nep-pke New Economics Papers
on Post Keynesian Economics
Issue of 2023‒03‒13
six papers chosen by
Karl Petrick
Western New England University

  1. Shedding light on Argentina's macroeconomic trap: Macroeconomic Policy Regimes and Demand and Growth Regimes By Ianni, Juan Martín
  2. Ladislaus von Bortkiewicz’s Errors and a Reliable Solution to the Marxian Problem of Transformation in Direct and Inverse Formulation By Kalyuzhnyi, Valeriy
  3. From export boom to private debt bubble: A macroeconomic policy regime assessment of Canada's shifting growth regime in the neoliberal era By Klassen, Theodore J.
  4. In search of a growth model for Italy: The failed attempt of an export-led recovery strategy? By Bramucci, Alessandro
  5. Technological chance and growth regimes: Assessing the case for universal basic income in an era declining labour shares By Chrisp, Joe; Garcia-Lazaro, Aida; Pearce, Nick
  6. Capitalism and Global Governance in Business History: A Roundtable Discussion By Pitteloud, Sabine; Ballor, Grace; Clavin, Patricia; Perrone, Nicolas Marcelo; Rollings, Neil; Slobodian, Quinn

  1. By: Ianni, Juan Martín
    Abstract: Demand and Growth Regimes (DGR) and Macroeconomic Policy Regimes (MPR) frameworks have taken prominence within the post-Keynesian literature. However, the majority of studies based on these conceptual frameworks have focused on developed economies. The main contribution of this paper is to provide a post-Keynesian analysis of the DGR and MPR of an emerging capitalist economy, Argentina, in the period between 2002 and 2019. Challenging previous periodization of the Argentine macroeconomy, the results show a more precise characterization of the latter, thus allowing a better understanding of economic policy and its results in terms of aggregate demand and growth. In particular, it is possible to observe the MPR and DGR transition between 2002 and 2015, as well as an abrupt change after 2016.
    Keywords: growth, post-Keynesian macroeconomics, macroeconomic policy mix, peripheral economies, developing countries
    JEL: O11 E12 E60 O54
    Date: 2023
  2. By: Kalyuzhnyi, Valeriy
    Abstract: The paper argues that economists still regard the solution to the problem of the transformation of values into prices of production, got by L. von Bortkiewicz, as belonging to Marx himself. After all, it was allegedly “correctly corrected” by the said author in 1907. Bortkiewicz based his solution on several erroneous interpretations’ theory of Marx. Because of Bortkiewicz’s errors, the representatives of the mainstream see no connection between the “value system” and the “production price system”. They claim that the transformation problem itself results from impossibility and that Marxist value theory is, at best, irrelevant and irremediably inconsistent. The paper shows that the solution to the transformation issue exists in both the direct and inverse formulation. We used for this purpose the Tugan-Baranowsky—Bortkiewicz three-sector model. These results are consistent with the concept of Marx within the dualistic approach. They coincide with the results generated by the author in his previous work (see In the present paper, we introduce methods and examples of transformation, including iterative and based on solving systems of simultaneous equations. We prove again with their help that at equilibrium prices, profit arises from surplus value, or more precisely, from the newly created value generated by workers’ labour and from no other source. We also show that a dualistic approach to transformation allows us to see the advantages of value prices, which, unlike production prices, do not limit the growth of the productive power of labour when enterprises introduce new machines. Value prices are in demand under socialism.
    Date: 2022–03–01
  3. By: Klassen, Theodore J.
    Abstract: This paper examines the emergence of private debt-led growth in Canada since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) by means of a growth regimes and macroeconomic policy regime assessment. Examining each of the four business cycles in the 1983-2020 period, roughly encompassing the entirety of the neoliberal period, results demonstrate the emergence of a 'rising' weakly export-led growth regime in the early 1990s, a shift to a 'falling' weakly export-led regime by 2001, and a turn to a debt-led private demand regime since the GFC. The macroeconomic policy regime then identifies the structural changes and policy factors which have contributed to Canada's shifting growth regime. While price competitiveness played an important role in the first three cycles, it failed to re-establish an export-led regime in the postGFC period due to decreased non-price competitiveness. Instead, the post-GFC combination of negative real interest interests which encouraged the accumulation of private debt and fiscal policy which ex post did not address the negative financial balances of the household sector supported the turn to private debt-led growth.
    Keywords: growth regimes, macroeconomic policy regime, financialization, private debt, post-Keynesian economics, Canada
    JEL: E11 E12 E60 E65 F62 O51
    Date: 2023
  4. By: Bramucci, Alessandro
