nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2018‒03‒19
twenty papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. ATM time series, 1967-2017 By Bátiz-Lazo, Bernardo
  2. Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data By Diego Bodas; Juan Ramon Garcia; Juan Murillo; Matias Pacce; Tomasa Rodrigo; Juan de Dios Romero; Pep Ruiz; Camilo Ulloa; Heribert Valero
  3. Persistence in the Cryptocurrency Market By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Alex Plastun
  4. Bitcoin technical trading with artificial neural network By Masafumi Nakano; Akihiko Takahashi; Soichiro Takahashi
  5. The Competition Between Cash and Mobile Payments in Markets with Mobile Partnerships A Monetary Search Model Point of View By Françoise Vasselin
  6. Money and trust: lessons from the 1620s for money in the digital age By Isabel Schnabel; Hyun Song Shin
  7. Blockchain: Data Malls, Coin Economies and Keyless Payments By Zura Kakushadze; Ronald P. Russo Jr
  8. The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Calibration for Single-Location Retailers By Heng Chen; Rallye Shen
  9. Monetary Policy and Models of Currency Demand By Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
  10. The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Sampling By Angelika Welte
  11. ICT Adoption in Micro and Small Firms: Can Internet Access Improve Labour Productivity? By Mariana Viollaz
  12. Les ICO la nouvelle façon de lever des fonds sans contrainte ? By Dominique Guegan
  13. Profundización del sistema financiero: la adopción de pagos electrónicos By Cristian David Franco Hernández
  14. Steuart, Smith, and the ‘system of commerce’: international trade and monetary theory in late-18th century british political economy By Maurício C. Coutinho; Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak
  15. A Digitalização do Mercado de Capitais no Brasil: tendências recentes By Edemilson Paraná
  16. Labor market opportunities for women in the digital age By Krieger-Boden, Christiane; Sorgner, Alina
  17. Evidence of Decreasing Internet Entropy: The Lack of Redundancy in DNS Resolution by Major Websites and Services By Samantha Bates; John Bowers; Shane Greenstein; Jordi Weinstock; Jonathan Zittrain
  18. The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods: Estimation of the Total Private Cost for Large Businesses By Valéry Dongmo Jiongo
  19. The Welfare Effects of Peer Entry in the Accommodation Market: The Case of Airbnb By Chiara Farronato; Andrey Fradkin
  20. Avaliação do Impacto Econômico Setorial da Banda Larga By Alexandre Ywata de Carvalho; Mário Jorge Mendonça; Marcus Gerardus Lavagnole; Luis Alberto Medrano

  1. By: Bátiz-Lazo, Bernardo
    Abstract: This short note is a description of the dataset compiled during the drafting of Cash and Dash: How ATMs and Computers Changed Banking (Oxford University Press, 2018). The full dataset is deposited with the European Association for Banking and Financial History, and is available for download from the association's website.
    Keywords: banking and technology,datasets
    JEL: G21 N20 N22 N24
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Diego Bodas; Juan Ramon Garcia; Juan Murillo; Matias Pacce; Tomasa Rodrigo; Juan de Dios Romero; Pep Ruiz; Camilo Ulloa; Heribert Valero
    Abstract: In this paper we present a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain, using Big Data sources and techniques. The data are the footprints of BBVA clients from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale (PoS) terminals.
    Keywords: Working Paper , Economic Analysis , Spain
    JEL: C32 C81 E21
    Date: 2018–03
  3. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Alex Plastun
    Abstract: This paper examines persistence in the cryptocurrency market. Two different long-memory methods (R/S analysis and fractional integration) are used to analyse it in the case of the four main cryptocurrencies (BitCoin, LiteCoin, Ripple, Dash) over the sample period 2013-2017. The findings indicate that this market exhibits persistence (there is a positive correlation between its past and future values), and that its degree changes over time. Such predictability represents evidence of market inefficiency: trend trading strategies can be used to generate abnormal profits in the cryptocurrency market.
    Keywords: crypto currency, BitCoin, persistence, long memory, R/S analysis, fractional integration
    JEL: C22 G12
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Masafumi Nakano (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo); Akihiko Takahashi (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo); Soichiro Takahashi (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper explores Bitcoin trading based on artificial neural networks for the return prediction. In particular, our deep learning method successfully discovers trading signals through a seven layered neural network structure for given input data of technical indicators, which are calculated by the past time-series of Bitcoin returns over every 15 minutes. Under feasible settings of execution costs, the numerical experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly improves the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy. Especially, our model performs well for a challenging period from December 2017 to January 2018, during which Bitcoin suffers from substantial minus returns.
