nep-pbe New Economics Papers
on Public Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒14
23 papers chosen by
Keunjae Lee
Pusan National University

  1. The political economics of redistribution, inequality and tax avoidance By Bethencourt, Carlos; Kunze, Lars
  2. Federal Income Tax Revenue Volatility Since 1966 By Estelle P. Dauchy; Christopher Balding
  3. Successful Fiscal Adjustments: Does choice of fiscal instrument matter? By Holden, Steinar; Larsson Midthjell, Nina
  4. Distributional Implications of Tax Evasion and the Crisis in Greece By Matsaganis, Manos; Leventi, Chrysa; Flevotomou, Maria
  5. May austerity be counterproductive? By Pablo García Sánchez; Miguel Sebastián
  6. What Gets Measured Gets Managed: The Economic Burden of Business Property Taxes By Benjaming Dachis; Adam Found; Peter Tomlinson
  7. Voter Turnout and the Size of Government By Aggeborn, Linuz
  8. Profit shifting and 'aggressive' tax planning by multinational firms: Issues and options for reform By Fuest, Clemens; Spengel, Christoph; Finke, Katharina; Heckemeyer, Jost H.; Nusser, Hannah
  9. Public Education Spending, Sectoral Taxation and Growth By Marion Davin
  10. Emission Taxes and Border Tax Adjustments for Oligopolistic Industries By Timothy Halliday; Sumner La Croix
  11. Taxation and corporate debt: are banks any different? By Jost Heckemeyer; Ruud de Mooij
  12. Investor Valuations of Japan's Adoption of a Territorial Tax Regime: Quantifying the Direct and Competitive Effects of International Tax Reform By Estelle P. Dauchy; Sebastien Bradley; Makoto Hasegawa
  13. Learning about fiscal policy and the effects of policy uncertainty By Josef Hollmayr; Christian Matthes
  14. Informal taxation systems – Zakat and Ushr in Pakistan as example for the relevance of parallel/semi-public dues By Lorenz, Christian
  15. Do transfer pricing laws limit international income shifting? Evidence from European multinationals By Theresa Lohse; Nadine Riedel
  16. Effects of fiscal consolidation envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes on public debt dynamics in EU Member States By Katia Berti; Francisco de Castro; Matteo Salto
  17. Did cuts in state aid during the Great Recession lead to changes in local property taxes? By Rajashri Chakrabarti; Max Livingston; Joydeep Roy
  18. Heterogeneity in labor supply elasticity and optimal taxation By Marios Karabarbounis
  19. Reexamination of the Productivity of Public Capital (Japanese) By MIYAGAWA Tsutomu; KAWASAKI Kazuyasu; EAMURA Kazuma
  20. Religious origins of democracies and dictatorships By Grigoriadis, Theocharis
  21. Fiscal consolidations and spillovers in the Euro area periphery and core By Jan in 't Veld
  22. Optimal fiscal policy with recursive preferences By Anastasios G. Karantounias
  23. Realistic neoclassical multiplier By Jose-Victor Rios-Rull; Zhen Huo

  1. By: Bethencourt, Carlos; Kunze, Lars
    Abstract: A benchmark result in the political economy of taxation is that the degree of redistribution is positively linked to income inequality. However, empirical evidence supporting such a relationship turns out to be mixed. This paper shows how these different empirical reactions can be rationalized within a simple model of tax avoidance and costly tax enforcement. By focussing on structure induced equilibria in which taxpayers vote over the size of the income tax and the level of tax enforcement, we show that higher inequality may well decrease the extent of redistribution, depending on two opposing effects: the standard political effect and a negative tax base effect working through increases in the average level of tax avoidance and the share of enforcement expenditures in total tax revenue.
