nep-pay New Economics Papers
on Payment Systems and Financial Technology
Issue of 2016‒06‒14
fourteen papers chosen by
Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo
Bangor University

  1. Cash management and payment choices: a simulation model with international comparisons By Arango, Carlos; Bouhdaoui, Yassine; Bounie, David; Eschelbach, Martina; Hernandez, Lola
  2. Liberation Technology: Mobile Phones and Political Mobilization in Africa By Marco Manacorda; Andrea Tesei
  3. Moore's Law vs. Murphy's Law in the financial system: who's winning? By Andrew W Lo
  4. Will digital technologies transform agriculture in developing countries ? By Deichmann,Uwe; Goyal,Aparajita; Mishra,Deepak K.
  5. The Mobile Phone in the Diffusion of Knowledge for Institutional Quality in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice Asongu; Jacinta C. Nwachukwu
  6. Chinese Rural Consumers’ Online Shopping By Zhong, Hua; Qing, Ping; Hu, Wuyang
  7. Geo-blocking in Cross-border e-Commerce in the EU Digital Single Market By Melisande Cardona
  8. Social Media Impact on Consumers in Developed and Developing Countries: The Case of US and Kuwait By Dhoha AlSaleh
  9. Demand Forecasting and Activity-based Mobility Modeling from Cell Phone Data By Pozdnukhov, Alexey
  10. A note on money creation in emerging market economies By Ponomarenko, Alexey
  11. Fintech: the power of the possible and potential pitfalls. Speech at the LendIt USA 2016 conference, San Francisco, California, April 12, 2016. By Williams, John C.
  12. Skills for a Digital World: 2016 Ministerial Meeting on the Digital Economy Background Report By OECD
  13. What Happened to the Revolving Credit Card Balances of 2009? By Santucci, Lawrence
  14. CRIX or evaluating blockchain based currencies By Simon Trimborn; Wolfgang Karl Härdle;

  1. By: Arango, Carlos; Bouhdaoui, Yassine; Bounie, David; Eschelbach, Martina; Hernandez, Lola
    Abstract: Despite various payment innovations, today, cash is still heavily used to pay for low-value purchases. This paper proposes a simulation model based on two optimal cash management and payment policies in the payments economics literature to explain cash usage. First, cash is preferred to other payment instruments whenever consumers have enough balances at hand. Second, it is optimal for consumers to hold a stock of cash for precautionary reasons. Exploiting survey payment diaries from Canada, France, Germany and the Netherlands, the results of the simulations show that both optimal policies are well suited to understand the high shares of low-value cash payments in Canada, France and Germany. Yet, they do not perform as well in the case of the Netherlands, overestimating the share of low-value cash payments. We discuss how the differences in payment markets across countries may explain the limitations of the two optimal policies.
    Keywords: cash management, payment choices, international comparison
    JEL: C61 E41 E47
    Date: 2015–11–25
  2. By: Marco Manacorda (Queen Mary University of London, CEP (LSE), CEPR & IZA); Andrea Tesei (Queen Mary University of London and CEP (LSE))
    Abstract: Can digital information and communication technology (ICT) foster mass political mobilization? We use a novel geo-referenced dataset for the entire African continent between 1998 and 2012 on the coverage of mobile phone signal together with geo-referenced data from multiple sources on the occurrence of protests and on individual participation in protests to bring this argument to empirical scrutiny. We find that mobile phones are instrumental to mass mobilization during economic downturns, when reasons for grievance emerge and the cost of participation falls. Estimated effects are if anything larger once we use an instrumental variable approach that relies on differential trends in coverage across areas with different incidence of lightning strikes. The results are in line with insights from a network model with imperfect information and strategic complementarities in protest provision. Mobile phones make individuals more responsive to both changes in economic conditions - a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced information - and to their neighbors’ participation - a mechanism that we ascribe to enhanced coordination. Empirically both effects are at play, highlighting the channels through which digital ICT can alleviate the collective action problem.
