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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Odongo Kodongo |
| Date: | 2024–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:893 |
| By: | Denys Casiano (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru's (BCRP) Retail Payments Interoperability Strategy on payment instrument choice and household financial fragility in Peru. Interoperability connected previously segmented digital-wallet networks and payment rails, reducing compatibility and coordination frictions that limit the effective use of digital payments. I combine quarterly microdata from the National Household Survey (ENAHO, 2022–2024) with administrative information to build a predetermined district-level exposure measure based on the relative pre-rollout (December 2022) presence of institutions that become interoperable in each implementation phase. I exploit the staggered rollout and this territorial heterogeneity in a staggered-adoption difference-in-differences design following Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021), complemented with robustness checks and placebo tests. The results suggest a reallocation away from traditional instruments toward more digitized payment channels enabled by interoperability. In particular, I find a decline in cash use for everyday and recurring expenditures and a reduction in card use, alongside an increase in digital channel use (internet banking: +3.3 pp). In parallel, financial fragility falls by 2.3–2.4 pp, consistent with lower liquidity frictions and a greater ability to smooth shocks through timely transfers. The evidence is consistent with a technology channel, as more exposed districts experience a 7.5–7.9 pp increase in the probability of having prepaid mobile internet, in line with households acquiring the minimum connectivity needed to operate mobile payments. Effects concentrate in districts with higher pre-treatment connectivity, human capital, and formality, indicating that interoperability can accelerate the transition away from cash, although its reach remains constrained by persistent structural barriers. |
| Keywords: | Payment systems; interoperability; digital wallets; demand for cash; retail payments; household finance; mobile internet; network externalities. |
| JEL: | D14 D83 E41 E42 G21 L86 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:dt-2026-010 |
| By: | Strutovska, Nataliia |
| Abstract: | Introduction. In the modern digital economy, transactions involving digital assets represent one of the most complex challenges in the field of financial law and tax administration. The absence of a unified legal definition of digital assets across different jurisdictions leads to conflicts in their classification as property, goods, currency, or financial instruments. Such discrepancies create conditions for “regulatory arbitrage” and increase the risks of tax evasion in the cross-border space. The rapid development of the cryptocurrency market and the implementation of blockchain technologies generate new challenges for national tax systems and necessitate the harmonization of legal approaches at the global level. Purpose. The purpose of the study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the legal challenges and approaches to the taxation of digital asset transactions, to identify the advantages and limitations of existing models in the European Union, the United States, and Asia, and to determine the directions of international harmonization in the context of financial digitalization. Materials and Methods. The materials of the study include scientific publications and regulatory legal acts concerning the legal status of digital assets and the practice of their taxation. The methodological framework is based on comparative legal analysis, logical generalization, systematization, and bibliometric review of modern research. An analytical approach without empirical data was applied to assess the impact of technological innovations. Results. The article systematizes approaches to the definition of digital assets in major jurisdictions and analyzes their tax regimes. It is established that the absence of a unified legal approach hinders the development of a stable international taxation system. The paper reveals the application of the MiCA Regulation in the EU, the fragmented U.S. model, and the polar scenarios of Asian countries. The results of pilot projects in the United Kingdom and Estonia on the use of blockchain technologies in tax administration are presented. It is proven that the effectiveness of digital solutions depends on the institutional capacity of the state and the level of international coordination. Prospects. Further research should focus on developing a model for a harmonized legal definition of digital assets, unifying approaches to their taxation, and creating unified standards for the use of blockchain technologies in tax administration systems. This will help reduce regulatory fragmentation and enhance the transparency of the global financial market. |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:uy3rq_v1 |
| By: | Helmut Elsinger (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division); Helmut Stix (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division); Martin Summer (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines consumers intended adoption of a digital euro in Austria using a discrete choice experiment. We estimate a mixed logit model to quantify the role of key attributes such as privacy, offline functionality, security against financial loss, monetary incentives and payment form factors. Our findings indicate that security and financial incentives are the strongest drivers of adoption, while privacy plays a secondary role. We identify significant heterogeneity in adoption likelihood across socio-demographic groups. Simulations suggest that under realistic design assumptions, approximately 45% of individuals are found to have an intention to adopt a digital euro. |
| Keywords: | Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), Consumer Adoption, Discrete Choice Experiment, Payment Preferences |
| JEL: | E42 D12 G21 C35 |
| Date: | 2025–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:268 |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; David Argente; Diana Van Patten |
