|
on Open Economy Macroeconomics |
| By: | Kostas Mouratidis (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK); Georgios Papapanagiotou (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece); Christoph Thoenissen (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK) |
| Abstract: | The level of productivity is an important macroeconomic indicator that informs monetary policy decisions. Since the 2008 financial crisis, UK productivity has plunged and remained below its pre-crisis level for more than a decade. Evidence that the European debt crisis was generated by a fall of productivity and subsequent current account deficit of South euro area countries raises challenging questions about the impact of productivity on the UK’s business cycle. We measure this impact by accounting for both permanent and transitory shocks to total factor productivity (TFP) and investment-specific technology (IST). Our results suggest that permanent positive TFP and IST shocks worsen the trade balance by increasing domestic absorption and appreciating the real exchange rate. However, the real exchange rate itself has no effect on net trade. In contrast, cyclical productivity shocks do not impact trade or the real exchange rate. Finally, our findings show that the financial crisis had a long-run negative impact on both output and trade. |
| Keywords: | Productivity, Trade Balance, International Business Cycle, Cointegration and GVAR |
| JEL: | C11 C23 C32 F14 F21 F32 F44 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2024005 |
| By: | Assaf Razin; Andrzej Cieslik |
| Abstract: | This essay highlights the effects of radical transformations in the liberal characteristics of the regimes on foreign direct investors. To focus on the common patterns in the effects on foreign direct investment, of liberal vs. illiberal regime change, the essay spotlights the tale of two countries: Poland and Israel. The liberalization of the Polish economy and market reforms in the late 1980s and early 1990s boosted Poland's attractiveness to international companies. However, decades-long of illiberal policies under the PiS regime has reduced Poland's appeal to foreign investors. Similarly, Israel's GNP especially the high-tech sector saw significant growth from the 1990s to the 2010s, driven by the liberalization of capital and finance surges, and the global IT boom immigration. As a more-or-less a laboratory experiment for the real-economy impact of an abrupt transition to an illiberal regime, early steps of a comprehensive judicial overhaul have disrupted Israel's growth, causing a sharp decline in foreign direct investment. |
| JEL: | F21 F40 P00 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32614 |
| By: | Girstmair, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines determinacy properties in a multi-country open economy framework, focusing on the impacts of dominant currency pricing (DCP), producer currency pricing (PCP), and local currency pricing (LCP) on monetary policy effectiveness. Utilizing a New Keynesian model with three symmetric economies, each guided by Taylor rules, the study extends the framework of Gopinath et al. (2020) to analyze how these pricing paradigms interact with central bank policies to achieve economic stability. The investigation highlights that higher economic openness amplifies interactions among central banks’ policies, complicating the attainment of determinacy. DCP significantly constrains policy parameters ensuring determinacy, particularly in open economies. Conversely, PCP and LCP offer relatively larger determinacy regions, allowing for greater domestic policy control. The findings emphasize the critical role of pricing paradigms and economic openness in formulating effective monetary policies. This study provides essential insights for central banks and policymakers in enhancing global economic stability through tailored policy recommendations based on the chosen pricing paradigm. |
| Keywords: | Determinacy; Taylor rule; Three-country new Keynesian model; Pricing paradigms; Openness |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F33 F4 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:dynare:082 |
| By: | Sergi Basco; Jair N. Ojeda-Joya |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the effects of international remittances on local house prices. International remittances are one of the main drivers of capital inflows in emerging economies. We consider the salient case of Colombia. In the last two decades, remittances have represented, on average, 2% of GDP. One main advantage of studying the Colombian housing market is that we are able to construct a panel of housing returns at the project level. By exploiting the regional and temporal variation of international remittances, we document that they have large heterogeneous effects across regions and housing types. In particular, we find that remittances inflows have positive effects on house prices growth in high unemployment municipalities and low-quality housing. These results hold when considering an IV-strategy using remittances to Latin America countries (excluding Colombia). We develop a stylized model with borrowing constrained households and segmented housing markets to rationalize these results. Our findings suggest that international remittances are an important source of liquidity for credit constrained households. RESUMEN: Este artículo examina empíricamente el efecto de las remesas internacionales en los precios de la vivienda en Colombia. Las remesas internacionales son uno de los principales componentes de los ingresos de capital en economías emergentes. Consideramos el caso relevante de Colombia ya que, en las últimas dos décadas, los ingresos de remesas han representado, en promedio, el 2% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB). Una de las principales ventajas de estudiar el mercado de vivienda colombiano es la posibilidad de construir un panel de precios de vivienda nueva al nivel de proyectos individuales. Mediante el estudio de las variaciones temporales y regionales de las remesas internacionales, documentamos que estas tienen efectos heterogéneos significativos para las diferentes regiones y tipos de vivienda. En particular, encontramos que los ingresos de remesas tienen efectos positivos en los precios de la vivienda en regiones con alto desempleo y en zonas de estrato bajo. Los resultados se mantienen cuando usamos una estrategia de estimación con variables instrumentales mediante el uso de ingresos de remesas a Latinoamérica (excluyendo a Colombia). Desarrollamos un modelo estilizado con restricciones de endeudamiento para las familias y mercados segmentados de vivienda para entender estos resultados. Estos resultados sugieren que las remesas internacionales son una fuente importante de liquidez para las familias con restricciones de endeudamiento. |
