nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2018‒08‒27
twenty-two papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Macroeconomic Effects of Mobile Money in Uganda By Mawejje, Joseph; Lakuma, E. C. Paul
  2. E-Commerce Integration and Economic Development: Evidence from China By Victor Couture; Benjamin Faber; Yizhen Gu
  3. Of Gold and Paper Money By Chadha, J.
  4. Crowdsourced innovation: How community managers affect crowd activities By Hornuf, Lars; Jeworrek, Sabrina
  5. High-Frequency Jump Analysis of the Bitcoin Market By Olivier Scaillet; Adrien Treccani; Christopher Trevisan
  6. The role of Internet of Things in developing smart cities By Tirziu, Andreea-Maria; Vrabie, Catalin
  7. Can agricultural credit scoring for microfinance institutions be implemented and improved by weather data? By Römer, Ulf; Mußhoff, Oliver
  8. Modelling currency demand in a small open economy within a monetary union By António Rua
  9. Do German Works Councils Counter or Foster the Implementation of Digital Technologies? By Genz, Sabrina; Bellmann, Lutz; Matthes, Britta
  10. The Virtual is Reality! On Physical and Virtual Space in Software Firms’ Knowledge Formation By Aslesen, Heidi Wiig; Martin, Roman; Sardo, Stefania
  11. Social Interaction and Technology Adoption: Experimental Evidence from Improved Cookstoves in Mali By Bonan, Jacopo; Battiston, Pietro; Bleck, Jaimie; LeMay-Boucher, Philippe; Pareglio, Stefano; Sarr, Bassirou; Tavoni, Massimo
  12. Central Bank Digital Currency and Monetary Policy By Mohammad Davoodalhosseini
  13. An analysis of high-frequency cryptocurrencies prices dynamics using permutation-information-theory quantifiers By Aurelio F. Bariviera; Luciano Zunino; Osvaldo A. Rosso
  14. Compilation of Experimental Price Indices Using Big Data and Machine Learning:A Comparative Analysis and Validity Verification of Quality Adjustments By Nobuhiro Abe; Kimiaki Shinozaki
  15. Using online job vacancies to understand the UK labour market from the bottom-up By Turrell, Arthur; Thurgood, James; Djumalieva, Jyldyz; Copple, David; Speigner, Bradley
  16. Token Economics in Energy Systems: Concept, Functionality and Applications By Jun Zhang; Fei-Yue Wang; Siyuan Chen
  17. Big Data & Macroeconomic Nowcasting: Methodological Review By George Kapetanios; Fotis Papailias
  18. Employees’ Uses of Social Network Sites: Individualised Private and Professional Dimensions By Karine Roudaut; Nicolas Jullien
  19. The Extensive Margin of Trade and Monetary Policy By Yuko Imura; Malik Shukayev
  20. Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share By David Autor; Anna Salomons
  21. Fortalecimiento institucional y expansión del crédito mediante el uso de TICs en Entidades Financieras Comunales en Bolivia By Boris Branisa; Carlos Gustavo; Mario Arduz
  22. Shadow Banking and the Four Pillars of Traditional Financial Intermediation By Emmanuel Farhi; Jean Tirole

  1. By: Mawejje, Joseph; Lakuma, E. C. Paul
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of mobile money, a rather new innovation in Uganda’s financial sector landscape on aggregate economic activity and other macroeconomic variables. We first estimate the long-run effect of mobile money deposits and value of transactions on monetary aggregates using vector error correction (VEC) techniques. We then estimate the short-term effects of mobile money on selected macroeconomic variables using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) methods. Results show modest macroeconomic impacts: mobile money has moderate positive effects on monetary aggregates, the consumer price index, and private sector credit. Mobile money deposits do respond to changes in monetary policy instruments, signalling possible ameliorating effects for the conduct of monetary policy. These results provide evidence for policy makers to continue supporting the growth of mobile money platforms. In particular, policy makers should provide the policy and regulatory framework through which mobile money balances can become interest-bearing assets, as this will further strengthen the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Demand and Price Analysis, Financial Economics, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2017–06–30
  2. By: Victor Couture (University of California, Berkeley); Benjamin Faber (UC Berkeley); Yizhen Gu (UC Berkeley)
    Abstract: The number of people buying and selling products online in China has grown from practically zero in 2000 to more than 400 million by 2015. Most of this growth has occurred in cities. In this context, the Chinese government recently announced the expansion of e-commerce to the countryside as a policy priority with the objective to close the rural-urban economic divide. As part of this agenda, the government entered a partnership with a large Chinese e-commerce firm. The program invests in the necessary logistics to ship products to and sell products from tens of thousands of villages that were largely unconnected to e-commerce. The firm also installs an e-commerce terminal at a central village location, where a terminal manager assists households in buying and selling products through the firm’s e-commerce platform. This paper combines a new collection of survey and administrative microdata with a randomized control trial (RCT) that we implement across villages in collaboration with the e-commerce firm. We use this empirical setting to provide evidence on the potential of e-commerce integration to foster economic development in the countryside, the underlying channels and the distribution of the gains from e-commerce across households and villages.
