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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Alan Chernoff; Julapa Jagtiani; Nathaniel Yoshida |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) on systemic liquidity across the Ethereum and Bitcoin markets, utilizing an event study approach that integrates on-chain wallet data, pricing, and financial metrics. By analyzing cryptocurrency market responses to key protocol and market-moving events, augmented by nonlinear volatility models, we identify distinct, chain-specific flight-to-safety behaviors. Our results show that USDT acts as a primary liquidity lifeline for Ethereum holders during stress, particularly among retail investors, whereas its role for Bitcoin holders is more muted and stabilizing. Notably, we find stronger flight-to-safety evidence in Wrapped Bitcoin (Ethereum-based) than in native Bitcoin, highlighting that USDT’s function is network dependent. These findings imply that effective regulatory frameworks must be differentiated, accounting for chain-specific liquidity, investor composition, and risk dynamics, as a uniform approach would likely be systematically miscalibrated. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency; Stablecoins; Bitcoin; Ethereum; Tether; Flight to safety; BTC; ETH; USDT |
| JEL: | G14 G23 G28 G41 |
| Date: | 2026–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103156 |
| By: | BEN CHEIKH, Nidhaleddine (ESSCA School of Management); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | Using a sample of 67 countries, this paper examines how financial inclusion shapes the transition to inclusive and sustainable growth. First, we analyze the heterogeneous and asymmetric effects of key determinants using panel quantile regression. The results show that financial inclusion, institutional quality, and ICT diffusion significantly affect inclusiveness only in the lower tail of the distribution. While financial inclusion and ICT diffusion appear detrimental, institutional quality promotes shared prosperity. Second, we explore a mediating effect using a non-linear panel threshold model. The findings highlight the role of financial inclusion in enhancing inclusive growth. Although ICT infrastructure negatively affects inclusiveness at low levels of financial inclusion, this relationship becomes positive beyond a certain threshold. These results suggest that policymakers should combine financial inclusion, governance quality, and ICT development to foster inclusive growth. |
| Keywords: | inclusive growth, financial inclusion, non-linear panel data modelling |
| JEL: | C23 O11 O16 O43 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18582 |
| By: | Rösl, Gerhard; Seitz, Franz |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the affordability of cash in an international context. After outlining why cash should remain a core component of a diversified payment mix within a resilient and efficient payment system, we discuss methodological challenges associated with measuring the costs of payment instruments and explain why consumers should ultimately be at the center of the analysis. The paper then reviews the existing literature on the costs of payment instruments and subsequently traces the cost structure across the entire cash cycle-from printers and mints to central banks, cash-in-transit companies, commercial banks, ATM operators, and merchants. Finally, we examine the regulatory frameworks, including cash usage limits and reporting requirements, and analyze their implications for cash demand and the sustainability of cash infrastructure. Building on these findings, the paper derives policy implications and practical recommendations for regulators and cash-cycle participants, emphasizing the need to keep cash affordable. |
| Keywords: | Cash, payments, costs, cash cycle, affordability |
| JEL: | E41 E51 E58 O57 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hawdps:340843 |
| By: | Boliang Lin; Ruixi Lin |
| Abstract: | The medium of exchange of the traditional economy is mainly the fiat currency of each country or region, and when cross-border transactions occur, they need to be settled according to the exchange rate. In the AI world, however, the medium of exchange tends to be a globally recognized currency. Especially when AI acts as an agent for cross-border capital pool and cross cyclical asset allocation, it needs a sound money that can resist the depreciation of fiat currency and store long-term value. Therefore, we propose a globally consensus and universally accepted monetary rule framework for the AI era. The devaluation of money runs through almost the whole process of history, from the weight reduction and purity decrease of metallic coin to the unanchored over-issuance of paper currency. Whether it is the periodic compulsory recoinage in medieval Europe or Gesell's stamp scrip, both are essentially mechanisms for taxing money holdings. Unlike Gesell's stamp scrip, Redeemable Self-Decaying/Devaluing Money (RSDM) is a tokenized commodity money. Its essential innovation is to fill the hole in the storage fee of metal coins through the self-devaluing of metal weight recorded on the deposit certificate (warehouse receipt) of metal coins. In a sense, RSDM is an innovative version of Jiaozi (a deposit receipt for base metal coin that emerged in Sichuan, China, about a thousand years ago). In this paper, we propose five forms of online and offline issuance of RSDM, providing a prototype for creating a globally recognized modern honest money. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.00340 |
| By: | Gerda Falkner |
