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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Haiges, Lea; Zuber, Christina Isabel |
| Abstract: | While indigenous movements often keep a deliberate distance from their states, political connections can be important to effect policy change. How do indigenous organizations navigate this challenge? This article analyses the electoral strategies of 19 indigenous organizations during elections in Ecuador and Peru. The analysis draws on an original data-set of organizational communication on social media, complemented with semi-structured interviews conducted during field work. We find that most organizations engage actively with elections. Aside from a more expected strategy of protesting election outcomes, they also call on followers to vote and actively mobilize in favor or against certain candidates, participating within, rather than against the state. An allied indigenous party (Pachakutik in Ecuador) does not explain organizations' engagement with elections per se, but it does affect the rationale for choosing one or the other strategy: organizational reasons dominated in Ecuador, while shared identity was most important in Peru. |
| Keywords: | indigenous movements, social movements, electoral campaign, socialmedia, Ecuador, Peru |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300841 |
| By: | Nils D. Steiner (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany); Sven Hillen (Johannes-Gutenberg University, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This contribution studies voting intentions for the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) from a policy-space perspective. What makes the new German party special is its unusual bundling of economically left-wing with culturally right-wing positions. We turn to survey data from March 2024 (GLES Tracking T57) to assess how this bundling is reflected in the positions of their supporters. Distinguishing between an economic policy dimension, a transnational dimension and a traditional morality dimension, we find that the probability of intending to vote for the BSW increases with more left-wing economic positions and with more nationalist positions. Conservative positions on traditional morality are not meaningfully associated with the overall probability of a BSW vote but make it more likely to support BSW rather than the Greens and less likely to support BSW relative to the AfD. We conclude that the policy-space perspective holds potential to understand the party’s early success, but that its voters are better characterized as ‘left-nationalists’ than ‘left-conservatives’. |
| Keywords: | BSW; German politics, issue voting; policy space. |
| Date: | 2024–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2413 |
| By: | Christopher Blattman; Horacio Larreguy; Benjamin Marx; Otis Reid |
| Abstract: | We study a large-scale intervention designed by civil society organizations to reduce vote buying in Uganda’s 2016 elections. We study this intervention in light of a model where incumbents benefit from a first-mover and valence advantage, vote buying and campaigning are complementary, and voter reciprocity increases the effectiveness of vote buying. The intervention undermined reciprocity as well as the valence advantage of incumbents. As a result, challengers not only campaigned more intensively but also bought more votes in treated locations. Consistent with incumbents being first movers in markets for votes and facing more frictions to adjust their strategies than challengers, their response to the intervention was limited. The intervention ultimately failed to reduce vote buying, but led to short-run electoral gains for challengers and increased service delivery in treated locations. |
| Keywords: | elections, voting behaviour, field experiment, Africa |
| JEL: | C93 D72 O55 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11247 |
| By: | Horn, Alexander; Haselmayer, Martin; Klüser, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Do parties respond to inequality? Despite the growing relevance of economic disparities and their negative political and societal consequences, our understanding of party competition over redistribution remains limited. Thus far, research had to rely on broad salience scores of socio-economic positions from party manifestos rather than parties' distinct stances on (economic) inequality. To tackle this limitation, we introduce a novel (Varieties of Egalitarianism) dataset on party stances on economic inequality, equal chances, and equal rights for OECD countries over five decades (1970-2020). We demonstrate that responsiveness found in previous studies is driven by non-economic equality concepts. We then re-assess the impact of "inequality" on party responsiveness. Theoretically, we question (left) parties' responsiveness to levels of inequality. Low visibility of levels and system justification beliefs undermine the mobilization of those voters most in need of redistribution. As a result of the electoral disincentives, left parties do not emphasize economic equality. By contrast, rising inequality is visible and poses a real electoral threat that left parties should address via economic egalitarianism. In line with these rationales, we find that 1) (left) parties do not respond to inequality levels but 2) left parties do respond to increases in inequality when their below-median core groups fall behind. In the concluding discussion; we argue that our results suggest that a ratchet pattern could stabilize entrenched inequality. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300854 |
| By: | Stutzmann, Sophia |