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Chadha, J.
    Abstract: We consider the role of money as a means of payment, store of value and medium of exchange. I outline a number of quantitative and qualitative experiences of monetary management. Successful regimes have sprung up in a variety of surprising places, and been sustained with state (centralised) interventions. Although the link between state and money, and its standard of identity and account may be clear, particularly in earlier stages of economic development, the extent to which the state is widely felt to hold responsibility for 'sound money' is less clear in modern democracies, where there are many other public responsibilities implying ongoing trade-offs.
    Keywords: money, gold standard, paper money, Samuelson
    JEL: B22 E02 E31
    Date: 2018–08–02
  4. By: Hornuf, Lars; Jeworrek, Sabrina
    Abstract: In this study, we investigate whether and to what extent community managers in online collaborative communities can stimulate crowd activities through their engagement. Using a novel data set of 22 large online idea crowdsourcing campaigns, we find that active engagement of community managers positively affects crowd activities in an inverted U-shaped manner. Moreover, we evidence that intellectual stimulation by managers increases community participation, while individual consideration of users has no impact on user activities. Finally, the data reveal that community manager activities that require more effort, such as media file uploads instead of simple written comments, have a larger effect on crowd participation.
    Keywords: crowdsourcing,open innovation,crowdsourced innovation,crowdworking,ideation,managerial attention
    JEL: J21 J22 L86 M21 M54 O31
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Olivier Scaillet (University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute); Adrien Treccani (University of Zurich); Christopher Trevisan (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)
    Abstract: We use the database leak of Mt. Gox exchange to analyze the dynamics of the price of bitcoin from June 2011 to November 2013. This gives us a rare opportunity to study an emerging retail-focused, highly speculative and unregulated market with trader identifiers at a tick transaction level. Jumps are frequent events and they cluster in time. The order flow imbalance and the preponderance of aggressive traders, as well as a widening of the bid-ask spread predict them. Jumps have short-term positive impact on market activity and illiquidity and see a persistent change in the price.
    Keywords: Jumps, Liquidity, High-frequency data, Bitcoin
    JEL: C58 G12 G14
    Date: 2017–06
  6. By: Tirziu, Andreea-Maria; Vrabie, Catalin
    Abstract: A main characteristic of smart cities is the use of information and communications technology in all aspects of city life. In this regard, Internet of Things (IoT) is a core element in the process of developing communities “ruled” by an improved communication, better understanding and wait times decrease. This paper aims to present the ways in which IoT networks and services can contribute to develop smart cities, giving as example various cities that have implemented this concept. The methodology used to carry out this research is both bibliographic – opting here to study the work of specialists in the field, authors from Romania and abroad, and empirical – formed by a case study on various smart cities around the world that use IoT. This type of smart cities is starting to transform all public institutions, changing their culture, from one control-based to one performance-centered. IoT is starting to play an important role in smart cities’ evolution and it brings an improvement in the government-citizens relationship. We have identified that although technology is a central element, there should also be considered the capability and willingness of citizens and public institutions to collaborate in order to implement the best solutions for the communities.
    Keywords: Internet of Things; urban development; smart cities
    JEL: Z0
    Date: 2018–05–03
  7. By: Römer, Ulf; Mußhoff, Oliver
    Abstract: In recent years, the application of credit scoring in urban microfinance institutions became popular, while rural microfinance institutions, which mainly lend to agricultural clients, are hesitating to adopt credit scoring. The present study aims to explore whether microfinance credit scoring models are suitable for agricultural clients, and if such models can be improved for agricultural clients by accounting for precipitation.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Farm Management
    Date: 2017
  8. By: António Rua
    Abstract: Currency management is a core business function of a central bank. Understanding the factors driving cash demand and its denomination structure are vital for the smooth functioning of the economy. We pursue an analytical framework which allows to model the demand for each denomination individually as well as to capture the interactions between them, both over the short- and long-run. The approach builds on the DSUR estimator for the long-run relationships coupled with a SUR ECM for modelling the short-run dynamics. The focus is on a small open economy within the euro area monetary union. Such a context adds dimensions which go beyond the traditional drivers considered in the previous literature. In particular, the importance of currency migration through tourism ows is highlighted. Furthermore, the interconnections between demand for different denominations are found to be quite significant and the heterogeneous role of the determinants across denominations is documented.
