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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Timothy Aerts; Ronald Heijmans; Violeta Vuletic; Jan Paulick |
| Abstract: | Decentralised finance data presents a distinctive paradox: while every data point is publicly recorded and accessible, deriving meaningful insights is obscured by the scale, fragmentation and complexity of the ecosystem. Key metrics illustrate that the rapidly evolving DeFi ecosystem introduces unique challenges for economic and financial research in accurately capturing financial activity in DeFi. These challenges stem from protocol architecture and the technical execution of transactions that complicate deriving economic meaning. Leveraging blockchain data for Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron, the paper illustrates three structural sources of measurement divergences: (1) the economically meaningful aggregation of Bitcoin transaction values, (2) the challenge of programmability and proliferation of spurious smart contracts and (3) comparability of use cases across different chains, exemplified by stablecoins. While the examples relate to specific chains and layers of technical execution, the measurement challenges generalise to all blockchains and DeFi ecosystems relying on a similar technical underpinning. We propose measurement approaches based on granular, databounded estimates that incorporate explicit assumptions, technical classification and disaggregation to align technical execution with economic meaning. The paper demonstrates that, despite the transparency of public blockchains, widely used indicators of cryptoasset and DeFi activity are highly dependent on methodological choices and underlying assumptions that warrant careful interpretation. The findings imply that on-chain indicators should be treated as noisy approximations rather than direct measures of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | cryptoassets; stablecoins; blockchain; decentralised finance; decentralised exchanges; smart contracts; measurement; Bitcoin; Ethereum; Tron |
| JEL: | C81 E42 G15 G23 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:870 |
| By: | Keith Hazen (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Rutgers University); Julapa Jagtiani (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Loretta J. Mester (Wharton School of Business, University of Pennsylvania and Griswold Center for Economic Policy Studies, Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Using transaction-level data for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) matched to public “Whale Alert†signals, we examine how large-scale cryptocurrency trades shape market microstructure. Specifically, we test whether whale transactions alter the composition of active non-whale participants, trigger leader-follower herd behavior, and elevate short-term return volatility. We document a stark divergence between networks: Whale alerts heavily reshape (native) BTC participation by mobilizing previously inactive retail and institutional investors, whereas ETH and WBTC participant profiles remain highly stable on the Ethereum platform. Furthermore, non-whale investors exhibit strong leader-follower behavior in the BTC market — buying and selling in tandem with whale direction. This pattern is largely absent in the Ethereum ecosystem, except among the largest non-whale tranches. These behavioral dynamics directly mirror market stability: Whale alerts induce a brief 24-hour spike in BTC volatility (most acutely following WBTC alerts) but coincide with compressed volatility on the Ethereum platform. Additionally, these asymmetric market responses persisted across Ethereum’s transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. These findings indicate persistent informational and structural asymmetries between large and small digital-asset investors. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency, Ethereum, ETH, Bitcoin, WBTC, crypto whales, DeFi |
| JEL: | G14 G23 G28 G41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:358 |
| By: | William C. Dudley (Princeton University); Nellie Liang (Brookings Institution) |
| JEL: | E42 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:353 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper informs the Executive Board about recent developments in central bank digital currency (CBDC), and summarizes the key messages and findings from the third wave of CBDC virtual Handbook chapters published in November 2025. Both retail (rCBDC) and wholesale (wCBDC) CBDC explorations are advancing, with wholesale projects gaining prominence. Countries are in various stages of CBDC development, ranging from near-term issuance to pausing rCBDC efforts due to limited domestic needs. This set of six Handbook chapters covers macro-financial topics including the implications of rCBDCs for (1) financial stability and (2) payments competition; legal and regulatory themes such