|
on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | Ella Paldam (Department of Culture and Society; Aarhus University); Martin Paldam (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports new macro time-series for the number and size of churches in Denmark from year 1300 to 2000. Church densities are defined as the series per capita. The densities are interpreted as a proxy for religiosity. It is falling throughout all 700 years, but two events gave an extra fall: 1) The Reformation of Catholicism into Lutheranism in the first half of the 16th century caused a fall of 9%, and 2) modern economic growth after 1820 caused a fourfold fall as predicted by the theory of the religious transition. We suggest that similar data for all European countries would show the same strong reaction of church densities to modern economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Church stock, religiosity, transition |
| JEL: | N13 N14 Z12 |
| Date: | 2015–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2015-11&r=pol |
| By: | Syamsudin, Nur; Wegener, Malcolm |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare15:202587&r=pol |
| By: | Escobar, Cristina; Kallas, Zein; Gil, José María |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa143:202730&r=pol |
| By: | O'Connor, Bernard |
| Abstract: | The protection of European Geographical Indications has been a point of conflict between the European Union and the United States for many years. The essential difference is in how GIs should be protected, if they should be protected at all. The US considers that they can be protected as a sub-set of Trade Marks. The EU considers that GIs are a distinct form of Intellectual Property requiring a distinct system of law. The practical issue today is the extent to which EU GIs can be protected in the US. The US seeks to limit the availability of protection on the basis that many EU food names are descriptive of types of foods rather than names specifically linked to a particular origin. For the EU, protection of GIs is a reflection of the EU’s vast food culture and goes hand in hand with the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. Protection of EU GIs in third countries is a quid pro quo for abandoning the management of production and protection of the EU market. It has not been possible to come to agreement in the WTO Doha Round. Can agreement be found in TTIP? This paper suggests that the solution must be rooted in intellectual property law rather than in agricultural policy |
| Keywords: | TTIP, GIs, CETA, Legal, Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa145:204144&r=pol |
| By: | Santini, Fabien; Guri, Fatmir; Aubard, Audrey; Gomez y Paloma, Sergio |
| Abstract: | One of the goals of geographical indications in the EU is to contribute to rural development of remote and less-favoured areas. On the base of a rough estimation of the uptake of geographical indications in mountain and island areas of the EU, it can be concluded that indeed agricultural and food producers of such areas demonstrate a significantly higher use of geographical indication than average in the EU. However, the differences of geographical features reflect themselves in the fact that this use is not uniform: mountain stakeholders do rely more on geographical indications than islands ones. This is an indication that regional and/or rural policies need to be tailored to the local geographical, economic and social specificities of each area concerned. |
| Keywords: | GIs, Rural Development, European Union, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa145:204145&r=pol |
| By: | Hugo Rojas-Romagosa; Eddy Bekkers; Joseph F. Francois |
| Abstract: | A consequence of melting Arctic ice caps is the commercial viability of the Northern Sea Route, connecting North-East Asia with North-Western Europe. This will represent a sizeable reduction in shipping distances and a decrease in the average transportation days by around one-third compared to the currently used Southern Sea Route. We examine the economic impact of the opening of the Northern Sea Route in a multi-sector Eaton and Kortum model with intermediate linkages. This includes a remarkable shift of bilateral trade flows between Asia and Europe, diversion of trade within Europe, heavy shipping traffic in the Arctic, and a substantial drop in traffic through Suez. These global trade changes are reflected in real income and welfare effects for the countries involved. The estimated redirection of trade has also major geopolitical implications: the reorganisation of global supply chains within Europe and between Europe and Asia, and the highlighted political interest and environmental pressure on the Arctic. |
| JEL: | R4 F17 C2 D58 F18 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:307&r=pol |
| By: | Anwar, Shamena; Bayer, Patrick; Hjalmarsson, Randi |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from the Gothenburg District Court in Sweden and a research design that exploits the random assignment of politically appointed jurors (termed nämndemän) to make three contributions to the literature on jury decision-making: (i) an assessment of whether systematic biases exist in the Swedish nämndemän system, (ii) causal evidence on the impact of juror political party on verdicts, and (iii) an empirical examination of the role of peer effects in jury decision-making. The results reveal a number of systematic biases: convictions for young defendants and those with distinctly Arabic sounding names increase substantially when they are randomly assigned jurors from the far-right (nationalist) Swedish Democrat party, while convictions in cases with a female victim increase markedly when they are assigned jurors from the far-left (feminist) Vänster party. The results also indicate the presence of peer effects, with jurors from both the far-left and far-right parties drawing the votes of their more centrist peers towards their positions. Peer effects take the form of both sway effects, where jurors influence the opinions of their closest peers in a way that can impact trial outcomes, and dissent aversion, where jurors switch non-pivotal votes so that the decision is unanimous. |
