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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Dwumfour, Richard Adjei; Pan, Lei; Nsafoah, Dennis |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the spillover dynamics, hedging and portfolio optimisation strategies among tourism, cryptocurrency, and Fintech markets within a time-varying connectedness framework, accounting for spillovers from traditional financial markets. Using daily return indices, we document significant heterogeneity in spillovers over time, with the COVID-19 period exhibiting the highest levels of interconnectedness. Traditional financial markets emerge as the dominant net transmitters of spillovers, followed by the Fintech sector, while the tourism market is predominantly a net receiver. Cryptocurrency assets, despite offering the least expensive hedge, are ineffective hedging instruments, whereas tourism assets offer the most cost-effective and efficient hedge for cryptocurrencies, albeit at elevated risk levels. While sectoral hedges are generally costlier and less effective due to strong co-movements, cross-sectoral hedges between Fintech and traditional financial markets were also expensive and ineffective. Our analysis further reveals that dynamic bilateral portfolio weight strategies consistently outperform dynamic hedge ratio strategies, with cryptocurrency assets driving superior portfolio returns. The minimum connectedness portfolio strategy, grounded in our framework, outperforms traditional minimum variance and correlation portfolio strategies, underscoring its relevance for optimizing risk-adjusted returns in dynamic markets. |
| Keywords: | Fintech, Cryptocurrency, Blockchain, Tourism, Bitcoin, Portfolio |
| JEL: | E42 G11 G15 G32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124157 |
| By: | Nicola Borri |
| Abstract: | Blockchain is a technological innovation that has the potential to radically change our financial markets by providing an alternative management approach to the "promise market", which is the foundation of our financial systems. Its disruptive potential also extends to corporate finance, where blockchain is beginning to influence valuation methods and capital allocation strategies, offering new perspectives on how companies are assessed and financed. However, for a new financial architecture based on blockchain and advancements in technology -- what is commonly referred to as Fintech -- to replace, in whole or in part, traditional finance, it will need to overcome significant challenges such as regulation, environmental sustainability, its association with illegal activities, and achieving greater efficiency in cryptocurrency markets. For this reason, the future of Fintech is likely to be more conventional -- yet also more transparent, efficient, and regulated -- ultimately evolving to resemble the traditional finance we know. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.18675 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This article presents a synopsis of financial inclusion research in banking. Complementing the existing reviews of the financial inclusion literature, I offer my own thoughts on the role of financial inclusion in banking, and the role of banks in financial inclusion. I focus my discussion on the effect of bank managerial discretion and regulation on financial inclusion outcomes, and the effect of financial inclusion on the business of banking. I show that bank managerial discretion and regulation affect financial inclusion through bank cost optimization decisions and regulatory changes that may have unintended consequences, while financial inclusion affects banks by increasing the deposit base of banks, improving bank profitability, improving banks’ resilience to shocks, improving bank stability and reducing bank risk. I also offer suggestions for future research directions. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, banks, research, fintech, risk, stability |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124259 |
| By: | Gr\'egory Bournassenko |
| Abstract: | In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability of Bitcoin's price movements, drawing a parallel with traditional financial markets. We examine whether the cryptocurrency market operates under the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or if inefficiencies still allow opportunities for arbitrage. Our methodology combines theoretical reviews, empirical analyses, machine learning approaches, and time series modeling to assess the extent to which Bitcoin's price can be predicted. We find that while, in general, the Bitcoin market tends toward efficiency, specific conditions, including information asymmetries and behavioral anomalies, occasionally create exploitable inefficiencies. However, these opportunities remain difficult to systematically identify and leverage. Our findings have implications for both investors and policymakers, particularly regarding the regulation of cryptocurrency brokers and derivatives markets. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.18982 |
| By: | Kandpal, Vinay; Ozili, Peterson K; Jeyanthi, Mary; Ranjan, Deepak; Chandra, Deep |
| Abstract: | Digital finance is revolutionizing the financial sector in significant ways. Its role in shaping the future of banks and financial services is a topic of widespread interest in the policy and academic literature. This study examines the role of digital finance in shaping the future of banks and financial services. The study shows that digital finance innovations are disrupting banking and the nature of financial services. Financial institutions that will survive in the future must undertake digital transformation to compete for market share in new customer segments and to meet the changing needs and preferences of customers. While nobody knows for sure what the future of banking and financial services will be in the distant future, it is certain that the digital finance revolution would change the face of banking and financial services in the future. Regulation, technology, and geopolitical factors could alter the future of banking and financial services. |
