|
on Post Keynesian Economics |
| By: | Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex); Caetano C.R. Penna (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | Recent work has highlighted the need for innovation investments to be understood through a mission oriented approach rather than a market failure one (Foray et al. 2012). However, this work has only focused on state agencies, such as DARPA, overlooking the role of public financial institutions such as state investment banks. Indeed, with the increasingly short-term nature of private financial markets, the role of public financial institutions has become increasingly important, and yet they continue to be analysed and evaluated through the market failure framework. Beginning with the importance of SIBs today in the emerging green economy, the paper develops a conceptual typology of the different roles that SIBs play in the economy which together show the market creation/shaping process of SIBs, rather than their mere ‘market fixing’ roles. The paper discusses four types of investments, both theoretically and empirically: countercyclical; developmental; venture capitalist role; and challenge-led. To develop the typology, we first discuss how standard market failure theory (MFT) justifies the roles of SIBs, the diagnostics and evaluation toolbox associated with it, and resulting criticisms centred on notions of ‘government failures’. We then show the limitations of this approach based on insights from Keynes, Schumpeter, Minsky and Polanyi, and other authors from the evolutionary economics tradition, which help us move towards a framework for public investments that is more about market creating/shaping rather than market fixing. As frameworks lead to evaluation tools, we use this new lens to both discuss the increasingly targeted investments that SIBs are making, and to provide a new light on the usual criticisms that are made about such directed activity (e.g. crowding out and picking winners). |
| JEL: | G20 O16 O38 L52 P16 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:7 |
| By: | Dimitri B. Papadimitriou; Michalis Nikiforos; Gennaro Zezza |
| Abstract: | Our latest strategic analysis reveals that the US economy remains fragile because of three persistent structural issues: weak demand for US exports, fiscal conservatism, and a four-decade trend in rising income inequality. It also faces risks from stagnation in the economies of the United States' trading partners, appreciation of the dollar, and a contraction in asset prices. The authors provide a baseline and three alternative medium-term scenarios using the Levy Institute's stock-flow consistent macro model: a dollar appreciation and reduced growth in US trading partners scenario; a stock market correction scenario; and a third scenario combining scenarios 1 and 2. The baseline scenario shows that future growth will depend on an increase in private sector indebtedness, while the remaining scenarios underscore the linkages between a fragile US recovery and instability in the global economy. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_mar_16 |
| By: | Franz Dietrich (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Christian List (LSE - London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Behaviourism is the view that preferences, beliefs, and other mental states in social-scientific theories are nothing but constructs re-describing people's behaviour. Mentalism is the view that they capture real phenomena, on a par with the unobservables in science, such as electrons and electromagnetic fields. While behaviourism has gone out of fashion in psychology, it remains influential in economics, especially in 'revealed preference' theory. We defend mentalism in economics, construed as a positive science, and show that it fits best scientific practice. We distinguish mentalism from, and reject, the radical neuroeconomic view that behaviour should be explained in terms of brain processes, as distinct from mental states. |
| Keywords: | decision theory,scientific realism,Mentalism,behaviourism,revealed preference |
| Date: | 2016–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01249632 |
| By: | Mark Setterfield (New School For Social Research,); Yun K. Kim (University of Massachusetts, Boston); Jeremy Rees (Trinity College, Hartford) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the claim that the way in which debtor households service their debts matters for macroeconomic performance. A Kaleckian growth model is modified to incorporate working households who borrow to finance consumption that is determined, in part, by the desire to emulate the consumption patterns of more affluent households. The impact of this behavior on the sustainability of the growth process is then studied by means of a numerical analysis that captures various dimensions of income inequality. When compared to previous contributions to the literature, our results show that the way in which debtor households service their debt has both quantitative and qualitative effects on the economy’s macrodynamics. |
| Keywords: | Consumer debt, emulation, income distribution, Golden Age regime, Neoliberal regime, expenditure cascades, growth |
| JEL: | E12 E44 O41 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:31 |
| By: | Kazuhiro Kurose (Tohoku University); Naoki Yoshihara (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the validity of the factor price equalisation theorem (FPET) in relation to capital theory. Additionally, it presents a survey of the literature on Heckscher–-Ohlin-–Samuelson (HOS) models that treat capital as a primary factor, beginning with Samuelson (1953). Furthermore, this paper discusses the Cambridge capital controversy, which contends that marginal productivity theory does not hold when capital is assumed to be as a bundle of reproducible commodities instead of as a primary factor. Consequently, it is shown that under this assumption, the FPET does not hold, even when there is no reversal of capital intensity. This paper also demonstrates that the recent studies on the dynamic HOS trade theory generally ignore the difficulties posed by the capital controversies and are thereby able to conclude that the FPET holds even when capital is modelled as a reproducible factor. Our analysis suggests that there is a need for a basic theory of international trade that does not rely on factor price equalisation and a model that formulates capital as a bundle of reproducible commodities. |
| Keywords: | factor price equalisation, capital as the bundle of reproducible commodities, reswitching of techniques, capital reversing |
| JEL: | B51 D33 F11 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2016-4 |
| By: | Joseph E. Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | After short-term interest rates in many advanced economies fell below 1 percent, central banks turned to quantitative easing (QE) to support economic growth. They purchased massive and unprecedented amounts of long-term bonds in an effort to reduce long-term borrowing costs. Nevertheless, recovery from the Great Recession proved disappointingly slow. Recently, some central banks have pushed short-term interest rates slightly below zero to provide an additional boost to growth. The slow recovery and the turn to negative rates have raised questions about the benefits of QE bond purchases and whether their effectiveness has reached a limit. Gagnon reviews the outpouring of research on QE and its effects and finds overwhelming evidence that QE does ease financial conditions and supports economic growth. The channels are similar to those of conventional monetary policy. QE can be especially powerful during times of financial stress, but it has a significant effect in normal times with no observed diminishing returns. Rarely, if ever, have economists studying a specific question reached such a widely held consensus so quickly. But this consensus has yet to spread more broadly within the economics profession or the wider world. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb16-4 |
| By: | Alberto Paloni; John Ebireri |
| Abstract: | According to mainstream economic theory, development of the banking sector is essential to fund innovation and technological development, especially in developing countries. In turn, this is expected to cause a shift in comparative advantage towards more sophisticated export goods. Moreover, as financial development relaxes firms’ liquidity constraints, the expectation is that this would result in a greater capacity to export and hence diversification in the export basket. Alternative economic theories are more critical. On the basis of a different conceptualisation of technological advancement which emphasises the centrality of learning and the tacit character of technology, they conclude that financial liberalisation policies would not make more finance available for innovative activities. To the contrary, the main beneficiaries of such policies would be firms employing simpler technologies and making low value added products. Thus, financial development is more likely to prevent an improvement in the degree of sophistication of a country’s export basket. Moreover, as finance is directed towards activities in which the country is already competitive, diversification of the export basket is also hindered. Our empirical analysis provides support for these heterodox theories. Recent empirical work by mainstream researchers also finds that banking sector development forces countries to specialise in accordance with their existing comparative advantage. However, mainstream and heterodox economic theories reach opposite conclusion on whether this is a beneficial process. |
| Keywords: | bank development, export sophistication, export concentration, technological progress, developing countries |
| JEL: | B5 O1 O3 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gla:glaewp:2016_10 |
| By: | Yekaterina Chzhen; Sudhanshu Handa; Emilia Toczydlowska; Zlata Bruckauf; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre |
| Abstract: | With income inequality increasing and children exposed to higher risks of poverty and material deprivation than the population as a whole in the majority of European countries, there is a concern that income inequality among children has worsened over the financial crisis. This paper presents results on the levels of bottom-end inequality in children’s incomes in 31 European countries in 2013 and traces the evolution of this measure since 2008. The relative income gap worsened in 20 of the 31 European countries between 2008 and 2013. Social transfers play a positive role in reducing income differentials, as post-transfer income gaps are smaller than those before transfers, especially in countries like Ireland and the United Kingdom. Countries with greater bottom-end income inequality among children have lower levels of child well-being, and higher levels of child poverty and material deprivation. |
| Keywords: | child poverty; child well-being; income distribution; income groups; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa842 |
| By: | Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS - UNLP y CONICET); Guillermo Cruces (CEDLAS - UNLP y CONICET); Leopoldo Tornarolli (CEDLAS - UNLP y CONICET) |
| Abstract: | After a decade of strong progress toward the goal of reducing the high levels of income disparities, there are clear signs of a deceleration in the pace of inequality reduction in Latin America. This paper argues that the deceleration is the result of two set of reasons. First, several of the driving factors of the fall in inequality in the 2000s have lost strength, due to “natural” motives; and second, the external conditions faced by the Latin American economies have worsened in the early 2010s, making further reductions in inequality more difficult. |
| JEL: | D63 I31 J11 J21 J31 J82 N36 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0198 |
| By: | Asfaw, Solomon; McCarthy, Nancy; Paolantonio, Adriana; Cavatassi, Romina; Amare, Mulubrhan; Lipper, Leslie |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates factors that impact cropland, labour and income diversification decisions and subsequent impacts on welfare. We use geo-referenced household data collected in 2011 from Malawi. The results show that measures of climate risk generally increase diversification across labour, cropland and income indicating that rainfall riskiness is a “push” factor for these indices. Our results also reveal that “pull” factors such as household wealth and education status of the household generally increase diversification across labour, land and income. Results also show that vulnerability to poverty is lower in environments with greater climate variability. Availability of services and support from rural institutions tends to increase diversification and reduce vulnerability to poverty. Looking at welfare measures as a function of diversification indices, all three measures of diversification increase consumption per capita, but income diversification has the strongest impacts on current consumption per capita and in reducing vulnerability to poverty. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, diversification, impact, Malawi, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Q01, Q12, Q16, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:230216 |
| By: | Ben Campbell (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | There tends to be an evolution occurring with respect to how people view local and organic. Since the inception of organic as a mainstream item, organic has been marketed to a large extent as helping the world through less pesticide use and more environmentally friendly production practices, while local has been viewed as helping the community and providing fresher product. Research from UConn (Lingqiao Qi, Ben Campbell, and Yizao Liu) shows that consumers that are altruistic (e.g. care about others) and biospheric (e.g. care about the environment) are more likely to purchase local over organic. This transformation seems to indicate that local seems to be expanding to fill the role of environmental stewardship, while also helping the community. The continued evolution of local and organic will be interesting over the next couple of years. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zwi:outrep:39 |
| By: | Gerasim A. Mkrtychyan (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces an original methodology for assessing the organizational culture of an entrepreneurial university. Methods for the assessment of values in research activity and of resistance to organizational change have been developed. The study of values and characteristics of resistance to change was conducted on the academic staff of the faculties of Economics and Management at the Nizhny Novgorod campus of the Higher School of Economics. It was found that the campus professors' academic orientation in research activity dominates their entrepreneurial orientation and that the strength of this influence differs amongst them, depending on their values. Additionally, greatest resistance in professors is caused by changes in human resources policy and management; this resistance is of moderate intensity and passive. The study confirms a positive relationship between the academic orientation of the "motivation" and "reward" values and the intensity of resistance to change in personnel policy and management. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial university, organizational culture, academic values, entrepreneurial values, resistance to change. |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:31edu2015 |
| By: | Klovland, Jan Tore (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | New monthly freight rate indices for 13 coal trade routes from Britain 1919-1939 are presented. The new indices form the basis of a review of the interwar freight markets and their relationship to the timing and severity of general business cycles. New time series of laid-up tonnage provide the background for this discussion. The Great Depression starting in the autumn of 1929 created a shipping cycle of unusual length and severity. Real freight rate indices used as a cross-check on productivity gains in shipping raise some doubt on previous estimates of productivity growth in British shipping in the interwar years. |
| Keywords: | Freight markets; business cycles. |
| JEL: | D24 N14 N74 |
| Date: | 2016–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2016_005 |
| By: | Fecher, Benedikt (DIW Berlin); Wagner, Gert G. (DIW Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In the New England Journal of Medicine, Longo and Drazen critically assessed the concept of data sharing. Their main concern is that a "new class of research person will emerge" that uses data, which were gathered by other researchers, for their own original research questions. The authors referred to this class of researcher as "research parasites". Longo and Drazen are right when they note that scientific data sharing deserves more recognition. However, they indicate that the most adequate form of recognition for data sharing is coauthorship. They suggest to work "symbiotically, rather than parasitically, with the investigators holding the data, moving the field forward in a way that neither group could have done on its own." Although this is true in particular cases, co-authorship as the sole instrument of credit will unnecessarily restrict the potential of data sharing. More suitable instruments for giving credit where credit is due would be a much greater appreciation of data sharing by research communities by introducing citations of data sets, bestowing awards for good datasets, and considering data "production" when assessing scientists' career prospects, funding applications, and research outputs. |
| Keywords: | data sharing, incentives, rewards, organism, culture |
| JEL: | B40 C80 Z11 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9895 |
| By: | Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | This study has investigated the impact of income inequality, globalization and environmental degradation on life expectancy in Pakistan. The study uses time series data for the period 1980-2015 for empirical analysis. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip and Perron (PP) unit root tests are employed for examining the order of integration of the variables. Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach is used for investigating the cointegration among the variables of the model. For examining the causal relationship Granger Causality test is used. The results of the study reveal that income inequality and environmental degradation have negative and significant impact on life expectancy in Pakistan. On the other hand globalization have positive and significant impact on life expectancy in Pakistan. The results of Granger causality show that there is unidirectional causality running from all independent variables to dependent variable. |
| Keywords: | life expectancy, income inequality, environmental degradation and globalization |
| JEL: | D33 F6 J17 Q5 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71112 |
| By: | McCorkle, Dean A.; Dudensing, Rebekka M.; Hanselka, Dan; Hellman, Ed W. |
| Abstract: | The motivation for this study centers on the labor- and cost-intensive nature of wine grape production and the potential opportunities for robotic technology to augment those production tasks that are manual labor-intensive. The objectives of this study are to: 1) develop cost of production budgets for two representative wine grape vineyards in Texas; 2) assess the economic viability of wine grape production under current operating conditions; 3) evaluate labor costs by production task; and 4) identify common production challenges and tasks that could be augmented with robotic technology development. |
| Keywords: | agricultural technology, wine grapes, simulation, feasibility, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Production Economics, Q12, Q16, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230005 |
| By: | Roberto Burguet; József Sákovics |
| Abstract: | We present a realistic and novel micro-structure for the market for athletes in league sports. In our trading mechanism the clubs bid for individual players, internalizing the effect that a player not hired might play for the competition. For inelastic talent supply, our (wage-minimizing) equilibrium supports the Coasian results of Rottenberg (1956) and Fort and Quirk (1995): talent allocation is independent of initial "ownership" and revenue sharing arrangements. When talent supply is elastic, revenue sharing decreases the aggregate amount of talent hired. This negative effect on the talent level may be efficiency enhancing when the competition for talent results in excess talent being hired. For the first time in the literature, we carry out our entire analysis using a newly formulated, unified club objective, incorporating both pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits. |
| Keywords: | sports leagues, club objectives, revenue sharing |
| JEL: | D43 J31 L13 L22 L83 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:902 |
| By: | Daniel Borowcyzk-Martins; Etienne Lalé |
| Abstract: | We extend a standard incomplete-market model featuring unemployment risk by allowing for an additional risk of involuntary part-time employment. A calibration of the model consistent with U.S. institutions and labor market dynamics shows that involuntary part-time work entails lower welfare losses relative to unemployment. This finding relies critically on the premium enjoyed by part-time workers in returning to full-time work. |
| Keywords: | Involuntary part-time work, Unemployment, Welfare |
| JEL: | E21 E32 J21 |
| Date: | 2016–04–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:16/673 |
| By: | Jan Kregel |
| Abstract: | To the extent that policymakers have learned anything at all from the Great Depression and the policy responses of the 1930s, the lessons appear to have been the wrong ones. In this public policy brief, Director of Research Jan Kregel explains why there is still a great deal we have to learn from the New Deal. He illuminates one of the New Deal's principal objectives--quelling the fear and uncertainty of mass unemployment--and the pragmatic, experimental process through which the tool for achieving this objective—directed government expenditure--came to be embraced. In the search for a blueprint from the 1930s, Kregel suggests that too much attention has been paid to the measures deployed to shore up the banking system, and that the approaches underlying the emergency financial policy measures of the recent period and those of the 1930s were actually quite similar. The more meaningful divergence between the 1930s and the post-2008 policy response, he argues, can be uncovered by comparing the actions that were taken (or not taken, as the case may be) to address the real sector of the economy following the resolution of the respective financial crises. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levppb:ppb_141 |
| By: | Ash, Michael (Department of Economics and School of Public Policy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst); Boyce, James K. (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst and Political Economy Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Using matched facility-level data from the US EPA Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) and the US Equal Employment Opportunity Commission EEO-1 database, we assess (1) the trade-off between jobs and environmental quality and (2) the extent to which the distribution of the benefits of employment in industrial production mirrors the distribution of the costs of exposure to hazardous byproducts of industrial activity in the dimension of race and ethnicity. We find no evidence that facilities that create higher pollution risk for surrounding communities provide more jobs in aggregate. The share of pollution risk accruing to ethnic or racial minority groups typically exceeds the share of employment and substantially exceeds the share of good jobs held by members of those groups. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ums:papers:2016-03 |
| By: | Arias, Jonas E.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Trabandt, Mathias |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation expectations, a fall in nominal wage growth, and a favorable supply-side shock. We show that the macroeconomic effects of persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Finally, we discuss policy options to mitigate these effects. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Expectations ; Wages ; Productivity ; Disin ation ; Monetary Policy ; Liquidity Trap ; DSGE Model |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1162 |
| By: | Sahrbacher, Christoph; Brady, Mark; Dong, Changxing; Sahrbacher, Amanda |
| Abstract: | An indicator of soil fertility is the content of organic matter measured by the share of carbon in the soil, which is negatively affected by many conventional land management practices. As those heavily depend on individual land use decisions, the agent-based model of regional structural change AgriPoliS is applied to assess carbon losses resulting from behaviors and interactions of individual farms. The extended model now considers nitrogen input and the development in soil’s carbon content. Three scenarios are implemented where farms have either to use 7%, 15% or 25% of their land as ecological focus area (EFA). Results show that although carbon losses continue at a slower pace under the 7%-scenario, 25% of the land is to be set aside to stop them completely. However this implies short-term income losses for farmers but better plant resistance and improved soil productivity in the long-run if soil organic matter can be maintained. |
| Keywords: | soil organic carbon, CAP, agent-based modelling., Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q24, Q18, C63, Q57., |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212284 |
| By: | Damien Challet |
| Abstract: | This contribution discusses in what respect Econophysics may be able to contribute to the rebuilding of economics theory. It focuses on aggregation, individual vs collective learning and functional wisdom of the crowds. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.01052 |
| By: | Erdenesaikhan Naidansuren (Environment and Security Center of Mongolia); Onon Bayasgalan (Wildlife Conservation Society) |
| Keywords: | Sustainable herding, Mongolia |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160460 |
| By: | Philip Ernst; Larry Shepp |
| Abstract: | Using a bondholder who seeks to determine when to sell his bond as our motivating example, we revisit one of Larry Shepp's classical theorems on optimal stopping. We offer a novel proof of Theorem 1 from from \cite{Shepp}. Our approach is that of guessing the optimal control function and proving its optimality with martingales. Without martingale theory one could hardly prove our guess to be correct. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.00762 |
| By: | Anders Herlitz (Department of Philosophy, Linguistics and Theory of Science, University of Gothenburg and Department of Philosophy, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey); David Horan (Geary Institute for Public Policy and the School of Politics and International Relations, University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Numerous theories of distributive fairness promote the idea that we ought to give extra weight to benefits to the worse off and can thereby be seen as promoting gap closures. This paper underlines the relevance of making a distinction between attainable and ideal target levels for individuals in populations affected by distributive fairness and show that in cases of scarce resources, theories that promote aggregate gap closures and prioritization of the worse off can in view of this distinction be interpreted in three mutually inconsistent ways. |
| Keywords: | distributive fairness, equality, priority setting, capped objectives and social choice |
| JEL: | D63 D71 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201608 |
| By: | Marco Savioli (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); Roberto Patuelli (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Economic processes, consisting of interactions between human beings, exploit the social capital of persons endowed with specific cultures, identities and education. By taking into account this complexity, we focus on the role of institutions and policymaking in the building of social capital and its relevance to the fulfilment of their objectives. Social capital, however, is elusive and has several dimensions with which to interpret its multifaceted functions in economics and society. We cannot forget that social capital is sometimes even undesirable for society, for instance when unethically used. Even so, it is widely accepted that social capital has stable and positive effects. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-10 |
| By: | Guido Neidhöfer (School of Business & Economics, Freie Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Countries with high income inequality also show a strong association between parents’ and children’s economic well-being; i.e. low intergenerational mobility. This study is the first to test this relationship in a between and within country setup, using harmonized micro data from 18 Latin American countries spanning multiple cohorts. It is shown that experiencing higher inequality in childhood has a negative effect on intergenerational mobility as adults. Furthermore, the influence of economic growth and public education is evaluated: both have a positive, significant, and substantial effect on intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | D63 I24 J62 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0196 |
| By: | Boldizsár Artúr Szentgáli-Tóth (Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest) |
| Abstract: | During the last decades, several countries have entrenched a special subcategory of law, which is adopted by stricter procedural rules, than the requirements of the ordinary legislative process. These laws are enacted by qualified majority, by the consent of the two chambers of the legislation, they are subject to mandatory constitutional review before their promulgation, or additional safeguards are implemented in the ordinary legislative process. In my article, I would compare the experiences of three legal systems, France, Spain, and Hungary, which provide three different frameworks of qualified law. Nevertheless, I would provide further examples from Europe , Africa and Latin America to demonstrate better the diversity of legal concepts. My aim is to identify the most contested issues from the legal nature of qualified laws, and to seek the proper solutions of these issues, as well as an ideal model of qualified law.-Firstly, on the ground of different national experiences, I would seek for a broadly acceptable definition of qualified law. -Secondly, I would briefly compare the historical background of the three emerges. An important common point would be the role of qualified laws during any process of democratic transition.-Thirdly, the scope of qualified law differs significantly from country to country, consequently, I would continue with this issue by arguing for a narrower scope of qualified law. -Fourthly, qualified law may have a special position in the hierarchy of norms, somewhere between statutory and the constitutional level, so I would cover this aspect. I would focus on the level of precision of constitutional articles in this regard.-Furthermore, the separation of powers perspective of qualified laws would be taken into consideration: the neglect of two-third majority, and the mandatory a priory review.-As the main outcome, certain points would be highlighted for a potential constitution-drafting process. |
| Keywords: | Qualified law, organic law, cardinal law, democratic transition, comparative analysis, hierarchy of norms, constitutional bloc |
| JEL: | K10 K40 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3505659 |
| By: | Pham Khanh Nam (Environmental Economics Unit, University of Economics-HCMC) |
| Keywords: | Governance, Development, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb2016045 |
| By: | Flordeliza H. Bordey (Philippine Rice Research Institute); Cheryll C. Launio (Philippine Rice Research Institute); Eduardo Jimmy P. Quilang (Philippine Rice Research Institute); Charis Mae A. Tolentino (University of the Philippines); Nimfa B. Ogena (University of the Philippines) |
| Keywords: | Climate change, migration, Philippines |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160446 |
| By: | Kimhi, Ayal |
| Abstract: | After Israel became self-sufficient in food in the late 1960s, farmers started migrating out of agriculture while production continued to increase towards export markets. This process intensified considerably when foreign labor became available. Traditional production theory predicts that foreign workers replace local workers, but the number of Israeli hired farm workers has actually increased since the arrival of foreign labor. This paper develops a modified theoretical model in which farm labor is heterogeneous, so that changes in the number of foreign and local hired workers are not necessarily opposite in sign. The results of the model are consistent with the observation that the availability of foreign labor has led to an increase in the production and export of labor-intensive horticultural products. Farms became larget and more specialized, and this has led to labor specialization, with foreign workers doing manual tasks and Israeli hired employees doing mostly managerial and professional tasks. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211852 |
| By: | Brendon Farrell |
| Abstract: | Generally accepted depreciation methods do not factor in the Time Value of Money, despite the concept being a core principle of financial asset valuation. By applying the concept to depreciation, Depreciable Asset Value Models can be formulated, that allow depreciation to be calculated in a manner consistent with financial theory. While the Basic Depreciable Asset Value Model formulated within has its limitations, more complex models, which factor in a greater number of variables, can be formulated using its logic. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.00080 |
| By: | Lefebvre, M.; Biguzzi, C.; Ginon, E.; Gomez y Paloma, Sergio; Langrell, S. R. H.; Marette, S.; Mateu, G.; Sutan, A. |
| Abstract: | An experiment with 189 French consumers was conducted to analyse consumers' reaction to the transition towards Integrated Pest Management (IPM) as the standard in European farming. Results indicate high substitutability between IPM and organic tomatoes. IPM sales will benefit from the withdrawal of conventional produces from the market only if there is a significant reduction in the price of IPM compared to organic and/or an important increase in the shelf space dedicated to IPM. While information on IPM guidelines increases IPM products purchases, providing extra information on residue levels in IPM tomatoes has no further impact on consumers' choices. |
| Keywords: | Integrated Pest Management, Organic, Tomatoes, Sustainable Use of pesticides Directive, Multinomial probit, Real Choice Experiment, Laboratory Experiment, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, C91, D12, Q13, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212038 |
| By: | Secco, Laura; Abatangelo, Chiara; Pisani, Elena; Gallo, Diego; Pettenella, Davide; Gatto, Paola; Dare, Riccardo; Vidale, Enrico |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea15:207845 |
| By: | Wiggins, Steve; Keats, Sharada |
| Abstract: | Rural wages in developing countries not only directly affect the welfare of many of the (very) poor, but they also affect the welfare of others through their impact on costs of food production and hence food prices. Since manufacturing in low income countries often recruits labour from the countryside, rural wages set the minimum level of factory wages 3 necessary to attract labour, and hence costs of production and thereby the growth of manufacturing. Rural wages in much of Asia seem to have been rising notably over the last 25 years or longer, with signs in some countries of accelerating increases since the mid-2000s. This study compiles the evidence for this; then examines the influence of potential determinants, including changes in agricultural labour productivity, manufacturing, and rural working population, on rural wages. It concludes by discussing the possible implications of the results for rural poverty, food prices and the location of manufacturing |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212615 |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The North East Coastal Community Development Project aimed to improve sustainable livelihood and natural resource management in poor coastal communities, and Component B of the Tsunami-Affected Areas Rebuilding Project, which was designed to provide an emergency response to urgent post-tsunami reconstruction challenges. |
| Keywords: | tsunami-affected areas, sri lanka tsunami, neccdp, rebuilding, living conditions, social infrastructure, public services, rural development, livelihood development, women's participation, gender equality, gender mainstreaming, adb loan 2167, adb loan 2027 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157688 |
| By: | Pablo G. Bortz (University of San Martín, Argentina) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the financial assistance provided to Greece in the first two rescue packages granted by the Troika (European Union, European Central Bank and IMF). It looks particularly carefully at claims by Sinn that a third of the public credit granted to Greece financed its current account deficit, while another third funded capital flight by Greek nationals, with only the remaining third used to pay creditors. The paper shows that Sinn inflates the assistance given to Greece by mixing several different concepts in the total. It also critically reviews the claim that the assistance was used to finance the current account deficit or capital flight by Greek citizens. Realistic accounting shows that 54% of the financial assistance provided to Greece was used to repay (foreign) debt, while another 21% was used to recapitalize Greek banks (some of which were owned by foreign institutions). Other claims about the rescue package are also analysed in relation to the treatment of Greek and foreign banking exposure to sovereign debt. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:29 |
| By: | Jing Cao (Harvard China Project, Harvard University Center for the Environment and School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University, Beijing) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the potential impact of two environmental tax regimes on the movement of rural people to China's cities. The study models the impact of a fuel tax and an output tax on the country's economy to get a full picture of how they would affect people's livelihoods and welfare, and how this would, in turn, affect rural-urban migration. The study sheds light on the implications of future environmental taxes and how they would affect urbanization and "rural-urban" migration in China. The study finds that both proposed taxes would discourage the flow of migrants from China's countryside to its cities. This would therefore exacerbate the current distortions in the country's labour market, where there is a surplus of rural labour. A comparison of the impact of the two taxes shows the fuel tax to be more efficient in terms of reducing pollution emissions and their associated environmental and health impacts. It also produces less distortion in the rural-urban migration process than the output tax. The study therefore recommends that this would be the preferable policy. |
| Keywords: | environmental taxation, rural-urban, China |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb2016044 |
| By: | Jason Fletcher; Barbara L. Wolfe |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the relationship between family income and children’s non-cognitive (or socio-emotional) skill formation. This is an important gap, as these skills have been hypothesized to be a critical link between early outcomes and adult socioeconomic status. This paper presents new evidence of the importance of family income in the formation and evolution of children’s non-cognitive skills using a recent US panel dataset that tracks children between grades K-5. Findings suggest an important divergence in non-cognitive skills based on family income that accumulates over time and does not seem to be explained by children’s health status differences. |
| JEL: | I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22168 |
| By: | Peter Arcidiacono; Esteban M. Aucejo; V. Joseph Hotz |
| Abstract: | We examine differences in minority science graduation rates among University of California campuses when racial preferences were in place. Less-prepared minorities at higher-ranked campuses had lower persistence rates in science and took longer to graduate. We estimate a model of students' college major choice where net returns of a science major differ across campuses and student preparation. We find less-prepared minority students at top- ranked campuses would have higher science graduation rates had they attended lower-ranked campuses. Better matching of science students to universities by preparation and providing information about students' prospects in different major-university combinations could increase minority science graduation. |
| Keywords: | STEM majors; minorities; college graduation |
| JEL: | A22 I2 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:64178 |
| By: | Anabeth L. Indab (Resources, Environment and Economics Center for Studies, Inc. (REECS),Quezon City.); Aireen I. Guzman (Resources, Environment and Economics Center for Studies, Inc. (REECS),Quezon City.); Ricardo T. Bagarinao (Resources, Environment and Economics Center for Studies, Inc. (REECS),Quezon City.) |
| Keywords: | Pollution,Philippines |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb2016049 |
| By: | Markus K. Brunnermeier; Luis Garicano; Philip R. Lane; Marco Pagano; Ricardo Reis; Tano Santos; David Thesmar; Stijn Van Nieuwerberg; Dimitri Vayanos |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks’ domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt. Third, such requirements shrink even further if banks only hold the senior tranche of an internationally diversified sovereign portfolio – known as ESBies in the euro-area context. Finally, ESBies generate more safe assets than domestic debt tranching alone; and, insofar as the diabolic loop is defused, the junior tranche generated by the securitization is itself risk-free. |
| Keywords: | diabolic loop; sovereign debt crisis; government default; bank default; bailout; ESBies |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G28 H63 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:65863 |
| By: | Mullat, Joseph E. |
| Abstract: | A partially ordered set formalizes and generalizes the intuitive notion of ordering, sequencing, or arrangement of the elements in the set. In the present paper under Monotone (or Monotonic) System we understand a totality of sets of guests charity positions arranging guests utilities possessing monotone (monotonic) property, which reflects the dynamic nature of utilities. Utilities are increasing or decreasing along with the partial order induced by subsets of some general set. The theory produces Greedy type algorithms, which guarantee the optimal solution. |
| Keywords: | Game, Monotone, Greedy, System, Ordering |
| JEL: | C61 C71 |
| Date: | 2016–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70785 |
| By: | Kim, Minseong |
| Abstract: | For deriving equilibrium of sticky-price/monopolistic competition New Keynesian models, first-order conditions are often used. This paper shows that they may not be sufficient and presents a case out of a simple model where there exists no equilibrium. This is true even when Taylor rule is assumed. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian, sticky price, monopolistic competition, consistency, first-order conditions |
| JEL: | B41 C61 C62 E13 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70753 |
| By: | Cole, Stephen |
| Abstract: | Central bank forward guidance emerged as a pertinent tool for monetary policymakers since the Great Recession. Nevertheless, the effects of forward guidance remain unclear. This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. Agents forecast future macroeconomic variables via either the rational expectations hypothesis or a more plausible theory of expectations formation called adaptive learning. A standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is extended to include the financial accelerator mechanism. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance. The macroeconomic variables are overall more responsive to forward guidance under rational expectations than under adaptive learning. During a period of economic crisis (e.g. a recession), output under rational expectations displays more favorable responses to forward guidance than under adaptive learning. These differences are exacerbated when compared to a similar analysis without financial frictions. Thus, monetary policymakers should consider the way in which expectations and credit frictions are modeled when examining the effects of forward guidance. |
| Keywords: | Forward Guidance, Monetary Policy, Adaptive Learning, Expectations, Financial Frictions |
| JEL: | D84 E30 E44 E50 E52 E58 E60 |
| Date: | 2016–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70862 |
| By: | Crafts, Nicholas (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on the implications of EU membership for the UK. It concludes that membership has raised UK income levels appreciably and by much more than 1970s’ proponents of EU entry predicted. These positive effects stem from the EU’s success in increasing trade and the impact of stronger competition on UK productivity. The economic benefits of EU membership for the UK have far exceeded the costs of budgetary transfers and regulation. Brexit is risky and its impact would depend heavily on the terms negotiated and the use made of the policy space that it freed up. |
| Keywords: | Brexit; competition; income levels; SingleMarket; trade costs. JEL Classification: F15; N14; N74. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:280 |
| By: | Crampes, Claude; Moreaux, Michel |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:28916 |
| By: | May, Daniel; McCorriston, Steve |
| Abstract: | Global trade agreements in agriculture have been unsuccessful. Current explanations argue that this outcome reflects the fact that governments have motivations other than maximising social welfare. At the current state of the knowledge, there is not a suitable framework that can be used either to assess the veracity of these explanations or determine how these biases influence the international trade structure. The objective of this article is to fill this gap by proposing a formal international trade network adapted to study the issue of global agreements in agriculture. The network approach outlined here accounts for the bias of government policies towards farmers or consumers; but we also allow for intermediaries in agricultural markets that have the potential to exercise market power are largely ignored in current approaches to modelling agricultural trade. We show that accommodating these features of agricultural markets offers important insights in understanding why promoting free trade in agricultural markets has proved to be so elusive. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212451 |
| By: | Gulati, Ashok; Saini, Shweta |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212713 |
| By: | A.A. Savchenko (National Mining University); M.S. Zubariev (National Mining University) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of dump truck fleet of the open-pit mine, which possesses industrial real estates for technical maintenance and other operations, is provided. Several exploitation indexes are defined and analyzed subject to the corresponding mine. Basing on the provided analysis, factors and conditions, which define the production facility structure, are described. A list of production facility structures is provided. The influence of production facility structure on dump truck productivity is observed. Also some relations between zero mileage and mine areas for different hauling distances are provided. |
| Keywords: | production facility,dump truck,open-pit,mine,zero mileage,dump truck productivity |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01305950 |
| By: | Castaneda Aguilar,Raul Andres; Gasparini,Leonardo Carlos; Garriga,Santiago; Lucchetti,Leonardo Ramiro; Valderrama Gonzalez,Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the methodological literature on the estimation of poverty lines for country poverty comparisons in Latin America and the Caribbean. The paper exploits a unique, comprehensive data set of 86 up-to-date urban official extreme and moderate poverty lines across 18 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as the recent values of the national purchasing power parity conversion factors from the 2011 International Comparison Program and a set of harmonized household surveys that are part of the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean project. Because of the dispersion of country-specific poverty lines, the paper concludes that the value of a regional poverty line largely depends on the selected aggregation method, which ends up having a direct impact on the estimation of regional extreme and moderate poverty headcounts. |
| Keywords: | Regional Economic Development,ICT Applications,Pro-Poor Growth,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2016–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7621 |
| By: | Sheldon, Ian; Roe, Brian; Olimov, Jafar |
| Abstract: | In this paper, existing work on credence goods is extended to include a "diagnosis" stage whereby ill-informed consumers rely on a third party to certify that food products have beneficial characteristics. This compares to existing models of credence goods which focus only on a "treatment" stage, i.e., food is simply certified as having such characteristics. Adding the diagnosis stage allows for "deep capture" by food producers who attempt to influence regulatory outcomes on what quality claims can be made about food products: specifically an innovator, the “expert”, can expend resources to “nudge” regulatory assessment of quality samples in a positive direction, assuming also that there are economies of scope between innovation and influence. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212255 |
| By: | Zhao, Yuying |
| Abstract: | At present, China is facing a serious problem of financial exclusion in rural areas, which restricts the development of rural economy and even the comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development of the overall real economy. From the perspective of regional differences in Gansu and Jiangsu provinces and between these two provinces, this paper establishes the Index of Rural Financial Exclusion, and explores the relationship between the refined indicators. Combining the economic theory, this paper uses double logarithmic models to analyze empirically on the relationship between the balance of loans per person and two factors: the density of branches with respect to population and GDP per capita and then compares these two models. We use this model to discuss the driving factor that can help to alleviate rural financial exclusion in different regions. In this paper, comparative analysis, theoretical analysis, empirical analysis, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are methods used to analyze the statistical data issued by the China Banking Regulatory Commission. This paper integrates the analyses of rural financial exclusion in provinces and between provinces, and comes to these conclusions about the rural financial exclusion problem of Gansu Province and Jiangsu Province in micro and macro level: (1) the forms of rural financial difference between areas are diverse. The degree of financial exclusion in Gansu are higher than that in Jiangsu, (2) the policy-related loans issued in Gansu are effective, (3) deposits absorbed in areas that are highly financial excluded flow to the regions facing relatively slighter exclusion. The capital allocation function of rural financial markets in Gansu should be improved, (4) two indicators, balance of loans per capita and the number of financial institution branches per 10,000 populations, are positively related. If the number of financial institutions branches in Gansu Province is increased, the balance of credit per capita will be increased, further, it will alleviate rural financial exclusion effectively. |
| Keywords: | Rural finance， Financial exclusion， Regional differences， Double logarithmic model, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230134 |
| By: | Ma. Angeles O. Catelo (University of the Philippines Los Baños); Moises A. Dorado (University of the Philippines Los Baños); Elpidio Agbisit, Jr. (University of the Philippines Los Baños) |
| Keywords: | Philippines,Pollution control, piggeries |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016054 |
| By: | Michele Cincera; Anabela Marques Santos |
| JEL: | O31 O38 O52 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/229382 |
| By: | Phumsith Mahasuweerachai (Faculty of Management Sciences, Khon Kaen University); Rawadee Jarungrattanapong (Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University); Kansinee Guntawongwan (Chiang Mai University); Piyaluk Buddhawongsa (Chiang Mai University) |
| Keywords: | crowd out, farmer, Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160452 |
| By: | Li, Kai; Zhou, Jie-hong; Liang, Qiao; Huang, Zuhui |
| Abstract: | The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors, and may not be attributed to the Economic Research Service or the U.S. Department of Agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Food safety control, Governance structure, Farmer cooperative, Agricultural company, Family farm, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212046 |
| By: | Margaret M. Calderon (College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños); Nathaniel C. Bantayan (College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños); Florencia B. Pulhin (College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines Los Baños); Lourdes J. Cruz (University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Keywords: | Forestry, Carbon, Community-led conservation, Philippines |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160440 |
| By: | Marcos Vergara; Claudio Bonilla; Jean P. Sepúlveda (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo) |
| Keywords: | Double-sided moral hazard, Venture Capital, Equity Share |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dsr:wpaper:31 |
| By: | Carlo Vercellone (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Interview with Dr. Carlo Vercellone, one of the leading theorists of cognitive capitalism and economist at the CNRS Lab of The Sorbonne Economic Centre (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, CES). |
| Keywords: | commons, knowledge based economy, Common property, cognitive capitalism |
| Date: | 2015–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01304224 |
| By: | Otieno, David; Ogutu, Sylvester |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, policy makers have been reluctant to formulate animal welfare policies. This is despite potential benefits of such policies including increased domestic and global consumers’ demand for products that are compliant with humane treatment of animals. This study employed a choice experiment method to establish consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for animal welfare attributes in chicken. Data were drawn from 200 chicken consumers in Nairobi, Kenya and estimated using a random parameter logit model. The results indicate that consumers were willing to pay a premium for humanely-treated chicken. The consumers had a positive and significant preference for use of certified transportation means, humanely slaughtered chicken and animal welfare labelling. However, the consumers showed a negative preference for use of antibiotics in chicken production. These findings are vital for formulation of product differentiation strategies in the industry as well as food policy. |
| Keywords: | Animal-welfare, Chicken, Choice Experiment, Kenya, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, D18, D63, F18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212602 |
| By: | Claudio Raddatz; Rodrigo Vergara |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchep:59 |
| By: | Afzal, Muhammad; Ahmed, Tanvir; Ahmed, Gulzar |
| Abstract: | Global warming is exacerbating climate affect on agricultural productivity. The objective of present study is the empirical assessment of climate change on three major agricultural crops of Punjab, Pakistan. A variant of Cobb-Douglas production function is used for the panel data of the districts of Punjab covering period 1981 to 2012.Overall findings of the study reveal that temperature has positive impact on the production of wheat crops during the planting and harvesting stage. However, temperature negatively affects the production of wheat during the flowering stage. Rainfall has negative association with the production of wheat during all three stages. Further, results indicate that rainfall, minimum temperature and humidity positively affect the production of rice crop during planting and negatively affect during harvesting. Impact of rainfall during all three stages of cotton crop has positive effect on its production. Nevertheless, increase in the temperature during first and second stage has negative effect on the production of cotton crop, but during third stage it has positive impact. On the basis of empirical analysis, this study suggests that Government should conduct seminars and workshops for the awareness of farmers to mitigate the worse effect of climate change. Moreover, development of new varieties of seeds and allocation of more resources should be encouraged to provide the security against the problems of climate change. |
| Keywords: | wheat; Rice; Cotton; Temperature; Rainfall; Humidity; Production; Punjab |
| JEL: | Q15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70958 |
| By: | Ferreira Filho, Joaquim Bento; Freitas Vian, Carlos |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212026 |
| By: | Hubbert Doyle, Molly (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddpp:0012 |
| By: | Atz, Ulrich (Bank of England); Bholat, David (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending — direct lending between lenders and borrowers online outside traditional financial intermediaries like banks — first emerged in the United Kingdom and the world with the launch of Zopa in 2005. Our paper provides a quantitative analysis of nearly 14 million loan agreements. We lay bare the history of P2P lending from its beginning, showing the regional geography of P2P lending in the United Kingdom. We suggest that the history of P2P lending can shed light on financial innovation in general. We base our conclusions on four semi-structured interviews with the founders of the three most significant UK P2P platforms (Zopa, RateSetter, and Funding Circle). |
| Keywords: | Peer-to-peer lending; crowdfunding; innovation; fintech; big data |
| JEL: | G23 L26 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0598 |
| By: | Mohd Shahwahid H. O. (Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia) |
| Keywords: | haze, impact, Malaysia |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160416 |
| By: | Paweł Sakowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Robert Ślepaczuk (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; Union Investment TFI S.A.); Mateusz Wywiał (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw; Quedex Derivatives Exchange) |
| Abstract: | We find that detailed analysis of multi-factor models makes it possible to propose investment strategies based on equity risk premium disequlibrium. We examine two investment algorithms built on weekly data of world equity indices for emerging and developed countries in the period of 2000-2015. We create seven risk factors using additional data about market capitalisation, book value, country GDP and betas of equity indices. The first strategy utilises theoretical value of equity risk premium from seven-factor Markov-switching model with variables common for all countries and variables specific to developed/emerging countries. We compare theoretical with realised equity risk premium for a given index to undertake the buy/sell decisions. The second algorithm works only on eight risk factors and applies them as input variables to Markowitz models with alternative optimisation criteria (target risk, target return, maximum Sharpe ratio, minimum variance and equally weighted assets). Finally, we notice that the impact of risk factors on final results of investment strategy is much more important than the selection of a particular econometric model in order to correctly evaluate equity risk premium. |
| Keywords: | investment algorithms, multi-factor models, Markov switching model, asset pricing models, equity risk premia, risk factors, Markowitz model |
| JEL: | C15 G11 F30 G12 G13 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-09 |
| By: | Dag Øivind Madsen (Buskerud and Vestfold University College) |
| Abstract: | SWOT analysis has over a period spanning several decades enjoyed considerable popularity in the business community. In this paper management fashion theory is used as a theoretical lens to understand the history and evolution of SWOT as a management idea. The analysis shows that SWOT's evolution pattern diverges in several respects from that of other comparable management ideas. The findings from the analysis have several implications for research on SWOT and, more generally, management ideas and fashions. |
| Keywords: | management idea,SWOT analysis,management fashion,strategy tool |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01306102 |
| By: | Rishi Ram Kattel |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the adoption of rainwater harvesting (RWH), a technology that has relatively recently been introduced to farmers in Nepal. Using data from 282 farmers in four districts, the study employs a treatment-effects model to identify factors that influence the adoption of RWH and the impact of adoption on farm income. We find that the adoption of rain water harvesting is mostly driven by farmer training. Further, adoption of this technology more than doubles householdagricultural and livestock income. With incremental annual benefits of NRs. 69,456 (USD 700), this technology is viable from a household perspective. Adopters benefit from an increased supply of irrigation water, which allows them to diversify their crops from cereal production to high-value vegetable crops. Our analyses suggests that if 10 percent of households (7000 households) in an average rainfed district receivefarmer training, the net benefits from training in the district would be approximately NRs. 134,907,710 (USD 1.3 million) per year from adoption of RWH technology. Given the many weather-related uncertainties faced by rainfed farmers in Nepal, rain water harvesting is potentially a very useful climate adaptation strategy. |
| Keywords: | Rainwater harvesting, Rainfed agriculture, Technology adoption, Nepal |
| JEL: | C31 C36 D61 O13 Q16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snd:wpaper:102 |
| By: | Salois, Matthew; Baker, Kristi; Watkins, Kevin |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230103 |
| By: | Rawadee Jarungrattanapong (Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University); Siriporn Sajjanand (Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University) |
| Keywords: | human-elephant conflict, Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160462 |
| By: | Hubbert Doyle, Molly (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) |
| Date: | 2015–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddpp:0017 |
| By: | Pavel V. Shevchenko; Xiaolin Luo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we review pricing of variable annuity living and death guarantees offered to retail investors in many countries. Investors purchase these products to take advantage of market growth and protect savings. We present pricing of these products via an optimal stochastic control framework, and review the existing numerical methods. For numerical valuation of these contracts, we develop a direct integration method based on Gauss-Hermite quadrature with a one-dimensional cubic spline for calculation of the expected contract value, and a bi-cubic spline interpolation for applying the jump conditions across the contract cashflow event times. This method is very efficient when compared to the partial differential equation methods if the transition density (or its moments) of the risky asset underlying the contract is known in closed form between the event times. We also present accurate numerical results for pricing of a Guaranteed Minimum Accumulation Benefit (GMAB) guarantee available on the market that can serve as a benchmark for practitioners and researchers developing pricing of variable annuity guarantees. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.00339 |
| By: | Matthias Morys |
| Abstract: | We add a historical and regional dimension to the debate on the Greek debt crisis. Analysing Greece, Romania, Serbia/Yugoslavia and Bulgaria from political independence to WW II, we find surprising parallels to the present: repeated cycles of entry to and exit from monetary unions, government debt build-up and default, and financial supervision by West European countries. Gold standard membership was more short-lived than in any other part of Europe due to fiscal dominance. Granger causality tests and money growth accounting show that the prevailing pattern of fiscal dominance was only broken under international financial control, when strict conditionality scaled back the treasury’s influence; only then were central banks able to conduct a rule-bound monetary policy and stabilize their exchange-rates. The long-run record of Greece suggests that the perennial economic and political objective of monetary union membership can only be achieved if both monetary and fiscal policy is effectively delegated abroad. |
| Keywords: | fiscal dominance, gold standard, financial supervision, South-East Europe |
| JEL: | N13 N14 N23 N24 E63 F34 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:yorken:16/05 |
| By: | Carmela D'Avino |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the understanding of the international financial linkages created by US banks by looking at the geographical composition and structure of the balance sheet of foreign branches. The empirical investigation, which is based on a novel dataset containing balance sheet statistics of foreign branches by country of location, has a threefold objective. First, it provides geographical mapping and distribution of foreign activities of branches by host country by accounting also for those balance sheet items not included in the available international banking statistics, i.e. gross interoffice positions and transactions with third-countries. Secondly, this paper presents a classification of host countries by balance sheet structure of foreign offices. A partioning-based clustering analysis allows to identify 4 distinct types of foreign branches: liquidity importers, liquidity exporters, liquidity conduits and locally implanted. Lastly, the paper provides evidence in support of the fact that US branches’ banking foreign operations are a good measure of financial integration with US as they can significantly explain business cycle synchronisation between the host country and the US during the Great Recession. |
| Keywords: | US global banks, Foreign branches, Balance sheet structure, Contagion |
| JEL: | F33 F34 F36 F42 C23 C49 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2016:i:172 |
| By: | Nicos Christodoulakis (Athens University of Economics and Business; Hellenic Observatory; London School of Economics); Christos Axioglou (Ministry of Finance, Greece) |
| Abstract: | An alarming legacy of the austerity programs in the euro area is the vast disinvestment that has taken place over the recent years, and especially so in the peripheral economies. Unless it is quickly reversed, disinvestment not only hinders long-term growth but also undermines the prospects of a gradual reduction of unemployment and risks further imbalances in, and threats to, the monetary union. Combining a neoclassical Diamond model with labour market imperfections, the paper shows that unemployment is a function of capital investment under either CES or Cobb-Douglas production functions. A cross-section estimate for the euro area economies confirms the theoretical findings. |
| Keywords: | euro area; investment; unemployment; capital-labour substitution; production function |
| JEL: | E22 E24 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:205 |
| By: | Hardy, Deric; Ejimakor, Godfrey; Amoakon, Joel; Ralph, Okafor |
| Abstract: | As young adults, many college students are independently buying their food for the first time. What they buy, how, and where they buy food are dependent on a set of factors. One of the factors that influences how students buy food may be practices learned while living at home. Food buying is for the most part a new experience for college students. In order to better serve their customers, food service establishments and food outlets in and around college areas will need information on the food buying habits of students. It is also important to understand the preferred sources of food for college students. This study assesses factors that are important to college students in their food buying practices. |
| Keywords: | Food-at-home, Food-away-from-home, Nutrition Label, Food Price, Food Taste, Organic Food, Local Food, Small Farm, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2016–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230906 |
| By: | Martin T. Bohl; Thomas Ehrmann |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cqe:wpaper:4816 |
| By: | Yuichiro Yoshida (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University); Yuki Yamamoto (Graduate School of Fisheries and Environmental Sciences, Nagasaki University); Shinji Kaneko (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University) |
| Abstract: | None |
| Keywords: | data cleaning; |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hir:idecdp:6-1 |
| By: | Mtimet, Nadhem; Walke, Maria; Baker, Derek; Lindahl, Johanna; Hartmann, Monika; Grace, Delia |
| Abstract: | Aflatoxin is a human health threat in many developing countries. This study examines Kenyan milk consumers’ behaviour toward aflatoxin by way of choice experiments. Further, the willingness to pay for different types of milk and aflatoxin status awareness was assessed. Five attributes were selected to describe milk products: milk processing technique, fat content, packaging, price and aflatoxin-free certification. Results indicate that awareness of aflatoxin is high, and that consumers are willing to pay a significant premium for milk that is certified as aflatoxin-free. Results also show, however, that the substantial majority does not know how to avoid aflatoxin-contaminated milk. The results indicate a great need for further education and awareness-raising programs throughout the Kenyan dairy value chain, and a potential for market-based solutions to aflatoxin control in milk. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212504 |
| By: | Metaxas, Theodore |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses about Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) in European Organizations and how the Learning Process takes place in these European organizations. The questions set are: Is CSR already practiced by EU organizations in terms of the principles of CSR?. Is CSR relevant to organizations in this context? In order to satisfy the questions above the paper presents a comparative analysis of three case studies of European Organisations that follow and implement CSR main principles and criteria of success. |
| Keywords: | CSR, European Organisations, comparative analysis |
| JEL: | M14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71104 |
| By: | Stranieri, Stefanella; Banterle, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This is a working draft. Please do not cite without permission of the author. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, L14, Q13, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212058 |
| By: | Rieger, Jorg; Kuhlgatz, Christian |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of media coverage on the consumer demand for pork chops and chicken filet in the course of the German dioxin scandal in 2011. A media index is constructed to account for the dynamics of the media coverage for the first nineteen calendar weeks in 2011. The response of the German households is estimated with a dynamic correlated random effect Tobit model based on weekly panel data provided by the GfK and data on media coverage provided by Lexis Nexis. Our dataset contains detailed information on purchasing transactions and socio-economic characteristics of the consumer households. The empirical results show that unobserved heterogeneity is important to consider when analyzing the determinants of demand in times of a scandal. For both meat products, media had a significant negative effect on the propensity to consume as well as the quantity purchased. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic correlated random effects Tobit model, consumer demand, media, food scandal, panel data, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, L15, Y90, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212292 |
| By: | Lagos, Ricardo (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Zhang, Shengxing (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We provide empirical evidence of a novel liquidity-based transmission mechanism through which monetary policy influences asset markets, develop a model of this mechanism, and assess the ability of the quantitative theory to match the evidence. |
| Keywords: | Asset prices; Liquidity; Monetary policy; Monetary transmission |
| JEL: | D83 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2016–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:734 |
| By: | Tayebi, Zahra; Fulginiti, Lilyan E. |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this research is to determine the potential impact of weather variables on agricultural productivity for Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey and Syria. A translog production function was used in estimating TFP growth in agriculture over the period 1980-2010. Precipitation, temperature, drought and irrigation were included in the analysis. The results indicate increasing agricultural productivity during the period with innovations contributing approximately 30% to agricultural output growth. Temperature and precipitation play a significant role in agricultural production and most frequent extreme drought episodes and irrigation affect, substantially, agricultural productivity growth in the region. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity, Climate change, Greater Middle East, Stochastic frontier, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230019 |
| By: | Shaufique Sidique (Institute of Agricultural and Food Policy Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia); Kusairi Mohd Noh (Universiti Putra Malaysia); Gazi Md Nurul Islam (Universiti Putra Malaysia); Aswani Farhana Mohd Noh (Universiti Putra Malaysia) |
| Keywords: | Artificial reefs, fishers, Malaysia |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160432 |
| By: | Matteo Cominetta |
| Abstract: | Contagion has mostly been interpreted and tested as a break from a stable linear correlation of financial markets caused by an extraordinary shock. This paper argues that quantile regression can provide a tool to investigate alterations in other features of financial returns’ distribution caused by extraordinary shocks, thus providing additional understanding of the mechanism of financial shock propagation and its instability. Applying the technique to stock market returns, we find evidence that jumps in uncertainty have powerful contagious effects of a form different from an increase in markets' correlation. These effects would not be detectable in standard contagion tests that search for increases in market correlation. |
| Keywords: | Contagion, Correlation Analysis, Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | F30 C10 G10 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:12 |
| By: | Antonelli, Cristiano; David, Paul (University of Turin) |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:labeco:201512 |
| By: | Tatsuyoshi Matsumae,Ryo Hasumi |
| Abstract: | Can fiscal stimulus improve unemployment? If so, to what extent does an increase in government spending improve unemployment? These answers are still ambiguous since opposite empirical evidences are shown (for instance, Monacelli et al. 2010, and Bruckner and Pappa 2012). This paper examines the effect of government spending on unemployment in the Japanese economy, introducing unemployment in a fashion of Gali et al. (2012) into a medium-scale DSGE model with the effect of government consumption to stimulate private consumption and the effect of government investment to improve temporarily productivity of private firms through the accumulation of public capital. Our study shows that both government consumption and investment improve unemployment and the channel of reducing unemployment is mainly attributed to the traditional effect through an increase in aggregate demand. On the other hand, the effect of government consumption to induce private consumption is small. We also find the temporal effect of government investment to the productivity of private firms raises real wage but does not have much influence on unemployment variations. It should be noted that our results might come from modeling unemployment based on the market power of workers. Finally, our results are robust whether the estimation period includes or excludes zero interest rate periods. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy, Unemployment, DSGE Model JEL Classification Numbers: E6, E2, H3 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esj:esridp:329 |
| By: | Fischer, A.M. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the question of aid effectiveness through a comparative historical analysis of the external financing constraints of two icons of development studies: South Korea and Brazil. The selection of these contrasting cases is based on a method of difference, designed to examine the predicaments of two countries attempting similar developmentalist strategies of sustained industrial policy through successive stages of industrialization, but with differences in amounts of aid supporting such strategies. This approach differs from the standard approach in the literature of examining economic performance among aid recipient countries and it is adopted as a means to highlight the challenges that some of the most successful and advanced late industrialisers of the post-war era have faced in the absence of aid. The comparison draws on an analytical framework that locates aid effectiveness in the interaction of both aid absorption (via current accounts deficits) and development strategy (via industrial policy), the latter based on the premise that unconstrained strategies of post-war late industrialisation have exhibited inherent structural tendencies to generate merchandise trade deficits. The interaction establishes an important, yet mostly overlooked, symbiosis between global redistribution and development. This symbiosis is then demonstrated by the historical analysis of the external accounts of the two cases, which constitutes the original empirical contribution of the article given that inductive historical analysis of actual interactions between aid flows (or lack thereof) and external accounts has been essentially absent in the aid literature. Similarly, the literatures on industrial policy and developmental states tend to exhibit a domestic productionist bias that has also shunned serious analyses of the role of aid in supporting successful late industrialisation experiences. Accordingly, the case of South Korea clearly illustrates the crucial role that aid played in buttressing rapid late industrialisation against structural external constraints and financial vulnerabilities. The contrasting case of Brazil clearly demonstrates the constraints faced by late industrialising countries in the absence of generous supplies of aid and/or stable, secure and affordable finance. The conclusion reflects on some of the wider implications of these insights and also offers some comparative reflections on China as an alternative model for dealing with similar constraints. |
| Keywords: | Aid (official development assistance), redistribution, political economy of development, industrialization and industrial policy, international finance and development finance, balance of payments, structuralist macroeconomics, South Korea |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:euriss:80053 |
| By: | Szameitat, Jörg (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "The current migration of refugees will challenge the German labor market in new ways. Firms will be facing a heightened degree of cultural diversity. Having to deal with new employees of probably unknown cultural origin will most likely test firms' organizational and social skills. This puts new emphasis on the task of managing diversity. The initial goal of diversity management was to establish equal chances for minorities in the labor market. Interpreting social diversity as an economic resource has by now (also) rendered diversity management an instrument to increase a firm's productivity. Based on expert interviews in German firms, this report describes the motives for and different kinds of diversity management that can be identified empirically and how they relate to different degrees of social closure in hiring processes. The theoretical backdrop is the connection between diversity and social closure in a firm. Analyzing the interviews results in a typology of firms that differ in attitude towards and motive for diversity management as well as in how they handle diversity and how socially closed they are, and thereby expanding a typology of diversity management by Thomas and Ely (1996) by two types. The results suggest that a sustainable usage of diversity benefits of two factors: A confrontation with diversity brought about by political or historical circumstances on the one hand and an idealistically motivated positive appreciation of diversity on the other." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Diversity Management, Personalpolitik, soziale Ausgrenzung, kulturelle Faktoren, Personalbeschaffung |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:201606 |
| By: | Trotter, Ian Michael |
| Abstract: | Este estudo pretende estimar os efeitos de possíveis resultados das negociações da rodada de Doha nas cinco regiões brasileiras usando um modelo de equilíbrio geral. As simulações sugerem um aumento do bem-estar mundial equivalente a USD 826 bilhões se as tarifas de importação e subsídios a exportação desaparecem inteiramente em todo mundo, com um aumento de USD 19 bilhões no Brasil. Porém, as simulações mostram que os ganhos beneficiam principalmente as regiões sudeste e sul. Enquanto simulações sem mobilidade de fatores primários dentro do Brasil mostram aumentos no bem-estar e no PIB em todas as regiões brasileiras, as simulações com livre mobilidade dos fatores trabalho e capital no Brasil sugerem uma redução no bem-estar nas regiões centroeste, norte e nordeste, e uma redução no PIB das regiões centroeste e norte. |
| Keywords: | International Development, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ufvdwp:233830 |
| By: | Nicholas Ford; Charles Yuji Horioka |
| Abstract: | This article shows that global financial markets cannot, by themselves, achieve net transfers of financial capital and real interest rate equalisation across countries and that the integration of both global financial markets and global goods markets is needed to achieve net transfers of capital and real interest rate equalisation across countries. Thus, frictions (barriers to mobility) in one or both of these markets can impede the net transfer of capital between countries, produce the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) finding of high saving-investment correlations, and prevent real interest rates from being equalised across countries. Moreover, frictions in global goods markets can explain why real exchange rates deviate from PPP (purchasing power parity) for extended periods of time and can therefore also explain the PPP puzzle. Thus, we are able to resolve 2 of Obstfeld and Rogoff’s (2000) “6 major puzzles in macroeconomics” with essentially the same explanation. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0969 |
| By: | Valdivia, Corinne; Kengo, Milton; Jimenez, Elizabeth; Turin, Cecilia |
| Abstract: | People in rural communities negotiate the effects of a changing climate, of markets and other events that affect their livelihoods. These contexts are often uncertain and risky, and the decision makers are vulnerable. This presentation shares experiences with rural communities in the Andes, and in Kenya, using a similar framework, to create information that is relevant to local decision makers, through a process that builds trust, by connecting local and scientific knowledge. One experience focuses on translational research for information on innovations, while the second focuses on community processes to understand sources of vulnerability and potential practices that contribute to adaptation and resilience. Participatory research approaches aim to build human, social and political capitals while producing salient information for local decision makers. These cases used techniques that acknowledge potential gender, ethnicity, life cycle, and vulnerability status. The cases are set up to compare outcomes across landscapes shaped by agroecological conditions, markets, and policies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212725 |
| By: | Liangliang Jiang; Ross Levine; Chen Lin |
| Abstract: | Does an intensification of competition among banks increase or decrease liquidity creation? By integrating the dynamic process of interstate bank deregulation that lowered barriers to competition across U.S. states over the 1980s and 1990s with the gravity model of the geographic expansion of banks, we construct time-varying measures of the competitive pressures facing each individual bank. We find that regulatory-induced competition reduced liquidity creation. Consistent with some theories, we also find that the liquidity-destroying effects of competition are mitigated among more profitable banks and heightened among smaller banks. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22195 |
| By: | Griffin, Terry; Ibendahl, Gregg; Stabel, Jayce |
| Keywords: | profitability, transition probabilities, Markov, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230108 |
| By: | Sproul, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Includes Contact Info for Unposted Slides that are Available Upon Request |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc016:233769 |
| By: | Karoline Mitterer; Anita Haindl |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clr:mwugar:151 |
| By: | Khanal, Narayan Prasad; Maharjan, Keshav Lall |
| Abstract: | Sustainable intensification is considered a key strategy to harmonize economic and environmental goals in rice-wheat cropping system in the developing countries. This strategy encourages farmers to grow spring season crops in the land remaining fallows after harvesting wheat. This paper explores the impact of climatic, demographic, economic and institutional variables on area under spring season crops. Data for the study were collected from 640 households spreading across the eight Tarai districts of Nepal in 2010. The major crops grown in the spring season are mungbean, maize and rice, and farmers allocate difference amount of their land for these crops. So, three crops specific regressions were modeled through Tobit regression with the assumption that households’ allocate their lands considering the potential benefit they get from these crops during the spring reason. Result shows that rainfall has positive impact on maize and rice; whereas, it is negative on mungbean. Similarly, this study reveals that male-headed households allocate larger amount of their lands for each of these crops than female-headed households. This is due to better access of fertilizers and training to male-headed households. Moreover, higher operational holders allocate more land for the spring season crops as compared to their counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Spring season, gender, cropping system, tobit model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229068 |
| By: | Phumsith Mahasuweerachai (Department of Economics, Faculty of Management Sciences, Khon Kaen University); Piyaluk Buddhawongsa (Chiang Mai University) |
| Keywords: | farmer, flood adaptation, Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160430 |
| By: | Roman M. Sheremeta (Weatherhead School of Management, Case Western Reserve University and Economic Science Institute, Chapman University); Neslihan Uler (Institute for Social Research, the University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of taxes and wasteful government spending on charitable giving. In our model, the government collects a flat-rate tax on income net of donations and wastes part of the tax revenue before redistribution. The model provides theoretical predictions which we test in a framed field experiment. The results of the experiment show that the tax rate has a weak and insignificant effect on giving. The degree of waste, however, has a large, negative and significant effect on giving, with the relationship moderated by the curvature in the utility function. |
| Keywords: | giving, charity donations, tax, waste, redistribution, experiments |
| JEL: | C90 D64 H41 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:16-07 |
| By: | Artavia-Mora, Luis (ISS, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Bedi, Arjun S. (ISS, Erasmus University Rotterdam); Rieger, Matthias (ISS, Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | We test whether humans are intuitively inclined to cooperate with or punish strangers using a natural field experiment. We exogenously vary the time available to help a stranger in an everyday situation. Our findings suggest that subjects intuitively tend to help but behave more selfishly as thinking time increases. We also present suggestive evidence that time pressure can increase rates of punishment. We discuss our results with respect to findings in the lab on cognitive models of dual-processing and the origins of human cooperation. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, punishment, response time, dual-process of cognition, natural field experiment |
| JEL: | D03 D63 D64 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9871 |
| By: | Han, Yang; Bi, Xiang |
| Keywords: | Willingness to pay, price premium, seafood, food safety incidents, effect, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2016–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230120 |
| By: | Che, Yi; Lu, Yi; Pierce, Justin R.; Schott, Peter K.; Tao, Zhigang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of trade liberalization on U.S. Congressional elections. We find that U.S. counties subject to greater competition from China via a change in U.S. trade policy exhibit relative increases in turnout, the share of votes cast for Democrats and the probability that the county is represented by a Democrat. We find that these changes are consistent with Democrats in office being more likely than Republicans to support legislation limiting import competition or favoring economic assistance. |
| Keywords: | China ; Voting ; Elections ; Import Competition ; Normal Trade Relations ; World Trade Organization |
| JEL: | F13 F16 D72 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-39 |
| By: | Janet Currie; Hannes Schwandt |
| Abstract: | Analysts who have concluded that inequality in life expectancy is increasing have generally focused on life expectancy at age 40 to 50. However, we show that among infants, children, and young adults, mortality has been falling more quickly in poorer areas with the result that inequality in mortality has fallen substantially over time. This is an important result given the growing literature showing that good health in childhood predicts better health in adulthood and suggests that today’s children are likely to face considerably less inequality in mortality as they age than current adults. We also show that there have been stunning declines in mortality rates for African-Americans between 1990 and 2010, especially for black men. The fact that inequality in mortality has been moving in opposite directions for the young and the old, as well as for some segments of the African-American and non-African-American populations argues against a single driver of trends in mortality inequality, such as rising income inequality. Rather, there are likely to be multiple specific causes affecting different segments of the population. |
| JEL: | J11 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22199 |
| By: | Crampes, Claude; Moreaux, Michel |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30415 |
| By: | Sergio Rubens Stancato de Souza; Thiago Christiano Silva; Benjamin Miranda Tabak; Solange Maria Guerra |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to measure systemic risk in networks composed of financial institutions. Our procedure combines the impact effects obtained from stress measures that rely on feedback centrality properties with default probabilities of institutions. We also present new heuristics for designing feasible and relevant stress-testing scenarios that can subside regulators in financial system surveillance tasks. We develop a methodology to extract banking communities and show that these communities are mostly composed of non-large banks and have a relevant effect on systemic risk. This finding renders these communities objects of interest for supervisory activities besides SIFIs and large banks. Finally, our results provide insights and guidelines that can be useful for policymaking |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:426 |
| By: | Lu, Liang; Reardon, Thomas; Zilberman, David |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc016:233763 |
| By: | John E. Roemer (Dept. of Political Science & Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Burak Unveren (Yildiz Technical University) |
| Abstract: | What are the long-term effects of policies intended to equalize opportunities among different social classes of children? To find out, we study the stationary states of an intergenerational model where adults are either White or Blue collar employees. Both adults and the state invest in their children’s education. Our analysis indicates that the major obstacle to equalizing opportunities in the long-run is private educational investment. Next we examine economies where only the state invests in education, motivated by the Nordic experience. In a majority of these economies, no child lags behind regarding future prospects, a theoretical result confirmed by simulations. |
| Keywords: | Equality of opportunity, intergenerational transfers, education, dynamic model |
| JEL: | H21 D63 I24 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2034 |
| By: | Maples, Joshua G.; Lusk, Jayson L.; Peel, Derrell S. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230138 |
| By: | Janet Hunter |
| JEL: | E6 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:62001 |
| By: | Yazhen Gong (Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy, c/o Department of Forest Resources Management, Faculty of Forestry,2425 main mall, University of British Columbia,Vancouver, V6T 1Z4, Canada) |
| Keywords: | China, cost, conservation |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160411 |
| By: | Manuel Reverberi; Silvia Sitton |
| Abstract: | In the following paper we use the dataset from IcesMo in order to present an in-depth overview of the living conditions of Modena families. We pay particular attention to those families who every month have to pay a hard-to-afford rent. Secondly, we try to estimate the local demand for social housing. In conclusion, we suggest some possible policies to carry out in order to solve housing problems. |
| Keywords: | housing policies, unaffordable rent, housing condition, social housing requirement, local survey |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:cappmo:0132 |
| By: | Liguo Lin (School of Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai) |
| Keywords: | taxation, China, pollution |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb2016041 |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Globalized production networks, or global value chains, provide an opportunity for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to upscale their business models and to grow across borders. This process can enhance SME competitiveness, create more jobs, and promote inclusive growth in developing Asia. The Asian Development Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute recognize the importance of integrating SMEs into global value chains. To provide pathways for such integration, this study examines ways of encouraging participation in value chains, and explores policy solutions to address the financial and nonfinancial barriers faced by these enterprises. |
| Keywords: | small and medium enterprise; global value chains; sme finance; production networks; supply chain finance; trade finance; SME internationalization |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157679-2 |
| By: | Vinish Shrestha (Department of Economics, Towson University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the status of current beer taxes in the U.S. by questioning how far away the present beer taxes are from the optimal taxes. Following the estimation of tax elasticity, I estimate the lifetime discounted costs that a heavy drinker levies on others through: 1) Years of life lost; 2) Social insurance system; 3) Drunk driving accidents; and 4) Forgone income taxes. The optimal level of beer tax ranges from 17.15 percent to 47.5 percent of the price per drink. Even the conservative estimates suggest that current beer taxes comprise only 16 percent of the external costs. |
| Keywords: | Externality, Beer Taxation, Efficiency. |
| JEL: | H21 H23 I10 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-09 |
| By: | Mao Xianqiang (Beijing Normal University); Guo Xiurui (Beijing Normal University) |
| Keywords: | Air Quality,Coal,Natural Gas,Policy |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016062 |
| By: | Marta Kahancová |
| Abstract: | This report was financed by European Comission grant no. VS/2014/0534.kah |
| Date: | 2016–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:19 |
| By: | Sproul, Thomas; Michaud, Clayton; Turvey, Calum |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc016:233765 |
| By: | Zacharias, Tom |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc016:233759 |
| By: | John Komlos |
| Abstract: | We estimate growth rates of real incomes in the U.S. by quintiles using the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) post-tax, post-transfer data as basis for the period 1979-2011. We improve upon them by including only the present value of earnings that will accrue in retirement and excluding items included in the CBO income estimates such as “corporate taxes borne by labor” that do not increase either current purchasing power or utility. We estimate a high and a low growth rate using two price indexes, the CPI and the Personal Consumption Expenditure index. The major consistent findings include what in the colloquial is referred to as the “hollowing out” of the middle class. According to these estimates, the income of the middle class 2nd and 3rd quintiles increased at a rate of between 0.1% and 0.7% per annum, i.e., barely distinguishable from zero. Even that meager rate was achieved only through substantial transfer payments. In contrast, the income of the top 1% grew at an astronomical rate of between 3.4% and 3.9% per annum during the 32-year period, reaching an average annual value of $918,000, up from $281,000 in 1979 (in 2011 dollars). Hence, the post-tax, post-transfer income of the 1% relative to the 1st quintile increased from a factor of 21 in 1979 to a factor of 51 in 2011. However, income of no other group increased substantially relative to that of the lowest quintile. Oddly, the income of even those in the 96-99 percentiles increased only from a multiple of 8.1 to a multiple of 11.3. We next estimate growth in welfare assuming diminishing marginal utility of income. A logarithmic utility function yields a growth in welfare for the middle class of roughly 0.01% to 0.07% per annum, which is indistinguishable from zero. With interdependent utility functions only the welfare of the 5th quintile experienced meaningful growth while those of the first four quintiles tend to be either negligible or even negative. |
| JEL: | D30 D60 E0 I31 N12 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22211 |
| By: | Romana Brait; Georg Feigl; Markus Marterbauer; Tobias Schweitzer |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clr:mwugar:152 |
| By: | Mohammed, Rezgar; Zheng, Yuqing |
| Abstract: | We examined the cross-national adoption of six major private food safety standards, focusing on the role of certifiers and international trade. Results based on a negative binomial model show that the number of domestic certification bodies, total food exports, and the proportion of food exports to North America had a positive effect on a country’s adoption of food safety standards. We also found that distance creates product differentiation for standards and therefore disadvantages developing countries in Africa and Asia for adopting standards. Providing these countries with better access to certifiers can alleviate this geographic disadvantage. |
| Keywords: | adoption, certification bodies, food exports, food safety standard, third-party certification, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Q13, Q17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229785 |
| By: | Modeste Dayé (CRED, University of Namur); Romain Houssa (CRED, University of Namur); Paul Reding (CRED, University of Namur) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the salient factors that characterize important aspects of firms’ access to external finance in developing countries. Cross-country data show that micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face more external financing constraints in Low Income Countries than in their rich counterparts. To explain this fact we distinguish both demand and supply factors underlying external financing constraints. We then argue for a catalytic role that development cooperation can play in alleviating these constraints. We present an illustration based on the policy instruments that have been used by development cooperation. Our particular interest is to document how well the Belgium Development Cooperation support of MSMEs compares to that provided by four other European countries: France, Germany, The Netherlands, and Sweden. We conclude with a discussion on the critical policy issues as regards the effectiveness of these interventions. |
| Keywords: | MSME, external finance, DFI, information asymmetry |
| JEL: | G23 O16 Y10 |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nam:befdwp:6 |
| By: | Haitao Yin (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Rui Zhao (Shanghai Jiao Tong University) |
| Keywords: | willingness to pay, eco labels |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr20160314 |
| By: | UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | This Report Card presents an overview of inequalities in child well-being in 41 countries of the European Union (EU) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). It focuses on ‘bottom-end inequality’ – the gap between children at the bottom and those in the middle – and addresses the question ‘how far behind are children being allowed to fall?’ in income, education, health and life satisfaction.Across the OECD, he risks of poverty have been shifting from the elderly towards youth since the 1980s. These developments accentuate the need to monitor the well-being of the most disadvantaged children, but income inequality also has far-reaching consequences for society, harming educational attainment, key health outcomes and even economic growth. A concern with fairness and social justice requires us to consider whether some members of society are being left so far behind that it unfairly affects their lives both now and in the future.This Report Card asks the same underlying question as Report Card 9, which focused on inequality in child well-being, but uses the most recent data available and includes more countries. |
