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on Open MacroEconomics |
| By: | Corsetti, Giancarlo; Dedola, Luca; Leduc, Sylvain |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the international dimension of productivity and demand shocks to US manufacturing. Identifying shocks with sign restrictions based on standard theory predictions we find that productivity gains in manufacturing - our measure of tradables - have substantial aggregate effects, boosting US consumption and investment, relative to the rest of the world, thus raising real imports; net exports and US net foreign assets correspondingly decrease. We also ascertain substantial repercussions through the international financial adjustment mechanism, via a rise in US shares prices and nontrivial portfolio shifts in gross US foreign assets and liabilities. At the same time these shocks appreciate the US real exchange rate and improve its terms of trade. Shocks to the demand for US manufacturing also lead to real dollar appreciation; however, they appear to have less pronounced aggregate effects, with limited impact on trade and capital accounts. Our findings provide novel evidence on key channels of the international transmission of business cycle impulses, including financial channels, linking aggregate demand, the current account, international relative prices. Namely, asymmetric wealth effects amplify rather than attenuate the consequences of US shocks to tradables on domestic aggregate spending, driving endogenous aggregate demand fluctuations across countries. |
| Keywords: | consumption risk sharing; International transmission mechanism; sign restrictions; structural VAR; US dollar real exchange rate |
| JEL: | F31 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7003&r=opm |
| By: | Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria |
| Abstract: | In mid-2008, the real effective exchange rate of the dollar was close to its minimum level for the past 4 decades. At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and current account deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, would contribute to a further accumulation of U.S. external liabilities. The paper discusses the tension between these two aspects of the dollar assessment, and what factors can help reconcile them. It focuses in particular on the terms of trade, adjustment lags, and measurement issues related to both the real effective exchange rate and the current account balance. |
| Keywords: | current account; real exchange rate; terms of trade |
| JEL: | F31 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7046&r=opm |
| By: | Chinn, Menzie David; Wei, Shang-Jin |
| Abstract: | The assertion that a flexible exchange rate regime would facilitate current account adjustment is often repeated in policy circles. In this paper, we compile a data set encompassing data for over 170 countries over the 1971-2005 period, and examine whether the rate of current account reversion depends upon the de facto degree of exchange rate fixity, as measured by two popular indices. We find that there is no strong, robust, or monotonic relationship between exchange rate regime flexibility and the rate of current account reversion, even after accounting for the degree of economic development, the degree of trade and capital account openness. We also find that the endogenous selection of exchange rate regimes does not explain the observed lack of correlation. |
| Keywords: | current account imbalances; fixed exchange rate; floating exchange rate; real exchange rate |
| JEL: | F3 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7076&r=opm |
| By: | Söderström, Ulf |
| Abstract: | I revisit the potential costs and benefits for Sweden of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) of the European Union. I first show that the Swedish business cycle since the mid-1990s has been closely correlated with the Euro area economies, suggesting that common shocks have been an important driving force of business cycles in Europe. However, evidence from an estimated model of the Swedish economy instead suggests that country-specific shocks have been important for fluctuations in the Swedish economy since 1993, implying that EMU membership could be costly. The model also indicates that the exchange rate has to a large extent acted to destabilize, rather than stabilize, the Swedish economy, pointing to the costs of independent monetary policy with a flexible exchange rate. Finally, counterfactual simulations of the model suggest that Swedish inflation and GDP growth might have been slightly higher if Sweden had been a member of EMU since the launch in 1999, but also that GDP growth might have been more volatile. The evidence is therefore not conclusive about whether or not participation in the monetary union would be advantageous for Sweden. |
| Keywords: | DSGE model; Monetary union; Open economy; Optimum Currency Area |
| JEL: | E42 E58 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7062&r=opm |
| By: | Felipe Meza (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM)); Antonio Carlos Urrutia (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM)) |
| Abstract: | Between 1988 and 2002, the real exchange rate in Mexico appreciated by 45%. We account for this movement in relative prices using a two sector, dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with tradable an non-tradable goods. The model allows us to identify the effect of the differential in productivity growth across sectors (the Balassa-Samuelson effect) from other types of shocks affecting the allocation of resources (terms of trade, migration remittances and international reserves accumulation). We find that productivity growth in the tradable sector and a decline in the real interest rate faced by Mexico in the international markets account for 70% of the real exchange rate appreciation. Our model is also consistent with the reallocation of capital and labor from tradable to non-tradable sectors. None of our results support a significant role for terms of trade, migration remittances or international reserves accumulation. |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cie:wpaper:0807&r=opm |
