nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2019‒10‒21
24 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Migrant remittances: Alternative money transfer channels By Metzger, Martina; Riedler, Tim; Pédussel Wu, Jennifer
  2. Beyond the Big Challenges facing Facebook's Libra By Jamal Bouoiyour; Refk Selmi
  3. Networks of monetary flow at native resolution By Carolina Mattsson
  4. Technology Adoption and Access to Credit via Mobile Phones By Gupta, Apoorv; Ponticelli, Jacopo; Tesei, Andrea
  5. 3G Internet and Confidence in Government By Guriev, Sergei; Melnikov, Nikita; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
  6. Review of national policy initiatives in support of digital and AI-driven innovation By Caroline Paunov; Sandra Planes-Satorra; Greta Ravelli
  7. Global E-Commerce Talks Stumble on Data Issues, Privacy, and More By Gary Clyde Hufbauer; Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu
  8. On Money As a Latent Medium of Exchange By Lagos, Ricardo; Zhang, Shengxing
  9. The Economics of the Digital Services Tax By Wolfram F. Richter
  10. Exploring heterogeneous Digital Innovation Hubs in their context By Johan Miorner; Annita Kalpaka; Jens Sorvik; Joakim Wernberg
  11. Debunking Rumors in Networks By Luca Paolo Merlino; Nicole Tabasso
  12. The Origination and Distribution of Money Market Instruments: Sterling Bills of Exchange during the First Globalisation By Accominotti, Olivier; Lucena, Delio; Ugolini, Stefano
  13. Cryptocurrencies, Currency Competition, and The Impossible Trinity By Benigno, Pierpaolo; Schilling, Linda Marlene; Uhlig, Harald
  14. Platform Competition with Multihoming on Both Sides: Subsidize or Not? By Yannis Bakos; Hanna Halaburda
  15. Testing the employment impact of automation, robots and AI: A survey and some methodological issues By Laura Barbieri; Chiara Mussida; Mariacristina Piva; Marco Vivarelli
  16. Putting Digital Innovation Hubs into Regional Context By Johan Miorner; Gabriel Rissola; Jens Sorvik; Joakim Wernberg
  17. How to avoid black markets for appointments with online booking systems By Hakimov, Rustamdjan; Heller, Christian-Philipp; Kübler, Dorothea; Kurino, Morimitsu
  18. Bitcoin: An Impossibility Theorem for Proof-of-Work based Protocols By Jacob Leshno; Philipp Strack
  19. Macroeconomics Challenges and Resilience of Emerging Market Economies By Joshua Aizenman
  20. The Paradox of Big Data By Smith, Gary
  21. The Limits of onetary Economics: On Money as a Medium of Exchange in Near-Cashless Credit Economies By Lagos, Ricardo; Zhang, Shengxing
  22. Predicting Consumer Default: A Deep Learning Approach By Stefania Albanesi; Domonkos F. Vamossy
  23. Dinero y capital ficticio. Retrospectiva y reflexión actual By Jesús Lechuga-Montenegro
  24. Assessing DOJ’s Proposed Remedy in Sprint/T-Mobile: Can Ex Ante Competitive Conditions in Wireless Markets Be Restored? By Nicholas Economides; John Kwoka; Thomas Philippon; Robert Seamans; Hal Singer; Marshall Steinbaum; Lawrence J. White

  1. By: Metzger, Martina; Riedler, Tim; Pédussel Wu, Jennifer
    Abstract: This paper first explores the role of digital financial services, e.g. mobile money systems and cryptocurrency-based systems, and their impact on the choice of migrants to send remittances. Secondly we discuss whether alternative remittances sending channels increase access to financial services for remittance-sending and remittance-receiving households. Africa, and in particularly Kenya, are pioneers in alternative money transfer systems and of tailor-made regulatory initiatives to address digital financial services. Thus, our paper focuses on the technologies of the Kenyan mobile money system, M-Pesa, and the major cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, and based on that takes into account selected experiences of other Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that in comparison to traditional remittances sending channels, mobile money transfer channels are often superior in terms of service-related features as costs of transfers for sending and receiving households, speed of delivery, availability and access to the