| Keywords: | child poverty; child well-being; inequality; social inequality; |
| JEL: | I3 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inreca:inreca830 |
| By: | Imamverdiyev, Nizami; Anders, Sven; Glauben, Thomas; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Prehn, Soren |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyze the trade duration patterns of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports between 1995 and 2012. Using 4-digit HS code trade flow data we employ a discrete-time duration framework and probit models controlling for unobserved heterogeneity across bilateral trade relationships. The empirical results indicate that trade cost, local production factors, price competitiveness and experience significantly explain the short duration of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports. We find that the stability and thus sustainability of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports critically depends on maintaining good trade relationships and free of export restrictions with traditional trading partners, especially post-Soviet Union economies. |
| Keywords: | Wheat exports, trade duration analysis, probit, Kazakhstan, Crop Production/Industries, C41, Q17, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211788 |
| By: | Sandrine Jacob Leal (Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion); Mauro Napoletano (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of different regulatory policies directed towards high-frequency trading (HFT) through an agent-based model of a limit order book able to generate flash crashes as the result of the interactions between low- and high-frequency (HF) traders. We analyze the impact of the imposition of minimum resting times, of circuit breakers (both ex-post and ex-ante types), of cancellation fees and of transaction taxes on asset price volatility and on the occurrence and duration of ash crashes. In the model, low- frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch between fundamentalist and chartist strategies. In contrast, high-frequency traders activation is event-driven and depends on price fluctuations. In addition, high-frequency traders employ low-latency directional strategies that exploit market information and they can cancel their orders depending on expected profits. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that reducing HF order cancellation, via minimum resting times or cancellation fees, or discouraging HFT via financial transaction taxes, reduces market volatility and the frequency of ash crashes. However, these policies also imply a longer duration of flash crashes. Furthermore, the introduction of an ex-ante circuit breaker markedly reduces price volatility and removes ash crashes. In contrast, ex-post circuit breakers do not affect market volatility and they increase the duration of flash crashes. Our results show that HFT-targeted policies face a trade-o between market stability and resilience. Policies that reduce volatility and the incidence of flash crashes also imply a reduced ability of the market to quickly recover from a crash. The dual role of HFT, as both a cause of the flash crash and a fundamental actor in the post-crash recovery underlies the above trade-off . |
| Keywords: | High frequency trade; Flash crashes; Regulatory policies; Agent-based models; Limit order book; Market volatility |
| JEL: | G12 G01 C63 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3utlh0ehcn860pus6p2p683ade |
| By: | Sandrine Jacob Leal; Mauro Napoletano |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of different regulatory policies directed towards high-frequency trading (HFT) through an agent-based model of a limit order book able to generate flash crashes as the result of the interactions between low- and high-frequency (HF) traders. We analyze the impact of the imposition of minimum resting times, of circuit breakers (both ex-post and ex-ante types), of cancellation fees and of transaction taxes on asset price volatility and on the occurrence and duration of flash crashes. In the model, low-frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch between fundamentalist and chartist strategies. In contrast, high-frequency traders activation is event-driven and depends on price fluctuations. In addition, high-frequency traders employ low-latency directional strategies that exploit market information and they can cancel their orders depending on expected profits. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that reducing HF order cancellation, via minimum resting times or cancellation fees, or discouraging HFT via financial transaction taxes, reduces market volatility and the frequency of flash crashes. However, these policies also imply a longer duration of flash crashes. Furthermore, the introduction of an ex-ante circuit breaker markedly reduces price volatility and removes flash crashes. In contrast, ex-post circuit breakers do not affect market volatility and they increase the duration of flash crashes. Our results show that HFT-targeted policies face a trade-off between market stability and resilience. Policies that reduce volatility and the incidence of flash crashes also imply a reduced ability of the market to quickly recover from a crash. The dual role of HFT, as both a cause of the flash crash and a fundamental actorin the post-crash recovery underlies the above trade-off. |
| Keywords: | High-frequency trading, Flash crashes, Regulatory policies, Agent-based models, Limit order book, Market volatility |
| Date: | 2016–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2016/15 |
| By: | Artz, Georgeanne; Jacobs, Keri |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230053 |
| By: | Chen, Bo; Saghaian, Sayed H. |
| Keywords: | Rice, market integration, asymmetric price transmission, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229993 |
| By: | Mauricio Pérez Salazar |
| Date: | 2016–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000139:014508 |
| By: | Sandrine Jacob Leal (CEREFIGE-ICN Business School (Nancy Metz) France); Mauro Napoletano (OFCE Sciences Po & SKEMA Business School) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effects of different regulatory policies directed towards high-frequency trading (HFT) through an agent-based model of a limit order book able to generate flash crashes as the result of the interactions between low- and high-frequency (HF) traders. We analyze the impact of the imposition of minimum resting times, of circuit breakers (both ex-post and ex-ante types), of cancellation fees and of transaction taxes on asset price volatility and on the occurrence and duration of ash crashes. In the model, low- frequency agents adopt trading rules based on chronological time and can switch between fundamentalist and chartist strategies. In contrast, high-frequency traders activation is event-driven and depends on price fluctuations. In addition, high-frequency traders employ low-latency directional strategies that exploit market information and they can cancel their orders depending on expected profits. Monte-Carlo simulations reveal that reducing HF order cancellation, via minimum resting times or cancellation fees, or discouraging HFT via financial transaction taxes, reduces market volatility and the frequency of ash crashes. However, these policies also imply a longer duration of flash crashes. Furthermore, the introduction of an ex-ante circuit breaker markedly reduces price volatility and removes ash crashes. In contrast, ex-post circuit breakers do not affect market volatility and they increase the duration of flash crashes. Our results show that HFT-targeted policies face a trade-o between market stability and resilience. Policies that reduce volatility and the incidence of flash crashes also imply a reduced ability of the market to quickly recover from a crash. The dual role of HFT, as both a cause of the flash crash and a fundamental actor in the post-crash recovery underlies the above trade-off . |
| Keywords: | Hifgh frequency trading, Flash crashes, Regulatory policies, Agent based models, limit order book, Market volatility |
| JEL: | G12 G01 C63 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fce:doctra:16012 |
| By: | Vítor Castro (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE)); Rodrigo Martins (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and Group for Monetary and Fiscal Studies (GEMF)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the impact of elections on the dynamics of human development in a panel of 82 countries over the period 1980-2013. The incidence of partisan and political support effects is also taken into account. A GMM estimator is employed in the empirical analysis and the results point out to the presence of an electoral cycle in the growth rate of human development. Majority governments also influence it, but no clear evidence is found regarding partisan effects. The electoral cycles have proved to be stronger in non-OECD countries, in countries with less frequent elections, with lower levels of income and human development, in presidential and non-plurality systems and in proportional representation regimes. They have also become more intense in this millennium. |
| Keywords: | Human development; Political cycles; Elections; Panel data models. |
| JEL: | C33 D72 I31 O15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:6/2016 |
| By: | Miguel Delgado Helleseter; Peter Kuhn; Kailing Shen |
| Abstract: | When permitted by law, employers sometimes state the preferred age and sex of their employees in job ads. We study this practice using data from one Mexican and three Chinese job boards, showing that it is widely used to request both genders and is especially prevalent in jobs with low skill requirements. For example, on the job board serving less-skilled production and service workers in China, 72 percent of ads specified a preferred gender, and 77 percent listed both a minimum and maximum age. We also document a new stylized fact we call the age twist in gender profiling: firms' explicit gender requests shift dramatically away from women and towards men when firms are seeking older (as opposed to younger) workers. While some of this twist can be attributed to employers’ age-dependent requests for (female) beauty and (male) leadership, the timing of the shift suggests that young women’s movement into childbearing also plays a role |
| JEL: | J16 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22187 |
| By: | Andrew B. Bernard; Andreas Moxnes; Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a multi-country model of international trade that provides a simple micro-foundation for buyer-seller relationships in trade. We explore a rich dataset that identifies buyers and sellers in trade and establish a set of basic facts that guide the development of the theoretical model. We use predictions of the model to examine the role of buyer heterogeneity in a market for firm-level adjustments to trade shocks, as well as to quantitatively evaluate how firms' marginal costs depend on access to suppliers in foreign markets. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous firms, exporters, importers, sourcing costs, trade elasticity |
| JEL: | F10 F12 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1426 |
| By: | Delgado Helleseter, Miguel (California State University, Channel Islands); Kuhn, Peter J. (University of California, Santa Barbara); Shen, Kailing (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | When permitted by law, employers sometimes state the preferred age and sex of their employees in job ads. We study this practice using data from one Mexican and three Chinese job boards, showing that it is widely used to request both genders and is especially prevalent in jobs with low skill requirements. For example, on the job board serving less-skilled production and service workers in China, 72 percent of ads specified a preferred gender, and 77 percent listed both a minimum and maximum age. We also document a new stylized fact we call the age twist in gender profiling: firms' explicit gender requests shift dramatically away from women and towards men when firms are seeking older (as opposed to younger) workers. While some of this twist can be attributed to employers' age-dependent requests for (female) beauty and (male) leadership, the timing of the shift suggests that young women's movement into childbearing also plays a role. |
| Keywords: | gender, discrimination, age, China, Mexico, Internet, beauty, search, recruiting, screening |
| JEL: | J16 J63 J71 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9891 |
| By: | Cheryll C. Launio (Philippine Rice Research Institute); Constancio A. Asis, Jr. (Philippine Rice Research Institute); Rowena G. Manalili (Philippine Rice Research Institute); Evelyn F. Javier (Philippine Rice Research Institute) |
| Keywords: | Rice Straw, Cost Benefit analysis,Philippines |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160444 |
| By: | - |
| Keywords: | OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO DEL MILENIO, COOPERACION REGIONAL, PROYECTOS DE DESARROLLO, EVALUACION DE PROYECTOS, ESTADISTICA, DESARROLLO DE CAPACIDAD, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, REGIONAL COOPERATION, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, PROJECT EVALUATION, STATISTICS, CAPACITY BUILDING |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col093:40052 |
| By: | Shonchoy, Abu S.; Tsubota, Kenmei |
| Abstract: | This study quantitatively explores the changing population geography in Bengal, with a particular focus on Partition in India in 1947 and Independence of Bangladesh in 1971. Based on decadal census data from 1901 to 2001 at the district level, this paper explores how trends in regional population growth evolved with such historical events. Following Redding and Sturm (2008), Differences-in-Differences estimation is also employed. Estimation results show that there were different shocks on both sides and from both events. In West Bengal, the change in the regional population trends occurred in 1947 and remained similar thereafter. On the other hand, in East Bengal, the population growth became statistically significant after 1971. Further robustness checks show that the impacts were not uniform with respect to the distance from the border. Overall analyses show that the emergence of the international border in Bengal had asymmetric impacts on both sides. |
| Keywords: | Population, Independence movements, Separatism, Regional population dynamics, Border regions, Partition and independence |
| JEL: | F15 N95 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper590 |
| By: | Robert Sałek (Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management); Joanna Nowakowska-Grunt (Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management); Anna Brzozowska (Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management); Judyta Kabus (Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management); Anna Wiśniewska-Sałek (Czestochowa University of Technology, Faculty of Management) |
| Abstract: | Promotion and operations conducted alongside it, aiming at giving a business or product class and prestige, have accompanied economy for ages. After transition from statist economic policy to free market policy, its influence has also become visible in Poland. It has given a whole new dimension to promoted products. On the other hand, proper functioning of tourism aided by various economic instruments is possible only when the essence of the issue of tourism as a social and economic phenomenon is correctly understood. If by this term we mean management of tourist traffic, benefits and sales of tourism goods aided by, i.e. promotion (the most important marketing tool), we will understand the economic benefits. This paper is an attempt to analyze the process of management of tourist product promotion. There have been presented tools used in promotion which includes brand and advertisement, among others. There has also been analyzed the essence of promotion in tourism. |
| Keywords: | management, tourism, tourist product, promotion, marketing. |
| JEL: | M31 Z00 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:3406027 |
| By: | Monika Martišková; Mária Sedláková |
| Abstract: | This report was financed by European Comission grant no. VS/2014/0534. |
| Date: | 2016–04–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:20 |
| By: | Pedro Bento (Texas A&M University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | I develop a general equilibrium model in which patent protection can increase or decrease the costs of sequential innovation, original innovation, and imitation. Depending on these relative effects, protection can in theory increase or decrease markups, imitation, innovation, growth, and aggregate productivity. I discipline the model using data from several different sources, and find that weakening protection in the U.S. would lead to no change in markups and imitation, no change in long-run growth, a more than doubling of the number of firms, and an increase in aggregate productivity of 9 percent. |
| Keywords: | patent protection, firm size, productivity, innovation, imitation, competition |
| JEL: | O1 O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:txm:wpaper:20160411-001 |
| By: | Edouard Civel; Jérémy Elbeze |
| Abstract: | A strong cut in heat consumption can be realized by the thermal renovation of buildings: this article gives an assessment of energy savings achievable in the French residential stock and their associated investment costs. A bottom-up approach, using a dataset on material and labor costs for renovations and a thermal model (including a representation of the “rebound effect”) is applied to a description of existing dwellings in France. Renovation investment costs increase with the efficiency target of the housing stock: two inflection points are identified, for 40% and 60% reduction targets. If the first inflection is driven by a quantity effect, the second one is pushed by a price effect. Specificities of the thermal renovation market imply a lock-in risk: at the micro-scale, the discount rate could induce households to realize low ambition renovations, whereas at the macro-scale, having successive short-term objectives triggers important over-costs, above 15% of the optimized investment costs. We suggest that policy-makers take the risk of low ambition renovations into account, as it may nip the potential of energy savings in the bud. Relevant policies would set today the long-term efficiency target and earmark public incentives, like tax credits or interest-free loans, to ambitious renovations. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency, Renovation, Residential sector, Public policy. |
| JEL: | Q47 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1603 |
| By: | Jaimie Kim Bayani Arias (Department of Economics, College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños); Vicente G. Ballaran, Jr. (University of the Philippines Los Baños); Maria Emilinda T. Mendoza (University of the Philippines Los Baños); Rowena A. Dorado (University of the Philippines Los Baños); Bessie M. Burgos (SEARCA) |
| Keywords: | Flood, Adaptation, Economic Assessment, Philippines |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160434 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen (Universität Bonn); Benjamin Enke (University of Bonn); Armin Falk (Universität Bonn); David Huffman (University of Pittsburgh); Uwe Sunde (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | According to standard dynamic choice theories, patience is a key driving factor behind the accumulation of the proximate determinants of economic development. Using a novel representative data set on time preferences from 80,000 individuals in 76 countries, we investigate the empirical relevance of this hypothesis in the context of a development accounting framework. We find a significant reduced-form relationship between patience and development in terms of contemporary income as well as medium- and long-run growth rates, with patience explaining a substantial fraction of development differences across countries. Consistent with the idea that patience affects national income through accumulation processes, patience also strongly correlates with human and physical capital accumulation, investments into productivity, and institutional quality. Additional results show that the relationship between patience, human capital, and income extends to analyses across regions within countries, and across individuals within regions. |
| Keywords: | time preference, comparative development, growth, savings, human capital, physical capital, innovation, institutions |
| JEL: | D03 D90 O10 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2016-012 |
| By: | Gem B. Castillo (Resource and Environmental Economics Foundation of the Philippines, Inc. (REAP)); Somaly Chan (Department of Nature Conservation & Protection, Ministry of Environment Cambodia); Li Wenjun (Department of Environmental Management, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University); Li Yanbo (Visayas State University); H. Luthfi Fatah (Lambung Mangkurat University); Sivannakone Malivarn (Water Resources and Environment Administration); Kian Foh Lee (WWF-Malaysia (Peninsular Malaysia Office-HQ)); Alexander D. Anda, Jr (Resources, Environment And Economic Center For Studies (REECS)); Prinyarat Laengcharoen (Thailand Development Research Institute); Pham Duc Chien (Forest Science Institute of Vietnam (FSIV)); Benoit Laplante (EEPSEA) |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Gaps,Protected Areas, Southeast Asia |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr20160322 |
| By: | Chunhua Wang (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics) |
| Keywords: | Impact, Carbon Emissions, China |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160436 |
| By: | Chara Kokkinou; Aristea Koukiadaki |
| Abstract: | This report was financed by European Comission grant no. VS/2014/0534. |
| Date: | 2016–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:17 |
| By: | Brad J. Hershbein (W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Lisa B. Kahn (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Routine-biased technological change (RBTC), whereby routine-task jobs are replaced by machines and overseas labor, shifts demand towards high- and low-skill jobs, resulting in job polarization of the U.S. labor market. We test whether recessions accelerate this process. In doing so we establish a new fact about the demand for skill over the business cycle. Using a new database containing the near-universe of electronic job vacancies that span the Great Recession, we find evidence of upskilling—firms demanding more-skilled workers when local employment growth is slower. We find that upskilling is sizable in magnitude and largely due to changes in skill requirements within firm-occupation cells. We argue that upskilling is driven primarily by firm restructuring of production towards more-skilled workers. We show that 1) skill demand remains elevated after local economies recover from the Great Recession, driven primarily by the same firms that upskilled early in the recovery; 2) among publicly traded firms in our data, those that upskill more also increase capital stock by more over the same time period; and 3) upskilling is concentrated within routine-task occupations -- those most vulnerable to RBTC. Our result is unlikely to be driven by firms opportunistically seeking to hire more-skilled workers in a slack labor market, and we rule out other cyclical explanations. We thus present the first direct evidence that the Great Recession precipitated new technological adoption. |
| Keywords: | Job polarization, job postings, RBTC, recessions, routine-biased technological change, upskilling, vacancies |
| JEL: | D22 E32 J23 J24 M51 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:16-254 |
| By: | Martin L. Weitzman |
| Abstract: | It is difficult to resolve the global warming free-rider externality problem by negotiating many different quantity targets. By contrast, negotiating a single internationally-binding minimum carbon price (the proceeds from which are domestically retained) counters self-interest by incentivizing countries to internalize the externality. In this contribution I attempt to sketch out, mostly with verbal arguments, the sense in which each country's extra cost from a higher emissions price is counter-balanced by that country's extra benefit from inducing all other countries to simultaneously lower their emissions in response to the higher price. Some implications are discussed. While the paper could be centered on a more formal model, here the tone of the discussion resembles more that of an exploratory think piece directed to policymakers and the general public. |
| JEL: | F51 H41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22197 |
| By: | Truong Cong Thanh Nghi (School of Economics, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City) |
| Keywords: | Insurance, Vietnam, Flood |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016036 |
| By: | Haitao Yin (Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University); Rui Zhao (Shanghai Jiao Tong University) |
| Keywords: | ecolabel, China |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160422 |
| By: | Dorsainvil, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Sur demande du Gouvernement Haïtien, la Commission Économique des Nations-Unies pour l´Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe (CEPALC) a commandité une étude aux fins d’évaluer la situation actuelle du système de financement de la politique et des programmes de protection sociale en Haïti par l’État, et d’identifier les opportunités de mobilisation de nouvelles ressources. |
| Keywords: | SEGURIDAD SOCIAL, POLITICA SOCIAL, FINANCIACION, HACIENDA PUBLICA, ECONOMIA DEL BIENESTAR, EVALUACION DE PROGRAMAS, ADMINISTRACION PUBLICA, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOCIAL POLICY, FINANCING, PUBLIC FINANCE, WELFARE ECONOMICS, PROGRAMME EVALUATION, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:38231 |
| By: | Sanglestsawai, Santi; Rejesus, Roderick M.; Yorobe, Jose M. Jr. |
| Abstract: | Economic Impacts of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Farmer Field Schools (FFS): Evidence from Onion Farmers in the Philippines |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212691 |
| By: | Boppart, Timo; Krusell, Per |
| Abstract: | What explains how hard people work? Going back in time, a main fact to address is the steady reduction in hours worked. The long-run data, for the U.S. as well as for other countries, show a striking pattern whereby hours worked fall steadily by a little below a half of a percent per year, accumulating to about a halving of labor supply over 150 years. In this paper, we argue that a stable utility function defined over consumption and leisure can account for this fact, jointly with the movements in the other macroeconomic aggregates, thus allowing us to view falling hours as part of a macroeconomy displaying balanced growth. The key feature of the utility function is an income effect (of higher wages) that slightly outweighs the substitution effect on hours. We also show that our proposed preference class is the only one consistent with the stated facts. The class can be viewed as an enlargement of the well-known "balanced-growth preferences" that dominate the macroeconomic literature and that demand constant (as opposed to falling) hours in the long run. The postwar U.S. experience, over which hours have shown no net decrease and which is the main argument for the use of "balanced-growth preferences", is thus a striking exception more than a representative feature of modern economies. |
| Keywords: | balanced growth; hours worked; Kaldor facts; Labor Supply; preferences |
| JEL: | E21 J22 O11 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11235 |
| By: | Ergys Islamaj (Development Prospects Group-The World Bank); Ayhan Kose (Development Prospects Group-The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to fluctuations in income. We examine the empirical validity of this prediction using an array of indicators of financial integration for a large sample of advanced and developing countries over the period 1960-2011. We report two main results. First, the sensitivity of consumption to income has declined over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. The decline has been more pronounced in advanced economies than in developing ones. Second, our regression analysis indicates that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with a lower sensitivity of consumption to income. This finding is robust to the use of a wide range of empirical specifications, country-specific characteristics and other controls, such as interest rates and outcome-based measures of financial integration. We also discuss other potential sources of the temporal changes in the sensitivity of consumption to income. |
| Keywords: | Consumption Sensitivity, Financial Integration, Risk Sharing, Intertemporal Smoothing. |
| JEL: | E21 F02 F4 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1602 |
| By: | Pablo Sanchez (El Colegio de Mexico); Jaume Sempere (El Colegio de Mexico) |
| Abstract: | In this paper agents can create private property rights on a resource by making appropriative activities. We show that the value of the resource has a nonmonotonic effect on the emergence of private property. When the resource is sufficiently valuable, agents have an incentive to leave a sharing agreement and private property can appear. If the value of the resource increases beyond a given threshold, deviations from the sharing agreement lead to a very costly confrontation so in order to avoid that, agents stick to the agreement. In that case, private property is not sustainable. On the other hand, it is shown that populations size has an important effect on the size of the parameter set in which private property is sustainable |
| Keywords: | private property, conflict, coalition formation |
| JEL: | D74 D23 C72 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emx:ceedoc:2016-03 |
| By: | Guha, Brishti |
| Abstract: | I unify the following (1) men face paternity uncertainty while women do not face maternity uncertainty, (2) putative fathers and paternal kin care about true paternity, (3) paternity confidence is systematically lower in matrilocal cultures than in patrilocal ones, (4) inheritance tends to be patrilineal where paternity confidence is high and matrilineal where it is low, and (5) most societies with patrilineal inheritance were patrilocal while most societies with matrilineal inheritance were matrilocal. I explore the following related puzzles: (1) Why were patrilineal-patrilocal societies (PP) more sexually restrictive for women than matrilineal-matrilocal ones (MM)? (2) Why did the older generation in PP and MM societies play starkly different roles in sexual monitoring? (3) Why did most societies emerge as PP while a few became MM? (4) Can the correlation between inheritance and post-marital residence be explained without assuming the exogeneity of either? To answer these questions I look at the simultaneous determination of inheritance, residence, and levels of sexual monitoring/permissiveness. |
| Keywords: | Uncertain paternity; grandparents; incentives; patrilocality; inheritance; monitoring. |
| JEL: | D02 D82 J12 |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70954 |
| By: | Pichler, Stefan (ETH Zurich); Ziebarth, Nicolas R. (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of US sick pay mandates to assess their labor market consequences. We use the Synthetic Control Group Method (SCGM) and the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) to estimate the causal effect of mandated sick leave on employment and wages. Our findings do not provide much evidence that employment or wages were significantly affected by the mandates which typically allow employees to earn one hour of paid sick leave per work week, up to seven days per year. Joint tests for all treatment regions let us exclude, with 90% statistical probability, that wages decreased by more than 1% as a result of the mandates. With 92% probability, we can exclude that employment decreased by more than 1%. |
| Keywords: | sick pay mandates, sick leave, medical leave, employer mandates, employment, wages, synthetic control group, United States, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) |
| JEL: | I12 I13 I18 J22 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9867 |
| By: | Gabriele Galati (De Nederlandsche Bank DNB, the Netherlands); Irma Hindrayanto (De Nederlandsche Bank DNB, the Netherlands); Siem Jan Koopman (VU University Amsterdam, the Netherlands); Marente Vlekke (Centraal Planbureau CPB, The Hague, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical properties. We show that financial cycles are longer and more ample than business cycles, and that their length and amplitude vary over time and across countries. |
| Keywords: | unobserved components time series model; Kalman filter; maximum likelihood estimation; band-pass filter; medium-term cycles |
| JEL: | C22 C32 E30 E50 E51 G01 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160029 |
| By: | Loy, Jens-Peter; Glauben, Thomas; Weiss, Christoph |
| Abstract: | We estimate cost pass-through rates based on data for store-level retail prices and wholesale costs. The data allows us to identify heterogeneity in cost pass-through across retailers and relate it to underlying explanatory factors such as retailer market power, measures of consumer search and menu costs. Results from a threshold-errorcorrection- model clearly provide empirical support for the ‘rockets and feathers’ phenomenon. In contrast to much of the literature which explains the ‘rockets and feathers’ phenomenon as a result of retailers’ market power, we find contrary find that the degree of asymmetry between costs and prices is negatively related to a measure of market power. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric Cost Pass-Through, Market Power, Menu Costs, Search Costs, Milk, Food Retailing, Germany, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, C32, D21, L11, L81, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212156 |
| By: | Orapan Nabangchang (School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammatirat Open University); Maura Allaire (University of North Carolina); Prinyarat Leangcharoen (School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University); Rawadee Jarungrattanapong (School of Economics, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University); Dale Whittington (University of North Carolina) |
| Keywords: | Flood, Thailand, cost, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160420 |
| By: | Karabarbounis, Loukas (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis); Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | By how much does an extension of unemployment benefits affect macroeconomic outcomes such as unemployment? Answering this question is challenging because U.S. law extends benefits for states experiencing high unemployment. We use data revisions to decompose the variation in the duration of benefits into the part coming from actual differences in economic conditions and the part coming from measurement error in the real-time data used to determine benefit extensions. Using only the variation coming from measurement error, we find that benefit extensions have a limited influence on state-level macroeconomic outcomes. We use our estimates to quantify the effects of the increase in the duration of benefits during the Great Recession and find that they increased the unemployment rate by at most 0.3 percentage point. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment insurance; Measurement error; Unemployment |
| JEL: | E24 E62 J64 J65 |
| Date: | 2016–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:733 |
| By: | Adis Isangkura (National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), Thailand) |
| Keywords: | Thailand, valuation, national park |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb2016047 |
| By: | Lekfuangfu, Warn N.; Powdthavee, Nattavudh; Clark, Andrew E.; Ward, George |
| Abstract: | We analyse the relationship between early maternal employment and child emotional and behavioural outcomes in early childhood and adolescence. Using rich data from a cohort of children born in the UK in the early 1990s, we find little evidence of a strong statistical relationship between early maternal employment and any of the emotional outcomes. However, there is some evidence that children whose mother is in full-time employment at the 18th month have worse behavioural outcomes at ages 4, 7, and 12. We suggest that these largely insignificant results may in part be explained by mothers who return to full-time work earlier being able to compensate their children: we highlight the role of fathers’ time investment and alternative childcare arrangements in this respect. |
| Keywords: | child outcomes; maternal employment; well-being; conduct; ALSPAC |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:1601 |
| By: | Givens, Gregory |
| Abstract: | This paper checks whether the coefficient estimates of a famous DSGE model are robust to macroeconomic data revisions. The effects of revisions are captured by rerunning the estimation on a real-time data set compiled using the latest time series available each quarter from 1997 through 2015. Results show that point estimates of the structural parameters are generally robust to changes in the data that have occurred over the past twenty years. By comparison, estimates of the standard errors are relatively more sensitive to revisions. The latter implies that judgements about the statistical significance of certain parameters depend on which data vintage is used for estimation. |
| Keywords: | Data Revisions, Real-Time Data, DSGE Estimation |
| JEL: | C32 C82 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70932 |
| By: | Liu Zhaoyang (University of Cambridge); Mao Xianqiang (Beijing Normal University); Liu Shengqiang (Ministry of Transport); Kevin Jianjun Tu (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, US) |
| Keywords: | pollution, control, China |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160456 |
| By: | Seccia, Antonio; Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Nardone, Gianluca |
| Abstract: | International trade in table grapes has expanded tremendously over the last few decades, with out-of season fresh produce now being traded and consumed globally. Trade intensification has been driven by emerging traders that have changed the economic geography of table grapes.Improving competiveness in global markets is a main goal for entrepreneurs and policymakers. However, whilst the global trade in table grapes has become very important, empirical papers on the topic are limited. In this study, we empirically investigate the global dynamics in trade of table grapes between 1961 and 2011 and characterize the time series properties of the market shares for the leading table grape exporting countries. Our analysis shows how trends in market shares of historical exporters and emerging countries have differed over the last few decades. Our comparative analysis provides useful insights to forecast the prospects for the international fresh food trade. |
| Keywords: | Export; Import; Fruit; Market share; Trends; Convergence |
| JEL: | F13 F14 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70931 |
| By: | Hoang Trieu Huy (Department of Economics and Development Studies, The College of Economics, Hue University, 100 Phung Hung Street, Hue City, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Climate change will have impacts that add to the list of yet-unknown underlying processes. Hazards and vulnerability can change over time not only in intensity, frequency, and in location and duration, but also in importance and interest. This case study aimed at understanding the role of information and local institutions in early warning systems for disaster management in order to reduce vulnerability to recurrent storms and floods in coastal communities. The specific objectives were: i) to describe the hazards to livelihood by and vulnerability of livelihood to weather changes, particularly storms and floods; ii) to describe early warning systems for storms in disaster management and their evolution over time; iii) to document experiences of local people in regard to early warning systems; and iv) to provide recommendations on future adaptations to extreme climate conditions. |
| Keywords: | Early Warning System, Costal, Information, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:tpaper:tp201604t4 |
| By: | Kassas, Bachir; Palma, Marco; Zhang, Yvette |
| Abstract: | The longstanding dispute over the accuracy of stated preference methods in eliciting the true valuations of individuals has stimulated interest in analyzing preference inconsistencies between revealed and stated preference mechanisms. This paper uses preference orderings to provide a more robust comparison between revealed and stated preferences and assess the validity of the latter. This is done by comparing an incentive compatible auction experiment (recoded as implied ranks) with a ranking procedure. Partial ranking models are constructed to examine consumer preferences under the two valuation mechanisms for the most preferred and the least preferred alternatives in order to provide a more detailed analysis. The stability and symmetry of parameters was tested and systematic differences between the models were analyzed in order to measure the extent of preference inconsistencies between the auction exercise and ranking procedure. Furthermore, the predictive power of the models was calculated to evaluate the relative reliability of each mechanism. The results provide robust evidence that individuals often employ different behavioral rules under the two elicitation mechanisms, especially when expressing mild feelings about certain alternatives. Compared to the more accurate auctions mechanism, the ranking exercise seems to perform fairly well only when eliciting preferences over the best ranked alternative. |
| Keywords: | auctions, choice-ranking, ordinal data, parameter stability, parameter symmetry, preference inconsistency, revealed preferences, stated preference, Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, D12, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229737 |
| By: | Anatoli Segura (Banca d’Italia); Javier Suarez (Cemfi) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the gains from regulating banks’ maturity transformation in an infinite horizon model of banks which finance long-term assets with non-tradable debt. Banks choose the amount and maturity of their debt trading off investors’ preference for short maturities with the risk of systemic crises. As in Stein (2012), pecuniary externalities make unregulated debt maturities inefficiently short. The assessment is based on the calibration of the model to Eurozone banking data for 2006. Lengthening the average maturity of wholesale debt from its 2.8 months to 3.3 months would produce welfare gains with a present value of euro 105 billion. |
| Keywords: | liquidity risk, maturity regulation, pecuniary externalities, systemic crises |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1065_16 |
| By: | hassene ben mbarek (ESSEC business school); rajhi mohammed TAher (university of economic sciences and management) |
| Abstract: | the notion of governance has been the subject of several disputes between researchers aimed at property assess the existing relationship between a system of governance within the company and the performance of the latter, it verify that good governance can ensure a properfunctioning of the company and, therefore, to improve performance. In this context, a central question revolves around the assessment of the impact of the system of governance on the performance of the Tunisian banks saw that the financial sector has an important role in the economic development process. We interesting in this article to the relationship between a system of governance and performance within the Tunisian banks, via a literature review and empirical analysis, in order to better design the different results obtained by previous studies. Theoretically, we return as a first step, on the paradox of the performance and governance, namely definition, typology and extent. Then, in a second step, we centralize the impact of a system of governance on the performance of the Tunisian banks. |
| Keywords: | governance, performance, bankig sector |
| JEL: | C19 G21 L21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:3406088 |
| By: | Zhang, Yinjuejie; Palma, Marco; Xu, Zhicheng |
| Abstract: | The act of Alabama HB 56, passed in 2011 is considered to be the strictest anti-illegal immigration bill in the United States. This paper evaluates the impact of this policy on crime, by using the synthetic control method to create a counterfactual Alabama. The results provide suggestive evidence of heterogeneous causal effects of Alabama HB 56 on crime. Compared to the synthetic group, the violent crime rate increased as a response to Alabama HB 56, while there was no significant change in property crime rate after the act. A placebo test was also performed to demonstrate the robustness of the results. |
| Keywords: | anti-illegal immigrant law, Alabama, crime, synthetic control, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics, J15, J61, K37, |
| Date: | 2016–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229780 |
| By: | Kannika Thampanishvong (Thailand Development Research Institute) |
| Keywords: | Information, household, electricity consumption, Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160428 |
| By: | Alexander D. Anda, Jr. (Resources, Environment & Economics Center for Studies); Marlon M. Atienza (Resources, Environment & Economics Center for Studies) |
| Keywords: | Resource Gap, Protected area, Philippines |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160448 |
| By: | Julian Conrads; Rainer Rilke; Tommaso Reggiani |
| Abstract: | Ambiguity about the chances of winning represents a key aspect in lotteries. By means of a controlled field experiment, we exogenously vary the degree of ambiguity about the winning chances of lotteries organized to incentivize the contribution for a public good. In one treatment, people have been simply informed about the maximum number of potential participants (i.e. the number of lottery tickets released). In a second treatment, this information has been omitted as in all traditional lotteries. Our general finding shows that simply reducing the degree of ambiguity of the lottery leads to a sizable and significant increase (67%) in the participation rate. This result is robust to alternative prize configurations. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:framed:00407 |
| By: | Dunn, Caroline; Shelnutt, Karla; House, Lisa; Karavolias, Joanna |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230070 |
| By: | Tsong-Min WU |
| Abstract: | During 1955-2000, Taiwan's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was the highest in the world. In the first half of the 20th century, the Japanese colonial government laid the basis for economic growth by establishing a modern economic institution in Taiwan. After taking over Taiwan in 1945, however, the Kuomintang (KMT) government adopted economic control policies which caused hyperinflation during 1946-1949. The control policies were continued after the KMT government retreated to Taiwan in late 1949. As a result, economic growth was stagnant. Fortunately, deregulations were initiated in the late 1950s, and Taiwan was able to rapidly expand its export sector. Using the textile industry as an important case, this paper analyzes what policy changes were critical in fostering the postwar export expansion and economic growth. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16028 |
| By: | Nehring, Richard; Hallahan, Charlie |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates performance measures on cotton farms, following an input distance stochastic production frontier (SPF) approach and compares the relative performance of farm operator households with and without off-farm wages and salaries. We use 2002 to 2014 USDA data for twelve major cotton producing states-Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas-- identifying different performance measures. Previous studies suggest that off-farm work influences economic performance—by “improving” managerial performance. We find that off-farm income boosts scale efficiency on larger operations for the data set analyzed, and is also consistent with significantly higher farm and household returns. We also find that the number of hours worked off-farm by the operator contributes to lower technical efficiency but we find no impact on technical efficiency for hours worked off-farm by the spouse (80 percent of total hours worked off-farm). |
| Keywords: | input distance function off-farm hours scale efficiency cotton, Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230413 |
| By: | Michele Fabrizi; Antonio Parbonetti; Elisabetta Ipino; Michel Magnan |
| Abstract: | Using a large sample of U.S. multinational firms during the 1993–2012 period, we test the hypothesis that foreign cash holdings generate uncertainty among market participants. We provide evidence that cash held abroad is associated with greater information uncertainty among analysts, and causes more dispersed beliefs and abnormal trading volumes among investors. Further analyses document that these results are mainly explained by foreign cash held in countries with low economic growth and high tax difference with respect to the US. Overall, our findings shed light on the economic consequences of foreign cash holdings and offer support to the SEC’s recent effort to encourage companies to increase disclosure about their cash holdings. S’appuyant sur un échantillon important composé de multinationales américaines durant la période 1993-2012, nous testons l’hypothèse que des liquidités trop importantes détenues à l’étranger augmentent le niveau d’incertitude parmi les intervenants sur les marchés financiers. De fait, nos résultats montrent que les liquidités détenues à l’étranger sont associées à une plus grande incertitude informationnelle auprès des analystes financiers, entraînant des anticipations de résultats plus dispersées ainsi qu’un niveau élevé de transactions anormales sur le titre. D’autres analyses montrent ces résultats sont principalement causés par les liquidités détenues dans des pays à faible croissance économique et où le différentiel entre le taux d’imposition de référence aux États-Unis et celui appliqué dans le pays est important. Globalement, nos résultats que les liquidités détenues à l’étranger ont une incidence importante sur l’asymétrie informationnelle prévalant sur les marchés financiers et permettent de comprendre l’intervention de la Securities & Exchange Commission qui encourage les entreprises à mieux divulguer leur situation en matière de liquidités. |
| Keywords: | Cash, Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts, Forecast Accuracy, Forecast Dispersion, and Market Reaction, encaisse (ou liquidités), prévisions d’analystes, précision des prévisions, dispersion des prévisions, réaction des marchés |
| Date: | 2016–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-22 |
| By: | Rawadee Jarungrattanapong (Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University); Areeya Manasboonphempool (Kasetsart University) |
| Keywords: | flood, adaptation, Chiang Mai |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160454 |
| By: | Lambrecht, Isabel |
| Abstract: | Improving women’s access to land is high on the agricultural policy agenda of both governmental and non-governmental agencies. Yet, the determinants and rationale of gendered access to land are not well understood. This paper argues that gender relations are more than the outcomes of negotiations within households. It explains the importance of social norms, perceptions, and formal and informal rules shaping access to land for male and female farmers at four levels: (1) the household/family, (2) the community, (3) the state, and (4) the market. The framework is applied to Ghana. Norms on household and family organization and on men’s and women’s responsibilities and capabilities play a key role in gendered allocation of resources. However, these norms and perceptions are dynamic and evolve jointly with the development of markets and changes in values of inputs such as labor and land. Theoretical models that represent the gendered distribution of assets as the result of intrahousehold bargaining should be revised, and extrahousehold factors should be included. From a policy perspective, laws that ensure gender equality in terms of inheritance and a more gender-equitable distribution of property upon divorce can play a key role in improving women’s property rights. Yet, their impact may be limited where customary rights dominate and social norms and rules continue to discriminate according to gender. |
| Keywords: | gender, women, land rights, households, customary land rights, customary law, marriage, social norms, household model, female farmers, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1514 |
| By: | Keren Shen; Jianfeng Yao; Wai Keung Li |
| Abstract: | Realized moments of higher order computed from intraday returns are introduced in recent years. The literature indicates that realized skewness is an important factor in explaining future asset returns. However, the literature mainly focuses on the whole market and on the monthly or weekly scale. In this paper, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis to investigate the forecasting abilities of realized skewness and realized kurtosis towards individual stock's future return and variance in the daily scale. It is found that realized kurtosis possesses significant forecasting power for the stock's future variance. In the meanwhile, realized skewness is lack of explanatory power for the future daily return for individual stocks with a short horizon, in contrast with the existing literature. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.07969 |
| By: | Ugo Mattei (UC Hastings, University of Turin & IUC Turin); Alessandra Quarta (University of Turin & IUC Turin) |
| Abstract: | The economic and political transformations determined by the rise of neoliberalism are usually studied at a state dimension, while the urban one is quite ignored. Nevertheless, the government of the city has been influenced by global and national recent changes and all the municipal sectors have been touched by the austerity's recipe. The decrease of urban public spaces, their privatizations as well as gentrification transform city planning that is often unable to elaborate alternative solutions against the overexploitation of the urban territory and the increase of inequalities caused by economic crisis. In a city, after all, it is impossible to hide inequalities and injustices. In the last years, cities have often been the theater of political struggles against the privatization of public spaces, evictions and the dissolution of the urban welfare. In many cases, the demonstrators have occupied parks or abandoned buildings (theatre, condominiums...), and used them to find a temporary solution to their different needs (housing, social space, new forms of work, urban gardens...). They denounce the great number of public or private empty spaces (for instance, the abandoned infrastructures left by the process of de-industrialization) and their neglect. According to the right to the city they claim, the inhabitants have to produce urban spaces starting from their own needs: empty spaces become an opportunity, the urban care is a collective task. This approach shares the logic of the commons, which reclaims a new paradigm based on inclusion, participation and social and ecological use of resources: according to many scholars, also urban spaces are commons. After a description of this wide context, the article explores the connection between commons and the right to the city. |
| Keywords: | urban commons, right to the city, privatization, grassroots action, neoliberalism |
| JEL: | B59 K11 O18 P48 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuc:rpaper:2-15 |
| By: | Oskar Lecuyer (OCCR,University of Bern); Philippe Quirion (CNRS, CIRED) |
| Abstract: | We study the interactions between a CO2 emissions trading system (ETS) and renewable energy subsidies under uncertainty over electricity demand and energy costs. We first provide evidence that uncertainty has generated over-allocation (defined as an emissions cap above business-as-usual emissions) during at least part of the history of most ETSs in the world. We then develop an analytical model and a numerical model applied to the European Union electricity market in which renewable energy subsidies are justified only by CO2 abatement. We show that in this context, when uncertainty is small, renewable energy subsidies are not justified, but when it is big enough, these subsidies increase expected welfare because they provide CO2 abatement even in the case of over-allocation. The source of uncertainty is important when comparing the various types of renewable energy subsidies. Under uncertainty over electricity demand, renewable energy costs or gas prices, a feed-in tariff brings higher expected welfare than a feed-in premium because it provides a higher subsidy when it is actually needed i.e. when the electricity price is low. Under uncertainty over coal prices, the opposite result holds true. These results shed new light on the ongoing switch from feed-in tariffs to feed-in premiums in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Willingness to pay, Social capital, Environmental protection, Ordered logistic regression, Sweden |
| JEL: | Q28 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2016.14 |
| By: | Nepal, Atul; Nelson, Carl |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, where most of the families work on their own farms, wage or labor-related income cannot be observed directly. This paper contributes to the literature on gender wage difference in labor and development economics by developing a new approach to estimate the shadow wage of agricultural households in Nepal. Using a general functional form, we first derive the shadow wage from a theoretical model. Then, ward-level fixed effect is used to estimate the shadow wage by gender for Nepalese agricultural households. We find that productivity of women is higher at the mean, median and 75th quantile than that of men. Despite their higher productivity, females are underpaid at the mean and median in the labor market compared to their marginal productivity, calling for greater investments to involve female in the production process. |
| Keywords: | Wage, Separability, Agricultural Household, Consumer/Household Economics, Financial Economics, C18, J43., |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212527 |
| By: | Phumsith Mahasuweerachai (Department of Economics, Faculty of Management Sciences, Khon Kaen University); Piyaluk Buddhawongsa (Chiang Mai University) |
| Keywords: | Adaptation,Flood Disasters,Mekong River Basin,Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr20160330 |
| By: | Nethrayini, K.R.; Mundinamani, S.M.; Naik, Vinod R. |
| Abstract: | The present study was conducted to examine the growth and economic impact of TMO on farm economy of major oilseeds growing districts of Karnataka and the state as a whole. The study period was divided into Period-I (Pre TMO) from 1972-73 to 1985-86, Period –II (Post TMO) from 1986-87 to 2009-10 and Overall period from 1972-73 to 2009-10. Primary data survey was done for groundnut crop in Tumkur district, Karnataka. The results of the CGR analysis revealed that, the growth in area, production and yield of total oilseeds found to be positive during Period-I except area growth in Belgaum and Dharwad districts and yield growth in Bijapur and Gulbarga districts. During Period-II in most of the study districts, area showed declining growth except in Belgaum and Dharwad and Bijapur and Gulbarga for yield growth. The quantities of inputs and labour utilized and per hectare output realized were more in beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | Technology Mission on Oilseeds (TMO), Groundnut, Compound Growth Rate (CGR), Tabular analysis and Budgeting technique, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211820 |
| By: | Nguyen Van Kien (An Giang University) |
| Keywords: | Mekong delta, Flood, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160458 |
| By: | Anderson, D. Mark (Montana State University); Sabia, Joseph J. (San Diego State University) |
| Abstract: | Despite intense public interest in keeping guns out of schools, next to nothing is known about the effects of gun control policies on youth gun carrying or school violence. Using data from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveys (YRBS) for the period 1993-2013, this study is the first to examine the relationship between child access prevention (CAP) gun controls laws and gun carrying among high school students. Our results suggest that CAP laws are associated with a 13 percent decrease in the rate of past month gun carrying and an 18 percent decrease in the rate at which students reported being threatened or injured with a weapon on school property. In addition, we find that CAP laws are associated with a lagged decline in the probability that students miss school due to feeling unsafe. These results are concentrated among minors, for whom CAP laws are most likely to bind. To supplement our YRBS analysis, we collect a novel dataset on school shooting deaths for the period 1991-2013. We find that while CAP laws promote a safer school environment, they have no observable impact on school-associated shooting deaths. |
| Keywords: | gun control, youth risky behavior, school violence |
| JEL: | K4 I2 H7 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9830 |
| By: | Shen, Meng; Gao, Zhifeng |
| Abstract: | The capacity to perform complex cognitive tasks depends on the ability to retain task-relevant information in an accessible state (working memory) and to selectively process information in the environment (selective attention). Due to working memory capacity limits, people usually filter out irrelevant information and instead focus on important information. Will consumer’s working memory capacity affect their attention and further their choice? Our study uses choice experiments (CE) to investigate the effect of working memory capacity on attention and choice. Evidence suggests that consumer’s working memory capacity will indeed affect their attention and choice. |
| Keywords: | Working Memory, Selective Attention, Choice Experiment, Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230036 |
| By: | Zlata Bruckauf; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre |
| Abstract: | Early identification of students who fail to reach basic, age-appropriate literacy skills is the first step to ensure timely support of their learning. Understanding those drivers of low achievement that are beyond students’ control enables policy makers to foster equal opportunity for achievement. Drawing on the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2000 to 2012 data, this paper examines the risk factors of low achievement, defined here as scoring below the 10th percentile of the distribution, and their evolution over time, across 39 industrialized nations. These include an aggregate measure of socio-economic status (SES), immigration background, non-test language spoken at home, living in a single parent household, and gender. We find that family SES, is one of the most consistent predictors of low-achievement (across a diverse range of educational systems) and most persistent (across time). Amongst other results, we also find no evidence that the gender gap in reading – in favour of girls – narrowed over time, leaving boys at risk of educational disadvantage in the majority of countries. |
| Keywords: | adolescents; disadvantaged children; immigration; low income; socio-economic background; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa837 |
| By: | Luisanna Cocco; Michele Marchesi |
| Abstract: | In January 3, 2009, Satoshi Nakamoto gave rise to the "Bitcoin Block Chain" creating the first block of the chain hashing on his computers central processing unit (CPU). Since then, the hash calculations to mine Bitcoin have been getting more and more complex, and consequently the mining hardware evolved to adapt to this increasing difficulty. Three generations of mining hardware have followed the CPU's generation. They are GPU's, FPGA's and ASIC's generations. This work presents an agent based artificial market model of the Bitcoin mining process and of the Bitcoin transactions. The goal of this work is to model the economy of the mining process, starting from GPU's generation, the first with economic significance. The model reproduces some "stylized facts" found in real time price series and some core aspects of the mining business. In particular, the computational experiments performed are able to reproduce the unit root property, the fat tail phenomenon and the volatility clustering of Bitcoin price series. In addition, under proper assumptions, they are able to reproduce the price peak at the end of November 2013, its next fall in April 2014, the generation of Bitcoins, the hashing capability, the power consumption, and the mining hardware and electrical energy expenses of the Bitcoin network. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.01354 |
| By: | Passmore, Wayne; Sherlund, Shane M. |
| Abstract: | The Great Recession provides an opportunity to test the proposition that government mortgage insurance programs mitigated the effects of the financial crisis and enhanced the economic recovery from 2009 to 2014. We find that government-sponsored mortgage insurance programs have been responsible for better economic outcomes in counties that participated heavily in these programs. In particular, counties with high levels of participation from government-sponsored enterprises and the Federal Housing Authority had relatively lower unemployment rates, higher home sales, higher home prices, lower mortgage delinquency rates, and less foreclosure activity, both in 2009 (soon after the peak of the financial crisis) and in 2014 (six years after the crisis) than did counties with lower levels of participation. The persistence of better outcomes in counties with heavy participation in federal government programs is consistent with a view that lower government liquidity premiums, lower government credit-risk premiums, and looser government mortgage-underwriting standards yield higher private-sector economic activity after a financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Financial crisis ; Great Recession ; mortgages ; government policy |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-31 |
| By: | Muricho, Geoffrey; Kassie, Menale; Obare, Gideon |
| Abstract: | More studies have been conducted on determinants of smallholder participation in markets as sellers, with scant attention to why farmers participate in markets as either net sellers, autarkic or net buyers. Employing a random effect ordered probit model, this paper examines factors determining households’ participation in maize markets as either net sellers, autarkic or net buyers. Contrary to government intentions for producer price supports, this study showed that households that faced high producer selling prices of maize were likely to be net buyers. However, household membership to agricultural production groups increased the likelihood of farmers being net sellers. Similarly, adoption of inorganic fertilizer and improved maize varieties were positively associated with being net sellers. Therefore, policies supporting high producer selling prices should be discouraged and instead encourage those that ease smallholder access to fertilizer and improved maize seed. |
| Keywords: | Kenya, maize, market participation regimes, ordered probit model, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212515 |
| By: | Madhulika Gupta; Manjula Jain |
| Abstract: | The idea of Rural Marketing in Indian Economy has always played a significant role in the lives of people. The rural market in India brings in greater revenues in the country, as the rural regions comprise of the maximum consumers in this country. Indian rural market produces almost more than half of the country's income. Indian Rural Marketing has always been difficult to predict and consist of special uniqueness. However many companies were efficacious in entering the rural markets. They bagged the market with its proper understanding and innovative marketing ideas. It is very challenging for the companies to overlook the opportunities offered by the rural markets. As two – third of Indian population exists in rural areas, the market is much unanticipated for the companies to be effective in rural markets. They have to overcome few challenges such as pricing and distribution. The present paper aims to know the status of rural market in India, the identification of different rural marketing strategies, to highlight the opportunities and challenges of rural marketing in India. The main aim of this study is to observe the potentiality of Indian rural markets and finding out several problems being faced by rural markets. Key words: Market, rural market, Indian market |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-03-10 |
| By: | Phung Thanh Binh (Schoolf of Economics, University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City); Xueqin Zhu (Environmental Economics and Natural Resource Group, Wageningen University); Rolf Groeneveld (Environmental Economics and Natural Resource Group, Wageningen University); Ekko van Ierland (Environmental Economics and Natural Resource Group, Wageningen University) |
| Keywords: | Flood, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160418 |
| By: | Nedumaran, S.; Bantilan, M.C.S.; Gupta, S.K.; Irshad, A.; Davis, J.S. |
| Abstract: | In this paper a multi-regional international trade model using concepts of economic surplus and spillover effects is used to estimate the ex-ante measures of the relative economic benefits (accounting both direct and spillover benefits) to provide evidence for the research managers and policy makers in making judgment for prioritizing production domains for millets research focus and research resource allocation among regions and countries. The empirical results indicate that the highest expected benefits to millet research could be generated when research is focused on production domain of warm tropics dryland, 120-149 days but the high payoff production domains are different among regions. The contribution of spillover benefits to the total international benefits varies between 45 to 97% depending upon the research focus in different production domains. The analysis clearly brought out the insights to focus ICRISAT’s millet research to achieve maximum benefits to generate greater impacts and research investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Priority Setting, millets production domains, spillover effects, multi-country trade model, economic surplus, Agribusiness, Production Economics, O3, Q16, Q17, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:230224 |
| By: | Adriana Abarca Montero; Jorge Espinoza Benavides; Vesna Mandakovic; Patricio Rojas Quezada; Claudia Yáñez Valdés (School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo) |
| Keywords: | GEM, Entrepreneurship, Concepción (Chile) |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dsr:wpaper:30 |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | Using panel data on corporate social responsibility (CSR) matched with corporate proxy statement data for a large and representative sample of 1,492 publicly-traded firms in Japan over 2006-2014, we provide rigorous econometric evidence on the effects of CSR on gender diversity in the workplace. Our fixed effect estimates point to positive and significant effects on gender diversity of CSR, yet the effects are felt only after two to three years. Such CSR effects are found to be larger and more significant for firms that adhere more closely to the traditional Japanese management model with employee stakeholder salience, which is mostly consistent with an influential theory of CSR--the theory of stakeholder salience. The magnitude of the effects is neither trivial nor implausibly large. For those firms that adhere closely to the participatory model, one standard deviation increase in our summary CSR score, after three years, will result in 0.8 more female college graduate hires from its mean of 17.5; 1.7 more female managers from its mean of 26.2; and 0.16 more female directors from its mean of 1.69. Finally, the positive and significant CSR effects on gender diversity are found to be robust to the inclusion of controls capturing the possible effects of various work-life balance (WLB) practices on gender diversity, pointing to the direct impact of CSR on gender diversity rather than the CSR effects mediated by WLB. In designing and revising various public policies to achieve their current key policy goal of advancement of women in the labor market, Japanese policy makers may want to pay more attention to a potentially important role that CSR plays in gender diversity in the workplace in general and the heterogeneity of the CSR effects and their considerable gestation period in particular. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16064 |
| By: | Koji Nakamura (Bank of Japan); Hiroshi Kawata (Bank of Japan); Masaki Tanaka (Bank of Japan); Lisa Uemae (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we introduce the Consumption Activity Index (CAI). The CAI uses a variety of sales and supply-side statistics on goods and services as its source statistics and is provided as a measure for capturing short-term consumption activity on both monthly and quarterly bases. The CAI traces movements of consumption in the household side of the economy, much like those in the Annual Report on National Accounts (ARNA) - the most comprehensive statistic representing nationwide consumption activity - but delivers in a more timely fashion. Unlike demand-side statistics, this index shows only small fluctuations emanating from sample rotations, and also exhibits a high correlation with a number of confidence survey measures. Various versions of the CAI are available - nominal and real indexes as well as those both including and excluding inbound consumption - and they are designed to help users according to their analytical needs. Based on the above-mentioned properties, the CAI will contribute to proper assessment of the actual movements of consumption activities in Japan. |
| Keywords: | private consumption; business cycles |
| JEL: | E21 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron160502a |
| By: | Alcalde, José (IUDESP, University of Alicante) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores sequential mechanisms for (many-to-one) two-sided matching problems. In these mechanisms, agents belonging to a side of the market determine an eligibility restriction; and the agents on the other side select their preferred mates, constrained by the above eligibility. We find out some asymmetries, as well as some coincidences, related to the mechanisms in which the first decision is made by the individuals or the institutions. In particular, for the two classes of mechanisms, it is likely that the outcome is stable. This can be interpreted as if the sequentiality in which agents decide takes the place of the coordination among the whole society. As a main difference, it is found that an extra coordination between individuals is exercised when they impose the eligibility restriction. A consequence of such an ‘over-coordination’ is that the likely outcome coincides with the individuals optimal stable matching. The dual result yielding the institutions’ optimal stable allocation does not hold when these agents are the ones to impose eligibility. |
| Keywords: | Sequentiality; (Pairwise) Stability; Matching Markets |
| JEL: | C78 D61 D61 D78 |
| Date: | 2016–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:qmetal:2016_002 |
| By: | Du, Xiaoxue; Turvey, Calum; Zhang, Yuehua; Zilberman, David |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc016:233767 |
| By: | Kelly, Edel; Heanue, Kevin; Buckley, Cathal; O'Gorman, Colm |
| Abstract: | Resource use efficiency is at the core of sustainable farming practices for the future of agriculture. Given the abolition of quotas in the EU and the increasing demands for food globally food producers are faced with a challenge to increase production in an environmentally sustainable manner. This paper examines the adoption of a suite of grassland management practices by Irish dairy farmers which are proven to improved grass utilisation. The Technology Acceptance Model is applied to a nationally representative sample of specialist Irish dairy farmers to investigate the use of belief based variables and traditional socio-economic and demographic variables in predicting intention to use six grassland management practices. |
| Keywords: | technology acceptance model, adoption, grassland management practice, Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, O330, Q160, Q240, Q550, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229067 |
| By: | Sarku, Enoch; Olujide, Olapeju; Onyeagoro, Chinwe; Yeboah, Anthony K.; Owens, John Paul; Bynum, Jarvetta |
| Abstract: | Agritourism can be a great source of entertainment, income, and education. In order to model the key factors that affect its adoption among small farmers in North Carolina, a case study approach is employed to set the tone for further analysis of the subject area. Anthropological characteristics such as age, gender, household income before taxes, ethnicity, educational background and operational factors such as total acreage, geographical information, and economic situation of the farm are identified as recurring elements. Four farms were interviewed in the case study to identify the choices and challenges of operating an agritourism enterprise. The most common primary challenges are expenses, access to capital and liability issues. The most common goal for engaging agritourism is income generation and less common goals include educating the public about agriculture as well as family heritage. |
| Keywords: | Agritourism, socially disadvantaged farmers, Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2015–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229838 |
| By: | Giorgio Giorgi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia); Cesare Zuccotti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | We give an overview of the main properties concerning equilibrium, optimality and turnpike theorems for a Gale - von Neumann economic growth model. |
| Keywords: | Gale - von Neumann models; intertemporal efficiency; turnpike theorems |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0119 |
| By: | Aric Shafran (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University) |
| Abstract: | Population growth in the wildland urban interface (WUI) has put a greater number of houses at risk due to wildfire while often straining the resources of fire suppression agencies and contributing to a dramatic increase in wildfire suppression expenditures. In light of these facts, this paper analyzes the consequences of the public provision of fire suppression in a monocentric city where wildfire risk is endogenously determined through the choice of where to live. Public provision leads to increased development in the WUI, higher suppression costs, and an overall decrease in welfare. Differentiated taxes based on fire risk could reduce sprawl, improve welfare and lower suppression costs. |
| Keywords: | wildefire, wildland urban interface, fire suprression, land use, urban sprawl |
| JEL: | Q54 R14 H42 Q28 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:1603 |
| By: | Pham Thai Hung (National Economics University, 207 Giai Phong, Hai Ba Trung Dist, Hanoi, Vietnam); Bui Anh Tuan (National Economics University, 207 Giai Phong, Hai Ba Trung Dist, Hanoi, Vietnam); Nguyen The Chinh (National Economics University, 207 Giai Phong, Hai Ba Trung Dist, Hanoi, Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of trade liberalization on the environment in Vietnam. In particular it looks at the link between the amount of pollution produced by the country’s manufacturing industries and the degree to which this is affected by trade liberalization policies. The study was carried out by Pham Thai Hung, Bui Anh Tuan and Nguyen The Chinh, from Vietnam’s National Economics University. It finds that trade liberalization in the country exacerbates industrial pollution at both the firm and industry level. This trade-off is worrying as Vietnam has recently become a WTO member and further trade liberalization commitments are now in the pipeline. In light of their findings, the researchers recommend that the environmental impact of any future trade reforms should be carefully considered and that steps should be taken to mitigate any potential negative effects such reforms might have.They suggest that polluting industries should be given priority in any clean-up programme. They highlight key steps which can be taken to help reduce pollution, including the strict enforcement of environmental regulations support to promoting information technology application and technology advancement in the manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Trade, impact, vietnam, pollution |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016042 |
| By: | Kate Meagher |
| Abstract: | Images of an 'African Boom' have presented us with labour markets full of dynamic potential: a declining dependency ratio, low levels of unemployment, and a vibrant middle class. This buoyant view of African labour markets conceals a less encouraging reality of catastrophic youth unemployment and expanding informality, creating a 'youth bulge' that is more of a threat than an opportunity. How does the continent with the largest share of informal labour in the world become a beacon of prosperity? Whose prosperity are we talking about? As the Bottom of the Pyramid strategies of MNCs penetrate African informal economies, are we witnessing the global integration of African informal labour, or an increasingly unstable process of 'adverse incorporation'? This paper will explore the reality beneath the outbreak of labour market optimism, and consider why African labour markets are being painted in such rosy colours. |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:62141 |
| By: | Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks at the Transatlantic Economy: Convergence or Divergence Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City. |
| Keywords: | very low inflation; very low real interest rates; banking union; regulatory convergence; supervisory convergence; secular stagnation; deleveraging |
| Date: | 2016–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:205 |
| By: | James Mak (Professor Emeritus of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa; Fellow, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization) |
| Abstract: | Many states in the U.S. give unrestricted financial support to their local governments. The reasons some state governments provide aid and others do not, and why a particular mode of revenue sharing is adopted remain unclear. This paper examines Hawaii’s recent effort at developing a model to allocate the state’s transient accommodation tax revenues between the State and the county governments. The paper documents the process and explains the rationale behind the model. |
| Keywords: | Intergovernmental revenue sharing; transient accommodation tax; hotel occupancy tax |
| JEL: | H7 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201605 |
| By: | Hagen, Terje P. (Department of Health Management and Health Economics); Ambugo, Eliva Atieno (Department of Health Management and Health Economics); Melberg, Hans Olav (Department of Health Management and Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Bakgrunn: Samhandlingsreformen ble implementert fra 1. januar 2012 og innbar blant annet kommunal betaling for utskrivningsklare pasienter. Det er tidligere vist at betalingsordningen bidro til å redusere liggetidene for pasientene som ble meldt utskrivningsklare. Forsknings-spørsmålene her er om ordningen bidro til en generell reduksjon i liggetidene og til å øke sannsynligheten for at pasientene ble reinnlagt for akuttbehandling innen 30 dager etter utskriving. Materiale og metode: Data ble hentet fra Norsk pasientregister (NPR) for perioden 1. januar 2009-31. desember 2014. Vi etablerte fem utvalg av pasienter: 1) Et tilfeldig trukket utvalg av 200 000 pasienter og 2) fire diagnosespesifikke utvalg som omfattet alle pasienter med hoveddiagnosene hoftebrudd (ICD 10: S72), slag (I63), hjerteinfarkt (I21, I22) og KOLS eller astma (ICD 10 J44, J45 og J46). I de diagnosespesifikke analysene benyttet vi alder, kjønn og tidligere sykehistorie til risikojustering. Liggetider ble analysert ved regresjonsanalyser og sannsynligheten for akutte reinnleggelser innen 30 dager ble analysert ved logistisk regresjonsanalyse. Vi benyttet instrumentvariabelmetode for å justere for seleksjonseffekter. Analysene ble gjort med faste effekter for helseforetak. Pasienter som døde under sykehusoppholdet ble ekskludert fra analysene. Resultater: Implementeringen av Samhandingsreformen er assosiert med en reduksjon i liggetidene på 0,1 dager. For pasienter som er definert som utskrivningsklare og skal ha tjenester fra kommunene, reduseres liggetidene mer. I tilfeldighetsutvalget var det samlet sett ingen endringer i reinnleggelsesratene. Resultater fra de diagnosespesifikke analysene samsvarer med resultatene fra analysen av tilfeldighetsutvalget. Sannsynligheten for reinnleggelse øker med alder og komorbiditeter. Pasienter som meldes utskrivningsklare har høyere reinnleggelsesrater enn de som ikke meldes utskrivningsklare, men det skjer ingen generelle endringer i reinnleggelsesraten for denne gruppen fra før til etter innføringen av Samhandlingsreformen for noen av de utvalgte pasientgruppene. Det er imidlertid store variasjoner mellom helseforetak og kommuner. Fortolkning: Liggetidene reduseres ved innføringen av Samhandlingsreformen mens det ikke skjer generelle endringer i reinnleggelsesratene for de pasientgrupper som er analysert. Vår fortolkning er at kommunene har håndtert den økte omsorgsbelastningen som fulgte av Samhandlingsreformen. |
| Keywords: | Kommuner; sykehus; liggetid; reinnleggelser; reform; betalingsordning |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2016–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oslohe:2016_005 |
| By: | Mallick, Debdulal |
| Abstract: | We document an evolving pattern in the slope of the Phillips curve in Australia at different frequencies under different monetary policy regimes and labor market regulations. Our estimation strategy relies on the frequency domain estimation but is also complemented by the time domain estimation. We document an upward sloping medium-run Phillips curve in the pre-1977 period, a downward sloping long-run Phillips curve from 1977 to 1993, and a flattened Phillips curve from 1993 onwards. Inflation lagged unemployment during the first period but led during the second period. The Phillips curve at business-cycle frequencies is downward sloping in all periods. We explain our results in terms of the monetary targeting in 1976 and the inflation targeting in 1993 by the RBA, respectively, and important changes in labor relations from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s. The flattened Phillips curve is also observed in several industrialized countries since their adoption of inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | Phillips curve, Long-run, Business-cycle, Frequency, Spectral method |
| JEL: | C49 E24 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71082 |
| By: | Nguyen Thi Y Ly (Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Agriculture and Forestry) |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Payment for Forest Environmental Services |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160442 |
| By: | Ramirez, Octavio; Shonkwiler, J. Scott |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:scc016:233761 |
| By: | Zhang, Lisha; Gao, Zhifeng; Vassalos, Michael |
| Abstract: | Consumer preferences for food have drastically changed over the last decades. Other than the nutrient provided by food, they increasingly care about the impact of food production on the environment and society. Consequently, consumers require more information regarding a number of intangible product attributes, such as the amount of fertilizer used, whether the farmer adopted sustainable production practices etc. The objective of this paper is twofold. First, the study seeks to identify sustainable consumer groups by examining their preferences of different tangible and intangible attributes of fresh strawberries. Second, it investigates the effect of consumers’ perceptions for different labels (i.e. organic, local etc.) and their willingness to pay for the examined attributes. This can provide valuable insights to retailers, farmers and policy makers to promote sustainable food production and increase profitability by meeting consumers’ increasing demands for sustainability. The study data set is obtained from a nationwide online survey of U.S consumers. Payment card method combined with ordered probit model is used to estimate consumer WTP. Preliminary results indicate that consumers who frequently purchase groceries in farmers markets or those who subscribe to community support agriculture services are willing to pay more for strawberries labeled intangible attributes. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230060 |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines dynamic patterns of land use, capital investments and wages in agriculture using farm panel data from Indonesia. The empirical analysis shows that with an increase in real wages that prevailed in both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors in rural areas, relatively larger farmers increased the size of operational farm land by renting in land. An increase in real wages has induced the substitution of labor by machines among relatively large farmers. Machines and land are complementary and, consistently, the inverse land-productivity relationship is reversed among relatively large holders. |
| Keywords: | Wage growth, farm size, mechanization, Indonesia, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, J31, Q12, Q15, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212611 |
| By: | Nakakeeto, Gertrude; Chidmi, Benaissa |
| Abstract: | Despite the human nutritional benefits of seafood such as shrimp, per capita consumption has been declining since 2004. A few studies have been conducted, but the literature is still limited. Indeed, studies that have analyzed the market demand for seafood and shrimp in the United States don’t furnish empirical estimates of the consumer behavior of this market. This void in literature is evident, as recent works have either used aggregated data on seafood or disaggregated shrimp data but focusing on shrimp imports. This paper uses the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) to estimate the demand for shrimp in Texas, using AC Nielsen Scanner consumption panel data collected from four metropolitan areas: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and West Texas. The data ranges from 2006 to 2010. The demand for shrimp is estimated in a system of demand equations for ten fish species. The availability of data on these various kinds of fish enables the assumption of separability of seafood from other food products. The results suggest that all the fish species considered are normal goods and that shrimp demand is price sensitive with an uncompensated own price elasticity of -1.53 and an income elasticity of 0.98. This is partly attributed to the fact that consumers view other fish types as substitutes for shrimp. |
| Keywords: | Key Words: Shrimp, Almost Ideal Demand System, elasticities, metropolitan areas., Demand and Price Analysis, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230142 |
| By: | J. Vernon Henderson; Tanner Regan; Anthony J. Venables |
| Abstract: | This paper models a growing city, and focuses on investment decisions and consequent patterns of land use and urban density. We distinguish between formal and informal sector construction. The former can be built tall (at a cost), but structures once built are durable and cannot be modified. Investments are based on expectations about future growth of the city. In contrast, informal structures are malleable and do not involve sunk costs. As the city grows areas will initially be developed informally, and then formally; formal areas are redeveloped periodically. This process can be hindered by land right issues which raise the costs of converting informal to formal sector development. The size and shape of the city are sensitive to the expected returns to durable investments and to the costs of converting informal to formal sector usage. We take the model to data on the built environment for Nairobi, to study urban growth and change between 2004 and 2015 in a context where population is growing at about 4% a year. We study the evolution of building footprints and heights, development at the fringe, infilling, and redevelopment of the formal sector. |
| Keywords: | city, urban, urban growth, slum development, urban structure, urban form, housing investment, capital durability |
| JEL: | O14 O18 R1 R3 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0196 |
| By: | Brenes-Munoz, Thelma |
| Abstract: | Previous studies of the industrial organization field find that the relationship between firm performance and growth is weak. The objective of this paper is to test this relationship at different quantiles of the firm growth distribution. We also explore the effect of technology gaps and export status on growth. For this, we use Penalized Quantile Regression with Fixed Effects on 420 Chilean agribusiness firms. Key results show that performance, measured as technical efficiency, has a significant and heterogeneous impact on revenue growth. The effect is stronger on slow growing firms: one point increase in technical efficiency increases revenue growth by 1.2 % at the 0.10 quantile, the effect is 0.4 % at the 0.90 quantile. Hence, two key aspects shall be considered in future studies of firm growth and performance: first, to use adequate indicators for performance which capture the entirety of the production process, and second, to consider the non-linearity of their relationship. |
| Keywords: | firm growth, technical efficiency, quantile regression, panel data, fixed effects, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, L20, D22, C21, C23, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229063 |
| By: | Rashid, Shahidur |
| Abstract: | Improving price discovery, linking smallholders to markets, reducing transactions costs, and increasing agricultural export earnings are some of the popular claims about benefits of Agricultural Commodity Exchanges (ACX) in developing countries. Based on the case studies, and a review of available literature, this paper examines the validity of these popular claims and associated public policies. Our analysis suggests that most of these popular claims cannot be supported by empirical evidence. While agricultural commodity exchanges have been successful in emerging countries, they have either failed or remain in operation with government or donor supports. Underlying reasons for the failures, considerations for future investments in such institutions, and implications for alternatives to centralized exchanges are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Marketing, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212488 |
| By: | Galor, Oded; Özak, Ömer |
| Abstract: | This research explores the origins of the distribution of time preference across regions. It advances the hypothesis, and establishes empirically that geographical variations in the natural return to agricultural investment have had a persistent effect on the distribution of time preference across societies. In particular, exploiting a natural experiment associated with the expansion of suitable crops for cultivation in the course of the Columbian Exchange, the research establishes that pre-industrial agro-climatic characteristics that were conducive to higher return to agricultural investment, triggered selection and learning processes that had a persistent positive effect on the prevalence of long-term orientation in the contemporary era. |
| Keywords: | Time preference, Delayed Gratification, Economic Growth, Culture, Agriculture, Economic Development, Evolution, Comparative Development, Human Capital, Education, Smoking |
| JEL: | D14 D9 E2 I12 I25 J24 J26 O1 O3 O4 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70719 |
| By: | Kihiu, Evelyne Nyathira; Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin |
| Abstract: | Productivity of rangelands in Kenya is affected by increasing crop farming especially in more fertile range areas. This encroachment by crop farming on rangelands occurs as a response of the rural livestock producers’ to economic opportunities with the development of local and international crop markets. We hypothesize that the existing market inefficiencies characterizing livestock markets, especially the price disincentives that livestock producers face, are a major risk rangelands face. To analyze the effect of livestock market conditions on rangeland management, we draw on household survey and economic modeling tools. We find that traders’ rent seeking behavior and high transport costs act as disincentives to livestock producers’ participation in livestock markets and influence their decisions in seeking alternative rangeland uses to sustain livelihoods. However, improved livestock market access enhances livestock producers’ livelihoods and the stewardship of the ecosystems thus reducing pastoralists’ vulnerability to ecological climate variability associated with rangelands. |
| Keywords: | Extensive livestock production, market access, ecological-economic model, positive mathematical programming (PMP) model, Kenya, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, Q13, Q15, Q24, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212273 |
| By: | BERNIELL, Inés |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the frequency at which workers are paid affects the within-month patterns of both household expenditure and aggregate economic activity. To identify causal effects, I exploit two novel sources of exogenous variation in pay frequency in the US. First, using a (as-good-as-random) variation in the pay frequency of retired couples, I show that those who are paid more frequently have smoother expenditure paths. Second, I take advantage of the cross-state variation in laws, and compare the patterns of economic activity in states with different legislation on pay frequency of wages. I document that low pay frequencies lead to within-month business cycles when many workers are paid on the same dates, which generates costly congestion in sectors with capacity constraints. These findings have important policy implications in a context where firms and workers do not internalize such congestion externalities, which generates market equilibria with suboptimally low pay frequencies. |
| Keywords: | Pay frequency, Within-month business cycles, Congestion |
| JEL: | J33 E21 E32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:mwp2016/05 |
| By: | FitzGerald, John; Chi, Pho Thi Kim; Lam, Do Van; Ha, Hoang; Huong, Luong; Dung, Tran |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the factors determining the long-run behaviour of the Vietnamese economy. Using a macro-economic model of the Vietnamese economy it considers some of the factors that have contributed to growth over the last decade and also some of the policy options for the rest of the decade. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp526 |
| By: | Gulati, Ashok; Saini, Shweta |
| Abstract: | India's policy responses were strong to the food price crisis. Exports of basic staples were banned, domestic support prices of wheat and rice were raised substantially, urea price increases in global markets were absorbed through enhanced fertilizer subsidy, and a National Food Security Mission was launched to raise grain production by 20 MMT over the next five years. The results: India contained food inflation below 7 percent in 2007-08; grain production increased by 42 MMT; and grains stocks touched 82 MMT. With freeing of exports in September 2011, India became a world leader in rice exports. The cost of this policy was rising subsidies on food and fertilizers, rising fiscal deficit, leading to double digit food inflation after 2009-10. Had India quickly reviewed its export ban policy, and opened exports earlier, it could avoid excessive grain stocks, reduced fiscal deficit, and benefited global markets, leading to a win-win situation. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212636 |
| By: | Nuppenau, Ernst-August |
| Abstract: | With the introduction of biofuels a conflict newly remerges between cash crops, mostly for export, and food crops, mostly for food security. It is also feared that mo-no-cropping threatens the agro-ecology in developing countries impeding future food security. We seek coexistence minimizing negative impacts on productivity. We show how to model explicitly land distribution and transition through a dynamic approach containing large- and small-scale sectors competing for land and labour as stocks. We display short- and long-term effects on competitiveness of sectors and degradation potentials are addressed. Specifically skill and knowledge acquisition are modelled as dynamic processes beside soil fertility. Additionally transaction co-sts on land development are reckoned. Land transfer and food pricing are modelled as control variables and distinguished from stock variables incl. human capital and soil fertility. Yet control (policy) variables are land taxing and food subsidies. Soil fertility in smallholder farms is based on manure; biofuel uses imported fertilizer. |
| Keywords: | Biofuel Expansion, Dynamic Policy Modelling, Control Theory, Food Security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, O4, Q13, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:225669 |
| By: | Gupta, Vivek; Bhandari, Basu D.; Gautam, Tej K. |
| Abstract: | Nepal is predominantly an agricultural country. More than 35% of its GDP depends on agriculture. About 65% of Nepalese people rely agriculture for their livelihood. Agricultural credit plays a major role in agricultural development. Different sources are available in the agricultural credit market in Nepal. Formal sources include agricultural development bank, farmers’ cooperatives, and other financial institutions while informal sources include borrowing from farmers group, women group, and money lender individual (mostly relatives). Several factors might play a role in selecting different credit sources: types of agricultural commodities, buying different operating inputs (machinery, seeds, and fertilizers), buying fixed inputs (machinery and equipment), interest rate, and reimbursement plan. In this paper, we want to determine which source is the most popular among the farmers of Nepal and explain why that particular source is a choice for farmers. We use Nepalese agricultural census data for the fiscal year 2011/12 and multinomial logit model for this analysis. The result of this study will explain the factors affecting the choice of agricultural credit and most popular credit sources in Nepal and come up with some policy recommendations. This would enrich literature in explaining the choice of agricultural credit sources in other developing countries like Nepal. |
| Keywords: | subsistence farming, commercial agriculture, cash crops, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230131 |
| By: | James Mak (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Tourism Improvement Districts (TIDs), modeled after the more well-known Business Improvement Districts (BIDs), are increasing rapidly in the U.S. With enabling legislation from state and local governments, TIDs allow hoteliers in a tourist destination to ban together to impose compulsory assessments on nearly all the hotels in the district in order to raise money to fund destination marketing. To date, research on TIDs have come almost exclusively from destination marketing organizations (DMOs), travel associations, TIDs, and consultants with vested interest in the formation and expansion of TIDs. This paper synthesizes information from available reports and attempts to provide a more balanced view of the role of TIDs in destination tourism marketing and promotion. |
| Keywords: | Tourism improvement district, tourism business improvement district, tourism marketing district |
| JEL: | H4 H7 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2016-2 |
