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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
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Issue of 2019‒12‒23
33 papers chosen by |
| By: | Kim Huynh; Gradon Nicholls; Mitchell Nicholson |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the Bank of Canada surveyed merchants and found that cash was nearly universally accepted (Fung, Huynh and Kosse 2017). Since 2015, retail payments in Canada have become increasingly digitalized, as many Canadians have adopted digital payment innovations like contactless cards and Interac e-Transfer. This trend prompted us to ask the question: what share of Canadian merchants still accept cash? The Bank of Canada’s 2018 Merchant Acceptance Survey (MAS) was designed to study the acceptance of payment methods by small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in Canada. In this paper, we discuss the survey’s design, methodology and findings, and compare our results with the findings from 2015. Our results show that cash remains accepted by 96 percent of SMBs in Canada and that only 8 percent of SMBs report plans to stop accepting cash within the next five years. |
| Keywords: | Bank notes; Digital Currencies and Fintech; Econometric and statistical methods |
| JEL: | C8 D22 E4 L2 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:19-31&r=all |
| By: | A.T.M. Hasibul, Islam; Syed Abul, Basher; A.K. Enamul, Haque |
| Abstract: | Mobile money has become a lifeline for millions of poor people who have limited access to a formal banking system. It encompasses a wide range of benefits such as women’s empowerment, risk sharing, improved labor market outcomes and reductions in poverty. In this paper, we ask whether mobile money can help lift people out of poverty. Previous studies have addressed this question by using microanalyses of field experiments or longitudinal data on rural households, whereas we use district-level data to reevaluate the mobile money–poverty nexus. In particular, we study the impact of mobile money on district-level poverty in Bangladesh over the period 2010–2016. Our study finds that every 1 billion Taka (approximately US$ 11.76 million) increase in mobile money transactions via the bKash system leads to a 0.48% reduction in the poverty rate in Bangladesh. The marginal impact ranges from 0.27 to 0.48 percentage points across five poverty quintiles, implying a reduction of poverty rates between 0.9 and 1.5 percentage points compared with the base poverty rate of 31.5% in 2010. The findings suggest that mobile money has been successful in fostering various poverty reduction initiatives and that targeted policy prescriptions can be devised to lift up poorer societies that are still outside the purview of mobile financial services. To further increase mobile money use, the government could use its own infrastructure to enhance mobile agent density in the poorest sectors of society. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money, poverty, bKash. |
| JEL: | G20 I32 L96 O16 |
| Date: | 2019–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97466&r=all |
| By: | Itai Agur; Anil Ari; Giovanni Dell'Ariccia |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal design of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in an environment where agents sort into cash, CBDC and bank deposits according to their preferences over anonymity and security; and where network effects make the convenience of payment instruments dependent on the number of their users. CBDC can be designed with attributes similar to cash or deposits, and can be interest-bearing: a CBDC that closely competes with deposits depresses bank credit and output, while a cash-like CBDC may lead to the disappearance of cash. Then, the optimal CBDC design trades off bank intermediation against the social value of maintaining diverse payment instruments. When network effects matter, an interest-bearing CBDC alleviates the central bank's tradeoff. |
| Date: | 2019–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/252&r=all |
| By: | Grodecka-Messi, Anna (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a unique event is studied: the opening of Bank of Canada in 1935, the central bank note issuance monopoly and its impact on the note issuing chartered banks. Between 1935-1950, Canadian chartered banks had to gradually withdraw their notes from circulation. In a difference-in-differences analysis, I show that chartered banks constrained by new issuance limits experienced higher volatility of return-on-equity in the short run and lower Z-scores and return-on-assets in the longer horizon, suggesting that note issuance was an important source of revenue for private banks and allowed them to smooth the profits. The effect on lending is either non-significant or ambiguous. This study of central bank cash implementation can offer lessons for the current debates on a new form of central bank money - central bank digital currencies - and their potential impacts on commercial banks. |
