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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Richter, Dirk (Bern University of Applied Sciences); Richter, Mona |
| Abstract: | Democracy is under threat in many countries, particularly from illiberal and right-wing populist parties. This does not reveal a social trend towards conservatism and right-wing to far-right positions among the population of current democracies, as moral and social attitudes are generally becoming increasingly liberalised. The shift to the right is primarily taking place within the political system, where right-wing conservative and illiberal parties are recognising insecurities among the population and taking up certain trigger topics (e.g. migration, climate, gender and identity issues) in order to increase their share of the vote. To put it in economic terms: The shift to the right does not follow a demand from the voting population, but follows a supply by political parties. Political systems can therefore react accordingly and counter populist positions appropriately. Progressive-left parties can do this by ensuring that the issues and positions they launch do not exacerbate social insecurities, while conservative-right parties can do this by maintaining a clear distance from illiberal positions in terms of content and rhetoric. |
| Date: | 2024–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2p38n_v1 |
| By: | von der Heyde, Leah (LMU Munich); Haensch, Anna-Carolina; Wenz, Alexander (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | [For the more comprehensive version of this work, please see https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.08563] The rise of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3 has sparked interest in their potential for creating synthetic datasets, particularly in the realm of privacy research. This study critically evaluates the use of LLMs in generating synthetic public opinion data, pointing out the biases inherent in the data generation process. While LLMs, trained on vast internet datasets, can mimic societal attitudes and behaviors, their application in synthesizing data poses significant privacy and accuracy challenges. We investigate these issues using the case of vote choice prediction in the 2017 German federal elections. Employing GPT-3, we construct synthetic personas based on the German Longitudinal Election Study, prompting the LLM to predict voting behavior. Our analysis compares these LLM-generated predictions with actual survey data, focusing on the implications of using such synthetic data and the biases it may contain. The results demonstrate GPT-3’s propensity to inaccurately predict voter choices, with biases favoring certain political groups and more predictable voter profiles. This outcome raises critical questions about the reliability and ethical use of LLMs in generating synthetic data. |
| Date: | 2023–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:97r8s_v1 |
| By: | Jirjahn, Uwe |
| Abstract: | A series of studies show that unions and works councils have an influence on workers' political activities and attitudes. However, at issue are the transmission channels through which worker representation impacts workers' political activities and attitudes. This article discusses from a theoretical and empirical viewpoint whether the influence of worker representation reflects increased workplace democracy. The article also discusses possible policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Trade Unions, Works Councils, Political Engagement, Party Preferences, Democratic Leadership, Autocratic Leadership |
| JEL: | D70 J51 J53 K31 O35 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1568 |
| By: | Dossi, Gaia; Morando, Marta |
| Abstract: | We study the role of political ideology for a critical group of economic agents: inventors. We document that, in "politically polarizing" fields, inventors patent innovations aligned with their political beliefs. We construct a novel dataset matching data from the US Patent Office (USPTO) with individual Voter Register data for two large US states, and with the universe of US campaign contributions data. We proxy political ideology with individual party affiliation and focus on fields where the ideological distance between Republicans and Democrats is especially large in the general population. We find that, compared to Republicans, Democrats are: i) more likely to file green patents; ii) more likely to file female-health patents, and this persists in the sub-set of male inventors; and iii) less likely to file weapon-related patents. The magnitudes are large and range from one-fourth to one-third of total patent production in these technologies. This pattern is explained by inventors sorting into firms, rather than by within-firm dynamics. Socio-economic status, geography, or differential reactions to monetary incentives cannot explain our findings. Importantly, ideological sorting persists in research organizations, suggesting that inventors may derive intrinsic utility from producing innovation aligned with their beliefs. We rationalize our findings using a stylized model of the labor market where inventors derive amenity value from producing innovation close to their political ideology. |
| Keywords: | political ideology; innovation; inventors |
| JEL: | O30 |
| Date: | 2023–12–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126760 |
