losing power will have an incentive to form a trading bloc to 'tie the hands' of its successor. This incentive mitigates inefficiencies in the incumbent's decision to form FTAs, regardless of its bias toward special interests. An FTA can affect the likelihood of political turnover as well. Accounting for that effect, I show that an incumbent party with a known bias toward special interests could seek an FTA as a commitment device toward less distortionary policies, thereby enhancing its own electoral prospects. Overall, the analysis reveals the importance of considering the time horizon of policymakers when studying their decision to enter in FTAs. |
| Keywords: | regionalism; free trade agreements; political competition; lobbying |
| JEL: | F15 F13 D72 |
| Date: | 2024–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126806 |
| By: | Yeh, Fang-Jui |
| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of educational qualifications on city councilmen vote shares during Taiwan's 2018 elections. The research provides a concrete quantitative measure for evaluating educational qualifications in politics and explores their role in a candidate's political career. The study finds that candidates from the two major political parties tend to have higher educational qualifications than independent or smaller party candidates, which may impact political party primaries. Regression models indicate that educational qualifications can have an impact on expected vote share, with major party candidates being more affected. However, the study suggests that educational qualifications are not the most crucial factor affecting voters' attitudes towards county and city councilmen. Instead, political experience and issue articulation have more significant impacts. Political figures who focus solely on their educational background should be refocused to have a more diverse political platform that includes participation experience and issue discussion for the benefit of the society as a whole. |
| Date: | 2023–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tgwm3_v1 |
| By: | Anderson, D. Mark; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Karbownik, Krzysztof; Rees, Daniel I.; Steffens, Camila |
| Abstract: | The Poor People's Campaign (PPC) of 1968 was focused on highlighting, and ultimately reducing, poverty in the United States. As part of the campaign, protestors from across the country were transported to Washington, D.C. in 6 separate bus caravans, each of which made stops en route to rest, recruit, and hold non-violent protests. Using data from 1960-1970, we estimate the effects of these protests on congressional election outcomes. In the South, we find that PPC protests led to reductions in Democratic vote share and turnout, while in the West they may have benefited Democratic candidates at the expense of their Republican rivals. |
| Keywords: | Civil Rights, Election, Political Economics, Protests |
| JEL: | D72 I30 J15 N32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312178 |
| By: | Shamsi, Javad |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how immigration reshapes political landscapes, centring on the influx of immigrants from the EU's 2004 enlargement and its implications for the UK. I use a new variation in exposure to immigration based on migrant flows across various industries coupled with the employment structure in each region. Addressing potential concerns of endogeneity, I introduce a novel shift-share IV design, harnessing the industry-specific flow of migrants to regions outside the UK within the pre-2004 EU. The findings reveal a significant impact on support for the right-wing UK Independence Party and the Brexit Leave campaign, accompanied by a decline in Labour Party support. Moreover, the research indicates that voters' social attitudes toward immigration become more adverse in response to immigration. Political parties, particularly Conservatives, are also observed to increasingly engage with the topic of immigration in constituencies most affected by immigration, typically marked by negative rhetoric. The paper reconciles these findings by highlighting how immigration shocks entrench immigration cleavage, realigning political conflict from traditional economic lines to new cultural dimensions. |
| Keywords: | immigration; political realignment; industry-specific migration; EU enlargement |
| JEL: | J15 D72 F22 J61 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126828 |
| By: | Arandjelović, Ognjen |
| Abstract: | In response to the growing social discontent regarding what is perceived as generational injustice, due to younger generations of voters facing long-term negative consequences from issues disproportionately decided by the votes of older generations of voters, there have been suggestions to introduce an upper age voting threshold. These have been all but universally dismissed as offensive and contrary to basic democratic values. In the present article, I show that the idea is in fact entirely consonant with present-day democratic practices and far from without a precedent. Hence, I describe how the aforementioned generational injustice can be rectified using a simple vote-weighting scheme which is easy to implement and interpret. Lastly, I discuss the societal effects that this alteration of the voting system would have on the distribution of the origins of political power. |
| Date: | 2023–03–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qkg4f_v1 |
| By: | Rozo Villarraga, Sandra Viviana; Quintana, Alejandra; Urbina Florez, Maria Jose |
| Abstract: | How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South This paper assesses how the regularization of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants affected the electoral choices of Colombian natives by comparing election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for a program that supports forced migrants. The findings show negligible impacts on native voting behavior. The study then conducted a survey experiment to investigate the lack of voter response. Even after receiving information about the pro-gram, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views toward migrants. This suggests that their indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. In contrast, the electoral indifference of natives may be explained by the fact that the program did not change labor and crime outcomes for native Colombians, and most migrants remained in the informal sector despite benefiting from the program through improvements in labor conditions and better access to public services. |
