nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2021‒02‒01
thirty papers chosen by

  1. Digitization and the Evolution of Money as a Social Technology of Account By Michael Peneder
  2. Designing Central Bank Digital Currencies By Itai Agur; Anil Ari; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
  3. Distributional Effects of Payment Card Pricing and Merchant Cost Pass-through in the United States and Canada By Marie-Hélène Felt; Fumiko Hayashi; Joanna Stavins; Angelika Welte
  4. Why Do People Switch Mobile Platforms? By Khurram, Anoshay; Hashmi, Rabia; Khalid, Saaniya; Ali, Areesha; Khan, Muhammad Shams-UR-Rehman
  5. Moving Minds and Money: The Political Economy of Migrant Transfers By Martina Metzger; Jennifer Pédussel Wu
  6. Data (r)evolution - The economics of algorithmic search and recommender services By Budzinski, Oliver; Gänßle, Sophia; Lindstädt-Dreusicke, Nadine
  7. Fintech and Payments Regulation: Analytical Framework By Tanai Khiaonarong; Terry Goh
  8. Measuring overall convenience of consumers on online shopping and their behavioral intention By Munshi, M.Faris Uddin; Hussain, Hammad; Ahmed, Muneeb; Idress, Amir
  9. Fintech Lending and Sales Manipulation By Rishabh, Kumar; Schäublin, Jorma
  10. Identifying the effect of Digital Marketing channels on the growth of SME in South Asia: A Case Study on Faheem Haydar Dealzmag By James, Liam
  11. Bridging the Mobile Digital Divide in Sub-Saharan Africa: Costing under Demographic Change and Urbanization By Emre Alper; Michal Miktus
  12. Consumer Behavior in a Health Crisis: What Happened with Cash? By Kevin Foster; Claire Greene
  13. Self-sustained price bubbles driven by Bitcoin innovations and adaptive behavior By Misha Perepelitsa; Ilya Timofeyev
  14. Cuarta revolución industrial, automatización y digitalización: una visión desde la periferia de la Unión Europea en tiempos de pandemia By Francisco-Javier Braña Pino
  15. Ghana Digital Economy Diagnostic By World Bank Group
  16. IT/IS strategy research and digitalization: An extensive literature review By Teubner, Alexander; Stockhinger, Jan
  17. Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies By Corinne Deléchat; Lama Kiyasseh; Margaux MacDonald; Rui Xu
  18. Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked By Joannes Mongardini; Aneta Radzikowski
  19. Development of cloud, digital technologies and the introduction of chip technologies By Ali R. Baghirzade
  20. Detecting coverage bias in user-generated content By Anna Kerkhof; Johannes Münster
  21. Trade sentiment and the stock market: new evidence based on big data textual analysis of Chinese media By Marlene Amstad; Leonardo Gambacorta; Chao He; Dora Xia
  22. A study on the effects of social media advertisement on consumer’s attitude and customer response By Hussain, Hadia; Murtaza, Murtaza; Ajmal, Areeb; Ahmed, Afreen; Khan, Muhammad Ovais Khalid
  23. Understanding impulse purchased in facebook commerce-does big five matter? By khan, ifrah; Fatima, Tahreem; khan, Azam; ali, Umaid
  24. Online Salience and Charitable Giving : Evidence from SMS Donations By Perroni, Carlo; Scharf, Kimberley; Talavera, Oleksandr; Vi, Linh
  25. Weekly dynamic conditional correlations among cryptocurrencies and traditional assets By Aslanidis, Nektarios; Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio; Savva, Christos S.
