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on Open MacroEconomics |
| By: | Frederic S. Mishkin |
| Abstract: | The paper argues that many of the exaggerated claims that globalization has been an important factor in lowering inflation in recent years just do not hold up. Globalization does, however, have the potential to be stabilizing for individual economies and has been a key factor in promoting economic growth. The paper then examines four questions about the impact of globalization on the monetary transmission mechanism and arrives at the following answers: (1) Has globalization led to a decline in the sensitivity of inflation to domestic output gaps and thus to domestic monetary policy? No. (2) Are foreign output gaps playing a more prominent role in the domestic inflation process, so that domestic monetary policy has more difficulty stabilizing inflation? No. (3) Can domestic monetary policy still control domestic interest rates and so stabilize both inflation and output? Yes. (4) Are there other ways, besides possible influences on inflation and interest rates, in which globalization may have affected the transmission mechanism of monetary policy? Yes. |
| JEL: | E52 F41 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13948&r=opm |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti |
| Abstract: | The New Open Economy Macroeconomics refers to a vast body of literature embracing a new theoretical framework for policy analysis in open economy, with the goal of overcoming the limitations of the Mundell-Fleming model, while preserving the empirical wisdom and policy friendliness of traditional analysis. Starting in the early 1990s, NOEM contributions have developed general equilibrium models with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities, to reconsider conventional views on the transmission of monetary and exchange rate shocks; they have contributed to the design of optimal stabilization policies, identifying international dimensions of optimal monetary policy; they have raised issues in the desirability of international policy coordination. |
| Keywords: | Open economy models; exchange rates; stabilization policy; Mundell-Fleming |
| Date: | 2007–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2007/27&r=opm |
| By: | Yunus Aksoy; Hanno Lustig |
| Abstract: | This modified version of Salop's (1979) spatial competition model yields clear-cut predictions about the effects of exchange rate shocks on market structure and pass-through. Shocks within the band of inaction do not affect market structure. The upper bound of this range rises as the industry ratio of sunk to fixed costs increases. As fixed costs and product heterogeneity jointly increase, the lower bound drops. Outside of the range, depreciations cause one or several of those foreign brands closest to the home brand to leave. This decreases the overall responsiveness of prices to exchange rate shocks. Large appreciations induce entry and increase the elasticity of prices. This asymmetry implies larger positive than negative PPP deviations. When accounting for price changes in foreign markets, strategic pricing behavior is no longer sufficient to generate real exchange rate variability. Incomplete pass-through obtains if and only if the domestic firms have a smaller market share abroad. With large nominal exchange rate shocks hysteresis result obtains if and only if sunk costs are non-zero. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces9806&r=opm |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Philippe Martin; Paolo Pesenti |
| Abstract: | Most analyses of the macroeconomic adjustment required to correct global imbalances ignore net exports of new varieties of goods and services and do not account for firms'net entry in the product market. In this paper we revisit the macroeconomics of trade adjustment in the context of the classic 'transfer problem', using a model where the set of exportables, importables and nontraded goods is endogenous. We show that exchange rate movements associated with adjustment are dramatically lower when the above features are accounted for, relative to traditional macromodels. We also find that, for reasonable parameterizations, consumption and employment (hence welfare) are not highly sensitive to product differentiation, and change little regardless of whether adjustment occurs through movements in relative prices or quantities. This result warns against interpreting the size of real depreciation associated with trade rebalancing as an index of macroeconomic distress. |
| Keywords: | transfer problem, current account, global imbalances, extensive margin |
| Date: | 2008–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2008/01&r=opm |
| By: | Giancarlo Corsetti; Luca Dedola; Sylvain Leduc |
| Abstract: | We analyze the policy trade-offs generated by local currency price stability of imports in economies where upstream producers strategically interact with downstream firms selling the final goods to consumers. We study the effects of staggered price setting at the downstream level on the optimal price (and markup) chosen by upstream producers and show that downstream price movements affect the desired markup of upstream producers, magnifying their price response to shocks. We revisit the international dimensions of optimal monetary policy, unveiling an argument in favour of consumer price stability as the main prescription for monetary policy. Since stable consumer prices feed back into a low volatility of markups among upstream producers, this contains inefficient deviations from the law of one price at the border. However, efficient stabilization of different CPI components will not generally result into perfect stabilization of headline inflation. National policies optimally respond to the same shocks in a similar way, thus containing volatility of the terms of trade, but not necessarily of the real exchange rate. The latter will be more volatile, among other things, the larger the home bias in expenditure and the content of local inputs in consumer goods. |
| Keywords: | optimal monetary policy, price discrimination, price dispersion, exchange rate pass through, real exchange rates |
| JEL: | F31 F33 F41 |
| Date: | 2007–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2007/26&r=opm |
