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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Mathilde Dufouleur |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of cryptocurrency regulation on price deviations in the Bitcoin market, focusing on regulatory implementations rather than announcements. I construct a unique database of regulations across 28 countries since 2009, categorized into seven types, and analyse Bitcoin price data since September 2013. Our findings indicate that the Law of One Price does not hold in the Bitcoin market. Contrary to initial conjectures, more regulated markets exhibit higher price convergence with the USD benchmark. According to the type of regulation, this result is mixed. Regulations enhancing reliability and transparency, such as the expansion of securities laws, banking and payment regulations, and the implementation of regulatory sandboxes foster price convergence. In contrast, partial bans—primarily targeting banks—exacerbate price divergence, underscoring the significant role of financial institutions in the Bitcoin market. Additionally, anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) laws reduce local prices regardless of USD price level, suggesting the cryptoasset's use in illicit activities.. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency, Cryptocurrency Regulation, Price Convergence, Law of One Price, Financial Institutions, Anti-Money Laundering, Regulatory Impact |
| JEL: | G15 G18 E42 K22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1052 |
| By: | Abderrahim Roukaa (Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales – Agdal Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc); Karima Ghazouani (Faculté des Sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales – Agdal Université Mohammed V de Rabat, Maroc) |
| Abstract: | Although financial technologies, or FinTech, are widely recognized for their potential to improve access to financial services in emerging markets, the structural mechanisms through which an ecosystem transforms this technological promise into effective financial inclusion remain insufficiently understood. This issue is particularly relevant in North Africa, where institutional frameworks are undergoing rapid transformation, while academic research on this topic remains relatively limited. This article addresses this gap by developing an integrative and multilevel conceptual framework that articulates six core constructs, ranging from the regulatory environment to the socio-economic impact. Drawing on a theoretical synthesis grounded in four foundational streams: the FinTech ecosystems, open innovation, financial inclusion, and ecosystem theory particularly through the contributions of Lee and Shin (2018), Chesbrough (2003), Sarma and Pais (2011), and Adner (2017), the proposed model positions open innovation as a central mediating mechanism. It represents the conceptual missing link through which the meso-level structure of the ecosystem is converted into effective technological development. Anchored in Morocco's paradoxical institutional landscape, characterized by relatively robust financial infrastructure, persistent financial exclusion, and a strong predominance of cash-based payments, the proposed framework formulates nine testable research propositions. The contribution of this article is threefold. First, it bridges two theoretical perspectives that are often examined separately: the ecosystem approach and open innovation. Second, it brings the still underexplored North African context into contemporary debates on FinTech and financial inclusion. Third, it proposes an original conceptual model that can be operationalized and empirically tested in future research, particularly through partial least squares structural equation modeling, or PLS-SEM. |
| Abstract: | Bien que les technologies financières (FinTech) soient reconnues pour leur potentiel à améliorer l'accès aux services financiers dans les marchés émergents, les mécanismes structurels par lesquels un écosystème convertit cette promesse technologique en inclusion réelle demeurent une « boîte noire ». Cette interrogation est particulièrement pertinente en Afrique du Nord, où les cadres institutionnels connaissent des transformations rapides, tandis que les travaux académiques consacrés à cette question restent relativement limités. Cet article comble ces lacunes en développant un cadre conceptuel intégrateur multiniveaux qui articule six construits cardinaux, de l'environnement réglementaire à l'impact socio-économique. Mobilisant une démarche de synthèse théorique adossée à quatre courants séminaux (Lee & Shin, 2018 ; Chesbrough, 2003 ; Sarma & Pais, 2011 ; Adner, 2017), notre modèle positionne l'innovation ouverte comme le mécanisme médiateur crucial, le chaînon manquant qui convertit la structure méso de l'écosystème en développement technologique effectif. Ancré dans le paysage institutionnel paradoxal du Maroc caractérisé par des infrastructures solides, mais une exclusion persistante et une forte prédominance de la culture de cash, le cadre formalise neuf propositions de recherche testables. La contribution de cet article est triple. Premièrement, il rapproche deux perspectives théoriques souvent traitées séparément: l'approche par les écosystèmes et celle de l'innovation ouverte. Deuxièmement, il inscrit le cas nord-africain, encore peu étudié, dans les débats contemporains sur les FinTechs et l'inclusion financière. Troisièmement, il propose un modèle conceptuel susceptible d'être testé empiriquement au moyen de la modélisation par équations structurelles selon l'approche PLS-SEM pour les futures recherches empiriques. |