| By: | Tille, Cédric; van Wincoop, Eric |
| Abstract: | We develop a new theory of international capital flows based on dispersed information across individual investors. There is extensive evidence of information heterogeneity within and across countries, which has proven critical to understanding asset price behavior. We introduce information dispersion into an open economy dynamic general equilibrium portfolio choice model, and emphasize two implications for capital flows that are specific to the presence of dispersed information. First, gross and net capital flows become partially disconnected from publicly observed fundamentals. Second, capital flows (particularly gross flows) contain information about future fundamentals, even after controlling for current fundamentals. We find that these implications are quantitatively significant and consistent with data for industrialized countries. |
| Keywords: | information dispersion; international capital flows |
| JEL: | F32 F36 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6989&r=opm |
| By: | Coeurdacier, Nicolas; Kollmann, Robert; Martin, Philippe |
| Abstract: | Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable. We depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias: transaction costs that impede international diversification, and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing, so that there is little incentive to hold diversified portfolios. We show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: capital accumulation, shocks to the efficiency of physical investment, as well as international trade in stocks and bonds. In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade. The model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital flows. |
| Keywords: | capital accumulation; capital flows; current account; international equity and bond portfolios; terms of trade; valuation effects |
| JEL: | F2 F3 G1 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6902&r=opm |
| By: | Corsetti, Giancarlo; Konstantinou, Panagiotis T |
| Abstract: | The joint dynamics of US net output, consumption, and (valuation-adjusted) foreign assets and liabilities, characterized empirically following Lettau and Ludvigson [2004], is shown to be strikingly consistent with current account theory. While US consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks, these contribute considerably to the variation in net output and, even more so, in gross foreign positions, arguably smoothing temporary variations in returns. A single permanent shock – naturally interpreted as a productivity shock – raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust only gradually. This leads to persistent, procyclical external deficits but, interestingly, moves gross assets and liabilities in the same direction. |
| Keywords: | Consumption Smoothing; Current Account; International Adjustment Mechanism; Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account; Net Foreign Wealth; Permanent-Transitory Decomposition |
| JEL: | C32 E21 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7134&r=opm |
| By: | Francois, Joseph; Shiells, Clinton R. |
| Abstract: | We offer a duality-based methodology for incorporating multi-sector effects of international trade into open economy macroeconomic models, developing the concepts of the dynamic factor price equalization set and the integrated intertemporal equilibrium. Under this approach, the aggregate production function depends on output prices and factor endowment stocks. It preserves all of the structure of a standard GDP function from the trade theory literature. In a two-country version of the model considered below, we examine the properties of the dynamic factor price equalization set. If the global economy is initially outside of this set, the equations of motion will pull the economy back into this set. Inside the dynamic FPE set, factor prices are equalized internationally, and with identical tastes and technology, the economy can be regarded as a fully integrated world equilibrium in a dynamic sense (the integrated intertemporal equilibrium). In this equilibrium, all of the standard properties of a closed economy one-sector neoclassical growth model hold, ruling out cycles and chaos, and allowing us to characterize the evolution of international inequality and the persistence of productivity and endowment shocks. Working from the integrated intertemporal equilibrium, we identify properties of persistence linked to inequality and real economic shocks. Cross-country differences in per capita incomes and wealth, and the factor content of trading patterns, may persist over time and even into the new steady state. This provides yet another reason why we might observe lack of income convergence internationally. In addition, real shocks in one country may be transmitted to the other country through factor markets and product prices, and may have persistent effects into the steady-state as well. Outside the steady-state, the relative price of labor intensive goods/services also trends with the evolution of the capital stock. |
| Keywords: | Cross country income convergence; Neoclassical Models of Trade; Open economy growth |
| JEL: | F11 F41 F43 O47 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7065&r=opm |
