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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
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Issue of 2022‒07‒25
35 papers chosen by |
| By: | Holtfort, Thomas; Horsch, Andreas; Schwarz, Joachim |
| Abstract: | Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have caused intense discussions during recent years among market participants according to new options (such as payment or financing alternatives) and new risks (such as price volatility) involved. Despite being considered by various actors of private households, companies, financial, monetary, and political institutions, a theory-based understanding of this innovation and knowledge of their evolution is still limited. On a basic level, this holds for differences between cryptocurrencies on the one hand and traditional currencies, like paper money, gold or special assets, on the other. On a market level, factors driving the prices of cryptocurrencies appear to be of seminal meaning, in particular against the backdrop of recent market turmoil. Therefore, the paper conducts an empirical analysis of the five biggest cryptocurrencies (measured by market capitalization) with regard to their evolutionary development, price behaviour, and their impact for managers |
| Keywords: | cryptocurrencies,innovation,evolutionary economics |
| JEL: | E42 O30 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tufwps:202201&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | This study establishes economic growth needed for supply-side mobile money drivers in developing countries to be positively related to mobile money innovations in the perspectives of mobile money accounts, the mobile phone used to send money, and the mobile phone used to receive money. The empirical evidence is based on Tobit regressions. For the negative net relationships that are computed, minimum economic growth thresholds are established above which the net negative relationships become net positive relationships. The following minimum economic growth rates are required for nexuses between supply-side mobile money drivers and mobile money innovations to be positive: (i) 6.109% (6.193%) of GDP growth for mobile connectivity performance to be positively associated with the mobile phone used to send (receive) money and (ii) 4.590 % (4.259%) of GDP growth for mobile connectivity coverage to be positively associated with the mobile phone used to send (receive) money. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money; technology diffusion; financial inclusion; inclusive innovation |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:29009&r= |
| By: | Chang Su; Wenbo Lyu; Yueting Liu |
| Abstract: | By comparing the historical patterns of currency development, this paper pointed out the inevitability of the development of digital currency and the relationship between digital currency and the digital economy. With the example of China, this paper predicts the future development trend of digital currency. In the context of the rapid development of private cryptocurrency, China launched the digital currency based on serving the digital economy and committed to the globalization of the digital renminbi (RMB) and the globalization of the digital economy. The global economy in 2022 ushered in stagnation, and China treats digital fiat currency and the digital economy development as a breakthrough to pursue economic transformation and new growth. It has become one of the forefront countries with numerous experiences that can be learned by countries around the world. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.14517&r= |
| By: | Mr. Charles M. Kahn; Jihad Alwazir; Mr. Manmohan Singh |
| Abstract: | The rise of new and proposed monetary vehicles, including CBDC, stablecoins, payment service providers etc., are unprecedented. An important question for central banks is the extent to which these innovations upend the role of and implementation of monetary policy. The paper focuses on the interest rate channel and if digital money (especially CBDC) will change monetary policy and central bank operations. We argue that new policy instruments make sense only to the extent that there is limited substitutability between the various payment sectors. We analyze trends in currency-in-circulation, and how it may impact central bank’s seigniorage, monetary base, and transactional velocity of digital money if money demand declines. Liquidity outside the monetary base will also be important to understand. |
| Keywords: | Base money; CBDC; central banking operations; currency in circulation; digital money; mobile phone operators; seigniorage; central bank operations Charles Kahn; jihad Alwazir; lender-of-last-resort facilities; payments assets; phone company payments account; central bank profits; central bank regulation; Monetary base; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Commercial banks |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/085&r= |