remittances by receiving households or security of transactions. More importantly, mobile cash systems can fulfil the SDG goal of the 3 per cent fee more than 10 years earlier than envisaged in 2030. On the other side, the choice to use a specific transfer channel might be restricted by the lack of physical and technological availability of providers and means, and technological illiteracy. In addition, sending and receiving households might be cautious to use mobile cash systems due to a lack of trust in the system, the providers or regulatory authorities. Accordingly, financial inclusion beyond e-payments and outreach to the poor is not an automatism. In contrast, the use of Bitcoin-based transfer systems is more ambivalent; these systems are technically more challenging both in terms of infrastructure and literacy and more vulnerable to fraud. Some findings also indicate that Bitcoin is an incomplete and inferior substitute to which migrants refer to if their first option is not available or suffers from severe deficiencies. Future research also needs to differentiate sending and receiving households stronger according to personal features in order to deepen our understanding about the choices of and restrictions of vulnerable groups who would benefit the most from using mobile cash systems.
    Keywords: Remittances,Financial Inclusion,Bitcoin,Alternative Money,Financial Technology,Africa,Mobile Cash
    JEL: F24 G23 G28 O16 O19
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Jamal Bouoiyour (IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau, CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Refk Selmi (IRMAPE - Institut de Recherche en Management et Pays Emergents - ESC Pau, CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour)
    Abstract: The Facebook's announcement that it would create its new currency « Libra » sparked a debate with respect the added value, security and regulatory aspects of virtual currencies. Beyond the challenges facing Libra (i.e., regulatory concerns and the risk of money laundering and fraud, etc.), this study seeks to assess if the announcement of this type of project has an impact on the cryptocurrency market. A dynamic event-study methodology is used to examine the abnormal returns of Bitcoin and other major altcoin markets (in particular, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple) as a reaction of Facebook « Libra » announcement. Our results suggest that all the cryptocurrencies respond positively to the official announcement of Facebook's much-anticipated cryptocurrency project, and appear highly reactive during the succeeding days. Despite crucial differences between « Libra » and cryptocurrecies, the entrance of Facebook into the cryptocurrency market can be regarded as a stamp of approval that helps to legitimize the crypto space making it go mainstream.
    Keywords: Facebook's new Libra,Cryptocurrency market,Event study methodology
    Date: 2019–10–09
  3. By: Carolina Mattsson
    Abstract: People and companies move money with every financial transaction they make. We aim to understand how such activity gives rise to large-scale patterns of monetary flow. In this work, we trace the movement of e-money through the accounts of a mobile money system using the provider's own transaction records. The resulting transaction sequences---balance-respecting trajectories---are data objects that represent observed monetary flows. Common sequential motifs correspond to known use-cases of mobile money: digital payments, digital transfers, and money storage. We find that each activity creates a distinct network structure within the system, and we uncover coordinated gaming of the mobile money provider's commission schedule. Moreover, we find that e-money passes through the system in anywhere from minutes to months. This pronounced heterogeneity, even within the same use-case, can inform the modeling of turnover in money supply. Our methodology relates economic activity at the transaction level to large-scale patterns of monetary flow, broadening the scope of empirical study about the network and temporal structure of the economy.
