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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | Accelerating digital finance transformation initiatives across African countries is essential to develop the African continent. Using the conceptual discourse method and the global findex data, this article explores the on-going digital finance transformation in Africa, the benefits for digital financial inclusion in Africa as well as the challenges that lie ahead. The article emphasises the importance of the digital finance transformation in Africa and urges for coordination with stakeholders to accelerate the use of digital financial services in African countries. It also emphasises the need to balance digital finance transformation initiatives with the risks. This study contributes to ongoing discussions about the role of digital finance in transforming nations. |
| Keywords: | digital finance, financial inclusion, Africa, open banking, digital financial inclusion, fintech, digital public infrastructure, DPI, mobile money, financial literacy, MPesa, eNaira, flutterwave |
| JEL: | G21 G23 O3 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128972 |
| By: | Carlosama Morejón, Pablo Andrés |
| Abstract: | This thesis analyzes the possibility of creating a national public blockchain as a tool to regain degrees of economic sovereignty in dollarized Ecuador. While dollarization brought stability after the inflationary storm of the 1990s, it generated fiscal rigidity, dependence on remittances, exposure to external shocks, and a financial system that barely addresses the inclusion needs of popular sectors. The research proposes a sovereign digital infrastructure enabling payments, secure information storage, document management, token issuance, and even online elections with full cryptographic security. Based on international experiences (Sand Dollar, eNaira, Drex) and Ecuador's failed electronic money experiment (2014-2018), the thesis designs a technical architecture called "EC-Soberano Ledger" with BFT-PoS consensus, distributed governance, self-sovereign identity (SSI), and ISO 20022 interoperability. The proposal includes a regulatory framework with reforms to the Monetary Code and the creation of a National Digital Infrastructure Authority (ANID). The conclusions suggest that Ecuador faces a historic window of opportunity to combine clear laws, massive digital literacy, progressive pilots, and shared governance to build a digital fabric that restores maneuverability within dollarization. |
| Keywords: | Dollarization; Economic sovereignty; Public blockchain; Financial inclusion; Digital currency; Ecuador; CBDC; Monetary policy; Distributed ledger technology |
| JEL: | E42 E58 F36 G28 O17 O33 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128686 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This article explores financial inclusion and the increase in formal account inactivity. It examines the formal account inactivity problem, how it delays the benefits of financial inclusion, the risks posed by formal account inactivity and solutions to reduce formal account inactivity. It was argued that countries with a high level of financial inclusion, in terms of formal account ownership, will reap the benefits that accompany financial inclusion which includes poverty reduction, stimulating entrepreneurship, increased financial security, reduced economic inequality, improved wellbeing and increased economic growth. However, these benefits may not be realized if there is an increasing number of inactive formal accounts. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, inactive formal accounts, account inactivity, digital financial inclusion, mobile money account, bank account, risk, dormant account |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128973 |
| By: | Elizabeth C. Klee; Arazi Lubis; Chase Ross; Sharon Y. Ross; Alexandros Vardoulakis |
| Abstract: | Digital money differs from previous forms of money in an important way: it unbundles trust. Instead of relying on a trustworthy institution to settle payments, it relies on decentralized verification, whose cost is priced separately through congestion-sensitive gas fees. This arrangement creates a novel fragility from the interaction of two opposing forces: network externalities, which make digital money more valuable as adoption rises, and congestion fees, which make it more costly to use. We show that these forces generate strategic complementarities in redemption decisions and can create runs even when digital money is backed by perfectly safe reserves. |
| Keywords: | payment systems; digital currencies; cryptocurrencies; game theory; bank runs |
| JEL: | C72 E42 E44 G01 G23 |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:103381 |
| By: | Stefan Scharnowski (University of Mannheim); Yanghua Shi (International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Miners of proof-of-work networks like Bitcoin tend to gravitate towards countries with cheap energy. We analyze risks associated with this geographical centralization by exploiting a local electricity supply shock. Compared to a control group consisting of an energy-efficient proof-of-stake cryptocurrency, the blockchain fs capacity for transactions decreases while transaction fees widen substantially. The increased settlement latency on the blockchain also reduces secondary market quality as seen in higher exchange rate volatility, lower liquidity, and larger price differences between exchanges. Overall, our results suggest that geographical centralization poses short-lived, but potentially severe system-wide risks to proof-of-work networks. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, blockchain, proof-of-work, proof-of-stake, mining, centralization |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G14 G15 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2026_08 |
