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on Public Economics |
| By: | Sato, Hideki |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the following two questions focusing on state sales tax and the behavior of a monopolist: (1) Under what conditions would a monopolist evade state sales tax even if evasion is costly? and (2) Can tax rates and enforcement be effective deterrents against evasion? The analysis reveals that, under certain conditions, a monopolist facing enforcement may underreport sales rather than not report them at all, even if evasion incurs costs. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that reducing tax rates and strengthening enforcement can effectively prevent tax evasion and that such preventive measures can lead to increased tax revenue. |
| Keywords: | Sales tax, Monopolist, Tax evasion, Tax enforcement. |
| JEL: | D42 H26 H32 H71 |
| Date: | 2025–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127426 |
| By: | Ablyatifov, Emin; Lukyanov, Georgy |
| Abstract: | We study optimal taxation when the conversion of tax revenue into public goods is uncertain. In a static Ramsey framework with a representative household, a competitive firm, and two broad instruments (a labor-income tax and a commodity/output tax), a simple measure of trust— the perceived likelihood that revenue is actually delivered as public consumption—scales the marginal value of public funds. We show: (i) a trust threshold below which any distortionary taxation reduces welfare; (ii) above that threshold, policy uniquely pins down the scale of taxation but leaves a continuum of tax mixes (an equivalence frontier) that implement the same allocation and welfare; and (iii) tiny administrative or salience wedges select a unique instrument, typically favoring a broad base collected at source. We derive a trust-adjusted Ramsey rule in sufficient-statistics form, establish robustness to mild preference non-separabilities and concave public-good utility, and provide an isoelastic specialization with transparent comparative statics. |
| Keywords: | Optimal taxation; public goods; credibility; marginal value of public funds; tax; mix; administration. |
| JEL: | E61 H21 H30 C73 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131432 |
| By: | Tommaso Giommoni; Gabriel Loumeau; Marco Tabellini |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide systematic evidence in support of the long-standing hypothesis that taxation was an important driver of the French Revolution. We first document that areas with heavier taxes experienced more riots between 1750 and 1789 and voiced more complaints against taxation in the cahiers de doléances of 1789. After showing that these effects are driven by indirect taxes, we exploit sharp spatial differences in the salt tax and the traites—the two principal indirect levies—to implement a regression discontinuity design (RDD).We find that unrest was higher on the high-tax side of the border. These effects intensified over time, peaking in the 1780s, and were stronger where fiscal disparities were larger and Enlightenment ideas more widespread. We further show that adverse weather shocks amplified unrest in high-tax municipalities. We then document that taxation fueled the spread of unrest during the Grande Peur—the wave of revolts that swept France in July 1789 and culminated in the abolition of feudal privileges. Finally, we link taxation to revolutionary politics in Paris, documenting that deputies from heavily taxed constituencies were more likely to frame the tax system as oppressive, support the Revolution, demand the abolition of the monarchy, and vote for the king’s execution. |
| JEL: | D74 H20 H31 N43 O23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34816 |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Grégoire Rota-Graziosi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the economic consequences of (taxing) power fragmentation using both theory and data. We first formalize tax policy as the result of interministerial competition where the Minister of Finance ('Guardian') and the Minister of Mines ('Spender') have distinct objective functions, whereby the former attempts to stop the latter from extending tax incentives to attract investment in the sector. |
| Keywords: | Institutions, Tax policy, Resource curse |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-7 |
| By: | Maciel, Mateus; Zuchowski, David |
| Abstract: | Investment in critical infrastructure is essential for long-term development. However, low tax revenues in developing countries often constrain such investment. In this paper, we examine whether the expansion of high-speed mobile internet infrastructure can generate additional tax revenue. To identify the causal effect, we exploit the staggered rollout of 3G and 4G infrastructure across municipalities in Brazil. Using an event study approach, we find that the expansion of this technology leads to a lasting increase in income tax revenue, driven almost entirely by higher corporate income tax collection. We show that the additional tax revenue results from increased economic activity and formalization following the expansion of high-speed mobile internet. Our findings indicate that investment in digital infrastructure can stimulate economic growth and strengthen fiscal capacity in developing countries. This means that policymakers in developing countries with low tax revenues should expand their focus beyond tax-collection reforms and integrate growth-enhancing investments into their agenda. |
| Keywords: | tax revenues, mobile internet, poverty trap, developing countries, Brazil |
| JEL: | H20 H71 O18 O38 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127865 |
| By: | Weinrich, Arndt |
| Abstract: | Exploiting granular European innovation data and the introduction of nexus requirements to patent boxes, I find that tightening access to preferential tax treatment of innovation output reduces inventive activity. A stylized framework and firm-reported constraints both point to internal funding as the binding mechanism. Consistently, effects appear on both the extensive margin, lowering the number of innovating firms, and the intensive margin, reducing resources devoted to innovation. Externally organized innovation declines relative to in-house activity, and innovation quality declines modestly. Spillover analyses indicate innovation decreases reflect forgone rather than reallocated innovation. Findings inform tax policy design and corporate innovation strategies. |
| Keywords: | nnovation, International Taxation, Patent Box, Nexus Requirements |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:336789 |
| By: | Nicholas Lacoste (Tulane University); Zehra Farooq (Federal Board of Revenue, Pakistan) |
