nep-pol New Economics Papers
on Positive Political Economics
Issue of 2021‒03‒22
twenty-one papers chosen by
Eugene Beaulieu
University of Calgary

  1. Voter coordination in elections : a case for approval voting By François Durand; Antonin Macé; Matias Nunez
  2. The Consequences of Hosting Asylum Seekers for Citizens' Policy Preferences By Zimmermann, Severin; Stutzer, Alois
  3. Electoral Competition with Fake News By Gene M Grossman; Elhanan Helpman
  4. Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment By Cagatay Bircan; Orkun Saka
  5. Police Militarization and Local Elections By Christos Mavridis; Orestis Troumpounis; Maurizio Zanardi
  6. Lost in transition? The persistence of dictatorship mayors By Gonzalez, Felipe; Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
  7. The Local Political Economy of Austerity: Lessons from Hospital Closures in Romania By Savu, A.
  8. Are voters rational? By Lyytikainen, Teemu; Tukiainen, Janne
  9. Reverse Political Coattails under a Technocratic Government: New Evidence on the National Electoral Benefits of Local Party Incumbency By Savu, A.
  10. Democracy and the Politicization of Inequality in Brazil, 1989-2018 By Amory Gethin; Marc Morgan
  11. Direct democracy, corporate political strategy, and firm value By Rüdiger Fahlenbrach; Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov; Philip Valta
  12. Effects of political institutions on the external debt-economic growth nexus in Africa By Yann Nounamo; Simplice A. Asongu; Henri Njangang; Sosson Tadadjeu
  13. Friendship Networks and Political Opinions: A Natural Experiment among Future French Politicians By Yann Algan; Nicolò Dalvit; Quoc-Anh Do; Alexis Le Chapelain; Yves Zenou
  14. Two Dimensions of Political Trust in Russia By Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov; Marina Yu. Malkina; Igor A. Moiseev
  15. Inequality, Identity, and the Structure of Political Cleavages in South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, 1996-2016 By Carmen Durrer de la Sota; Amory Gethin
  16. Are autocracies bad for the environment? Global evidence from two centuries of data By Apra Sinha; Ashish Kumar Sedai; Abhishek Kumar; Rabindra Nepal
  17. Immigration and Voting Patterns in the European Union: Evidence from Five Case Studies and Cross-Country Analysis By Grumstrup, Ethan; Sorensen, Todd A.; Misiuna, Jan; Pachocka, Marta
  18. Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting By Ray C. Fair
  19. Homo moralis goes to the voting booth: a new theory of voter turnout By Ingela Alger; Jean-François Laslier
  20. Party System Transformation and the Structure of Political Cleavages in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland, 1967-2019 By Carmen Durrer de la Sota; Amory Gethin; Clara Martínez-Toledano
  21. Are Neoliberalism Policies Undermining Free and Democratic Societies? By Danielle Araujo

  1. By: François Durand (Nokia Bell Labs, LINCS - Laboratory of Information, Network and Communication Sciences - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - SU - Sorbonne Université); Antonin Macé (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Matias Nunez (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We study how voting rules shape voter coordination in large three-candidate elections. We consider three rules, varying according to the number of candidates that voters can support in their ballot: Plurality (one), Anti-Plurality (two) and Approval Voting (one or two). We show that the Condorcet winner—a normatively desirable candidate—can always be elected at equilibrium under Approval Voting. We then numerically study a dynamic process of political tâtonnement. Monte-Carlo simulations of the process deliver rich insights on election outcomes. The Condorcet winner is virtually always elected under Approval Voting, but not under the other rules. The dominance of Approval Voting is robust to alternative welfare criteria and to the introduction of expressive voters.
    Keywords: Approval voting,Poisson games,Strategic voting,Condorcet consistency,Fictitious play,Expressive voting
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03162184&r=all
  2. By: Zimmermann, Severin (University of Basel); Stutzer, Alois (University of Basel)
    Abstract: Asylum migration is a major societal challenge in the Western world affecting residents' policy preferences. We analyze the effects of newly hosting asylum seekers in a given municipality on local citizens' preferences in terms of migratory and redistributive policies as well as of support or opposition to political change in general. Policy preferences are measured based on citizens' actual voting behavior in national referendums in Switzerland between 1987 and 2017. We exploit the administrative placement of asylum seekers across municipalities and find that citizens vote temporarily slightly more restrictively on immigration issues in national referendums and are less supportive of redistribution than before hosting asylum seekers. Citizens are not more likely to vote for the status quo and not more likely to participate per se.