  26. Le Québec économique 9 - Chapitre 13 - Point de vue sur les défis fiscaux associés au commerce électronique By Luc Godbout; Michaël Robert-Angers
  27. TV superstars: how a new technology disrupted the entertainment industry By Felix Koenig
  28. Blockchain technology and crypto-assets market analysis: vulnerabilities and risk assessment By Jean-Guillaume Dumas; Sonia Jimenez-Garcès; Florentina Șoiman
  29. Alternative Methods for Studying Consumer Payment Choice By Oz Shy
  30. Using Payments Data to Nowcast Macroeconomic Variables During the Onset of COVID-19 By James Chapman; Ajit Desai

  1. By: Michael Peneder
    Abstract: From Aristotle to Ricardo and Menger, economists have emphasised the function of money as a medium of exchange together with the intrinsic qualities that increase its saleability and credibility as a most liquid store of value. But the social institution of money co-evolves with technology. It is significant that the advent of digital cryptocurrencies was initiated by computer scientists and has taken economists completely by surprise. As a consequence, it also forces our profession to rethink the basic phenomenology of money. In accordance with the views of Wieser and Schumpeter, digitization brings to the fore its immaterial function as a standard of value and social technology of account, which increasingly absorbs that of a medium of exchange. The potential impact on economic policy is huge. The variety of different crypto coins has proven the technical feasibility of competing private currencies as proposed by Hayek. In the long term, however, there is reason to doubt the persistence of intense competition. One must fear that major digital platforms will extend their current dominance in multisided virtual market places to include digital payments and money. Central banks are increasingly anxious to preserve public sovereignty over the common unit of account and consider issuing their own digital fiat money. After the current era of intense creative experimentation, the potentially new spontaneous order of private crypto-currencies is likely to be supplanted by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), the design of which will depend on deliberate public choices and policies.
    Keywords: Digitization, evolution of money, currency competition, general ledger, crypto coins, central bank digital currency (CBDC), Austrian economics
    Date: 2021–01–20
  2. By: Itai Agur; Anil Ari; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
    Abstract: We study the optimal design of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in an environment where agents sort into cash, CBDC and bank deposits according to their preferences over anonymity and security; and where network effects make the convenience of payment instruments dependent on the number of their users. CBDC can be designed with attributes similar to cash or deposits, and can be interest-bearing: a CBDC that closely competes with deposits depresses bank credit and output, while a cash-like CBDC may lead to the disappearance of cash. Then, the optimal CBDC design trades off bank intermediation against the social value of maintaining diverse payment instruments. When network effects matter, an interest-bearing CBDC alleviates the central bank's tradeoff.
    Keywords: Central Bank digital currencies;Currencies;Payment systems;Banking;Bank deposits;WP,central bank,interest rate,market power
    Date: 2019–11–18
  3. By: Marie-Hélène Felt; Fumiko Hayashi; Joanna Stavins; Angelika Welte
    Abstract: Using data from the United States and Canada, we quantify consumers’ net pecuniary cost of using cash, credit cards, and debit cards for purchases across income cohorts. The net cost includes fees paid to financial institutions, rewards received from credit or debit card issuers, and the higher retail prices passed on to consumers to cover merchants’ payment processing costs. Even though credit cards are more expensive for merchants to accept compared with other payment methods, merchants typically do not differentiate prices at checkout but instead pass through their costs to all consumers. As a result, credit card transactions are cross-subsidized by cheaper debit and cash payments. Card rewards and consumer fees paid to financial institutions are additional sources of cross-subsidies. We find that consumers in the lowest-income cohort pay the highest net pecuniary cost as a percentage of transaction value, while consumers in the highest-income cohort pay the lowest net cost. This result is robust under various scenarios and assumptions, suggesting payment card pricing and merchant cost pass-through have regressive distributional effects in the United States and Canada.
    Keywords: Regressive Effects; Credit Cards; Rewards; Interchage Fees; Pass-through
    JEL: D12 D31 G21 L81
    Date: 2020–12–18
  4. By: Khurram, Anoshay; Hashmi, Rabia; Khalid, Saaniya; Ali, Areesha; Khan, Muhammad Shams-UR-Rehman
    Abstract: This study aims to examine the factors that influence customers to switch mobile platforms in Karachi. For this purpose, the study uses Information System Success Model (ISSM) to find out individuals’ intention of using mobile platforms and to predict and explain their behavior towards mobile phone devices. Further, the study also intends to analyze the effects of System Quality, Information Quality, Service Quality, User Satisfaction, Perceived Switching Value and Switching Intentions. Using the Information System Success Model (ISSM), data has been collected from telecommunications customers in Karachi, using self-administered questionnaires. A total of 424 questionnaires are found usable. We use Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze the effects of System Quality, Information Quality, Service Quality, User Satisfaction, Perceived Switching Value on Switching Intentions. Using the Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM), this study finds that Information Quality (IQ) has negative and significant impact on Perceived Switching Value (PSV) whereas Service Quality (SE-Q) has significant and positive impact on Perceived Switching Value (PSV). While Information Quality (IQ), Service Quality (SE-Q) & System Quality (SY-Q) also have positive and significant impacts on User Satisfaction (US) whereas Perceived Switching Value (PSV) and User Satisfaction (US) have a significant impact on Switching Intentions (SI). Moreover, Perceived Switching Value (PSV) has positive impact on Switching Intention and System Quality has negative and insignificant impact on Perceived Switching Value. Four limitations are available for future studies. First, as our variables are limited so in future other variables could be included in this study. Second, our population was only Karachi’s telecommunication customer which influences the results of the study. Third, our sample size was 573 respondents which ultimately decrease the generalizability of the paper because of not having appropriate sample size. Fourth, respondent was not cooperative while filling up questionnaire which might negatively influence the results. These limitations, however, provide directions for further future research.
