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on Open MacroEconomics |
| By: | Clinton R. Shiells; Joseph Francois (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | We offer a duality-based methodology for incorporating multi-sector effects of international trade into open economy macroeconomic models, developing the concepts of the dynamic factor price equalization set and the integrated intertemporal equilibrium. Under this approach, the aggregate production function depends on output prices and factor endowment stocks. It preserves all of the structure of a standard GDP function from the trade theory literature. In a two-country version of the model considered below, we examine the properties of the dynamic factor price equalization set. If the global economy is initially outside of this set, the equations of motion will pull the economy back into this set. Inside the dynamic FPE set, factor prices are equalized internationally, and with identical tastes and technology, the economy can be regarded as a fully integrated world equilibrium in a dynamic sense (the integrated intertemporal equilibrium). In this equilibrium, all of the standard properties of a closed economy one-sector neoclassical growth model hold, ruling out cycles and chaos, and allowing us to characterize the evolution of international inequality and the persistence of productivity and endowment shocks. Working from the integrated intertemporal equilibrium, we identify properties of persistence linked to inequality and real economic shocks. Cross-country differences in per capita incomes and wealth, and the factor content of trading patterns, may persist over time and even into the new steady state. This provides yet another reason why we might observe lack of income convergence internationally. In addition, real shocks in one country may be transmitted to the other country through factor markets and product prices, and may have persistent effects into the steady-state as well. The model can also generate an endogenous Balassa-Samuelson effect. |
| Keywords: | Neoclassical models of trade, economic growth of open economies, cross-country output convergence |
| JEL: | F41 O47 F11 F43 |
| Date: | 2009–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:52&r=opm |
| By: | jair Ojeda Joya |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence of long run purchasing power parity by performing a recently developed method to test for unit roots in the presence of structural breaks. Data consist of real exchange rate series for 20 countries including developed and developing economies. Structural breaks are detected in 18 countries and real exchange rates are found to be stationary in all countries except Japan. Estimated linear trends are the result of cross-country total factor productivity differentials between tradable and nontradable sectors. Estimated breaks correspond to large and permanent total factor productivity shocks associated with historical events like wars, structural reforms or deep economic recessions. An exercise with total factor productivity data shows that the Balassa-Samuelson effect explains the estimated long run trends in most countries. |
| Date: | 2009–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000094:005521&r=opm |
| By: | Hevia, Constantino; Nicolini, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | According to the conventional wisdom, when an economy enters a recession and nominal prices adjust slowly, the monetary authority should devalue the domestic currency to make the recession less severe. The reason is that a devaluation of the currency lowers the relative price of non-tradable goods, and this reduces the necessary adjustment in output relative to the case in which the exchange rate remains constant. This paper uses a simple small open economy model with sticky prices to characterize optimal fiscal and monetary policy in response to productivity and terms of trade shocks. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, in this framework optimal exchange rate policy cannot be characterized just by the cyclical properties of output. The source of the shock matters: while recessions induced by a drop in the price of exportable goods call for a devaluation of the currency, those induced by a drop in productivity in the non-tradable sector require a revaluation. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Economic Stabilization |
| Date: | 2009–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4926&r=opm |
| By: | Fernando Alexandre (University of Minho and NIPE); Pedro Bação (University of Coimbra and GEMF); João Cerejeira (University of Minho and NIPE); Miguel Portela (University of Minho, NIPE and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Economic theory and empirical evidence suggest that fluctuations in exchange rates may have strong reallocation effects. Accession to the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, and then to the European Monetary Union in 1999, implied a drastic change in the behaviour of Portugal's exchange rate indexes. The analysis of those indexes is therefore bound to play an important role in the study of the evolution of the Portuguese economy in the last two decades. However, there are many alternative exchange rate indexes. In this paper, we compute and compare aggregate and sector-specific exchange rate indexes for the Portuguese economy. We find that alternative effective exchange rate indexes are very similar between them. We also find that sector-specific effective exchange rates are strongly correlated with aggregate indexes. Nevertheless, we show that sector-specific exchange rates are more informative than aggregate exchange rates in explaining changes in employment: whereas aggregate indexes are statistically insignificant in employment equations, regressions using sector-specific exchange rate indexes show a statistically significant and economically large effect of exchange rates on employment. |