| Keywords: | Banknote Monopoly; Banknote Issuance; Cash; Central Bank Digital Currencies; Double Liability; Canadian banks; Financial Stability; Bank of Canada |
| JEL: | E42 E50 G21 G28 N22 |
| Date: | 2019–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2019_021&r=all |
| By: | John Lorinc (Spacing magazine) |
| Abstract: | In the past few years, a growing numbers of urbanists, planners, technology companies, and governance experts have started to use the term “smart city.†Some define smart cities in terms of using emerging and established technologies to improve the performance of municipal systems. Others take a more expansive view that embeds these new systems in a broader vision of urban regions characterized by innovation-based economic activity, a highly educated labour force, and policy-making that leverages these new technologies to confront stubborn urban problems. The market for smart-city technologies – such as cutting edge networked sensors, big-data repositories, powerful analytics software, and smart grids – has gathered momentum, as leading technology suppliers develop products and services geared to this domain. Entire new communities are being developed using smart-city systems, in some cases as proof-of-concept living labs. Yet the rapid adoption of consumer and security technologies that do not fall under the conventional “smart city†definition also have far-reaching impacts on municipal systems (such as housing, transportation, and policing), including those that have benefited from new smart-city systems. These include ride- and apartment-sharing apps, autonomous vehicles, and data-driven law enforcement or predictive policing applications. In other words, the emerging challenge facing municipal policymakers is to determine the degree of investment or procurement in purpose-built smart-city technologies while adapting regulatory and governance systems to respond to changes arising from the adoption of services such as Airbnb and Uber. At the same time, policymakers must consider some unfamiliar issues in responding to smart-city developments, including equity, privacy, algorithmic bias, and data governance. This Forum paper draws on the insights and professional experiences of four individuals with informed perspectives on these questions: Tracey Cook, Executive Director, Municipal Licensing and Standards, City of Toronto; Pamela Robinson, Associate Professor, School of Urban and Regional Planning, Ryerson University; Peter Sloly, Partner and National Security and Justice Lead, Deloitte Canada; and Zachary Spicer, Visiting Researcher, Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance. The report concludes by observing that policymakers must be smart when thinking about the smart city trend and ensure that technologies are not adopted for their promised efficiencies only. |
| Keywords: | smart city, municipal policy, local governance, digital urbanism |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:iforum:08&r=all |
| By: | Erkko Autio (Imperial College London Business School); Laszlo Szerb (University of Pécs); Eva Komlosi (University of Pécs); Monika Tiszberger (University of Pécs) |
| Abstract: | Digitalisation is shaping and even transforming both the location and nature of entrepreneurial opportunities in the economy and the practices to pursue them. In order to help maximise the productivity potential of the digitally enhanced entrepreneurial dynamic in countries, policymakers need to understand the state of their countries' digital framework conditions for entrepreneurship. The European Index of Digital Entrepreneurship Systems (EIDES) addresses this gap by monitoring digital framework and systemic conditions for entrepreneurial stand-up, start-up, and scale-up in the EU28 countries. |
| Keywords: | Digital Economy, Entrepreneurship, Start-up. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc117495&r=all |
| By: | Schneider, Nathan (University of Colorado Boulder) |
| Abstract: | Decentralization is a term widely used in a variety of contexts, particularly in political science and discourses surrounding the Internet. It is popular today among advocates of blockchain technology. While frequently employed as if it were a technical term, decentralization more reliably appears to operate as a rhetorical strategy that directs attention toward some aspects of a proposed social order and away from others. It is called for far more than it is theorized or consistently defined. This non-specificity has served to draw diverse participants into common political and technological projects. Yet even the most apparently decentralized systems have shown the capacity to produce economically and structurally centralized outcomes. The rhetoric of decentralization thus obscures other aspects of the re-ordering it claims to describe. It steers attention from where concentrations of power are operating, deferring worthwhile debate about how such power should operate. For decentralization to be a reliable concept in formulating future social arrangements and related technologies, it should come with high standards of specificity. It also cannot substitute for anticipating centralization with appropriate mechanisms of accountability. |
