nep-pbe New Economics Papers
on Public Economics
Issue of 2013‒12‒29
24 papers chosen by
Keunjae Lee
Pusan National University

  1. Can Automatic Tax Increases Pay for the Public Spending Effects of Population Ageing in New Zealand? By John Creedy; Norman Gemmell
  2. Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective By Selahattin Imrohoroglu; Gary Hansen
  3. Revenue-Maximising Elasticities of Taxable Income in Multi-Rate Income Tax Structures By John Creedy
  4. Growth Forecast Errors and Government Investment and Consumption Multipliers By Branimir Jovanovic
  5. Discriminatory Taxes are Unpopular - Even when they are Efficient and Distributionally Fair By Rupert Sausgruber; Jean-Robert Tyran
  6. Ramsey monetary and fiscal policy: the role of consumption taxation By Giorgio Motta; Raffaele Rossi
  7. The literacy impact on tax revenues By Mutascu, Mihai; Danuletiu, Dan
  8. Does Corporate Income Taxation Affect Securitization? Evidence from OECD Banks By Gong, D.; Ligthart, J.E.
  9. Estimating Firm-Level Effective Marginal Tax Rates and the User Cost of Capital in New Zealand By Richard Fabling; Norman Gemmell; Richard Kneller; Lynda Sanderson
  10. Shifting Taxes from Labor to Consumption: Efficient, but Regressive? By Pestel, Nico; Sommer, Eric
  11. Simulating the Elimination of the U.S. Corporate Income Tax By Hans Fehr; Sabine Jokisch; Ashwin Kambhampati; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  12. Do corporate tax cuts increase investments? By Brandstetter, Laura; Jacob, Martin
  13. The Optimal Distribution of the Tax Burden over the Business Cycle By Angelopoulos, Konstantinos; Asimakopoulos, Stylianosulos; Malley, James
  14. Obesity and smoking: can we catch two birds with one tax? By Davide, Dragone; Francesco, Manaresi; Luca, Savorelli
  15. Fiscal Policy in a Real-Business-Cycle Model with Labor-intensive Government Services and Endogenous Public Sector Wages and Hours By Vasilev, Aleksandar
  16. Competition for FDI and profit shifting: On the effects of subsidies and tax breaks By De Feo, Giuseppe; Amergighi, Oscar
  17. Cross-Country Spillovers from Fiscal Consolidations By Antoine Goujard
  18. Anticipation, Learning and Welfare: the Case of Distortionary Taxation By Emanuel, Gasteiger; Shoujian, Zhang
  19. Democracy, Redistribution and Inequality By Daron Acemoglu; Suresh Naidu; Pascual Restrepo; James A. Robinson
  20. Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive By Dennis, Richard
  21. Do payroll tax cuts raise youth employment? By Egebark, Johan; Kaunitz, Niklas
  22. Product market integration, tax distortions and public sector size By Torben M. Andersen; Allan Sørensen
  23. Growth is (really) good for the (really) rich By Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M.; Chavez, Emmanuel; Esquivel, Gerardo
  24. New Econometric Estimates of Long-term Growth Effects of Different Areas of Public Spending By Omar Barbiero; Boris Cournède

  1. By: John Creedy; Norman Gemmell (The Treasury; Victoria University of Wellington)
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which projected aggregate tax revenue changes, in association with population ageing over the next 50 years, can be expected to finance expected increases in social welfare expenditures. It uses projections from two separate models, dealing with social expenditures and income tax and GST revenue. The results suggest that the modest increase required in the overall average tax rate over the next 50 years can be achieved automatically by adjusting income tax thresholds using an index of prices rather than wages. Based on evidence about the New Zealand tax system over the last 50 years, comparisons of average and marginal tax rates suggest that such an increase may be feasible and affordable. The paper discusses the range of considerations involved in deciding if this automatic increase in the aggregate average tax rate, via real fiscal drag of personal income taxes, is desirable compared with alternative fiscal policy changes.
