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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Panu Poutvaara; Andreas Graefe |
| Abstract: | Women are severely underrepresented in American politics, especially among Republicans. This underrepresentation may result from women being less willing to run for office, from voter bias against women, or from political structures that make it more difficult for women to compete. Here we show how support for female candidates varies by voters’ party affiliation and gender. We conducted experimental elections in which participants made their vote choices based solely on politicians’ faces. When choosing between female and male candidates, Democrats, and especially Democratic women, preferred female candidates, while Republicans were equally likely to choose female and male candidates. These patterns held after controlling for respondents’ education, age, and political knowledge, and for candidates’ age, attractiveness, and perceived conservatism. Our findings suggest that voter bias against women cannot explain women’s underrepresentation. On the contrary, American voters appear ready to further narrow the gender gap in politics. |
| Keywords: | gender, elections, gender discrimination, political candidates, redistribution |
| JEL: | D72 J16 H23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11414 |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine (CEPII, Paris); Edo, Anthony (CEPII, Paris); Emlinger, Charlotte (CEPII, Paris) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the local effects of trade exposure and immigration on voting behavior in France from 1988 to 2022. We use the content of each candidate's manifesto to construct an anti-globalization voting index for each French presidential election. This index shows a significant increase in the anti-globalization positions of candidates, and a growing anti-globalization vote beyond the far right. We show that increasing local exposure to import competition and immigration increases anti-globalization votes, while increasing export exposure reduces them. We also find that imports have different effects depending on the products imported. While exposure to imports of final goods increases anti-globalization voting, exposure to imports of intermediate goods reduces it. |
| Keywords: | voting, trade, immigration, political economy |
| JEL: | D72 F6 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17353 |
| By: | Sigurd S. Arntzen; Jon H. Fiva; Rune J. Sørensen |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of democratic systems in preventing individuals with criminal backgrounds from holding political office. Unlike many countries, Norway has no legal restrictions against felons running for office. We analyze local election candidates from 2003 to 2019, paired with administrative records of criminal offenses. We demonstrate that individuals with criminal records are systematically penalized at every stage of their political careers. Candidates are less likely to have criminal records than the general population, with elected officials less likely to have criminal backgrounds than their unelected peers, and mayors being the most lawful. Through a series of counterfactual exercises, we demonstrate that the most significant reduction in criminal involvement occurs at the nomination stage, especially within established local party organizations. |
| Keywords: | political selection, criminal backgrounds, voter behaviour, political parties |
| JEL: | D72 D73 J24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11412 |
| By: | Emanuel Ornelas |
| Abstract: | I study how political competition affects the feasibility of free trade agreements (FTAs). I show that the possibility of political turnover creates strategic motivations for the formation of FTAs. Specifically, a government facing a high enough probability of losing power will have an incentive to form a trading bloc to “tie the hands” of its successor. This incentive mitigates inefficiencies in the incumbent’s decision to form FTAs, regardless of its bias toward special interests. An FTA can affect the likelihood of political turnover as well. Accounting for that effect, I show that an incumbent party with a known bias toward special interests could seek an FTA as a commitment device toward less distortionary policies, thereby enhancing its own electoral prospects. Overall, the analysis reveals the importance of considering the time horizon of policymakers when studying their decision to enter in FTAs. |
| Keywords: | regionalism, free trade agreements, political competition, lobbying |
| JEL: | F15 F13 D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11403 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Jacob Edenhofer; Prashant Garg |
| Abstract: | Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83, 000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. |
| Keywords: | local economic conditions, populism, high-street vacancies, spatial externalities |
| JEL: | Z13 R23 D72 C83 P36 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11325 |
