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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Magin, Jana Anjali; Neyer, Ulrike; Stevens, Alexandra |
| Abstract: | Many Central banks around the world are considering the introduction of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) as a new means of payment. One of the reasons for introducing a CBDC is a change in payment behavior towards an increasing use of electronic forms of payment. This paper examines the introduction of a CBDC as a new means of payment. We conduct a controlled laboratory experiment to assess how adoption costs and anonymity affect the demand for CBDC compared to established means of payment such as cash and deposits. We use a 2x2 treatment design in which CBDCs differ in adoption costs and anonymity. We find that adoption costs play an important role in the decision to use CBDC as a new means of payment and that anonymity plays a role in the allocation of experimental money between different means of payment. |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currencies, experimental economics, payment methods, anonymity, adoption costs |
| JEL: | E41 E42 C92 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:339605 |
| By: | Bindseil, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the role of layering in the architecture of money and payment systems and how recent technological innovations affect it. Layering in payments, whereby payment ledgers are hierarchical to each other, and senior ledgers allow for interoperability between junior ledgers, has historically emerged from efficiency, risk management, and governance considerations. The paper develops a framework to classify ledger hierarchies and types of payment ledgers and uses it to assess innovations including central bank digital currencies, instant payment systems, public blockchains, tokenized multi-asset platforms, expanded access of non-bank payment service providers to central bank accounts, and stablecoins. The analysis shows that many innovations do not eliminate layering but instead reorganize it, often preserving the fundamental tiered structure in which central bank money anchors the monetary system. Innovations should normally improve payment efficiency but also introduce new risks and policy challenges that must be addressed, implying the need for regulatory modernization and an evolving role for central banks in shaping payment architectures and safeguarding the singleness of money. |
| Keywords: | Layering of payment systems, Monetary architecture, Central bank money, Stablecoins, Tokenization and payment infrastructures |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:339609 |
| By: | Wendy Currie (Audencia Business School); Jonathan Seddon (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the narratives of the evolution of the first digital asset, Bitcoin. Emerging as an unregulated, decentralized digital asset, it was developed as an alternative to fiat currency. Using primary and secondary data sources, the discussion is framed around four key themes that influence adoption: cryptographic technology, trust, decentralized finance, and regulation. Each focal theme extends the dialectical debates on Bitcoin, revealing competing narratives on digital responsibility and oversight of the nascent digital asset market. A nuanced understanding of the trajectory and scope of digital currencies to repurpose financial markets is presented. This study aligns with this special issue through its analysis of positive anda negative crypto-asset contributions and the digital responsibilities that develop from transformation and adoption. A major contribution is that decentralized finance is not empirically confirmed, as centralized financial institutions are now offering digital assets as part of their regulated client portfolios. |
| Keywords: | Crypto-asset technology, Trust, Regulation, Bitcoin, Ethereum |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05563837 |
| By: | Olorunnisola Abiola Olubukola (Kampala International University, Kampala, Uganda); Aine Oman (Kampala International University, Kampala, Uganda); Manyange Micheal (Kampala International University, Kampala, Uganda); Olaiya Sanya Peter (Kampala International University, Kampala, Uganda); Matovu Juma (Kampala International University, Kampala, Uganda) |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion is essential for all individuals in the community reflecting affordability, accessibility and reliability of financial services particularly in Nsiika town council, Buhweju district, Uganda where the levels of financial inclusion are still very low with only 16% of the mature population keeping their funds at official deposit taking organizations and now with introduction of mobile money services, it is considered a major factor. The main purpose of the study is to |
| Keywords: | diffusion of innovations theory, mobile loans, Uganda, Buhweju district, financial inclusion, mobile money services, mobile money services financial inclusion Buhweju district Uganda diffusion of innovations theory mobile loans |
| Date: | 2025–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05547005 |
| By: | Hardhik Mohanty; Bhaskar Krishnamachari |
| Abstract: | Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.01431 |
| By: | Shayan Eskandari; Leid Zejnilovic; Jeremy Clark |
