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on Open Economy Macroeconomics |
| By: | Kosuke Aoki (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN); Alan Auerbach (Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Charles Yuji Horioka (Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Asian Growth Research Institute, JAPAN, and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Anil Kashyap (University of Chicago Booth School of Business, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.); Tsutomu Watanabe (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo, JAPAN); David Weinstein (Department of Economics, Columbia University, U.S.A. and National Bureau of Economic Research, U.S.A.) |
| Abstract: | Takatoshi Ito, who passed away in September 2025, was a leading scholar of macroeconomics and international finance. This column, written by a group of friends and colleagues, outlines his many contributions in a lifetime of research, teaching and policy-making in Japan, the United States and around the world. His work is particularly notable for challenging the widespread perception that standard economic analysis is somehow ill-suited for understanding the Japanese economy. Indeed, using the discipline's rigorous tools, he illuminated challenges that Japan faced earlier and more acutely than other countries – including population decline and ageing, ballooning government debt, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policies, real estate bubbles and their collapse, and the banking sector's problem of non-performing loans. |
| Keywords: | Asian economies; Exchange rate fluctuations; Foreign exchange intervention; Inflation targeting; International finance; Invoicing currency; Japanese economy; Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Takatoshi Ito; Zero interest rate policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 F14 F31 G15 O53 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2025-29 |
| By: | Wenli Cheng (Department of Economics Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the classical Ricardian model from a barter system to a monetary framework which emphasizes the pivotal role of the banking system in facilitating production and exchange. It studies international trade under three different monetary systems: (1) the Euro system, where a single currency facilitates both domestic and international trade; (2) the Bancor system, which relies on a supranational currency for trade between nations; and (3) the Dollar system, where one country’s national currency serves as the international media of exchange. The model preserves the Ricardian insight that specialization based on comparative advantage enhances global wealth, and identifies distinct features arising from different monetary systems. It shows that neither the Euro nor the Bancor system inherently generates trade imbalances. In contrast, the Dollar system imposes an asymmetric demand for the national currency used to conduct global trade. Since the currency demanded must be earned through net exports, trade imbalances are an intrinsic feature of the Dollar system. |
| Keywords: | : Ricardian model, the Euro sy |
| JEL: | F10 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-19 |
| By: | Della Corte, Pasquale; Gao, Can; Preve, Daniel P. A.; Valente, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bond strategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the study finds that predictive variance grows with the investment horizon, driven primarily by uncertainties in interest rate differentials and exchange rate returns, which outweigh mean reversion effects. The analysis, incorporating both observable and unobservable predictors, highlights that unobservable predictors linked to shifts in monetary and exchange rate regimes are the dominant source of long-term risk, offering fresh insights into international bond investment strategies. |
| Keywords: | Currency risk, Long-term bonds, Predictability, Long-term investments |
| JEL: | F31 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:331899 |
| By: | José Aurazo; Rafael Guerra; Pablo Tomasini; Alexandre Tombini; Christian Upper |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of environmental factors on international capital flows – specifically portfolio, bank, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows – to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using two complementary approaches, we first analyse how recipient country factors influence capital flows for 21 EMEs, finding that EMEs with lower exposure to extreme weather events, a greener energy mix, more and stronger climate-related policies tend to attract greater capital inflows. Second, using bilateral data for FDI and bank flows, we explore the role of sending country factors (advanced economies, AEs) in determining capital inflows to EMEs. The results suggest that stricter environmental regulations in AEs lead to increased capital inflows to EMEs with weaker green regulations. This suggests an "emission shifting" effect. At the same time, though, they also route more investment to EMEs with a greener energy mix. These findings underscore the significance of environmental factors in shaping international capital flows. |
| Keywords: | environmental factors, capital flows, emerging markets, energy mix |
| JEL: | F21 F23 F64 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1308 |
| By: | Hafsa Hina (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | The exchange rate is a crucial indicator of a nations performance in the external sector and influences key macroeconomic variables. In theory, exchange rates should be determined by market forces and reflect economic fundamentals; however, developing economies such as Pakistan often experience significant deviations due to structural weaknesses and policy interventions. This paper reviews the literature on the exchange rate in Pakistan, classifying and summarising the findings on nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates, real effective exchange rates, and foreign exchange market pressures. This review provides a comprehensive understanding of exchange rate policy in Pakistan and its economic implications. The paper concludes by identifying gaps in current research and suggesting areas of future study to address the complexities of exchange rate management in developing economies. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2025:3 |