| Date: | 2019–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:m7wyj&r=all |
| By: | Ljunge, Martin (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Individuals with ancestry from countries with advanced information technology in 1500 AD, such as movable type and paper, adopt the internet faster than those with less advanced ancestry. The analysis illustrates persistence over five centuries in information technology adoption in European and U.S. populations. The results hold when excluding the most and least advanced ancestries, and when accounting for additional deep roots of development. Historical information technology is a better predictor of internet adoption than current development. A machine learning procedure supports the findings. Human capital is a plausible channel as 1500 AD information technology predicts early 20th century school enrollment, which predicts 21st century internet adoption. A three-stage model including human capital around 1990, yields similar results. |
| Keywords: | Internet; Technology diffusion; Information technology; Intergenerational transmission; Printing press |
| JEL: | D13 D83 J24 N70 O33 Z13 |
| Date: | 2019–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1312&r=all |
| By: | Cahyono, Dwi; Lestari, Veronika Nugraheni Sri |
| Abstract: | Android- based C2C portal uses Web Service and is developed to help and bridge between seller and buyer in transaction of sale with responsive digital media tools known as consumer to consumer (C2C). In buying and selling process digital media is highly important as the main media in selling and buying products that are fast and secure. C2C portal using android application is created in this research as a media of buying and selling with additional digital map media that the application can recommend the nearest seller from buyer and can give route from buyer to seller. The android app is created based on Google map used to display sellers in the form of icons. Android technology used is Javascript programming language and Apache Cordova as the library and use web service and mysql as data management. This application is able to help sellers and buyers as a medium of digital aids in making sale and purchase transactions and facilitate buyer in knowing the location of seller. Thus, feature designed in this apps can increase the confidence of the prospective buyer against seller. Keywords: portal, c2c, android application, digital maps, web services, mysql, javascript, buying and selling |
| Date: | 2017–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:inarxi:8uh6m&r=all |
| By: | Jacob Leshno (University of Chicago Booth School of Business); Philipp Strack (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin's main innovation lies in allowing a decentralized system that relies on anonymous, profit driven miners who can freely join the system. We formalize these properties in three axioms: anonymity of miners, no incentives for miners to consolidate, and no incentive to assuming multiple fake identities. This novel axiomatic formalization allows us to characterize which other protocols are feasible: Every protocol with these properties must have the same reward scheme as Bitcoin. This implies an impossibility result for risk-averse miners: no protocol satisfies the aforementioned constraints simultaneously without giving miners a strict incentive to merge. Furthermore, any protocol either gives up on some degree of decentralization or its reward scheme is equivalent to Bitcoin's. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, Random Selection, Proportional Selection Rule, Impossibility Theorem |
| JEL: | C72 D02 D47 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2204r&r=all |
| By: | Emre Alper; Michal Miktus |
| Abstract: | Digital connectivity, including through the modern cellular network technologies, is expected to play a key role for the Future of Work in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We estimate the cost of introducing a full-scale 4G network by 2025 in SSA and an operable 5G network by 2040. We adapt the costing model of Lombardo (2019) by accounting for the significant demographic transformation and rapid urbanization in SSA. We use the WorldPop and GADM databases and the UN’s medium-variant population projections to project the population densities at the highest level of administrative division for each SSA country in 2025 and 2040. For full 4G connectivity, the required capital and operational costs stands approximately at US$14 billion by 2025 and for 5G connectivity, costs amount to US$57 billion in 2040, conditional on having the 4G in place by 2025. These costs roughly translate to 8.4 percent of annual subscriber income, on a median basis, by 2025 for 4G and 4.9 percent of subscriber income by 2040 for 5G. Having the infrastructure in place is not sufficient to bridge the mobile Digital Divide. In addition, policies are needed to address affordability and knowledge gaps. |