| Keywords: | digital finance, banks, financial services, future. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124267 |
| By: | Niklas Valentin Lehmann |
| Abstract: | Can we create binding agreements between nations? Recently, scholars have argued that blockchain technology enables us to do so. Given that this could greatly affect the anarchical world order implied by state sovereignty, this remarkable claim is investigated thoroughly. By focusing on the technical implementation of smart contracts between nations, this article finds that the potential to create binding agreements using blockchain technology is far more limited than recently suggested. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.21516 |
| By: | Lawrence, Alice |
| Abstract: | In recent years, blockchain technology has emerged as a powerful tool for enhancing transparency and resilience in global supply chains. By providing a decentralized and immutable ledger, blockchain enables real-time tracking of goods, ensuring that all stakeholders ranging from suppliers to consumers have access to accurate, verifiable data. This increased visibility helps mitigate risks such as fraud, counterfeiting, and inefficiencies in logistics. Additionally, blockchain's ability to automate processes through smart contracts enhances operational resilience, enabling quicker responses to disruptions and ensuring continuity in the face of challenges. This paper explores the role of blockchain in transforming global supply chains, focusing on its impact on transparency, traceability, and risk management. Through case studies and industry examples, we demonstrate how blockchain fosters trust, reduces operational costs, and strengthens the ability of supply chains to withstand shocks, ultimately contributing to more sustainable and efficient global trade practices. Keywords: Blockchain, transparency, resilience, global supply chains, traceability, smart contracts, fraud prevention, operational efficiency, risk management, sustainability. |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:357nb_v1 |
| By: | Moustakim Jalal; Baaddi Mohammed (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah [Fès], ERMOT - Laboratoire "Etudes et recherches en Management des Organisations et des Territoires" [Fez] - USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah) |
| Abstract: | Exploring the Impact of Digital and Financial Literacy on Employee Well-Being in Electronic Banking A Theoretical Perspective investigates the growing influence of electronic banking on the workplace, specifically focusing on employee well-being. It delves into how the widespread adoption of digital banking platforms affects employees' job satisfaction, stress levels, and overall well-being. |
| Keywords: | Banking, Digital literacy, Financial literacy Financial well-being Confidence Behaviors Household finance, Well - being, Behaviour Analysis, electronic banking, Electronic banking Digital literacy Financial literacy Employee well-being Cybersecurity, Electronic banking, Financial literacy, Employee well-being, Cybersecurity |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05031897 |
| By: | Martin Chorzempa (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Lukas Spielberger (Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy-VUB) |
| Abstract: | Despite worldwide concerns about the US dollar, the Chinese renminbi is not yet ready to be a serious contender for leading international currency status. This Policy Brief examines three of the most important Chinese approaches to increasing the renminbi's role as an international settlement currency: promote bilateral swap agreements between the People's Bank of China and other central banks; create international payment systems that do not involve the dollar, most notably the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System; and develop a central bank digital currency for alternative payment infrastructures. The authors find that Beijing's efforts fall short of posing a systemic challenge to the dollar or to infrastructures like SWIFT. Nevertheless, these approaches have enabled China to use its currency for bilateral foreign policy. US and European policymakers should consider countering or attenuating these efforts, even though they have had limited success in increasing renminbi usage. This Policy Brief has been copublished with the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy-VUB. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb25-4 |
| By: | Cole Wittbrodt |
| Abstract: | Search and matching increasingly takes place on online platforms. These platforms have elements of centralized and decentralized matching; platforms can alter the search process for its users, but are unable to eliminate search frictions entirely. I study a model where platforms can change the distribution of potential partners that an agent searches over and characterize search equilibria on platforms. When agents possess private information about their match characteristics and the platform designer acts as a profit maximizing monopolist, I characterize the optimal platform. If match characteristics are complementary and utility is transferable, I show that the solution to this screening problem is efficient, despite the presence of hidden information and market power. Matching under the optimal platform is perfectly assortative -- there is no equilibrium mismatch. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.00205 |
