|
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Pavel Ciaian; d'Artis Kancs; Miroslava Rajcaniova |
| Abstract: | Around three quarters of Bitcoin transactions take place off-chain. Despite their significance, the vast majority of the empirical literature on cryptocurrencies focuses on on-chain transactions. This paper presents one of the first analysis of both on- and off-chain demand- and supply-side factors. Two hypotheses relating on-chain and off-chain demand and supply drivers to the Bitcoin price are tested in an ARDL model with daily data from 2019 to 2024. Our estimates document the differential contributions of on-chain and off-chain drivers on the Bitcoin price. Off-chain demand pressures have a significant impact on the Bitcoin price in the long-run. In the short-run, both demand and supply drivers significantly affect the Bitcoin price. Regarding transactions on the blockchain, only on-chain demand pressures are statistically significant - both in the long- and short-run. These findings confirm the dual nature of the Bitcoin price dynamics, where also market fundamentals affect the Bitcoin price in addition to speculative drivers. Bitcoin whale trading has less significant impact on price in the long-run, while is more pronounced contemporaneously and one-period lag. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, price, on-chain, off-chain, blockchain, supply, demand, LocalBitcoins. |
| JEL: | E31 E42 G12 |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2026_01 |
| By: | Fateh Saci (CHROME - Détection, évaluation, gestion des risques CHROniques et éMErgents (CHROME) - Nîmes Université - UNIMES - Nîmes Université, UMay - Université de Mayotte (UMay)); Sajjad M. Jasimuddin (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to empirically study the stakes of Fintech and competition with traditional banks. Through interviews with 18 specialists working in various fintechs, the empirical results show that most of the fintechs elaborate on their in-house technology available via an online customizable platform, while other functionalities considered as out of the core Fintech activities are developed via external outsourcing. Fintechs face significant systemic challenges, including an evolving regulatory framework that can constrain ambitions and the need for rigorous compliance processes. Protecting personal data against hackers is also vital for these start-ups. The paper further shows that banks are not fundamentally threatened by fintech, given their essential role in the economy, especially credit intermediation. The relationship between the two appears more cooperative than competitive, with growing momentum for banks to acquire fintechs to accelerate digitalization and foster innovation. The scientific novelty lies in framing dual tech as a common operating pattern and showing that banks and fintechs are complementary through partnerships and acquisitions. |
| Keywords: | financial innovation, digitalization, competition, traditional banks, fintech |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05462400 |
| By: | Giulia Ajmone Marsan (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Adelia Rahmawati (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Fintech is emerging as a key driver of financial inclusion and innovation across emerging and developing economies. Its rapid growth is underpinned by large unbanked and underbanked populations, rising internet penetration, a shift towards mobile-first consumer behaviour, younger demographic profiles, and the digital acceleration catalysed by the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper examines how different fintech ecosystem models evolve under varying institutional, regulatory, and technological conditions. Drawing on illustrative cases from Latin America, ASEAN, Africa, and South Asia, it highlights how enabling regulatory frameworks, digital public infrastructure, startup ecosystems, and mobile-first solutions have shaped fintech development. These models are not mutually exclusive and often coexist within the same ecosystem, generating shared challenges such as fragmented markets, uneven regulatory capacity, persistent digital divides, and weaknesses in digital infrastructure. Realising fintech’s transformative potential therefore requires deliberate policy choices that promote equitable digital participation, foster competition, and support responsible innovation. For ASEAN, regional initiatives such as the ASEAN Regional Payment Connectivity and the Digital Economy Framework Agreement present timely opportunities to deepen integration, expand cross-border fintech services, and support sustained growth. Aligning fintech development with financial inclusion objectives will be critical to ensuring that digital finance contributes to sustainable and equitable development across the region. |
| Keywords: | Fintech; Innovation; Emerging Market; ASEAN |
| JEL: | L26 O14 O3 P52 |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2025-11 |