| Abstract: | This paper bridges welfare economics and machine learning econometrics to develop empirically implementable algorithms for optimal audit targeting. We derive a sufficient statistic-based targeting algorithm that depends on three individualized causal effects: the immediate revenue recovered from an audit, the causal effect of an audit on long-run tax revenue, and the marginal administrative cost of an audit. We estimate these effects with a variety of machine learners comparing causal forests, LASSO, gradient boosted trees, and neural networks using the universe of Pakistani income tax returns, exploiting years in which audits were assigned completely at random. We implement our targeting algorithms in out-of-bag years, comparing them to the real-world policy when audits were partially or entirely targeted. We show that the real world audit program in Pakistan lost almost 173, 000 Rs ($1, 700) in net revenue per-audit, while our optimal policy generates 285, 000 Rs ($2, 800) in expected net revenue per-audit. We also find that targeting audits based on immediate recoup is sub-optimal to targeting on long-run deterrence in this setting. Moving forward, our framework offers a general approach to empirical welfare maximization using machine learning in resource-constrained policy settings. |
| Keywords: | optimal audit policy, tax enforcement, machine learning, sufficient statistics |
| JEL: | H21 H26 C14 C45 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2603 |
| By: | Brenzel-Weiss, Janosch; Koeniger, Winfried; Valladares-Esteban, Arnau |
| Abstract: | We calibrate a lifecycle portfolio-choice model of homeowners facing uninsurable income risk to show that tax deductions for mortgage interest payments and voluntary pension contributions have sizable effects on household portfolios and macroprudential risks. The deductions reduce the after-tax cost of debt and increase the after-tax return of pension savings so that the mortgage incidence increases and portfolios shift from home equity and liquid assets towards pension savings. Because the consumption responses to a house-price decline are heterogeneous, the distribution of household debt shapes the quantitative effect of the tax deductions on the homeowners' resilience after a house price bust. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage amortization, Tax incentives, Household consumption, Portfolio choice, Housing busts, Economic stability, Macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | D14 D15 D31 E21 G11 G21 H24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:336755 |
| By: | Bukhari, Muhammad Zaman; Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | Transfer pricing estimations play a crucial role in transactions involving multinational enterprises, and the decisions regarding transfer pricing may be affected by a range of influential factors. This research investigates selected external determinants that impact transfer pricing choices made by multinational enterprises across a sample comprising 95 countries. Panel data covering the years from 2014 to 2023 has been employed for empirical analysis, and using panel data regression techniques, the study assesses the influence of several variables, including effective tax rates, the level of economic development, the extent of trade openness, and the quality of regulatory institutions, which shape the strategies of multinational enterprises concerning profit shifting. The findings indicate that lower levels of taxation, weaker enforcement of legal standards, and greater trade openness contribute to a higher probability of manipulative transfer pricing behavior. The research concludes that practices related to base erosion and profit shifting can be curtailed by improving the strength of legal enforcement mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Transfer Pricing, Profit Shifting, Tax Avoidance, Regulatory Institutions |
| JEL: | H2 H3 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127320 |
| By: | Haotian Deng; Sam Desiere; Bart Cockx; Gert Bijnens (-) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how employment subsidies for start-ups shape their performance. We exploit an unexpected policy reform in Belgium that permanently exempted start-ups hiring their first employee from payroll taxes for that employee. Using firm-level administrative data and a regression-discontinuity-in-time design, we find that subsidized post-reform startups employed fewer workers and generated lower output, value added, and profits compared to pre-reform start-ups. However, post-reform start-ups were more likely to survive as employers. These effects emerged within the first year after hiring and remained stable over a medium horizon of three years. Our findings indicate a compositional shift: the subsidy primarily induced low-productivity firms to enter the market. As most firms nowadays are nonemployers, our results meaningfully generalize the theoretical implications of standard neoclassical entrepreneurship models (employee–employer margin) and fill the important gap of the nonemployer–employer margin. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship, start-up, employment subsidy, tax reduction, labor demand, small firms |
| JEL: | H25 J23 J24 J38 L25 L26 M51 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1135 |
| By: | Sam Desiere (Ghent University, Belgium); Rigas Oikonomou (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Tiziano Toniolo (IZA, Germany); Bruno Van der Linden (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); Gert Bijnens (National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Belgium’s 2016 payroll tax exemption for first-time employers triggered a sharp increase in firms hiring their first worker but little growth among larger firms. To account for this pattern, we develop and estimate a directed search model—with discrete hiring, firm heterogeneity, and endogenous entry—using Belgian microdata. The exemption reduces the high marginal cost of the first hire, enabling many previously non-hiring entrepreneurs to become employers, but most lack the productivity needed to expand beyond one worker. The model matches the post-reform size distribution and identifies the conditions under which size-dependent hiring subsidies can foster sustained firm growth. |
| Keywords: | payroll taxes; size-dependent policies; hiring frictions; wage subsidies; competitive search theory |
| JEL: | H25 J08 J23 J38 L25 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2026003 |
| By: | Tatsuru Kikuchi |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the causal impact of Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) adoption on productivity and systemic risk in the U.S. banking sector. Using a novel dataset linking SEC 10-Q filings to Federal Reserve regulatory data for 809 financial institutions over 2018--2025, we employ two complementary identification strategies: Dynamic Spatial Durbin Models (DSDM) to capture network spillovers and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) for causal inference using the November 2022 ChatGPT release as an exogenous shock. Our findings reveal a striking ``Productivity Paradox'': while DSDM estimates show that AI-adopting banks are high performers ($\beta > 0$), the causal SDID analysis documents a significant ``Implementation Tax'' -- adopting banks experience a 428-basis-point decline in ROE as they absorb GenAI integration costs. This tax falls disproportionately on smaller institutions, with bottom-quartile banks suffering a 517-basis-point ROE decline compared to 129 basis points for larger banks, suggesting that economies of scale provide significant advantages in AI implementation. Most critically, our DSDM analysis reveals significant positive spillovers ($\theta = 0.161$ for ROA, $p |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.02607 |