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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Marco Di Cataldo (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics); Elena Renzullo (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The EU Cohesion Policy, with its ability to influence the socio-economic trajectories of European regions and cities, also has the potential to shape the political preferences of citizens. While some evidence exists regarding the impact of EU funds on national electoral outcomes, their role for local elections remains largely unexplored, overlooking the inherently territorial nature of Cohesion Policy and the pivotal role played by local policymakers in its activation and implementation. This study leverages detailed administrative data on European development projects to investigate the impact of EU funds on the political support for local incumbent politicians in Italy. It studies the relationship between the inflow of European funds and the probability of re-election for Italian mayors, considering different project types that reflect the mayors’ ability to attract European funds. The results reveal that Cohesion Policy plays a critical role in shaping local voting behaviours. Larger and more visible projects significantly increase the chances of mayoral re election. Moreover, local contexts characterised by faster growth, where EU projects effectively improve municipal public services, witness the greatest electoral gains for incumbents. These results underscore the importance of the design, visibility, and effectiveness of local development projects in determining the political impact of EU redistributive policies. |
| Keywords: | EU Cohesion Policy, incumbent re-election, political preferences, redistribution, local voting behaviour |
| JEL: | D72 I38 H7 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:02&r=pol |
| By: | Luca Bellodi; Frederic Docquier; Stefano Iandolo; Massimo Morelli; Riccardo Turati |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of local exposure to populism on net population movements by citizenship status, gender, age and education level in the context of Italian municipalities. We present two research designs to estimate the causal effect of populist attitudes and politics. Initially, we use a combination of collective memory and trigger variables as an instrument for the variation in populist vote shares across national elections. Subsequently, we apply a regression discontinuity design to estimate the effect of electing a populist mayor on population movements. We establish three converging findings. First, the exposure to both populist attitudes and policies, as manifested by the vote share of populist parties in national election or the closeelection of a new populist mayor, reduces the attractiveness of municipalities, leading to larger population outflows. Second, the effect is particularly pronounced among young, female, and highly educated natives, who tend to relocate across Italian municipalities rather than internationally. Third, we do not find any effect on the foreign population. Our results highlight a foot-voting mechanism that may contribute to a political polarization in Italian municipalities. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Human Capital, Populism, Italian Politics |
| JEL: | D72 F22 F52 J61 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24216&r=pol |
| By: | Danie Ferreira (Faculty of Business and Economic Science, Nelson Mandela University, South Africa Author-2-Name: Marlé van Eyk Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Economic Science, Nelson Mandela University, South Africa Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - The aim of this study is to create a hypothesised model of political brand elements that can influence voters' preference. Theoretical testing is used in analysing the research subject of this paper. Methodology/Technique - The qualitative research method was employed and the exploratory research design was used. A hypothesised model aids in theory building and presents a graphic representation of the exploratory research findings. Trustworthiness of the research was confirmed through credibility, transferability, dependability and confirmability. Findings - Awareness, party campaign, brand trust, leader's image, party brand image and brand association were identified as political brand elements that may influence voting preference. Novelty - The significance of identifying the political brand elements that can potentially influence voter preference will add to existing literature which will assist researchers and political parties in understanding how political supporters make their voting decision. In addition, the hypothesised model of the study can be tested quantitatively in future studies. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Political branding, Marketing, Politics, Qualitative, Hypothesised model |
| JEL: | M39 M31 D72 P16 |
| Date: | 2023–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr320&r=pol |
| By: | Hausladen, Carina I.; Hu, Shiang-Hung; Levin, Joel M. |
| Abstract: | Bouton et al. (2022) compare the properties of majority run-off and plurality rule elections in a laboratory setting, focusing on Duverger's prediction that plurality rule leads to higher levels of strategic voting. They produce a causal estimate of the difference in incidence of strategic voting across systems, finding more strategic voting under the plurality rule. However, they find that coordination is only higher under the plurality rule when voters are sufficiently divided over which candidate they prefer. They conclude that differences in electoral outcomes and voters' welfare are modest. We are able to computationally reproduce the original study's main findings using the authors' replication package. The replication package contained both raw data and a cleaned dataset, but did not include a script for cleaning the raw data or a codebook to make sense of it. Therefore, the majority of our work focused on producing code to evaluate and clean the authors' raw data. The authors sent a very helpful response to an earlier draft of this report and their communication improved the quality of our replication effort. |