| By: | DIAKITE, Nanamoudou; DIALLO, Ibrahima; SENE, Omar; SENE, Babacar |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether mobile money reduces gender gaps in financial autonomy across six Sahelian countries using Afrobarometer Round 9 data (2021-2023, N=6, 540). Instrumenting adoption with distance to traditional financial services, we find pronounced heterogeneity: mobile money increases women's autonomy by 11 percentage points in Senegal (26% gap reduction) and 16 points in Sudan (38% reduction), with no detectable effects in four other countries. This variation correlates with ecosystem maturity, agent density, and regulatory quality. Mechanisms include transactional discretion, informal credit access, and enhanced security. Transformative impacts require 10-14 years ecosystem maturation and agent density above 1 per 2, 000 inhabitants. Digital finance advances women's empowerment only under specific institutional conditions. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money; Gender; Financial inclusion; Instrumental variables; Sub-Saharan Africa; Sahel; Women empowerment; Heterogeneous effects |
| JEL: | G21 J16 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129244 |
| By: | Saou Badr-Eddine (University Ibn Toufail = Université Ibn-Tufayl = جامعة ابن طفيل) |
| Abstract: | Zusammenfassung Der rasante Aufstieg der Kryptowährungen seit 2008 hat das globale Finanzsystem tiefgreifend verändert. Angetrieben durch die Blockchain-Technologie haben Kryptowährungen zunehmendes Interesse bei Investoren, Finanzinstituten und Regulierungsbehörden geweckt. Diese Entwicklung geht jedoch mit einer hohen Volatilität und einer wachsenden Verflechtung mit den traditionellen Finanzmärkten einher, insbesondere in Zeiten wirtschaftlicher Krisen, was Bedenken hinsichtlich der Finanzstabilität hervorruft. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht die vorliegende Studie die Auswirkungen von Krypto-Assets, insbesondere Bitcoin und Ethereum, auf die Dynamik des Finanzsystems, ihren Integrationsgrad in traditionelle Märkte sowie die Wirksamkeit bestehender Regulierungsrahmen. Aus empirischer Sicht wird ein Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR)-Modell eingesetzt, um die dynamischen Interaktionen und Volatilitätsübertragungseffekte (Volatility Spillovers) zwischen Kryptowährungen und anderen Finanzanlagen zu analysieren. Dadurch werden die Mechanismen identifiziert, über die sich Schocks ausbreiten, sowie deren potenzieller Beitrag zum systemischen Risiko untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Krypto-Assets trotz ihres Innovationspotenzials weiterhin durch eine hohe Volatilität, zeitlich variable Verbindungen zu traditionellen Finanzmärkten und lediglich eine teilweise Integration in das Finanzsystem gekennzeichnet sind. Diese Erkenntnisse verdeutlichen die Notwendigkeit, die regulatorischen Rahmenbedingungen zu stärken, um die Finanzstabilität zu gewährleisten und gleichzeitig die Entwicklung finanzieller Innovationen zu fördern. Schlüsselwörter Kryptowährungen; Bitcoin; Stablecoins; Finanzstabilität; Finanzielle Ansteckungseffekte (Financial Spillovers); Blockchain. |
| Abstract: | Abstract The rapid rise of cryptocurrencies since 2008 has profoundly reshaped the global financial system, driven by blockchain technology and attracting growing interest from investors, financial institutions, and regulatory authorities. However, this expansion is accompanied by high volatility and increasing interconnections with traditional financial markets, particularly during periods of economic crisis, raising concerns about financial stability. In this context, the study examines the impact of crypto-assets, notably Bitcoin and Ethereum, on the dynamics of the financial system, their degree of integration with traditional markets, and the effectiveness of existing regulatory frameworks. Empirically, it employs a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to analyze the dynamic interactions and volatility Spillovers between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets, thereby identifying the mechanisms through which shocks propagate and their potential contribution to systemic risk. The results indicate that, despite their innovative potential, crypto-assets remain characterized by high volatility, time-varying linkages with traditional markets, and only partial integration into the financial system, thereby underscoring the need to strengthen regulatory frameworks in order to safeguard financial stability while supporting the development of financial innovation. Keywords — Cryptocurrencies; Bitcoin; Stablecoins; Financial Stability; Financial Spillovers; Blockchain. |