| Abstract: | Blockchain technology introduces asset types and custody mechanisms that fundamentally break traditional financial auditing paradigms. This paper presents an autoethnographic analysis of cryptoasset auditing challenges, build on top of prior research on a comprehensive framework addressing existence, ownership, valuation, and internal control verification. Drawing from lived experience implementing blockchain systems as an engineer, smart contract auditor, and CTO of a publicly traded cryptoasset firm, we demonstrate how autoethnographic methodology becomes necessary for understanding technical complexities that external analysis cannot capture. Through detailed examination of token airdrops, multi-signature smart contracts, and real-time on-chain reporting, we provide experimental approaches and common scenarios that auditing firms can analyze to address blockchain innovations currently considered technically insurmountable. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26361 |
| By: | Alexander Copestake; Cage Englander; Maria Soledad Martinez Peria; Mr. Germán Villegas-Bauer |
| Abstract: | We examine whether financial market participants, in aggregate, expect stablecoins to play an important role in payments. Using high-frequency variation in stock prices, we estimate that U.S. legislation supporting the use of stablecoins in payments reduced the market value of listed incumbent payment firms by 18% or approximately $300 billion, consistent with stablecoins increasing competition in the payments sector. This impact is larger than that of other recent pro-competitive regulatory shocks and (i) proportionately larger for incumbents focused on cross-border payments, (ii) smaller for incumbents protected by network effects, and (iii) smaller for incumbents already offering crypto-related services. |
| Keywords: | Crypto Assets, Stablecoins, Payments, Stock Returns |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/052 |
| By: | Randall Guynn |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:102944 |
| By: | Lukasz Gebski; Georges Daw (Université Paris-Saclay, Faculté Jean Monnet Droit, Économie, Management,); Krzysztof Waliszewski; Mateusz Folwarski; Oleksii Druhov |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this article is to examine the factors that may influence the misidentification of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) payment system, with a particular focus onwhether its popularity is due not only to user adoption incentives but also to a fundamental misinterpretation of its financial nature. In particular, the article addresses the question to what extent consumers perceive BNPL as a financial product distinct from traditional credit and how this perception shapes their financial behavior and decision-making. Although BNPL is frequently promoted as a seamless and interest-free alternative to credit cards, growing evidence indicates that many consumers fail to recognize it as a form of debt. This misconception may stem both from deliberate marketing strategies employed byBNPL providers and from cognitive biases that influence financial decision-making. The article investigates whether consumers' limited financial literacy, along with psychological heuristics—such as the framing effect, present bias, and mental accounting—play a rolein the rapid adoption of BNPL, often without a full awareness of its potential financial implications. The research area defined in this way is particularly interesting because it is a new approach to the analysis of deferred payments. Many studies have been conducted on the BNPL market and the structure of the financial product itself, but the source of its false perception has been very rarely addressed. Critical analysis of the literature and previous scientific research on the subject. Empirical data verifying knowledge about BNPL and its perception by consumers come from research conducted in January 2024 using the PAPI and CAWI methods on a sample of 1002 Poles and in March 2025 using the CAWI method on a sample of 343 European students and their families. The article also refers to the positions of European financial market regulators from the perspective of actions to be taken. The conducted consumer research revealed a common misconception about the nature of the product, which is BNPL. Many people, especially young people, perceive BNPLnot as a financial service (consumer credit), but as an extension of the store's commercial offer, which in its own name and on its own behalf decides to accept deferred payment for a product or service. It was also revealed that the use of BNPL facilitates the emergence of heuristics and other behavioral factors influencing the consumers' misconception about the nature of this financial product.The presented consumer research and scientific research studies lead to an interesting conclusion, according to which the popularity of BNPL may result to a large extent from the consumers' misconception that it is not a form of credit. This has significant consequences for the reflection on the adaptation of consumer protection regulations on the financial market and forces specific actions on the part of financial market supervisors. |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser les facteurs pouvant conduire à une mauvaise identification du