    Keywords: mobile phones, collective action, Africa, geo-referenced data
    JEL: D70 O55 L96
    Date: 2016–04
  3. By: Andrew W Lo
    Abstract: Breakthroughs in computing hardware, software, telecommunications and data analytics have transformed the financial industry, enabling a host of new products and services such as automated trading algorithms, crypto-currencies, mobile banking, crowdfunding and robo-advisors . However, the unintended consequences of technology-leveraged finance include firesales, flash crashes, botched initial public offerings, cybersecurity breaches, catastrophic algorithmic trading errors and a technological arms race that has created new winners, losers and systemic risk in the financial ecosystem. These challenges are an unavoidable aspect of the growing importance of finance in an increasingly digital society. Rather than fighting this trend or forswearing technology, the ultimate solution is to develop more robust technology capable of adapting to the foibles in human behaviour so users can employ these tools safely, effectively and effortlessly. Examples of such technology are provided.
    Keywords: Financial technology, systemic risk, macroprudential policy, risk management
    Date: 2016–05
  4. By: Deichmann,Uwe; Goyal,Aparajita; Mishra,Deepak K.
    Abstract: Mobile phones and the internet have significantly affected practically all sectors of the economy, and agriculture is no exception. Building on a recent World Bank flagship report, this paper introduces a concise framework for describing the main benefits from new information and communications technologies. They promote greater inclusion in the broader economy, raise efficiency by complementing other production factors, and foster innovation by dramatically reducing transaction costs. The paper reviews the recent literature on corresponding technology impacts in the rural sector in developing countries. Digital technologies overcome information problems that hinder market access for many small-scale farmers, increase knowledge through new ways of providing extension services, and they provide novel ways for improving agricultural supply chain management. Although there are many promising examples of positive impacts on rural livelihoods--or"digital dividends"--often these have not scaled up to the extent expected. The main reason is that technology can only address some, but not all, of the barriers faced by farmers in the poorer countries.
    Keywords: E-Business,Agricultural Knowledge and Information Systems,ICT Policy and Strategies,Technology Industry,Rural Development Knowledge&Information Systems
    Date: 2016–05–11
  5. By: Simplice Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Jacinta C. Nwachukwu (Coventry University)
    Abstract: This study assesses the mobile phone in the diffusion of knowledge for better governance in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2012. For this purpose we employ Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. The empirical evidence is based on three complementary knowledge diffusion variables (innovation, internet penetration and educational quality) and ten governance indicators that are bundled and unbundled. The following are the main findings. First, there is an unconditional positive effect of mobile phone penetration on good governance. Second, the net effects on political, economic and institutional governances that are associated with the interaction of the mobile phone with knowledge diffusion variables are positive for the most part. Third, countries with low levels of governance are catching-up their counterparts with higher levels of governance. The above findings are broadly consistent with theoretical underpinnings on the relevance of mobile phones in mitigating bad governance in Africa. The evidence of some insignificant net effects and decreasing marginal impacts may be an indication that the mobile phone could also be employed to decrease government quality. Overall, this study has established net positive effects for the most part. Five rationales could elicit the positive net effects on good governance from the interaction between mobile phones and knowledge diffusion, among others, the knowledge variables enhance: reach, access, adoption, cost-effectiveness and interaction. In a nut shell, the positive net effects are apparent because the knowledge diffusion variables complement mobile phones in reducing information asymmetry and monopoly that create conducive conditions for bad governance. The contribution of the findings to existing theories and justifications of the underlying positive net effects are discussed.