| Date: | 2019–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/249&r=all |
| By: | Andreas Hanl (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Nach dem Versuch unzaehliger Kryptowaehrungen das Finanzwesen zu revolutionieren und den ersten Schritten nationaler Notenbanken in Richtung einer Digitalisierung des Geldwesens, folgen nun privatwirtschaftliche Grossprojekte. Das massgeblich von Facebook vorangetriebene Libra will den Zugang zu Finanzdienstleistungen vereinfachen. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die waehrungspolitische Dimension des Corporate Cryptocurrency Projekts. Mit den klassischen Kryptowaehrungen hat Libra nur die kryptographische Grundlage gemein. Durch vollstaendige Besicherung der Libra-Tokens durch eine Reserve aus niedrig-volatilen Wertpapieren soll ein "Stable Coin" entstehen, dessen Wechselkursvolatilitaet deutlich unter dem typischer Kryptowaehrungen liegen duerfte. Obwohl Libra keine eigene Geldpolitik verfolgt, wird es mit den bestehenden Zentralbanken interagieren, indem es einen von diesen nicht kontrollierten Transmissionskanal schafft. Damit erodiert der Wirkungskreis klassischer Geldpolitik, was letztlich in Versuchen muenden wird, den neuen Marktakteur zu regulieren. |
| Keywords: | Cryptocurrency, Facebook, Libra, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E40 E42 E44 E50 E52 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201930&r=all |
| By: | Hermawan, Bambang; Basalamah, Salim; Djamereng, Asdar; Plyriadi, Annas; Jamali, Hisnol |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to analyze the effect of service quality and price to corporate, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty of mobile telecommunications services in the city of Makassar. Research conducted on customers of mobile telecommunications services by setting a sample of 225 respondents. Data were analyzed using Structural Equation Model (SEM) through Analysis of Moment Structures (AMOS) Ver. 21. The results showed that the quality of the service directly positive and significant effect on corporate image and customer satisfaction. Service quality has a positive and insignificant effect on customer loyalty. Price perception has a positive and significant effect on corporate image, customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. Corporate image has a positive and significant effect on customer satisfaction. Corporate image has a positive and insignificant effect on customer loyalty. |
| Date: | 2017–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:inarxi:nbymc&r=all |
| By: | Christine Balagué (MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School); El Mehdi Rochd (MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School) |
| Abstract: | Most of product recommender systems in marketing are based on artificial intelligence algorithms using machine learning or deep learning techniques. One of the current challenges for companies is to avoid negative effects of these product recommender systems on customers (or prospects), such as unfairness, biais, discrimination, opacity, encapsulated opinion in the implemented recommender systems algorithms. This research focuses on the fairness challenge. We first make a literature review on the importance and challenges of using ethical algorithms. Second, we define the fairness concept and present the reasons why it is important for companies to address this issue in marketing. Third, we present the different methodologies used in recommender systems algorithms. Using a dataset in the entertainment industry, we measure the algorithm fairness for each methology and compare the results. Finally, we improve the existing methods by proposing a new product recommender system aiming at increasing fairness versus previous methods, without compromising the recommendation systems performance. |
| Keywords: | Recommender systems,Ethics,Algorithms,Fairness |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02332033&r=all |
| By: | Fabien Rogeon (CE.RE.GE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - ULR - Université de La Rochelle); Aurélia Michaud-Trévinal (CE.RE.GE - CEntre de REcherche en GEstion - IAE Poitiers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - Université de Poitiers - ULR - Université de La Rochelle); Isabelle Collin-Lachaud (MERCUR - SKEMA Business school) |
| Abstract: | Digitalization seems to be a "mantra" that retailers must follow. This positive outlook is not questioned by practitioners and academics. Building on a literature review on digitalization and local food, we reveal how this retailing trend can be source of paradoxes for consumers, and how these paradoxes are accentuated for local food shopping. Besides, as local foods are the subject of a muddled set of meanings for consumers, we contribute to the literature by providing a light of the concept of "local". |