| Abstract: | We study the resilience of payment systems to large disruptions in digital infrastructure caused by natural disasters and outages. While advanced economies have rapidly shifted toward electronic payments, these systems depend critically on electricity and information technology, raising concerns about their reliability during crises. We combine high-frequency county-level electricity outage data with detailed weather records, transaction-level expenditure data, household scanner data, and new representative surveys from the United States, Spain, and Sweden. Event-study evidence shows that natural disasters---especially hurricanes---generate persistent outages that sharply reduce expenditures. Natural disasters by themselves do not alter households' choice of payment method; instead, shifts toward cash arise through three channels: electronic payment methods become unavailable, households increase cash holdings for precautionary reasons, and cash is subsequently spent once available ("cash burn"). Consistent with these mechanisms, payment composition shifts markedly: spending rises before disasters due to stockpiling, largely financed with credit, while after disasters digital payments decline and cash usage rises, particularly in areas experiencing outages. Survey evidence confirms that nearly half of consumers are unable to use their preferred electronic payment during outages and that cash serves as a key fallback. Exploiting variation in cash holdings across households and locations, we find that greater access to cash increases the likelihood of completing transactions during outages and mitigates expenditure declines. Complementary survey evidence and the immediate response to our information treatment show that outages and official guidance increase desired cash holdings. Finally, we embed an RCT in the NielsenIQ panel: roughly half of panel households receive authoritative preparedness guidance, and we follow their realized purchases through the subsequent hurricane season. This design provides a clean framework for causal identification of whether greater cash preparedness smooths consumption during weather shocks. Together, the observational, survey, and experimental components of the paper show that cash plays a critical role in sustaining economic activity during payment-system disruptions and point to the value of offline-capable payment instruments, including CBDCs, in increasingly digital economies. |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35115 |
| By: | Martin Summer (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Studies Division) |
| Abstract: | As central banks explore issuing digital currencies for public use, a critical design challenge is how to protect the privacy of the granular data trails digital payments leave behind. While privacy is widely recognised as a goal, policy debates often frame it as a trade-off with crime prevention—limiting ambition and reinforcing legacy design choices that assume privacy and enforcement are fundamentally in compatible. This risks replicating the data practices of commercial platforms in public infrastructure. This paper charts an alternative approach. Recent advances in privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs) now enable both strong privacy protec tions and verifiable compliance through programmable, rule-based auditability. By embedding such capabilities directly into system architecture, central banks can make privacy a built-in feature of digital money—strengthening institutional trust. Building on recent advances in cryptography and strategic analysis, we offer a con ceptual framework that treats privacy and auditability as distinct design dimen sions, and distil three design principles for privacy-protective CBDCs that remain compatible with enforcement needs. We also introduce a “PET dashboard” that maps specific technologies to CBDC system layers, highlighting where collaboration across central banks, academia, and industry is most needed. |
| Keywords: | CBDC, privacy-enhancing technologies (PETs), economics of privacy |
| JEL: | E42 G28 D82 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:onb:oenbwp:278 |
| By: | Jesper Akesson; Kush Amlani; Raul Cepeda Suarez; Emily Chissell; Stefan Hunt; Michael Luca; Gemma Petrie |
| Abstract: | Can active choice mitigate the effects of preset defaults? We study this question using a difference-in-differences design around the rollout of the EU’s Digital Markets Act, which required iOS and Android to display browser choice screens under certain conditions. We find large effects, with notable differences across platforms: from 15 months after the mandate onward, Firefox usage was 113 percent higher on iOS and 12 percent higher on Android relative to a no-mandate counterfactual. This gap is consistent with rollout differences, as Android showed choice screens primarily on new devices, whereas iOS also showed them on existing devices. |
| JEL: | D03 K0 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35112 |
| By: | Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh; Christophe Rault |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of 67 countries, this article examines how financial inclusion, among other factors, shapes the transition to inclusive and sustainable growth. First, we analyze the heterogeneous and asymmetric relationship between inclusiveness and its main determinants using recent panel quantile regression techniques. Our results suggest that the distributional effects of financial inclusion, institutional quality, and information and communication technology (ICT) diffusion are statistically significant only in the lower tail of the conditional distribution. Although both financial inclusion and ICT diffusion are detrimental to inclusive growth, institutional quality is conducive to greater shared prosperity. Next, we examine the existence of a mediating effect in the process of inclusiveness using non-linear panel threshold modelling. Our results highlight the mediating role of financial inclusion in achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth. While ICT infrastructure negatively impacts growth inclusiveness at low financial inclusion levels, a positive relationship is observed when financial affordability exceeds a certain threshold. Policymakers are called upon to harness the combined impacts of financial inclusion, governance quality, and ICTs to ensure inclusive economic growth. |
