nep-pol New Economics Papers
on Positive Political Economics
Issue of 2024‒01‒29
six papers chosen by
Eugene Beaulieu, University of Calgary

  1. A Bayesian Networks Approach for Analyzing Voting Behavior By Miguel Calvin; Pilar Rey del Castillo
  2. Whose Preferences Matter for Redistribution: Cross-Country Evidence By Michel Andre Maréchalⓡ; Alain Cohnⓡ; Jeffrey Yusofⓡ; Raymond Fismanⓡ; Michel André Maréchal; Raymond Fisman
  3. Civil Rights Protests and Election Outcomes: Exploring the Effects of the Poor People's Campaign By Anderson, D. Mark; Charles, Kerwin Kofi; Karbownik, Krzysztof; Rees, Daniel I.; Steffens, Camila
  4. Peace of Mind: Examining Election-Induced Anxiety among Minorities in India By , Jafar; Singh, Tejendra Pratap
  5. Global political ties and the global financial cycle By Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Xiang
  6. In search of the "real democrats": Right-wing extremist patterns of argumentation with a focus on the interpretation of democracy in the light of specific German history By Blum, Alice

  1. By: Miguel Calvin; Pilar Rey del Castillo
    Abstract: The problem of finding the factors influencing voting behavior is of crucial interest in political science and is frequently analyzed in books and articles. But there are not so many studies whose supporting information comes from official registers. This work uses official vote records in Spain matched to other files containing the values of some determinants of voting behavior at a previously unexplored level of disaggregation. The statistical relationships among the participation, the vote for parties and some socio-economic variables are analyzed by means of Gaussian Bayesian Networks. These networks, developed by the machine learning community, are built from data including only the dependencies among the variables needed to explain the data by maximizing the likelihood of the underlying probabilistic Gaussian model. The results are simple, sparse, and non-redundant graph representations encoding the complex structure of the data. The generated structure of dependencies confirms many previously studied influences, but it can also discover unreported ones such as the proportion of foreign population on all vote variables.
    Keywords: Bayesian networks, Gaussian distributions, voting behaviour, elections, voter turnout, political participation
    JEL: C46 D31 D72 D91
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Michel Andre Maréchalⓡ; Alain Cohnⓡ; Jeffrey Yusofⓡ; Raymond Fismanⓡ; Michel André Maréchal; Raymond Fisman
    Abstract: Using cross-sectional data from 93 countries, we investigate the relationship between the desired level of redistribution among citizens from different socioeconomic backgrounds and the actual extent of government redistribution. Our focus on redistribution arises from the inherent class conflicts it engenders in policy choices, allowing us to examine whose preferences are reflected in policy formulation. Contrary to prevailing assumptions regarding political influence, we find that the preferences of the lower socioeconomic group, rather than those of the median or upper strata, are most predictive of realized redistribution. This finding contradicts the expectations of both leading experts and regular citizens.
    Keywords: elite capture, median voter theorem, preferences for redistribution
    JEL: H23 D72 D78
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Charles, Kerwin Kofi (Yale University); Karbownik, Krzysztof (Emory University); Rees, Daniel I. (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Steffens, Camila (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
    Abstract: The Poor People's Campaign (PPC) of 1968 was focused on highlighting, and ultimately reducing, poverty in the United States. As part of the campaign, protestors from across the country were transported to Washington, D.C. in 6 separate bus caravans, each of which made stops en route to rest, recruit, and hold non-violent protests. Using data from 1960-1970, we estimate the effects of these protests on congressional election outcomes. In the South, we find that PPC protests led to reductions in Democratic vote share and turnout, while in the West they may have benefited Democratic candidates at the expense of their Republican rivals.
    Keywords: Poor People's Campaign, election outcomes, voting behavior, protests, race
    JEL: D72 I30 J15 N32
    Date: 2023–12
  4. By: , Jafar; Singh, Tejendra Pratap
    Abstract: We examine if the national elections held in India differentially affected minorities after the ruling party’s landslide victory in 2019. Employing a measure of anxiety and nationally representative survey data, we find a significant increase in anxiety among minorities, particularly within the Muslim community. Moreover, our results uncover significant heterogeneity in the main effect, with a more pronounced impact in districts characterized by high electoral competitiveness. We establish the credibility of our research design through a battery of empirical tests.
    Date: 2023–12–24
  5. By: Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar; Li, Xiang
    Abstract: We study the implications of forging stronger political ties with the US on the sensitivities of stock returns around the world to a global common factor - the global financial cycle. Using voting patterns at the United Nations as a measure of political ties with the US along with various measures of the global financial cycle, we document evidence indicating that stronger political ties with the US amplify the sensitivities of stock returns in developing countries to the global financial cycle. We explore several channels and find that a deepening of financial linkages along with a reduction in information asymmetries and an amplification of sentiment are potentially important factors behind this result.
    Keywords: Political Ties, Global Financial Cycle, International Spillovers, Stock returns
    JEL: E44 F30 F50 G15
    Date: 2024
  6. By: Blum, Alice
    Abstract: This article uses the example of the far-right blog Sezession to examine the particular significance of German history for the authors and the way in which it is used for right-wing political argumentation. With the help of a content analysis approach, 111 articles were examined and it was worked out how the authors use National Socialism and the GDR dictatorship as arguments for themselves. It is shown that all argumentation patterns are aimed at questioning the existing democracy and positioning themselves as better democrats. With regard to National Socialism, these are dismissive or relativizing narratives, while the history of the GDR is drawn upon to substantiate one's own resistance and the correctness of one's own position.
    Keywords: Far-right, democracy, narratives, victimization, GDR, National Socialism, Sezession
    Date: 2023

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