    Keywords: Social welfare expenditures; income tax; GST; real fiscal drag; ageing population
    JEL: E62 H68
    Date: 2013–12
  2. By: Selahattin Imrohoroglu (University of Southern California); Gary Hansen (UCLA)
    Abstract: Past government spending in Japan is currently imposing a significant fiscal bur- den that is reflected in a net debt to GNP ratio above 100 percent. In addition, the aging of Japanese society implies that public expenditures and transfers payments relative to GNP are projected to continue to rise until at least 2050. In this paper we use a standard growth model to measure the size of this burden in the form of additional taxes required to meet these obligations that maintain current promised levels of per capita public pension and health services. The fiscal adjustment needed is about a 30 percentage point increase in taxes, using either the consumption tax rate or the labor income tax rate. The latter is far more distorting than the former, leading to a significant loss in welfare. Our results highlight the importance of containing the projected increases in public spending and exploring policies designed to enlarge the tax base.
    Date: 2013
  3. By: John Creedy (The Treasury)
    Abstract: This paper provides a technical introduction to the use of the elasticity of taxable income in welfare comparisons and optimal tax discussions. It draws together, using a consistent framework and notation, a number of established results concerning marginal welfare changes and optimal taxes. Particular attention is given to the way value judgements can be specified when using this approach, and results are illustrated using the New Zealand income tax. In addition, some new results, particularly in terms of non-marginal tax changes, are presented.
    Keywords: Income taxation; Taxable income; Elasticity of taxable income; Excess burden of taxation; Marginal welfare cost; Optimum tax
    JEL: H21 H24 H31
    Date: 2013–12
  4. By: Branimir Jovanovic (University of Rome Tor Vergata)
    Abstract: We compare the government investment and government consumption multipliers in the advanced economies during the recent ?scal consolidation, folloeing the Blanchard and Leigh (2013) approach. We find that, in the highly-indebted countries, the investment multplier is likely to be much higher than what has been assumed by the policy makers and much higher that the consumption multiplier. This points out that the consolidation should be accompanied by increased public investment.
    Keywords: fiscal consolidation, fiscal multiplier, public consumption, public investment, public debt
    JEL: E52 E62 E63 G01
    Date: 2013–12–17
  5. By: Rupert Sausgruber (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Jean-Robert Tyran (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)
    Abstract: We explore the political acceptance of taxation in commodity markets. Participants in our experiment earn incomes by trading and must collectively choose one of two tax regimes to raise a given tax revenue. A "uniform tax" (UT) imposes the same tax rate on all markets and is fair in that it yields the same – but low – income to participants in all markets. The "discriminatory tax" (DT) imposes a higher burden on markets with inelastic demand and is therefore efficient but it is also unfair in that incomes are unequal across markets. We find that DT are unpopular, as predicted. Surprisingly, however, DT remain unpopular when they are both efficient and produce a fair (equal) distribution. We conclude that non-discrimination (equal treatment) is a salient fairness principle in taxation that shapes voting on commodity taxes above and beyond concerns for efficiency and equal distribution.
    Keywords: taxation, behavioral public economics, voting, efficiency, fairness
    JEL: C92 H21 D72
    Date: 2013–11
  6. By: Giorgio Motta; Raffaele Rossi
    Abstract: We study Ramsey monetary and fiscal policy in a small scale New Keynesian model where government spending has intrinsic value, public debt is state-noncontingent and the fiscal authority is constrained by using distortive taxation. We show that Ramsey policy is remarkably altered when consumption taxation is considered as a source of government revenues alongside or as an alternative to labour income taxes. First, we show that the optimal steady-state size of the public spending is, ceteris paribus, greater under consumption taxation than under labour income tax. We further show that adopting consumption taxation has enormous long run welfare gains and that these gains are increasing in the level of outstanding public debt. These welfare gains are not limited to the steady-state, but they are also present in the dynamic stochastic equilibrium. The reason is that the dynamic nature of consumption taxation enables the policy-maker to affect the stochastic discount factor via modifications of the marginal utility of consumption. This extra wedge impacts on the pricing decisions of firms, and hence on inflation stabilization, and greatly improves welfare in the stochastic equilibrium.