| Keywords: | inclusive growth, financial inclusion, non-linear panel data modelling |
| JEL: | C23 O11 O16 O43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12615 |
| By: | de Araujo, Felipe Telles Veloso |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that blockchain has not eliminated the traditional problem of asset concealment, but has profoundly changed its form. Unlike cash, transactions on public blockchains leave durable, auditable, and chronologically ordered traces. That does not amount to absolute transparency. It means, rather, that the investigation of illicit financial flows now depends on a double movement: technical reading of the on-chain trail and production of off-chain evidence capable of attributing that trail to concrete persons, companies, or criminal organizations. The paper explains why pseudonymity is not anonymity, examines the main forensic heuristics used in blockchain analysis and their evidentiary limits, and shows how mixers, privacy-enhancing technologies, cross-chain bridges, and DeFi increase investigative complexity without making attribution impossible. It then discusses major international cases, recent Brazilian regulation and case law, and the institutional importance of cooperation among courts, regulators, exchanges, and investigators. The central claim is that blockchain’s principal contribution to the repression of illicit financial flows is not total transparency, but a change in the evidentiary regime: the challenge is less to locate value in the abstract than to reconstruct trajectories, test control hypotheses, and transform technical traces into valid proof and effective asset recovery. |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:lawarc:k5n7a_v1 |
| By: | Francesca Carapella; Arazi Lubis; Alexandros Vardoulakis |
| Abstract: | This note examines recent developments in the stablecoin industry and their implications for financial stability. During 2025, stablecoins have grown by about 50 percent in terms of market capitalization, with transaction volume and use in DeFi protocols also surging. |
| Date: | 2026–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:103072 |
| By: | Nemoto, Kazuki; KUDO, Shuma; Ueda, Kohei; , シロサキサクヤ; Weidener, Lukas; Hamada, Hiro Taiyo (Arya Inc.) |
| Abstract: | The current scientific system faces systemic challenges. Decentralized Science (DeSci) has emerged as a technological extension of the Open Science (OS) movement, aiming to improve transparency, accessibility, and equity in research through blockchain and Web3 technologies. While DeSci has gained traction in Western countries, little is known about its adoption in non-Western contexts. Here, we surveyed 37 researchers and technologists active in Japan’s emerging decentralized‑science (DeSci) during spring 2024 to assess how far the movement has progressed and what impedes its progress. Roughly 60% of respondents had already worked on blockchain projects and more than 80% owned crypto assets, yet almost 90% had discovered DeSci only in the past two years. Respondents largely embraced DeSci’s five core ideals: shared governance, transparent funding, open access, shared ownership, and equitable incentives. Meanwhile, four obstacles to growth were highlighted: low public awareness, difficulty sustaining engagement, limited talent diversity, and regulatory uncertainty. Taken together, the findings suggest that Japan’s DeSci community should also invest not only in further technical changes, but also in training, in broadening its talent base, and in setting clear guidelines. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the DeSci landscape in Japan and offers recommendations for its future development. |
| Date: | 2026–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:metaar:yxj53_v2 |
| By: | Gustavo S. Cortes; Lucas A. Mariani; Vinicios Sant'Anna |
| Keywords: | Financial Markets, trade |
| Date: | 2024–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:890 |
| By: | Ngunza Maniata, Kevin; Pinshi, Christian P. |
| Abstract: | This article provides a structured review of the rapidly growing literature on the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) for central banking and proposes an organizing taxonomy of the main macro-financial and institutional channels discussed in recent contributions. As a general-purpose technology, AI has the potential to influence productivity growth, price-setting behavior, inflation dynamics, and the transmission of monetary policy, while its diffusion in the financial system may introduce new sources of systemic risk through algorithmic coordination, model opacity, and cyber vulnerabilities. The article synthesizes recent contributions from international financial institutions and academic research to organize these channels within a coherent macro-financial framework. It also reviews documented applications of AI within central banks, including macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting, supervisory technology, payments oversight, and internal information processing. Attention is given to the emerging literature on African central banks and other emerging market economies, where AI offers opportunities to alleviate data constraints but also raises challenges related to skills, infrastructure, and governance. By organizing and critically assessing existing evidence, the article clarifies why AI constitutes a structural issue for central banking and identifies key areas for future research on monetary and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence; Central banks; Monetary policy; Financial stability; Emerging markets. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 G01 G28 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128352 |
| By: | Nicolás Leiva; Carlos A. Medel |
