nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2019‒01‒07
25 papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Internet Platforms' Threats: Facebook, Google, etc. By Alleman, James
  2. "Geo-Political Economy" and Ecosystem in Asian I&CT Markets By Kawamata, Takahiro
  3. Bridging the Digital Divide: Making the Digital Economy Benefit to the Entire Society By Zhang, Bin; Jin, Zhiye; Peng, Zhidao
  4. Navigating the Cryptocurrency Landscape: An Islamic Perspective By Hina Binte Haq; Syed Taha Ali
  5. An estimation of quality-adjusted prices for mobile services in Korea By Kim, Wook Joon; Kim, Yongkyu
  6. Critical Assessment of Institutional and Regulatory Frameworks for Personal Data Protection in Digital Platform ecosystem: a study of Nigeria By Onyeajuwa, Martha Kanene
  7. Understanding the different pre and post peak adoption drivers in the process of Mobile Social Networking diffusion By Giovannetti, Emanuele; Hamoudia, Mohsen
  8. Antitrust for Internet Giants By Taschdjian, Martin; Alleman, James
  9. Digital Economy And Society. A Cross Country Comparison Of Hungary And Ukraine By Szabolcs Nagy
  10. E-commerce and developing country-SME participation in global value chains By Lanz, Rainer; Lundquist, Kathryn; Mansio, Grégoire; Maurer, Andreas; Teh, Robert
  11. Blockchain Economics By Joseph Abadi; Markus Brunnermeier
  12. Brazil; Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Supervision and Oversight of Financial Market Infrastructures By International Monetary Fund
  13. Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, credit cards and some internet data By María Gil; Javier J. Pérez; A. Jesús Sánchez; Alberto Urtasun
  14. Effects of an ad valorem Web Tax in a Cournot-Nash market for digital advertising By Diego d'Andria
  15. Dynamic Website of Gresik City'S Halal Life Style as the Implementation of Online Branding in a Smart City By Nastiti, Tyas Ajeng; Alfina, Alfina; Sisprasojo, Nova Ridho
  16. "Lootboxes" in digital games - A gamble with consumers in need of regulation? An evaluation based on learnings from Japan By Koeder, Marco Josef; Tanaka, Ema; Mitomo, Hitoshi
  17. Can productivity still grow in service-based economies?: Literature overview and preliminary evidence from OECD countries By Stéphane Sorbe; Peter Gal; Valentine Millot
  18. The Nature and Magnitude of the Effects of Asymmetric Regulation of Mobile Termination Rates on the Mexican Retail Prices By Robles-Rovalo, Arturo; Díaz-Goti, Emiliano; Guarneros-Gutiérrez, Rodrigo
  19. Do Children Benefit from Internet Access? Experimental Evidence from Peru By Ofer Malamud; Santiago Cueta; Julian Cristia; Diether W. Beuermann
  20. Artificial Intelligence Methods for Knowledge Management Systems By Begler, A.; Gavrilova, T.
  21. Platforms, Promotion, and Product Discovery: Evidence from Spotify Playlists Abstract: Digitization has vastly increased the amount of new music produced and, because of streaming, has raised the number of songs available directly to consumers. While enhanced availability has levelled the playing eld between already-prominent and new artists, creators may now be highly dependent on platform decisions about which songs and artist to promote. With Spotify emerging as dominant major interactive music streaming platform, this paper explores the e ect of Spotify's playlists inclusion decisions on both the promotion of songs and the discovery of music by new artists. We employ four empirical strategies for measuring the impact of playlists on song success. First, we examine songs' streaming volumes before and after their addition to, and removal from, major global playlists. Second, we compare streaming volumes for songs just on, and just o , algorithmic top 50 playlists. Third, we make use of cross-country di erences in inclusion on New Music Friday lists, using song xed e ects, to explain di erences in streaming. Fourth, we develop an instrumental variables approach to explaining cross-country New Music Friday rank di erentials based on home bias. We find large and signi cant e ects: being added to Today's Top Hits, a list with 18.5 million followers during the sample period, raises streams by almost 20 million and is worth between $116,000 and $163,000. Inclusion on New Music Friday lists substantially raises the probability of song success, including for new artists. By Luis Aguiar; Joel Waldfogel
  22. Cloud Computing and National Accounting By Diane Coyle; David Nguyen
  23. Using Enterprise Architecture Management Methods and Technologies for Knowledge Structuring in Strategic Management By Kudryavtsev, D.; Kubelskiy, M.