    Date: 2019–10
  4. By: Gupta, Apoorv; Ponticelli, Jacopo; Tesei, Andrea
    Abstract: Farmers in developing countries often lack access to timely and reliable information about modern technologies that are essential to improve agricultural productivity. The recent diffusion of mobile phones has the potential to overcome these barriers by making information available to those previously unconnected. In this paper we study the effect of mobile phone network expansion in rural India on adoption of high yielding variety seeds and chemical fertilizers. Our empirical strategy exploits geographical variation in the construction of mobile phone towers under a large government program targeting areas without existing coverage. To explore the role of mobile phones in mitigating information frictions we analyze the content of 1.4 million phone calls made by farmers to a major call center for agricultural advice. Farmers seek advice on which seed varieties and fertilizers better meet their needs and how to use them. We find that areas receiving mobile phone coverage experience higher adoption of these technologies. We also observe that farmers are often unaware of the eligibility criteria and loan terms offered by subsidized credit programs. Consistently, we find that areas receiving mobile phone coverage experience higher take-up of agricultural credit.
    Keywords: agriculture; Credit Card; HYV Seeds; India
    JEL: E51 G21 Q16
    Date: 2019–08
  5. By: Guriev, Sergei; Melnikov, Nikita; Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina
    Abstract: How does the internet affect government approval? Using surveys of 840,537 individuals from 2,232 subnational regions in 116 countries in 2008-2017 from the Gallup World Poll and the global expansion of 3G networks, we show that an increase in internet access reduces government approval and increases the perception of corruption in government. This effect is present only when the internet is not censored and is stronger when traditional media is censored. Actual incidents of corruption translate into higher corruption perception only in places covered by 3G. In Europe, the expansion of mobile internet increased vote shares of anti-establishment populist parties.
    Keywords: 3G; Corruption; Government approval; internet; Mobile; populism
    Date: 2019–09
  6. By: Caroline Paunov (OECD); Sandra Planes-Satorra (OECD); Greta Ravelli (OECD)
    Abstract: What can we learn from new policies implemented in different OECD countries to foster digital and AI-driven innovation? This document reviews and extracts lessons from 12 national policy initiatives (four AI strategies and eight policy programmes) aimed at supporting breakthrough digital and AI-driven innovation and the application of those innovations by industry. Most selected policy initiatives actively involve multiple stakeholders from public research, industry and government, have mixed public-private funding models and seek international co-operation on AI. AI and digital research and innovation centres encourage interdisciplinarity, reduce hierarchies within centres and increase the autonomy of staff to enhance centres’ agility and spur creativity. AI strategies set specific actions to strengthen AI research and capabilities, support business adoption of AI and develop standards for the ethical use of AI. Responsible data-access and sharing regulations, infrastructure investments, and measures to ensure that AI contributes to sustainable and inclusive growth are other priorities.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence strategies, digital innovation, digital technologies, innovation policy
    JEL: O30 O31 O33 O38 O25 I28
    Date: 2019–10–17
  7. By: Gary Clyde Hufbauer (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: In early 2019, several important members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) submitted noteworthy proposals in a realm of international commerce that has evolved faster than rules to govern it: e-commerce or digital trade. While countries agree on less controversial subjects like banning unsolicited commercial electronic messages, the three leading WTO members—China, the European Union, and the United States—have big differences in their approaches to more challenging issues: data flows, data localization, privacy invasions by data collectors, transfer of source code, imposition of customs duties and internet taxes, and internet censorship. Their differing viewpoints lead Hufbauer and Lu to conclude that the prospect of reaching a high-level WTO e-commerce agreement is not promising. To reach an agreement, either most of the contentious issues must be dropped or the number of participating countries must be sharply reduced. A WTO accord, even of low ambition, would have value if only to establish basic digital norms on matters such as banning unsolicited commercial messages and protecting online consumers from fraudulent practices. A more ambitious accord covering the controversial issues should be negotiated in bilateral and/or plurilateral/regional pacts rather than in the WTO.
    Date: 2019–10
  8. By: Lagos, Ricardo; Zhang, Shengxing
    Abstract: We formulate a generalization of the traditional medium-of-exchange function of money in contexts where there is imperfect competition in the intermediation of credit, settlement, or payment services used to conduct transactions. We find that the option to settle transactions directly with money strengthens the stance of sellers of goods and services vis-a-vis intermediaries. We show this mechanism is operative even for sellers who never exercise the option to sell for cash, and that these latent money demand considerations imply monetary policy remains effective through medium-of-exchange channels even if the share of monetary transactions is arbitrarily small.