| By: | Keita, Moussa |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to bring new perspectives on the death of distance hypothesis by examining to what extent the intensification of ICT has contributed to attenuate the effect of distance on international trade issues. Our analysis is based on an extended gravity model constituted of 2827 country pairs observed from 2002 to 2012. The model is estimated by using the Hausman-Taylor instrumental variable approach to deal with specificities of the panel gravity models that cannot be treated in classical fixed-effect or random-effect models. The estimations confirm significant beneficial effects of ICT regarding trade costs reduction. We found that bilateral trade costs are significantly low between countries that have a more densified communication network. And this effect appears to be strongly heterogeneous regarding the distance. In particular, we found that the impact of ICT on trade costs is greater when the distance between the trading partners is more important. We also found that the elasticity of trade costs to distance decreases as the level of ICT increases. These results appear robust to various sensitivity and robustness checks and are consistent with other studies. Finally, the results obtained in this study suggest the existence of strong distance-neutralizing effect of ICT. |
| Keywords: | ICT, Distance, Trade, Trade costs, infrastructure, Gravity model. |
| JEL: | F14 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69882 |
| By: | Benedikt Fecher; Mathis Fräßdorf; Gert G. Wagner |
| Abstract: | We live in a time of increasing publication rates and specialization of scientific disciplines. More and more, the research community is facing the challenge of assuring the quality of research and maintaining trust in the scientific enterprise. Replication studies are necessary to detect erroneous research. Thus, the replicability of research is considered a hallmark of good scientific practice and it has lately become a key concern for research communities and science policy makers alike. In this case study we analyze perceptions and practices regarding replication studies in the social and behavioral sciences. Our analyses are based on a survey of almost 300 researchers that use data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), a multidisciplinary longitudinal multi-cohort study. We find that more than two thirds of respondents disagree with the statement that replications are not worthwhile, because major mistakes will be found at some point anyway. Nevertheless, most respondents are not willing to spend their time to conduct replication studies. This situation can be characterized as a “tragedy of the commons”: everybody knows that replications are useful, but almost everybody counts on others to conduct them. Our most important finding concerning practical consequences is that among the few replications that are reported, a large majority is conducted in the context of teaching. In our view, this is a promising detail: in order to foster replicability, one avenue may be to make replication studies a mandatory part of curricula as well as of doctoral theses. Furthermore, we argue that replication studies need to be more attractive for researchers. For example, successful replications could be listed in the publication lists of replicated authors. Vice versa, data sharing needs to receive more recognition, for example by considering data production and subsequent data sharing as scientific output. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp839 |
| By: | Siegfried Gruber (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Rembrandt D. Scholz (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | - |
| Keywords: | Germany, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-001 |
| By: | Johannes Horner (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Nicolas Lambert (Stanford Graduate School of Business - Knight Management Center) |
| Abstract: | Rating systems not only provide information to users but also motivate the rated agent. This paper solves for the optimal (effort-maximizing) rating system within the standard career concerns framework. It is a mixture two-state rating system. That is, it is the sum of two Markov processes, with one that reflects the belief of the rater and the other the preferences of the rated agent. The rating, however, is not a Markov process. Our analysis shows how the rating combines information of different types and vintages. In particular, an increase in effort may affect some (but not all) future ratings adversely. |
| Keywords: | Career Concerns, Mechanism Design, Ratings |
| JEL: | C72 C73 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2035 |
| By: | Gauti B. Eggertsson; Neil R. Mehrotra; Lawrence H. Summers |
| Abstract: | Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth – now characterize much of the global economy. We consider a simple two-country textbook model to examine how capital markets transmit secular stagnation and to study policy externalities across countries. We find capital flows transmit recessions in a world with low interest rates and that policies that trigger current account surpluses are beggar-thy-neighbor. Monetary expansion cannot eliminate a secular stagnation and may have beggar-thy-neighbor effects, while sufficiently large fiscal interventions can eliminate a secular stagnation and carry positive externalities. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F3 F44 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22172 |
| By: | Hills, Robert (Bank of England); Reinhardt, Dennis (Bank of England); Sowerbutts, Rhiannon (Bank of England); Wieladek, Tomasz (Barclays Capital) |
| Abstract: | This paper forms the United Kingdom’s contribution to the International Banking Research Network’s project examining the cross-border spillovers of prudential policy actions, where each participant in the network uses proprietary bank-level data available to central banks. We examine whether UK-owned banks’ domestic lending is affected by prudential actions in other countries where they have exposures. We also examine the impact of a change in prudential policy in a foreign-owned UK-resident bank’s home jurisdiction on its lending to the United Kingdom. Our results suggest that prudential actions taken abroad do not have significant spillover effects on bank lending in the UK economy as a whole. But there are more granular effects: for instance, when a foreign authority tightens loan-to-value standards, UK affiliates of banks owned from that country expand their lending to UK households and corporates. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policies; bank lending; spillovers; capital flows |
| JEL: | F32 F34 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0595 |
| By: | Tong Yen Dan (School of Economics & Business Administration, Can Tho University) |
| Keywords: | Dike Heightening, Cost-Benefit Analysis, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160424 |
| By: | Alessandro Gavazza |
| Abstract: | I estimate a search-and-bargaining model of a decentralized market to quantify the effects of trading frictions on asset allocations, asset prices and welfare, and to quantify the effects of intermediaries that facilitate trade. Using business-aircraft data, I find that, relative to the Walrasian benchmark, 18.3 percent of the assets are misallocated; prices are 19.2-percent lower; and the aggregate welfare losses equal 23.9 percent. Dealers play an important role in reducing trading frictions: In a market with no dealers, a larger fraction of assets would be misallocated, and prices would be higher. However, dealers reduce aggregate welfare because their operations are costly, and they impose a negative externality by decreasing the number of agents’ direct transactions. |
| JEL: | J1 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66234 |
| By: | Hermanto (Ministry of Agriculture) |
| Keywords: | food security, subsidy, climate change |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160450 |
| By: | Christian Catalini; Christian Fons-Rosen; Patrick Gaulé |
| Abstract: | We test how a reduction in travel cost affects the rate and direction of scientific research. Using a fine-grained, scientist-level dataset within chemistry (1991-2012), we find that after Southwest Airlines enters a new route, scientific collaboration increases by 50%, an effect that is magnified when weighting output by quality. The benefits from the lower fares, however, are not uniform across scientist types: younger scientists and scientists that are more productive than their local peers respond the most. Thus, cheaper flights, by reducing frictions otherwise induced by geography and allowing for additional face-to-face interactions, seem to enable better matches over distance. |
| Keywords: | scientific collaboration, air travel, temporary co-location, face-to-face meetings |
| JEL: | R4 L93 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:898 |
| By: | Gem B. Castillo (Resource and Environmental Economics Foundation of the Philippines, Inc. (REAP)); Somaly Chan (Department of Nature Conservation & Protection, Ministry of Environment Cambodia); Li Wenjun (Department of Environmental Management, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University); Li Yanbo (Visayas State University); H. Luthfi Fatah (Lambung Mangkurat University); Sivannakone Malivarn (Water Resources and Environment Administration); Kian Foh Lee (WWF-Malaysia (Peninsular Malaysia Office-HQ)); Alexander D. Anda, Jr (Resources, Environment And Economic Center For Studies (REECS)); Prinyarat Laengcharoen (Thailand Development Research Institute); Pham Duc Chien (Forest Science Institute of Vietnam (FSIV)); Benoit Laplante (EEPSEA) |
| Keywords: | Assessment, Protected Area, Southeast Asia |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160426 |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Pacific Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Pacific Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | This report assesses the impact of climate change on agriculture and fisheries in three Pacific Island countries, including the impacts on agricultural production, economic returns for major crops, and food security. Alternative adaption policies are examined in order to provide policy options that reduce the impact of climate change on food security. The overall intention is to provide a clear message for development practitioners and policymakers about how to cope with the threats, as well as understand the opportunities, surrounding ongoing climate change. Project countries include Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands. |
| Keywords: | pacific countries, climate change, food security, socioeconomic livelihood, agriculture, fisheries |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157643-2 |
| By: | Chunhua Wang (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics) |
| Keywords: | Energy Consumption,Carbon Emissions, China |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr20160338 |
| By: | KATO Takao; KODAMA Naomi |
| Abstract: | Using panel data on corporate social responsibility (CSR) matched with corporate proxy statement data for a large and representative sample of 1,492 publicly-traded firms in Japan over 2006-2014, we provide rigorous econometric evidence on the effects of CSR on gender diversity in the workplace. Our fixed effect estimates point to positive and significant effects on gender diversity of CSR, yet the effects are felt only after two to three years. Such CSR effects are found to be larger and more significant for firms that adhere more closely to the traditional Japanese management model with employee stakeholder salience, which is mostly consistent with an influential theory of CSR--the theory of stakeholder salience. The magnitude of the effects is neither trivial nor implausibly large. For those firms that adhere closely to the participatory model, one standard deviation increase in our summary CSR score, after three years, will result in 0.8 more female college graduate hires from its mean of 17.5; 1.7 more female managers from its mean of 26.2; and 0.16 more female directors from its mean of 1.69. Finally, the positive and significant CSR effects on gender diversity are found to be robust to the inclusion of controls capturing the possible effects of various work-life balance (WLB) practices on gender diversity, pointing to the direct impact of CSR on gender diversity rather than the CSR effects mediated by WLB. In designing and revising various public policies to achieve their current key policy goal of advancement of women in the labor market, Japanese policy makers may want to pay more attention to a potentially important role that CSR plays in gender diversity in the workplace in general and the heterogeneity of the CSR effects and their considerable gestation period in particular. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16063 |
| By: | Adusumilli, Naveen; Fromme, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Cover crop adoption by producers as part of a production cycle depends on their objectives regrading time management, cost vs benefits, and environmental obligations. A myriad of studies that examined the economics of cover crops found them to be often idiosyncratic, i.e., results depend on the region, weather patterns, soil type, and management practices. The studies determined that lack of long-term economic outlook for the incorporation of cover crops as one of the factors for their minimal adoption in many parts of the country. Thus, we aim to assess the economic impact of long-term adoption of cover crops as part of a production cycle. Partial budgeting tool, CoverCropEconomics, is used to generate the overall costs and benefits. The data on agronomic variables, i.e., yield, organic matter, applied nitrogen, soil microbial counts, and among others are obtained from a 30-year cover crop research conducted in Northwest Louisiana. The research reported a significant increase in yield for crops planted following cover crops. Additionally, research shows improvements in soil nitrogen and soil organic matter suggesting added profits to the farmer. Accounting for those economic and agronomic variables, overall long term net benefits of incorporating cover crops amount to 1,354 per acre, with majority of the benefits contribution through yield increase of cash crop. The results can be useful for conservation agencies to evaluate their current incentive payments toward cover crop adoption. |
| Keywords: | Cover crops, incentives, conservation, capital budgeting, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q10, Q24, Q25, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230024 |
| By: | Arfaoui, Mongi; Ben Rejeb, Aymen |
| Abstract: | This paper takes a global perspective in examining relationships among oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices, using simultaneous equations system to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period spanning from January 1995 to October 2015. Results show significant interactions between the all parties. Indeed, we found negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by stock markets, gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil future prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold price is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock market prices but slightly depend on US oil imports and corporate default premium. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold prices and also by US consumer price index. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets. |
| Keywords: | Oil price; gold price; trade weighted exchange rate; stock market; simultaneous equations |
| JEL: | F3 G15 Q02 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70452 |
| By: | Kibira, M.; Affognon, H.; Njehia, B.; Muriithi, Beatrice; Ekesi, S. |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluated economic benefits of managing mango infesting fruit flies in Embu County, Kenya using Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategy that composed of Male Annihilation Technique (MAT), protein bait spray, releases of exotic parasitoid Fopius arisanus and the use of augmentorium. The Difference-in-difference (DD) method was used to assess the impact of the mango IPM on magnitude of mango rejection and insecticide expenditure and net income. The study revealed that on average, mango IPM participants had approximately 54.5 percent reduction in magnitude of mango rejection; spent 46.3 percent less on insecticide per acre and received approximately 22.4 percent more net income than the non participants. These imply a high economic benefit from the application of the fruit flies IPM technology and mango farmers would profit significantly if the intervention is expanded to widely cover other mango growing areas in Kenya. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211846 |
| By: | Pohit, Sanjib; Jamal, Tabassum; Suman, Yogesh; Kumar Yadav, Nitesh; Kumar Saini, Mahesh |
| Abstract: | Though India has comparative advantage in labour intensive sector like textile, India’s performance in this sector is not too impressive on the export front. In this context, this paper argues that lack of innovation culture could be one of the principal reasons for India’s poor performance. This hypothesis is tested by conducing primary survey in one of the more dynamic textile cluster in Northern India namely, Surat and adjoining areas. Our findings do indicate lack of product as well as organisational innovation culture in this region, which may be a serious bottleneck in competitive export market. We do find that firms score well in respect of marketing innovation which probably suggests that competitive pressure has increased due to the globalization of the economy. Firms are also found to be keen in respect of process innovation to reduce cost in the aftermath of increased pace of competition in the sector. |
| Keywords: | Textile industry, Surat, Innovation, Survey |
| JEL: | L67 |
| Date: | 2016–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70470 |
| By: | Chang, Andrew C. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of increased market concentration of the banking industry caused by the Riegle-Neal Interstate Banking and Branching Efficiency Act (IBBEA) on the availability of finance for small firms engaged in research and development (R&D). I measure the financing decisions of these small firms using a balanced panel of Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) applications. Using difference-in-differences, I find IBBEA decreased the supply of finance for small R&D firms. This effect is larger for late adopters of IBBEA, which tended to be states with stronger small banking sectors pre-IBBEA. |
| Keywords: | Banking Deregulation ; IBBEA ; Interstate Bank Branching Deregulation ; Market Concentration ; Research and Development ; Riegle-Neal ; Small Business Innovation Research |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G39 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-29 |
| By: | Kabata, Tshepelayi |
| Abstract: | This paper appraises the environmental performance of US agriculture with respect to water pollution from pesticides through a parametric approach. The performance of the 48 continental States is evaluated through a translog stochastic and hyperbolic distance function allowing an environmentally adjusted productivity index and its components technical and efficiency change from 1960-1996. Water pollution is captured by four indicators of risk developed by Ball et al. (2004) : i) risk to human health from exposure to pesticide leaching; ii) risk to human health from exposure to pesticide runoff; iii) risk to aquatic life from exposure to pesticide leaching and iv) risk to aquatic life from exposure to pesticide runoff. The resulting environmentally adjusted productivity growth is slower than the conventional one but still driven by technical progress. Further finding reveals that innovation in the sector is biased toward crop and livestock rather than pollution mitigation. Results also show a potential for crops and livestock expansion and a contraction in water pollution and inputs. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212626 |
| By: | Dino Borie (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis; GREDEG CNRS); Dorian Jullien (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis; GREDEG CNRS) |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to provide an axiomatic framework that can account for framing effects violating the so-called axiom of description invariance. Most existing discussions of the latter in economics are made with respect to Kahneman and Tversky's 1980s work. However, other psychologists have, over the last twenty-five years or so, progressively refined the conditions under which framing effects violating description invariance hold. Our axiomatic framework is motivated by these developments. We argue that description invariance is an implicit axiom of the standard model primarily on the formal structure of its object of choice and only derivatively on the formal structure of preferences. The conditions under which it is violated in psychologists' experiments are a useful guide to make it formally explicit. Furthermore, they also provide normative justifications for weakening it. We propose a way to do so in a mathematically tractable fashion that can account for all the variations in framing effects for which prospect theory cannot (at least straightforwardly) account for. |
| Keywords: | Framing effects, description invariance, axiomatic framework |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-14 |
| By: | Ian Gordon |
| Abstract: | This paper documents and seeks to explain the remarkably positive employment trends of a central area of London in the years since the onset of the financial crisis. The volatility of this economy since the 1980s had suggested the likelihood of a sharp loss of jobs, maybe followed by a strong bounce-back, if the finance sector could overcome reputational damage from its role in the debacle of 2007-8. In fact this area proved both the most resilient in the downturn and the most dynamic in the upturn, accounting for all/most net job gains in the UK. This paper considers three types of explanation for this positive outcome - in terms of: fundamental economic strengths allowing it to keep going through generally tough times; an advantaged position in relation to elite choices about resource allocation and restructuring in the face of a general fiscal/commercial squeeze; and (less conventionally) the impact of massive support to/through the banking sector, in first mitigating impacts of the downturn for the financial centre, and then fuelling another global city boom. The last of these is argued to be key to understanding not only why central London has done so well since the crisis, but how it is still liable to be 'the capital of boom and bust'. |
| Keywords: | spatial imbalance, regional economic fluctuation, financial centre, monetary |
| JEL: | R11 R12 E58 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0193 |
| By: | Viccaro, Mauro; Rocchi, Benedetto; Cozzi, Mario; Severino, Marino |
| Abstract: | The aim of this work was to assess the socioeconomic impact derived from the oil royalty allocation on regional development, using a multi-sector model based on a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), appropriately implemented for Basilicata region (Italy), the typical case of a region lagging behind in a developed economy. Our focus was on how political decisions have influenced the economic development of the region and how a different set of choices can be more effective in transforming public receipts into long-term benefits. Results clearly show that in the past the allocation of oil royalties to the regional government (as a whole €990 million) generated a much lower impact than expected, in terms of economic growth and employment. Given the structure of the regional economy, much of the impact of investments and running expenses financed by royalties has maybe been lost outside the regional boundaries. A greater effect on income and employment will not be possible unless resources are re-directed towards greater competitiveness of the regional economic system. Better balancing the use of royalties between social expenditure and production investments would probably be the first step towards a strategy of sustainable development of the regional economy. |
| Keywords: | social accounting matrix, multi-sector models, natural resource curse, regional development, oil allocation, Agricultural and Food Policy, E16 – Q01 – Q35 – R15 – R58, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea15:207861 |
| By: | Maria Chiaria Morandini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an explanatory analysis of the political economy of recent labour market reforms recently implemented in Italy. Analysing preferences for a general reduction in employment protection through 2011-13 ITANES survey data, results are partially in line with the insider-outsider theory: self-employed, retired people, managers, craft business and shop owners are in favour of such institutional change as are retired that are not concerned by this kind of reform. Support from “outsiders”, unemployed and atypical workers did not strongly emerge. Ideologically, positive opinions are widespread among right-wing voters whilst people feeling chose to trade unions oppose it. Geographically, consensus is greather in the industrialised North-East of the country. Comparing our results with findings on voting behaviour in 2013, we advance the hypothesis that the current incumbents' political strategy is not as paradoxical as it seems. At odds with the idea of socialist parties defending “insiders” unionised workers and in line with a generalised detachment between the working class and socialist parties, both the main leftist and centrist parties in the ruling coalition are in fact gaining consensus among the social groups that are the most favourable to labour market flexibilisation, making these policy consistent with an attempt to please these constituencies. |
| Keywords: | labour market reforms,public preferences,survey analysis,italian capitalism |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01306097 |
| By: | Niemi, Jarkko; Hyytiainen, Kari; Camara, Astou; Fall, Cheick; Msangi, Siwa |
| Abstract: | Semi-arid regions in the Sahel have faced increasing environmental pressure due to population growth and decreasing rainfall. Building on earlier research we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model that describes extensive, common-pasture-based livestock under stochastic and spatially varying weather. We extend previous research by allowing animals’ movements between two regions and allow decisions to be adjusted when new information about the weather arrives. Decision rules to sell and move animals under exogenous price, market and climate scenarios are investigated. Our numerical analysis demonstrates that in the absence of efficient feed markets and under unpredictable weather, transhumance can be a rational livestock management strategy. Increased frequency of extreme weather conditions, such as heavy drought or rainfall, can have cross-regional spillovers and larger impacts on livestock husbandry than gradual changes in the mean annual rainfall or temperature suggest. Hence, policies should aim at mitigating the negative consequences of extreme weather across regions. |
| Keywords: | livestock, common pasture, grazing, climate change, climate variability, drought, resilience, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, D80, O13, Q12, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212531 |
| By: | Sylvia Gottschalk |
| Abstract: | We compare two models of corporate default by calculating the Jeffreys-Kullback-Leibler divergence between their predicted default probabilities when asset correlations are either high or low. Our main results show that the divergence between the two models increases in highly correlated, volatile, and large markets, but that it is closer to zero in small markets, when asset correlations are low and firms are highly leveraged. These findings suggest that during periods of financial instability the single-and multi-factor models of corporate default will generate increasingly inconsistent predictions. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.07042 |
| By: | KURODA Sachiko; YAMAMOTO Isamu |
| Abstract: | Overwork is widely acknowledged as the main culprit behind mental health issues, but research in social science and epidemiology seldomly considers an adequate range of factors when investigating that connection. Using longitudinal data of Japanese workers over four consecutive years, this study investigates how the number of hours worked, job characteristics, and workplace circumstances affect workers' mental health. Using widely used scores in epidemiology to measure the degrees of mental health (General Health Questionnaire), our main findings are as follows. First, long work hours contribute significantly to deteriorations in respondents' mental health, even after controlling for individual fixed effects and other characteristics. Second, the relationship between work hours and mental health is not linear. Working more than 50 hours per week notably erodes the mental health of workers. Third, clear job descriptions, ability to exercise discretion in performing tasks, and workplace atmosphere significantly influence respondents' mental health after controlling for hours worked. Fourth, if a coworker is suffering from mental illness at the workplace, the mental health of other workers are also likely to be poor. These findings suggest that proper workplace practices, including management of work hours, would affirmatively improve workers' mental health. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16017 |
| By: | María Santana-Gallego, Jaume Rosselló-Nadal and Johan Fourie |
| Abstract: | This article examines the effect of terrorism, crime and corruption on tourist arrivals for 171 countries for the period 1995–2013. We apply two types of analysis: a tourism demand model and a disaggregation of tourism arrivals by origin. The findings of the tourism demand model are that terrorism and crime have a negative effect on tourist arrivals but that corruption has no effect; that the effects of terrorism and crime are greater for leisure tourism than for business tourism but that corruption affects only business tourism; and that the effects of terrorism, crime and corruption depend on the attractiveness of the destination country and its level of development. The data on tourist arrivals disaggregated by origin are used to study the effects of instability in the destination and the origin country and to compare the instability measures of the two countries. Here the findings are that terrorism, crime and corruption in the destination country have a negative effect on inbound tourism but that instability in the origin country has no clear effect on tourist departures; and that tourists from stable countries prefer travelling to countries with the same stability but tourists from unstable countries are more tolerant of crime, terrorism and corruption in the destination country. |
| Keywords: | terrorism, crime, corruption, international tourism, gravity model |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:595 |
| By: | Darmody, Merike; Smyth, Emer |
| Abstract: | Drawing on curriculum differentiation theory, this paper discusses exemptions from learning Irish granted to Irish post-primary students. In order to explore the profile of students granted such exemptions, the study utilises data from a national longitudinal study, Growing Up in Ireland. Additional information is provided by administrative data collected by the Department of Education and Skills to show trends in the number of exemptions granted over time. The findings show that factors impacting on being exempt include gender, social class, having a special educational need at primary school and being born outside Ireland. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp527 |
| By: | Potter, Simon M. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Workshop organized by Columbia University School of International Affairs and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May 2016. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy implementation framework; counterparties; the Desk; excess reserves; interest on reserves; sterilization of operations; reverse repurchase agreements (RRPs) |
| Date: | 2016–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:208 |
| By: | Maria Chiara Morandini (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an explanatory analysis of the political economy of recent labour market reforms recently implemented in Italy. Analysing preferences for a general reduction in employment protection through 2011-13 ITANES survey data, results are partially in line with the insider-outsider theory: self-employed, retired people, managers, craft business and shop owners are in favour of such institutional change as are retired that are not concerned by this kind of reform. Support from “outsiders”, unemployed and atypical workers did not strongly emerge. Ideologically, positive opinions are widespread among right-wing voters whilst people feeling chose to trade unions oppose it. Geographically, consensus is greather in the industrialised North-East of the country. Comparing our results with findings on voting behaviour in 2013, we advance the hypothesis that the current incumbents' political strategy is not as paradoxical as it seems. At odds with the idea of socialist parties defending “insiders” unionised workers and in line with a generalised detachment between the working class and socialist parties, both the main leftist and centrist parties in the ruling coalition are in fact gaining consensus among the social groups that are the most favourable to labour market flexibilisation, making these policy consistent with an attempt to please these constituencies |
| Keywords: | labour market reforms; public preferences; survey analysis; italian capitalism |
| JEL: | P16 J08 D72 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:16023 |
| By: | Karen Clay; Joshua Lewis; Edson Severnini |
| Abstract: | Pollution is a common byproduct of economic activity. Although policymakers should account for both the benefits and the negative externalities of polluting activities, it is difficult to identify those who are harmed and those who benefit from them. To overcome this challenge, our paper uses a novel dataset on the mid-20th century expansion of the U.S. power grid to study the costs and the benefits of coal-fired electricity generation. The empirical analysis exploits the timing of coal-fired power plant openings and annual variation in plant-level coal consumption from 1938 to 1962, when emissions were virtually unregulated. Pollution from the burning of coal for electricity generation is shown to have quantitatively important and nonlinear effects on county-level infant mortality rates. By 1962, it was responsible for 3,500 infant deaths per year, over one death per thousand live births. These effects are even larger at lower levels of coal consumption. We also find evidence of clear tradeoffs associated with coal-fired electricity generation. For counties with low access to electricity in the baseline, increases in local power plant coal consumption reduced infant mortality and increased housing values and rental prices. For counties with near universal access to electricity in the baseline, increases in coal consumption by power plants led to higher infant mortality rates, and lower housing values and rental prices. These results highlight the importance of considering both the costs and benefits of polluting activities, and suggest that demand for policy intervention may emerge only when the negative externalities are significantly larger than the perceived benefits. |
| JEL: | I18 N22 Q52 Q53 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22155 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. European Dept. |
| Abstract: | Strong growth this year looks set to continue into the medium term. The authorities are seeking to accelerate growth and development, mainly through new infrastructure projects, but also with fiscal incentives. Although this growth strategy can bring substantial gains, it also poses sizeable risks, notably to public finances, and also in terms of the allocation of capital and financial stability. Gross debt has increased substantially over the past year and looks likely to increase significantly, to 80 percent of GDP. Staff recommends immediate and durable fiscal consolidation measures to limit risks to the public finances and to ensure favorable conditions for funding, particularly to the extent that further infrastructure projects would require additional public debt. Fiscal consolidation is also important for improving external balance, especially as the economy lacks independent monetary policy. A credible strategy to safeguard the health of the public finances would address longstanding problems with public expenditures, such as the very high level of spending on pensions and public sector wages. Measures should be supported by strengthening the fiscal framework and public financial management. |
| Keywords: | Europe;Montenegro;debt, monetary fund, financial stability, lending, public finances |
| Date: | 2016–03–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:16/79 |
| By: | Gabriel Angarita Tovar |
| Date: | 2016–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000139:014516 |
| By: | Nguyen Thi Y Ly (Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Agriculture and Forestry); Pham Thanh Nam (Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Agriculture and Forestry) |
| Keywords: | payment for enviromental services, Southeast Asia |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160438 |
| By: | Karen Davtyan (AQR Research Group-IREA. University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | The distributional effect of monetary policy is estimated in the case of the USA. In order to identify a monetary policy shock, the paper employs contemporaneous restrictions with ex-ante identified monetary policy shocks as well as log run identification. In particular, a cointegration relation has been determined among the considered variables and the vector error correction methodology has been applied for the identification of the monetary policy shock. The obtained results indicate that contractionary monetary policy decreases income inequality in the country. These results could have important implications for the design of policies to reduce income inequality by giving more weight to monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality; monetary policy; cointegration; identification. JEL classification: C32; D31; E52 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201606 |
| By: | Irisbekova Mavluda |
| Abstract: | As a double land-locked country Uzbekistan craves for any additional opportunity to have extra more transport infrastructure in order make both export and import process easy and cost-effective. It is clear that Soviet transport legacy that was designed in a Moscow-centric manner is not sufficient at all for satisfying country’s wider and diverse needs in transportation, e.g. more comfortable access to sea ports. The Trans-Asian Railway project that in its very sense assumes connecting almost all countries of such a huge continent as Asia, including Uzbekistan, with each other on the one hand and with Europe on other, means a lot for this young nation that is actively growing with average GDP growth of %7 a year and intensive attraction of foreign direct investments. Key words: railway, trans-asian railway, transport infrastructure, investments |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-03-18 |
| By: | Alasdair Brown (University of East Anglia); Dooruj Rambaccussing (University of Dundee); J. James Reade (University of Reading); Giambattista Rossi (Birkbeck, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Information extracted from social media has been used by academics, and increasingly by practitioners, to predict stock returns. But to what extent does social media output predict asset fundamentals, and not simply short-term returns? In this paper we analyse 13.8m posts on Twitter, and high-frequency betting data from Betfair, concerning English Premier League soccer matches in 2013/14. Crucially, asset fundamentals are revealed at the end of play. We find that the Tweets of certain journalists, and the tone of all Tweets, contain fundamental information not revealed in betting prices. In particular, Tweets aid in the interpretation of news during matches. |
| Keywords: | social media; prediction markets; fundamentals; sentiment; mispricing |
| JEL: | G14 G17 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-002 |
| By: | Abhijit Banerjee; Sylvain Chassang; Erik Snowberg |
| Abstract: | A modern, decision-theoretic framework can help clarify important practical questions of experimental design. Building on our recent work, this chapter begins by summarizing our framework for understanding the goals of experimenters, and applying this to re-randomization. We then use this framework to shed light on questions related to experimental registries, pre-analysis plans, and most importantly, external validity. Our framework implies that even when large samples can be collected, external decision-making remains inherently subjective. We embrace this conclusion, and argue that in order to improve external validity, experimental research needs to create a space for structured speculation. |
| JEL: | B23 C9 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22167 |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | This study presents new evidence on firms' attitudes toward artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics, as well as their attitude toward the impacts of these new technologies on future business and employment prospects. The data used in this paper are the results of our original survey of more than 3,000 Japanese firms. The major findings can be summarized as follows. First, firms operating in the service industry have a positive attitude on the effects of AI-related technologies, suggesting the importance of paying attention to "AI-using industries." Second, we observe complementarity between AI-related technologies and the skill level of employees. This finding suggests that in order to accelerate the development and diffusion of AI and to maintain employment opportunities, it will be necessary to upgrade human capital. Third, firms that engage in global markets tend to have a positive attitude toward the impacts of AI-related technologies, indicating that globalization of economic activities will facilitate the development and diffusion of these new technologies. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16066 |
| By: | Rebecca Diamond; Petra Persson |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the long-term consequences of teacher discretion in grading of high-stakes tests. Evidence is currently lacking, both on which students receive test score manipulation and on whether such manipulation has any real, long-term consequences. We document extensive test score manipulation of Swedish nationwide math tests taken in the last year before high school, by showing significant bunching in the distribution of test scores above discrete grade cutoffs. We find that teachers use their discretion to adjust the test scores of students who have "a bad test day," but that they do not discriminate based on gender or immigration status. We then develop a Wald estimator that allows us to harness quasi-experimental variation in whether a student receives test score manipulation to identify its effect on students' longer-term outcomes. Despite the fact that test score manipulation does not, per se, raise human capital, it has far-reaching consequences for the beneficiaries, raising their grades in future classes, high school graduation rates, and college initiation rates; lowering teen birth rates; and raising earnings at age 23. The mechanism at play suggests important dynamic complementarities: Getting a higher grade on the test serves as an immediate signaling mechanism within the educational system, motivating students and potentially teachers; this, in turn, raises human capital; and the combination of higher effort and higher human capital ultimately generates substantial labor market gains. This highlights that a higher grade may not primarily have a signaling value in the labor market, but within the educational system itself. |
| JEL: | I20 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22207 |
| By: | Rammer, Christian; Peters, Bettina |
| Abstract: | Der Beitrag untersucht, inwieweit hinter der oft konstatierten Investitionsschwäche der europäischen Wirtschaft eine Strukturverschiebung von materiellen zu immateriellen Investitionen steht. Da letztere nur zum Teil unter den Investitionsbegriff der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung fallen, könnte der beobachtbare Rückgang der Investitionsquote nur ein scheinbarer sein, da ihm steigende Ausgaben für die Bildung von immateriellem Kapital wie z.B. unternehmerischen Kompetenzen (u.a. Markenwerte, Humanund Organisationskapital) oder anderen Formen nichttechnischen neuen Wissens gegenüberstehen. Auf Basis von Daten der gewerblichen Wirtschaft Deutschlands zeigen wir zum einen, dass in der Tat Ausgaben für immaterielle Kapitalgüter im vergangenen Jahrzehnt deutlich stärker angestiegen sind als die Investitionen für Sachkapital. Zweitens belegen mikroökonometrische Panelanalysen, dass diese Investitionen höhere Produktivitätsbeiträge leisten als Sachkapitalinvestitionen und somit für die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Unternehmen immer wichtiger werden. Die Wirtschaftspolitik sollte daher die steuerlichen und finanziellen Rahmenbedingungen für immaterielle Investitionen verbessern. |
| JEL: | O31 L22 G31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16037 |
| By: | Alfredo Fuentes Hernández; Martha Delgado |
| Abstract: | El estudio analiza la evolución de los tributos pagados por la operación minera de El Cerrejón a la Nación, el departamento de La Guajira y los municipios que hacen parte de su área de influencia. Adicionalmente, describe la situación de las finanzas públicas del departamento y de los Índices de Desempeño Fiscal e Integral para los 5 municipios del área de influencia de la operación minera. Por último, presenta las tendencias de la inversión social en La Guajira, con énfasis en las inversiones financiadas con recursos del Sistema General de Regalías –SGR, y detalla algunos mecanismos jurídico-institucionales que contribuirían a financiar, priorizar y coordinar esfuerzos de inversión social en el departamento. |
| Keywords: | Finanzas Públicas, ImpuestosInversión Social, Sistema General de Regalías, Finanzas Territoriales, Inversiones Públicas, Minería, Impuestos Locales, CerrejónLa Guajira |
| JEL: | L71 L78 O13 R5 |
| Date: | 2016–02–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:014439 |
| By: | Philip Ernst; Dean Foster; Larry Shepp |
| Abstract: | We pose an optimal control problem arising in a perhaps new model for retirement investing. Given a control function $f$ and our current net worth as $X(t)$ for any $t$, we invest an amount $f(X(t))$ in the market. We need a fortune of $M$ "superdollars" to retire and want to retire as early as possible. We model our change in net worth over each infinitesimal time interval by the Ito process $dX(t)= (1+f(X(t))dt+ f(X(t))dW(t)$. We show how to choose the optimal $f=f_0$ and show that the choice of $f_0$ is optimal among all nonanticipative investment strategies, not just among Markovian ones. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.01028 |
| By: | Arthur Campbell; Florian Ederer; Johannes Spinnewijn |
| Abstract: | We study two sources of delay in teams: freeriding and lack of communication. Partners contribute to the value of a common project, but have private information about the success of their own efforts. When the deadline is far away, unsuccessful partners freeride on each others' efforts. When the deadline draws close, successful partners stop revealing their success to maintain their partners' motivation. We derive comparative statics results for common team performance measures and find that the optimal deadline maximizes productive efforts while avoiding unnecessary delays. Welfare is higher when information is only privately observable rather than revealed to the partnership. |
| JEL: | D82 D83 M54 O30 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:56861 |
| By: | Roland G. Fryer, Jr |
| Abstract: | Starting in the 2013-2014 school year, I conducted a randomized field experiment in fifty traditional public elementary schools in Houston, Texas designed to test the potential productivity benefits of teacher specialization in schools. Treatment schools altered their schedules to have teachers specialize in a subset of subjects in which they have demonstrated relative strength (based on value-add measures and principal observations). The average impact of teacher specialization on student achievement is -0.042 standard deviations in math and -0.034 standard deviations in reading, per year. Students enrolled in special education and those with younger teachers demonstrated marked negative results. I argue that the results are consistent with a model in which the benefits of specialization driven by sorting teachers into a subset of subjects based on comparative advantage is outweighed by inefficient pedagogy due to having fewer interactions with each student. Consistent with this, specialized teachers report providing less attention to individual students (relative to non-specialized teachers), though other mechanisms are possible. |
| JEL: | D24 I20 J0 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22205 |
| By: | Seamus Hogan (University of Canterbury); Richard Watt (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | In February of 2011, an earthquake destroyed the only all-weather athletics track in the city of Christchurch (New Zealand). The track has yet to be replaced, and so since the loss of the track, local Christchurch athletes have only had a grass track for training and preparation for championship events. This paper considers what effect the loss of the training facility has had on the performance of athletes from Christchurch at national championship events. Not surprisingly, the paper finds that there has been a deterioration in the performance in events that are heavily dependent upon the all-weather surface. However, somewhat more surprisingly, the loss of the track appears to have caused a significant improvement in the performance of Christchurch athletes in events that, while on the standard athletics programme, are not heavily track dependent. |
| Keywords: | sports economics, athletics facilities |
| JEL: | Z2 C4 |
| Date: | 2016–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/13 |
| By: | Patricia Rogers; UNICEF Office of Research - Innocenti |
| Abstract: | Une théorie du changement explique comment les activités sont censées produire un ensemble de résultats qui contribuent à la réalisation des impacts finaux prévus. Elle peut être élaborée pour tous les niveaux d’intervention : événement, projet, programme, politique, stratégie ou organisation. |
| Keywords: | research methodology; |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:metbri:metbri802 |
| By: | Bouoiyour, Jamal; Selmi, Refk; Miftah, Amal |
| Abstract: | This study fleshes out the role that may play the Arab revolution in strengthening regional integration. It rigorously assesses the extent of change in the degree of financial interdependence among Arab Monarchies (i.e., Arab Gulf countries, Jordan and Morocco) with the onset of the Arab Spring events. Our results reveal a significant time-varying volatility spillover effects, highlighting a greater interdependency across the focal Arab stock markets. It is also well shown that compared to the Morocco, there is a higher degree of financial integration of Jordan vis-à-vis the Gulf countries. Notably, a different integration patterns arises when accounting for the aftermath of revolution. Under the post-uprisings period, the stock market correlation between Morocco and Gulf countries increase substantially to values as high as the ones of Jordan. This implies that the Arab Spring has changed the nature of shock transmission between these countries, and thus may be perceived as a revival of integration. |
| Keywords: | Arab Spring; Arab stock markets; financial integration. |
| JEL: | G1 G10 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70942 |
| By: | Cho, Seungyeon; Ishdorj, Ariun; Gregory, Christian |
| Abstract: | One of the factors that affect food security status of the household is the presence of the disabled individual in the household. Existing studies show that types of disability of adults in the household are associated with food insecurity. Using data from 2011-2014 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), we found that severity of vision, physical, and mental disability as well as the multiplicity of the household head’s disability have a significant effect on food insecurity. |
| Keywords: | Food insecurity, Disability, NHIS, Food Security and Poverty, Health Economics and Policy, I31, I32, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230083 |
| By: | Kummer, Michael E.; Schulte, Patrick |
| Abstract: | We shed light on a money-for-privacy trade-off in the market for smartphone applications ("apps"). Developers offer their apps cheaper in return for greater access to personal information, and consumers choose between lower prices and more privacy. We provide evidence for this pattern using data on 300,000 mobile applications which were obtained from the Android Market in 2012 and 2014. We augmented these data with information from Alexa.com and Amazon Mechanical Turk. Our findings show that both the market's supply and the demand side consider an app's ability to collect private information, measured by their use of privacy-sensitive permissions: (1) cheaper apps use more privacy-sensitive permissions; (2) installation numbers are lower for apps with sensitive permissions; (3) circumstantial factors, such as the reputation of app developers, mitigate the strength of this relationship. Our results emerge consistently across several robustness checks, including the use of panel data analysis, the use of selected matched "twin"-pairs of apps and the use of various alternative measures of privacy-sensitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Privacy,Mobile Applications,Android,Permissions,Supply and Demand of Private Information |
| JEL: | D12 D22 L15 L86 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16031 |
| By: | Peña, Humberto |
| Abstract: | El estudio procede a identificar los desafíos que debe enfrentar la gestión del agua en la región para alcanzar una adecuada seguridad hídrica. Dichos desafíos se relacionan con los acelerados cambios sociales, económicos y políticos que experimentan las sociedades de América Latina y el Caribe. |
| Keywords: | RECURSOS HIDRICOS, AGUA, ABASTECIMIENTO DE AGUA, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, ASPECTOS AMBIENTALES, CAMBIO CLIMATICO, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS, CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER RESOURCES, WATER, WATER SUPPLY |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col042:40074 |
| By: | Pierre, Erwan; Villeneuve, Stéphane; Warin, Xavier |
| Abstract: | We consider a singular control problem with regime switching that arises in problems of optimal investment decisions of cash-constrained firms. The value function is proved to be the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Moreover, we give regularity properties of the value function as well as a description of the shape of the control regions. Based on these theoretical results, a numerical deterministic approximation of the related HJB variational inequality is provided. We finally show that this numerical approximation converges to the value function. This allows us to describe the investment and dividend optimal policies. |
| Keywords: | Investment, dividend policy, singular control, viscosity solution, nonlinear PDE |
| JEL: | C61 C62 G35 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30394 |
| By: | Pierre, Erwan; Villeneuve, Stéphane; Warin, Xavier |
| Abstract: | We consider a singular control problem with regime switching that arises in problems of optimal investment decisions of cash-constrained firms. The value function is proved to be the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Moreover, we give regularity properties of the value function as well as a description of the shape of the control regions. Based on these theoretical results, a numerical deterministic approximation of the related HJB variational inequality is provided. We finally show that this numerical approximation converges to the value function. This allows us to describe the investment and dividend optimal policies. |
| Keywords: | Investment, dividend policy, singular control, viscosity solution, nonlinear PDE |
| JEL: | C61 C62 G35 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:30396 |
| By: | Luca Marcolin; Sébastien Miroudot; Mariagrazia Squicciarini |
| Abstract: | This work proposes a novel measure of the routine content of occupations, called the Routine Intensity Indicator (RII), built on data from the OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) survey. The RII uses information about the extent to which workers can modify the sequence of their tasks and decide the type of tasks to be performed on the job. Based on median RII values of individuals in 3-digit occupations across 20 OECD countries, jobs are grouped into quartiles of routine-intensity. On average, in 2012, 46% of employed persons worked in non-routine (18%) or low (28%) routine intensive occupations, with the distribution differing significantly across countries. The relationship between the routine content of occupations and the skills of the workforce is also investigated. While a negative correlation does emerge between skill content and routine intensity – i.e. more routine-intensive occupations tend to be associated with lower skills – this relationship is not necessarily very strong. |
| Keywords: | routine task, occupations, Skill |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2016–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:188-en |
| By: | Bai, Junfei; Liu, Haiyan; Wahl, Thomas; Seale, James L. Jr.; Zhang, Caiping |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Ontario’s Greenbelt legislation, a land use policy that permanently protects over 1.8 million acres of land from non-agricultural development, on farmers’ exit and investment decisions. A farm-level panel data set for 32,512 farms in Ontario is used to perform two econometric estimations: a correlated random effects Probit model of farm exit and a dynamic unobserved effects Tobit model of farm investment. The Greenbelt policy is found to have influenced both farm exit and farm investment decisions, with the impact varying depending on location within the Greenbelt. In particular, the results indicate evidence of a negative impact on farm investment, which is contrary to one of the objectives of the Greenbelt policy. |
| Keywords: | Household composition, Income, Food-away-from-home, Demographics, Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212050 |
| By: | Perova, Daria |
| Abstract: | An article about the basic principles working exchange of cryptocurrencies of BTC-E. The author considers the distinctive features of work users at the BTC-E exchange allowing to buy and sell digital currencies. Possibilities of development and introduction of cryptocurrencies in the Russian economy are analyzed. Статья об основных принципах работы биржи криптовалют BTC-E. Автор рассматривает отличительные особенности работы пользователей на бирже BTC-E, позволяющие покупать и продавать цифровые валюты. Анализируются возможности развития и внедрения криптовалют в российскую экономику. |
| Keywords: | BTC-E exchange, digital currency, cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, electronic commerce,BTC-E биржа, цифровая валюта, криптовалюта, биткоинт, электронная коммерция. |
| JEL: | G18 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70982 |
| By: | Victor V. Gorbatov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In recent critical comments on “On Denoting”, Saul Kripke says that Russell's famous analysis of joke about yachts in terms of degrees and graded positives is incorrect. His criticism has given rise to a number of issues related to interpreting cross-world comparisons like “Õ might have been greater than it is” in doxastic contexts like “John believes that P”. The main goal of this paper is to compare two approaches to cross-world predication in intensional contexts. One is Wehmeier’s subjunctive modal framework which distinctive feature is the use of two explicit mood markers. The other is Chalmers’s generalized epistemic two-dimensionalism, based on the idea of assigning all our expressions two kinds of intensions. Despite the fact that these approaches have of lot in common, they provide different interpretations of belief reports about cross-world comparisons. I argue that epistemic 2D framework is philosophically more relevant here than subjunctive markers approach. |
| Keywords: | cross-world predication, cross-world quantification, quanti?ed modal logic, two-dimensional semantics, possible worlds, subjunctivity, comparatives, belief reports |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:131/hum/2016 |
| By: | David Boisclair; Yann Décarie; François Laliberté-Auger; Pierre-Carl Michaud |
| Abstract: | Les maladies cardiovasculaires (MCV), y compris l’hypertension et les accidents vasculaires cérébraux, comptent pour une part importante de la mortalité et des coûts directs de santé au Québec. Dans cette étude, nous utilisons un modèle de microsimulation afin de projeter jusqu’en 2050 les dépenses publiques en hospitalisations et en consultations médicales selon divers scénarios d’évolution de la présence des MCV. Un scénario plausible de baisse immédiate de 30% de l’incidence des MCV grâce à la prévention génère des économies cumulées de 21 milliards de dollars en valeur présente. À cela s’ajoute une valeur économique de 66 milliards de dollars de 2012 pour les années de vie sauvées au cours de la période. |
| Keywords: | Dépenses de santé, projections, vieillissement, maladies cardiovasculaires, Québec |
| JEL: | C53 H51 I18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:criacr:1601 |
| By: | Hans Pitlik (WIFO); Martin Rode |
| Abstract: | Ever since Max Weber (1930) uncovered the cultural origins of capitalism, a common denominator for explanations of economic development is that "individualistic values" provide a more favourable background for promoting the wealth of nations. This paper investigates the impact of individualist values on personal attitudes towards government intervention, as a potential link of culture and formal institutions. We consider two key components of an "individualistic culture" to be particularly relevant for attitude formation, namely values related to self-direction and self-determination. Results indicate that both elements of individualistic values are associated negatively with interventionist preferences. Interestingly, effects of self-direction values on intervention attitudes are much weaker though, than the effects of a strong belief in self-determination. Moreover, the effects of self-direction on intervention preferences are mitigated through higher trust in state actors and lower confidence in major companies, while that does not appear to be the case for self-determination values. |
| Keywords: | individualism, self-direction, self-determination, government intervention, institutional trust, preference formation |
| Date: | 2016–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2016:i:515 |
| By: | Zaffou, Madiha; Campbell, Benjamin; Rabinowitz, Adam |
| Abstract: | The special supplemental nutrition program for women, infants, and children program (WIC) allows its participants to purchase food items from a WIC approved list at retail grocery stores. However, this program restricts not only the type and the quantity of food to be purchased but also the specific food brand. In fact, participants are often required to purchase private label brands –the least expensive brand- for some of the food products. Using Nileson home-scan data on daily food purchases across the county, this study aims to evaluate how these food brand restrictions may impact consumer brand preference even outside of the WIC program. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230100 |
| By: | Enrique López-Bazo (AQR Research Group-IREA, University of Barcelona); Elisabet Motellón (AQR Research Group-IREA, University of Barcelona. Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of regional determinants on innovation performance controlling by the firm’s absorptive capacity and other sources of firm heterogeneity. The findings for a sample of firms in Spain support the hypothesis that regional determinants matter, though their role is subtler than the one frequently assumed. Rather than a direct influence on firm’s innovation, the regional context moderates the effect of internal determinants. In the case of product innovation the most important mechanism of interaction seems to be operating through cooperation in innovation, whereas for process innovation it seems to be through highly skilled labour. |
| Keywords: | product innovation, process innovation, firm, multilevel modelling, Spanish regions JEL classification: D21; O31; R10; R15 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:201607 |
| By: | Aleksander Kucel (Universitat de Barcelona); Montserrat Vilalta-Bufí (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Promotion of entrepreneurial skills among the population is often considered as an adequate policy to enhance job creation and economic growth. However, neither the definition of entrepreneurial skills, nor the costs and benefits of such a policy are clear. Our aim is to check whether the benefits of entrepreneurial skills extent beyond self-employment. We use a sample of higher education graduates from Spain, from the year 2000 interviewed in 2005 (REFLEX survey). We denote entrepreneurial skills as those competencies that enhance the likelihood of self-employment. Then we analyze whether they are rewarded in wage employment. We find that alertness to new opportunities, ability to mobilize others and knowledge of other fields are the competencies that enhance self-employment in Spain. Yet, these skills are not rewarded in a salaried job. Therefore, benefits of policies fostering entrepreneurial skills do not extend to wage employment in Spain. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurial skills, wage returns, wage employment, self-employment, competencies |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J43 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:336web |
| By: | Beck, Günter Wilfried; Kotz, Hans-Helmut; Zabelina, Natalia |
| Abstract: | Non-bank (-balance sheet) based financial intermediation has become considerably more important over the last couple of decades. For the U.S., this trend has been discussed ever since the mid-1990s. As a consequence, traditional monetary transmission mechanisms, mainly operating through bank balance sheets, have apparently become less relevant. This in particular applies to the bank lending channel. Concurrently, recent theoretical and empirical work uncovered a "risk-taking channel" of monetary policy. This mechanism is not confined to traditional banks but has been found to operate also across the spectrum of financial intermediaries and intermediation devices, including securitization and collateralized lending/borrowing. In addition, recent empirical evidence suggests that the increasing importance of shadow-banking activities might have given rise to a so-called "waterbed effect". This is a mediating mechanisms, dampening or counteracting typically to be expected reactions to monetary policy impulses. Employing flow-of-funds data, we can document also for the Euro Area that a trend towards non-bank (not necessarily more 'market'-based) intermediation has occurred. This is, however, a fairly recent development, substantially weaker than in the U.S. Nonetheless, analyzing the response of Euro Area bank and nonbank financial intermediaries to monetary policy impulses, we find some notable behavioral differences between mainly deposit-funded and more 'market'-based financial intermediaries. We also detect, inter alia, the existence of a (still) fairly weak, but potentially policyrelevant, "waterbed" effect. |
| Keywords: | non-bank financial intermediation,interest-rate channel,credit channel,risk-taking channel of monetary policy,market-based financial intermediation,monetary transmission mechanism,waterbed effect |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:36 |
| By: | Gong Cheng (The European Stability Mechanism) |
| Abstract: | Since the Global Financial Crisis, the Group of Twenty (G20) has not only become the premier forum for policy coordination among major economies but has also played an important role in promoting reforms to safeguard global financial stability. This paper focuses on the commitments the G20 has made to strengthen the Global Financial Safety Net since its first Leaders' Summit in Washington, D.C. in 2008. This paper first compares reform proposals that the G20 achieved and those it did not during the subsequent six years, or by the 2014 Summit in Australia. The paper finds that reforms aimed at enhancing financial resources and renewing instruments for emergency liquidity provision were substantially implemented. However, institutional reforms concerning the governing structure of International Financial Institutions were delayed. The paper then analyses, from a political economy perspective, why the G20 delivered on the first set of reforms, but not on the second. The urgency of responding to the crisis, the role of particular countries as well as institutional features of the G20 framework determine the political interests in this reform area. |
| Keywords: | Global Financial Safety Net, G20, International Monetary Fund, Regional Financial Arrangements |
| JEL: | F33 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stm:wpaper:13 |
| By: | Luis Miguel Rodrigo (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte) |
| Abstract: | Este trabajo estudia la estructuración de la subjetividad política en la región de Antofagasta, situada en el norte de Chile, en un contexto socioeconómico prototípicamente neoliberal. A partir de una muestra de treinta relatos de vida sometidos a un análisis sociológico del discurso, se construye un conjunto de tipologías que son denominadas habitus políticos. En el análisis, se identifican cuatro experiencias vitales fundamentales en la estructuración de estos habitus políticos: el posicionamiento familiar en el conflicto histórico (golpe de Estado y dictadura miliar), la clase social, la trayectoria social y la trayectoria espacial. Se concluye que la relación con el orden social es prediscursiva, por lo que resulta necesario sumar el análisis biográfico de las disposiciones políticas (estructuras individuales de subjetividad política) al análisis de los discursos políticos (estructuras sociales de subjetividad política). |
| Keywords: | Bourdieu; sociología política; neoliberalismo; análisis sociológico del discurso; relatos de vida |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201602 |
| By: | Wujiang Lou |
| Abstract: | The presence of hedging errors is practically a norm of derivatives businesses. Using the unhedgeable gap risk during a margin period of risk as a starting point, this article introduces a reserve capital approach to the hedging error and its inclusion in derivatives pricing and valuation. Specifically, we define economic capital associated with the gap risk hedging error and build the cost of capital into the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing framework. An extended partial differential equation is derived, showing terms for expected gap loss and economic capital charge, corresponding to capital valuation adjustment--KVA. For a repurchase agreement, economic capital is computed under a double-exponential jump-diffusion model, either estimated from historical data or calibrated to options smile. We find that the expected loss of a repo is very small and that cost of economic capital is the dominant component of the repo pricing spread. A repo therefore constitutes an ideal case to study economic capital and its valuation impact. The approach taken can be extended into margined OTC derivatives and more generally derivatives in incomplete markets. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.05406 |
| By: | Bubonya, Melisa (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research); Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney); Wooden, Mark (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research) |
| Abstract: | Much of the economic cost of mental illness stems from workers' reduced productivity. We analyze the links between mental health and two alternative workplace productivity measures – absenteeism and presenteeism (i.e., lower productivity while attending work) – explicitly allowing these relationships to be moderated by the nature of the job itself. We find that absence rates are approximately five percent higher among workers who report being in poor mental health. Moreover, job conditions are related to both presenteeism and absenteeism even after accounting for workers' self-reported mental health status. Job conditions are relatively more important in understanding diminished productivity at work if workers are in good rather than poor mental health. The effects of job complexity and stress on absenteeism do not depend on workers' mental health, while job security and control moderate the effect of mental illness on absence days. |
| Keywords: | mental health, presenteeism, absenteeism, work productivity |
| JEL: | I12 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9879 |
| By: | Chris Hope (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge); Jimena Alvarez (Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge); Paul Gilding (Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership, University of Cambridge) |
| Abstract: | Fossil fuel companies sell the products that cause the vast majority of anthropogenic climate change. These companies don't pay for the economic damage these products cause to society. The IMF calculated that in 2011 this implicit subsidy amounted to about $800 billion globally. This implicit subsidy represents a risk to individual companies because as society seeks to reduce or recover the economic costs fossil fuels create, company profits could be lost and assets stranded by the resulting shift to low carbon energy. As a result attempts are being made to identify companies most at risk. However, no company-level model exists to compare present-day implicit subsidies and therefore risk level. Here we calculate these subsidies, by company, for the years 2008 to 2012. For all companies the implicit subsidy exceeded their post-tax profit (averaged over five years). For all pure coal companies, the implicit subsidy exceeded total revenues. There is substantial variation between companies within the same fuel type. We anticipate that these results will be a useful starting point for investors seeking to manage their exposure to climate change risk, and for policy makers interested in fossil fuel companies' net contribution to society. |
| Keywords: | fossil fuel, climate change, carbon tax |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jbs:wpaper:201502 |
| By: | Ogundeji, Abiodun; Jordaan, Henry; Groenewald, Jan |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to develop an integrated model that can simulate the impact of climate change on farm structure and adaptation thereof. The future sustainability of the agricultural sector relies on the type of adaptation strategy put in place for farmers to cope with the projected impacts of climate change. The Ceres Dynamic Integrated Model (CDIM) was developed to evaluate different adaptation strategies, results show that it is unlikely that high water tariffs will reduce the level of water used for production. Depending on the availability of funds to make farm dams available for farmers, access to farm dam capacity and winter water allocations as well as increasing water use efficiency are potential adaptation options for the farmers. Improved water management practices that increase the productivity of irrigation water use may provide a significant adaptation potential under future climate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Agricultural Sector, Integrated model, Adaptation, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212591 |
| By: | David de la Croix (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Matthias Doepke (Department of Economics, Northwestern University); Joel Mokyr (Department of Economics, Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | In the centuries leading up to the Industrial Revolution, Western Europe gradually pulled ahead of other world regions in terms of technological creativity, population growth, and income per capita. We argue that superior institutions for the creation and dissemination of productive knowledge help explain the European advantage. We build a model of technological progress in a pre-industrial economy that emphasizes the person-to-person transmission of tacit knowledge. The young learn as apprentices from the old. Institutions such as the family, the clan, the guild, and the market organize who learns from whom. We argue that medieval European institutions such as guilds, and specific features such as journeymanship, can explain the rise of Europe relative to regions that relied on the transmission of knowledge within extended families or clans. |
| Date: | 2016–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016009 |
| By: | Roger Martins; Dieter Hendricks |
| Abstract: | Hawkes processes have seen a number of applications in finance, due to their ability to capture event clustering behaviour typically observed in financial systems. Given a calibrated Hawkes process, of concern is the statistical fit to empirical data, particularly for the accurate quantification of self- and mutual-excitation effects. We investigate the application of a multivariate Hawkes process with a sum-of-exponentials kernel and piecewise-linear exogeneity factors, fitted to liquidity demand and replenishment events extracted from limit order book data. We consider one-, two- and three-exponential kernels, applying various tests to ascertain goodness-of-fit and stationarity of residuals, as well as stability of the calibration procedure. In line with prior research, it is found that performance across all tests improves as the number of exponentials is increased, with a sum-of-three-exponentials yielding the best fit to the given set of coupled point processes. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.01824 |
| By: | Zura Kakushadze; Willie Yu |
| Abstract: | We present a novel method for extracting cancer signatures by applying statistical risk models (http://ssrn.com/abstract=2732453) from quantitative finance to cancer genome data. Using 1389 whole genome sequenced samples from 14 cancers, we identify an "overall" mode of somatic mutational noise. We give a prescription for factoring out this noise and source code for fixing the number of signatures. We apply nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) to genome data aggregated by cancer subtype and filtered using our method. The resultant signatures have substantially lower variability than those from unfiltered data. Also, the computational cost of signature extraction is cut by about a factor of 10. We find 3 novel cancer signatures, including a liver cancer dominant signature (96% contribution) and a renal cell carcinoma signature (70% contribution). Our method accelerates finding new cancer signatures and improves their overall stability. Reciprocally, the methods for extracting cancer signatures could have interesting applications in quantitative finance. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.08743 |
| By: | Schaak, Henning |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a gravity model to analyse the impact of the ASEAN-China-FTA on the international trade of dairy products. It uses a multinomial PML estimator with country fixed effects and a suitable framework to differentiate between trade creation and trade diversion effects in terms of imports and exports. The used dataset contains disaggregated data for 36 countries, including the ASEAN member countries, China and the 25 largest dairy exporting countries from 1995 until 2013. The dataset contains data on the three SITC dairy product groups as well as their aggregate. The estimates of the model include significant values for all framework effects. They indicate that there are trade creation, import diversion and export diversion effects for all four commodity groups. The estimated overall net trade effect is negative. Hence the current implementation of the FTA should be critically evaluated with respect to dairy products. |
| Keywords: | Gravity Model, Agricultural Trade, ACFTA, Trade creation and trade diversion effects, Dairy products, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi15:211619 |
| By: | Jaime Alcaide Arranz (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid); Simón Sosvilla-Rivero (Department of Quantitative Economics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | En las últimas décadas ha tenido lugarun importante desarrollo de la banca islámica y de las finanzas islámicas en general. En países como Malasia, Arabia Saudí o Bangladesh ésta ha experimentado una expansión significativa frente a la banca convencional. En Indonesia, el país con la mayor población musulmana del mundo, el desarrollo de la banca islámica está siendo más tardío. El análisis de su nacimiento e impulso pone de manifiesto las ventajas y desafíos del sector. Su peso es aún relativamente reducido pero el avance del sector financiero islámico, con un mayor impulso del mercado de capitales islámico siguiendo el ejemplo de Malasia, podría ser un factor positivo para una mejor canalización del ahorro hacia la inversión productiva en el país. En cualquier caso es conveniente que se produzcan mejoras en términos de eficiencia en el sector bancario en general y en la banca islámica en particular. |
| Keywords: | Banca islámica, Finanzas islámicas, Sector financiero, Indonesia |
| JEL: | N25 D52 E58 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aee:wpaper:1607 |
| By: | Vestal, Michael; Tewari, Rachna; Darroch, Barbara; Mehlhorn, Joey |
| Abstract: | This study was designed to determine if a relationship existed between corn (Zea mays) and soybean (Glycine max) yields and climate factors in West Tennessee from 1955 to 2013. Yield data was obtained from National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) annual crop surveys for the twenty one counties in United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) West Tennessee and Delta Districts. Climate data for was obtained from National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Only climate data from April through October was used in calculations to more accurately reflect corn and soybean growing seasons. Correlations, linear regressions, and multiple regressions were developed to compare crop yields with climate factors for the year as well as three phases of the crop production process (planting, growing, and harvesting). Significant relationships were found to exist between corn yield and minimum temperature (r = 0.32; P = .01), precipitation (r = 0.29; P = .26), Palmer Z-Index (r = 0.26; P = .47), and one month Standardized Precipitation Index (r = 0.26; P = .049). Significant relationships were found between soybean yield and maximum temperature (r = -0.32; P = .01), precipitation (r = 0.43; P < 0.001), Palmer Drought Severity Index (r = 0.28; P = .03), Palmer Z-Index (r = 0.43; P < .001), and one month Standardized Precipitation Index (r = 0.46; P < .001). The study found that yields were dependent on multiple climatic factors due to the abundance of significant multiple regression models compared to linear regression models. However, West Tennessee corn and soybean yields were not statistically influenced by average temperature or climate factors during the planting stage of production. Overall, growing season temperature and precipitation factors were important and will continue to impact corn and soybean yields in West Tennessee. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230009 |
| By: | Gomber, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper describes cash equity markets in Germany and their evolution against the background of technological and regulatory transformation. The development of these secondary markets in the largest economy in Europe is first briefly outlined from a historical perspective. This serves as the basis for the description of the most important trading system for German equities, the Xetra trading system of Deutsche Börse AG. Then, the most important regulatory change for European and German equity markets in the last ten years is illustrated: the introduction of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) in 2007. Its implications on equity trading in Germany are analyzed against the background of the current status of competition in Europe. Recent developments in European equity markets like the emergence of dark pools and algorithmic / high frequency trading are portrayed, before an outlook on new regulations (MiFID II, MiFIR) that will likely come into force in early 2018 will close the paper. |
| Keywords: | MiFID II,MiFIR,equity trading,electronic trading,cash equity markets |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:34 |
| By: | Yu, Wusheng; Bandara, Jayatilleke S |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the fiscal and welfare costs of India’s food policy during the 2007-08 global food crisis. India’s domestic grain price stabilization through consumer and producer subsidies and export restrictions is shown to have caused huge fiscal costs and equally large welfare costs, an outcome that is almost always the worst as compared to alternative policy mixes examined. While the most efficient and cost-effective alternatives may not be feasible due to political economy considerations, we argue that there exist some feasible and superior “middle-ground” policy mixes featuring partial relaxations of domestic subsidizations and/or less restrictive border policies. |
| Keywords: | India, food security policy, trade policy, agriculture subsidy, computable general equilibrium, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211863 |
| By: | Rafael Hortala-Vallve; Hannes Mueller |
| Abstract: | We present a formal model of intra-party politics to explain candidate selection within political parties. We think of parties as heterogeneous groups of individuals who aim to implement a set of policies but who differ in their priorities. When party heterogeneity is too great, parties are in danger of splitting into smaller yet more homogeneous political groups. In this context we argue that primaries can have a unifying role if the party elite cannot commit to policy concessions. Our model shows how three factors interact to create incentives for the adoption of primary elections, namely (1) the alignment in the preferred policies of various factions within a party, (2) the relative weight of each of these factions and (3) the electoral system. We discuss the existing empirical literature and demonstrate how existing studies can be improved in light of our theoretical predictions to provide a new, structured perspective on the adoption of primary elections. |
| Keywords: | political parties; primaries; candidate selection |
| JEL: | D71 D72 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:62019 |
| By: | Luigi Mittone; Andrew Musau |
| Abstract: | One shot two-player sequential game experiments are characterized by an asymmetry in the observed payoffs of participants. In the ultimatum game, for example, the distribution favors first-movers, whereas in the in- vestment game, it favors second movers. A comparison to sequential move games are symmetric simultaneous move games, which entail symmetry in actions and payoffs. We experimentally examine the role of first-mover anticipated communication on the inter-player strategic power dynamics that exist in a symmetric simultaneous move prisoners’ dilemma, and a sequential move investment game, and show that such communication has a significant effect in inducing payoff asymmetries in symmetric games. |
| Keywords: | strategic power, communication, prisoners’ dilemma, investment game, experiment |
| JEL: | C72 C91 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpce:1603 |
| By: | Stark, C. Robert Jr; Lorenz, Gus; Faske, Travis; Spurlock, Terry; Seiter, Nick; Studebaker, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Arkansas soybean producers spend significant amounts of money on annual input costs. 2015 UA Division of Agriculture crop enterprise budgets estimated irrigated soybean average operating expenses at $328.75 per acre across Roundup Ready, Liberty Link, and conventional systems. Commodity market price declines, such as have been seen in late 2015, increase the importance of input cost evaluations to maintain profitable returns. This study compares “automatic applications” made on crop phenology versus “treating as needed” systems where applications are made based on scouting for insect and disease thresholds. Seven large block trial locations were initiated in 2015 with five treatments utilizing insecticides, fungicides, combinations of products, and application system approaches. Partial budgeting methodology is employed to estimate economic outcome under each system. Cost, yield, and profitability measures are calculated for each treatment. The agronomic and economic research results will be used to evaluate overall profitability of current state extension recommendations including treatment threshold levels. |
| Keywords: | soybean, partial budget, threshold, treated-as-needed, automatic application, Farm Management, Q10, D24, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230096 |
| By: | Bargain, Olivier; Cardebat, Jean-Marie; Vignolles, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | Crowdfunding has recently emerged as a novel way of financing new ventures. This coincides with a growing interest in wine as an investment good and with a search for new funding opportunities by wine makers. In this study, we first suggest a brief review of the literature on wine and finance as well as on how crowdfunding is entering the wine sector. In particular, we question who are the potential investors willing to engage in wine crowdfunded projects, and what kind of revenue could attract them. To go further, we also exploit an original survey where interviewees are asked about their wine consumption and purchase, their knowledge about crowdfunding, their relation to the Internet, their investment and project related to wine crowdfunding and their expectations concerning the returns from this type of contribution. We suggest that, among all forms of crowdfunding, the donation/voluntary contribution side, driven by intrinsic motivation, is likely to remain marginal compared to crowdfunding as an investment or a form of early purchase - a retail form of the “en primeur” sales. More generally, we ask how the public can help finance this sector and diversify the way wine is sold. |
| Keywords: | crowdfunding, wine sector, alternative assets, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, G11, G12, L17, G21, L26, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aawewp:234638 |
| By: | Maddalena Cavicchioli; Barbara Pistoresi |
| Abstract: | This paper uses historical data since mid-19th century to test the validity of Wagner's Law for the Italian economy. Unlike the previous studies, we accommodate possible nonlinear asymmetric effects of total gov- erment spending and GDP toward their long-run equilibrium. Our results show the presence of a threshold cointegrating relationship between the two variables with significantly different error correction adjustments in normal and extreme regimes. Particularly, we find the validity of Wagner's Law from 1862 to 2009, only when we take into account strong nonlinear responses of government spending during the WWI and WWII period. Robustness checks clearly recognize nonlinear behaviour of government expenditure driven by military spending. |
| Keywords: | Time series; Nonlinearity; Threshold Cointegration; Threshold Vector Error Correction; Public spending; Economic growth; Wagner's Law. |
| JEL: | C01 C34 H1 H5 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:116 |
| By: | Kopp, Thomas; Brummer, Bernhard |
| Abstract: | While traders of agricultural products are known to often exercise market power, this power has rarely been quantified for developing countries. In order to derive a measure, we estimate the traders' revenue functions and calculate the Marginal Value Products directly from them. We subsequently find determinants affecting their individual market power. An exceptional data set with detailed information on the business practices of rubber traders in Jambi, Indonesia is employed. Results show that market power at the traders' level exists and is substantial. This market power is amplified in situations of extreme remoteness, and weakens with increasing market size. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212012 |
| By: | Francisco Eduardo de Luna e Almeida Santos; Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia; Marcelo Cunha Medeiros |
| Abstract: | Neste estudo, a relação entre fundamentos macroeconômicos e preço de ativos é analisada por meio da estimação do impacto de anúncios macroeconômicos no mercado futuro brasileiro. Usando-se dados em alta frequência entre outubro de 2008 e janeiro de 2011, os resultados apontam para a dominância de eventos externos nos mercados futuros de câmbio e ações, enquanto que o impacto no mercado futuro de juros é restrito a eventos domésticos. As evidências apontam também que o impacto é condicional ao estado da economia. In this paper, the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and asset prices is explored by estimating the impact of macroeconomic announcements in the Brazilian futures market. Using intraday data from October 2008 to January 2011, results show that external macroeconomic announcements dominate price changes in the Foreign Exchange and Ibovespa futures markets, while the impact of the domestic ones is mainly restricted to Interest Rate futures contracts. There is also evidence that price reactions are conditional on the state of the economy. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2184 |
| By: | Weber, Regine |
| Abstract: | India has been experiencing rising food prices during the last five years. In this paper we explore how inflationary food prices impact India’s consumer welfare and poverty ratios, by calculating the compensating variation as a welfare measure. We account for changes in consumption patterns, i.e. substitution effects among food items, by including own and cross price elasticities obtained through the estimation of a demand system, i.e. QUAIDS. Our results show that consumers substitute high value commodities, e.g. milk, livestock products and fruits in case of rising prices. Moreover, a 10 per cent price increase on average causes a welfare loss of 5 to 6 per cent of monthly income in rural areas and 3 to 4 per cent welfare loss in urban areas. As a result, there is a drop below the poverty line of an additional 4.69 per cent and 2.19 per cent of households in rural and urban regions respectively. |
| Keywords: | QUAIDS, compensating variation, welfare impacts, poverty dynamics., Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, I32, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211901 |
| By: | Matthew Chambers (Department of Economics, Towson University); Carlos Garriga (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Don E. Schlagenhauf (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | The post-WorldWar II witnessed the largest housing boom in recent history. The objective of this paper is to develop a quantitative equilibrium model of tenure choice to analyze the key determinants in the co-movement between home ownership and house prices over the period 1940 to 1960. The parameterized model is consistent with key aggregate and distributional features observed in the 1940 U.S. economy and is capable of accounting for the observed postwar housing boom. The paper shows, both theoretically and quantitatively, that the key to explaining the co- movement is an asymmetric productivity change that favors the goods sector relative to the construction sector. Other factors such as demographics, income risk, and government policy are important determinants of the home ownership rate but have relatively small e¤ects on housing prices. |
| Keywords: | Housing Finance, first-time buyers, life-cycle. |
| JEL: | E2 E6 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-07 |
| By: | Barreiro-Hurle, Jesus; Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio; Jansson, Torbjoern; Fellman, Thomas; Weiss, Franz |
| Abstract: | The effectiveness of unilateral greenhouse gas mitigation efforts has been put in doubt due to the so called carbon leakage effect both for industrial and agricultural sectors. In such scenario production shifts to world regions with no carbon constraint and the region which has imposed the carbon constraint substitutes its former domestic production by imports of these now relatively cheaper products, reducing economic activity but not changing consumption bundles. In this paper we investigate how technology can dampen this effect. For this we use the CAPRI partial equilibrium model of the EU agriculture together with its global spatial multi-commodity model calculating endogenously GHG emission coefficients for nitrous oxide and methane following the IPCC guidelines. For the rest of the world we use emission intensities calculated for the past based on emission and production data. Technology is modelled considering trend functions for the emission intensities in the rest of the world which are continued into the future. Our results show that while leakage exists and is increasing with the stringency of the GHG mitigation target of the EU, it can be mostly offset by allowing the ROW to adopt better technologies. To maximize its impact on reducing carbon leakage, technology transfer should focus on meat commodities and the Asia and Central and South American regions. |
| Keywords: | climate change, agriculture, carbon leakage, CAPRI Model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235079 |
| By: | Kim, Minseong |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the Extended Ricardian Equivalence Theorem for helicopter money. It is shown that helicopter money, or money printing, to finance fiscal spending is inconsistent with existence of an equilibrium under ordinary assumptions used to derive the Ricardian Equivalence theorem. By relaxing some equality constraints into inequality constraints or by an open economy assumption, one may be able to save helicopter money from not being a part of an equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | helicopter money; money printing; seigniorage; fiscal policy; fiscal deficit; budget constraint |
| JEL: | E13 E61 E62 |
| Date: | 2016–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71067 |
| By: | Grote, Ulrike; Neubacher, Frank |
| Abstract: | Anecdotal evidence and selected information from the International Crime Victims Survey suggest that crime is higher in developing countries than in developed countries and that there are regionally big differences. Explanations and solutions to the persistence and prevalence of rural crime in many developing countries are needed as rural crime undermines sustainable development to a large extent and may even affect social cohesiveness in rural communities. This discussion paper therefore calls for research which helps to shed light on this phenomenon in support of improved policies. For this, representative and good-quality data is needed. It is suggested to disentangle the complex research topic and allow for a more systematic approach by focusing on a certain type of crime. Research on most of these types is very selective and scarce. As mentioned, data is almost nonexistent and evidence on individual types is largely missing. The routine activity approach is suggested as a conceptual framework for further analysis. The paper concludes that research and policy design should focus on how to reduce opportunities to commit a crime in rural areas in developing countries in order to reduce environmental and social costs of crime, promote sustainable development and improve rural livelihoods of the often deprived and poor in rural areas in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Rural crime, developing countries, victimization, routine activity approach, sustainable development, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, K14, Q01, Q12, Q5, R11, |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubonwp:233668 |
| By: | Saglam, Ismail |
| Abstract: | Baron and Myerson (BM) (1982)propose an incentive-compatible, individually rational and ex-ante socially optimal direct-revelation mechanism to regulate a monopolistic firm with unknown costs. We show that their mechanism is not ex-post Pareto dominated by any other feasible direct-revelation mechanism. However, there also exist an uncountable number of feasible direct-revelation mechanisms that are not ex-post Pareto dominated by the BM mechanism. To investigate whether the BM mechanism remains in the set of ex-post undominated mechanisms when the Pareto axiom is slightly weakened, we introduce the epsilon-Pareto dominance. This concept requires the relevant dominance relationships to hold in the support of the regulator's beliefs everywhere but at a set of points of measure epsilon, which can be arbitrarily small. We show that a modification of the BM mechanism which always equates the price to the marginal cost can epsilon-Pareto dominate the BM mechanism at uncountably many regulatory environments, while it is never epsilon-Pareto dominated by the BM mechanism at any regulatory environment. |
| Keywords: | Monopoly; Regulation; Asymmetric Information; Pareto Efficiency |
| JEL: | D82 L51 |
| Date: | 2016–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71090 |
| By: | Raphael Anton Auer; Cédric Tille |
| Abstract: | The US financial crisis and the later eurozone crisis have substantially impacted capital flows into and out of financial centers like Switzerland. We focus on the pattern of capital flows involving the Swiss banking industry. We first rely on balance-of-payment statistics and show that net banking inflows rose during the acute phases of the crises, albeit with a contrasting pattern. In the wake of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, net inflows were driven by a substantial retrenchment into the domestic market by Swiss banks. By contrast, net inflows from mid-2011 to mid-2012 were driven by large flows into Switzerland by foreign banks. We then use more detailed data from Swiss banking statistics which allow us to differentiate the situation across different banks and currencies. We show that, during the US financial crisis, the bank flows cycle was driven strongly by exposures in US dollars, and to a large extent by Swiss-owned banks. During the eurozone crisis, by contrast, the flight to the Swiss franc and move away from the euro was also driven by banks that are located in Switzerland, yet are foreign-owned. In addition, while the demand for the Swiss franc was driven by both foreign and domestic customers from mid-2011 to early 2013, domestic demand took a prominent role thereafter. |
| Keywords: | capital flows, safe haven, Switzerland, financial globalization, international banking. |
| JEL: | E51 G15 G21 F21 F32 F36 F65 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2016-05 |
| By: | Muraoka, Rie; Matsumoto, Tomoya; Jin, Songqing; Otsuka, Keijiro |
| Abstract: | As population pressure on land grows rapidly in Kenya, rural farmers have started to intensify land use, which has lef to the emergence of a new maize farming system. The new system is characterized by the adoption of high-yielding maize varieties, the application of chemical fertilizer and manure produced by stall-fed improved dairy cows, and intercropping, especially the combination of maize and legumes. This study aims to explore the determinants of the new maize farming system and its impact on land productivity. We examine not only the impacts of new technologies and production practices but also the impact of the entire new maize farming system by generating an agricultural intensification index based on a principal component analysis. The estimation results show that a decrease in the land-labor ratio accelerates farming intensification, and that the adoption of each new technology and production practice has positive and significant impacts on land productivity. These findings are further supported by the significantly positive impacts of the agriculture intensification index on land productivity. |