| Keywords: | emerging markets., conceptual framework, financial inclusion, open innovation, FinTech ecosystem, marchés émergents, cadre conceptuel, inclusion financière, innovation ouverte, écosystème FinTech, écosystème FinTech innovation ouverte inclusion financière cadre conceptuel marchés émergents. Classification JEL : G21 G23 G28 O31 O33 O55 FinTech ecosystem open innovation financial inclusion conceptual framework emerging markets. JEL Classification: G21 G23 G28 O31 O33 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05691508 |
| By: | Goldbach, Stefan; Nitsch, Volker |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a monetary experiment, the adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in El Salvador in 2021, to analyse the impact of digital currencies on international capital flows. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that, instead of making transfers easier, El Salvador’s official cross-border financial activity has decreased after the monetary change. This finding may reflect an increase in uncertainty. However, it is also in line with findings that link digital assets to illegal activity as previously officially recorded financial transfers may have been replaced by unrecorded activities. |
| Date: | 2026–08–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:161818 |
| By: | Benjamin Hemingway (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Rapid innovation in digital payments and the advent of new forms of privately issued digital money have increased interest in the concept of singleness of money. This paper provides an analytical framework for studying the singleness of money consisting of a three-period banking model where banks choose both the unit of account of their debt and whether it can be used as a medium of exchange. The paper suggests that small deviations from singleness may still be consistent with the efficient allocation, consistent with the fact that small deviations from par already arise today (for example, ATM withdrawal fees). However, inefficient equilibria are more likely to occur if the newly introduced forms of digital money are issued by private entities with distinct business models from incumbent financial institutions. The model also highlights the stabilising roles of both cash and central bank reserves in promoting the singleness of money. Reserves ensure issuers share a consistent asset base, while cash provides a backstop by enabling interoperability through central bank money. |
| Keywords: | Banking;money;singleness;unit of account. |
| JEL: | E41 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023296 |
| By: | James Duffy (Bank of England); James Sanders (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | In February 2022, the UK’s instant payment scheme, Faster Payments, increased its transaction value limit from £250, 000 to £1 million. This provided payments in this value range an alternative means to settle. Using a range of methodologies, we study the subsequent impact on the number of payments settled through CHAPS, the UK’s high-value payment scheme that settles payments on a real-time gross basis. We find strong evidence of substitution away from CHAPS to Faster Payments. Specifically, CHAPS volume between £250, 000 and £1 million is, on average, between 10.7%–13.7% lower than if Faster Payments had not increased their transaction limit. Furthermore, we find substitution is far greater for customer credit transfers and lower-value payments. These results provide some of the first clear empirical evidence of meaningful substitution from real-time gross settlement schemes to instant payment schemes, raising important implications for payment system operators and the future role of different settlement models. |
| Keywords: | Payment systems;payment substitution;instant payments;settlement. |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G20 |
| Date: | 2026–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023302 |
| By: | Marie-Hélène Felt; Saika Pacouloute; Angelika Welte |
| Abstract: | The Methods-of-Payment (MOP) survey provides key insights into Canadians’ cash management and payment behaviour. In 2025, more than three in four adults report keeping cash on hand. Perceptions of cash remain positive and stable, and most Canadians do not plan to stop using it. At the same time, several indicators in the 2025 data suggest that patterns of cash use may be changing. Contactless card payments dominate in-person payments, with growing use of mobile devices. |