| Abstract: | Resumen El rápido auge de las criptomonedas desde 2008 ha transformado profundamente el sistema financiero mundial, impulsado por la tecnología blockchain y despertando un creciente interés por parte de inversores, instituciones financieras y autoridades reguladoras. Sin embargo, esta expansión va acompañada de una elevada volatilidad y de una creciente interconexión con los mercados financieros tradicionales, especialmente durante períodos de crisis económica, lo que genera preocupaciones en materia de estabilidad financiera. En este contexto, el presente estudio analiza el impacto de los criptoactivos, en particular Bitcoin y Ethereum, sobre la dinámica del sistema financiero, su grado de integración con los mercados tradicionales y la eficacia de los marcos regulatorios existentes. Desde una perspectiva empírica, se emplea un modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos con Parámetros Variables en el Tiempo (TVP-VAR) para examinar las interacciones dinámicas y los efectos de contagio de volatilidad (volatility spillovers) entre las criptomonedas y otros activos financieros, identificando así los mecanismos mediante los cuales se propagan los choques y su posible contribución al riesgo sistémico. Los resultados muestran que, a pesar de su potencial innovador, los criptoactivos continúan caracterizándose por una elevada volatilidad, vínculos variables en el tiempo con los mercados financieros tradicionales y una integración solo parcial en el sistema financiero. Estos hallazgos ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de reforzar los marcos regulatorios con el fin de preservar la estabilidad financiera y, al mismo tiempo, fomentar el desarrollo de la innovación financiera. Palabras clave Criptomonedas; Bitcoin; Stablecoins; Estabilidad financiera; Efectos de contagio financiero (Financial Spillovers); Blockchain. |
| Abstract: | Résumé L'essor des crypto-actifs depuis 2008 a profondément bouleversé le système financier mondial, en s'appuyant sur la technologie blockchain et en suscitant un intérêt croissant de la part des investisseurs, des institutions financières et des autorités de régulation. Néanmoins, cette expansion s'accompagne d'une forte volatilité et d'une interconnexion accrue avec les marchés financiers traditionnels, notamment dans les périodes de crise économique, ce qui soulève des préoccupations quant à la stabilité financière. Dans ce cadre, l'étude examine l'impact des crypto-actifs, notamment le Bitcoin et l'Ethereum, sur la dynamique du système financier, leur degré d'intégration avec les marchés traditionnels ainsi que l'efficacité des dispositifs réglementaires en vigueur. Sur le plan empirique, elle mobilise un modèle TVP-VAR afin d'analyser les interactions dynamiques et les transmissions de volatilité entre les crypto-actifs et les autres actifs financiers, permettant ainsi d'identifier les mécanismes de propagation des chocs et leur contribution potentielle au risque systémique. Les résultats indiquent que, malgré leur potentiel d'innovation, les crypto-actifs demeurent caractérisés par une volatilité élevée, des interactions variables avec les marchés traditionnels et une intégration encore partielle au système financier, ce qui confirme la nécessité de renforcer les cadres réglementaires afin de préserver la stabilité financière tout en accompagnant le développement de l'innovation. Mots-clés — Crypto-actifs ; Bitcoin ; Stablecoins ; Stabilité financière ; Spillovers financiers ; Blockchain. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin Stablecoins Financial Stability Financial Spillovers Blockchain, African Scientific Journal, Financial Spillovers, Financial Stability, Bitcoin, Cryptocurrencies, Transmission des chocs financiers, Crypto-actifs, Stablecoins, Stabilité financière, Blockchain, Technologie blockchain. La première version est la tra |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05641061 |
| By: | Anneke Kosse; Tara Rice; Fabian Schär; Takeshi Shirakami; Jirapat Siridhasanakul |
| Abstract: | Stablecoin transfers are often interpreted as payments. On programmable blockchains, however, they are frequently embedded in atomically executed transaction bundles that combine trading, lending, arbitrage, liquidity provision, and settlement. We show that ignoring this structure materially distorts the interpretation of stablecoin activity. Using 593 million event logs from 141 million Ethereum transactions involving three major U.S. dollar stablecoins, we develop a replicable framework to measure transaction complexity from archive node data, public contract labels, and event signatures. The analysis combines measures of token and contract co-usage, action type, computational complexity, urgency, and timing. Two results emerge. First, complexity is a first-order feature of stablecoin activity: nearly 60 percent of transfer events occur within complex transactions. Second, the three stable coins are not used interchangeably: their use differs systematically across transaction structures, urgency, and timing, consistent with distinct institutional designs and economic functions. Analyses that treat transfers as standalone payments therefore risk misclassifying a large share of on-chain stablecoin use, with implications for empirical measurement, market monitoring, and policy. |
| Keywords: | blockchain, payments, policy and regulation, stablecoins, transaction complexity |
| JEL: | E42 O33 G28 C81 G23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1359 |