dispositif Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL), en examinant si sa popularité résulte non seulement des incitations à l'adoption, mais aussi d'une mésinterprétation sur sa nature financière. Il s'agit plus précisément d'évaluer dans quelle mesure les consommateurs perçoivent le BNPL comme un produit distinct du crédit traditionnel et comment cette perception influence leurs comportements financiers. Bien que souvent présenté comme une alternative simple (et sans intérêts) aux cartes de crédit, le BNPL est fréquemment mal reconnue comme une forme d'endettement. Cette confusion semble découler à la fois de stratégies marketing des fournisseurs et de biais cognitifs affectant la décision financière, tels que l'effet de cadrage, le biais de présentisme et la comptabilité mentale. L'article examine ainsi le rôle de la littératie financière limitée et des heuristiques psychologiques dans l'adoption rapide du BNPL, souvent sans conscience complète de ses implications. L'approche retenue apporte une perspective nouvelle à l'étude du paiement différé, la question de l'origine de la perception erronée ayant été peu étudiée. L'analyse mobilise la littérature existante et des données empiriques issues d'enquêtes menées en 2024 (PAPI et CAWI, 1 002 répondants en Pologne) et en 2025 (CAWI, 343 étudiants européens et leurs familles). Elle s'appuie également sur les positions des régulateurs financiers européens. Les résultats montrent une méconnaissance répandue de la nature du BNPL : de nombreux consommateurs, particulièrement les plus jeunes, le considèrent non comme un crédit à la consommation, mais comme un simple prolongement d'une offre commerciale. L'usage du BNPL favorise par ailleurs l'émergence d'heuristiques et d'autres facteurs comportementaux renforçant cette perception biaisée. L'ensemble des analyses conduit à l'idée que la popularité du BNPL pourrait s'expliquer en grande partie par la croyance erronée qu'il ne constitue pas une forme de crédit. Cette conclusion soulève des enjeux importants pour l'adaptation des règles de protection des consommateurs sur le marché financier et appel à une action renforcée des autorités de supervision. |
| Keywords: | G53 Czy popularność BNPL wynika z błędnych przekonań konsumentów na temat tego produktu finansowego? Abstrakt BNPL, finanse gospodarstw domowych, wiedza finansowa, finanse konsumenckie, G23, behavioral finance JEL Classification Codes: D12, fintech, household finance, financial literacy, consumer finance, BNPL, BNPL consumer finance financial literacy household finance fintech behavioral finance JEL Classification Codes: D12 G23 G53 Czy popularność BNPL wynika z błędnych przekonań konsumentów na temat tego produktu finansowego? Abstrakt BNPL finanse konsumenckie wiedza finansowa finanse gospodarstw domowych fintech |
| Date: | 2025–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05401236 |
| By: | Louis-Daniel Pape (ECO-Télécom Paris - Equipe Eco Economie - CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Groupe ENSAE-ENSAI - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Michelangelo Rossi (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of the European Union (EU) Digital Markets Act (DMA) on user search behavior and traffic to online mapping services, focusing on recent changes to Google's search results page. In January 2024, Google altered the display of location-based queries for EU users by removing clickable maps and direct links to Google Maps. We exploit this policy-induced change and implement a difference-in-differences design comparing EU and non-EU countries to assess how the removal of Google's self-preferencing shaped search volumes and traffic patterns. Search queries for maps and Google Maps increased by more than 21%. Although the former may reflect broader interest in mapping services, the latter directly signals intent to use Google Maps. Yet, this surge in searches primarily redirected users back to Google Maps. Traffic data reveal no significant change in overall visits to www.google.com/maps on desktops or mobile devices. Instead, we observe shifts in the channels through which users access the service and in session duration. No corresponding increase in search activity or traffic is observed for Bing Maps nor for other competing mapping services. These findings indicate that the DMA had weak competitive effects, highlighting Google Maps' dominance in a market where alternatives remain limited. |
| Keywords: | Self-preferencing, Digital Platforms, Online Search, Digital Markets Act, Google Maps |
| Date: | 2026–01–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05564479 |
| By: | Khaw, Rachel (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This thesis develops a theoretical model of digital platform competition in which moderation choices endogenously generate ideological differentiation. Competing platforms decide which content providers to host, trading off advertising revenues against moderation costs, while consumers sort by ideological proximity and content variety. In equilibrium, breadth competition cancels out, leaving ideological tilt as the key dimension of differentiation. Polarisation emerges as the most robust equilibrium, maximising platform profits but welfare-reducing for moderates, while generalism is socially optimal but privately fragile. By modelling ideology as the outcome of moderation intensity rather than an exogenous stance, the paper clarifies how moderation incentives shape polarisation, welfare, and regulatory trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | Digital platforms ; content moderation ; ideological differentiation ; polarisation ; welfare ; industrial organisation. JEL classifications: L13 ; L82 ; D43 ; D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:98 |