| Keywords: | crime; jury; peer effects; politics |
| JEL: | K4 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10589&r=pol |
| By: | Anwar, Shamena Anwar (Carnegie Mellon University); Bayer, Patrick (Duke University); Hjalmarsson, Randi (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from the Gothenburg District Court in Sweden and a research design that exploits the random assignment of politically appointed jurors (termed nämndemän) to make three contributions to the literature on jury decision-making: (i) an assessment of whether systematic biases exist in the Swedish nämndemän system, (ii) causal evidence on the impact of juror political party on verdicts, and (iii) an empirical examination of the role of peer effects in jury decision-making. The results reveal a number of systematic biases: convictions for young defendants and those with distinctly Arabic sounding names increase substantially when they are randomly assigned jurors from the far-right (nationalist) Swedish Democrat party, while convictions in cases with a female victim increase markedly when they are assigned jurors from the far-left (feminist) Vänster party. The results also indicate the presence of peer effects, with jurors from both the far-left and far-right parties drawing the votes of their more centrist peers towards their positions. Peer effects take the form of both sway effects, where jurors influence the opinions of their closest peers in a way that can impact trial outcomes, and dissent aversion, where jurors switch non-pivotal votes so that the decision is unanimous. |
| Keywords: | crime; jury; nämndemän; politics; peer effects |
| JEL: | K14 K40 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0622&r=pol |
| By: | Khalid, Usman (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical studies confirm a positive relationship between trade liberalization or trade openness and the quality of domestic economic institutions. An isolated analysis of trade openness per se, however, may grossly simplify the mechanisms at work, as the linkage between open trade and quality of economic institutions is likely to vary for different political regimes. This study examines the causal relationship between trade openness and quality of economic institutions under different political institutions. We find that in the presence of extractive political institutions, the effect of trade openness on economic institutions is reduced significantly. |
| Keywords: | trade openness; political institutions; economic institutions; institutional change |
| JEL: | F13 F14 P14 P16 |
| Date: | 2015–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2015_015&r=pol |
| By: | Martén, Linna (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Several countries practice a system where laymen, who lack legal education, participate in the judicial decision making. Yet, little is known about their potential influence on the court rulings. In Sweden lay judges (namndeman) are affiliated with the political parties and appointed in proportion to political party representation in the last local elections. This paper investigates the influence of their partisan belonging when ruling in asylum appeals in the Migration Courts, where laymen are effectively randomly assigned to cases. The results show that the approval rate is affected by the policy position of the laymen's political parties. In particular, asylum appeals are more likely to be rejected when laymen from the anti-immigrant party the Swedish Democrats participate, and less likely to be rejected when laymen from the Left Party, the Christian Democrats or the Green Party participate. This indicates that asylum seekers do not receive an impartial trial, and raises concerns that laymen in the courts can compromise the legal security in general. |
| Keywords: | Political attitudes; Decision making; Court; Immigration; Legal system |
| JEL: | D72 D79 K10 K40 |
| Date: | 2015–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2015_002&r=pol |
| By: | Kellee Tsai (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Division of Political Science, Johns Hopkins University; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | The Xi-Li administration faces the dual challenge of managing state capitalism and shadow banking as China enters a phase of more moderate economic growth. During China's first three decades of reform, private sector development occurred in parallel with prioritization of state-owned enterprises in strategic industries, and growth surged. This pattern of state capitalism rested on an unarticulated bifurcated financing arrangement whereby the formal banking system primarily served public enterprises, while private businesses relied primarily on informal finance. However, China's response to global financial crisis disrupted the preceding equilibrium of financial dualism under state capitalism. Unprecedented expansion of bank lending after 2008 created opportunities for a host of state economic actors- including SOEs, state banks, and local governments—to expand their participation in offbalance sheet activities. |
| Keywords: | China, state capitalism, informal finance, shadow banking, financial development |
| JEL: | G23 G21 O17 P16 P26 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201525&r=pol |
| By: | Dan Bogart (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine) |