    Abstract: We analyse Italy's growth pattern from 2001 to 2019 using the demand and growth regime categories proposed in the post-Keynesian tradition and recently adopted in the comparative political economy (CPE) literature. We argue that Italy followed an export-led recovery strategy after the Global Financial Crisis. In this respect, Germany's growth model emerged as the successful one to follow. In the dominant view, Germany's economic success since the mid-2000s was attributed to a series of painful but necessary economic reforms. The success of Germany's export-led mercantilist regime became particularly attractive to Italy given the similar export-oriented manufacturing industry. However, Italy has followed the "wrong" German model based on wage compression and restrictive budget policies while the "true" German model is based on non-price competitiveness factors. To conclude, we show the contradictions of the mercantilist export-led regime.
    Keywords: Demand and growth regimes, export-led growth, competitiveness, internal devaluation, Germany, Italy
    JEL: E10 E69 F14
    Date: 2023
  5. By: Chrisp, Joe; Garcia-Lazaro, Aida; Pearce, Nick
    Abstract: [Synopsis and motivation] In recent decades, most OECD countries have seen a significant decline in the labour share, as well as an increase in inequality. The decline in the labour share and the rise in inequality poses several problems for such countries, whether related to distributive justice, economic and social outcomes, such as deficient aggregate income and demand, or democratic politics. In this report, we focus on the role of technological change as a central driver of the decline in the labour share and explore its contingency: both across contexts and across definitions/operationalisations of technology. With respect to the latter, we distinguish between perspectives that place physical capital and investment in automation and ICT at the centre of technological change on the one hand, and the growth of the knowledge economy and intangible capital on the other. Meanwhile, following work by Baccaro and Pontusson (2016), and more recently Hassel and Palier (2021), we utilise the concept of 'growth regimes' to analyse how the effects of technology are mediated and moderated by national political-economic institutions. This approach allows us to test more nuanced arguments about the role of technological change in the decline in the labour share and to discuss the likely effects, and political feasibility, of policy solutions such as universal basic income (UBI) that are often advanced as an answer to increased automation and lower returns to labour. The following issues provide the basis for our research questions: 1. To what extent is technological change responsible for the decline in the labour share? 2. What is the role of growth regimes in moderating the effect of technology on the labour share? 3. Are results consistent across different conceptions and definitions of technological change? 4. What policy solutions are available to tackle these trends and issues? 5. Does technological change strengthen the case for and the feasibility of a universal basic income? This work builds on previous policy briefs and reports by the Institute for Policy Research (IPR) on UBI and technological change, namely the September 2019 report by Dr Luke Martinelli entitled 'Basic income, automation and labour market change' (Martinelli, 2019a). That report summarised the evidence regarding the effects of technology on labour markets and the case for UBI in such a light. Empirical analysis, however, focused on political economy questions concerning the political constituency for a UBI and policy trade-offs in design across EU countries using microsimulation analysis. Here, our empirical strategy is instead focused on questions about the effect of technology on the labour share, enabling us to re-pose the question of how a UBI could serve as a tool for combating growing inequality, income and demand deficiency, and labour market dysfunction in global economies. Future empirical research at the IPR will focus more comprehensively on the fifth and final research question above, namely estimating the macroeconomic effects of a UBI, including one funded using sovereign money. Next, we introduce three central ideas in the report - the decline in the labour share, technological change and growth regimes - before briefly outlining the consequences for policy debates.
    Date: 2023
  6. By: Pitteloud, Sabine; Ballor, Grace; Clavin, Patricia; Perrone, Nicolas Marcelo; Rollings, Neil; Slobodian, Quinn
    Abstract: This working paper brings together a diverse group of scholars to discuss the historiography of capitalism, business history and global governance and lay the foundations for further research in this area. Grace Ballor and Sabine Pitteloud open the discussion with a historiographical survey of the ways capitalism and its actors – in particular entrepreneurs and managers, firms and business associations – have interacted with international organizations and global governance frameworks. This literature review lays the foundation for contributions from four leading scholars and their perspectives on the past, present, and future of research in this area. Patricia Clavin discusses capitalism and governance through the dynamics of international relations, while Nicolás Perrone brings a lawyer’s perspective to the public-private creation of international rules; Neil Rollings thinks about firms, governments, and global governance through both continuities and change, and Quinn Slobodian applies the analytical framework of international political economy to the evolving relationships between states and markets on a global scale. Our collective examination of business and international order aims to offer critical scholarly insight on the 20th and 21st centuries and outline future research agendas for what promises to be an increasingly rich field of study.
    Keywords: capitalism, globlal governance, business history
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2022

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