    Keywords: Cashless; credit; liquidity; monetary policy; money
    JEL: D83 E52 G12
    Date: 2019–10
  9. By: Wolfram F. Richter
    Abstract: The use of digital services is largely non-rival. This paper argues that vanishing marginal costs of supply change policy incentives. Small countries are incentivized to tax the import of digital services. In fact, various countries have already moved towards expanded source taxation of online business activities. If such practice spreads, the quality of digital services will be negatively affected. This paper argues that countries exporting digital services have reason to respond by promoting an international tax regime in which the profit earned on remote supplies of digital business services is split between the countries involved.
    Keywords: digital services, remote supply, import tax, alleviating double taxation, profit splitting
    JEL: H25 M48
    Date: 2019
  10. By: Johan Miorner; Annita Kalpaka (European Commission - JRC); Jens Sorvik; Joakim Wernberg
    Abstract: This report explores the regional variation in organisation and implementation of DIHs across six (6) different EU regions: Saxony-Anhalt (Germany), Wielkopolska (Poland), Northern Ostrobothnia (Finland), Tallinn (Estonia), Andalusia (Spain) and Central Macedonia (Greece). The case studies were conducted in conjunction with a wider survey among DIH managers and regional policy managers (RIS3) whose results are presented in a separate JRC Technical Report. While the survey covers a wider scope of questions, this report follows a comparative approach in order to identify common denominators, strengths and challenges concerning 1) how the DIHs are set-up; 2) how DIHs are fitted to the regional policy- and economic context, with particular attention given to the connection between DIHs and the regional/national smart specialisation strategy (RIS3); 3) how regions could better benefit by DIHs; 4) what are the funding sources and how they are coordinated. The report aims to contribute to our understanding of different models of DIHs registered in the DIH Catalogue (yellow pages) across regions and their respective interactions with the regional/national innovation ecosystems and specifically the smart specialisation strategies. The selected approach has also helped to highlight current good practices and suggest alternative ideas on how to set up future DIHs (e.g. multi-sided platforms model) also in view of the upcoming Digital Europe Programme (DEP).
    Keywords: Digital Innovation Hubs, DIH, Smart Specialisation Strategies, S3, RIS3, digital growth, digital transformation, digitisation, industry, SME, regional policy, survey
    Date: 2019–10
  11. By: Luca Paolo Merlino (Department of Economics University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium; Université Paris 1-Panthéon Sorbonne); Nicole Tabasso (Department of Economics Ca' Foscari University of Venice; School of Economics, University of Surrey)
    Abstract: We study the diffusion of a true and a false opinion (the rumor) in a social network. Upon hearing an opinion, individuals may believe it, disbelieve it, or debunk it through costly verification. Whenever the truth survives in steady state, so does the rumor. Online social communication exacerbates relative rumor prevalence as long as it increases homophily or verification costs. Our model highlights that successful policies in the fight against rumors increase individuals’ incentives to verify.
    Keywords: Social Networks, Rumors, Verification
    JEL: D83 D85
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Accominotti, Olivier; Lucena, Delio; Ugolini, Stefano
    Abstract: This paper presents a detailed analysis of how liquid money market instruments â?? sterling bills of exchange â?? were produced during the first globalisation. We rely on a unique data set that reports systematic information on all 23,493 bills re-discounted by the Bank of England in the year 1906. Using descriptive statistics and network analysis, we reconstruct the complete network of linkages between agents involved in the origination and distribution of London bills. Our analysis reveals the truly global dimension of the London bill market before the First World War and underscores the crucial role played by London intermediaries (acceptors and discounters) in overcoming information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders on this market. The complex industrial organisation of the London money market ensured that risky private debts could be transformed into extremely liquid and safe monetary instruments traded throughout the global financial system.