| Abstract: | La digitalisation du commerce de détail semble constituer une stratégie « idéale » à suivre pour tous les détaillants. Cette vision positive n'est que très peu interrogée tant par les praticiens que les chercheurs. A la lumière d'une revue de littérature sur la digitalisation et les produits alimentaires locaux, nous étudions comment cette mutation peut être source de paradoxes pour les consommateurs, et comment ces paradoxes sont renforcés dans le contexte du magasinage de produits alimentaires locaux. Ces derniers font d'ailleurs l'objet d'un ensemble confus de significations pour les consommateurs. Nous contribuons à la littérature en y apportant un éclairage |
| Keywords: | customer journey,value,Local food,digitalization,shopping,Produit alimentaire local,digitalisation,magasinage,parcours client,valeur |
| Date: | 2019–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02336546&r=all |
| By: | Pajović, Ivan; Petrović, Dragan; Bukvić, Rajko |
| Abstract: | The fourth technological (industrial) revolution is based primarily on digital technologies, but also on their synthesis with other technologies, both traditional and conventional, as well as advanced, such as nanotechnologies and biotechnologies. The emergence of disruptive technologies causes changes in markets, which can sometimes be revolutionary. Economic as well as other sciences have not yet given the ultimate judgment - will the Fourth Technological Revolution and disruptive technologies contribute to the creation of a welfare society, reduce poverty and facilitate work, or increase material inequality, make distribution of goods more unfair and cause mass unemployment. |
| Keywords: | modern technologies, disruptive innovations, biotechnology, nanotechnology, market, (in)equality, poverty, welfare |
| JEL: | L60 N70 O14 O25 O30 O33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97489&r=all |
| By: | Michele Pezzoni; Reinhilde Veugelers; Fabiana Visentin |
| Abstract: | Despite the high interest of scholars in identifying successful inventions, little attention has been devoted to investigate how (fast) the novel ideas embodied in original inventions are re-used in follow-on inventions. We overcome this limitation by empirically mapping and characterizing the trajectory of novel technologies’ re-use in follow-on inventions. Specifically, we consider the factors affecting the time needed for a novel technology to be legitimated as well as to reach its full technological impact. We analyze how these diffusion dynamics are affected by the antecedent characteristics of the novel technology. We characterize novel technologies as those that make new combinations with existing technological components and trace these new combinations in follow-on inventions. We find that novel technologies combining for the first time technological components which are similar and which are familiar to the inventors’ community require a short time to be legitimated but show a low technological impact. In contrast, combining for the first time technological components with a science-based nature generates technologies with a long legitimation time but also high technological impact. |
| Keywords: | technological novelty, diffusion, combinatorial components, patent data |
| Date: | 2019–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:634946&r=all |
| By: | Lars Hornuf; Theresa Kück; Armin Schwienbacher |
| Abstract: | We study the extent of fraud in initial coin offerings (ICOs), and whether information disclosure prior to the issuance predicts fraud. We document different types of fraud, and that fraudulent ICOs are on average much larger than the sample average. Issuers that disclose their code on GitHub are more likely to be targeted by phishing and hacker activities, which suggests that there are risks related to disclosing the code. Generally, we find it extremely difficult to predict fraud with the information available at the time of issuance. This calls for the need to install a third-party that certifies the quality of the issuers, such as specialized platforms, or the engagement of institutional investors and venture capital funds that can perform a due diligence and thus verify the quality of the project. |
| Keywords: | initial coin offering, fraud, crypto-currencies, crowdsales |
| JEL: | G18 G38 M13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7962&r=all |
| By: | Salvador Bertomeu |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the quantitative impact of the growing role of non-traditional financial actors, in particular institutional investors, in the financing structure and consumer pricing of regulated private utilities. The focus is on the water sector in England and Wales, where the effect of the firms’ corporate financing strategies on key outcome variables may have been underestimated. The analysis is based on a staggered difference-in-differences estimation of the impacts of the evolution of the ownership of the assets, namely an increased participation of institutional investors, on leveraging and water pricing decisions. It shows a statistically significant positive impact on leverage levels and average consumer prices. |
| Keywords: | regulation; corporate finance; water and sewerage; public utilities |
