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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
| By: | Serkan Arslanalp; Barry Eichengreen; Chima Simpson-Bell |
| Abstract: | We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent with our findings in our earlier papers. In addition we look to the future, pondering the potential implications of dollar-linked stablecoins, the expansion of the BRICS grouping of countries and their de- dollarization plans, the development of blockchain-based platforms such as Project mBridge for the direct exchange of central bank digital currencies, and questions about the dollar’s safe-haven status. |
| JEL: | F0 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34478 |
| By: | Anna L. Paulson |
| Abstract: | Philadelphia Fed President and CEO Anna Paulson’s opening remarks set the tone for two days of dynamic discussion at the Ninth Annual Fintech Conference. In her remarks, Paulson emphasized the need for a wide range of voices to come together to discuss how to harness the opportunities of fintech while ensuring the integrity of our financial system and consumer protections without stifling innovation. “The rapid convergence of cutting-edge technologies with traditional financial infrastructure creates unprecedented opportunities and equally significant challenges that no single perspective can address, ” she said. |
| Date: | 2025–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpsp:102104 |
| By: | Wenli Cheng (Department of Economics Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the classical Ricardian model from a barter system to a monetary framework which emphasizes the pivotal role of the banking system in facilitating production and exchange. It studies international trade under three different monetary systems: (1) the Euro system, where a single currency facilitates both domestic and international trade; (2) the Bancor system, which relies on a supranational currency for trade between nations; and (3) the Dollar system, where one country’s national currency serves as the international media of exchange. The model preserves the Ricardian insight that specialization based on comparative advantage enhances global wealth, and identifies distinct features arising from different monetary systems. It shows that neither the Euro nor the Bancor system inherently generates trade imbalances. In contrast, the Dollar system imposes an asymmetric demand for the national currency used to conduct global trade. Since the currency demanded must be earned through net exports, trade imbalances are an intrinsic feature of the Dollar system. |
| Keywords: | : Ricardian model, the Euro sy |
| JEL: | F10 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-19 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil; Omidi, Vahid; Ahmadian-Yazdi, Fazaneh |
| Abstract: | Countries with significant fossil fuel deposits may start to think about mining coins if the price of fossil fuels drops. This suggests that countries that export energy may decide to use the power produced from their fossil fuel stockpiles as a substitute method of cryptocurrency mining. To determine the extent of this trend, this research employs the TVP-VAR-EJC model to analyze the vulnerability and impact of the renewable energy market, cryptocurrencies, and fossil fuel energy between 18/01/2018 and 17/02/2023. The results reveal that the cryptocurrency market transmitted net shocks throughout the majority of the period. While the intensity of this relationship decreased in recent months, there is not enough evidence to validate the claim that energy-rich countries typically employ fossil fuels as a cryptocurrency mining input. |
| Keywords: | Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Bitcoin, Ethereum, TVP-VAR, Graph Theory |
| JEL: | C58 G11 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126833 |
| By: | Leonardo Gambacorta; Nico Lauridsen; Samir Kiuhan-Vásquez; Jermy Prenio |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the institutional drivers of adopting supervisory technology (suptech) by financial authorities worldwide. Using survey data from 112 financial authorities across 97 countries from the State of SupTech Report, we analyse how organisational characteristics and strategic frameworks shape the adoption of suptech initiatives. The analysis employs a two-stage hurdle model to track adoption from proof of concept to prototype, and finally to full deployment. We find that authorities with institution-wide strategies for digital transformation, data governance, and suptech deployment use, on average, about 20 additional applications and face fewer design and implementation challenges. Furthermore, while an authority's size and institutional mandate are significant factors in initiating advanced projects, the establishment of a dedicated suptech unit is the most critical factor in increasing the number of deployed applications. Finally, we find that public cloud adoption is associated with a higher probability of implementing AI tools, while reliance on in-house development is strongly associated with early-stage AI experimentation. |