  24. Estimating Consumer Inertia in Repeated Choices of Smartphones By Grzybowski, Lukasz; Nicolle, Ambre
  25. A supreme test for periodic explosive GARCH By Stefan Richter; Weining Wang; Wei Biao Wu

  1. By: Alleman, James
    Abstract: Free!! Google and Facebook!!! We all know them, what to worry about? Everything! The giants of the internet are expanding into every corner of the economy, politics and our lives. They control the majority of digital advertising; Alphabet, Google's parent, and Facebook receive more than 60 percent of digital advertising revenue (Media Buying 2017); Google controls over 90 percent of search on the web (Statcounter 2017); Facebook and Google represent 40% of consumption of digital content (Economist 2017c). Facebook dominates the social media market (Galloway 2017, p. 96); Amazon has nearly 40 percent of online Xmas sales and is destroying the traditional retail outlets (Galloway 2017, p. 28). Apple earns over 90 percent of smart phone profits, although it has less than 20 percent of the market (Galloway 2017, p. 75). This paper will examine the threat to social order and democracy posed by Facebook and Google, as well as others in the internet space. Facebook, and Google have control over what information and news we receive though "black‐box" algorithms; they select what "we need." In addition, these platforms have not taken significant measures to address "fake‐news", bots, trolls, or other malicious software on the internet. Indeed, they make money off the proliferation of this misinformation. For example, even by its own calculation, "Facebook has estimated that Russian content on its network, including posts and paid ads, reached 126 million Americans, around 40% of the nation's population." (Economist 2017c) Up to 60 million Facebook accounts are fake, according to its own estimate (Shane and Isaac 2017). And according to the Economist (2017c), in the United States' presidential campaign, one out of every five political messages was posted by robots (bots) on Twitter. FANGs have a business models which encourages this type of practice (Shane and Isaac 2017). These models are designed to maximize growth and maintain users. Thus, they involve easy sign up, lack of verification of authenticity; and only, reluctantly, if at all, closing accounts with significant cause (Shane and Isaac 2017, Zittrain 2014). This paper will examine these issues in depth.
    Keywords: Advertising,Antitrust Policy,Democracy,Elections,Propaganda ICT,Internet Platforms,Political Economy
    JEL: K21 L1 L2 L4 L5 L9
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Kawamata, Takahiro
    Abstract: Since the East Asian Miracle report was published by the World Bank in 1993, East Asian countries have achieved economic development with the "flying geese pattern" respectively as well as advancements in informatization based on each political and cultural context. In particular, the revolution in information and communications technology (I&CT) drives commercial and social usage of the Internet throughout multiple devices such as personal computers, tablets, and smart-phones. East Asian cultural contexts thereby create commonalities over their territories and maintain their distinctive characters as well. While telecommunications and media industries are under governmental control, with government regulations in most Asian countries, platform businesses such as social network services (SNSs), have expanded across borders, demonstrating the principle of network externality and economy. In addition, cultural and/or social contents easily expand with identity and universality as high culture and with popularity as pop- and/or sub-cultures among younger generations within areas. This paper examines the potential of East and South East Asian markets including not only China, Korea, and Japan, but also Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, for mobile and wired communications, their technologies, services, content, and applications. It also describes the dynamism of networking among interested players over the next generation of information and communication technologies and their applications, such as SNSs and "FinTech", including mobile payment and e-commerce, as well as content including audio and visual content, and game software; in the context of the "Ecosystem" of I&CT business and the path-dependency of social shaping of technological trajectories as enhanced in each political and cultural territory. There may be a dramatic change occurring in the structure of the industry affecting not only telecommunications network components, terminal equipment vendors and software developers, but also network operators and service providers located in Asian territories. Therefore, our analysis places emphasis on the dynamic formulation of multi-tiered and multifaceted frameworks of "Geo-Cultural Informatics," which encapsulates the geo-politics and geo-economics associated with cultural informatics, within industrial clusters over Asian marketplaces. This paper also suggests a new framework of market structure with some hieratic layers and geographic areas, e.g. living area (space) 「生活圏」, commercial area (sphere)「商業圏」, economic zone (block)「経済圏」. These areas/spheres are composed with cultural and political inherence based on geography and history respectively as well as path-dependency on technological and institutional trajectory. Especially electronic commerce (e-commerce), which is not only the trade of digital contents and services, but also online shopping with digital payment/settlement, e.g. electronic money and credit card authorization including PayPal, reflects cultural contexts and/or political institutional frameworks, even if the compatibility and settlement system between nations has been ensured. In the e-commerce facilitated by FinTech, it can be seen the battles and/or alliances between Internet service providers, e.g. (US), Alibaba (CN), Tencecnt (CN), Kakao Talk (KR), LINE (JP), Facebook (US), Twitter (US), Instagram (US), and local providers, and financial providers, including credit card companies, banks, insurance and securities companies, for customer's accounts and records of their preferences and assets. We finally discuss on the geo-political economic issues of the digital economy in Asian living/commercial/economic areas/spheres within the ecosystem of ICT.