| By: | Yoon Jae Ro (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | India is undergoing a major digital transformation through its government-backed Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), which has notably enhanced financial inclusion and made public services more accessible. Key innovations like digital IDs and mobile payment systems have helped millions. Yet, gaps in digital access persist, indicating the need for targeted efforts—especially in underserved areas. This opens up valuable opportunities for South Korea and India to collaborate, combining their strengths in technology to bridge these divides and support inclusive digital growth. |
| Keywords: | India; Digital Transformation; DPI |
| Date: | 2025–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022492 |
| By: | Giorgio Vella; Luca Pennella; Mark C. Ballandies |
| Abstract: | Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization has emerged as a prominent application of blockchain technology, enabling off-chain financial and non-financial assets to be represented through blockchain-based instruments. However, deployed RWA systems remain difficult to compare because legal claims, custody arrangements, token mechanics, verification processes, and on-chain integrations are often described separately. This paper develops a systems-level taxonomy of RWA tokenization to classify how off-chain assets are legally, economically, and technically represented on-chain. Following an iterative taxonomy-development method, we organize twenty-three dimensions into five components: governance, asset structure, token properties, distributed ledger technology, and economy. We apply the taxonomy to twenty major RWA systems selected by market capitalization and compare their design choices across asset classes and implementation models. The classification shows that current RWA tokenization is predominantly implemented through hybrid architectures: blockchain tokens support representation, transfer control, redemption workflows, pricing, and composability, while core legal guarantees remain anchored in off-chain legal wrappers, custodial arrangements, compliance processes, and verification mechanisms. The analysis also reveals recurring documentation gaps concerning voting rights, dispute forums, burn mechanics, supply constraints, and reserve verification. Overall, the taxonomy provides a structured basis for comparing RWA systems, identifying design patterns and limitations, and supporting future research on blockchain-based financial infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.08534 |
| By: | Karissa Moothoo Padayachie Nair (University of Johannesburg); Reena Das Nair (University of Johannesburg) |
| Abstract: | Kenya, often referred to as Africa’s “Silicon Savannah”, has rapidly evolved to become the regional digital business hub in East Africa. While Kenya’s approach to regulation has led to some market-driven competition, it faces similar competition-related challenges that many jurisdictions around the world face in the constantly evolving digital markets landscape. There have been competition concerns raised by entrepreneurs and businesses with respect to accessing markets and competing against the large domestic and global players that have already entered and taken up lead positions in Kenya’s digital ecosystem. This led to the Competition Authority of Kenya (CAK) introducing the Competition Amendment Bill in 2024 which is targeted at addressing platform dominance in digital ecosystems. South Africa adopted a different approach to regulating the digital economy using market inquiries as the primary tool to address potential harm to competition. The market inquiries highlighted concerns surrounding platform dominance and barriers to entry in e-commerce, amongst other concerns. |
| Keywords: | Digital platforms, Competition Policy, Digital Market regulation |
| JEL: | L41 K21 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:338 |
| By: | Arvind Ashta |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a transformative force in microfinance and financial inclusion, addressing long-standing barriers such as credit invisibility, high operational costs, and limited access to formal financial services. This paper systematically examines AI applications across key financial domains (payments, savings, lending, insurance, investments) highlighting how machine learning, natural language processing, and generative AI are enabling innovative solutions tailored to the needs of marginalized populations. Drawing on contemporary research and case studies from the Global South, the analysis demonstrates AI’s potential to democratize financial services through alternative credit scoring, automated underwriting, and adaptive tools. However, the deployment of AI also presents significant challenges, including algorithmic bias, proxy discrimination, privacy violations, and the risk of exacerbating digital divides. The paper underscores the need for robust governance frameworks, ethical oversight, and inclusive policies to mitigate these risks and ensure that AI-driven financial inclusion serves the most vulnerable without creating new forms of exclusion. Future directions include advancing fairness-aware AI, improving transparency, and fostering cross-sector collaboration to align technological innovation with social justice and human dignity. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence; Microfinance; Financial Inclusion; Machine Learning; Alternative Credit Scoring; Algorithmic Bias; Digital Divide; Ethical AI; Global South |
| JEL: | G21 G23 O16 O33 D81 I25 C45 C55 |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/408010 |
| By: | Kyoung-Kuk Kim; Donghwa Seo |