| By: | Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Reichlin, Lucrezia |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries’ business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant change associated with the EMU can be detected. For the other countries, volatility has been historically higher and this has not changed in the last ten years. We also find that the aggregate euro area per-capita GDP growth since 1999 has been lower than what could have been predicted on the basis of historical experience and US observed developments. The gap between US and euro area GDP per capita level has been 30% on average since 1970 and there is no sign of catching up or of further widening. |
| Keywords: | euro area; European integration; European monetary union; international business cycles |
| JEL: | C5 E32 F2 F43 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7124&r=opm |
| By: | Artis, Michael J; Okubo, Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | The paper uses long-run GDP data for developed countries drawn from Maddison (2003) to generate deviation cycles for the period from 1870 to 2001. The cyclical deviates are examined for their bilateral cross-correlation values in three separate periods, those of the first globalization wave (1870 to 1914), the period of the “bloc economy” (1915 to 1959) and for the period of the second globalization (1960-2001). Cluster analysis is applied and the McNemar test is used to test for the relative coherence of alternative groupings of countries in the three periods. The bloc economy period emerges as one that features some well-defined sub-global clusters, where the second globalization period does not, the first globalization period lying between the two in this respect. The second globalization period shows a generally higher level of cross correlations and a lower variance than the other two periods. The features uncovered suggest that the second globalization period is indeed one that comprises a more inclusive world economy than ever before. |
| Keywords: | bloc economy; business cycle; cluster analysis; globalization; McNemar Test |
| JEL: | E32 F0 F15 F41 N10 |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7041&r=opm |
| By: | Adolfson, Malin; Laséen, Stefan; Lindé, Jesper; Svensson, Lars E O |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the transmission of shocks and the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative measures of the output gap in Ramses, the Riksbank's empirical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. The main results are, first, that the transmission of shocks depends substantially on the conduct of monetary policy, and second, that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept of potential output in the output gap between output and potential output is used in the loss function. If potential output is defined as a smooth trend this trade-off is much more pronounced compared to the case when potential output is defined as the output level that would prevail if prices and wages were flexible. |
| Keywords: | impulse responses; instrument rules; open-economy DSGE models; Optimal monetary policy; output gap; potential output |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7070&r=opm |
| By: | Heathcote, Jonathan; Perri, Fabrizio |
| Abstract: | In simple one-good international macro models, the presence of non-diversifiable labor income risk means that country portfolios should be heavily biased toward foreign assets. The fact that the opposite pattern of diversification is observed empirically constitutes the international diversification puzzle. We embed a portfolio choice decision in a frictionless two-country, two-good version of the stochastic growth model. In this environment, which is a workhorse for international business cycle research, we fully characterize equilibrium country portfolios. These are biased towards domestic assets, as in the data. Home bias arises because endogenous international relative price fluctuations make domestic assets a good hedge against non-diversifiable labor income risk. We then use our theory to link openness to trade to the level of diversification, and find that it offers a quantitatively compelling account for the patterns of international diversification observed across developed economies in recent years. |
| Keywords: | Country portfolios; Home bias; International business cycles |
| JEL: | F36 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6982&r=opm |
| By: | Goggin, Jean (ESRI); Siedschlag, Iulia (ESRI) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines patterns and factors underlying the international transmission of business cycles between Ireland and its trading partners over the period 1980-2007. We estimate a model of simultaneous equations using a panel of cross–country annual data where trade integration, sectoral specialisation and financial integration are considered endogenous. Our results suggest that deeper trade and financial integration had strong direct positive effects on the synchronisation of Irish business cycles with its trading partners. Sectoral specialisation and national competitiveness differentials were sources of cyclical divergence. Sectoral specialisation had however an indirect positive effect on business cycle synchronisation via its positive effect on trade and financial integration. The adoption of the euro has led to more synchronised business cycles between Ireland and its euro area trading partners. |
| JEL: | E32 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2009–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp279&r=opm |
| By: | Alho, Kari; Kaitila, Ville; Widgrén, Mika |
