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on Public Economics |
| By: | Yukihiro Nishimura (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the Atkinson‒Stiglitz Theorem by relaxing the assumption of weak separability of preferences. We show that, to supplement income taxation, the optimal commodity tax burden relative to disposable income is regressive. This regressivity reinforces the classic U-shaped pattern of optimal labor income taxation. Moreover, when goods are complementary to labor, e.g., child care, the overall marginal labor tax burden increases once commodity taxes are introduced; when they are substitutes, it decreases. Under the Rawlsian objective, these variations in marginal tax rates have stronger effects at lower income levels. |
| Keywords: | Commodity tax, Income tax, Marginal income tax rates |
| JEL: | H21 H24 D63 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2508r |
| By: | Meakin, Rory |
| Abstract: | Inheritance tax is levied on the estates of the deceased, including on lifetime gifts made up to seven years prior to death. Roman emperors levied taxes on inheritances, and the British history goes back to the Stamp Act 1694, later modernised by the Finance Act 1894 with the introduction of the estate duty. Rates were initially low with a top rate of 8% on estates worth over £1 million (£116 million in 2025 prices). But they rose precipitously over the 20th century to reach 85% before being renamed as capital transfer tax, applying to lifetime gifts, before reverting back to a tax on death estates only in the mid-1980s and being renamed again as today's inheritance tax at a single headline rate of 40%. Britain's top headline rate of 40% is only moderately above the median rate among OECD countries which levy a tax, Czechia's 35%. But 18 out of the 38 OECD countries, almost half, do not levy a tax on bequests to adult children of the deceased, and 10 charge preferential rates. Including these countries and those without a tax at all, Britain ranks fifth highest and is in a small group of high-tax outliers. Much policy-expert commentary on the question of inheritance tax being a 'double' tax is mistaken, and the general public are closer to the truth. It may strictly speaking not be a 'double' tax given all the others that apply, but it is arbitrary, additional and distortionary. The correct lens to consider the question is the value chain from creation to consumption; inheritance tax somewhat arbitrarily introduces an additional point of taxation into the chain. The only way to make an inheritance tax neutral would be to implement a retrospective matching tax rebate for taxed income originally received by the benefactor. Inheritance tax is particularly complex and costly to administer, but its effects on savings and investment and redistribution are more ambiguous, as is public opinion on the question of how to reform it. The public considers it to be unfair, and there is a large majority in favour of reducing it, and sometimes of abolishing it. But that opinion appears to weaken significantly when set against alternative taxes to cut instead. There is a good case for abolishing inheritance tax entirely due to its arbitrary and distortionary nature, its complexity, its effect on savings and investment, its effect on Britain's international competitiveness in attracting entrepreneurs and the very rich, and satisfying public opinion. But it is harder to make the case for abolition as a policy priority above other alternative tax cuts which might deliver greater effects on incentives when governments are unwilling to restrain spending enough to allow both. More incremental reforms offer significantly weaker tax simplification, neutrality and efficiency benefits but come with smaller foregone revenues for the exchequer and represent a smaller opportunity cost in terms of alternative potential tax reforms. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ieadps:339580 |
| By: | Nora Paulus (DF, Université du Luxembourg); Weihua Ruan (Purdue University Northwest, USA); Benteng Zou (DEM, Université du Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | "Corporate tax competition has driven statutory rates downward for decades, eroding fiscal capacity and raising concerns about global equity. The OECD/G20 Global Minimum Tax (GMT) seeks to halt this “race to the bottom, ” yet its dynamic implications remain unclear. We study the GMT with a differential game of international tax competition with mobile capital. Governments set corporate tax rates while multinational firms reallocate capital in response to effective taxwedges created by the minimum tax and the substance-based income exclusion. We distinguish between Markovian behavior, in which governments adjust tax rates in response to current capital allocations, and open-loop behavior, in which they commit to tax paths in advance. We also compare enforcement through Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Taxes (QDMTT) and the Income Inclusion Rule (IIR). In the Markovian game, the GMT does not pin down a unique long-run outcome: a continuum of steady states arises under both enforcement regimes, including low-tax configurations. By contrast, under open-loop commitment the dynamic system is saddle-point stable, implying convergence to a unique transition path for given initial conditions. Commitment therefore acts as a dynamic selection device. Whether the economy converges to high- or low-tax configurations depends on enforcement: under QDMTT, a race to the bottom may emerge when public revenue is used inefficiently and the minimum tax is sufficiently high, whereas under IIR such dynamics are ruled out. Overall, the GMT can stabilize tax competition under commitment but does not, in general, eliminate downward pressure on statutory rates." |
| Keywords: | "Dynamic Tax Competition; Qualified Domestic Minimum Top-up Taxes; Income InclusionRule; Global Minimum Taxation." |
| JEL: | C73 F21 H21 H87 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:26-07 |
| By: | Jakub Growiec; Klaus Prettner; Maciej Szkr\'obka |
| Abstract: | We characterize the optimal tax policy in an economy with human manual and cognitive labor, physical capital, and artificial intelligence (AI). Extending the dynamic taxation setup of Slavik and Yazici (2014), we find that it is optimal to start taxing AI when cognitive workers start to consider switching to manual jobs. This threshold may be crossed once AI becomes sufficiently capable in substituting humans across cognitive tasks. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.17898 |
