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on Positive Political Economics |
| By: | A Oswald; N Powdthavee |
| Abstract: | What determines human beings' political preferences? Using nationally representative longitudinal data, we show that having daughters makes people more likely to vote for left-wing political parties. Having sons leads people to favor right-wing parties. The paper checks that our result is not an artifact of family stopping-rules, discusses the predictions from a simple economic model, and tests for possible reverse causality. |
| Keywords: | Voting, gender, daughters, political preferences, attitudes. |
| JEL: | D1 D72 H1 J7 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:08/18&r=pol |
| By: | Shawn A. Cole (Harvard Business School, Finance Unit) |
| Abstract: | This paper integrates theories of political budget cycles with theories of tactical electoral redistribution to test for political capture in a novel way. Studying banks in India, I find that government-owned bank lending tracks the electoral cycle, with agricultural credit increasing by 5-10 percentage points in an election year. There is significant cross-sectional targeting, with large increases in districts in which the election is particularly close. This targeting does not occur in non-election years, or in private bank lending. I show capture is costly: elections affect loan repayment, and election year credit booms do not measurably affect agricultural output. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:09-001&r=pol |
| By: | Anger, Niels; Böhringer, Christoph; Oberndorfer, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a political-economy analysis of allowance allocation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). A common-agency model suggests that a politicalsupport maximizing government considers the preferences of sectoral interest groups besides public interest when allocating emissions permits. In the stylized model, industries represented by more powerful lobby groups face a lower regulatory burden, which for sufficiently high lobbying power leads to an inefficient emissions regulation. An empirical analysis of the first trading phase of the EU ETS corroborates our theoretical prediction for a cross-section of German firms, but also shows that the political-economy determinants of permit allocation depend on firm characteristics. We find that large carbon emitters that were heavily exposed to emissions regulation and simultaneously represented by powerful interest groups received higher levels of emissions allowances. In contrast, industrial lobbying power stand-alone or threats of potential worker layoffs did not exert a significant influence on the EU ETS allocation process. |
| Keywords: | Emissions trading, interest groups, regression analysis |
| JEL: | C10 P16 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7295&r=pol |
| By: | Per G. Fredriksson (University of Louisville); Xenia Matschke (University of Connecticut); Jenny Minier (University of Kentucky) |
| Abstract: | We provide a theory of trade policy determination that incorporates the protectionist bias inherent in majoritarian systems, suggested by Grossman and Helpman (2005). The prediction that emerges is that in majoritarian systems, the majority party favors industries located disproportionately in majority districts. We test this prediction using U.S. tariff data from 1993, and House campaign contribution data from two electoral cycles. We find evidence of a protectionist bias due to majoritarian system politics that is comparable in magnitude to the payoff from being an organized industry. |
| JEL: | F13 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2008-20&r=pol |
| By: | Anne van Aaken; Lars P. Feld; Stefan Voigt (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Philipps Universitaet Marburg) |
| Abstract: | It is hypothesized that prosecution agencies that are dependent on the executive have less incentives to prosecute crimes committed by government members which, in turn, increases their incentives to commit such crimes. Here, this hypothesis is put to an empirical test focusing on a particular kind of crime, namely corruption. In order to test it, it was necessary to create an indicator measuring de jure as well as de facto independence of the prosecution agencies. The regressions show that de facto independence of prosecution agencies robustly reduces corruption of officials. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Prosecution Agencies, Judicial Independence and Positive Constitutional Economics |
| JEL: | H11 K40 K42 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:200801&r=pol |
| By: | Geys, Benny; Heinemann, Friedrich; Kalb, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Social and/or political involvement within the population is often argued to enhance public sector performance. The underlying idea is that engagement fosters political awareness and interest and increases the public’s monitoring ability. Still, although extensive voter involvement may put pressure on policy-makers, it might also send a vague message in that diverging objectives are likely to exist in different groups. Furthermore, weak fiscal autonomy can undermine voters’ interest in and demand for an efficient production of public services. In our contribution, we test whether and how voter involvement in the political sphere is related to government performance – in terms of its efficiency – using a broad panel of German municipalities. Our results suggest that voter involvement indeed has a positive impact on (technical) efficiency. Crucially, however, this efficiency-enhancing effect of voter involvement is significantly (positively) affected by local governments’ fiscal autonomy. In den letzten 15 Jahren hat sich ein Literaturstrang entwickelt, der den positiven Einfluss von Sozialkapital auf das Leistungsverhalten des öffentlichen Sektors herausstellt. Danach erhöht das Engagement der Bürger im gesellschaftlichen Leben nicht nur das Interesse an sowie das Verständnis für Politik, sondern es führt auch dazu, dass die Bürger eher dazu neigen, eine „gute“ und effiziente Politik einzufordern. Diese Aussage besitzt jedoch nur dann Gültigkeit, wenn zwei entscheidende Annahmen erfüllt sind: Zum einen sollte das soziale Engagement das politische Bewusstsein und Interesse wecken, zum anderen