| Abstract: | Climate policies can have adverse social and economic effects on affected citizens. Against this backdrop, understanding the conditions under which electoral support or backlash to such policies occurs is crucial. In this paper, I set out to shed light on this issue by empirically analysing the electoral repercussions of the coal phase-out in Germany. By employing a series of fixed-effects models, I investigate whether the closures of coal plants and mines between 2007 and 2022 affected voting behaviour at the municipality level. I find that closures result in lower vote shares for the Social Democratic Party and higher abstention rates in affected municipalities. These findings document a punishment of the long-time issue owner and point towards the role of economic grievances in curbing political engagement. With the high politicisation around the issue of fossil fuel energy generation, these findings have important implications for the remaining coal phase-outs worldwide. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300836 |
| By: | Jansesberger, Viktoria |
| Abstract: | Do sudden weather disasters in cities of the Global South increase the likelihood of anti-government protests? In cities of the Global South, floods, storms, and landslides strain already fragile infrastructure, often leading to destruction and hardship. While urban residents occasionally protest in response to such dire conditions, they often do not. Thus, this paper addresses the question of when this is more likely to occur. I argue that sudden destructive weather events spark anti-government protests if they coincide with upcoming elections as organizing protests can serve as a strategy by political actors to gain attention and mobilize voters. Given the increased public attention, citizens might furthermore consider it a good time to voice their dissatisfaction. I test this hypothesis using novel self-compiled protest data on 19 Indian metropolises (2000-2019). Quantitative regression analyses on samples pre-processed with Coarsened Exact Matching and insights from illustrative examples yield robust support for the argument. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300838 |
| By: | Francisca M. Antman; Brian Duncan |
| Abstract: | Political discourse has often stoked racial and ethnic divisions, raising the possibility that individuals’ self-reported racial and ethnic identities may change in response to an increasingly hostile environment. We shed light on this question by measuring the impacts of local support for California’s Proposition 187, one of the first and most well-known ballot measures widely seen to be anti-immigrant and anti-Latino, on individuals’ willingness to identify ethnically as Hispanic and specifically, Mexican. Linking data on self-reported ethnicity, ancestry, and parental place of birth with county-level voter support for Proposition 187, we show that individuals with stronger ties to Mexican ancestry or parentage are less likely to identify ethnically as Mexican in response to support for Proposition 187, just as individuals with weaker ties to Mexican ancestry are more likely to identify as Mexican. This is consistent with our predictions that anti-minority sentiment may drive individuals with more observable ties to a minority group to reduce their willingness to identify due to heightened fear of discrimination and hostility. At the same time, anti-minority sentiment may raise the salience of ethnicity and race and thus increase the willingness to identify as a minority for those with weaker observable ties, who are relatively more protected from adverse impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to document a connection between political discourse and endogenous ethnic identity. |
| JEL: | D72 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32818 |
| By: | Raymond Fisman; Matteo F. Ferroni; Miriam Golden |
| Abstract: | We conduct parallel surveys of legislators and citizens in three countries to study their tolerance for corruption. In Italy, Colombia, and Pakistan legislators and citizens respond similarly to hypothetical scenarios involving trade-offs between, for example, probity and efficiency: both perceive corruption as undesirable but prevalent. These novel descriptive data further reveal that legislators generally have accurate beliefs about public opinion on corruption and understand its relevance to voters. An informational treatment updates legislators’ beliefs about public opinion. The treatment produces downward adjustments among legislators who initially overestimated citizens’ anti-corruption preferences. We also present descriptive data that tolerance of corruption is predicted by politician attributes, most notably motivations for entering politics. Finally, results reconfirm partisan bias by voters in evaluations of corruption. Overall, results suggest that barriers to effective anti-corruption policies are unlikely to lie with lack of information by legislators or by their deliberate commitment to corrupt activities. |
| JEL: | D72 D73 D78 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32825 |
| By: | Klatt, Nikolina |