| By: | Paola Conconi; Florin Cucu; Federico Gallina; Mattia Nardotto |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) has long been accused of suffering from a “democratic deficit.” The European Parliament (EP), the only EU institution directly elected by citizens, is seen as having limited powers. Moreover, its members (MEPs) are often portrayed as unresponsive to the interests of their constituents due to the second-order nature of European elections: instead of being shaped by EU policies, they are driven by domestic politics. In this paper, we provide evidence against these Eurosceptic arguments using data on a key policy choice made by MEPs: the approval of free trade agreements. First, we show that MEPs are responsive to the trade policy interests of their electorate, a result that is robust to controlling for a rich set of controls, fixed effects, and employing an instrumental variable strategy. Second, we carry out counterfactual exercises demonstrating that the EP’s power to reject trade deals can help explain why only agreements with broad political support reach the floor. Finally, against the idea that European elections are driven solely by domestic politics, we find that the degree of congruence between MEPs’ trade votes and their electorate’s interests affects their re-election chances. |
| Keywords: | EU democratic deficit, European Parliament, roll-call votes, trade agreements |
| JEL: | F13 D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11405 |
| By: | Britto, Diogo (University of Milan Bicocca); Daniele, Gianmarco (Bocconi University); Le Moglie, Marco (Bocconi University); Pinotti, Paolo (Bocconi University); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco) |
| Abstract: | We study the prevalence and effects of individuals with past criminal charges among candidates and elected politicians in Brazil. Individuals with past criminal charges are twice as likely to both run for office and be elected compared to other individuals. This pattern persists across political parties and government levels, even when controlling for a broad set of observable characteristics. Randomized anti-corruption audits reduce the share of mayors with criminal records, but only when conducted in election years. Using a regression discontinuity design focusing on close elections, we demonstrate that the election of mayors with criminal backgrounds leads to higher rates of underweight births and infant mortality. Additionally, there is an increase in political patronage, particularly in the health sector, which is consistent with the negative impacts on local public health outcomes. |
| Keywords: | politicians, crime, audits, policies, patronage |
| JEL: | K42 J45 P16 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17328 |
| By: | Di Cocco, Jessica (European University Institute); Levi, Eugenio (Link Campus University); Mariani, Rama Dasi (Roma Tre University); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | Existing research has identified several economic and cultural determinants of populist voting. We focus on a related explanation: whether populist leaders are able to capitalize on a sense of distrust between individuals. There is currently limited causal evidence on the relationship between interpersonal trust and support for populist parties, and the underlying mechanisms driving this relationship are not well understood. Using three distinct causal identification strategies, each grounded in different assumptions, we find consistent evidence that a deficit in trust significantly bolsters support for populist political parties throughout Europe. Notably, this influence extends beyond ideological boundaries, encompassing both far-right and far-left populist parties. |
| Keywords: | populism, trust, immigration |
| JEL: | D72 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17342 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick & Bonn and affiliated with CEPR, CAGE, NIESR, ECONtribute, Grantham Institute.); Edenhofer, Jacob (University of Oxford); Garg, Prashant (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83, 000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. |
| Keywords: | Local Economic Conditions, Populism, High-street Vacancies, Unemployment, Urban Transformation JEL Classification: D72, R11, R12, R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:716 |
| By: | M. Hashem Pesaran; Hayun Song |
| Abstract: | This document is a follow up to the paper by Ahmed and Pesaran (2020, AP) and reports state-level forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election. It updates the 3, 107 county level data used by AP and uses the same machine learning techniques as before to select the variables used in forecasting voter turnout and the Republican vote shares by states for 2024. The models forecast the non-swing states correctly but give mixed results for the swing states (Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia). Our forecasts for the swing states do not make use of any polling data but confirm the very close nature of the 2024 election, much closer than AP’s predictions for 2020. The forecasts are too close to call. |
| Keywords: | voter turnout, popular and electoral college votes, simultaneity and recursive identification, high dimensional forecasting models, Lasso, OCMT |
| JEL: | C53 C55 D72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11415 |
| By: | Sinha, Pankaj; Kumar, Amit; Biswas, Sumana; Gupta, Chirag |