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Mutascu, Mihai; Danuletiu, Dan
    Abstract: The paper investigates the relationship between tax revenues and literacy level, using a panel-model approach. The dataset covers the period 1996 to 2010 and includes 123 countries. The estimations suggest that the assumed function is nonlinear, with inverted-U and U-shaped curves. More precisely, a very low literacy level is associated with reduced tax revenues. Furthermore, the government inputs increase as the literacy level increases, reaching a maximum point. Beyond this level, the tax revenues decrease even if the literacy has an ascendant tendency, registering a minimum level. Finally, the tax revenues increase in a parallel manner with the literacy index. --
    Keywords: literacy,tax revenues,nonlinearity,effects,tax policy
    JEL: I20 H20 C23
    Date: 2013
  8. By: Gong, D.; Ligthart, J.E. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research)
    Abstract: Abstract: Corporate income taxation, by affecting the after-tax cost of funding, has implications for a bank's incentive to securitize. Using a sample of OECD banks over the period 1999-2006, we fi nd that corporate income taxation led to more securitization at banks that are constrained in funding markets, while it did not affect securitization at unconstrained banks. This is consistent with prior theory suggesting that the tax effects of securitization depend on the extent to which banks face funding constraints. Our results suggest that a country's tax system has distorting effects on banks' securitization decisions and therefore proposals of new taxes on bank profi ts are inappropriate.
    Keywords: Securitization;Banking;Corporate Income Tax
    JEL: G21 H25
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Richard Fabling; Norman Gemmell; Richard Kneller; Lynda Sanderson (The Treasury)
    Abstract: Effective marginal tax rates (EMTRs) can be very different from the statutory rate and vary across firms, reflecting such factors as the extent and nature of taxable deductions (losses, depreciation), asset and ownership structures, and debt/equity financing. We estimate firm-specific EMTRs and related user cost of capital (UCC) measures allowing for shareholder-level taxation using data for 2000-2010 from the Longitudinal Business Database. Examining distributions of various UCC measures we find substantial firm-level heterogeneity, systematic changes as a result of tax reforms between 2004 and 2011, and systematic differences between foreign-owned and domestically-owned firms. Choices among alternative UCC measures make a difference to interpretations.
    Keywords: User cost of capital; tax reform; EMTR; New Zealand
    JEL: D22 G30 H25
    Date: 2013–12
  10. By: Pestel, Nico (IZA); Sommer, Eric (University of Cologne)
    Abstract: Shifting taxes from labor income to consumption is regularly suggested as a measure to induce work incentives. We investigate the effect of increases in the Value Added Tax on labor supply and the income distribution in Germany, which is compensated by a revenue-neutral reduction in income-related taxes. Based on a dual data base and a microsimulation model of labor supply behavior, we confirm a general regressive impact of such a tax shift in the short run. When accounting for labor supply adjustments, the adverse distributional impact persists for personal income tax reductions, while the overall effects on inequality and progressivity become substantially lower when payroll taxes are reduced, which is due to increased work incentives, especially for low-income households.
    Keywords: income and payroll taxes, consumption taxes, microsimulation, labor supply, inequality, Germany
    JEL: H21 H23 C63 D31
    Date: 2013–12
  11. By: Hans Fehr; Sabine Jokisch; Ashwin Kambhampati; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
    Abstract: We simulate corporate tax reform in a single good, five-region (U.S., Europe, Japan, China, India) model, featuring skilled and unskilled labor, detailed region-specific demographics and fiscal policies. Eliminating the model’s U.S. corporate income tax produces rapid and dramatic increases in the model’s level of U.S. investment, output, and real wages, making the tax cut self-financing to a significant extent. Somewhat smaller gains arise from revenue-neutral base broadening, specifically cutting the corporate tax rate to 9 percent and eliminating tax loop-holes.