| Keywords: | Money and payments; Cash and bank notes; Retail payments |
| JEL: | D D8 D83 E E4 E41 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-36 |
| By: | Akinpelu, Simeon Funminiyi; Ese, Igbinosun Friday |
| Abstract: | This study examined the taxation of the digital economy in Nigeria through a conceptual review, focusing on challenges, prospects, and policy implications of taxing digital activities including e-commerce, fintech, streaming services, online advertising, and social media commerce. The purpose was to critically analyse how Nigeria’s legal and regulatory frameworks, administrative capacities, and technological tools interact to facilitate revenue mobilisation from digital economic activities. A qualitative conceptual research design was employed, relying entirely on secondary data from academic journals, government reports, Finance Acts, and international frameworks, with data analysed through content and thematic analysis and supported by descriptive statistics from government and global sources. Findings revealed that while Nigeria’s digital economy has expanded rapidly, compliance with tax obligations remains moderate, with informal platforms and cross border transactions limiting effective revenue collection. Legal recognition of significant economic presence is crucial for capturing digital taxes, yet enforcement gaps and limited technological monitoring hinder compliance, with fintech platforms integrated into formal banking systems showing higher adherence than informal social media commerce. The study contributes a structured conceptual framework linking digital activities, regulatory clarity, administrative enforcement, and revenue outcomes, while identifying critical policy and practical gaps. The findings imply that improving technological monitoring, strengthening legal frameworks, and enhancing stakeholder engagement are essential for increasing compliance, offering insights for policymakers and laying the foundation for future research on sustainable digital taxation strategies in Nigeria. |
| Date: | 2026–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:c2ga9_v1 |
| By: | Gert Bijnens; John Hutchinson; Arthur Saint-Guilhem |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of cryptocurrency regulation on price deviations in the Bitcoin market, focusing on regulatory implementations rather than announcements. I construct a unique database of regulations across 28 countries since 2009, categorized into seven types, and analyse Bitcoin price data since September 2013. Our findings indicate that the Law of One Price does not hold in the Bitcoin market. Contrary to initial conjectures, more regulated markets exhibit higher price convergence with the USD benchmark. According to the type of regulation, this result is mixed. Regulations enhancing reliability and transparency, such as the expansion of securities laws, banking and payment regulations, and the implementation of regulatory sandboxes foster price convergence. In contrast, partial bans—primarily targeting banks—exacerbate price divergence, underscoring the significant role of financial institutions in the Bitcoin market. Additionally, anti-money laundering/countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) laws reduce local prices regardless of USD price level, suggesting the cryptoasset's use in illicit activities.. |
| Keywords: | Labour Hoarding, Monetary Policy Transmission, Firm-Level Heterogeneity, Employment Adjustment, Financial Constraints |
| JEL: | E52 J23 E32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1053 |
| By: | Langenbucher, Katja |
| Abstract: | How should legislators and regulators cope with technological innovation in the field of financial services? Move quickly, top-down, to provide legal certainty - or let things develop bottom-up, with decentralised legislators and agency initiatives preparing the ground? Over the last years, stablecoins, i.e., crypto assets that are framed as payment instruments and promise stability through a peg to underlying reserves, 2 have been a paradigm example for regulatory strategies and cultural differences between the U.S. and the EU. The U.S. has been inclined to take a bottom-up engagement, coupled with a distrust of government intervention, while the EU was more disposed towards quickly moving forward with comprehensive regulation, aimed at insulating financial consumers from anticipated harm. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:343097 |
| By: | Jia Qi Xiao; Jackson Reid; Joey Daniels |