| Abstract: | How do judicial decisions influence political discourse, particularly in areas as contentious as abortion rights? This study investigates how the overturning of Roe v. Wade affected the narrative strategies of U.S. representatives on social media, focusing on variations by party affiliation and geography. While there is literature on the influence of judicial decisions on public opinion and policy, the effect on political narratives remains underexplored. To address this gap, the study analyzes 5, 293 tweets from U.S. representatives in 2022 by supervised text classification and statistical modeling to identify shifts in narrative strategies. The study found the leaked opinion draft acted as a catalyst, which prompted an increase in stories of decline-narratives that emphasize a worsening situation-particularly for Republicans. This study provides empirical evidence of how political narratives evolve in response to landmark judicial changes and insights into the strategic use of narratives by political actors in digital communication. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbtod:301155 |
| By: | Eleonora Alabrese; Francesco Capozza; Prashant Garg |
| Abstract: | The study measures scientists’ polarization on social media and its impact on public perceptions of their credibility. Analyzing 98, 000 scientists on Twitter from 2016 to 2022 reveals significant divergence in expressed political opinions. An experiment assesses the impact of online political expression on a representative sample of 1, 700 U.S. respondents, who rated vignettes with synthetic academic profiles varying scientists’ political affiliations based on real tweets. Politically neutral scientists are viewed as the most credible. Strikingly, on both the ’left’ and ’right’ sides of politically neutral, there is a monotonic penalty for scientists displaying political affiliations: the stronger their posts, the less credible their profile and research are perceived, and the lower the public’s willingness to read their content. The penalty varies with respondents’ political leanings. |
| Keywords: | Twitter, trust in science, ideological polarization, affective polarization, online experiment |
| JEL: | A11 C93 D72 D83 D91 I23 Z10 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11254 |
| By: | Ziho Park |
| Abstract: | A large body of literature in economics and political science examines the impact of democracy and political freedoms on various outcomes using cross-country comparisons. This paper explores the possibility that any positive impact of democracy observed in these studies might be attributed to powerful democratic nations, their allies, and international organizations treating democracies more favorably than nondemocracies, a concept I refer to as democratic favor channel. Firstly, after I control for being targeted by sanctions from G7 or the United Nations and having military confrontations and cooperation with the West, most of the positive effects of democracy on growth in cross-country panel regressions become insignificant or negatively significant. Secondly, using the same empirical specification as this literature for demonstrating intermediating forces, I show that getting sanctioned, militarily attacked, and not having defense cooperation with the West are plausible channels through which democracy causes growth. Lastly, in the pre-Soviet-collapse period, which coincides with the time when democracy promotion was less often used as a justification for sanctions, the impact of democracy on GDP per capita is already weak or negative without any additional controls, and it becomes further negative once democratic favor is controlled. These findings support the democratic favor channel and challenge the idea that the institutional qualities of democracy per se lead to desirable outcomes. The critique provided in this paper applies to the broader comparative institutions literature in social sciences and political philosophy. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.05059 |
| By: | Yoichi Hizen; Kazuya Kikuchi; Yukio Koriyama; Takehito Masuda |
| Abstract: | We experimentally study voter turnout in two-tier elections when the electorate consists of multiple groups, such as states. Votes are aggregated within the groups by the winner-take-all rule or the proportional rule, and the group-level decisions are combined to determine the winner. We observe that, compared with the theoretical prediction, turnout is significantly lower in the minority camp (the Titanic effect) and significantly higher in the majority camp (the behavioral bandwagon effect), and these effects are stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. As a result, the distribution of voter welfare becomes more unequal than theoretically predicted, and this welfare effect is stronger under the proportional rule than under the winner-take-all rule. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.00265 |
| By: | Tamar Zeilberger |
| Abstract: | Existing research has established that autocrats offer concessions to prevent ouster by their inner circle. This paper examines how those concessions are influenced by the relative uncertainty of an autocrat's inner circle about remaining in that favored body. I take as my starting point the formal model of political survival presented in Bueno de Mesquita et al.'s The Logic of Political Survival. I extend the model to account for variation in the relative uncertainty of an autocrat's inner circle. To make the math tractable, I dispense with convention and introduce comparative statics across two models with different formulations of uncertainty. This exercise reveals a set of conditions under which to expect an increase in the concessions offered by an autocrat, with implications for development and democracy. Those findings yield a corresponding set of logical corollaries with potential to further our understanding of authoritarian politics, including an unexamined facet of the "dictator's dilemma" (Wintrobe 1990, 1998) and related incentives for members of an inner circle to permit purges or act to destabilize their ranks. The models also identify a source of policy volatility not found outside of autocracies. Taken together, the findings suggest a need for more research on elite uncertainty in autocracies. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.01887 |