| Abstract: | Economic convergence of the new member states (NMS) of the EU towards the old EU countries (EU-15), not only in terms of real income, but also in nominal terms, is of paramount importance for the whole of the EU. We build a dynamic CGE model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, but modify and enlarge it with forward-looking investment, consumption, and labour mobility behaviour to address several other issues like welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we evaluate the impact of convergence on the EU-15 countries also, by endogenising offshoring and the related FDI flows from them to the NMS. Thereby we identify various effects of relocation and globalisation on the EU-15 enlarging the standard set of effects of globalisation and demonstrate the key role of their dynamic nature in the process of convergence. We find that in a general equilibrium setting fears of large adverse effects of a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMS are not well founded. In contrast, offshoring appears to be a win-win case for both the EU-15 and the NMS in terms of real income. The convergence of the NMS is fairly rapid, but will involve a persistent rapid inflation rate. |
| Keywords: | Convergence; EU-15; new member states; relocation |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F43 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7000&r=opm |
| By: | von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong |
| Abstract: | We present an analysis of the determinants of de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes based on a panel probit model with simultaneous equations. The model is estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The empirical results suggest a triangular structure of the model such that the choice of de facto regimes depends on the choice of de jure regimes but not vice versa. This gives rise to a novel interpretation of regime discrepancies. |
| Keywords: | de facto exchange rate regimes; developing countries; simultaneous equations |
| JEL: | C35 F33 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7006&r=opm |
| By: | Annicchiarico , Barbara; Piergallini, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | The adoption of a Taylor-type monetary policy rule and an inflation target for emerging market economies that choose a flexible exchange rate regime is often advocated. This paper investigates the issue of exchange rate determination when interest-rate feedback rules are implemented in a continuous-time optimizing model of a small open economy facing an imperfect global capital market. It is demonstrated that when a risk premium on external debt affects the monetary policy transmission mechanism, the Taylor principle is not a necessary condition for determinacy of equilibrium. On the other hand, it is shown that exchange rate dynamics critically depends on whether monetary policy is active or passive. |
| Keywords: | Risk Premium on Foreign Debt; Taylor Rules; Exchange Rate Dynamics. |
| JEL: | F32 E52 F31 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:13553&r=opm |
| By: | Imbs, Jean; Mejean, Isabelle |
| Abstract: | Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign varieties are small in macroeconomic data, and substantially larger in disaggregated studies. This may be an artifact of heterogeneity. We use disaggregated multilateral trade data to structurally identify elasticities of substitution in US goods. We spell out a partial equilibrium model to aggregate them adequately at the country level. We compare aggregate elasticities that impose equality across sectors, to estimates allowing for heterogeneity. The former are similar in value to conventional macroeconomic estimates; but they are more than twice larger -up to 7- with heterogeneity. The parameter is central to calibrated models in most of international economics. We discuss the difference our corrected estimate makes in various areas of international economics, including the dynamics of external balances, the international transmission of shocks, international portfolio choice and optimal monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Aggregation; Calibration; Global Imbalances; International Portfolio; International Transmission; Monetary Policy; Trade Elasticities |
| JEL: | F21 F32 F41 |
| Date: | 2009–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7177&r=opm |
| By: | Coeurdacier, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Two of the main puzzles in international economics are the consumption and the portfolio home biases. We solve for international equity portfolios in a two-country/two-good stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs in goods markets. We show that introducing trade costs, as suggested by Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000), is not sufficient to explain these two puzzles simultaneously. On the contrary, we find that trade costs create a foreign bias in portfolios for reasonable parameter values. This result is robust to the addition of non-tradable goods for standard calibrations of the preferences. |
| Keywords: | Home Bias; Portfolio Choice; Trade Costs |
| JEL: | F30 F36 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6991&r=opm |
| By: | Julián Messina; Chiara Strozzi; Jarkko Turunen |
| Abstract: | We study differences in the adjustment of aggregate real wages in the manufacturing sector over the business cycle across OECD countries, combining results from different data and dynamic methods. Summary measures of cyclicality show genuine cross-country heterogeneity even after controlling for the impact of data and methods. We find that more open economies and countries with stronger unions tend to have less pro-cyclical (or more counter-cyclical) wages. We also find a positive correlation between the cyclicality of real wages and employment, suggesting that policy complementarities may influence the adjustment of both quantities and prices in the labour market. |