    Keywords: asylum seekers, direct democracy, political preferences, pro-immigration attitudes, redistribution, status quo effect, voter participation
    JEL: F22 H53 I38 J15 Z13
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14159&r=all
  3. By: Gene M Grossman (Princeton University); Elhanan Helpman (Harvard University and CIFAR)
    Abstract: Misinformation pervades political competition. We introduce opportunities for political candidates and their media supporters to spread fake news about the policy environment and perhaps about parties' positions into a familiar model of electoral competition. In the baseline model with full information, the parties' positions converge to those that maximize aggregate welfare. When parties can broadcast fake news to audiences that disproportionately include their partisans, policy divergence and suboptimal outcomes can result. We study a sequence of models that impose progressively tighter constraints on false reporting and characterize situations that lead to divergence and a polarized electorate.
    Keywords: policy formation, probabilistic voting, misinformation, polarization, fake news
    JEL: D78 D72
    Date: 2020–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:269&r=all
  4. By: Cagatay Bircan; Orkun Saka
    Abstract: We document a strong political cycle in bank credit and industry outcomes in Turkey. In line with theories of tactical redistribution, state-owned banks systematically adjust their lending around local elections compared with private banks in the same province based on electoral competition and political alignment of incumbent mayors. This effect only exists in corporate lending and creates credit constraints for firms in opposition areas, which suffer drops in assets, employment and sales but not firm entry. Financial resources and factors of production are misallocated as more effient provinces and industries suffer the greatest constraints, reducing aggregate productivity.
    Keywords: bank credit, electoral cycle, state-owned banks, misallocation
    JEL: G21 D72 D73 P16
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8883&r=all
  5. By: Christos Mavridis (Middlesex University London); Orestis Troumpounis (University of Padova and Lancaster University); Maurizio Zanardi (University of Surrey)
    Abstract: US local law enforcement agencies have been receiving substantial military equipment through the “1033 Program" during the last decades. Sheriffs, one of the agencies requesting such transfers, are directly accountable to voters for their actions, so one may wonder: how do military equipment transfers in a given county affect the re-election prospects of the county's sheriff? We construct a unique dataset on local electoral races covering 6,218 sheriff elections in 2,381 counties between 2006 and 2016 and reveal the causal effect of military transfers on sheriffs' re-election probabilities: an increase in military transfers in a given county (from none to the median value) results in an increase in the probability the county's sheriff is re-elected (by 3:6 to 9:9 percentage points). This result explains sheriffs' strong support for the “1033 Program" and suggests that the image of a “tough" sheriff in town seems to be rewarded, overall providing fresh evidence on voters' responsiveness in local office elections.
    JEL: D72 H56 H76 K42
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:0221&r=all
  6. By: Gonzalez, Felipe (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile); Muñoz, Pablo; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We look at Chile’s transition to democracy in 1990 to study the persistence of authoritarian politics at the local level. Using new data on the universe of mayors appointed by the Pinochet dictatorship (1973-1990), and leveraging on the arbitrary election rules that characterized the first local election in 1992, we present two main findings. First, dictatorship mayors obtained a vote premium that is larger among the last wave of incumbents and appears partially explained by an increase in local spending. Second, dictatorship mayors who were democratically elected in 1992 brought votes for the parties that collaborated with the dictatorship in subsequent elections held in democracy. These results show that the body of politicians appointed by a dictatorship can contribute to the persistence of elites and institutions.
    Date: 2021–01–27
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d6x54&r=all
  7. By: Savu, A.
    Abstract: I study whether austerity measures implemented by a central government incentivize electorally-motivated policy adjustments at the local level. To do so, I first quantify the effects of a controversial 2011 health-sector reform carried out in Romania, whereby a significant proportion of the country’s public hospitals was discontinued. Exploiting geographic constituency-level variation in austerity exposure created by this measure, I document a significant increase in local "voter-friendly" government spending targeted towards infrastructure investments in the policy’s catchment areas. Consistent with an electoral mechanism explaining this response, the evidence suggests that the effect is driven by the actions of local politicians affiliated with those responsible for the reform. To rule out alternative explanations, I take advantage of a second natural experiment wherein a party previously in opposition to those responsible for the closure of hospitals allied itself with the measure’s principal orchestrator. Following this re-alignment, I find heterogeneous increases in local voter-friendly spending which further corroborate the electoral mechanism. Overall, my results indicate that the electorally-driven responses of sub-national governments may partially mitigate the political costs of carrying out austerity.