| By: | Mesbah Fathy Sharaf (University of Alberta); Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen (Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU)); Mansour Abdullateef Alharaib (Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU)) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the evolution, determinants, and disparities of digital financial inclusion (DFI) in Saudi Arabia from 2011 to 2021, with a focus on the post-COVID-19 period. Using micro-level cross-sectional data from the World Bank’s Global Findex database, we apply a multivariate Probit regression to examine the drivers of DFI across demographic, socioeconomic, and infrastructural dimensions. While Saudi Arabia has made notable progress in digital finance, gaps persist among women, the less educated, low-income groups, and the unemployed. Access to mobile phones and internet connectivity significantly enhances DFI, underscoring the role of digital infrastructure. As the first systematic analysis of DFI in Saudi Arabia using Global Findex data, this study provides timely insights into the inclusive digital transformation process. Importantly, it highlights how expanding equitable access to digital financial services can support broader goals of socioeconomic sustainability, reduce structural inequalities, and contribute to the Vision 2030 agenda. The findings offer practical guidance for policymakers seeking to design sustainable, inclusive financial ecosystems in the digital era. |
| Date: | 2025–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1783 |
| By: | Marco Dessalvi; Massimo Bartoletti; Alberto Lluch-Lafuente |
| Abstract: | Decentralized Finance (DeFi) has revolutionized financial markets by enabling complex asset-exchange protocols without trusted intermediaries. Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are a central component of DeFi, providing the core functionality of swapping assets of different types at algorithmically computed exchange rates. Several mainstream AMM implementations are based on the constant-product model, which ensures that swaps preserve the product of the token reserves in the AMM -- up to a \emph{trading fee} used to incentivize liquidity provision. Trading fees substantially complicate the economic properties of AMMs, and for this reason some AMM models abstract them away in order to simplify the analysis. However, trading fees have a non-trivial impact on users' trading strategies, making it crucial to develop refined AMM models that precisely account for their effects. We extend a foundational model of AMMs by introducing a new parameter, the trading fee $\phi\in(0, 1]$, into the swap rate function. Fee amounts increase inversely proportional to $\phi$. When $\phi = 1$, no fee is applied and the original model is recovered. We analyze the resulting fee-adjusted model from an economic perspective. We show that several key properties of the swap rate function, including output-boundedness and monotonicity, are preserved. At the same time, other properties - most notably additivity - no longer hold. We precisely characterize this deviation by deriving a generalized form of additivity that captures the effect of swaps in the presence of trading fees. We prove that when $\phi |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00101 |
| By: | Tuba Bakici; Maher a N Agi (Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business); Tekin Kose (University of Brighton); Horst Treiblmaier |
| Abstract: | This study investigates blockchain's effectiveness and the drivers of its success in supply chain management. Drawing upon the Information Systems Success post-adoption model and Contingency Theory, we propose a moderated mediation analysis to analyze the relationships among extended use, user satisfaction, individual benefits, supply chain complexity, and their impact on performance outcomes at both the supply chain and individual firm levels. The model was validated by using survey data from a cross-sectional sample of 370 supply chain professionals from the United States with blockchain experience. Our findings indicate that individual benefits mediate the impact of extended use and user satisfaction on supply chain and operational performance, while supply chain complexity positively moderates the indirect effect of extended use on supply chain performance through individual benefits. This suggests that blockchain adoption is more impactful in complex supply chain contexts with numerous processes, stakeholders, and data sources. These results highlight the importance of adequately considering the supply chain context to fully understand the effectiveness of blockchain technology. This study contributes to the nascent literature on the blockchain post-adoption phase and proposes a new extension to the Information Systems Success model by incorporating supply chain complexity as a contextual factor. |
| Keywords: | information systems success model, blockchain post-adoption, supply chain complexity, supply chain, Blockchain |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05444075 |
| By: | Yuanhong Wu; Wei Ye; Jingyan Xu; D. Frank Hsu |