    Keywords: Tax avoidance, Voting, Redistribution
    JEL: D72 H26 H31
    Date: 2013–10–31
  2. By: Estelle P. Dauchy (New Economic School); Christopher Balding (Peking University HSBC Business School)
    Abstract: Over the past two decades, the United States federal income tax revenue has shown periods of increased volatility. Throughout the 1990s the growth rate of individual income taxes was between 5 and 10 percent, it has swung between H12 and +12 percent from 2000 to 2006. Meanwhile wage income has been relatively stable during this period while capital income annual growth has swung from H20 to +50 percent between 2000 and 2006. Looking deeper into the income composition of taxable sources, we find that tax revenue has increased its dependence on volatile capital gains income, due in part to an increasing dependence on highHincome taxpayers. In the decade ending 1976, capital and business income represented about 17.1 percent of gross income, including about 3.1 percent for capital gains and losses. While the share of capital and business incomes have been relatively stable over time, the share of net capital gains or losses has increased to about 5.8 percent of gross income, on average the decade ending 2006, an almost twofold compared to four decades ago. Using a database on individual tax files from 1966 to 2006 from the Internal Revenue Service Public Use Files, we estimate the sources of tax revenue volatility over time and by income groups. We find strong evidence that since 1966, the growth rate of tax revenue has become increasingly dependent on the growth rate of capital income, while its dependence on wage income has decreased. Before 1986, both capital income growth and wage income growth were negatively related with income tax growth, suggesting a smoothing effect of taxation. However, after 1986, capital income growth has been positively related to income tax revenue growth, and this positive relationship has increased more than tenfold in 20 years. We also find that this increased dependence of tax revenue growth on capital income is essentially related to top income earners. The results show evidence that capital income growth and tax revenue growth almost continuously increased from the bottom to the top quintile.
    Keywords: Tax, Tax Volatility, Public Revenue, Income Sources, Tax Policy, Inequality, Wage Income, Capital Markets, Built-in Flexibility
    JEL: H2 H21 H24
    Date: 2013–02
  3. By: Holden, Steinar (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo); Larsson Midthjell, Nina (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: We examine fiscal adjustment episodes in 24 OECD countries in order to find how austerity affects debt and growth, and whether the choice of fiscal instrument matters for the results. Inuential existing studies argue that spending cuts are more likely to successfully reduce debt and enhance economic growth than tax increases. Our main innovations over these studies are to better account for initial conditions and to employ a novel and more precise measure of actual changes in fiscal policy. We find that whether a fiscal adjustment is successful in reducing debt depends on whether the adjustment was sufficiently large to remove the budget deficit. We find no indication that it matters whether the adjustment is achieved via spending cuts or tax increases, and this conclusion holds also for the effect on economic growth.
    Keywords: fiscal; policy
    JEL: H20 H30 H50 H62
    Date: 2013–11–04
  4. By: Matsaganis, Manos; Leventi, Chrysa; Flevotomou, Maria
    Abstract: The current Greek crisis and the governments fiscal consolidation effort have elevated tax evasion to one of the most crucial policy issues in the domestic debate. The paper attempts to shed light on one aspect of the phenomenon, namely its distributional implications. We compare a large panel data sample of personal income tax returns in 2006-2010 (incomes earned in 2005-2009) with data from the European Union Survey of Income and Living Conditions of the same years. We show that the deviation of incomes between the two data sources is greater in the case of farming and self-employment income. Based on these findings we then calculate stylised factors of income under-reporting by income source. These factors are fed into a tax-benefit microsimulation model to provide tentative estimates of the size and distribution of income tax evasion in Greece in 2009. We estimate income under-reporting at 12.2%, resulting in a shortfall in personal income tax receipts of 29.7%. The paper shows that the effects of tax evasion in Greece are higher income inequality and much lower progressivity of the income tax system.
    Date: 2013–11–07
  5. By: Pablo García Sánchez; Miguel Sebastián (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact that fiscal policy has on economic activity and sovereign debt during economic downturns in the euro area, mainly Germany and Spain. Our theoretical and empirical framework shows that the macroeconomic returns of austerity crucially depend on the values of fiscal multipliers. We find that, for the Spanish economy, even if policy makers just focus on the public debt ratio, ignoring output and unemployment, policies of deficit reduction may be self-defeating, especially if carried on via tax increases. In fact, counter cyclical policies beat deficit consolidation policies in stabilizing the sovereign debt ratio, no matter if shocks are on aggregate supply or aggregate demand. By contrast, in the German case, we cannot reject the hypothesis that austerity works, even under a sluggish economy.