| By: | Anifowose, Oladotun Larry |
| Abstract: | The crux of this paper was to investigate the extent as well as whether digital finance technologies affect business performance of female owned businesses in Lagos State, Nigeria. This paper empirically examined the effect of digital finance technologies usage among female owned business performance in Lagos state, Nigeria. By looking at female owned enterprises that deal with agribusiness with special interest in aqua foods to build an econometric model to test the hypothesis. Descriptive statistics and Ordinary Least Square was used in the analysis of data collected through structured questionnaire. The study employed Multistage sampling in selecting the respondents from the study areas. Majority of the Female-Owned Business owners in the study area are still in their adulthood age and agile to work. The result showed that Majority (73.33%) of the respondents were High adopters while only 26.67% of the Female-Owned Business owners were Low adopters. POS users has the highest percentage of the high adopters followed by ATM. The implication is that mobile banking adoption level of the respondent was lower compared to all other technological innovations adopted by Female-Owned Business owners in the study area. The result of the OLS shows that only mobile banking and POS have significant effect on the performance of Female-Owned Business owners in the study area at P |
| Keywords: | Digital finance technologies Usage, female owned businesses, Business performance, Nigeria |
| JEL: | M21 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124325 |
| By: | Thanasis Stengos (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada); Theodore Panagiotidis (University of Macedonia); Georgios Papapanagiotou (University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model to assess the impact of alternative drivers of bitcoin returns. We consider an extended set of alternative drivers and select the most important variables using a Bayesian variable selection method. To examine the evolution of the Granger-causality relationship between the selected variables and bitcoin returns over time, we employ a new approach based on the estimates of the TVP-VAR model and heteroscedastic-consistent Granger-causality hypothesis testing. In addition, we perform impulse response function and forecast error variance decomposition analysis. The results indicate that investor sentiment and ethereum returns affect bitcoin returns over the entire sample. Trading volume emerges as an important determinant of bitcoin returns when bitcoin prices remain relatively steady. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR, time-varying Granger-causality, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, uncertainty, Google trends |
| JEL: | C11 C12 C15 C52 D80 E58 G15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gue:guelph:2025-01 |
| By: | Pietro Saggese; Michael Fröwis; Stefan Kitzler; Bernhard Haslhofer; Raphael Auer |
| Abstract: | Total Value Locked (TVL) aims to measure the aggregate value of cryptoassets deposited in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols. Although blockchain data is public, the way TVL is computed is not well understood. In practice, its calculation on major TVL aggregators relies on self-reports from community members and lacks standardization, making it difficult to verify published figures independently. We thus conduct a systematic study on 939 DeFi projects deployed in Ethereum. We study the methodologies used to compute TVL, examine factors hindering verifiability, and ultimately propose standardization attempts in the field. We find that 10.5% of the protocols rely on external servers; 68 methods alternative to standard balance queries exist, although their use decreased over time; and 240 equal balance queries are repeated on multiple protocols. These findings indicate limits to verifiability and transparency. We thus introduce "verifiable Total Value Locked" (vTVL), a metric measuring the TVL that can be verified relying solely on on-chain data and standard balance queries. A case study on 400 protocols shows that our estimations align with published figures for 46.5% of protocols. Informed by these findings, we discuss design guidelines that could facilitate a more verifiable, standardized, and explainable TVL computation. |
| Keywords: | decentralized finance, DeFi, Total Value Locked, TVL, Ethereum |
| JEL: | E42 E58 F31 G12 G19 G23 L50 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1268 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria. The study extends the empirical debate on the determinants of financial inclusion by focusing on the monetary policy and banking sector factors that influence the level of financial inclusion in Nigeria. The study employs the two-stage least squares regression method to estimate the determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria during the 2007–2021 period. The results show that the central bank monetary policy rate, the savings deposit rate, and the loan to deposit ratio of banks are significant determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria. Specifically, increase in the central bank interest rate decreases the level of financial inclusion, increase in the savings deposit rate increases the level of financial inclusion, and increase in the loan-to-deposit ratio decreases the level of financial inclusion. These determinants are robust to alternative estimation using the quantile regression method. There is further evidence that the interbank lending rate, inflation rate and the nominal interest rate are also determinants of financial inclusion in Nigeria based on the two-stage least squares estimation. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion, determinants, monetary policy, index, inflation, central bank, Nigeria, interest rate, savings, interbank lending |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124265 |