    Keywords: Switching Intention, User Satisfaction, Perceived Switching Value, System Quality, Information Quality, Service Quality, Information System Success Model.
    JEL: I0 I2 I29
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Martina Metzger; Jennifer Pédussel Wu
    Abstract: This paper examines the potential of digital financial services (Fintech) to increase the development impact of remittances. We discuss both household and macroeconomic perspectives of the nexus of digital financial services, remittances, and financial inclusion. Using our findings, we identify regulatory gaps in dealing with digital financial services to enhance the development impact of remittances. Political and social remittances, as well as collective remittances, and the role of diaspora networks are also considered. We then examine the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic before elucidating major research questions in the political economy of migrant transfers.
    Date: 2020–12
  6. By: Budzinski, Oliver; Gänßle, Sophia; Lindstädt-Dreusicke, Nadine
    Abstract: The paper analyses the economics behind algorithmic search and recommender services, based upon personalized user data. Such services play a paramount role for online services such as marketplaces (e.g. Amazon), audio streaming (e.g. Spotify), video streaming (e.g. Netflix, YouTube), app stores, social networks (e.g. Instagram, Tik Tok, Facebook, Twitter) and many more. We start with a systematic analysis of search and recommendation services as a commercial good, highlighting the changes to these services by the systematic use of algorithms. Then we discuss benefits and risk for welfare arising from the widespread employment of algorithmic search and recommendation systems. In doing so, we summarize the existing economics literature and go beyond its insights, including highlighting further research desires. Eventually, we derive regulatory and managerial implications drawing on the current state of academic knowledge.
    Keywords: algorithmic search and recommender services,data economics,media economics,internet economics,digital economy,cultural economics,competition,antitrust,industry regulation,digital business ecosystems
    JEL: L86 L40 K21 K23 K24 L13 L51 L82 M21 Z10
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Tanai Khiaonarong; Terry Goh
    Abstract: Financial technology (Fintech) has prompted authorities to consider their potential financial stability benefits, risks, and effective regulation. Recent developments suggest that regulatory approaches and their legal foundations need to augment entity-based regulation with increasing focus on activities and risks as market structure changes. This paper draws on recent international experiences in modernizing legal and regulatory frameworks for payment services. An analytical framework based on a four-step process is proposed—(i) identifying payment activities; (ii) licensing entities and designating systems; (iii) analyzing and managing risks, and (iv) promoting legal certainty. As payment activities evolve and potential systemic risks heighten, adherence to international standards and additional regulatory requirements should be warranted.
    Keywords: Payment systems;Digital currencies;Mobile banking;Legal support in revenue administration;Virtual currencies;WP,payment transaction,oversight framework,payment activity,payment infrastructure,payment scheme
    Date: 2020–05–29
  8. By: Munshi, M.Faris Uddin; Hussain, Hammad; Ahmed, Muneeb; Idress, Amir
    Abstract: The purpose of this research to analyze overall convenience for consumers through online shopping and their behavioral intention towards online customer satisfaction. This study helps people who purchases product and services online because its aim on main factors which create impact on consumers when they buy from web-stores. Moreover, it is also beneficial for the companies and individual who sell their product and services via online. We used Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with the sample size of 531. We have collected online survey questionnaire from respondent who are convenient to us from Karachi. The nature of the research is quantitative. The purpose of utilizing quantitative methodology that we are able to focus on variety of data to understand the behavior intention and customer satisfaction of those who engage in online shopping. The findings of this research shows that what factors managers should focus on to grow their online sales and improves the efficiency of their websites. Managers should be use it to develop strategies for effective and efficient business, enhance these variable in their online shopping process and make the experience convenient and safe for their customers. Five limitations are available for future studies. First, the data was only collected by 531 respondents. Second, data was collected by respondents living in Karachi, Pakistan. Third, data was collected by respondents that are convenient to us. Fourth, there was limited variable. Fifth, it only perform on SPSS and PLS, no other software used in this research for calculating result and we run only three test on PLS. These limitations, however, provide directions to the researcher.