| By: | Dyna Heng; Yoke Wang Tok |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of Fintech in financial inclusion. Using Global Findex data and emerging fintech indicators, we find that Fintech has a higher positive correlation with digital financial inclusion than traditional measures of financial inclusion. In the second stage of our empirical investigation, we examine the key factors that are correlated with the Fletcher School’s three digital divide – gender divide, class (rich-poor) divide and rural divide. The results indicate that greater use of fintech is significantly associated with a narrowing of the class divide and rural divide but there was no impact on the gender divide. These findings imply that Fintech alone may not be sufficient to close the gender gap in access to financial services. Fintech development may need to be complemented with targeted policy initiatives aimed at addressing the gender gap directly, and at changing attitudes and social norms across demographics. |
| Keywords: | Fintech; Financial Inclusion; Financial Development; Inequality; Fintech development; class divide; role of Fintech; appendix A. data definition; Fintech proxy; Digital financial services; Gender inequality; Mobile banking; East Asia; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; Global; Middle East; Southeast Asia |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/080&r= |
| By: | Po-Keng Cheng (Department of Finance and Cooperative Management, National Taipei University) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we apply an interactive agentbased model to investigate fundamentalists and positive-feedback traders behaviors in cryptocurrency markets. Our results suggested that fundamentalists pushed up cryptocurrency prices in some past periods. In addition, the cryptocurrency markets are instable and agitated. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin,Agent-based model,Noise traders,Fundamentalists,Speculative bubbles,Heavy tails |
| Date: | 2022–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03679207&r= |
| By: | Xiheng Jiang; Jianwei Xing; Jintao Xu; Eric Zou |
| Abstract: | Microgiving, a new form of digital fundraising, operates by soliciting minuscule, recurring donations from large numbers of potential donors. We evaluate a charity subscription program operated by Alibaba, China’s largest retail platform, which allows sellers to pledge a tiny portion of a product’s revenue (2 cents per order) to charity, with donations made automatically as transactions occur. We present three sets of descriptive findings. First, sellers tend to pick their best-selling products for charity subscription, and many did so right before sales promotion of the associated products. This suggests revenue-maximizing motives. Second, charity subscriptions are almost never canceled, despite limited evidence that they increase revenues; interview evidence suggests that sellers’ decision to keep donating is sustained by joys of giving that worth the tiny monetary sacrifices; we also observe sellers to purchase more charity-linked products themselves after they become charity subscribers. This suggests warm-glow utilities. Third, between 2018 and 2020, the program attracted more than 2 million Alibaba sellers and generated 1.2 billion yuan of charitable funds, representing one of China’s largest online fundraisers and accounts for 12% of the country’s overall online charitable sector. We conclude that digital platforms can create an incentive-compatible environment to scale up microgiving. |
| JEL: | D64 H41 L81 M14 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30102&r= |
| By: | Mr. Boileau Loko; Yuanchen Yang |
| Abstract: | Fintech, which delivers financial services digitally, promises to promote financial inclusion and close the gender gap. Using a novel fintech dataset for 114 economies worldwide, this paper shows that fintech adoption significantly improves female employment and reduces gender inequality, the effect being more pronounced in firms without traditional financial access. Fintech not only increases the number and ratio of female employees in the workforce, but also mitigates financial constraints of female-headed firms. Digital divide and poor institutions weaken such benefits. Endogeneity is accounted for by a fixed effects identification strategy. We conclude by providing policy recommendations and outlining avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | Fintech; Gender Inequality; Employment |
| Date: | 2022–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/108&r= |
| By: | Sei Sugino (Bank of Japan); Yuji Maruo (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Personal information is actively collected, processed, and transmitted against the backdrop of the digitalization of people's social activities and the rapid improvement of data analysis methods, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. In order for individuals and society to benefit from the effective use of personal information, it is important that a broad range of entities are able to have proper opportunities to use personal information with due consideration to privacy protection. To achieve this goal, self-management of private information is crucial, but not sufficient. There might remain considerable inefficiencies associated with "market failure" and "negative externalities." This article will provide an overview of international discussion of academics and policy makers regarding these issues. In particular, we will illustrate the mechanism, which might generate monopoly power of the digital platform companies, and potential implications of public digital payment instruments in light of eliminating inefficiencies arising from the less competitive market. |