| By: | Valentino Larcinese; Alberto Parmigiani |
| Abstract: | Does higher income inequality increase political inequality by raising the political influence of rich donors? We attempt to answer this question by providing evidence of the effects of a policy-induced rise in income inequality on the concentration of campaign contributions in the US. Using a novel dataset at the Census tract level we show that the 1986 Tax Reform Act, which disproportionately benefited wealthy taxpayers, caused a spike in individual contributions, predominantly from donors at the top of the income distribution. The effect was similar for both parties and unrelated to the recipients' ideology or office sought. For members of Congress, the effect was larger for legislators that voted in favour of the tax bill and for candidates likely to be well-connected or from privileged backgrounds. We also find that an increase in disposable income is more likely to induce political donations when the donor and the recipient share a similar social background. Taken together, our results suggest that the effects of tax policy extend beyond the economic domain, with implications for the distribution of political influence through campaign contributions. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, political inequality, political influence, taxation, campaign finance |
| JEL: | D72 H24 D31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12574 |
| By: | François Le Grand (ESSEC Business School); Xavier Ragot (Sciences Po - Sciences Po, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | We analyze optimal fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model with capital accumulation and aggregate shocks, where the government uses public debt, a capital tax, and a progressive labor tax to finance public spending. We first study a tractable model and show that the steady-state optimal capital tax can be positive if credit constraints are occasionally binding. However, the existence of such an equilibrium depends on the shape of the utility function. We also characterize the optimal dynamic of public debt after a public spending shock. We confirm these findings by solving for optimal policy in a general heterogeneous-agent model. |
| Keywords: | D31, E44, H21, public debt JEL codes: E21, optimal fiscal policy, Heterogeneous agents, Heterogeneous agents optimal fiscal policy public debt JEL codes: E21 H21 E44 D31 |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05547657 |
| By: | Yoshimichi Murakami (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN); Aya Noritake (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | Although the defined contribution pension system in Chile had not permitted pension withdrawals before retirement age, the Chilean Congress approved laws allowing early withdrawals as an economic support measure in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study empirically analysed the effects of mainly the third early pension withdrawal on pre-retirement labour supply using data from a nationally and regionally representative household survey for 2022. To address potential endogeneity from self-selection into pension withdrawals, we applied inverse probability weighting based on propensity score estimation. The results showed that individuals who withdrew their pensions worked longer hours and had a higher probability of employment. These effects were more pronounced among women, while they were statistically insignificant for men. The findings were robust to household-level analysis, which additionally showed that pension savings withdrawn by women were more likely to be used for home repairs. Therefore, the early pension withdrawal, rather than reducing labour supply through the income effect, encouraged female labour supply, possibly due to improved remote-work conditions. |
| Keywords: | Early pension withdrawal; Labour supply; Chile; Inverse probability weighting; Propensity score; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | H55 J22 J26 J32 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2026-10 |
| By: | Brett Hemenway Falk; Gerry Tsoukalas |
| Abstract: | If AI displaces human workers faster than the economy can reabsorb them, it risks eroding the very consumer demand firms depend on. We show that knowing this is not enough for firms to stop it. In a competitive task-based model, demand externalities trap rational firms in an automation arms race, displacing workers well beyond what is collectively optimal. The resulting loss harms both workers and firm owners. More competition and "better" AI amplify the excess; wage adjustments and free entry cannot eliminate it. Neither can capital income taxes, worker equity participation, universal basic income, upskilling, or Coasian bargaining. Only a Pigouvian automation tax can. The results suggest that policy should address not only the aftermath of AI labor displacement but also the competitive incentives that drive it. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.20617 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti |
| Abstract: | Abstract Immigration affects the Finnish economy in various ways, including through the labour market, productivity, and public finances. The economic impact depends primarily on the skills of the newcomers and the success of their integration. Work-based and highly educated immigration strengthens employment, productivity, and tax revenues rapidly, whereas the economic benefits of humanitarian immigration tend to be weaker. Immigration increases the supply of labour, supports business growth and innovation, and expands exports. In terms of public finances, the effects differ significantly between groups, but integration measures play a key role: targeted language training, recognition of skills, and swift access to the labour market improve employment and reduce the need for income transfers, as well as deliver benefits across generations. In the long term, Finland needs immigration to stabilise the working-age population and safeguard the conditions for economic growth as the population ages and the workforce declines. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Integration, Labour market, Public finances, Economic impacts |
| JEL: | J61 H53 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:177 |
| By: | Enrico Rubolino; Enrico Rubolino |