| Keywords: | Farming system, agricultural intensification, population pressure, Maize, green revolution, Kenya, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212034 |
| By: | Silva, Felipe; Perrin, Richard K.; Fulginiti, Lilyan E. |
| Abstract: | Deforestation has been a topic of debate in climate change discussions due to its effect on CO2 emissions. The Amazon Forest, the biggest tropical forest in the world, is located along the north of Brazil. There, expansion of soy and corn production has pushed the production of livestock and other crops toward the Amazon forest, which involves a tradeoff between the area in forests versus these activities. We estimated the tradeoff between agriculture and forest for the 771 municipalities of the Amazon region by finding the production possibility frontier, using Data Envelopment Analysis. This tradeoff was estimated based on directional output distance functions. We found that, on average, 58% of observable total revenue from livestock, grains and timber production would be foregone to decrease deforestation in 2006 by 93%. We also estimated determinants of efficiency differences across states, which suggested that environmental efficiency was enhanced in municipalities with higher development indexes. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Q51, Q54, C61, |
| Date: | 2016–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230040 |
| By: | Jyoti Baijal |
| Abstract: | In the present study, memory and learning styles of secondary school students have been examined, so as to know how they co-relate with and influence examination stress in students. The objectives of the study are : (i) to study the relationship between examination stress and memory, (ii)to study the relationship between examination stress and learning-styles, (iii) to compare examination stress among students with high, moderate and low memory, (iv) to compare examination stress among students who adopt high and low reproducing/constructive learning styles. The sample for the present study consisted of 640 students studying in class XI of four U.P. Board schools and four C.B.S.E. Schools of Allahabad. 'Examination Stress Scale' of K.S. Misra was used to measure examination stress among secondary school students. 'Learning Styles Inventory' of K.S. Misra was used to identify the learning styles preferred by secondary school students. A Test on Memory constructed by the researcher was used to assess short term memory. The test consists of items based on recall and information processing. The findings are : (i) there is negative relationship between examination stress and memory, (ii)(a) examination stress is positively related to reproducing learning-style, (ii)(b) no significant relationship exists between examination stress and constructive learning-style, (iii) students with high, moderate and low memory differ from one another in their experience of examination stress, (iv)(a) students adopting high, moderate and low reproducing learning-style differ from one another on examination stress, (iv)(b) students adopting high, moderate and low level of constructive learning-style do not differ from one another in their experience of examination stress. Key words: stress, memory, learning style |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2016-03-02 |
| By: | Asfaw, Solomon; Mortari, Andrea Piano; Arslan, Aslihan; Karfakis, Panagiotis; Lipper, Leslie |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effects of weather/climate shocks on household welfare using a nationally representative panel data from Uganda together with a set of novel climate variation indicators. Where the effect of climate/weather variability has a significantly negative effect on household welfare, we further test the hypotheses that policy-relevant mechanisms can be effective means of mitigating the negative welfare effects. In general we obtain very few significant results with respect to climate/weather shock variables which might point towards a consumption and income smoothing behavior by the households, whose welfare level is not affected by the weather shocks. With regards to the different shocks definition, the reference period used to define the shock does not matter since the coefficients and the signs do not change with the reference period. Different policy action variables have also heterogeneous impact across different outcome variables in terms of mitigating the negative impact of climate/weather shocks. |
| Keywords: | Climate shock, welfare, Uganda, Africa, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Q01, Q12, Q16, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229060 |
| By: | Gabriel Garber; Márcio Issao Nakane |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we draw attention to a type of price discrimination that seems to be widespread, but has gone unnoticed by the literature: one based on false mistakes and the heterogeneous cost of complaining. We focus on the hypothetical example case of a bank manager that charges an undue fee from a client’s balance, and setup a model of price discrimination. We also devise a test for the detection of such behavior in a setting where the authorities have less information about the clients than the bank manager |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:427 |
| By: | Yuri M. Dimitrov; Lubin G. Vulkov |
| Abstract: | We construct a three-point compact finite difference scheme on a non-uniform mesh for the time-fractional Black-Scholes equation. We show that for special graded meshes used in finance, the Tavella-Randall and the quadratic meshes the numerical solution has a fourth-order accuracy in space. Numerical experiments are discussed. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.05178 |
| By: | Velazco-Bedoya, Daniel M.; Juliao, Leticia; Siqueira, Tiago T.S. |
| Abstract: | The Brazilian agribusiness is an important activity to Brazilian economy. This sector represents 22.54 % of 2013 Brazilian GDP and is composed of different actors in each production agribusiness chains. This sector is growing year by year in terms of production thanks to technology adoption and production strategies. Environmental respect concerns (e.g. deforestation) are crucial to maintain sustainable growing of agricultural production. In 2012, the Brazilian Forest Act was update to deal with production and environmental preservation. Therefore, changes in institutional level affect agribusiness chain arrangements and actor’s behavior. The aim of the work is to explore the changes in the agribusiness chain support structures and trade-off mechanisms emerging after the Brazilian Forest Act implementation. In order to dress this question, we use an internet survey to investigate Brazilian agribusiness actors’ perceptions in different Federal States. The respondent reported mainly major changes in agribusiness identity support structures. They emphasize the emerging and needs of trade-off mechanisms in resources management and production proceedings to deal with Brazilian Forest Act. The sample also reported that the Brazilian New Forest Act leads to major changes at a farm level. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212766 |
| By: | David CASHIN; UNAYAMA Takashi |
| Abstract: | We test the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis (LCPIH) using Japan's 2014 value-added tax (VAT) rate increase as a natural experiment. The VAT rate increase represents an unanticipated and proportional reduction in lifetime resources for several reasons: few goods and services are exempt from the VAT; the tax rate increase was uncompensated; it was fully passed on to households in the form of higher prices; and the VAT increase was not anticipated prior to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's October 2013 announcement. Contrary to the excess smoothness literature, we find that consumption fell in proportion to the income shock upon announcement, implying that we cannot reject the LCPIH. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16052 |
| By: | Mario Forni; Alessandro Giovannelli; Marco Lippi; Stefano Soccorsi |
| Abstract: | The paper compares the pseudo real-time forecasting performance of three Dynamic Factor Models: (i) The standard principal-component model, Stock and Watson (2002a), (ii) The model based on generalized principal components, Forni et al. (2005), (iii) The model recently proposed in Forni et al. (2015) and Forni et al. (2016). We employ a large monthly dataset of macroeconomic and financial time series for the US economy, which includes the Great Moderation, the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery. Using a rolling window for estimation and prediction, we find that (iii) neatly outperforms (i) and (ii) in the Great Moderation period for both Industrial Production and Inflation, and for Inflation over the full sample. However, (iii) is outperformed by (i) and (ii) over the full sample for Industrial Production. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:120 |
| By: | Martínez Pizarro, Jorge; Orrego Rivera, Cristián |
| Abstract: | En este documento se describe, en primer lugar, la dinámica migratoria reciente de los países de América Latina y el Caribe, fundamentalmente sobre la base de información censal y con el recurso de otras fuentes de países de destino extrarregional. Se examinan los antecedentes generales de la migración de latinoamericanos y caribeños revisando especialmente los cambios de la migración intarrregional entre las rondas censales de 2000 y de 2010, con énfasis en unos países. Tradicionalmente la emigración desde la región ha sido el objeto privilegiado de estudios, debates y negociaciones, lo cual debiera compartirse con la migración intrarregional. El segundo capítulo aborda la problemática y conceptualización de la niñez migrante, incluyendo elementos relativos a niñez migrante no acompañada, haciendo mención especial a México y Centroamérica. Se revisan algunos instrumentos normativos e institucionales que los países han adoptado a la luz de las recomendaciones y tratados internacionales, y se incluyen propuestas y recomendaciones, así como los componentes de una visión regional. El tercer capítulo examina la vigencia de los procesos de retorno, revisando conceptos, analizando experiencias y las dinámicas asociadas. Se identifican visiones y problemáticas, así como situaciones en las que acontece el retorno y se analizan en relación a diferentes perspectivas disciplinarias. Se destaca la perspectiva transnacional de la migración internacional para luego exponer algunas iniciativas de gobernanza de la migración de retorno en la región y en España, incluyendo programas, planes, leyes y proyectos, analizándolos en función del propósito de cada una. Un anexo contiene propuestas de estimación de la migración. |
| Keywords: | MIGRACION INTERNACIONAL, DINAMICA DE LA POBLACION, TENDENCIAS DEMOGRAFICAS, MIGRANTES, ADOLESCENTES, NIÑOS MIGRANTES, MIGRACION DE RETORNO, COOPERACION REGIONAL, INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION, POPULATION DYNAMICS, POPULATION TRENDS, MIGRANTS, ADOLESCENTS, CHILD MIGRANTS, RETURN MIGRATION, REGIONAL COOPERATION |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col045:39994 |
| By: | Kavallari, Aikaterini; Borresch, René; Schmitz, P.Michael |
| Abstract: | Last year the Mediterranean Member-States of the EU came across the reform of the CAP for three products tobacco, olive oil and cotton. In this paper a partial equilibrium model is used to simulate the impacts of decoupling, as a key point of the decided CAP Reform. Affected by this reform are almost only the south EU-countries and not the other EU-countries. Nevertheless, the introduction of the decoupled direct payments leads to welfare gains to the EU-15. |
| Keywords: | Decoupling, partial equilibrium model, tobacco, olive oil, cotton, Agribusiness, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae89:234611 |
| By: | András Gábos; Tim Goedemé |
| Abstract: | In 2010, heads of state and government agreed on the Europe 2020 poverty reduction target. The target is measured on the basis of a composite indicator, including income poverty, severe material deprivation and very low work intensity. In this paper, we summarise the main findings and conclusions of a series of studies carried out in the ImPRovE project, with regard to the quality of the three underlying indicators and their cross-sectional, longitudinal and dynamic relationships. By doing so, we point to relevant policy conclusions and areas for further improvement of the indicators and poverty research. |
| Keywords: | poverty, social exclusion, Europe 2020, consistent poverty, material deprivation, low work intensity, poverty dynamics |
| JEL: | D63 I32 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1613 |
| By: | Kosfeld, Michael; Neckermann, Susanne; Yang, Xiaolan |
| Abstract: | We manipulate workers' perceived meaning of a job in a field experiment and interact meaning of work with both financial and recognition incentives. Results show that workers exert more effort when meaning is high. Money has a positive effect on performance that is independent of meaning. In contrast, meaning and recognition interact negatively. Our results provide new insights into the stability of incentive effects across important work contexts. They also suggest that meaning and worker recognition may operate via the same motivational channel. |
| Keywords: | context factors; field experiment; interactions; meaning; monetary incentives; worker recognition |
| JEL: | C93 J33 M12 M52 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11221 |
| By: | Mario J. Crucini; Gregor W. Smith |
| Abstract: | We study the role of distance and time in statistically explaining price dispersion across 32 Swedish towns for 19 commodities from 1732 to 1914. The resulting large number of relative prices (502,689) allows precise estimation of distance and time effects, and their interaction. We find an effect of distance that declines significantly over time, beginning in the 18th century, well before the arrival of canals, the telegraph, or the railway. |
| JEL: | E37 F61 N70 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22175 |
| By: | Yaoqi Zhang (Auburn University); Jussi Uusivuori (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Jari Kuuluvainen (University of Helsinki) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the effects of economic, demographic andinstitutional factors on land allocation between forestry and other uses.A panel data set from Hainan Island in China and a generalized least squaresestimation method, allowing individual effects for counties, are applied.The results indicate that higher timber prices have led to accelerationin rainforest exploitation, but encouraged forest investment in plantationforests. Population growth is the driving force behind the loss of naturalforests, but is positively related to plantation forests. De-collectivizationseems to have promoted plantation forests, but have not saved therainforest. A higher share of forestry land owned by state-owned enterprisesalso fosters afforestation on wasteland, but seems to lead to faster exploitationof natural forest, at least initially. The uncertainty that existed inthe early period of economic reform quickened the pace of resource extractionand deterred investment. |
| Keywords: | Forestland tenure, economic transition,deforestation, reforestation, panel data |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016050 |
| By: | Ekvall, Tomas; Hirschnitz-Garbers, Martin; Eboli, Fabio; Sniegocki, Aleksander |
| Abstract: | Increasing material use efficiency is important to mitigate future supply risks and minimize environmental impacts associated with the production of the materials. The policy mix presented in this paper aims to reduce the use of virgin metals in the EU by 80% by 2050. We used a heuristic framework and a systems perspective for designing the policy mix that combines primary instruments (aimed to achieve the 80% reduction target – e.g. a materials tax, technical regulations and removal of environmentally harmful subsidies) and supportive instruments (aimed to reduce barriers to implementing the primary instruments and to contribute towards the policy objectives – e.g. research & development support, and advanced recycling centers). Furthermore, instruments were designed so as to increase political feasibility: e.g. taxes were gradually increased as part of a green fiscal reform, and border-tax adjustments were introduced to reduce impacts on competitiveness. However, even in such a policy mix design ongoing ex-ante assessments indicate that the policy mix will be politically difficult to implement – and also fall short of achieving the 80% reduction target. Nonetheless, we suggest combining primary and supportive instruments into coherent and dynamic policy mixes as a promising step towards system reconfigurations for sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Policy Mix, Policy Development, Resource Efficiency, Material Efficiency, Recycling, European Union, Sensitivity Model, Environmental Economics and Policy, L72, Q32, |
| Date: | 2016–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemei:234309 |
| By: | Serigne Diop (CEDoc - Centre des Etudes Doctorales Economie, Gestion et Droit - Université Hassan II Casablanca - UH2C (MOROCCO)) |
| Abstract: | Quelque soit le niveau de l'intensité concurrentielle du marché dans lequel évolue l'entreprise, l'amélioration continue de sa performance demeure son principal moyen de s'assurer une pérennité. Plusieurs outils ont été développés par les chercheurs et professionnels du contrôle de gestion en vue de permettre aux entreprises de se doter de leviers devant leur permettre de mieux piloter et maitriser leur performance opérationnelle, financière, technique et récemment celle environnementale. Théorisée et largement diffusée, la méthode ABC (Activity-Based Costing) ou système de comptabilité à base d'activités (SCA) à travers ses nombreux apports aux outils traditionnels de pilotage opérationnel et stratégique est présentée comme l'une des méthodes les plus efficaces. C'est dans ce cadre qu'une enquête quantitative par questionnaire a été conduite auprès de 62 entreprises sénégalaises, dans le but de savoir si la simple utilisation des SCA a permis une amélioration de la performance des entreprises. |
| Keywords: | Performance pilotage,Senegalese companies, management control systems, shareholder value.,dispositifs de contrôle de gestion,valeur actionnariale,Pilotage de la performance,comptabilité à base d’activités,entreprises sénégalaises |
| Date: | 2015–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01300862 |
| By: | Leno S. Rocha; Frederico S. A. Rocha; Th\'arsis T. P. Souza |
| Abstract: | We propose a diffusion process to describe the global dynamic evolution of credit operations at a national level given observed operations at a subnational level in a sovereign country. Empirical analysis with a unique dataset from Brazilian federate constituents supports the conclusions. Despite the heterogeneity observed in credit operations at a subnational level, the aggregated dynamics at a national level were accurately described with the proposed model. Results may guide management of public finances, particularly debt manager authorities in charge of reaching surplus targets. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.07782 |
| By: | Stephan B. Bruns (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Many meta-regression analyses that synthesize estimates from primary studies have now been published in economics. Meta-regression models attempt to infer the presence of genuine empirical effects even if the authors of primary studies select statistically significant and theory-confirming estimates for publication. Meta-regression models were originally developed for the synthesis of experimental research where randomization ensures unbiased and consistent estimation of the effect of interest. Most economics research is, however, observational and authors of primary studies can search across different regression specifications for statistically significant and theory-confirming estimates. Each regression specification may possibly suffer from biases such as omitted-variable biases that result in biased and inconsistent estimation of the effect of interest. We show that if the authors of primary studies search for statistically significant and theory-confirming estimates, meta-regression models tend to systematically make false-positive findings of genuine empirical effects. The ubiquity of such search processes for specific results may limit the applicability of meta-regression models in identifying genuine empirical effects in economics. |
| Keywords: | Meta-regression, meta-analysis, p-hacking, publication bias, omitted-variable bias, sampling variability, sampling error, Monte Carlo simulation |
| JEL: | C12 C15 C40 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201603 |
| By: | Laroche-Dupraz, Cathie; Huchet-Bourdon, Marilyne |
| Abstract: | Our hypothesis is that the Bonilla Index can be used as a consistent indicator of food security vulnerability to trade at national level. In this article, we test the assumption that, with the aim of stabilizing national food availability and accessibility, developing countries use policy instruments for stabilizing their Bonilla Index. After analysing the role of the national rate of assistance and of the exchange rate vulnerability of food security to trade, we first present the Bonilla Index evolution paths of 39 developing countries from 2005 to 2010. Second, we measure the impact of their national policy responses to 2008 price surge, by using the national rate of assistance on importable food products. Finally we test, statistically, the extent to which our qualitative hypotheses and relationships are actually confirmed by the data over the period 2005-2010. Our results suggest that most developing countries have used their possibility to play with the nominal rate of assistance level to compensate the effects of the 2008 food price surge, and that exchange rate variations actually have few impact on food accessibility for consumers in a context of volatility of food prices. |
| Keywords: | national rate of assistance, food security, exchange rate, food trade, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, Q17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:234941 |
| By: | Dr. Eckard Kämper |
| Abstract: | Dieses Papier widmet sich einem Themenkomplex, der mit dem Begriff „Forschungsethik“ wahrscheinlich nur grob umrissen ist. Konkret geht es um Risiken und Belastungen, die durch die Beteiligung an und die Durchführung von empirischer sozialwissenschaftlicher Forschung entstehen können. Dies impliziert Risiken für die Befragten / Probanden / Beobachteten, aber auch potenzielle Belastungen für die Sozialwissenschaftler/-innen, z. B. bei Forschung in Krisenregionen oder in Milieus am Rande der Legalität.Für die Sozialwissenschaften manifestiert sich damit ein Problem der Anschlussfähigkeit von Forschung in einem konkreten gesellschaftlichen Kontext. Deutlich wird dies beispielsweise im Spannungsfeld zwischen Erfordernissen des Datenschutzes einerseits und der Qualität und dem Informationsreichtum sozialwissenschaftlicher Daten andererseits – seien sie qualitativer oder quantitativer Natur. Es muss im Interesse der Sozialwissenschaften liegen, möglichen außerwissenschaftlichen Regulierungen durch eigene, selbstorganisierte Strukturbildung zu begegnen. In diesem Sinne sollte der Workshop, von dem hier berichtet wird, eine erste Problemanalyse ermöglichen.Die Idee des Workshops beinhaltete – grob gesprochen – zwei Schritte. Zunächst wurde aus der biomedizinischen Forschung und aus der Psychologie berichtet. In diesen Wissenschaftsgebieten ist das Bewusstsein für Belastungen vor allem für Probanden sehr viel weiter entwickelt; entsprechend sind hier umfangreiche Governance-Strukturen installiert, die als Hintergrund für mögliche künftige Entwicklungen in den Sozialwissenschaften von großem Interesse sind. Der zweite Schritt beinhaltete Erfahrungsberichte aus unterschiedlichen Bereichen der empirischen Sozial- und Verhaltenswissenschaften. |
| Keywords: | Forschungsethik, Datenschutz, Risiken, Kommissionen, Surveyforschung, qualitative Sozialforschung |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsw:rswwps:rswwps255 |
| By: | Nguyen Van Song (Vietnam National University of Agriculture); Nguyen Van Hanh (Vietnam National University of Agriculture) |
| Abstract: | This study estimated the environmental costs associated with the electricity demand requirements of the coal electricity sector, as a component of the long-run marginal opportunity cost (LR-MOC) of electricity production. The LR-MOC has three components: Marginal Production Cost or direct cost (MPC), Marginal User Cost (MUC) and the Marginal Environmental Cost (MEC). The MEC is divided further into two components: Marginal Environmental Cost of coal mining (MEC1) and Marginal Environmental Cost of coal burning (MEC2). The MEC1 consists of on-site environmental cost and off-site environmental cost while the MEC2 is made up of control cost and off-site environmental cost. The total production cost per tonne of clean coal was 241,050 VND in 1998 and was estimated to be 343,679.70 VND in 2010. The marginal environmental cost of coal mining (MEC1) is 19,029.4 VND/per tonne in 2010 or 5.5% of production cost. Of the MEC1, on-site and off-site cost is about 3.6% and 1.93% of production cost, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Pricing, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016058 |
| By: | Dudley, William (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | Remarks at the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development Annual Community Development Conference, New York City. |
| Keywords: | dual objective; dual mandate; American Dream; equal opportunity; upward mobility; Raj Chetty; intergenerational mobility; residential segregation; school quality; school vouchers; residential mobility |
| Date: | 2016–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:201 |
| By: | Hattori, Masahiko; Tanaka, Yasuhito |
| Abstract: | Economic growth requires that firms adopt new technologies. However, it may be insufficient in less competitive industries from the social welfare point of view. In this case, a government subsidy is necessary. We present an analysis of firms' adoption of new technology and government subsidization policy in a Stackelberg duopoly with differentiated goods. The technology itself is free, but each firm must expend a fixed set-up cost, such as training employees. There are several cases related to optimal policies depending on the set-up costs and whether the goods are substitutes or complements. In particular, there are two cases. (1) Social welfare is maximized when only the Stackelberg leader adopts the new technology, but no firm adopts the new technology without a subsidy. Then, the government should subsidize only the leader, which is a discriminatory policy. (Case 5 of Theorem 1 and Case 3-(1)-ii of Theorem 2) (2) Social welfare is maximized when both firms adopt the new technology, but only the leader adopts the new technology without a subsidy. Then, the government should subsidize only the follower. This policy is not discriminatory because adoption is the dominant strategy for the leader. (Case 2 of Theorem 1) |
| Keywords: | Stackelberg duopoly \and adoption of new technology \and subsidization \and sub-game perfect equilibrium |
| JEL: | D43 |
| Date: | 2016–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71044 |
| By: | Mikio Ito; Kiyotaka Maeda; Akihiko Noda |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the integration process of the Japanese major rice markets (Tokyo and Osaka) from 1881 to 1932. Using a non-Bayesian time-varying vector error correction (VEC) model, we argued that the process strongly depended on the government's policy on the network system of telegram and telephone; rice traders with an intention in using the modern communication tools were usually affected by the changes of the policy. We find that (i) the Japanese rice markets had been integrated in the 1910s; (ii) the increasing use of telegraphs had accelerated the rice market integration since the Meiji period in Japan; (iii) the local phone, which reduced the urban users' time for sending and receiving telegrams, promoted the market integration. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.00148 |
| By: | Liu, Bing; Hudson, Darren; Farmer, Michael |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, construction of starch-based ethanol plants has expanded rapidly across the United States to meet growing (largely policy-induced) ethanol consumption. On the one hand, locating an ethanol plant in a small rural city potentially benefits a local economy significantly in terms of increased job opportunities and tax revenue. In the Texas High Plains, however, there are growing concerns that the introduction of a new demand source for sorghum as feedstock is likely to affect farmers’ cropping decisions in the area around the ethanol plant. Thus, it is important to quantify how the opening of an ethanol plant causes farmers to alter their planting decisions. This study models the cotton acreage response from 2002 to 2014, using county-level panel data collected from Hockley County, Texas, that currently has a 40 million gallon per year sorghum-based ethanol plant in operation. Spatial econometric models are employed to account for any spatial dependence and other factors are used to control for prices, water availability, and other production decision variables. The spatial tests results show that cotton area planted around Hockley County is highly clustered. But after controlling for spatial autocorrelation and dependence, the model results suggest that the existence of the ethanol plant has no effect on the surrounding cotton acreage. |
| Keywords: | Ethanol Plant, Cotton Acreage, Spatial Models, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229799 |
| By: | Hernandez, Manuel A.; Torero, Máximo |
| Abstract: | Development projects are generally subject to a potential tradeoff between sustainability and poverty reduction. Grants are also commonly assigned without a standardized criterion. This paper proposes an innovative scoring tool that combines both a risk and poverty scorecard to prioritize lending and grant allocation. We implement and test the instrument through a competitive fund for demand-driven projects in Central America intended to better link smallholder farmers to markets and improve their welfare. The evaluation results show that the highest-ranked projects generally have a larger economic impact on their beneficiaries than lower-ranked projects. We observe a larger effect on income, access to credit,and access to local markets, and the relative differences are stronger over time. The proposed scorecard tool is intended to better ensure the accountability and sustainability of development funds and can be easily adapted to different contexts |
| Keywords: | poverty, risk, credit, finance, poverty scoring, risk scoring, lending, grant allocation, development projects, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1518 |
| By: | Rune Dahl Fitjar; Franz Huber; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how the formation of collaboration networks affects firm-level innovation by applying the ‘Goldilocks principle’. The ‘Goldilocks principle’ of optimal distance in innovation networks postulates that the best firm-level innovation results are achieved when the partners involved in the network are located at the ‘right’ distance, i.e. ‘not too close and not too far’ from one another, across non-geographical proximity dimensions. This principle is tested on a survey of 542 Norwegian firms conducted in 2013, containing information about firm-level innovation activities and key innovation partners. The results of the ordinal logit regression analysis substantiate the Goldilocks principle, as the most innovative firms are found amongst those that collaborate with partners at medium levels of proximity for all non-geographical dimensions. The analysis also underscores the importance of the presence of a substitution-innovation mechanism, with geographical distance problems being compensated by proximity in other dimensions as a driver of innovation, whilst there is no support for a potential overlap-innovation mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Proximities, innovation, networks, collaboration, Goldilocks principle, Norway |
| JEL: | O31 O33 D85 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1609 |
| By: | Kapllani, Armand; House, Lisa; Guan, Zhengfei |
| Abstract: | Specialty crop production account for about 70% of Florida agriculture and is of great economic importance to the state. The farmers in Florida are facing competition from other US States and Mexico and this is pushing them to look for other specialty crops that can be grown in Florida and diversify their investment. Pomegranate is the specialty crop that farmers in Florida have expressed interest in the last years and currently farmers have started to experiment growing pomegranates in their farms. In this study we use a sample of data obtained from an online survey and the focus of our study is to analyze the consumers’ behavior and determine the factors that are significant in the consumption of the pomegranate. Besides preferences and tastes of consumers in the study we consider other factors such as health benefits due to the high nutritional value of pomegranates. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230099 |
| By: | Michal Brzoza-Brzezina; Marcin Kolasa; Krzysztof Makarski |
| Abstract: | This paper checks how international spillovers of shocks and policies are modified when banks are foreign owned. To this end we build a two-country macroeconomic model with banking sectors that are owned by residents of one (big and foreign) country. Consistently with empirical findings, in our model foreign ownership of banks amplifies spillovers from foreign shocks. It also strenghtens the international transmission of monetary and macroprudential policies. We next use the model to replicate the financial crisis in the euro area and show how, by preventing bank capital out ow in 2009, the Polish regulatory authorities managed to reduce its contagion to Poland. We also find that under foreign bank ownership such policy is strongly prefered to a recapitalization of domestic banks. |
| Keywords: | foreign-owned banks, monetary and macroprudential policy, international spillovers, DSGE models with banking |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016003 |
| By: | Annette Bernhardt; Rosemary Batt; Susan Houseman; Eileen Appelbaum |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to develop a comprehensive research agenda to analyze trends in domestic outsourcing in the U.S. — firms’ use of contractors and independent contractors — and its effects on job quality and inequality. In the process, we review definitions of outsourcing, the available scant empirical research, and limitations of existing data sources. We also summarize theories that attempt to explain why firms contract out for certain functions and assess their predictions about likely impacts on job quality. We then lay out in detail a major research initiative on domestic outsourcing, discussing the questions it should answer and providing a menu of research methodologies and potential data sources. Such a research investment will be a critical resource for policymakers and other stakeholders as they seek solutions to problems arising from the changing nature of work. |
| JEL: | L L1 J J3 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:epo:papers:2016-03 |
| By: | Otsuka, Keijiro; Liu, Yanyan; Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | Farms throughout Asia are predominantly small. By nature, small farms use labour-intensive production methods. The question arises as to the viability of small farms in the face of the rapidly increasing wage rate in most Asian countries. There is also indication that the production efficiency of small farms has declined relative to large farms in many other Asian economies, indicating the increasing disadvantage of small farms in Asia. Therefore, this study argues that unless new policy measures are taken to expand farm size, Asia as a whole is likely to lose comparative advantage in agriculture and become an importer of food grains in the future |
| Keywords: | Small farms, viability, large farms, mechanization, Asia, Farm Management, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212721 |
| By: | Santos, João; Domingos, Tiago; Sousa, Tânia; St. Aubyn, Miguel |
| Abstract: | Neoclassical models disregard the role of energy in production, equating a factor's output elasticity with its cost share, but failing to explain growth without a residual term. In contrast, ecological economics acknowledges energy's importance in production, regardless of its cost share. The aggregate production function (APF) concept, central to neoclassical theory, is also disputed. We apply cointegration analysis to test for APFs between output, capital, and labor. We investigate the inclusion of energy inputs, measuring energy's capacity to generate productive work (useful exergy). Plausible APFs must verify cointegration and Granger-causality between output and inputs; and non-negative output elasticities. This method recognizes cases where: a) plausible APFs don't exist; b) energy impacts growth directly; c) energy impacts growth indirectly, through other inputs. We apply the method to Portugal (1960-2009), considering standard and quality-corrected capital and labor measures. Plausible APFs are rarely obtained for capital-labor models. When they are, the residual growth component is large, and output elasticities disagree with historical cost shares. However, the residual is virtually eliminated for capital-labor-energy models with two cointegration relationships: a) a capital-labor APF, with output elasticities matching historical cost shares; b) a function estimating capital from useful exergy. These models reconcile energy's significance in production with cost-share neoclassical assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Cointegration; Aggregate production function; Cost shares; Solow residual; Useful exergy |
| JEL: | C01 E13 O47 Q43 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70850 |
| By: | Ulisses Pereira dos Santos (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | It is believed that actors of the National System of Innovation (NSI) influence and are influenced by regional aspects, such as geographical distribution. Based on this perspective the scientific, technological and economical performances in sub-national divisions of nine developed and developing countries are analyzed in this paper. The aim is to evaluate the hypothesis on the existence of higher regional concentration of NSI actors in developing countries. The results suggest that this hypothesis may be correct, since science, technology and innovation activities are more likely to be regionally concentrated in the richest regions in the developing countries under consideration, contrary to that observed in developed countries. |
| Keywords: | National Systems of Innovation, Regional Development, Economic Development, Developing Countries. |
| JEL: | O10 O57 R58 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td534 |
| By: | van Dijk, Michiel; Gramberger, Marc; Laborde, David; Mandryk, Maryia; Shutes, Lindsay; Stehfest, Elke; Valin, Hugo; Zellmer, Katharina |
| Abstract: | To guide policymaking, decision makers require a good understanding of the long-term drivers of food security and their interactions. Scenario analysis is widely considered as the appropriate tool to assess complex and uncertain problems, such as food security. This paper describes the development process, storylines and drivers of four new global scenarios up to the year 2050 that are specifically designed for food security modelling. To ensure the relevance, credibility and legitimacy of the scenarios a highly participatory process is used, involving a diverse group of stakeholders. A novel approach is introduced to quantify a selection of key drivers that directly can be used as input in global integrated assessment models to assess the impact of aid, trade, agricultural and science policies on global food and nutrition security. |
| Keywords: | Scenarios, food security, participatory scenario building, integrated assessment., Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212624 |
| By: | Agarwal, Sumit (National University of Singapore); He, Jia (National University of Singapore); Liu, Haoming (National University of Singapore); Png, I. P. L. (National University of Singapore); Sing, Tien Foo (National University of Singapore); Wong, Wei-Kang (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | For most people, buying a home is their single largest financial commitment. Previous research shows that Chinese buyers pay less for homes with unlucky addresses and more for homes with lucky addresses. Using Singapore data on housing transactions combined with a plethora of individual buyer characteristics including ethnicity, age, nationality, education, and employment, we study the source of these preferences. We find evidence that buyers are heterogeneous. Consistent with superstition, older people, those who suffered from more traffic accidents, and people buying new apartments have stronger preference for lucky addresses, while people with Western names and senior public-sector employees have weaker preference. Consistent with conspicuous spending, people with Western names, senior public-sector employees, and people buying in luxury districts have weaker preference for lucky addresses. |
| Keywords: | superstition, conspicuous spending, real estate, prices, behavioral economics |
| JEL: | D1 R3 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9899 |
| By: | Senay, Ozge; Sutherland, Alan |
| Abstract: | Recent literature on monetary policy shows that, when international financial trade is restricted to a single non-contingent bond, there are significant trade-offs that prevent optimal policy from simultaneously closing all internal and external welfare gaps. Optimal policy therefore deviates from inflation targeting in order to offset real exchange rate misalignments. These simple models are, however, not good representations of modern financial markets. This paper develops a more realistic two-country model of incomplete markets, where there is international trade in nominal bonds denominated in the currencies of the two countries and equity claims on profit streams in the two countries. The analysis shows that the welfare benefits of optimal policy relative to inflation targeting are quantitatively smaller than found in simpler models of financial incompleteness. It is nevertheless found that optimal policy implies quantitatively significant stabilisation of the real exchange rate gap and trade balance gap compared to inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | Country portfolios; Financial market structure; Optimal monetary policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11198 |
| By: | HONDA Yuki |
| Abstract: | In order to find a way out from the situation facing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)'s political slogan "Empowerment of Woman," which appears to be not progressing remarkably, it is indispensable to grasp the actuality, diversity, causes, and influences of Japanese women's attitudes toward gender role and work. This paper tries to examine the distribution of attitude types among married women, factors of the differentiation of types, and influences of attitude types on their children, using the "Empowerment of Women" questionnaire survey data conducted in 2014. The main findings are: first, in the 2014 data, the attitude type characterized by the conservative gender role attitude and the negative attitude toward work accounts for one-third of married women and is the highest. The percentage of this attitude type is larger than in a past survey data conducted in 1995. Second, the factors related to the differentiation of attitudes types include self-evaluation of job skills, the way of spending spare time, and the importance attached to the family life. Third, attitude types have a different influence on their children according to the gender composition of the children. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:16042 |
| By: | Giovanni Gallo; Costanza Torricelli; Arthur van Soest |
| Abstract: | We use the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to explain how communication influences the heterogeneity in pension choices. To this end we exploit the 2007 Italian reform that allowed transferring future severance pay contributions into a pension fund and was accompanied by an information campaign with a clear message. According to ELM, individuals follow either a “central route” or a “peripheral route” depending on their motivation and ability to think, and eventually change or retain their initial attitude. Based on Logit models and data from the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth, we find that the decision to transfer the severance pay into a pension fund was taken by more educated and older individuals, with high household income. Since the reform was mainly directed at low income and younger individuals, this result suggest that the information campaign was not very effective. Moreover, our findings show that generic financial literacy does not significantly affect decision consciousness, pointing at a more relevant role in the elaboration process for: the individual’s comprehension of the specific choice object (pension funds), cognitive skills, and influential contextual factors (i.e., unions and employer’s pressure). |
| Keywords: | pension choices, Elaboration Likelihood Model, financial literacy |
| JEL: | D14 D03 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:cappmo:0136 |
| By: | Nguyen Nghia Bien (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural development) |
| Abstract: | The North Upland of Vietnam is characterized by biophysical, social and cultural diversity as well as its important role in the national economy’s development. However, the region, like those in other developing countries, suffers from serious environmental problems such as deforestation, soil degradation, loss of biodiversity and unsustainable livelihoods. Major causes are attributed to ineffective institutional arrangements such as inadequate property rights and enforcement, lack of local participation and empowerment, and misguided government policies. This research project began in early 1999 with financial and technical supports from the Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA). It aimed to determine the better institutional structures for promoting sustainable forest management in the North Upland using the multiple criteria decision making and participatory approaches. In other words, the project assessed and compared various forest management regimes against different socio-economic, environmental and institutional variables. Methods used in this research included Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), Criteria and Indicators (C&Is) Framework (CIFOR approach) and Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). PRA is used to learn about rural livelihoods and identify problems emerging from forest resource management and use, making sure that all information from the grassroots, including their views, interests and desires, is taken into consideration. C&Is Framework is widely used by CIFOR to test and develop C&Is for sustainable forest management in various locations around the world. It can result in a number of context-specific and locally adapted C&Is which are used for further treatment with MCDA. TopDec, one of the recently developed MCDA programs, was chosen for data analysis. |
| Keywords: | Forest management, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016052 |
| By: | Luis Felipe Zegarra (CENTRUM Católica Graduate Business School) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the effects of usury laws in the credit market of Lima in 1825-49. By relying on a sample of more than 1,100 notarized records, the article shows that the repeal of colonial anti-usury laws in early 1833 led to the increase in interest rates and to a greater access to credit. Furthermore, lenders made loans with greater maturities after the repeal of usury laws. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage credit, usury laws, interest rates, access to credit, Latin America |
| JEL: | N2 N26 N46 K1 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:2016-065 |
| By: | Villanueva, Anastasio J.; Rodriguez-Entrena, Macario; Arriaza, Manuel; Gomez-Limon, Jose A. |
| Abstract: | Agri-environmental schemes (AES) in irrigated olive groves (IOG) in southern Spain are assessed using a double analysis from the supply and demand side. Regarding the supply-side analysis, a choice experiment is used to assess farmers’ preferences toward AES, including some innovative issues, such as uptake in irrigated permanent crops, ecological focus areas and collective participation. With regard to the demand-side analysis, secondary sources of information are used to explore gains obtained from the implementation of such schemes in IOG. Results indicate that only the implementation of the most stringent AES scenarios could provide positive net social welfare gains and a priori only these scenarios should be considered for implementation by policy-makers. However, the implementation of these most stringent AES would only result in very low net social welfare gains. Further research is required to provide more accurate estimates of such gains and replicate this assessment in other agricultural systems. |
| Keywords: | Agri-environmental schemes, intensive agricultural systems, public goods, choice experiment, net social welfare gains., Marketing, Production Economics, Q18, Q58., |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211919 |
| By: | Yana Kucheva; Richard Sander |
| Abstract: | Racial residential segregation is still very high in many American cities. Some portion of segregation is attributable to socioeconomic differences across racial lines; some portion is caused by purely racial factors, such as preferences about the racial composition of one’s neighborhood or discrimination in the housing market. Social scientists have had great difficulty disaggregating segregation into a portion that can be explained by interracial differences in socioeconomic characteristics (what we call structural factors) versus a portion attributable to racial and ethnic factors. What would such a measure look like? In this paper, we draw on a new source of data to develop an innovative structural segregation measure that shows the amount of segregation that would remain if we could assign households to housing units based only on non-racial socioeconomic characteristics. This inquiry provides vital building blocks for the broader enterprise of understanding and remedying housing segregation. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:16-22 |
| By: | NAKAMURO Makiko; KAYABA Yutaka |
| Abstract: | In labor economics, a large body of research empirically suggests that assembling teams with a small number of workers improves worker productivity when the rewards are incentivized to team production. This may be explained by collaboration, mutual learning, knowledge and skills spillover, and social pressure among workers. Is this applicable for studying?. This paper examines the causal effect of team participation and team composition on student productivity using the datasets from an e-learning material called "Sulala" where students are randomly assigned into schools with either individual competition or team competition at the "Sulala Cup" implemented during the summer of 2015. According to the empirical results, students who are assigned into team competition on average are 14%-20% more productive than their counterparts who are assigned into individual competition. In addition to the productivity, it is found that students who are engaged in team competition improve their test scores as well. Once the sample is separated by gender, the effects to participate in team competition, however, appear to be positive and statistically significant only for male students. Looking at the effect of team composition on productivity, peer effects in forming teams with only male students are stronger than with only females or both male and female students. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:16028 |
| By: | Qianqian, Shao; Maarten, J. Punt; Justus, Wesseler |
| Abstract: | The EU and the US launched negotiations on a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) in July 2013. Among the TTIP aims, there are negotiable terms under which the EU would import more genetically modified (GM) products and change its labeling regulations on GM Organisms (GMOs). This paper discusses a trade agreement of agricultural products between two countries, with different GM regulatory regimes from a political economy perspective. We find the negotiation equilibrium of the GMO Trade Agreement and compare it with a stricter trade policy. We find that if the trade agreement leads to a lenient GM regulation, lobbying intensifies. However, this effect is moderated if there are exports of non-GM products. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, GMOs, international trade, International Relations/Trade, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212687 |
| By: | Karikallio, Hanna |
| Abstract: | At this study we analyze horizontal cross-commodity price transmission and integration of the EU livestock market of pork and beef. The study seeks to investigate whether or not there are long-term and short-term relationships between pork and beef prices in the EU. Our focus is on cross-commodity price transmission which provides valuable insights into market integration and efficiency. We utilize recently developed panel time-series techniques. Our data consists of monthly data on pork and beef prices in the EU member states during the period from February 1995 to June 2014. The estimation results reveal that there exists bi-directional relationship between pork and beef prices in the EU in long run. Cross-commodity price transmission between pork and beef has increased remarkably during the past ten years in the EU15 member states. Also the convergence to the equilibrium has sped up. In short run, we found evidence only for price transmission from pork prices to beef prices, not vice versa. Overall, short-run dynamics is significantly different in the EU livestock market compared to long run dynamics. |
| Keywords: | price transmission, market cointegration, panel time-series, pork and beef prices, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211832 |
| By: | Harris, Richard D F (Xfi Centre for Finance and Investment, University of Exeter); Stoja, Evarist (School of Economics, Finance and Management, University of Bristol); Tan, Linzhi (Division of Accounting and Finance, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University.) |
| Abstract: | We generalise the Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio management framework to incorporate time-variation in the conditional distribution of returns in the asset allocation process. We evaluate the performance of the dynamic BL model using both standard performance ratios as well as other measures that are designed to capture tail risk in the presence of non-normally distributed asset returns. We find that dynamic BL model outperforms a range of different benchmarks. Moreover, we show that the choice of volatility model has a considerable impact on the performance of the dynamic BL model. |
| Keywords: | Black-Litterman model; multivariate conditional volatility; portfolio optimization; non-normality; tail risk |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G11 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0596 |
| By: | Floris T. Zoutman (NHH Norwegian School of Economics, Norway); Bas Jacobs (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands); Egbert L. W. Jongen (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, The Hague; and Leiden University, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | The Netherlands has a unique tradition in which all major Dutch political parties provide CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis with highly detailed proposals for the tax-benefit system in every national election. This information allows us to quantitatively measure the redistributive preferences of political parties. For each political party we calculate social welfare weights by income level using the inverse optimal-tax method. We find that all political parties roughly give a higher social welfare weight to the poor than to the rich. Furthermore, left-wing parties attach higher social welfare weights to the poor and lower social welfare weights to the rich than right-wing parties do. However, we also discover two anomalies. First, all political parties give a much higher social welfare weight to middle incomes than to the working and non-working poor. Second, all Dutch political parties attach a slightly negative social welfare weight to the rich by setting top rates beyond the revenue-maximizing 'Laffer' rate. Finally, we detect a strong political status quo, since social welfare weights of all political parties hardly deviate from the welfare weights that are implied by the pre-existing tax-benefit system. We argue that political-economy considerations are key in understanding the political status quo and why middle-income groups are able to lower their tax burdens at the expense of both the low- and high-income groups. |
| Keywords: | Inverse optimal-tax method; revealed social preferences; political parties; optimal taxation; income redistribution |
| JEL: | C63 D63 H21 |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160032 |
| By: | Bermudez, Bladimir Carrillo; Santos Branco, Danyelle Karine; Trujillo, Juan Carlos; de Lima, Joao Eustaquio |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence of a negative externality of deforestation in infant health. As an identification strategy, we exploit the introduction of a change in the forest policy that caused a marked reduction in deforestation in the Amazon region of Brazil. We demonstrate that this forest policy reduced the rates of preterm birth and low birth weight in those municipalities that were (potentially) exposed to the intervention. Importantly, our results are insensitive to a variety of robustness exercises. |
| Keywords: | Brazil, Deforestation, Environmental Quality, Environmental Policy, Infant Health, Environmental Economics and Policy, I14, Q58, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229064 |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | Achieving deep decarbonization of the heavily coal-based energy system of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) while maintaining gross domestic product growth at an acceptable rate requires additional efforts beyond the strengthening of energy efficiency and the further introduction of renewable energy. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is an essential low-carbon option for the PRC. It is currently the only near-commercial system of technologies that offers medium-to long-term opportunities to make very deep cuts in carbon dioxide emissions from industrial processes and power plants based on coal (and other fossil fuels), while enabling the continued utilization of coal in a low-carbon way for such major applications. Drawing on relevant technical assistance from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), consultants’ reports, and the work of ADB staff, this report assesses the potential, the barriers, and the challenges in developing CCS in the PRC and recommends necessary policy actions during the 13th Five-Year Plan and the medium term to facilitate CCS demonstration and deployment. |
| Keywords: | co2, co2 emissions, carbon dioxide emissions, ghg, energy efficiency, prc emissions, ccs, fossil fuels, energy security, renewable energy, coal, power generation, low carbon technologies, climate change, low-carbon economy, carbon capture |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157521-2 |
| By: | Traore, Togo M.; Fields, Deacue |
| Abstract: | With a population increasing rapidly and agricultural yields stagnant over the years, access to food is a major challenge in Burkina Faso. This study investigates households demand for staple cereal commodities in Burkina Faso, using data from the 2009/10 integrated household living condition survey. A complete demand system (AIDS) model is estimated taking into account demographics and zero consumption. Results show that maize, millet and sorghum are necessities while rice is considered a luxury. Demand for maize, millet and sorghum are less price elastic than rice. These results are consistent for most households except for wealthy, educated households living in urban areas where rice becomes a necessity. The analysis of the evolution of cereal prices shows an overall increase leaving many people in food insecurity and causing food riots. |
| Keywords: | AIDS model, staple cereals demand, consumption patterns, Burkina Faso., Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, D12, Q11, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229989 |
| By: | Thomas M. Eisenbach; David O. Lucca; Robert M. Townsend |
| Abstract: | We study bank supervision by combining a theoretical model distinguishing supervision from regulation and a novel dataset on work hours of Federal Reserve supervisors. We highlight the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of supervision and use the model to interpret the relation between supervisory efforts and bank characteristics observed in the data. More supervisory resources are spent on larger, more complex, and riskier banks. However, hours increase less than proportionally with bank size, suggesting the presence of technological scale economies in supervision. The data also show reallocation of supervisory hours at times of stress and in the post-2008 enhanced supervisory framework for large banks, providing evidence of constraints on supervisory resources. Finally, we show theoretically limits to assessing supervisory success based on ex-post outcomes, as well as benefits of ex-ante commitment policies. |
| JEL: | D82 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22201 |
| By: | Griffith, G.R.; Mullen, J.D. |
| Abstract: | Continuous Improvement and Innovation (CI&I) is both a management process and a management strategy. In this paper we describe how CI&I principles have been used in a strategic planning context by the research economists’ group in the NSW Department of Primary Industries. We provide some background on the development of CI&I as a management concept and describe the steps involved in implementing the CI&I process in this context. We conclude with some observations about the usefulness of this approach for planning in a government department. |
| Keywords: | Continuous improvement and innovation, process, strategy, planning, action, Industrial Organization, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:auagpe:234414 |
| By: | Thompson, Jada M. |
| Abstract: | Beginning October 2015, McDonalds restaurants offer a limited breakfast menu all day in hopes of catalyzing business growth in the United States. The decision to expand the menu comes at a time when key breakfast menu inputs, i.e. eggs, are in shortage due to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in U.S. layer flocks. The first case of HPAI was announced December 2014 with the last reported detection occurring June 2015 affecting more than 48 million birds. The outbreak led to depopulation of millions of infected birds, limiting supply, which has led to higher retail prices to consumers both direct and indirect consumption. The increase in demand by McDonalds is expected to further exacerbate this issue. Using a partial equilibrium model of U.S. layer flocks, the welfare impacts of an increase in demand coupled with a decrease in supply can be estimated. By using HPAI outbreak supply shocks and a stochastic estimation of demand increases due to all day breakfast by McDonald’s, the total welfare are estimated to have an additional negative $220 thousand marginal impact to consumers and a positive $33 thousand impact to producers. |
| Keywords: | Animal Disease, Agricultural Business, Welfare, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Q13, |
| Date: | 2016–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229768 |
| By: | Eugen Dimant (Philosophy, Politics and Economics, University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Social interactions and the resulting peer effects loom large in both economic and social contexts. This is particularly true for the spillover of pro- and anti-social behavior in explaining how such behavior and norms spread across individual people, neighborhoods, or even cultures. Although we observe the outcomes of such contagion effects, little is known about the drivers and the underlying mechanisms, especially with respect to the role of social identity with one’s peers and the pro- and anti-sociality of behavior one is exposed to. We use a variant of a power-to-take dictator game to shed light on these aspects in a controlled laboratory setting. Our experiment contributes to the existing literature in two ways: first, using a novel approach of inducing social identification with one’s peers in the lab, our design allows us to analyze the spillover-effects of behavior under varied levels of social identity. Second, we study whether pro- and anti-social behavior are equally contagious. Our results suggest that anti-social behavior is more contagious than pro-social behavior and that the extent of social identification to one’s peers particularly drives the contagion of anti-social behavior. Our findings yield strong policy implications with regards to designing effective nudges and interventions to facilitate (reduce) pro- (anti-) social behavior. |
| Keywords: | anti-social behavior, behavioral contagion, charitable giving, peer effects, social identity |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D73 D81 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ppc:wpaper:0006 |
| By: | David Smerdon (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands); Theo Offerman (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands); Uri Gneezy (UC San Diego, United States) |
| Abstract: | Social norms permeate society across a wide range of issues and are important to understanding how societies function. In this paper we concentrate on 'bad' social norms - those that are inefficient or even damaging to a group. This paper explains how bad social norms evolve and persist; our theory proposes a testable model of bad norms based on anecdotal evidence from real-world examples. We then experimentally test the model and find empirical support to its main predictions. Central to the model is the role of a person's social identity in encouraging compliance to a norm. The strength of this identity is found to have a positive effect on bad norm persistence. Additionally, while the size of the social group does not have a long run effect, smaller groups are more likely to break a bad norm in the short term. Furthermore, the results suggest that both anonymous communication and increasing information about others' payoffs are promising intervention policies to counter bad norms. |
| Keywords: | Social norms; Experiment; Identity; Behavioral Economics |
| JEL: | D03 Z13 C92 |
| Date: | 2016–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160023 |
| By: | İriş, Doruk; Lee, Jungmin; Tavoni, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The provision of global public goods, such as climate change mitigation and managing fisheries to avoid overharvesting, requires the coordination of national contributions. The contributions are managed by elected governments who, in turn, are subject to public pressure on the matter. In an experimental setting, we randomly assign subjects into four teams, and ask them to elect a delegate by a secret vote. The elected delegates repeatedly play a one shot public goods game in which the aim is to avoid losses that can ensue if the sum of their contributions falls short of a threshold. Earnings are split evenly among the team members, including the delegate. We find that delegation causes a small reduction in the group contributions. Public pressure, in the form of teammates’ messages to their delegate, has a significant negative effect on contributions, even though the messages are designed to be payoff-inconsequential (i.e., cheap talk). The reason for the latter finding is that delegates tend to focus on the least ambitious suggestion. In other words, they focus on the lower of the two public good contributions preferred by their teammates. This finding is consistent with the prediction of our model, a modified version of regret theory. |
| Keywords: | Delegation, Cooperation, Threshold Public Goods Game, Climate Experiment, Regret Theory, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C72, C92, D81, H4, Q54, |
| Date: | 2016–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemet:234307 |
| By: | Abidi, Hella; Marner, Torsten; Schwarz, Dominic |
| Abstract: | In order to provide a sustainable handling of increasing freight traffic, there is a need for the minimization of the central problems of air and noise pollution and especially the emissions of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. This is especially true for the wholesale sector since it is one of the most important and transport intensive branches. Therefore, in science and politics, a significant future role of electric mobility in logistics is discussed. Funded by the State of North Rhine-Westphalia and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) the project partners FOM University of Applied Sciences, University of Duisburg-Essen (UDE), and the enterprises Handelshof, Noweda and Zentek investigate the operational change areas by using electric vehicles in their common project ERoute. In the field of wholesale business this research contribution examines the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of implementing electric vehicles. The contribution uses the results of test drives and interviews that have been conducted within the project E-Route. Furthermore, the contribution shows an exemplary economic comparison between the purchase costs and the operating costs of an electric truck and a comparable conventional diesel truck. The value of this paper is to provide guidance for further research and to give information for companies who are interested in gaining information concerning the chances and risks of implementing e-vehicles to their existing transport fleet. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fomild:45 |
| By: | Miller, Maryfrances |
| Abstract: | Dairy policy under the 2014 farm bill is an insurance program based on national milk and feed prices, despite considerable regional variation in feed costs and milk prices. Milk production response to low margin periods between 2000 and 2012 is compared by region. Consistent with prior research, the response is much greater in the West. There is no evidence that eastern and mid-western dairies reduce production in response to low margins. Implications for potential total and regional government expenditures for the Dairy Margin Protection Program are evaluated in the context of historical supply response and 2015 participation rates. |
| Keywords: | Dairy, Agricultural Policy, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, R38, Q13, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230075 |
| By: | Hernández Juan R. |
| Abstract: | In this paper I propose a Likelihood Ratio test for a unit root (LR) with a local-to-unity Autoregressive parameter embedded in ARMA(1,1) models. By dealing explicitly with dependence in a time series through the Moving Average, as opposed to the long Autorregresive lag approximation, the test shows gains in power and has good small-sample properties. The asymptotic distribution of the test is shown to be independent of the short-run parameters. The Monte Carlo experiments show that the LR test has higher power than the Augmented Dickey Fuller test for several sample sizes and true values of the Moving Average parameter. The exception is the case when this parameter is very close to -1 with a considerably small sample size. |
| Keywords: | Likelihood ratio test; ARMA model; Unit root test. |
| JEL: | C22 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-03 |
| By: | Peng, Yan-ling; Kong, Rong; Turvey, Calum G. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a structural equation model of entrepreneurial intentions as influenced by self-efficacy and perceived feasibility. In this paper self-efficacy refers to a kind of subjective perception and belief that the farmers complete the entrepreneurial activities on the basis of their capacity defined as entrepreneurial self-efficacy, which measured by five dimensions including resource acquisition, opportunity recognition, interpersonal relations, risk management, innovation management. The main findings are that most farmers appear to have a remarkable degree of entrepreneurial intentions; besides, self-efficacy has a significant and positive impact on farm households’ entrepreneurial intentions, and the effect is 0.669; furthermore, perceived feasibility of farmers play a significant role on entrepreneurial intentions; finally, the perceived feasibility of farmers has a partial mediating effect between entrepreneurial self-efficacy and the entrepreneurial intentions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212619 |
| By: | Nwigwe, Cecilia; Okoruwa, Victor; Obi-Egbedi, Oghenerueme |
| Abstract: | The present study analysed the technical efficiency and technological gaps (TGR/MTR) in three major beef cattle production systems in Nigeria, using the stochastic metafrontier approach. The usual methods of dealing with technological differences makes it difficult to separate “technology gaps” from technical inefficiency within a given system, hence the need for an analytical framework such as metafrontier which allows us to distinguish between the two. Results show that technical inefficiency exists in the three production systems but the ranching system is more efficient, in that it has a higher MTR. The average pooled technical efficiency TE with respect to the metafrontier was estimated to be 0.56; this suggests that there is scope to improve beef output in Nigeria by up to 44% of the total potential, giving existing technologies and inputs. |
| Keywords: | Beef cattle, production systems, technical efficiency, technological gap ratios, Nigeria, Livestock Production/Industries, Production Economics, C1, C8, C42, C50, |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229377 |
| By: | Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos |
| Abstract: | Currently in the oil market, the main question is: how should oil prices behave in order to ensure the rebalancing of the market? To answer this question, this paper presents an alternative pricing model to the Hotelling model. In this alternative model, the non-OPEC companies produce as much oil as possible, there are speculators and the market equilibrium is only assessed in the long-term, so that the relationship between the prices of different maturities is more flexible than suggested by the Hotelling model, with the alternative model providing justifications for the general shape of the futures price curve. This alternative model was then integrated with the global oversupply simulation model developed here and the long-term price it generated, allowing the estimation of current prices. The results indicate that (1) the current global oversupply should be reversed only from 2017 and (2) WTI price should begin to show a recovery trend, converging to US$65 in 2020 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:429 |
| By: | Kim, Minseong |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how accounting consistency affects DSGE models. As many DSGE models descended from real business cycle models, I explore a simple labor-only RBC model with an exogenous external sector introduced. The conclusion reached in this paper is that once an external sector is introduced, DSGE models may suffer from accounting inconsistency, unless disequilibrium or some non-orthodox theory of price level, real monetary supply or bonds is accepted. |
| Keywords: | accounting consistency, DSGE, external sector, fiscal deficit |
| JEL: | B41 E13 E62 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–03–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70356 |
| By: | Brühl, Volker |
| Abstract: | [Ausgangssituation ...] Das hier vorgestellte finanzökonomische Simulationsmodell soll die bestehenden Untersuchungen ergänzen, indem zum einen eine differenziertere Betrachtung der Kosten erfolgt und zum anderen die mittel- bis langfristig zu erwartenden Wertschöpfungsbeiträge der Schutzsuchenden berücksichtigt werden. Die nachfolgenden Berechnungen unterscheiden bewusst zwischen fiskalischen und gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekten der Zuwanderung, da diese weit auseinanderfallen können. Dadurch lässt sich zum einen zeigen, dass die hohen fiskalischen Belastungen keineswegs nur ein kurz- bis mittelfristiges Phänomen darstellen, sondern eine „fiskalische Dividende“ durch die zunehmende Erwerbstätigkeit von Schutzsuchenden zumindest in den nächsten 20 Jahren nicht zu erwarten ist. Andererseits wird deutlich, dass sich die Belastungen der öffentlichen Haushalte nach einer Spitzenbelastung schrittweise reduzieren und die erwerbstätigen Flüchtlinge durchaus einen nennenswerten Beitrag zur Bruttowertschöpfung in Deutschland leisten können. Dies erfordert jedoch hohe Investitionen in die Qualifizierung der Schutzsuchenden, die sich sowohl aus fiskalischer Sicht als auch aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht lohnen. Die hier vorgestellten Simulationsrechnungen sollen keineswegs suggerieren, dass es sich bei der Flüchtlingskrise um ein verdecktes Konjunkturprogramm handelt. Denn die hohen öffentlichen Ausgaben für die Versorgung und Integration der Flüchtlinge hätten alternativ z.B. für Infrastrukturprojekte, Innovationsförderung oder eine steuerliche Entlastung von Unternehmen oder Haushalten verwendet werden können. Vielmehr soll die Einbeziehung der Wertschöpfungsbeiträge die Perspektive über die fiskalischen Effekte hinaus erweitern und darlegen, dass die ökonomischen Belastungen aus gesamtwirtschaftlicher Sicht deutlich geringer ausfallen als die Haushaltswirkungen nahelegen. Allerdings werden Mehrgenerationeneffekte z.B. auf die Kranken- und Rentenversicherungssysteme nicht berücksichtigt. Abschließend wird ein 5-Punkte-Programm vorgeschlagen, das zu einer besseren Integration der Flüchtlinge in den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt beitragen kann. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:531 |
| By: | Frédéric Marty (GREDEG CNRS; University of Nice Sophia Antipolis) |
| Abstract: | La réglementation appliquée à certaines professions est plus souvent analysée sous le prisme d'une protection indue contre la concurrence que sous celui de la défense de l'intérêt général, i.e. de la prévention d'une défaillance de marché. Dans le cadre de la réforme de la réglementation applicable à certaines professions du droit inaugurée en France par la loi Macron d'août 2015, nous interrogeons le cadre réglementaire initial avant de nous attacher aux impacts possibles sur les prix et sur la qualité du service rendu de la réforme en cours. |
| Keywords: | professions réglementées, défaillances de marché, capture de la réglementation, asymétrie d’information, biens de confiance |
| JEL: | K23 L43 L51 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-12 |
| By: | Kirui, Oliver; Mirzabaev, Alisher |
| Abstract: | Land degradation is a serious impediment to improving rural livelihoods in Tanzania and Malawi. This paper identifies major land degradation patterns and causes, and analyzes the determinants of soil erosion and sustainable land management (SLM) in these two countries. The results show that land degradation hotspots cover about 51%, 41%, 23% and 23% of the terrestrial areas in Tanzania, Malawi and Ethiopia respectively. The analysis of nationally representative household surveys shows that the key drivers of SLM in these countries are biophysical, demographic, regional and socio-economic determinants. Secure land tenure, access to extension services and market access are some of the determinants incentivizing SLM adoption. The implications of this study are that policies and strategies that facilities secure land tenure and access to SLM information are likely to incentivize investments in SLM. Local institutions providing credit services, inputs such as seed and fertilizers, and extension services must also not be ignored in the development policies. Some of the actions taken by communities to address loss of ecosystem services or enhance or maintain ecosystem services improvement include afforestation programs, enacting of bylaws to protect existing forests, area closures and controlled grazing, community sanctions for overgrazing, and integrated soil fertility management in croplands. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212008 |
| By: | Alberto Bagnai (Department of Economics, Gabriele d'Annunzio University); Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina (Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries) |
| Abstract: | Building on the well-established “rockets and feathers” literature, and on the recently developed nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) modelling, we investigate the asymmetries in gasoline pricing on a comprehensive sample of monthly data from twelve Eurozone countries running from 1994:1 to 2014:12. The empirical results feature two robust patterns. Firstly, while the effects of exchange rate variations display a positive asymmetry (i.e., devaluations have a greater impact with respect to revaluations), crude price variations induce negative asymmetry (i.e., reductions in the price of crude oil have a greater impact than price rises). Secondly, the positive asymmetry to exchange rate changes is much stronger in core Eurozone countries. The negative asymmetry with respect to crude oil prices confirms the results of recent empirical research and theoretical models. |
| Keywords: | asymmetric cointegration, asymmetric price adjustment, pass-through, gasoline price, European gasoline market, signaling. |
| JEL: | C22 D43 D82 E31 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ais:wpaper:1602 |
| By: | Min, Shi; Huang, Jikun; Bai, Junfei; Waibel, Hermann |
| Abstract: | Rubber plantations have been expanding rapidly in Mekong Region including Southern China. OFten this was accompanied by negative effects for ecoystems. Intercropping in rubber plantation is suggested as a means of reducing environmental and economic risks. Based onc ross section data of some 600 rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna, we develop four empirical models to analyze adoption of intercropping at farm and at plot level. Results suggest intercropping is an important source of income for the household in the lower income category. However, only a small proportion of rubber farmers have adopted intercropping, with tea being the most frequently adopted intercrop. Major factors of adoption are ethnicity, altitude and household wealth. At plot level the nature of land and the age of rubber trees are major factors. The findings provide important information for agricultural extension services who want to promote complementary income sources in the context of recently falling rubber prices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212463 |
| By: | Nguyen, Duc Loc; Grote, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the factors determining the length of migration and return plans of rural migrants within Vietnam. The findings shows that migrants coming from rural households that faced a higher number of idiosyncratic shocks increase their stays in the cities, while those from original households that experienced transient shocks shorten the length of their stays in the cities. An increased length of migration is also observed among migrants and households with higher human capital. A decreased income gap between destination and original provinces due to the higher economic growth of original places also increases the duration of migration. The results of the analysis on the migration intensity imply that the plans of migrants to return not only increase in case they face shocks in the cities, but also with the improvement of the living conditions at their original places. |
| Keywords: | Migration Intensity, Length of Migration, Random-Effect Tobit Regression, Vietnam, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, D13, J28, J61, O15, O18, Z13, |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229380 |
| By: | Schneider, Gregor; Breßler, Julia |
| Abstract: | Vor dem Hintergrund eines zwölfdimensionalen Konstrukts zur Operationalisierung von Innovationsfähigkeit des Wuppertaler Instituts für Klima, Umwelt und Energie wird in diesem Working Paper eine Untersuchung dargestellt, wie sich der Zusammenhang von organisationaler Lernfähigkeit und Innovativität empirisch aufzeigen lässt. Dazu wurden in einer Literaturstudie aus über 2000 wissenschaftlichen Beiträgen relevante Studien identifiziert und analysiert. |
| Abstract: | Against the background of a multi-dimensional construct for operationalization of innovativeness an investigation of this relationship is shown in this Working Paper. We have identified and analyzed studies of over 2000 scientific papers. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tucitm:71 |
| By: | Nguyen Viet Cuong (Institute of Public Policy and Management, National Economics University); Vu Thieu (Vietnam); Pham Minh Thu (Vietnam); Nguyen Xuan Truong (Ministry of Health of Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | Clean water is essential for human survival, yet many people do not have access to clean water in Vietnam. Only around 23 percent of the population had access to piped water in 2006. Other households have to use water from wells, rivers, and ponds without any purification. This study measured the effect of piped water on household welfare using difference-in-differences estimators on panel data from the Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys. Results showed a positive effect of piped water on household income and labor supply, but these were not statistically significant. Piped water showed a negative effect on sickness of household members, but this was also not statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | piped water, welfare, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016044 |
| By: | Vranceanu, Radu (Essec Business School, Economics Department); Sutan, Angela (University of Bourgogne Franche-Comté, ESC Dijon); Dubart, Delphine (Essec Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports results from a linear sanction cost variant of the power-to-take game, with implications for tax policies. We compare a pay-as-you-earn (PAYE) system with an ex-post taxation system in which payroll taxes are collected at the end of the fiscal year. Dissatisfaction with taxation, as proxied by the sanction in the power-to-take game, is significantly higher in an ex-post taxation system compared with the PAYE system. However, in anticipation of the higher sanction, the "tax authority" will not apply lower taxes in the former system. Communication does not decrease dissatisfaction in a significant manner, and it is not used extensively by participants. |
| Keywords: | Power-to-take game; Experiments; Tax systems; Dissatisfaction with taxes |
| JEL: | C91 D01 H26 |
| Date: | 2016–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-16002 |
| By: | Michela Ponzo (University of Naples and CSEF); Vincenzo Scoppa (University of Calabria and IZA) |
| Abstract: | We use a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to evaluate the impact of cost-sharing on the use of health services. In the Italian health system, individuals reaching age 65 and earning low incomes are given total exemption from cost-sharing for health services consumption. Since the probability of exemption changes discontinuously at age 65, we use a Fuzzy RDD in which the age threshold is used as an instrument for exemption. We find that prescription drug consumption, specialist visits and diagnostic checks remarkably increase with exemption. However, using several measures of health outcomes we do not find any change in individual health. |
| Keywords: | Health Insurance; Healthcare Demand; Cost-Sharing; Moral Hazard; Health Outcomes; Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design; Instrumental Variables. |
| JEL: | I10 I13 I11 I18 C26 |
| Date: | 2016–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:440 |
| By: | Cabrales, Antonio; Feri, Francesco; Gottardi, Piero; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A. |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on experiments testing the viability of markets for cheap talk information. We find that these markets are fragile. The reasons are surprising given the previous experimental results on cheap-talk games. Our subjects provide low-quality information even when doing so does not increase their monetary payoff. We show that this is not because subjects play a different (babbling) equilibrium. By analyzing subjects' behavior in another game, we find that those adopting deceptive strategies tend to have envious or non-pro-social traits. The poor quality of the information transmitted leads to a collapse of information markets. |
| Keywords: | Auction; cheap talk; Experiment; Information Acquisition; Information Sale |
| JEL: | C72 D83 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11206 |
| By: | Müller, Tobias; Shaikh, Mujaheed |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on intra-household retirement externalities by assessing the causal effect of partner's retirement on own health behaviour in Europe. We identify partner's retirement effects by applying a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) framework using retirement eligibility as an exogenous instrument for partner's retirement status. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) we find that while partner's retirement increases own physical activity, it also increases smoking by up to 7 cigarettes a day and increases alcohol intake by 1-2 drinks per day. Furthermore, we find that physical activity increases only for individuals that are themselves retired pointing toward compensated effects that arise due to husband's and wife's retirement being complements. Similarly, an increase in alcohol intake is observed only if the individuals are themselves retired and an increase in smoking is only observed if the partner is a smoker suggesting mutual positive externalities and leisure complementarities. |
| Keywords: | Retirement Externalities, Health Behaviour, Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design |
| JEL: | C26 I12 J26 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70857 |
| By: | Ben-Yashar, Ruth (Bar-Ilan University); Danziger, Leif (Ben Gurion University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how to allocate experts into committees that use the unanimity rule to make decisions. We show that an optimal allocation of experts is extremely asymmetric. To reach the optimal allocation, therefore, one needs only to rank the experts in terms of their abilities and then allocate adjacent experts such that an expert's ability tends to vary inversely with the size of his committee. In the special case of three-member committees, we show that the optimal allocation maximizes the sum of the products of the experts' skills in each committee. |
| Keywords: | unanimity rule, extremely asymmetric committees, optimal composition of committees |
| JEL: | D71 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9875 |
| By: | Wang, Xiaojin |
| Abstract: | The retail market for shrimp is dynamic with substantial competition between imports and domestic products. Country of origin and method of production (wild and/or farm-raised) labels are required for all seafood since April 4, 2005. But little is known about how these and other credence attributes are valued in the retail market. To estimate the value of these attributes, we use weekly store scanner data of unbreaded frozen shrimp products in 2013. An estimated hedonic model shows a premium for both home (product of USA), and price premium for fishing method (wild-caught), and a premium for the organic claim. The results contribute new insights regarding opportunities for differentiation by credence attributes which may lead to more sustainable and effective resource use along the value chain for shrimp. |
| Keywords: | country-of-origin labeling, revealed preference, hedonic price, shrimp, scanner data, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, C23, D12, Q22, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230197 |
| By: | Tewari, Rachna; Vann, Scott; Mehlhorn, Joey; Parrott, Scott; Pruitt, Ross |
| Abstract: | Federal nutrition assistance programs at farmers’ markets are considered effective strategies to support direct marketing of local produce, and to increase consumer access to healthy food in low-income communities. Review of existing literature suggests lack of significant research regarding FMNP programs in west Tennessee. The primary goal of this study is to evaluate the existing Farmers’ Market Nutrition Programs (FMNP) from both producers’ and recipients’ perspectives. This will be achieved through an exploratory survey analysis for the participating west Tennessee farmers’. The results from this study will be instrumental in expanding the visibility of fresh farm produce from farmers as a means to promote health benefits among recipients, as well as a platform for farmers to improve their distribution and marketing network. |
| Keywords: | farmers markets, nutrition program, survey, west Tennessee, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, I38, Q13, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229796 |
| By: | Kpadonou, Rivaldo; Barbier, Bruno; Denton, Fatima; Owiyo, Tom |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the authors analyze the linkage between and the determinants of organic fertilizer and modern varieties (MVs) adoptions in Burkina Faso. Using simultaneous recursive and endogenous switching probit models, we found a positive joint determination along with a negative endogeneity between the two technologies, indicating controlling for observable variables adoption decisions of the two technologies are positively correlated, but unobserved factors that affect one decision are negatively correlated with the other, or vice versa. After controlling for jointness and endogeneity, we found a significant positive effect of organic fertilizer application on MVs adoption. But, the two technologies are reversely affected by household head’s attending formal education and the incidence of soil fertility problem within the farm. The size of good land holding appears to have a positive effect on both adoption decisions. Other factors that significantly affect MVs adoption with positive effect are number of cashcrop grown and remittances. The study suggests that organic fertilizer can serve as enabling factor for greater adoption of MVs, especially in less favourable climate areas. In areas where farmers invest less in inorganic fertilizer because of higher climate and market risks, organic fertilizer can serve as an effective alternative to replace inorganic fertilizer in the adoption process of MVs. Policies to promote green revolution technologies in Sub-Saharan Africa could be more effective if jointly associated with the promotion of conservation agriculture technologies. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212016 |
| By: | Kornher, Lukas; Kalkuhl, Matthias |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the 2007/2008 international food crisis, public food reserve re-gained the attention of policy makers. However, they come at high economic and fiscal costs. On the other hand, the imperfect correlation of supply shocks across neighboring countries entails the potential to reduce regional market volatility through intra-regional trade integration and storage cooperation. In this chapter, optimal reserve levels are theoretical derived in order to assess costs and benefits from regional storage cooperation. The model is then applied to the West African region which is in the process of establishing a region-wide reserve. Accordingly, regional stocks under cooperation in an emergency reserve can be 40 percent less than without cooperation. Limited intra-regional trade reduces the need for stock releases significantly. Full market integration would diminish regional consumption variability to 3.4 percent, less than for every other individual West African country, but is not effective in dampening severe supply shortfalls. Cooperation in a stabilization reserve in addition to trade integration has only limited impact on consumption stability, and thus storage cooperation shall be restricted to an emergency reserve. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211824 |
| By: | Mitchell, Melissa; Ott, Kathy; McCarthy, Jaki |
| Abstract: | In order to target nonrespondents proactively, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) began using propensity nonresponse models for the Quarterly Agricultural Survey (QAS). Since 2009, NASS has used national models to identify likely nonrespondents for the QAS. For the September and December 2012 surveys, targeted data collection procedures were created, partly based on the nonresponse propensity scores, and evaluated. We compared response rates between treatment and comparison states to determine the scores’ efficacy. In addition, we examined the difference in actual and predicted response rates for the treatment and comparison states to determine whether the targeted data collection procedures increased response rates. |
| Keywords: | nonresponse, classification trees, targeted data collection, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:unasrr:235038 |
| By: | Thomas Leopold; Jan Skopek |
| Abstract: | To examine how transitions to retirement influenced the division of household labor in dual earner couples. We tested hypotheses about changes (a) between a couple’s pre-retirement and post-retirement stage, and (b) across the transitionalphase during which both spouses retired from the workforce. We estimated fixed-effects models for the effects of the husband’s and the wife’s retirement on changes in their hours and share of routine housework. The data came from 29 waves of the German Socio-economic Panel Study, comprising N = 27,784 annual observations of N = 3,071 dual earner couples ages 45 to 75. Spouses who retired first performed more housework, whereas their partners who continued working performed less. This occurred irrespective of the retirement sequence. Husbands who retired first doubled up on their share of housework, but never performed more than 40 percent of a couple’s total hours. None of the observed shifts was permanent. After both spouses had retired, couples reverted to their pre-retirement division of housework. Although the findings on changes after retirement support theories of relative resources, gender construction theories still take precedence in explaining the division of household labor over the life course. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp837 |
| By: | Nikolaos Antonakakis (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Portsmouth; Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University); Christina Christou (University of Pireaus, Department of Banking & Financial Management, Greece); Juncal Cunado (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the convergence patterns of Euro Area (EA) 17 countries’ sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to German bund) over the period of March 2002 to December 2015, by employing the convergence algorithm developed by Phillips and Sul (2007). The empirical findings suggest rejection of full convergence across the EA17 countries’ bond yields spreads, and the presence of a certain number of clubs. In particular, three subgroup convergence clubs emerge, with Cyprus, Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Portugal and Slovenia in the first; Belgium, Italy and Malta in the second; and Austria, Finland, Netherlands and Slovakia in the third club. Moreover, there is also evidence that the first two clubs could be merged to form a larger convergence club. The transitional curves indicate that, despite short-run divergences, EU17 sovereign bond yield spreads tend to converge over the long, with the exception of those in Greece and Cyprus, indicating the strong attempts of most of the countries under investigation to adopt fiscal policies that eventually contribute to a convergence pattern. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign bond yield spreads, Club convergence, Euro Area |
| JEL: | C33 E61 G12 H77 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201616 |
| By: | Rutsaert, Pieter; Demont, Matty |
| Abstract: | Although Vietnam is one of the biggest rice exporters today, there is an urgent need to restructure the sector. To guide the transition from a quantity focused producer to a credible supplier of high quality rice, this study explores the diversity in value chains and the sector’s opportunities for sustainable value chain upgrading. During a participatory multi-stakeholder workshop participants from the public as well as the private sector were guided through several collective tasks to uncover the strengths and weaknesses of the Vietnamese rice sector, and the opportunities and threats (SWOT) the sector faces to become more sustainable. Subsequently, a Strategic Orientation Round (SOR) was used to evaluate the relative importance of the SWOT components. Results show that the stakeholders perceive the sector’s capability to grasp opportunities (including growing export and domestic markets) to be higher than its resilience to potential threats (including more stringent food safety regulations and global warming). Three different strategies are discussed for making rice value chains more sustainable: embodying, disembodying and internalizing sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212204 |
| By: | Nikola Bokan (European Central Bank); Andrea Gerali (Bank of Italy); Sandra Gomes (Bank of Portugal); Pascal Jacquinot (European Central Bank); Massimiliano Pisani (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We incorporate financial linkages in EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area (EA) by including financial frictions and country-specific banking sectors. In this new version, termed EAGLE-FLI (Euro Area and GLobal Economy with Financial LInkages), banks collect deposits from domestic households and cross-country interbank market and raise capital to finance loans issued to domestic households and firms. In order to borrow from local (regional) banks, households use domestic real estate whereas firmsuse both domestic real estate and physical capital as a collateral. These features – together with the full characterization of trade balance and real exchange rate dynamics and with a rich array of financial shocks – allow to properly assess domestic and cross-country macroeconomic effects of financial shocks. Our results support the views that (1) the business cycles in the EA can be driven not only by real shocks, but also by financial shocks, (2) the financial sector could amplify the transmission of (real) shocks, and (3) the financial/banking shocks and the banking sectors can be sources of business cycle asymmetries and spillovers across countries in a monetary union. |
| Keywords: | Banks, DSGE models, econometric models, financial frictions, open-economy macroeconomics, policy analysis |
| JEL: | E51 E32 E44 F45 F47 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1064_16 |
| By: | Daniel Schneider, (University of California - Berkeley/UCSF); Sara McLanahan (Princeton University); Kristen Harknett (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | In the United States, the Great Recession has been marked by severe negative shocks to labor market conditions. In this study, we combine longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study with Bureau of Labor Statistics data on local area unemployment rates to examine the relationship between adverse labor market conditions and intimate partner violence between 1999 and 2010. We find that rapidly worsening labor market conditions are associated with increases in the prevalence of violent/controlling behavior in marriage. These effects are most pronounced among whites and those with at least some post-secondary education. Worsening economic conditions significantly increase the risk that white mothers and more educated mothers will be in violent/controlling marriages rather than high quality marital unions. |
| Keywords: | Recession, Uncertainty, Intimate Partner Violence, Gender |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:crcwel:wp14-04-ff |