| By: | Masataka Mori; Juan M. Sanchez |
| Abstract: | The share of Americans late on credit card payments and the share of debt that’s past due continue rising widely, but growth in delinquency rates has slowed since early 2024. |
| Keywords: | credit card delinquencies |
| Date: | 2025–05–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:99966 |
| By: | Nihal Chouiekh (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Mohammed Belbachir (UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | Our paper aims to highlight the impact of trust, perceived usefulness and ease of use on the use of blockchain in the medical monitoring process of patients in clinics in Morocco. In this regard, in order to further explore this topic, we opted for hypothetical-deductive reasoning and administered a questionnaire to 160 healthcare managers. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS and Smart-PLS. The correlation results confirmed the impact of perceived usefulness on the intention to use blockchain; however, ease of use and trust were not determining factors in managers propensity to use blockchain in the Moroccan healthcare sector. Furthermore, after presenting a summary of the method used, the identification of limitations presents a considerable advantage for researchers to leverage in order to further their future academic work. |
| Abstract: | Notre papier vise à mettre en valeur l'impact de la confiance, de l'utilité perçue et la facilité d'utilisation sur l'utilisation de la blockchain dans le processus de suivi médical des malades dans les cliniques au Maroc. À cet égard, afin de bien approfondir l'étude sur ce thème, nous avons opté pour un raisonnement hypothético déductif, et en administrant un questionnaire auprès de 160 responsables dans le domaine de la santé. Les données recueillies ont été analysées par le biais de SPSS et Smart-PLS. Les résultats des corrélations ont approuvé l'impact de l'utilité perçue sur l'intention de recourir à la blockchain, cependant la facilité d'utilisation et la confiance ne constituent pas des facteurs déterminants dans la propension des managers vers l'utilisation de la blockchain dans le secteur sanitaire au Maroc. En outre, après une présentation d'une récapitulation de la méthode suivie, la détermination des limites présente un atout considérable à saisir par les chercheurs afin d'approfondir les futurs travaux académiques. |
| Keywords: | safety, Structural equation, Healthcare, Morocco, Blockchain, Equation structurelle, Maroc, Sécurité, secteur sanitaire, Secteur sanitaire |
| Date: | 2025–04–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05032476 |
| By: | Tetsuya Takaishi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on market efficiency by analyzing three time series -- price returns, absolute returns, and volatility increments -- in stock (Deutscher Aktienindex, Nikkei 225, Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE), and Volatility Index) and cryptocurrency (Bitcoin and Ethereum) markets. The effect is found to vary by asset class and market. In the stock market, while the pandemic did not influence the Hurst exponent of volatility increments, it affected that of returns and absolute returns (except in the SSE, where returns remained unaffected). In the cryptocurrency market, the pandemic did not alter the Hurst exponent for any time series but influenced the strength of multifractality in returns and absolute returns. Some Hurst exponent time series exhibited a gradual decline over time, complicating the assessment of pandemic-related effects. Consequently, segmented analyses by pandemic periods may erroneously suggest an impact, warranting caution in period-based studies. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.18960 |
| By: | Boyang Mu (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Natkamon Tovanich (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Julien Prat (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Lending protocols have transformed the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) ecosystem, driving innovation while also introducing new risks. This study develops a machine learning framework to predict user behavior and assess factors influencing changes in health ratios within the Compound V2 protocol. By analyzing user historical data, position metrics, and market conditions, we propose machine learning-based models to predict whether users will adjust their positions or face liquidation. We find that Random Forest and XGBoost models excel in predicting these outcomes, with features like collateral values, historical risk exposure, and asset composition playing significant roles. Additionally, panel regression models reveal insights into health ratio dynamics over time and across asset types, as well as user sophistication. These findings offer a better understanding of user behavior, highlighting opportunities for improved risk modeling and adaptive strategies in DeFi lending. |
| Keywords: | user modeling, decision-making, liquidation, financial risks, decentralized finance, lending protocols |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05041569 |
| By: | Mr. Tanai Khiaonarong; Kasperi N Korpinen; Emran Islam |