| JEL: | C23 C51 G32 G38 L50 L51 L95 L97 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/297676&r=all |
| By: | Santoso, Adhi Setyo |
| Abstract: | The growth of multi-sided platform (MSP) firms, especially those with high Internet utilization such as Uber, Tokopedia, Go-Jek as well as other sharing economy firms, started to catch the attention of strategic management scholars. Since multi-sided platforms have more than one distinct user side with various role in the business ecosystem, the strategic alliances between the MSP and its platform members may play a significant role in increasing the user base as well as the value of the platform itself. However, there are still few researches that discuss the strategic alliances within the MSP. For this reason, this conceptual article aims at mapping the strategic alliances literature relevant to the MSP context through in-depth literature review. Two case analyses from high growth MSP firms in Indonesia are presented to explain this phenomenon. |
| Date: | 2018–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:inarxi:eyskp&r=all |
| By: | Yulianti, Luli; Sjahruddin, Herman; Tahir, Bungatang |
| Abstract: | Implementasi Customer Relationship Management (CRM) Terhadap Kepuasan dan Loyalitas Pelanggan Pengguna Smartphone Android Merek Samsung |
| Date: | 2017–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:inarxi:dvb48&r=all |
| By: | Mohamed CHIKHI; Claude DIEBOLT; Tapas MISHRA |
| Abstract: | Despite an inherent share of unpredictability, asset prices such as in stock and Bitcoin markets are naturally driven by significant magnitudes of memory; depending on the strength of path dependence, prices in such markets can be (at least partially) predicted. Being able to predict asset prices is always a boon for investors, more so, if the forecasts are largely unconditional and can only be explained by the series’ own historical trajectories. Although memory dynamics have been exploited in forecasting stock prices, Bitcoin market pose additional challenge, because the lack of proper financial theoretic model limits the development of adequate theory-driven empirical construct. In this paper, we propose a class of autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) model with asymmetric exponential generalized autoregressive score (AEGAS) errors to accommodate a complex interplay of ‘memory’ to drive predictive performance (an out-of-sample forecasting). Our conditional variance includes leverage effects, jumps and fat tail-skewness distribution, each of which affects magnitude of memory both the stock and Bitcoin price system would possess enabling us to build a true forecast function. We estimate several models using the Skewed Student-t maximum likelihood and find that the informational shocks in asset prices, in general, have permanent effects on returns. The ARFIMA-AEGAS is appropriate for capturing volatility clustering for both negative (long Value-at-Risk) and positive returns (short Value-at-Risk). We show that this model has better predictive performance over competing models for both long and/or some short time horizons. The predictions from this model beats comfortably the random walk model. Accordingly, we find that the weak efficiency assumption of financial markets stands violated for all price returns studied over longer time horizon. |
| Keywords: | Asset price; Forecasting; Memory; ARFIMA-AEGAS; Leverage effects and jumps; Market Efficiency. |
| JEL: | C14 C58 C22 G17 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2019-43&r=all |
| By: | Carpentieri, Loredana; Micossi, Stefano; Parascandolo, Paola |
| Abstract: | Is the corporate income tax (CIT) still an efficient system for taxing companies today? The CIT was introduced when economies were characterised primarily by tangible assets and goods and by limited international trade. Globalisation, digitalisation and the increasing weight of immaterial goods in company transactions and balance sheets have rendered that system outdated. These radical changes call for equally radical reflections on how to reform the CIT, bearing in mind the need for a corporate tax system that is fit for both the digital and the traditional economy, in developing and developed countries alike. Rather than offering a complete solution, this paper discusses various approaches that could contribute to a solution. First, we suggest that the CIT base should always be strictly aligned with the accounting profit and loss account, eschewing special adjustments for tax purposes. Second, a more radical possibility would be to abandon altogether the reference to corporate income and tax companies instead on cash flow, based on destination. And, third, the possibility could also be explored to tax companies with reference to ‘presumptive’ indicators of activity, rather than on the basis of public accounts. Presumptive indicators are already used in federal systems to allocate corporate income among decentralised jurisdictions. These propositions would not be viable without international agreement, at least at the level of the European Union. Such an agreement may prove difficult given the conflicts of interest between EU member states and between them and the United States. |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:25090&r=all |