| By: | Farina, Tatiana; Franke, Günter; Heider, Florian; Krahnen, Jan Pieter; Subrahmanyam, Marti G. |
| Abstract: | This SAFE White Paper presents a structured economic framework for assessing asset-backed stablecoins in their capacity as privately issued, fiscally anchored monetary instruments. Specifically, we evaluate the implications of stablecoins for financial intermediation, sovereign debt markets, and monetary transmission while devoting particular attention to differences between the United States and European Union. To this end, we characterize the basic economics of stablecoins by comparing their balance-sheet structure to narrow banks, money market funds, commercial banks, and central banks, highlighting that issuers engage in minimal maturity transformation and hold predominantly high-quality liquid assets against par-redeemable digital liabilities. Furthermore, we examine the regulatory design of the US GENIUS Act and the EU's MiCAR framework, showing how differences in reserve composition and supervisory architecture shape incentives for regulatory arbitrage and influence whether stablecoin growth reallocates existing sovereign debt holdings or generates net additional demand. For the euro area, the central question is whether digital liquidity remains anchored in domestic sovereign assets or shifts toward foreign-currency stablecoins, with implications for monetary sovereignty and financial stability. We conclude that Europe requires an active response: advancing a digital euro, strengthening global supervisory coordination, and reinforcing cross-border AML enforcement in public blockchain environments to safeguard monetary sovereignty and financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Stablecoins, treasury markets, digitial currency |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:339581 |
| By: | Wishnu Badrawani; Elsa Dyahpitaloka; Ahmad F. F. Alanshori; Imam Mukhlis |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between coin demand, payment innovation, COVID-19, and a coin's purchasing power, particularly in emerging countries like Indonesia. The rapid advancement of payment platforms, combined with high adoption during the pandemic, has positioned non-cash payments as a complement or substitute for coin money for transactions. However, there is notably limited coin-money-related research in the economic literature. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test methodology's cointegration approach using monthly data from 2011 to 2022, our findings reveal a long-term relationship between coin demand and its determinants: payment innovations, the pandemic, coin depreciation, and income. Despite the swift advancement of payment innovations and their usage, coins remain vital to the economy and are unlikely to become obsolete soon. Our study offers essential policy recommendations and enriches the field of knowledge on coin money demand. Policymakers must understand the driving factors of coin demand in both economic and non-economic contexts to improve coin production-related issues and coin circulation policies. Reviewing the Rupiah denomination structure is crucial in addressing the problem of ineffective coin circulation in the economy. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.27717 |
| By: | Vogel, Henrik; Weidenbeck, Simon |
| Abstract: | Faced with intense competition in the video-on-demand (VoD) market, providers are under increasing pressure to understand the determinants of user acceptance to justify significant investments in content and infrastructure. Based on the stimulus-organism-response (S-O-R) model, this study examines the influence of specific content-related characteristics on consumers' intention to use VoD services. The conceptual model was empirically validated using data from a quantitative online survey of German consumers (n = 200). The results reveal that the intention to use is massively driven by perceived content value. Specifically, content quality and platform design emerged as significant antecedents of content value, whereas content variety showed no significant impact, suggesting a shift in user preference from quantity to relevance. The paper concludes by deriving actionable managerial implications for VoD providers as well as recommendations for future research in digital service adoption. |
| Keywords: | Video-on-demand (VoD), Stimulus-organism-response (SOR) model, video streaming, intention to use, determining factors, streaming service |
| JEL: | L82 L86 M15 M16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:339587 |
| By: | Boamah, Collins |