| Abstract: | We analyze intentional block delays (mining gaps) in Proof-of-Work blockchain systems, where miners strategically balance mining rewards against operational costs. Using a game-theoretic model, we derive a Nash equilibrium with optimal mining strategies and establish necessary and sufficient conditions for mining gap existence. We demonstrate that mining gaps, when combined with difficulty adjustment algorithms, can destabilize the system. We propose conditions to address sustainability concerns as block rewards decrease and reliance on transaction fees increases. Our findings are illustrated through a two-player game simulation and an analysis of the Bitcoin network, providing insights for blockchain design and policy. This work contributes to understanding strategic mining behavior and its impact on blockchain stability and efficiency. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.03153 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Young people today interact in a range of digital environments – from browsing the Internet and playing video games, to connecting with their peers on social media platforms. As social media has become central to how young people communicate and consume information, parents, educators and policymakers increasingly worry that social media use may contribute to lower academic performance and negatively affect well-being. This paper reviews the literature on the impacts of social media use on young people and then explores trends in how they use social media. It analyses the associations between social media use and academic outcomes and skills, focusing on creative thinking. Finally, the paper discusses how policy can support young people in making the most of social media’s many opportunities, while protecting them against related risks in ways that safeguard freedom of expression, privacy, innovation and fair competition. |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:385-en |
| By: | Carlos Baquero |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin price prediction has attracted hundreds of academic papers and continuous social media debate, yet the field lacks consensus on even basic questions: can any model beat a naive "today's price" baseline at horizons of one to six months? We survey the peer-reviewed landscape, categorize papers by evaluation methodology, and contrast academic findings with informal but substantive discourse on X/Twitter. The picture that emerges is sobering. At short-to-medium horizons, no peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes. Daily predictability is real but does not extend to hourly or monthly horizons, and may not survive transaction costs. The stock-to-flow model has failed formal out-of-sample testing, and Metcalfe's Law valuations have been challenged as spurious. The Bitcoin price power law, while empirically compelling, has not been subjected to formal distributional tests. Meanwhile, social media practitioners raise valid statistical critiques -- ordinary least squares (OLS) violations, backtest overfitting, spurious regressions -- that the academic literature has not formalized. We identify open research directions and propose concrete methodological standards for future work -- walk-forward evaluation, multi-regime holdout windows, naive baseline comparison, inclusion of zero in hyperparameter grids, and Diebold-Mariano significance testing -- arguing that the field's primary need is not more models but better evaluation. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.00071 |
| By: | Andrei Bysik; Robert \'Slepaczuk |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether machine learning forecasts of hourly BTC-USDT returns can be converted into economically meaningful trading performance after transaction costs. Using approximately 70, 000 hourly observations from 2018-2026, XGBoost, LSTM, and iTransformer are evaluated in a 27-fold walk-forward protocol. All three models produce positive gross trading performance in selected configurations, but naive sign-based strategies fail once transaction costs of ten basis points are imposed. A cost-aware execution filter, which prevents trades only when the forecast magnitude exceeds a transaction-cost-based threshold, sharply reduces turnover and restores profitability in selected configurations. The strongest long-only XGBoost strategy produces annualised returns above 65% with a Sharpe ratio above one. Additional tests show that technical indicators improve performance in selected cases, EGARCH-derived features do not provide uniformly robust gains, and XGBoost is descriptively stronger than the neural alternatives, although bootstrap evidence does not support formal statistical dominance. Loss-function and model-selection effects are secondary and statistically fragile. The results show that the main obstacle in hourly cryptocurrency trading is not only weak predictability, but also the way forecasts are converted into trades. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.00060 |
| By: | Damian Lebied\'z; Robert \'Slepaczuk |