    Keywords: Evolution of Technology,Ecosystem of industries,Geo-politics,Geo-economics,"Geo-cultural informatics"
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Zhang, Bin; Jin, Zhiye; Peng, Zhidao
    Abstract: With the development of information technology, the connotation of the Digital Divide has evolved constantly. At present, we have entered the new era of "Digital Economy" and newer information technologies such as Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Internet of Things, and Cloud Computing have been widely developed and applied. New technologies should also be included in the measurement of the Digital Divide. At the same time, the physical gap in traditional information technology has been greatly reduced. Under the condition that physical access conditions are similar, the gap in digital technology skills and use is highlighted. Under such circumstances, the measurement of the Digital Divide should be more concerned with Digital Literacy and Digital Experience. Under the background of the Digital Economy, the existence of the Digital Divide means that there is a huge first-mover advantage for the party at a more advanced position. Countries, regions and communities with faster information development will be able to use information dividends promptly to promote their own economic development. However, the party that is far lagging behind will have fewer opportunities to participate in the information-based Digital Economy. At the same time that economic development is at a disadvantage, because under the new economy condition, more work and social activities are closely related to information technology, therefore, opportunities for the information poor to participate in online education, training, entertainment, shopping and communication have also become fewer, and these have exacerbated social inequalities. In this study, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis were used to study the Digital Divide evaluation system in the era of Digital Economy. In the qualitative part of this article, we summarize the definition of Digital Economy, the definition of Digital Divide and the measurement theory of regional Digital Divide by studying the literature, laying a solid theoretical foundation for the research of this article. Starting from the six aspects of Digital Technology Infrastructure, ICT Readiness, Economy Development, Government Innovation Support, Education and Digital Literature, Digital Contents and Applications, we put forward research hypotheses and build the corresponding evaluation system model. In the quantitative research part of this paper, empirical research methods were used to verify the hypothesis and model. Among them, through a large amount of domestic research data collected from China Statistical Yearbook, with SPSS statistical analysis software to process the data, this paper proposes a complete index system of informatization and Digital Divide evaluation in the Digital Economy era and weights distribution for the system, using Factor Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy Process and Expert Interview Methods. On this basis, this article understands the current situation of informatization development and regional Digital Divide by the calculation of the index. Through the Clustering Analysis and Average Deviation Analysis, we analyze the causes of the Digital Divide formation, understand the gap of regional informatization and digital development, and find the weakness in digital development. Then, we put forward some suggestions that can effectively improve bridging the Digital Divide to solve the "information gap", "knowledge division" and "rich and poor division" between regions due to the development and application level gap. It provides reference for bridging the Digital Divide and promoting regional information, economic and cultural balanced development. This will enable digital technology to be more utilized in the process of promoting the development of the Digital Economy. Giving full play to the connectivity of the Internet will allow the Digital Economy to benefit more regions and enhance the well-being of the entire society.
    Keywords: Digital Divide,Digital Economy,Evaluation Index System,Policy Suggestion
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Hina Binte Haq; Syed Taha Ali
    Abstract: Almost a decade on from the launch of Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies continue to generate headlines and intense debate. What started as an underground experiment by a rag tag group of programmers armed with a Libertarian manifesto has now resulted in a thriving $230 billion ecosystem, with constant on-going innovation. Scholars and researchers alike are realizing that cryptocurrencies are far more than mere technical innovation; they represent a distinct and revolutionary new economic paradigm tending towards decentralization. Unfortunately, this bold new universe is little explored from the perspective of Islamic economics and finance. Our work aims to address these deficiencies. Our paper makes the following distinct contributions We significantly expand the discussion on whether cryptocurrencies qualify as "money" from an Islamic perspective and we argue that this debate necessitates rethinking certain fundamental definitions. We conclude that the cryptocurrency phenomenon, with its radical new capabilities, may hold considerable opportunity which merits deeper investigation.
    Date: 2018–11
  5. By: Kim, Wook Joon; Kim, Yongkyu
    Abstract: The introduction of smartphones marked a transitional phase in the evolution of pricing for mobile communications service markets. Wireless operators migrated to supplying data centric tariffs which have characteristics that are different from the old, which makes it ever more difficult for conventional price indexes to reflect consumers' valuation in a timely and precise manner. However, little information has been known about the mobile service price developments embodying such technological change, although they are critical to our understanding of economic benefits from communications technologies. We consider service quality change to adjust the price of mobile service products. To the extent which prices are determined by quality change, taking into consideration tariffs' usage allowances practiced by operators is essential if we are to understand how prices change in the era of smartphones. We use hedonic regression techniques to estimate quality-adjusted price indexes for smartphone communication service products 2010-2017 in Korea. We investigate a total of 209 mobile plan observations sold by the major operators, where the focus is on tracing down the introduction of new plans as well as the variations in prices and characteristics over the periods concerned. We compute the weight of each observation by using a set of combined quantity data gathered from the Ministry of Science and ICT of Korea and KMPSS. The study reports the weighted averages of prices and characteristics, and chooses to implement the two-year adjacent non-linear regressions to construct estimated quality-adjusted price indices for mobile services. The results show a price decline of 8.1% per year over the periods, as specifying the timing and size of price movements across operators. We briefly discuss findings of the study to provide policy recommendations.
    Keywords: hedonic price index,mobile service,smartphone,substitution,quantity weights,pricing,competition
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Onyeajuwa, Martha Kanene
    Abstract: Platform ecosystem has spawned a rapidly growing data-driven economy across the globe. The emerging platform models have been adjudged to have a positive impact on quality of life by engendering economic growth. However, as technologies become more intelligent and intrusive, there is a progressively higher risk of personal data being misused or compromised. This paper seeks to study the extent to which personal data is protected in Nigeria using document analysis and complementary conversational interviews, whenever the need arises. This study finds that regulatory frameworks in Nigeria are not sufficiently focused in addressing the issues of personal data protection when compared with principles of best practice in privacy and data protection. In addition, the players (financial entities and telecoms) do not abide by fair information principles; thus, customers and citizens remain uninformed about their rights, the potential harms inherent in the services on offer and in the choices they make. The absence of a robust enforcement institution leaves the emerging platform ecosystem virtually unregulated, which provides the platform players opportunities in exploitative use of consumer data. This paper argues that lack of personal data legislation in Nigeria constitutes an obstruction to the realisation of section 37 of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, which provides for citizen privacy and data protection. The paper further argues that the Communications regulatory framework, by limiting personal data offence to mere ST regulation 2011 infringement, plays a critical role in abstrusely commodifying customer data in ways potentially detrimental to customers. The lack of a clear legislation, despite the guarantee of citizen privacy and data protection by the 1999 Nigerian Constitution, is an indication of policy failure. Thus, this paper's focus on personal data protection is important, given the growing significance of digital platform ecosystem across the globe including Africa.