| Keywords: | suptech, financial supervision, technology adoption, financial authorities |
| JEL: | G28 O33 C25 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1309 |
| By: | Srichander Ramaswamy (The South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre) |
| Abstract: | Many central banks are assessing the benefits that a wholesale central bank digital currency (wCBDC) could bring to the financial system. This assessment is being driven by the rise of tokenised assets and the need for efficient and safe settlement assets in these markets. While wCBDCs can facilitate settlements on distributed ledger technology platforms for such assets, some central banks are of the view that existing systems (like the RTGS) can achieve similar outcomes through application programming interfaces without the need to introduce a new central bank liability. Beyond settlement of tokenised assets, wCBDC is also being seen having the potential in offering many benefits to cross-border payments by reducing settlement times and transaction costs. That is because existing arrangements employing correspondent banking models introduce frictions by having multiple intermediaries that introduce counterparty risk and longer settlement times. They are also costly as they need pre-funded nostro accounts. In theory, wCBDCs can eliminate the need for correspondent banks by allowing direct settlements between central banks, but this raises questions about central banks' willingness to assume correspondent roles. Alternative arrangements using automated market makers can also facilitate foreign exchange trading using wCBDCs, but their effectiveness and cost efficiency in less liquid currency pairs remain uncertain. The exploration of wCBDCs should, therefore, consider the existing capabilities of the financial system and the potential for private sector solutions to meet market needs effectively. |
| Keywords: | Central banks, digital currency, cross-border payment, correspondent bank, tokenisation, large value payments. |
| JEL: | E42 E58 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sea:wpaper:wp57 |
| By: | Ngunza Maniata, Kevin |
| Abstract: | Financial inclusion has become a cornerstone of development policy, yet progress across low-income and fragile states remains uneven. This paper examines the evolution of financial inclusion in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using recent data from the World Bank’s Global Findex 2025 and the GSMA’s 2025 Mobile Money Report. Despite global account ownership reaching 79 percent of adults, fewer than 40 percent of Congolese adults hold a formal financial account. The study situates the DRC within an institutional economics framework and highlights structural constraints including informality, weak trust in financial institutions, limited infrastructure, and low financial literacy. The analysis finds that while mobile money is expanding access, its impact depends on improvements in digital infrastructure, governance, and consumer protection. The paper concludes that inclusive finance in the DRC requires not only technological diffusion but also the rebuilding of institutional credibility and human capital. |
| Keywords: | Financial inclusion; Digital finance; Mobile money; Democratic Republic of the Congo; Institutional trust; Inclusive growth |
| JEL: | G21 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2025–11–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126774 |
| By: | Marzia Morena; Tommaso Truppi |
| Abstract: | Limited funds for public works and bureaucratic limitations in the allocation of public money push Public Administrations to identify different way to collect additional resources in order to finance projects and social activities. Innovative alternative instruments as civic crowdfunding could be helpful to ease this critical situation in different fields of intervention, from social impact schemes to the preservation and enhancement of environment and the cultural heritage. Civic crowdfunding could provide public authorities with a transparent decision-making process for implementing these projects, giving citizens the opportunity to contribute. This paper highlights the potentialities of civic crowdfunding related to small Italian municipalities, including some case studies, pointing out its strengths and weaknesses, starting from an analysis carried out by the Permanent Observatory on Local Public Administration (OPPAL) of the REC Real Estate Center of the ABC Department of Politecnico di Milano. |
| Keywords: | Civic Crowdfunding; small Italian municipalities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_21 |
| By: | Mary C. Daly |
| Abstract: | Speech to the Institute of International and European Affairs (IIEA), Dublin, Ireland, November 13, 2025, 1:00 p.m. GMT (5:00 a.m. PT), by Mary C. Daly, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. |
| Keywords: | central banking; monetary policy; balance sheet |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfsp:102110 |