    Keywords: Online shopping, Online customer satisfaction, Online transaction, Cash on delivery, Behavioral intention
    JEL: I20 I23
    Date: 2020–03–30
  9. By: Rishabh, Kumar (University of Basel); Schäublin, Jorma
    Abstract: Fintech payment companies acting as lenders possess a potential solution to weak debt enforcement. Their location in the payment chain yields them a senior position in the revenue stream of the borrowing merchant, as the payment company can deduct part of the merchant's sales it processes to amortize the loan. Our analysis of the transactions processed through a fintech company offering such sales-linked loans suggests that some borrowers discontinuously reduce sales processed through the company immediately after the loan disbursal to strategically default. We find that competition from other lenders and cash limits the effectiveness of this enforcement technology.
    Keywords: Fintech lending, limited enforcement, sales manipulation, regression discontinuity
    JEL: G20 G21 G23
    Date: 2021–01–19
  10. By: James, Liam
    Abstract: Marketing has become a big obstacle for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) around the world due to high prices. The conventional marketing communication mechanism, such as television, radio, etc., appears to have a high cost at which it does not even satisfy the intended customers and therefore does not produce the desired result. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of digital marketing on the growth of SMEs in South Asia. Several digital marketing channels, such as email marketing, social media, web advertising, etc., were used to achieve this, while the notion of growth was measured in terms of revenue and market share. Therefore, questionnaires were formulated and administered through an online platform and replied to 47 of the 50 respondents distributed by the questionnaire, providing a response rate of 93.00 percent. The population was composed of clients and employees of Faheem Hayder Dealzmag as well as employers.
    Keywords: SMES, South Asia, Digital marketing, Email Marketing, Social media
    JEL: M00
    Date: 2020–01–05
  11. By: Emre Alper; Michal Miktus
    Abstract: Digital connectivity, including through the modern cellular network technologies, is expected to play a key role for the Future of Work in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimate the cost of introducing a full-scale 4G network by 2025 in SSA and an operable 5G network by 2040. We adapt the costing model of Lombardo (2019) by accounting for the significant demographic transformation and rapid urbanization in SSA. We use the WorldPop and GADM databases and the UN’s medium-variant population projections to project the population densities at the highest level of administrative division for each SSA country in 2025 and 2040. For full 4G connectivity, the required capital and operational costs stands approximately at US$14 billion by 2025 and for 5G connectivity, costs amount to US$57 billion in 2040, conditional on having the 4G in place by 2025. These costs roughly translate to 8.4 percent of annual subscriber income, on a median basis, by 2025 for 4G and 4.9 percent of subscriber income by 2040 for 5G. Having the infrastructure in place is not sufficient to bridge the mobile Digital Divide. In addition, policies are needed to address affordability and knowledge gaps.
    Keywords: Population and demographics;Infrastructure;Capital spending;Technology;Public expenditure review;WP,internet access
    Date: 2019–11–15
  12. By: Kevin Foster; Claire Greene
    Abstract: In the United States, COVID-19 cases and currency in circulation both surged in March 2020. Did consumer choice play a role in the increase in currency in circulation? With fewer opportunities to shop and pay in person, why would consumers hold more cash? Data from the fall 2019 Survey and Diary of Consumer Payment Choice and interim rapid-response surveys in spring and late summer 2020 give some insights into consumer cash holdings and payments behavior.
    Keywords: COVID-19; cash; U.S. currency in circulation; consumer behavior
    JEL: D9 D14 E42
    Date: 2021–01–12
  13. By: Misha Perepelitsa; Ilya Timofeyev
    Abstract: We show that infinite divisibility of a trading commodity leads to a self-sustained price bubble when traders use adaptive investment strategies. The adaptive strategy can be viewed as a psychological response of a trader to the situation when the trader's estimation of future prices does not match the actual, realized price. We use a multi-agent model to illustrate the price bubble formation and to quantify its main statistical properties such as the return, the volatility, and the systematic risk of the price bubble to crash. We discuss the plausibility for bubbles to drive prices of digital currencies.