| Keywords: | Majority run-off system, Plurality rule, Duverger's prediction, Voting behavior, Sincere voting |
| JEL: | C92 D70 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:99&r=pol |
| By: | Asatryan, Zareh; Baskaran, Thushyanthan; Birkholz, Carlo; Hufschmidt, Patrick |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the extent to which ministers engage in regional favoritism. We are the first to provide a comprehensive analysis of a larger set of the governing elite, not just focusing on the primary leader. We hand-collect birthplaces of this governing elite globally. Combining this information with extended night-time luminosity and novel population data over the period from 1992 to 2016, we utilize a staggered difference-in-differences estimator and find that birthplaces of ministers globally emit on average roughly 7% more nightlight. We do not find evidence that this is driven by, or induces migration to their home regions. The size of our data set lets us investigate heterogeneities along a number of dimensions: political power, ministerial portfolio, and the institutional setting. |
| Keywords: | Favoritism, elite capture, spatiality, luminosity, population, democracy |
| JEL: | D72 H72 H77 R11 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:280926&r=pol |
| By: | de Haan, Jakob; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Yu, Shu |
| Abstract: | The widening of fiscal deficits during democratic elections is well established. We examine a broader set of fiscal outcomes around elections for a large set of emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), probe for differences between democracies and non-democracies, and estimate the degree to which fiscal deteriorations are unwound after elections. We show three patterns. First, primary deficits rise statistically significantly during elections, by 0.6 percentage points of GDP. Primary spending, especially on the government wage bill, also rises statistically significantly, and indirect tax revenues fall. Second, these deteriorations occur in democracies and non-democracies alike. Third, the deterioration in primary deficits is not unwound after elections and the deterioration in primary spending is partially unwound after the election, mainly through cuts in capital spending. These patterns imply that deficits in EMDEs ratchet up over the course of several election cycles. Over time, this can threaten the sustainability of public finances. Finally, we find that better institutional quality (such as strong fiscal rules) and the presence of an IMF program partly mitigate the impact of elections on fiscal positions. |
| Keywords: | political budget cycles; emerging and developing countries; democracies; autocracies |
| JEL: | D72 E62 H62 O10 |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119551&r=pol |
| By: | Anselm Hager (Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin); Lukas Hensel (University of Oxford); Johannes Hermle (University of California, Berkeley); Christopher Roth (University of Cologne and ECONtribute) |
| Abstract: | Are political activists driven by instrumental motives such as making a career in politics or mobilizing voters? We implement two natural field experiments in which party activists are randomly informed that canvassing is i) effective at mobilizing voters, or ii) effective for enhancing activists’ political careers. We find no effect of the treatments on activists’ intended and actual canvassing behavior. The null finding holds despite a successful manipulation check and replication study, high statistical power, a natural field setting, and an unobtrusive measurement strategy. Using an expert survey, we show that the null finding shifted Bayesian posterior beliefs about the treatment’s effectiveness toward zero. The evidence thus casts doubt on two popular hypothesized instrumental drivers of political activism—voter persuasion and career concerns—and points toward expressive benefits as more plausible motives. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:274&r=pol |
| By: | Bauer, Kevin; Chen, Yan; Hett, Florian; Kosfeld, Michael |
| Abstract: | How does group identity affect belief formation? To address this question, we conduct a series of online experiments with a representative sample of individuals in the US. Using the setting of the 2020 US presidential election, we find evidence of intergroup preference across three distinct components of the belief formation cycle: a biased prior belief, avoidance of outgroup information sources, and a belief-updating process that places greater (less) weight on prior (new) information. We further find that an intervention reducing the salience of information sources decreases outgroup information avoidance by 50%. In a social learning context in wave 2, we find participants place 33% more weight on ingroup than outgroup guesses. Through two waves of interventions, we identify source utility as the mechanism driving group effects in belief formation. Our analyses indicate that our observed effects are driven by groupy participants who exhibit stable and consistent intergroup preferences in both allocation decisions and belief formation across all three waves. These results suggest that policymakers could reduce the salience of group and partisan identity associated with a policy to decrease outgroup information avoidance and increase policy uptake. |