  5. By: Françoise Vasselin (MATISSE - Modélisation Appliquée, Trajectoires Institutionnelles et Stratégies Socio-Économiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: A payment platform provides mobile money (M-money) to buyers who can also use cash to transact. An exogenous fraction of " traditional sellers " only accepts cash and creates no partnership with buyers while the remainder fraction consists of " mobile sellers " who accept M-money only and create partnerships with buyers to reduce search frictions. So, buyers without a partner must use cash and buyers with a partner must use M-money to trade. Buyers without a partner may hold cash, M-money, both monies or none while buyers with a partner always choose to hold M-money only or both monies. Hence, we obtain different equilibria where M-money always circulates, alone or in addition to cash. So, the partnership is a valuable coordination mechanism that makes M-money circulation permanent. Our model can explain why it may be useful to implement prescribed usages to trigger the adoption of a new payment instrument that aims to replace cash and why retailers implement partnerships through loyalty programs before the launching of their own M-money application. However, cash disappears only if traditional sellers have almost all disappeared.
    Keywords: cash,mobile payments,search theory,partnerships,investment cost,mobile money
    Date: 2018–03–03
  6. By: Isabel Schnabel; Hyun Song Shin
    Abstract: Money is a social convention where one party accepts it as payment in the expectation that others will do so too. Over the ages, various forms of private money have come and gone, giving way to central bank money. The reasons for the resilience of central bank money are of particular interest given current debates about cryptocurrencies and how far they will supplant central bank money. We draw lessons from the role of public deposit banks in the 1600s, which quelled the hyper-in‡flation in Europe during the Thirty Years War (1618-1648). As the precursors of modern central banks, public deposit banks established trust in monetary exchange by making the value of money common knowledge.
    Keywords: Gresham's Law; debasement; common knowledge; central banks
    JEL: E42 E58 N13
    Date: 2018–02
  7. By: Zura Kakushadze; Ronald P. Russo Jr
    Abstract: We discuss several uses of blockchain (and, more generally, distributed ledger) technologies outside of cryptocurrencies with a pragmatic view. We mostly focus on three areas: the role of coin economies for what we refer to as data malls (specialized data marketplaces); data provenance (a historical record of data and its origins); and what we term keyless payments (made without having to know other users' cryptographic keys). We also discuss voting and other areas, and give a sizable list of academic and nonacademic references.
    Date: 2018–02
  8. By: Heng Chen; Rallye Shen
    Abstract: Calibrated weights are created to (a) reduce the nonresponse bias; (b) reduce the coverage error; and (c) make the weighted estimates from the sample consistent with the target population in terms of certain key variables. This technical report details our calibration analysis of singlelocation retailers for the Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods. We first compare two types of calibration approaches, consisting of (1) traditional calibration, in which calibration is implemented after explicit nonresponse modelling, and (2) nonresponse-embedded calibration, where the nonresponse correction is automatically built in (Särndal and Lundström, 2005). After carefully selecting auxiliary variables, we find minor differences between these two methods. We also examine the effects of trimming, sample size, smoothing and influential units on the calibrated weights, and show that our calibration is robust in view of these considerations.
    Keywords: E-Money, Econometric and statistical methods
    JEL: C81 C83
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Mariam El Hamiani Khatat
    Abstract: Two types of currency in circulation models are identified: (1) a first generation derived from the theory of money demand and (2) a second generation aimed at producing daily forecasts of currency in circulation. In this paper, we transform the currency demand function into a VAR to capture the dynamic link between interest rates and the demand for cash. We also apply ARIMA modeling to forecast the daily currency in circulation for Brazil, Kazakhstan, Morocco, New Zealand, and Sudan. Our empirical work shows that some of the conclusions in the economic literature on the impact of interest rates on the demand for currency do not necessarily hold, and that central banks would benefit from running both generations of currency in circulation models. The fundamental longer-run determinants of the demand for cash are distinct from its short-run determinants.
    Date: 2018–02–16
  10. By: Angelika Welte
    Abstract: In 2015, the Bank of Canada undertook the large-scale Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods. This paper describes and discusses the sampling methodology used in this survey, with a focus on the challenges of voluntary business surveys. Recommendations for sampling strategies in future retailer surveys are offered.
    Keywords: Central bank research, Econometric and statistical methods
    JEL: C C8 C81 C83
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Mariana Viollaz (CEDLAS-FCE-UNLP)
    Abstract: The rapid spread of information and communication technologies may increase firms’ productivity with important consequences for job creation and for economic growth. This article contributes to this discussion by analysing the impact of internet adoption on labour productivity and the mechanisms shaping this relationship in Peruvian micro and small manufacturing firms over the period 2011-2013. The article estimates a reduced form where labour productivity is a function of internet adoption and other explanatory factors. Internet adoption is instrumented using a measure of the availability of financial opportunities for micro and small firms in Peru. Findings indicate that internet adoption: (i) increases firms’ labour productivity; (ii) reallocates employment away from temporary administrative workers and non-remunerated workers and expands employment of permanent production workers; (iii) leads to the formalization of labour relationships, to the implementation of new organizational practices, and to the improvement of training measures. While changes in employment and formalization of workers are linked to labour productivity gains, increases in training measures and organizational changes do not generate any additional productivity increase.