    Date: 2020–12
  14. By: Francisco-Javier Braña Pino (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)
    Abstract: Este trabajo trata de analizar cómo el proceso de innovación tecnológica conocido como digitalización afecta al modo de producción capitalista y sus relaciones de producción, en particular en España, así como de América Latina, respondiendo a cuatro preguntas. Se comienza estudiando la aparición gradual o despliegue, desde el último cuarto del siglo pasado, de un conjunto de tecnologías de la información y la comunicación, que permiten la hibridación entre el mundo físico y el mundo digital, borrando las fronteras entre ambos, que ha llevado a que se hable de la Industria 4.0, preguntando si estamos ante “la cuarta revolución industrial”. Tras esta supuesta revolución estaría una revolución digital. Y ello a pesar de que la industria no deja de perder peso en la economía, tanto en empleo como en la participación en el Valor Añadido Bruto. A continuación, se analiza cuál es el grado de digitalización alcanzado. En la tercera sección se revisan cuáles son los efectos de la digitalización y la automatización sobre las condiciones de trabajo y empleo, en particular la polarización, los cambios en las participaciones en el empleo entre ocupaciones y los trabajos que están en riesgo de perderse, con un cierto énfasis en España. En la última sección se intenta responder a la pregunta de si hay una política industrial posible para hacer frente a estos cambios.
    Abstract: The paper tries to analyse how the process of technological innovation known as digitization affects the capitalist production mode and its relations of production, particularly in Spain and Latin America, answering four questions. It begins by studying the gradual appearance or development, since the last quarter of the last century, of a set of information and communication technologies, which allow the hybridization between the physical and the digital world, erasing the borders between both worlds, which has led to talk of Industry 4.0 asking if we are facing “the fourth industrial revolution”. After this supposed revolution, there would be a digital revolution. Moreover, this despite the fact that manufacturing continues to lose weight in the economy as a whole, in employment and participation in Gross Value Added. The degree of digitization achieved is analysed below. The third section reviews the effects of digitalization and automation on employment and working conditions, in particular polarization, changes in employment shares across occupations, and jobs at risk, with some emphasis in the Spanish case. In the last section, the paper intends to answer the question whether there is a progressive industrial policy feasible to cope with these changes.
    Keywords: Digital revolution; Industrial revolution; Industry 4.0; Labour; Employment and Work organization; Industrial policy
    Date: 2020
  15. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Economics Information and Communication Technologies - ICT Policy and Strategies Infrastructure Economics and Finance - Infrastructure Economics Private Sector Development - Enterprise Development & Reform Private Sector Development - Private Sector Economics
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Teubner, Alexander; Stockhinger, Jan
    Abstract: IT/IS strategy is of central importance to practice and many well-developed lines of research have contributed to our understanding of IT/IS strategy. However, throughout the last decade, digitalization has fundamentally transformed the business world and put into question traditional strategy wisdom. As information technologies are the driver of this digital transformation, we can expect an even more fundamental change in IT/IS strategy thinking. To verify this expectation, we undertook an in-depth, extensive review of the academic literature on this topic. Our review, which is time-framed to the years 2008-2018, distils five different directions in the development of IT/IS strategy research. It also identifies a shift in how IT/IS strategy is defined and investigated over this period. Moreover, we present an emerging debate on how digitalization challenges traditional IT/IS strategy wisdom. As this debate is still in its infancy, we take it further by entering into the larger discussion on digitalization, including digital innovation, digital ecosystems, and digital transformation. Building on this, we derive at deeper insights on how IT/IS strategy could, should, or should better not be understood in the digital age.
    Keywords: IT/IS Strategy,IS Strategy,Digitalization,Digital Transformation,Digital Business Strategy,Digital Strategy
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Corinne Deléchat; Lama Kiyasseh; Margaux MacDonald; Rui Xu
    Abstract: This study analyzes the drivers of the use of formal vs. informal financial services in emerging and developing countries using the 2017 Global FINDEX data. In particular, we investigate whether individuals’ choice of financial services correlates with macro-financial and macro-structural policies and conditions, in addition to individual and country characteristics. We start our analysis on middle and low-income countries, and then zoom in on sub-Saharan Africa, currently the region that most relies on informal financial services, and which has the largest uptake of mobile banking. We find robust evidence of an association between macroprudential policies and individuals’ choice of financial access after controlling for personal and country-level characteristics. In particular, macroprudential policies aimed at controlling credit supply seem to be associated with greater resort to informal financial services compared with formal, bank-based access. This highlights the importance for central bankers and financial sector regulators to consider the potential spillovers of monetary policy and financial stability measures on financial inclusion.