as (3) selected legal considerations and (4) financial integrity. It draws lessons from (5) payment ecosystem resilience in fragile and conflict-affected states for CBDC, and also sheds light on the emerging area of (6) tokenized reserves. The Handbook, financially supported by the Government of Japan, provides technical frameworks and guidance for policymakers especially in emerging markets, to assess CBDC’s potential and tradeoffs. It is not intended to evaluate CBDC’s overall appropriateness, which is left to policymakers given domestic circumstances. |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency; CBDC Virtual Handbook; macro-financial implications; competition; legal considerations; financial integrity; fragile and conflict-affected states; tokenized reserves; IMF staff; payment system resilience; IMF policy; transparency policy; IMF Policy; Central Bank digital currencies; Financial sector stability; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); International reserves; Global; South America; Central America; Caribbean; Southeast Asia; Pacific Islands; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–11–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfpps:2025/041 |
| By: | Gordon Y. Liao; Eswar S. Prasad; Tony Zhang |
| Abstract: | We show that the dollar remains dominant in most aspects of global finance. The euro and renminbi are competing in an increasingly fragmented second tier of currencies, leaving no clear rivals to the dollar. We study how financial innovation could reshape the international monetary system. In principle, innovation levels the playing field between countries, for instance by reducing the need for vehicle currencies to intermediate transactions between other currency pairs and by making it easier to acquire and trade foreign assets. We show that an alternative outcome is more likely. Innovations that reduce frictions in cross-border transactions, especially dollar-backed payment stablecoins and other forms of tokenization of money, could interact with relative market thickness to reinforce the dollar’s dominance. This outcome is not preordained but depends on other countries’ willingness to embrace innovations and strengthen their financial markets and regulatory frameworks. While unipolarity has many disadvantages, we show that in some circumstances multipolarity might result in greater global fragility at times of financial market stress. |
| JEL: | E42 E51 F33 F36 G15 G33 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35822 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo (Rutgers University and NBER); Carolyn A. Wilkins (Princeton University and Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the history of private money to assess the conditions under which stablecoins could function safely at scale and what their growth may imply for U.S. monetary power. Historical systems of private money in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland show that par circulation depended on institutional arrangements rather than payment technology. Drawing on the monetary history of private money, convertibility, and international currencies, the paper identifies five foundations for scalable private money: credible convertibility, high quality and transparent backing, a uniform regulatory perimeter, par clearing infrastructure, and credible crisis management and loss allocation. Stablecoins may improve settlement speed, programmability, and cross-border access, but they do not remove these requirements. Applying this framework to contemporary stablecoins and the GENIUS Act, the paper finds that the Act addresses several of these foundations more fully than others, with crisis management and cross-border coordination less fully developed. Dollar stablecoins could extend the reach of dollar settlement, but historical experience reviewed here suggests that whether this strengthens the dollar system depends both on the institutional framework supporting stablecoins and on the deeper foundations of U.S. monetary dominance: confidence in U.S. institutions, fiscal capacity, monetary credibility, and the rule of law. |
| Keywords: | Stablecoins, digital money, private money, commitment, coordination, crisis management, international role of the dollar, dollar dominance, cross-border cooperation, rules, regulations, rails |
| JEL: | E42 E44 G15 N20 N40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:359 |
| By: | Michael D Bordo (Rutgers University and NBER); Cecile Bastidon (U. Toulon & CAC-IXXI Complex Systems Institute, Lyon, and OFCE-Sciences Po, Paris) |
