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on Payment Systems and Financial Technology |
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Issue of 2019‒08‒26
34 papers chosen by |
| By: | John P. Conley (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | The World Bank's mission is to end extreme poverty and increase shared prosperity. A key driver for this is increasing financial and social inclusion, especially for poor and marginalized populations. Essential first steps to achieving these goals are providing providing official identities to the estimated one billion or more displaced and impoverished people who do not at present possess them, and bringing the even larger number of unbanked and under-banked out of the shadow economy and into the formal sector. This paper explores how blockchain fits in as a key enabling technology to achieve these goals while at the same time protecting the privacy and security of vulnerable populations. We also discuss the role blockchain could play in empowering people to obtain fair value for their skills and efforts, even in environments with weak or corrupt institutions. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain, Financial Inclusion, Economic Mobility, KYC, AML, Fintech, Decentralized Identity, Biometrics, Privacy, Distributed Business Processes, Smart Cities, IoT, Civil Society |
| JEL: | G2 O3 |
| Date: | 2019–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-19-00015&r=all |
| By: | Angelopoulos, Michail; Kontakou, Christina; Pollalis, Yannis |
| Abstract: | In an era of increasing technological transformation, industries, competitors, and companies are combining platforms to create unique methods for engagement. Survival and growth in a rapidly changing marketplace require companies to embrace internal innovation that adds value for both channel members and customers. The fourth industrial revolution has already begun to take shape, on the road to an end-to-end value chain, by using Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and decentralized intelligence in manufacturing, production and logistics. The world is heading toward a digitized future. Already, an entire generation has grown up immersed in the digital world. This paper focus on the following fields: General Strategy and Procedural Aspects of Digital Transformation, Digital Transformation and Lean, Lean Digital Management, Applying Lean Digital Transformation and Transformation of Enterprise Resource Planning Systems to Smart Engaged Systems. Finally, this research study the challenges of Digital Transformation in Energy Industry of Utilities. |
| Keywords: | Digital Transformation, Lean, Lean Digital Management, Digital Transformation in Energy |
| JEL: | L00 L10 L94 M0 M1 M21 O32 |
| Date: | 2019–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95523&r=all |
| By: | Jason Teutsch; Christian Reitwie{\ss}ner |
| Abstract: | Bitcoin and Ethereum, whose miners arguably collectively comprise the most powerful computational resource in the history of mankind, offer no more power for processing and verifying transactions than a typical smart phone. The system described herein bypasses this bottleneck and brings scalable computation to Ethereum. Our new system consists of a financial incentive layer atop a dispute resolution layer where the latter takes form of a versatile "verification game." In addition to secure outsourced computation, immediate applications include decentralized mining pools whose operator is an Ethereum smart contract, a cryptocurrency with scalable transaction throughput, and a trustless means for transferring currency between disjoint cryptocurrency systems. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1908.04756&r=all |
| By: | John P. Conley (Vanderbilt University) |
| Abstract: | Blockchain, SSL certificates, HTTPS, cryptocurrencies, public/private key pairs, VPNs, and many other important technologies are all applications of two basic ideas from cryptography: encryption and hash functions. This paper explains these two ideas and shows how they have been deployed in different combinations to create applications that drive the Internet and technologies that will shape our economy in the future. |
| Keywords: | Blockchain, SSL certificates, HTTPS, cryptocurrencies, public/private key pairs, PKK, VPN, cryptography, encryption,hash functions |
| JEL: | D8 C6 |
| Date: | 2019–08–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:van:wpaper:vuecon-sub-19-00014&r=all |
| By: | Jason Teutsch; Michael Straka; Dan Boneh |
| Abstract: | In December 2015, a bounty emerged to establish both reliable communication and secure transfer of value between the Dogecoin and Ethereum blockchains. This prized "Dogethereum bridge" would allow parties to "lock" a DOGE coin on Dogecoin and in exchange receive a newly minted WOW token in Ethereum. Any subsequent owner of the WOW token could burn it and, in exchange, earn the right to "unlock" a DOGE on Dogecoin. We describe an efficient, trustless, and retrofitting Dogethereum construction which requires no fork but rather employs economic collateral to achieve a "lock" operation in Dogecoin. The protocol relies on bulletproofs, Truebit, and parametrized tokens to efficiently and trustlessly relay events from the "true" Dogecoin blockchain into Ethereum. The present construction not only enables cross-platform exchange but also allows Ethereum smart contracts to trustlessly access Dogecoin. A similar technique adds Ethereum-based smart contracts to Bitcoin and Bitcoin data to Ethereum smart contracts. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1908.03999&r=all |