| By: | Tucker, Jennifer |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao19:296848&r=all |
| By: | Yoon J. Jo; Misaki Matsumura; David E. Weinstein |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of e-commerce on pricing behavior and welfare. Using Japanese data, we find that the entry of e-commerce firms significantly raised the rate of intercity price convergence for goods sold intensively online, but not for other goods. E-commerce also lowered relative inflation rates for goods sold intensively online. We overcome data challenges using long data series and historical catalog sales as an instrument for e-commerce sales intensity. We estimate that reductions in price dispersion raised welfare by 0.3 percent. E-commerce also lowered variety-adjusted prices on average by 0.9 percent, and more in cities with highly educated populations. |
| JEL: | F14 L86 R32 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26506&r=all |
| By: | Fachmi, Muhammad (Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Amkop Makassar); Setiawan, Ikrar Putra; Hidayat, Andi (Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Ekonomi Amkop (STIE AMKOP) Makassar) |
| Abstract: | Purpose of a study, to analyze the effect of trust, promotion, and e-service quality on consumer purchasing decisions in online stores. Respondents in this study were users of online shops in Makassar City with a total sample of 100 people. Sampling was done randomly for college students who had shopped at Tokopedia, Bukalapak, and Shopee. To test the hypothesis, the researcher using Multiple Regression Analysis with a software SPSS 22.0. The findings of this study are that trust, promotion, and e-service quality have a positive and significant effect on purchasing decisions at online shops. That is, the higher the trust, the better promotions carried out, and good e-service quality, consumers will decide to shop using online shops at Tokopedia, Bukalapak, and Shopee. |
| Date: | 2019–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:egysw&r=all |
| By: | Solan, Brendan |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao19:296849&r=all |
| By: | Anek Belbase; Alice Zulkarnain |
| Abstract: | Throughout history, a familiar story has played out in societies undergoing rapid technological change. On one side, doomsday predictors have warned that laborsaving machines will make jobs obsolete and fuel social unrest. On the other side, utopians have preached a machine-powered era of abundance and leisure. Both sides have always thought that “this time is different” and that the world would never be the same. In a sense, both sides have been right (though not to the extremes predicted). Technological innovation has made workers more productive overall but has also displaced workers and periodically fed social unrest. Importantly, each wave of innovation and adoption has changed the nature of work and the relative value of workers’ skills in unique ways. Like prior generations trying to prepare for an uncertain future, current workers and policymakers are wondering how the rise of computers and robots – which can seemingly beat humans at any task from detecting tumors to driving – will change the nature of work. The stakes are particularly high for older workers, who increasingly need to work until their late 60s to afford to retire. This brief is the first of a three-part series investigating the impact of the current wave of automation on the job prospects of older workers. To place this automation wave in context, this brief reviews the literature on the effect of laborsaving technology over the past two centuries. The discussion proceeds as follows. The first section explains how technology expands the economic pie. The second section describes how machines change the level and type of labor that is in demand. The third section focuses on the painful transitions that some workers have faced because of machines, and the fourth section compares the changes taking place today to past waves to assess whether this time is, in fact, different. The final section concludes that changes today, while qualitatively different from the past, are comparable in scope. It seems reasonable to expect that – at least for a few more decades – machines will continue to make some skills more valuable than others without making human skills obsolete. |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:issbrf:ib2019-12&r=all |
| By: | Sai Srikar Nimmagadda; Pawan Sasanka Ammanamanchi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between Inverse Perpetual Swap contracts, a Bitcoin derivative akin to futures and the margin funding interest rates levied on BitMEX. This paper proves the Heteroskedastic nature of funding rates and goes onto establish a causal relationship between the funding rates and the Bitcoin inverse Perpetual swap contracts based on Granger causality. The paper further dwells into developing a predictive model for funding rates using best-fitted GARCH models. Implications of the results are presented, and funding rates as a predictive tool for gauging the market trend is discussed. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1912.03270&r=all |