    Keywords: Personal data protection guidelines,platform economy,Digital Financial Services,International Telecommunication Union,Nigerian Communications Commission,Central Bank of Nigeria
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Giovannetti, Emanuele; Hamoudia, Mohsen
    Abstract: The mobile provision of social networking services including integrated voice, pictures and music over IP lead to the success of companies such as Snapchat, Skype WhatsApp, Twitter or Spotify.. Understanding the rapid international diffusion of these companies' mobile integrated services, resulting from the interplay of consumers' needs and companies' appropriate marketing mixes is of clear managerial relevance, due to the profits and market value implications of the number of customers reached, while being of great research interest, given the complex role played by the different drivers affecting users' adoption decisions for these mobile social networking services. Given the interactive nature of social networking and the ensuing relevance of users' generated content, a member's utility from joining a social networking platform increases with the number of users, so that higher penetration levels increase the utility of new adopters and the expected utility of the potential ones, through direct network externalities (Katz & Shapiro, 1985, 1986). As technological change is constantly transforming and increasing the capabilities of smartphones, allowing mobile Internet access for sharing and transmitting videos, pictures music and voice, and because of the increasingly fast mobile access networks, Mobile Social Networking adoption choices are also affected by indirect network externalities due to the diffusion of smartphones, the complementary commodities required for the adoption of MSN services identified as a key driver for the adoption of mobile applications. Other likely predictors for the adoption decisions are likely to be linked to the effective prices of using mobile phones, a crucial driver for adoption of multimedia mobile services and the time spent on using them.
    Keywords: Mobile Social Networking,Diffusion,Early & Late Adopters,Indirect Network Externalities,Penetration Pricing,Interaction Models
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Taschdjian, Martin; Alleman, James
    Abstract: There can be no doubt that the FANG companies – Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, as well as Twitter – have transformed society since their emergence. Like all social transformations, the changes wrought by their services have had ripple effects that are both positive and negative. On the positive side, soaring consumer access to information, news, social networks, and entertainment has been stimulated by the ever-more ubiquitous and falling prices of broadband fixed and mobile bandwidth. E-government has transformed the delivery of public services. However, negative effects have likewise been stark. Certainly, there have been huge disruptions caused by e-commerce. Retail industries, industrial supply chains, banking and publishing are just a few obvious examples. State tax collectors are fighting the loss of sales tax collections. These problems tend to get highlighted by the losers from the process of "creative destruction." Because Facebook and Google are two-sided markets, their economic rents are "hidden" from the public . On the user side of the market, prices are zero – "free." The other side, advertising rate are "hidden." Facebook's and Google's revenues are derived from advertising which appear when you go to their sites. They can extract exorbitant prices for ads, since they are virtually the only source that can target ads directly to potential clients. Because these companies can identify you, the ads can be targeted to your specific wants and needs, even creating "wants and needs" based on your profile. So, what the "customer" – you – perceived as free is not. Indeed, you are the commodity being sold to the advertisers. While Facebook and Google Herfindahl-Hirschman indices (HHI) are high, indicating a concentrated market or highly concentrated market by several different definitions of their markets. For example, Google has 93 percent of the search market. Combined Google and Facebook currently control over half of digital advertising and one-third of total advertising. Nevertheless, no serious antitrust case or legislation has addressed this monopoly power. This paper examines the antitrust cases against Facebook and Google. In this paper, we attempt to go back to first principles to discern whether there is a more appropriate approach to examine the underlying economics of these industries in the hopes that tools can be applied that more directly address the problems.
    Keywords: Advertising,antitrust,competition,internet,media,regulation,pricing
    JEL: D4 K2 L1 L2 L5 L9
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Szabolcs Nagy
    Abstract: We live in the Digital Age in which both economy and society have been transforming significantly. The Internet and the connected digital devices are inseparable parts of our daily life and the engine of the economic growth. In this paper, first I analyzed the status of digital economy and society in Hungary, then compared it with Ukraine and made conclusions regarding the future development tendencies. Using secondary data provided by the European Commission I investigated the five components of the Digital Economy and Society Index of Hungary. I performed cross country analysis to find out the significant differences between Ukraine and Hungary in terms of access to the Internet and device use including smartphones, computers and tablets. Based on my findings, I concluded that Hungary is more developed in terms of the significant parameters of the digital economy and society than Ukraine, but even Hungary is an emerging digital nation. Considering the high growth rate of Internet, tablet and smartphone penetration in both countries, I expect faster progress in the development of the digital economy and society in Hungary and Ukraine.