| Abstract: | Timely and granular spending data are essential for understanding turning points in the economy. In this paper, we introduce a measure of account-level credit card spending, constructed using microdata on credit card balances and payments from TransUnion’s anonymized credit bureau database. Our measure is available at a higher frequency and with much greater granularity than other metrics: we capture monthly spending for approximately 80% of adults in Canada with the potential to view changes in the economy with a lag of less than one month, and can disaggregate spending by age, geographic location and credit history. When linked to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions’ real estate secured lending database, we can further examine spending by regulatory mortgage underwriting characteristics, supporting agile monitoring of granular spending dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Financial system; Financial stability and systemic risk; Financial system regulation and oversight; Household and business credit; Monetary policy; Real economy and forecasting |
| JEL: | C C5 C55 C8 C81 D D1 D14 E E2 E21 E3 E32 G G5 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-38 |
| By: | Awotade, Joshua Adeyemi; Osemeke, Monday |
| Abstract: | This study analyses how monetary entrepreneurship, multi-stakeholder governance and institutionalisation shape the inclusive-growth outcomes of digital complementary currencies in Nigeria. Adopting an interpretivist approach and a qualitative multiple-case design, the study compares three settings: the state-driven eNaira, fintech-driven platforms and community-driven financial institutions. Data were obtained from semi-structured interviews and documents and analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. The findings demonstrate that monetary entrepreneurship is a multi-actor and co-produced endeavour involving state, market and community actors operating within a particular institutional context. Multi-stakeholder governance mediates system design, coordination and adoption, while institutionalisation influences legitimacy, sustainability and long-term impact. The study concludes that inclusive growth is an ecosystem outcome arising from the interaction of innovation, governance and institutional development, rather than from technological innovation alone. It recommends coordinated governance and institutional alignment in using digital financial systems to support financial inclusion and inclusive development. |
| Date: | 2026–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x6tzn_v1 |
| By: | Michael King (Trinity College Dublin); Paolina Medina (University of Houston); Benjamin Radoc, Jr. (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Roland Umanan (Trinity Impact Evaluation Unit) |
| Abstract: | Digital credit—short-term, high-interest loans offered via mobile channels—has surged over the past decade, reaching millions in the developing world. However, much like payday loans in developed economies, it remains unclear whether its liquidity benefits outweigh the risks of overindebtedness and financial distress. Using an online discrete choice experiment with digital credit users in the Philippines, we examine how disclosures about price and non-price attributes affect consumer choice. We find that standardizing contract terms across products leads consumers to choose loans with lower interest rates and higher probability of approval at the expense of longer time to disburse and higher documentation requirements. Presenting interest rates in effective (compounded) or nominal terms makes no difference but ranking by a selected attribute leads to a more favorable product choice. Typical consumers are responsive to disclosures about late payment fees but not overconfident consumers. We argue that overconfidence can reduce the effectiveness of attention-based interventions and consumers’ revealed risk profiles. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 G41 G51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bhd:dpaper:202509 |
| By: | Lührsen, René; Heimstädt, Maximilian; Gegenhuber, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Open digital infrastructure (ODI) forms the backbone of our interconnected society, yet it faces serious sustainability challenges. This report explores how public support can be organized, using Germany's Sovereign Tech Agency (STA) as a case study. It reflects on both the potential and the tensions of government involvement in decentralized ODI communities. Intermediaries like the STA can help cultivate a sovereign digital commons. In doing so, they can contribute to safeguarding the foundations for a pluralistic, democratic, and open digital society. A sovereign ODI ecosystem will be crucial in breaking the grip of Big Tech, laying the foundations for real alternatives and strengthening those that already exist. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hbsfof:342447 |
| By: | Akinwehinmi, Oluwagbenga; Colen, Liesbeth; Caputo, Vincenzina |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404517 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo; Cécile Bastidon |