| Abstract: | The acceleration of digital financial services in Ghana has transformed the country's banking landscape while simultaneously reshaping its financial crime risk profile. Drawing on insights from the Bank of Ghana (BoG) Annual Fraud Reports, Ghana Association of Banks (GAB) Quarterly Fraud Reports, Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC) data, and law enforcement sources including the Ghana Police Service, EOCO, and OSP, this paper examines evolving fraud typologies, systemic vulnerabilities, and regulatory expectations within Ghana's banking sector. The findings reveal a structural shift from traditional branch-based fraud to digitally enabled, identitydriven, and cross-border financial crime. The paper argues that regulatory compliance alone is insufficient; instead, a resilience-based, intelligenceled, ecosystem-wide response is required to safeguard financial stability in the digital era. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:gabpbs:339595 |
| By: | Se Yan (Zachary); Han Zhong (Zachary); Zemin (Zachary); Zhong; Wenyu Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper provides some of the first large-scale descriptive evidence on how consumers adopt and use platform-embedded shopping AI in e-commerce. Using data on 31 million users of Ctrip, China's largest online travel platform, we study "Wendao, " an LLM-based AI assistant integrated into the platform. We document three empirical regularities. First, adoption is highest among older consumers, female users, and highly engaged existing users, reversing the younger, male-dominated profile commonly documented for general-purpose AI tools. Second, AI chat appears in the same broad phase of the purchase journey as traditional search and well before order placement; among journeys containing both chat and search, the most common pattern is interleaving, with users moving back and forth between the two modalities. Third, consumers disproportionately use the assistant for exploratory, hard-to-keyword tasks: attraction queries account for 42% of observed chat requests, and chat intent varies systematically with both the timing of chat relative to search and the category of products later purchased within the same journey. These findings suggest that embedded shopping AI functions less as a substitute for conventional search than as a complementary interface for exploratory product discovery in e-commerce. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.24947 |
| By: | Shrey Lingampalli |
| Abstract: | The institutionalization of stablecoins has led to a paradigm shift in reserve management, accelerated by the 2025 Green Energy and National Infrastructure Underpinning Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. This study investigates the "Climate-Liquidity Nexus, " defined as the structural vulnerability arising from the use of environmentally sustainable but secondary-market-thin assets as collateral for high-velocity digital payment instruments. Utilizing a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and GARCH(1, 1) volatility frameworks on high-frequency data from 2024 to 2026, we demonstrate that the transition toward green reserves introduces significant "Liquidity Hysteresis." My empirical results indicate that while green bonds fulfill ESG regulatory mandates, they compromise the information-insensitivity of the 1.00 USD peg. Following exogenous climate-finance shocks, the recovery half-life of green-backed stablecoins is found to be 5.4 times longer than that of traditional Treasury-backed counterparts. We find that the "Greenium" paid by issuers acts as a volatility multiplier rather than a safety buffer. These findings suggest that the current regulatory trajectory may inadvertently catalyze systemic fragility during physical risk events, necessitating a redesign of liquidity backstop facilities. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.24842 |
| By: | Illia Donhauzer; Pierluigi Cesana; Tomoyuki Shirai; Yuichi Ikeda |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is to study XRP cryptoasset price dynamics, with a particular focus on forecasting atypical price movements. Recent studies suggest that topological properties of transaction graphs are highly informative for understanding cryptocurrency price behavior. In this work, we show that specific topological properties of the XRP transaction graphs provide important information about extreme XRP price surges, and can be used for more competitive prediction of anomalous price dynamics. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.18021 |
| By: | Jonas Stein; Shannon Cruz; Davide Grossi; Martina Testori |
| Abstract: | A core tenet underpinning the conception of contemporary information networks, such as social media platforms, is that users should not be constrained in the amount of information they can freely and willingly exchange with one another about a given topic. By means of a computational agent-based model, we show how even in groups of truth-seeking and cooperative agents with perfect information-processing abilities, unconstrained information exchange may lead to detrimental effects on the correctness of the group's beliefs. If unconstrained information exchange can be detrimental even among such idealized agents, it is prudent to assume it can also be so in practice. We therefore argue that constraints on information flow should be carefully considered in the design of communication networks with substantial societal impact, such as social media platforms. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.01838 |
| By: | Paul Gertler; Brett Green; Catherine Wolfram |