| By: | Rueß, Stefanie; Schneider, Gerald; Vogler, Jan |
| Abstract: | Does the priming of street-level bureaucrats with negative news stories on immigration influence their decisions regarding unemployment benefits? Previous research has established that regional-level peer pressure on public employees and the national-level salience of immigration debates intensify bureaucratic discrimination. By synthesizing the media framing and bureaucratic discrimination literatures, we expect that the priming of street-level bureaucrats with a news frame about welfare fraud committed by ethnic minorities leads to discriminatory practices. To investigate the validity of our theoretical propositions, we conducted a preregistered conjoint experiment with a large dataset, namely a representative survey of German street-level bureaucrats working in unemployment offices. We observe negative discrimination against Romanian claimants after exposure to a negative article, even when they provide internally consistent applications, but not toward Moroccan claimants. These effects are particularly pronounced among caseworkers leaning to the political right and living in federal states whose populations exhibit strong anti-immigration attitudes. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:301151 |
| By: | Ganga, Paula |
| Abstract: | What are the consequences of electing populist leaders? This question is of continued importance as populist leaders challenge elections and impact politics across the world. While the consequences of populist electoral victories on democratic processes have been widely examined, other arenas are still being explored. The environmental policies of populist leaders are particularly important as climate change affects an increasing number of people on a global level. In this paper I show how populist radical right leaders respond to this global crisis by doubling down on economic nationalism and prioritizing national goals of development and claiming that fighting climate change is a Western imposition on domestic politics. I use a mixed methods approach that employs the most complete global data on populist leaders and their environmental stances as well as the case study of Hungary to show how populism doubles down on economic nationalism in the environmental arena. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Populism in government, ideology, environment, policy |
| Date: | 2023–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt15q5794k |
| By: | Aroyehun, Segun Toafeek; Simchon, Almog; Carrella, Fabio; Lasser, Jana; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Garcia, David |
| Abstract: | Pursuit of honest and truthful decision-making is crucial for governance and accountability in democracies. However, people sometimes take different perspectives of what it means to be honest and how to pursue truthfulness. Here we explore a continuum of perspectives from evidence-based reasoning, rooted in ascertainable facts and data, at one end, to intuitive decisions that are driven by feelings and subjective interpretations, at the other. We analyze the linguistic traces of those contrasting perspectives in Congressional speeches from 1879 to 2022. We find that evidence-based language has continued to decline since the mid-1970s, together with a decline in legislative productivity. The decline was accompanied by increasing partisan polarization in Congress and rising income inequality in society. Results highlight the importance of evidence-based language in political decision-making. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:300837 |
| By: | Debre, Maria J; Sommerer, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Democratization scholars are currently debating if we are indeed witnessing a third wave of autocratization. While this has led to an extensive debate about the future of the liberal international order, we still know relatively little about the consequences of autocratization for international organizations (IOs). In this article, we explore to what extent autocratization has led to changes in the composition of IO membership. We propose three different ways of conceptualizing autocratization of IO membership. We argue that we should move away from a dichotomous understanding of regime type and regime change, but rather focus on composition of sub-regime types to understand current developments. We build on updated membership data for 73 IOs through 2020 to map membership configurations based on the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. Contrary to current debates on the crisis of the liberal order, we find that many IOs are not (yet) affected by broad autocratization of their membership that would endanger democratic majorities or overall democratic densities. However, we also observe the disappearance of formerly homogenous democratic clubs due to democratic backsliding in a number of European and Latin American IO member states, as well as a return of autocratic clubs in Southeast Asia and Southern Africa. These findings have important implications for the broader research agenda on international democracy promotion and human right protection as well as the study of legitimacy and the effectiveness of international organizations. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Autocracy, democracy, international organizations, international liberal order |
| Date: | 2023–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt7g9450nx |