| Abstract: | The Whig and Tory parties played an important role in British politics in the decades following the Glorious Revolution. This paper introduces new data on the political affiliation of all MPs in England and Wales between 1690 and 1747. The data have numerous applications for research. The focus here is on majority party representation and the electoral politics of constituencies. I show that the Whigs had stronger representation in municipal boroughs with small and narrow electorates, whereas the Tories were stronger in county constituencies and in boroughs with large and more democratic electorates. The Whigs were stronger in the Southeast region and the Tories in Wales and the West Midlands. After the Whig leader, Robert Walpole, became prime minister in 1721 the Whigs lost some presence in their traditional strongholds including counties where the Dissenter population was large. Finally, I incorporate data on electoral contests and show that the majority party generally lost strength in constituencies following contests. |
| Keywords: | Political parties; Whigs; Tories; Rage of Party; Walpole; Glorious Revolution |
| JEL: | N43 P16 D72 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irv:wpaper:141510&r=pol |
| By: | Anukriti, S (Boston College); Chakravarty, Abhishek (University of Essex) |
| Abstract: | Despite theoretical advances, measurement issues have impeded empirical research on aspirations. We quantify political aspirations in a developing country by estimating individuals' willingness to trade-off family size for political candidacy. Utilizing quasi-experimental variation in legal fertility limits on village council members in India, we find that at least 2.21% of married couples of childbearing age altered their fertility to remain eligible for council membership. This implies that returns to local leadership in low-income democracies are potentially high. Poorer, less educated, and lower-caste families display strong political aspirations, thereby lowering the extent of elite-capture at the local level of governance. |
| Keywords: | India, Panchayat elections, political aspirations, fertility limits, sex ratios |
| JEL: | J13 J16 H75 O11 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9023&r=pol |
| By: | Mehmet I. Canayaz (Said Business School, University of Oxford); Jose V. Martinez (School of Business, University of Connecticut); Han N. Ozsoylev (Said Business School, University of Oxford and College of Administrative Sciences and Economics, Koç University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we look into the so-called "revolving door of Washington", which is the movement of individuals between federal government positions and jobs in the private sector, and examine its link to long-run stock returns. We find that firms where current public officials become future employees outperform other firms by a statistically significant 7.43% per year in terms of four-factor alpha. This result is robust to different weighting methodologies and risk adjustments, and to plausible reverse causality arguments. We also show that firms receive more valuable government contracts from a government agency when a future firm employee is holding a post at that agency. Such financial gains are significantly reduced during periods in which presidential executive orders restrict revolving door movements. Our results are consistent with the notion that some public officials could be favoring certain companies while in office with a view to gaining future corporate employment. |
| Keywords: | Corporate political connections, government contracts, regulatory capture, revolving door. |
| JEL: | D73 G12 G18 L51 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1507&r=pol |
| By: | Philippe De Donder; Marie-Louise Leroux |
| Abstract: | We develop a model where families consist of one parent and one child, with children diering in income and all agents having the same probability of becoming dependent when old. Young and old individuals vote over the size of a social long term care transfer program, which children complement with informal (time) or formal (money) help to their dependent parent. Dependent parents have an intrinsic preference over informal to monetary help. We rst show that low (resp., high) income children provide informal (resp. formal) help, whose amount is decreasing (resp. increasing) with the child's income. The middle income class may give no family help at all, and its elderly members would be the main beneciaries of the introduction of social LTC transfers. We then provide several reasons for the stylized fact that there are little social LTC transfers in most countries. First, social transfers are dominated by informal help when the intrinsic preference of dependent parents for informal help is large enough. Second, when the probability of becoming dependent is lower than one third, the children of autonomous parents are numerous enough to oppose democratically the introduction of social LTC transfers. Third, even when none of the rst two conditions is satised, the majority voting equilibrium may entail no social transfers, especially if the probability of becoming dependent when old is not far above one third. This equilibrium may be local (meaning that it would be defeated by the introduction of a suciently large social program). This local majority equilibrium may be empirically relevant whenever new programs have to be introduced at a low scale before being eventually ramped up. |
| Keywords: | Majority voting, Local Condorcet winner, Crowding out, Intrinsic preference for informal help, Tax reform |
| JEL: | H55 I13 D91 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:criacr:1508&r=pol |
| By: | S. Borağan Aruoba; Allan Drazen; Razvan Vlaicu |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a structural approach to measuring the effects of electoral accountability. We estimate a political agency model with imperfect information in order to identify and quantify discipline and selection effects, using data on U.S. governors for 1982-2012. We find that the possibility of reelection provides a significant incentive for incumbents to exert effort. We also find a selection effect, although it is weaker in terms of its effect on average governor performance. According to our model, the widely-used two-term regime improves voter welfare by 4.2% compared to a one-term regime, and find that a three-term regime may improve voter welfare even further. |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H70 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21151&r=pol |