    Keywords: Mobile phones; Governance; Africa
    JEL: G20 O38 O40 O55 P37
  6. By: Zhong, Hua; Qing, Ping; Hu, Wuyang
    Abstract: This study attempts to investigate Chinese rural consumer online expenditures and factors explaining their purchasing decisions. Through a survey of rural consumers in China, we investigate their perceptions and attitudes on online shopping, such as the most often purchased items, reasons of shopping online, the most favorite online store, the most often used payment method, online expenditures, online shopping frequencies, and daily online viewing activities. Our results show that if consumer incomes are mainly from migrant labors or local non-agriculture related small businesses, they will shop online more frequently. If consumers’ main monthly expenditures are medical expenses and clothing, they will spend 74 and 57 yuan less per month, respectively, to shop online. The more time consumers spend on online activities, the more frequently they will purchase online, and the more money they will spend on online shopping.
    Keywords: Expenditure, Online shopping, Rural consumer, Consumer/Household Economics, Marketing, D12, Q12,
    Date: 2016–07
  7. By: Melisande Cardona (European Commission - JRC - IPTS)
    Abstract: A cross-border e-commerce Mystery Shopping Survey conducted in 2015, finds that the practice of erecting virtual barriers is still common in cross-border e-commerce within the EU, as it was in 2009. Electrical appliances, electronics and computer games are particularly difficult to buy online from another country. Geo-blocking often takes place at the delivery stage of the online purchase process and less often at the access stage. Larger websites can also block access according to a buyer’s IP address. Geo-blocking is less probably between countries sharing a common language while a common border or geographical proximity has no effect. Travel services have a different pattern of geo-blocking from tangible goods, where geo-blocking mainly takes place at the access stage. Price analysis shows that differentiation takes place in all sectors, but is more common in the sectors less affected by geo-blocking.
    Keywords: geo-blocking, mystery shopping, cross-border e-commerce, digital single market
    JEL: D12
    Date: 2016–05
  8. By: Dhoha AlSaleh (Gulf University for Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Understanding impact of social media on user's attitude is important. As social media have become very popular amongst people and have become an integral part of the world economy in recent years, predicting impact of social media sites has become a major goal of many researchers in academia and industry. The objectives of the proposed research are two-fold. The first objective is to identify factors that strongly predict consumers' attitudes toward social media usage. The second objective is to investigate how culture influences adoption of social media in developed and less developed countries. The research draws upon the Theory of Reasoned Action, TRA (Fishbein & Ajzen 1975) and the Technology Acceptance Model, TAM (Davis 1989). To achieve the objectives of this research, an English and Arabic Online survey is developed for the US and Kuwait samples and then Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used for testing of the hypothesized relationships and to compare the two cultures. This research provides valuable information and new insights for scholars and managers. The results of this study enable marketing managers understand the importance of social media that can be used to enhance their business. More specifically, the research will assist marketing managers in Kuwait and the US in understanding the critical factors that lead businesses to create their own social media sites by identifying what factors affect consumer's attitude toward social media sites in order for business owners to focus on the most important factors without placing unnecessary emphasis on aspects which are proven to be less important. Furthermore, based on the positive significant results, marketing managers in the two countries are be able to develop effective advertisement strategies through social media based on the proper mix of factors depending on the target market.
    Keywords: Social Media, Critical Mass, Attitude, Perceived Usefulness, Perceived Ease of Use, Theory of Reasoned Action, Technology Acceptance Model.
  9. By: Pozdnukhov, Alexey
    Abstract: This project develops machine learning algorithms and methods for processing of cell phone location logs to generate travel behavior data. The project initially focuses on bias correction and activity inference for generating activity-based travel demand models. Inferred activity chains are used to calibrate an agent-based traffic micro-simulation for the SF Bay Area, and validated on loop detector counts.
    Keywords: Engineering, activity-based travel demand models, cellular data, machine learning, agent-based simulation
    Date: 2016–03–31
  10. By: Ponomarenko, Alexey
    Abstract: This paper discusses the money creation mechanisms in emerging markets with special focus on external transactions. We argue that one should not rule out the possibility that fluctuations in the loans-to-deposits and non-core liabilities ratios are driven by the banks. We also argue that, under a flexible exchange rate regime in which the central bank is not trying to accumulate foreign reserves, external transactions are unlikely to contribute significantly to money growth. To make our argument, we analyze a historical episode of these flows in Korea and Russia and conduct a canonical correlation analysis for a cross-section of emerging market economies.