| Abstract: | We propose stress tests based on an original International Monetary System (IMS) model with regime switchings. The model is calibrated for nine reference currencies from the beginning of the Classical Gold Standard to the present. Regime switchings in currency dominance are related to combinations of conditions on a multidimensional environment variable that includes five classes of shocks: technology; development; monetary, financial and fiscal institutions; democracy and conflicts; and the regulatory environment. We provide an original database of events for these five classes of shocks, which is used for calibration. The calibration highlights the important role of the democracy and conflicts component in regime switchings. The calibrated model is then used to perform stress tests on the current prospects of currency dominance for a broad set of scenarios. A salient result from the scenarios we tested is that the dominance of the US dollar is at most marginally affected. No other currency emerges as a major player, suggesting strong inertia in the system’s current centripetal dynamics. |
| JEL: | C3 C82 E42 F33 G15 N2 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35647 |
| By: | Riccardo Caruso |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin inverse options, traded on the Deribit exchange and settled in the underlying cryptocurrency rather than in fiat currency, combine extreme and genuinely rough volatility dynamics with a non-linear, currency-dependent payoff structure. This paper develops and empirically validates a pricing and calibration framework for these instruments based on the rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model of Bayer, Friz and Gatheral (2016). We adapt the rBergomi dynamics to the inverse payoff max(S_T - K, 0)/S_T, and implement and compare three computational pipelines that differ in the simulation scheme for the driving fractional Brownian motion (coarse-grid Cholesky vs. the Hybrid Scheme of Bennedsen et al., 2017) and in the Monte Carlo pricing estimator (plain log-Euler vs. the Mixed Estimator of McCrickerd and Pakkanen, 2018). The model is calibrated to thirty implied volatility surfaces extracted from Deribit trade data between May 2022 and March 2025, spanning seven major market-stress events and nine baseline regimes stratified by volatility level. The Hybrid and Mixed pipeline is simultaneously the most accurate (mean unweighted RMSE 22.83 percentage points, versus 41.76 pp for the Cholesky and Euler benchmark) and the fastest (17 seconds per snapshot, a 20-fold speed-up). The calibrated Hurst exponent is consistently close to the lower bound of the search space (H approximately equal to 0.01--0.06 in most regimes), confirming that Bitcoin's volatility is genuinely rough, and calibration error scales approximately linearly with the level of at-the-money implied volatility (Pearson r = 0.89). |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.27575 |
| By: | Nadav A. Kitron; Jonathan M. Wengrowicz |
| Abstract: | At 15-minute horizons, directional mean reversion is far stronger and more pervasive in cryptocurrency markets than in US equities: scored under one matched, strictly out-of-sample protocol, 90% of 183 Binance pairs carry significant directional reversal against 2.7% of 187 US stocks and ETFs, in every focal coin-year since 2021. The signal lives in signs, not magnitudes: lag-one return autocorrelation is near zero on the major coins, yet simply betting against the previous candle captures most of the effect. US-listed funds whose net asset value is a crypto or metal price inherit their underlying's reversal, including its absence, from their first months of trading; stocks merely correlated with the same underlyings inherit nothing: descriptive evidence that a wrapper's tape reads like the process it wraps, not the venue it prints on. On the originating tape, the reversal concentrates after moves driven by aggressive taker flow and grows with flow intensity, while the order-book depth a move consumes conditions nothing: a conditioning consistent with compensated liquidity provision, not a test that selects it. The gross edge peaks near 1.3 bp per trade against a 5 bp round-trip cost: large enough to detect, too small to clear benchmark spot capture costs. The contrast survives an artifact battery, an exact permutation null, and a frozen six-month holdout, with a class-mean AUC gap of +0.031 as designed and +0.011 (95% CI [+0.008, +0.014]) under the most conservative accounting, clear of zero either way. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.21888 |
| By: | Lamya Bouziani (laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations - ENCG Kenitra); Jalal Azegagh (laboratoire de recherche en sciences de gestion des organisations - ENCG Kenitra) |