    Date: 2019–01
  10. By: Lanz, Rainer; Lundquist, Kathryn; Mansio, Grégoire; Maurer, Andreas; Teh, Robert
    Abstract: Two far-reaching developments have increased the trade opportunities for SMEs in developing countries. Firstly, the rise of the internet and advances in ICT have reduced trade-related information and communication costs. Secondly, the international fragmentation of production has increased the opportunities for SMEs to specialize in narrow activities at various stages along the production chain. Using firm-level data from the World Bank's Enterprise Survey, we test whether digital connectivity, as captured by whether a firm has a website or not, facilitates the participation of manufacturing SMEs from developing countries in global value chains (GVCs). We find robust evidence that digital connectivity facilitates the participation of manufacturing SMEs in GVCs in terms of both backward and forward linkages. SMEs with a website tend to import a higher share of their inputs used for production and export a higher share of their sales as compared to SMEs without a website. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the effect of having a website on GVC participation is stronger for SMEs than for large firms. Beyond digital connectivity at the firm level, we also assess the role of a country's ICT infrastructure in facilitating GVC participation of SMEs. We find that SMEs tend to participate more in GVCs in countries where a higher share of the population has fixed broadband subscriptions. This result also holds if we control for other country-level factors such as the quality of logistics services, rule of law and access to finance. Our findings can provide guidance for policy makers in developing countries about the importance of investing in ICT infrastructure, creating a regulatory and policy environment conducive to e-commerce, and providing SMEs and workers with the digital skills and knowledge to use ICT technologies efficiently.
    Keywords: e-commerce,developing countries,small and medium-sized enterprises,global value chains
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2018
  11. By: Joseph Abadi; Markus Brunnermeier
    Abstract: When is record-keeping better arranged through a blockchain than through a traditional centralized intermediary? The ideal qualities of any record-keeping system are (i) correctness, (ii) decentralization, and (iii) cost efficiency. We point out a blockchain trilemma: no ledger can satisfy all three properties simultaneously. A centralized record-keeper extracts rents due to its monopoly on the ledger. Its franchise value dynamically incentivizes correct reporting. Blockchains drive down rents by allowing for free entry of record-keepers and portability of information to competing “forks.” Blockchains must, therefore, provide static incentives for correctness through computationally expensive proof-of-work algorithms and permit record-keepers to roll back history in order to undo fraudulent reports. While blockchains can keep track of ownership transfers, enforcement of possession rights is often better complemented by centralized record-keeping.
    JEL: D82 E42 G29
    Date: 2018–12
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Brazilian FMIs are among the top twenty worldwide. All together there are sixteen financial market infrastructures2 (FMIs) operating in the Brazilian payment system (SPB), out of which nine3 are systemically important and four belong to the top twenty FMIs in the world4. FMIs play an essential role in the Brazilian financial system and are highly relevant in terms of domestic financial stability. In terms of value of transactions, STR (Reserves Transfer System - Sistema de Transferência de Reservas), the Brazilian Real Time Gross Settlement system (RTGS) is the backbone of the SPB, and belongs to the top ten large value payment systems worldwide. SELIC is among the top ten central securities depository/securities settlement systems (CSD/SSSs), CETIP among the top twenty SSSs, and BM&FBOVESPA Clearinghouse, the largest central counterparty (CCP) in Latin America, belongs to the top ten. These infrastructures facilitate the clearing, settlement, and recording of monetary and other financial transactions, such as payments, securities, and derivatives contracts (including derivatives contracts for commodities). Brazilian post-trading services are integrated. The entities providing securities settlement services also provide other post-trade processing, acting both as a clearing house, and a CSD or as a trade repository (TR).
    Date: 2018–11–30
  13. By: María Gil (Banco de España); Javier J. Pérez (Banco de España); A. Jesús Sánchez (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (UCM) and GEN); Alberto Urtasun (Banco de España)
    Abstract: The focus of this paper is on nowcasting and forecasting quarterly private consumption. The selection of real-time, monthly indicators focuses on standard (“hard” / “soft” indicators) and less-standard variables. Among the latter group we analyze: i) proxy indicators of economic and policy uncertainty; ii) payment cards’ transactions, as measured at “Point-of-sale” (POS) and ATM withdrawals; iii) indicators based on consumption-related search queries retrieved by means of the Google Trends application. We estimate a suite of mixed-frequency, time series models at the monthly frequency, on a real-time database with Spanish data, and conduct out-of-sample forecasting exercises to assess the relevant merits of the different groups of indicators. Some results stand out: i) “hard” and payments cards indicators are the best performers when taken individually, and more so when combined; ii) nonetheless, “soft” indicators are helpful to detect qualitative signals in the nowcasting horizon; iii) Google-based and uncertainty indicators add value when combined with traditional indicators, most notably at estimation horizons beyond the nowcasting one, what would be consistent with capturing information about future consumption decisions; iv) the combinations of models that include the best performing indicators tend to beat broader-based combinations.
    Keywords: private consumption, nowcasting, forecasting, uncertainty, Google Trends.
    JEL: E27 C32 C53
    Date: 2018–12
  14. By: Diego d'Andria (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: We extend the theory of tax incidence under Cournot-Nash oligopolistic competition to study the effects of an ad valorem sales tax on Web services (so-called Web Tax) that are provided free of charge to users, and produce advertising space sold to businesses. Ads are more valuable to advertisers the more users are served by a Web service. Users have ads-neutral preferences and Web companies compete in a Cournot-Nash fashion on the advertising market but enjoy monopolistic power in the service market they serve. We demonstrate that, contrary to standard theoretical results, the equilibrium market price might be reduced by a Web Tax. The conditions for such a decrease depend upon the elasticity of ads demand.