| Date: | 2023–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10342 |
| By: | Brice Fabre (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IPP - Institut des politiques publiques); Marc Sangnier (UNamur - Université de Namur [Namur], AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses French data to simultaneously estimate the impact of two types of connections on government subsidies allocated to municipalities. Investigating different types of connection in a same setting helps to distinguish between the different motivations that could drive pork-barreling. We differentiate between municipalities where ministers held office before their appointment to the government and those where they lived as children. Exploiting ministers' entries into and exits from the government, we show that municipalities where a minister was mayor receive 30% more investment subsidies when the politician they are linked to joins the government, and a similar size decrease when the minister departs. In contrast, we do not observe these outcomes for municipalities where ministers lived as children. These findings indicate that altruism toward childhood friends and family does not fuel pork-barreling, and suggest that altruism toward adulthood social relations or career concerns matter. We also present complementary evidence suggesting that observed porkbarreling is the result of soft influence of ministers, rather than of their formal control over the administration they lead.✩ This paper was previously circulated under the titles ''What motivates French pork: Political career concerns or private connections?'' and ''The returns from private and political connections: New evidence from French municipalities''. We greatly appreciated comments and suggestions from three anonymous reviewers, the Editor, |
| Keywords: | Local favoritism, Distributive politics, Political connections, Personal connections |
| Date: | 2024–12–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04930928 |
| By: | Pradeep Dubey; Siddhartha Sahi |
| Abstract: | In a country with multiple elections, it may be expedient to hold some or all of them on a common polling date. Our main result, Theorem C, is that under certain assumptions, an increase in the simultaneity of polling increases the likelihood of a sweep, i.e. the likelihood that a single party wins all the elections. We discuss the applicability of our result to the two most common real world electoral systems, namely first-past-the-post (most voters, including US and India) and party list proportional representation (most countries). We deduce Theorem C from a certain inequality proved in Theorem D, which is of independent interest. In particular, we connect our inequality to the Harris correlation inequality, which is a multivariate generalization of the Chebyshev sum inequality, and plays an important role in statistical mechanics and graph theory. More precisely, we show that Theorem D also implies Theorem F, which extends the domain of the Harris inequality to a larger class of functions. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.01663 |
| By: | Tomic, Slobodan; Rauh, William Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Despite omnipresence of oversight bodies, they operate with varying levels of success across countries. Systemic studies of performance of oversight bodies are rare and most with positive findings have been conducted within single countries and operate under neo-institutionalist paradigms. In this study we propose ways in which political culture mediates the effectiveness of oversight bodies. Using data from 62 countries we develop a series of grouped time series models to examine how established measures of political culture affect horizontal accountability. The findings suggest a strong relationship between culture and the effectiveness of horizontal accountability institutions. |
| Date: | 2023–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:uf3nw_v1 |
| By: | Arora, Abhishek; George, Siddharth; Rao, Vijayendra; Sharan, MR |
| Abstract: | Governments across the world have increasingly devolved powers to locally elected leaders. This paper studies the consequences of local democracy, exploiting a natural experiment in Karnataka, India. Local elections were postponed in 2020, resulting in appointed administrators taking over governance in villages whose elected leaders completed their terms that year. This created quasi-random variation in the governance regime across villages. The paper brings together a rich set of administrative datasets—budgetary allocations from the universe of 6, 000 villages, more than a million public works projects, local bureaucratic attendance, welfare benefits, and a primary survey of more than 11, 810 households—to estimate the impacts of local democracy. The findings show that local democracy aligns spending more closely with citizen preferences, but these gains accrue more to men, upper castes, and other advantaged social groups. Elected leaders are more responsive to citizen needs and cause local bureaucrats to exert more effort. However, appointed administrators perform better on aspects of governance that are aligned with their specialized skills. Local democracy improves governance in some domains, but it has no overall impact on economic outcomes or effectiveness of COVID-19 management. |
| Date: | 2023–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10555 |
| By: | Pecorari, Natalia Gisel; Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio |
| Abstract: | This paper advances the understanding of the linkages between trust in government and citizen participation in Latin America and the Caribbean, using machine learning techniques and Latinobarómetro 2020 data. Proponents of the concept of stealth democracy argue that an inverse relationship exists between political trust and citizen participation, while deliberative democracy theorists claim the opposite. The paper estimates that trust in national governments or other governmental institutions plays neither a dominant nor consistent role in driving political participation. Instead, interest in politics, personal circumstances such as experience of crime and discrimination, and socioeconomic aspects appear to drive citizen participation much more strongly in the Latin America and the Caribbean region. This is true across models imposing simple linear trends (logit and lasso) and others allowing for nonlinear and complex relations (decision trees). The results vary across the type of participation—signing a petition, participation in demonstrations, or involvement in a community issue—which the paper attributes to increasing net costs associated with participation. |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10335 |
| By: | Shitong Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the limitations of the Median Voter Theorem and introduces a novel framework to analyze the optimal economic ideological positions of political parties. By incorporating Nash equilibrium, we examine the mechanisms and elasticity of ideal deviation costs, voter distribution, and policy feasibility. Our findings show that an increase in a party's ideal deviation cost shifts its optimal ideological position closer to its ideal point. Additionally, if a voter distribution can be expressed as a positive linear combination of two other distributions, its equilibrium point must lie within the interval defined by the equilibrium points of the latter two. We also find that decreasing feasibility costs incentivize governments, regardless of political orientation, to increase fiscal expenditures (e.g., welfare) and reduce fiscal revenues (e.g., taxes). This dynamic highlights the fiscal pressures commonly faced by democratic nations under globalization. Moreover, we demonstrate that even with uncertain voter distributions, parties can identify optimal ideological positions to maximize their utility. Lastly, we explain why the proposed framework cannot be applied to community ideologies due to their fundamentally different nature. This study provides new theoretical insights into political strategies and establishes a foundation for future empirical research. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.06562 |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid |
| Abstract: | We analyze a stylized creative region populated by three groups of individuals: the elites who hold political and taxing power, the entrepreneurial creative class that produces a knowledge good, and workers. Political competition between the elites and the creative class results in the elites levying distortionary taxes on the creative class. We provide a rationale for this kind of taxation and then present two results. First, we demonstrate that this kind of distortionary taxation reduces the equilibrium growth rate of the economy of our creative region. Second, we explain why this negative result arises. |
| Keywords: | Creative Class, Distortionary Tax, Elite, Political Competition |
| JEL: | H21 R11 |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123673 |
| By: | Parmigiani, Alberto |
| Abstract: | What is the relationship between campaign contributions and legislative behavior of elected representatives? In this paper, I find that more concentrated donations negatively correlate with three costly legislative endeavors of members of Congress: bill sponsorship, speechmaking on the floor and witness appearances before committees. For bill sponsorship, the negative correlation is stronger for topics related to redistribution, such as health and social welfare bills. To interpret these results, I argue that a more skewed structure of contributions makes members of Congress more dependent on their top donors and thus potentially more inclined to represent their interests. By reciprocating favors to donors, by seeking to secure their continued financial support, or simply by enjoying more leisure time as a result of feeling secure in their financial backing, federal legislators are less active in activities related to the Congressional agenda and public policy. Overall, I contend that campaign contributions distort the incentives of elected representatives to allocate legislative effort in Congress. |
| Keywords: | legislative behavior; agenda; campaign donations; congress; money in politics |
| JEL: | D72 I38 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127295 |
| By: | Kiran Tomlinson; Johan Ugander; Jon Kleinberg |
| Abstract: | Recent research on instant runoff voting (IRV) shows that it exhibits a striking combinatorial property in one-dimensional preference spaces: there is an "exclusion zone" around the median voter such that if a candidate from the exclusion zone is on the ballot, then the winner must come from the exclusion zone. Thus, in one dimension, IRV cannot elect an extreme candidate as long as a sufficiently moderate candidate is running. In this work, we examine the mathematical structure of exclusion zones as a broad phenomenon in more general preference spaces. We prove that with voters uniformly distributed over any $d$-dimensional hyperrectangle (for $d > 1$), IRV has no nontrivial exclusion zone. However, we also show that IRV exclusion zones are not solely a one-dimensional phenomenon. For irregular higher-dimensional preference spaces with fewer symmetries than hyperrectangles, IRV can exhibit nontrivial exclusion zones. As a further exploration, we study IRV exclusion zones in graph voting, where nodes represent voters who prefer candidates closer to them in the graph. Here, we show that IRV exclusion zones present a surprising computational challenge: even checking whether a given set of positions is an IRV exclusion zone is NP-hard. We develop an efficient randomized approximation algorithm for checking and finding exclusion zones. We also report on computational experiments with exclusion zones in two directions: (i) applying our approximation algorithm to a collection of real-world school friendship networks, we find that about 60% of these networks have probable nontrivial IRV exclusion zones; and (ii) performing an exhaustive computer search of small graphs and trees, we also find nontrivial IRV exclusion zones in most graphs. While our focus is on IRV, the properties of exclusion zones we establish provide a novel method for analyzing voting systems in metric spaces more generally. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.16719 |