    Keywords: Austerity, Political Costs, Central and Local Governments, Electoral Spending
    JEL: D72 D73 D78 H71 H72 H74 H76 H77
    Date: 2021–01–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2120&r=all
  8. By: Lyytikainen, Teemu; Tukiainen, Janne
    Abstract: We test whether a voter’s decision to cast a vote depends on its probability of affecting the election outcome. Using exogenous variation arising at population cutoffs determining council sizes in Finnish municipal elections, we show that larger council size increases both pivotal probabilities and turnout. These effects are statistically significant, fairly large and robust. Finally, we use a novel instrumental variables design to show that the jumps in the pivotal probabilities are the likely candidate for explaining the increase in turnout, rather than the other observed simultaneous jumps at the council size cutoffs. Moreover, our results indicate that turnout responds only to within-party pivotal probabilities, perhaps because they are more salient to the voters than the between-party ones.
    Keywords: local government elections; instrumental variables; rational voting; regression discontinuity design
    JEL: D72
    Date: 2019–09–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:100217&r=all
  9. By: Savu, A.
    Abstract: Does the control of local offices benefit parties in national elections when local incumbents are not strategically supported by the central government? To address this question, I study the national electoral effects of local party incumbency in the context of a technocratic central government instituted following an unexpected tragic event that forced the resignation of the previous government. Using a regression discontinuity method applied to mayoral races in Romania, I document that the control of local offices causally generated significant vote share premia in the 2016 parliamentary ballot - estimated at 10-11 percentage points, or roughly one fourth of the dependent variable’s mean. My results show that the affiliation of local incumbents can be consequential for parliamentary power absent a contemporaneous party alignment linking local and central governmental forces.
    Keywords: Central and Local Governments, Reverse Coattails, Local Incumbency, Clientelism, Political Parties, Elections
    JEL: D72 D73 H50 H72 H77
    Date: 2021–01–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2121&r=all
  10. By: Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Marc Morgan (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the transformation of electoral cleavages in Brazil since 1989 using a novel assembly of electoral surveys. Brazilian political history since redemocratization is largely a history of the rise and fall of the Workers' Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT). We show that the election of Lula da Silva as President in 2002, followed by the implementation of redistributive policies by successive PT governments, was at the origin of the marked socioeconomic cleavages that emerged. In a relatively short space of time the PT transformed itself from a party of the young, highly educated, high-income elite of the Southern party of the country, to a party of the poor and lesser educated voters, increasingly located in the disadvantaged region of the Northeast. Controlling for a host of socio-demographic factors, a voter in the Northeast was 20 percentage points more likely to vote for the PT in 2018 than voters in other regions, compared to being 5 percentage points less likely to do so in 1989. In sharp contrast to other western democracies, political conflict in Brazil has followed an increasingly unidimensional class-based path. This culminated in the unification of elites and large parts of the middle class behind Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election. We argue that contextual policy-driven factors and programmatic alliances are key to understand the PT's singular evolution, and thus the transformation of electoral cleavages in Brazil.
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03165718&r=all
  11. By: Rüdiger Fahlenbrach (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)); Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov (HEC Paris - Finance Department); Philip Valta (University of Bern)
    Abstract: We analyze a novel data set of corporate contributions to ballot initiatives and referendums at the U.S. state level between 2003 and 2018. Ballot initiatives and referendums allow citizens of 26 U.S. states to vote directly on legislation. Firms make significant campaign contributions to ballot measure committees in favor of or against specific initiatives that exceed on average their political action committee contributions. Firms that contribute to successful (failed) direct initiated state initiatives generate positive (negative) CARs of 0.32% (-0.21%) on average around the election. They also experience significant sales growth in the two years surrounding successful ballot measure campaigns.
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2123&r=all
  12. By: Yann Nounamo (Douala, Cameroon); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon); Henri Njangang (University of Dschang , Cameroon); Sosson Tadadjeu (University of Dschang , Cameroon)
    Abstract: The main contribution of this study is the determination of an endogenous threshold of institutional quality, beyond which external debt would affect economic growth differently. The focus is on 14 countries of the African Franc zone over the period 1985-2015. Based on the panel Smooth Threshold Regression model, the results reveal that the relationship between external debt and economic growth is based on institutional quality. It is found that the level of indebtedness at which the effect of external debt on economic growth becomes negative is higher in countries with lower levels of corruption and high levels of democracy. This means that poor institutional quality prevents a country from taking full advantage of its credit opportunities. Thus, the more countries become democratic, the more debt helps finance economic growth. These results are robust to sensitivity analysis and Generalized Method of Moments estimation.