| Abstract: | We propose stress tests based on an original International Monetary System (IMS) model with regime switchings. The model is calibrated for nine reference currencies from the beginning of the Classical Gold Standard to the present. Regime switchings in currency dominance are related to combinations of conditions on a multidimensional environment variable that includes five classes of shocks: technology; development; monetary, financial and fiscal institutions; democracy and conflicts; and the regulatory environment. We provide an original database of events for these five classes of shocks, which is used for calibration. The calibration highlights the important role of the democracy and conflicts component in regime switchings. The calibrated model is then used to perform stress tests on the current prospects of currency dominance for a broad set of scenarios. A salient result from the scenarios we tested is that the dominance of the US dollar is at most marginally affected. No other currency emerges as a major player, suggesting strong inertia in the system’s current centripetal dynamics. |
| Keywords: | International monetary system; Currency dominance; Democracy; Conflicts; Geopolitics; Monetary and financial graphs; Non-linear modeling; Conditional Markov chains |
| JEL: | C3 C82 E42 F33 G15 N2 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:355 |
| By: | Miguel Risco (IGIER, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Interoperability has been proposed to make social media contestable. But platforms are no longer purely network-based: personalization algorithms select much of what users see beyond their network, and an interoperability mandate opens the network but not the discovery layer. We study two platforms, each allocating resources between its network and discovery layers. A reciprocal mandate can raise the leading platform's size even if it is more productive in both, because its comparative advantage in discovery makes the challenger the network specialist, whose specialty the mandate opens. This effect can reverse once investment adjusts. Opening only the leader's network lowers its size, so any increase in concentration under a reciprocal mandate comes from opening the challenger's network. Concentration, challenger profit and user surplus can diverge. Whether recommendation technology, now largely driven by artificial intelligence, becomes a commodity or a moat determines whether the mandate reaches the source of the leader's advantage. |
| Keywords: | interoperability; social media; discovery; recommender systems; platform competition |
| JEL: | L13 L41 L51 L86 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Ehsan Sabzizadeh (Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands); Ulrich Laitenberger (Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands); Florian Pethig (Tilburg University, Tilburg, Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Platforms often justify new rules as consumer protection. When such a rule governs infrastructure that rival marketplaces depend on, it can make trading on those rivals riskier while leaving the platform's own marketplace unchanged, and can thus work against platform leakage. We study Valve's Trade Protection policy of July 2025, which made peer-to-peer transfers of Counter-Strike~2 items reversible for seven days while exempting purchases on Steam's own Community Market; third-party marketplaces complete every sale through such a transfer while settling the payment on their own platforms. Using item-week data from Steam and two third-party marketplaces, CSFloat and MarketCSGO, we estimate a difference-in-differences model that compares trading around the policy date with the same calendar weeks in 2024. Trading volume on the third-party marketplaces fell by about half and did not return to its pre-policy level within our window, while Steam's number of trades did not rise. Both results hold in a regression discontinuity in time, and the Steam result also holds when other Steam games serve as controls. Steam's turnover, however, rose by 18 to 24\%, with volume gains concentrated among high-price items and items with a high pre-policy share of third-party trading. The policy thus shifted high-value trading toward the focal platform, while much of the lost third-party trading was not absorbed by Steam. |
| Keywords: | Platform governance, digital marketplace, platform leakage, cross-platform spillovers |
| JEL: | D43 L22 L86 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2607 |
| By: | Dante Donati; Lena Song |
| Abstract: | Online comment sections let a small number of vocal individuals reach far beyond their own networks. We conduct a large-scale field experiment on Facebook that randomizes the presence and stance of comments beneath posts for a racial justice organization, reaching around one million U.S. users. Opposing comments increase reactions, comments, and link clicks by 15-43 percent relative to no comments, whereas supportive comments have little effect. A complementary survey experiment shows that similar opposing comments make attitudes less progressive and reduce donations to the organization. Through a common feature of online platforms, the vocal few can exert outsized influence. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.32880 |