    Date: 2018–03
  12. By: Dominique Guegan (UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, Labex ReFi - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy], CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: Les ICO donnent l'opportunité aux personnes possédant des cryto-monnaies d'investir ces montants. Ces opérations se sont multipliées au cours des deux dernières années, mais elles présentent des risques importants tant pour les souscripteurs que les émetteurs. Il est urgent de leur fixer un cadre réglementaire approprié.
    Keywords: Blockchain,Cryptographie,Régulation,ICO
    Date: 2018–01
  13. By: Cristian David Franco Hernández
    Abstract: La innovación tecnológica ha permitido que se dé una sustitución en la manera como se realizan los pagos. En antaño, el único medio existente para poder realizar transacciones se limitaba al efectivo, sin embargo, con la aparición de las tarjetas débito y crédito, los costes asociados a portar dinero disminuyen o desaparecen virtualmente, además, de que funcionan como un instrumento que vincula al individuo al sistema financiero. De esta manera, el uso y tenencia de elementos como las tarjetas de débito o crédito no solo constituyen una mejora transaccional, sino que también es un indicador de la profundización financiera. En este trabajo se propone el uso de la base de datos FINDEX para estimar la probabilidad de uso de las tarjetas de débito, sin embargo, debido a los problemas que supone la aleatoriedad de la muestra, se emplea la corrección de Heckman. Como resultado, se obtuvo que el uso de las tarjetas de débito está afectado por la existencia de una red de ATM, así como por la población, lo cual indica un efecto de red.
    Keywords: Findex, inclusión financiera, corrección de Heckman, adopción financiera
    JEL: D14 G21 G28
    Date: 2018–03–08
  14. By: Maurício C. Coutinho (Universidade de Campinas); Carlos Eduardo Suprinyak (Cedeplar/UFMG)
    Abstract: Though contemporaries, Adam Smith and Sir James Steuart are commonly portrayed as men belonging to different eras. Whereas Smith went down in history both as founder of Classical Political Economy and patron of economic liberalism, Steuart became known as the last, outdated advocate of mercantilist policies in Britain. Smith himself was responsible for popularizing the notion of the ‘system of commerce’ as an approach to political economy that dominated British thought during the early modern period. As it evolved into a historiographical concept, the mercantile system came to be seen as an international trade theory grounded upon the fallacious doctrine of the favorable balance of trade. In the Wealth of Nations, however, Smith puts limited emphasis on international trade as a theoretical concern. His analysis of the subject, moreover, was marred by lack of analytical clarity, which caused him to be chastised by some among his followers who adhered more enthusiastically to the free trade cause. Given Smith’s doubtful credentials as a free trade theorist, in this paper we try to analyze the reasons that led him and Steuart to be historically placed on opposite sides of the mercantilist divide. To do so, we analyze the works of both authors in depth, showing that their disagreements in matters of economic policy have chiefly to do with different views about the role of money in the economy. Additionally, we explore how early-19th century writers helped forge the intellectual profiles of both Steuart and Smith.
    Keywords: Free trade, money, mercantilism, Adam Smith, James Steuart
    JEL: B11 B12 E40 F10
    Date: 2018–02
  15. By: Edemilson Paraná
    Abstract: Na esteira dos debates sobre a finança digitalizada, e atualizando alguns de seus principais achados em face dos prognósticos da chamada quarta revolução industrial, este trabalho oferece um panorama dos desenvolvimentos recentes, bem como das principais tendências do processo de digitalização do mercado de capitais brasileiro nas últimas décadas. Com isso, objetiva lançar luz sobre um fenômeno emergente no setor, apresentando dados e informações que contribuam para reflexões sobre os desdobramentos e as consequências de tais processos para a economia brasileira, inserida no quadro dos mercados financeiros interconectados globalmente. In the wake of the debates on Digitalized Finance, and updating some of its main findings regarding the prognoses of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, this paper presents an overview of recent developments, as well as the main tendencies of the process of digitalization of the Brazilian capital markets in the last decades. With this, it aims to shed light on an emerging phenomenon in the sector, presenting data and information that contribute to reflections on the consequences of such process for the Brazilian economy, within the framework of globally interconnected financial markets.