sollte die erhöhte Anteilnahme sowie das erhöhte Interesse an politischen Prozessen zu einer Steigerung der Effizienz der Amtsinhaber oder der amtierenden Regierung führen. Während die erste Annahme bereits in zahlreichen Untersuchungen belegt wurde, wurde die zweite Annahme bisher nur in sehr wenigen Arbeiten untersucht. Dieser Beitrag stellt den Versuch dar, diese Lücke zu schließen. Mithilfe eines umfangreichen Panels von deutschen (baden-württembergischen) Gemeinden wird in dieser Studie empirisch untersucht, ob eine erhöhte Anteilnahme der Bürger an politischen Prozessen – was als ein Teilaspekt des gesamten „Sozialkapital-Bereichs“ angesehen werden kann – das Leistungsverhalten des öffentlichen Sektors tatsächlich erhöht, wobei ein „gutes“ Leistungsverhalten (hier) dadurch charakterisiert ist, dass die jeweilige Gebietskörperschaft auf oder sehr nahe an ihrer Effizienzgrenze operiert. Die Effizienzanalyse bezieht sich dabei auf die Gesamtheit aller Aufgaben einer Gebietskörperschaft (hier: einer Gemeinde) und nicht auf einzelne Teilbereiche wie beispielsweise der Abfallbeseitigung, der Verwaltung oder des Straßenbaus. Des Weiteren wird in dieser Studie untersucht, wie sich eine erhöhte Anteilnahme an politischen Prozessen in Gebietskörperschaften, die durch eine höhere fiskalische Autonomie gekennzeichnet und somit weniger von Finanzzuweisungen abhängig sind, auf die Effizienz auswirkt. Denn Bürger (oder Wähler), die in fiskalisch autonomeren Gebietskörperschaften wohnen, werden effektiver mit dem „tatsächlichen“ Steuerpreis der öffentlichen Güter und Dienstleistungen konfrontiert. Die empirische Analyse zeigt, dass eine erhöhte Anteilnahme der Bürger an politischen Prozessen – gemessen durch (1) die Wahlbeteiligung, (2) die Existenz so genannter „Freier Wählervereinigungen“ im Gemeinde- oder Stadtrat (=Zusammenschlüsse von Personen, die Zwecks Durchsetzung gemeinsamer politischer Ziele zu einer Wahl auf kommunaler Ebene antreten) und (3) den Anteil der Wahlberechtigten an der Gesamtbevölkerung (einer Gemeinde) – tatsächlich zu einer Steigerung der Effizienz der Amtsinhaber führt. Darüber hinaus wird aufgezeigt, dass dieser Effekt in fiskalisch autonomeren Gemeinden bzw. Städten deutlich höher ausfällt. Letzteres Ergebnis könnte dadurch begründet sein, dass eine (politisch) aktivere Bürgerschaft mehr Wert auf eine korrekte und sachgerechte Verwendung der öffentlichen Mittel legt, wenn diese Gelder nicht etwa in Finanzzuweisungen (von anderen Gebietskörperschaften) ihren Ursprung haben, sondern von eigenen Steuereinnahmen abstammen. |
| Keywords: | Civic engagement, Local government, Efficiency, Stochastic frontier analysis, German municipalities, Social capital, Fiscal autonomy |
| JEL: | H11 H40 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7296&r=pol |
| By: | Alessia Isopi (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Fabrizio Mattesini (Faculty of Economics, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the determinants of the relationship between aid and corruption. We propose a static principal-agent model where a donor faces the problem of giving aid to a recipient country in which the phenomenon of corruption is widely spread. We distinguish among two different types of corruption: one, that we call endemic, that depends on the political and institutional environment of the recipient; the other, that we call aid related, is the consequence of moral hazard arising from the ability of corrupt burocracies to divert resources from their intended use. Through the design of appropriate contracts, donors can act only on the second type of corruption, contributing to reduce the entity of the phenomenon. We use the restrictions implied by our theoretical framework to test a model of aid allocation. For the majority of the donors (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and the UK), we find some indication that efficiency considerations are taken into account in allocating aid. For some of them (Germany, Italy and the Netherlands), however, strategic/economic considerations are important, while the UK is also motivated by purely altruistic concerns. According to our model, Denmark and Japan are mainly driven by recipient needs, while the USA, and to a lesser extent France, allocate aid mainly on the basis of strategic/economic interests. |
| Keywords: | Aid Allocation, Corruption, Moral Hazard. |
| JEL: | F35 D82 |
| Date: | 2008–07–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:121&r=pol |
| By: | Andreas Mehler (GIGA Institute of African Affairs) |
| Abstract: | Peace agreements form a crucial element of strategies to bring security from outside: they involve third-party mediators during the negotiation stage and often peacekeeping troops to guarantee the agreement at an implementation stage. Peace roundtables usually involve top politicians and military leaders, who negotiate, sign, and/or benefit from the agreement. What is usually and conspicuously absent from peace negotiations is broad-based participation by those who should benefit in the first place: citizens. More specifically, the local level of security provision and insecurity production is rarely taken into account. This paper reviews parts of the academic debate on power sharing and war termination, touching on some key findings by the main researchers working on the topic. The ambivalent African experience with Arend Lijphart’s four main ingredients of consociational democracy (grand coalition, minority veto, proportional representation, group autonomy) is summarized. Recent major African peace agreements (1999-2007) are analyzed, and their power-sharing content detailed. Most agreements contain some—though varying— power-sharing devices. Most striking is the variation regarding the important question of who is sharing power with whom. Obviously, only those present at the negotiation table can really count on being included in major ways. Finally, three country cases are analyzed over a longer time period: Côte d’Ivoire (2002-2007), Liberia (1994-2003), and Central African Republic (1996-2007). The conclusion focuses on the factors of failure of peace agreements that place a heavy emphasis on power sharing. |
| Keywords: | Power sharing, peace agreements, consociational democracy, Central African Republic, Côte d'Ivoire, Liberia |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:83&r=pol |