| By: | Nicolás Cachanosky; Emilio Ocampo; Karla Hernández; John Ramseur |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact on income per capita of dollarization in Ecuador using synthetic control analysis (SCA). The results support the hypothesis that dollarization can have a positive impact on economic growth. Such conclusion is very relevant for countries with high, persistent and volatile inflation considering dollarization as a currency regime. |
| Keywords: | Ecuador, dollarization, synthetic control analysis |
| JEL: | E42 E50 O43 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cem:doctra:877 |
| By: | Giulio Cornelli |
| Abstract: | Using novel US data from multiple platforms over 2019–25, I show that real estate tokenisation fills gaps in traditional markets. The supply of tokenised real estate is driven by pricing, demand, liquidity and supply in the physical property market. These factors affect the supply of traditional real estate properties and Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) portfolios differently. Areas with limited access to credit see more rapid growth in tokenised properties, suggesting tokenisation may bridge gaps in access to real estate. Finally, to test whether tokenisation can address liquidity gaps, I analyse trading activity around natural disasters as an exogenous liquidity shock. Trading in tokenised properties rises by 35% cumulatively over the two days following a disaster. This suggests that tokenisation can preserve liquidity when it typically dries up, but only if platforms provide buyback features, which comes with higher insolvency risk. |
| Keywords: | real estate, tokenisation, tokenised real world assets, tokenised housing, liquidity |
| JEL: | D02 G12 O33 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1311 |
| By: | Nicola Cetorelli; Saketh Prazad |
| Abstract: | In light of the rapid growth of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs), many have argued that bank-led financial intermediation is on the decline, based on the traditional notion that banks operate to take in deposits and make loans. However, we argue that deposit-taking and loan-making have not accurately characterized U.S. banking operations in recent decades. Instead, as we propose in this post, absent regulatory restrictions, banks naturally expand their boundaries to include NBFI subsidiaries. A significant component of the growth of NBFIs has in fact taken place inside the boundaries of banking firms. |
| Keywords: | banking firm; bank holding companies; firm boundaries; nonbank financial institutions |
| JEL: | G01 G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:102118 |
| By: | Marijana Sreckovic; Bernhard Wurdinger |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the potential of blockchain technology for real estate development, focusing on the economic, legal, and technical conditions necessary for implementing tokenization in this sector. Real estate development is traditionally a high-risk and capital-intensive activity, often characterized by expensive financing and lengthy project timelines. Blockchain technology offers a promising solution by enabling the division of property ownership and preliminary project development into digital tokens, allowing for more efficient financing and liquidity. The study examines the conditions under which tokenization can be implemented in real estate projects, explores suitable token structures, and analyzes its impact on the project conception phase. It also considers how the type and intended use of a property influence tokenization strategies. Through expert interviews, the empirical analysis identifies potential applications and challenges. The findings suggest that blockchain technology holds significant potential for transforming real estate development, creating new business models, and enhancing efficiency. However, the successful standardization of tokenization requires its integration into the entire project development process. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain technology; Financing; New business models; tokenization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_157 |
| By: | Markus Brunnermeier; Jonathan Payne |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how digital payment ledgers operated by BigTech platforms and central banks can expand uncollateralized credit. However, policymakers face a trilemma-no system can simultaneously achieve efficient credit enforcement, limit rent extraction, and preserve user privacy. Monopolistic platforms enforce repayment but compromise privacy and extract rents; public or privacy-respecting ledgers protect users but weaken enforcement; platform co-opetition or programmable public ledgers balance enforcement and rents, but only by reducing privacy. |
| Keywords: | ledgers, platform money, CBDC, currency competition, private currencies, industrial organisation of payments, platforms, big tech, trilemma |
| JEL: | E42 E51 G23 L51 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1306 |
| By: | Babolmorad, N.; Bossaerts, P.; Massoud, N. |