| Keywords: | group identity, information demand, information processing, political polarization |
| JEL: | D47 C78 C92 D82 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:280966&r=pol |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel; Esterling, Kevin; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Bueno, Natália S.; Desposato, Scott; Dreber, Anna; Genovese, Federica; Green, Donald P.; Hepplewhite, Matthew; Hoces de la Guardia, Fernando; Johannesson, Magnus; Kotsadam, Andreas; Miguel, Edward; Velez, Yamil R.; Young, Lauren |
| Abstract: | This article reviews and summarizes current reproduction and replication practices in political science. We first provide definitions for reproducibility and replicability. We then review data availability policies for 28 leading political science journals and present the results from a survey of editors about their willingness to publish comments and replications. We discuss new initiatives that seek to promote and generate highquality reproductions and replications. Finally, we make the case for standards and practices that may help increase data availability, reproducibility, and replicability in political science. |
| Keywords: | Reproducibility, replicability, political science |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:100&r=pol |
| By: | Schneider-Strawczynski, Sarah (University of Exeter); Valette, Jérôme (CEPII, Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of media coverage on immigration attitudes. It combines data on immigration coverage in French television with individual panel data from 2013 to 2017 that records respondents' preferred television channel and attitudes toward immigration. The analysis focuses on within-individual variations over time, addressing ideological self-selection into channels. We find that increased coverage of immigration polarizes attitudes, with initially moderate individuals becoming more likely to report extremely positive and negative attitudes. This polarization is mainly driven by an increase in the salience of immigration, which reactivates preexisting prejudices, rather than persuasion effects from biased news consumption. |
| Keywords: | immigration, media, polarization, salience |
| JEL: | D8 F22 L82 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16681&r=pol |
| By: | Monzani, Lucas; Bibic, Kira; Haslam, S. Alexander; Kerschreiter, Rudolf; Wilson-Lemoine, Jérémy E.; Steffens, Niklas K.; Akfirat, Serap Arslan; Ballada, Christine Joy A.; Bazarov, Tahir; Jamir Benzon R. Aruta, John; Avanzi, Lorenzo; Bunjak, Aldijana; Černe, Matej; Edelmann, Charlotte M.; Epitropaki, Olga; Fransen, Katrien; García-Ael, Cristina; Giessner, Steffen; Gleibs, Ilka H.; Godlewska-Werner, Dorota; Kark, Ronit; Ramat-Gan, Israel; Laguia Gonzalez, Ana; Lam, Hodar; Lupina-Wegener, Anna; Markovits, Yannis; Maskor, Mazlan; Molero Alonso, Fernando Jorge; Antonio Moriano Leon, Juan; Neves, Pedro; Pauknerová, Daniela; Retowski, Sylwiusz; Roland-Lévy, Christine; Samekin, Adil; Sekiguchi, Tomoki; Story, Joana; Stouten, Jeroen; Sultanova, Lilia; Tatachari, Srinivasan; van Bunderen, Lisanne; Van Dijk, Dina; Wong, Sut I; van Dick, Rolf |
| Abstract: | Identity leadership involves leaders creating and promoting a sense of shared group membership (a sense of 'we' and 'us') among followers. The present research report tests this claim by drawing on data from 26 countries that are part of the Global Identity Leadership Development (GILD) project to examine the relationship between political leaders' identity leadership and civic citizenship behavior (N = 6, 787). It also examines the contribution of trust and economic inequality to this relationship. Political leaders' identity leadership (PLIL) was positively associated with respondents' people-oriented civic citizenship behaviors (CCB-P) in 20 of 26 countries and civic citizenship behaviors aimed at one's country (CCB-C) in 23 of 26 countries. Mediational analyses also confirmed the indirect effects of PLIL via trust in fellow citizens on both CCB-P (in 25 out of the 26 countries) and CCB-C (in all 26 countries). Economic inequality moderated these effects such that the main and indirect effects of trust in one's fellow citizens on CCB-C were stronger in countries with higher economic inequality. This interaction effect was not observed for CCB-P. The study highlights the importance of identity leadership and trust in fellow citizens in promoting civic citizenship behavior, especially in the context of economic inequality. |
| Keywords: | social identity; identity leadership; economic inequality; trust; civic citizenship behavior |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2024–01–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120374&r=pol |
| By: | D\'ora Gr\'eta Petr\'oczy; L\'aszl\'o Csat\'o |
| Abstract: | The Council of the European Union (EU) is one of the main decision-making bodies of the EU. Many decisions require a qualified majority: the support of 55% of the member states (currently 15) that represent at least 65% of the total population. We investigate how the power distribution, based on the Shapley-Shubik index, and the proportion of winning coalitions change if these criteria are modified within reasonable bounds. The influence of the two countries with about 4% of the total population each is found to be almost flat. The level of decisiveness decreases if the population criterion is above 68% or the states criterion is at least 17. The proportion of winning coalitions can be increased from 13.2% to 20.8% (30.1%) such that the maximal relative change in the Shapley--Shubik indices remains below 3.5% (5.5%). Our results are indispensable to evaluate any proposal for reforming the qualified majority voting system. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.16878&r=pol |