| By: | Li, Jian; Chavas, Jean-Paul; Etienne, Xiaoli; Li, Chongguang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the linkages between commodity price bubbles and macroeconomic factors, with an application to agricultural commodity markets in China from 2006 to 2014. Price bubbles are identified using a newly-developed recursive right-tailed unit root test. A Zero-inflated Poisson Model is used to analyze the factors contributing to bubbles. Results show that a) there were speculative bubbles in most of the Chinese agricultural commodities during the sample period, though their presences are rather infrequent; b) economic growth, money supply and inflation have positive effects on bubble occurrences, while interest rate has a negative effect; c) among all macroeconomic factors considered, economic growth and money supply have the greatest effects on bubble occurrences. Our findings shed new light on the nature and formation of bubble behavior in the Chinese agricultural commodity markets. |
| Keywords: | price bubbles, macroeconomic factors, agricultural commodity, right-tailed unit root test, Zero-inflated Poisson model, China, Demand and Price Analysis, Risk and Uncertainty, G12, G13, Q13, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:235068 |
| By: | Ngoc, Pham Thi; Meuwissen, Miranda; Le, Tru; Bosma, Roel; Verreth, Johan; Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. |
| Abstract: | A growing number of European customers’ demands certified pangasius such as ASC in order to ensure sustainable production. Implementing Recirculating Aquaculture Systems (RAS) contributes to an improved water quality, a key issue in achieving ASC certification. This study uses a choice experiment to measure farmers’ preferences for RAS in pangasius production in Vietnam. The farmers’ choice for RAS is positively affected by enhanced yield levels and achievement of ASC certification with price premium. Also the area of farming is found to be important, i.e. farmers in saltwater intrusion areas are more likely to implement RAS. Main constraints are availability of finance and lack of trust in receiving the ASC price premium. To stimulate the adoption of RAS, policies can provide interest subsidies on loans to finance RAS investment, while retailers could ensure a price premium for ASC certified pangasius. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212632 |
| By: | Hayakawa, Kazunobu; Laksanapanyakul, Nuttawut; Yoshimi, Taiyo |
| Abstract: | This study examines how the importing process time affects export patterns at an establishment level. We first theoretically discuss the effects of import time on not only exports but also export shipment frequency and exports per shipment. Then, we derive some propositions regarding those effects. Next, by employing highly detailed customs data for Thailand from 2007 to 2011, we empirically investigate those propositions. In this study, the time to import is measured at an establishment level using the difference between the dates on which import shipments arrived in ports and then were released from the container yard. Our main finding is that a longer time reduces total exports, particularly through decreasing export frequency. Significantly negative effects on exports per shipment appear in some specific cases. A longer time to import also reduces total imports, particularly through decreasing import frequency. |
| Keywords: | Thailand, International trade, Econometric model, Customs, Time |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper566 |
| By: | Cheng, Yahao; Gao, Zhifeng; Seale, James L. Jr. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the determinants of meat imports of China. Results indicate that import demand is mostly determined by import price and real GDP. Imported price has a negative effect and real GDP has a positive influence on import quantity. Tariff does not have a significant effect. As GDP and consumption capacity increases, China has a large potential demand for meat imports. Some countries may gain if China’s economy continues expanding, while others, like the United States, are the most sensitive to the trade policy of China. |
| Keywords: | meat import demand, China, price elasticity, income elasticity, pork, beef, poultry, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212717 |
| By: | Lin, Benxi; Zhang, Yu Yvette; Lin, Zongjian; Wang, Yongli; Liu, Weiping |
| Abstract: | This paper studied the impact of fiscal subsidies on the participation rate and contributions of the rural residents in the China’s New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) program using a natural experiment, where the fiscal subsidies includes the incentive pension and the matching subsidy. The results showed that incentive pension can significantly improve the rural residents' participation rates, but participation rate of young residents are less than the older residents. We also showed that matching subsidy does not affect the rural residents' participation rates and contributions significantly. Our results suggest that the current fiscal subsidies play an important role in the establishment and expansion of the NRPS program, but have not increased the participation rate of younger people, which was one of the initial goal of NRPS. |
| Keywords: | Chinese Pension System, New Rural Pension Scheme (NPRS), Incentive Pension, Matching Subsidy, Participation Rate in Pension System, Pension Contributions, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:229376 |
| By: | Yehouenou, Lauriane S. M.; Barnett, Barry J.; Harri, Ardian; Coble, Keith H. |
| Abstract: | The Federal Crop Insurance Products offered for major field crops are either yield-based or revenue-based and offered at either the unit-level (farm or sub-farm) or county-level. The 2014 Farm Bill created the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) and Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX) insurance products. These products provide county-level coverage against “shallow-losses” that can be added to the coverage provided by a unit-level yield or revenue insurance product. Historically, county-level insurance products have been based on National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) county yield estimates. However, in recent years NASS has reduced the number of counties for which it reports county yield estimates. As a result, the Risk Management Agency (RMA) is now basing all county-level insurance products (including SCO and STAX) on aggregated (to the county-level) farm-level yield data obtained from unit-level yield and revenue insurance policies sold. This paper analyzes how the performance of county-level insurance products might be impacted by this change. Specifically, the paper analyzes how differences across counties in factors such as unit-level insurance participation, the characteristics of producers purchasing unit-level insurance, and spatial yield correlation affect the performance of county-level insurance products based on aggregated unit-level insurance yield data. |
| Keywords: | crop insurance, estimated county yield, bias, Risk and Uncertainty, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230081 |
| By: | Marenya, Paswel; Kassie, Menale; Jaleta, Moti; Rahut, Dil Bahadur; Erenstein, Olaf |
| Abstract: | Minimum tillage combined with mulching (MTM) are two critical components of conservation agriculture (CA) that can have important economic benefits for adopting farmers and positive environmental impacts for the community. Using a unique set of plot level, four-country data that includes household demographic and plot characteristics, this paper uses a binary probit model followed by post-estimation simulations to examine the effect of micro-level factors (plot, farmer characteristics, social capital), meso-level factors (access to markets) and national level policy variables (government input subsidy expenditures and investments in agricultural extension staffing), as predictors of MTM in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi and Tanzania. Key policy principles in promoting CA should clearly focus on long term strategies to aggressively invest in agricultural extension but also reduce the costs of farm inputs. |
| Keywords: | adoption, agricultural extension, conservation agriculture, policy, input subsidy, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q01, Q18, Q12, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212228 |
| By: | Daniel, Amber; Gumirakiza, J. Dominique |
| Abstract: | This study sought to analyze the competitiveness between the farmers markets, describe the legal requirements that farmers must adhere to participate in a farmers market, investigate whether new markets could be started, and identify policies that promote competition among farmers. This study uses data collected from 46 farmers’ market vendors and managers through in-person, online, and mail surveys in the Western Kentucky area. Respondents believe that farmers’ market regulations are less restrictive and are enforced fairly. They feel like they face relatively low competition for there are either just enough or few farmers markets in their area, suggesting that more markets could be opened successfully in the area. Most respondents think that community members are less informed of farmers’ markets (location, produce availability, prices, and operating hours). They believe that their markets could be improved if there was a way to ensure that markets were better known. Community leaders and policy makers should create and support programs that promote and increase awareness of farmers markets (perfect information for both buyers and sellers). Since famers’ market regulations are less restrictive, new entry by local farmers could improve market competitiveness. Market managers and vendors should improve their marketing strategies through newspapers, radio, billboards and/or any other advertising channels to increase awareness. Specific locations for new farmers markets should be identified and support to create new farmers’ markets or expand/strengthen the existing ones could increase opportunities to serve more consumers and promote the competition among markets’ markets and vendors in the area. |
| Keywords: | farmers markets, competitiveness, legal structure, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229985 |
| By: | Osório, António (António Miguel) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines different Brownian information structures for varying time intervals. We focus on the non-limit case and on the trade-offs between information quantity and quality to efficiently establish incentives. These two dimensions of information tend to complement each other when signals quality is sufficiently high. Otherwise, information quantity tends to replace information quality. Any conclusion depends crucially on the rate at which information quality improves or decays with respect to the discounting incentives. JEL: C73, D82, D86. KEYWORDS: Repeated Games, Frequent Monitoring, Information Quantity, Information Quality. |
| Keywords: | Jocs, Teoria de, Teoria de la informació (Economia), Contractes -- Aspectes econòmics, 33 - Economia, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urv:wpaper:2072/260962 |
| By: | Brandon Dupont; Joshua Rosenbloom |
| Abstract: | The U.S. Civil War and emancipation wiped out a substantial fraction of southern wealth. The prevailing view of most economic historians, however, is that the southern planter elite was able to retain its relative status despite these shocks. Previous studies have been hampered, however, by limits on the ability to link individuals between census years, and have been forced to focus on persistence within one or a few counties. Recent advances in electronic access to the Federal Census manuscripts now make it possible to link individuals without these constraints. We exploit the ability to search the full manuscript census to construct a sample that links top wealth holders in 1870 to their 1860 census records. Although there was an entrenched southern planter elite that retained their economic status, we find evidence that the turmoil of 1860s opened greater opportunities for mobility in the South than was the case in the North, resulting in much greater turnover among wealthy southerners than among comparably wealthy northerners. |
| JEL: | N11 N31 N91 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22184 |
| By: | Woldeyohanes, Tesfaye Berhanu; Heckelei, Thomas; Surry, Yves |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how off-farm income affects crop output market participation decision and marketed surplus of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. A double-hurdle model is estimated using three waves of panel data from Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (ERHS). The article controls for unobserved heterogeneity using correlated random effect procedure and potential endogeneity of off-farm income using a control function approach. Results show that off-farm income has no significant influence on household output market participation. But conditional on positive market participation, each additional earning from off-farm work has negative and statistically significant effect on marketed surplus. This indicates farmers use earnings from off-farm source rather for consumption purpose than as a source of liquidity to invest in agricultural production and increase marketable surplus. Our result has policy implications that expanding higher earning rural enterprises through capacity building and human capital investment is vital. This could improve the returns to labor for off-farm work participating land-poor households in the process of smallholder agricultural commercialization. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, International Development, |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211895 |
| By: | Nicoletta Baskiewicz (Technical University of Częstochowa, Faculty of Management); Aneta Pachura (Technical University of Częstochowa, Faculty of Management) |
| Abstract: | The dynamic nature of the socio – economic environment and a necessity to improvement of management systems of today's organizations leads to undertaking a research on an importance of organizational social potential and its dimensions. The theory of management science has a rich set of management concepts related to social potential. Very valuable concepts seem to be highly exposing the subjectivity and individuality of employees in organization. The aim of this study is an attempt to interpret the concept of empowerment from the perspective of this research on organization, and its potential of innovation.The study was focused on basic interpretation and systematization of the empowerment concept. The text indicated selected properties of empowerment such as engagement, initiative, creativity, autonomy, freedom, responsibility, efficiency etc. Further conceptualization of the concept was carried out from the managerial perspective as well as psychological dimension. On this background the study distinguished attributes and possibility of application of the empowerment concept in the area of development of the innovation potential of the organization. Among others, it was pointed out, for example: the space of social relationships, social awareness, organizational climate, active and free information exchange, access to knowledge, creation of new knowledge, organizational roles, flexibility and decentralization of organizational structures. |
| Keywords: | empowerment, innovativeness, organization, management, conceptualisation |
| JEL: | M51 O15 O31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3506141 |
| By: | Takeshima, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Growths of mechanization service supply have been considered generally frictionless outside Africa South of Sahara (SSA). However, the dominance of large tractors that are sparsely populated in SSA countries like Nigeria today suggests significant imperfections in tractor hiring service market due to technology indivisibility and low spatial mobility. Empirically testing market imperfections for scale-biased technologies like tractors has been challenging, partly due to the difficulty of separating the effect of marginal technology adoptions from intensive technology adoptions that potentially generate scale effects. We fill this knowledge gap by applying covariate matching, ordinary propensity score matching, as well as generalized propensity score matching methods to Nigerian household data. Tractor hiring service market in Nigeria is found imperfect, potentially due to the supply-side constraints. The effect of this imperfection is also sizeable; in the case of Nigeria, overcoming this imperfection can potentially increase farm households’ income by as much as 30%. This effect is from the marginal adoption of tractors alone, even without the potential scale effects from intensive tractor use upon adoption. |
| Keywords: | International Development, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211937 |
| By: | Richard G. Newell; Yifei Qian; Daniel Raimi |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and inter-governmental organizations based on methods from “Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges” (Newell and Qian 2015). These projections agree that global energy consumption growth in the coming 25 years is likely to be substantial, with the global demand center shifting from Europe and North America to Asia, led by China and India. Most projections show energy demand growing as much or more in absolute terms to 2040 than previous multi-decade periods, although the rate of growth will be slower in percentage terms. Total consumption of fossil fuels grows under most projections, with natural gas gaining market share relative to coal and oil. The North American unconventional gas surge has expanded to tight oil more rapidly than anticipated, with implications for global oil markets that are still unfolding. Renewable electricity sources are also set to expand rapidly, while the prospects for nuclear power are more regionally varied. Global carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise under most projections and, unless additional climate policies are adopted, are more consistent with an expected rise in average global temperature of close to 3°C or more, than international goals of 2°C or less. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q43 Q47 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22075 |
| By: | Ahmed, Osama; Serra, Teresa |
| Abstract: | This study assesses price transmission along the Egyptian tomato food marketing chain in the period that followed the Arab Spring, which accentuated economic precariousness in Egypt. Static and time-varying copula methods are used for this purpose. Results suggest a positive link between producer, wholesaler and retailer tomato prices. Such positive dependence is characterized by asymmetries during extreme market events, that lead price increases to be transferred more completely along the supply chain than price declines. |
| Keywords: | food prices, asymmetric price transmission, dependence analysis, static and time-varying copula, Financial Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, C5, Q11, Q12, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212523 |
| By: | Pahnke, André |
| Abstract: | Bei der Diskussion um die Finanzierung bzw. Eigenkapitalausstattung mittelständischer Unternehmen rücken gegenwärtig die Möglichkeiten zur Fremdkapitalaufnahme, neue Finanzierungsformen und damit die sich verändernden Rahmenbedingungen bei der Kreditvergabe an kleine und mittlere Unternehmen in den Vordergrund. Verschiedenste Institutionen veröffentlichen in diesem Zusammenhang, teilweise regelmäßig, entsprechende Studienergebnisse und Kennzahlen(-berichte). Der vorliegende Beitrag gibt daher einen kurzen Überblick über die Informations- und Datenquellen, die in den letzten Jahren häufig zur Erklärung des Finanzierungsverhaltens bzw. der Finanzierungsstrukturen mittelständischer Unternehmen herangezogen wurden. |
| Abstract: | The ongoing discussing on financing and the equity base of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Germany increasingly focuses on potential sources of debt financing, new methods of funding, and thereby on the general framework for bank borrowings to SMEs. In this context, various institutions publish relevant studies, reports, and key figures - to some extent on a regular basis. Therefore, the present paper provides a short overview of information and data sources that have been used in recent years to describe and explain the financing behaviour and financial structures of German SMEs. |
| Keywords: | Daten,Finanzierung,Mittelstand,KMU,Data,Finance,SME |
| JEL: | C80 G32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifmduf:16 |
| By: | Rakotoarisoa, Manitera A.; Fang, Cheng |
| Abstract: | Trade between China and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is characterized by China’s importing mining and extraction from SSA and SSA’s importing manufactured goods from China. We perform accounting and simulation exercises to analyze how trade policy and productivity shocks will reduce SSA's dependency on raw material export to China. Scenarios include tariff elimination by China, common external tariff in SSA, and free regional trade in SSA. We also include shifts in labour productivity in SSA’s agriculture and manufacturing sectors and simulate technology spillover from SSA imports from China. Results show that tariff elimination by China increases SSA’s employment and welfare. Raising tariffs on manufactured goods from China reduces welfare and employment by harming consumers and the agriculture sectors dependent on intermediate goods from China. Increase in labour productivity and technical progress in SSA’s manufacturing sectors improve welfare but will not alter the high share of mining and extraction export to China. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212695 |
| By: | Dan Acland; Matthew R. Levy |
| Abstract: | We implement a gym-attendance incentive intervention and elicit subjects' predictions of their postintervention attendance. We find that subjects greatly overpredict future attendance, which we interpret as evidence of partial naiveté with respect to present bias. We find a significant postintervention attendance increase, which we interpret as habit formation, and which subjects appear not to predict ex ante. These results are consistent with a model of projection bias with respect to habit formation. Neither the intervention incentives, nor the small posttreatment incentives involved in our elicitation mechanism, appear to crowd out existing intrinsic motivation. The combination of naiveté and projection bias in gym attendance can help to explain limited take-up of commitment devices by dynamically inconsistent agents, and points to new forms of contracts. Alternative explanations of our results are discussed. |
| Keywords: | behavioral economics; experimental economics; habit formation; present bias; projection bias |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66147 |
| By: | GÖKHAN ÖZDAMAR (Süleyman Demirel University) |
| Abstract: | Main objective of this study is to analyze the relationships between the current account balance and selected major macroeconomic variables in Turkish economy. In this respect ARDL-Bounds testing approach is applied. Results of the study related to the long-run show that the international terms of trade is a strong explanatory variable of the current account balance of Turkey. This result implies that Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) hypothesis is valid for Turkey. Findings reveal that also foreign trade balance has a strong effect on the current account balance of Turkey while the gross domestic product is found to be statistically significant but the effect level is quite low. Domestic interest rate and the real effective exchange rate variables are found to be statistically insignificant in the long-run. Error correction model results for the short-run reveal that current account balance of Turkey is mostly affected from the lagged value of itself, from foreign trade balance and also from the lagged value of real effective exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | Current Account Balance; Turkey; ARDL-Bounds testing |
| JEL: | F32 F40 F41 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3506081 |
| By: | Sónia Araújo; Dorothee Flaig |
| Abstract: | Brazil remains a fairly closed economy, with small trade flows relative to its share of world income. This paper explores the effects of three possible policy reforms to strengthen Brazil’s integration into global trade: a reduction in import tariffs, less local content requirements and a full zero-rating of exports in indirect taxes. A simulation analysis using the OECD Multi-Region Trade CGE model suggests that current policies are holding back exports, production and investment in Brazil. The model simulations suggest significant scope for trade policy reforms to strengthen industrial development and export competitiveness. Results also show that the expansion of investment and production would be accompanied by significant employment gains. Moreover, employment growth is higher for low-skilled occupations, implying that a major trade and tax policy reform aiming at liberalising trade flows would particularly help those at the lower end of the income distribution. L'impact de la libéralisation du commerce au Brésil : Modélisation EGC et simulations Le Brésil reste une économie relativement fermée, avec des flux commerciaux faibles par rapport à sa part dans le revenu mondial. Ce document examine les effets de trois reformes politiques qui permettraient au Brésil de renforcer son intégration dans le commerce mondial: une baisse des barrières tarifaires à l’importation, une réduction des exigences en contenu local et un taux zéro sur les impôts indirects pour les exportations. L’analyse de simulations utilisant le modèle EGC de commerce Multi-Régions de l'OCDE suggère que les politiques actuelles freinent les exportations, la production et l’investissement au Brésil. Les simulations du modèle suggèrent un rôle important pour des réformes de la politique commerciale visant à renforcer le développement industriel et la compétitivité des exportations. Les résultats suggèrent aussi que l'expansion de l’investissement et de la production serait accompagnée par des gains d’emplois significatifs. En outre, la croissance de l'emploi serait plus élevée pour les emplois peu qualifiés, ce qui implique qu’une réforme majeure des politiques commerciales et fiscales visant à libéraliser le commerce aiderait particulièrement les populations aux plus faibles revenus. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, CGE modelling, global value chains, politique commerciale, chaînes de valeur mondiales, Modélisation EGC |
| JEL: | F13 F47 F61 F62 F66 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1295-en |
| By: | Luis Miguel Rodrigo (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte); Aurora Sánchez (Departamento de Economia, Universidad Catolica del Norte) |
| Abstract: | Existe una carencia de trabajos sociológicos sobre la Educación Superior Chilena, especialmente de los enmarcados en las teorías de la reproducción social. Este artículo estudia, desde la teoría de Bourdieu, la trayectoria escolar de los estudiantes de la Universidad Católica del Norte (Chile). Se identifican cuatro momentos vitales de dicha trayectoria, I) la elección del tipo de colegio, II) los resultados en la prueba de acceso a la universidad, III) la elección del tipo de carrera y VI) el éxito en dicha carrera, que se analizan mediante árboles de clasificación y regresión, y coeficientes de localización, con información correspondiente al periodo 2002-2007. Los resultados muestran cómo el sistema escolar transforma el origen social de los estudiantes en atributos individuales, y cómo continúan sus efectos después de ingresar en la universidad. |
| Keywords: | trayectoria escolar, origen social, reproducción social, elección racional |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201603 |
| By: | Andrietti, Vincenzo |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits a unique universal educational policy - implemented in most German states between 2001 and 2008 - that compressed the academic-track high school curriculum into a (oneyear) shorter time span, thereby increasing time of instruction and share of curriculum taught per grade. Using 2000-2012 PISA data and a quasi-experimental approach, I estimate the impacts of this intensified curriculum on cognitive skills. I find robust evidence that the reform improved, on average, the reading, mathematical, and scientific literacy skills acquired by academic-track ninthgraders upon treatment. However, I also provide evidence that the reform widened the gap in student performance with respect to parental migration background and student ability. Finally, although the reform did not affect, on average, high school grade retention, I find that the latter increased for students with parental migration background. Taken together, these findings suggest that moving to a compressed high-school curriculum did not compromise and benefited, on average, students' cognitive skills. However, they also raise equity concerns that policy-makers should be aware of. |
| Keywords: | Remedial education; Grade retention; Academic-track high school; Cognitive skills; Instructional time; Learning intensity; Intensified curriculum; G8 reform |
| JEL: | D04 I28 I21 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:22880 |
| By: | Piyaluk Chutubtim (Chiang Mai University) |
| Abstract: | Dam construction has long provided valuable economic benefits to Thailand in distributing low-priced electricity and supporting low-income farmers by providing them with free-flowing irrigation water; this promotes domestic consumption and investment. Even though many benefits are expected from dam construction, a dam project needs to be carefully evaluated using costbenefit analysis (CBA) before approval. Decision-makers have to review the negative effects of the construction and operation of a dam. These effects are sometimes difficult to measure in monetary terms. Each impact requires the use of particular techniques to determine their monetary value; the choice depends on the characteristics of a particular impact and what relevant information is available. The primary data technique incorporates the market price approach, revealed preferences approach, and stated preferences approach. The secondary data technique is also called the benefits transfer method. An erroneously-conducted CBA can lead policy-makers to make a wrong decision on a project. Therefore, in order to provide policy-makers with accurate information and right recommendations on a project alternative, an analyst has to identify all potential project impacts, apply appropriate valuation methods and select the correct criteria. This report provides basic guidelines for analysts to conduct a proper CBA on dam projects and includes a case study of the Kwae Nai Dam in Thailand that will give useful insight into the practical applications of a CBA. |
| Keywords: | Guidelines,Cost-benefit Analysis,Dam,Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016064 |
| By: | Michael Fritsch; Alina Sorgner; Michael Wyrwich; Evguenii Zazdravnykh |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the persistence of entrepreneurship in the region of Kaliningrad between 1925 and 2010. During this time period the area experienced a number of extremely disruptive shocks including; devastation caused by World War II, a nearly complete replacement of the native German population by Soviets, and 45 years under an antientrepreneurial socialist economic regime followed by a shock-type transition to a market economy. Nevertheless, we find a surprisingly high level of persistence of industry-specific self-employment rates in the districts of the Kaliningrad region. Our analysis suggests that persistence of entrepreneurship is higher in regions with a history of successful entrepreneurship. That is, in regions where a specific industry was particularly efficient and entrepreneurial activity was especially pronounced. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, regional culture, persistence |
| JEL: | L26 N94 P25 P5 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1607 |
| By: | Weeks, Wes; Popp, Michael; Salmeron-Cortasa, Montserrat; Purcell, Larry |
| Abstract: | Due to the long growing season for soybean production, producers in the Mid-southern US can plant from late March to June. They also have a range of maturity group (MG) choices, affecting the length of the growing season, that are physiologically and economically viable. A producer’s decision of what to plant and when constitutes two potential decision variables that can be freely manipulated to not only maximize profit, but also reduce economic risk. Early maturing MG III and IV soybean cultivars planted early or mid-season typically are highest yielding and thereby the preferred choice of producers. However, planting part of a producer’s acreage at later dates and using later maturing MG VI soybeans may offer producers similar returns (as observed with early planting using early maturing cultivars) at a meaningfully reduced level of risk. |
| Keywords: | soybean, maturity group, portfolio theory, planting date, seasonality, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229873 |
| By: | Gautam, Tej; Paudel, Krishna |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the demand for natural gas and electricity in residential, commercial and industrial sectors of the Northeastern United States comprising seven states using annual state-level panel data over the period between 1997and 2011. It applies panel unit root and cointegration tests and then estimates the parameters using four alternative estimators: dynamic fixed effect (DFE), mean group (MG), pooled mean group (PMG) and Common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG). PMG showed better performance compared to estimators obtained from other three models. The panel unit root and cointegration tests show that the series are I (1) and variables are cointegrated. The estimated results show that long-run price elasticity for natural gas in residential, commercial and industrial sectors are -0.05, -0.96 and -0.20; and for electricity they are -0.11, 0.10 and -2.07 respectively. The corresponding long-run income elasticities are 3.05, 0.86, & 0.07 for natural gas and 0.93, 0.53 and 0.18 for electricity, respectively. The cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) have positive effects on demand for electricity and natural gas in all but not for electricity in industrial sector. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Natural gas, Residential, Commercial, Industrial, PMG, Panel data, cointegration., Consumer/Household Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q41, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230114 |
| By: | Sinitsa Arseniy (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
| Abstract: | Under modern conditions in a view of the necessity of the efficient money spending and of the monitoring of the estimation of the demographic policy efficiency to create the costs structure for a child classification is highly up to date. The aim of the article is to investigate the cost for a child and to assign the place of the spendings for preschool child care and character building within the costs for a child classification framework. To achieve the aim, we identified the child care performers and their functions. Then we examined the existed cost for a child classifications for each performer. A family is the most important one, that’s why the special emphasis was focused on its spendings. We specified possible approaches for estimating the costs for a child while a special emphasis on the spendings for child care and character building was laid. As a result, a functional classification that allows to specificate such spendings was chosen. To manage social and economic processes better, to develop the preschool institutions system and to develop more effective fertility and labour policies the more active investigation of the spendings for child care and the classification of such spendings are needed. Also to consider child care as labour is very important because this will allow to increase its reputation and the quality of life for families with children. |
| Keywords: | spendings for children, child care, labour, functions, classification |
| JEL: | J17 H61 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0027 |
| By: | Serigne Diop (CEDoc - Centre des Etudes Doctorales Economie, Gestion et Droit - Université Hassan II Casablanca - UH2C (MOROCCO)) |
| Abstract: | Plusieurs raisons peuvent amener une organisation à décider d’utiliser un outil de gestion au détriment d’un autre. Ceci peut être motivé entre autres par la recherche de gain d’efficacité, le perfectionnement du système de management et de gestion des risques, l’effet de mode, le mimétisme, etc. C’est dans cette perspective qu’une enquête par questionnaire auprès de 62 grandes et moyennes entreprises a essayé d’identifier les raisons qui poussent les entreprises sénégalaises à adopter ou à rejeter les innovations en contrôle de gestion. |
| Keywords: | Senegalese companies,Adoption perspectives,Innovation,Management control,Perspectives d'adoption,Contrôle de gestion,Entreprises sénégalaises |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01300910 |
| By: | Baldermann, Claudia; Salvati, Nicola; Schmid, Timo |
| Abstract: | Geographically weighted small area methods have been studied in literature for small area estimation. Although these approaches are useful for the estimation of small area means efficiently under strict parametric assumptions, they can be very sensitive to outliers in the data. In this paper, we propose a robust extension of the geographically weighted empirical best linear unbiased predictor (GWEBLUP). In particular, we introduce robust projective and predictive small area estimators under spatial non-stationarity. Mean squared error estimation is performed by two different analytic approaches that account for the spatial structure in the data. The results from the model-based simulations indicate that the proposed approach may lead to gains in terms of efficiency. Finally, the methodology is demonstrated in an illustrative application for estimating the average total cash costs for farms in Australia. |
| Keywords: | bias correction,geographical weighted regression,mean squared error,model-based simulation,spatial statistics |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20165 |
| By: | Van den Broeck, Goedele; Van Hoyweghen, Kaat; Maertens, Miet |
| Abstract: | The rapid transformation of the agri-food sector in developing countries has created many rural off-farm employment opportunities, especially for women. There is a growing concern about worker welfare and employment conditions in agri-food and export sectors but empirical evidence on this issue is scant. We analyze contractual preferences of female workers in the horticultural export sector in Senegal. We use a discrete choice experiment to assess women’s preferences for a labor contract and employ a latent class model to capture preference heterogeneity. We find that women have a high willingness to accept a labor contract and that differences in preferences for contract attributes can be explained by women’s empowerment status. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment, employment preferences, rural off-farm employment, horticultural exports, Senegal, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, J43, Q12, Q17, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211925 |
| By: | Vera Rocha (Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Mirjam van Praag (Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Timothy B. Folta (University of Connecticut, United States); Anabela Carneiro (University of Porto, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | The founder (team)’s human capital is a vital determinant of future firm performance. This is a stylized fact. Less is known about the effect of the human capital of the initial workforce hired by the founder(s). We study the performance consequences of a founder’s choice of the initial workforce’s human capital (quantity and quality), besides the human capital of the founder(s). The analysis is based on matched employer-employee data and covers about 5,300 startups in manufacturing industries founded by individuals coming from employment between 1992 and 2007. We acknowledge that initial hiring decisions are endogenous and correlated with the human capital of the founders and the ownership structure of startups (single founder versus team of founders). Given the stickiness of initial choices, human capital decisions at entry turn out to be a close to irreversible matter with significant implications for post-entry survival and growth of the firm. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; entrepreneurship; startups; firm performance |
| JEL: | J24 L26 M13 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160030 |
| By: | Lorenzo Cappellari; Stephen P. Jenkins |
| Abstract: | We contribute new evidence about earnings and labour market volatility in Britain over the period 1992–2008, for women as well as men, and provide transatlantic comparisons (Most research about volatility refers to earnings volatility for US men.). Earnings volatility declined slightly for both men and women over the period but the changes are not statistically significant. When we look at labour market volatility, i.e. also including individuals with zero earnings in the calculations, there is a statistically significant decline in volatility for both women and men, with the fall greater for men. Using variance decompositions, we demonstrate that the fall in labour market volatility is largely accounted for by changes in employment attachment rates. We show that volatility trends in Britain, and what contributes to them, differ from their US counterparts in several respects. |
| Keywords: | Earnings instability; Earnings volatility; Labour market volatility |
| JEL: | C46 J41 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:56667 |
| By: | Luca Marcolin; Sébastien Miroudot; Mariagrazia Squicciarini |
| Abstract: | This work addresses the role of global value chains (GVCs), workforce skills, ICT, innovation and industry structure in explaining employment levels of routine and non-routine occupations. The analysis encompasses 28 OECD countries over the period 2000-2011. It relies on a new country-specific measure of routine intensity built using individual-level information from the OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) survey, as well as on new industry-level Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators of offshoring and domestic outsourcing. The results suggest that employment in all types of occupations positively relate to innovation. With respect to offshoring patterns, a positive correlation is observed between the offshoring of inputs and domestic outsourcing with more routine-intensive jobs. Taken together, the results point to the existence of complex interactions between the routine content of occupations, skills, technology and trade, which do not allow for a neat identification of “winners” and “losers” in a GVC context. |
| Keywords: | employment, outsourcing, technology, global value chains, offshoring |
| JEL: | F16 F23 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:187-en |
| By: | Mulwa, Chalmers; Marenya, Paswel; Rahut, Dil Bahadur; Kassie, Menale |
| Abstract: | Located in southern Africa, Malawi is a country increasingly facing numerous climate-related stressors including droughts and floods. Adaptation to these stressors is critical to the sustainability of the farming systems in the country. Using household and plot level data collected in 2011, we implement a multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of farmer adaptation behavior to climatic risks. The ex-ante adaptation practices considered by farmers include: planting drought, disease and pest tolerant varieties, early planting, soil and water conservation and crop diversification. We find that plot characteristics, credit constraints and availability of climate-related information explain the adoption of several of these adaptation practices. We also find that even when financial limitations are binding, availing climate-related information still motivate farmers to adapt. Policy effort to build resilience among rural farming systems should focus on extension education and information delivery with special emphasis on climate risks information and associated adaptation mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Climate risks, Adaptation, Multivariate probit, Smallholder farmers, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212511 |
| By: | Rhenals M., Remberto; Montoya A., Jaime; Gomez Muñoz, Wilman |
| Abstract: | La desaceleración que registra el crecimiento económico colombiano desde hace aproximadamente año y medio, apenas ha comenzado a reflejarse en los indicadores más visibles del mercado laboral. Este probable “desacople” entre los desempeños de la actividad económica y el mercado laboral se ha presentado en otras ocasiones, por lo menos, en la última década y media. Como se sabe, la reciente disminución sostenida del crecimiento del PIB se inicia desde principios de 2014 como resultado principalmente de la abrupta caída de los precios internacionales del petróleo y la reducción de los flujos de capitales hacia el país: La tasa de crecimiento anual del PIB trimestral pasó de 6,5% en el primer trimestre de 2014 a 3,0% en el segundo trimestre de 2015. Y todo parece mostrar, según varios analistas, que no ha tocado fondo. |
| Keywords: | Mercado laboral, empleo, producto interno bruto |
| Date: | 2015–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000099:014556 |
| By: | Uluc, Arzu; Wieladek, Tomasz |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of changes to bank-specific capital requirements on mortgage loan supply with a new loan-level dataset containing all mortgages issued in the UK between 2005Q2 and 2007Q2. We find that a rise of a 100 basis points in capital requirements leads to a 5.4% decline in individual loan size by bank. Loans issued by competing banks rise by roughly the same amount, which is indicative of credit substitution. Borrowers with an impaired credit history (verified income) are not (most) affected. This is consistent with origination of riskier loans to grow capital by raising retained earnings. No evidence for credit substitution of non-bank finance companies is found. |
| Keywords: | Capital requirements; credit substitution.; loan-level data; mortgage market |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11214 |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Filipski, Mateusz; Chen, Kevin Z.; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | We shed light on poverty dynamics by analyzing a census-like survey of three villages of Guizhou province during 2004 to 2011. While the absolute poverty rate is decreasing sharply in the sample, households are highly vulnerable to shocks, and rates of entry or re-entry into poverty are high. We decompose measures of wealth to reveal the proximate causes of poverty entry or exit, then use logistic regression and multivariate hazard models to look for underlying causes. Agricultural income contributes most to changes in poverty status. Poverty entry and exit are both related to household characteristics, assets, and social capital. Rural-urban migration strongly increases the probability of poverty exit, as do government transfers. The frequent changes in poverty status highlight the importance of improving policy targeting and/or implementing village-wide poverty-alleviation strategies. |
| Keywords: | poverty dynamics, hazard model, China, lagging region, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212604 |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (East Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The multimodal interchange hub is vital for achieving a sustainable transport system. It stitches together diff erent modes of transport and serves as the gateway to mobility and greater accessibility. This publication presents planning and design ideas to improve interchanges and the overall journey experience of passengers. It highlights how the hub can be a place not only of transport connection, but also of social interaction. The lessons and recommendations presented here may be used to build the next generation of multimodal hubs in the People’s Republic of China. |
| Keywords: | transport system, transport connection, multimodal hub, interchange hubs, railway station, traffic facilities, subway station, high-speed rail, People's Republic of China |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157691 |
| By: | S. Nageeb Ali; Roland Bénabou |
| Abstract: | We analyze the costs and benefits of using social image to foster virtuous behavior. A Principal seeks to motivate reputation-conscious agents to supply a public good. Each agent chooses how much to contribute based on his own mix of public-spiritedness, private signal about the value of the public good, and reputational concern for appearing prosocial. By making individual behavior more visible to the community the Principal can amplify reputational payoffs, thereby reducing free-riding at low cost. Because societal preferences constantly evolve, however, she knows only imperfectly both the social value of the public good (which matters for choosing her own investment, matching rate or legal policy) and the importance attached by agents to social esteem and sanctions. Increasing publicity makes it harder for the Principal to learn from what agents do (the “descriptive norm”) what they really value (the “prescriptive norm”), thus presenting her with a tradeoff between incentives and information aggregation. We derive the optimal degree of privacy/publicity and matching rate, then analyze how they depend on the economy’s stochastic and informational structure. We show in particular that in a fast-changing society (greater variability in the fundamental or the image-motivated component of average preferences), privacy should generally be greater than in a more static one. |
| JEL: | D62 D64 D82 H41 K42 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22203 |
| By: | Zhong, Hua; Hu, Wuyang |
| Abstract: | Land premium added by the increase of environmental quality could motivate farmers to adopt Best Management Practices (BMPs). Local community also demands nearby farms to abate agricultural pollution and implement BMPs. Our study attempts to examine whether land values and local community characteristics can influence BMP adoption in addition to the socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We aggregate our survey data on BMP adoption conducted between 2011 and 2012 in Kentucky and the public data by using the geographic information, and then use Probit models to estimate choices of BMP adoption. In the model, we measure the land value effect by using percentage differences of farmland values between 2007 and 2012, and approximate the local community characteristic effect by including rural effect, urban effect, residential effect, and local farm business effect. Results show that increasing land values would motivate farmers to adopt additional riparian buffers; the local equine inventory have the positive impact on farmers’ future adoption of animal fences and nutrient management; farms located at the rural communities are less likely to fence off animal from water resources. |
| Keywords: | best management practice, land value, local community, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q52, Q56, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229854 |
| By: | Nguyen Quoc Chinh (Hanoi Agricultural University) |
| Abstract: | This case study generally aimed to assess the local people’s adaptation experiences and strategies to cope with SLR and draw lessons learned from the past to help other communes prepare for SLR. The specific objectives were to collect socioeconomic data to help assess adaptive capacity; document coping/adaptation strategies as regards flooding/storm surges; and determine lessons learned from past experiences to help other communities and households prepare for SLR and its related events. The study took place in Giao Thien commune, Giao Thuy district, Nam Dinh province, Red River Delta. A total of 99 households from three household groups were selected as survey respondents. The SLR was accounted using gauging station data, direct interview of local households and authority, and observation of the shoreline. The SLR awareness of local households, the negative impacts of SLR and its related events, and the lessons learned were determined through direct interview of selected households, local authorities, and observation of households’ practices. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, sea level rise, Red River Delta |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:tpaper:tp201604t2 |
| By: | David GÓMEZ LIZARAZÚ |
| Abstract: | El presente documento muestra el resultado de la implementación de la metodología Urban Heatlh Index (UHI) en Colombia. El UHI es una metodología estadística que permite medir desigualdades en resultados en salud involucrando medidas de nivel socioeconómico. Esta metodología ha sido desarrollada en la Organización Mundial de la Salud con apoyo de la Escuela de Salud Pública de Georgia State University. Por su flexibilidad, el UHI puede ser utilizado para realizar mediciones de desigualdad usando un abanico amplio de indicadores. En este documento se utiliza el UHI para analizar las desigualdades asociadas a la mortalidad infantil a nivel de departamento haciendo uso de la información disponible. Para el sistema de salud colombiano la medición de desigualdades es un tema particularmente importante dada la evolución de la cobertura en salud (que hoy alcanza cerca del 97% de los colombianos) y los desafíos futuros relacionados con el acceso y calidad de la prestación de servicios. Por último, el Plan Nacional de Desarrollo (PND) 2014-2018 “Todos por un nuevo país” estableció como uno de los objetivos para el cuatrenio “mejorar las condiciones de salud de la población y reducir las brechas de resultados en salud” por lo que el presente documento también busca servir de apoyo en el seguimiento del PND. |
| Keywords: | Urban Health Index, desigualdad salud, mortalidad infantil |
| JEL: | I10 I14 |
| Date: | 2016–03–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000118:014470 |
| By: | Assaf Razin; Efraim Sadka |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the unique experience of Israel of a supply-side shock of skilled migration, and the concurrent rise in disposable income inequality, this paper develops a model which can explain the mechanism through which a supply-side shock of skilled migration can reshape the political-economy balance and the redistributive policies. First, it depresses the incentives for unskilled migrants to flow in, though they are still free to do so. Second, tax-transfer system becomes less progressive. Nonetheless, the unskilled native-born may well become better-off, even though they lose their political clout. |
| JEL: | F22 H0 J0 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22191 |
| By: | Ly, Nguyen; Henry, Kinnucan |
| Abstract: | A simple excess supply-demand model is used to determine the effects of income and population growth on the international price of fish, and on welfare in net exporting and importing regions of the world. Stochastic simulations of the model suggest fish price increases by between 0.25% and 1.07% for each 1% increase in world income, and by between 0.30% and 1.20% for each 1% increase in world population. Combining these elasticity estimates with the actual growth in income and population for 1999-2013, results suggests income and population growth together caused the world price of fish to rise by between 1.0% and 4.1% per year, for a best-bet estimate of 2.1% per year. The actual average annual rise in fish price over the last 12 years was 0.9%. This suggests supply growth due to aquaculture moderated to a significant extent price pressure due to demand growth. Higher fish prices increase welfare in net exporting countries at the expense of welfare in net importing countries. However, our results suggest net gains to producers and consumers in the two regions combined are positive. |
| Keywords: | fish price, fish trade, welfare, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, F1, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229892 |
| By: | Dr. Thomas Drosdowski (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Britta Stöver (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Marc Ingo Wolter (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research) |
| Abstract: | The concept of participation can be used to evaluate and assess socioeconomic changes. Most analysis that apply participation as reference point for socioeconomic development concentrate on the individual level. We try to give evidence for reasons and explanations for accomplished or changing individual participation using socio-economic modelling on the meso and macro level. The proposed indicator measures the existing and changing conditions of participation. First results show that participation conditions have shown a general upward tendency since 2006. The projection results suggest that the improvement of participation conditions continues till the end of 2016. Afterwards, the indicator will gradually decline reaching the zero line in 2021, which is mainly caused by a slow-down of the initially very positive economic situation. However, participation conditions are not likely to decline to a level as low as in the mid-2000s. |
| Keywords: | participation, indicator set, modelling, capability, socio-economic development |
| JEL: | E17 E2 I31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gws:dpaper:16-4 |
| By: | Wang, Xiaobing; Yamauchi, Futoshi; Otsuka, Keijiro; Huang, Jikun |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to examine the dynamics of land transactions, machine investments and the demand for machine services using farm panel data from China. Recently, China’s agriculture has experienced a large expansion of machine rentals and machine services provided by specialized agents, which has contributed to mechanization of agricultural production. The empirical results show that an increase in non-agricultural wage rates leads to expansion of self-cultivated land size. A rise in the proportion of non-agricultural income or the migration rate also increases the size of self-cultivated land. Interestingly, relatively educated farm households, however, decrease the size of self-cultivated land, which suggests that relatively less educated farmers tend to specialize in farming. The demand for machine services has also increased if agricultural wage and migration rate increased over time, especially among relatively large farms. The results on crop income also support complementarities between rented-in land and machine services (demanded), which implies that scale economies are arising in Chinese agriculture with mechanization and active land rental markets. |
| Keywords: | Wage growth, farm size, land rental, machine services, China, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, J31, Q12, Q15, |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212722 |
| By: | Fried, Stephie; Novan, Kevin; Peterman, William B. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the non-environmental welfare effects of introducing a revenue- neutral carbon tax policy. Using a life cycle model, we find that the welfare effects of the policy differ substantially for agents who are alive when the policy is enacted compared to those who are born into the new steady state with the carbon tax in place. Consistent with previous studies, we demonstrate that, for those born in the new steady state, the welfare costs are always lower when the carbon tax revenue is used to reduce an existing distortionary tax as opposed to being returned in the form of lump-sum payments. In contrast, during the transition, we find that rebating the revenue with a lump sum transfer is less costly than using the revenue to reduce the distortionary labor tax. Additionally, we find that the tax policy is substantially more regressive over the transition than in the steady state, regardless of what is done with the revenue. Overall, our results demonstrate that estimates of the non-environmental welfare costs of carbon tax policies that are based solely on the long-run, steady state outcomes may ultimately paint too rosy of a picture. Thus, when designing climate policies, policymakers must pay careful attention to not only the long-run outcomes, but also the transitional welfare costs and regressivity of the policy. |
| Keywords: | Carbon taxation ; overlapping generations |
| JEL: | E62 H21 H23 |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-38 |
| By: | Qu, Song; Heerink, Nico; Xia, Ying |
| Abstract: | The expropriation of farmland in China by local governments and the compensations paid to farmers are a major source of social conflicts. Using rural household survey data collected among 450 households in three provinces, this paper examines the impacts of compensation payments and different compensation modes on farmers’ satisfaction with the land compensation. The major findings are: (1) farmers’ satisfaction with the compensation depends not only on the size of the compensation but also on the gap between the compensation and the market value of the expropriated land; (2) the compensation amount positively affects farmers’ satisfaction when the social security compensation mode is used, but does not significantly affect farmers’ satisfaction when other modes are used. We conclude by discussing the policy relevance of our findings. |
| Keywords: | farmland expropriation, farmers’ satisfaction, compensation amount, compensation mode, Farm Management, International Development, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212702 |
| By: | DeAngelo, Gregory; Redford, Audrey |
| Abstract: | The United States is presently going through two substantial changes as it relates to drug use—more states are legalizing marijuana for the purposes of medical treatment and prescription opioid abuse is on the rise, resulting in heroin use rates nearly quadrupling over the past fifteen years. Historically, marijuana has been viewed as a gateway drug. Recent research suggests that medical marijuana legalization has decreased incidence of prescription and other opioid use and overdose. Examining heroin use data and other control variables, we test the effect of medical marijuana legalization on heroin use to determine whether medical marijuana is a gateway drug or substitute for heroin. We find that medical marijuana legalization has a generally negative, but statistically insignificant effect on heroin use rates. This suggests that while the legalization of medical marijuana will not lead to a reduction in heroin use, medical marijuana is not a gateway drug for heroin. |
| Keywords: | medical marijuana, heroin, gateway effect, Health Economics and Policy, Political Economy, I18, H75, C23, K32, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229981 |
| By: | Johnson, Michael; Dorosh, Paul |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the difficulties inherent with raising the rice import tariff in Nigeria given the problem of smuggling, and under such conditions, whether there is an optimal tariff rate that the Nigerian government can consider, especially when the effects are likely to vary by location. Using a spatial multi-market model for rice, results show that an optimal tariff rate of 37 percent does exist if smuggling cannot be controlled. The effects of higher tariffs can have different effects on price changes, trade flows, and ultimately, household welfare in different parts of the country. Most notably but not surprising, consumers in the south could face much higher welfare losses, especially in urban areas as prices increase more when imports flow in from the north. On the other hand, smuggled imports in the north actually help dampen the effect of the tariff on prices in this region and in the central region. |
| Keywords: | Optimal tariff, smuggling, spatial market equilibrium model, rice, Nigeria, Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211816 |
| By: | Dosis, Anastasios (Essec Business School, Economics Department) |
| Abstract: | I construct an efficient mechanism for competitive markets with adverse selection. In the mechanism, each company offers two menus of contracts: a public menu and a private menu. The union of all the public menus needs to be offered by every active company in the market. On the contrary, a private menu concerns only the company that offers it. I show that this simple mechanism reduces the set of profitable deviations to the extent that a pure-strategy equilibrium exists in every market with adverse selection. Furthermore, I characterise general, well-studied environments in which the set of equilibrium allocations coincides with the set of efficient allocations. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency; Adverse Selection; Competition Mechanism; Design; Existence; |
| JEL: | D02 D82 D86 |
| Date: | 2016–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-16004 |
| By: | Kan, Iddo; Kimhi, Ayal; Kaminski, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a structural econometric model of farmland allcoation that is linked to a market-level demand model. The farmland allocation model accounts for the presence of corner solutions in land-share decisions, which enables using disaggregated data for the estimation, and thereby allows treating prices as exogenous. Under partial equilibrium in the markets of vegetative products, the integrated model is then used to simulate the impacts of climate change on production, prices, agricultural profits and consimer surplus, making explicit the production responses of the micro units used for estimating the land-use model. We apply the method to Israeli data, and obtain negative projections of farm profits and consumer's surplus driven by climate change. Importantly, the effects of climate change on farm profits are significantly smaller compared with the case in which the price-feedback effects on agricultural supply are not accounted for. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211828 |
| By: | Balangue, Tonie O. |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the National Greening Program (NGP) process as implemented in the field and the environmental impacts. The municipalities of Sta. Cruz in Zambales, Basilisa in Dinagat Island, and Hinobaan in Negros Occidental were randomly selected from all the NGP sites. The methodology employed consisted of key informant interviews and focus group discussions for the survey, mapping, and planning (SMP); assessment of capability building, plantation quality assurance, seedling production, planting, and protection and maintenance; and actual impact measurements on the ground through sampling. Results showed that the required NGP processes were not fully complied with. However, the required survival rates of 85 percent were satisfied through replanting. The environmental impacts were gaining positive momentum through reduced temperature, soil build-up, soil fertility, soil moisture, wildlife, stumpage build-up, and carbon sequestration. Impacts on disaster risk reduction and climate change fell short due to lack of a suitable design. Recommendations to further improve NGP implementation include, among others, conduct of a full-blown SMP and feasibility study, compliance to required processes and standards, inclusion of a reforestation access road, linking reforestation to a business plan, and capability building of reforestation partners. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, National Greening Program (NGP), reforestation, survival rates, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation/mitigation |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:dp_2016-11 |
| By: | Delle Monache, (Bank of Italy); Ivan Petrella (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck; Bank of England); Fabrizio Venditti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the interaction among the common and country specific components for the inflation rates in twelve euro area countries through a factor model with time varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen over time and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to the idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis, is broadly a common phenomenon, since no significant cross country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks. |
| Keywords: | inflation, time-varying parameters, score driven models, state space models, dynamics factor models. |
| JEL: | E31 C22 C51 C53 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1515 |
| By: | Valmari, Nelli |
| Abstract: | Despite the fact that multiproduct firms constitute a considerable share of firms and account for an even greater share of production, virtually all production function estimates are based on the assumption that firms are single-product producers. The single-product assumption is made due to lack of data on input allocation across the various product lines multiproduct firms operate. I provide a method to estimate product-level production functions without observable input allocations. The empirical application and Monte Carlo simulations show that the single-product firm assumption leads to biased parameter and productivity estimates and overestimated productivity differences between firms. |
| Keywords: | Multiproduct firm, production function, productivity |
| JEL: | D24 L11 L25 |
| Date: | 2016–03–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:37 |
| By: | Alghalith, Moawia; Guo, Xu; Wong, Wing-Keung; Zhu, Lixing |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present two dynamic models of background risk. We first present a stochastic factor model with an additive background risk. Thereafter, we present a dynamic model of simultaneous (correlated) multiplicative background risk and additive background risk. In so doing, we use a general utility function. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic factor model, utility function |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70644 |
| By: | Subham Kailthya (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Uma Kambhampati (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | The public provision of healthcare is common in democracies. Yet very little is known as to how political-economic factors are related to healthcare service delivery. In this paper, we examine the role of electoral participation and political competition in affecting healthcare service delivery at the sub-national level in India. However, examining this issue is less than straightforward for many reasons: first, systematic biases in health perceptions and priming of the electorate to ambient health means that existing health conditions affect expectations of the electorate from the government regarding healthcare provision; secondly, elected leaders favor providing more visible public goods vis-a-vis less visible ones to increase their chances of electoral success. And third, weak enforcement mechanisms perpetuate conditions conducive to rent-seeking. All these factors, create conditions for the presence of multiple equilibria in public provision. A least squares approach that focuses on the conditional mean alone misses this important point. We therefore employ a quantile regression method that examines the impact of political-economic factors at different points along the conditional distribution to yield a more comprehensive picture. We find signiffcant differences in the impact of political-economic variables along the conditional distributions of healthcare access and system capacity variables. Our results are also consistent with the 'visibility-effect' hypothesis in public provision: elected leaders respond differently to political-market characteristics when the public good is more, rather than less, visible. We find that health care access improves with greater electoral participation and diminishes with political competition whereas, it is the opposite for system capacity. The combined effect however limits access and increases provision of system capacity. |
| Keywords: | local government spending, healthcare, quantile regressions, India |
| Date: | 2016–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2016-05 |
| By: | Molly Frean; Jonathan Gruber; Benjamin D. Sommers |
| Abstract: | Using a combination of subsidized premiums for Marketplace coverage, an individual mandate, and expanded Medicaid eligibility, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has significantly increased insurance coverage rates. We assessed the relative contributions to insurance changes of these different ACA provisions in the law’s first full year, using rating-area level premium data for all 50 states and microdata from the 2012-2014 American Community Survey. We employ a difference-in-difference-in-difference estimation strategy that relies on variation across income groups, areas, and years to causally identify the role of the ACA policy levers. We have four key findings. First, insurance coverage was only moderately responsive to price subsidies, but the subsidies were still large enough to raise coverage by almost one percent of the population; the coverage gains were larger in states that operated their own health insurance exchanges (as opposed to using the federal exchange). Second, the exemptions and tax penalty structure of the individual mandate had little impact on coverage decisions. Third, the law increased Medicaid coverage both among newly eligible populations and those who were previously eligible for Medicaid (the “woodwork” effect), with the latter driven predominantly by states that expanded their programs prior to 2014. Finally, there was no “crowdout” effect of expanded Medicaid on private insurance. Overall, we conclude that exchange premium subsidies produced roughly 40% of the ACA’s 2014 coverage gains, and Medicaid the other 60%, of which 2/3 occurred among previously-eligible individuals. |
| JEL: | H2 I13 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22213 |
| By: | Darmawan, Rivayani; Klasen, Stephan; Nuryartono, Nunung |
| Abstract: | Indonesia now has the highest deforestation rate in the world, with an average increase of about 47,600 ha per year. As a result, the nation is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world and is putting its rich biodiversity at risk. Although the literature discussing the political economy of Indonesia commercial's logging is growing, only a small amount focuses on the relation-ship between migration and deforestation. Migration may contribute to the forest cover change, as migrants often face serious constraints from the local residents in claiming the land, and thus tend to find new forest land which can be used as a means of living or converted into an agricultural planta-tion. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between recent in-migration and deforestation in Indonesia. By combining available population census data with the satellite image data MODIS, we find a significant positive relationship between migration and deforestation at the district level using a fixed effects panel econometric framework. The results also suggest that the expanding oil palm production is one significant driver for the fast disappearance of Indonesia's forest. |
| Keywords: | deforestation,migration,oil palm,Indonesia |
| JEL: | Q23 R14 J61 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:crc990:19 |
| By: | Michelacakis, Nickolas |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the outcomes of two three-stage games of two firms competing for quantity with managerial delegation. In fact, we prove that simultaneous choice of managers by the proprietors of the firms followed by Stackelberg-type competition is equivalent to sequential choice of managers followed by Cournot-type competition. We prove equivalence in a general setting, namely, when the duopolistic model is characterised by a non-linear inverse demand function. |
| Keywords: | Strategic delegation; Cournot competition; Stackelberg competition |
| JEL: | D43 L13 L21 |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71052 |
| By: | Silvia Adriana Peluffo Geronazzo (Universidad de la República) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of increased competition resulting from the creation of the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) on productivity, employment and wages for the Uruguayan manufacturing sector at the plant level. We use impact evaluation techniques, namely regressions and matching and difference-in-differences estimation for the period 1988-1995. One of the most robust findings is that increased trade liberalization seems to improve total factor productivity. Furthermore, we find reductions in employment driven mainly by the decrease in blue collars, increases in wages and a reduction in the wage gap between white and blue collars as a result of increased trade exposure. Thus, the increase in productivity along with the unemployment of unskilled workers would indicate a room for training, labour and social policies in order to countervail the negative impact of trade liberalization on less qualified workers. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, productivity, employment, wages. |
| JEL: | F13 O12 J2 J3 |
| Date: | 2016–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cjz:ca41cj:32 |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; Katarína Borovičková; Robert Shimer |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic model of transitions in and out of employment. A worker finds a job at an optimal stopping time, when a Brownian motion with drift hits a barrier. This implies that the duration of each worker's jobless spells has an inverse Gaussian distribution. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers in the parameters of this distribution and prove that the distribution of these parameters is identified from the duration of two spells. We use social security data for Austrian workers to estimate the model. We conclude that dynamic selection is a critical source of duration dependence. |
| JEL: | E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22188 |
| By: | Zaffou, Madiha; Campbell, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade there has been a move by many consumers to purchase locally grown products. Many studies have focused on food with limited studies examining plants. Utilizing a choice experiment in conjunction with latent class modeling with examine the impact of locally labeling and retail outlet on preference and willingness to pay for azaleas. Results indicate that only one of the latent classes, about 43% of the sample, valued locally labeling. Furthermore, the same class that valued local also preferred a nursery/greenhouse outlet over a home improvement center. Recommendations for the different retail outlets are given based on the results. |
| Keywords: | local labeling, retail outlet, plants, green industry, Agribusiness, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230056 |
| By: | Alice Goisis; Daniel Schneider (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Existing studies provide contradictory evidence concerning the association between child well-being and advanced maternal ages. A potential explanation for the lack of consensus are changes over time in the costs and benefits of giving birth at advanced ages. This is the first study that tests secular changes in the association between advanced maternal age and child health. We use data from four UK cohort studies covering births from 1958-2001, and use low birth weight as a marker for child health. We find that across successive birth cohorts, the association between advanced maternal age and low birth weight becomes progressively weaker, and is negligible statistically and substantively for the 2001 cohort. Among current cohorts advanced maternal age does not predict low birth weight, but if selection into older maternal ages had not changed, it would still predict strongly increased risk of giving birth to a low birth weight child. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-010 |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and Complutense University of Madrid, Spain); Yu-Chieh Wu (National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of industrial penetration and internet intensity for Taiwan manufacturing firms, and analyses whether the relationships are substitutes or complements. The sample observations are based on 153,081 manufacturing plants, and covers 26 two-digit industry categories and 358 geographical townships in Taiwan. The Heckman selection model is used to accommodate sample selectivity for unobservable data for firms that use the internet. The empirical results from two-stage estimation show that: (1) a higher degree of industrial penetration will not affect the probability that firms will use the internet, but will affect the total expenditure on internet intensity; (2) for two-digit industries, industrial penetration generally decreases the total expenditure on internet intensity; and (3) industrial penetration and internet intensity are substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Industrial penetration; Internet intensity; Sample selection; Incidental truncation |
| JEL: | D22 L60 |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160031 |
| By: | David H. Howard; Guy David; Jason Hockenberry |
| Abstract: | Physicians, acting in their role as experts, are often faced with situations where they must trade off personal and patient welfare. Physicians’ incentives vary based on the organizational environment in which they practice. We use the publication of a major clinical trial, which found that a common knee operation does not improve outcomes for patients with osteoarthritis, as an “informational shock” to gauge the impact of physicians’ agency relationships on treatment decisions. Using a 100% sample of procedures in Florida from 1998 to 2010, we find that publication of the trial reduced procedure volume, but the magnitude of the decline was smaller in physician-owned surgery centers. Incentives affected physicians’ reactions to evidence. |
| JEL: | I11 L21 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22171 |
| By: | Galasso, Vincenzo; Nannicini, Tommaso |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the differential response of male and female voters to compet-itive persuasion in political campaigns. We implemented a survey experiment during the (mixed gender) electoral race for mayor in Milan (2011), and a field experiment during the (same gender) electoral race for mayor in Cava de' Tirreni (2015). In both cases, a sample of eligible voters was randomly divided into three groups. Two were exposed to either a positive or a negative campaign by one of the opponents. The third-control-group received no electoral information. In Milan, the campaigns were administered online and consisted of a bundle of advertising tools (videos, texts, slogans). In Cava de' Tirreni, we implemented a large scale door-to-door campaign in collaboration with one of the candidates, randomizing positive vs. negative messages. In both experiments, stark gender differences emerge. Females vote more for the opponent and less for the incumbent when they are exposed to the opponent's positive campaign. Exactly the opposite occurs for males. These gender differences cannot be accounted for by gender identification with the candidate, ideology, or other observable attributes of the voters. |
| Keywords: | competitive persuasion.; gender di erences; political campaigns; randomized controlled trials |
| JEL: | D72 J16 M37 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11238 |
| By: | Erwan Pierre; St\'ephane Villeneuve; Xavier Warin |
| Abstract: | We consider a singular control problem with regime switching that arises in problems of optimal investment decisions of cash-constrained firms. The value function is proved to be the unique viscosity solution of the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. Moreover, we give regularity properties of the value function as well as a description of the shape of the control regions. Based on these theoretical results, a numerical deterministic approximation of the related HJB variational inequality is provided. We finally show that this numerical approximation converges to the value function. This allows us to describe the investment and dividend optimal policies. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1603.09049 |
| By: | KAWAGUCHI Daiji; OWAN Hideo; TAKAHASHI Kazuteru |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of promotion which features two different sources of asymmetric information—disutility of working long hours and on the job training (OJT) ability, or the ability to accumulate human capital on the job via learning by doing. The former is the worker's private information while the latter is the employer's. The firm decides whether or not to reveal its private information on the worker's OJT ability to him/her and how much training it provides to him/her. The worker chooses working hours to signal its commitment to the firm. We show that there always is a separating equilibrium in which the worker's working hours fully reveal his/her commitment level. The firm's optimal feedback policy depends on the nature of the training and learning, and the level of overtime pay. Not revealing private information on the worker's ability could be optimal for the firm under certain circumstances. We argue that two recent changes in the Japanese human resource management system—more selective training and an increasing share of occupations exempt from overtime work payment—may be making information revelation optimal for many firms. We further show that revealing information on the worker's ability tends to be optimal for the firm when many in the workforce have high disutility of working long hours. As such, if the firm can use different feedback policies for men and women, it may reveal its private information on the worker's ability only to women but not to men. If this is the case, there is a testable implication: the incidence of promotion should be more highly correlated with the number of hours worked for women than for men. Using personnel records of a large Japanese manufacturing firm, we find evidence in support of this prediction. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16060 |
| By: | Enriqueta Camps |
| Abstract: | Throughout the 19th century and until the mid-20th century, in terms of long-term investment in human capital and, above all, in education, Spain lagged far behind the international standards and, more specifically, the levels attained by its neighbours in Europe. In 1900, only 55% of the population could read; in 1950, this figure was 93%. This paper provides evidence that these conditions contributed to a pattern of slower economic growth in which the physical strength required for agricultural work, measured here through height, had a larger impact than education on economic growth. It was not until the 1970s, with the arrival of democracy, that the Spanish education system was modernized and the influence of education on economic growth increased. |
| Keywords: | employment structure, human capital, educational offer, economic growth |
| JEL: | I2 I1 J3 J8 N3 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:897 |
| By: | Mwiti, Florine; Okello, Julius; Munei, Kimpei |
| Abstract: | Hidden hunger, resulting from micronutrient deficiency, is a major problem in developing countries. Vitamin A is one of the micronutrients that are widely deficient in diets of many rural households. Biofortified staples that are rich in beta carotene, a precursor for vitamin A, such as Orange Fleshed Sweetpotato (OFSP) can contribute to solving this problem. Recent efforts have therefore focused on sensitizing farmers about the benefits of OSFP while at the same time supplying highly subsidized quality (i.e., pest and diseases free) OFSP planting materials (i.e., vines), usually fee or at heavily subsidized prices. This study uses seemingly unrelated regression technique and data from 481 farmers to assess the demand for quality OFSP vines and the factors affecting the demand for such vines. It finds high willingness to pay for quality OFSP vines shown by the high willingness to pay. Demand for quality vines is affected by number of children, age, tastes, preferences, yield and Income. The study concludes that demand for quality OFSP vines is high, but still lower than for white-fleshed varieties. It discusses implications of the findings. |
| Keywords: | Biofortified crops, quality planting materials, smallholder farmers, willingness to pay, Tanzania., Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, O30, O33, Q12, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212519 |
| By: | Borrás, Susana (Copenhagen Business School); Jordana, Jacint (IBEI & Universitat Pompeu Fabra) |
| Abstract: | In spite of recent advancements regarding regional innovation policy rationales and evidence, there are few analyses about the actual features of existing regional innovation policies. Nevertheless, a policy analysis perspective is important in order to recognise their distinctive patterns across regions, and to understand how rationales and evidence can be translated into policy-making. To this purpose, this paper develops a framework to study the extent to which regional innovation policies have changed during the past few years. Since the mid-2000s there has been an important development of innovation policy rationales, advocating for more specialisation; likewise, greater data availability at the regional level has allowed more sophisticated assessment of innovation performance. Finally, the crisis since 2008 has had ravaging effects in some regions, with job losses and severe economic sluggishness. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect transforming dynamics in regional innovation policies. Against this backdrop, the paper compares the institutional frameworks and budgetary priorities of four Spanish regions during the period 2001-2014: Catalonia, the Basque country, Galicia, and Andalusia. In so doing, it aims at studying the extent to which regional governments have readily addressed past and new challenges related to their regional innovation system, and if so, how. |
| Keywords: | Catalonia; Basque country; Galicia; Andalusia; regional innovation system; smart specialisation; policy change; regional advantage; policy mixes; policy instruments; regulatory governance; Spain |
| JEL: | E61 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2016_012 |
| By: | Stamatis Mantziaris (Postgraduate Program MBA in Agribusiness, Agricultural University of Athens); Stelios Rozakis (Environmental Engineering Department, Technical University of Crete) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impacts of the national implementation of the CAP reform 2014-20 and the fiscal policy derived from the Third Memorandum on the crop-mix decisions and the viability of business oriented Greek arable farming. A mathematical programming model is specified maximizing farmers' utility subject to agronomic, institutional and resource constraints. According to CAP reform scenario, reduction for cotton and durum wheat and on the other hand increase mainly for set aside and secondary for alfalfa cultivation areas is observed. Similar crop-mix is cultivated for the combined scenario of CAP and fiscal reform. Although gross margin decreases in both scenarios, almost all farms remain viable because 64% of their gross revenue is derived from the market. Consequently, farms are not sensitive enough in reform concerning reduction of subsidies but the combination with tax measures decrease the levels of viability significantly. |
| Keywords: | Utility function, mathematical programming, policy analysis, arable farming, Thessaly |
| JEL: | C61 Q12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aua:wpaper:2016-1 |
| By: | Stefano DellaVigna; Devin Pope |
| Abstract: | How much do different monetary and non-monetary motivators induce costly effort? Does the effectiveness line up with the expectations of researchers? We present the results of a large-scale real-effort experiment with 18 treatment arms. We compare the effect of three motivators: (i) standard incentives; (ii) behavioral factors like present-bias, reference dependence, and social preferences; and (iii) non-monetary inducements from psychology. In addition, we elicit forecasts by behavioral experts regarding the effectiveness of the treatments, allowing us to compare results to expectations. We find that (i) monetary incentives work largely as expected, including a very low piece rate treatment which does not crowd out incentives; (ii) the evidence is partly consistent with standard behavioral models, including warm glow, though we do not find evidence of probability weighting; (iii) the psychological motivators are effective, but less so than incentives. We then compare the results to forecasts by 208 experts. On average, the experts anticipate several key features, like the effectiveness of psychological motivators. A sizeable share of experts, however, expects crowd-out, probability weighting, and pure altruism, counterfactually. This heterogeneity does not reflect field of training, as behavioral economists, standard economists, and psychologists make similar forecasts. Using a simple model, we back out key parameters for social preferences, time preferences, and reference dependence, comparing expert beliefs and experimental results. |
| JEL: | C9 C93 D03 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22193 |
| By: | Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Wey, Christian |
| Abstract: | We analyze evidence production in merger control as a delegation problem under an inquisitorial and an adversarial competition policy system. Agents' incentives to produce evidence depend critically on the action set of the decision maker. In an inquisitorial system, allowing ex ante for a compromising remedy reduces incentives when compared with the case in which the merger can be either approved or prohibited. In an adversarial system, no such unambiguous results can be derived because the remedial option is never a best-fit for one of the parties. Comparison of both systems reveals that an adversarial system creates larger incentives when the conflict of interest between the involved parties is large. We relate our results to merger control in the US and the EU. |
| Keywords: | Remedies,Merger Control,Institutions |
| JEL: | L13 L40 K21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:217 |
| By: | MacDonald, Stephen; Skelly, Carol; Johnson, James; Meyer, Leslie |
| Abstract: | Following a global economic recession and nearly unprecedented price volatility, world cotton consumption in 2014/15 is forecast virtually unchanged from its level of 10 years earlier. A USDA model of world cotton consumption indicates that recent price changes and expectations for global income growth mean world cotton consumption could grow at a well-above-average rate in 2015/16, between 4.3 and 6.1 percent. A model of cotton’s share of fiber consumption indicates a small rise in cotton’s share can be expected, given recent trends in cotton and polyester prices, consistent with the expectation of higher world consumption. Uncertainties in the forecast are large since cotton’s share of world fiber consumption fell so sharply after 2007/08 and China initiated a price support system in 2010/11 that shifted cotton consumption between countries and drove ending stocks to unsustainable levels. China’s 2014/15 cotton policy reforms mean its textile industry could claim an above-average share of an increase in world cotton consumption. |
| Keywords: | Cotton, textiles, demand |
| JEL: | Q11 Q18 |
| Date: | 2105–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70907 |
| By: | David Tibor Teszar |
| Abstract: | Despite being a highly relevant event in the history of the Cold War, the 1956 Hungarian revolution remains underanalyzed from the perspective of the People’s Republic of China. The domestic policy changes in the PRC that were influenced by the Hungarian uprising are equally undertreated in scholarly literature. For these reasons this paper examines the PRC’s changing perception of the nature of the 1956 Hungarian revolution and answers the question whether the Chinese leadership influenced Nikita Khrushchev and the Kremlin elite in favour of an armed intervention in Budapest. The second half of the article assesses the impact of the Hungarian crisis on Mao’s domestic policies in the late 1950s, particularly to the Hundred Flowers campaign and the AntiRightist campaign. |
| Keywords: | 1956 Hungarian Revolution; Cold War; Hungarian History; Mao Zedong; China; Soviet Union. |
| JEL: | Y8 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpr:journl:2 |
| By: | Chu, Luke Yu-Wei; Gershenson, Seth |
| Abstract: | Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia have passed medical marijuana laws. Previous research shows that these laws increase marijuana use among adults. In this paper, we estimate the effects of medical marijuana laws (MML) on secondary and post-secondary students’ time use using time diaries from the American Time Use Survey. We apply a difference-in-differences research design and estimate flexible fixed effects models that condition on state fixed effects and state-specific time trends. We find that on average, part-time college students in MML states spend 42 fewer minutes on homework, 37 fewer minutes attending class, and 60 more minutes watching television than their counterparts in non-MML states. However, we find no effects of MMLs on secondary or full-time college students. These results provide evidence on the mechanisms through which marijuana use affects educational outcomes, young peoples’ behavioural responses to MMLs (and reduced costs of obtaining marijuana), and that the impact of MMLs on student outcomes are heterogeneous and stronger among disadvantaged students. |
| Keywords: | Time use, Medical marijuana, Unintended consequences, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:5046 |
| By: | Erhan Bayraktar; Zhou Zhou |
| Abstract: | We generalize the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) and hedging dualities in \cite{ZZ8} to the case where the investor can short American options. Following arXiv:1502.06681, we assume that the longed American options are divisible. As for the shorted American options, we show that the divisibility plays no role regarding arbitrage property and hedging prices. Then using the method of enlarging probability spaces proposed in arXiv:1604.05517, we convert the shorted American options to European options, and establish the FTAP and sub- and super-hedging dualities in the enlarged space both with and without model uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.01327 |
| By: | Görlitz, Katja; Tamm, Marcus |
| Abstract: | To increase employee participation in training activities, the German government introduced a large-scale training voucher program in 2008 that reduces training fees by half. Based on a randomized field experiment, this paper analyzes whether providing information about the existence and the conditions of the training voucher had an effect on actual training activities of employees. Because the voucher was newly introduced, only one-fourth of the eligible employees knew the voucher exists at the time of the experiment. The information intervention informed a random sample of eligible employees by telephone about the program details and conditions. The results indicate that the information significantly increased treated individuals´ knowledge of the program but had no effect on voucher take-up or participation in training activities. Additional descriptive analyses suggest that the reasons for these zero effects are that the demand for self-financed training is low and that liquidity constraints do not discourage many employees from training participation. |
| Keywords: | training participation,voucher,financial aid,randomized field experiment,information treatment |
| JEL: | I22 D83 H52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20166 |
| By: | Jedrzej Bialkowski (University of Canterbury); Ehud I. Ronn |
| Abstract: | This paper brings together two strands of the literature: Quantifying the impact of apocalyptic risk on capital markets, and the correct computation of the equity risk premium. For the former, we use events in four countries during the Second World War to discern markets' incorporation of information regarding the probability of an Armageddon for each country. We argue that past computations of the equity risk premium did not properly account for the financial implications of political collapse on property/civil/human rights. Accordingly, we show that past calculations overstated the equity risk premium. We provide an estimate of the equity risk premium that is corrected for lack of basic rights, demonstrating the important changes in this estimate over time. |
| Keywords: | Rare (“black swan") events; Equity premium; International political crises; property, civil, and human rights; World War II |
| JEL: | G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/14 |
| By: | Stefan Eichler; T. Plaga |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the link between political factors and sovereign bond holdings of US investors in 60 countries over the 2003-2013 period. We find that, in general, US investors hold more bonds in countries with few political constraints on the government. Moreover, US investors respond to increased uncertainty around major elections by reducing government bond holdings. These effects are particularly significant in democratic regimes and countries with sound institutions, which enable effective implementation of fiscal consolidation measures or economic reforms. |
| Keywords: | government bond portfolio; political factors; Treasury International Capital data; PPML, |
| JEL: | G11 G15 G18 H11 H63 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:14-16 |
| By: | Lommerud, Kjell Erik; Straume, Odd Rune; Vagstad, Steinar |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effects of different labour market policies - employment protection, unemployment benefts and payroll taxes - on job creation and technology choices in a model where firms are randomly matched with workers of different productivity and wages are determined by ex-post bargaining. The model is characterised by two intertwined sources of inefficiency, namely a matching externality and a hold-up externality associated with workers' bargaining strength. Results depend on the relative importance of the two externalities and on worker risk aversion. "Flexicurity", meaning low employment protection and generous unemployment insurance, can be optimal if the hold-up problem is relatively important and workers greatly value income security. |
| Keywords: | Technology adoption; job creation; employment protection; unemployment in- |
| JEL: | H21 J38 J65 O31 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11192 |
| By: | IIZUKA Toshiaki; UCHIDA Gyo |
| Abstract: | In many medical care markets with limited profit potential, firms often have little incentive to innovate. These include the markets for rare diseases, "neglected" tropical diseases, and personalized medicine. Governments and not-for-profit organizations attempt to promote innovation in such markets, but empirical evidence on the policy effect is limited. We study this issue by analyzing the impact of a demand-side policy in Japan, which reduces the cost sharing of patients with some rare and intractable diseases and attempts to establish and promote the treatment of those diseases. Using clinical trials data taken from public registries, we identify the effect of the policy using a difference-in-difference approach. We exploit the institutional detail that the diseases covered by the policy increased in an arbitrary fashion over time. We find that the demand-side policy increased firms' incentive to innovate: firm-sponsored new clinical trials increased by as much as 181% when covered by the policy. This result indicates that the demand-side policy can be an important part of innovation policies in markets with limited profit potential. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16036 |
| By: | Corey Garriott; Adrian Walton |
| Abstract: | In August 2012, the New York Stock Exchange launched the Retail Liquidity Program (RLP), a trading facility that enables participating organizations to quote dark limit orders executable only by retail traders. A Hasbrouck (1991) structural vector autoregression shows that the facility increased the information content of the order flow by distinguishing retail trades from relatively more informed trades. A differences-in-differences event study finds that the RLP launch impacted market quality. Stocks with substantial RLP activity experienced mildly improved relative bid-ask spreads, effective spreads, price impacts and return autocorrelations in both the RLP and non-RLP segments. |
| Keywords: | Financial markets, Financial system regulation and policies, Market structure and pricing |