| By: | ; Leruth, Benjamin (University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | This conceptual paper argues for the importance of studying three policy paradigms on welfare opposition: First, welfare populism, the opposition to welfare state policies and their administration that do not benefit the ‘common people’. Second, welfare chauvinism, the opposition to the inclusion of non-natives who live in a nation-state from welfare provisions. Third and finally, welfare Euroscepticism, the opposition to the harmonization of welfare policies at the European Union level. We argue that these paradigms have distinct causes and consequences that should be studied across countries in more detail, including a focus on their multidimensional nature and different political actors. And while these paradigms may not lead to a complete farewell to welfare, they most certainly have been shaping and will continue to shape welfare state recalibration. Precisely, we argue that due to welfare opposition, welfare states continue to be influenced by radical right and neoliberal logics instead of focusing on diminishing inequality. This paper concludes with avenues for future research. |
| Date: | 2023–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qbehr_v1 |
| By: | Depetris Chauvin, Emilio |
| Abstract: | Using multiple waves of two public opinion surveys and a two-way fixed effect model, this paper analyzes how people’s perceptions and attitudes towards public institutions shifted with the business cycle in El Salvador during 2004–2018. It finds that individuals’ levels of trust toward both the president and the municipal government are positively associated with higher levels of income at the municipality level. Income is also a strong predictor of trust in mass media, confidence in the judicial system and, to a lesser extent, trust in the national legislature but income does not affect trust in the Catholic Church. The relationship between income and trust toward the president and municipalities masks a relevant heterogeneity from a rural-urban divide as well as from differences in municipal state capacity. Further, views of income distribution fairness as well as preferences for democracy are positively shaped by municipality-specific business cycles. In contrast, neither generalized trust nor satisfaction with democracy is empirically associated with income at the municipality level. |
| Date: | 2023–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10372 |
| By: | Schiff, Kaylyn Jackson (Emory University); Schiff, Daniel S. (Purdue University); Bueno, Natalia |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the phenomenon of misinformation about misinformation, or politicians "crying wolf"' over fake news. Strategic and false claims that stories are fake news or deepfakes may benefit politicians by helping them maintain support after a scandal. We posit that this benefit, known as the "liar's dividend, " may be achieved through two politician strategies: by invoking informational uncertainty or by encouraging oppositional rallying of core supporters. We administer five survey experiments to over 15, 000 American adults detailing hypothetical politician responses to stories describing real politician scandals. We find that claims of misinformation representing both strategies raise politician support across partisan subgroups. These strategies are effective against text-based reports of scandals, but are largely ineffective against video evidence and do not reduce general trust in media. Finally, these false claims produce greater dividends for politicians than alternative responses to scandal, such as remaining silent or apologizing. |
| Date: | 2023–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x43ph_v1 |
| By: | Zapata Celestino, Kevin |
| Abstract: | The proposal for Basic Income (BI) pushed by renowned figures in Mexico sparked a vigorous debate over social policy between 2015 and 2018. This debate was particularly notable, as it challenged the long-standing dominance of conditional cash transfers, which had remained largely unquestioned as the country’s main antipoverty policy since their introduction in the 1990s. Despite the BI proposal getting wide coverage from the media, it not only failed to gain traction on the government’s agenda but also quickly became irrelevant right after the general elections of 2018. This was due to the unsuccessful coalition-building efforts of the BI proponents, who were unable to reconcile their political disagreements, overcome partisan competition, establish communication, and bridge their policy beliefs on various levels. By conducting interviews with relevant stakeholders, I conclude that the inability of the BI supporters to form a unified advocacy coalition made it impossible to promote social policy change. |
| Keywords: | basic income; social policy; advocacy coalitions; policy change; Mexico |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127066 |
| By: | Mireille Razafindrakoto (LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François Roubaud (LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marta Reis Castilho (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]); Valeria Pero (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]); João Saboia (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil]) |