    JEL: C32 E41 E50
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Genz, Sabrina (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Bellmann, Lutz (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Matthes, Britta (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg)
    Abstract: As works councils' information, consultation and co-determination rights affect the decision process of the management, works councils play a key role in the implementation of digital technologies in establishments. However, previous research focuses on the potential of digital technologies to sub-stitute for labor and its impact on labor market outcomes of workers. This paper adds the role of industrial relations to existing literature by analyzing the impact of works councils on the implementation of digital technologies. Theoretically, the role of works councils in the digital transformation is ambiguous. Using establishment data from the IAB Establishment Survey of 2016 combined with individual employee data from the Federal Employment Agency and occupational level data about the physical job exposure, empirical evidence indicates an ambivalent position of works councils to-wards digital technologies. The sole existence of works councils leads to statistically significant lower equipment levels with digital technologies. However, works councils foster the equipment with digital technologies in those establishments, which employ a high share of workers who are conducting physical demanding job activities. Thus, this study highlights the importance of establishment-level workforce representation for the digital adoption process within Germany.
    Keywords: co-determination, digital technologies, works councils, industrial relations, entropy balancing
    JEL: J50 J53
    Date: 2018–06
  10. By: Aslesen, Heidi Wiig (BI Norwegian Business School); Martin, Roman (Gothenburg University); Sardo, Stefania (BI Norwegian Business School)
    Abstract: To understand how knowledge is created, it is necessary to unwrap the role played by the physical and virtual spaces in knowledge exchange and formation. The extant research offers interesting findings when it comes to the relationships among regional institutional and organizational characteristics, innovation, and firms’ abilities to link up to global knowledge sources. A focus on the role of informal and low-cost mechanisms, both regional and global, has extended our understanding of their role in knowledge formation. However, the physical space has dominated the discussion in the literature on sources of knowledge formation, while the virtual space has seldom been addressed. The inclusion of the virtual space, both as an interaction space and as a different and complementary dimension, makes it possible to gain new insights into knowledge formation in a digitalizing world. Based on in-depth interviews with small and medium-sized software companies in two urban agglomerations in Norway and Sweden, this paper explores the use of physical and virtual spaces. The findings show that these spaces interact and mutually influence each other. The world is not ‘flattening’ due to ongoing digitalization. Rather, urban agglomerations are still important places in which these spaces are optimized and unified.
    Keywords: virtual space; knowledge sources; geographical proximity; software firm; Norway; Sweden
    JEL: L86 O30 O31
    Date: 2018–08–17
  11. By: Bonan, Jacopo; Battiston, Pietro; Bleck, Jaimie; LeMay-Boucher, Philippe; Pareglio, Stefano; Sarr, Bassirou; Tavoni, Massimo
    Abstract: We investigate the role of social interaction in technology adoption by conducting a field experiment in neighborhoods of Bamako. We invited women to attend a training/marketing session, where information on a more efficient cooking stove was provided and the chance to purchase the product at market price was offered. We randomly provided an information nudge on a peer’s willingness to buy an improved cookstove. We find that women purchase and use the product more when they receive information on a peer who purchased (or previously owned) the product, particularly if she is viewed as respected. In general, we find positive direct and spillover effects of attending the session. We also investigate whether social interaction plays a role in technology diffusion. We find that women who participated in the session, but did not buy during the intervention, are more likely to adopt the product when more women living around them own it. We investigate the mechanisms and provide evidence supporting imitation effects, rather than social learning or constraint interaction.
    Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2017–09–25
  12. By: Mohammad Davoodalhosseini
    Abstract: Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CDBC). CDBC has certain potential benefits, including the possibility that it can bear interest. However, using CBDC is costly for agents, perhaps because they lose their anonymity when using CBDC instead of cash. I study optimal monetary policy when only cash, only CBDC, or both cash and CBDC are available to agents. If the cost of using CBDC is not too high, more efficient allocations can be implemented by using CBDC than with cash, and the first best can be achieved. Having both cash and CBDC available may result in lower welfare than in cases where only cash or only CBDC is available. The welfare gains of introducing CBDC are estimated as up to 0.64% for Canada.