| By: | von der Heyde, Leah (LMU Munich); Haensch, Anna-Carolina; Wenz, Alexander (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | UPDATED VERSION AT https://arxiv.org/abs/2407.08563 The recent development of large language models (LLMs) has spurred discussions about whether LLM-generated “synthetic samples” could complement or replace traditional surveys, considering their training data potentially reflects attitudes and behaviors prevalent in the population. A number of mostly US-based studies have prompted LLMs to mimic survey respondents, finding that the responses closely match the survey data. However, several contextual factors related to the relationship between the respective target population and LLM training data might affect the generalizability of such findings. In this study, we investigate the extent to which LLMs can estimate public opinion in Germany, using the example of vote choice as outcome of interest. To generate a synthetic sample of eligible voters in Germany, we create personas matching the individual characteristics of the 2017 German Longitudinal Election Study respondents. Prompting GPT-3 with each persona, we ask the LLM to predict each respondents’ vote choice in the 2017 German federal elections and compare these predictions to the survey-based estimates on the aggregate and subgroup levels. We find that GPT-3 does not predict citizens’ vote choice accurately, exhibiting a bias towards the Green and Left parties, and making better predictions for more “typical” voter subgroups. While the language model is able to capture broad-brush tendencies tied to partisanship, it tends to miss out on the multifaceted factors that sway individual voter choices. Furthermore, our results suggest that GPT-3 might not be reliable for estimating nuanced, subgroup-specific political attitudes. By examining the prediction of voting behavior using LLMs in a new context, our study contributes to the growing body of research about the conditions under which LLMs can be leveraged for studying public opinion. The findings point to disparities in opinion representation in LLMs and underscore the limitation of applying them for public opinion estimation without accounting for the biases in their training data. |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8je9g_v1 |
| By: | KINA, MEHMET FUAT |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes Turkey's political landscape by harnessing Computational Social Science techniques to parse extensive data about public ideologies from the Politus database. Unlike existing theoretical framework that considers ideologies of political elites and cadres, this study examines public ideologies in a contentious political manner. It distills eight most prevalent ideologies down to the city level and employs unsupervised machine learning models. The Principal Component Analysis delineates two fundamental axes, the traditional left-right political spectrum and a separate spectrum of secular-religious inclination, namely political and cultural dimensions. Then, the Cluster Analysis reveals three distinct groups: left-leaning and religiously inclined, right-leaning and religiously inclined, and those with centrist views with a pronounced secular focus. The outcomes provide valuable insights into the political and cultural axes within political society, offering a clearer understanding of the most recent ideological and political climate in Turkey. |
| Date: | 2024–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kp7s2_v1 |
| By: | Cotofan, Maria; Kuralbayeva, Karlygash; Matakos, Konstantinos |
| Abstract: | This study examines how regional temperature variations across OECD countries influence political behavior and support for offset policies. Our analysis reveals that exposure to higher temperatures correlates with political moderation, reduced backing for extreme and populist parties, heightened climate concerns, and increased support for environmentally conscious agendas. These effects are primarily driven by older individuals, who exhibit increased concerns about climate change and the economic costs of climate policies following temperature spikes. Moreover, they express support for policies aimed at mitigating these economic impacts. Conversely, younger individuals show less apprehension about the economic consequences of climate policies and demonstrate readiness to bear them, including through higher energy bills. These findings emphasize the necessity of accounting for age-related perspectives when formulating effective climate policies for the future. |
| Keywords: | preference formation; environmental policies; policy support; voting |
| JEL: | D83 H23 H31 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126818 |
| By: | Maurel, Mathilde; Pernet, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of using the Internet and social networks as sources of information on individuals' understanding of democracy. The analysis draws on data from the sixth round of the Afrobarometer survey, conducted in 2014, across a sample of African countries, some of which are democracies and others non-democracies. This topic has received limited attention in the economic literature, despite its relevance in understanding political preferences and behaviors. The sixth round of the Afrobarometer survey is particularly suited for this analysis, as it is the only wave to include both open-ended and closed-ended questions regarding individuals' understanding of democracy. In this study, we prioritize openended questions as we consider them to better capture individuals' conceptual grasp of democracy. However, we also use closed-ended questions to test the robustness of our results. Open-ended responses are structured and analyzed using the ChatGPT tool to extract meaningful insights. The identification strategy leverages the interaction between lightning activity and 3G coverage. Lightning activity introduces random interruptions in Internet access, creating an exogenous source of variation that enables causal inference. Our results indicate that the bias in understanding democracy induced by reliance on the Internet and social networks as information sources is predominantly negative. This negative bias extends to individuals' perceptions of freedom of expression and institutional corruption in political regimes. Conversely, we find a positive bias regarding perceptions of the fairness of the electoral process. These findings carry significant implications, as we document a positive association between the understanding of democracy and the preference for democratic systems. This suggests that distortions caused by Internet use, which has become a major source of information in Africa, may influence individuals' political preferences and attitudes. |