| By: | Lorde, Troy; Joseph, Tennyson S D |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on how Airbnb, an internet platform which has created the possibility for mass participation in the tourism market, is resulting in class conflict between new entrants and the ‘traditional’ tourism industry. Specifically, it studies how traditional tourism interests in Barbados have responded to Airbnb by seeking to restrict participation in the industry and presents this as a microcosm of broader class transitions and conflicts associated with new technologies. The paper utilises a Marxist theoretical perspective buttressed by Joseph Schumpeter’s theory of ‘creative destruction’ – places emphasis on the process of destroying productive systems to understand how specific industries expand and survive – and Clayton Christensen’s notion of ‘disruptive innovation’ – a process by which a disruptive product transforms a market – for studying how transformations in technology are impacting the tourism industry in Barbados. Its aim is to provide an account of how the process of disruption is unfolding in Barbados by highlighting the reactions of the main hotel lobby group to Airbnb, while also applying the ideas of Marx, Schumpeter and Christensen as useful theoretical lenses through which to examine the unfolding of the process of disruption of settled class and historical control of a dominant economic sector by new technologies. |
| Keywords: | Airbnb Marxist theory creative destruction disruptive innovation tourism industry class relations |
| JEL: | B51 L83 O1 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95488&r=all |
| By: | Halminen, Olli; Tenhunen, Henni; Heliste, Antti; Seppälä, Timo |
| Abstract: | Abstract Venture Capital (VC) funding raised by companies producing Artificial Intelligence (AI) solutions is on the rise. In healthcare, VC funding is distributed unevenly and certain technologies have attracted significantly more funding than others. The funding decisions made by VC companies also work as a technology driver for the industry. We analyzed a database of 106 Healthcare AI companies collected from open online sources to understand factors affecting VC funding of AI companies operating in different areas of healthcare. Companies acting as R&D catalysts have been most succesful in raising VC funding. The results suggest that there is a significant connection between higher funding and having research organizations and pharmaceutical companies as the customer of the product or service. In addition, focusing on AI solutions that are applied to direct patient care delivery is associated with lower funding. We discuss the implications of our findings on health technology research and development, and on the barriers of platform data markets in healthcare industry. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Intelligence, Capital Funding, Technology |
| JEL: | G2 G24 I1 I19 |
| Date: | 2019–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:68&r=all |
| By: | Burkhard Heer; Andreas Irmen |
| Abstract: | Prettner (2019) studies the implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share in a variant of the Solow-Swan model. The aggregate production function allows for two types of capital, traditional and automation capital. Traditional capital and labor are imperfect substitutes whereas automation capital and labor are perfect substitutes. In this paper, we point to a flaw in Prettner’s analysis that invalidates his main analytical and computational findings. In contrast to Prettner, we argue that both kinds of capital are perfect substitutes as stores of value, and, therefore, must earn the same rate of return in equilibrium. Our computational analysis shows that the model dramatically overestimates the actual decline in the US labor share over the last 50 years. |
| Keywords: | automation, declining labor share, capital accumulation, long-run growth |
| JEL: | O11 O33 O41 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7730&r=all |
| By: | Decarolis, Francesco; Rovigatti, Gabriele |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of intermediaries' concentration on the allocation of revenues in online platforms. We study sponsored search - the sale of ad space on search engines through online auctions - documenting how advertisers increasingly bid through a handful of specialized intermediaries. This enhances automated bidding and data pooling, but lessens competition whenever the intermediary represents competing advertisers. Using data on nearly 40 million Google's keyword-auctions, we first apply machine learning algorithms to cluster keywords into thematic groups serving as relevant markets. Then, through an instrumental variable strategy, we quantify a negative and sizeable impact of intermediaries' concentration on platform's revenues. |
| Keywords: | Buyer Power; Concentration; online advertising; platforms; Sponsored Search |
| JEL: | C72 D44 L81 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13897&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates linkages between the mobile phone, information sharing offices (ISO) and financial sector development in 53 African countries for the period 2004-2011. ISO are private credit bureaus and public credit registries. The empirical evidence is based on contemporary and non-contemporary quantile regressions. Two main hypotheses are tested: mobile phones complement ISO to enhance the formal financial sector (Hypothesis 1) and mobile phones complement ISO to reduce the informal financial sector (Hypothesis 2). The hypotheses are largely confirmed. This research adds to the existing body of literature by engaging hitherto unexplored dimensions of financial sector development and investigating the role of mobile phones in information sharing for financial sector development. |