    Keywords: Sovereign Debt, Fiscal Policy, Fiscal Multipliers
    JEL: E62 H30 H63
    Date: 2013–10
  6. By: Benjaming Dachis (C.D. Howe Institute); Adam Found (University of Toronto); Peter Tomlinson (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: Business property taxes are a major part of the tax burden on new business investment that can tip the balance in the competition for capital among Canadian cities and provinces, according to a report released today by the C.D. Howe Institute. In “What Gets Measured Gets Managed: The Economic Burden of Business Property Taxes,” authors Adam Found, Benjamin Dachis, and Peter Tomlinson conduct groundbreaking research into the impact of business property taxes (BPTs) in localities across Canada and show where they are highest and lowest.
    Keywords: Fiscal and Tax Competitiveness
    JEL: H25 H71
    Date: 2013–10
  7. By: Aggeborn, Linuz (Uppsala Center for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the causal link between voter turnout and policy outcomes related to the size of government. Tax rate and public expenditures are the focal policy outcomes in this study. To capture the causal mechanism, Swedish and Finnish municipal data are used and a constitutional change in Sweden in 1970 is applied as an instrument for voter turnout in local elections. In 1970, Sweden moved from having separate election days for different levels of government,among other things, to a system with a single election day for political elections, thus reducing the cost associated with voting. This constitutional reform increased voter turnout in local elections in Sweden. The overall conclusion of this paper is that higher voter turnout yields higher municipal taxes and larger local public expenditures. Second,there is some evidence that higher turnout decreases the vote share for right-wing parties.
    Keywords: Voter Turnout; Size of government; Sweden; Finland; Local public finance; Instrumental variable regression
    JEL: D70 D72 H39
    Date: 2013–11–04
  8. By: Fuest, Clemens; Spengel, Christoph; Finke, Katharina; Heckemeyer, Jost H.; Nusser, Hannah
    Abstract: This paper discusses the issue of profit shifting and 'aggressive' tax planning by multinational firms. The paper makes two contributions. First, it provides some background information to the debate by giving a brief overview of existing empirical studies on profit shifting and by describing arrangements for IP-based profit shifting which are used by the companies currently accused of avoiding taxes. We then show that preventing this type of tax avoidance is, in principle, straightforward. Second, we argue that, in the short term, policy makers should focus on extending withholding taxes in an internationally coordinated way. Other measures which are currently being discussed, in particular unilateral measures, like limitations on interest and license deduction, fundamental reforms of the international tax system and country-by-country reporting, are either economically harmful or need to be elaborated much further before their introduction can be considered. --
    Keywords: tax avoidance,profit shifting,multinational firms,intellectual property,tax policy,tax reform
    JEL: H20 H25 F23 K34
    Date: 2013
  9. By: Marion Davin (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM))
    Abstract: This paper examines the interplay between public education expenditure and economic growth in a two-sector model. We reveal that agents' preferences for services, education and savings play a major role in the relationship between growth and public education expenditures, as long as production is taxed at a different rate in each sector.
    Keywords: public education; two-sector model; sectoral taxes; endogenous growth
    Date: 2013–10
  10. By: Timothy Halliday (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Sumner La Croix (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: We examine the welfare consequence of emissions tax with and without a Border Tax Adjustment for an imperfectly competitive industry, where intra-industry trade arises between countries. BTA allows a government to impose a pollution-content tariff on imports and refund an emission tax for export sales. We analyze the structure of an optimal emission tax with BTA when a government chooses its emission tax rate to maximize its national welfare. We show that the optimal emission tax policy with BTA achieves greater national welfare and higher environmental quality than the optimal policy without BTA.
    Keywords: trade and environment, border tax adjustment, intra-industry trade
    JEL: F18 F12 Q56
    Date: 2013–09
  11. By: Jost Heckemeyer (University of Mannheim); Ruud de Mooij (International Monetary Fund (IMF))
    Abstract: This paper explores whether corporate tax bias toward debt finance differs between banks and nonbanks,using a large panel of micro data. On average, it finds that there is no significant difference. The marginal tax effect for both banks and non-banks is close to 0.2. However, the responsiveness differs considerably across the size distribution and the conditional leverage distribution. For nonbanks,we find a U-shaped relationship between asset size and tax responsiveness, although this pattern does not hold universally across the conditional leverage distribution. For banks, in contrast,the tax responsiveness declines linearly in asset size. Quantile regressions show further that capitaltight banks are significantly less responsive than are capital-abundant banks; the same pattern holdsfor the largest non-banks. Still, even the largest banks with high conditional leverage ratios feature a significant, positive tax response.