| Keywords: | digital payments; privacy; data intermediaries; informational externalities |
| Date: | 2022–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev22e05&r= |
| By: | Michael Kitchener; Nandini Anantharama; Simon D. Angus; Paul A. Raschky |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new method to predict individual political ideology from digital footprints on one of the world's largest online discussion forum. We compiled a unique data set from the online discussion forum reddit that contains information on the political ideology of around 91,000 users as well as records of their comment frequency and the comments' text corpus in over 190,000 different subforums of interest. Applying a set of statistical learning approaches, we show that information about activity in non-political discussion forums alone, can very accurately predict a user's political ideology. Depending on the model, we are able to predict the economic dimension of ideology with an accuracy of up to 90.63% and the social dimension with and accuracy of up to 82.02%. In comparison, using the textual features from actual comments does not improve predictive accuracy. Our paper highlights the importance of revealed digital behaviour to complement stated preferences from digital communication when analysing human preferences and behaviour using online data. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.00397&r= |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | Compared to other regions of the world, the potential for information technology penetration in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is very high. Unfortunately, productivity levels in the region are also very low. This study investigates the importance of information technology in influencing the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on total factor productivity (TFP) dynamics. The focus is on 25 countries in SSA. Information technology is measured with mobile phone penetration and internet penetration, while the engaged TFP productivity dynamics are TFP, real TFP, welfare TFP, and real welfare TFP. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. The findings show that, with the exception of regressions pertaining to real TFP growth for which the estimations do not pass post-estimation diagnostic tests, it is apparent that information technology (i.e. mobile phone penetration and internet penetration) modulate FDI to positively influence TFP dynamics (i.e. TFP, welfare TFP, and welfare real TFP). Policy and theoretical implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Foreign Investment; Information Technology; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:29007&r= |
| By: | Austin Adams; Markus F. Ibert |
| Abstract: | Stablecoins---digital currencies pegged to an external reference (e.g., the US dollar)---play an increasingly important role in transacting digital currencies. However, with a peg to an external reference comes the risk that the peg breaks and, akin to runs on other financial instruments, the risk of a stablecoin run. |
| Date: | 2022–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-06-02&r= |
| By: | Jaros{\l}aw Kwapie\'n; Marcin W\k{a}torek; Marija Bezbradica; Martin Crane; Tai Tan Mai; Stanis{\l}aw Dro\.zd\.z |
| Abstract: | We analyse tick-by-tick data representing major cryptocurrencies traded on some different cryptocurrency trading platforms. We focus on such quantities like the inter-transaction times, the number of transactions in time unit, the traded volume, and volatility. We show that the inter-transaction times show long-range power-law autocorrelations that lead to multifractality expressed by the right-side asymmetry of the singularity spectra $f(\alpha)$ indicating that the periods of increased market activity are characterised by richer multifractality compared to the periods of quiet market. We show that the inter-transaction times show long-range power-law autocorrelations. These lead to multifractality expressed by the right-side asymmetry of the singularity spectra $f(\alpha)$ indicating that the periods of increased market activity are characterised by richer multifractality compared to the periods of quiet market. We also show that neither the stretched exponential distribution nor the power-law-tail distribution are able to model universally the cumulative distribution functions of the quantities considered in this work. For each quantity, some data sets can be modeled by the former, some data sets by the latter, while both fail in other cases. An interesting, yet difficult to account for, observation is that parallel data sets from different trading platforms can show disparate statistical properties. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.07831&r= |
| By: | Kim Oosterlinck; Ariane Reyns; Ariane Szafarz |
