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on Post Keynesian Economics |
| By: | Alberto Botta; Antoine Godin; Marco Missaglia |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Colombia has grown relatively rapidly, but it has been a biased growth. The energy sector (the "locomotora minero-energetica," to use the rhetorical expression of President Juan Manuel Santos) grew much faster than the rest of the economy, while the manufacturing sector registered a negative rate of growth. These are classic symptoms of the well-known "Dutch disease," but our purpose here is not to establish whether or not the Dutch disease exists, but rather to shed some light on the financial viability of several, simultaneous dynamics: (1) the existence of a traditional Dutch disease being due to a large increase in mining exports and a significant exchange rate appreciation; (2) a massive increase in foreign direct investment, particularly in the mining sector; (3) a rather passive monetary policy, aimed at increasing purchasing power via exchange rate appreciation; (4) and more recently, a large distribution of dividends from Colombia to the rest of the world and the accumulation of mounting financial liabilities. The paper shows that these dynamics constitute a potential danger for the stability of the Colombian economy. Some policy recommendations are also discussed. |
| Keywords: | Colombia; Dutch disease; Balance of payments |
| JEL: | F21 F32 F40 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_853&r=pke |
| By: | Naude, Wim; Nagler, Paula (UNU-MERIT) |
| Abstract: | Can industrialisation be socially inclusive? Is higher income inequality within and between countries the inevitable outcome of technology-driven industrial development? In this paper, prepared as background for the UNIDO's Industrial Development Report 2015, we examine the role of industrialisation and innovation in socially inclusive development. First, we define social inclusiveness and describe the relationship between technological innovation, structural change and social inclusiveness. Second, we discuss globalisation and technological innovation and their joint impact on income inequality. Third, we explore conditions under which technology-driven industrial development may be consistent with socially inclusive development. In our conclusions we emphasise the importance of education to enable workers to utilise technology, and of fiscal policies to strengthen the resilience of communities when rapid technological change causes disruptions in the labour market. Finally we argue that a 'social contract' between governments, their citizens and corporations is crucial for inclusive industrialisation. |
| Keywords: | Industrialisation, Inequality, Innovation, Labour, Manufacturing, Structural Change, Technology |
| JEL: | L16 L26 O14 O15 O33 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2015043&r=pke |
| By: | Ulrich Hoffmann |
| Abstract: | Many economists and policymakers advocate a fundamental shift towards “green growth” as the new, qualitatively-different growth paradigm, largely based on enhanced material/resource/energy efficiency, structural changes towards a service-dominated economy and a switch in the energy mix favouring renewable forms of energy. “Green growth” may work well in creating new growth impulses with reduced environmental load and facilitating related technological and structural change. But can it also mitigate climate change at the required scale (i.e. significant, absolute and permanent decline of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at global level) and pace (i.e. in no more than two to three decades)? This paper argues that growth, technological, population-expansion and governance constraints as well as some key systemic issues cast a very long shadow on the “green growth” hopes. One should not deceive oneself into believing that such an evolutionary (and often reductionist) approach will be sufficient to cope with the complexities of climate change. It may rather give much false hope and excuses to do nothing really fundamental that should bring about a U-turn of global GHG emissions. The proponents of a resource efficiency revolution, re-structuring of economies and a drastic change in the energy mix need to scrutinize the historical evidence, in particular the arithmetic of economic and population growth. Furthermore, they need to realize that the required transformation goes far beyond innovation and structural changes to include better distribution of income and wealth, limitation of market power of economic agents that promote biased approaches to GHG reduction, and a culture of sufficiency. Climate change calls into question the global equality of opportunity for prosperity (i.e. ecological justice and development space) and is thus a huge developmental challenge for all countries, but particularly for the global South and a question of life and death for some developing countries. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unc:dispap:222&r=pke |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation have analyzed the main budgetary and economic effects of repealing the Affordable Care Act and concluded that doing so would probably increase federal deficits over the next decade, whether or not macroeconomic feedback to the budget is included. Such feedback would reduce deficits, but would not offset the increases in deficits stemming from the other effects of repealing the ACA. |
| JEL: | H20 H40 I11 I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2015–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:502520&r=pke |