    Keywords: Web tax, digital advertising, Cournot competition, tax incidence…
    JEL: D43 H2 L13
    Date: 2018–12
  15. By: Nastiti, Tyas Ajeng; Alfina, Alfina; Sisprasojo, Nova Ridho
    Abstract: Understanding potential of a city can be defined by some indicators. One of them is by identifying six indicators that well known as Nation Brand Hexagon. Nation Brand Hexagon are: People, Tourism, Exports, Governance, Investment and Immigration, and Culture and Heritage. By understanding and identifying those six indicators, a city can be more understand about its potential and developing it into City Branding activity. City Branding is the use of marketing techniques to give a City a unique identity in the minds of citizens, visitors, companies and investors. The needs of City Branding for a certain city or area is currently being a marketing strategy that often work effectively. The result of an effective City Branding is particularly giving a profit and a significant increase of economy value. Gresik City (older spelling: Grissee); (Javanese: Nggersik) is a regency within East Java Province of Indonesia. It includes the offshore Bawean Island, some 125 km to the north of Java and Madura. The regency's administrative center is the town of Gresik, about 25 km to the northwest of Surabaya City. Gresik City is known as a city which having a charm of Moslem religion tourism. A lot of activities based on Moslem religion in the city. The total population of 1,2 million people made Gresik City as plural cultures and also producing some products that contain high spiritual value. Beside, Gresik City is also being a city who has many industrial activities. In 2010, Gresik City's income is being the most higher in East Java. Even, the average labour's income in Gresik City is also most higher than other cities in East Java. In 2017, have been done the identification of Nation Brand Hexagon against GresikCity. As for the method that been done is through the Observations, Focus Group Discussion, as well as In-depth Interviews. Through the method of Focus Group Discussion that bring representatives of businessmen/Artists, Government, Academia, and Communities; formulated a mapping of Halal Activity in Gresik as Halal Activity octagon or 8 activities of Halal in Gresik which include : Culinary, Religion Tourism, Art, Fashion, Product and Service, Movement, Education, and Culture. As the continuity of City Branding activity in Gresik, Halal Activity octagon is being core of communication that aimed at outlining potential of Gresik City. City Branding strategy nowadays is not only a forming of City's identity but also representing the identity of digital media that contain a lot of human interaction. By using the technology and internet access, it is possible to build an dynamic website that contain Halal Activity Octagon's information, including: research, text, documentation, people who involve, etc. Dynamic website is a platform that make a possibility of two way interaction between both website's maker and user; or user and user. The function of the website is not only as the center of information about the City, but also as the promotional tools and media, marketing tools and media, and digital data of the City. By having a dynamic website, it will be easier to do some measurement about the city, such as: about satisfying, suggestion, and also the value of economy by numbers and data. In this particular research, will be done some analysis about the effectivity of mapping's projection of Gresik City's Halal Activity based on dynamic Website according to answer: the society's need and want, effective marketing, and access. The result of research is an integrated system about City Branding activity based on dynamic website that can be mapped from upstream to downstream. Moreover, this research also wished to create an innovation regarding of center of information about City's potential that can be the open bank data and can be accessed by anyone without any time and distance limitation.
    Keywords: Branding,Gresik,Dynamic Website,Smart City
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Koeder, Marco Josef; Tanaka, Ema; Mitomo, Hitoshi
    Abstract: This paper looks at the recent discussion on "Lootboxes" by regulators in several countries referring to the case of Japan in the light of business model revolutions. A game-of-chance mechanic which can be found in more and more in digital games to acquire virtual items and to help monetize these games. These Lootboxes have created several negative reactions and calls for regulation because if their gambling like elements. Japan had similar mechanics in games for a long time called "Gacha" and could serve as an interesting insight into its regulation. Firstly as introduction, this paper explains what Lootboxes are in comparison to "Gacha" in Japan and investigates whether they would qualify as gambling using a gambling taxonomy. Lootboxes and Gacha can be seen as very similar and comparable and both would not qualify as gambling in traditional way as long as it could not be converted into real world currency. Secondly, it reviews recent regulatory actions in Western and Asian countries and their reasonings to regulate or not to regulate "Lootbox" mechanism in games. Regulators approaches to "Lootbox" differ from country to country, from very strict to tolerant, often depending on their understanding and perception of Lootbox mechanis. Thirdly, this paper introduces a player's perception on Lootbox elements and business models. According to a third-party survey, players have a certain preferences and expectation on how to pay for a game or in-game items in accordance with the business model of the game. Several empirical cases showed that an inconsistency or lack of transparency between game players and game companies on how to pay for games could be a trigger for complaints by players, not whether it gambling or not, Finally, this paper summarizes findings from empirical studies and points out the necessity of further studies on "game of chance" elements in games. In the case of so called free-to-play games, the lack of winning probability could be a key issue while for full price games the issue lies more in a lack of transparency of the business model. The former suggests the importance to increase the transparency of "probability" to give players more chances to calculate their chance of winning before they paying for game of chance elements. The latter implies that business models of the game industry have been transforming and games as well as their monetization strategies could be expanded and modified interactively and ceaselessly creating issues on the players side. Both user side and developer side behavior needs to be studies more. But the focus should not only be on gambling and addictive problems -which are important- but also on the issue of business model transformation and the interaction between players and developers in a networked environment.