| Abstract: | How do major disruptive events, such as wars, affect the correlations between gold, Bitcoin, and financial assets? We address this question by estimating a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model before and during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results show that, after the outbreak of the war, the correlation between gold and stock markets dropped, confirming the diversification potential of gold during crises. The correlation between Bitcoin and oil declined as well. Meanwhile, the gold/Bitcoin correlation slightly decreased. Overall, our preliminary evidence suggests that gold and Bitcoin act as complements—rather than substitutes—for diversification purposes during international crises. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin; Gold; Portfolio diversification; 2022 Russian invasion |
| JEL: | G11 G15 F65 E44 |
| Date: | 2022–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/345041&r= |
| By: | Lila Rabinovich (University of Southern California); Francisco Perez-Arce (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a mixed-methods study to examine barriers to use of my Social Security (MySSA), and users\rquote experience of using MySSA. The quantitative phase of the study leveraged existing survey data to analyze the determinants of self-reported MySSA account use. For the qualitative phase, we interviewed 24 individuals about their views and experiences with online transactions generally and with Social Security specifically, and their perceptions of the MySSA platform as they navigated it during the interview. The quantitative analysis suggests that internet literacy and, more generally, educational levels are barriers to MySSA use. Current SSA beneficiaries and older respondents were significantly more likely to be aware of, have an account, and use MySSA. From the qualitative results, we learn that there are four key reasons for not creating a MySSA account: (1) lack of awareness of MySSA; (2) no perceived relevance/need; (3) security and privacy concerns; and (4) low internet/computer literacy. We also observe that, overall, users perceive the MySSA platform to be clear, navigable, and relevant. Nonretired, nonbeneficiary participants found the information on the platform to be particularly instructive and useful. Our findings suggest that for younger people especially, MySSA could be a potentially useful financial and retirement preparedness tool. We find that a key challenge to MySSA use is getting people to create an account in the first place and not their retention once they create an account. Further research may be warranted to address the barriers to using MySSA, increasing engagement with the platform, and realizing its potential as a key resource for retirement readiness. |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp428&r= |
| By: | Katayoon Beshkardana (Morgan State University, USA) |
| Abstract: | From the financial services sector to the management of sustainable supply chains, energy markets, and intellectual property, the world of business is hyped with the use of blockchain to carry its processes. Blockchain’s promise is to reduce agency costs and increase connectivity across markets. A sustainable blockchain ecosystem inevitably relies on factors of good governance including participation, rule of law, transparency, inclusiveness, effectiveness, and accountability. A workable governance model for a blockchain-based economy composes of monitoring, enforcement, and compliance mechanisms provided both by the technology itself and the government. This article is a reflection on the role of the private sector as well as the administrative state in regulating decentralized blockchain-based market. |
| Keywords: | blockchain, good governance, GDPR, Securities and Exchange Commission |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0162&r= |
| By: | Yanzhao Zou; Dorien Herremans |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.00648&r= |
| By: | Ms. Adina Popescu |
| Abstract: | Central banks around the world are increasingly exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This paper investigates the possible impacts of cross-border CBDCs on capital flows and financial stability in a simple open economy extension of a classical model of bank runs, augmented with the presence of a credible foreign central bank, which issues an account-based interest bearing CBDC available to nonresidents. The paper finds that the presence of a foreign CBDC which acts as an international safe asset may increase the risk of financial disintermediation in the domestic banking sector, which can be accompanied by higher and more volatile capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Central bank digital currency; CBDC; capital flows; open-economy; financial stability; deposit contract; capital flows volatility; cross-border CBDCs; model of bank runs; CBDC deposit; CBDC issuer; Central Bank digital currencies; Commercial banks; Foreign banks; Bank deposits; Capital account; Global |
| Date: | 2022–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/083&r= |
| By: | Sam Jones; Kunal Sen |
| Abstract: | Can digital labour market platforms reduce search frictions in either formal or informal labour markets? We study this question using a randomized experiment embedded in a tracer study of the work transitions of graduates from technical and vocational colleges in Mozambique. We implement an encouragement design, inviting graduates by SMS to join one of two local digital platforms: Biscate , a site to find freelancers for informal manual tasks; and Emprego , a conventional formal jobs website. |