    Date: 2018–02
  16. By: Krieger-Boden, Christiane; Sorgner, Alina
    Abstract: Digitalization offers a variety of opportunities for female empowerment and for a more equal female participation in labor markets, financial markets, and entrepreneurship. Currently, digitalization seems to favor female labor force, since women face on average lower risk of being replaced by machines, as compared to men. Women's often superior social skills represent a comparative advantage in the digital age, and this is particularly so when social skills are complemented with higher education and advanced digital literacy. However, the same barriers and deficits that obstruct women's current advancement in many countries may deprive them from many beneficial opportunities in the digital age, including new entrepreneurial opportunities. Major efforts by policy makers are required to invalidate these barriers. New digital technologies should be used more decisively to achieve the goal of gender equality.
    Keywords: digitalization,gender equality,labor markets,entrepreneurship,financial inclusion
    JEL: O3 J7
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Samantha Bates; John Bowers; Shane Greenstein; Jordi Weinstock; Jonathan Zittrain
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the extent to which the Internet’s global domain name resolution (DNS) system has preserved its distributed resilience given the rise of cloud-based hosting and infrastructure. We explore trends in the concentration of the DNS space since at least 2011. In addition, we examine changes in domains’ tendency to “diversify” their pool of nameservers – how frequently domains employ DNS management services from multiple providers rather than just one provider – a comparatively costless and therefore puzzlingly rare decision that could supply redundancy and resilience in the event of an attack or service outage affecting one provider.
    JEL: L2 L22 L86
    Date: 2018–02
  18. By: Valéry Dongmo Jiongo
    Abstract: The Bank of Canada 2015 Retailer Survey on the Cost of Payment Methods faced low response rates and outliers in sample data for two of its retailer strata: chains and large independent businesses. This technical report investigates whether it is appropriate to combine these two strata to produce more accurate estimates of the total private cost to large businesses of the main payment methods. It uses two approaches to compute the total cost. First, a sample-based approach assumes consistency of some sample ratios and calibrates the sample to the known population totals of auxiliary variables. Second, a model-based approach uses outlier-robust estimation methods. The results show that, unlike for payments by cash and debit cards, there is relatively little difference between the approaches in determining the cost of payment by credit card. The model-based approach is recommended because it does not allocate the retailer’s total costs in advance between fixed and variable costs, and it uses outlier-robust estimation methods.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods
    JEL: C12 C83
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Chiara Farronato; Andrey Fradkin
    Abstract: We study the effects of enabling peer supply through Airbnb in the accommodation industry. We present a model of competition between flexible and dedicated sellers - peer hosts and hotels - who provide differentiated products. We estimate this model using data from major US cities and quantify the welfare effects of Airbnb on travelers, hosts, and hotels. The welfare gains from Airbnb are concentrated in locations (New York) and times (New Year’s Eve) when hotels are capacity constrained. This occurs because peer hosts are responsive to market conditions, expand supply as hotels fill up, and keep hotel prices down as a result.
    JEL: D4 D6 L1 L22 L23 L85 L86
    Date: 2018–02
  20. By: Alexandre Ywata de Carvalho; Mário Jorge Mendonça; Marcus Gerardus Lavagnole; Luis Alberto Medrano
    Abstract: Embora exista concordância de que o efeito da expansão da banda larga sobre a economia, visto de um prisma agregado, seja positivo, não é voz unânime que esse impacto seja positivo sobre todos os setores. Por meio da aplicação de um modelo multivariado de dados em painel two way estimado por metodologia bayesiana, este estudo objetiva determinar o efeito da expansão da banda larga sobre os setores da economia. Com o propósito de contemplar as diferenças regionais, foi aplicada a análise de agrupamento (clusterização), visando isolar os grupos de municípios com características aproximadas. Os resultados ilustram o fato de que o impacto da banda larga não é positivo para todos os setores, sendo positivo nos setores mais dinâmicos e mais intensivos em tecnologia, como é o caso dos setores industrial e de serviços, e negativo onde isso não acontece, como na agricultura. Although there is agreement that the effect of broadband expansion on the economy, from an general overview, is positive; not an unanimous voice arguments that this impact be positive on all sectors. By applying a multivariate two way panel data model and estimated by bayesian methodology, this study aims to determine the effect of broadband expansion on the sectors of the economy. In order to take into account the geographical, social and economic differences among municipalities cluster analysis was employed in order to isolate groups of municipalities with approximate characteristics. The results illustrate that the impact of broadband is not positive for all sectors, being positive in the most dynamic and technology-intensive sectors such as the industrial and service sectors; and negative where this does not happen as in agricultural sector.
    Date: 2018–02

This nep-pay issue is ©2018 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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