| Keywords: | Information sharing; Banking sector development; Africa |
| JEL: | G20 G29 L96 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/016&r=all |
| By: | Dini, Paolo; Kioupkiolis, Alexandros |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the question whether complementary currencies can help us think and practice politics in new and different ways which contribute to democratic change and civic empowerment in our times. The space created by the Sardex complementary currency circuit in Sardinia (2009-to date) seems to leave enough room for the emergence of a collective micropolitical consciousness. At the same time, the design of a technological and financial infrastructure is also an alternative political, or “alter-political” choice. Both are alternative to hegemonic politics and to typical modes of mobilization and contestation. Thus, the Sardex circuit can best be understood as an alter-political combination of the bottom-up micropolitics of personal interactions within the circuit and of the politics of technology implicit in the top-down design of the technological and financial infrastructure underpinning the circuit. The Sardex experience suggests that a market that mediates the (local) real economy only and shuts out the financial economy can provide economic sustainability by supporting SMEs, supply a shield against the adverse effects of financial crises, and counteract the fetishization of money by disclosing daily its roots in social construction within a controlled environment of mutual responsibility, solidarity, and trust. We broached the Sardex currency and circuit in such terms in order to illustrate a significant and effective instance of alter-politics in our times and also to indicate, more specifically, community financial innovations which could be taken up and re-deployed to democratize or “commonify” local economies. |
| Keywords: | alternative politics; commons; complementary currencies; micropolitics; mutual credit; politics of technology; SME empowerment |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2019–07–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101368&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Xiaobing; Min, Shi |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290978&r=all |
| By: | Jason Teutsch; Vitalik Buterin; Christopher Brown |
| Abstract: | Ethereum has emerged as a dynamic platform for exchanging cryptocurrency tokens. While token crowdsales cannot simultaneously guarantee buyers both certainty of valuation and certainty of participation, we show that if each token buyer specifies a desired purchase quantity at each valuation then everyone can successfully participate. Our implementation introduces smart contract techniques which recruit outside participants in order to circumvent computational complexity barriers. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1908.04295&r=all |
| By: | Fitch, Dillon; Thigpen, Calvin; Cruz, Antonio; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | Bicycling is on the rise in many cities in part owing to substantial public investment in bicycle infrastructure. However, concerns over road safety continue to impede bicycling, suggesting a need for continued investments. But on what roads should improvements be made, and what types of facilities should be built to most benefit bicyclists? To better understand the link between how new bicycle infrastructure influences the routes that bicyclists choose, researchers analyzed bicyclists’ route choice before and after a 45% increase in bike lanes and 178% increase in sharrows (among other bicycle investments) in the City of San Francisco. San Francisco is an informative setting due to having a unique confluence of events, where rapid investment in bicycling infrastructure coincided with novel bicyclist route measurements through the smartphone app CycleTracks and a survey of CycleTracks users. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Behavior, Bicycle facilities, Capital investments, Crowdsourcing, Data collection, Global Positioning System, Mobile applications, Smartphones, Travel surveys |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt19d428w5&r=all |
| By: | Singh, A. |
| Abstract: | Ownership has long been a symbol of status in Russia but as the consumer behavior is getting changed in developed and developing countries due to digital transformation, Russia is not an exception anymore. There’s a paradigm shift in consumer behavior and collaborative consumption is leading this phenomenon. However, beyond some theoretical evidence, there is a dearth of understanding why people participate in collaborative consumption in Russia. Therefore, this research investigates the people’s motivation behind their participation in collaborative consumption. Apart from socio-technological factors, this research also explores the intricate interplay in between social and technological phenomenon behind the collaborative consumption. In this regard, this research addresses three research questions, which are, what is the interplay in social and technological context in collaborative consumption? What are the socio-technologic factors that have an impact on a particular individual participation towards collaborative consumption? How to balance managing social and technological context of collaborative consumption? This is a conceptual paper which explains the social and technological factors that underlies the peoples’ motivation behind their participation towards collaborative consumption. |