| Abstract: | Is the EU 'distinctly rights-driven' (Bradford 2023), as suggested in recent debates about so-called digital empires opposing the EU to a systematically market-driven US and state-driven China? This article offers an in-depth study of a crucial EU digital policy initiative, the much-acclaimed Digital Services Act. Based on discourse/output analysis it uncovers that the EU hardly performs according to the ideal-type’s expectation. When making choices between stronger or weaker regulation of digital platforms as debated before the Act’s adoption, the platforms’ preferences were consistently and quite strongly preferred over more citizens’ rights-oriented policy options. Recognising and admitting this seems urgent in order to resist attempts from in- and outside the EU to question even the timid regulatory steps the DSA has brought. |
| Keywords: | political science; digital services act; eu policy choices; platforms; european union |
| Date: | 2026–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erp:eifxxx:p0053 |
| By: | Ahmed-Amine El Azdi; Onur Ozlu; Mr. Felix Fischer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how granular bank shocks propagate to aggregate credit in Mauritania’s banking system. Using confidential monthly data, we extract size-weighted innovations to lending growth and profitability. At the aggregate level, lending shocks are large and exhibit a near one-for-one mapping into monthly credit growth, accounting for roughly 80 percent of its short-run fluctuations. By contrast, profitability shocks are small, statistically insignificant, and contribute almost nothing to explaining aggregate credit. This pattern suggests that fluctuations in intermediation are driven by shifts in lending at a few dominant banks, while high earnings are largely retained as buffers rather than recycled into new credit, revealing a persistent wedge between profitability and the provision of financial services. The results have direct policy relevance for Mauritania and, more broadly, for low-income and emerging economies with concentrated and nascent banking sectors. |
| Keywords: | Banking sector granularity; financial intermediation; aggregate credit; idiosyncratic shocks; low-income country; emerging economies |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/087 |
| By: | Randy Moise Kambana (Université catholique du Congo - Université catholique du Congo); Gaël Ngongo (UPC - Université protestante au Congo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamics of de-dollarization in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), exploiting the 2024 monetary reforms as quasi-exogenous shocks observable in both regulatory texts and payment practices. Three key findings stand out. First, by opening the "black box" of payments—POS, ATS, and mobile money—we provide evidence of increased use of the Congolese franc and incipient substitution away from foreign currency deposits. Second, econometric tests (event studies, difference-in-differences, local projections) identify a sharp break in price transmission: exchange rate pass-through to inflation declines significantly from the second quarter of 2024. Third, forward-looking simulations (2025–2050) demonstrate that only strict and sustained reform execution, combined with deepening domestic financial markets (yield curve in CDF, collateral, Treasury securities), can achieve a durable reduction in dollarization (−9.5 percentage points) and a contraction in pass-through of nearly 40%. These findings underscore that de-dollarization is not decreed but built: through repeated and credible usage of the national currency, anchored in market depth and institutional credibility. Beyond the Congolese case, this study contributes to global debates on dollarized regimes, providing new insights into how resource-rich emerging economies can reconstruct monetary credibility and restore effective policy transmission. |
| Abstract: | Français)Cet article explore la dynamique de la dé-dollarisation en République démocratique du Congo (RDC) en mobilisant les réformes de 2024 comme chocs quasiexogènes, identifiables dans les textes officiels et observables dans les pratiques de paiement.Trois résultats majeurs émergent. Premièrement, l'ouverture de la « boîte noire » des paiements POS, ATS, mobile money révèle un accroissement mesurable de l'usage du franc congolais, amorçant une substitution aux dépôts en devises. Deuxièmement, les tests économétriques (études d'événement, diff-in-diff, local projections) mettent en évidence une rupture nette de la transmission prix : le pass-through du taux de change à l'inflation se réduit de manière significative à partir du deuxième trimestre 2024. Troisièmement, les simulations prospectives (2025-2050) montrent que seule une exécution stricte et soutenue des réformes, couplée à une profondeur financière domestique (courbe des taux en CDF, collatéral, titres publics), permet une baisse durable de la dollarisation (-9, 5 points) et une contraction du pass-through de près de 40 %. Ces résultats démontrent que la dé-dollarisation ne procède pas du décret, mais de l'usage répété et crédible de la monnaie nationale, combiné à la profondeur institutionnelle des marchés. En inscrivant la RDC dans une trajectoire cohérente, cette recherche éclaire non seulement les perspectives nationales mais enrichit aussi le débat international sur les régimes dollarisés et la reconstruction de la crédibilité monétaire dans les économies émergentes riches en ressources. Mots-clés : Dédollarisation ; Politique monétaire ; Dollarisation financière ; Pass-through du taux de change ; Systèmes de paiement ; TPE (terminaux de paiement électronique) ; Monnaie locale (CDF) ; Courbe des taux en CD. |