    Keywords: Financial services;Financial inclusion;Mobile banking;Macroprudential policy;Macroprudential policy instruments;WP,informal financial service
    Date: 2020–05–29
  18. By: Joannes Mongardini; Aneta Radzikowski
    Abstract: Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.
    Keywords: Mobile internet;Service exports;Stocks;Financial services;Exports;WP,iPhone,Apple,iPhone sale,trade
    Date: 2020–05–29
  19. By: Ali R. Baghirzade
    Abstract: Hardly any other area of research has recently attracted as much attention as machine learning (ML) through the rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI). This publication provides a short introduction to practical concepts and methods of machine learning, problems and emerging research questions, as well as an overview of the participants, an overview of the application areas and the socio-economic framework conditions of the research. In expert circles, ML is used as a key technology for modern artificial intelligence techniques, which is why AI and ML are often used interchangeably, especially in an economic context. Machine learning and, in particular, deep learning (DL) opens up entirely new possibilities in automatic language processing, image analysis, medical diagnostics, process management and customer management. One of the important aspects in this article is chipization. Due to the rapid development of digitalization, the number of applications will continue to grow as digital technologies advance. In the future, machines will more and more provide results that are important for decision making. To this end, it is important to ensure the safety, reliability and sufficient traceability of automated decision-making processes from the technological side. At the same time, it is necessary to ensure that ML applications are compatible with legal issues such as responsibility and liability for algorithmic decisions, as well as technically feasible. Its formulation and regulatory implementation is an important and complex issue that requires an interdisciplinary approach. Last but not least, public acceptance is critical to the continued diffusion of machine learning processes in applications. This requires widespread public discussion and the involvement of various social groups.
    Date: 2020–12
  20. By: Anna Kerkhof (ifo Institute for Economic Research, LMU Munich, and CESifo); Johannes Münster (University of Cologne)
    Abstract: The importance of user-generated content is growing as media consumption is moving online; yet, investigations of media bias on user-generated content platforms are rare. We develop a novel procedure to detect coverage bias - i.e., bias in the amount of coverage certain topics or issues receive - on user-generated content platforms. We proceed in two steps. First, we focus on a sample of homogeneous observations and control for observable differences. Second, we compare the coverage of our observations between different language versions of the same platform in a difference-in-differences framework, which allows us to disentangle coverage bias from unobserved heterogeneity between observations. We apply our procedure to Wikipedia and examine whether it has a coverage bias in its biographies of German (and French) Members of Parliament (MPs). Our analysis reveals a small to medium size coverage bias against MPs from the center-left parties in Germany and in France. A plausible explanation are partisan contributions to the Wikipedia biographies, as we show by analyzing patterns of authorship and Wikipedia's talk pages for the German case. Practical implications of our results include raising users' awareness of coverage bias when searching for and processing information obtained on user-generated content platforms.
    Keywords: bias, media bias, media economics, social media, user-generated content
    JEL: L82 L86 P16
    Date: 2021–01
  21. By: Marlene Amstad; Leonardo Gambacorta; Chao He; Dora Xia
    Abstract: Trade tensions between China and US have played an important role in swinging global stock markets but effects are difficult to quantify. We develop a novel trade sentiment index (TSI) based on textual analysis and machine learning applied on a big data pool that assesses the positive or negative tone of the Chinese media coverage, and evaluates its capacity to explain the behaviour of 60 global equity markets. We find the TSI to contribute around 10% of model capacity to explain the stock price variability from January 2018 to June 2019 in countries that are more exposed to the China-US value chain. Most of the contribution is given by the tone extracted from social media (9%), while that obtained from traditional media explains only a modest part of stock price variability (1%). No equity market benefits from the China-US trade war, and Asian markets tend to be more negatively affected. In particular, we find that sectors most affected by tariffs such as information technology related ones are particularly sensitive to the tone in trade tension.