| Abstract: | We demonstrate how computer-based simulations could support cyber stress testing exercises through a three-step framework. First, cyber-attack scenarios are designed to target the systemic nodes of a payment network at different times, disrupting a major bank, critical service provider, large-value payment system, and a foreign exchange settlement system. Second, the stress resulting from the scenarios is simulated using transaction-level data, and its impact is measured through a range of risk metrics. And third, cyber preparedness is discussed to identify effective practices that could strengthen the cyber resilience of the financial sector. The exercise provides insights into the main vulnerabilities of the financial sector and key transmission channels under plausible scenarios that necessitate preemptive action and recovery and response measures. For example, simulation results for Finnish data suggest that end-of-day liquidity risk is most severe when a cyber-attack hits a major bank or several banks simultaneously through dependence on a common critical service provider, compared to an attack on a centralized payment system where effective queuing and liquidity-saving mechanisms can better support recovery. Outcomes could be aggravated under more severe and prolonged scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Cyber Resilience; Stress Testing; Simulation |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/085 |
| By: | Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat); Mustapha Oukassi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the integration of predictive analytics technologies into the traditional banking advisory model, creating an "augmented banking advisor" paradigm that enhances personalized financial services. While digital banking solutions have proliferated, the human element remains crucial for complex financial decisions. Our research demonstrates how predictive algorithms can complement human expertise by anticipating customer needs, identifying relevant opportunities, and supporting personalized recommendations. Through a mixed-methods approach combining a controlled experiment across three European banking institutions and qualitative analysis of advisor-client interactions, we found that augmented advisors achieved 37% higher customer satisfaction scores and 28% improved financial outcomes compared to traditional advisory methods. Key challenges identified include ethical considerations in predictive recommendation systems, advisor adoption barriers, and the need for transparent AI-human collaboration frameworks. This study contributes to the emerging field of human-AI collaboration in financial services and provides practical implementation guidelines for financial institutions seeking to enhance their advisory capabilities through predictive analytics. |
| Keywords: | Predictive Analytics Banking Advisor Artificial Intelligence Personalized Financial Services Human-AI Collaboration, Predictive Analytics, Banking Advisor, Artificial Intelligence, Personalized Financial Services, Human-AI Collaboration |
| Date: | 2025–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05024818 |
| By: | Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat); Mustapha Oukassi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | This research examines the phenomenon of early freezing of digital bank accounts in Morocco, characterized by significant inactivity in the first three months following account opening. Faced with the challenges of profitability and customer satisfaction that this phenomenon raises, the study proposes a predictive model integrating data from open banking to identify and prevent early inactivity. Through a mixed methodology combining retrospective analysis of transactional data and longitudinal monitoring of a cohort of 150 new customers of a Moroccan digital bank, the research characterizes at-risk profiles and evaluates the marginal contribution of multi-banking data in improving predictive capabilities. Three modeling approaches are compared: a reference model using only the bank's internal data, a model enriched by open banking, and an advanced hybrid model integrating deep learning techniques. The results reveal that the integration of open banking data improves predictive accuracy by 16.4%, offering Moroccan digital financial institutions operational tools to strengthen customer engagement from the early stages of the banking relationship. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche examine le phénomène de gel précoce des comptes bancaires numériques au Maroc, caractérisé par une inactivité significative dans les trois premiers mois suivant l'entrée en relation. Face aux enjeux de rentabilité et de satisfaction client que ce phénomène soulève, l'étude propose un modèle prédictif intégrant les données issues de l'open banking pour identifier et prévenir l'inactivité précoce. À travers une méthodologie mixte combinant analyse rétrospective de données transactionnelles et suivi longitudinal d'une cohorte de 150 nouveaux clients d'une banque digitale marocaine, la recherche caractérise les profils à risque et évalue la contribution marginale des données multi-bancaires dans l'amélioration des capacités prédictives. Trois approches de modélisation sont comparées : un modèle de référence utilisant uniquement les données internes de la banque, un modèle enrichi par l'open banking, et un modèle hybride avancé intégrant des techniques de deep learning. Les résultats révèlent que l'intégration des données d'open banking améliore la précision prédictive de 16, 4%, offrant aux institutions financières digitales marocaines des outils opérationnels pour renforcer l'engagement client dès les premières étapes de la relation bancaire. |
| Keywords: | Open banking, digital banking, account freezing, predictive modeling, machine learning, Morocco, customer inactivity, banque digitale, gel de compte, modélisation prédictive, Maroc, inactivité client |
