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on Post Keynesian Economics |
| By: | Enrico Caricchio; Corrado Di Guilmi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the implications of introducing non-regular workers, typically characterized by limited wage bargaining power, into the Goodwin cyclical growth framework, and applies the extended model to the Japanese data. Analytically, we incorporate this duality by adding a third dynamic equation to the original two-dimensional Goodwin system, assuming that firms turn to this secondary workforce to offset upward pressure on the wage share during periods of labor market tightness. The resulting three-dimensional system is studied empirically, analytically, and numerically. This threefold analysis reveals that the introduction of secondary workers substantially modifies the dynamics of class conflict and, under certain conditions, replaces the Goodwin limit cycle with a convergent equilibrium. Our empirical estimates suggest that Japanese firms' hiring behavior is consistent with the convergent regime. However, adjustment frictions in the composition of employment may slow the reallocation of workers across contract types, preventing convergence and allowing the economy to remain on the Goodwin limit cycle. |
| Keywords: | Goodwin model, non-regular employment, distributional conflict. |
| JEL: | C62 E25 E32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_18.rdf |
| By: | Raape, Leander |
| Abstract: | International Financial Subordination (IFS) places major external constraints to developmentalist policy space in Global South countries and shapes their domestic political economy. An analysis of the relatively successful neodevelopmentalist period of 2002-2014 in Brazil, when some external constraints to development were loosened during the commodity boom, reveals that the very factors that advanced the interests of the dominant social bloc and drove growth contributions also diminished policy space. Because of this misalignment, the neodevelopmentalist government missed opportunities for policy space expansion, and its existing attempts were thwarted. Developmentalist literature has argued that in Latin America, developmentalist policies are opposed by some sectors of the domestic capitalist class, rendering favourable and stable coalitions unfeasible. An examination of the relationship between dominant social blocs and growth regimes however reveals that the interests of households, poor as well as upper-middle class, also need to be addressed to achieve sustainable development. The Brazilian experience shows the importance of structural power: Governments that seek to implement developmentalist projects should confront domestic interests that thwart ambitions to counter IFS and strengthen like minded groups such as industrial capital, industry trade unions, and poor peasants. |
| Keywords: | International Financial Subordination, developmentalism, policy space, international political economy |
| JEL: | E11 E12 F54 O20 O54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:343107 |
| By: | Brüggemann, Kai |
| Abstract: | This article argues that Keynes's inquiry into probability constitutes a theory of rational choice under uncertainty that is distinct from the subjective probability approach. Ramsey's theoretical treatment, in contrast to Keynes's, anticipates the mathematization of economic theory by introducing the possibility of numerically precise expressions of expectations under uncertainty. His essay reveals how this approach relies on idealized formalizations, most notably illustrated through the analogy between decision-making and betting. In doing so, Ramsey's account aims to provide a descriptive analysis of human behaviour under uncertainty. Both analyses indicate the limits to the mathematical inquiry of decisions under uncertainty by exposing the limits of induction. While this issue remains largely absent from Ramsey's analysis, it is constitutive of Keynes's account. Thus, although both approaches seek to develop concepts of rational choice under conditions of incomplete knowledge, the normative issues arising from the epistemic conception of uncertainty central to Keynes's analysis remain excluded from Ramsey's inquiry. Contrasting the two accounts reveals how distinct analyses of the economy can be traced back to different epistemic standpoints on uncertainty in decision-making. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:343056 |
| By: | Stanislav Avdeev |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first evidence on the impact of exposure to international students on the long-term outcomes of native students. I combine unique survey and administrative data from the Netherlands covering one million students across three decades and employ an across-cohort design. I find that exposure to international students leads natives to (i) form social ties with non-natives, (ii) hold more positive attitudes towards migration and learning about other cultures, and (iii) seek opportunities abroad. Notably, I find precisely estimated zero effects on employment, income, entrepreneurship, and the share of international co-workers up to 25 years after university entry. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.28842 |
| By: | Len Ishmael |
| Abstract: | The US-Israeli war on Iran, a 'little excursion' envisaged to be over within a matter of weeks, has entered its fourth month. Shock waves ripple across the globe. This war is just one in a series of recent crises which have fractured the international community, making the decades of the 2020's among the most disruptive in recent history. Each crisis compounds the deleterious effects of those which came before. The war in Iran is no exception. It abruptly stalled economic momentum for countries of the Global South struggling to regain conditions of stability within which prospects for growth might improve. Crippled by skyrocketing energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and debt crises, these countries face a harsh reality: for most, recovery is stunted, as inflation, recession and insolvency continue to spiral. Shifts in the balance of world power add to the sense of crisis. On multiple fronts, the world, as we know it, is changing. And while there is no clarity regarding the final contours of what comes next, it does seem certain that the status quo is no more; much trust has been lost; there will be no going back. The Liberal World Order, its rules, norms and principles founded on the idea of open markets, free trade and multilateral cooperation, engineered primarily by the United States and Western allies in the wake of World War II, is disintegrating. It is contested and undermined, not only by external actors, but also by its architects. The rules-based framework which provided the veneer of legality and blunted the force of unregulated raw power, is being dismantled. In the process, the vision of Post War idealism constructed around concepts of the common good and shared prosperity, is being replaced by more narrowly defined objectives anchored in national interests. The Western Alliance – once the pillar of the Post World War Order – lies among the casualties. In many Western countries, polls show that the level of citizens trust in their governments and institutions is at an all-time low. For many, the capitalist model has failed to safeguard their interests. The rise of populism underscores the steady drifting of societies away from the values of liberalism, towards narrow definitions of national identity and belonging. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb45_26 |