nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2017‒10‒08
eight papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Using debit card payments data for nowcasting Dutch household consumption By Roy Verbaan; Wilko Bolt; Carin van der Cruijsen
  2. Variance estimation for survey-weighted data using bootstrap resampling methods: 2013 methods-of-payment By Heng Chen; Q. Rallye Shen
  3. Cellfare: Delivering Self-Targeted Welfare Using Mobile Phones By Erlend Berg; D Rajasekhar; R Manjula
  4. Venture capitalists at work: what are the effects on the firms they finance? By Raffaello Bronzini; Giampaolo Caramellino; Silvia Magri
  5. "The Assessment of Client Creditworthiness Using Predictive Methods Based on Multivariate Discriminant Analysis" By Anna Siekelova
  6. Financial Supply Chain Management: Erfolgsfaktoren der Gestaltung von Finanznetzwerken By Yahsi, Burak
  7. The real effects of relationship lending By Ryan Niladri Banerjee; Leonardo Gambacorta; Enrico Sette
  8. Estimación de los efectos de la Ley de Inclusión Financiera en un marco Dinámico Estocástico de Equilibrio General By Serafín Frache; Juan Odriozola

  1. By: Roy Verbaan; Wilko Bolt; Carin van der Cruijsen
    Abstract: In this paper we analyse whether the use of debit card payments data improves the accuracy of one-quarter ahead forecasts and nowcasts (current-quarter forecasts) of Dutch private household consumption. Since debit card payments data are timely available, they may be a valuable indicator of economic activity. We study a variety of models with payments data and find that a combination of models provides the most accurate nowcast. The best combined model reduces the root mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) by 18% relative to the macroeconomic policy model (DELFI) that is used by the Dutch central bank (DNB). Based on these results for the Netherlands, we conclude that debit card payments data are useful in modelling household consumption.
    Keywords: Nowcasting; debit card payments; household consumption; Midas
    JEL: C53 E27
    Date: 2017–09
  2. By: Heng Chen (Bank of Canada); Q. Rallye Shen (Bank of Canada)
    Abstract: Sampling units for the 2013 Methods-of-Payment survey were selected through an approximate stratified random sampling design. To compensate for nonresponse and noncoverage, the observations are weighted through a raking procedure. The variance estimation of weighted estimates must take into account both the sampling design and the raking procedure. I propose using bootstrap resampling methods to estimate the variance. I find that the variance is smaller when estimated through the bootstrap resampling method from Stata's ipfraking than through Stata's linearization method, where the latter does not take into account the correlation between the variables used for weighting and the outcome variable of interest.
    Date: 2017–09–20
  3. By: Erlend Berg; D Rajasekhar; R Manjula
    Abstract: This paper proposes a new form of social welfare: beneficiaries carry out a series of small tasks on their mobile phones, each linked to a small payment. Key advantages over traditional public works, or workfare, are large potential reductions in leakage as well in administrative costs and delays. A basic implementation of the scheme was tested in the field, and participants with experience from a large Indian public-works programme favourably compared the proposed scheme to the existing one. There are potential challenges related to automation.
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Raffaello Bronzini (Bank of Italy); Giampaolo Caramellino (London School of Economics); Silvia Magri (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: Italian startups financed by venture capitalists (VCs) experience a faster growth in size and become more innovative compared with other startups. VC-backed firms also show a much larger increase in equity and a reduction in their leverage. This evidence is obtained by comparing a representative sample of firms financed by private VCs in the period 2004-2014 with a sample of firms rejected by VC at the very last stage of the screening process or in the due diligence phase. These firms narrowly lost the contest and before VC financing have very similar observable and unobservable characteristics to the VC-backed firms; self-selection is specifically taken into account. The effects on firms' size and innovation are not exclusively explained by equity financing. The results hold when we restrict the comparison to firms in the control group that also increase their equity from investors other than VCs: this suggests that VC effects can also be linked to their managerial expertise and network connection. Finally, the results are exclusively driven by independent VC investors compared with captive VCs.
    Keywords: venture capital, innovation, firm financial structure, differences-in-differences
    JEL: G21 G24 G32 O30
    Date: 2017–09
  5. By: Anna Siekelova ("Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, Slovak Republic" Author-2-Name: Erika Spuchlakova Author-2-Workplace-Name: "Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, Slovak Republic")
    Abstract: "Objective – Trade credit is the most important source of external finance for many companies. It appears on every balance sheet and represents more than 50 percent of company’s short-term liabilities and a third of all company’s total liabilities in OECD countries. Late payment of invoices may suffer firm’s solvency. The European economies are now putting the years of financial turmoil and debt crisis behind them and several macro-economic indicators are pointing towards a brighter future. The aim of this paper is to assess creditworthiness of companies. Methodology/Technique – Assessment of client creditworthiness carried out using predictive methods based on multivariate discriminant analysis Findings – The situation in the enterprise can be characterized as stable. An enterprise that chooses this client to provide it a trade credit should also consider supplementing the predictive models by complex financial and economic analysis and review of available. If the firm provides trade credit to more clients, it is necessary to consider that the terms of trade credits may not be the same for everyone but also it is not in the power of company to approach to each client individually. Novelty – The study suggests that client groups can be created by using cluster analysis. Thus, the company may increase efficiency in the provision of trade credit."
    Keywords: "Trade Credit; Trade Credit Receivables; Late Payment; Predictive Model; Z Score; IN 01; Taffler Model; G Index; SAF 2002."