| Abstract: | This study presents a system for forecasting cash demand in Chile, both for total currency in circulation and by denomination. The framework considers three families of models: time-series specifications; cointegrated VAR models with macroeconomic fundamentals grounded in a money demand framework (activity, inflation, and interest rates); and stationary conjunctural models based on expectations of those fundamentals. For each family, the mean, the median, and the best-performing model are evaluated, allowing for a comparison of predictive performance and the identification of more accurate methodologies, while controlling for parametric and functional uncertainty through forecast combinations. Forecasting results at one-, two-, and three-year horizons show that predictive accuracy differs across model families and denominations, and that forecast combinations outperform individual models in several cases. In particular, time-series models exhibit a robust and relatively superior performance, especially in the case of coins, while cointegrated VAR models perform well for several banknote denominations, albeit with a loss of accuracy during periods of higher volatility. Conjunctural models, while incorporating additional information, do not systematically outperform time-series specifications and display, on average, a similar level of performance. The system constitutes an operational input for the Central Bank of Chile and is potentially applicable to other central banks, as it supports treasury management and the planning of printing, minting, and logistics. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1077 |
| By: | Esteban Méndez-Chacón (Department of Economic Research, Central Bank of Costa Rica); Diana Van Patten (Yale University and NBER); Sake Bigio (UCLA and NBER) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces an endogenous network of payment chains into a business cycle model. Motivated by evidence of linked payments across firms in Costa Rica, we develop a framework where production orders form bilateral relations: some payments are executed immediately, while others—chained payments—are delayed until upstream payments are received. These chains capture real-world situations in which firms must wait to be paid before paying their own suppliers, leaving resources temporarily idle even when demand and capacity exist. In equilibrium, agents choose the amount of chained payments given interest rates and access to internal funds or credit lines. This choice determines the payment-chain network and aggregate total-factor productivity (TFP). The paper characterizes equilibrium dynamics and pecuniary externalities when agents internalize their own payment delays but not the delays imposed on others. *** Resumen: Este artículo introduce una red endógena de cadenas de pagos en un modelo de ciclo económico. Motivados por evidencia de pagos vinculados entre empresas, desarrollamos un marco en el que las órdenes de producción generan relaciones bilaterales: algunos pagos se ejecutan de manera inmediata, mientras que otros —pagos encadenados— se retrasan hasta que se reciben los pagos de etapas anteriores. Estas cadenas capturan situaciones del mundo real en las que las empresas deben esperar a cobrar antes de pagar a sus propios proveedores, lo que deja recursos temporalmente inactivos incluso cuando existe demanda y capacidad productiva. En equilibrio, los agentes eligen la cantidad de pagos encadenados dados los tipos de interés y el acceso a fondos internos o líneas de crédito. Esta elección determina la red de cadenas de pagos y la productividad total de los factores agregada. El artículo caracteriza la dinámica de equilibrio y las externalidades pecuniarias cuando los agentes internalizan sus propios retrasos en los pagos, pero no los retrasos que imponen a otros. |
| Keywords: | Payments; Networks; Business Cycles, Pagos, Redes, Ciclos económicos |
| JEL: | E32 E42 G01 O16 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apk:doctra:2601 |
| By: | Tiriongo, Samuel; Mulindi, Hillary; Nyagaka, Hesborn; Milimo, Davis |
| Abstract: | The study examines how cost of credit, digital finance and bank capital shape MSME lending and performance in Kenya. Using FinAccess 2024 microdata and bank-level panel data (2011-2024), we estimate a control-function Probit, Mundlak Random Effects Logit and System-GMM model. Results show that perceived high borrowing costs are endogenous to loan access, but become insignificant once corrected. Firm age, size, formalization and female ownership significantly improve loan access. Digital finance usage for business transactions increases approval probabilities, while urban location widens access gaps. On the supply side, capital adequacy significantly anchors sustainable loan growth. Overall, MSME performance is driven more by structural firm characteristics and credit supply conditions than by cost perceptions alone. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kbawps:340174 |
| By: | Greitens, Jan |
| Abstract: | This paper critically examines the relationship between Georg Friedrich Knapp's "State Theory of Money" and today's Neo-Chartalism, often associated with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Several contributions have questioned whether the Neo-Chartalists are right to claim Knapp as their predecessor. However, these analyses do not pay sufficient attention to the historical context in which Knapp wrote. This includes contemporary debates and the monetary history of his time. The Neo-Chartalists' reception of Knapp's ideas was almost exclusively through the 1924 translation of the "State Theory of Money". Problematically, this translation has many shortcomings, in particular a narrow focus on the legislative state. But Knapp's focus was on country-specific examples of currencies, in particular the 1892 currency reform in Austria-Hungary. There are significant differences between Knapp's published and unpublished writings. Archival findings reveal Knapp's reflections on inflation, which align him with the Real Bills Doctrine and a proto-Fiscal Theory of the Price Level. He argued that monetary state financing should be used only as a last resort. Contrary to MMT's advocacy for state-funded expenditures, Knapp supported a balanced budget, expressing concern over the impact of monetary inflation on exchange rates. Apart from fairly general principles such as the nominality of money, the similarities between Knapp and the Neo-Chartalists diminish as one critically examines Knapp's writings. Therefore, the claim that MMT is based on Knapp should be rejected. |
| Keywords: | Neo-Chartalism, Georg Friedrich Knapp, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), Real Bills Doctrine, Fiscal Theory of the Price Level |
| JEL: | B31 E42 B50 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340197 |