| Abstract: | Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the ‘Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022. To our knowledge, this paper presents the most comprehensive investigation of Bolsonaro's influence in the spread of the pandemic from two angles: considering Covid-19 mortality and two key transmission mitigation channels (social distancing and vaccination); and exploring the full pandemic cycle (2020–2022) and its dynamics over time. Controlling for a rich set of relevant variables, our results find a strong and persistent ‘Bolsonaro effect' on the death rate: municipalities that were more pro-Bolsonaro recorded significantly more fatalities. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the president's attitude and decisions negatively influenced the population's behaviour. Firstly, pro-Bolsonaro municipalities presented a lower level of compliance with social distancing measures. Secondly, vaccination was relatively less widespread in places more in favour of the former president. Finally, our analysis points to longer-lasting and damaging repercussions. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that the ‘Bolsonaro effect' impacted not only on Covid-19 vaccination, but has affected vaccination campaigns in general thereby jeopardizing the historical success of the National Immunization Program in Brazil. |
| Keywords: | Vaccination and immunization, Death rates, COVID 19, Pandemics, Brazil, Governments, Elections |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04929384 |
| By: | Francois, John Nana Darko; Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena; Kakeu, Johnson; Kouame, Christelle Signo |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of voice and accountability, which captures transparent electoral processes, free media, and freedom of expression, on access to sanitation services in developing countries. The core argument is that voice and accountability increases the visibility of sanitation as a public good and raises awareness of its benefits; hence, increasing its supply and demand. The analysis utilizes data from 73 developing countries and an instrumental variable approach to identify the causal effect of voice and accountability on access to, and use of, sanitation. The paper also employs a novel instrument-free estimator as both an alternative estimator for the analysis and an empirical strategy to formally assess the validity of the instrument in a just-identified model—a previously untestable just-identifying exclusion restriction. The paper finds robust evidence that voice and accountability increase access to sanitation and help close the persistent rural-urban inequality in access to sanitation. The results suggest that key tenets of democracy such a freedom of speech, free media, and power of electoral incentives are not a luxury of the rich—they are relevant to the world’s poor as they can shape the demand and distribution of sanitation services. |
| Date: | 2023–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10430 |
| By: | Pertev, Rasit |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a preliminary economic model of political clientelism and corruption in developing countries with weak rule of law. It explains why this corruption is often chronic and persistent, and further examines its impact on fragility, conflict, and violence. The basic model is built in three stages: (i) political party strategies vis-à-vis clientelist options using a game-theoretical approach, (ii) strategies of using state repression and violence to complement electoral clientelism, and (iii) strategies of geographical/ethnic entities on remaining within a given republic or breaking away. The model predicts that the first clientelist party in power can monopolize government for long periods and further consolidate power by blending in state violence. Political clientelism and corruption are likely to provoke geographically distinct communities and movements to challenge the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country concerned. The impact on fragility is predicted as greatest during monopolistic and dictatorial clientelism. Governance structures of inegalitarian or unjust local traditional authorities are shown to be an important independent factor provoking separatism. Separatist movements are predicted to be left leaning or egalitarian in the beginning of their struggle. As economies grow and shift away from a patronage-based private sector toward a productive one, individuals are likely to be protective of their enterprises and incomes against the aleatory decisions of a clientelist government. Therefore, a substantially enhanced investment in a productive private sector may likely be a better longer term anti-corruption strategy than exclusively focusing on governance, accountability, and accounting measures. |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10473 |
| By: | Kim, Taehee; Shikano, Susumu (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | Recent political psychological studies on intergroup relationships emphasize the crucial role of emotion in attitude formation and change toward outgroups. They also showed that the distinct dimensions of emotion play some differentiated roles. Relying on these findings, we hypothesize that emotion mediates the impact of the crisis event on the attitudes toward foreign countries. We also argue that the impact of emotion can differ along the distinct dimensions. To provide empirical evidence, we focus on the case of Japan in summer 2012, in which the most part of the public experienced international crises with South Korea and China almost simultaneously but in an only mediated and remote way. Our empirical analysis using a panel survey showed that the dimensions of anger and hatred played a crucial role in attitude changes, while the dimension of fear has no direct impact. Further, we also found the other socio-demographic factors and political attitudes were mediated by the relevant dimensions of emotion, but had no direct impact. |
| Date: | 2023–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wv6dp_v1 |