nep-pke New Economics Papers
on Post Keynesian Economics
Issue of 2007‒08‒27
five papers chosen by
Karl Petrick
University of the West Indies

  1. John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig von Mises on Probability By van den Hauwe, Ludwig
  2. Industrial Policy and Growth By Helen Shapiro
  3. Fiscal Policy By John Weeks; Shruti Patel
  4. Investigating time-variation in the marginal predictive power of the yield spread. By Luca Benati; Charles Goodhart
  5. What Fisher Knew About His Relation, We Sometimes Forget By Taner Yigit; Neil Arnwine

  1. By: van den Hauwe, Ludwig
    Abstract: The economic paradigms of Ludwig von Mises on the one hand and of John Maynard Keynes on the other have been correctly recognized as antithetical at the theoretical level, and as antagonistic with respect to their practical and public policy implications. Characteristically they have also been vindicated by opposing sides of the political spectrum. Nevertheless the respective views of these authors with respect to the meaning and interpretation of probability exhibit a closer conceptual affinity than has been acknowledged in the literature. In particular it is argued that in some relevant respects Ludwig von Mises´ interpretation of the concept of probability exhibits a closer affinity with the interpretation of probability developed by his opponent John Maynard Keynes than with the views on probability espoused by his brother Richard von Mises. Nevertheless there also exist significant differences between the views of Ludwig von Mises and those of John Maynard Keynes with respect to probability. One of these is highlighted more particularly: where John Maynard Keynes advocated a monist view of probability, Ludwig von Mises embraced a dualist view of probability, according to which the concept of probability has two different meanings each of which is valid in a particular area or context. It is concluded that both John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig von Mises presented highly nuanced views with respect to the meaning and interpretation of probability.
    Keywords: General Methodology; Austrian Methodology; Keynesian Methodology; Quantitative and Qualitative Probability Concepts: Meaning and Interpretation; Frequency Interpretation; Logical Interpretation; John Maynard Keynes; Ludwig von Mises; Richard von Mises;
    JEL: B50 B53 B40 B49 C00 B00
    Date: 2007–03–12
  2. By: Helen Shapiro
    Abstract: The paper highlights how the rationales and instruments of industrial policy have changed since the 1960s. It finds that theories of industrialization have come full circle, as many of the assumptions behind the market failure paradigm have made a comeback. The policy implications of these theories, however, have not been similarly resurrected. It makes an explicit comparison between the strategies of East Asia and Latin America, and reviews the explanations for their divergent performance. It identifies a “back to the future” quality of Latin America’s situation, pointing to the region’s balance of payments constraint and dependence on commodity-like industrial products.
    Keywords: Industrial Policy, Competitiveness, East Asia, Latin America
    JEL: L52 L53 O14 O38 O53 O54 F13
    Date: 2007–08
  3. By: John Weeks (Professor Emeritus, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London); Shruti Patel (Centre for Development Policy & Research School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London)
    Abstract: .
    Keywords: Training, Modules, Research Programme, Economic Policies, MDGs, Poverty
    Date: 2007–07
  4. By: Luca Benati (European Central Bank, Kaiserstraße 29, 60311 Frankfurt, Germany.); Charles Goodhart (London School of Economics and Political Science, Room R414, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, United Kingdom.)
    Abstract: We use Bayesian time-varying parameters VARs with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in the marginal predictive content of the yield spread for output growth in the United States and the United Kingdom, since the Gold Standard era, and in the Eurozone, Canada, and Australia over the post-WWII period. Overall, our evidence does not provide much support for either of the two dominant explanations why the yield spread may contain predictive power for output growth, the monetary policy-based one, and Harvey’s (1988) ‘real yield curve’ one. Instead, we offer a new conjecture. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, forthcoming. JEL Classification: E42, E43, E47.
    Keywords: Bayesian VARs, stochastic volatility, time-varying parameters, medianunbiased estimation, Monte Carlo integration.
    Date: 2007–08
  5. By: Taner Yigit; Neil Arnwine
    Date: 2007

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