    Keywords: Digital currencies, Monetary policy
    JEL: E42 E50
    Date: 2018
  13. By: Aurelio F. Bariviera; Luciano Zunino; Osvaldo A. Rosso
    Abstract: This paper discusses the dynamics of intraday prices of twelve cryptocurrencies during last months' boom and bust. The importance of this study lies on the extended coverage of the cryptoworld, accounting for more than 90\% of the total daily turnover. By using the complexity-entropy causality plane, we could discriminate three different dynamics in the data set. Whereas most of the cryptocurrencies follow a similar pattern, there are two currencies (ETC and ETH) that exhibit a more persistent stochastic dynamics, and two other currencies (DASH and XEM) whose behavior is closer to a random walk. Consequently, similar financial assets, using blockchain technology, are differentiated by market participants.
    Date: 2018–07
  14. By: Nobuhiro Abe (Bank of Japan); Kimiaki Shinozaki (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: This paper compiles experimental price indices for 20 home electrical appliances and digital consumer electronic products using big data obtained from, the largest price comparison website in Japan, and a machine-learning algorithm which pairs legacy and successor products with high precision. In so doing, authors examine the validity of quality adjustment methods by performing comparative analyses on the difference these methods have on price indices. Findings from the analyses are as follows: Indices applied with the Webscraped Prices Comparison Method--the quality adjustment method newly developed and introduced by the Bank of Japan--are more cost-effective than those applied with the Hedonic Regression Method which is known to possess high accuracy in index creation. Indices applied with the Matched-Model Method, which is frequently applied to price indices using big data is unable to precisely reflect price increases intended to ensure the profitability often seen in home electronics at time of product turnover. This indicates the significant downward bias in price indices. These findings once again highlight the importance of selecting the appropriate quality adjustment method when compiling price indices.
    Keywords: price index; quality adjustment method; hedonic approach; support vector machine
    JEL: C43 C45 E31
    Date: 2018–08–20
  15. By: Turrell, Arthur (Bank of England); Thurgood, James (Bank of England); Djumalieva, Jyldyz (Nesta); Copple, David (Bank of England); Speigner, Bradley (Bank of England)
    Abstract: What type of disaggregation should be used to analyse heterogeneous labour markets? How granular should that disaggregation be? Economic theory does not currently tell us; perhaps data can. Analyses typically split labour markets according to top-down classification schema such as sector or occupation. But these may be slow-moving or inaccurate relative to the structure of the labour market as perceived by firms and workers. Using a dataset of 15 million job adverts posted online between 2008 and 2016, we create an empirically driven, ‘bottom-up’ segmentation of the labour market which cuts across wage, sector, and occupation. Our segmentation is based upon applying machine learning techniques to the demand expressed in the text of job descriptions. This segmentation automatically identifies traditional job roles but also surfaces sub-markets not apparent in current classifications. We show that the segmentation has explanatory power for offered wages. The methodology developed could be deployed to create data-driven taxonomies in conditions of rapidly changing labour markets and demonstrates the potential of unsupervised machine learning in economics.
    Keywords: Vacancies; classification; disaggregation
    JEL: J42
    Date: 2018–07–27
  16. By: Jun Zhang; Fei-Yue Wang; Siyuan Chen
    Abstract: Traditional centralized energy systems have the disadvantages of difficult management and insufficient incentives. Blockchain is an emerging technology, which can be utilized in energy systems to enhance their management and control. Integrating token economy and blockchain technology, token economic systems in energy possess the characteristics of strong incentives and low cost, facilitating integrating renewable energy and demand side management, and providing guarantees for improving energy efficiency and reducing emission. This article describes the concept and functionality of token economics, and then analyzes the feasibility of applying token economics in the energy systems, and finally discuss the applications of token economics with an example in integrated energy systems.
    Date: 2018–08
  17. By: George Kapetanios; Fotis Papailias
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with an introduction to big data which can be potentially used in nowcasting the UK GDP and other key macroeconomic variables. We discuss various big data classifications and review some indicative studies in the big data and macroeconomic nowcasting literature. A detailed discussion of big data methodologies is also provided. In particular, we focus on sparse regressions, heuristic optimisation of information criteria, factor methods and textual-data methods.