| Abstract: | In this work, we propose to apply a new model fusion and learning paradigm, known as Combinatorial Fusion Analysis (CFA), to the field of Bitcoin price prediction. Price prediction of financial product has always been a big topic in finance, as the successful prediction of the price can yield significant profit. Every machine learning model has its own strength and weakness, which hinders progress toward robustness. CFA has been used to enhance models by leveraging rank-score characteristic (RSC) function and cognitive diversity in the combination of a moderate set of diverse and relatively well-performed models. Our method utilizes both score and rank combinations as well as other weighted combination techniques. Key metrics such as RMSE and MAPE are used to evaluate our methodology performance. Our proposal presents a notable MAPE performance of 0.19\%. The proposed method greatly improves upon individual model performance, as well as outperforms other Bitcoin price prediction models. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00037 |
| By: | Agathe Sadeghi; Zachary Feinstein |
| Abstract: | Liquidation of collateral are the primary safeguard for solvency of lending protocols in decentralized finance. However, the mechanics of liquidations expose these protocols to predatory price manipulations and other forms of Maximal Extractable Value (MEV). In this paper, we characterize the optimal liquidation strategy, via a dynamic program, from the perspective of a profit-maximizing liquidator when the spot oracle is given by a Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM). We explicitly model Oracle Extractable Value (OEV) where liquidators manipulate the CPMM with sandwich attacks to trigger profitable liquidation events. We derive closed-form liquidation bounds and prove that CPMM transaction fees act as a critical security parameter. Crucially, we demonstrate that fees do not merely reduce attacker profits, but can make such manipulations unprofitable for an attacker. Our findings suggest that CPMM transaction fees serve a dual purpose: compensating liquidity providers and endogenously hardening CPMM oracles against manipulation without the latency of time-weighted averages or medianization. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.12104 |
| By: | Rodrigo Cuenca-de-Armas (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Luisa Alamá-Sabater (Department of Economics and IIDL, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Miguel Ángel Márquez (Department of Economics, Universidad de Extremadura, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the complex interrelationships between bank branches, employment, and population dynamics in Spanish municipalities from 2008 to 2019. Using a simultaneous equations model based on Carlino and Mills’ (1987) framework, we analyse data from 8, 014 municipalities to investigate whether people follow jobs and financial services, whether jobs follow people and financial services, and whether financial services follow people and jobs. Our findings reveal a bidirectional relationship between population and employment, with employment following population more strongly than vice versa, particularly in urban areas. We also find a bidirectional relationship between population and bank branches, with bank branches following population more intensely than population following bank branches. Interestingly, no significant relationship was observed between employment and bank branches. Furthermore, our results indicate that bank branch closures influenced depopulation in certain territories, though banks primarily responded to rather than caused population movements. These decisions were not significantly influenced by the percentage of elderly residents in municipalities. Additionally, we find that rural and intermediate municipalities with higher per capita income gained population during the study period. Our research contributes to the literature on financial inclusion, left-behind places, and regional development by providing empirical evidence on the role of banking services in economic activity and population dynamics in Spain. |
| Keywords: | bank branches; depopulation; financial inclusion; left-behind places; simultaneous equations |
| JEL: | G21 R23 R11 O18 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/04 |
| By: | Bartosz Bieganowski; Robert \'Slepaczuk |
| Abstract: | We document stable cross-asset patterns in cryptocurrency limit-order-book microstructure: the same engineered order book and trade features exhibit remarkably similar predictive importance and SHAP dependence shapes across assets spanning an order of magnitude in market capitalization (BTC, LTC, ETC, ENJ, ROSE). The data covers Binance Futures perpetual contract order books and trades on 1-second frequency starting from January 1st, 2022 up to October 12th, 2025. Using a unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with a direction-aware GMADL objective and time-series cross validation, we show that feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility. We connect these SHAP structures to microstructure theory (order flow imbalance, spread, and adverse selection) and validate tradability via a conservative top-of-book taker backtest as well as fixed depth maker backtest. Our primary novelty is a robustness analysis of a major flash crash, where the divergent performance of our taker and maker strategies empirically validates classic microstructure theories of adverse selection and highlights the systemic risks of algorithmic trading. Our results suggest a portable microstructure representation of short-horizon returns and motivate universal feature libraries for crypto markets. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00776 |