| Keywords: | collaborative consumption, socio-technological factors, sharing economy, cconsumer behavior, social, social media, technology, emerging market, Russia, |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sps:wpaper:16125&r=all |
| By: | Lakkakula, Prithviraj; Bullock, David W.; Wilson, William W. |
| Keywords: | Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291197&r=all |
| By: | Chris Warhurst (Warwick Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick); Wil Hunt (Warwick Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper outlines claims about the ‘future of work’ (as the shorthand for work and employment) and the policy responses to those claims. It is based on a review of the academic and grey literatures on digitalisation and the future of work. The paper first explains the two main developments by which the new digital technologies are shaping work and employment – Industrie 4.0 and Uberisation, and the claims of the death of work and the death of employment arising respectively from these developments. It then examines the policy responses to each development, finding responses to the first to be centred on welfare rights and the second to be centred on labour rights. It also examines past and newly emerging empirical evidence about the future of work, including other trends that are impacting this future. The review suggests that digital technology will not deterministically shape the future of work but that options and choices exist over what and how technology is implemented and with what effects. It concludes by offering a number of policy pointers about how the future of work and its understanding can be better developed. |
| Keywords: | digitalisation, future of work, labour rights, technological determinism, welfare rights |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:laedte:201905&r=all |
| By: | Kho, Kevin; Lakdawala, Leah; Nakasone, Eduardo |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291052&r=all |
| By: | Shen, Ze; Wan, Qing; Leatham, David J. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290696&r=all |
| By: | Zhu, Zhongkun; Leng, Chenxin; Delgado, Michael |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290988&r=all |
| By: | Xavier Parisot (IKI-SEA - The Institute for Knowledge and Innovation South East Asia (Bangkok University)); Thierry Isckia (LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School); Pierre Vialle (LITEM - Laboratoire en Innovation, Technologies, Economie et Management - UEVE - Université d'Évry-Val-d'Essonne - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, MMS - Département Management, Marketing et Stratégie - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - TEM - Télécom Ecole de Management - IMT-BS - Institut Mines-Télécom Business School) |
| Abstract: | Since the first empirical definition of business ecosystems (BEs), its central orchestration dynamic has been defined as co-evolutive. If the nature of the associated mechanisms is still debated, the co-evolutionary nature of inter-organizational innovation processes has been largely demonstrated. Platform-based ecosystems are characterized by a flexible and scalable architecture of cooperation designed to leverage collective intelligence. In such a context, platforms serve as a backbone for inter-organizational collaboration and facilitate interactions. But for a platform-based ecosystem to flourish inter-organizational coevolutionary processes have to be triggered. To better understand how platform-based ecosystems achieve such goal, an empirical and theoretical characterization of the associated co-evolutionary processes is of utmost importance. However, current analogical transpositions of co-evolutionary mechanisms from biology to strategic management are still disparate and partial. To leverage our understanding of co-evolutionary mechanisms involved in biological complex adaptive systems, the application of a metaphorical transposition is necessary. The metaphorical transposition of coevolutionary mechanisms in organizational sciences enables the distinction between several mechanisms: mimicry, co-adaptation, and 3 different forms of co-evolutive mutualisms. This distinction allows a better understanding of platforms coordination processes, thus opening the way for the empirical identification of specific generative mechanisms and their related triggering factors. |
| Keywords: | Metaphor,Co-evolution,Innovation management,Strategic management,Ecosystems,Platform |
| Date: | 2019–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02264571&r=all |
| By: | Marchenko, Maria |
| Abstract: | Different types of shocks, or the treatment of one of the players in a specific network, may influence not only the future performance of themselves but also affect their network connections. It is crucial to explore the behaviour of the whole network in response to such an event. This paper focuses on the cases of endogenously formed shock. The logic used in the peer effect literature is adopted to develop the dynamic model and accounts for the endogeneity of the shock. The model allows us to predict the endogenous part of the shock and use the remaining unexpected component to estimate the effect of the shock on the changes in the performance of network connections. The identification conditions for effect are derived, and the consistent estimation procedure is proposed. |
| Keywords: | social networks, dynamic networks, peer effects, endogenous shock |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:7099&r=all |