| Abstract: | Over 60% of younger retail investors rely on social media platforms like StockTwits for trading insights, displacing traditional investment advice and creating a new form of financial disintermediation. This paper provides a novel contribution by examining how investment advice diffuses through financial social networks and how professionals navigate these platforms in an attempt to avoid disintermediation. Using StockTwits data, we identify users whose messages go viral, so-called effective influencers, and assess how network structure and message content shape influence. We find that professionals strategically assert dominance, being 366% more likely than regular users to post viral messages, while avoiding partisan or emotionally charged content. Despite this influence, their activity declined sharply after 2018. We show that this decline was caused by intensified SEC and FINRA oversight. Unlike historical patterns - where regulatory reforms typically prompt gradual behavioral change if there is a change at all - the StockTwits case reveals a strong and immediate regulatory impact. Overall, the findings suggest that regulation rather than platform design or user behavior caused disintermediation in investment advice, with important consequences for how retail investors access and interpret financial advice. |
| Keywords: | Financial Social Networks, Retail Investors, Social Influence, Investment Advisors, Disintermediation of Investment Advice, Government Policy and Regulatory Over-reach |
| JEL: | D91 G23 G28 G50 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2576 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Cyber security is recognized as one of the major risks in Switzerland by both authorities and financial market players. With the advancement of digitalization in Switzerland, cyber incidents have been increasing in frequency and sophistication, including in the financial sector. Both the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), the key institutions overseeing cyber risk, are tagging it as a significant threat to the financial sector. |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/296 |
| By: | Qian'ang Mao; Yuxuan Zhang; Jiaman Chen; Wenjun Zhou; Jiaqi Yan |
| Abstract: | As Decentralized Finance (DeFi) develops, understanding user intent behind DeFi transactions is crucial yet challenging due to complex smart contract interactions, multifaceted on-/off-chain factors, and opaque hex logs. Existing methods lack deep semantic insight. To address this, we propose the Transaction Intent Mining (TIM) framework. TIM leverages a DeFi intent taxonomy built on grounded theory and a multi-agent Large Language Model (LLM) system to robustly infer user intents. A Meta-Level Planner dynamically coordinates domain experts to decompose multiple perspective-specific intent analyses into solvable subtasks. Question Solvers handle the tasks with multi-modal on/off-chain data. While a Cognitive Evaluator mitigates LLM hallucinations and ensures verifiability. Experiments show that TIM significantly outperforms machine learning models, single LLMs, and single Agent baselines. We also analyze core challenges in intent inference. This work helps provide a more reliable understanding of user motivations in DeFi, offering context-aware explanations for complex blockchain activity. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.15456 |
| By: | Ghulam Mustafa (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Muhammad Hamza Amjad |
| Abstract: | Blockchain technology has the potential to transform Pakistan`s industrial sector, particularly the real estate market, by enhancing transparency, reducing transaction costs, and minimising market frictions. While blockchain adoption is increasing globally to improve market efficiency, Pakistan remains behind in integrating this technology. This study aims to bridge this gap by simulating the impact of blockchain adoption on real estate market efficiency, focusing on Islamabad. Using an Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) approach, the study tests four key hypotheses: (i) the effect of blockchain on transparency and fraudulent cases, (ii) its impact on average sale time and liquidity, (iii) the role of price discovery in the absence of traditional dealers, and (iv) changes in transaction costs due to blockchain implementation. The simulation results reveal that blockchain adoption significantly enhances market efficiency by reducing asymmetric information, increasing transparency, improving liquidity, and drastically lowering transaction costs. Through tokenisation, smart contracts, and decentralised ledgers, blockchain disrupts the role of intermediaries, leading to a more efficient and transparent market. By eliminating dealercentric liquidity and introducing decentralised mechanisms, Islamabad`s real estate sector can achieve true price discovery based on supply-demand dynamics rather than speculation. However, the Capital Development Authority (CDA) plays a crucial role as both regulator and innovator. Balancing blockchain`s disruptive potential with existing legal and institutional frameworks is essential for its successful implementation in Pakistan`s real estate sector. |