    Keywords: stock returns, trade, sentiment, big data, neural network, machine learning
    JEL: F13 F14 G15 D80 C45 C55
    Date: 2021–01
  22. By: Hussain, Hadia; Murtaza, Murtaza; Ajmal, Areeb; Ahmed, Afreen; Khan, Muhammad Ovais Khalid
    Abstract: Given that Social Media Advertising put significant impact on Consumer’s attitude and shapes Customer’s buying behavior, so the managers of manufacturing industries of Pakistan should use the social media platform for their marketing activities. Concisely, we’ve got validated that Social media is becoming highly significant also as convenient for the businesses and helping them in using it as a tool for marketing, external promotions, customer management, and as an inside channel for employee communications. The study was involved with survey and analysis was conducted based on a total of 500 responses whereas most of the respondents were students who had experience in business sector and linked industry. The analysis used structural equation modeling to test the research model and hypothesis. The findings imply that Social Media Advertisement had significant impact on Consumer Attitude and Customer Response in business success, so the managers of manufacturing/business industries of Pakistan should use the social media platform for their marketing activities. As far as delimitations are concerned, this research focused on Social Media Advertising effects on consumer’s attitude and shapes customer buying behavior irrespective of other marketing tools. However, the data was collected from limited number of respondents, the study may contain biasness/unfairness because the results are self-reported and respondents may have answered inaccurately which may make the results less convincing.
    Keywords: Social Media Advertising, Consumer Attitude, Customer buying behavior, marketing tools.
    JEL: A10 I2
    Date: 2020
  23. By: khan, ifrah; Fatima, Tahreem; khan, Azam; ali, Umaid
    Abstract: The purpose of this research is to examine the effect of Big Five Model (BFM), the urge to purchase (UP) and urgency (UR) on impulse purchase (IP) in Facebook commerce (F-commerce), with the F-commerce purchase as control variable. So, the research purpose is explanatory as there is an existing model. Probability sampling technique was used in our research and data collection was done through Questionnaires. The sample size was 500 university students of Karachi. So, questionnaires are filled by the students of the different Universities of Karachi. The determination of the study was to classify the relationship of an impulse purchase in Face book commerce and the big five personality traits. In this research we are using correlation research design. Exploration of data was done through PLS (SEM) by performing reliability test, factor analysis and regression analysis test. The study presented that BFM, UP, UR and F-commerce purchase are important predictors of the F-commerce IP. UP is subjective by BFM and UR. BFM has a significant positive relationship with UR. The study confirms that consumer’s personality has great impact towards online buying the really most important factor in order to grab the consumer’s positive attitude towards online buying. In future researchers we can add moderating variables like age, gender and income in the same framework.
    Keywords: Urgency, Big Five Model, Facebook commerce (F-commerce), Impulsive Urge to purshased
    JEL: I0 I2
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Perroni, Carlo (University of Warwick); Scharf, Kimberley (University of Birmingham and CEPR); Talavera, Oleksandr (University of Birmingham); Vi, Linh (University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: We explore the link between online attention and charitable donations. Using a unique dataset on phone text donations that includes detailed information on the timing of cash gifts to charities, we link donations to time variation online searches for words that appear in those charities’ mission statements. The results suggest that an increase in the online salience to donors of the activities pursued by different charities affects the number and volume of donations made to those charities and to charities that pursue different goals. We uncover evidence of positive own salience effects and negative cross salience effects on donations.
    Keywords: Charitable Donations ; Online Search ; News Shocks JEL Classification: H41 ; D12 ; D64
    Date: 2021
  25. By: Aslanidis, Nektarios; Fernández Bariviera, Aurelio; Savva, Christos S.
    Abstract: This paper adopts a versatile multivariate conditional correlation model to estimate daily seasonality in the returns, the volatility, and the correlations between stocks, bonds, gold and Bitcoin. Besides the well known seasonality in stocks and bonds, the day-of-the-week effect is also present in Bitcoin. Mondays are associated with higher Bitcoin returns, while Wednesdays with higher Bitcoin volatility. As opposed to previous literature, our results indicate strong evidence of Bitcoin’s leverage effect. Moreover, we show that daily correlations between Bitcoin and traditional assets are higher at the beginning of the week, while the volatility of these correlations decreases over the week. Our results offer interesting insights in terms of investment and portfolio diversification, that can be applied to the analysis of systematic risk asset allocation and hedging. Keywords: Day-of-the-week effect; dynamic conditional correlation; Bitcoin; volatility seasonality. JEL codes: G01; G10; G12; G22
    Keywords: Bitcoin, Mercats financers, 336 - Finances. Banca. Moneda. Borsa,
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Luc Godbout; Michaël Robert-Angers
    Abstract: Au Québec, comme ailleurs, les consommateurs effectuent de plus en plus d’achats en ligne. Ici, le commerce électronique est dominé par quelques géants américains, Amazon en tête. Ceux-ci détiennent d’importantes parts de marché. Le secteur du commerce de détail traditionnel se trouve par conséquent devant une concurrence étrangère de plus en plus importante. La consommation en ligne récupérée par les détaillants web locaux étant relativement faible, on observe le remplacement de ventes locales par des importations. Si l’achat en ligne à l’extérieur du Québec constitue une tendance lourde, il est néanmoins possible d’en atténuer l’impact sur les finances publiques. En complément aux mesures prises par le Québec dans le cadre du budget 2018-2019, une piste à considérer est l’application uniforme des taxes de vente sur les importations de biens tangibles. À l’aide des données statistiques disponibles, ce point de vue présentera un portrait du commerce en ligne au Québec, de son impact économique attendu et de son effet sur les finances publiques.