    JEL: F0 F20 H0 H2 H3 J20
    Date: 2013–12
  12. By: Brandstetter, Laura; Jacob, Martin
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of corporate taxes on investment. Using firm-level data on German corporations, we investigate the 2008 tax reform that cut corporate taxes by 10 percentage points. We expect heterogeneous investment responses across firms, since firms with a foreign parent have more cross-country profit shifting opportunities than domestically owned firms. Using a matching difference-in-differences approach, we show that, following the corporate tax cut, domestically owned firms increased investments to a larger extent than foreign-owned firms. Our results imply that corporate tax changes can increase corporate investment but have heterogeneous investment responses across firms. --
    Keywords: Corporate taxation,Investment
    JEL: G31 H24 H25
    Date: 2013
  13. By: Angelopoulos, Konstantinos; Asimakopoulos, Stylianosulos; Malley, James
    Abstract: This paper analyses optimal income taxes over the business cycle under a balanced-budget restriction, for low, middle and high income households. A model incorporating capital-skill complementarity in production and differential access to capital and labour markets is developed to capture the cyclical characteristics of the US economy, as well as the empirical observations on wage (skill premium) and wealth inequality. We .nd that the tax rate for high income agents is optimally the least volatile and the tax rate for low income agents the least countercyclical. In contrast, the path of optimal taxes for the middle income group is found to be very volatile and counter-cyclical. We further find that the optimal response to output-enhancing capital equipment technology and spending cuts is to increase the progressivity of income taxes. Finally, in response to positive TFP shocks, taxation becomes more progressive after about two years.
    Keywords: optimal taxation, business cycle, skill premium, income distribution,
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Davide, Dragone; Francesco, Manaresi; Luca, Savorelli
    Abstract: The debate on tobacco and fat taxes often treats smoking and eating as independent behaviors. However, the available evidence shows that they are interdependent, which implies that policies against smoking or obesity may have larger scope than expected. To address this issue, we propose a dynamic rational model where eating and smoking are simultaneous choices that jointly affect body weight and addiction to smoking. Focusing on direct and cross-price effects, we compare tobacco taxes and food taxes and we show that a single policy tool can reduce both smoking and body weight. In particular, food taxes can be more effective than tobacco taxes at simultaneously fighting obesity and smoking.
    Keywords: Addiction, Fat Tax, Obesity, Smoking, Tobacco,
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Vasilev, Aleksandar
    Abstract: Motivated by the high public employment, and the public wage premia observed in Europe, a Real-Business-Cycle model, calibrated to German data (1970-2007), is set up with a richer government spending side, and an endogenous private-public sector labor choice. To illustrate the e ects of scal policy, two regimes are compared and contrasted to one another - exogenous vs. optimal (Ramsey) policy case. The main ndings from the computational experiments performed in this paper are: (i) The optimal steady-state capital tax rate is zero; (ii) A higher labor tax rate is needed in the Ramsey case to compensate for the loss in capital tax revenue; (iii) Under the optimal policy regime, public sector employment is lower, but government employees receive higher wages; (iv) The benevolent Ramsey planner provides the optimal amount of the public good, substitutes labor for capital in the input mix for public services production, and private output; (v) Government wage bill is smaller, while public investment is three times higher than in the exogenous policy case.
    Keywords: optimal policy, government spending, public employment and wages,
    Date: 2013
  16. By: De Feo, Giuseppe; Amergighi, Oscar
    Abstract: We investigate competition for FDI within a region when a foreign multinational rm can profitably exploit differences in statutory corporate tax rates by shifting taxable pro ts to lower-tax jurisdictions. In such framework we show that targeted tax competition may lead to higher welfare for the region as a whole than lump-sum subsidies when the difference in statutory corporate tax rates and/or their average is high enough. Tax competition is also preferable from an efficiency point of view (overall surplus) by changing the firm's investment decision when pro t shifting motivations induce the rm to locate in the (before tax) least pro table country.