| Abstract: | We study a loan contract that requires borrowers to make a temporary cash deposit prior to disbursement, which is fully refunded and does not alter repayment incentives. In a randomized controlled trial with a digital lender, applicants are offered otherwise identical loans with or without a deposit. The deposit requirement reduces loan take-up but substantially improves repayment and lender profitability. The results indicate that deposits screen borrowers on both observable and unobservable characteristics. Higher-risk borrowers are less likely to take up deposit loans, and among borrowers with the same observable risk profile, those who accept deposit loans repay at higher rates, with the largest differences among low-risk borrowers. These findings show that simple contract features can complement data-driven credit models by adding an additional screening margin. |
| JEL: | G23 G51 O16 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35001 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Paula Beltrán; Federico Grinberg |
| Abstract: | Using data on four USD-pegged stablecoins and 27 fiat currencies, this paper documents spillovers from stablecoin-based foreign exchange (FX) to traditional FXmarkets. We document a gap between the cost of acquiring dollars via stablecoins and via the spot FX market (parity deviations). To establish a causal link between stablecoin flows and FX markets, we use a granular instrumental variable that exploits idiosyncratic shocks to stablecoin net inflows in other currencies. Our estimates indicate that a 1% exogenous increase in net stablecoin inflows raises parity deviations by 40 basis points, depreciates the local currency, and widens the dollar premium in synthetic funding markets (covered interest parity (CIP) deviations). A model of constrained arbitrage rationalizes these findings and provides structural foundations for the identification strategy. Counterfactual simulations show that halving cross-market frictions would attenuate CIP spillovers by roughly one-half and cut exchange rate effects by nearly one-third. A dynamic extension that closely matches the empirical impulse responses shows that spillovers grow disproportionately when intermediaries suffer losses, as depleted capital reduces their capacity to absorb further shocks. Our results establish stablecoins as an emerging segment of global currency markets with direct implications for financial stability. |
| Keywords: | stablecoins, foreign exchange, market segmentation, capital flows, arbitrage |
| JEL: | F31 G15 G12 G23 F38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1340 |
| By: | Hege, Ulrich; Baranes, Edmond; Kim, Jin-Hyuk |
| Abstract: | We present a stylized model of three entrepreneurial financing methods based on two tradeoffs. First, token financing and crowdfunding reveal consumer-investors’ demand for the product prior to investment, but upfront purchase weakens the entrepreneur’s incentive to deliver. Second, token financing permits a bubble component in token value, but reduces consumer surplus because tokens are stored rather than consumed. We characterize the conditions under which entrepreneurs prefer each financing method. We show that token financing can fund socially efficient projects that cannot be funded through equity or crowdfunding, but leads to suboptimal consumption. Finally, we propose an implementable hurdle condition for regulators. |
| Keywords: | crowdfunding, entrepreneurial financing, initial coin offering, token regulation, ; utility token |
| JEL: | G32 G38 L26 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131654 |
| By: | Aditya Humnabadkar |
| Abstract: | Network analysis of inter-industry payment flows reveals structural economic relationships invisible to traditional bilateral measurement approaches, with significant implications for real-time economic monitoring. Analysing 532, 346 UK payment records (2017--2024) across 89 industry sectors, we demonstrate that graph-theoretic features which include centrality measures and clustering coefficients improve payment flow forecasting by 8.8 percentage points beyond traditional time-series methods. Critically, network features prove most valuable during economic disruptions: during the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional forecasting accuracy collapsed (R2} falling from 0.38 to 0.19), network-enhanced models maintained substantially better performance, with network contributions reaching +13.8 percentage points. The analysis identifies Financial Services, Wholesale Trade, and Professional Services as structurally central industries whose network positions indicate systemic importance beyond their transaction volumes. Network density increased 12.5\% over the sample period, with visible disruption during 2020 followed by recovery exceeding pre-pandemic integration levels. These findings suggest payment network monitoring could enhance official statistics production by providing leading indicators of structural economic change and improving nowcasting accuracy during periods when traditional temporal patterns prove unreliable. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.02068 |