| By: | Lewis, Vivien; Puangjit, Sirikorn |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three-equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as import tariffs in response to GPR increases. We calibrate the GPR process, sanction rule, and interest rate rule to match the observed dynamics of the GPR index, output, inflation, and the policy rate in Russian data. The sanction response to GPR allows the resulting model to capture the empirical impulse responses well. Additionally, we find that Russia's monetary policy rule is more accommodative than prescribed by the standard Taylor rule. While this may reflect policy preferences, recent theoretical results indicate that such a policy stance may be optimal when sanctions act as cost-push shocks that shift the Phillips Curve. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, monetary policy, New Keynesian model, sanctions |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E58 F42 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:331886 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Clemens; Kastens, Lina; vPortugal-Perez, Alberto; von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan |
| Abstract: | We look for evidence that countries increasingly insulate their domestic markets for staple grains from global markets when international prices increase. Previous studies have demonstrated that the transmission of international to domestic prices for these products is less than perfect, which reduces the ability of the global trading system to buffer shocks. However, past studies generally assume that relationships between international and domestic prices are constant, and hence that a country’s degree of insulation does not vary over time. To relax this assumption, we use a smooth-transition model, a modified version of the error correction model (ECM). We estimate elasticities of transmission from international to domestic wholesale and retail prices for a comprehensive set of countries for wheat, yellow and white maize, and rice. We find that price transmission from international to domestic prices weakens in many countries and on average when international prices peak, in other words that the insulation of domestic from international prices increases during high-price episodes (such as in 2007/08 and 2022). We also find that this increased insulation cannot be attributed exclusively to changes in border measures such as export restrictions or import tariffs. This suggests that countries are also using measures such as price controls or the release of stocks to insulate their domestic markets for staple grains. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344313 |
| By: | José García Revelo; Jean-Guillaume Sahuc; Grégory Levieuge |
| Abstract: | The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve introduced new policy instruments and made changes to their operational frameworks to address the global financial crisis (2008) and the Covid-19 pandemic (2020). We study the macroeconomic effects of these monetary policy evolutions on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean by developing and estimating a tractable two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. We show that the euro area and the United States faced shocks of different natures, explaining some asynchronous monetary policy measures between 2008 and 2023. However, counterfactual exercises highlight that all conventional and unconventional policies implemented since 2008 have appropriately (i) supported economic growth and (ii) maintained inflation on track in both areas. The exception is the delayed reaction to the inflationary surge during 2021-2022. Furthermore, exchange rate shocks played a significant role in shaping the overall monetary conditions of the two economies. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy, Real Exchange Rate Dynamics, Two-Country DSGE Model, Bayesian Estimation, Counterfactual Exercises |
| JEL: | E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1018 |
| By: | Bing Zhu; Dorinth van Dijk; Dennis Bonam; Gavin Goy |
| Abstract: | The effectiveness of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) and their international spillovers to global asset prices and capital flows have dominated policy discussions. This paper is the first to document the effect of UMP on global commercial real estate (CRE) markets. Even though the size of CRE as asset class is substantial, the subject has received very limited interest in research studying the effect of monetary policy. We empirically find that a domestic UMP significantly impacts US CRE pricing through credit supply. We additionally document persistent price effects on foreign non-US CRE markets. This effect largely stems from global CRE market spillovers. In fact, global CRE market spillovers are found to amplify the original domestic UMP effect on US CRE prices. We aim to enrich our empirical findings with a two-country DSGE-model that includes CRE pricing. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; International Spillovers; Quantitative Easing; Unconventional Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_180 |
| By: | Martin Brown (Study Center Gerzensee and University of St. Gallen); Daniel Hoechle (University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland); Lizet Alejandra Perez Cortes (University of St. Gallen); Markus Schmid (University of St. Gallen, Swiss Finance Institute (SFI), and European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption through wealth effects in a small open economy. As a natural experiment, we exploit the 2015 Swiss franc shock, triggered by the Swiss National Bank’s unexpected removal of the euro exchange rate floor. Using granular administrative data from a retail bank, we document substantial consumption responses by households with portfolio exposures to the policy shock. We show that a 1% valuation loss on financial assets is associated with a 0.7% reduction in total spending in the quarter following the shock. This effect is driven by large-ticket spending rather than out-of-pocket spending, attenuates rapidly over time, and depends strongly on the magnitude of the valuation loss. Our results provide direct evidence of a sizeable, immediate, and short-lived wealth channel of monetary policy. They underscore the role of exchange-rate-induced asset revaluations in shaping consumption dynamics in open economies. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:2506 |