| Keywords: | Agent-Based Model, Blockchain Technology, REAL ESTATE |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:12 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Ajit Desai |
| Abstract: | Using prompt-based experiments with ChatGPT's reasoning model, we evaluate whether a generative artificial intelligence (AI) agent can perform high-level intraday liquidity management in a wholesale payment system. We simulate payment scenarios with liquidity shocks and competing priorities to test the agent's ability to maintain precautionary liquidity buffers, dynamically prioritize payments under tight constraints, and optimize the trade-off between settlement speed and liquidity usage. Our results show that even without domain-specific training, the AI agent closely replicates key prudential cash-management practices, issuing calibrated recommendations that preserve liquidity while minimizing delays. These findings suggest that routine cash-management tasks could be automated using general-purpose large language models, potentially reducing operational costs and improving intraday liquidity efficiency. We conclude with a discussion of the regulatory and policy safeguards that central banks and supervisors may need to consider in an era of AI-driven payment operations. |
| Keywords: | generative AI, agentic AI, LLM, payments systems, liquidity management |
| JEL: | A12 C7 D83 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1310 |
| By: | Arnold, René; Schneider, Anna |
| Abstract: | Digital-choice architectures are increasingly engineered to exploit cognitive bias, calling into question the European Union's long-standing "average consumer" benchmark. While the forthcoming Digital Fairness Act (DFA) promises stricter limits on manipulative design, the empirical basis for calibrating those limits remains patchy. This study supplies a consumer-centric evidence base. A total of 95 German shoppers were interviewed. As part of the interviews, they completed real online-purchase journeys while thinking aloud; their verbalizations were analyzed following qualitative thematic coding principles. Two cross-cutting themes emerged. (1) Context is King: the same countdown timer or scarcity claim was either ignored or decisive depending on task urgency, fulfilment trust and device constraints, revealing vulnerability as episodic rather than categorical. (2) The Opportunistic Consumer: far from helpless, participants deployed a previously under-reported coping repertoire comprising aggressive filter pruning, platform loyalty, strategic delay and voucher recycling to realign interfaces with their own goals. These tactics typically neutralized low-stakes nudges but broke down against post-purchase "roach motels" that thwart cancellation of newsletters or unwanted user accounts. The findings advance theory and policy in three ways. First, they map dual-process psychology onto concrete shopping stages, showing that System-1 heuristics can insulate as well as expose users to dark patterns. Second, they complicate the binary average versus vulnerable consumer doctrine by documenting situational autonomy and deliberate rule-bending. Third, they outline a risk-tiered regulatory template for the DFA: benign, reversible nudges may remain permissible, whereas lock-ins and highstakes, irreversible manipulations warrant heightened duty-of-care and streamlined redress. By grounding legal benchmarks in the lived realities of digital commerce, the study provides actionable guidance for legislators, competent authorities and platform designers seeking a proportionate path to genuinely fair online markets. |
| Keywords: | Dark Patterns, Digital Fairness Act, Digital Services Act, Consumer Behavior, Cognitive Bias |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itse25:331252 |
| By: | Hledik Juraj (European Commission - JRC); Konecny Jakub (European Commission - JRC); Christaras Vasileios (European Commission - JRC); Di Girolamo Francesca (European Commission - JRC); Kounelis Ioannis (European Commission - JRC); Pagano Andrea (European Commission - JRC); Bazzanini Andrea; Iacovone Massimo |
| Abstract: | "This progress report presents the current state of development of the CIPHER framework, an robust and scalable platform for monitoring crypto-asset markets, decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and blockchain-based financial activity. CIPHER’s role is to integrate blockchain-derived data with structured monitoring modules, covering areas such as market activity, financial stability risks, and systemic dependencies. The report outlines the methodological foundations, technical infrastructure, and preliminary analytical outputs achieved to date. All of this is contextualised within the recent technological and regulatory development of the crypto landscape.The report highlights key challenges and lessons learned, including data issues, the computational demands of large-scale blockchain analytics, and the need for interoperability and long-term sustainability. Finally, it provides a forward-looking roadmap for further development, including infrastructure scaling, feature enhancements, and deeper collaboration with EU and international stakeholders.The ultimate objective of CIPHER is to provide a policy-relevant, operationally sustainable monitoring and analytics tool capable of supporting EU institutions in supervisory, regulatory, and strategic decision-making related to crypto-assets and DeFi." |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143790 |