    Keywords: external debt, political institutions, economic growth
    Date: 2021–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:21/017&r=all
  13. By: Yann Algan (Département d'économie); Nicolò Dalvit (Département d'économie); Quoc-Anh Do (Département d'économie); Alexis Le Chapelain; Yves Zenou (Research Institute of Industrial Economics)
    Abstract: We study how social interaction and friendship shape students' political opinions in a natural experiment at Sciences Po, the cradle of top French politicians. We exploit arbitrary assignments of students into short-term integration groups before their scholar cursus, and use the pairwise indicator of same-group membership as instrumental variable for friendship. After six months, friendship causes a reduction of differences in opinions by one third of the standard deviation of opinion gap. The evidence is consistent with a homophily-enforced mechanism, by which friendship causes initially politically-similar students to join political associations together, which reinforces their political similarity, without exercising an effect on initially politically-dissimilar pairs. Friendship affects opinion gaps by reducing divergence, therefore polarization and extremism, without forcing individuals' views to converge. Network characteristics also matter to the friendship effect.
    Keywords: Extremism; Friendship Effect; Homophily; Learning; Natural experiment; Polarization; Politcal opinion; Social networks
    JEL: C93 D72 Z13
    Date: 2019–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6g4f57e9if8d98agaso2prcnu9&r=all
  14. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Vyacheslav N. Ovchinnikov; Marina Yu. Malkina; Igor A. Moiseev
    Abstract: This paper analyzes two dimensions of factors of political trust in Russia. The first dimension is the target dimension (sociotropic vs. egocentric), the second dimension is the time dimension (retrospective vs. perspective). The study is based on the microdata of 2016 Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We find a robust evidence in favor of the dominant sociotropic channel of political trust. Thus, individuals, when deciding whether to trust or not trust into the Russian government, are primarily guided by the improvements in the external environment. Moreover, we find that the impact of sociotropic factors on political trust depends on the level of government. The improvements in political performance are the most important determinant of trust in the Russian president, while the institutional change and the economic development are the most important determinants in the models of trust in other government levels. Finally, we find that individuals who have lost their wealth show more trust than those who have preserved or increased it. However, this effect only works, if individuals are optimistic toward the future.
    Keywords: Political trust, sociotropic channel, egocentric channel Russia, microdata, Life in Transition Survey
    JEL: P26 P27 P37
    Date: 2021
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1934&r=all
  15. By: Carmen Durrer de la Sota (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper documents how democratization in South Korea, Taiwan, and Hong Kong since the 1980s has led to the materialization of growing political cleavages. Political integration, manifested by attitudes towards North Korea in South Korea, and towards mainland China in Hong Kong and Taiwan, have been a key issue structuring party competition and electoral behaviors in the three territories. In Hong Kong and South Korea, this issue has sharply divided old and new generations, albeit in a somewhat different way. In Hong Kong, younger cohorts are substantially more likely to vote for parties supporting lower political integration. In South Korea, older generations show significantly higher support for unification, but they are also much more likely to vote for conservatives, who firmly oppose any attempt to engage with the North Korean regime, a phenomenon rooted in decades of tensions and fiercely anticommunist regimes. In Taiwan, such a strong generational divide is absent, but the independence/unification cleavage has interacted with ethnicity: immigrants from mainland China and their descendants have been more supportive of the pro-unification Kuomintang than natives. This is also the case in Hong Kong, where sustained immigration from the mainland has come with the emergence of a strong anti-immigration cleavage. We argue that the strength of these cleavages and the lack of political mobilization of the working class for historical reasons have played a key role in explaining the near absence of class cleavages in all three territories. While economic concerns do play a role in nurturing mass mobilizations, cultural and political identities, rather than material concerns, seem to continue shaping party systems in East Asia.
    Date: 2021–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03165716&r=all
  16. By: Apra Sinha; Ashish Kumar Sedai; Abhishek Kumar; Rabindra Nepal
    Abstract: This study examines the effects of the rule of law on carbon-dioxide emissions using a large sample of countries for over a century. In principle, the turning point of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is compared for a range of countries lying between autocracy and democracy. Using decadal data for 220 years (1790-2010) and 150 countries, we use country fixed effects estimation technique to quantify the absolute and interactive effects of autocracy-democracy index on carbon-dioxide emissions. Results show that democracies emit less carbon-dioxide for one unit increase in per-capita income, leading to lower turning point and thus lower emission. The turning point in case of autocracies are more than twice of the turning point for democracies. Electoral autocracies have lower turning point in comparison to closed autocracies. Point estimates are robust to alternative estimation techniques and are not likely to be influenced by omitted variable biases. Strengthening rule enforcement and improving access to justice can be critical in decreasing carbon-dioxide emissions.
