nep-opm New Economics Papers
on Open MacroEconomics
Issue of 2009‒09‒19
six papers chosen by
Martin Berka
Massey University

  1. Transmission of nominal exchange rate changes to export prices and trade flows and implications for exchange rate policy By Hoffmann, Mathias; Holtemöller, Oliver
  2. Evaluating a monetary business cycle model with unemployment for the euro area By Nicolas Groshenny
  3. Do we really know that flexible exchange rates facilitate current account adjustment?: some new empirical evidence for CEE countries By Herrmann, Sabine
  4. How different is the exchange rate pass-through in new member states of the EU? Some potential explanatory factors By María-Dolores, Ramon
  5. Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates By Buncic, Daniel
  6. Determinants and dynamics of current account reversals: an empirical analysis By Liesenfeld, Roman; Moura, Guilherme V.; Richard, Jean-François

  1. By: Hoffmann, Mathias; Holtemöller, Oliver
    Abstract: We discuss how the welfare ranking of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes in a New Open Economy Macroeconomics model depends on the interplay between the degree of exchange rate pass-through and the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods. We identify combinations of these two parameters for which flexible and for which fixed exchange rates are superior with respect to welfare as measured by a representative household's utility level. We estimate the two parameters for six non-EMU European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Sweden, United Kingdom) using a heterogeneous dynamic panel approach.
    Keywords: Elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods,exchange rate pass-through,exchange rate regime choice,expenditure switching effect,heterogeneous dynamic panel,New Open Economy Macroeconomics
    JEL: F41 F31 F14
    Date: 2009
  2. By: Nicolas Groshenny (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Abstract: This paper estimates a medium-scale DSGE model with search unemployment by matching model and data spectra. Price markup shocks emerge as the main source of business-cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Key for the propagation of these disturbances are a high degree of inflation ndexation and a persistent response of monetary policy to deviations of inflation from the target.
    JEL: E32 C51 C52
    Date: 2009–09
  3. By: Herrmann, Sabine
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the pace of current account adjustment. The panel data set we refer to includes 11 catching-up countries from central, eastern and south-eastern Europe between 1994 and 2007. The exchange rate regime is measured by a continuous z-score measure of exchange rate volatility proposed by Gosh, Gulde and Wolf (2003). Based on a basic autoregression estimation, the results indicate that a more flexible exchange rate regime significantly enhances the rate of current account adjustment.
    Keywords: Current account adjustment,exchange rate regime,Central and Eastern Europe
    JEL: F32 F31 O52
    Date: 2009
  4. By: María-Dolores, Ramon (Departamentos y Servicios::Departamentos de la UMU::Fundamentos del Análisis Económico)
    Abstract: This paper uses data on import unit values for nine different product categories and bilateral imports to study the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports that originated inside the Euro Area made by some New Member States (NMSs) of the European Union and one candidate country (Turkey). I estimate industry-specific rates of pass-through across and within countries using the methodological approach proposed by de Bandt, Banerjee and Kozluk (2008). I did not find evidence in favour of the hypothesis of Local Currency Pricing (zero pass-through) and the hypothesis of Producer Currency Pricing (complete pass-through) could be accepted in some countries for different industries. My results also show that there is a clear positive relationship between exchange rate pass-through and average inflation in these countries. I do find a slightly positive pattern for the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and openness. With reference to the relationship between exchange rate pass-through and the type of exchange rate regime I observe that a less volatile exchange rate implies a less degree of exchange rate pass-through. In industries I obtain a less degree of exchange rate pass-through in differentiated manufactured products. By including possible statistical break-dates in the estimation process I observe that some NMSs have decreased the exchange rate pass-through in recent years. Some of the breaks are close to the dates of some major institutional changes in these countries (changes in monetary policy and exchange rate regimes and the starting up of the EU membership).
    Keywords: exchange rates, monetary union, pass-through, panel cointegration
    JEL: D12 R23
    Date: 2009–06
  5. By: Buncic, Daniel
    Abstract: The forecast performance of the empirical ESTAR model of Taylor, Peel and Sarno (2001) is examined for 4 bilateral real exchange rate series over an out-of-sample evaluation period of nearly 12 years. Point as well as density forecasts are constructed, considering forecast horizons of 1 to 22 steps head. The study finds that no forecast gains over a simple AR(1) specification exist at any of the forecast horizons that are considered, regardless of whether point or density forecasts are utilised in the evaluation. Non-parametric methods are used in conjunction with simulation techniques to learn about the models and their forecasts. It is shown graphically that the nonlinearity in the point forecasts of the ESTAR model decreases as the forecast horizon increases. The non-parametric methods show also that the multiple steps ahead forecast densities are normal looking with no signs of bi-modality, skewness or kurtosis. Overall, there seems little to be gained from using an ESTAR specification over a simple AR(1) model.
    Keywords: Purchasing power parity, regime modelling, non-linear real exchange rate models, ESTAR, forecast evaluation, density forecasts, non-parametric methods.
    JEL: C53 C52 C22 F47 F31
    Date: 2009–02–03
  6. By: Liesenfeld, Roman; Moura, Guilherme V.; Richard, Jean-François
    Abstract: We use panel probit models with unobserved heterogeneity, state-dependence and serially correlated errors in order to analyze the determinants and the dynamics of current-account reversals for a panel of developing and emerging countries. The likelihood-based inference of these models requires high-dimensional integration for which we use Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS). Our results suggest that current account balance, terms of trades, foreign reserves and concessional debt are important determinants of current-account reversal. Furthermore, we find strong evidence for serial dependence in the occurrence of reversals. While the likelihood criterion suggest that state-dependence and serially correlated errors are essentially observationally equivalent, measures of predictive performance provide support for the hypothesis that the serial dependence is mainly due to serially correlated country-specific shocks related to local political or macroeconomic events.
    Keywords: Panel data,dynamic discrete choice,importance sampling,Monte Carlo integration,state dependence,spillover effects
    JEL: C15 C23 C25 F32
    Date: 2009

This nep-opm issue is ©2009 by Martin Berka. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.