| Keywords: | exchange rates, international trade, employment, EMU. |
| JEL: | F15 F16 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2009-05&r=opm |
| By: | Pami Dua |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determination of inflation in the framework of an open economy forward-looking as well as conventional backward-looking Phillips curve for eight Asian countries- Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Philippines, Thailand, China Mainland and India. Using Quarterly data and applying the instrumental variables estimation technique, it is found that the output gap is significant in explaining the inflation rate in almost all the countries. Furthermore, at least one measure of international competitiveness has a statistically significant influence on inflation in all the countries. The differences in the developed and developing world are highlighted by the significance of agriculture related supply shocks in determining inflation in the case of developing countries. For all countries, the forward-looking Phillips curve provides a better fit compared to the backward looking variant.[WP 178] |
| Keywords: | Inflation; Open Economy; Phillips Curve; Asian economies; inflation rate; supply shocks; monetary variables; demand factors; domestic factors; external factors; supply factors; devloping countries; developed countriesi |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:1973&r=opm |
| By: | Yuko Hashimoto; Takatoshi Ito |
| Abstract: | Market impacts of Japanese macroeconomic announcements within minutes on the dollar/yen foreign exchange are analyzed. High-frequency data collected from the actual trading platform, EBS, are used. First, impacts on returns are analyzed. Macroeconomic statistics releases that consistently had significant effects on exchange rate returns include Tankan survey (a short-term business survey conducted by Bank of Japan), GDP, industrial production (preliminary), PPI, CPI (Tokyo area), the unemployment rate and Balance of Payment statistics. Macroeconomic statistics releases that did not have impacts on returns include Trade Balance, Retail Sales and Housing start indicators. Second, for most of macroeconomic news items whose surprise components have return impacts also have impacts on deals and volatility. The announcement itself, in addition to the magnitude of surprise, is found to increase the deals and price volatility in the immediately after the announcement. In addition, some other items have no return impacts but deals and volatility impacts. These facts are consistent with a view that market participants have heterogeneous information, so that even without any price change, trades take place. Price discovery process may require some transactions with price fluctuations around new price level consistent with statistical announcement |
| JEL: | E44 F31 F41 G15 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15020&r=opm |
| By: | SHIMASAWA Manabu; OGURO Kazumasa |
| Abstract: | To quantify the impacts of immigration on the Japanese economy, we present a large-scale numerical dynamic equilibrium model with OLG and a total of 16 countries and regions, both those that are industrialized including Japan, the U.S. and EU, and developing countries China, Brazil, the Philippines and Peru. Our simulation results show that immigration will improve the Japanese economy. Specifically, annual immigrant flows of 150,000 will dramatically improve the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, we canft expect a significant long-run improvement in welfare solely by implementing a policy increasing the consumption tax. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations. |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:09020&r=opm |
| By: | Philippe Bacchetta; Eric van Wincoop |
| Abstract: | It is well known from anecdotal, survey and econometric evidence that the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals is highly unstable. This could be explained when structural parameters are known and very volatile, neither of which seems plausible. Instead we argue that large and frequent variations in the relationship between the exchange rate and macro fundamentals naturally develop when structural parameters in the economy are unknown and change very slowly. We show that the reduced form relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals is driven not by the structural parameters themselves, but rather by expectations of these parameters. These expectations can be highly unstable as a result of perfectly rational “scapegoat†effects. This happens when parameters can potentially change much more in the long run than the short run. This generates substantial uncertainty about the level of parameters, even though monthly or annual changes are small. This mechanism can also be relevant in other contexts of forward looking variables and could explain the widespread evidence of parameter instability found in macroeconomic and financial data. Finally, we show that parameter instability has remarkably little effect on the volatility of exchange rates, the in-sample explanatory power of macro fundamentals and the ability to forecast out of sample. |
| JEL: | F31 F37 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15008&r=opm |