| By: | Köppl Turyna, Monika |
| Abstract: | Using a unique set of electoral rules present in the Austrian state of Vorarlberg, we explore the question whether local electoral rules affect the size of local governments. We find evidence that party--list system is associated with higher levels of expenditure and that direct elections of the mayor are associated with lower size of the public sector. The results are robust to the possibility that electoral rules might be endogenous to the local economic and geographic conditions. |
| Keywords: | local expenditure, opportunistic politicians, electoral rules |
| JEL: | D7 D72 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2015–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64201&r=pol |
| By: | Köppl Turyna, Monika; Kula, Grzegorz; Balmas, Agata; Waclawska, Kamila |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of political business cycles and fiscal autonomy on the expenditure categories of Polish municipalities. Using System GMM technique, we find convincing evidence for strong political business cycles in almost all expenditure categories, and in particular for the categories of expenditure relevant for electoral success such as infrastructure and social expenditure. Transfers to municipalities from the central government accentuate the strength of the electoral cycles, but surprisingly are associated with lower expenditure levels outside of the election periods. The latter results are the main finding: fiscal autonomy although not necessarily reducing the levels of local expenditure, does reduce the level of political manipulation of the budgets. |
| Keywords: | local expenditure, political business cycles, fiscal autonomy, decentralization |
| JEL: | D72 H72 H75 H77 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:64202&r=pol |
| By: | Rodrigo Arrangóiz (Escuela Bancaria y Comercial) |
| Abstract: | The conceptualization and the practise of national security in the Mexico’s political dynamic during most of the twentieth century symbolized the security of the regime. Civil society as such was poorly developed. The intelligence services operated with a high level of discretion due to the absence of a legal framework preventing them being subject to any oversight.In this context, the right for access to information introduced by the first democratic transition government was a turning point. Isolated civil society efforts done before 2000 were empowered and their pressure for openness of the intelligence sector finally became feasible for the very first time in Mexico’s modern history.To date, the Centre for Investigation and National Security (the main national intelligence agency) seems to have taken off its image of political police and made considerable efforts to prevent human rights abuses. There are still massive opportunity areas. Mexico’s democratic transition aftermath could be the right time for civil society to continue pressuring and thus continuing helping in building the state institutions Mexico, as a global actor, needs. |
| Keywords: | democratization of intelligence services, openness, transparency, civil society, democratic consolidation in Mexico, the right of access to information. |
| JEL: | L40 H73 R59 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1003445&r=pol |
| By: | Anastasios Valvis (University of the Peloponnese) |
| Abstract: | It has already been 5 years since Greece first entered into a period of unprecedented economic crisis - a crisis that saw an end to the previous prosperous era. Under these new conditions, the welfare state in Greece started to falter. Unemployment skyrocketed, while more and more people started working without social insurance. The state’s social care system almost collapsed, leaving vulnerable people exposed. The number of homeless people is increasing day by day, while those struggling to find food have multiplied during these years.Greek Organized Civil Society, although underdeveloped compared to other European states, stood up in order to cover the state’s insufficiency. Yet, cases of corruption with the engagement of NGOs in the past have raised a lot of questions regarding the motives behind the actions of some NGOs. Accusations have become a frequent phenomenon in the press throughout recent years, creating a false image of the NGO sector in Greece. Political accusations have found a fertile ground to prosper, causing severe damage to the image of the NGOs. While it is true that a number of scandals regarding the work of specific NGOs that have been brought into the limelight were valid, the generalizations that followed hammered the public image of the entire sector. To this end, the NGO sector became an easy battle-ground for political provocations and accusations, usually without reason. |
| Keywords: | NGOs, Media, Corruption, Political Parties |
| JEL: | D73 D71 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:1004001&r=pol |
| By: | Nathan Foley-Fisher (Research and Statistics Division, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C., USA); Eoin McLaughlin (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews) |
| Abstract: | We study the daily yields on Irish land bonds listed on the Dublin Stock Exchange during the years 1920-1938. We exploit structural differences in bonds guaranteed by the UK and Irish governments to find Irish events that had long term effects on the credibility of government guarantees. We document two major events: The Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1921 and Ireland’s default on intergovernmental payments in 1932. We discuss the political and economic forces behind the Irish and UK governments’ decisions. Our finding has implications for modern-day proposals to issue jointly-guaranteed sovereign debt. |
| Keywords: | Ireland, Irish land bonds, Dublin Stock Exchange, sovereign default, debt mutualization. |
| JEL: | N23 N25 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sss:wpaper:2015-11&r=pol |