| JEL: | G20 G14 L10 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:16-20 |
| By: | Hecq A.W.; Lieb L.M.; Telg J.M.A. (GSBE) |
| Abstract: | Gouriroux and Zakoian 2013 propose to use noncausal models to parsimoniously capture nonlinear features observed in financial time series and in particular bubble phenomena. In order to distinguish causal autoregressive processes from purely noncausal or mixed causal-noncausal ones, one has to depart from the Gaussianity assumption on the error distribution. This paper investigates by means of simulation how fat the tails of the distribution of the error process have to be such that those models can be identified in practice. We compare the performance of the MLE, assuming a t-distribution, with those of the LAD estimator that we propose in this paper. Similar to Davis, Knight and Liu 1992 we find that for infinite variance autoregressive processes both the MLE and LAD estimator converge faster. We further specify the general asymptotic normality results obtained in Andrews, Breidt and Davis 2006 for the case of t-distributed and Laplacian distributed error terms. We first illustrate our analysis by estimating mixed causal-noncausal autoregressions to model the demand for solar panels in Belgium over the last decade. Then we look at the presence of potential noncausal components in daily realized volatility series for 21 equity indexes. The presence of a noncausal component is confirmed in both empirical illustrations. |
| Keywords: | Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Financial Econometrics; |
| JEL: | C22 C58 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2015035 |
| By: | Hernández, José; Guerrero-Luchtenberg, César |
| Abstract: | This paper describes how social capital emerges, relates to economic performance and evolves in the long run. Using the concept of psychological equilibrium, two types of individuals are generated in the population regarding their willingness to cooperate. We propose an evolutionary (learning) process over those types driven by the total payoffs of the psychological game, and provide a complete description of its dynamics. Macro-perceptions, defined as the individual perception of how cooperative the society is as a whole, are key to explain convergence to the full social capital state in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Psychological Equilibrium, Belief-dependent Behavior, Evolutionary Games, Replicator Dynamics, Economic Development. |
| JEL: | C73 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71006 |
| By: | Jens Carsten Jackwerth (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany); Anna Slavutskaya (Graduate School of Decision Sciences, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Pension funds only quite recently have explored alternative assets, prodded by financial crises which devastated equity returns and led to low bond returns. We assess the addition of alternative assets to pension fund portfolios in terms of the total benefit derived from diversification, addition of positive skewness, and the elimination of left tails in returns. During 1994‐2012, adding portfolios of hedge funds has produced significantly higher total benefits than adding real estate, commodities, foreign equities, mutual funds, or funds of funds. Conditioning on past total benefits improves the out‐of‐sample performance even further as total benefits are more persistent than alpha. |
| Keywords: | Hedge Funds, Pension Funds, Performance Measurement, Certainty Equivalent, Alpha |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G23 |
| Date: | 2015–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1606 |
| By: | Azad Gholami, Reza (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Sandal, Leif K. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Ubøe, Jan (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we extend the single-period newsvendor problem with stochastic demand into a multi-period and time-dependent one and find a solution for it. We analyze the multi-period newsvendor problem with stochastic demand in a Stackelberg framework where the wholesaler is the leader and the retailer (newsvendor) is the follower. We use an additive-multiplicative structure for the demand so that both its mean and variance are considered as functions of the current retail price. Moreover, in our model, the demand mean and variance can be either time-dependent or autonomous with respect to time. A price-dependent memory function is also embedded in this representation of demand that carries the effect of demand level at present over to the demand in future. This leads to a strategic game in which the players must balance immediate high profits with reduced future earnings. We propose a complete solution to this stochastic multi-period Stackelberg game, covering cases with finite and infinite horizons. The theory is illustrated by using Cobb-Douglas demand functions as the deterministic part, while a random variable brings in stochasticity into the model. Because our theory is very flexible with respect to the assumptions made about the demand, market memory, and the behavior of the two agents, it is applicable to a wide variety of functional forms and capable to model many different economic contexts. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic games; multi-period newsvendor problem; stochastic demand; price-dependent demand; time-dependent demand; pricing theory; market engineering |
| JEL: | C00 C70 |
| Date: | 2016–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2016_006 |
| By: | May Arunanondchai (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | An applied general equilibrium model of the global trade in forest products has been used to assess the impact of tariff and export tax reductions on forestry, the wood processing sector and the agricultural sector. The focus of this study is on Malaysia and Indonesia and the implications for their forest resources. Three key results have emerged: firstly, trade liberalisation does not necessarily lead to increased log production since the real producer’s price does not always rise. Secondly, the Uruguay Round tariff changes may make forestry a less-attractive form of land use when compared with agriculture. Thirdly, the proliferation of log export barriers amongst tropical countries has a cartel-like effect; thus elimination of such barriers may be detrimental to tropical exporters. |
| Keywords: | Trade Policy,Welfare,Timber Exporters,Forest Resources |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016056 |
| By: | Reagan, Tyler J.; Anderson, David P.; Ishdorj, Ariun |
| Abstract: | On December 23, 2003, the first confirmed United States case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, or BSE, was discovered in Washington State. Following this incident, weekly exports of United States beef fell from 13,819 metric tons of beef the week before the incident to 130 metric tons of beef to by the second week of January of 2004. Since 2004, annual United States beef exports have increased from 460 million pounds to 2.6 billion pounds in 2014. Cattle priced on formulas or on grids are discounted if older than 30 months. BSE related regulations limit the ability to export beef from cattle over 30 months old. Data on over thirty month price discounts began in January 2004. The discount is also related to maturity grading with A maturity being younger animals and B maturity capturing older animals. This analysis indicates that the discount has grown steadily larger since 2004. Yet, the discount has become smaller relative to fed cattle price as beef supplies have tightened. Changing trade regulations are shown to have had a statistically significant effect on the discount magnitude. |
| Keywords: | Beef, Grid Pricing, Premiums and Discounts, BSE, Over Thirty Months, Livestock Production/Industries, Q13, |
| Date: | 2016–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229754 |
| By: | Aida Cumurovic; Walter Hyll |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the relationship between financial literacy and self-employment. We use established financial knowledge-based questions to measure financial literacy levels. The analysis shows a highly significant correlation between selfemployment and financial literacy scores. To investigate the impact of financial literacy on being self-employed, we apply instrumental variable techniques based on information on economic education before entering the labour market and education of parents. Our results reveal that financial literacy positively affects the probability of being self-employed. As financial literacy is acquirable, findings suggest that entrepreneurial activities may be raised via enhancing financial knowledge. |
| Keywords: | financial literacy, financial sophistication, self-employment |
| JEL: | A20 D03 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:11-16 |
| By: | Vincenzo Merella (University of Cagliari and BCAM); Daniel Santabárbara (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Using average import prices (unit values) as proxies for quality, a large body of the international trade literature finds both theoretical and empirical support for the positive relationship between importer income and quality of imports. Several authors, however, argue that the empirical evidence of the link between income and product quality might be spurious, since import prices could be affected by other factors than product quality. This paper takes into account this issue with a new theoretical and empirical approach. Building on Khandelwal’s (2010) discrete choice model approach, where quality is inferred by quantitative market shares as well as unit values, we develop a model that allows for willingness to pay for quality to vary with income. We empirically validate the theoretical relationship between importer income and product quality by using the Eurostat’s COMEXT database, which collects customs data reported by EU countries at 8-digit disaggregation. Our estimations support the positive link between consumer income and product quality, which is also robust across sectors. |
| Keywords: | quality, consumer income, import shares, unit values, nested logit demand. |
| JEL: | F12 F14 L15 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1607 |
| By: | Richard T. Baillie (Department of Economics, Michigan State University, USA; School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); George Kapetanios (School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, UK); Fotis Papailias (Queen's University Management School, Queen's University Belfast, UK; quantf research, www.quantf.com) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a multivariate system of fractionally integrated time series and investigates the most appropriate way for estimating Impulse Response (IR) coefficients and their associated confidence intervals. The paper extends the univariate analysis recently provided by Baillie and Kapetanios (2013), and uses a semi parametric, time domain estimator, based on a vector autoregression (VAR) approximation. Results are also derived for the orthogonalized estimated IRs which are generally more practically relevant. Simulation evidence strongly indicates the desirability of applying the Kilian small sample bias correction, which is found to improve the coverage accuracy of confidence intervals for IRs. The most appropriate order of the VAR turns out to be relevant for the lag length of the IR being estimated. |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:15-46 |
| By: | Mittal, Surabhi |
| Abstract: | Mobile phone-enabled information delivery mechanism has the potential to reduce the knowledge gap between large and small farmers, and also across gender by creating awareness. This paper focuses on how women are receptive to the information that they receive through mobile phones, how the access to information through the mobile phone has helped them to feel empowered? What kind of information they value? And what potentially it means for their empowerment? This is done by analyzing listening behavior of farmers both men and women towards information provided through mobile phones. The study is undertaken in selected villages of two states of India Haryana and Bihar and thus also present some contrasting results across the two states. Female farmers feel that the agro advisories have helped them to increase their knowledge about farming practices which includes information about modern technologies and best practices. |
| Keywords: | India, mobile phones, information, gender empowerment, Crop Production/Industries, Labor and Human Capital, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Q12 and Q16, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212467 |
| By: | Gabriel Gomes |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates to which extent dollar real exchange rate fluctuations explain the unexpected divergent movement between the real exchange rate of oil exporting countries and the price of oil in certain periods. Estimating a panel cointegrating model for 11 OPEC and 5 major oil exporting countries over the 1980-2014 period, we find evidence to support they have oil currencies in the long term. In fact, a 10% increase in the price of oil leads to a 2.1% appreciation of their real exchange rate. To analyse how swings on the dollar exchange rate affect the co-movement between the two variables in the short run, we rely on a non-linear approach and estimate a panel smooth transition regression model. Results show that, in the short term, oil currencies move in concert with the price of oil only if the dollar appreciation is lower than 2.6%. After the dollar appreciates beyond this threshold, the real exchange rate of oil exporting economies is rather negatively affected by the price of oil. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price;Oil Currencies;Non-linearities |
| JEL: | C33 F31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-11 |
| By: | Yigezu, Yigezu A.; Tizale, Chilot Y.; Aw-Hassan, Aden |
| Abstract: | This paper argues and provides empirical evidence that adoption decisions on multiple technologies involve a series of three sequential sub-decisions. Using a multivariate tobit and multivariate probit models and a nationally representative data from Ethiopian highlands, we find that decisions on the area shares of barley and potatoes in total farm size and the plot/field-level decision on the adoption of improved varieties of the two crops are independent. The farm-level decisions on the adoption of improved varieties of the two crops however exhibit strong simultaneity. A striking result from this analysis is that, the number of extension visits affects neither crop choice nor variety adoption decisions which, along with the relatively high density of extension agents in Ethiopia, shows the poor performance of the extension system. Targeting farmers dedicating higher proportion of their lands to the particular crop and introducing other models of extension could increase technology adoption. |
| Keywords: | adoption, multiple technologies, simultaneity, multivariate tobit, multivariate probit, Crop Production/Industries, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211867 |
| By: | Ochi, John; Madaki, Musa; Murtala, Nasiru |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this article is to stimulate discussion about the links between malaria pandemic and crop production, and to broaden our understanding of the effect of malaria in terms of its economic burden on households and national economic development of endemic economies. It begins with a theoretical framework, emphasising economic development imperative of malaria, and the implication for agricultural development. Using propensity score matching, the likelihood of malaria infection was evaluated in relation to key socioeconomic variables among infected and uninfected households in agricultural communities of Yobe State. Similarly, the linear regression provides empirical evidence to suggest that the instrumented malaria indices significantly reduce crop production among malaria infected households. The economic loss approach further stresses the economic imperative of the opportunity cost of labor among malaria infected households. The empirical results suggest targeting farmers with malaria-specific control and prevention programs in the state. |
| Keywords: | Crop production, Malaria illness, household income, Propensity score matching, economic development, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212587 |
| By: | Tomasz R. Bielecki; Igor Cialenco; Marcin Pitera |
| Abstract: | In this work we give a comprehensive overview of the time consistency property of dynamic risk and performance measures, with focus on discrete time setup. The two key operational concepts used throughout are the notion of the LM-measure and the notion of the update rule that, we believe, are the key tools for studying the time consistency in a unified framework. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1603.09030 |
| By: | Abbott, Philip; Boussios, David; Lowenberg deboer, jess |
| Abstract: | Monthly WASDE reports by USDA estimate current and future global supply-utilization balances for various commodities, including corn. Existing literature has shown that markets respond to WASDE releases (news effects) but has not quantified the value or distribution of benefits from those reports. We use Monte Carlo simulations of a quarterly model of the U.S. corn market to estimate the value of the WASDE forecast and its components. Our results show significant value to market participants from the WASDE reports, roughly $301 million or 0.55% of overall corn market value. The results also show significant value for each forecasted component of the reports: area ($145 million), yield ($188 million), production ($299 million), demand/stocks ($300 million) and exports ($320 million). The benefits of each component do not strictly sum when new information is added because substantial redistribution of benefits occurs, since specific information components help specific interest groups. The expected benefits or losses realized by consumers, producers or traders is often nearly as large as (and sometimes larger than) the net benefits to society from better information. In the base case benefits from WASDE information largely accrues to producers ($153 million) and consumers ($341 million). Traders lose $192 million, as they are presumed to buy at harvest, before valuable demand, stocks and export data is known. Farmers behave as traders when they choose to store, sell forward, or participate directly in futures markets. Thus, the net trader benefit or loss accrues partially to farmers as traders and partially to commercial agents. These results are sensitive to elasticity assumptions that capture both how agents behave in markets and how their welfare is measured. |
| Keywords: | Market information, public information, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), agricultural commodity markets, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:234902 |
| By: | Fabian Kosse (University of Bonn); Thomas Deckers (University of Bonn); Hannah Schildberg-Horisch (University of Bonn); Armin Falk (Universitat Bonn) |
| Abstract: | This study presents descriptive and causal evidence on the role of social environment for the formation of prosociality. In a first step, we show that socio-economic status (SES) as well as the intensity of mother-child interaction and mothers' prosocial attitudes are systematically related to elementary school children's prosociality. In a second step, we present evidence on a randomly assigned variation of the social environment, providing children with a mentor for the duration of one year. Our data include a two-year follow-up and reveal a significant and persistent increase in prosociality in the treatment relative to the control group. Moreover, enriching the social environment bears the potential to close the observed developmental gap in prosociality between low and high SES children. Our findings suggest that the program serves as a substitute for prosocial stimuli in the family environment. |
| Keywords: | Formation of preferences, prosociality, social preferences, trust, social inequality |
| JEL: | D64 C90 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2016-011 |
| By: | Monica Brezzi; Patrizia Luongo |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates regional disparities in access to healthcare, measured by self-reported unmet medical needs. It looks at disparities across 86 regions in 5 European countries: Czech Republic, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. The results show that in addition to individual factors, such as age, gender, health status, or education, the characteristics of the region where people live, such as the average skill endowment or employment rate, have a significant impact on the probability of unmet medical needs. Individual and regional determinants play different roles across regions in these five countries. Moreover, in three of these countries (Czech Republic, Italy and Spain), age and chronic illness have different impacts on unmet medical needs depending on the region of residence, when all the other conditions are kept the same. The result calls for further investigation on regionalspecific factors that could be modified with targeted policies in order to reduce the probability of foregone health care. |
| Keywords: | health, access to health care, regional inequality, multilevel logistic analysis |
| JEL: | C14 I14 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2016/4-en |
| By: | Anthony J. Venables; Jan I. Haaland |
| Abstract: | Abstract: This paper derives optimal trade and domestic taxes for a small open economy containing a monopolistically competitive (MC) sector in which firms may have heterogeneous productivity levels. Analysis encompasses cases in which the domestic MC sector is able to expand or contract flexibly, or is constrained to be of fixed size. In the former case domestic protection can bring gains by increasing the number of product varieties on offer; these gains (and the corresponding rates of domestic subsidy or of import tariffs) are reduced by heterogeneity of foreign exporters some of whom may withdraw from the market. In the latter case gains from protection arise from terms-of-trade effects; since various margins of substitution are switched off, only the relative values of domestic taxes, import tariffs and export taxes matter. In general, policies work through both a terms-of-trade and a variety effect, and the paper shows how the relative importance of each depends on the structure of the economy. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, monopolistic competition, heterogeneous firms, terms of trade, variety, productivity. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 |
| Date: | 2016–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:782 |
| By: | Johannsen, Benjamin K.; Mertens, Elmar |
| Abstract: | Modeling interest rates over samples that include the Great Recession requires taking stock of the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. We propose a flexible time– series approach which includes a “shadow rate”—a notional rate that is less than the ELB during the period in which the bound is binding—without imposing no–arbitrage assumptions. The approach allows us to estimate the behavior of trend real rates as well as expected future interest rates in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Econometrics ; Effective Lower Bound ; Shadow Rate ; State-Space Model ; Term Structure of Interest Rates |
| JEL: | C32 C34 C53 E43 E47 |
| Date: | 2016–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-33 |
| By: | Braun, Sebastian Till; Weber, Henning |
| Abstract: | We draw on two decades of historical data to analyze how regional labor markets in West Germany adjusted to one of the largest forced population movements in history, the mass inflow of eight million German expellees after World War II. The expellee inflow was distributed very asymmetrically across two West German regions. A dynamic two-region search and matching model of unemployment, which is exposed to the asymmetric expellee inflow, closely fits historical data on the regional unemployment differential and the regional migration rate. Both variables increase dramatically after the inflow and decline only gradually over the next decade. We show that despite the large and long-lasting dynamics following the expellee inflow, native workers experience only a modest loss in expected discounted lifetime labor income of 1.38%. Per-period losses in native labor income, however, are up to four times as large. The magnitude of income losses also depends on the initial location and labor market status of native workers. In counterfactual analyses, we furthermore show that economic policy interventions that affect the nature of the immigration inflow can effectively reduce native income losses and dampen adjustment dynamics in regional labor markets. One such intervention is to distribute the inflow more evenly over time. Smaller immigration inflows, similar in magnitude to the refugee inflow that Germany is experiencing today, also reduce native income losses markedly but decrease the duration of labor market adjustment only modestly. |
| Keywords: | immigration,labor market adjustments,dynamic search and matching model of unemployment,asymmetric labor supply shock,post-war Germany |
| JEL: | J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052016 |
| By: | Matthew Ryan (Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Law, Auckland University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Experimental evidence suggests that choice behaviour has a stochastic element. Much of this evidence is based on studying choices between lotteries ñchoice under risk. Binary choice probabilities admit a strong utility representation (SUR) if there is a utility function such that the probability of choosing option A over option B is a strictly increasing function of the utility di§erence between A and B. Debreu (1958) obtained a simple set of su¢ cient conditions on binary choice probabilities for the existence of a SUR. More recently, Dagsvik (2008) considered binary choices between lotteries and provided axiomatic foundations for a SUR in which the underlying utility function is linear (i.e., conforms to expected utility). Our paper strengthens and generalises Dagsvikís result. We show that one of Dagsvikís axioms can be weakened, and we extend his analysis to encompass choices between uncertain prospects, as well as various non-linear speciÖcations of utility. |
| Keywords: | Strong utility representation, Choice probabilities |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aut:wpaper:201501 |
| By: | Davide Luca |
| Abstract: | Despite a significant amount of research, literature continues to produce contrasting predictions on how, and when, public bureaucracies may enhance or constrain policy effectiveness. On the one hand, developmental state research has stressed the importance of bureaucrats’ autonomy from politics, particularly in emerging economies. On the other hand, public choice literature has called for strong oversight by politicians over the bureaus. The paper contributes to this debate by analysing Turkey’s contemporary public investment management. It offers a detailed exploration of how economic bureaucracy’s characteristics contributed to ‘sound’ investment management. The analysis draws on in-depth elite interviews. The results suggest that the existence of a capable and authoritative organisation directing the project cycle has positively contributed to the technical management of investments. Empirical evidence also indicates that this organisation is insufficiently insulated vis-à-vis government; its ability to implement ‘sound’ policies is therefore contingent on the political context. Nevertheless, the analysis also uncovers significant resistance of the bureaucrats against measures which would increase bureaucratic efficiency and transparency. Overall, the findings suggest that bureaucratic autonomy and accountability play an equally relevant role in determining policy effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | bureaucracies, policy effectiveness, public goods, EU Candidate Countries, Turkey |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eiq:eileqs:109 |
| By: | Alexandre de Ávila Gomide; Carlos Henrique de Carvalho |
| Abstract: | Este texto procura discutir as estruturas regulatórias dos sistemas de transporte coletivo por ônibus urbano, caracterizando as suas principais variáveis e avaliando seus impactos sobre o desempenho econômico, financeiro e operacional dos serviços. Inicialmente, procurou-se esclarecer os motivos da regulação dos sistemas de ônibus urbano a partir de uma revisão da literatura especializada, destacando-se, entre outros motivos, as falhas de mercado existentes, como a geração de externalidades negativas e de iniquidades sociais na produção dos serviços, além da própria essencialidade do transporte público – responsável pelos deslocamentos da população de baixa renda. Posteriormente, foi apresentado um conjunto de variáveis de caracterização dos modelos regulatórios, como uma plataforma de análise exploratória e comparativa desses modelos. Além disso, por meio do levantamento de evidências empíricas, foram analisadas as principais alterações ocorridas em alguns modelos regulatórios e seus efeitos sobre as condições dos serviços. Por fim, discutiram-se as tendências e os desafios presentes para a regulação e o financiamento dos sistemas de transporte públicos. This text discusses the regulatory frameworks of public transport systems for urban bus, featuring their main variables and assessing their impact on economic, financial and operational services. Initially, it tried to clarify the reasons for the regulation of urban bus systems from a review of the literature , emphasizing among other things the existing market failures, such as the generation of negative externalities and socialinequalities in the production of services in addition to own essentiality of public transport – responsible for the low-income population displacements. In addition, it was presented a set of descriptive variables of regulatory frameworks, as a platform for exploratory and comparative analysis of these models. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2187 |
| By: | Iakov T. Kuga (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | According to the Treaty of Frankfurt (1871) France lost Alsace and Lorraine. In the paper I estimate how the new border affected a growth of nearby towns. Applying difference-in-differences methodology to census data for 1831-1911, I obtain paradoxical result. The new border boosted the growth of nearby towns. Extra urban growth in a 70 km border region reached 4.23 per cent p.a. in 1872-6, and was smaller, but still significantly positive, later. Point estimate of the total border effect in 1872-1911 is 134 per cent. This effect survives in more homogeneous subsamples and is robust to a number of specification changes. Both immigration of Alsatians, garrison growth and fort construction have sizable and significant positive effect on urban growth; however, the border effect remains significantly positive after accounting for these factors |
| Keywords: | market potential, population, France, Alsace, Lorraine, difference-in-differences. |
| JEL: | F15 N93 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:133/ec/2016 |
| By: | Mai Van Nam (School of Economics and Business Administration, Can Tho University); Nguyen Tan Nhan (Can Tho University); Bui Van Trinh (Can Tho University); Pham Le Thong (Can Tho University) |
| Abstract: | The management systems evaluated consists of buffer zone management system, strict protection, joint venture, and family/household commercial management system in the Melaluaca Forests of Mekong River Delta. Household survey in the four study sites consisting of Song Trem (contract household and joint venture-JV), Tram Chim (buffer Zone), Vo Doi (strict protection) and Giong Rieng (family/household commercial farms) was undertaken. The results of the study showed that forest products do not contribute much to the household income, especially in the light of the existing logging ban policy. The farmers had to rely mainly on rice farming, that is characterized by low yields, and on non-and off-farm activities such as hired labor that are highly seasonal and unstable. JV households are given very large land areas but earn less income from their forestlands. Harvesting of the forest is not allowed, which is potentially a big source of income for the JV households. Similarly, Buffer zone-contract households and those in the strict protection zone have not been able to benefit from their investment in forest management. There is therefore very little incentive to continue forest management activities for these households. The same cannot be 2 said for family/household commercial farms in forestland with about 50 years contract—where virtually “private ownership” exists. Income levels for this group are much higher, coming mostly from forestlands, with agriculture as the major land use system. |
| Keywords: | Forest Management Systems,Mekong River Delta, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016060 |
| By: | Eckart Voland; Kai P. Willführ (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In the population of the Krummhörn (Ostfriesland, Germany) in the 18th and 19th centuries, paternal death led to an accelerated marriage of his children on average. Three evolutionary explanations are offered for this “paternal absence” effect in the literature, namely (i) the assumption of an adaptive “psychosocial acceleration” of the children with pre-pubertal experience of uncertainty within the framework of evolutionary life history theory, (ii) an adaptive adjustment of life and reproduction decisions within the theoretical framework of behavioral ecology as a reaction to the personal cost-benefit balances changed by the father’s death, and (iii) in view of the genetic parent-offspring conflict, an increase in the reproductive autonomy of offspring after the loss of the dominant father figure. Our models, which are based on the analyses of the vital-statistics data derived primarily from church registers and compiled into a family reconstitution study, attribute the greatest explanatory power to the behavioral ecology approach (ii) for the circumstances in the Krummhörn. |
| Keywords: | Germany, family reconstitution, historical demography |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-005 |
| By: | Perrett, Edward |
| Abstract: | The changing fortunes of the Australian sheepmeat and wool sectors have led to dramatic changes to the national flock. In recent years the profitability of the sheepmeat sector has provided mixed signals to producers to simultaneously sell to capitalise on high prices, particularly for mutton and breeding stock, while also shifting enterprises towards dual purpose (meat and wool) and specialist lamb production systems. This essay provides a summary of changes to the Australian sheep flock in the past twenty years, including the growth of the sheepmeat sector and the decline of the wool sector. It considers drivers of profitability in the sheep industry, comparing the recent economic performance of prime lamb, dual purpose, and wool flocks. It is suggested that there are a number of common factors evident in the most profitable sheep businesses. A discussion about risk management and volatility helps explain the rise of dual production systems, the persistence of risk-averse wool enterprises, and highly productive but volatile returns for specialist prime lamb producers. Flock structure is identified a major determinant of profitability, with breeding ewes critical to production. The challenges posed will also shape the future of the Australian sheep flock. Fertility and drought-induced sell-off are noted as major factors affecting changes to the Australian flock, which could be exacerbated by an increasingly variable and extreme climate. Finally, this essay considers the future size and composition of the Australian sheep flock. A flock structure model is used to estimate the effects of hypothetical changes to marking and slaughter rates. It is concluded that it remains possible to sustain production and kill the 'Golden Sheep', provided there is a focus on productivity and reproduction efficiency to ‘optimise’ the remaining flock. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:auagpe:234412 |
| By: | Ward, Clement E.; Vestal, Mallory K.; Lee, Yoonsuk |
| Abstract: | Research identifies relationships among weekly alternative marketing arrangement (AMA) prices since the advent of mandatory price reporting in 2001. Relationships between cash prices and other AMA prices, both for fed cattle and hogs, changed little over the twelve years. For fed cattle, cash prices were closer to formula prices and negotiated grid prices than to forward contract prices. For hogs, cash prices were closer to swine market formula prices than to either other market formula prices or other purchase prices. Both for fed cattle and hogs, cash prices were above other AMA prices in upward moving markets and below other AMA prices in downward moving markets. However, there was no indication the thinning negotiated cash market adversely affected these relationships. |
| Keywords: | alternative price arrangements, cattle, hogs, price discovery, prices, thin markets, Demand and Price Analysis, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miscpa:179231 |
| By: | Anne-Célia Disdier (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Lionel Fontagné (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Mondher Mimouni (Office National de la Météorologie (Tamanrasset) - Office National de la Météorologie) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how tariff liberalization has aected exporting at the product-destination level in emerging countries. We use a highly disaggregated (6 digit level of the harmonized system HS classication) bilateral measure of market access to compare taris applied in 1996 and 2006, which includes the timing of the Uruguay Round and episodes of bilateral liberalization. Our econometric estimations consider impacts of tari cuts on three components of the trade margins: extensive margin of entry (new trade relationships at the product-destination level), extensive margin of exit (disappearance of existing relationships) and intensive margin of trade (deepening existing relationships). Our main estimates indicate that a reduction of bilateral applied taris of 1 percentage point increases the extensive margin of entry by 0.1% and the intensive one by 2.09%, while it reduces the extensive margin of exit by 0.25%. |
| Keywords: | tariffs,trade liberalization,emerging countries,margins of trade |
| Date: | 2015–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01299753 |
| By: | Pires, Marcel V.; Cunha, Denis A.; Faria, Raiza M.; Lindemann, Douglas |
| Abstract: | Here, we provide an analysis to understand the evolution of cereal production and consumption of nitrogen (N) fertilizers in Brazil and to correlate N use efficiency (NUE), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economic and environmental losses. Our results showed that the increased consumption of N fertilizers is associated with a large decrease in NUE in recent years. CO2eq emissions from N fertilization for cereal production were approximately 12 times higher in 2011 compared to 1970. The projected N fertilizer forecasts are 2.09 and 2.37 million ton for 2015 and 2023, respectively. An increase of 0.02% per year in the projected NUE was predicted for the same time period. In a hypothetical scenario, a 2.39% increase in cereal NUE would lead to USD 21 million savings in N fertilizer costs. Thus, increases in NUE rates would lead not only to agronomic and environmental benefits but also to economic improvement. |
| Keywords: | Nitrogen, Forecast, Fertilizer Demand, Brazil, Greenhouse Gases, International Development, Production Economics, Q15, Q24, Q54, Q56, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212709 |
| By: | Müller, Tobias; Boes, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of disability insurance (DI) benefits on the labor market decision of existing DI beneficiaries using a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design. We identify the effect of DI benefits on the decision of working full-time, part-time or staying out of the labor force by exploiting a discontinuity in the DI benefit award rate above the age of 55. Overall, our results suggest that the Swiss DI system creates substantial lock-in effects which heavily influence the labor supply decision of existing beneficiaries: the benefit receipt increases the probability of working part-time by about 41%-points, decreases the probability of working full-time by about 42%-points but has little or no effects on the probability of staying out of the labor force for the average beneficiary. Therefore, DI benefits induce a shift in the labor supply of existing beneficiaries in the sense that they reduce their work intensity from working full-time to part-time which adds a possible explanation for the low DI outflow observed all across the OECD. |
| Keywords: | Disability insurance benefits; Labor market participation; Fuzzy regression discontinuity design Endogenous switching models; Maximum simulated likelihood |
| JEL: | C35 C36 J22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70957 |
| By: | Jörg Breitung; Sven Schreiber |
| Abstract: | We extend the frequency-specific Granger-causality test of Breitung et al. (2006) to a more general null hypothesis that allows causality testing at unknown frequencies within a prespecified range of frequencies. This setup corresponds better to empirical situations encountered in applied research and it is easily implemented in vector autoregressive models. We also provide tools for estimating the phase shift/delay at some prespecified frequency or frequency band. In an empirical application dealing with the dynamics of US temperatures and CO2 emissions we find that emissions cause temperature changes only at very low frequencies with more than 30 years of oscillation. Furthermore we analyze the indicator properties of new orders for German industrial production by assessing the delay at the frequencies of interest. |
| Keywords: | Granger causality, frequency domain, filter gain |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:165-2016 |
| By: | David Chilosi; Giovanni Federico |
| Abstract: | We investigate the effect of the decline in trade costs on trade, terms of trade and welfare of Europe (the United Kingdom and the Netherlands) and three large exporters (India, Indonesia and the United States) during the first globalization using a ‘bottom-up’ approach. We measure total route and product specific trade costs for a representative sample of commodities with price gaps predicted by observed trade costs. We use a simple microeconomic model and we buttress our findings with additional econometric testing. We find that price convergence accounted for almost all the improvement in terms of trade of producing countries and increased significantly welfare in both producing and especially consuming countries, while its positive effect on bilateral trade was often swamped by other factors. The findings caution against the substation of proxies to actual measures of trade costs. |
| Keywords: | market integration; trade costs; terms of trade; trade; welfare; first globalization |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:66306 |
| By: | Shi, Xiaohua; Hu, Ruifa |
| Abstract: | The genetic contribution and economic impacts of exotic germplasm (particularly IRRI’s and Japan’s material) to China’s rice production are studied based on the analysis of varieties’ pedigree information from 16 major rice producing provinces in China during 1982-2011. The results indicated that the exotic germplasm, especially those coming from the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) and Japan contributed greatly to China’s rice production and varietal improvement efforts. IRRI is the biggest contributors to China rice production, the average contribute rate reach 16.3% in 30 years. The contribution to china rice production increase gradually during the 1980s’, it reached its peak 23.59% in 1990 then declined gradually over the years that followed. The trend of Japanese varieties manifests a steady share since 1992. And their overall importance shows no sign of fading. The policy implication means that government should encourage breeders to focus more on the use and improvement of exotic germplasm. |
| Keywords: | Exotic genetic, Rice production, China, Crop Production/Industries, International Development, Livestock Production/Industries, O13 Agriculture, Natural Resources, Energy, Environment, Other Primary Products, Q58 Environmental Economics: Government Policy, C5 Econometric Modeling, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212236 |
| By: | MORIKAWA Masayuki |
| Abstract: | The number of tourists from foreign countries and their consumption expenditure in Japan are increasing rapidly. This paper, using micro data from the Accommodation Survey (Japan Tourism Agency), empirically analyzes the effects of foreign tourists on the productivity of the accommodation industry. According to the production function estimations, an increase in the number of foreign visitors significantly improves the measured total factor productivity (TFPQ) of the accommodation industry. The effects come from both 1) the increase in the quantity of demand for accommodation services and 2) the temporal smoothing of demand fluctuations. However, the number of foreign tourists staying in accommodations differs markedly by facility: in some facilities, the number has greatly increased while many others still do not have any foreign visitors. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:16044 |
| By: | Amponsah, Lawrence |
| Abstract: | Using annual time series data for Ghana, the current study investigates the public investment and agricultural productivity nexus for the period 1961-2013. The empirical assessment is done by using the Johansen test (JT), the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression test. The results indicate significant stable long run link between public investment and agricultural productivity in the JT. However, there is insignificant short run link between public investment and agricultural productivity in the VECM. The results of the OLS indicate negative significant link between investment and agricultural productivity. The findings suggest that Public investment has led to a decrease in agricultural productivity. Policy makers should manage public investment very well in order to achieve positive impact on the agricultural sector. The argument in support of public investment in agriculture sector needs to be re-examined as the current findings does not support the debate. Future study should examine the current issue using accounting for causality and structural breaks issues since the present study did not consider these issues. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural economics, public investment, agricultural sector, economic growth, long run, short run. |
| JEL: | H54 Q20 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–02–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70924 |
| By: | Jean Paul Simon |
| Abstract: | Technology companies with high market capitalisation (often called unicorns) have been receiving a lot of attention and media coverage recently. In general, unicorns are IT-centric (software mostly, but also hardware). They are often rather young global companies that match unsatisfied demand with supply through the production (which can easily be scaled up) of innovative and usually affordable services and products. These are usually part of the mobile internet wave, and rely on connectivity (high speed networks, mobile and fixed), new devices (smartphones, tablets, phablets…) and the opportunities these bring. They are grounded in network effects, and demand-side economies of scale and scope. They depend on a strong favourable business environment, developing organically and building on fast expanding markets (emerging economies, middle classes). They are Venture Capital-dependent and the competition for funding can generate impressive (i.e. inflated) valuations. These companies can be disruptive for other sectors and firms. This report aims to document the phenomenon by investigating a qualitative sample of 30 companies that have recently been valued above the one billion dollar threshold. It identifies some of their characteristics and the lessons to be learnt. The report has two parts: Part I contains the overall findings of the investigation and some suggestions for policy makers. Part II contains a detailed account of the case studies on which the investigation is based. They are published as separate documents |
| Keywords: | IT industry, technology, innovation, market capitalisation |
| JEL: | L00 L1 L2 L8 O3 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc100719 |
| By: | Jörg Döpke (University of Applied Sciences Merseburg); Ulrich Fritsche (University Hamburg); Christian Pierdzioch (Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | We use a machine-learning approach known as Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) to reexamine the usefulness of selected leading indicators for predicting recessions. We estimate the BRT approach on German data and study the relative importance of the indicators and their marginal effects on the probability of a recession. We then use receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to study the accuracy of forecasts. Results show that the short-term interest rate and the term spread are important leading indicators, but also that the stock market has some predictive value. The recession probability is a nonlinear function of these leading indicators. The BRT approach also helps to recover how the recession probability depends on the interactions of the leading indicators. While the predictive power of the short-term interest rates has declined over time, the term spread and the stock market have gained in importance. We also study how the shape of a forecaster’s utility function affects the optimal choice of a cutoff value above which the estimated recession probability should be interpreted as a signal of a recession. The BRT approach shows a competitive out-of-sample performance compared to popular Probit approaches |
| Keywords: | : Recession forecasting; Boosting; Regression trees; ROC analysis |
| JEL: | C52 C53 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-004 |
| By: | Yongchen Zhao (Towson University) |
| Abstract: | Based on a set of carefully designed Monte Carlo exercises, this paper document the behavior and performance of several newly developed advanced forecast combination algorithms in unstable environments, where performance of candidate forecasts are cross-sectionally heterogeneous and dynamically evolving over time. Results from these exercises provide guidelines regarding the selection of forecast combination method based on the nature, frequency, and magnitude of instabilities in forecasts as well as the target variable. Following these guidelines, a simple forecast combination exercise using the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters, where combined forecasters are shown to have superior performance that is not only statistically significant but also of practical importance. |
| Keywords: | Forecast combination; exponential re-weighting; shrinkage; estimation error; performance stability; real-time data |
| JEL: | C53 C22 C15 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2015-005 |
| By: | Kristkova, Z. Smeets; Gardebroek, K.; van Dijk, M.; van Meijl, H. |
| Abstract: | The understanding of the drivers of technological progress and their impact on food security is still limited. The paper contributes to the lacking empirical evidence on the speed of technical change affecting various sectors and production factors differently, which leads to contradicting projections of food demand in the global ex-ante assessment models. The aim of the paper is to quantify endogenous factor-augmenting technical change driven by R&D investments in a panel of 13 OECD countries over 1987-2006. A CES framework with cost minimization behavior was chosen to derive the system of equations that were estimated by GMM system estimator. Statistically significant effects of domestic and foreign manufacturing R&D were found on labor-augmenting technical change in manufacturing, agriculture, transport and retail sector. The results of this study provide a starting point for incorporating endogenous factor-biased technical change in impact assessment models aimed at policy analysis of food security. |
| Keywords: | factor-biased technical change, R&D, CES function, production sectors, GMM regression., Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, C3, O3, Q16, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:230229 |
| By: | Sophie Piton |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the contribution of real interest rate divergence to the dynamics of the relative price of non-tradables within Europe. Based on a model by De Gregorio et al. (1994), it shows that the real interest rate fall in the Euro Area (EA) periphery following the single currency's inception induced an increase in the relative price of non-tradable goods. Using a new dataset, it documents the dynamics of the tradable and the non-tradable sectors over 1995-2013 and the expansion of the non-tradable sector in the periphery before the euro crisis. It then carries out an econometric estimation for 11 EA countries over 1995-2013 and quantifies the contribution of the pure Balassa-Samuelson effect and the impact of the interest rate on non-tradable relative prices. Diverging evolution in the interest rate impacted greatly the evolution of non-tradable relative prices within the euro area over the period. In Greece, the fall in the real interest rate over 1995-2008 could explain almost half of the non-tradable price increase relative to the EA average, while in Germany the increase in the real interest rate might have contributed up to 7% of the decrease of the non-tradable price relative to the average of the EA. |
| Keywords: | Non-tradable prices;Balassa-Samuelson effect;Real interest rate |
| JEL: | F41 F45 E43 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-09 |
| By: | Gregory Fischer; Dean Karlan |
| Abstract: | We document the presence of multiple and varied constraints to small and medium firm growth. This presents both a practical problem for business training programs and a challenge to academic economists trying to identify mechanisms though which these programs may affect outcomes. External validity needs theory. This pushes researchers to narrowly defined and highly selected sample frames, which limits the potential for clear, generalizable policy prescriptions. Ultimately, larger samples, multi-arm evaluations, process documentation, and narrowly-focused, theory-supported empirical work are all needed, but the complexity of the problem limits what we learn from any single study. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66033 |
| By: | Sanderson Abel & Pierre Le Roux |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the level of competition in Zimbabwe’s banking sector using the Panzar-Rosse H-statistic. The H-Statistic has been assessed, using the total revenues regression equation, and applying the panel least square regression model with fixed effects. The H-statistics is estimated at 0.56, which result is confirmed, using bank random effects and the General methods of moments, yield similar results. The H-statics obtained from the two methods are 0.54 and 0.51 for the random effect and generalised methods of moments, respectively. The results confirm the presence of a monopolistic competition. On an annual basis, the results show that the Zimbabwean banking sector is evolving towards perfect competition. The increased competition was evident through aggressive promotions, increased marketing of banking products, and increased tenure of loans from one year to three years for individuals as banks tried to outclass each other. The study recommends that the government should desist from tampering with market forces as this reduces the amount of competition. |
| Keywords: | banking, Competition, Zimbabwe, Panzar-Rosse |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:599 |
| By: | Hopfensitz, Astrid; Mantilla, Cesar; Miquel-Florensa, Josepa |
| Abstract: | We design and conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment to test the effect of a conditional contract on the sustainability of an open access fishery, where unit prices are conditional on aggregate catch. The contract provides collective incentives to decrease extraction but maintain the individual incentives of extraction maximization. We conduct the experiment with two communities of artisanal fishermen differing in their market and technological restrictions. We find that the conditional contract, compared to a fixed price scheme, increases efficiency, the duration of the resource and the total yield. The contract has a greater effect upon groups from the less restricted community. |
| Keywords: | artifactual field experiment, dynamic resource, artisanal fishery, stochastic production function |
| JEL: | C92 Q22 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:30371 |
| By: | Zhou, Mo |
| Abstract: | This study undertook the residential water demand analysis based on a panel data covered 31 provinces of China during the sample period from 2004 to 2013. Two models are employed in this study: Double-Log model and EDM model. The estimates of double-log model show that the different levels of income cannot impact the water price elasticities significantly but the fixed effects estimator gives a more appropriate estimate for the water demand system. In addition, both the water price and the income are inelastic. However, with the EDM model estimations, the results reveal that the water price is elastic for the residential water demand in the short run, and the partial price-supply elasticity is negative due to estimates of total elasticities. Both two models gave the result that the residential water is an inferior good in China. |
| Keywords: | Residential Water Demand, Total Elasticity, Water Price, EDM, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C13 C23 Q25, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229774 |
| By: | Gómez Bruera, Hernán |
| Abstract: | Al abordar el problema del hambre y la desnutrición, la más reciente Conferencia Regional sobre Desarrollo Social de América Latina y el Caribe organizada por la CEPAL (Lima, Perú, 2 a 4 de noviembre de 2015) puso énfasis en la necesidad de tratar estos asuntos desde la óptica del derecho a la alimentación, establecido en la Declaración Universal de los Derechos Humanos y el Pacto de Derechos Económicos, Sociales y Culturales. En el documento preparatorio de dicha conferencia se señala que el Objetivo 2 de los Objetivos para el Desarrollo Sostenible es relevante en tanto aborda la problemática de la alimentación y la nutrición de una manera más integral y considera la seguridad alimentaria como un derecho humano fundamental, cuya conculcación limita la capacidad de ejercicio de los derechos políticos y el desarrollo de una democracia participativa. En línea con este planteamiento, uno de los objetivos principales de este estudio es conocer el estado del arte que en la subregión ha tenido el enfoque de derechos en las políticas de seguridad alimentaria y nutricional y, en particular, la promoción del derecho humano a la alimentación, |
| Keywords: | HAMBRE, DERECHO A LA ALIMENTACION, AGENDA 2030 PARA EL DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, SEGURIDAD ALIMENTARIA, DERECHOS ECONOMICOS, SOCIALES Y CULTURALES, PROGRAMAS DE ACCION, HUNGER, RIGHT TO FOOD, 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, FOOD SECURITY, PROGRAMMES OF ACTION |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:39861 |
| By: | Angel de la Fuente |
| Abstract: | En el presente trabajo se recopilan, extienden o construyen series regionales y nacionales de movimientos naturales de población, población de derecho, saldos migratorios netos y estructura por edades de la población para el período 1950-2015. También se construye una nueva serie de población residente corregida por migraciones no declaradas que intenta aproximar la población que realmente reside de forma habitual en cada territorio. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2016-14 |
| By: | Alessio Moro; Solmaz Moslehi; Satoshi Tanaka |
| Abstract: | Using new home production data for the U.S., we estimate a model of structural transformation with a home production sector, allowing for both non-homotheticity of preferences and differential productivity growth in each sector. We report two main findings. First, the estimation results show that home services have a lower income elasticity than market services. Second, the slowdown in home labor productivity, started in the late 70s, is a key determinant of the rise of market services. Our counterfactual experiment shows that, without the slowdown, the share of market services would be lower by 5.8% in 2010. |
| Keywords: | Structural Change, Home Production, Services Sector |
| JEL: | E20 E21 L16 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-19 |
| By: | Fernando Jaramillo (Universidad del Rosario - Facultad de Economia); Hubert Kempf (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics); Fabien Moizeau (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between the distribution of individuals' attributes over the pop-ulation and the extent of risk sharing in a risky environment. We consider a society where individuals voluntarily form risk-sharing groups in the absence of financial markets. We obtain a partition of society into distinct coalitions leading to partial risk sharing. When individuals differ only with respect to risk, the partition is homophily-based: the less risky agents congreg-ate together and reject more risky ones into other coalitions. The distribution of risk affects the number and size of these coalitions. It turns out that individuals may pay a lower risk premium in more risky societies. We show that a higher heterogeneity in risk leads to a lower degree of partial risk sharing. The case of heterogenous risk aversion generates similar results. The empirical evidence on partial risk sharing can be understood when the endogenous partition of society into risk-sharing coalitions is taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Risk Sharing,Group Membership |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01075648 |
| By: | Chawarika, Admire |
| Abstract: | Food security is an important aspect of every developing nation in the process of achieving sustainable development. This analysis therefore sought to discuss the methods and techniques which have been used by other researchers to understand food security. The analysis first presented the background on food security which showed the dire state of food insecurity in these nations. Objectives were then formulated on the basis of the presented background. The objectives of the analysis were to determine the factors affecting food security and discussing the methods and techniques which have been used in identifying them. Identifying the emerging issues which are affecting the achievement of food security was also tackled by the analysis. The theoretical framework on which food security is based was discussed in the analysis. This included availability, access and utilization components of the food security. It was important to note that for example the production functions guiding the supply of commodities accounted for the availability component. Empirical studies on food security were then presented to provide the evidence on what researchers have practically found in the field. The issues of household asset holding, climate and trade liberalization were identified as some of the issues affecting the attainment of food security. Emerging constraints were then presented against the theoretical and empirical studies provided by the analysis. These were shown as to negatively affecting the attainment of food security both at household and national level with countries like Zimbabwe being cited. Global climate change, bio-fuels and GMO’s were among the emerging issues which were affecting food security in the developed nations. However the analysis took into cognisance that these emerging issues have also presented an opportunity to meet food security. This can be shown by the GMO’s which have increased agricultural productivity in countries like South Africa. Conclusion and policy recommendations were then formulated based on the findings from the discussion. These included up-scaling nutritional programmes to deal with the utilization aspect. This was done under the background that there can be availability and access without food security as the utilization component is often neglected. Targeted social nets should also be implemented to cushion those households who cannot meet their requirements from normal agricultural activities. |
| Keywords: | Food Security, Developing World, Emerging Issues |
| JEL: | E3 O2 |
| Date: | 2016–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71073 |
| By: | Huy\^en Pham (LPMA) |
| Abstract: | We consider the optimal control problem for a linear conditional McKean-Vlasov equation with quadratic cost functional. The coefficients of the system and the weigh-ting matrices in the cost functional are allowed to be adapted processes with respect to the common noise filtration. Semi closed-loop strategies are introduced, and following the dynamic programming approach in [32], we solve the problem and characterize time-consistent optimal control by means of a system of decoupled backward stochastic Riccati differential equations. We present several financial applications with explicit solutions, and revisit in particular optimal tracking problems with price impact, and the conditional mean-variance portfolio selection in incomplete market model. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.06609 |
| By: | Dino Borie (GREDEG CNRS; University of Nice Sophia Antipolis) |
| Abstract: | We give sufficient conditions to characterize the class of (possibly incomplete) preference relations over lotteries which can be represented by a Bauer simplex of (continuous) expected utility functions that preserve both indifferences and strict preferences. Our result is applied to a model of stochastic choice with the measurement of random expected utility functions and to a model of subjective expected utility with subjective states of the world. |
| Keywords: | Incomplete preferences, expected utility, random utility, random choice, subjective expected utility, states of the world |
| JEL: | D80 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-10 |
| By: | Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew; Gerber, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Despite some improvements in recent years, poverty and food insecurity remain widespread and the main challenges in Ethiopia. Using individual and household level data collected in rural Ethiopia, we examine if aspirations are strongly associated with well-being outcomes, as posited in the aspirations failure framework articulated by Ray (2006) and others. We employ both bivariate and multivariate analyses. We find that aspirations (particularly that of the household head) are indeed strongly associated with the household per-capita income and expenditure and with various triangulating measures of household food (in)security including per-capita calorie consumption, the food consumption score (FCS), the household dietary diversity score (HDDS), and the household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS). Contrary to a few other studies, we also find strong evidence that, in rural Ethiopia, aspirations are positively associated with satisfaction in life and/or happiness. Findings in this study provide suggestive evidence that policies aimed at improving well-being outcomes might benefit from multiple effects (both direct and indirect) if they incorporate aspirations raising strategies. |
| Keywords: | Aspirations, income, poverty, food security, subjective well-being, Ethiopia, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, D03, I31, O12, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:234562 |
| By: | Meriggi, Niccolo; Leuvelf, Koen |
| Abstract: | Trust plays a key role in promoting cooperation, exchanges, and interactions among individuals and therefore it is believed to foster economic and societal development. Sender's behaviour in the popular "investment game" (Berg et al. 1995) is widely employed to measure trust among individuals, but recent economic literature has cast doubts on the accuracy of this measure of trust. These studies, however, were mostly conducted in controlled environmentsm having university students as subject polls. We played the "investment game" with 3320 rural households from 200 villages in the Adamawa region of Cameroon, recording for each participant his expectations of return on the edowment shared as first mover. In addition, participants played two additional games obtained by separating the "investment game" into two sub-games, "Triple dictator game" and "reverse triple dictator game"/ The latter two games were used to measure participants' altruism and distributional preferences. All participants were randomly assigned to two treatments with different secrecy levels to create exogenous variation in social pressure, and measure the effect of social norms on behaviour in investment game. We use behaviour observed in the sub games to test whether senders behaviour in the investment game only measures trust (and therefore a belief in someone else's trustworthiness), and whether trustworthiness in turn is a reciprocation of kindness with kindness, or unkindness with unkindness. We control for risk preferences and other demographics, and find that senders behaviour in the investment game measures mostly trust, but it is not an accurate measure of trust. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Financial Economics, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212455 |
| By: | Amandine Pinget (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Rachel Bocquet (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Caroline Mothe (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | Recent literature explores the determinants of environmental innovations (EI) but rarely addresses obstacles to these innovations. To our knowledge, no previous study accounts for antecedents of EI to explore the various perceived barriers to EI for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Noting the importance of SMEs in European economies, this article identifies the extent to which SMEs perceive barriers to environmental innovations, considering their type, number, and intensity. With a merged data set of 435 French SMEs, we investigate different perceptions of environmentally innovative SMEs, compared with those of technologically innovative SMEs and non-innovative ones, using a multiple treatment model that integrates the antecedents. We thereby analyze SME CEO's perceptions of barriers to EI. The barriers are not only more numerous but also more important for SMEs that engage in environmental innovation activity compared with those that have introduced only technological innovation or those that do not undertake any innovation activity. |
| Keywords: | SME,Multiple treatment model,CEO perceptions,Antecedents,Barriers,Environmental innovation |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01300837 |
| By: | Vassiliki Koutsogeorgopoulou |
| Abstract: | Norway’s predominately public and tuition-fee free tertiary education system encourages participation and has high attainment rates. However, challenges in spending efficiency, study times, skills demand, inclusiveness and quality remain. Also, learning outcomes could improve further. Moreover, few Norwegian universities rank high in international comparisons on the basis of research-related and other indicators, and spending per student or GDP is relatively high. Many small institutions, aiming to meet regional needs, do not reach critical mass in staff and student numbers. Many students take considerable time to finish their studies despite financial incentives, and students from lower income groups have low tertiary participation and completion rates despite a strong focus on inclusiveness. Enrolments remain low in fields such as science and engineering, although they have increased in recent years, and supply shortages in some professional areas indicate room for improvement. Better incentives for both students and institutions to ensure timely completions, with a special emphasis on disadvantaged students and labour market needs, a structure that paves the way for adequately sized institutions, and effective governance are essential for higher quality education and research. Effective monitoring of the outcomes is also vital. The government’s comprehensive quality-enhancing agenda, with a focus on these fronts, is welcome. This working paper relates to the 2016 OECD Economic Survey of Norway (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-norway.htm). Relever les défis liés à l'enseignement supérieur en Norvège En Norvège, le système d’enseignement supérieur, essentiellement public et sans frais de scolarité, encourage la participation, et les taux de réussite y sont élevés. Toutefois, des difficultés subsistent en termes d’efficience des dépenses, de durée des études, de demande de compétences, d’inclusivité et de qualité. De plus, les retombées de l’enseignement pourraient être encore améliorées. En outre, peu d’universités norvégiennes figurent dans le haut des classements internationaux établis à partir d’indicateurs fondés sur les recherches ou autres, et les dépenses par étudiant ou par rapport au PIB sont relativement élevées. Beaucoup d’établissements de taille modeste ayant vocation à répondre à des besoins régionaux n’atteignent pas la masse critique en termes d’effectifs et de nombre d’étudiants. Nombre d’étudiants mettent énormément de temps à finir leurs études, malgré les incitations financières, et les étudiants issus de groupes à faible revenu sont peu nombreux à fréquenter l’enseignement supérieur et leur taux de réussite est faible, malgré la priorité donnée à l’inclusivité. Même s’ils ont augmenté au cours des dernières années, les effectifs restent faibles dans des domaines comme la science et l’ingénierie, et les pénuries d’offre dans certains domaines professionnels sont le signe qu’une marge d’amélioration existe. Pour améliorer la qualité de l’enseignement et de la recherche, il est essentiel d’instaurer, en direction des étudiants comme des établissements, de meilleures incitations afin de garantir un achèvement des cycles d’études dans des délais convenables, en mettant tout particulièrement l’accent sur les étudiants défavorisés et les besoins du marché du travail, de mettre en place une structure propre à favoriser l’émergence d’établissements ayant une taille adéquate et de prévoir une gouvernance efficace. Assurer un suivi efficace des résultats est également indispensable. Le vaste programme d’amélioration de la qualité adopté par le gouvernement, qui met l’accent sur tous ces points, est le bienvenu. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Norvège 2015 (www.oecd.org/fr/eco/etudes/etude-econom ique-norvege.htm). |
| Keywords: | education, institutions, reform, students, accreditation, accréditation, étudiants, réforme, institutions, éducation |
| JEL: | I22 I23 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1285-en |
| By: | Trifkovic, Neda |
| Abstract: | Using an original dataset from the Vietnamese catfish sector, I analyze the impact of vertical coordination options, namely contract farming and vertical integration on farm performance. Farm performance is measured in terms of yield and revenue per hectare. The effects of vertical coordination are estimated using a maximum simulated likelihood estimator and a two-stage least square regression with instrumental variables to account for exogenous farm and household characteristics and the sample selection bias. The results show that vertically integrated farms have substantially higher yields and revenue per hectare than non-integrated farms. The levels of gains, which can be attributed to integration, are large and consistent under different estimation procedures. There is no difference between non-integrated and contract farms in terms of farm performance. |
| Keywords: | International Development, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211930 |
| By: | Antoine D'Autume (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics); Katheline Schubert (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics); Cees Withagen (Department of Economics - VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | International di¤erences in fuel taxation are huge, and may be justi…ed by different local negative externalities that taxes must correct, as well as by di¤erent preferences for public spending. In this context, should a worldwide uniform carbon tax be added to these local taxes to correct the global warming externality? We address this question in a second best framework à la Ramsey, where public goods have to be …nanced through distortionary taxation and the cost of public funds has to be weighted against the utility of public goods. We show that when lump-sum transfers between countries are allowed for, the second best tax on the polluting good may be decomposed into three parts: one, country-speci…c, dealing with the local negative externality, a second one, country-speci…c, dealing with the cost of levying public funds, and a third one, global, dealing with the global externality and which can be interpreted as the carbon price. Our main contribution is to show that the uniformity of the carbon price should still hold in this second best framework. Nevertheless, if lump-sum transfers between governments are impossible to implement, international di¤erentiation of the carbon price is the only way to take care of equity concerns. keywords: carbon price, second best, Pigovian taxation |
| Keywords: | carbon price, second best, Pigovian taxation |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01300261 |
| By: | Kaushal Kishore (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | In a symmetric model of tax competition, we support the claim in Haupt and Peters (2005) that a non-preferential regime generates higher tax revenues compared to a preferential regime when investors have home bias. Further, we show that a complete ban on preferential taxation is desirable even when capital base is in?finitely elastic. |
| Keywords: | Tax competition, Nash Equilibrium, Non-preferential regime |
| JEL: | C72 F20 H26 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201632 |
| By: | Chu, Yu-Wei Luke (Victoria University of Wellington); Gershenson, Seth (American University) |
| Abstract: | Twenty-three states and the District of Columbia have passed medical marijuana laws. Previous research shows that these laws increase marijuana use among adults. In this paper, we estimate the effects of medical marijuana laws (MML) on secondary and post-secondary students' time use using time diaries from the American Time Use Survey. We apply a difference-in-differences research design and estimate flexible fixed effects models that condition on state fixed effects and state-specific time trends. We find that on average, part-time college students in MML states spend 42 fewer minutes on homework, 37 fewer minutes attending class, and 60 more minutes watching television than their counterparts in non-MML states. However, we find no effects of MMLs on secondary or full-time college students. These results provide evidence on the mechanisms through which marijuana use affects educational outcomes, young peoples' behavioral responses to MMLs (and reduced costs of obtaining marijuana), and that the impact of MMLs on student outcomes are heterogeneous and stronger among disadvantaged students. |
| Keywords: | time use, medical marijuana, unintended consequences |
| JEL: | I18 K32 K42 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9887 |
| By: | Dhaval M. Dave; Nadia Doytch; Inas Rashad Kelly |
| Abstract: | Nutrition is a key input in the health production function, and a better understanding of how we eat can aid in guiding effective policy change towards better population health. This study documents prevalence rates, trends in, and potential correlates of nutrient intake for panels of countries, categorized by geographical regions and levels of development. We assemble data from 209 countries, spanning 51 years (1961-2011), based on original data compilations using 960 country-years for BMI, 370 country-years for glucose, and 321 country-years for cholesterol. Our estimates inform the nature and scope of nutrient intake on a global scale, and contribute towards an understanding of the drivers of the general upward trend in food intake and obesity. The cross-national trends, across countries spanning the spectrum of economic development and geographic regions, suggest that simply analyzing aggregate caloric intake masks the heterogeneity in trends for the various food groups. Food groups analyzed include cereals, sugars and sweeteners, vegetable oils, meat, starch, milk, fruits, animal fats, alcoholic beverages, oil crops, pulses, vegetables, fish, and eggs. Fixed effects regression analyses reveal that caloric intake is strongly associated with hunger depth, body mass index, cholesterol levels, and glucose levels. Moreover, changes in real GDP per capita, labor force participation, and health care measures in a nation can partly explain the increase in caloric intake. We note that substantial heterogeneity remains. While these associations should not be interpreted as causal, they provide a first step towards understanding shifts in aggregate eating patterns across the globe and levels of economic activity. |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22179 |
| By: | Dilem Yıldırım (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the empirical validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis between Turkey and its four major trading partners, the European Union, Russia, China and the US. Accounting for the possible nonlinear nature of real exchange rates, mainly due to the existence of transaction costs, we employ a battery of recently developed nonlinear unit root tests. Empirical results reveal that nonlinear unit root tests deliver stronger evidence in favor of the PPP hypothesis when compared to the conventional unit root tests only if nonlinearities in real exchange rates are correctly specified. |
| Keywords: | Purchasing Power Parity, Real Exchange Rate, Nonlinearity, Smooth Transition |
| JEL: | C22 C61 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1604 |
| By: | David M. Brogan; Elias Mossialos |
| Abstract: | Over the past year, two major policy initiatives have been introduced focusing on stimulating antibiotic development for human consumption. The European Investment Bank has announced the development of the Infectious Disease Financing Facility (IDFF) and the British government commissioned the Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, led by Jim O’Neill. Each constitutes a major effort by the European community to address the evolving crisis of antimicrobial resistance. Though both have similar goals, the approaches are unique and worthy of consideration. This manuscript utilizes a previously published framework for evaluation of antibiotic incentive plans to clearly identify the strengths and weaknesses of each proposal. The merits of each proposal are evaluated in how they satisfy four key objectives: 1) Improve the overall net present value (NPV) for new antibiotic projects; 2) Enable greater participation of Small to Medium Sized Enterprises (SME); 3) Encourage participation by large pharmaceutical companies; 4) Facilitate cooperation and synergy across the antibiotic market. The IDFF seeks to make forgivable loans to corporations with promising compounds, while the O’Neill group proposes a more comprehensive framework of early stage funding, along with the creation of a stable global market. Ultimately, the proposals may prove complementary and if implemented together may form a more comprehensive plan to address an impending global crisis. Substantial progress will only be made on these efforts if action is taken at an international level, therefore we recommend consideration of these efforts at the upcoming G20 summit. |
| Keywords: | International Disease Financing Facility; review of antimicrobial resistance; antibiotic development |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2016–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66237 |
| By: | Liliya Leopold; Thomas Leopold |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the effects of divorce on educational gaps in mothers’ economic resources. The results shed new light on two opposing theoretical positions that have informed research on social inequality in the consequences of divorce. Recent extensions of the “diverging destinies” perspective posit that divorce is more consequential among the disadvantaged than among the privileged. The notion of “divorce as an equalizer” posits the reverse. Based on data from the German SOEP, we estimated correlated random-effects models to examine educational gaps in divorce-related changes of mothers’ household income and risk of poverty. The results are inconsistent with the diverging destinies perspective, as educational gaps in mothers’ economic resources did not widen after divorce. Instead, we found partial support for the competing notion of divorce as an equalizer, as higher educated mothers experienced larger declines in household income. Educational gaps in the risk of poverty remained constant. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp836 |
| By: | Silvia Miranda-Agrippino (Bank of England; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)) |
| Abstract: | The use of narrow time frames to measure monetary policy surprises using interest rate futures is potentially not sufficient to guarantee their exogeneity as proxies for monetary policy shocks. Raw monetary “surprises" are, in fact, predictable. These findings are interpreted as suggesting that time-varying risk premia and news shocks are likely to be captured in the measurement. The resulting violation of the identifying assumptions in Proxy SVARs induces non-trivial distortions in the estimation of the contemporaneous transmission coefficients: consequences for the estimation of structural IRFs can be dramatic, both qualitatively and quantitatively. This paper analyses the informational content of monetary surprises and proposes a new method to construct futures-based external instruments that conditions on both central banks' and market participants' information sets. Identification of monetary policy shocks via the orthogonal proxies is shown to retrieve contemporaneous transmission coefficients that are in line with macroeconomic theory even in small, potentially informationally insufficient VARs. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Surprises, Identification with External Instruments, Monetary Policy, Expectations, Information Asymmetries, Event Study, Proxy SVAR |
| JEL: | C36 E44 E52 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1613 |
| By: | Jha, Girish; Kumar, Rajeev; Singh, Alka; Pal, Suresh |
| Abstract: | The expenses on energy based inputs have registered a phenomenal increase since the 1990s in Indian agriculture. The use of energy intensive inputs is higher on marginal farms than on large farms. In view of increasing share of energy costs, this paper examined the transmission mechanism of increase in energy prices in agricultural commodity markets in India using monthly wholesale price indices during April 1994 to March 2014. In order to assess the effect of deregulation of some petroleum products since April 2002, study period was divided into two sub-periods (April 1994 to March 2004 and April 2004 to March 2014), besides analyzing for full period. The co-integration analysis indicated evidence of parallel movement between prices of energy and all selected agricultural commodities after deregulation, which means higher transmission between crude oil and these commodity prices. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural commodity prices, Cost of cultivation, Crude oil prices, India, Multivariate co-integration, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, O13, Q11, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211805 |
| By: | Majiwa, Eucabeth Bosibori Opande; Lee, Boon; Wilson, Clevo |
| Abstract: | Total factor productivity (TFP) of agriculture for eighteen African countries is measured using panel data from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations database for the period 1980 to 2007. Using the Färe-Primont productivity index, TFP was decomposed into measures of technical and efficiency change. The efficiency change was further decomposed into measures of technical, mix and scale efficiency changes. The results reveal TFP and technical change growth rates of 0.85% and 1% respectively. In the same period there is a decline in total technical productivity efficiency, mix efficiency, residual scale efficiency and scale mix efficiency change of 0.15%, 0.23%, 0.02% and 0.25% respectively while technical efficiency improved by 0.1%. From the results it is evident that the main driving force of TFP growth is technological progress while negative efficiency levels are contributing to reduced average productivity growth. Promotion of irrigation facilities, improving governance, improving mechanization and reducing land fragmentation are identified as necessary measures to improve TFP growth. |
| Keywords: | Färe-Primont TFP index, technical efficiency, scale, mix efficiency changes, technical change, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212769 |
| By: | Janzen, Matthew G.; Riley, John Michael; Coatney, Kalyn T. |
| Abstract: | The evolution of the factors that impact profitability will always be of concern for agribusiness firms. The cattle feeding industry is continually evolving as a result of technological advancements and evolving population genetics aimed to meet consumer demand. To empirically identify and make relevant the potential for changing importance of various profit components, symmetric variables and standardized betas were directly compared to research conducted in the 1990’s using a more recent data series ranging from 2005 to 2013. The results of the analysis indicate that output prices of fed cattle and input prices of feeder cattle, though still the most influential, are now less impactful to feedlot profits relative to animal performance variables (e.g. average daily gain and feed-to-gain). These results provide intuitive reasoning for the recent development and use of beta agonists to mitigate the risk of lower performance, at the potential cost of negatively impacting consumer demand. |
| Keywords: | Profitability, Cattle Feeding, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Q12, Q13, D24, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230104 |
| By: | Gwenaëlle Lairet (LEMNA - ECOLE DES MINES - Mines Nantes - Mines Nantes - Institut Mines-Télécom - LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | La perception du risque amplifie ou atténue la réponse au risque (Kasperson et Kasperson, 1996). Notreétude de cas sur une Supply Chain de médecine nucléaire montre que la perception du risque lié à la radioactivité amène les acteurs à ne pas prendre en considération les risques logistiques d'une Supply Chain en flux tendu, alors même que ces risques constituent une menace au bon déroulement de l'activité de soin. Cette recherche permet aux gestionnaires de comprendre l'impact de la perception des risques sur l'activité et les encourage à tendre vers une vision exhaustive des risques pour une meilleure performance de leur organisation. |
| Keywords: | médecine nucléaire,logistique hospitalière,gestion du risque |
| Date: | 2014–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01146793 |
| By: | Berg-Andersson, Birgitta; Kotilainen, Markku |
| Abstract: | Finland’s merchandise exports to Russia have decreased by 44 per cent between 2012 and 2015. Major part of this is due to the collapse of the oil prices and due to the related depreciation of the Russian Rouble. Both have weakened the purchasing power of Russian enterprises and households, especially with respect to foreign goods and services. The sanctions set due to the Ukrainian crisis have strengthened this decline. The sanctions set by the EU towards Russia have had a rather small effect on Finnish exports to Russia. This is already due to the fact that the share of the sanctioned product groups was small before the crisis, just about a half of a per cent. The counter sanctions set by Russia towards food exports of the EU countries have in turn had a much greater negative effect. The share of the sanctioned product groups was about 5 per cent of Finnish goods exports to Russia. These sanctions have had a substantial negative effect on the exports and profitability of the dairy and meat industries as well as of agriculture. |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:45 |
| By: | FUJII Daisuke; ONO Yukako; SAITO Yukiko |
| Abstract: | A substantial fraction of international trade is facilitated by wholesalers, which enable manufacturers to indirectly export their products to foreign markets. Using large-scale Japanese interfirm transaction network data, this paper unveils the features of both indirect and direct exporters. We first build a simple Melitz-type model of trade in which firms can also export indirectly via intermediaries. The model predicts sorting of firms to direct, indirect, and non-exporters along the size dimension. This pattern is confirmed in the data as the distributions of sales, in-degree (the number of suppliers), out-degree (the number of customers), and labor productivity are ordered for direct, indirect, and non-exporters in terms of first order stochastic dominance. We then perform multinomial logit analysis for the three modes of export. Consistent with the model, the estimated intercept is lower and slope of sales is steeper for direct exporting. We also find that in-degree raises the probability of direct exporting, implying a cost sharing mechanism of firms with more suppliers. Out-degree raises the probability of exporting in general (both indirect and direct). This implies a higher product appeal and broader demand base for firms which have more customers in the domestic market. Industry heterogeneity in the propensity of indirect and direct exporting is also analyzed. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16068 |
| By: | Avci, S. Burcu; Yucel, Eray |
| Abstract: | Effectiveness of monetary policy depends on the degree to which policy interest rate affects all other financial prices, including the entire term structure of interest rates, credit rates, exchange rates and asset prices. An effective monetary policy framework can be seen as a pre-condition for well-functioning financial markets. However, effectiveness of the monetary policy is not straightforward to measure and requires empirical work to understand the effects of financial infrastructure, competitiveness of financial markets as well as current economic conditions. This paper examines the effectiveness of the monetary policy in Turkey by focusing on the interest rate pass-through behavior by means of an Interacted Panel Vector Autoregressive (IPVAR) approach. The results suggest that policy rate innovations transmit fully in less than eight months. Regulatory quality of the country, competition, liquidity, and profitability of banking sector, dollarization and exchange rate flexibility, inflation, and term structure have a positive effect on interest rate pass-through. Short-term credit ratio, GDP growth, monetary growth, and capital inflows have a negative effect. |
| Keywords: | Interest Rate Pass-through; Deposit and Credit Channels; Policy and Market Rates; Banking Sector; Interacted Panel Vector Autoregressive Methodology |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70848 |
| By: | Cordero, José Manuel; Pedraja-Chaparro, Francisco; Pisaflores, Elsa C.; Polo, Cristina |
| Abstract: | Measuring local government efficiency is a complex task that has to take into account that they usually operate in a heterogeneous context. Therefore, the estimation of relative efficiency measures of their performance needs to account for the effect of contextual and exogenous variables on the production process. This should assure that the respective measures adequately reflect the portion of inefficiency that may be attributable to local authorities. In this paper, we apply time-dependent conditional frontier estimators to assess the performance of the 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities for the 2009-2014 period. By applying this nonparametric approach, we can avoid the strong assumptions on the specification of the estimated production function required by traditional two-stage methods. Furthermore, we examine the effect of contextual and exogenous variables on municipal efficiency levels and technological change. The results reveal that the recent local reforms introduced after the bailout agreement have slightly enhanced the performance of local authorities, but only for small and medium-sized municipalities. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency, Local governments, Operational environment, Nonparametric estimation, Conditional approach |
| JEL: | D24 H71 H83 |
| Date: | 2016–04–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70674 |
| By: | INOUE Hiroyasu |
| Abstract: | This study examines the difference in the size of avalanches among industries triggered by demand shocks, which can be rephrased by control of the economy or fiscal policy, and by using the production-inventory model and observed data. In addition, we investigate how differently demand shocks affect each firm by using control theory that utilizes network topology. We obtain the following results. (1) The size of avalanches follows power law. (2) The mean sizes of avalanches for industries are diverse, but their standard deviations highly overlap. (3) We compare the simulation with an input-output table and with the actual policies and find them to be compatible. (4) The expectations about becoming involved in avalanches are diverse and depend on the industries. (5) It is difficult for service industries and small firms to be affected by the control. On the other hand, mining, manufacturing, and wholesale industries are strongly affected by the control. (6) If we clip a network in descending order of capital size, we do not lose the control effect. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16044 |
| By: | Mohd Shahwahid H.O. (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, 43410, Serdang, Malaysia) |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the impacts of the 2013 haze on the people and economy of Peninsular Malaysia. The economic cost of the June 2013 haze was estimated to be MYR 1.49 billion (0.48% of the GDP); total cost of illnesses due to haze effects was MYR 78.03 per household (MYR 410.6 million for the whole peninsula) or 27.48% of the total cost; cost of medical treatment and hospitalization, MYR 22.59 per household (MYR 118.9 million); cost of medical-related leaves taken, MYR 38.54 per household (MYR 202.8 million); reduced activity days, MYR 13.17 per household (MYR 69.3 million); purchasing air pollution masks as protection, MYR 3.73 per household (MYR 19.6 million); and loss of income opportunities, MYR 182.05 per household (MYR 958 million), which was 64.11% of the total economic cost. Malaysians appear to have gotten used to the haze and tend to continue with their lives as normal, albeit taking measures to deal with its impacts. The willingness to participate in the insurance scheme to avoid a decline in quality of life due to haze was supported by only 37.5% of those surveyed. Their average willingness to pay was only MYR 23.90 per household (MYR 125.8 million) or 8.42% of the total economic cost of the haze. |
| Keywords: | Malaysia, Pollution Control, Pollution Impacts and Health, Damage Valuation |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016013 |
| By: | Götz, Martin R.; Tröger, Tobias |
| Abstract: | An important prerequisite for the efficiency of bail-in as a regulatory tool is that debt holders are able to bear the cost of a bail-in. Examining European banks' subordinated debt we caution that households may be investors in bail-in able bonds. Since households do not fulfil the aforementioned prerequisite, we argue that European bank supervisors need to ensure that banks' bail-in bonds are held by sophisticated investors. Existing EU market regulation insufficiently addresses mis-selling of bail-in instruments. |
| Keywords: | bail-in,BRRD,subordinated debt,EU market regulation |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:35 |
| By: | Lyu, Kaiyu; Barre, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Risk aversion is a key determinate in risk management in the agricultural insurance market. Based on the unique datasets of risk preference experiment and maize producer survey in maize production areas in China, this paper explores the determinants of farmers’ CIP participation and scrutinizes the role of risk aversion in farmers’ CIP decision. Results show that risk aversion plays an important role in CIP decision, not only in the form of its’ direct effect, but also in the form of interaction term together with loss expected. We also find the purchase experience, CIP environment (village purchase ratio) and contract items (insured amount) are significant determinates in the CIP purchase decision. No significant evidence is found that serious adverse selection exists in the sampling areas. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212199 |
| By: | Murphy, David (Bank of England); Vasios, Michalis (Bank of England); Vause, Nicholas (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | The requirement to post initial margin on derivatives transactions is a key feature of the post-crisis reforms of the OTC derivatives markets. Initial margin requirements are usually determined by risk-based models. These models typically require increased margin in stressed conditions: they are procyclical. This procyclicality causes a liquidity burden on market participants which sometimes falls when they are least able to bear it. In this paper we study a variety of tools which have been proposed to mitigate the procyclicality of initial margin requirements. Three of these tools are proposed in European regulation; the other two are new proposals which offer attractive procyclicality mitigation features. The behaviour of all five tools is studied in a simulation framework. We examine the extent to which each tool mitigates procyclicality, and at what cost in demanding unnecessary margin compared to a benchmark unmitigated model. Our findings indicate that all of the tools are useful in mitigating procyclicality to some extent, but that the optimal calibration of each tool in a particular situation depends on the relative weights placed by the modeller on the objectives of minimizing procyclicality on the one hand and minimizing undesirable overmargining in periods of low volatility on the other. This suggests that it may be appropriate to consider moving from tools-based procyclicality regulation to one based on the desired outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Central counterparty; central clearing; initial margin; margin models; OTC derivatives; procyclicality |
| JEL: | G17 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0597 |
| By: | Kyle, Albert S.; Obizhaeva, Anna A.; Tuzun, Tugkan |
| Abstract: | This paper studies invariance relationships in tick-by-tick transaction data in the U.S. stock market. Over the 1993–2001 period, the estimated monthly regression coefficients of the log of trade arrival rate on the log of trading activity have an almost constant value of 0.666, strikingly close to the value of 2/3 predicted by the invariance hypothesis. Over the 2001–14 period, the estimated coefficients rise, and their average value is equal to 0.79, suggesting that the reduction in tick size in 2001 and the subsequent increase in algorithmic trading resulted in a more intense order shredding in more liquid stocks. The distributions of trade sizes, adjusted for differences in trading activity, resemble a log-normal before 2001; there is clearly visible truncation at the round-lot boundary and clustering of trades at even levels. These distributions change dramatically over the 2001–14 period with their means shifting downward. The invariance hypothesis explains about 88 percent of the cross-sectional variation in trade arrival rates and average trade sizes; additional explanatory variables include the invariance-implied measure of effective price volatility. |
| Keywords: | market microstructure ; transactions data ; market frictions ; trade size ; tick size ; order shredding ; clustering ; TAQ data |