| By: | Juan Camilo Castillo (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and NBER); Alejandro Sabal (Department of Economics, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois); Jaume Vives-i-Bastida (Department of Economics, New York University, New York, New York) |
| Abstract: | Delivery platforms provide an easy way for small restaurants to reach a large customer base with little upfront investment. However, small restaurants often face high commissions, while large, anchor restaurants receive preferential rates. We study competition in the delivery app industry and the economic forces behind this market structure. We develop a model in which platforms set commissions for small restaurants and negotiate over listing and commissions with anchor restaurants. Restaurants then set prices, and consumers choose which platforms to install and which restaurants to order from. We estimate our model using order-level data from a major European delivery app. We then run counterfactual simulations to understand what drives high commissions, measure how surplus is split among market participants, and evaluate the effects of additional platform entry. |
| Keywords: | delivery platforms; two-sided markets; bargaining; exclusivity; anchor restaurants |
| JEL: | L14 L83 L86 C78 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Virginie Terraza (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier, uni.lu - Université du Luxembourg = University of Luxembourg = Universität Luxemburg); Aslı Boru İpek (Kütahya Dumlupinar University = Kütahya Dumlupınar Üniversitesi [Kütahya, Turquie]) |
| Abstract: | This study proposes a multi-stage approach to modelling dependencies using Vector Autoregression (VAR), Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network (NAR-NN) models, and copulas. This paper aims to assess the dynamic dependency structure between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets, considering regime changes and safe-haven properties. The proposed methodology integrates change point detection with copula-based conditional correlation Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models to identify structural breaks and nonlinear dependencies between regimes. A sequential change point procedure based on fast signal segmentation is employed to detect structural changes. According to this study, cryptocurrencies and traditional assets exhibit regimedependent dependence. It was also determined that during periods of market stress, this dependency significantly increases. This paper has significant implications for portfolio diversification, risk management, and the role of digital assets in financial markets. Furthermore, this proposed methodology contributes to the literature by capturing nonlinear, time-dependent, and regime-dependent dependency structures. |
| Keywords: | 62M10, 68T07, neural network MSC: 91G15, DCC-GARCH family models, VAR, copula, change point detection, financial markets, interconnections, interconnections financial markets change point detection copula VAR DCC-GARCH family models neural network MSC: 91G15 62M10 68T07 |
| Date: | 2026–09–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05752791 |
| By: | Rachid Maghniwi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat); Mustapha Oukassi (UM5 - Université mohamed 5, Rabat) |
| Abstract: | his research investigates the determinants of Open Banking adoption intention amongMoroccan banking clients. Drawing on a sequential explanatory mixed-methods design—aquantitative survey of 500 clients in the Rabat-Salé-Kénitraregion and 25 semi-structuredexpert interviews—the study develops and validates the UTAUT-OBM model, an extensionof UTAUT2 that raises institutional trust and perceived risk to the status of direct determinants.Structural equation modelling confirmsthe six hypotheses and explains 57% of the variance inintention. Performance expectancy (β=0.48) and trust (β=0.40) are the main drivers, whileperceived risk (β=-0.31) and effort expectancy (β=-0.25) are the main barriers. A segmentationdistinguishes three profiles: enthusiasts (32%), cautious pragmatists (45%), and skepticalresisters (23%). As Open Banking is not yet deployed in Morocco, the dependent variableremains a stated intention rather than actual behaviour. The study offers propositions for futureresearch and outlines a responsible, inclusive deployment roadmap towards 2030. |