| Abstract: | This research addresses the theoretical fragmentation of the crowdfunding field by proposing an integrative architecture through a theory-oriented systematic literature review. Despite its rapid expansion, crowdfunding research remains siloed across various disciplines, often lacking a unified conceptual framework to explain the complex interactions between project owners, backers, and platforms. Drawing on a corpus of 35 high-quality studies selected from Scopus and Web of Science over the period 2016-2025, and filtered according to ABS 3+ and SJR Q1-Q2 quality thresholds, this study employs a Theory-Mechanism-Outcome (TMO) coding protocol to categorize existing research into three core theoretical configurations: signaling mechanisms, social capital dynamics, and social exchange processes. The review-based synthesis identifies that crowdfunding success is not determined by a single factor but by the convergence of "Relational Validation" and "Digital Legitimacy." The proposed integrative architecture demonstrates how Signaling Theory, Social Capital Theory, and Social Exchange Theory interact to create a unique socio-technical trust ecosystem. The originality of this study lies in three contributions: a theoretical reclassification of the crowdfunding literature through the TMO framework, an integrative multi-level conceptual architecture, and a structured research agenda addressing unresolved tensions and underexplored institutional contexts, particularly in emerging economies. This framework provides a contextsensitive understanding of how intangible assets are converted into financial credibility in the digital age, especially within environments characterized by institutional voids. |
| Keywords: | Crowdfunding |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05671913 |
| By: | Xu Lu; Yang Song; Yao Zeng |
| Abstract: | How slow are bank transfers, and how do transfer delays affect deposit demand? Using transaction-level data from millions of depositors, we measure transfer delays by matching debits and credits across accounts held by the same depositor. Shorter delays correlate with more transfers and lower balances. Exploiting county-level exposure to Zelle’s staggered rollout, we find that faster payments reduce delays and deposit growth. Calibrating a deposit-management model, we find that transfer delays raise deposit demand, and the magnitude of this effect varies with interest rates and consumption volatility. Payment frictions therefore shape transactional deposit demand and monetary transmission. |
| JEL: | E41 E42 E52 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35638 |
| By: | Dr Larissa Marioni; Mary O'Mahony; Patrick Serberis |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new approach to quantifying digital skill demands using job platform data, focusing on regions of the UK, and on industries identified by the UK government as of strategic importance. The analysis shows a concentration of the highest level digital skills required for innovation in regions around London known as the Golden Triangle, but skills required for 'business as usual' are important everywhere and growing over time. Job adverts requiring AI related skills are even more concentrated. Areas outside the Golden Triangle, especially in the second tier cities, are more likely to hire non‐graduates to fill their digital skills needs. High‐level digital skills are in much greater demand in strategic industries than in other sectors. |
| Keywords: | digital skills, regions, strategic industries, job platform data |
| JEL: | J6 O4 R1 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrd:585 |
| By: | Sun, Jiayu; Caputo, Vincenzina; Van Loo, Ellen |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404516 |
| By: | Sami Es-snibi; Mehdi Guelmamen |
| Abstract: | We ask whether high-frequency political communication shapes the level of conditional volatility, its persistence, or the probability of transiting between volatility states. The question is addressed with hourly Bitcoin prices and the universe of Donald Trump’s social media posts from August 2017 to February 2026, scoring the directional tone of market-relevant posts and entering it as an exogenous regressor in single-regime and Markov-switching variance equations. Three results follow. First, the tone coefficient is recovered only in log-linear specifications, where more positive communication coincides with lower conditional volatility and adversarial communication with higher volatility; additive specifications place the estimate at the boundary of the admissible parameter space. Second, a two-state Markov-switching EGARCH identifies a calm and a turbulent state with expected durations of eight and four hours, so that regime alternation is an intraday phenomenon that daily aggregation cannot resolve. Third, the tone effect is proportionally identical across the two states, and a fourteen-month interruption in communication leaves regime alternation essentially unchanged. Political communication thus modulates volatility intensity within whichever state prevails, without governing transitions between states. |
| Keywords: | Political communication; cryptocurrency volatility; sentiment analysis; Markovswitching GARCH; regime transitions; high-frequency data |
| JEL: | C58 E44 G15 G17 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-27 |
| By: | Andrea Vismara; Rafael Prieto-Curiel; Rosie Hayward |