| By: | Maria Marchenko (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | Different types of shocks, or the treatment of one of the players in a specific network, may influence not only the future performance of themselves but also affect their network connections. It is crucial to explore the behaviour of the whole network in response to such an event. This paper focuses on the cases of endogenously formed shock. The logic used in the peer effect literature is adopted to develop the dynamic model and accounts for the endogeneity of the shock. The model allows us to predict the endogenous part of the shock and use the remaining unexpected component to estimate the effect of the shock on the changes in the performance of network connections. The identification conditions for effect are derived, and the consistent estimation procedure is proposed. |
| Keywords: | social networks, dynamic networks, peer effects, endogenous shock |
| JEL: | C21 C49 I21 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp291&r=all |
| By: | Anna Stelzer |
| Abstract: | This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performance is evaluated over four different data sets in combination with five data sampling strategies to tackle existing class imbalances in the data. Six different performance measures are used to cover different aspects of predictive performance. The results indicate a strong superiority of ensemble methods and show that simple sampling strategies deliver better results than more sophisticated ones. |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1907.12996&r=all |
| By: | Badruddoza, Syed; Amin, Modhurima D. |
| Keywords: | Research Methods/ Statistical Methods |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291210&r=all |
| By: | Nir Billfeld; Moshe Kim |
| Abstract: | A new and an enriched JPEG algorithm is provided for identifying redundancies in a sequence of irregular noisy data points which also accommodates a reference-free criterion function. Our main contribution is by formulating analytically (instead of approximating) the inverse of the transpose of JPEGwavelet transform without involving matrices which are computationally cumbersome. The algorithm is suitable for the widely-spread situations where the original data distribution is unobservable such as in cases where there is deficient representation of the entire population in the training data (in machine learning) and thus the covariate shift assumption is violated. The proposed estimator corrects for both biases, the one generated by endogenous truncation and the one generated by endogenous covariates. Results from utilizing 2,000,000 different distribution functions verify the applicability and high accuracy of our procedure to cases in which the disturbances are neither jointly nor marginally normally distributed. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1908.02166&r=all |
| By: | Ningyuan Chen; Guillermo Gallego; Zhuodong Tang |
| Abstract: | We show the equivalence of discrete choice models and the class of binary choice forests, which are random forest based on binary choice trees. This suggests that standard machine learning techniques based on random forest can serve to estimate discrete choice model with an interpretable output. This is confirmed by our data driven result that states that random forest can accurately predict the choice probability of any discrete choice model. Our framework has unique advantages: it can capture behavioral patterns such as irrationality or sequential searches; it handles nonstandard formats of training data that result from aggregation; it can measure product importance based on how frequently a random customer would make decisions depending on the presence of the product; it can also incorporate price information. Our numerical results show that binary choice forest can outperform the best parametric models with much better computational times. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1908.01109&r=all |
| By: | Gopal K. Basak; Pranab Kumar Das; Sugata Marjit; Debashis Mukherjee; Lei Yang |
| Abstract: | In this paper we show, using a Machine Learning Framework and utilising a substantial corpus of media articles on Brexit, confirmed evidence of co-integration and causality between the ensuing media sentiments and British currency. The novel contribution of this paper is that along with sentiment analysis using commonly used lexicons, we devised a method using Bayesian learning to create a more context aware and more informative lexicon for Brexit. Moreover, leveraging and extending this we can unearth hidden relationship between originating media sentiments and related economic and financial variables. Our method is a distinct improvement over the existing ones and can predict out of sample outcomes better than conventional ones. |
| Keywords: | digitization, machine learning |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7760&r=all |
| By: | Terry McKinley (IPC-IG) |
| Abstract: | "We have been living through the third industrial revolution?'digitalisation'?since 1980. However, the fourth industrial revolution (driven mainly by robotics and artificial intelligence) already appears to be fast approaching. What will be its likely impacts on jobs, incomes and economic inequality? And, more importantly, what can be done about them? This One Pager focuses on this revolution's practical implications for social protection programmes". (...) |
| Keywords: | fourth industrial revolution, impact on jobs, scale up, skills, development, training |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:425&r=all |
| By: | Grunenberg, Michael |