| Keywords: | House Prices, International Remittances, Borrowing Constraints, Instrumental Variables, Precios de vivienda, remesas internacionales, restricciones de endeudamiento, variables instrumentales |
| JEL: | F32 F41 F44 O15 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1273 |
| By: | Shangshang Li |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates gains from international monetary policy cooperation between the financial center and periphery countries in a two-country open economy model consistent with global financial cycles. Compared to the non-cooperative Nash equilibrium, the optimal cooperative equilibrium robustly fails to benefit both countries simultaneously. The financial periphery is more likely to gain from cooperation if it raises less foreign currency debt or is relatively small. These results also hold when considering the transitional gains and losses of moving from non-cooperation to cooperation. The uneven distribution of gains from cooperation persists when both countries adopt implementable policy rules with and without cooperation. Nevertheless, both countries gain when transitioning from the Nash to the cooperative implementable rules. Regardless of the financial center's policy, rules responding to the exchange rate dominate over purely inward-looking rules for the financial periphery. |
| Keywords: | policy cooperation, global financial cycle, currency mismatch |
| JEL: | F34 E52 F42 E44 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2024:m:07:i:199 |
| By: | Domenico Delli Gatti; Tommaso Ferraresi; Filippo Gusella; Lilit Popoyan; Giorgio Ricchiuti; Andrea Roventini |
| Abstract: | We present a multi-country, multi-sector agent-based model that extends Dosi et al. (2019) and incorporates the exchange market and its interaction with the real economy. The exchange rate is influenced not only by trade flows but also by the heterogeneous demand for foreign currencies from financial traders. In this respect, the dual nature of the exchange rate is highlighted, acting both as a transmission channel of endogenous shocks and as a source of shocks. Indeed, differing beliefs bring about real-financial non-linear patterns with feedback mechanisms. Simulations show that the introduction of speculative sentiment behaviour reflects important stylised facts of bilateral exchange rate series. Furthermore, the findings indicate that trend-following behaviour substantially increases financial turbulence and contributes to real economic fluctuations. Finally, we highlight the power and limitations of the central bank as an actor in the exchange rate market, showing that while the central bank's interventions can effectively curb boom-bust cycles, their outcomes differ substantially. |
| Keywords: | agent-based model, exchange rate dynamics, endogenous cycles, heterogeneous traders, central bank interventions. |
| JEL: | E3 F41 O4 O41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2024_10.rdf |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti; Andrei Zlate |
| Abstract: | We document a steady decline in low-skilled immigration that began with the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with labor shortages in low-skilled service occupations and a decline in the skill premium. Falling returns to high-skilled jobs coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native-born workers. We develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to account for these facts and study macroeconomic performance and welfare. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers and higher consumer prices. Importantly, the decline in the skill premium discourages the training of native workers, persistently reducing aggregate productivity and welfare. Stimulus policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a widespread shortage of low-skilled immigrant labor, exacerbated the rise in consumer prices and reduced welfare. We show that the 2021-2023 immigration surge helped to partially alleviate existing labor shortages and restore welfare. |
| Keywords: | immigration, skill premium, task upgrading, heterogeneous workers |
| JEL: | F16 F22 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-46 |
| By: | Violeta A. Gutkowski |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the significant growth of domestic credit once the debt is restructured and shows that is not correlated with the size of the haircut. Second, it performs an event study around Ecuador’s sovereign default and restructuring of 2008-2009 to study changes in domestic bank lending behavior. After external debt restructuring, private lending increased the most for banks highly exposed to public debt. Finally, it provides a simple model were uncertainty about the return on government external debt during default has spillover effects on the domestic economy by creating dispersion in beliefs across domestic banks, which leads to a misallocation of credit. External debt restructuring eliminates domestic belief heterogeneity by making the return on bonds observable to everyone. This simple framing is not only consistent with the substantial growth in domestic credit upon debt restructuring but also with its independence from the haircut size observed in the data. |
| Keywords: | banks; beliefs; sovereign debt restructuring; uncertainty |
| JEL: | D8 E44 H63 |
| Date: | 2024–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98514 |
| By: | Jeffrey A. Frankel; Yao Hou; Danxia Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new econometric framework to estimate and classify exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure captures the patterns of exchange rate dynamics and the interventions by authorities under each of the regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three-regime Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR) model to reveal the nonlinear nature of exchange rate dynamics. We further extend our benchmark framework to allow the evolution of exchange rate regimes over time by adopting the minimum description length (MDL) principle, to overcome the challenge of simultaneous two-dimensional inference of nonlinearity in the state dimension and structural breaks in the time dimension. We apply our framework to 26 countries. The results suggest that exchange rate dynamics under different regimes are well captured by our new framework. |
| JEL: | F31 F33 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32644 |