| Keywords: | Job search, Search frictions, Unemployment, Mozambique, Labour market outcomes |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-69&r= |
| By: | Diane Coyle; Wendy Li |
| Abstract: | Data is a key digital economy input and its use is growing rapidly. Large online platforms using data at massive scale operate globally. The data gap between them and the incumbents they disrupt, a barrier to entry in the markets they dominate, affects not only firms but also aggregate innovation, investment and trade. Valuing data is problematic, yet this information is crucial for informed policy decisions on infrastructure and human capital as well as business investment decisions. In this paper we demonstrate a novel sectoral methodology for estimating the economic value of markets for data. Our conservative estimate of the market size for data in the global hospitality industry was US $43.2 billion in 2018, and it has been doubling its size every three years. Our method can provide industry-level and country-level information on data markets. The scale of data flows affects the international division of labor in the digital economy, with important policy implications. With many jurisdictions introducing different data protection and trade regimes, affecting the data gap and data access by market participants, we present a trade typology of countries and discuss their ability to benefit from data value creation. |
| Keywords: | data, digital, innovation, trade |
| JEL: | F1 F2 O3 |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:escoed:escoe-dp-2021-09&r= |
| By: | Marguerite DeLiema (University of Minnesota School of Social Work); Paul Witt (Federal Trade Commission, Division of Consumer Response and Operations) |
| Abstract: | Most Americans have received fraudulent calls from impostors claiming to be officials from the Social Security Administration (SSA). Callers threaten those who respond with arrest and suspension of their bank accounts and Social Security numbers, but charges can be removed if the target agrees to buy retail gift cards, wire money, or deposit cash in cryptocurrency ATMs. This paper uses mixed methods to analyze SSA imposter scam consumer reports from victims and attempted victims filed in the Consumer Sentinel. Qualitative analysis of 600 case narratives reveals that SSA impostors use the persuasion principals of authority, reciprocity, liking, and scarcity to put pressure on consumers to comply with their requests. Expressions of fear, anger, anticipation, and trust in the imposter were present in the victim case narratives. Qualitative findings were supported using a quantitative sentiment analysis of more than 200,000 consumer reports to count the frequency of emotion words in case narratives. Emotional expressions were significantly associated with reported victimization versus attempted victimization. Quantitative models show that older adult consumers are significantly less likely to report victimization relative to those 30 and younger, but older victims lose significantly more money per incident on average. Results also indicate that consumers from majority Black, Asian, and Hispanic communities are more likely report victimization, although victims from non-Hispanic White communities report higher average loses. Consumer education on government imposter scams, specifically targeting young people and minorities, as well as greater controls on retail gift card sales, might help limit consumer losses. |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp434&r= |
| By: | Cornellia, Ayu; Hermawan, Hary (Sekolah Tinggi Pariwisata AMPTA Yogyakarta, Indonesia); Sinangjoyo, Nikasius Jonet |
| Abstract: | Museum awareness through social media has been developing gradually. A the previous studies related to the topic found that museum social media was not well managed. It was related to the human resources competence in social media management even now it is defeated by the better solution to have consultant or outsourcing. Good museum management will certainly have a positive impact on the number of visits. However, not all museums have enough human resources and also have clear procedures for the use of related social media to increase the number of visits. The general objective of this study is to describe the maximum use of social media in order to increase the number of museum visits in Yogyakarta that specifically focusing on the types of social media and the strategies used to build awareness and interest in visiting the museum. The research method is a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach in Sonobudoyo and Sandi museums in Yogyakarta, Indonesia as both museums have active social media. The respondents were thirty-nine Instagram followers of Sonobudoyo and thirty-eight followers of Sandi's Instagram. This study concludes that the two museums have a good implementation of Social Media Marketing through Instagram and there is an increase in the number of visits after the social media users and entertainment content are well managed as the best strategy. It is suggested that the result of this study can provide solutions and input for other museums in Indonesia to become the preferred tourism destination to develop social media through the right Social Media Marketing (SMM) strategy to attract the attention and interest of visitors, especially young people as the targets set by the government. |