    Keywords: Corporate tax; debt bias; leverage; banks; non-financial firms; quantile regressions
    JEL: G21 G32 H25
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Estelle P. Dauchy (New Economic School); Sebastien Bradley (Department of Economics, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University); Makoto Hasegawa (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)
    Abstract: Globalization of firm operations has brought the issue of multinational taxation to the forefront of tax reform debates worldwide, with countries paying increasingly close attention to tax developments elsewhere around the world. Using an event study methodology that emphasizes specific firm attributes, we examine investor reactions in both the Japanese and U.S. stock markets to nine events leading up to the enactment of the 2009 Japanese dividend exemption in order to measure the perceived gains in short- and long-term after-tax profitability resulting from this reform. We thus aim to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the full range of direct tax savings effects and indirect effects associated with changes in firm competitiveness and international tax competition. Preliminary results suggest that investors capitalized gains of over 1 percent and 0.3 percent on the date that the bill was finally passed in the Japanese and U.S. markets, respectively, with further pronounced gains arising in the aftermath of select earlier events associated with the revelation of significant new information. Direct tax savings are responsible for a significant proportion of estimated abnormal returns across multiple event dates, even for U.S. Firms where these effects are necessarily largely in anticipation of the adoption of a similar territorial regime. Strikingly, the largest beneficiaries of the Japanese reform appear to be firms with less elaborate tax minimization strategies or with no foreign operations altogether, whereas U.S. multinationals with subsidiaries located in tax havens appear more heavily favored.
    Date: 2013–08
  13. By: Josef Hollmayr; Christian Matthes
    Abstract: The recent crisis in the United States has often been associated with substantial amounts of policy uncertainty. In this paper we ask how uncertainty about fiscal policy affects the impact of fiscal policy changes on the economy when the government tries to counteract a deep recession. The agents in our model act as econometricians by estimating the policy rules for the different fiscal policy instruments, which include distortionary tax rates. ; Comparing the outcomes in our model to those under full-information rational expectations, we find that assuming the agents are not instantaneously aware of the new fiscal policy regime (or policy rule) in place leads to substantially more volatility in the short run and persistent differences in average outcomes
    Date: 2013
  14. By: Lorenz, Christian
    Abstract: This article provides an overview of the religious background of Zakat and the organisation of the Zakat collection in several Islamic countries. Then the mandatory system in Pakistan of Zakat and Ushr is described in more detail. Zakat and Ushr are spent mainly on much targeted areas like social welfare, education and health care for certain population groups. Other types of public goods and services are not covered with funds received from Zakat. Hence, the question arises, whether an Islamic state is according to the Islamic laws entitled to collect additional revenues like taxes in addition to Zakat. A second question is answered in the text, in how far an engagement of religious leaders in tax reform activities is in line with the Islamic law and can contribute to development activities. Taking into account the cultural and religious factors and actors, the involvement of Mullahs or Friday prayers to promote tax morale requires the support of religious scholars, but might have broader impacts even than governmental activities on the public awareness. To answer both questions it is important that - according to important religious scholars - the Islamic state requires additional revenues to cover all necessary demands of its population. One permitted option to collect additional revenues is taxation. Finally the different types of individual giving increase the total amount paid to formal and informal taxation systems in Pakistan by about 1%. Nevertheless, formally the tax to GDP ratio does not change, because Zakat is statistically classified as social assistance benefits, which do not become part of the tax to GDP indicator.
    Keywords: Informal taxation system, Islamic taxation, Zakat, Ushr, tax to GDP ratio, Pakistan
    JEL: H22 H27
    Date: 2013
  15. By: Theresa Lohse (University of Mannheim); Nadine Riedel (University of Hohenheim, CESifo Munich & Oxford University CBT)
    Abstract: In recent years several countries have augmented their national tax laws by transfer pricing legislations which intend to limit the leeway of multinational firms to exploit international corporate tax rate diverences and relocate profit to low-tax affiliates by distorting intra-firm transfer prices. The aim of this paper is to empirically investigate whether these laws are instrumental in restricting shifting behaviour. To do so, we exploit unique information on the scope and evolution of national transfer pricing laws and link it with panel data on European multinationals. In line with previous studies, we find evidence for tax-motivated profit shifting. The analysis further suggests that transfer pricing rules significantly reduce shifting activities. The effect is economically relevant, suggesting that the legislations may be socially desirable despite the high administrative burden they impose on firms and tax authorities.