    Keywords: bill of exchange; Industrial Organisation; information asymmetry; money market
    JEL: E42 G23 L14 N20
    Date: 2019–10
  13. By: Benigno, Pierpaolo; Schilling, Linda Marlene; Uhlig, Harald
    Abstract: We analyze a two-country economy with complete markets, featuring two national currencies as well as a global (crypto)currency. If the global currency is used in both countries, the national nominal interest rates must be equal and the exchange rate between the national currencies is a risk- adjusted martingale. We call this result Crypto-Enforced Monetary Policy Synchronization (CEMPS). Deviating from interest equality risks approaching the zero lower bound or the abandonment of the national currency. If the global currency is backed by interest-bearing assets, additional and tight restrictions on monetary policy arise. Thus, the classic Impossible Trinity becomes even less reconcilable.
    Keywords: cryptocurrency; currency competition; Exchange Rates; impossible trinity; independent monetary policy; uncovered interest parity
    JEL: D53 E4 F31 G12
    Date: 2019–08
  14. By: Yannis Bakos (Stern School of Business, New York University); Hanna Halaburda (Stern School of Business, New York University)
    Abstract: As the costs of joining platforms decrease, we often see participants in both sides of two-sided platforms to multihome, a case mostly ignored in the literature on competition between two-sided platforms. We help to fill this gap by developing a model for platform competition in a differentiated setting (a Hoteling line), which is similar to other models in the literature but focuses on the case where at least some agents on each side multihome. We show that in that case the strategic interdependence between the two sides of the same platform may be of lesser importance, or even not be present at all, compared to models that assume single-homing on at least one side of the market. The implication is that when multihoming may be present on both sides of the market, the benefit of subsidizing one side (typically the one with higher price elasticity) is diminished or may not be present at all. This outcome differs from most of the two-sided platform literature, where interdependence between the two sides served by the same platform is a major result leading to the policy implication that a platform will often maximize its total profits by subsidizing one side, typically the one with more elastic demand. Our analysis shows that the common strategic advice to subsidize one side in order to maximize total profits may be limited or even incorrect when both sides multihome, which can be significant given the increasing prevalence of multihoming.
    Keywords: multihoming, platforms, two-sided platforms, network effects, platform subsidies
    JEL: L10 L81 L82 L86 O33
    Date: 2019–09
  15. By: Laura Barbieri (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Chiara Mussida (Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Mariacristina Piva (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Marco Vivarelli (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - UNU-MERIT, Maastricht, The Netherlands and IZA, Bonn, Germany)
    Abstract: The present technological revolution, characterized by the pervasive and growing presence of robots, automation, Artificial Intelligence and machine learning, is going to transform societies and economic systems. However, this is not the first technological revolution humankind has been facing, but it is probably the very first one with such an accelerated diffusion pace involving all the industrial sectors. Studying its mechanisms and consequences (will the world turn into a jobless society or not?), mainly considering the labor market dynamics, is a crucial matter. This paper aims at providing an updated picture of main empirical evidence on the relationship between new technologies and employment both in terms of overall consequences on the number of employees, tasks required, and wage/inequality effect.