    JEL: E51 G21 G33
    Date: 2017–03–14
  6. By: Yahsi, Burak
    Abstract: Unter dem Schlagwort „Financial Supply Chain Management“ (FSCM) werden Einsatzmöglichkeiten von Instrumenten und Technologien zur effizienten Steuerung des finanziellen Werteflusses in Lieferketten untersucht. Die vorliegende Dissertation nimmt dabei eine organisationstheoretische Perspektive ein und gibt Handlungsempfehlungen für die erfolgreiche Gestaltung von sog. Finanznetzwerken. Theoretischer Bezugsrahmen Zunächst wird die Konfigurationstheorie herangezogen um zu diskutieren, wie der Erfolg von Unternehmensnetzwerken im Allgemeinen erfasst und begründet werden kann. Hierzu werden die Struktur- und Umweltvariablen von Unternehmensnetzwerken operationalisiert. Darauf basierend wird das Konzept von Finanznetzwerken näher erläutert. Es wird auf die genutzten FSCM-Instrumente (z. B. Payables-Financing, Dynamic-Discounting, etc.) sowie auf die FSCM-Technologien (z. B. Cloud, Blockchain) eingegangen. Außerdem werden Erfolgsvariablen für Finanznetzwerke theoretisch hergeleitet: die finanzwirtschaftliche Ressourcen- und Koordinationseffizienz. Diese gilt es für alle Parteien in der Supply Chain gleichzeitig zu erhöhen. Der theoretische Teil der Arbeit schließt mit einem konfigurationstheoretischen Erfolgsbewertungsmodell von Finanznetzwerken. Empirische Studie Nach einer detaillierten Diskussion der Forschungsmethodik erfolgt eine Vorstudie zur Ermittlung des theoretisch möglichen und in der Praxis noch nicht erschlossenen Effizienzraums. Hierzu wird eine umfangreiche Studie durchgeführt und die Cash-to-Cash-Kennzahlen von Unternehmen aus vier unterschiedlichen Branchen werden ermittelt. Darauf folgt die Kernstudie, die aus einer „Within-Case-Analyse“ (WCA) und einer „Cross-Case-Analyse“ (CCA) besteht. Innerhalb der WCA werden 11 Falleinheiten im Rahmen einer multiplen Fallstudie untersucht. Dabei wird für jede Falleinheit eine gesamte Finanztransaktion im Finanznetzwerk erläutert und deren Struktur- und Umweltvariablen erhoben. Die CCA nutzt diese Ergebnisse um fallübergreifend gültige Erfolgsfaktoren der Gestaltung von Finanznetzwerken zu identifizieren. Auf diesen Erfolgsfaktoren basierend schließt die Untersuchung mit dem Vorschlag für ein effizienzmaximierendes Modell zur Gestaltung eines Finanznetzwerks ab. Die in dieser Arbeit erarbeiteten Handlungsempfehlungen richten sich an Netzwerkmanager aus der Praxis. Derzeit gehören zu diesen insbesondere Banken und Logistikdienstleister, die für das Anbieten der FSCM-Dienstleistung Netzwerke aufbauen und gestalten. Auch „Fintech“-Unternehmen sind als Netzwerkmanager in dieser Branche aktiv. Die Erfolgsfaktoren sind bei der Gestaltung von Finanznetzwerken einzubeziehen, um den Konkurrenzkampf gegenüber anderen Netzwerken zu bestehen.
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Ryan Niladri Banerjee; Leonardo Gambacorta; Enrico Sette
    Abstract: This paper studies the real consequences of relationship lending on firm activity in Italy following Lehman Brothers' default shock and Europe's sovereign debt crisis. We use a large data set that merges the comprehensive Italian Credit and Firm Registers. We find that following Lehman's default, banks offered more favourable continuation lending terms to firms with which they had stronger relationships. Such favourable conditions enabled firms to maintain higher levels of investment and employment. The insulation effects of tighter bank-firm relationships was still present during the European sovereign debt crisis, especially for firms tied to well capitalised banks.
    Keywords: relationship banking, real effects of credit, credit supply
    JEL: E44 G21
    Date: 2017–09
  8. By: Serafín Frache (Banco Central del Uruguay); Juan Odriozola
    Abstract: El objetivo de este trabajo es estimar los efectos de la obligatoriedad de cobro de sueldos, honorarios, pasividades y beneficios sociales en cuentas bancarias, analizándolo desde un marco dinámico estocástico de equilibrio general. La promoción de medios de pago electrónicos y la obligatoriedad del cobro en cuenta afecta la preferencia de los agentes entre dinero en efectivo y depósitos vista. A partir de un modelo DSGE se estiman los cambios en el equilibrio general de la economía, derivados del cambio en las preferencias y de un crecimiento del sistema financiero. Los resultados muestran que en el nuevo equilibrio determinado luego de la aplicación de la Ley de Inclusión Financiera, se observa un crecimiento en el sector financiero, una caída en el diferencial de tasas activas y pasivas y un aumento en el producto y la inversión, aunque también se observa una caída en los salarios que deriva en una caída en el consumo. Sin embargo estas variaciones son de una pequeña magnitud, especialmente las relativas al sector real. Finalmente se observa que la respuesta de la economía frente a distintos shocks, no se altera significativamente una vez implementada totalmente la Ley.
    Date: 2016

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