| Abstract: | In 2025, bilateral foreign aid was reduced by 23%, affecting more than 130 aid recipient countries. We assess whether debt service relief or remittance increases can match the USD 26 billion in aid losses. Using a network-shock model calibrated to bilateral donors' individual cuts, we estimate recipient-country aid losses and evaluate compensation feasibility in terms of annual debt service payments that would need to be cancelled and remittance capacity (the headroom between flows and a theoretical maximum in which every working-age migrant sends funds) mobilised to financially offset them. We find that 18% external debt service relief and 10% of remittance mobilisation could compensate half of the affected countries. However, some countries remain locked out of either or both mechanisms. A fundamental trade-off in the global financial architecture emerged for large aid-cut losers: countries positioned to benefit from debt service relief lack large international diaspora networks (limiting their capacity to increase remittances), while those with established diaspora channels face structural exclusion of traditional debt markets, rendering debt service relief ineffective. These insights introduce nuance in how alternative finance sources can replace foreign aid. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.21843 |
| By: | Axel Durand Semboung (Université de Douala, Faculté des Sciences Économiques et Gestion Appliquée, Douala, Cameroun); Vatis Christian Kemezang (Université de Douala, Faculté des Sciences Économiques et Gestion Appliquée, Douala, Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | Migrant remittances constitute a major source of external financing in Sub Saharan Africa, yet the mechanisms through which they contribute to inclusive growth remain insufficiently established. This study examines their relationship with inclusive growth and identifies the main transmission channels. The analysis uses a balanced panel of 33 Sub Saharan African countries observed from 2000 to 2022, comprising 665 country year observations. Inclusive growth is measured using a composite index incorporating economic and social dimensions. The empirical strategy relies on multiple mediation analysis estimated through sequential regressions. The main equations are estimated by ordinary least squares with HC3 robust standard errors. Inference on indirect effects is based on 1, 000 country clustered bootstrap replications and 95% percentile confidence intervals. The results show a positive and statistically significant association between remittances and inclusive growth (β = 0.252, p < 0.01). Among the mechanisms examined, only productive investment exhibits a significant indirect effect. Human capital, financial development, and tax revenue do not significantly transmit this relationship. These findings show that the contribution of remittances to inclusive growth depends on the channel through which these resources affect the economy. They therefore highlight the need for policies that encourage the allocation of remittance inflows toward productive investment to strengthen their contribution to more inclusive and sustainable development. |
| Abstract: | Les transferts de fonds des migrants constituent une source majeure de financement extérieur en Afrique subsaharienne, mais les mécanismes par lesquels ils contribuent à la croissance inclusive restent insuffisamment établis. Cette étude analyse leur relation avec la croissance inclusive et identifie les principaux canaux de transmission. L'analyse porte sur un panel équilibré de 33 pays d'Afrique subsaharienne observés entre 2000 et 2022, soit 665 observations pays années. La croissance inclusive est mesurée à l'aide d'un indice composite intégrant des dimensions économiques et sociales. La stratégie empirique repose sur une analyse de médiation multiple par régressions séquentielles. Les équations principales sont estimées par moindres carrés ordinaires avec erreurs standards robustes HC3. L'inférence sur les effets indirects repose sur un bootstrap par grappes au niveau des pays comportant 1 000 réplications et des intervalles de confiance percentile à 95 %. Les résultats montrent une association positive et statistiquement significative entre les transferts de fonds et la croissance inclusive (β = 0, 252 ; p < 0, 01). Parmi les mécanismes examinés, seul l'investissement productif présente un effet indirect significatif. Le capital humain, le développement financier et les recettes fiscales ne transmettent pas significativement cette relation. Ces résultats montrent que la contribution des transferts à la croissance inclusive dépend du canal par lequel ces ressources affectent l'économie et soulignent la nécessité de politiques favorisant leur orientation vers des investissements productifs. |
| Keywords: | I32, Transferts de fonds, Croissance inclusive, M41, Sub-Saharan Africa Classification JEL : F24, M41 Remittances, C33, Investissement productif, O55, O15, Afrique subsaharienne. JEL Classification : F24, Sub-Saharan Africa Classification JEL : F24 O15 O55 I32 C33 M41, Human Capital, Productive Investment, Inclusive Growth, Afrique subsaharienne. JEL Classification : F24 O15 O55 I32 C33 M41 Remittances, Capital humain |
| Date: | 2026–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05689191 |