| JEL: | G10 G23 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-34 |
| By: | Aidas Masiliunas (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS) |
| Abstract: | Path-dependence in coordination games may lead to lock-in on inefficient outcomes, such as adoption of inferior technologies (Arthur, 1989) or inefficient economic institutions (North, 1990). We aim to find conditions under which lock-in is overcome by developing a solution concept that makes ex-ante predictions about the adaptation process following lock-in. We assume that some players are myopic, forming beliefs according to fictitious play, while others are sophisticated, anticipating the learning process of the myopic players. We propose a solution concept based on a Nash equilibrium of the strategies chosen by sophisticated players. Our model predicts that no players would switch from the efficient to the inefficient action, but deviations in the other direction are possible. Three types of equilibria may exist: in the first type lock-in is sustained, while in the other two types lock-in is overcome. We determine the existence conditions for each of these equilibria and show that the equilibria in which lock-in is overcome are more likely and the transition is faster when sophisticated players have a longer planning horizon, or when the history of inefficient coordination is shorter. |
| Keywords: | Game theory, Learning, Lock-in, Farsightedness, Coordination |
| JEL: | C73 D83 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1615 |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (South Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) |
| Abstract: | The Improving Connectivity to Support Livelihoods and Gender Equality project (JFPR 9143) sought to to improve connectivity and quality of life of conflict-affected and isolated poor communities in selected districts of the Eastern and North Central provinces of Sri Lanka, and supported the rehabilitation of over 290 kilometers of rural access roads. |
| Keywords: | sri lanka, gender equality, women's livelihoods, sri lankan women, road connectivity, access to markets, access to education, health care access, vulnerability analysis, rural transportation, jfpr grant 9143, adb grants, conflict-affected communities, trincomalee, batticaloa, anuradhapura, polonnaruwa |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt157689 |
| By: | Maganga, Assa; Malakini, Memory |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the economic impact of climate on Malawian Agriculture using the theory of Ricardian rents. We use cross-sectional data on climate, hydrological, soil and household level data for a sample of 8,832 households. The results show that climate affects net farm revenue. There is a non-linear relationship between temperature and revenue on one hand and between precipitation and revenue on the other. Estimated marginal impacts suggest that global warming is counter-productive to net farm revenue. The empirical analysis reveals that 2.5°C increase in warming results in predicted losses of US$0.0081 billion and doubling warming to 5°C amplifies the losses to US$0.018 billion. Reducing precipitation by 7% trims net revenue by 8.13% on a per hectare basis. Undoubtedly, 14% reduction in precipitation is predicted to cause reasonably larger losses of about US$0.1161 billion. It can be inferred that this significantly demonstrates Malawi‟s dependence on rain fed agriculture. |
| Keywords: | climate change, agriculture, net farm revenue, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q1, Q5, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212208 |
| By: | Sebastián Higuera Pedraza; José Libardo Mejía Ciro |
| Abstract: | Los Modelos Educativos Flexibles son dirigidos principalmente a niños y niñas de poblaciones vulnerables, generalmente ubicadas en áreas rurales, en donde el gobierno busca resolver los problemas de acceso y participación de distintas comunidades dentro del sistema educativo convencional. En estos modelos se encuentra el de Postprimaria, el cual permite que los niños, niñas y jóvenes del sector rural puedan acceder al ciclo de educación básica secundaria. El presente trabajo busca evaluar el programa de Postprimaria sobre los niveles de asistencia a clases. A través del método de variables instrumentales se estimó el efecto del programa, y se encontró que efectivamente los individuos que pertenecen al Postprimaria aumentan su asistencia a clases en comparación con aquellos que no participan de este programa. Por otro lado, mediante el método de emparejamiento se encontró que el programa no tiene efectos significativos sobre la asistencia a clase, no obstante para esta metodología se requieren supuestos muy fuertes sobre el comportamiento de los individuos que en realidad no se podrían cumplir. |
| Keywords: | Modelos Educativos Flexibles, asistencia a clases, variables instrumentales, evaluación de impacto, Propensity Score Matching |
| JEL: | C26 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:014448 |
| By: | Halicioglu, Ferda; Ketenci, Natalya |
| Abstract: | This research presents first empirical time series evidence of the impact of international trade on environmental quality in the case of transition countries. The linkages between international trade and environmental quality are well established both theoretically and empirically in the literature. However, the empirical evidence relating to transition countries is non-existent as far as this study is concerned. Thus, our research aims at filling this gap. To this extent, fifteen transition countries are selected in order to test the impact of international trade on environmental quality. An econometric model between carbon emissions, energy use, income and trade openness is formed. The econometric model was estimated via ARDL approach to cointegration and GMM procedures. The econometric results from both econometric techniques support the existence of the EKC hypothesis only in three transition countries: Estonia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. As for the impact of trade on environmental quality, the econometric results from both techniques vary in different transition countries. To this extent, the displacement hypothesis is validated in the case of Armenia, Estonia, Latvia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The paper also discusses policy implications of the empirical results as well as offering policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | International trade, Environmental quality, Cointegration, Transition countries |
| JEL: | C22 F1 F18 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71097 |
| By: | Tamon Asonuma |
| Abstract: | Emerging countries experience real exchange rate depreciations around defaults. In this paper, we examine this observed pattern empirically and through the lens of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The theoretical model explicitly incorporates bond issuances in local and foreign currencies, and endogenous determination of real exchange rate and default risk. Our quantitative analysis replicates the link between real exchange rate depreciation and default probability around defaults and moments of the real exchange rate that match the data. Prior to default, interactions of real exchange rate depreciation, originated from a sequence of low tradable goods shocks with the sovereign’s large share of foreign currency debt, trigger defaults. In post-default periods, the resulting output costs and loss of market access due to default lead to further real exchange rate depreciation. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign debt defaults;Real exchange rates;Exchange rate depreciation;Argentina;Debt burden;Debt service payments;External debt;Econometric models;Sovereign Defaults, External Debt, Real Exchange Rate, Currency Composition of Debt, Bond Spreads, exchange, default, exchange rate, defaults, International Lending and Debt Problems, Asset Pricing, All Countries, |
| Date: | 2016–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/37 |
| By: | Jonathan F. Fox (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Kai P. Willführ (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Alain Gagnon (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Lisa Dillon; Eckart Voland |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the relationship between large families and the probability of offspring survival, marriage, and fertility across the historical populations of the Quebec (1670-1799) and Krummhörn regions (1720-1874). Both populations exist in agriculturally based economies, but differ in important ways. The Krummhörn population faced a fixed supply of land, which was concentrated amongst a small number of farmers. Most individuals were landless agricultural workers who formed a relatively competitive labor supply for the large farmers. In contrast, individuals in Quebec had access to a large supply of land, but with far fewer available agricultural workers, had to rely on their family to develop and farm that land. Results indicate that more siblings of the same gender were generally associated with increases in mortality during infancy and childhood, later ages of first marriage, and fewer numbers of children ever born. For mortality and age at first marriage, the effects of sibling formation appear strongest in the Krummhörn region. This indicates that although sibship effects appear in both ecological contexts, that the context of the region mattered in determining their magnitude. |
| Keywords: | Canada, Germany, child mortality, historical demography, reproduction, siblings |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2016-002 |
| By: | Garr, Dillon; Taylor, Mykel |
| Abstract: | Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) contracts take land out of production for at least ten years, hindering production flexibility in exchange for a guaranteed annual payment. This article analyzes the question of whether having a CRP contract on a parcel of land changes that parcel’s value by employing a hedonic model using data from 2005-2014 on agricultural land sales in Kansas. Results indicate CRP contracts reduce sale price by an average of 11 percent. However, the reduction in sale price is larger in periods of high farm profitability and smaller in periods of low farm profitability. |
| Keywords: | conservation reserve program, CRP, hedonic model, land value, Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q15, Q24, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230146 |
| By: | von Germeten, Jan-Paul; Hartmann, Monika |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to identify the determinants of suppliers’ intensity of participation in the EU school fruit scheme (SFS) based on the example of the SFS in the German federal state North Rhine-Westphalia. In 2013/2014 approx. 100 suppliers including many agricultural enterprises or farm shops took part in a telephone survey. The data was processed by a factor analysis. Multivariate regression analyses were used to examine the determinants of intensity of participation. The findings reveal that the intensity of participation is influenced by the buyer-supplier-relationship, performance indicators and different types of costs. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211915 |
| By: | Lee, Seung Jung; Stebunovs, Viktors |
| Abstract: | We exploit the cross-state, cross-time variation in bank tangible capital ratios-brought about by bank branch deregulation on a state-by-state basis-to identify the effects of bank capital pressures on employment and firm dynamics during two waves of changes in bank capital regulation. We show that stronger capital pressures temporarily slowed down growth in employment in industries that depend on external finance, retarding growth in the average size of firms rather than in the number of firms. Such effects were particularly strong for smaller firms that may not have had access to national capital and bank loan markets. Our findings indicate that a tightening of capital requirements may have significant real effects, in part because of the lack of substitutes for bank loans. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital ratios ; bank capital regulation ; loan substitutability ; employment ; firm dynamics |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G30 J20 L25 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1161 |
| By: | Filer, Randall K.; Hanousek, Jan; Lichard, Tomáš; Torosyan, Karine |
| Abstract: | We analyze the response of tax evasion to the introduction of a flat tax in several transition economies. Using a novel estimator based on household level data, we show that in most of the studied countries there was no discernible effect on the measured size of unreported income following flat tax reform. This may imply that decreases in marginal tax rate may frequently have been accompanied by parallel deterioration in attitudes towards public services and these countries' government in general as the only countries that show a response to the flat tax reform appear to be those where satisfaction with government services increased. Additionally, our results show a pro-cyclicality of the size of the shadow economy that is in line with previous research. |
| Keywords: | consumption-income gap; Flat tax; tax evasion; tax reform; underreporting |
| JEL: | C34 H26 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11229 |
| By: | Adusumilli, Naveen; Davis, Stacia; Fromme, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Addressing irrigation water efficiency continues to emerge as one of the potential solutions to minimize irrigation water use, improve water quality, and enhance soil health. Despite the clear importance of financial information in decision making regarding adoption of irrigation tools, little information is available regarding the profitability outlook of such adoption. Lack of assessment of costs and returns could lead to producers resisting adoption citing profit reductions. Hence, a cost-assessment using the financial information is necessary to evaluate the tools’ economic outlook. By using long-term projections of input prices, crop yield, and crop prices, this paper develops a financial analysis of irrigation using surge valves by calculating annual cash flows and net present value. The analysis is based on demonstration plot results and anecdotal estimates related to water savings and yield improvements in corn and soybeans in northeast Louisiana. The positive estimates for net present value indicates that an investment in irrigation efficiency improvement is an economically sound choice. These estimates can enhance the adoption of irrigation efficiency improvement practices by providing an initial understanding of the overall profitability independent of short-term management decisions. |
| Keywords: | Irrigation, Efficiency, Net Present Value, Profitability, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q10, Q25, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229791 |
| By: | Richard T. Froyen; Alfred V Guender (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | This paper re-examines the merits of including an exchange rate response in Taylor-type interest rate rules for small open economies. Taylor (2001) and Taylor and Williams (2011) express what has been the conventional view: inclusion of the real exchange rate will either add little or might negatively affect the rule’s performance. We argue that developments in the theory of optimal monetary policy for open economies taken together with increased instability in world financial markets warrant a re-examination of the issue. Examining three flexible inflation targeting strategies, we find that a small weight on real exchange rate stability in the loss function is sufficient to improve the performance of Taylor-type rules relative to optimal policy. Gains are substantial for domestic and REX inflation targets because a small weight on real exchange rate fluctuations inhibits the aggressive use of the policy instrument under optimal policy. As real exchange rate stability is a built-in feature of a CPI inflation objective, the gains under a CPI inflation target are considerably lower. A central bank that values real exchange rate stability and follows a Taylor-type rule should respond to the real exchange rate. Doing so reduces relative losses irrespective of the specification of the inflation objective. Only a complete disregard for exchange rate stability bears out the view that there is no substantive role for the real exchange rate in Taylor-type rules. |
| Keywords: | CPI, Domestic, REX Inflation Targeting, Taylor-Type Rules, Timeless Perspective, Real Exchange Rate |
| JEL: | E3 E5 F3 |
| Date: | 2016–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/10 |
| By: | Chen, Ching-mu; Kumagai, Satoru |
| Abstract: | A plan to construct a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Southern Thailand has been proposed many times since the 17th century. The proposed canal would become an alternative route to the over-crowded Straits of Malacca. In this paper, we attempt to utilize a Geographical Information System (GIS) to calculate the realistic distances between ports that would be affected by the Kra Canal and to estimate the economic impact of the canal using a simulation model based on spatial economics. We find that China, India, Japan, and Europe gain the most from the construction of the canal, besides Thailand. On the other hand, the routes through the Straits of Malacca are largely beneficial to Malaysia, Brunei, and Indonesia, besides Singapore. Thus, it is beneficial for all ASEAN member countries that the Kra Canal and the Straits of Malacca coexist and complement one another. |
| Keywords: | Asia, Thailand, Canals, Economic geography, Transportation, Kra Canal, Malacca Straits, GIS, Simulation model |
| JEL: | R13 R40 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper568 |
| By: | Robin Hege (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This article focuses on the price-elasticity of demand for formal home-care received by disabled elderly. In France a public financing system of long-term care for disabled elderly – aged 60 and over – called APA (Allocation Personnalisée d'Autonomie) has been set up in 2001. This policy is based on a partial subsidization of demand for formal home-care so that an out-of-pocket cost remains. It rests on three variables: the department policy, the provider chosen by the recipient and the income level of the recipient. The induced heterogeneity of the out-of-pocket cost allows price-elasticity estimations but compels me to employ two databases. I use the HSM survey – an individual database on disability and health that is representative of the French population – and the Territoire survey which provides information in each region on the APA policy parameters. The combination of these two databases enables me to approximate the out-of-pocket cost for each individual that is the one-hour formal home-care price. I estimate a multi-level model with random effects and find that the price-elasticity of demand for formal home-care has a value of -0.15 at my average point |
| Keywords: | Price-elasticity; formal home-care; geographical equity |
| JEL: | D12 I18 H42 H71 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:16022 |
| By: | Rodriguez, Elsa M.M.; Lupin, Beatriz; Gonzalez, Julia |
| Abstract: | Choice Modelling was applied to assess the importance of attributes and willingness to pay for a fresh potato produced with a low environmental impact production system. Among the stated preference methods, this is the most used to study consumer preferences for attributes of goods with little or no market share. We interviewed 402 individuals, aged 18 and over, in super / hypermarkets and grocery stores. Four different attributes of potato: price, agrochemicals content, cooking quality and treatment were selected according to previous research carried out by the authors. For this purpose, a Conditional Logistic Model (McFadden, 1973) was applied. On average, ceteris paribus, the full sample participants were willing to pay between US$ 0.60 and US$0.49 more per 1kg of potatoes with low agrochemical content. In regards to cooking quality attributes, participants were willing to pay between US$ 0.31 and US$ 0.25 more per kg of high quality potatoes |
| Keywords: | Choice Modelling, willingness to pay, consumers´ preferences, fresh potatoes, Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, C90, D1, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212288 |
| By: | Josephson, Anna Leigh; Michler, Jeffrey D. |
| Abstract: | This article answers the empirical question: what is the relationship between the choice to specialize or diversify in crop production and household poverty status? We use household panel data from Ethiopia and a recently developed parametric method for estimating dynamic binary response models with endogenous contemporaneous regres- sors. Our results provide evidence that households which grow a diverse set of crops are less likely to be poor. Additionally, crop diversity reduces the probability that a house- hold will fall into poverty and reduces the probability that a household will remain in poverty. We conclude that policies which encourage households to specialize in cash crops may be counter-productive while policies which encourage crop diversification may reduce poverty. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212459 |
| By: | Bruno Lamotte (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Aline Valette (LEST - Laboratoire d'économie et de sociologie du travail - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille 2 - Université de Provence - Aix-Marseille 1 - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Economic development, training and employment field, hugely decentralized, is punctuated by several collective actions more or less institutionalized, linked with increasinguse of contractualisation process in public action. In France, the region becomes one of the major places of expression and implementation of " territorial social dialogue " related actions. In this article, three examples of territorial objective contracts or equivalent tools, in Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes and PACA regions, illustrate different configurations of this social dialogue around projects which regroup social partners, employer's organization and unions, Regional Council and regional services of the National State |
| Abstract: | Le champ emploi, formation, développement économique, largement décentralisé, est jalonné de multiples actions collectives plus ou moins institutionnalisées, adossées à la contractualisation croissante de l'action publique. En France, le niveau régional devient l'un des principaux lieux d'expression et de mise en oeuvre de ces actions regroupées sous le terme de dialogue social territorial. Dans ce texte, trois exemples de contrats d'objectifs territoriaux ou instruments assimilés, en Auvergne, Rhône-Alpes et PACA, illustrent des configurations de ce dialogue social de projet qui rassemblent partenaires sociaux, employeurs et salariés, Conseil régional et services de l'Etat en région. . |
| Keywords: | dialogue social territorial, contrats d'objectifs territoriaux, décentralisation, action publique |
| Date: | 2016–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01293689 |
| By: | Tankari, Mahamadou Roufahi; Badiane, Ousmane |
| Abstract: | Given that a diversified food contributes to the individuals' health reinforcement, this analysis has tried to identify the households' food diversity demand determinants in Uganda by using a latent class model. Its implementation reveals several important results. Beyond the traditional determinant (income), on the one hand, one can note that the characteristics of the household influence the food diversity demand with a variable intensity according to the class considered. On the other hand, it appears that the structure of the household is a significant factor determining the food diversity demand. Besides, there is also an area of residence impact on food diversity demand. Consequently, the consideration of this heterogeneity of the population in the formulation of nutritional policies is necessary in order to make those more efficient by targeting households, empowering women, facilitation access to markets or encouraging a diversified agricultural production. |
| Keywords: | Consumer demand, food diversity, determinants of variety, Uganda, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Security and Poverty, D1, Q11, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:230230 |
| By: | Robin Hege (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article focuses on the price-elasticity of demand for formal home-care received by disabled elderly. In France a public financing system of long-term care for disabled elderly – aged 60 and over – called APA (Allocation Personnalisée d'Autonomie) has been set up in 2001. This policy is based on a partial subsidization of demand for formal home-care so that an out-of-pocket cost remains. It rests on three variables: the department policy, the provider chosen by the recipient and the income level of the recipient. The induced heterogeneity of the out-of-pocket cost allows price-elasticity estimations but compels me to employ two databases. I use the HSM survey – an individual database on disability and health that is representative of the French population – and the Territoire survey which provides information in each region on the APA policy parameters. The combination of these two databases enables me to approximate the out-of-pocket cost for each individual that is the one-hour formal home-care price. I estimate a multi-level model with random effects and find that the price-elasticity of demand for formal home-care has a value of -0.15 at my average point. |
| Abstract: | L'objet de cet article est le calcul de l'élasticité-prix de la demande d'aide à domicile des personnes âgées dépendantes. En France, une allocation à destination des personnes âgées dépendantes, appelée Allocation Personalisée d'Autonomie (APA), a été mise en place en 2001. Cette allocation consiste en une solvabilisation partielle de la demande d'aide à domicile. Dans la plupart des cas, lorsqu'ils ont recours à de l'aide professionnelle à domicile les bénéficiaires de l'APA doivent payer un reste-à-charge. Il dépend de la politique du département de résidence du bénéficiaire, du producteur d'aide à domicile choisi et enfin du revenu mensuel de la personne âgée dépendante. Cette variation dans les reste-à-charge permet une identification économétrique de l'élasticité-prix. Afin de réaliser cette estimation j'utilise deux bases de données et à je les apparie : l'enquête “Territoire” qui porte sur les pratiques départementales de mises en œuvre de l'APA et l'enquête “HSM’ qui fournit des informations socio-économiques, de santé et de consommation d'aide des individus. Ceci permet d'approximer un reste à charge individuel, c'est à dire un prix net individuel de l'aide professionnelle à domicile. J'estime un modèle multi-niveaux à effets mixtes et obtiens une valeur de -0,15 pour l'élasticité-prix de la demande d'aide formelle au point moyen. |
| Keywords: | price-elasticity,formal home-care,geographical equity,élasticité-prix,aide professionnelle à domicile,équité géographique |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01306095 |
| By: | Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices and assess its dynamics for a sample of 15 emerging countries over the 1994-2015 period. To this end, we augment the traditional bivariate relationship between the nominal effective exchange rate and inflation by accounting for the inflation environment, monetary policy regime, as well as domestic institutional factors. We show that both the level and volatility of inflation matter in the sense that declining ERPT is evidenced with more stable and anti-inflationary environment. Monetary policy also plays a key role since adopting an inflation target-especially de jure-leads to a significant reduction in ERPT for most countries. Adopting exchange rate targeting regime matters as well, contributing to a diminishing ERPT. Finally, we find evidence that transparency of monetary policy decisions clearly reduces ERPT, while this is not the case for central bank independence. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through; inflation; emerging countries; monetary policy. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 F31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-18 |
| By: | Kaivanto, Kim; Zhang, Peng |
| Abstract: | Air transport Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions estimates differ greatly, depending on the calculation method employed. Among the IPCC, ICAO, DEFRA, and BrighterPlanet calculation methods, the largest estimate may be up to 4.5 times larger than the smallest. Such heterogeneity -- and ambiguity over the true estimate -- confuses the consumer, undermining the credibility of emissions estimates in general. Consequently, GHG emissions estimates do not currently appear on the front page of flight search-engine results. Even where there are differences between alternative flights' emissions, this information is unavailable to consumers at the point of choice. When external considerations rule out alternative travel-modes, the relative ranking of flight options' GHG emissions is sufficient to inform consumers' decision making. Whereas widespread agreement on a gold standard remains elusive, the present study shows that the principal GHG emissions calculation methods produce consistent rankings within specific route-structure classes. Hence, for many consumers, the question of which calculation method to employ is largely irrelevant. But unless GHG emissions information is displayed at the point of decision, it cannot enter into consumers' decision making. A credible and ambiguity-free alternative would thus be to display GHG ranking information on the front page of flight search-engine results. |
| Keywords: | greenhouse gas emissions; carbon footprint computation; scheduled passenger air transport; informed choice; decision making; behavior; policy |
| JEL: | D03 D62 K3 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70923 |
| By: | Heinrich H. Nax |
| Abstract: | In this paper, completely uncoupled dynamics for n-player bargaining are proposed that mirror key behavioral elements of early bargaining and aspiration adjustment models (Zeuthen, 1930; Sauermann and Selten, 118:577–597 1962). Individual adjustment dynamics are based on directional learning adjustments, solely driven by histories of own realized payoffs. Bargaining this way, all possible splits have positive probability in the stationary distribution of the process, but players will split the pie almost equally most of the time. The expected waiting time for almost equal splits to be played is quadratic. |
| Keywords: | bargaining; cooperative game theory; equity; evolutionary game theory; (completely uncoupled) learning |
| JEL: | C71 C73 C78 D83 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:65426 |
| By: | Tilak, Doshi; Fred, Joutz; Lakuma, Corti Paul; Lwanga, Musa; Baltasar, Manzano |
| Abstract: | Recent natural resource discoveries in East Africa provide an enormous opportunity for development. We focus on oil discoveries in Uganda and their expected impact on government revenues. We analyze alternative spending policies of natural resource revenues using a calibrated dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model (DSGE). We use detailed publicly-available information on the upstream oil sector and the fiscal regime to derive realistic cost and government revenue profiles across a range of oil price scenarios. This enables us to project annual production, fixed and variable costs, and government revenues for given global oil price paths. We compare the potential effects of income transfers versus public investment spending, as well as front-loaded versus gradual public investment policies. We also assess the impacts of alternative assumptions on the efficiency of public investment due to constraints on absorptive capacity. In terms of economic welfare, income transfers dominate public investments (whether gradual or front-loaded) given the typically low discount factors for households in low-income developing countries. Similarly, front-loaded investment policies dominate gradual investment policies given the low discount factors. However, our simulations show that as individuals care more about the future (i.e. have a lower discount rate), the welfare order of policies change, as the productivity effect of public investment produces a higher increase in consumption and welfare even though this increase is lagged in time. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Land Economics/Use, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eprcrs:234556 |
| By: | Müller, Tobias; Boes, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of disability insurance (DI) benefits on the labor market decision of existing DI beneficiaries using data from the Swiss Household Panel. We use a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design to identify the effect of DI benefits on the decision of working full-time, part-time or staying out of the labor force by exploiting a discontinuity in the DI benefit award rate. Overall, our results suggest that the Swiss DI system creates substantial lock-in effects which heavily influence the working decision of existing beneficiaries: the benefit receipt increases the probability of working part-time by about 41%-points, decreases the probability of working full-time by about 42%-points but has little or no effects on the probability of staying out of the labor force for the average beneficiary. Therefore, DI benefits induce a shift in the labor supply of existing beneficiaries in the sense that they reduce their work intensity from working full-time to part-time adding a possible explanation for the low DI outflow across the OECD. |
| Keywords: | Disability insurance benefits, Fuzzy regression discontinuity design, Labor market participation, Endogenous switching models, Maximum simulated likelihood |
| JEL: | C35 J20 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70840 |
| By: | Lanfranco, Bruno A.; Ferraro, Bruno; Rostan, Francisco |
| Abstract: | This aim of this paper was to provide empirical evidence of market integration in the beef cattle industry of the MERCOSUR economic bloc. This region possesses the largest commerical bovine herd in the world and explains one quarter of the international trade for beef. The study included size relevant cattle markets located in the four original members of the bloc. The analysis was conducted using a fractional cointegration approach proposed Marinucci and Robinson (2001). The fractional integration parameters and the error term of the cointegration equations were computer using a semi-parametric approach developed by Geweke and Porter-Hudak (1983). The null hypothesis of 'separate markets' could not be rejected even when the general bahavior of the series under analysis encouraged the idea of some market integration. Despite the common trends, their response to specific shocks was dissimilar and, most importantly, the reversion of the disturbed series to equilibrium was always slow. |
| Keywords: | cattle prices, law of one price, market integration, fractional cointegration, Crop Production/Industries, Livestock Production/Industries, C5, F15, Q11, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212030 |
| By: | Khasanov, Shavkat; Djanibekov, Nodir |
| Abstract: | Cotton production contributes considerably to Uzbekistan’s export earnings. The various reforms implemented to increase the operational autonomy of agricultural producers considered the stability of cotton production, yet often at the expense of farm incomes. Options for improving the farm incomes can be achieved through modifications of the cotton policy settings. Such options are analyzed by replacing the present area-based yield prescriptions by tradable cotton targets between cotton-growing farms. As part of ongoing research, the findings indicate the scope for promoting such modification to tradable production targets as it would potentially increase farm revenues, cotton yields, crop diversification, and sustainable water use at the same level of cotton output as today. The net benefits would increase due to the difference in land fertility and location to irrigation canal between contracted farms. However, the sustainability of such policy modifications would depend on strong mechanisms for price negotiation and conflict resolution |
| Keywords: | tradable production targets, pseudo-market price, optimization model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, C61, Q12, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211841 |
| By: | Daniel Rosenblum |
| Abstract: | I investigate whether a large-scale bank expansion program affected parents' decisions to invest in the health and education of their children. From 1977 to 1990, the Indian government implemented a new licensing program to encourage the construction of banks in underserved rural communities. The timing of the bank expansion program is used as an instrument to account for the possible reverse causality of child mortality or education rates affecting bank expansion. An empirical analysis using large-scale Indian surveys finds that states with a more rapid expansion of rural banks did not have significantly lower child mortality overall. However, in households with a first-born daughter, in which discrimination against daughters and in favor of sons is exacerbated, excess female mortality declines with an increase in banks. This occurs through higher male mortality rather than lower female mortality. Similarly, an increase in banks has no effect on daughters' education, but it reduces sons' years of education. Both of these effects occur in a context of more banks causing lower fertility and a reduction in poverty rates, which if anything should lead to reduced child mortality and higher education levels. |
| Keywords: | gender discrimination, child mortality, education, credit constraints, rural banking, India |
| JEL: | J13 K11 O12 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cch:wpaper:160003 |
| By: | Kieron Barclay (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Women are having children later in the developed world. The mean age at first birth has increased in each of the 23 OECD countries since 1970, now averaging 28, and advanced-age fertility has also been increasing. Advanced maternal age is associated with increased risk of poor perinatal outcomes, as well as an increased risk of mortality and cancer in adulthood. The research documenting these negative outcomes, however, neglects the potential benefits of being born at a later date. For a prospective parent, delaying parenthood means that the child is born in a later birth cohort. This is beneficial, as for many important outcomes from health to educational attainment, secular trends are positive. We illustrate this general principle using data from Sweden, and show that the macro level contextual trends outweigh the individual risk factors. As a result, fertility postponement even beyond age 40 is positively associated with long-term offspring outcomes. |
| Keywords: | first birth, maternal age |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-009 |
| By: | María Aguilera-Díaz; Ali Miguel Arrieta-Arrieta; Andrés Fernando Carreño-Castellar; Camila Uribe-Villa |
| Abstract: | El comercio interno mayorista y minorista es una de las principales actividades del Departamento de Bolívar y en particular de Cartagena su capital. Este trabajo aborda la evolución de la actividad por medio de los principales indicadores de producción, mercado laboral y construcción de establecimientos destinados a comercio. Se encontró que el comercio interno, a pesar de sostener aumentos en su valor agregado, perdió participación en el departamento, debido al mayor crecimiento de otros sectores como la construcción y el turismo. No obstante, el comercio hace parte de la rama con mayor porcentaje de ocupados en la ciudad, aunque con una alta informalidad. Por su parte, la construcción licenciada para actividad comercial cedió participación frente a hoteles y bodegas. ******ABSTRACT: Domestic wholesale and retail trade is one of the main activities of the Department of Bolivar and in particular its capital Cartagena. This paper addresses the evolution of this activity through the main indicators of GDP, labor market and construction of establishments for trade. The results show that, despite sustained increases in added valve, local trade has lost participation in the total production, mainly due to the faster growth of sectors such as construction and tourism. Similarly, it is part of the branch with the highest percentage of people employed in the city, but with a high level of informality. On the other hand, the licensed commercial construction activity has been losing share to hotels and warehouses. |
| Keywords: | Comercio, empleo, construcción, Cartagena y Bolívar |
| JEL: | D13 J21 L81 R11 |
| Date: | 2015–12–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000102:014491 |
| By: | Joachim Sicking; Thomas Guhr; Rudi Sch\"afer |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of the Merton model, we consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure, we estimate the pairwise copulas of such portfolio losses. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible in almost every realistic setting. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.06917 |
| By: | Asatryan, Zareh; Castellon, Cesar; Stratmann, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-run fiscal consequences of balanced budget rules (BBR) that are enshrined in a country's constitution. Using historical data dating back to the 19th century and applying a difference-in-difference approach we find that the introduction of a constitutional-BBR reduces government debt-to-GDP and expenditure-to-GDP ratios, on average, by around 11 and 3 percentage points, respectively. We do not find evidence that BBRs affect tax revenues. Our analysis indicates that such rules reduce the probability of experiencing a debt crisis and that the effective enforcement of BBRs can be conditional on the quality of democratic institutions. In addition, we implement an instrumental variable approach by instrumenting the probability of having budget rules on de jure constraints on changing the constitution. This and other tests suggest that the relations we find are largely causal going from BBRs to fiscal outcomes. |
| Keywords: | economic effects of constitutions,fiscal rules,historical public finances,sovereign debt crises |
| JEL: | H50 H60 K10 N40 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16034 |
| By: | Margarita Vilar-Rodríguez (Universidad de A Coruña, Spain); Jerònia Pons-Pons (Universidad de Sevilla, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyze the historical construction of the network of health infrastructures in Spain from very different areas both public and private. The first part provides a first statistical progress of the major infrastructure before approving the compulsory insurance. The second part of the paper analyzes the implementation of compulsory insurance in a context where the state lacked a basic network of public health infrastructure. Within this context, concerts with the private sector were essential. Later, the Plan Nacional de Instalaciones Sanitarias was approved. It was an ambitious and expensive project launched in a country with serious economic problems. From here, several questions arise: How did the dictatorship manage to fund and build the plan?; What role did private health infrastructure play after the approval of this plan?; Did this plan achieve convergence between Spain and Europe in provision of health infrastructure? The paper ends with some conclusions and a future research agenda. |
| Keywords: | Health Insurance, Health Infrastructures, Hospitals, Spain, XIXth-XXth centuries |
| JEL: | I18 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahe:dtaehe:1609 |
| By: | Paulson, Anna L. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Rosen, Richard J. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The 2008 financial crisis brought a focus on the potential for a large insurance firm to contribute to systemic risk. Among the concerns raised was that a negative shock to insurers could lead to a ‘fire sale’ of corporate bonds, a market where insurers are among the largest participants. This paper discusses the existing evidence on life insurance firms and systemic risk, with a focus on the investment grade corporate bond market. We provide some tentative evidence that life insurers tend to absorb liquidity risk by purchasing bonds when the bonds are less liquid than average. However, we do not find evidence that insurers increased bond purchases specifically during the financial crisis leaving open the question of whether insurers would play a stabilizing role in a future crisis. |
| Keywords: | Insurance; Bond; Over-the-Counter (OTC); Trading |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G22 G24 |
| Date: | 2016–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2016-04 |
| By: | Hotori, Eiji |
| Abstract: | Following the collapse of the bubble economy in Japan, banking supervisors and bank examiners were severely criticized by the media as human capital had long been viewed the key element of Japanese banking supervision. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the bank supervisors´ career paths over the long term, including "amakudari" appointments from among the Directors of the Financial Inspection Department of the Ministry of Finance, and the Director-Generals of the Bank Examination Department of the Bank of Japan. The paper analyzes the performance of several regional banks that accepted the appointment of an ex-Director or an ex-Director-General as their president in order to examine whether such an amakudari relationship worsened such banks´ management. The majority of ex-Directors and ex-Director-Generals entered a regional bank or a regional bank II, many of which were already experiencing problems. Regarding the regional banks, lower growth rates of loans were observed in all cases, and lower loan/deposit ratios or higher capital/asset ratios were observed in most. These findings suggest that the link between the amakudari relationship and the bubble economy in the late 1980s was not as straightforwardly negative as is generally considered. |
| Keywords: | financial history,human capital,regional bank |
| JEL: | N25 N35 N45 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:eabhps:1601 |
| By: | Decio Coviello; Andrea Guglielmo; Giancarlo Spagnolo |
| Abstract: | We run a regression discontinuity design analysis to document the causal effect of increasing buyers' discretion on procurement outcomes in a large database for public works in Italy. Works with a value above a given threshold have to be awarded through an open auction. Works below this threshold can be more easily awarded through a restricted auction, where the buyer has some discretion in terms of who (not) to invite to bid. Our main result is that discretion increases the probability that the same firm wins repeatedly, and it does not deteriorate (and may improve) the procurement outcomes we observe. The effects of discretion persist when we repeat the analysis controlling for the geographical location, corruption, social capital and judicial efficiency in the region of the public buyers running the auctions. |
| Keywords: | procurement, restricted auctions, regression discontinuity, regulatory discretion |
| JEL: | D02 D44 C31 L11 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1427 |
| By: | Stark, C. Robert Jr; Bryant, Kelly J |
| Abstract: | The Arkansas Soybean Research Verification Program (AR SRVP) has provided demonstrations of optimal management responses in soybean production for 30 years. This period has seen the adoption of early soybean production systems and increasingly widespread use of various irrigation approaches. Cooperating producers across the state have worked with county agents and state extension specialists to produce crops under top management conditions and refine extension recommendations. Individual field and cooperator agronomic and economic results have been published to benefit producers across the state and beyond. While considerable attention has been given to total costs of production, limited study has been made into the changes in distribution of these costs among expense categories. This study examines changes in magnitude of expenses and percentage distributions among major expense categories. Irrigated, early season soybean production system records are examined for a ten year period to identify expense changes that have been experienced. The distribution of expenses by commonly used categories is then calculated and compared to national results from periodic USDA/NASS surveys. A better understanding of the distributional changes in expenses borne by soybean producers can have benefits in crop enterprise decision making and facilitate financing procedures for both producers and land owners. |
| Keywords: | Soybean, verification program, proportional expense distributions, threshold recommendations, Farm Management, D24, Q10, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230127 |
| By: | Mason, Nicole; Tembo, Solomon |
| Abstract: | Many of the ‘new’ agricultural input subsidy programs (ISPs) in sub-Saharan Africa include among their objectives raising farm incomes and reducing rural poverty, but there is a dearth of empirical evidence on whether ISPs are achieving these objectives. Focusing on the case of Zambia, where ISPs account for approximately 50% of all agricultural sector poverty reduction program expenditures, we use nationally-representative panel survey data to estimate the effects of ISP fertilizer on smallholder farm household incomes, poverty incidence, and poverty severity based on the US$2 and US$1.25/capita/day poverty lines. Panel data (fixed effects and correlated random effects) and instrumental variables/control function methods are used to correct for the potential endogeneity of subsidized fertilizer to household incomes and poverty status. Results suggest that although ISP fertilizer raises incomes, the increase is not large enough or widely distributed enough to substantively reduce poverty incidence or severity among smallholder farm households in Zambia. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212232 |
| By: | Lizin, Sebastien; Van Passel, Steven; Schreurs, Eloi |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on the findings from discrete choice experiments designed to estimate farmers’ perceived costs of land use restrictions, i.e. crop restrictions, additional fertilizing restrictions, and usage restrictions, as opposed to having no such restrictions. To this end, hypothetical land purchasing decisions were simulated based on the information about productivity, lot size, distance to other land, driving time to home, land use restrictions, and price. Farmers from the Campine area (Belgium) were invited to participate in the survey as the agricultural land in this region still faces the effects of historical heavy metal contamination resulting in crop restrictions. For identical pieces of land, we estimate the perceived cost, calculated as a change in the consumer surplus due to having a land use restriction, to be about 46,000 €/ha for the crop restriction, 50,000 €/ha for the usage restriction, and 70,000 €/ha for the fertilizing restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212054 |
| By: | Kazunori Miwa (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the interaction between firms' information acquisition decisions and disclosure of internally acquired information in a Cournot duopoly market. The results are as follows. Given that the precision of firms' private information is constant, mandatory disclosure of information about the industry-wide demand uncertainty can enhance social welfare. However, when the precision of firms' private information is endogenously determined, mandatory disclosure is not always desirable. This is because when disclosure is mandated, firms acquire less precise information compared to the case where acquired information is not disclosed, and hence their internal information environments are deteriorated. This can lead to "unintended consequences," such that disclosure regulation strictly decreases social welfare on the whole. |
| Keywords: | Information acquisition, Disclosure, Duopoly, Social welfare |
| JEL: | L13 M41 M48 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2016-17 |
| By: | Taoual, Safiyah (Kingston University London) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the significance of Islamic Sukuk instruments for stability in the GCC. As a result of the financial crisis of 2007-2008, interest in financial stability has increased. Islamic scholars suggest that Islamic financial institutions and products have the potential to contribute in achieving a more stable economic environment. This paper analyses Sukuk, an Islamic financial instrument with both bond and equity traits; and how it can contribute to achieving a more sound and resilient economic environment in the GCC. Findings suggest that Sukuk do have the potential to effectively contribute to the GCC’s economic stability; as long as they adhere to the pure Islamic financial principles and avoid trying to be comparable to conventional bonds. Currently, however there appears a heavy reliance on shorter term issuances, along with the majority of issuances in the USD, a heavy reliance on real estate as both a means of financing an underlying collateral in Islamic securitization; elements which could be destabilising especially during destress. The originality of this paper lies in its empirical contribution, as it, for the first, time sets out systematically the characteristics of Sukuk issuance in the GCC region with respect to Sukuk maturity, issuance currency and sectoral distribution. It also assesses the various Sukuk structures and the underlying risks involved; as well as the impact of collateral in Islamic securitization. |
| Keywords: | Islamic Finance; Sukuk; Financial stability; GCC; Development |
| JEL: | E44 L79 O16 P50 Z12 |
| Date: | 2016–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kngedp:2016_007 |
| By: | Kazuki Tomioka; Rod Tyers |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the contributions of foreign growth (particularly in China), on Japan's domestic economic performance and inequality. While the standard approach to external sources of inequality has emphasized transmission through trade and labor markets, here the emphasis is on financial flows. We begin by exploring this link using a three factor, three sector, two-region dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE), in which the regions are interlinked by both trade and financial flows. To provide an empirical perspective, a lag-augmented vector autoregression (LA-VAR) and a sign restricted vector autoregression (Sign restricted VAR) are estimated. We find convincing evidence through numerical simulations that strong growth in a near neighbor not only retards domestic performance but also raises home inequality. Empirical results suggest that growth in China has a significant delayed effect in aggravating Japanese inequality and its importance in explaining Japanese inequality increases in magnitude over time. |
| Keywords: | Japanese inequality, Foreign growth, Stagnation, Financial linkages, CGE, Lag augmented, Sign restriction, VAR. |
| JEL: | C32 C68 E25 F21 F41 F60 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-21 |
| By: | Alberto Bucci (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Philip Ushchev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-sector model of monopolistic competition with a dierentiated intermediate good and variable elasticity of technological substitution. This setting proves to be well-suited to studying the nature and origins of external increasing returns. We disentangle two sources of scale economies: specialization and competition. The former depends only on how TFP varies with input diversity, while the latter is fully captured by the behavior of the elasticity of substitution across inputs. This distinction gives rise to a full characterization of the rich array of competition regimes in our model. The necessary and sucient conditions for each regime to occur are expressed in terms of the relationships between TFP and the elasticity of substitution as functions of the input diversity. Moreover, we demonstrate that, despite the folk wisdom resting on CES models, specialization economies are in general neither necessary nor sucient for external increasing returns to emerge. This highlights the profound and non-trivial role of market competition in generating agglomeration economies, endogenous growth, and other phenomena driven by scale economies. |
| Keywords: | External Increasing Returns; Variable Elasticity of Substitution; Specialization Eect; Competition Eect |
| JEL: | D24 D43 F12 L13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:134/ec/2016 |
| By: | Arriya Mungsunti (Charles Stuart University) |
| Abstract: | The muang fai irrigation system is a traditional, small-scale, communal irrigation system that has been practiced for centuries in northern Thailand. The value of this traditional system is currently being challenged by modernization, specifically through the introduction of various alternative irrigation technologies, such as the privately-owned underground pump irrigation. This study attempted to determine the various factors that influence farmers’ participation in the muang fai Sop Rong in Chiang Mai province and compared this traditional irrigation system with the underground pump irrigation system by determining which is better in terms of generating economic and environmental benefits. To do this, longan growing farmers, both muang fai system members and those who use underground pumps, were surveyed. The data generated was used to estimate a Logistic model of muang fai participation in an attempt to explain what factors affect the likelihood of a farmer joining the muang fai instead of installing underground pump irrigation. The Propensity Score Matching (PSM) technique was used to estimate the impact of muang fai participation on farm productivity and water use efficiency. Study results suggest that farm characteristics and several social and economic factors influence the possibility of muang fai participation. Results indicate that the farm’s distance to the closest muang fai canal strongly affects farmer participation. The size of the farm is also found to be quite a strong predictor of farmer participation. The relationship is found to be non-linear where probability of participation in muang fai first increases with farm size, but then decreases after a point. |
| Keywords: | Irrigation system, farming, water efficiency, Thailand |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016048 |
| By: | Görlitz, Katja; Tamm, Marcus |
| Abstract: | To increase employee participation in training activities, the German government introduced a large-scale training voucher program in 2008 that reduces training fees by half. Based on a randomized field experiment, this paper analyzes whether providing information about the existence and the conditions of the training voucher had an effect on actual training activities of employees. Because the voucher was newly introduced, only one-fourth of the eligible employees knew the voucher exists at the time of the experiment. The information intervention informed a random sample of eligible employees by telephone about the program details and conditions. The results indicate that the information significantly increased treated individuals' knowledge of the program but had no effect on voucher take-up or participation in training activities. Additional descriptive analyses suggest that the reasons for these zero effects are that the demand for self-financed training is low and that liquidity constraints do not discourage many employees from training participation. |
| Abstract: | Im Jahr 2008 wurde in Deutschland das Programm Bildungsprämie eingeführt. Mit diesem Weiterbildungsgutschein, der eine 50-prozentige Erstattung der Weiterbildungskosten umfasst, sollen Erwerbstätige zu Weiterbildung angeregt werden. Anhand eines randomisierten Feldexperiments untersucht die Studie, ob ein verstärktes Bekanntmachen des Gutscheins mittels einer 'Informationsintervention' zu Änderungen im Weiterbildungsverhalten von Erwerbstätigen führt. Da der Gutschein erst kürzlich eingeführt wurde, war die Bekanntheit zum Zeitpunkt des Feldexperiments vergleichsweise gering. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Informationsintervention die Bekanntheit der Bildungsprämie signifikant erhöht hat, die Teilnahme an Weiterbildung hierdurch jedoch nicht verändert wurde. Ergänzende Analysen legen nahe, dass der fehlende Einfluss auf die Weiterbildungsteilnahme auf eine insgesamt geringe Nachfrage nach eigenfinanzierter Weiterbildung zurückzuführen ist sowie auf den Umstand, dass finanzielle Beschränkungen nur wenige Erwerbstätige von Weiterbildung abhalten und die Behebung dieser finanziellen Beschränkungen daher kaum Wirkung entfaltet. |
| Keywords: | training participation,voucher,financial aid,randomized field experiment,information treatment |
| JEL: | I22 D83 H52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:615 |
| By: | Gibbons, Steve; Lyytikainen, Teemu; Overman, Henry G; Sanchis-Guarner, Rosa |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of new road infrastructure on employment and productivity using plant level longitudinal data for Britain. Exposure to transport improvements is measured through changes in accessibility, which is calculated at a detailed geographical scale from changes in minimum journey times along the road network. These changes are induced by the construction of new road link schemes. We deal with the potential endogeneity of scheme location by identifying the effects of changes in accessibility from variation across wards close to the scheme. We find substantial positive effects on employment and numbers of plants for small-scale geographical areas (electoral wards). In contrast, for firms already in the area we find negative effects on employment coupled with increases in output per worker and wages. A plausible interpretation is that new transport infrastructure attracts transport intensive firms to an area, but with some cost to employment in existing businesses. |
| Keywords: | accessibility; employment; productivity; transport |
| JEL: | D24 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11239 |
| By: | Windischbauer, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the phenomenon of high levels of unofficial euroisation in countries preparing for EU membership (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey). The challenges stemming from unofficial euroisation are particularly relevant for central banks as high degrees of euroisation reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy and create risks to financial stability. Unofficial euroisation in these countries is fuelled by legacies of inflation and macroeconomic imbalances, close economic and financial linkages with the euro area, as well as the perspective of EU membership. While euroisation (or, more generally, dollarisation) is typically a sticky phenomenon that is difficult to reverse, entrenched as it is in the behaviour and mind-set of economic agents, the paper finds - based also on the experience of countries outside the region - that there is a set of policies under the competence of domestic authorities which are conducive to strengthening the use of domestic currencies, even though efforts to bring down dollarisation or euroisation rates typically take a long time to show results. In this context, macroeconomic stabilisation is a necessary but not sufficient condition. It needs to be flanked by targeted prudential and regulatory measures, as well as efforts to develop local currency capital markets. Authorities in EU candidate and potential candidate countries have already engaged in such endeavours and euroisation rates have gone down to some extent in recent years, though at different levels and at an uneven pace. Nevertheless, further efforts are needed, while acknowledging that some specific factors like the strong presence of euro area headquartered banks in these countries as well as their EU accession perspective are conducive to euroisation. JEL Classification: E42, E52, E58, F31, F41, G28 |
| Keywords: | bank regulation, capital markets, currency, dollarisation, euroisation, financial stability, monetary policy, prudential policy, South-East Europe |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016170 |
| By: | Adriana Kocornik-Mina; Thomas K.J. McDermott; Guy Michaels; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | Does economic activity relocate away from areas that are at high risk of recurring shocks? We examine this question in the context of floods, which are among the costliest and most common natural disasters. Over the past thirty years, floods worldwide killed more than 500,000 people and displaced over 650,000,000 people. This paper analyzes the effect of large scale floods, which displaced at least 100,000 people each, in over 1,800 cities in 40 countries, from 2003-2008. We conduct our analysis using spatially detailed inundation maps and night lights data spanning the globe's urban areas. We find that low elevation areas are about 3-4 times more likely to be hit by large floods than other areas, and yet they concentrate more economic activity per square kilometre. When cities are hit by large floods, the low elevation areas also sustain more damage, but like the rest of the flooded cities they recover rapidly, and economic activity does not move to safer areas. Only in more recently populated urban areas, flooded areas show a larger and more persistent decline in economic activity. Our findings have important policy implications for aid, development and urban planning in a world with rising urbanization and sea levels. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization; flooding; climate change; urban recovery |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66061 |
| By: | SAKAMOTO Haruya |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between public funding and advocacy by civil society organizations. Previous studies discussed the consequences of dependence on public funding and its impact on advocacy. Based on the resource dependence theory, some studies argue that public funding has a negative impact on advocacy. However, others reveal its positive impact drawing on the partnership theory. There is no strong empirical finding which supports either theory. Therefore, the debate has not yet been settled. This study provides two new perspectives on the argument. First, the level of governments' autonomy decides the consequence because it determines the reaction of governments on advocacy. If the level is high, governments can take sanctions against advocacy, so the resource dependence theory is valid. If the level is low, governments cannot take sanctions and are willing to compromise with civil society organizations, therefore the partnership theory is valid. Second, public funding has a nonlinear impact on advocacy. Previous research focused on only the linear impact and whether it was a positive or negative impact. But this research insists that the effect of public funding is nonlinear and fits the "inversed U shape" model, since the resource dependence theory is invalid when the level of dependence on public funding is low. Findings from the multivariate analyses of the Japanese Third Sector Survey 2014 conducted by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) support these two perspectives. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:16036 |
| By: | MacDonald, Stephen; Gale, Fred; Hansen, James |
| Abstract: | This report examines China’s 2011-13 attempt to maintain a high level of price support for its cotton producers, analyzing the policy’s motivation, its consequences to date, and the impacts of various adjustment alternatives China might pursue. With China’s wages rising rapidly in recent years, cotton production costs there have been rising faster than in the rest of the world. Rising costs both helped motivate China’s policymakers to strengthen their price support for cotton production in 2011 and ensured that the policy ultimately proved unsustainable. After several years of sharply lower cotton consumption and sharply rising state-owned stockpiles of cotton, China in 2014 began switching producer support to direct subsidies, and focusing support on producers in the largest producing region, Xinjiang. Additional reforms include plans to restore market forces to a leading role in determining China’s cotton prices. But China’s large role in world cotton markets and the unprecedented size of the government’s stocks mean that difficult choices lie ahead for China’s policymakers. Policy decisions in China will continue to have a significant impact on the rest of the world, and lower Chinese import quotas for cotton could reduce world cotton prices significantly. |
| Keywords: | Cotton, China, agricultural policy, price supports, trade, textiles, trade policy, WTO, industrial policy |
| JEL: | D4 F1 F13 Q1 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70863 |
| By: | Acklie, Paige; Popp, Jennie |
| Abstract: | The US Agricultural Census show that between 2002 and 2012, the number of women operators in Arkansas grew 14 percent (from 19,856 to 22,637). These women operators have made up an increasingly larger percent of all farm operators in the state (from almost 29% to nearly 33%). There is little published information regarding how women’s roles, challenges and factors important to their success may have changed over time. While some surveys of farm women have been conducted, these surveys are generally insufficient because data exist only for one point in time. This poster uses survey data collected across ten years (2005-2014) at Arkansas Women in Agriculture (ARWIA) conferences to compare women’s perceptions regarding: 1) their roles in agriculture, 2) the successes and challenges they face, 3) how their roles have changed over time, and 4) how that change has influenced their family lives, agriculture and the rural community. It is hoped that this set of baseline information can be useful not only to researchers and educators interested in addressing needs of local women but also in illustrating the continuing changes in women’s roles and their needs and thus the need for extended research over time to address these changes. |
| Keywords: | women in agriculture, farm labor, leadership, Agribusiness, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Q10 J01, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229975 |
| By: | Rebérioux, Antoine; Roudaut, Gwenael |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether women's situation within French boards has improved following the adoption of a board-level gender quota in 2011. To do so, we focus on the individual role of female directors as proxied by their fees. Our sample includes the listed companies belonging to the SBF120 index over the 2006-2014 period. We first show that the quota has succeeded in opening the doors of boardrooms to new, unseasoned female directors (not present on the director labor market before the regulation). These unseasoned female directors have distinctive characteristics (in terms of independence, experience, age, nationality, etc.) as compared to other board members. More importantly, we show that women, whether unseasoned or seasoned, experience an inner glass ceiling, with "positional" gender segregation within French boards. In particular, companies have failed so far to open the access of the most important board committees (namely monitoring committees: audit, compensation and nomination) to women. It results in within-firm gender fees gap of 5%. Overall, the quota has rather amplified this segregation process, with an increase in the average within-firm gender fees gap. |
| Keywords: | board; gender quota; segregation; director fees |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:1603 |
| By: | Leonid E. Gorizontov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The multi-volume edition “Picturesque Russia. Our Fatherland in its spatial, historic, ethnographic, economic and everyday life sense” (1879–1901, in 12 volumes and 19 books) contains a lot of data about the Slavic peoples – Russians, Ukrainians, Belorussians and Poles. Most of the essays on different regions were prepared by the men of letters often simultaneously known as novelists, journalists, literary critics, historians and ethnographers. The study analyses their choice by the publishers, literary reputations in the mid-1880s, national and political affiliations. A special attention is paid to the holders of various ethnic and regional identities among the authors, as well as to some specific roots and consequences of the unique large-scale project under review. |
| Keywords: | “Picturesque Russia”, writers, novelists, journalists, literary scholars, historians, literary reputations, late Russian Empire, regions, Russians, Ukrainians, Belorussians, Poles, Slavic studies |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:129/hum/2016 |
| By: | Kirchner, Mathias; Schonhart, Martin; Schmid, Erwin |
| Abstract: | We assess anticipated changes in policy and regional climate on agrarian land use development indicators in Austria for the period 2025-2040. A spatially explicit bio-economic integrated assessment quantifies impacts at 1km grid resolution in order to take into account the heterogeneity of Austrian agricultural landscapes. The impacts of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) post-2013 on regional producer surplus are slightly positive and payments shift from intensive to extensive production regions. The economic impact of climate change depends on changes in precipitation patterns. Policy change leads to intensification of land use in favorable cropland and grassland regions and extensification in marginal regions. Regional climate change amplifies land use intensification with increases in crop yields, e.g. in Alpine regions, and land use extensification with declining crop yields, e.g. in eastern cropland regions. Environmental indicators deteriorate at national level in all scenarios. The highly spatially diverging impacts call for more targeted policy measures. |
| Keywords: | Common Agricultural Policy, Climate Change, Agri-environmental, Land Use, Environment, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, O13, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212004 |
| By: | Jeffrey Hoopes; Patrick Langetieg; Stefan Nagel; Daniel Reck; Joel Slemrod; Bryan Stuart |
| Abstract: | We examine individual stock sales from 2008 to 2009 using population tax return data. The share of sales by the top 0.1 percent of income recipients and other top income groups rose sharply following the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and remained elevated throughout the financial crisis. Sales by top income and older age groups were relatively more responsive to increased stock market volatility. Volatility-driven sales were not concentrated in any one sector, but mutual fund sales responded more strongly to increased volatility than stock sales. Additional analysis suggests that gross sales in tax return data are informative about unobserved net sales. |
| JEL: | G01 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22209 |
| By: | Ghaith, Ahmad; Epplin, Francis; Frazier, R. Scott |
| Abstract: | Oklahoma households serviced by investor owned electric utilities that have smart meters may select to be charged based on either a traditional meter rate schedule, a smart meter schedule, or they may install a household grid-tied wind turbine or solar panel system and be subject to a different rate schedule. The objective of the research is to determine the annual cost of electricity for a case study household for six alternative situations: grid purchased with traditional meter rates, grid with smart meter rates, and four household Renewable Distributed Generation (RDG) systems tied to the grid with unique rates under consideration for implementation. Twenty years of hourly information regarding wind and solar quantity were obtained from the Oklahoma Mesonet weather system. Hourly use data for a representative household were obtained from the Department of Energy. These data, the Oklahoma Corporation Commission rate schedules, and purchase prices and power output response functions, for each of the four household systems were used to address the objective. The annual cost of electricity for the modeled household is estimated to be $710 for the smart meter system and $812 for the traditional meter system. The estimated annual cost of $2,343 for the least costly household grid tied production system, a 4 kW solar system, is 3.3 times greater than the annual cost of purchasing from the grid via a smart meter system. If external consequences of electricity generation and distribution are ignored, given current and proposed rate structures and prices, household generation systems are not economically competitive in the region. |
| Keywords: | cost, grid-tied, renewable distributed generation, solar energy, solar panel, wind energy, wind turbine, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q28, Q42, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229820 |
| By: | Mikaël Klintman |
| Abstract: | This report provides a brief review of how national government policies and guidelines apply to or regulate the use of environmental labelling and information schemes (ELIS) in selected OECD countries. The report reviews definitions relevant to environmental claims and identifies four types of potentially false or misleading environmental claims. The report also reviews countries’ different approaches to guidance and regulations relating to such claims, as well as approaches to monitoring and enforcement of compliance with rules and guidance. Examples of court action relating to the use of consumer protection laws for environmental claims in several countries are described. Based on the reports available, it is not possible to assess to what extent the enforcement processes have been effective in improving the overall quality of environmental claims. The report also notes the extensive similarities in how different national guidelines categorise misleading environmental claims, perhaps beacuase many of the guidelines are derived in part from the International Organization for Standardization’s (ISO) 14020 series of internationally-agreed standards. Moreover the report acknowledges that several attempts have been made towards harmonisation across countries concerning environmental criteria, mainly concerning eco-labelling schemes and organic agriculture standards. There appear to be strong incentives for this type of cross-country certification, including reduced administrative costs and a potential for increased trade of environmentally-certified goods. This makes further harmonisation of criteria for self-reported environmental claims a real possibility. The ongoing pursuit of harmonisation regionally, or bilaterally, might be a first step forward in such a process. Le présent rapport décrit brièvement la façon dont les politiques publiques et les directives nationales encadrent et réglementent l’utilisation des dispositifs d'éco-étiquetage et d'information environnementale (DEIE) dans certains pays de l’OCDE. Le rapport s’intéresse pour commencer à la façon dont les directives et réglementations abordent la terminologie des allégations environnementales. Il distingue quatre grands types d’allégations environnementales potentiellement inexactes ou trompeuses, et examine les directives et réglementations mises en place par les différents pays dans ce contexte. Le rapport decrit aussi les mesures appliquées par les autorités dans différents pays pour contrôler la validité des allégations écologiques d’entitées privées. Des exemples d’actions en justice engagées dans plusieurs pays autour d’allégations environnementales sont décrits. Pourtant, les rapports dont on dispose ne permettent pas d’évaluer dans quelle mesure les procédures de vérification ont permis d’améliorer la qualité générale des allégations environnementales. Le rapport note en outre que les directives nationales présentent de nombreuses similitudes. Ces similitudes tiennent sans doute au fait que les directives gouvernementales s’inspirent souvent de la série de normes ISO 14020 de l’Organisation Internationale de Normalisation. Le rapport évoque aussi plusieurs tentatives d’harmonisation des critères environnementaux entre pays. Il existe, semble-t-il, d’importantes incitations en faveur de ce type de certification internationale, notamment la possibilité de bénéficier de coûts administratifs réduits et de développer les échanges de produits certifiés. Il devient donc réellement possible d’harmoniser également les critères applicables aux autodéclarations environnementales. Les efforts déployés pour poursuivre l’harmonisation régionale, ou bilatérale, pourrait marquer un premier pas dans cette direction. |
| Keywords: | Environmental claims, information policy approaches, product environmental footprints, Ecolabels, environmental reporting, rapports environnementaux, politique d’approches informationnelles, empreintes environnementales des produits, Eco-labels, Allégations environnementales |
| JEL: | F18 L15 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:105-en |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Chaudhary, A. R.; Ozturk, Ilhan |
| Abstract: | This paper reinvestigates the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption in case of Pakistan for the period of 1972Q1-2011Q4 by employing the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model. We have employed the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration in the presence of structural breaks stemming in the series to count for these missing elements in other studies. Finally, the VECM Granger causality approach has been applied to examine the causal relationship between the variables. Our results show that urbanization adds in energy consumption. Affluence (economic growth) increases energy demand. Technology has positive impact on energy consumption. An increase in transportation is positively linked with energy consumption. The causality analysis indicates the unidirectional causality running from urbanization to energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, Energy Demand, STIRPAT, Pakistan |
| JEL: | E00 |
| Date: | 2016–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70313 |
| By: | Inocencio, Arlene B.; Ureta, Carl; Baulita, Alex; Baulita, Arman; Clemente, Roberto S.; Luyun, Roger Jr. A.; Elazegui, Dulce D. |
| Abstract: | This discussion paper presents an analysis of the performance of national (NIS) and communal irrigation systems (CIS) by region, complemented by technical and institutional assessments of 30 sample NIS and 66 sample CIS in Luzon. It shows that there is value in looking at subnational trends. Using secondary data from the central and regional offices of the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) and the systems, complemented by key informant interviews and ocular inspections, this study establishes key institutional and technical constraints to improving the performance of NIS and CIS systems. In addition to the selected key performance indicators, some ratios are used to characterize the capacities of the systems in terms of manpower, level of functionality, financial structure, and productivity of the systems. This study examines the NIS cases by province, size (large, medium, small), technology (gravity type vs pump type), location (upstream, midstream, downstream), vintage (pre-NIA, 1965-1980, 1981-2013), and by some measures of "success", and presents a number of instructive results. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, irrigation performance, management and development of irrigation systems, irrigators’ association, Luzon, national irrigation system, communal irrigation system |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:dp_2016-12 |
| By: | Zaffou, Madiha; Campbell, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | In response to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) proposed rules for national menu labeling, several studies have examined the effect of restaurant menu labeling on consumers food choices and total calorie intake. However, outcomes other than nutritional and health concerns were not given enough attention. An important component that can be affected by menu labeling is the total cost/price paid by consumer for a selected meal. In this study, samples of 242 participants with diverse demographic characteristics were presented with two different restaurant menus. For each menu, we construct different experimental treatments associated with calorie information display formats (total calories, percentage daily intake and traffic lights) and we ask participants to make their meal choice(s). Data on price and calorie information for chosen food items is then recorded. Therefore, we examine how prices paid by consumers are affected by a change of calorie labeling formats for each menu. Results of this analysis are critical to restaurants owners and may have a significant impact on their pricing decisions. |
| Keywords: | menu labeling, consumer choice, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Health Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229941 |
| By: | Punnoose Jacob; Anella Munro |
| Abstract: | The Basel III net stable funding requirement, scheduled for adoption in 2018, requires banks to use a minimum share of long-term wholesale funding and deposits to fund their assets. A similar regulation has been in place in New Zealand since 2010. This paper introduces the stable funding requirement (SFR) into a DSGE model featuring a banking sector with richly-specified liabilities, and estimates the model for New Zealand. We then evaluate the implications of an SFR for monetary policy trade-offs. Altering the steadystate SFR does not materially affect the transmission of most structural shocks to the real economy and hence has little effect on the optimised monetary policy rules. However, a higher steady-state SFR level amplifies the effects of bank funding shocks, adding to macroeconomic volatility and worsening monetary policy trade-offs conditional on these shocks. We find that this volatility can be moderated if optimal monetary or prudential policy responds to credit growth. |
| Keywords: | DSGE models, prudential policy, monetary policy, small open economy, sticky interest rates, banks, wholesale funding |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-23 |
| By: | Andersen, Lykke E.; Breisinger, Clemens; Jemio, Luis Carlos; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Ringler, Claudia; Robertson, Richard D.; Verner, Dorte; Wiebelt, Manfred |
| Abstract: | This food policy report is a response to growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Latin American economies, agriculture, and people. It assesses both local and global effects of changing agricultural yields on the economy, subnational regions, and different household types, including male- and female-headed households in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. The three countries reflect economic and geographic diversity in Latin America and more than half of the region’s population. Climate change impacts tend to be relatively small at an economywide level in all three countries. However, sectoral and household-level economic impacts tend to be diverse across countries and subnational levels. They mainly depend on projected changes in agricultural yields, the share of agriculture in regional gross domestic product (GDP), crop-specific international trade balances, net food buyer/seller position, and income diversification of households. As for gender, results from this study suggest that female-headed households may be less vulnerable than male-headed households to the effects of climate change, highlighting the importance of considering women as a source for solutions for building resilience to climate change. Given the relatively small impacts of climate change and the degree of uncertainty associated with them, it is too early to define specific policy recommendations. All three countries should try to maximize the benefits that may come with higher agricultural world market prices and to minimize the losses from reductions in agricultural yields. |
| Keywords: | BRAZIL, MEXICO, PERU, LATIN AMERICA, SOUTH AMERICA, NORTH AMERICA, climate change, households, socioeconomic development, trade, productivity, yields, agricultural sector, agricultural policies, economic policies, trade policies, prices, forecasting, gender, resilience, environmental shocks, economywide modeling |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:fprepo:9780896295810 |
| By: | Magrini, Emiliano; Vigani, Mauro |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the impact of agricultural technologies on the four pillars of food security for maize farmers in Tanzania. Relying on matching techniques, we use a nationally representative dataset collected over the period 2010/2011 to estimate the causal effects of using improved seeds and inorganic fertilizers on food availability, access, utilization, and stability. Overall, the technologies have a positive and significant impact on food security, but substantial differences between the pillars are observed. Improved seeds show a stronger effect on food availability and access, while - in terms of utilization - both technologies increase the diet diversity and only improved seeds reduce the dependence on staple food. Finally, improved seeds reduce the household vulnerability while inorganic fertilizers guarantee higher resilience. The study supports the idea that the relationship between agricultural technologies and food security is a complex phenomenon, which cannot be limited to the use of welfare indexes as proxy for food security. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212216 |
| By: | Black, Michael; Popp, Jennie; Dixon, Bruce; Danforth, Diana; Sharpley, Andrew; Daniels, Mike |
| Abstract: | The upper Illinois River watershed (UIRW) in northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma is a nutrient rich watershed. Agricultural production in northwest Arkansas is dominated by cattle and poultry production, which can contribute to the phosphorus and nitrogen loads of the river. Several lawsuits have been filed by downstream water users against upstream land users that include poultry integrators and several municipal wastewater treatment plants, in an effort to decrease nutrient concentrations and some impairment of receiving waters used for drinking and recreation. One option to reduce water quality impairment is through the use of voluntary conservation practices (CPs ). Due to their voluntary nature, understanding the decision making process and producer perceptions are vital to increasing adoption. This study estimates a generalized linear model with a count data dependent variable, to identify factors that influence adoption rates for CPs, as well as seven multinomial probit models to identify factors that influence the perception of seven common CPs. |
| Keywords: | water quality, conservation practices, perception, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, q53 q25, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229969 |
| By: | Ricci, Elena Claire; Catenacci, Michela; Travisi, Chiara M. |
| Abstract: | Climate Change (CC) poses significant threats to coastal areas, with the main impacts being sea-level-rise (SLR) and the consequent loss of land. Much work has been done to evaluate effective adaptation strategies, but further research is needed. This paper aims at analyzing the costs of CC and SLR in the Grado-Marano lagoon, and at proposing an example of methodology based on an economic evaluation of damages related to: loss of land on the basis of different land-uses (i); loss of non-use values (ii); losses in productivity/use values via Bayesian Networks (iii); and on a multi-criteria-analysis able to integrate different (monetary and non-monetary) criteria focused on three pillars of sustainability (iv) to compare adaptation-strategies. We find that the larger impacts are on residential and tertiary sectors, even if most of the area has an agricultural vocation, and that the best adaptation-strategy is beach-nourishment even if rankings depend on criteria weights. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212484 |
| By: | Gaballo, Gaetano; Marimon, Ramon |
| Abstract: | We show that credit crises can be Self-Confirming Equilibria (SCE), which provides a new rationale for policy interventions like, for example, the FRB’s TALF credit-easing program in 2009.We introduce SCE in competitive credit markets with directed search. These markets are efficient when lenders have correct beliefs about borrowers’ reactions to their offers. Nevertheless, credit crises – where high interest rates self-confirm high credit risk - can arise when lenders have correct beliefs only locally around equilibrium outcomes. Policy is needed because competition deters the socially optimal degree of information acquisition via individual experiments at low interest rates. A policy maker with the same beliefs as lenders will find it optimal to implement a targeted subsidy to induce low interest rates and, as a by-product, generate new information for the market. We provide evidence that the 2009 TALF was an example of such Credit Easing policy. We collect new micro-data on the ABS auto loans in the US before and after the policy intervention, and we test, successfully, our theory in this case. |
| Keywords: | unconventional policies, learning, credit crisis, social experimentation, self-confirming, equilibrium, directed search |
| JEL: | D53 D83 D84 D92 E44 E61 G01 G20 J64 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:ade2016/01 |
| By: | Moser, Stefan; Mubhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Palm oil production creates negative externalities, e.g., through intensive fertiliser application. Policies to limit externalities need an effective, sustainable and efficient measure We use a business simulation game in a framed field experiment in Indonesia to test ex ante different incentives for reducing such negative externalities. This setting allows inclusion of adequate contextual features, required for reasonable ex ante evaluation of policy measures. The different designs of the test incentives (either a reward or punishment) varied in their magnitude and probability of occurrence but with constant effects on expected income. Results show that participants react differently to these incentives, indicating that the design can contribute significantly to effectiveness, sustainability or efficiency. A high reward with a low probability was found to be the most effective and sustainable incentive. Moreover, for the most efficient design, a low and certain reward is indicated. |
| Keywords: | Ex ante policy impact analysis, reward, punishment, framed field experiment, business simulation game, palm oil production, Indonesia, fertiliser use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, C91, Q18, Q52, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212475 |
| By: | Catherine Leining (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is the New Zealand government’s cornerstone policy instrument for meeting New Zealand’s climate change responsibilities. The New Zealand system was designed based on strong linkages to international carbon markets. Understanding how these have affected the New Zealand market is critical both for policymakers in New Zealand and designers of international emissions trading schemes who are considering linkages. We adapt Pizer and Yates' 2013 model of a linked tradable permit systems to conditions in the NZ ETS. We compare the model with price and surrender data and find that the international linkage works as expected. When New Zealand is a buyer of units and linking is certain, NZU prices are roughly equal to the Kyoto unit price. When the New Zealand government announces that New Zealand will de-link – no longer allowing any international units – prices diverge and New Zealand participants meet almost all current obligations with Kyoto units, saving their NZUs for the delinked future. |
| Keywords: | New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS), Emissions trading, linked tradable permit market, Kyoto units, Certified Emission Reductions (CERs), Emission Reduction Units (ERUs), greenhouse gas, carbon markets. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:16_06 |
| By: | Wang, Haiyan; Malaga, Jaime |
| Abstract: | The large volume of sorghum imports for feed use since 2013 has rapidly made China the largest export destination for sorghum, especially sorghum from the U.S., which has sent about 90% of its sorghum exports to China by MY 2014/2015. The main reason for China’s increasing imports of sorghum may be related to its corn domestic and trade policies, which pushed up domestic corn prices. Because sorghum is a cheap close substitute for corn, the large price gap between these two grains attracted livestock industries to shift part of their feed grain use from corn to sorghum as the price of corn continued to rise. In order to estimate and forecast the prices of sorghum and corn in China, this study developed a price determination model by using a stocks-to-use ratio formulation to capture market supply and demand factors. The government policy effect has also been included in the model. A baseline projection and three simulation scenarios were performed to forecast the Chinese corn and sorghum prices from 2015 to 2019. Results of the study indicated that prices for Chinese corn and sorghum may be declining in the next five years and the price of sorghum would be lower than the price of corn. In addition, the three simulation scenarios suggested that price differences between these two grains would be smaller if the Chinese government would eliminate its temporary corn reserve program. |
| Keywords: | Sorghum, Corn, China, Price, Stocks-to-use ratio, Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade, F17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229887 |
| By: | Marta Kozicka; Regine Weber; Matthias Kalkuhl |
| Abstract: | Despite the large-scale antipoverty programs, especially food and nutrition programs, 15 per cent of Indian population is undernourished. The National Food Security Act (NFSA) aims at reducing food insecurity by granting a right to food to a large share of the population. The implementation of the world largest food aid program, however, is controversially debated: While historically, rationed highly subsidizes staple food have been used to improve the access to food for poor people, cash transfers are considered as an alternative with lower market distortions, leakages and fiscal costs. This study analyzes consumption patterns of wheat and rice delivered through the Public Distribution System in India and investigates targeting errors as well as reasons for leakage, self-selection and under-supply of staples using cross-sectional household data on all-India level. Our findings indicate some serious targeting errors of the current distribution system as migrant workers and female-led households are not well covered. We find that leakage rates are in general very low for poor households and regions with high poverty rates, implying that higher market prices have negative consequences for the poor excluded from the system. Further, wealthier households restrain from consuming subsidized grains. This negative self-selection of wealthier households implies a high potential for cost savings that would be lost under a cash-transfer scheme. Thus, or study provides a subtle and differentiated analysis that is highly useful for improving the current distribution system as well as design and targeting issues relevant for an alternative cash-transfer system. |
| JEL: | D12 D45 H53 I38 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsc:fspubl:40 |
| By: | Ojo, Olanike; Ojo, Akindele; Tsado, Jacob |
| Abstract: | This study examined the spatial pricing efficiency of rice marketing in North central, Nigeria. Data collection involved the use of primary data and a multi-stage random sampling technique was used the selection of 200 marketers. Data analytical techniques involved the use of descriptive statistics, the model of spatial price relationship as well as Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression model. The results on spatial pricing efficiency revealed that consumers were void of exploitative behavior of middlemen in most of the markets. The result on the factors affecting rice prices showed the estimated R2 for Kwara and Niger States of 98.3% and 42%, respectively. The main constraint facing rice marketing in the area was cost of transportation. Based on these results, it is recommended that the negative price spread in Owode market should gear up the local government authorities in the provision of more market outlets in Owode market. |
| Keywords: | Spatial, efficiency and price-spread, Agricultural and Food Policy, Financial Economics, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212595 |
| By: | Nghiem Thi Hong Nhung (Department of Public Health, University of Otago) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study is to find out optimal management strategies for productive planted forests when carbon benefits are considered. With a given initial state of forest, the research attempts to: a) determine the planting and harvesting patterns, which can maximize net returns from selling timber and sequestering carbon; b) compare the optimal management strategy when carbon has or does not have market value; c) compare the optimal management strategy for two dominant tree species; d) analyse the sensitivity of the optimal management strategy to forests’ area, prices and discount rate; and e) identify the policy implications in further developing multiple-use forests in Vietnam. The Faustmann formula was applied to find the optimal rotation age and the net present value (NPV) for planted forest at stand-level. We extended the Faustmann model to include multi-stands and spatial arrangement among forest stands in order to analyse the optimal strategy at forest-level. A simple search algorithm was used to look for optimal sets of planting and harvesting. The model was coded in GAMS. To evaluate the model, 293 household forest farmers who grow Eucalyptus urophylla and Acacia mangium in Yen Bai province, Northern Vietnam were interviewed. Survey results show that the actual tree cutting age is five years. However, at the stand-level, we find that the optimal rotation age of E. urophylla (when only timber has market value) is 10 and 9 years for households and forest enterprises, respectively, at a 5% discount rate. For A. mangium, the optimal rotation age is 13 years for both households and forest enterprises. The NPV is VND 16 million per hectare for households of both E. urophylla and A. mangium. For forest enterprises, the NPV is VND 57 million and VND 62 million per hectare for E. urophylla and A. mangium, respectively |
| Keywords: | forest management, carbon sequestration, Vietnam |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:report:rr2016046 |
| By: | Massimo Anna Alberini (University of Maryland,USA); Markus Bareit (ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | In Switzerland, the annual circulation taxes on road vehicles are set by and paid to the cantons (not to the federal government). We exploit the 26 different circulation tax rules and their variation over time, which we interpret as a natural experiment, to see if linking them to a vehicle’s CO2 emissions rate has helped shift new car sales towards cleaner, lower-emitting vehicles. We find that even when the penalty associated with a highly polluting vehicle is high, the effect is relatively small. For example, in canton Zurich, imposing a 50% “malus” on the annual registration fee for cars that emit 200 or more grams of CO2 per kilometer reduces the average CO2 emissions rate from new cars by only 0.46 gram per kilometer, bringing it to 158.11 grams per kilometer in 2011. A similar effect would be attained with a modest increase in fuel taxes. |
| Keywords: | vehicle demand estimation; fuel economy; fuel taxes; vehicle taxes; carbon dioxide emissions rates. |
| JEL: | L62 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:16-245 |
| By: | Bönke, Timm; Kemptner, Daniel; Lüthen, Holger |
| Abstract: | In aging societies, information on how to reform pension systems is essential to policy makers. This study scrutinizes effects of early retirement disincentives on retirement behavior, individual welfare, pensions and public budget. We employ administrative pension data and a detailed model of the German tax and social security system to estimate a structural dynamic retirement model. We find that labor market participation and retirement behavior in general are strongly influenced by the level of disincentives. Further, disincentives come at the cost of increasing inequality and individual welfare losses. Still, net public returns are more than five times as high as monetarized individual welfare losses. Our estimates also suggest that similar levels of net public returns achieved by indiscriminating pension cuts are associated with individual welfare losses that are at least twice as high. |