    Keywords: Policy competition for FDI, Profit shifting, Tax discrimination,
    Date: 2013
  17. By: Antoine Goujard
    Abstract: In many OECD countries, government debt reached levels over recent years that call for reduction over the medium to longer term to ensure public finance sustainability. This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal consolidation shocks via trade flows. Using a measure of exogenous fiscal shocks in export markets, fiscal consolidation spillovers are found to slow domestic growth and decrease employment. When fiscal consolidation efforts are synchronised across partner countries, fiscal policies have large spillover effects on output. Spillovers of fiscal consolidations on growth are found to be initially larger between countries belonging to currency unions, though this larger impact vanishes over the medium term. Larger spillovers of fiscal consolidation coincide with stronger shifts in bilateral trade flows in currency unions in the short term, despite smaller adjustments in relative exchange rates. Spillovers of fiscal consolidation are also found to be more detrimental to domestic growth during economic downturns in export markets. Les répercussions internationales des consolidations fiscales Dans de nombreux pays de l’OCDE, la dette publique a récemment atteint des niveaux appelant sa réduction sur le moyen à long terme afin d’assurer la soutenabilité des finances publiques. Ce document étudie la transmission entre pays des chocs de politique fiscale par les flux commerciaux. Les politiques d’assainissement budgétaire dans les marchés d’exports apparaissent réduire la croissance domestique et l’emploi, lorsqu’une mesure exogène des politiques fiscales est utilisée. Si les efforts d’assainissement budgétaire sont synchronisés dans les pays partenaires, ceux-ci peuvent avoir des effets importants sur la croissance. Les répercussions des consolidations fiscales apparaissent initialement plus élevées entre les pays qui partagent la même monnaie, mais cet effet additionnel s’estompe sur le moyen terme. Les plus forts mouvements des flux commerciaux au sein des unions monétaires contribuent à ces effets externes plus importants à court terme bien que les ajustements des taux de changes réels soient plus faibles. Les consolidations fiscales dans les marchés d’exports apparaissent également avoir des répercussions plus importantes sur la croissance domestique lorsque les marchés d’exports sont en récession.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, fiscal consolidation, trade spillovers, international spillovers, effets externes, politique fiscale, intégration commerciale, assainissement budgétaire
    JEL: E23 E32 E62 F42
    Date: 2013–12–06
  18. By: Emanuel, Gasteiger; Shoujian, Zhang
    Abstract: We study the impact of anticipated fiscal policy changes in a Ramsey economy where agents form long-horizon expectations using adaptive learning. We extend the existing framework by introducing distortionary taxes as well as elastic labour supply, which makes agents. decisions non-predetermined but more realistic. We detect that the dynamic responses to anticipated tax changes under learning have oscillatory behaviour that can be interpreted as self-fulfilling waves of optimism and pessimism emerging from systematic forecast errors. Moreover, we demonstrate that these waves can have important implications for the welfare consequences of .scal reforms. (JEL: E32, E62, D84)
    Date: 2013
  19. By: Daron Acemoglu; Suresh Naidu; Pascual Restrepo; James A. Robinson
    Abstract: In this paper we revisit the relationship between democracy, redistribution and inequality. We first explain the theoretical reasons why democracy is expected to increase redistribution and reduce inequality, and why this expectation may fail to be realized when democracy is captured by the richer segments of the population; when it caters to the preferences of the middle class; or when it opens up disequalizing opportunities to segments of the population previously excluded from such activities, thus exacerbating inequality among a large part of the population. We then survey the existing empirical literature, which is both voluminous and full of contradictory results. We provide new and systematic reduced-form evidence on the dynamic impact of democracy on various outcomes. Our findings indicate that there is a significant and robust effect of democracy on tax revenues as a fraction of GDP, but no robust impact on inequality. We also find that democracy is associated with an increase in secondary schooling and a more rapid structural transformation. Finally, we provide some evidence suggesting that inequality tends to increase after democratization when the economy has already undergone significant structural transformation, when land inequality is high, and when the gap between the middle class and the poor is small. All of these are broadly consistent with a view that is different from the traditional median voter model of democratic redistribution: democracy does not lead to a uniform decline in post-tax inequality, but can result in changes in fiscal redistribution and economic structure that have ambiguous effects on inequality.
    JEL: O10 P16
    Date: 2013–12
  20. By: Dennis, Richard
    Abstract: We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.
    Keywords: Asset prices, business cycles, risk-sensitivity, Markov-Perfect, fiscal policy,
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Egebark, Johan (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Kaunitz, Niklas (SOFI, Stockholm University)
    Abstract: In 2007, the Swedish employer-paid payroll tax was cut on a large scale for young workers, substantially reducing labor costs for this group. We estimate a small impact, both on employment and on wages, implying a labor demand elasticity for young workers at around -0.31. Since the tax reduction applied also to excisting employments, the cost of the reform was sizable, and the estimated cost per created job is at more than four times that of directly hiring workers at the average wage. Hence, we conclude that payroll tax cuts are an inefficient way to boost employment for young individuals.