| Abstract: | Kommunikation spielt eine Schlüsselrolle bei der Herausbildung sogenannter policy beliefs. Am Beispiel der wieder aktuell gewordenen Debatte um die Ferkelkastration zeigen die Autoren, wie die Kommunikationsstruktur die Einschätzung von Alternativen zur betäubungslosen Ferkelkastration beeinflusst. Basierend auf dem Modell der Belief-Bildung und Daten aus einer Stakeholderbefragung werden einflussreiche Gruppen identifiziert, die den Austausch von Wissen zur Nutztierhaltung prägen. Durch die Simulation von Kommunikationsprozessen zur Kastration unter Schmerzausschaltung, der Immunokastration und der Ebermast werden diese Effekte veranschaulicht. |
| Keywords: | farm animal welfare,social network effects,policy beliefs |
| JEL: | D83 Q00 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauapw:wp201801&r=all |
| By: | Qingliang Fan; Yu-Chin Hsu; Robert P. Lieli; Yichong Zhang |
| Abstract: | Given the unconfoundedness assumption, we propose new nonparametric estimators for the reduced dimensional conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function. In the first stage, the nuisance functions necessary for identifying CATE are estimated by machine learning methods, allowing the number of covariates to be comparable to or larger than the sample size. This is a key feature since identification is generally more credible if the full vector of conditioning variables, including possible transformations, is high-dimensional. The second stage consists of a low-dimensional kernel regression, reducing CATE to a function of the covariate(s) of interest. We consider two variants of the estimator depending on whether the nuisance functions are estimated over the full sample or over a hold-out sample. Building on Belloni at al. (2017) and Chernozhukov et al. (2018), we derive functional limit theory for the estimators and provide an easy-to-implement procedure for uniform inference based on the multiplier bootstrap. The empirical application revisits the effect of maternal smoking on a baby's birth weight as a function of the mother's age. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1908.02399&r=all |
| By: | Loermann, Julius; Maas, Benedikt |
| Abstract: | We use a machine learning approach to forecast the US GDP value of the current quarter and several quarters ahead. Within each quarter, the contemporaneous value of GDP growth is unavailable but can be estimated using higher-frequency variables that are published in a more timely manner. Using the monthly FRED-MD database, we compare the feedforward artificial neural network forecasts of GDP growth to forecasts of state of the art dynamic factor models and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and we evaluate the relative performance. The results indicate that the neural network outperforms the dynamic factor model in terms of now- and forecasting, while it generates at least as good now- and forecasts as the Survey of Professional Forecasters. |
| Keywords: | Nowcasting; Machine learning; Neural networks; Big data |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E32 |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95459&r=all |
| By: | Marchenko, Maria |
| Abstract: | Exam failures of the students in a specific network may influence not only the future performance of the student but also all students from their friendship networks, affecting the overall cohort's performance. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how the whole network responses to failure. The difficulty of such analysis is incorporated in the probability of the failures being highly endogenous. In this paper, I am applying the novel identification and estimation approach to deal with such endogeneity. I am exploring the dynamic data on the students' networks in HSE, Nizhniy Novgorod. The results suggest that, on average, the exam failure of the friend have a negative effect on future performance. |
| Keywords: | social networks, peer effects, exam failures, shock spillover |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wus005:7100&r=all |
| By: | Lorde, Troy; Jacob, Jadon; Weekes, Quinn |
| Abstract: | This study investigated the price-setting behaviour of hosts in the tourism sharing economy in the Caribbean. Generally speaking, we find that site, reputation, convenience, personal and amenities attributes, along with country-level indicators significantly affect prices in the Caribbean. More specifically, most attributes have a positive effect on price-setting. Larger accommodations charge higher prices. Hosts with superior reputations charge higher prices. However, listings with a larger number of ratings are associated with lower prices. This may be an artefact of tourists’ preferences for cheaper sharing accommodations, resulting in a relatively higher volume of reviews for properties at the lower end of the price spectrum. Provision of Convenience options have an overall positive effect on prices, although there is evidence that some options can result in lower prices for tourists. The sole Personal attribute investigated is associated with higher price-setting behaviour. Virtually all amenities examined result in greater prices being charged for the space. Results indicate that geography has significant effects on price-setting behaviour. Listings in countries with greater economic and infrastructural development, greater biodiversity, but weaker exchange rates have higher prices. On the other hand, prices are lower in countries where there is more competition for customers. |
| Keywords: | tourism, sharing economy, Airbnb, Caribbean, price-setting behaviour |
| JEL: | L83 O54 |
| Date: | 2018–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95475&r=all |