    Keywords: EKC, Turning Point, Rule of law, Democracy, Autocracy
    JEL: Q50 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2021–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-24&r=all
  17. By: Grumstrup, Ethan (University of Nevada, Reno); Sorensen, Todd A. (University of Nevada, Reno); Misiuna, Jan (Warsaw School of Economics); Pachocka, Marta (Warsaw School of Economics)
    Abstract: Tempers flared in Europe in response to the 2015 European Refugee Crisis prompting some countries to totally close their borders to asylum seekers. This was seen to have fueled anti-immigrant sentiment, which grew in Europe along with the support for far-right political parties that had previously languished. This sparked a flurry of research into the relationship between immigration and far-right voting, which has found mixed and nuanced evidence of immigration increasing far-right support in some cases, while decreasing support in others. Studies by Mendez and Cutillas (2014); Mayda, Peri, and Steingress (2016); Vertier and Viskanic (2018); and Georgiadou, Lamprini, and Costas (2018) found that the presence of immigrants decreased votes for right parties, while others by Otto and Steinhardt (2014); Dustmann, Vasiljeva, and Damm (2016); Halla, Wagner, and Zweimuller (2017); Brunner and Kuhn (2018); and Edo et. al. (2019) found that immigration increased votes for right parties. To provide more evidence to this unsettled debate in the empirical literature, we use data from over 400 European parties to systematically select cases of individual countries. We augment this with a cross-country quantitative study. Our analysis finds little evidence that immigrant populations are related to changes in voting for the right. Our finding gives evidence that factors other than immigration are the true cause of rises in right voting.
    Keywords: European Union, immigration, voting
    JEL: J15 F22
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14164&r=all
  18. By: Ray C. Fair (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: According to retrospective voting a bad economy hurts the incumbent party and vice versa. According to risk-aversion voting a bad economy favors the Democrats over the Republicans and vice versa. This paper provides a test of both theories and rejects risk-aversion voting.
    Keywords: Retrospective voting, Risk-aversion voting
    JEL: E00
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2279&r=all
  19. By: Ingela Alger (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IAST - Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse); Jean-François Laslier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: The paper reviews the implications of evolutionary Kantian morality for a classical problem in the economic theory of voting: the costly participation problem.
    Keywords: Homo moralis,Ethical voter,Voting,Voter turnout,Kantian morality
    Date: 2021–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03152172&r=all
  20. By: Carmen Durrer de la Sota (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Amory Gethin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, WIL - World Inequality Lab); Clara Martínez-Toledano (Imperial College London, WIL - World Inequality Lab)
    Abstract: This paper combines post-electoral surveys to study the transformation of the structure of political cleavages in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland over the last five decades. Despite their history of linguistic, regional, and religious conflicts, all four countries share a common tradition of consensus decision-making, which has remained until the present. Yet, the weakening of historical cleavages, the emergence of new political formations (i.e. Green parties on the left and anti-immigration parties on the right), and the rise of new divides have significantly transformed their party systems since the 1980s. Support for green and left-wing parties among highest-educated voters, and for anti-immigration parties among the lower-educated has grown, while top-income earners have remained instead more supportive of the traditional right. Both the rise of new green and anti-immigration parties, but also changes within old parties have thus led to the emergence of "multi-elite party systems", as it has been shown in other Western democracies.
    Date: 2021–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03165720&r=all
  21. By: Danielle Araujo (Harvard Extension School, USA)
    Abstract: Neoliberalism is a term that has attracted a remarkable degree of frustration and fury within the academia. Its political ideology is associated with Wall Street greed, union-busting, deregulation, wage theft, privatization and exploitation. Critics claim it has been used as a weapon of the wealthy class to mask their true intentions. It removes decision-making out of popular hands and places decisions in the hands of unelected International Organizations, undoing democracy. The extreme inequalities and empowerment of capital that neoliberalism brings about, reduces human beings into market actors undermining the power and needs of the people. The main conclusion of the paper is that neoliberalism policies are a radicalizing threat to human potential and democracies in the 21st century.
    Keywords: neoliberalism, neoliberalism policies, democracy, democratic societies, international organizations, World Bank, IMF, Structural Adjustment Programmes
    Date: 2021–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:conswp:037da&r=all

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