| By: | Michael D. Bordo |
| Abstract: | On the fiftieth anniversary of Milton Friedman receiving the Nobel Prize in economics, I reflect on the legacy of monetarism – his revolutionary idea. Friedman developed the modern quantity of money in 1956 as a challenge to the prevailing Keynesian view that “money did not matter.” Friedman’s empirical and historical research made a strong case that changes in the money supply, largely instituted by the monetary authorities, account for much of the macro instability in the twentieth century including the Great Recession 1929-1933 and the Great Inflation 1965 -1982. Friedman’s ideas were at the base of the creation of modern macroeconomics, and of the adoption by many central banks of rules based monetary policy as a guidepost to maintain credibility for low inflation. His emphasis on monetary aggregates as the key monetary policy tool has been superseded by the use of policy interest rates, but the monetary aggregates are still useful as a crosscheck against incipient high inflation. |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E32 E41 E42 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34765 |
| By: | Mitrovic, Aleksandar; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | E‐commerce data enable economists to study a range of economic phenomena, ranging from price dynamics, market structure and product entry and innovation, consumer demand and behaviour, and pass‐through of input costs to final retail prices. In this paper we compare developments in e‐commerce prices to official estimates of consumer good inflation in South Africa. We highlight measurement challenges and differences between online list prices and officially surveyed statistics from discounting, product changes and product availability over time. We also evaluate online discounting behaviour for specific products and product categories, especially during Black Friday sales, and quantify online price persistence in South Africa. We show that e‐commerce prices experience changes at a broadly similar frequency as our estimates imply for official measures of consumer prices. Our analysis suggests real‐time alternative data are important, not just for forecasting, but also for understanding the nature of price dynamics in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | E‐commerce, big data, real‐time data |
| JEL: | E31 C81 L81 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:336211 |
| By: | Shengwei You; Aditya Joshi; Andrey Kuehlkamp; Jarek Nabrzyski |
| Abstract: | Algorithmic stablecoins promise decentralized monetary stability by maintaining a target peg through programmatic reserve management. Yet, their reserve controllers remain vulnerable to regime-blind optimization, calibrating risk parameters on fair-weather data while ignoring tail events that precipitate cascading failures. The March 2020 Black Thursday collapse, wherein MakerDAO's collateral auctions yielded $8.3M in losses and a 15% peg deviation, exposed a critical gap: existing models like SAS systematically omit extreme volatility regimes from covariance estimates, producing allocations optimal in expectation but catastrophic under adversarial stress. We present MVF-Composer, a trust-weighted Mean-Variance Frontier reserve controller incorporating a novel Stress Harness for risk-state estimation. Our key insight is deploying multi-agent simulations as adversarial stress-testers: heterogeneous agents (traders, liquidity providers, attackers) execute protocol actions under crisis scenarios, exposing reserve vulnerabilities before they manifest on-chain. We formalize a trust-scoring mechanism T: A -> [0, 1] that down-weights signals from agents exhibiting manipulative behavior, ensuring the risk-state estimator remains robust to signal injection and Sybil attacks. Across 1, 200 randomized scenarios with injected Black-Swan shocks (10% collateral drawdown, 50% sentiment collapse, coordinated redemption attacks), MVF-Composer reduces peak peg deviation by 57% and mean recovery time by 3.1x relative to SAS baselines. Ablation studies confirm the trust layer accounts for 23% of stability gains under adversarial conditions, achieving 72% adversarial agent detection. Our system runs on commodity hardware, requires no on-chain oracles beyond standard price feeds, and provides a reproducible framework for stress-testing DeFi reserve policies. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.22168 |
| By: | Becker, Marco; Daube, Carl Heinz; Peskes, Markus; Reinking, Ernst; Semenischev, Corinna |