| Keywords: | Exchange-rate pass-through, Financial dollarization, Monetary policy, De-dollarization, Payment systems, POS (point-of-sale) terminals, CDF yield curve, Local currency (CDF) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05229895 |
| By: | Yikuan Huang; Zheqi Fan; Kaiqi Hu; Yifan Ye |
| Abstract: | LLM agents are promising tools for empirical discovery, but their flexibility can also turn discovery into uncontrolled search. We study how to use agents under a reproducible protocol through cryptocurrency factor discovery. Our framework casts the task as sequential hypothesis search: an agent reads an append-only experiment trace, proposes falsifiable factor hypotheses, and maps them to executable recipes, while a deterministic engine enforces fixed data splits, selection gates, transaction costs, and portfolio tests. Candidate actions are restricted to a point-in-time factor DSL, making both successful and failed hypotheses auditable. A ridge-combined portfolio trained only on 2020--2022 data achieves a 44.55% annualized return and Sharpe ratio of 1.55 in the 2024--2026 pure out-of-sample period after a 5 basis point one-way trading cost. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26747 |
| By: | Dewan, Sabina,; Kashyap, Praavita, |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how the evolving platform economy is reshaping the economic landscape across Asia and the Pacific, and how countries in this diverse region are navigating emerging opportunities and challenges. It situates platform work within the broader context of the region's economic transformation toward service-led growth and highlights how varying levels of development, demographic profiles, and digital infrastructure influence how the platform economy is evolving, and how it affects employment in countries across the region. Through an analysis of legislative frameworks based on information publicly available as of August 2025, the paper presents examples of how countries in Asia and the Pacific are governing platform work. The findings reveal that while digital labour platforms offer income-generation opportunities, regulatory frameworks are evolving more slowly than the platforms themselves. The paper concludes that comprehensive governance frameworks that address legal and policy dimensions, highlight social and labour protections, and underscore the importance of social dialogue are essential for realizing decent work in the platform economy. |
| Keywords: | digital economy, decent work, digital labour platforms, legal aspect |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995694372302676 |
| By: | Kartik B. Athreya |
| Abstract: | Opening Remarks at The 2026 Federal Reserve Financial and Monetary History Conference. |
| Keywords: | financial and monetary history; economic history; conference |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:103179 |
| By: | Michelle W. Bowman |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:103137 |
| By: | Karl T. Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Renewed public attention on the identity of Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator has sharpened focus on the Satoshi overhang, commonly framed as a tail risk for bitcoin. This paper argues that the mechanical downside of a disposition is bounded well below the existential-loss framing, and that the terminal states most consistent with sixteen years of holder behavior are nonbearish for bitcoin's effective supply. The approximately 1.148 million BTC Patoshi position is analyzed on two tracks. For a purely wealth-maximizing holder, a three-scenario quantitative analysis (Appendix A) shows that bitcoin's current market depth is sufficient to absorb a patient multi-year liquidation at a cumulative price impact in the mid-single-digit to mid-double-digit percent range relative to counterfactual, with the central scenario clustering near 10 percent. The paper maps a decision space rather than identifying a unique modal outcome, assuming a holder whose profile is consistent with the sixteen-year record. Preference sets consistent with the record, including ideological non-intervention, privacy above all, satisficing, and myth preservation, favor continued dormancy terminating in a cryptographically enforced nonrecovery or destruction arrangement; preference sets favoring adversarial or wealth-maximizing action are possible but less supported. Across the plausible region of the decision space, the bear case is bounded and the terminal states most consistent with observed behavior are neutral to slightly positive for bitcoin's effective supply. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.27694 |
| By: | Josef Simpartl |
| Abstract: | This article examines forms of direct monetary policy communication and their impact on inflation expectations and the public's perception of the central bank. To this end, an experiment was conducted in August 2024 with three groups of respondents representative of the Czech population, the first of which was exposed to a monetary policy statement, the second to a related Facebook post, and the third to no information. Respondents who were exposed to the above-mentioned texts significantly reduced their inflation expectations and the link between those inflation expectations and perceived current inflation. At the same time, their knowledge of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank (CNB) improved somewhat. However, none of the groups of respondents changed their opinion on the CNB, with the exception of a slight improvement in the assessment of its communication in the case of the group exposed to the Facebook post. |
| Keywords: | Inflation expectations, central bank, communication, social media, survey |
| JEL: | C83 D84 E31 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2026/04 |