    Keywords: corporate taxation, international prot shifting, transfer pricing laws
    JEL: H25 F23
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Katia Berti; Francisco de Castro; Matteo Salto
    Abstract: This paper presents a simple analysis of the public debt-to-GDP ratio responses to fiscal consolidation efforts envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes presented by EU Member States. In this paper we assess the response of the debt-to-GDP ratio to the fiscal consolidation efforts envisaged in the 2013 Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs) presented by EU Member States, under different assumptions on the underlying fiscal multipliers. The effects of fiscal consolidation are assessed against a counterfactual no-consolidation scenario, in which the structural primary balance is kept constant at 2012 value. We show that large fiscal multipliers lead to temporary increases in the debt ratio following consolidation, relative to the no-consolidation baseline. However, for high but plausible values of the multipliers, such counter-intuitive effects are relatively short-lived (maximum three years from the beginning of the consolidation programme). Increases in the debt ratio are anyway more protracted if financial markets react myopically to consolidation efforts (demanding higher yields). Despite the possible negative short-term effects, consolidation is needed as the debt dynamic in absence of policy intervention is in many cases quite steep and further debt increases would raise the likelihood of a self-defeating dynamics in the future. Based on our simple analytical framework, short-term increases in the debt ratio (relative to baseline) following consolidation could take place for a group of countries expected to experience high fiscal multipliers, including Belgium, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Slovenia and Spain.
    JEL: E62 H63
    Date: 2013–09
  17. By: Rajashri Chakrabarti; Max Livingston; Joydeep Roy
    Abstract: During the Great Recession and its aftermath, state and local governments’ revenue streams dried up due to diminished taxes. Budget cuts affected many aspects of government; in this paper, we investigate whether (and how) local school districts modified their funding and taxing decisions in response to changes in state aid in the post-recession period. Using detailed district-level panel data from New York and a fixed effects as well as an instrumental variables strategy, we find strong evidence that school districts did indeed respond to state aid cuts in the post-recession period by countering the cuts. In comparison with the pre-recession period, a unit decrease in state aid was associated with a relative increase in local funding per pupil. To further probe the school district role, we explore whether the property tax rate, which districts set each year in response to budgetary needs, also responded to state aid cuts. Indeed, we find that relative to the pre-recession period, the post-recession period was characterized by a strong negative relationship between the property tax rate and state aid per pupil. In other words, after the recession a unit decrease in state aid was associated with a relative increase in the property tax rate in the post-recession period (in comparison with the pre-recession period).
    Keywords: Education - Economic aspects ; Taxation ; Local finance ; Real property and taxation ; Recessions
    Date: 2013
  18. By: Marios Karabarbounis
    Abstract: Standard public finance principles imply that workers with more elastic labor supply should face smaller tax distortions. This paper quantitatively tests the potential of such an idea within a life-cycle model with heterogeneous two-member households. I find that younger and older-wealthier households have a larger labor supply elasticity than middle-aged households. The same is true for household members who are not the sole financial provider in the unit relative to primary breadwinners. To decrease inefficient distortions I study a tax system that uses information on the age, assets, and number of working members inside the household. The optimal tax code decreases tax rates on 1) younger and older workers, 2) wealthier households that are closer to retirement, and 3) two-earner households. The tax system raises revenues by targeting middle-aged households with a single earner. As a result, total supply of labor increases by 3.18 percent and consumption by 4.47 percent, which translates into welfare gains of 0.91 percent in terms of annual consumption.