| Keywords: | Internet news, Democracy, Misunderstanding of Democracy, Africa |
| JEL: | G2 G32 L25 L6 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1571 |
| By: | S Anukriti; Calvi, Rossella; Chakravarty, Abhishek |
| Abstract: | Can effective policy implementation change political selection by inducing voters to prioritize leader competence over other traits, such as gender This paper answers this question by examining the impact of a successful school-expansion program on the likelihood of women being elected to state legislatures in India. The paper shows that the program increased voter prioritization of leader competence over gender, boosting the share of women among candidates and state parliamentarians and the overall capability of elected officials. These findings are consistent with the predictions of a model of candidate self-selection where voters trade off candidate competence with their bias against female leaders. |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10654 |
| By: | Nicole Gorton; Cecile Gaubert; Pablo D. Fajgelbaum; Eduardo Morales; Edouard Schaal |
| Abstract: | How do political preferences shape transportation policy? We study this question in the context of California’s High-Speed Rail (CHSR). Combining geographic data on votes in a referendum on the CHSR with a model of its expected economic benefits, we estimate the weight of economic and non-economic considerations in voters’preferences. Then, comparing the proposed distribution of CHSR stations with alternative placements, we use a revealed-preference approach to estimate policymakers’ preferences for redistribution and popular approval. While voters did respond to expected real-income benefits, non-economic factors were a more important driver of the spatial distribution of voters’ preferences for the CHSR. While the voter-approved CHSR would have led to modest income gains, proposals with net income losses also would have been approved due to political preferences. For the planner, we identify strong preferences for popular approval. A politically-blind planner would have placed the stations closer to dense metro areas in California. |
| Keywords: | political economy, infrastructure, transportation |
| JEL: | H54 P11 R13 R4 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1397 |
| By: | Lee, Jay Euijung; Zanella, Martina |
| Abstract: | We study the dynamic responses of political parties to gender quotas in South Korean municipal councils, a setting with nearly zero women pre-quota. We exploit two unique institutional features: the quota intensity is discontinuous in council size; the quota regulates only one of two election arms. Political parties initially counteract the quota by nominating fewer women in the unregulated arm, but gradually reverse this response over time. Guided by a dynamic model of discrimination, we uncover statistical discrimination with incorrect beliefs about women's competence as the main mechanism driving party behavior. The quota triggers learning through exposure to competent women. |
| Keywords: | gender quota; political parties; discrimination; biased beliefs; learning |
| JEL: | J16 |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126755 |
| By: | George, Siddharth; Rao, Vijayendra; Sharan, M. R. |
| Abstract: | In 1992, the 73rd Amendment to the Indian Constitution created 250, 000 village democracies (called Gram Panchayats) covering 800 million citizens. It mandated regular elections, deliberative spaces, and political reservations for women and disadvantaged castes. The unprecedented variation in democratic experience that emerged from this has resulted in a large body of research that provides insights into the intersection between democracy, governance, and development. This paper reviews this literature, showing that India’s democratic trajectory has been shaped by four broad forces: a 3, 000 year tradition of debate and deliberation, colonial policies, the contrasting ideologies of central players in the formation of modern India—Gandhi and Ambedkar—and the 73rd Amendment. The paper distills key findings from the empirical literature on the effectiveness of local politicians and bureaucrats, political reservations, public finance, deliberative democracy, and service delivery. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for improving the functioning of the Panchayats in India, emphasizing the need for greater devolution and improved local fiscal capacity. It also argues that urban governments in India would benefit from learning from the experience of Gram Panchayats. |
| Date: | 2024–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10793 |
| By: | Furnas, Alexander C; LaPira, Timothy Michael (James Madison University); Wang, Dashun |
| Abstract: | Science, long considered a cornerstone in shaping policy decisions, is increasingly vital in addressing contemporary societal challenges. However, it remains unclear whether science is used differently by policymakers with different partisan commitments. Here we combine large-scale datasets capturing science, policy, and their interactions to systematically examine the partisan differences in the use of science in policy across both the federal government and ideological think tanks in the United States. We find that the use of science in policy documents has featured a steady increase over the last 25 years, highlighting science’s growing relevance in policymaking. However, this marked increase masks stark and systematic partisan differences in the amount, content, and character of science used in policy. Democratic-controlled congressional committees and left-leaning think tanks cite substantially more science, and more impactful science, compared to their Republican and right-leaning counterparts. Moreover, the two factions cite substantively