| By: | Natalia Kovrijnykh; Igor Livshits; Ariel Zetlin-Jones |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how new borrowers expand their credit access. In particular, we examine the role that consumers’ credit choices, not just repayment behavior, play in building their credit histories. Using credit bureau data, we document that incumbent lenders typically increase credit limits for borrowers who open additional credit cards. This effect is especially pronounced for new borrowers. Our interpretation of this evidence is that lenders perceive credit offered by other lenders as revealing favorable information about the borrower. We build a novel model consistent with this hypothesis and show that the model’s predictions are consistent with the data. |
| Keywords: | Emerging Borrowers; Credit History; Information Aggregation; Debt Dilution |
| JEL: | D14 D82 D83 D86 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102941 |
| By: | Mariam El Harras (ENCGT - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger - UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]); Hajar Maimouni (ENCGT - Ecole Nationale de Commerce et de Gestion de Tanger - UAE - Abdelmalek Essaadi University [Tétouan] = Université Abdelmalek Essaadi [Tétouan]) |
| Abstract: | The fight against money laundering and terrorist financing (AML/CFT) represents a central challenge for emerging economies subject to increasing pressure from international standards. The 2024 Enhanced Follow-Up Report of the Middle East and North Africa Financial Action Task Force (MENAFATF) shows that Morocco has made considerable regulatory progress while highlighting persistent operational shortcomings that affect the overall performance of the framework. This article therefore proposes a structured narrative analysis of the Moroccan AML/CFT system, based on a documentary review encompassing FATF and MENAFATF reports, national legislation, and domestic regulatory documentation. The results reveal that despite Morocco's high level of technical compliance, key challenges remain, particularly in beneficial ownership transparency, supervision of virtual assets, digital investigation capabilities, data interoperability, and inter-institutional coordination. In this regard, the study underscores the need for progressive modernization of the Moroccan framework, grounded in organizational strengthening and improved integration of emerging technologies to enhance data quality, supervisory efficiency, and risk detection. |
| Abstract: | La lutte contre le blanchiment de capitaux et le financement du terrorisme (LBC-FT) constitue un enjeu central pour les économies émergentes soumises à une pression croissante des standards internationaux. Le rapport de suivi renforcé du Groupe d'Action Financière du Moyen-Orient et de l'Afrique du Nord (GAFIMOAN) en 2024 montre que le Maroc a réalisé des avancées réglementaires considérables tout en soulignant des lacunes opérationnelles persistantes qui affectent la performance globale du dispositif. Ainsi, cet article propose une analyse narrative structurée du cadre marocain de LBC-FT, fondée sur une revue documentaire incluant les rapports du GAFI et GAFIMOAN, les textes législatifs nationaux et les rapports nationaux. Les résultats révèlent que malgré le niveau élevé de conformité technique enregistré par le Maroc, des défis demeurent principalement dans la transparence du bénéficiaire effectif, la supervision des actifs virtuels, les capacités d'enquête numérique, l'interopérabilité des données ainsi que la coordination interinstitutionnelle. En ce sens, l'étude met en évidence la nécessité d'une modernisation progressive du dispositif marocain qui est fondée sur un renforcement organisationnel en plus d'une meilleure intégration des nouvelles technologies pour améliorer la qualité des données, l'efficacité de la supervision ainsi que la détection des risques. |
| Keywords: | Morocco, FATF/MENAFATF, Terrorist Financing, Money Laundering, Maroc, GAFI/GAFIMOAN, Financement du terrorisme, Blanchiment des capitaux |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05552143 |
| By: | Roseth, Benjamin; Santamaria, Julieth; Berton, Juan; Dornel, Susana |
| Abstract: | Los servicios públicos digitales reducen significativamente los costos transaccionales para la ciudadanía y los costos de prestación para el gobierno, facilitando el acceso a beneficios, derechos y el cumplimiento de obligaciones. No obstante, fomentar la adopción de estos servicios mediante la promoción de su disponibilidad y beneficios sigue siendo un desafío universal para los gobiernos. En este estudio, evaluamos la efectividad de tres canales de promoción mensajes de SMS, WhatsApp y llamadas telefónicas para aumentar la conciencia y la adopción de un servicio con alto potencial de ahorros para la ciudadanía: la identificación digital. Esta credencial permite autenticarse de forma segura en línea con la misma validez que la presencialidad y, por tanto, constituye un habilitante clave para el acceso pleno a los servicios públicos digitales que genera ahorros a la ciudadanía. Realizamos un experimento de campo con una muestra de 15 000 personas en Uruguay. Encontramos que tanto las llamadas telefónicas como los mensajes de WhatsApp fueron efectivos para aumentar la conciencia sobre la identidad digital, siendo WhatsApp el canal más costo-efectivo. Sin embargo, ninguno de los canales probados indujo un cambio significativo en la adopción o el uso del servicio. Interpretamos que esta brecha entre la conciencia y la acción es atribuible a dos factores clave: (i) los altos costos transaccionales, ya sea percibidos o reales, para obtener la identificación digital y (ii) la confusión de los ciudadanos respecto a las diferentes opciones de identificación digital disponibles. |