| Abstract: | This study aims to determine whether the application of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) as a specialized execution overlay can enhance pair trading in highly volatile cryptocurrency markets. Although classical implementations of the strategy have proven successful in traditional equities, they frequently exhibit rigidity and suffer from severe divergence risks when applied to high-variance environments. To address this need, this research introduces novel concepts. To construct a robust system, we developed a hierarchical "Filter-then-Rank" pair selection methodology and a proprietary "Fixed Risk, Adaptive Mean" execution model. The system employs a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent with a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layer to govern execution decisions within strict deterministic risk management boundaries. Evaluated on 1-hour interval data from the Binance USD-M Futures market, the optimized RL policy achieved an out-of-sample performance that substantially outperformed the heuristic baseline. A stationary circular block bootstrap robustness check confirms that the agent's risk-adjusted outperformance is statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Although falling marginally short of the stricter 5 percent threshold, this result highlights the extreme idiosyncratic variance characteristic of digital assets. Ultimately, this thesis contributes to the quantitative finance literature by introducing a hybrid architecture that combines statistical arbitrage with DRL execution policies. Furthermore, it delivers a novel framework for safe reinforcement learning via deterministic shielding, proving that anchoring a neural policy to statistically robust boundaries successfully mitigates severe divergence risks. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.04574 |
| By: | Chang-Koo Chi (Yonsei University); Jay Pil Choi (Michigan State University); Jong-Hee Hahn (Yonsei University); Seongkyun Kim (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies self-preferencing incentives by vertically integrated platforms that operate both marketplaces and affiliated retail businesses. We show that self-preferencing and transaction fees are substitute instruments for profit extraction, implying that restrictions on self-preferencing may induce offsetting increases in transaction fees and thereby generate unintended consequences for consumer welfare. We characterize the platform’s optimal choice of self-preferencing and transaction fees and evaluate the welfare effects of behavioral and structural remedies. We also extend the analysis to settings with platform competition and consumer search, examining how market forces shape self-preferencing incentives and evaluating the robustness of our main results. |
| Keywords: | self-preferencing, vertically integrated platforms, transaction fees, regulation, hierarchical Hotelling model, search |
| JEL: | L2 L5 D2 D8 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2026rwp-294 |
| By: | Asmae Idali (Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable (INREDD) - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]); Zakaria Fakhri (Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable (INREDD) - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]); Jamal Rafia (Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable (INREDD) - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]); Mustapha Ziky (INREDD - Innovation, Responsabilités et Développement Durable - UCA - Université Cadi Ayyad = Cadi Ayyad University [Marrakech]) |
| Abstract: | This article empirically examines the relationship between the digitalization of financial practices and tax revenues in Morocco. Financial inclusion is analyzed through its operational dimension, with a focus on the digitalization of banking services, particularly digital payments. This focus is justified by the growing role of these instruments in ensuring the traceability of economic transactions, which facilitates a more accurate identification of tax bases. The Moroccan context provides a relevant framework for assessing how financial technology reforms directly affect state revenue collection mechanisms. Methodologically, using quarterly data from 2011 (Q1) to 2024-Q4), the analysis employs the robust Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, carefully selected for its capacity to simultaneously examine long-run cointegration relationships and short-run adjustment mechanisms among the studied variables. In terms of findings, the retained model reveals a long-run cointegration relationship between the digitalization of financial practices, real GDP, and tax revenues, confirming that the expansion of digital payments contributes positively to public resource mobilization. The error correction mechanism indicates a rapid adjustment process with 70.66% of short-term deviations are absorbed each quarter. This adjustment speed suggest that the financial digitalization constitutes a structural driver of fiscal performance, extending beyond its role in social inclusion, emerging as a structural lever for sustained budgetary performance. This study contributes to the empirical literature and provides policymakers with actionable insights to design coordinated fiscal implications of financial technology. Such recommendations emphasize the need for institutional coordination to maximize fiscal gains from technological adoption and enhance overall tax system efficiency |