different science, with only about 5% of scientific papers being cited by both parties, underscoring a strikingly low degree of bipartisan engagement with scientific literature. We find that the uncovered large partisan disparities are rather universal across time, scientific fields, policy institutions, and issue areas, and they are not simply driven by differing policy agendas. Probing potential mechanisms, we field an original survey of over 3, 000 political elites and policymakers, finding substantial partisan differences in trust in scientists and scientific institutions, which potentially contribute to the observed disparities in science use. Overall, amidst rising political polarization and science’s increasingly critical role in informing policy, this paper uncovers systematic partisan disparities in the use and trust of science, which may have wide-ranging implications for science and society at large. |
| Date: | 2024–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aep9v_v1 |
| By: | Costa-Font, Joan; Cowell, Frank |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a behavioural explanation for the Brexit referendum result, namely the role of an individual’s inequality aversion (IA). We study whether the referendum result was an “unconsidered Leave” out of people’s low aversion to inequality. We use a representative sample of the UK population fielded in 2017, and analyse the extent to which lottery-based individual IA estimates predict their Brexit vote. We consider alternative potential drivers of IA in both income and health domains; these include risk aversion, alongside socio-economic and demographic characteristics. A greater aversion to income inequality predicts a lower probability of voting for Leave, even when controlling for risk aversion and other drivers of the Brexit vote. However, this effect is only true among men, for whom an increase in income IA by one standard deviation decreases their likelihood of voting for leaving the EU by 5 percentage points which would have reduced the probability of a leave vote, resulting in an overall remain majority in our sample. However, the effect of health inequality aversion is not significantly different from zero. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; inequality aversion; income inequality aversion; health inequality aversion; imaginary grandchild; risk aversion; locus of control |
| JEL: | H10 I18 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126923 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; Beerli, Andreas Jürg; Hangartner, Dominik; Ward, Dalston |
| Abstract: | The main theories explaining electoral backlash against immigration focus on citizens' cultural, economic, and security concerns. We test these predictions in Switzerland, which opened its labor market to neighboring countries in the 2000s. Employing a difference-in-differences design, we document a substantial rise in immigrant workers in Swiss border municipalities after the border opened. This was accompanied by a 6-percentage-point (95% confidence interval: 2--10) increase in support for anti-immigrant parties, equivalent to a 32% rise at the mean. However, we find no adverse effects on citizens' employment, wages, or subjective perceptions of economic, cultural, or security threats. Instead, we describe how far-right parties introduced novel narratives related to overcrowding to advance hostility toward immigrants. We provide evidence that this rhetoric targeted border municipalities, where it had the greatest impact on voters susceptible to political persuasion. Together, these findings suggest that elites can play a role in driving anti-immigrant votes. |
| Date: | 2024–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hgczq_v1 |
| By: | Heath, Rachel; Van Der Weide, Roy |
| Abstract: | Despite evidence that women’s political preferences differ from those of men, women are less likely to participate in political and social discussions on Twitter and other social media. Following recent evidence that in-person social support matters for women’s political participation, women are hypothesized to form similarly supportive communities online. This paper tests this hypothesis using data from Twitter. The collected data comprises 451 hashtags on a broad range of (non-mutually exclusive) topics: social, gender, racial, LGBTQ, religion, youth, education, economic, health, COVID, climate, political, security, entertainment and lifestyle, and the Middle East and Northern Africa. The empirical results indicate that women are more likely to participate when the debate(s) feature female influential voices. This finding supports the potential role of mutual support in bolstering women’s participation in important debates. |
| Date: | 2024–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10769 |
| By: | Gilad, Sharon; Sulitzeanu-Kenan, Raanan (The Hebrew University); Levi-Faur, David |
| Abstract: | The global experience of political polarization, and politicians’ attacks on democratic institutions, render individuals’ identification with the governing coalition, or with its opposition, a likely antecedent of their attraction to work for government organizations. This article examines to what extent individuals’ partisan alignment with the governing coalition, and perceptions of its actions as a threat to democracy, shape attraction to government jobs. Findings are based on a two-stage survey with 1, 861 Israeli panel respondents, aged 21-30, carried out during the government’s attempt to undermine the legal system (hereafter: the Judicial Overhaul), and a follow-up survey experiment with 1, 211 of the respondents. Against the politically neutral explanations of previous research, we show that partisan alignment affects the propensity to choose a job in a government ministry versus other sectors. We find mixed evidence in support of the proposition that perceptions of the Judicial Overhaul as a threat to democracy underlie this effect. |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ufzcj_v1 |