| Abstract: | Declining civic engagement increasingly strains welfare state institutions. This paper asks whether civic values can be shaped through early educational investments. I study Tax and School, a large-scale program implemented in Italian primary and secondary schools to promote fiscal and civic responsibility. Exploiting staggered cross-municipality adoption, I find that exposure increases students' intrinsic motivation for rule compliance and reduces antisocial behaviors, particularly in socio-economically disadvantaged contexts. These student-level responses gradually aggregate into community-level outcomes: exposed municipalities later exhibit higher voter turnout and stronger support for redistributive policies. Survey evidence points to belief updating about the value of public goods and the role of government in mitigating inequality as a central mechanism. Counterfactual simulations imply that scaling the program could attenuate the secular decline in voter turnout. |
| Keywords: | civic capital, civic education, tax morale, political participation |
| JEL: | I21 H26 D72 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12575 |
| By: | Anders G Fr{\o}seth |
| Abstract: | We extend the Fokker--Planck framework of Fr{\o}seth (2026, arXiv:2603.05283) to populations of investors with heterogeneous, persistent return-generating ability. When the drift coefficient in the Langevin equation for log-wealth varies across investors, the proportional wealth tax remains a uniform drift shift but ceases to be neutral in the economic sense: its real incidence differs across ability types, and the stationary wealth distribution changes shape. We derive the extended Fokker--Planck equation on the joint space of log-wealth and ability, characterise the conditions under which the drift-shift symmetry breaks, and identify the consequences for asset prices and portfolio allocations. The analysis connects the neutrality results of Fr{\o}seth (2026, arXiv:2603.05264) and the Fokker--Planck dynamics of Fr{\o}seth (2026, arXiv:2603.05283) to the heterogeneous-returns literature, notably the "use-it-or-lose-it" mechanism of Guvenen, Kambourov, Kuruscu, Ocampo-Diaz and Chen (2023). |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.16006 |
| By: | Michael C. Best; Felipe Lobel; Valdemar Pinho Neto |
| Abstract: | We study how cash transfers affect work and health. Exploiting an increase in the generosity of the world's largest cash-transfer program for the extremely poor, we show that the reform raised employment by 5 percent while sharply improving health: hospitalization fell 8 percent and mortality 14 percent, saving roughly 1, 000 lives. These findings challenge the view that transfers reduce work. Instead, transfers can relax binding subsistence and health constraints, raise productivity, and expand labor supply. We formalize this mechanism in a model of productive inclusion and use it to evaluate welfare, yielding lessons for antipoverty policy design in low-income settings. |
| JEL: | H21 H31 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35006 |
| By: | Adaramola, Shekinah |
| Abstract: | In March 2026, the UK Home Secretary announced that 350, 000 “low‑skilled workers and their dependents” would cost taxpayers £10 billion over their lifetimes. She used this figure to justify making migrants wait longer before they can settle in the UK. This paper investigates where the £10 billion claim came from, how it was used in the speech, and what the wider evidence actually says about migrants’ financial contributions. The research finds that the £10 billion figure does not appear as a main finding in the reports it was said to come from. Instead, it is a combination of three specific groups that the reports show would have a negative impact. Those same reports also show that skilled workers would contribute £47 billion more than they cost—a fact the Home Secretary did not mention. The speech also left out another important context: the average UK‑born person also has a negative lifetime fiscal balance; most migrants are already paying taxes while being barred from receiving benefits; and the figures come with many uncertainties. The wider literature confirms that negative fiscal impacts are concentrated in particular subgroups, while most migrants make net positive contributions over their lifetimes. The paper argues that the £10 billion figure functions as a political artefact: its selective deployment constructs migrants as a fiscal burden, legitimising restrictive settlement policy while foreclosing honest public deliberation about trade‑offs, long‑term planning, and institutional credibility in migration governance. Keywords: migration policy, fiscal impact, settlement, quantification, political discourse, United Kingdom |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f46w8_v1 |
| By: | Kauhanen, Antti |
| Abstract: | Abstract The report demonstrates that the economic impacts of immigration are not unequivocally positive or negative, but are decisively influenced by the structure of immigration and the success of integration. Work-based and highly educated immigration clearly yields positive effects for public finances, whereas humanitarian immigration is initially a fiscal burden, although outcomes may improve with effective integration. Those who arrive for protection purposes tend to have lower employment rates and income levels compared to the native population for a prolonged period, even though these differences narrow as their length of stay increases. In the context of an ageing population, immigration also has growing long-term significance. The shrinking working-age population reduces labour supply, productivity and the sustainability of public finances, and to reverse this trend Finland needs a higher net immigration than at present. Increasing work-based immigration in particular strengthens economic growth and the funding base of the welfare state. The overall message is that the economic impacts of immigration are determined both by who moves to Finland and by how the country supports their integration. With appropriately targeted policies, immigration can enhance labour supply, increase productivity, and strengthen the sustainability of public finances even in the long term. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Integration, Labour market, Public finances, Economic impacts |
| JEL: | J61 H53 J15 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:176 |