| Date: | 2021–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kz2gc&r= |
| By: | Dario Guarascio; Roman Stöllinger |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem and investigates its fit for digital tasks and ICT capital, which both represent endowment factors that are expected to shape the digital transformation. We use a theory-consistent methodology for calculating the measured net factor content of trade (Trefler and Zhu, 2010) and apply it to a unique dataset on digital and non-digital tasks performed in detailed occupations, as well as recent data on ICT capital stocks. Equipped with these data we provide new evidence on the factor-based trade patterns for 25 EU countries and use it to test the HOV theorem. Overall, the performance of the sign test and the rank test is good if not impressive. In 83% of the cases countries are net exporters of those factors with which they are abundantly endowed, with a higher score achieved for digital tasks than for ICT capital. We conclude that the fit of the HOV theorem for highly relevant endowments of the digital era is as good as that of traditional endowment factors |
| Keywords: | Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek theorem; factor content of trade; comparative advantages; digital tasks; ICT capital |
| JEL: | F11 F14 D57 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp223&r= |
| By: | Valerio Astuti (Bank of Italy); Marta Crispino (Bank of Italy); Marco Langiulli (Bank of Italy); Juri Marcucci (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Text data gathered from social media are extremely up-to-date and have a great potential value for economic research. At the same time, they pose some challenges, as they require different statistical methods from the ones used for traditional data. The aim of this paper is to give a critical overview of three of the most common techniques used to extract information from text data: topic modelling, word embedding and sentiment analysis. We apply these methodologies to data collected from Twitter during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate the influence the pandemic had on the Italian Twitter community and to discover the topics most actively discussed on the platform. Using these techniques of automated textual analysis, we are able to make inferences about the most important subjects covered over time and build real-time daily indicators of the sentiment expressed on this platform. |
| Keywords: | text as data, Twitter, big data, sentiment, Covid-19, topic analysis, word embedding |
| JEL: | C55 C14 C81 L82 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_692_22&r= |
| By: | Giovanni D’Alessio (Bank of Italy); Riccardo De Bonis (Bank of Italy); Matteo Piazza (Bank of Italy); Luigi Infante (Bank of Italy); Giorgio Nuzzo (Bank of Italy); Silvia Sabatini (Bank of Italy); Francesca Zanichelli (Bank of Italy); Romina Gambacorta (Bank of Italy); Guido de Blasio (Bank of Italy); Stefano Federico (Bank of Italy); Juri Marcucci (Bank of Italy); Laura Bartiloro (Bank of Italy); Elena San Martini (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides an overview of the main statistics produced by the Bank of Italy: financial accounts, monetary statistics, balance of payments, household and business surveys. The volume discusses the problems related to the measurement of economic phenomena, how statistics can be used for policy evaluation, the challenges for official statistics posed by globalization, the digital economy and big data. Finally, we show the policy adopted by the Bank of Italy for the dissemination of statistics and the role of the Research Data Center. |
| Keywords: | central bank statistics, financial accounts, monetary and banking statistics, balance of payment, household surveys, business surveys, financial literacy, policy evaluation, official statistics, globalization, digital economy, big data, dissemination |
| JEL: | C40 C80 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_693_22&r= |
| By: | Pouliakas, Konstantinos (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop)); Ranieri, Antonio (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop)) |
| Abstract: | The increasing use of online labour platforms as intermediaries for finding work – known as crowdwork or gig work – is a new form of 'hybrid' (solo)self-employment that hinges on the borders of dependent and self-employment. In this study we use a novel international dataset of online platform workers, the Cedefop Crowdlearn dataset, to analyse if engagement in hybrid digital self-employment could augment individuals' skills and hence potentially act as a stepping stone towards fuller entrepreneurship. We also examine if a digital proto-entrepreneurial experience is sustainable over time by analysing crowdworkers' satisfaction from their work. The paper's findings provide some support to the hypothesis that hybrid work experiences, especially when platform work is carried out alongside another dependent job, can facilitate additional and varied skill development done via one's secondary platform activity and potentially spur fuller entrepreneurial commitment. However, such skill formation dividends are deficient for part-time hybrids who are mostly driven towards solo self-employment out of necessity, making their journey from proto- to full entrepreneurship less feasible. Our paper provides additional evidence to the marked diversity and hybridity of different forms of (solo)self-employment in modern labour markets. |