| JEL: | D70 D91 H40 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14549 |
| By: | Michaela Pagel; Sharada Sridhar; Emily Williams |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examine policy changes from large U.S. banks between 2017 and 2022, which eliminated non-sufficient funds (NSF) fees and relaxed overdraft policies. Using individual transaction-level data, we find that the elimination of NSF fees, not surprisingly, resulted in immediate reductions in NSF charges across the income distribution. However, relaxing overdraft policies resulted in reductions in overdraft fees only for wealthier households, along the dimensions of income and liquidity, and only those enjoyed subsequent declines in late fees, interest payments, account maintenance fees, and the use of alternative financial services, such as payday loans. Our results thus suggest that the policy changes were not substantial enough to significantly reduce the financial stress of the more vulnerable households. As our setting features multiple treatments and variation in treatment intensities, we theoretically motivate and empirically implement a new stacked event study estimator closely related to de Chaisemartin et al (2024) to address the biases arising from staggered DID specifications. |
| JEL: | D14 G5 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34993 |
| By: | Rahma Mzouri (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]); Abdelkrim Kandrouch (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales - UM5 - Université Mohammed V de Rabat [Agdal]) |
| Abstract: | Corporate failure constitutes a major economic, legal, and social issue, particularly in emerging economies such as Morocco. This article provides a critical synthesis of the theoretical and empirical approaches to understanding and predicting corporate bankruptcy, through an examination of financial, structural, and institutional determinants. Drawing on the international literature and the specific characteristics of the Moroccan context, it addresses the multidimensional nature of financial distress, the costs associated with corporate failure, resolution mechanisms, and the principal predictive models. A critical discussion of these paradigms is conducted by assessing their statistical assumptions, respective predictive performance, and theoretical as well as practical limitations. The article adopts a comparative perspective to shed light on epistemological controversies related to the selection of indicators and the determination of the optimal cut-off threshold. It is argued that the evolution of the field does not stem from a mere technological substitution, but rather from a cumulative trajectory of increasing endogenization, in which technical approaches must be articulated with economic and legal interpretative frameworks. Finally, this synthesis opens a discussion on prospects for multi-model integration, algorithmic transparency, and interpretative sovereignty in the context of the accelerating digitalization of finance. Keywords: Corporate failure, financial distress, Morocco, capital structure, predictive models, liquidation, governance, forecasting. JEL Classification: C53, G32 Type of paper: Theoretical research. |
| Abstract: | La défaillance d'entreprise représente un enjeu économique, juridique et social majeur, notamment dans les économies émergentes comme le Maroc. Cet article propose une synthèse critique des approches de compréhension et de prévision de la faillite d'entreprise à travers une analyse des déterminants financiers, structurels et institutionnels. En s'appuyant sur la littérature internationale et sur les spécificités du contexte marocain, il aborde la nature multidimensionnelle de la difficulté financière, les coûts associés à la défaillance, les mécanismes de résolution, ainsi que les principaux modèles prédictifs. Nous procédons à une discussion critique de ces paradigmes, en examinant leurs hypothèses statistiques, leur pouvoir prédictif respectif, ainsi que leurs limites théoriques et pratiques. L'article adopte une perspective comparative afin de mettre en lumière les controverses épistémologiques sur le choix des indicateurs et la mesure du cut-off optimal. Il est suggéré que l'évolution du champ ne procède pas d'une simple substitution technologique, mais bien d'une trajectoire cumulative d'endogénéisation croissante, dans laquelle les approches techniques doivent être articulées aux régimes d'interprétation économique et juridique. Cette synthèse ouvre enfin sur une discussion des perspectives d'intégration multi-modèle, de transparence algorithmique et de souveraineté interprétative dans le cadre de la digitalisation croissante de la finance. |
| Keywords: | financial distress, predictive models, capital structure, Morocco, governance, gouvernance, liquidation, modèles prédictifs, structure financière, Maroc, détresse financière, Défaillance d'entreprise, Défaillance d'entreprise détresse financière Maroc structure financière modèles prédictifs liquidation gouvernance prévision. |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05527901 |