    Keywords: , Fiscalité,Commerce électronique,Importations,Plateformes numériques
    Date: 2021–01–07
  27. By: Felix Koenig
    Abstract: The rollout of television to virtually every household in the United States in the mid-twentieth century created a potentially huge audience for people working in the entertainment industry. As Felix Koenig explains, this experience illustrates how new technologies can have a disruptive impact on labour markets: a handful of superstars were richly rewarded, but the majority of entertainers ended up worse off.
    Keywords: Superstar Effect, inequality, top incomes, technical change
    JEL: J31 J23 O33 D31
    Date: 2020–03
  28. By: Jean-Guillaume Dumas (CASC - Calcul Algébrique et Symbolique, Sécurité, Systèmes Complexes, Codes et Cryptologie - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Sonia Jimenez-Garcès (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Florentina Șoiman (CASC - Calcul Algébrique et Symbolique, Sécurité, Systèmes Complexes, Codes et Cryptologie - LJK - Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: After ten years of continuous development and innovation, the cryptomarket and the Blockchain technology are still very much challenged and far from the mainstream adoption. We thus propose a risk assessment, as well as a market analysis of the Blockchain technology and the cryptomarket. This study is conceived as a two-level analysis. We first start with the micro-level analysis by performing a detailed risk assessment. Here, we take into consideration technological issues, such as such as consensus, network, cryptographic primitives, quantum and smart contract attacks, together with financial concerns such as market, information, liquidity, supply, reputation and environmental risks. Moreover, we propose ways to determine the probability that technological vulnerabilities can trigger financial risk. Here, we tackle concepts such as financial behavior, responsible investment and Blockchain literacy, as possible tools for assessing risk. Then, we complete this study with a macro-level analysis, which consists of the crypto-market appraisal performed with the Porter's five forces model. This market analysis is performed with respect to its stakeholders, such as the business process managers, investors, regulators, firms, developers, miners, hackers, exchange and trading platforms, etc. The results are relative to: 1. an identified continuity between the technological risks and financial ones; 2. a way to determine the likelihood of triggering financial risks through technical vulnerabilities; 3. a long-term profitability of the stakeholders' strategy / position within the market.
    Keywords: Blockchain,Risk assessment,Financial risks,Technological characteristics,Stakeholders,Financial behavior,Blockchain literacy,Socially responsible investment
    Date: 2021–03–09
  29. By: Oz Shy
    Abstract: Using machine learning techniques applied to consumer diary survey data, the author of this working paper examines methods for studying consumer payment choice. These techniques, especially when paired with regression analyses, provide useful information for understanding and predicting the payment choices consumers make.
    Keywords: studying consumer payment choice; point of sale; statistical learning; machine learning
    JEL: C19 E42
    Date: 2020–06–23
  30. By: James Chapman; Ajit Desai
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting public health mitigation have caused large-scale economic disruptions globally. During this time, there is an increased need to predict the macroeconomy’s short-term dynamics to ensure the effective implementation of fiscal and monetary policy. However, economic prediction during a crisis is challenging because of the unprecedented economic impact, which increases the unreliability of traditionally used linear models that use lagged data. We help address these challenges by using timely retail payments system data in linear and nonlinear machine learning models. We find that compared to a benchmark, our model has a roughly 15 to 45% reduction in Root Mean Square Error when used for macroeconomic nowcasting during the global financial crisis. For nowcasting during the COVID-19 shock, our model predictions are much closer to the official estimates.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Payment clearing and settlement systems
    JEL: C55 E52
    Date: 2021–01

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.