| Date: | 2025–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05040790 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the effect of financial inclusion on economic welfare in three religious country groups: majority Christian countries, majority Hindu countries and majority Muslim countries. The study analysed 30 religious countries during the 2004 to 2020 period using the two-stage least squares regression method. The economic welfare variables are the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, GDP per capita growth, inflation rate and the unemployment rate. The main explanatory variable is the composite financial inclusion index. The control variables are corruption control index, political stability index, total population growth, rule of law index and the regulatory quality index. It was found that financial inclusion is positively correlated with corruption control, political stability, rule of law and regulatory quality in religious countries while financial inclusion is negatively correlated with total population growth, economic growth, GDP per capita growth, inflation rate and unemployment rate in religious countries. Regression results show that high level of financial inclusion decreases the unemployment rate in majority Muslim countries. A pre-existing low unemployment rate is significantly associated with higher financial inclusion in majority Christian and Muslim countries. High level of financial inclusion decreases the inflation rate in countries that have significant Islamic finance activity. Financial inclusion has an insignificant effect on economic welfare in majority Hindu countries. The implication of the findings is that the type of religion and the size of Islamic finance activity matter in understanding the relationship between financial inclusion and economic welfare in religious countries. |
| Keywords: | Religion, financial inclusion, Hindu, Islam, Muslim, Christianity, economic welfare, economic wellbeing, economic growth, inflation, unemployment, GDP per capita growth. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124262 |
| By: | Eduardo C. Ferraciolli; Francesco Renzini; Tanya V. Araújo; Flaminio Squazzoni |
| Abstract: | St. Francis of Assisi (1181/82-1226) famously called money the devil’s dung, and indeed money is often associated with greed, inequality, and corruption. Drawing on Nowak’s five rules for the evolution of cooperation, we argue here that money promotes the formation of circuits of generalized reciprocity across human groups that are fundamental to social evolution. In an evolutionary tournament, we show that money exchange is an evolutionarily stable strategy that promotes cooperation without relying on the cognitive demands of direct reciprocity or reputation mechanisms. However, we also find that excessive liquidity can be detrimental because it can distort the informational value of money as a signal of past cooperation, making defection more profitable. Our results suggest that, in addition to institutions that promoted trust and punishment, the emergence of institutions that regulated the money supply was key to maintaining generalized reciprocity within and across human groups. |
| Keywords: | money, cooperation, reputation, generalized reciprocity, evolution. |
| JEL: | C23 E52 E58 E62 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03792025 |
| By: | Tarun Chitra |
| Abstract: | Lending within decentralized finance (DeFi) has facilitated over \$100 billion of loans since 2020. A long-standing inefficiency in DeFi lending protocols such as Aave is the use of static pricing mechanisms for loans. These mechanisms have been shown to maximize neither welfare nor revenue for participants in DeFi lending protocols. Recently, adaptive supply models pioneered by Morpho and Euler have become a popular means of dynamic pricing for loans. This pricing is facilitated by agents known as curators, who bid to match supply and demand. We construct and analyze an online learning model for static and dynamic pricing models within DeFi lending. We show that when loans are small and have a short duration relative to an observation time $T$, adaptive supply models achieve $O(\log T)$ regret, while static models cannot achieve better than $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ regret. We then study competitive behavior between curators, demonstrating that adaptive supply mechanisms maximize revenue and welfare for both borrowers and lenders. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.18237 |
| By: | Suren Karapetyan (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Matej Bajgar (CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Using a difference-in-differences design and a global database of startups, investors and deals, we study the effect of exits (IPOs and acquisitions) of unicorn companies - privately held startups valued over USD 1 billion - on the subsequent investment activity of their investors. We find that an exit by a unicorn startup increases the number of investments by its investors over the following 3 years by about 7.5% and the value of their investments by about 23%, relative to investors in a matched control group. The effects are driven by IPOs and early investors of the exiting unicorns: a unicorn IPO leads, on average, to 2 additional investments and additional USD 13 million invested by each of the unicorn's early investors. Post-exit investments increase both within and outside of the location and the industry of the exited unicorn, but the growth in investments outside the original geography and industry is more pronounced. The results provide evidence of an important mechanism in which a successful investment exit boosts subsequent venture capital activity, but they also indicate that this activity need not be concentrated in the same locations and industries. |