| By: | Anahit Poghosyan (Central Bank of Armenia); Gevorg Minasyan (Central Bank of Armenia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether financial behaviour, defined through credit history and current debt burden, can improve the modelling of automobile accident risk. Drawing on rich administrative data from Armenia's compulsory motor third party liability insurance system (CMTPL) combined with credit registry records, the study finds that weaker repayment histories are strongly associated with higher accident probabilities and larger claim amounts, potentially reflecting core behavioural traits that carry over into driving behaviour. Indicators of short-run financial strain add further explanatory power by capturing situational pressures not reflected in long-run patterns, with accident risk peaking when adverse credit histories coincide with elevated financial burden. These relationships hold across a range of empirical approaches - including negative binomial models and a monthly driver-level panel that accounts for congestion, weather, and other time-specific conditions - and they remain robust once driver income is included. In the panel estimates, both between-driver and within-driver components remain significant, indicating that even for the same individual, a deterioration in credit history or an increase in financial burden corresponds to a material rise in accident risk. In terms of distributional effects, Tweedie-based simulations show that gains in pricing accuracy come with disproportionate premium increases for financially vulnerable households, highlighting a central efficiency-equity trade-dilemma for regulators. |
| Keywords: | Credit History, Financial Distress, Driving Risk, Claim Severity, Credit-Based Underwriting |
| JEL: | G22 D14 D12 C23 C25 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ara:wpaper:wp-2025-03 |
| By: | Rashad Ahmed; James A. Clouse; Fabio Natalucci; Alessandro Rebucci; Geyue Sun |
| Abstract: | The GENIUS Act, recently signed into law, establishes a dual federal and state regulatory framework for stablecoins, effectively segmenting the USD stablecoin market into GENIUS-compliant stablecoins and those that are not. This paper discusses the use cases and potential benefits of stablecoins in terms of payment system efficiency and costs, as well as their substitutability with money market mutual funds and bank deposits. It then analyzes the financial stability risks associated with both GENIUS-compliant and unregulated stablecoins using empirical analysis and historical case studies. It concludes by discussing the economic implications of the emergence of a large dollar stablecoin ecosystem. The discussion is supported by a new survey of expert opinions canvassed through Large Language Model (LLM) analysis of all U.S. podcast episodes on stablecoins from January 20 to July 17, 2025. |
| JEL: | E42 F33 G21 G23 O33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34475 |
| By: | Rodrigo J. Raad (Cedeplar/UFMG); Juan Pablo Gama (Cedeplar/UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a general equilibrium framework that extends the Ramsey-Friedman taxation model by explicitly incorporating heterogeneous agents, competitive markets, and a central planner responsible for fiscal policy and debt management. Within this unified structure, the model captures the interaction between decentralized market outcomes and centralized policy instruments, while the adoption of quasi-linear preferences guarantees that the planner’s allocations remain time-consistent. Building on these foundations, we introduce a virtual monetary unit that emerges endogenously in equilibrium as a transaction-clearing service. This contribution addresses the open question of how to characterize money within general equilibrium theory, advancing the discussion by proposing a digital system that preserves purchasing power across regions and productive sectors in a stable, non-inflationary manner, without generating distortions in resource allocation. |
| Keywords: | General equilibrium, Stable Digital Currency, Ramsey-Friedman Taxation Model, Time Consistency |
| JEL: | D41 D50 D51 D53 D62 E42 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td688 |
| By: | Iñaki Aldasoro; Ajit Desai |