    Keywords: Big Data, Machine Learning, Sparse Regressions, Factor Models
    JEL: C32 C53
    Date: 2018–07
  18. By: Karine Roudaut (MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, ARENES - Centre de Recherches sur l'Action Politique en Europe - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Rennes - EHESP - École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nicolas Jullien (LUSSI - Département Logique des Usages, Sciences sociales et Sciences de l'Information - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, LEGO - Laboratoire d'Economie et de Gestion de l'Ouest - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire, MARSOUIN - Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la SOciété de l'information et des usages d'INternet - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - UBO - Université de Brest - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de Analyse de l'Information - Rennes - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UBL - Université Bretagne Loire - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique Bretagne-Pays de la Loire)
    Abstract: This article addresses the question of employees' perceived usefulness of social networking sites in their professional activity. The quantitative and qualitative survey conducted in a large French company from the ICT sector, shows a low level professional use of online social sites. We identify two types of users, associated with types of use and types of networks. If the users creates the usage, it is individualized and disaffiliated from the company
    Abstract: Cet article sur les usages des outils de réseau social par les salariés s'inscrit dans une tradition de recherche sur les effets de la technologie sur le travail, sur l'évolution des frontières vie privée et vie professionnelle. Il questionne la façon dont ils gèrent leurs identités (privée, publique, professionnelle, personnelle). Menée dans une grande entreprise française du secteur des TIC, l'enquête - quantitative et qualitative - souligne premièrement, l'existence d'une conscience forte du caractère professionnel et privé de ces outils ; deuxièmement, un usage spécifique des plateformes : une tentative de cloisonnement. Le mélange des usages des outils est à l'image de l'entrelacement des sociabilités dans la vie hors ligne.
    Keywords: social network sites,professional activities,privacy,public/private life,sociology,Usages des TICS,Sociologie,Réseaux sociaux,Activité professionnelle,Vie privée,Vie publique
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Yuko Imura; Malik Shukayev
    Abstract: Many central banks are contemplating whether to issue a central bank digital currency (CDBC). CDBC has certain potential benefits, including the possibility that it can bear interest. However, using CBDC is costly for agents, perhaps because they lose their anonymity when using CBDC instead of cash. I study optimal monetary policy when only cash, only CBDC, or both cash and CBDC are available to agents. If the cost of using CBDC is not too high, more efficient allocations can be implemented by using CBDC than with cash, and the first best can be achieved. Having both cash and CBDC available may result in lower welfare than in cases where only cash or only CBDC is available. The welfare gains of introducing CBDC are estimated as up to 0.64% for Canada.
    Keywords: Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models, Firm dynamics, International topics, Monetary policy
    JEL: F44 E52 F12
    Date: 2018
  20. By: David Autor; Anna Salomons
    Abstract: Many technological innovations replace workers with machines, but this capital-labor substitution need not reduce aggregate labor demand because it simultaneously induces four countervailing responses: own-industry output effects; cross-industry input–output effects; between-industry shifts; and final demand effects. We quantify these channels using four decades of harmonized cross-country and industry data, where we measure automation as industry-level movements in total factor productivity (TFP) that are common across countries. We find that automation displaces employment and reduces labor's share of value-added in the industries in which it originates (a direct effect). In the case of employment, these own-industry losses are reversed by indirect gains in customer industries and induced increases in aggregate demand. By contrast, own-industry labor share losses are not recouped elsewhere. Our framework can account for a substantial fraction of the reallocation of employment across industries and the aggregate fall in the labor share over the last three decades. It does not, however, explain why the labor share fell more rapidly during the 2000s
    JEL: D33 J23 O33 O57
    Date: 2018–07
  21. By: Boris Branisa (Institute for Advanced Development Studies); Carlos Gustavo (Institute for Advanced Development Studies); Mario Arduz (Institute for Advanced Development Studies)
    Abstract: Este documento analiza la implementación de un sistema financiero (software) para las Entidades Financieras Comunales (EFC) que se realizó entre los años 2011 y 2012, el cual fue un conjunto de módulos financieros que facilitaban la administración de información y prácticas operativas en cada una de estas entidades. La utilización del sistema pretendía mejorar su institucionalidad, además de expandir sus créditos e incrementar los ingresos de sus prestatarios. Empleando métodos cualitativos (entrevistas) y datos cuantitativos (Data Mart), se pudo concluir que el sistema tuvo beneficios dentro del manejo operativo de las instituciones financieras, pero no se pudo demostrar un impacto evidente en el incremento de los créditos y tampoco sobre los ingresos de los prestatarios.
    Keywords: Cambio tecnológico, instituciones microfinancieras, organización
    JEL: O23 G21 D20
    Date: 2018–03
  22. By: Emmanuel Farhi; Jean Tirole
    Abstract: Traditional banking is built on four pillars: SME lending, access to public liquidity, deposit insurance, and prudential supervision. This paper unveils the logic of the quadrilogy by putting core services to “special depositors and borrowers” at the heart of the analysis, and makes room for bank and depositor implicit and explicit guarantees. It analyzes how prudential regulation must adjust to the emergence of shadow banking. The model also rationalizes ring fencing between regulated and shadow banking and the sharing of liquidity in centralized platforms to counter syphoning and financial contagion.
    Date: 2018

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