    Keywords: Money supply, non-core liabilities, loans-to-deposits ratio, emerging markets
    JEL: E51 F30 G21
    Date: 2016–03–15
  11. By: Williams, John C. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: Speech at the LendIt USA 2016 conference, San Francisco, California, April 12, 2016.
    Date: 2016–04–12
  12. By: OECD
    Abstract: This report provides new evidence on the effects of digital technologies on the demand for skills and discusses key policies for skills development adapted to the digital economy. Workers across an increasing range of occupations need generic and/or advanced ICT skills to use such technologies effectively. More fundamentally, the diffusion of digital technologies is changing how work is done, raising demand for complementary skills such as information processing, self-direction, problem solving and communication. This report discusses measures that can help to ensure that the diffusion of digital technologies is accompanied by the development of the skills needed for their effective use, an increase in the responsiveness of national skills development systems to changes in skills demand and of new learning opportunities created by digital technologies.
    Date: 2016–06–02
  13. By: Santucci, Lawrence (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: We track the disposition of revolving credit card balances that existed as of March 2009 — the peak of outstanding balances in our data set — over a four-year period. We find that 75 percent of those balances had been paid off or charged off by February 2013. Charge-offs played a much smaller role in balance reduction than did paydown: 27.8 percent of balances were charged off, while 72.2 percent were paid down. Charge-offs accounted for a much larger share of balance reduction in the riskiest quintile and almost none of the reduction in the least risky quintile. After stratifying by risk score as of March 2009, balance, and utilization, we find that highly utilized accounts were no more likely to reduce their debt balances than low utilized accounts. We also find that low-utilization accounts were more likely to reduce their balances by paydown rather than default. By comparing accounts affected by unfavorable events, such as closures, freezes, and rate increases, with those accounts that did not experience such an event, we find that, while the aggregate results appear to be similar, there is a high degree of variation within risk quartiles, both with respect to debt reduction rates and to balance reduction shares attributed to paydown and to charge-off.
    Keywords: Credit cards; Revolving balance; Deleveraging
    JEL: D14
    Date: 2016–05–18
  14. By: Simon Trimborn; Wolfgang Karl Härdle;
    Abstract: The S&P500 or DAX30 are important benchmarks for the financial industry. The first mimics the performance of the major US on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, while the second does the same for the German Prime Share sector. These and other indices describe different compositions of certain segments of the financial markets. It is surprising, though, to see that emerging e-coins have not been mapped into an index yet because with cryptos like Bitcoin, a new kind of asset of great public interest has arisen. One difficulty is that data sources are scarce and an effort has to be made to collect data with the necessary frequency. Another one is buried in the construction of indices. Usually, the index provider decides on a fixed number of index constituents which will represent the market segment. It is a huge challenge to set this fixed number and develop the rules to find the constituents, especially since markets change and this has to be taken into account. For volatile markets like the crypto market, having a fixed number of index constituents is an even stronger constraint since the liquidity changes very frequently. A method relying on the AIC is proposed to quickly react to market changes and therefore enable us to create an index, referred to as CRIX, for the cryptocurrency market. For further investigation of the new methodology, an application to the German and Mexican stock markets is provided. The results show that this methodology provides a more accurate benchmark compared to the DAX and IPC, the current market indices for Germany and Mexico. The codes used to obtain the results in this paper are available via
    Keywords: Index construction, CRIX, information criteria, model selection, AIC, BIC, market analysis, bitcoin, cryptocurrency
    JEL: C51 C52 G10
    Date: 2016–03

This nep-pay issue is ©2016 by Bernardo Bátiz-Lazo. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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