| Abstract: | Using prompt-based experiments with ChatGPT’s reasoning model, we evaluate whether a generative artificial intelligence (AI) agent can perform high-level intraday liquidity management in a wholesale payment system. We simulate payment scenarios with liquidity shocks and competing priorities to test the agent’s ability to maintain precautionary liquidity buffers, dynamically prioritize payments under tight constraints, and optimize the trade-off between settlement speed and liquidity usage. Our results show that even without domain-specific training, the AI agent closely replicates key prudential cash-management practices, issuing calibrated recommendations that preserve liquidity while minimizing delays. These findings suggest that routine cash-management tasks could be automated using general-purpose large language models, potentially reducing operational costs and improving intraday liquidity efficiency. We conclude with a discussion of the regulatory and policy safeguards that central banks and supervisors may need to consider in an era of AI-driven payment operations. |
| Keywords: | Digital currencies and fintech; Financial institutions; Financial services; Financial system regulation and policies; Payment clearing and settlement systems |
| JEL: | A12 C7 D83 E42 E58 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-35 |
| By: | Catalin Dumitrescu |
| Abstract: | This study explores the potential impact of introducing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability in an emerging dual-currency economy (Romania), where the domestic currency (RON) coexists with the euro. It develops an integrated analytical framework combining econometrics, machine learning, and behavioural modelling. CBDC adoption probabilities are estimated using XGBoost and logistic regression models trained on behavioural and macro-financial indicators rather than survey data. Liquidity stress simulations assess how banks would respond to deposit withdrawals resulting from CBDC adoption, while VAR, MSVAR, and SVAR models capture the macro-financial transmission of liquidity shocks into credit contraction and changes in monetary conditions. The findings indicate that CBDC uptake (co-circulating Digital RON and Digital EUR) would be moderate at issuance, amounting to around EUR 1 billion, primarily driven by digital readiness and trust in the central bank. The study concludes that a non-remunerated, capped CBDC, designed primarily as a means of payment rather than a store of value, can be introduced without compromising financial stability. In dual currency economies, differentiated holding limits for domestic and foreign digital currencies (e.g., Digital RON versus Digital Euro) are crucial to prevent uncontrolled euroisation and preserve monetary sovereignty. A prudent design with moderate caps, non remuneration, and macroprudential coordination can transform CBDC into a digital liquidity buffer and a complementary monetary policy instrument that enhances resilience and inclusion rather than destabilising the financial system. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.13384 |
| By: | Matteo Aquilina; Ulf Lewrick; Federico Ravenna; Lorenzo Schönleber |
| Abstract: | Tokenised money market funds (TMMFs) are a fast-growing collateral asset and savings instrument in the crypto ecosystem. Like stablecoins, TMMFs circulate on public permissionless blockchains but offer returns at money market rates and regulatory protections as securities. TMMFs currently cater strongly to decentralised finance protocols and rely on "allow-listing" of blockchain wallets to constrain peer-to-peer trading of their tokens to ensure regulatory compliance. However, such allow lists only constrain direct holding of TMMFs. TMMFs give rise to risks that mirror, and potentially amplify, those found in conventional money market funds, such as liquidity mismatches, as well as the operational and anti-money laundering / countering the financing of terrorism-related risks associated with stablecoins. |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:115 |
| By: | AYDIN, Samet (Maltepe University) |
| Abstract: | Customer Relationship Management (CRM), which gained rapid traction in the business world during the mid-1990s, soon lost its appeal due to numerous instances of failure, where substantial investments in system implementation failed to deliver the anticipated outcomes. The main reason for these failures was that businesses overly concentrated on the technological tools available at the time and their eagerness to use them while overlooking the core principles of the CRM approach, especially the strategic and human components. CRM is not just a technology; what truly matters are the business processes and human resources that implement them. Technology can only support these two essential components. Today, driven by advancements in information technology, shifts in consumer behavior and expectations due to e-commerce, mobile applications, and social media necessitate the redefinition and restructuring of CRM. In the Information Age, CRM has become indispensable for crafting, implementing, and enhancing value in the relationships between businesses and their customers. This paper discusses the reasons for CRM’s existence and its fundamental philosophy. In addition, it focuses on definitions related to CRM, its historical development, and the various ways in which it is important for businesses and their customers. |
| Date: | 2025–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j5qaz_v1 |