    Keywords: technology, innovation, employment, skill, task, routine
    JEL: O33
    Date: 2019–09
  16. By: Johan Miorner; Gabriel Rissola (European Commission - JRC); Jens Sorvik; Joakim Wernberg
    Abstract: While digitalisation is oftentimes thought of as a global megatrend and something that transcends national borders and geographical distances, it is at the same time a very tangible process exhibiting considerable regional and sectoral variation. Against this backdrop, Digital Innovation Hubs (DIHs) (a policy initiative in the context of the Digitising European Industry (DEI) strategy of the EU) constitute an important complementary and regionally anchored policy, whose impact can be boosted if combined with other EU-wide innovation supporting initiatives (i.e. regional/national innovation strategies). After three years of the launch and successful deployment of the DIHs initiative, a survey has been conducted among DIH managers and regional policy managers working with Smart Specialisation Strategies all over the EU28. The survey provided a useful insight of the digital maturity level of the regional contexts in which DIHs operate and what role they have undertaken in their respective regions, as well as the DIHs' characteristics and activities in their regional context and other important aspects such as collaboration, strategies and funding. This report consists of a thorough analysis of the collected answers. Delivered together with a case study analysis of six (6) regional DIHs in different socio-economic contexts (separate report), they aim at providing useful evidence on current strengths, weaknesses and variations of DIHs also in view of the planning for the upcoming Digital Europe Programme (DEP) and its funding priorities.
    Keywords: Digital Innovation Hubs, DIH, Smart Specialisation Strategies, S3, RIS3, digital growth, digital transformation, digitisation, industry, SME, regional policy, survey
    Date: 2019–10
  17. By: Hakimov, Rustamdjan; Heller, Christian-Philipp; Kübler, Dorothea; Kurino, Morimitsu
    Abstract: Allocating appointment slots is presented as a new application for market design. We consider online booking systems that are commonly used by public authorities to allocate appointments for driver's licenses, visa interviews, passport renewals, etc. We document that black markets for appointments have developed in many parts of the world. Scalpers book the appointments that are offered for free and sell the slots to appointment seekers. We model the existing first-come-first-served booking system and propose an alternative system. The alternative system collects applications for slots for a certain time period and then randomly allocates slots to applicants. We investigate the two systems under conditions of low and high demand for slots. The theory predicts and lab experiments confirm that scalpers profitably book and sell slots under the current system with high demand, but that they are not active in the proposed new system under both demand conditions.
    Keywords: market design,online booking system,first come first served,scalping
    JEL: C92 D47
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Jacob Leshno (University of Chicago Booth School of Business); Philipp Strack (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: A key part of decentralized consensus protocols is a procedure for random selection, which is the source of the majority of miners cost and wasteful energy consumption in Bitcoin. We provide a simple economic model for random selection mechanism and show that any PoW protocol with natural desirable properties is outcome equivalent to the random selection mechanism used in Bitcoin.
    Keywords: Bitcoin, Random Selection, Proportional Selection Rule, Impossibility Theorem
    JEL: C72 D02
    Date: 2019–02
  19. By: Joshua Aizenman
    Abstract: A Growing share of Emerging Markets (EMs) use hybrid versions of inflation targeting (IT) that differ from the IT regimes of OECD countries. Policy interest rates among commodity countries are impacted by real exchange rate and international reserves (IR) changes, aiming at stabilizing their real exchange rate in the presence of volatile terms of trade and heightened exposure to capital inflow/outflow shocks. IT works well with independent central banks; yet, fiscal dominance concerns may hinder the efficacy and independency of central banks. This suggests experimenting with the integration of monetary rules with fiscal rules, possibly linking these rules with the operations of buffers like IR and Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). The Global Financial Crisis validated the benefits of counter-cyclical management of international reserves and SWFs in reducing the volatility of real exchange rates. Macro-prudential policies may complement or even substitute buffer policies by reducing a country’s balance sheet exposure to foreign currency debt, mitigating the risk of costly sudden-stops and capital flight. A growing share of EMs is exposed to new financial technologies (fintech), providing cheaper and faster financial services, deepening financial coverage to previously under-served populations. Deeper fintech diffusion may redirect financial intermediation from regulated banks to emerging fintech shadow banks, some of which may have global reach. These developments, and the diffusion of cryptocurrencies promising anonymized payment systems may hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy, and eventually induce greater financial instability. States may encourage the diffusion of efficient financial intermediation in ways that benefit users, while restricting the use of anonymized exchange and global monies to reduce the threat of a shrinking tax base, and to maintain financial stability.