| By: | Artta, Katja (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Nessén, Marianne (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Vredin, Anders (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Savoia, Ettore (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We examine how central bank foreign exchange (FX) operations affect nominal exchange rates by exploiting two large operations by Sveriges Riksbank: foreign currency purchases during 2021–2022 and domestic Swedish krona (SEK) purchases—that is, FX forward sales— during 2023–2024. Using daily data and local projections, we identify unanticipated operation shocks to the SEK against the euro (EUR) and the U.S. dollar (USD). On average, we observe sign consistency—depreciation during FX purchases and appreciation during SEK purchases. Three main results emerge: (i) effects unfold gradually but fade quickly, becoming statistically insignificant after about ten trading days; (ii) they are regimedependent, with FX purchases inducing larger depreciations and domestic currency purchase yielding smaller, delayed appreciations; and (iii) FX purchases generate long-run (11-60 days) currency-specific effects, with a stronger SEK depreciation against the EUR relative to the USD. However, results are more uniform across currencies in the short run (1–10 days) and throughout the domestic currency purchase period. |
| Keywords: | Foreign exchange operations; Local Projections; exchange rates |
| JEL: | E58 F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0456 |
| By: | Serkan Arslanalp; Barry Eichengreen; Chima Simpson-Bell |
| Abstract: | We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent with our findings in our earlier papers. In addition we look to the future, pondering the potential implications of dollar-linked stablecoins, the expansion of the BRICS grouping of countries and their de- dollarization plans, the development of blockchain-based platforms such as Project mBridge for the direct exchange of central bank digital currencies, and questions about the dollar’s safe-haven status. |
| JEL: | F0 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34478 |
| By: | Andrei, Dalina; Andrei, Liviu Catalin |
| Abstract: | There was a time in which political authorities and decision makers were not collaborating with anybody else – here including scientific persons and bodies(authorities) – about documents that they were enacting. Such a typical aspect was easy noticed in the case of the international organization of “Latin Monetary Union” (1865-1927), of which’s written status at its time was including some exemplarily hilarious phrases. A new significant moment was the one of the international Conference hosted at Bretton-Woods in 1944 for a new international monetary system to replace the former gold standard – i.e. a tense dialogue between the hosting American administration and the famous JM Keynes, formally the UK’s representative, actually the lonely one in the audience with his own such IMS project and a legend in the area of economics. Briefly, there was a time of lack of or of not yet experience in relating the economic life and reality to the economic thinking. Economics, as a science, unlike physics or chemistry, to which the Nobel Prize is also addressed and which are natural and exact sciences, stays dominated by theories (instead of scientific postulates), so by the dialogue, despite not exactly like in democracy. In such an order, also economics stays different than the real economic life and even than the last’s specific policies applied. Just a natural mutual approaching each-other does complete this landscape since the times in which there was rather no contacts, but nothing could here be sudden or automatic. Today there is to be noticed and why not applauded the good habit in which Nobel Prizes' laureates do address to the communities about current issues in the specialty. Previously, in 1993 Paul Krugman, another Nobel Prize winner in his turn, had issued his “Lessons of Massachusetts for the EMU” and also other examples could be given. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Common currency, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, Economic integration |
| JEL: | F15 F42 F43 F45 |
| Date: | 2025–08–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126686 |
| By: | Maria Arakelyan; Tatiana Evdokimova |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the impact of political uncertainty on international capital flows to emerging market economies. We incorporate elections as a proxy for political uncertainty into a standard push-pull framework for analyzing capital flows. Using quarterly data for a panel of 38 emerging market economies from 1990 to 2020, we show that periods surrounding elections are associated with a decline in gross private capital inflows. This adverse impact is larger and more persistent when uncertainty extends beyond the election period, for example in the context of uncertain policy priorities following incumbent’s loss. By contrast, higher levels of overall political stability appear to mitigate these adverse effects. We also find evidence that stronger institutions, as reflected in indicators such as regulatory quality and rule of law, help to mitigate the adverse effects of political uncertainty on capital flows. The results remain robust across a range of alternative specifications, including controls for standard economic drivers of capital flows, election characteristics, and model assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows; political cycles; uncertainty; emerging markets; push and pull factors |
| Date: | 2025–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/243 |