| By: | Steven F. Lehrer; Tian Xie; Tao Zeng |
| Abstract: | Social media data presents challenges for forecasters since one must convert text into data and deal with issues related to these measures being collected at different frequencies and volumes than traditional financial data. In this paper, we use a deep learning algorithm to measure sentiment within Twitter messages on an hourly basis and introduce a new method to undertake MIDAS that allows for a weaker discounting of historical data that is well-suited for this new data source. To evaluate the performance of approach relative to alternative MIDAS strategies, we conduct an out of sample forecasting exercise for the consumer confidence index with both traditional econometric strategies and machine learning algorithms. Irrespective of the estimator used to conduct forecasts, our results show that (i) including consumer sentiment measures from Twitter greatly improves forecast accuracy, and (ii) there are substantial gains from our proposed MIDAS procedure relative to common alternatives. |
| JEL: | C58 G17 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26505&r=all |
| By: | Clara Centeno (European Commission - JRC); Riina Vuorikari (European Commission - JRC); Yves Punie (European Commission - JRC); William O´Keeffe; Stefano Kluzer; Ana Vitorica; Roberto Lejarzegi; Iker Martinez de Soria; Juan Bartolome |
| Abstract: | Digital competence has become crucial for employability. A key challenge is for employees and job-seekers, who may not have experience or confidence with their digital skills yet the nature of their jobs, the sectors they work in and their lives are increasingly influenced by digitalisation. This report aims to provide some light to the question of which policy options could, in a practical and effective way, encourage and support labour market intermediaries in their digital skilling actions, with the use of DigComp. The report has been prepared through a collaborative work between the European Commission Joint Research Centre, the Basque Government and a set of experts, on behalf of, and in collaboration with Directorate General of Employment, Social affairs and Inclusion. |
| Keywords: | digital skills, digital competence, employability, labour market intermediaries, DigComp, skilling policies, training |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc118711&r=all |
| By: | Miroslava Szarková (University of Economics in Bratislava, Faculty of Business Management, Department of Management); Benita Belá?ová (University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | The quality and level of managers? managerial skills significantly influences the competitiveness of the company. They present a qualitative, acquired entity in educational process, which has to be constantly developed within educational programmes and improved within social interactions. In the recent period, a massive input of information and communication technologies, mostly social media, which enable an effective connection of the transfer of technologies and knowledge with the production of knowledge and information in the educational process of managers, can be observed in the process of managerial skills? improvement and development. The article deals with the knowledge and information about the possibilities of managerial skills? development using information communication technologies in companies acting in the Slovak Republic. It compares the results of the monitoring obtained within the project APVV SK-CZ -0108-09 with the results of the research, which was carried out in 2018-2019 within the project VEGA 1/0309/18. |
| Keywords: | Managerial skills, information communication technologies, social media, social networks, education of managers |
| JEL: | I25 M21 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:itepro:9612152&r=all |
| By: | Akgüç, Mehtap; Baiocco, Sara; Beblavy, Miroslav; Kilhoffer, Zachary |
| Abstract: | The mega-trends of digitalisation and automation have already changed labour markets and value chains around the world, with their inevitable economic and social consequences. And the pace of change is accelerating; job markets and skills requirements are evolving faster than traditional labour market practices and institutions. But what exactly are these changes, and how will governments, industry leaders, social partners and workers react to them? The current Commission has initiated substantial research and analysis into the topic, and the next incumbents should decide how to take this research forward. In order to make informed decisions, policymakers should bear in mind a number of issues. |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:24771&r=all |