| Keywords: | Unicorn Exits, IPOs, M&As, Early-stage Investors, Startup Ecosystem |
| JEL: | G24 G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_09 |
| By: | Salma Zouaoui; Ioana Filipas; Punita Raj; François Marmier; Bertrand Rose |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the barriers to Digital Transformation (DT) in French service SMEs. As literature on DT of service SMEs is scarce, this study uses a combination of a literature review analysis of barriers to DT in SMEs and a thematic analysis of the challenges to DT encountered by 26 service SMEs. The research identifies six main categories of barriers: technological barriers, business and strategic barriers, process and operational barriers, organizational barriers, human and talent barriers and security and compliance barriers. This paper highlights that service SMEs highly underestimate the barriers related to human and talent barriers and slightly underestimate organizational barriers while overestimating business and strategic barriers. This paper emphasizes the inadequacy of existing DT strategies designed for larger corporations and raises the need for research in the DT of service sector and particularly of service SMEs. The study also discusses the potential biases inherent in the data collection from reports intended for tax administration and the limitations of the sample size. |
| Keywords: | barrier, challenge, digital transformation, qualitative analysis, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, thematic analysis. |
| JEL: | L8 L80 O3 O30 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2024-49 |
| By: | Claire Li; David Peter Wallis Freeborn |
| Abstract: | This study explores the application of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to AI-powered digital innovations within a transnational governance framework. By integrating Latourian actor-network theory (ANT), this study examines how institutional motivations, regulatory compliance, and ethical and cultural acceptance drive organisations to develop and adopt AI innovations, enhancing their market acceptance and transnational accountability. We extend the TAM framework by incorporating regulatory, ethical, and socio-technical considerations as key social pressures shaping AI adoption. Recognizing that AI is embedded within complex actor-networks, we argue that accountability is co-constructed among organisations, regulators, and societal actors rather than being confined to individual developers or adopters. To address these challenges, we propose two key solutions: (1) internal resource reconfiguration, where organisations restructure their governance and compliance mechanisms to align with global standards; and (2) reshaping organisational boundaries through actor-network management, fostering engagement with external stakeholders, regulatory bodies, and transnational governance institutions. These approaches allow organisations to enhance AI accountability, foster ethical and regulatory alignment, and improve market acceptance on a global scale. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.20215 |
| By: | Nicola Cetorelli; Gonzalo Cisternas; Asani Sarkar |
| Abstract: | Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) constitute a variety of entities—fintech companies, mutual funds, hedge funds, insurance companies, private debt providers, special purpose vehicles, among others—that have become important providers of financial intermediation services worldwide. But what is the essence of nonbank financial intermediation? Does it have any inherent advantages, and how does it interact with that performed by banks? In this Liberty Street Economics post, which is based on our recent staff report, we provide a model-based survey of recent literature on nonbank intermediation, with an emphasis on how it competes, or cooperates, with traditional banks. |
| Keywords: | Non-banks; nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs); banks; securitization; private credit |
| JEL: | G21 G23 |
| Date: | 2025–05–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:99997 |
| By: | Nicola Cetorelli |
| Abstract: | Presentation at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's 29th Annual Financial Markets Conference 2025: Financial Intermediation in Transition, delivered by Nicola Cetorelli, Head of Financial Intermediation, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. |
| Keywords: | nonbanks; banks; credit markets; nonbank lending; financial intermediation |
| Date: | 2025–05–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:99994 |
| By: | Claridge, Jordan; Delabastita, Vincent; Gibbs, Spike |
| Abstract: | For long periods of history, a significant proportion of the labour force has received all or part of their wages in non-monetary in-kind payments. Despite its historical ubiquity, this form of labour remuneration remains poorly understood. This paper presents a framework which allows for the valuation and interpretation of in-kind wages. We apply our method to a new dataset of agricultural wages for labourers in medieval England (1270-1440), most of whom received a composite wage for which in-kind payment was the largest share. Assessing the market value of the wages these workers received, we find an increase in the relative importance of cash payments in the latter decades of the 14th century. We show that this was connected to a fundamental shift in labour relations, providing new empirical insights into the so-called ‘golden age of labour’ that followed the Black Death. |
| Keywords: | labour markets; labour relations; medieval economy; wages |
| JEL: | J33 J42 N33 N53 |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:120307 |