| Abstract: |
The basic narrative on climate change between the rich and poor worlds has
been problematic. The focus on emissions has made industrial countries
inadequately sensitive to the unmet energy needs in developing countries. And
it has led developing countries to adopt the rhetoric of recrimination and
focus on the legacy of historical emissions by industrial countries. The
ensuing blame game has led to the current gridlock. As a way out, we suggest
some simple principles for determining equitable distribution of emission cuts
between developed and developing countries to meet global targets. These
principles emphasize basic energy needs and the equality of access to energy
opportunities rather than emissions, taking account of development levels, as
well as energy efficiency in creating such opportunities. To apply these
principles, we develop a new data set to distinguish between energy needs and
emissions-intensity for major developing- and developed-country emitters and
quantify the relationship between these variables and changes in income (or
development). This quantification allows us to project emissions levels in
2050. Our main finding is that meeting global emissions targets equitably
requires very large, probably revolutionary, improvements in the carbon
intensity of production and consumption, much larger than seen historically.
We conclude that a new shared narrative that places equality of energy
opportunities at the forefront would naturally shift the focus of
international cooperation from allocating emissions “rights” or reductions and
blame to maximizing efforts to achieving technology gains and rapidly
transferring them worldwide. Abandoning the setting of emissions targets for
developing counries and creating instead a framework where all countries
contribute to maximizing technology creation and diffusion is what Copenhagen
should be about. |