| Abstract: | The outcome of the US presidential election is one of the most significant events that impacts trade, investment, and geopolitical policies on the global stage. It also sets the direction of the world economy and global politics for the next few years. Hence, it is of prime importance not just for the American population but also to shape the future well-being of the masses worldwide. Therefore, this study aims to forecast the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate in the Presidential election of 2024. The study applies the regularization-based machine learning algorithm of Lasso to select the most important economic and non-economic indicators influencing the electorate. The variables identified by lasso were further used with lasso (regularization), random forest (bagging) and gradient boosting (boosting) techniques of machine learning to forecast the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate in the 2024 US Presidential election. The findings suggest that June Gallup ratings, average Gallup ratings, scandal ratings, oil price indicator, unemployment indicator and crime rate impact the popular vote share of the incumbent party candidate. The prediction made by Lasso emerges as the most consistent estimate of the popular vote share forecast. The lasso-based prediction model forecasts that Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party candidate, will receive a popular vote share of 47.04% in the 2024 US Presidential Election. |
| Keywords: | US Presidential Election, Machine Learning, Lasso, Random Forest |
| JEL: | C1 C10 C15 C6 C63 G0 |
| Date: | 2024–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122490 |
| By: | Hessami, Zohal (Ruhr University Bochum); Schirner, Sebastian (Ruhr University Bochum) |
| Abstract: | We study whether the arrival of a new immigrant wave changes natives' acceptance of former immigrants and their descendants. We exploit the 2015 European refugee crisis and the context of German open-list local council elections where voting for immigrant-origin candidates represents a consequential revealed preference. We combine hand-collected candidate-level election data with administrative asylum seeker data. Continuous difference-in-differences estimations (based on municipal %∆ in asylum seekers) reveal that immigrant-origin candidates receive more votes the more asylum seekers arrived locally. This shift in social group boundaries is driven by candidates with a Southern/Eastern European origin being culturally similar to Germans. |
| Keywords: | immigration, immigrant-origin candidates, local elections, social acceptance, cultural similarity |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J11 J15 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17343 |
| By: | Dautović, Ernest; Hsieh, Robin |
| Abstract: | The phenomenon of political populism and its financial determinants have proved elusive. We utilise the sudden and uneven change in credit conditions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the unprecedented government credit guarantee programme in France to investigate whether liquidity support to firms affects political preferences. Drawing on credit registry data – which provides the universe of loans and credit lines to firms – we build a postcode-municipality-level dataset and show that government-guaranteed credit reduced the support for the far right but increased it for the incumbent. The underlying economic channel shows that credit guarantees preserved employment, which in turn influenced political preferences. Effects are driven by microenterprises, predominantly self-employed businesses in which the employee-owner-voter is fully aware of the government financial support, i.e., where government support is more salient. This study does not aim to evaluate policies to address the popularity of populist politics. JEL Classification: D72, E44, G18, G21, H81 |
| Keywords: | credit, firms, fiscal policy, government guarantees, populism |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242993 |
| By: | Pei Kuang; Michael Weber; Shihan Xie |
| Abstract: | We conduct a survey experiment with a large, politically representative sample of U.S. consumers (5, 205 participants) to study how perceptions of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) political stance shape macroeconomic expectations and trust in the Fed. The public is divided on the Fed’s political leaning: most Republican-leaning consumers believe the Fed favors Democrats, whereas most Democrat-leaning consumers perceive the Fed as favoring Republicans. Consumers who perceive the Fed as aligned with their political affiliations tend to (1) have a more positive outlook on current and future economic conditions and express higher trust in the institution, (2) show greater willingness to pay for and are more likely to receive Fed communications, and (3) assign significantly more weight to Fed communications when updating their inflation expectations. Strong in-group favoritism generally amplifies these effects. Finally, if Trump were elected U.S. president, consumers would overwhelmingly view the Fed as favoring Republicans. The proportion of consumers viewing the Fed as an in-group would remain stable, but its composition would shift: Democrat-leaning consumers would see the Fed as less of an in-group, whereas more Republican-leaning consumers would perceive it in this way. Likewise, overall public trust in the Fed would remain steady, but trust among Democrat-leaning consumers would decline significantly, whereas it would rise among Republican-leaning consumers. |
| JEL: | D72 D83 D84 E31 E7 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33071 |