| Keywords: | Real Wages, Business Cycle, Dynamic Correlation, Labour Market Institutions |
| JEL: | E32 J30 C10 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:028&r=opm |
| By: | Caballero, Ricardo; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier |
| Abstract: | In this paper we argue that the persistent global imbalances, the subprime crisis, and the volatile oil and asset prices that followed it, are tightly interconnected. They all stem from a global environment where sound and liquid financial assets are in scarce supply. Our story goes as follows: Global asset scarcity led to large capital flows toward the U.S. and to the creation of asset bubbles that eventually crashed. The crash in the real estate market was particularly complex from the point of view of asset shortages since it compromised the whole financial sector, and by so doing, closed many of the alternative saving vehicles. Thus, in its first phase, the crisis exacerbated the shortage of assets in the world economy, which triggered a partial recreation of the bubble in commodities and oil markets in particular. The latter led to an increase in petrodollars seeking financial assets in the U.S. Thus, rather than the typical destabilizing role played by capital outflows during financial crises, petrodollar flows became a source of stability for the U.S. The second phase of the crisis is more conventional and began to emerge toward the end of the summer of 2008. It became apparent then that the financial crisis would permeate the real economy and sharply slow down global growth. This slowdown worked to reverse the tight commodity market conditions required for a bubble to develop, ultimately destroying the commodity bubble. |
| JEL: | E0 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7064&r=opm |
| By: | Kose, Ayhan; Prasad, Eswar; Rogoff, Kenneth; Wei, Shang-Jin |
| Abstract: | We review the large literature on various economic policies that could help developing economies effectively manage the process of financial globalization. Our central findings indicate that policies promoting financial sector development, institutional quality and trade openness appear to help developing countries derive the benefits of globalization. Similarly, sound macroeconomic policies are an important prerequisite for ensuring that financial integration is beneficial. However, our analysis also suggests that the relationship between financial integration and economic policies is a complex one and that there are unavoidable tensions inherent in evaluating the risks and benefits associated with financial globalization. In light of these tensions, structural and macroeconomic policies often need to be tailored to take into account country specific circumstances to improve the risk-benefit tradeoffs of financial integration. Ultimately, it is essential to see financial integration not just as an isolated policy goal but as part of a broader package of reforms and supportive macroeconomic policies. |
| Keywords: | capital account liberalization; financial globalization |
| JEL: | F2 F3 |
| Date: | 2009–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7117&r=opm |
| By: | Claessens, Stijn; Kose, Ayhan; Terrones, Marco E. |
| Abstract: | We provide a comprehensive empirical characterization of the linkages between key macroeconomic and financial variables around business and financial cycles for 21 OECD countries over the period 1960–2007. In particular, we analyze the implications of 122 recessions, 112 (28) credit contraction (crunch) episodes, 114 (28) episodes of house price declines (busts), 234 (58) episodes of equity price declines (busts) and their various overlaps in these countries over the sample period. Our results indicate that interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables can play major roles in determining the severity and duration of recessions. Specifically, we find evidence that recessions associated with credit crunches and house price busts tend to be deeper and longer than other recessions. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; busts; credit crunches; equity prices; house prices; recessions |
| JEL: | E32 E44 E51 F42 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7085&r=opm |
| By: | Beetsma, Roel; Bovenberg, A Lans; Romp, Ward E |
| Abstract: | We explore intergenerational and international risk sharing in a general equilibrium multiple-country model with two-tier pensions systems. The exact design of the funded tier is key for the way in which risks are shared over the various generations. The laissez-faire market solution fails to provide an optimal allocation because the young cannot share in the risks. However, the existence of wage-indexed bonds combined with a pension system with a fully-funded second tier that pays defined wage-indexed benefits can reproduce the first best. If wage-indexed bonds are not available, mimicking the first best is not possible, except under special circumstances. We also explore whether national pension funds want to deviate from the first best by increasing domestic equity holdings. With wage-indexed bonds this incentive is absent, while there is indeed such an incentive when wage-indexed bonds do not exist. |
| Keywords: | defined wage-indexed benefits; funded pensions; overlapping generations; risk sharing; wage-indexed bonds |
| JEL: | E2 F42 G23 H55 |
| Date: | 2008–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7106&r=opm |