| Abstract: | Résumé Le présent article analyse empiriquement la relation entre la digitalisation des usages financiers et les recettes fiscales au Maroc. L'inclusion financière y est appréhendée à travers sa dimension opérationnelle, centrée sur la digitalisation des services bancaires et notamment les paiements digitaux. Cette focalisation se justifie par le rôle croissant de ces instruments dans la traçabilité des transactions économiques, laquelle favorise une meilleure identification des assiettes fiscales. Sur le plan méthodologique, l'estimation repose sur le modèle autorégressif à retard échelonné (ARDL), choisi pour sa capacité à examiner simultanément les relations de cointégration à long terme et les mécanismes d'ajustement de court terme entre les variables étudiées sur la période 2011(T1) – 2024(T4). En termes de résultats, le modèle retenu dans cette étude met en évidence une relation de long terme entre la digitalisation des usages financiers, le PIB réel et les recettes fiscales, confirmant que le développement des paiements digitaux contribue positivement à la mobilisation des ressources publiques. L'analyse dynamique révèle une correction rapide des déséquilibres : 70, 66 % des écarts de court terme sont résorbés à chaque trimestre. Cette vitesse d'ajustement démontre que la digitalisation des services bancaires ne relève pas uniquement d'une logique d'inclusion sociale, mais s'impose comme un levier structurel de performance budgétaire. En explicitant ces canaux de transmission, cette étude enrichit la littérature empirique et fournit aux pouvoirs publics des éléments d'analyse concrets pour concevoir des politiques fiscales coordonnées, aptes à renforcer l'efficacité du système tout en accompagnant la transition numérique. Mots clés : Paiement digital, services financiers digitaux, recettes fiscales, ARDL Abstract This article empirically examines the relationship between the digitalization of financial practices and tax revenues in Morocco. Financial inclusion is analyzed through its operational dimension, with a focus on the digitalization of banking services, particularly digital payments. This focus is justified by the growing role of these instruments in ensuring the traceability of economic transactions, which facilitates a more accurate identification of tax bases. The Moroccan context provides a relevant framework for assessing how financial technology reforms directly affect state revenue collection mechanisms. Methodologically, using quarterly data from 2011 (Q1) to 2024-Q4), the analysis employs the robust Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, carefully selected for its capacity to simultaneously examine long-run cointegration relationships and short-run adjustment mechanisms among the studied variables. In terms of findings, the retained model reveals a long-run cointegration relationship between the digitalization of financial practices, real GDP, and tax revenues, confirming that the expansion of digital payments contributes positively to public resource mobilization. The error correction mechanism indicates a rapid adjustment process with 70.66% of short-term deviations are absorbed each quarter. This adjustment speed suggest that the financial digitalization constitutes a structural driver of fiscal performance, extending beyond its role in social inclusion, emerging as a structural lever for sustained budgetary performance. This study contributes to the empirical literature and provides policymakers with actionable insights to design coordinated fiscal implications of financial technology. Such recommendations emphasize the need for institutional coordination to maximize fiscal gains from technological adoption and enhance overall tax system efficiency. Keywords: Financial digitalization; Digital payments; Tax revenues; Cointegration, ARDL model |
| Keywords: | Digital payment, tax revenues, ARDL, Financial digitalization, services financiers digitaux, recettes fiscales, Paiement digital |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05620284 |
| By: | Mindy L. Mallory |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the carry embedded in listed IBIT options and compares it with the carry embedded in matched CME bitcoin futures. Put-call parity recovers an implied forward on the ETF; BlackRock's daily holdings file maps each ETF share into bitcoin units; and CME futures prices and BRRNY, a U.S. close bitcoin reference rate, provide the corresponding futures-market carry. The difference in carry implied by these two products is consistent with frictions that limit cross-margining between spot bitcoin or ETF exposure and CME futures. In the selected-strike IBIT sample of 386 date-bucket observations, the mean wedge is 2.58 percent and the median wedge is 2.52 percent, both measured in annual percentage points. The result is consistent with segmented collateral and margin systems limiting arbitrage between regulated bitcoin-exposure venues. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.29309 |
| By: | Ruixue Jing; Luis Enrique Correa Rocha |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies are increasingly adopted as investment assets, making their interactions with traditional financial markets central to cross-asset diversification and systemic risk. This paper studies the integration of cryptocurrencies, fiat currencies, and S&P500 equities using a balanced panel of 381 assets from October 2017 to February 2024. We combine rolling correlation networks, consensus-based community detection, market-specific and system-wide Turbulence Indices, and VAR-based connectedness analysis to examine how market stress, network topology, and shock transmission co-evolve across regimes. The results show that cross-asset integration is episodic. In normal periods, the three asset classes remain relatively segmented, whereas under stress, local clustering increases, modular separation weakens, and communities become more compositionally mixed across asset classes. Connectedness analysis further shows that regime shifts alter the structure of transmission rather than simply increasing spillover magnitudes. In high-turbulence states, fiat-market turbulence becomes the main propagation channel, while network clustering and modularity become more involved in forecast-uncertainty transmission. These findings support the interpretation of network topology as an emergent, state-dependent amplification channel rather than a persistent exogenous driver of turbulence. The results highlight the need for regime-aware risk monitoring, since full-sample connectedness estimates can understate the coupling that arises when diversification benefits are most vulnerable. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.30442 |
| By: | t'Serstevens, François; Oschatz, Corinna; , Abdul.Sittar; Trilling, Damian; Guček, Alenka |
| Abstract: | Online social networks have become a central arena for political and social discourse, yet interactions on these platforms are frequently characterized by hostile interactions. While disagreement is a normal and required feature of democratic debate, research suggests that disrespectful communication discourages users from engaging in political discussions and may negatively affect both participants and the broader audience exposed to such interactions. In response, previous interventions have attempted to improve online discourse through behavioral nudges and interface design changes, though their effectiveness has often been limited. This study examines whether AI-mediated paraphrasing interventions can reduce uncivil expression while preserving substantive disagreement in online political discussions. Using an experimental setting that simulates social media interactions, we analyse how AI-generated paraphrases influence the tone of conversations and assess their effects not only on the direct participants of a debate but also on external observers who encounter these exchanges. The findings provide insights into the potential of AI-assisted communication tools to foster healthier online discourse. |
| Date: | 2026–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jhbuf_v1 |
| By: | Rischan Mafrur |
| Abstract: | Real-world asset tokenization is often presented as a mechanism for improving the liquidity of traditionally illiquid assets. However, on-chain representation and secondary-market liquidity are distinct outcomes. This paper examines whether tokenized real-world assets exhibit meaningful observed liquidity and identifies the token characteristics associated with higher market activity. Using token-level data from RWA.xyz and supplemental contract-level observations from Etherscan, the study constructs an Ethereum-based monthly panel of non-stablecoin real-world assets across three prominent categories: U.S. Treasury-backed tokens, gold-backed commodity tokens, and private-credit-related tokens. Liquidity is measured using turnover, active addresses, and an active-month indicator. The empirical design combines descriptive statistics, non-parametric group tests, and exploratory panel regressions suited to short and sparse token histories. The results show substantial heterogeneity across asset categories. Gold-backed tokens exhibit broader holder bases and more persistent on-chain activity than many Treasury and private-credit-related products, while outstanding asset value alone does not reliably predict observed liquidity. The paper contributes to the literature by developing a clearer empirical measurement framework for real-world-asset liquidity and showing that tokenization and liquidity should be analyzed as distinct outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.01131 |
| By: | Yong Zhang; Xinxiao Wu; Yunde Jia; Che Sun |
| Abstract: | Accurate stock price forecasting has consistently remained a pivotal yet challenging FinTech task that underpins quantitative trading and investment decision making. Recent efforts have been dedicated to modeling various complex relationships among stocks in the stock market toward more reliable stock price forecasting.These methods depend heavily on strong static prior assumptions by modeling either temporal dependencies within individual stocks or spatial dependencies across different stocks based on predefined structures, while the complex market dynamics that drive stock price movements remain unexplored. To alleviate this issue, we propose a novel game-theoretic modeling method that captures heterogeneous investor interactions for stock price forecasting. The core idea is to embed game-theoretic mechanisms into the heterogeneous graph structure to finely model the dynamic strategic interactions among heterogeneous investors with respect to target stocks. Additionally, temporal positional encoding is adopted to reflect the differentiated influences of each game event at different time steps within the time window on future stock price movements. Leveraging heterogeneous graph networks, we proxy the intricate dynamics of the stock market through investor games and enable real-time information propagation and node updates among all nodes. Extensive experiments conducted on two real-world benchmark dataset demonstrate that our method effectively outperforms state-of-the-art stock price forecasting methods. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.23953 |