| Abstract: |
Private donors contributed more than $350 million to local election officials
to support the administration of the 2020 election. Supporters argue these
grants were neutral and necessary to maintain normal election operations
during the pandemic, while critics worry these grants mostly went to
Democratic strongholds and tilted election outcomes. These concerns have led
twenty-four states to restrict private election grants. How much did these
grants shape the 2020 presidential election? To answer this question, we
collect administrative data on private election administration grants and
election outcomes. We then use new advances in synthetic control methods to
compare presidential election results and turnout in counties that received
grants to counties with identical average presidential election results and
turnout before 2020. While counties that favor Democrats were much more likely
to apply for a grant, we find that the grants did not have a noticeable effect
on the presidential election. Our estimates of the average effect of receiving
a grant on Democratic vote share range from 0.02 percentage points to 0.36
percentage points. Our estimates of the average effect of receiving a grant on
turnout range from -0.03 percentage points to 0.13 percentage points. Across
specifications, our 95% confidence intervals typically include negative
effects, and our confidence intervals from all specifications fail to include
effects on Democratic vote share larger than 0.58 percentage points and
effects on turnout larger than 0.40 percentage points. We characterize the
magnitude of our effects by asking how large they are compared to the margin
by which Biden won the 2020 election. In simple bench-marking exercises, we
find that the effects of the grants were likely too small to have changed the
outcome of the 2020 presidential election. |