| Abstract: | Cette recherche examine les déterminants de l'intention d'adoption de l'Open Banking par les clients bancaires marocains. Mobilisant un design mixte séquentiel explicatif — une enquête quantitative auprès de 500 clients de la région Rabat-Salé-Kénitra et 25 entretiens semi-directifs d'experts — l'étude propose et valide le modèle UTAUT-OBM, extension d'UTAUT2 érigeant la confiance institutionnelle et le risque perçu en déterminants directs. La modélisation par équations structurelles confirme les six hypothèses et explique 57 % de la variance de l'intention. La performance attendue (β=0, 48) et la confiance (β=0, 40) en sont les principaux leviers, tandis que le risque perçu (β=-0, 31) et l'effort attendu (β=-0, 25) constituent les freins majeurs. Une segmentation distingue trois profils : enthousiastes (32 %), pragmatiques prudents (45 %) et réfractaires méfiants (23 %). L'Open Banking n'étant pas encore déployé au Maroc, la variable étudiée demeure une intention déclarée, et non un comportement effectif. L'étude formule des propositions à tester dans de futures recherches et esquisse une feuille de route de déploiement responsable et inclusif à l'horizon 2030. |
| Keywords: | Moroccan banking sector, perceived risk, institutional trust, Open Banking, adoption technologique, confiance institutionnelle, risque perçu, secteur bancaire marocain Open Banking, technology adoption |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05765188 |
| By: | Khabyuk, Olexiy (Department of Economics of the Hochschule Düsseldorf University of Applied Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Sammelband versammelt fünf Hausarbeiten aus dem Bachelor-Modul E-Business im Studiengang „Kommunikations- und Multimediamanagement“ an der Hochschule Düsseldorf. Das Rahmenthema des Moduls lautete gesellschaftsgefährdende Wirkungen digitaler Geschäftsmodelle. In den Arbeiten wurden zunächst Geschäftsmodelle SHEIN, Amazon KDP, Teads, Character.AI und Suno AI beschrieben und ihre Wettbewerbsfähigkeit untersucht sowie anschließend ihre gesellschaftlichen Wirkungen abgeleitet. Wiederkehrende Befunde sind Verweildauer- und Bindungsmaximierung als Geschäftslogik, Intransparenz von Plattformmechanismen, Abhängigkeiten der Marktgegenseite, Verlagerung von Risiken und Kosten auf Nutzerinnen, Kreative und Gesellschaft. |
| Abstract: | The edited volume brings together five term papers from the undergraduate module “E-Business” in the degree programme “Communication and Multimedia Management” at the University of Applied Sciences Düsseldorf. The module’s overarching theme was the socially harmful effects of digital business models. The contributions first describe the business models of SHEIN, Amazon KDP, Teads, Character.AI and Suno AI, examine their competitiveness, and then derive their societal implications. Recurring findings include the maximization of engagement and user retention as a core business logic, the opacity of platform mechanism, dependencies of the opposite market side, and the shifting of risks and costs onto users, creators and society at large. |
| Keywords: | Digitale Geschäftsmodelle, Plattformregulierung, mehrseitige Märkte, Dark Patterns, Native Advertising, digital business models, multi-sided markets, platform regulation |
| JEL: | D40 M14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ddf:wpaper:64 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Note provides guidance to staff on the inclusion of financial integrity and anti-money laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) issues in surveillance, financial sector assessment programs (FSAPs), and Use of Fund Resources (UFR), updating previous guidance issued in 2012. Specifically, in line with the 2023 Review of the Fund’s AML/CFT Strategy, the Guidance Note provides a framework for and illustrates how staff can deepen the integration of financial integrity and AML/CFT issues, based on staff’s enhanced understanding of money laundering (ML), financial crimes, and terrorism financing (TF) risks and of their macroeconomic and financial stability impact. |
| Keywords: | Anti-money laundering; Article IV consultations; Balance of payments; Combating the financing of terrorism; Financial system stability assessment; International monetary system; Money laundering; Surveillance; IMF staff; CFT policy; CFT assessment; CFT issue; CFT strategy; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Financial sector stability; Financial sector; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfpps:2026/022 |
| By: | Michelle W. Bowman |
| Date: | 2026–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:103866 |
| By: | Christopher J. Waller |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:103856 |
| By: | Michelle W. Bowman |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:103828 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This working paper explores the underlying reasons for shifts in the gold landscape and the possibility that these developments could signal deeper ongoing transformations in the global economy, with broader implications across economic sectors and financial markets. This paper provides an overview of these signals and emerging trends and identifies four futures of gold scenarios for global markets and payment systems, illicit financial flows, geofinance, economic and sustainable development, critical mineral supply chains and responsible business conduct. |
| Date: | 2026–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dafaad:51-en |