    Date: 2013
  19. By: MIYAGAWA Tsutomu; KAWASAKI Kazuyasu; EAMURA Kazuma
    Abstract: This paper reexamines the effects of public capital on productivity growth at the regional level by using the Regional-Level Japan Industrial Productivity Database (R-JIP). When we estimate a production function including public capital in total factor productivity (TFP), we find positive and significant effects of public capital on productivity growth after the collapse of the bubble economy. As total public expenditures have decreased since the mid 1990s, our results imply that public investment after 1991 was allocated more efficiently than prior to 1990. However, the dispersion of the estimated rate of return on public capital and its Tobin's Q have expanded since 1991. This implies that the government has allocated public capital to rural areas more heavily than to urban areas. We also examine the effects of public investment on business investment by using the Manufacturer's Survey and the R-JIP. The estimation results show the positive effect of public investment on business investment.
    Date: 2013–11
  20. By: Grigoriadis, Theocharis
    Abstract: In this paper, I argue that religion matters for the emergence of democracies and dictatorships. Religion is defined as a stochastically set demand for public goods. Different types of religious collectives reflect different tradeoffs between centralized resource distribution and market rewards. Religions are defined as collectivist, when their respective collectives facilitate the hierarchical provision of common pool resources toward their members at the expense of market incentives. Religions are defined as individualist, when their respective collectives recruit and preserve their members on the basis of market incentives. Islam, Orthodoxy and Catholicism are treated as collectivist religions, whereas Judaism and Protestantism as individualist ones. I provide a historical overview that designates the Jewish kibbutz as the collective of democracy and the Russian-Orthodox monastery as the collective of dictatorship. Assuming a collectivist economy, I solve the radical government and modernization stochastic games. I find that modernization occurs in a collectivist economy when the threat of a radical government is imminent and when the leader has high extraction rents over the economy. In order to stay in power, the leader credibly commits to provide more public goods in the future, and thus modernization occurs. Underdevelopment occurs at intermediate levels of state enforcement, modernization at low levels and centralization at high levels of state enforcement. The emergence of a radical government is more likely in a collectivist rather than in an individualist economy. --
    Keywords: democracy,dictatorship,collectivism,individualism,modernization,Orthodoxy,Judaism
    JEL: D72 D73 D78 P21 P26 P32 P51 Z12
    Date: 2013
  21. By: Jan in 't Veld
    Abstract: A model-based assessment of the macro-economic impact of consolidations and their spillovers in the euro area in 2011-13. This paper uses a structural multi-country model to assess the impact of fiscal consolidation measures undertaken in 2011-13 in the EA periphery and core. The simulations assume 'crisis' conditions prevailing (high share of constrained households, ZLB). The GDP effects depend crucially on the composition of the consolidation and on how quickly expectations are affected. Expenditure-based consolidations have larger impact multipliers than revenue-based consolidations. Average multipliers for domestic fiscal shocks range from 0.5 and 1, depending on the degree of openness. But spillovers of fiscal consolidations are large, with both the demand channel and the competitiveness channel adding to the negative GDP effects. Higher risk premia add further to the negative GDP effects. Spillovers from consolidations in Germany and core EA have worsened the overall economic situation. A temporary fiscal stimulus in surplus countries can boost output and help reduce their current account surpluses. The improvement in current account deficits in the periphery is however small.
    Date: 2013–10
  22. By: Anastasios G. Karantounias
    Abstract: I study optimal capital and labor income taxation in a business cycle model with the recursive preferences of Epstein and Zin (1989) and Weil (1990). In contrast to the case of time-additive expected utility, I find that it is no longer optimal to make the welfare cost of distortionary taxes constant over states and dates. This dramatically alters standard taxation prescriptions: optimal policy calls for taxation at the intertemporal margin, variation of taxation at the intratemporal margin, and persistence of labor taxes independent of the stochastic properties of exogenous shocks. Ignoring the distinction between smoothing over time and smoothing over states is not an innocuous assumption for optimal policy.
    Date: 2013
  23. By: Jose-Victor Rios-Rull; Zhen Huo
    Abstract: Standard neoclassical models are unable to generate large values for the fiscal multiplier, the aggregate economic response to increased government spending. Empirical estimates place the multiplier between 0.7 and 1.0. Standard models deliver figures close to zero. In an earlier policy paper, we modified the standard model, with features of demand-based productivity. These modifications raised the figure to just 0.17, still very far from the range found in the empirical literature.
    Date: 2013

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