    Keywords: Free-to-play,Lootbox,Gacha,consumer protection,gambling,micro transactions,games,Japan,Europe,US,regulation,virtual goods
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Stéphane Sorbe; Peter Gal; Valentine Millot
    Abstract: Services employ an ever-increasing share of workers in all OECD countries. This trend is likely to continue as it reflects deep structural forces, such as increasing consumption of services with rising incomes and population ageing and the growing role of intangible assets. Services are very diverse, but overall tend to have weaker productivity levels and growth rates than manufacturing. As a result, the shift to services entails a moderate but persistent drag on productivity growth. Still, there are reasons to hope for a pick-up in service productivity in the future, including thanks to new technologies (e.g. digital platforms, artificial intelligence). This concerns both “knowledge intensive” services (e.g. information and communication) and less knowledge intensive ones (e.g. personal transport). Harnessing this productivity potential requires adjusting policies to foster innovation and efficient use of new technologies, enhance competitive forces by reducing information asymmetries, barriers to entry and switching costs, and increase the tradability of services within countries and across borders.
    Keywords: automation, measurement, online platforms, productivity, services, structural change
    JEL: E24 L80 O40
    Date: 2018–12–21
  18. By: Robles-Rovalo, Arturo; Díaz-Goti, Emiliano; Guarneros-Gutiérrez, Rodrigo
    Abstract: In theory, network profits are independent of the reciprocal termination rates when operators charge nondiscriminatory call prices (Laffont, Rey and Tirole, 1998). Additionally, termination rates can be used to subsidize subscriber acquisition cost. This issue is typically known as a "waterbed effect", where a reduction (increase) in termination rates leads to corresponding increase (reduction) in subscription fees to consumers. We are using a practical case for testing the effects in the final prices for regulatory policy with several changes in mobile termination rates based on an asymmetric price access regulation. In our example, the termination rates have been part of a vertical restriction strategy. The observed network-base price discrimination implemented by the major network (Telcel) resulted in deadweight efficiencies lost and created barriers to new entrance and blocked growth for the small networks OECD (2012). Historically, profits margins and mobile prices comes down whenever regulator have reduced termination rates; following the income effects in subscription (Tangeras, 2014). Having in mind this fact, regulators would diminish termination rates in order to pushdown mobile prices and stimulate competition, rest on a cost-based asymmetric price regulation. The further research allows a statistical assessment of the asymmetric price regulation implemented by the Mexican regulatory authority during January 2013 to June 2017. This paper evaluates if asymmetric regulation brings a better impact in the Mexican consumer welfare, driving the retail prices of mobile services down, also the effectivity of this policy for the next years, taking in to account that there is not significant change in the market share among all mobile networks.
    Keywords: Mexico,Mobile Telecommunications,Termination Rates,Structural Change,Asymmetric Regulation,Convergence,Time Series Analysis
    JEL: L38 L51 L59 L96 O54
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Ofer Malamud; Santiago Cueta; Julian Cristia; Diether W. Beuermann
    Abstract: This paper provides experimental evidence for the impact of home internet access on a broad range of child outcomes in Peru. We compare children who were randomly chosen to receive laptops with high-speed internet access to (i) those who did not receive laptops and (ii) those who only received laptops without internet. We find that providing free internet access led to improved computer and internet proficiency relative to those without laptops and improved internet proficiency compared to those with laptops only. However, there were no significant effects of internet access on math and reading achievement, cognitive skills, self-esteem, teacher perceptions, or school grades when compared to either group. We explore reasons for the absence of impacts on these key outcomes with survey questions, time-diaries, and computer logs.
    Keywords: internet, children, education, skills, experimental, Peru
    JEL: I21
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Begler, A.; Gavrilova, T.
    Abstract: The paper presents work in progress on the artificial intelligence (AI) methods use in knowledge management (KM) systems. Such methods supposed to improve KM, for example, auto-mated knowledge discovery with data mining and natural language processing techniques (Liebowitz, 2001) or to continuously reinterpret meaning of information with the sense-making injection (Malhotra, 2001). Recent papers focus on the studying of different AI technologies implementation for knowledge management, like big data (Sumbal et al., 2017; Pauleen et al., 2017), ontology-based methods (Zhang et al., 2015; Remolona et al., 2017), intelligent agents (Kravchenko & Kureichik, 2014; Chang et al., 2017; Kadhim et al., 2017). However, a lack of systemic understanding of their application is still exists. In the paper we aimed to answer the question: What is the role of different types of artificial intelligence methods in the knowledge management systems dedicated for solving particular tasks? To do this several steps is taken. First, analytical framework for existing cases of AI applications was constructed. The framework consists of for embedded dimension: organizational con-text and environment, KM processes and tools, KM system architecture, AI technology implementa-tion. For every dimension a set of characteristics was considered by which use cases can be analyzed. Second, based on the characteristics an analysis of the published KM systems with the incorporated AI technologies was performed. The analysis followed Tranfield et al. (2013) methodology with a three stages: planning, conducting, and reporting the review. For the planning stage analytical framework were used as well as analysis of the relevant literature. At the conducting stage search be the keywords in Scopus database was performed yielded 174 papers as an initial result, than exclusion criteria was applied to the results resulted in the 83 papers for the further analysis. This is a current stage of the research. After it will be finished, a synthesis of the patterns will be performed to create the model of AI technologies use in the KM systems.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence, knowledge management system, system architecture, knowledge management,
    Date: 2018
  21. Platforms, Promotion, and Product Discovery: Evidence from Spotify Playlists Abstract: Digitization has vastly increased the amount of new music produced and, because of streaming, has raised the number of songs available directly to consumers. While enhanced availability has levelled the playing eld between already-prominent and new artists, creators may now be highly dependent on platform decisions about which songs and artist to promote. With Spotify emerging as dominant major interactive music streaming platform, this paper explores the e ect of Spotify's playlists inclusion decisions on both the promotion of songs and the discovery of music by new artists. We employ four empirical strategies for measuring the impact of playlists on song success. First, we examine songs' streaming volumes before and after their addition to, and removal from, major global playlists. Second, we compare streaming volumes for songs just on, and just o , algorithmic top 50 playlists. Third, we make use of cross-country di erences in inclusion on New Music Friday lists, using song xed e ects, to explain di erences in streaming. Fourth, we develop an instrumental variables approach to explaining cross-country New Music Friday rank di erentials based on home bias. We find large and signi cant e ects: being added to Today's Top Hits, a list with 18.5 million followers during the sample period, raises streams by almost 20 million and is worth between $116,000 and $163,000. Inclusion on New Music Friday lists substantially raises the probability of song success, including for new artists.