| By: | Gáspár, Attila; Sandström, Alexandra; Watson, Taylor; Wochner, Timo |
| Abstract: | Müller (2023) presents evidence for electoral cycles in macroprudential policy in a sample of 58 countries from 2000 through 2014. Consistent with theoretical arguments, the pattern of looser regulation is larger when election outcomes are uncertain and institutions are weak. In this replication, we first conduct a fully successful computational reproduction, using the provided replication package. We then subject the paper's main results to a series of robustness tests, involving measuring the dependent variable differently, bootstrapping standard errors, and applying different specifications of the main estimations. We also use new data, extending the covered time period, and re-examine the results. We find that the main results are robust to our robustness tests, but vanish using newer data. In an additional analysis, we provide suggestive evidence that the original results are based on rather limited variation in the dependent variable. |
| JEL: | D72 E32 G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:204 |
| By: | Benz, Pierre; Strebel, Michael A.; Di Capua, Roberto; Mach, André |
| Abstract: | Numerous studies have focused on wealth elites’ housing, including their spatial and social exclusiveness. The insertion of the power elite in urban space has, however, largely been left unexplored. By combining positional and residential information on over 7, 400 urban elites, we study how academic, economic, and political elites’ residential patterns have evolved from 1890 to 2000 in the three largest Swiss cities (Basel, Geneva, Zurich). First, we uncover a long-term dynamic of suburbanization, which however does not result in even spatial dispersion: while gradually abandoning center cities, elites do not randomly disperse in the surrounding municipalities. Rather, they tend to settle in very specific areas. Second, we find that spatial differentiation of urban elites’ residences varies across elite categories: economic elites tend to geographically segregate from both academic and political elites over the course of the twentieth century and settle in more privileged areas. At the same time, academic and left political elites, while historically living in distinct neighborhoods, tend to converge at the end of the century, echoing new similarities in their profile. This highlights the importance of studying the urban power elites’ residential patterns in a long-term perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mkaqx_v1 |
| By: | Behr, Daniela Monika; Perrin, Caroline Sabine Marie; Hyland, Marie Caitriona; Trumbic, Tea |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the role that a country’s political economy, civil society organizations, and women’s rights groups play in advancing legal gender equality. The paper draws on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law time-series data, which assesses women’s legal rights across eight domains of their lives, five decades, and 190 economies. The results reveal that higher levels of democracy and a more active civil society are positively associated with advances in legal equality between men and women. The analysis also reveals that, beyond an active civil society more broadly, women’s rights groups specifically are a key ingredient for successfully advancing legal gender reforms. The paper shows that both democracy and civil society play a more prominent role in removing legal restrictions that are placed on women than they do in ensuring rights to enabling provisions, such as the right to maternity leave, and that women’s rights groups seem to be particularly important in this area. Moreover, an active civil society may be more effective in advancing reform in more democratic countries, suggesting that bottom-up and top-down channels are more impactful when operating in tandem. |
| Date: | 2024–06–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10788 |
| By: | Yuping Deng (School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China); Haicheng Wang (Business School, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, P.R. China); Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, Business School, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs web-crawling and sentiment analysis techniques to quantify public opinion and then investigates its effects on Chinese exports to trading partners during 2007-2019. The empirical results show that, after the control of possible reverse causality, negative China-related public opinion is associated with decreased exports. This relationship could be nurtured through three channels namely consumer preference, economic policy uncertainty and political conflicts. Further analysis reveals that the observed relationship is especially prevalent in developed markets and non-participatory countries of the Belt and Road Initiative as well as for industrial and capital-intensive products. In addition, it is found that political relation is positively associated with exports and plays a mitigating role in the negative relationship between public opinion and exports. Our findings have important policy implications. Policy makers are encouraged to think outside the box and exploit soft power of country image to promote exports. |
| Keywords: | China-related public opinion, export, sentiment analysis, political relations |
| JEL: | F14 F19 P16 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:24-03 |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Velasquez, Bradley; Li, Yueju; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Reeping, Paul M; Robinson, Sonia |