| Keywords: | dynamic discrete choice,retirement,tax and pension system,pension reform |
| JEL: | C61 H55 J26 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20162 |
| By: | Jian Wang; Reinhilde Veugelers; Paula Stephan |
| Abstract: | Research which explores unchartered waters has a high potential for major impact but also carries a higher uncertainty of having impact. Such explorative research is often described as taking a novel approach. This study examines the complex relationship between pursuing a novel approach and impact. Viewing scientific research as a combinatorial process, we measure novelty in science by examining whether a published paper makes first time ever combinations of referenced journals, taking into account the difficulty of making such combinations. We apply this newly developed measure of novelty to all Web of Science research articles published in 2001 across all scientific disciplines. We find that highly novel papers, defined to be those that make more (distant) new combinations, deliver high gains to science: they are more likely to be a top 1% highly cited paper in the long run, to inspire follow on highly cited research, and to be cited in a broader set of disciplines. At the same time, novel research is also more risky, reflected by a higher variance in its citation performance. In addition, we find that novel research is significantly more highly cited in “foreign” fields but not in its “home” field. We also find strong evidence of delayed recognition of novel papers and that novel papers are less likely to be top cited when using a short time window. Finally, novel papers typically are published in journals with a lower than expected Impact Factor. These findings suggest that science policy, in particular funding decisions which rely on traditional bibliometric indicators based on short-term direct citation counts and Journal Impact Factors, may be biased against “high risk/high gain” novel research. The findings also caution against a mono-disciplinary approach in peer review to assess the true value of novel research. |
| JEL: | I23 O31 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22180 |
| By: | Sandoval, Luis; Carpio, Carlos E. |
| Abstract: | El Salvador is one of the smallest and most populated countries in Latin American with approximately 6.3 million people and a population density of 301 habitants/km2. The country is considered to be food and nutrition insecure because of its vulnerability to natural disasters, high dependence on remittances and food imports, low economic growth and a poverty rate of 34.5%. Despite the food insecurity status of El Salvador, to the best of our knowledge no one has estimate a food demand system that can be used to evaluate how price and income shocks affect food security in the country. We use household food expenditure data from the 2013 Multiple Purposes Household Surveys (EHPM) and additional information on prices to estimate an Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) food demand system and evaluate the impact of price and income shocks as well as potential food policies on food demand and food insecurity. Our preliminary results show inelastic price demand for all food groups except meats (which includes beef, pork, poultry and eggs) and non-alcoholic beverages. The most inelastic demand was observed in the food group of cereals that includes, corn, rice, and beans which are staples in the Salvadorian diet. |
| Keywords: | food security, demand system, EASI, El Salvador, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230074 |
| By: | Mitchell, Melissa; Ott, Kathy; Ridolfo, Heather; McCarthy, Jaki |
| Abstract: | In 2013, the Research and Development Division of the National Agricultural Statistics Service conducted a study to determine if targeted data collection for likely nonrespondents could positively impact response rates for the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) Phase III. The methodology for the study was the same as a study done in 2012, but was implemented with only four participating regions, encompassing 12 states. This smaller sample was used in 2013 due to the unforeseen complications with carrying out the 2012 study across the United States. Likely nonrespondents were flagged using classification trees and their relative importance to the calibration target was taken into consideration with the use of impact scores. Flagged records were then assigned to targeted data collection methods including the use of enumerator incentives and having state or regional office staff make in person contacts to attempt to increase response rates for those records. Given our small sample size, this is an exploratory study. |
| Keywords: | Nonresponse propensity scores, impact scores, data mining, targeted data collection, ARMS, calibration target, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:unasrr:234304 |
| By: | Matthew T. Cole (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University); Ronald Davies (School of Economics, University College Dublin); Todd Kaplan (Department of Economics, University of Exeter) |
| Abstract: | Discrimination against foreign bidders in procurement auctions has typically been achieved by price preferences, that is, a policy of accepting a range of higher prices from a domestic firm over a lower price from a foreign firm. We demonstrate that in the bidding game, each level of protection via a price preference can be achieved by an equivalent tariff. When government welfare depends only on net expenditures, this equivalence carries over to the government's decision. As such, agreements to eliminate price preferences may be unsuccessful unless accompanied by tariff limitations. On the other hand, if tariff collection is costly, then even without tariff limits banning price preferences lowers protection and increases global welfare. |
| Keywords: | Government Procurement, Tariffs, Price Preference |
| JEL: | F13 H57 F12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpl:wpaper:1601 |
| By: | Matteo M. Galizzi; Marisa Miraldo; Charitini Stavropoulou |
| Abstract: | We present results from a hypothetical framed field experiment assessing whether risk preferences significantly differ across the health and financial domains when they are elicited through the same multiple price list paired-lottery method. We consider a sample of 300 patients attending outpatient clinics in a university hospital in Athens, during the Greek financial crisis. Risk preferences in finance are elicited using paired-lottery questions with hypothetical payments. The questions are adapted to the health domain by framing the lotteries as risky treatments in hypothetical healthcare scenarios. Using Maximum Likelihood methods, we estimate the degree of risk aversion, allowing for the estimates to be dependent on domain and individual characteristics. The subjects in our sample, who were exposed to both health and financial distress, tend to be less risk averse in the financial than in the health domain. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral experiments in health; Field experiments; Risk aversion |
| JEL: | G32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:64764 |
| By: | Fernanda Estevan; Thomas Gall, Louis-Philippe Morin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine an innovative affirmative action policy designed to increase the representation of underprivileged students at UNICAMP, a large and highly ranked Brazilian university. The university awarded bonus points to targeted applicants (i.e., public high school applicants) on their admission exam, as opposed to imposing a typical quota system. Using a rich set of administrative data from UNICAMP, we assess the effect of this policy on the composition of admitted students, and investigate for possible behavioral responses at the extensive (participation) and intensive (preparation effort) margins. We find that the admission probability of public high school applicants, the targeted applicants, significantly increased following the adoption of the affirmative action program. The policy was also associated with sizable redistribution in the composition of admitted students, with a shift towards students from families with lower socio-economic status. Surprisingly, we find little evidence of behavioral reactions to the affirmative action policy, in terms of test performance or application decision. |
| Keywords: | post-secondary education; affirmative action; university admission; inequality. |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I28 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2016–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon7 |
| By: | Cuestas, Juan Carlos; Huang, Ying; Tang, Bo |
| Abstract: | This study investigates both the symmetric and asymmetric exchange rate exposures of Chinese financial firms in the context of an accelerated pace of RMB internationalisation. We find that an increasing number of Chinese financial firms are exposed to negative symmetric effects from the change in the trade weighted effective exchange rate. The evidence concerning asymmetries shows that after 2009 negative exchange rate shocks have a stronger effect on exposures than positive shocks. Changes in the bilateral exchange rate also have a significant impact on firm returns, given the importance of the USD in the effective exchange rate. Further, the empirical analysis reveals that exchange rate exposures are associated with firm level characteristics including total assets, earnings per share, net cash flows, investment incomes, total liabilities and firm size. Finally, we suggest that domestic and foreign stakeholders need to pay close attention to the movement of the Yuan’s exchange rate before it becomes completely convertible. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate exposure, RMB internationalisation, Chinese financial firms. |
| JEL: | C58 F3 F31 G1 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70921 |
| By: | Halkos, George; Papageorgiou, George |
| Abstract: | The first purpose of this paper is to study the dynamics of a general socially undesirable public evil and the possibility of cyclical Nash strategies in equilibrium. As a second result of the paper we found the analytical solutions of the hierarchical (Stackelberg) game for the public bad accumulation model. In both cases we use the differential game modeling, as the appropriate tool for the economic analysis that follows. The control setting is not the usual one, which assumes an accumulated stock of a public bad (e.g. pollutants, wastes or even tax evasion), but we claim that the disadvantage which is responsible for the unwished public evil accumulation is the use of the available inputs and equipment. Therefore, this could be a crucial assumption which possibly prevents the irreversibility of the public bad accumulation. As a continuation, we set as stock the available resources (inputs plus equipment) and the stress of the regulator is to reduce these resources. In the first case of Nash equilibrium, we find that the establishment of cyclical strategies, during the game between the agents in charge and the regulator, requires that the agents’ discount rate must be greater than the government’s discount rate, i.e., the agents in charge must be more impatient than the government (acting as the regulator). In the second case of the hierarchical setting, we provide the analytical expressions of the strategies as well as the steady state value of the resources’ stock. We use the notion of a public bad as the opposite meaning to the public good. |
| Keywords: | Public bad; cyclical policies; Nash equilibrium; Stackelberg equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C61 C62 D43 H21 Q50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70635 |
| By: | Xiao-Guang Yue (Wuhan University, China); Rui Gao (Wuhan University, China); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | In order to study the dynamic changes in gas concentration, to reduce gas hazards, and to protect and improve mining safety, a new method is proposed to predict gas concentration. The method is based on the opposite degree algorithm. Priori and posteriori values, opposite degree computation, opposite space, prior matrix, and posterior matrix are 6 basic concepts of opposite degree algorithm. Several opposite degree numerical formulae to calculate the opposite degrees between gas concentration data and gas concentration data trends can be used to predict empirical results. The opposite degree numerical computation (OD-NC) algorithm has greater accuracy than several common prediction methods, such as RBF (Radial Basis Function) and GRNN (General Regression Neural Network). The prediction mean relative errors of RBF, GRNN and OD-NC are 7.812%, 5.674% and 3.284%, respectively. Simulation experiments shows that the OD-NC algorithm is feasible and effective. |
| Keywords: | Gas concentration; opposite degree algorithm; data prediction; mining safety; numerical simulations |
| JEL: | C53 C63 L71 |
| Date: | 2016–04–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160027 |
| By: | Frederiksen, Anders (Aarhus University); Kadenic, Maja Due (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study how mines change local societies in the Nordic countries with a particular focus on the Arctic region. Our study is based on register data at the municipality level from Norway, Sweden, and Finland for the period 1986 to 2013. The applied econometric model allows for identification of the total socioeconomic effects that occur throughout the mine's life cycle. We find positive effects on local employment and reductions in unemployment and the number of people outside the labor force when a mine is opening up. We also detect significant shifts in the industry structure in the period around a mine opening and we find that mines attract young people and reduce crime rates. We do not find any effects on the local population size, the gender or education compositions, or fertility rates. |
| Keywords: | mining, Arctic, socioeconomic effects, resource development, Nordic countries |
| JEL: | J2 J15 O12 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9883 |
| By: | Walter, Rico; Wirth, Martin; Lawrinenko, Alexander |
| Abstract: | For the basic problem of scheduling a set of n independent jobs on a set of m identical parallel machines with the objective of maximizing the minimum machine completion time---also referred to as machine covering---we propose a new exact branch-and-bound algorithm. Its most distinctive components are a different symmetry-breaking solution representation, enhanced lower and upper bounds, and effective novel dominance criteria derived from structural patterns of optimal schedules. Results of a comprehensive computational study conducted on benchmark instances attest to the effectiveness of our approach, particularly for small ratios of n to m. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:80530 |
| By: | Selma İNFAL (Selcuk University); Esra USLU (Selcuk University); Menekşe Nazlı Aker (Selcuk University) |
| Abstract: | This systematic review assesses decision support systems used in nursing area in Turkey and effect of these systems on nursing care. This study was conducted using scientific search engines such as Ulakbim Medical Data Base, Turkish Medline Data Base, National Thesis Center, Turkish Citation Index, Turkish Psychiatry Index, Academic Index. As determined, keywords were searched in several combinations. A total of two theses that met the inclusion criteria were involved in the evaluation. This systematic review shows that the studies on this issue are very limited in terms of quantitative perspective but the results are positive. In this context, it is suggested that the number studies which are evaluating the effectiveness of the nursing care with clinical decision support systems are increased and similar studies are planned with various nursing practices. |
| Keywords: | Decision support systems, nursing, care, Turkey |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:3505973 |
| By: | Elena Andreou |
| Abstract: | Many empirical studies link mixed data frequency variables such as low frequency macroeconomic or financial variables with high frequency financial indicators’ volatilities, especially within a predictive regression model context. The objective of this paper is threefold: First, we relate the standard Least Squares (LS) regression model with high frequency volatility predictors, with the corresponding Mixed Data Sampling Nonlinear LS (MIDAS-NLS) regression model (Ghysels et al., 2005, 2006), and evaluate the properties of the regression estimators of these models. We also consider alternative high frequency volatility measures as well as various continuous time models using their corresponding relevant higher-order moments to further analyze the properties of these estimators. Second, we derive the relative MSE efficiency of the slope estimator in the standard LS and MIDAS regressions, we provide conditions for relative efficiency and present the numerical results for different continuous time models. Third, we extend the analysis of the bias of the slope estimator in standard LS regressions with alternative realized measures of risk such as the Realized Covariance, Realized Beta and the Realized Skewness when the true DGP is a MIDAS model. |
| Keywords: | MIDAS regression model, high-frequency volatility estimators, bias, efficiency. |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G22 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:03-2016 |
| By: | Muange, Elijah N.; Godecke, Theda; Schwarze, Stefan |
| Abstract: | The use of improved crop varieties is key to increasing food production, but in Sub- Saharan Africa traditional varieties still dominate smallholder farming. Lack of information is a major constraint to the adoption of improved varieties and the role of social networks in their diffusion is increasingly being studied. Social networks can, however, also affect the efficiency with which farmers use these technologies. In this paper we investigate the influence of social networks on technical efficiency of smallholder cereal producers. Using the case of Tanzania, we apply stochastic frontier analysis on data from sorghum and maize producers. Results show that the effects of social networks on efficiency differ by crop. Inter-village networks positively influence technical efficiency of improved sorghum varieties, but have no effect in case of maize. We further find that links to public extension officers increase efficiency of improved maize varieties. Some wider research and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Improved varieties, social networks, information, technical efficiency, stochastic frontier, Agribusiness, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, D24, D83, O33, Q16, |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:230221 |
| By: | Paolo Carnazza |
| Abstract: | Il presente lavoro intende soffermarsi sul ruolo della politica industriale, in Italia, cercando di individuarne le prospettive sia di breve che di medio-lungo periodo. Dopo avere illustrato i principali risultati di una recente ricerca sullefficacia della politica industriale, lanalisi mette a confronto due differenti approcci: il primo volto ad attribuire allo Stato un importante ruolo nel definire e impostare interventi strutturali di politica economica ed industriale; il secondo finalizzato a minimizzare lintervento statale a sostegno del sistema produttivo. Successivamente, la ricerca si sofferma sui pi recenti interventi di politica industriale adottati in Italia a favore soprattutto dellinnovazione e delle neo-imprese ad alto contenuto tecnologico; questi interventi delineano una vera e propria filosofia di politica industriale e sembrano porsi in una posizione intermedia tra i due differenti approcci. Concludono il lavoro alcune riflessioni volte a delineare le future ed auspicabili tendenze della politica industriale che dovrebbero essere collocate allinterno di un Progetto-Paese condiviso per il raggiungimento di obiettivi di medio-lungo periodo. This paper aims to analyze the role of industrial policy, in Italy, trying to identify the perspectives either in the short or in medium-long term. After having illustrated the main results of a recent research on the effectiveness of industrial policy, the analysis compares two different approaches: the first attributes to the State an important role in defining a set of structural economic and industrial measures; the second finalized to minimize the State intervention in support of the productive system. Moreover, the research focuses on the more recent measures of industrial policy adopted in Italy especially for increasing innovation and new firms with high technological content: these interventions appear to outline a real philosophy of industrial policy and can be considered in between the two different visions. In the conclusion, some thoughts are developed in order to indicate the future and desirable trends of industrial policy to be placed inside a Project-Country and shared with medium - long term objectives. |
| Keywords: | innovazione, politica industriale |
| JEL: | A L50 O38 |
| Date: | 2016–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sve:wpaper:mise-2 |
| By: | Bernardo Alves Furtado; Isaque Daniel Eberhardt |
| Abstract: | Este texto simula a evolução de economias artificiais no intuito de compreender a relevância tributária de limites administrativos na qualidade de vida de seus habitantes. A modelagem consiste na construção de algoritmo computacional cujo desenho contemple cidadãos, organizados em famílias, assim como firmas e governos que interagem nos mercados de bens, de trabalho e imobiliário. O mercado imobiliário permite que as famílias se mudem para domicílios com maior qualidade ou menor preço quando capitalizam a valorização dos terrenos. O mercado de bens comporta a busca do consumidor em número flexível de firmas, escolhendo por preço e proximidade. O mercado de trabalho é dado por processo de pareamento entre firmas (dada sua localização e o salário ofertado) e candidatos, de acordo com sua qualificação. O governo pode se configurar em uma região única ou em quatro ou sete governos subnacionais distintos, porém conurbados economicamente. O papel do governo é coletar impostos sobre o valor de venda das firmas no seu território e aplicá-los na melhoria da qualidade de vida dos habitantes. Este texto apresenta algumas ilustrações realizadas a partir de uma economia aleatória. Nessa configuração os limites administrativos parecem ser relevantes para os níveis de qualidade de vida advinda da inversão dos tributos. Nesse caso, o recorte com sete regiões é mais dinâmico, porém mais desigual e heterogêneo entre as regiões. O recorte com região única é homogeneamente mais pobre. O trabalho busca contribuir como referência metodológica para descrever, operacionalizar e testar modelos computacionais de análise de finanças públicas, com viés explicitamente espacial e dinâmico. Várias alternativas de expansão do modelo para objetos de pesquisa próximos são relatadas. This study simulates the evolution of artificial economies in order to understand the tax relevance of administrative boundaries in the quality of life of its citizens. The modeling involves the construction of a computational algorithm, which includes citizens, bounded into families; firms and governments; all of them interacting in markets for goods, labor and real estate. The real estate market allows families to move to households with higher quality or lower price when the families capitalize property values. The goods market allows consumers to search on a flexible number of firms choosing by price and proximity. The labor market entails a matching process between firms (given its location and offered wage) and candidates, according to their qualification. The government may mbe configured into a single region, or four or seven distinct sub-national governments, which are all economically conurbated. The role of government is to collect taxes on the value added of firms in its territory and transform the taxes into higher levels of quality of life for residents. As an illustration of the model the text suggests that the configuration of administrative boundaries is relevant to the levels of quality of life arising from the reversal of taxes. The model with seven regions is more dynamic, but more unequal and heterogeneous across regions. The simulation with only one region is more homogeneously poor. The study seeks to contribute to a theoretical and methodological framework and to describe, operationalize and test computer models of public finance analysis, with explicitly spatial and dynamic emphasis. Several alternatives of expansion of the model for future research are described. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2181 |
| By: | Beck, T.H.L. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Homanen, M.; Uras, Burak (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We explore the empirical interaction between firm growth, financing constraints and job creation. Using a novel small business survey from Uganda, we find that the extent to which small businesses expand skilled employment as their sales and profits increase depends significantly on access to external funding. The results are robust to the inclusion of various firm level controls, region and sector fixed effects. We address reverse causality concerns by providing empirical evidence using planned hiring regression specifications. |
| Keywords: | financial access; trained and experienced employment; uganda |
| JEL: | O15 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:37f2de70-7701-4f98-a85a-eb3da172bae5 |
| By: | Richard T. Baillie (Department of Economics, Michigan State University, USA; School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary University of London, UK; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); Kun Ho Kim (Department of Economics, Hanyang University, Republic of Korea) |
| Abstract: | It has become commonplace in applied time series econometric work to estimate regressions with consistent, but asymptotically inefficient OLS and to base inference of conditional mean parameters on robust standard errors. This approach seems mainly to have occurred due to concern at the possible violation of strict exogeneity conditions from applying GLS. We first show that even in the case of the violation of contemporaneous exogeneity, that the asymptotic bias associated with GLS will generally be less than that of OLS. This result extends to Feasible GLS where the error process is approximated by a sieve autoregression. The paper also examines the trade-offs between asymptotic bias and efficiency related to OLS, feasible GLS and inference based on full system VAR. We also provide simulation evidence and several examples including tests of efficient markets, orange juice futures and weather and a control engineering application of furnace data. The evidence and general conclusion is that the widespread use of OLS with robust standard errors is generally not a good research strategy. Conversely, there is much to recommend FGLS and VAR system based estimation. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-04 |
| By: | Zapata, Samuel D.; Ribera, Luis A.; Palma, Marco |
| Abstract: | The optimal allocation of resources and efforts is needed to fulfill the latest Renewable Fuel Standard mandate. In order to warranty the success of the nascent cellulose-based biofuel industry, it is crucial to better understand the effects that production parameters have on the economic feasibility of a biofuel enterprise. The main goal of this study is to estimate the impact that the different feedstock production and biofuel conversion parameters have on the probability of economic success. To this aim, an original stochastic financial model is developed to analyze and identify the most economically relevant components of the biofuel production path. Estimation of the model was carried out using Monte Carlo simulation techniques along with parametric maximum likelihood estimation procedures. Results indicate that operational efficiency strategies should concentrate on improving feedstock yields and extending the feedstock growing season. |
| Keywords: | Binary response model, Energy cane, Marginal effects, Monte Carlo simulation, Net present value, Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q16, C15, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229804 |
| By: | Armen Hovakimian (Baruch College); Edward Kane, (Boston College); Luc Laeven (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a theoretically based and easy-to-implement way to measure the systemic risk of financial institutions using publicly available accounting and stock market data. The measure models the credit enhancement taxpayers provide to individual banks in the Merton tradition (1974) as a combination put option for the deep tail of bank losses and a knock-in stop-loss call on bank assets. This model expresses the value of taxpayer loss exposure from a string of defaults as the value of this combination option written on the portfolio of industry assets. The exercise price of the call is the face value of the debt of the entire sector. We conceive of an individual bank’s systemic risk as its contribution to the value of this sectorwide option on the financial safety net. To the extent that authorities are slow to see bank losses or reluctant to exercise the call, the government itself becomes a secondary source of systemic risk. We apply our model to quarterly data over the period 1974-2013. The model indicates that systemic risk reached unprecedented highs during the financial crisis years 2008- 2009, and that bank size, leverage, and asset risk are key drivers of systemic risk. |
| JEL: | G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:16 |
| By: | Berg, Annika; Abidi, Hella |
| Abstract: | Due to the complexity of the business as well as humanitarian supply chain structure the interest of collaboration significantly increased. Collaboration in supply chains is fundamental to gain success, to share information as well as risks, to reduce costs and to increase customer satisfaction. Therefore selecting and evaluating strategic partner in a supply chain in particular humanitarian supply chain based on appropriate criteria and procedure are highly necessary for obtaining an efficient performance. This research study provides relevant criteria for a selection and evaluation of strategic business partner that are involved in a logistics network. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fomild:47 |
| By: | Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Akaichi, Faical; Arakelyan, Irina; Barnes, Andrew; Chagunda, Mizeck; Chalmers, Neil; Chitika, Rollins; Jumbe, Charles; Leat, Philip; Moran, Dominic; Thompson, Steven; Toma, Luiza |
| Abstract: | Fractured supply chains have been identified as a barrier to growth for the agricultural sector. Dairy is a key investment sector for the Government of Malawi, donors such USA, Japan and Belgium have focused part of their development aid on the sector. Despite this, domestic production response is unimpressive. This is not surprising several factors hamper the sector development. This case study presents some of the results of an analysis of the dairy supply chain in Malawi. The methodology used consisted of a combination of surveys, semi-structure interviews and secondary information from farmers to consumers. Highlights of the results are: efficiency heterogeneity in dairy production and lack of cows constraining the pass-on programme; infrastructure constraints at the milk bulking group level; prices paid to farmers are sporadically adjusted in an inflationary context; low milk quality standards due to lack of enforcement; high margins for mass consumption milk in supermarkets.. |
| Keywords: | Malawi dairy supply chain, development economics, industrial organisation., Agribusiness, Marketing, O, L., |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212296 |
| By: | Drew D. Creal; Jing Cynthia Wu |
| Abstract: | Workhorse Gaussian affine term structure models (ATSMs) attribute time-varying bond risk premia entirely to changing prices of risk, while structural models with recursive preferences credit it completely to stochastic volatility. We reconcile these competing channels by introducing a novel form of external habit into an otherwise standard model with recursive preferences. The new model has an ATSM representation with analytical bond prices making it empirically tractable. We find that time variation in bond term premia is predominantly driven by the price of risk, especially, the price of expected inflation risk that co-moves with expected inflation itself. |
| JEL: | C11 E31 E43 E52 G12 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22183 |
| By: | Jonathan F. Fox (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Sebastian Klüsener (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development turns positive at high levels of development. Here we investigate whether such a turnaround could also occur at the sub-national regional level in highly developed countries. In the theoretical section we discuss important trends that might foster the emergence of a positive relationship within such countries. Our empirical analysis focuses on Europe, which is comprised of a number of highly developed countries with comparatively high fertility levels. We investigate data for 20 countries between 1990 and 2012. Using panel regression techniques, we find evidence for the emergence of a positive—or, at the very least, less negative—relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. Moreover, the results indicate that there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies toward a reversal are observed. |
| Keywords: | Europe, economic development, fertility |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2015-006 |
| By: | Martin Gustafsson (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Stephen Taylor (Department of Economics and Department of Basic Education) |
| Abstract: | School examination results are far from ideal measures of progress in schooling systems, yet if analysed with sufficient care these data, which are common in education systems, can serve this purpose. The paper partly deals with how various student selection and year-on-year comparability issues in examinations data can be dealt with. This is demonstrated using South African student-level results, aggregated to the school level, for Grade 12 mathematics in the years 2005 to 2013. This was a period during which provincial boundaries changed, creating a quasi-experiment which is amenable to impact evaluation techniques. Value-added school production functions and fixed effects models are used to establish that movement into a better performing province was associated with large student performance improvements, equal in magnitude to around a year’s worth of progress in a fast improving country. Improvements were not always immediate, however, and the data seem to confirm that substantial gains are only achieved after several years, after students have been exposed to many grades of better teaching. The institutional factors which might explain the improvements are discussed. Spending per student was clearly not a significant explanatory variable. What did seem to matter was more efficient use of non-personnel funds by the authorities, with a special focus on educational materials, the brokering of pacts between stakeholders, including teacher unions, schools and communities, and better monitoring and support by the district office. Moreover, the education department in one province in question, Gauteng, has for many years pursued an approach which is unusual in the South African context, of hiring a substantial number of senior managers within the bureaucracy on fixed term contracts, as opposed to on a permanent basis, the aim being to improve accountability and flexibility at the senior management level. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, school improvement, mathematics education, impact evaluation |
| JEL: | C21 H11 I21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers260 |
| By: | Nancy L. Stokey |
| Abstract: | Technical change, even if it is limited in scope, can have employment, output, price and wage effects that ripple through the whole economy. This paper uses a flexible and tractable framework, with heterogeneous workers and technologies, and many tasks/goods, to analyze the general equilibrium effects of technical change for a limited set of tasks. Output increases and price falls for tasks that are directly affected. The effects on employment depend on the elasticity of substitution across tasks/goods. For high elasticities, employment expands to a group of more skilled workers. Hence for tasks farther up the technology ladder, employment falls, output declines, and prices and wages rise. For low elasticities, employment at affected tasks contracts among less skilled workers, as they shift to complementary tasks with unchanged technologies. In all cases, the output, price and wage changes are damped for more distant tasks, both above and below the affected group. |
| JEL: | D50 E24 O33 O40 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22176 |
| By: | Yan, Zhen; Zhou, Jie-hong |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of recent media reports on pork safety problems at source have attracted great attention and thought to be a growing threat to risk perception amplification on pork safety, even leading to public panic. This paper was among the first to explore the impact of media report about potential benefits and risk of traceability on consumer utility valuation and preference heterogeneities for select pork traits. By capturing key issues from online media reports in last three years both on benefit and risk as information shock showed to interviewees, we investigate willingness to pay from 788 consumers across sixteen traceability pilot cities, China. The findings indicate that consumers value certification more than other pork traits, while only preference on farmerinfo labeling significantly imcreases in negative information group. Highly valued farmerinfo and free range labeling in same class from positive information shock, while consumer preference for free range in one class from negative group. |
| Keywords: | International Development, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:211884 |
| By: | Yan, Zhen; Zhou, Jie-hong |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of recent media reports on pork safety problems at source have attracted great attention and thought to be a growing threat to risk perception amplification on pork safety, even leading to public panic. This paper was among the first to explore the impact of media report about potential benefits and risk of traceability on consumer utility valuation and preference heterogeneities for select pork traits. By capturing key issues from online media reports in last three years both on benefit and risk as information shock showed to interviewees, we investigate willingness to pay from 788 consumers across sixteen traceability pilot cities, China. The findings indicate that consumers value certification more than other pork traits, while only preference on farmerinfo labeling significantly imcreases in negative information group. Highly valued farmerinfo and free range labeling in same class from positive information shock, while consumer preference for free range in one class from negative group. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212609 |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné; Gianluca Orefice; Roberta Piermartini |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the asymmetric effect of Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) policies on heterogeneous exporters, based on matching a detailed panel of French firm exports to a new database of Trade Facilitation Indicators (TFIs) released recently by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We analyze the effect of these TFIs on three trade-related outcomes: (i) exported value (firm intensive margin), (ii) number of products exported (product extensive margin) and (iii) average export value per product exported (product intensive margin). We find strong evidence of a heterogeneous effect of trade facilitation across firm size. While better information availability, advance ruling and appeal procedures mainly benefit small firms, the simplification of documents and automation tend to favor large firms' trade. This is coherent with the idea that while some elements of the TFA simply reduce the fixed cost of exporting (favoring small firms in particular), other chapters in the TFA reduce the scope for corruption at borders, making large firms less reluctant to serve corrupt countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade Facilitation;Heterogeneous Firms;Extensive Margin;Intensive Margin |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2016-08 |
| By: | Yeboah Asuamah, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Public investment and agricultural sector productivity nexus has been examined in the current paper using the ordinary least squares (OLS), vector error correction model (ECM), and Johansen test in a trivariate model, for the period 1961-2013, using annual time series data, for Ghana. The results indicate that public investment have significant negative effect on agricultural sector productivity (using the OLS test), whereas, investment by enterprises, government and households (measured by gross fixed capital formation) have significant positive effect on agricultural sector productivity. The findings of the Johansen test results indicate stable long run relationship among public investment, gross fixed capital formation, and agricultural sector productivity. The agricultural sector has not benefited from public investment over the period under discussion. The findings of the study seems to suggest that, policy makers in the agricultural sector should not rely on public investment to improve agricultural sector productivity. The findings suggest that investment by enterprises, government and households could be relied on as a policy tool to influence agricultural sector productivity. Other investment variables such as foreign direct investment should be included in future research to examine whether the current findings could be collaborated. Nonlinear models should be examined in future studies to determine if the results will be replicated. |
| Keywords: | Public Investment, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Agricultural Value Added |
| JEL: | O16 Q14 |
| Date: | 2016–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70606 |
| By: | Sene, Ligane Massamba |
| Abstract: | Peanut is a major source of income for many farmers in Senegal. However, this sector faces several problems in all the segments of the value chain such as yield decline and serious market disturbances. Agricultural production has to be increased to address these issues. This can be done by reinforcing the connectivity of farmers. This study aims to evaluate connectivity as a catalyst for agricultural productivity. An appropriate measure of connectivity integrating various dimensions is computed and an estimate of multilevel mixed-effects linear regression shows its positive and meaningful effect on the output. Results show that Information and Communication Technologies should be promoted and social networks should be reinforced in agricultural activities. One option is to help Rural Producer Organizations better develop and to be a gateway as community access points. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural productivity, ICT, social network, connectivity, Senegal, Crop Production/Industries, O13, Q16, Q13, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212263 |
| By: | YAMAMOTO Isamu |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to recognize the high-speed growth of the Korean economy, which developed over a more than 30 year period beginning in the 1960s, from the East Asian context, and to analyze the internal and external factors which enabled such a rapid growth. The Korean government attempted to accelerate economic growth through strategic resource allocation in order to counter the North Korean threats during the Cold War. Especially, after the advent of the military regime, the Korean economy took advantage of the abundant labor force of the country, procured capital from overseas, and entered a rapid growth path. For long-term development plans that were regularly presented by the Economic Planning Board, firms led mainly by chaebol drew up business projects according to the prospects of the development plans and carried out capital investment. Even though firms sometimes ignored short-term profitability in order to commit to capital investment, generous support measures from the government were taken in the background, and an "escort fleet method" financial system to raise foreign as well as domestic funds was established to aid firms financially. With the participation of Korean President Park Chung-hee, monthly economic trends report meetings and export promotion conferences with enlarged memberships were held on various issues arising in the economic growth, and coordination between the public and private sectors was carried out. In addition, labor wages also began to rise and durable consumer goods were purchased in quantity. Nonetheless, there was a time lag between the reality of high-speed growth and the advent of a "mass consumer society," and the purchase of durable consumer goods by households was realized in a form that was late for high-speed growth. Together with the external demand-dependent economic growth strategy suitable for globalization, this was one of the factors that enabled high-speed economic growth for the long term. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:16020 |
| By: | Carsten Helm (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Mathias Mier (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | When the supply of intermittent renewable energies like wind and solar is high, the electricity price is low. Conversely, prices are high when their supply is low. This reduces the profit potential in renewable energies and, therefore, incentives to invest in renewable capacities. Nevertheless, we show that perfect competition and dynamic pricing lead to efficient choices of renewable and fossil capacities, provided that external costs of fossils are internalized by an appropriate tax. We also investigate some properties of electricity markets with intermittent renewables and examine the market diffusion of renewables as their capacity costs fall. We show that the intermittency of renewables causes an S-shaped diffusion pattern, implying that a rapid build-up of capacities is followed by a stage of substantially slower development. While this pattern is well known from the innovation literature, the mechanism is new. Moreover, the S-shaped pattern is followed by another acceleration phase towards the end of the diffusion process. We also find that technology improvements such as better storage capabilities have substantial effects not only on the speed of market penetration, but also on its pattern. Finally, fluctuations of energy prices rise with the share of renewables. If regulators respond with a price cap, this leads to a faster market diffusion of renewables. |
| Keywords: | renewable energies, peak-load pricing, intermittent energy sources, technology diffusion, price caps, energy transition |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:389 |
| By: | Fan, Ziying (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wan, Guanghua (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Since the Tax Sharing Reform in 1994, the local government revenue of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has faced downward risk problems. This paper reviews the fiscal and taxation reforms in the central and local governments of the PRC and focuses on evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal transfers. We find that, to a certain extent, fiscal transfers significantly promote the construction of local infrastructure. Earmarked transfers had an effect, but lump-sum transfers did not. Results showed every 1% increase in earmarked transfers to be associated with a 5% increase in local spending on infrastructure. These fiscal transfers also increased the size of local government spending such that a 1% increase of fiscal transfer would increase the ratio of local fiscal spending to gross domestic product by 1%. The risk of the local fiscal revenue sources was also assessed, and results showed that land finance, local government bonds, and fiscal transfers from the central government are not sustainable in the long term. The local fiscal system in the PRC needs to focus on improving local taxes in the future, such as the property tax. |
| Keywords: | PRC fiscal risk; fiscal transfers; fiscal and tax reforms |
| JEL: | H54 H68 H71 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0567 |
| By: | Luke, Garrod; Matthew, Olczak |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of asymmetries in capacity constraints on collusion where market demand is uncertain and where firms must monitor the agreement through their privately observed sales and prices. In this private monitoring setting, we show that all firms can infer when at least one firm’s sales are below some firm-specific “trigger level”. This public information ensures that firms can detect deviations perfectly if fluctuations in market demand are sufficiently small. Otherwise, there can be collusion under imperfect public monitoring where punishment phases occur on the equilibrium path. We find that symmetry faciliates collusion. Yet, we also show that if the fluctuations in market demand are sufficiently large, then the collusive prices of symmetric capacity distributions are actually lower than the competitive prices of asymmetric capacity distributions. We draw conclusions for merger policy. |
| Keywords: | capacity constraints, mergers, collusion, imperfect monitoring |
| JEL: | D43 D82 K21 L12 L41 |
| Date: | 2016–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70647 |
| By: | Helmut Lütkepohl; Anna Staszewska-Bystrova; Peter Winker |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new non-parametric method of constructing joint confidence bands for impulse response functions of vector autoregressive models. The estimation uncertainty is captured by means of bootstrapping and the highest density region (HDR) approach is used to construct the bands. A Monte Carlo comparison of the HDR bands with existing alternatives shows that the former are competitive with the bootstrap-based Bonferroni and Wald confidence regions. The relative tightness of the HDR bands matched with their good coverage properties makes them attractive for applications. An application to corporate bond spreads for Germany highlights the potential for empirical work. |
| Keywords: | Impulse responses, joint confidence bands, highest density region, vector autoregressive process |
| JEL: | C32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1564 |
| By: | Sibande, Lonester; Bailey, Alastair; Davidova, Sophia |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of a fertilizer subsidy program in Malawi on household food security and the total annual per capita consumption expenditure. The study uses the nationally representative two-wave Integrated Household Panel Survey (IHPS) data of 2010 and 2013. Fixed effect and correlated random effect quantile regression models are employed to estimate the conditional mean and heterogeneous effects of subsidized fertilizer. The study finds a positive effect of subsidized fertilizer on the availability of kilocalories per capita per day, the number of months of household food security, and the probability of a household being food secure over the whole year. The study also finds heterogeneous effects of the program with relatively higher impact on food secure households. However, the study finds no evidence of effects on annual per capita consumption expenditure. These results suggests that farm input subsidy programs could be beneficial for the improvement of food security, particularly of larger food crop producers, but such programs are less useful when the main policy objective is to decrease poverty. |
| Keywords: | Farm Input Subsidies, Food Security, Quantile Regression, Malawi, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, Q1, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212830 |
| By: | Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) |
| Abstract: | This fifth issue of the PIDS Economic Policy Monitor (EPM) highlights the importance of regulatory coherence and quality to realize rapid, sustainable, and inclusive growth. For the Philippines to take advantage of increased trade and investment under the ASEAN integration, there is a need to address the factors that continue to bring down its competitiveness and that undermine efforts to achieve greater social inclusiveness. Regulatory burdens are one of those factors. They restrain competition, productivity, and innovation. The EPM 2014 starts with the analysis in Chapter 1 of the Philippines` performance in 2014 and the outlook for 2015 and beyond in the face of continued global and regional developments. The Philippines continued on a high-growth path in 2014, averaging 6.1 percent, which was achieved despite a number of challenges, including a lower level of government spending due to the low absorptive capacity of government agencies. The outlook for the country in 2015 remains positive, with a growth forecast of 6.8 percent. The global prospect is also optimistic and the forecast is a growth rate of 3.5 percent. Long-term growth is a function of productivity, thus it is imperative to sustain investments in infrastructure, connectivity, and human capital. Chapter 2 discusses some of these investments that are apparent in a number of policy developments in 2014. They include, to name a few, the extension of the age coverage of the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program to include 15- to 18-year-old children, the use of the so-called "education deflator" to regulate tuition fee increases, and the enactment of Republic Act 10641 that allows the full entry of foreign banks in the country.Chapter 3, the theme chapter, examines the case for developing a sound and efficient regulatory management system (RMS) for the country. An RMS is the best step toward reducing regulatory burdens and improving the quality of regulations. The Philippines has a system that contains some of the basic elements of an RMS, but these do not represent a coherent and coordinated system nor are these elements regularly undertaken. The government has taken steps to fill the gaps in the system, but this is not enough. A commitment to reforms despite changes in political leadership and a mindset for continual improvement and innovation are a must. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, regulatory quality, regulatory burden, regulatory management system, cost of doing business, economic outlook, Philippine economy |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:pids_epm_2014 |
| By: | Sneyers, Astrid; Vandeplas, Anneleen |
| Abstract: | In agriculture, women have been found to be less productive than men for a variety of reasons. Most of the studies in this domain focus on crop production, and so far there has been little evidence on the impact of gender on productivity in dairy. This paper provides empirical evidence of the impact of female decision-making power on dairy productivity in India, based on a unique household-level dataset collected in 2010 in 50 villages in Andhra Pradesh, a state in the South of India. Our analysis suggests that higher productivity is achieved in households where women take dairy production-related decisions. While caution is due in drawing overly strong conclusions, our results provide a more nuanced view on the impact of gender on agricultural productivity than the one usually put forward in the literature. |
| Keywords: | agricultural productivity, dairy sector, gender, female decision-making power, Agribusiness, Livestock Production/Industries, Q18, O13, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212062 |
| By: | Dmitry Ryvkin (Department of Economics, Florida State University); Danila Serra (Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University) |
| Abstract: | We test the effectiveness of an anti-corruption policy that is often discussed among practitioners: an increase in competition among officials providing the same good or service. In particular, we investigate whether an increase in overlapping jurisdictions reduces extortionary corruption, i.e., bribe demands for the provision of services that clients are entitled to receive. We overcome measurement and identification problems by addressing our research question in the laboratory. We conduct an extortionary bribery experiment where clients apply for a license from one of many available offices and officials can demand a bribe on top of the license fee. By manipulating the number of available offices and the size of search costs we are able to assess whether increasing competition reduces extortionary corruption. We find that, if search costs are unaffected, increasing the number of providers may actually increase corruption. In particular, our results show that increasing competition has either no eeffect (if search costs are high) or a positive effect (if search costs are low) on bribe demands. We compare our findings to those obtained in a standard market environment and find evidence of different search behaviors in the two settings. |
| Keywords: | competition, extortionary corruption, experiment |
| JEL: | D73 D49 C91 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2015_10_01 |
| By: | Danial Asmat (Economic Analysis Group, U.S. Department of Justice); Sharon Tennyson (Cornell University, Department of Policy Analysis & Management) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically tests the predictions of the Priest-Klein model of pre-trial bargaining. It exploits variation in tort liability for bad faith insurance law across states and time during two decades of evolving law from the 1970s to the 1990s. Using repeated cross-sectional datasets of auto insurance claims from the Insurance Research Council, it nds evidence consistent with the hypothesis that variance in parties' subjective estimates of trial outcomes drove the likelihood of settlement. The likelihood of trial for an average claim is estimated to have risen by over 20% in the initial years following reform among the rst group of states to enact the tort remedy. Trial rates among tort states thereafter declined through the sample, dropping over 10% below control states by 1997. A similar relationship is estimated for the likelihood of a lawsuit being led, and characteristics of litigated claims are consistent with a di erent subset of claims being disputed following regime change. Results are robust to sample selection bias, endogeneity in settlement time, and other state-level legislation on punitive damages limits and prejudg- ment interest. While there is limited evidence for the predictions of asymmetric information models of settlement, we conclude that policyholders and insurers negotiated in a manner consistent with divergent expectations. |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:doj:eagpap:201601 |
| By: | Lodovico Muratori |
| Abstract: | Relation between price transmission and structure of agricultural markets is strongly debated in the literature and no consensus has been reached about symmetry, degree of such transmission and its mechanisms, so that further research is needed. This paper tests whether in markets where infrastructure quality is poor and transport costs are relevant, geographic dispersion of smallholder farmers allows traders to exploit their market power against farmers with a large impact on market structure and reduction of farmers’ welfare. Following the intuition of (Fafchamps et al., 2005), (Sexton, 2013) and (Swinnen and Vandeplas, 2014), the study provides a structural approach based on a set of well-founded behavioural equations to evaluate whether spatial oligopsony power is prevailing in agricultural markets and in case how strong it is. The paper designs also a far-reaching empirical test of the hypotheses through the seemingly unrelated regression technique. Moreover, it provides a strong empirical base to value chain studies, by exploiting the database of the Living Standard Measurement Study. The paper addresses the issue of transportation infrastructure as hindering factor of development in Uganda as outlined in several reports by World Bank, FAO and MAFAP and assesses the costs of such bottleneck, which are larger than transport expenditures. Results confirm that geographic dispersion of smallholder farmers plays a significant role on price margin and that there is room for local oligopsony, because traders overcharge transport and transaction costs to farmers. |
| Keywords: | coffee value chain, wholesale-farm gate price spread, spatial dispersion, revenue distribution, traders’ market power. |
| JEL: | O13 Q12 Q13 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:saq:wpaper:1/16 |
| By: | Hartmut Lehmann; Tiziano Razzolini; Anzelika Zaiceva |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how the labor market adjusts to the Great Recession. To this aim, we use the data for Latvia, a country that have experienced one of the most severe recessions in Europe and a subsequent remarkable recovery. Employing longitudinal EU SILC data and a panel data set constructed by us from various waves of the Latvian Labour Force Survey (LLFS), we estimate worker transitions between labor market states. Labor market adjustment takes place predominantly at the extensive margin since it is driven by flows from permanent wage employment to unemployment. We also show that older, non-Latvian and above all less skilled workers are especially hard hit by the economic crisis. Estimated transitions between four mutually exclusive occupational groups demonstrate that downward mobility is very limited even during the Great Recession. Finally, wage regressions suggest that job mobility is not associated with increased labour productivity during and immediately after the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Labour market transitions, job and occupational mobility, Great Recession, Latvia |
| JEL: | J6 J21 P20 P23 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:118 |
| By: | Jaydip Sen; Tamal Datta Chaudhuri |
| Abstract: | Analysis and prediction of stock market time series data has attracted considerable interest from the research community over the last decade. Rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for statistical analysis of time series data, and availability of high-performance hardware has made it possible to process and analyze high volume stock market time series data effectively, in real-time. Among many other important characteristics and behavior of such data, forecasting is an area which has witnessed considerable focus. In this work, we have used time series of the index values of the Auto sector in India during January 2010 to December 2015 for a deeper understanding of the behavior of its three constituent components, e.g., the trend, the seasonal component, and the random component. Based on this structural analysis, we have also designed five approaches for forecasting and also computed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed decomposition approaches of time series and the efficiency of our forecasting techniques, even in presence of a random component and a sharply changing trend component in the time-series. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1604.04044 |
| By: | Mockshell, Jonathan; Birner, Regina |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, many developing countries have moved from taxing their agricultural sector to subsidizing it, a phenomenon referred to as “overshooting”. Using Ghana and Uganda as case study countries, this study aims to contribute to explaining this phenomenon by examining the role of policy beliefs. The study is based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework and relies on discourse analysis as analytical method. In-depth interviews with policy actors in both countries served as empirical basis. A quantitative analysis of the transcripts was used to identify different discourse coalitions, and a qualitative analysis was conducted to examine the discourses and identify their underlying policy beliefs. The paper identified far-reaching differences in the agricultural policy beliefs between domestic policy makers and donors regarding the question: What does it actually take to develop small-holder agriculture? The evidence from this analysis highlights the role that divergent policy beliefs can play in influencing agricultural policy choices. |
| Keywords: | agricultural input subsidies, small-holder agriculture, policy beliefs, discourse analysis, agricultural policies, Africa, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Q18, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212471 |
| By: | Rogers, James K.; Biermacher, Jon T.; Biedenbach, Abby |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT: In the southern Great Plains pastures of nativegrass mixtures have been shown to provide early season forage and contain grasses that vary in seasonal forage distribution providing higher quality forage further into the growing season than monocultures such as switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). Compared to improved pastures of bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon), nativegrass mixtures increase wildlife habitat, lower maintenance cost, and can improve land value. These benefits have increased interest in conversion of improved pasture land areas to nativegrass pastures. Because of its herbicide tolerance, ability to propagate from stolons, rhizomes, and seed, bermudagrass is difficult to control making conversion challenging. To be successful, conversion methods need to be acquired. A two-year, two location conversion study was developed to determine efficacy and economics of twelve conversion systems for bermudagrass control and establishment of a nativegrass mixture of little bluestem (Schizachyrium acoparium ‘Cimarron’), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii ‘Kaw’), indiangrass (Sorghastrum nutans ‘common’), switchgrass (‘Alamo’), and green sprangletop (Leptochloa dubia ‘common’). Conversion systems consisted of combinations of preparation time (7, 11, 19 months from treatment initiation to planting), cover crops (0, 1, 2, 3), glyphosate application (6, 8, 10 qts/ac) (13.8, 18.4, 23 L ha-1) and tillage (conventional till, no-till). Nativegrass planting date for all conversion systems was April. Tillage systems were more effective than no-tillage. Mean yields across locations and years for no-till were 858 lb/ac and 2868 lb/ac compared to tillage yields of 2243 lb/ac and 6637 lb/ac for nativegrass and switchgrass respectively. Tillage systems with cover crops (2 or 3) and preparation time (11 or 19 months) were more successful in establishing nativegrass but had little effect on switchgrass establishment. For the base-case threshold measure of success (>=70% of total stand), the clean till system with three cover crops was most economical at the Burneyville, Oklahoma, location, realizing a $208 net return per acre. At the Ardmore, Oklahoma, location, systems established with clean-till and no-till methods with both 2 and 3 cover crops were equally more profitable than systems that utilized chemical fallow methods. Systems that utilized chemical fallow methods did not realize positive net returns, but did meet the minimum threshold of success requirement of at least 70% of total NG stand. Relative net returns between systems were most sensitive to prices of rye and sorghum-sudan hay. |
| Keywords: | bermudagrass, economics, native pasture restoration, Farm Management, Production Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:230046 |
| By: | Xiaohong Chen (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Timothy Christensen (New York University); Elie Tamer (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | In complicated/nonlinear parametric models, it is hard to determine whether a parameter of interest is formally point identified. We provide computationally attractive procedures to construct confidence sets (CSs) for identified sets of parameters in econometric models defined through a likelihood or a vector of moments. The CSs for the identified set or for a function of the identified set (such as a subvector) are based on inverting an optimal sample criterion (such as likelihood or continuously updated GMM), where the cutoff values are computed directly from Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations of a quasi posterior distribution of the criterion. We establish new Bernstein-von Mises type theorems for the posterior distributions of the quasi-likelihood ratio (QLR) and profile QLR statistics in partially identified models, allowing for singularities. These results imply that the MCMC criterion-based CSs have correct frequentist coverage for the identified set as the sample size increases, and that they coincide with Bayesian credible sets based on inverting a LR statistic for point-identified likelihood models. We also show that our MCMC optimal criterion-based CSs are uniformly valid over a class of data generating processes that include both partially- and point- identified models. We demonstrate good finite sample coverage properties of our proposed methods in four non-trivial simulation experiments: missing data, entry game with correlated payoff shocks, Euler equation and finite mixture models. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2037 |
| By: | Mink, Stephen D. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the consensus reached by the late 2000s among African Union member countries and their external partners on the need to reverse the decades-long decline in spending for essential public goods and services in agriculture has begun to result inimproved levels and quality of national expenditure programs for the sector. It synthesizes evidence from 20 Agriculture Public Expenditure Reviews (Ag PERs) that have been carried out in countries in Africa South of the Saharan (Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, and Zambia) with World Bank assistance during 2009–2015. This synthesis focuses on several measures: (1) the level of expenditures on agriculture, with particular reference to the explicit target by African heads of state in the 2003 Maputo Declaration on Agriculture and Food Security (reconfirmed in the Malabo Declaration) to allocate 10 percent of national budgets to the sector; (2) the composition and priorities of expenditures with respect to stated national strategies, evidence of impact, and sustainability; and (3) budget planning and implementation that aims to strengthen public financial management in general, and budget coherence, outputs, outcomes, and supporting mechanisms, such as procurement and audit, in particular. This paper uses Ag PERs to analyze budgetary trends across countries, identifies major expenditure issues, and synthesizes lessons regarding spending efficiency. The analysis results in evidence-based recommendations that address, inter alia, budget planning, budget execution, and monitoring for accountability; the creation of a reliable database; more effective intra-and intersectoral coordination; and the cost-effectiveness of different spending policies for meeting various objectives |
| Keywords: | public expenditure, agriculture, agricultural research, budgets, expenditure composition, Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1522 |
| By: | Izatov, Asset |
| Abstract: | In this study we employ an empirical analysis to observe the impact of changes in inflation rate, real exchange rate instability and oil price fluctuations on the level of real economic activity of Russia. Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was represented and estimated along with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). There was revealed the existence of long-run cointegration between the economic activity, the real effective exchange rate and oil prices over the 01/1995-03/2015 period. In addition, the effect of these factors on the economic output is positive. However, the cointegration with the inflation was not present in the long-run over the sample period. While, in the short-run only real effective exchange rate had an effect on the economy of Russia. The important feature of this research is that there was revealed an automatic adjustment mechanism in the model, which helps the economy of Russia to reach its equilibrium after the shock. The paper insists on implementation of the relevant reforms to the fiscal policy to diversify and strengthen the economy. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomics empirical oil exchange inflation economy Russia monetary fiscal policy |
| JEL: | B22 C01 F62 |
| Date: | 2015–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70735 |
| By: | Kriti, Malhotra |
| Abstract: | Agricultural input subsidies have often been promoted as the solution to target food insecurity. This paper aims to investigate the impact of the National Agricultural Input Subsidy (NAIVS) on small-scale farmers in Tanzania particularly, for household food security, while investigating if the programme had any differential impact on female-headed households. On examining the general impact of the NAIVS on small-scale farmers, it is clear that the programme did affect food-security at the household level. Literacy also had a significant impact on household food-security and in terms of production. In terms of the specific impact of the programme on female-headed households, beneficiary female-headed households preferred spending more on education, birth control and family planning.They were also more food-secure and consumed more meals on an average, while the non-beneficiary households preferred spending more on food -- suggesting a lack of food self-sufficiency. However this cannot be attributed the input subsidy alone and needs further research. This paper aims to inform policy-making around agricultural input subsidies and its impacts on female headed households. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212221 |
| By: | Bin Ni (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | Technology spillover induced by foreign direct investment has been proved to be an important channel to boost the productivity growth of local firms in the host country, especially in the context of developing economies. However, the empirical evidence remains inconsistent as to what extent the scale of spillover is affected by the productivity gap between foreign investors and local firms. This paper attempts to make clear such mechanism by applying Vietnamese firm-level data. Focusing on Asian investors, we show that the relationship between the productivity gap and vertical spillover takes an inverted-U shape. To be specific, we use stepwise chow test to decide on the cutoff value of total factor productivity (TFP) as the grouping criteria, and divide investors into low, middle and high-TFP groups. The results reveal that local suppliers in Vietnam can benefit the most from the Asian investors with middle-level TFP, whereas the benefits from the other two groups fade away. The finding is strongly robust even after we control the other spillover-influential factors such as firms' own effort to innovate, foreign firms' ownership, country and industry heterogeneity, and no matter whether we use stochastic frontier or Levinsohn & Petrin measurement of TFP. It thus provides novel evidence that investors with advanced technology do not necessarily diffuse their know-how to local partners. This implies it is important that both Vietnamese local firms and investors with superior technology work in the same direction to stimulate more corporations with each other. |
| Keywords: | technology spillover, productivity gap, firm-level data, Vietnam |
| JEL: | D22 F21 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1604 |
| By: | Javier G. Gómez-Pineda (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | La flotación del peso de 1957 fue la política que más contribuyó a la estabilidad externa dentro del primer programa de crédito contingente de Colombia con el FMI en 1957. En el artículo se especifica y estima un modelo de demanda para los componentes de la ecuación macroeconómica básica durante 1950-1965. En el modelo el control de importaciones se estima como una variable no observada. El modelo se utiliza para estudiar la evolución del balance comercial, la absorción y el producto por medio de ejercicios de descomposición de errores. Dentro de los resultados se encuentra que mientras que la apreciación de la tasa de cambio anterior a 1957 llevó al país a una crisis de pagos, la flotación de 1957 fue el elemento central del programa de estabilización con el FMI pues su efecto fue de lejos el más importante sobre la estabilidad externa dentro de la serie de políticas del programa de estabilización. El movimiento especulativo de capital y el crédito fueron los principales factores impulsores de la absorción, mientras que la flotación de la tasa de cambio tuvo un papel estabilizador sobre el ciclo económico. Los términos de intercambio no desempañaron un papel importante en la explicación del ciclo, a pesar de que comúnmente se les atribuye un papel importante. El control de importaciones ayudó estabilizar el balance comercial, pero una flotación de la tasa de cambio más prolongada habría logrado estabilizar el balance comercial sin racionamiento de las importaciones y sin moratoria de la deuda comercial.******The 1957 flotation of the peso was the policy that contributed most to external stability, among the policies in Colombia’s first stand-by agreement with the IMF. A model for the demand for each of the aggregates in the basic macroeconomic equation during 1950–1965 is specified and estimated. In the model, the imports control policy is estimated as an unobserved variable. The model is used to study the evolution of the trade balance, absorption and output in historical error decomposition exercises. Among the results we find that the appreciation of the exchange rate before 1957 led the country to a payments crisis, while the 1957 flotation was by far the more important policy among the policies in the stabilization program. Speculative capital movements and credit were the main propellers of absorption, while the flotation of the peso had a stabilizing effect on the economic cycle. The terms of trade did not have an important effect on the cycle, although the literature commonly attributes them a critical role. Import controls helped stabilize the trade balance, but a prolonged flotation of the peso would have helped stabilize the trade balance without import rationing or commercial debt arrears. Classification JEL:N1, N16, E12, E32, E58 |
| Keywords: | Acuerdo de crédito contingente, Programa de estabilización, Ajuste de la balanza de pagos, Enfoque absorción ******Stand-by agreement; Stabilization program; Balance of payments adjustment; Absorption approach |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:938 |
| By: | Seok, Jun Ho; Saghaian, Sayed H. |
| Abstract: | Service sectors are really important since most of service sectors are used by other sectors (forward linkage). In this reason, the service trade may have huge effects on domestic industries. There has been the scare research between the service trade and domestic industries especially in agricultural and food industry sector since there is scare in data. The purpose of this paper is that figures out the relationship between the service trade and the TFP (Total Factor Productivity) of domestic agri-food industry. Moreover, this paper checks the difference between effect of service trade on the agricultural sector and the food sector since the food sectors has the processed industry characteristics compared to agricultural sector. Using multilevel model and STAN data set in OECD, this paper finds that the service trade has a positive effect on the domestic food industry considering the forward linkage of service sectors on food sectors. According to the result of random effect, the country with higher competitive in food industry has a small coefficient of service linkage on food sector compared to the country with lower competitive in food industry. |
| Keywords: | Service Trade, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), Multilevel Model, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:saea16:229705 |
| By: | Rueda-Cantuche , José M. (JRC); Sousa, Nuno (DG Trade) |
| Abstract: | KEY FINDINGS • As trade agreements create the conditions for an increase in EU exports they also foster more and better job opportunities for European citizens. From 1995 to 2011 the number of jobs in the EU that were supported by exports of goods and services to the rest of the world increased by 67% to reach around 31 million. These represented 1 in 7 jobs across the 27 EU Member States (up from 1 in 11 jobs in 1995). They tended to be high-skilled and were on average better paid. • In order to remain competitive EU exporters increasingly rely also on foreign inputs. This means that the employment they support progressively spans beyond the EU's borders. In 2011 about 19 million jobs outside the EU depended on EU exports. This means that in 2011 a total of 50 million people around the world had jobs thanks to the EU exporting industries. • Exports are important for employment in all Member States. In 2011 only in Greece (7%), Portugal (8%) and Spain (9%) did the EU exports to the rest of the world support less than 10% of total employment. In Luxembourg they supported a third of all jobs; in Ireland 25%. • Increasingly the jobs supported by EU exports are related to services. Services exports are growing fast but that is not the whole story. The importance of services sectors as suppliers of inputs to the production of the goods for export (“mode 5 services” exports) also stands out from the data. In 2011, 40% of the employment supported by the exports of the primary and manufacturing sectors was in fact in services. • The sales of goods and services to the US market were responsible for 15% of the EU employment supported by EU exports; other key markets to sustaining export-related jobs in the EU were China (10%), Russia (6%) and Turkey (4%). |
| Keywords: | EU exports; income; employment |
| JEL: | F16 |
| Date: | 2016–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:dgtcen:2016_001 |
| By: | Banerjee, Abhijit; Barnhardt, Sharon; Duflo, Esther |
| Abstract: | Iron deficiency anemia is frequent among the poor worldwide. While it can be prevented with the appropriate supplement or food fortification, these programs often do not consistently reach the poorest. This paper reports on the impact of a potential strategy to address iron deficiency anemia in rural areas: double fortified salt (DFS) - salt fortified with iron and iodine. We conducted a large-scale experiment in rural Bihar. In 200 villages, randomly selected out of 400, DFS was introduced at a price that was half the regular retail price for DFS. After two years, we find no evidence that either selling DFS in villages or providing it for free directly to households has an economically meaningful or statistically significant impact on hemoglobin, anemia, physical health, cognition or mental health. For the sales experiment, we can reject at the 95% level a reduction of 2.5 percentage points in the fraction anemic in the entire sample, and 3.7 percentage points among those who were previously anemic. Using an IV strategy, we find a statistically significant, though relatively small, increase in hemoglobin and reduction in the fraction anemic for adolescents, a subgroup that has responded well to supplements and fortification in earlier studies. These disappointing results are explained both by relatively low take up and by low impact of DFS even when consumed more regularly for the majority of the population. |
| Keywords: | anemia; iron supplementation |
| JEL: | I00 I10 O11 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11193 |
| By: | Bakucs, Zoltan; Ferto, Imre; Benedeka, Zsofia; Molnar, Adrienn |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the efficiency of EU internal dairy markets between 2000 and 2014 from spatial price integration perspective, employing a cross-methodological approach in three steps. First, we analyse the spatial integration of raw milk markets, which is often used to test the efficiency of agricultural markets. National monthly raw milk price data are tested for integration and whether the Law of One Price (LOP) holds. Second, we assess integration results in a binary choice setting, employing gravity model variables. Finally, in order to partly overcome the often cited drawback of price transmission analysis (i.e. that by employing price variables (only), there is no connection with real trade flows), bidirectional network analysis models are designed using export variables. Country specific network centrality measures were contrasted with the frequency of LOP fulfilment. Results suggest that besides the milk volume traded, the position occupied in the trade network structure should be also considered when market integration is analysed. |
| Keywords: | spatial price integration, internal milk market, trade, network analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, F14, F15, Q11, Q17, |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae15:212042 |
| By: | Richard T. Froyen; Alfred V Guender (University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | Inflation targeting countries generally define the inflation objective in terms of the consumer price index. Studies in the academic literature, however, reach conflicting conclusions concerning which measure of inflation a central bank should target in a small open economy. This paper examines the properties of domestic, CPI, and real-exchange- rate-adjusted (REX) inflation targeting. In one class of open economy New Keynesian models there is an isomorphism between optimal policy in an open versus closed economy. In the type of model we consider, where the real exchange rate appears in the Phillips curve, this isomorphism breaks down; openness matters. REX inflation targeting restores the isomorphism but this may not be desirable. Instead, under domestic and CPI inflation targeting the exchange rate channel can be exploited to enhance the effects of monetary policy. Our results indicate that CPI inflation targeting delivers price stability across the three inflation objectives and will be desirable to a central bank with a high aversion to inflation instability. CPI inflation targeting also does a better job of stabilizing the real exchange rate and interest rate which is an advantage from the standpoint of financial stability. REX inflation targeting does well in achieving output stability and has an advantage if demand shocks are predominant. In general, the choice of the inflation objective affects the trade-offs between policy goals and thus policy choices and outcomes. |
| Keywords: | CPI, Domestic, REX Inflation Targeting, Openness, Inflation-Output Trade-off |
| JEL: | E3 E5 F3 |
| Date: | 2016–03–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:16/09 |
| By: | Rajmund Mirdala |
| Abstract: | Time-varying exchange rate pass-through effects to domestic prices under fixed euro exchange rate perspective represent one of the most challenging implications of the common currency. The problem is even more crucial when examining crisis related redistributive effects associated with relative price changes. The degree of the exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices reveals its role as the external price shocks absorber especially in the situation when the leading path of exchange rates is less vulnerable to the changes in the foreign prices. Adjustments in domestic prices followed by exchange rate shifts induced by sudden external price shocks are associated with changes in the relative competitiveness among member countries of the currency area. In the paper we examine exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in the Euro Area member countries to examine crucial implications of the nominal exchange rate rigidity. Our results indicate that absorption capabilities of nominal effective exchange rates clearly differ in individual countries. As a result, an increased exposure of domestic prices to the external price shocks in some countries represents a substantial trade-off of the nominal exchange rate stability. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through, inflation, Euro Area, VAR, impulse-response function |
| JEL: | C32 E31 F41 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2016:i:171 |
| By: | Kollmann, Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses a tractable approach for computing the likelihood function of non-linear Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models that are solved using second- and third order accurate approximations. By contrast to particle filters, no stochastic simulations are needed for the method here. The method here is, hence, much faster and it is thus suitable for the estimation of medium-scale models. The method assumes that the number of exogenous innovations equals the number of observables. Given an assumed vector of initial states, the exogenous innovations can thus recursively be inferred from the observables. This easily allows to compute the likelihood function. Initial states and model parameters are estimated by maximizing the likelihood function. Numerical examples suggest that the method provides reliable estimates of model parameters and of latent state variables, even for highly non-linear economies with big shocks. |
| Keywords: | Likelihood-based estimation of non-linear DSGE models, higher-order approximations, pruning, latent state variables |
| JEL: | C6 E3 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70350 |
| By: | Carpenter, Ann (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Mitchell, Emily (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Price, Shelley (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) |
| Abstract: | Blight—or the proliferation of vacant, abandoned, or poorly maintained properties—is a critical community issue in many cities in the Southeast as in other regions of the United States, as economic shifts experienced in the past few decades have changed neighborhoods significantly. Municipalities dealing with this issue recognize what is well documented in the literature—that blight is associated with social, economic, environmental, and public health effects on neighborhoods. The recent recession has led to a surge of abandoned and bank-owned properties, disproportionately located in poor and unstable neighborhoods. The causes of blight vary by city and even by neighborhood, but many cities are dealing with blighted parcels as a result of some combination of suburbanization, population decline, job losses (particularly in the manufacturing sector), foreclosures, and natural events that render structures or lots unusable. Southeastern cities are also unique in that lower population densities often deter revitalization. {{p}} To understand how various blight remediation strategies have been implemented, we selected two case study communities for analysis, which included extensive interviews with local stakeholders. We chose New Orleans, Louisiana, and Macon, Georgia, based on their location, size, the extent of their blight issues, and their commitment to blight remediation. New Orleans and Macon have each experienced significant blight and are leaders in the Southeast in creating and refining robust strategies for combating blight. {{p}} This paper describes several findings in terms of regional blight remediation efforts. Lessons learned include the importance of data collection and visualization, the need for an overarching, jurisdiction-wide blight strategy, the value of transparent and realistic metrics, the need for strong leadership and strategic partnerships that leverage political will and resources, the need for public participation, and the effectiveness of strategies such as strong code enforcement and land banking over expropriation or eminent domain. |
| Keywords: | blight; vacant property; code enforcement; local policy |
| JEL: | H70 K11 R11 R38 |
| Date: | 2015–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedacd:2015-05 |
| By: | Jin Jianjun (College of Resources Science and Technology, Beijing Normal University) |
| Abstract: | Sea levels are rising as a result of global warming. Adaptation is the only option to address the threats caused by sea level rise. Sea levels off the coasts of China have risen at rates higher than the world annual rate and Zhejiang Province has the highest rate in the country. Studies have shown that information provision plays an important role in both individual and institutional decision-making processes. This research aimed to assess how local decision-makers perceived sea-level rise and investigated the effects of information provision on decision-makers? perceptions and actions related to adaptation to sea-level rise in the coastal villages of Zhejiang Province. The sample group for this study was made up of local village leaders selected from 21 towns on islands in Zhejiang Province. Three kinds of towns (tourism towns, fishery towns and commercial towns) were chosen. In order to study the possible effects of information provision, a controlled experiment was designed. Subjects were randomly assigned to two experimental groups receiving an information brochure on sea-level rise and adaptation to it, or to a control group not receiving any such information. The experiment had three phases. The hypotheses to be tested were that the village without information and the other two villages with information would produce different outcomes while the two villages with information would produce similar outcomes. The results showed that local village leaders along the Zhejiang coast had little knowledge of global warming and sea-level rise. The study found that while some local village leaders in Zhejiang Province had a positive attitude towards adaptation to sea-level rise, most of them had a negative attitude towards taking specific policy action on this. More than half of them thought that it was the central government?s responsibility to take the necessary adaptation measures. The major finding of this study was that providing local decision-makers with information on sea-level rise and related adaptation could significantly improve their knowledge level, and positively change their attitude towards and awareness of sea-level rise adaptation, but would not lead to policy action. |
| Keywords: | sea level rise, China |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eep:pbrief:pb20160413 |
| By: | Oliver Falck; Alexandra Heimisch; Simon Wiederhold |
| Abstract: | How important is mastering information and communication technologies (ICT) in modern labour markets? We present the first evidence on this question, drawing on unique data that provide internationally comparable information on ICT skills in 19 countries from the OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). Our identification strategy relies on the idea that Internet access is important in the formation of ICT skills, and we implement instrumental-variable models that leverage exogenous variation in Internet availability across countries and across German municipalities. ICT skills are substantially rewarded in the labour market: returns are at 8% for a onestandard- deviation increase in ICT skills in the international analysis and are almost twice as large in Germany. Placebo estimations show that exogenous Internet availability cannot explain numeracy or literacy skills, suggesting that our identifying variation is independent of a person’s general ability. Our results further suggest that the proliferation of computers complements workers in executing abstract tasks that require ICT skills. Quelle est l'importance de la maîtrise des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC) sur les marchés du travail modernes ? Nous présentons ici les premières réponses à cette question, à partir de données uniques offrant des informations comparables à l’échelle internationale sur les compétences en TIC dans 19 pays. Notre stratégie d'identification repose sur l'idée que l'accès à Internet joue un rôle important dans la formation des compétences en TIC, et nous appliquons des modèles à variables instrumentales utilisant la variation exogène de l’accès à Internet entre les pays et entre différentes municipalités allemandes. Les compétences en TIC font l’objet d’une reconnaissance substantielle sur le marché du travail : les rendements s’établissent ainsi à 8 % pour une augmentation d'un écart-type des compétences en TIC dans l'analyse internationale et sont presque deux fois plus élevés en Allemagne. Des estimations placebo montrent qu’un accès exogène à Internet ne constitue pas un facteur explicatif des compétences en numératie ou en littératie, semblant indiquer que notre identification d’une variation est indépendante des aptitudes générales des individus. Nos résultats suggèrent en outre que la multiplication du nombre d’ordinateurs assiste les travailleurs dans l'exécution de tâches abstraites nécessitant des compétences en TIC. |
| Keywords: | earnings, international comparisons, ICT skills, broadband |
| JEL: | J31 K23 L96 |
| Date: | 2016–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:134-en |
| By: | Hansen, Marc; Conteh, Mohamed; Shakya, Martina; Löwenstein, Wilhelm |
| Abstract: | The land grabbing issue has produced a plethora of debates ranging from ethical conduct of land grabbing agents, specifically concerning displacement, to evidence for and against positive externalities such as technological spill-overs and construction of infrastructure. An underexplored topic is the valuation of agricultural land and the compensatory payments made to land users, distinct from land owners, for the loss of their source of food security. This paper establishes a theoretical framework for the valuation of agricultural land from the perspective of land users, based on a household production function. For the analysis data were collected in a survey of 203 households in the land grab affected area in the Northern Province of Sierra Leone during 2013. It shows that, for the case of a specific land grab in Sierra Leone, the compensatory payments received by land users are far below the value of the land lost and as such the lease income is unable to allow these households to maintain their previously, already tenuous, levels of food security. A clear distinction is made between land owners and even more vulnerable non-landowning land users who depend on the agricultural land for their food security and livelihoods. The household level analysis showed that in addition to the level of compensation received by the average household being insufficient to maintain a priori welfare levels the distribution of compensation significantly favoured the wealthier households. Since the value of the land and the rent distribution were set in local positive law the project could correctly call itself fully compliant but the land grab still resulted in significant welfare losses. The methodology implemented by this ex-post study can identically be applied to an ex-ante scenario allowing land grabbing agents to define a minimum compensatory payment to land users not based on asymmetrical bargaining power but on actual land value to this vulnerable section of the local population. |
| Keywords: | Land Grabbing; Large Scale Land Leases; Productivity Method; Theory-Based Impact Evaluation; Smallholder Farmers; Customary Land Rights; Welfare Changes; Sierra Leone |
| JEL: | D13 D61 H43 Q12 Q15 R52 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bom:ieewps:211 |
| By: | Leopoldo Catania; Nima Nonejad |
| Abstract: | We compare the predictive ability of several volatility models for a long series of weekly log-returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from 1902 to 2016. Our focus is particularly on predicting one and multi-step ahead conditional and aggregated conditional densities. Our set of competing models includes: Well-known GARCH specifications, Markov switching GARCH, sempiparametric GARCH, Generalised Autoregressive Score (GAS), the plain stochastic volatility (SV) as well as its more flexible extensions such as SV with leverage, in-mean effects and Student-t distributed errors. We find that: (i) SV models generally outperform the GARCH specifications, (ii): The SV model with leverage effect provides very strong out-of-sample performance in terms of one and multi-steps ahead density prediction, (iii) Differences in terms of Value-at-Risk (VaR) predictions accuracy are less evident. Thus, our results have an important implication: the best performing model depends on the evaluation criterion |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1605.00230 |
| By: | Boyer, Christopher; Jensen, Kimberly; McLeod, Elizabeth; Larson, James |
| Abstract: | Changes in the 2014 Farm Bill have reconnected federally-subsidized crop insurance to conservation compliance and eliminated direct payments that were tied to conservation compliance. The net effects of these changes on producers’ incentives to comply with conservation standards and on the environment are uncertain, especially in regions such as the Mississippi Delta. We propose pilot crop insurance programs to improve the link between federally-subsidized crop insurance and conservation compliance in the southern United States and for crops such as cotton. The objective of this study was to determine Tennessee and North Central Mississippi cotton producers’ willingness to participate in hypothetical pilot programs that would incentivize use of cover cropping and no-till practices coupled with crop insurance via an additional cost share payment above current Environmental Quality Incentive Program cost share payments. Data were collected using a mail survey of Tennessee and North Central Mississippi cotton producers conducted in early 2015. A bivariate probit model was estimated to ascertain the factors that impact cotton producers’ willingness to participate in two pilot programs that link cover cropping or no-till with Stacked Income Protection Plan crop insurance. Results found that 35% of the cotton producers would be willing to participate in the cover cropping and Stacked Income Protection Plan pilot program, while 28% indicated they would participate in the no-till and Stacked Income Protection Plan pilot program. Results from the bivariate probit model showed that producers already planning to use Stacked Income Protection Plan in 2015 were more willing to participate in the pilot programs. A producers’ age, income, and debt-to-asset ratio influenced their willingness to participate in the pilot programs. More producers stated they used no-till production than cover crops; therefore, we made pairwise comparisons between producers’ ratings of potential outcomes from using cover cropping and no-till as well as between users and non-users of each of those practices. The results provide unique insight into producers’ perceptions of these practices. Overall, the proposed hypothetical pilot programs could improve the linkage between federally-subsidized crop insurance and conservation compliance; however, future research should consider the potential for these pilot programs for other crops and regions of the United States. |
| Keywords: | Cotton, Cover crops, Crop insurance, No-tillage, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Q12, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:234975 |
| By: | Robert Kollmann |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of output volatility shocks on the dynamics of consumption, trade flows and the real exchange rate, in a two-country, two-good world with consumption home bias, recursive preferences, and complete financial markets. When the risk aversion coefficient exceeds the inverse of the intertemporal substitution elasticity, then an exogenous rise in a country’s output volatility triggers a wealth transfer to that country, to compensate for the greater riskiness of the country’s output stream. This risk sharing transfer raises the country’s consumption, lowers its trade balance and appreciates its real exchange rate. In the recursive preferences framework here, volatility shocks account for a non-negligible share of the fluctuations of net exports, net foreign assets and the real exchange rate. These shocks help to explain the high empirical volatility of the real exchange rate and the disconnect between relative consumption and the real exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | international business cycles; international risk sharing; external balance; exchange rate; volatility; consumption-real exchange rate anomaly |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F36 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/228794 |