    By: Luis Aguiar (European Commission - JRC - IPTS); Joel Waldfogel (University of Minnesota - Carlson School of Management)
    Keywords: Music Streaming, Music Industry, Copyright
    JEL: K42 L82 O34 O38
    Date: 2018–04
  22. By: Diane Coyle; David Nguyen
    Abstract: As the digitalisation of the economy progresses, one of the changes in business models affecting statistics including GDP and trade data is the adoption of cloud computing services in place of fixed investment in computer and communications hardware and the development of own-account software. This rapidly growing phenomenon involves the detachment of the physical location of data and computing processes from their creation, ownership and use, potentially introducing transactions across national borders. In this paper, we construct price indices for cloud services in the UK, showing significant price declines both before and after adjusting for quality in the past few years. We discuss the conceptualisation of a volume measure for cloud services. We discuss the implications of cloud use by businesses for the interpretation of measured business investment, GDP and productivity growth, noting in particular the limitations of measuring total factor productivity through growth accounting, and the importance of double deflation when there are significant changes in the price of intermediate goods such as cloud services. We discuss also the implications for the interpretation of international trade statistics. Finally, we set out the requirements for official statistical surveys to be able to track cloud computing in the future.
    Keywords: Cloud computing, productivity, national accounts
    JEL: E01 L86 D24
    Date: 2018–12
  23. By: Kudryavtsev, D.; Kubelskiy, M.
    Abstract: Today, in the era of digital economy and the need for constant digital business transformation, the relevance of Enterprise Architecture (EA) tools and methods to strategic management tasks increases. According to the latest research, strategic decision-makers face a significant number of problems, which potentially can be successfully resolved with the help of EA This paper is a review of potential application of EA methods and technologies to sup-port strategic management process. The main research method for this paper is an exploratory literature review focused on the evolution, classification and functionality of EA methods with subsequent analysis of relevant problems from the field of strategic management. This result is an intermediate point for the further research which may add considerable value to both researchers and practitioners.
    Keywords: knowledge structuring, strategic management, enterprise architecture management, conceptual modelling,
    Date: 2018
  24. By: Grzybowski, Lukasz; Nicolle, Ambre
    Abstract: In this paper, we use a unique database on switching between mobile handsets in a sample of about 5,000 subscribers using tariffs without commitment from a single mobile operator on monthly basis between March 2012 and December 2014. We estimate discrete choice model in which we account for disutility from switching to a different operating systems and handset brands and for unobserved time-persistent preferences for operating systems and brands. Our estimation results indicate presence of significant state-dependency in the choices of operating systems and brands. We find that it is harder for consumers to switch from iOS to Android and other operating systems than from Android and other operating systems to iOS. Moreover, we find that there is significant time-persistent heterogeneity in preferences for different operating systems and brands, which also leads to state-dependent choices. We use our model to simulate market shares in the absence of switching costs and conclude that the market share of Android and smaller operating systems would increase at the expense of the market share of iOS.
    Keywords: Smartphones,Consumer Inertia,Switching Costs,Mixed Logit,iOS,Android
    JEL: L13 L50 L96
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Stefan Richter; Weining Wang; Wei Biao Wu
    Abstract: We develop a uniform test for detecting and dating explosive behavior of a strictly stationary GARCH$(r,s)$ (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) process. Namely, we test the null hypothesis of a globally stable GARCH process with constant parameters against an alternative where there is an 'abnormal' period with changed parameter values. During this period, the change may lead to an explosive behavior of the volatility process. It is assumed that both the magnitude and the timing of the breaks are unknown. We develop a double supreme test for the existence of a break, and then provide an algorithm to identify the period of change. Our theoretical results hold under mild moment assumptions on the innovations of the GARCH process. Technically, the existing properties for the QMLE in the GARCH model need to be reinvestigated to hold uniformly over all possible periods of change. The key results involve a uniform weak Bahadur representation for the estimated parameters, which leads to weak convergence of the test statistic to the supreme of a Gaussian Process. In simulations we show that the test has good size and power for reasonably large time series lengths. We apply the test to Apple asset returns and Bitcoin returns.
    Date: 2018–12

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