| Abstract: | Objective: To determine the extent to which endorsement of racist beliefs, support for violence to effect social change, and approval of extreme right-wing political organizations and movements are associated with support for and willingness to engage in political violence in the United States. Methods: Nationally representative survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel conducted May-June 2022. Primary comparisons were between respondents who strongly agreed and those who did not agree with 5 statements of racist beliefs and 3 statements concerning violence and social change, and between respondents who strongly approved and those who did not approve of 8 named organizations and movements. Principal outcomes were measures of support for and willingness to engage in political violence, expressed as weighted percentages with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results: The completion rate was 55.8%; there were 8, 620 respondents. Half of the respondents (50.5%, 95% CI 49.3%, 51.7%) were female, and 62.6% (95% CI 61.4%, 63.9%) were white, non-Hispanic; the weighted mean (SD) age was 48.4 (18.0) years. Respondents in the 3 strong agreement/strong approval groups were much more likely than those who did not agree/approve to consider violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives; margins ranged from 29.5 percentage points (strong agreement vs non-agreement with racist beliefs) to 63.2 percentage points (strong approval vs non-approval of extreme right-wing political organizations and movements). Nearly 10% of respondents who strongly agreed with statements on violence to effect social change (9.1%, 95% CI, 6.7%, 11, 5%), and nearly 30% of those who strongly approved of the named organizations and movements (29.1%, 95% CI, 18.4%, 39.8%) reported that they would be very or completely willing to kill someone in a situation where they considered political violence to be justified. Conclusions: Endorsement of racist beliefs, support for violence to effect social change, and approval of extreme right-wing political organizations and movements are associated with support for political violence, and the latter two are associated with willingness to engage in political violence—including lethal violence. Such information can deepen our understanding of individual- and group-level risks for political violence and guide prevention measures. |
| Date: | 2023–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c9vtr_v1 |
| By: | Xia, Ziqian; Ye, Jinquan; Debnath, Ramit |
| Abstract: | In this study, we conduct a direct replication of Lorenz-Spreen et al. (2023)'s systematic review on digital media and democracy to verify and enhance the robustness of their findings. We successfully reproduce the main claims of the original paper, uncovering a few minor coding errors that do not affect the study's primary results. Our replication updates the dataset with recent publications up to March 23, 2024. After screening 2, 567 papers, we included 110 that met the original study's criteria. We then replicated the results from original paper and employed topic modeling and word frequency analysis to identify key themes and trends. This replication confirms the original findings and provides an updated perspective on the relationship between digital media and democracy. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:206 |
| By: | Ganly, Rachel; Lehner, Lukas; Nguyen, P. Linh; Sutherland, Alex |
| Abstract: | Weschle (2024) examines the effect of UK legislators taking private sector jobs while holding office on their parliamentary behaviour. The published analysis employs two-way fixed effects and difference-in-differences as an identification strategy. In that analysis, which we were able to computationally reproduce from the data and code provided, the author found that holding a private sector job meant that: (i) overall MPs are 0.1% more likely to rebel against their party, with most of that effect driven by Conservative MPs who are 0.2% more likely to rebel but overall there is a minimal impact on rebellion and this is significant at the 10% level (p 0.069). The original results also show (ii) that 'moonlighting' MPs are also likely to attend more votes, estimated at 2.2% more compared to pre-employment levels (b 0.022, se 0.008, p 0.008), with the result again driven by Conservative MPs (b 0.028, se 0.011, p 0.010). The final set of results show that (iii) overall MPs who are employed are statistically significantly more likely to ask parliamentary questions (b 0.375, se 0.079, p 0.00001, with the effect again concentrated in Conservative MPs who were 60% more likely to ask a parliamentary question following employment (b 0.455, se 0.098, p 0.00001). Overall, the replication package was well-organized, and the analysis could be fully reproduced using the provided cleaned data. Further, the main outcomes proved consistent across a number of robustness checks. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:203 |
| By: | Wintemute, Garen J.; Robinson, Sonia; Crawford, Andrew; Tomsich, Elizabeth A.; Reeping, Paul M; Shev, Aaron; Velasquez, Bradley; Tancredi, Daniel Joseph (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Background: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings. Methods: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022’s Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores. Results: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (± standard deviation) age was 48.5 (±25.9) years. One in 6 (16.1%, 95% CI 15.0%, 17.1%) agreed strongly/very strongly in 2023 that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy, ” a 2.3% decrease from 2022. About 1 in 20 (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States, ” a 7.7% decrease. Of these respondents, 38.4% (95% CI 32.3%, 44.5%) strongly/very strongly agreed that “the United States needs a civil war to set things right.” In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, “I will be armed with a gun” [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and “I will shoot someone with a gun” [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective. Conclusions: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed. |
| Date: | 2024–01–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wy5ez_v1 |