    Keywords: Youth unemployment; Payroll tax; Tax subsidy; Labor costs; Exact matching
    JEL: H25 H32 J23 J38 J68
    Date: 2013–12–20
  22. By: Torben M. Andersen (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University); Allan Sørensen (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University; Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University)
    Abstract: The implications of product market integration for public sector activities (transfers and public consumption) are considered in a standard setting. The analysis supports that a larger public sector (higher tax rate) tends to increase wages and worsen wage competitiveness. However, the implications of product market integration for the public sector are far from straightforward. The reason is gains-from-trade effects which tend to increase the tax base and decrease the opportunity costs of public consumption (marginal utility of private consumption falls). It follows that the retrenchment view that product market integration inevitable leads to a downward pressure on public sector activities does not get support in a standard setting. A particularly noteworthy ?finding is that a country with a large public sector (strong preferences for public consumption) may bene?fit more by integrating with a country with a smaller public sector (weak preferences for public consumption).
    Keywords: labour taxation, product market integration, public sector, policy spill-over
    JEL: H2 F1 J22
    Date: 2013–12–18
  23. By: Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M.; Chavez, Emmanuel; Esquivel, Gerardo
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between mean income and the income of the rich. Our methodology closely follows that of Dollar and Kraay (2002), but instead of looking at the bottom of the distribution, we analyze the top. We use panel data from the World Top Incomes database, which collects top income data from several countries using tax returns as the raw source. We define the “rich” as earners in the top 10 percent, 1 percent, 0.1 percent, and 0.01 percent of the income distribution. We find that economic growth is good for the rich in the sense that the mean income of the top decile of the distribution grows in the same proportion as that of the whole population. However, we also find that the income of earners in the top percentile of the distribution and above grows in an even larger proportion than average income: that is, economic growth is really good for the really rich. We also find that during economic downturns, the average income of top earners responds proportionally less to changes in mean income than during economic expansions. Our results are robust to different sample specifications.
    Keywords: Growth, Income distribution; Inequality; Top Income; Rich.
    JEL: D31 D63 E01 I30 O40
    Date: 2013–12
  24. By: Omar Barbiero; Boris Cournède
    Abstract: Using panel data for OECD countries, this study investigates the extent to which changes in government spending on education, health and other areas influence long-term growth. The results suggest that, if total government spending is kept unchanged, increasing expenditure on health, education and transport raises long-term GDP growth. In contrast, government spending on housing is found to weaken long-term GDP growth. The error-correction specification used allows assessing adjustment speed which, consistent with intuition, is estimated to be slow. According to the econometric results, it takes more than five years for half of the effect of a change in the structure of government spending to be reflected in longterm growth. Nouvelles évaluations économétriques de l'effet à long terme sur la croissance de différentes catégories de dépense publique Au moyen de données de panel pour les pays de l’OCDE, cette étude examine la manière dont les modifications du niveau des dépenses publiques d’éducation, de santé et dans d’autres domaines influencent la croissance à long terme. Les résultats suggèrent que, pour un niveau donné de dépenses publiques totales, une augmentation des dépenses de santé, d’éducation et de transport augmente la croissance à long terme. À l’inverse, les dépenses publiques de logement semblent affaiblir la croissance à long terme. Le modèle à correction d’erreur employé pour cette étude permet d’évaluer la vitesse d’ajustement qui, conformément à l’intuition, se révèle être lente. D’après les résultats économétriques, il faut compter plus de cinq ans avant que 50% des effets d’un changement de la structure des dépenses publiques ne se fassent sentir dans la croissance à long terme.
    Keywords: government expenditure, public spending, public health spending, economic growth, public education spending, government infrastructure spending, long-term growth, dépenses publiques d’éducation, dépenses publiques d’infrastructure, croissance économique, dépenses publiques de santé, croissance à long terme, dépenses publiques
    JEL: H11 H51 H52
    Date: 2013–12–06

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