| Abstract: | In diesem Working Paper wird digitale Resilienz als strategische Metakompetenz für Organisationen im Kontext disruptiver Transformation untersucht. Dazu werden sechs zentrale Problemfelder - von technologischer Komplexität über Cyber-Bedrohungen bis hin zu kultureller Trägheit - analysiert und ihre Wechselwirkungen dargestellt. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass digitale Resilienz die Integration technologischer, organisatorischer und menschenzentrierter Dimensionen erfordert. Regulatorische Anforderungen (NIS-2, DORA, ISO-Standards) bilden den verbindlichen Rahmen, während Zukunftskompetenzen auf individueller, sozialer und organisationaler Ebene das Fundament bilden. Die Arbeit identifiziert charakteristische Erkennungsmerkmale digital resilienter Unternehmen und entwickelt ein integratives Framework für die praktische Umsetzung. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines digital resilience as a strategic meta-competency for organizations undergoing disruptive transformation. Six central problem areas are analyzed, ranging from technological com-plexity and cyber threats to cultural inertia, and their interdependencies are illustrated. The study shows that digital resilience requires integrating technological, organizational, and human-centered dimensions. While regulatory requirements (NIS-2, DORA, and ISO standards) provide the binding framework, future competencies at the individual, social, and organizational levels form the foundation. The paper identifies the defining characteristics of digitally resilient enterprises and proposes an integrative framework for practical implementation. |
| Keywords: | Unternehmensresilienz, Organisationale Anpassung, Digitale Transformation, Cybersecurity, Digitale Resilienz, Risikomanagement |
| JEL: | M15 O33 D81 M12 K24 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:336212 |
| By: | Samiha Tariq |
| Abstract: | Do online narratives leave a measurable imprint on prices in markets for digital or cultural goods? This paper evaluates how community attention and sentiment relate to valuation in major Ethereum NFT collections after accounting for time effects, market-wide conditions, and persistent visual heterogeneity. Transaction data for large generative collections are merged with Reddit-based discourse measures available for 25 collections, covering 87{, }696 secondary-market sales from January 2021 through March 2025. Visual differences are absorbed by a transparent, within-collection standardized index built from explicit image traits and aggregated via PCA. Discourse is summarized at the collection-by-bin level using discussion intensity and lexicon-based tone measures, with smoothing to reduce noise when text volume is sparse. A mixed-effects specification with a Mundlak within--between decomposition separates persistent cross-collection differences from within-collection fluctuations. Valuations align most strongly with sustained collection-level attention and sentiment environments; within collections, short-horizon negativity is consistently associated with higher prices, and attention is most informative when measured as cumulative engagement over multiple prior windows. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.01531 |
| By: | Samuel W. Akingbade |
| Abstract: | Financial markets exhibit temporal organization that is not fully captured by volatility measures or linear correlation structure. We study a null validated topological approach for quantifying market complexity and apply it to Bitcoin daily log returns. The analysis uses the $L^1$ norm of persistence landscapes computed from sliding-window delay embeddings. This quantity shows strong co-movement with stochastic volatility during periods of market stress, but remains intermittently elevated during low volatility regimes, indicating dynamical structure beyond fluctuation scale. Rolling correlation analysis reveals that the dependence between geometry and volatility is not stationary. Surrogate based null models provide statistical validation of these observations. Rejection of shuffle surrogates rules out explanations based on marginal distributions alone, while departures from phase randomized surrogates indicate sensitivity to nonlinear and phase dependent temporal organization beyond linear correlations. These results demonstrate that persistence landscape norms provide complementary information about market dynamics across market conditions. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00383 |
| By: | Nocciola, Luca |
| Abstract: | We document empirically the money demand by European non-financial corporations by exploiting a unique and brand-new survey on their cash usage in a stress period. We also assess: (i) the relation between cash held and firm size; and (ii) estimate point values of cash holdings and carry out statistical comparisons along the sectoral and country dimensions. First, we find that cash holdings are inversely related to firm size, providing additional evidence that Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) tend to store more cash relative to their larger peers. Second, we find that cash-intensive sectors and” cash-friendly” countries display right-shifted distributions of cash holdings with statistically-significant larger average holdings. We argue that in a low interest rate and low inflation environment cash holdings serve as a store of value for European firms, in particular for SMEs which are more likely to be financially constrained, especially in crisis times. JEL Classification: D22, D25, E41, G01, G32 |
| Keywords: | cash demand, financial crisis, monetary economics, precautionary savings, store of value |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263182 |