| Keywords: | hybrid self-employment, platform/gig economy, crowdworkers, skills, learning, entrepreneurship, digitalisation |
| JEL: | J22 J24 J62 J28 L26 J49 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15344&r= |
| By: | Clark, Andrew; Mihailov, Alexander; Zargham, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a complex dynamic system subpopulation model for the construction and validation of a novel form of local complementary currency, namely the Grassroots Economics Foundation’s Community Inclusion Currency (CIC) implemented recently in Kenya. First, we highlight that CICs can act as a local liquidity-provision institutional device in poor or isolated economic regions, thereby serving as a market-based mechanism to alleviate poverty. Second, we elicit 50 heterogeneous utility types according to observed transactions behavior in our rich data set, i.e., via revealed – and recorded – preferences, and build a corresponding model and simulation at a meso-economic level. |
| Keywords: | Community Inclusion Currencies, Blockchain Technologies, Poverty Alleviation, Eliciting Utility Types, Complex Dynamic Systems, Subpopulation Simulation |
| Date: | 2022–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus051:8664&r= |
| By: | BROOCKS Annette (European Commission – JRC); DUCH BROWN Nestor (European Commission – JRC); MARTENS Bertin (European Commission – JRC) |
| Abstract: | Increased penetration of high-speed internet and rising numbers of internet users enable an ever-growing number of consumers to enjoy watching TV shows, films, and documentaries online. At the same time, cross-border access to audiovisual content is often blocked due to licensing deals between rights holders and streaming platforms. The aim of the study is to quantify the extent to which consumer welfare would change if geo-blocking restrictions were lifted within the EU, so that a title that is available in any EU country would be available for every EU consumer. We use a novel dataset of actual streaming patterns from SVoD service Netflix to estimate demand with a nested logit model. In a counterfactual analysis, we find that consumer surplus per capita EUwide would increase by 0.13% if geo-blocking restrictions were lifted within the EU. Consumer surplus per capita in the EU would on average increase even more, i.e. 0.31%, if frictionless streaming was possible between all countries in our sample. |
| Keywords: | Geo-blocking, Digital Single Market, Nested logit, audio-visual |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:decwpa:202108&r= |
| By: | TANAKA Kiyoyasu |
| Abstract: | Digital technology such as virtual meetings is key to communication and collaboration for multinational firms, but it is unclear what hinders their digital communication. This paper estimates barriers to digital communication by using a firm-level survey on foreign firms in Japan that faced an exogenous shock to adopt digital technology for communication extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic. Efficient communication depends on existing barriers to internal communication in firm organization and external communication with clients and customers. The results show that foreign firms perceive a greater issue of digital communication in both internal and external communication channels. Contrary to common assertions, digital communication is perceived as a greater issue in remote-work feasible sectors. Thus, digital technology does not eliminate existing barriers to face-to-face communication. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22058&r= |
| By: | Capucine Riom; Anna Valero |
| Abstract: | We present new data from a survey of 375 UK businesses conducted in July 2020 in partnership with the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which seeks to understand the way in which firms have innovated in response to the crisis. We find that the pandemic has caused enormous business disruption, which has prompted many firms to focus on innovation. Over 60% of firms report that they have adopted new technologies or management practices since the onset of the pandemic, while a third have invested in new digital capabilities. We find similar patterns in terms of the introduction of new products or services. We describe how these responses differ across types of businesses and find that previous technology adoption is a strong predictor of a rapid innovation response to the crisis, even after controlling for other factors. Nearly all firms report that they expect the adoption of new technologies or practices to be permanent and to have a positive impact on firm performance. We will test these predictions with a follow-up survey one year on. |
| Keywords: | Covid-19, business performance, innovation, CBI, UK |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcvd:cepcovid-19-009&r= |
| By: | Fulya Ersoy |