    JEL: F02 F31 F33 F36 F4 F42
    Date: 2019–10
  20. By: Smith, Gary (Pomona College)
    Abstract: Data-mining is often used to discover patterns in Big Data. It is tempting believe that because an unearthed pattern is unusual it must be meaningful, but patterns are inevitable in Big Data and usually meaningless. The paradox of Big Data is that data mining is most seductive when there are a large number of variables, but a large number of variables exacerbates the perils of data mining.
    Keywords: data mining, big data, machine learning
    Date: 2019–01–01
  21. By: Lagos, Ricardo; Zhang, Shengxing
    Abstract: We study the transmission of monetary policy in credit economies where money serves as a medium of exchange. We find that-in contrast to current conventional wisdom in policy-oriented research in monetary economics-the role of money in transactions can be a powerful conduit to asset prices and ultimately, aggregate consumption, investment, output, and welfare. Theoretically, we show that the cashless limit of the monetary equilibrium (as the cash-and-credit economy converges to a pure-credit economy) need not correspond to the equilibrium of the nonmonetary pure-credit economy. Quantitatively, we find that the magnitudes of the responses of prices and allocations to monetary policy in the monetary economy are sizeable-even in the cashless limit. Hence, as tools to assess the effects of monetary policy, monetary models without money are generically poor approximations- even to idealized highly developed credit economies that are able to accommodate a large volume of transactions with arbitrarily small aggregate real money balances.
    Keywords: asset prices; Cashless; credit; leverage; liquidity; margin; monetary policy
    JEL: D83 E52 G12
    Date: 2019–10
  22. By: Stefania Albanesi; Domonkos F. Vamossy
    Abstract: We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model is interpretable and is able to provide a score to a larger class of borrowers relative to standard credit scoring models while accurately tracking variations in systemic risk. We argue that these properties can provide valuable insights for the design of policies targeted at reducing consumer default and alleviating its burden on borrowers and lenders, as well as macroprudential regulation.
    Keywords: consumer default, credit scores, deep learning, macroprudential policy
    JEL: D14 E44 G21
    Date: 2019–09
  23. By: Jesús Lechuga-Montenegro
    Keywords: dinero endógeno; capital ficticio; banca en la sombra; financiarización; endogenous money; fictitious capital; shadow banking; financialization.
    JEL: B14 B24 B41 G15
    Date: 2019–01–01
  24. By: Nicholas Economides (Professor of Economics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York, New York 10012); John Kwoka (Neal F. Finnegan Distinguished Professor of Economics, College of Social Sciences and Humanities, Northeastern University); Thomas Philippon (Max L. Heine Professor of Finance, NYU Stern School of Business, New York, New York 10012); Robert Seamans (Associate Professor of Management and Organizations, NYU Stern School of Business, New York, New York 10012); Hal Singer (Managing Director at Econ One, Adjunct Professor at Georgetown McDonough School of Business); Marshall Steinbaum (Assistant Professor, Economics Department, University of Utah); Lawrence J. White (Robert Kavesh Professor of Economics, NYU Stern School of Business, New York, New York 10012)
    Abstract: As economists with significant experience in competition and regulatory matters, we offer comments on the remedies proposed by the Department of Justice to address the competitive effects flowing from the proposed merger of Sprint and T-Mobile, as recognized by the DOJ’s Complaint. We find that the Proposed Final Judgment cannot and will not address the anticompetitive harms identified in the Complaint, or restore the ex ante competitive conditions in the affected antitrust product markets. By eliminating Sprint as an independent competitor, the Sprint/T-Mobile merger, even in the presence of DOJ’s proposed remedy, would inflict serious antitrust injury on consumers and competition.
    Keywords: Telecommunications; Merger; Tunney Act; Sprint; T-Mobile; Dish; DOJ
    JEL: L1 L4 L5 L9
    Date: 2019–10

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