| By: | Beacham, Austin; Hafner-Burton, Emilie M; Schneider, Christina J |
| Abstract: | The rapid spread of information and communication technologies across and within borders has been an important feature of the contemporary era, with the Internet at its core. Until recently, the widespread belief was that the Internet would be beneficial for the spread and resilience of democracy. This common wisdom has become increasingly contested, as political actors in democracies and autocracies alike have learned to use the Internet to maneuver information to enhance government popularity and suppress or delegitimate the opposition. We argue that open information access can be weaponized to reduce democratic resilience when duly elected leaders with anti-pluralist aspirations harness them to increase political polarization. We test the empirical implications of our theory with a mixed-methods approach that combines a large-N quantitative comparative analysis of democratic backsliding in 97 democracies after the Cold War with a typical case study of democratic resilience in India to trace the underlying causal mechanisms of the theory. Together, the findings indicate that with growing access to the Internet has come the increased likelihood of democratic backsliding, especially when anti-pluralist parties use it to increase polarization and executive power. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Internet, democracy, information, social media, backsliding, populism |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt6f24q81x |
| By: | Sayantan Ghosal; Lukasz Woźny |
| Abstract: | Although a Condorcet winner commands a majority in its favor, there is no guarantee of unanimity. In a Lindahl equilibrium, a suitably chosen system of personalized transfers and prices ensures unanimity, but there is no guarantee of a majority vote in its favor. Do Lindahl equilibria decentralize Condorcet winners? In a setting where voters’ preferences are satiated, characterized by bliss points, this paper proposes a new balancedness condition which is satisfied when a Condorcet winner lies within the interior of the convex hull of voters’ bliss points. We show that such a political compromise between the most preferred policies of different voter types can be decentralized as Lindahl equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Bliss points; Condorcet winner; Lindahl equilibria, balancedness. |
| JEL: | D50 D61 D71 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2024_08 |
| By: | Daria Denti (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alessandra Faggian (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | Intimate Partner Homicides (IPHs) represent the ultimate violence against women driven by gender bias, yet evidence on their determinants is scarce. We address this gap by empirically investigating whether IPHs are affected by local female political empowerment, a recognized manifestation of gender norms. This argument is evaluated in two empirical studies addressing Italy, where IPHs increased by 20% in ten years. The analysis is enabled by a unique microregional dataset of female homicides, that contains exclusively data on gender-motivated murders. First, we measure whether places with more women in local council have less IPHs and find that electing more councilwomen reduces IPHs, while electing more female mayors does not. Instrumental variable estimation supports these results not being biased by endogeneity issues. Second, given the crucial role of councilwomen in countering IPHs identified in the first study, we measure the extent of IPH reduction which results from the introduction of gender quotas in the election of council members. Staggered difference-in-difference estimates show that gender quotas increase elected councilwomen, who in turn lower IPHs. While the effect of gender quotas on councilwomen appears stable, the one on IPHs declines after some years, suggesting the occurrence of a cultural backlash against gender-equal norms. Collectively, this research supports exposure to women in local politics as relevant to counter prejudices and reduced IPHs |
| Keywords: | Domestic violence, cultural norms, persistence, gender quotas |
| JEL: | I1 J12 J16 K16 N53 Z1 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp45 |
| By: | Nurfatima Jandarova (Tampere University, Finnish Centre of Excellence in Tax Systems Research (FIT)); Aldo Rustichini (University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Political behavior of citizens includes political participation and preferences. We show with UK data that political behavior is affected by individual characteristics that are also determining educational attainment, including cognitive abilities and intelligence. Our analysis reconciles the rational choice assumption with the acquisition of costly political information, which would otherwise give only negligible benefits. We disentangle the causal pathways by identifying effects operating directly and those operating indirectly, in particular through education and income. We address the issue of endogeneity of cognitive skills using polygenic scores, and show that an important component of the causal factors is genetic. |
| Keywords: | political participation, party preferences, human capital, intelligence, individual characteristics, polygenic score |
| JEL: | D72 I25 J31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fit:wpaper:25 |