| Abstract: | While distance learning has become widespread, causal estimates regarding returns to effort in technology-assisted learning environments are scarce due to high attrition rates and endogeneity of effort. In this paper, I manipulate effort by randomly assigning students different numbers of lessons in a popular online language learning platform. Using administrative data from the platform and the instrumental variables strategy, I find that completing 9 Duolingo lessons, which corresponds to approximately 60 minutes of studying, leads to a 0.057-0.095 standard deviation increase in test scores. Comparisons to the literature and back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that distance learning can be as effective as in-person learning for college students for an introductory language course |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00756&r= |
| By: | Ms. Alina Carare; Mr. Yorbol Yakhshilikov; Dmitry Vasilyev; Aleksandra Babii |
| Abstract: | Traditional models relying on standard variables like the U.S. Hispanic unemployment rate fared well in explaining remittances to CAPDR and Mexico during the pre-pandemic period. However, they fail to predict the sustained growth in remittances since June 2020, including the significant increase in the average amount remitted. Using data from over 300 remittances corridors (from 23 U.S. states to 14 Salvadoran departments), we find that this increase is primarily explained by the dynamics of U.S. states real wages, as well as more temporary factors like U.S. unemployment relief (including the extraordinary pandemic support), U.S. states mobility, and COVID-19 infections at home. The paper also analyses what role the change in the modes of transmission of remittances, additional U.S. fiscal stimulus and U.S. labor market developments, especially in the sectors were CAPDR and Mexican migrants preponderantly work, play in explaining aggregate remittances growth. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19 pandemic; migrant remittances; international migration; remittances dynamics; B. panel Vector Autoregression Model; remittances growth; evolution of remittance; remittances to CAPDR country; Remittances; Real wages; COVID-19; Migration; Unemployment; Central America |
| Date: | 2022–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/092&r= |
| By: | Lei Liu; Guangli Lu; Wei Xiong |
| Abstract: | By comparing uncollateralized business loans made by a big tech lending program with conventional bank loans, we find that big tech loans tend to be smaller and have higher interest rates and that borrowers of big tech loans tend to repay far before maturity and borrow more frequently. These patterns remain for borrowers with access to bank credit. Our findings highlight the big tech lender’s roles in serving borrowers’ short-term liquidity rather than their long-term financing needs. Through this model, big tech lending facilitates credit to borrowers underserved by banks without experiencing more-severe adverse selection or incurring greater risks than banks (even during the COVID-19 crisis). |
| JEL: | G23 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30160&r= |
| By: | Conner Mullally; Sarah Janzen; Nicholas Magnan; Shruti Sharma; Bhola Shrestha |
| Abstract: | Gender norms may constrain the ability of women to develop their entrepreneurial skills, particularly in rural areas. By bringing entrepreneurial training to women rather than requiring extended time away from home, mobile technology could open doors that would otherwise be closed. We randomly selected Nepali women to be trained as veterinary service providers known as community animal health workers. Half of the selected candidates were randomly assigned to a traditional training course requiring 35 consecutive days away from home, and half were assigned to a hybrid distance learning course requiring two shorter stays plus a table-based curriculum to be completed at home. Distance learning strongly increases women's ability to complete training as compared to traditional training. Distance learning has a larger effect than traditional training on boosting the number of livestock responsibilities women carry out at home, while also raising aspirations. Both training types increase women's control over income. Our results indicate that if anything, distance learning produced more effective community animal health workers. |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2206.03919&r= |
| By: | Thomas M. Eisenbach; Anna Kovner; Michael Junho Lee |
| Abstract: | We analyze how systemic cyber risk in the wholesale payments network relates to adverse financial conditions. We show that at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, payment activity increased, became more concentrated, and showed intraday liquidity stress. Cyber vulnerability was elevated in late February and early March 2020, with the potential impact of a cyberattack about 40 percent greater than in the remainder of 2020. Policy interventions to stabilize markets mitigated cyber vulnerability, particularly corresponding to large increases in aggregate reserves. We observe that cyber vulnerability and other financial shocks cannot be treated as uncorrelated risks and policy solutions for cyber security need to be calibrated for adverse financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | cyber; banks; networks; payments; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | G12 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2022–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:94414&r= |