| By: | Romain Restout |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the consequences of introducing a monopolistic competition in an intertemporal two-sector small open economy model which produces traded and non traded goods. It is assumed that the non traded sector is the locus of the imperfectly competition. Our analysis shows that markup depends on the composition of aggregate non traded demand and is therefore endogenously determined in the model. Calibrating the model with OECD parameters, the effects of fiscal and technological shocks are simulated. Our findings are as follows. First, the model is consistent with the observed saving-investment correlations found in the data. Second, unlike the perfectly framework and in accordance with empirical studies, fiscal shocks cause real appreciation of the relative price of non traded goods, which in turn enlarges the responses of current account and investment. Third, the model is consistent with the empirical report that technological shocks result in current account deficits and investment rises. Fourth, the strength of the relative price appreciation following sector productivity differentials, i.e. the Balassa-Samuelson effect, is affected by the monopolistic competition hypothesis. Assume perfect competition when it is not, biases upward estimates of the Balassa-Samuelson effect. |
| Keywords: | Monopolistic Competition, Fiscal Policy, Productivity |
| JEL: | E20 E62 F31 F41 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2008-9&r=opm |
| By: | Michael Plante (Indiana University Bloomington) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines exchange rate management issues when a small open economy is hit by an exogenous oil price shock. In this model consumer durables play an important role in the demand for oil and oil based products as opposed to the traditional role of oil as a factor of production. When prices are sticky, oil price shocks lead to reduced output, lower inflation, and real exchange rate deprecation. These recessionary effects occur whether or not oil is in the production function because of the close relationship between consumer durables and oil. Tentative results suggest that flexible exchange rates produce smaller output losses and less volatile inflation in the non-tradables sector than fixed exchange rates but at the cost of front-loading real exchange rate movements. |
| Keywords: | oil, durables, exchange rates |
| JEL: | E31 F41 E52 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inu:caeprp:2008-007&r=opm |
| By: | Laakkonen, Helinä; Lanne, Markku |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of positive and negative macroeconomic US and European news announcements in different phases of the business cycle on the highfrequency volatility of the EUR/USD exchange rate. The results suggest that in general bad news increases volatility more than good news. The news effects also depend on the state of the economy: bad news increases volatility more in good times than in bad times, while there is no difference between the volatility effects of good news in bad and good times. |
| Keywords: | Volatility; News; Nonlinearity; Smooth Transition Models |
| JEL: | C32 G15 F31 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8296&r=opm |
| By: | Christopher P. Ball; Martha Cruz-Zuniga; Claude Lopez; Javier Reyes |
| Abstract: | Remittances are private monetary transfers yet the rapidly growing literature on the subject seems to forget their monetary nature and thus ignore the role that exchange rate regimes play in determining the effect remittances have on a recipient economy. This paper uses a theoretical model and panel vector autoregression techniques to explore the role exchange rate regimes play in understanding the effect of remittances. The analysis considers yearly and quarterly data for seven Latin American countries. Our theoretical model predicts that remittances should be inflationary and generate an increase in the domestic money supply under a fixed regime but deflationary and generate no change in the money supply under a flexible regime. These differences are borne out in the data. This adds to our understanding of the true effect of remittances on economies and suggests results existent in the literature that do not control for regimes may be biased. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cin:ucecwp:2008-03&r=opm |
| By: | Leopoldo Yanes (School of Economics, The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | That many industries exhibit highly concentrated market structures, even at the global level, calls for trade theoretic analyses which can accommodate this fact. We present a two-country, general equilibrium analysis in which high concentration levels can be sustained through the interaction between R&D and market structure, whilst emphasizing the effects of trade and industrial policy on wages and welfare. The world economy is characterized by asymmetric initial conditions and populations. If initial conditions are very different, freetrade reduces wages in a backward economy, relative to autarky. However, the advanced economy always achieves higher wages through trade. Welfare gains from trade arise when economies are either very similar or very different. In the intermediate case, when initial conditions are not too different, and the advanced economy’s population is not very large, the backward economy loses from trade, while the advanced economy gains. A compensation mechanism is feasible and would ensure that no nation loses from trade. The analysis provides formal criteria for the choice of trade partners and the formation of trade blocs. Moreover, industrial policy (an R&D subsidy) is shown to be neutral or ineffective, in the sense that it does not affect any real magnitudes. |
| Keywords: | International trade, industrial policy, product quality, R&D, market structure, initial conditions |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:361&r=opm |
| By: | Hilde Vandenbussche; Jozef Konings |
| Abstract: | In this paper we first develop a simple theoretical framework which shows that important differences exist between national and international competition and their effect on national labour markets. National competition refers to a reduction of monopoly power in the product market through improved market contestability and market access, which is the responsibility of competition authorities. International competition refers to a reduction in product market competition as a result of trade liberalization. We show that when the domestic market is unionized, national entry (FDI or domestic entry) has very different effects on the national labour market than international entry (imports in the relevant product market). One result we obtain is that national competition need not increase domestic employment while trade competition need not lower domestic employment. Our analysis has at least two important implications. First, geographic location of competitors matters when institutional settings like trade unions are country specific. Second, a change in competition policy is likely to affect labour markets differently than a change in trade policy. The results also indicate that apart from location, market structure and the level at which wages are bargained over (firm or sector level) matter. In a further step the theoretical predictions we derive, are tested on Belgian company accounts data supplemented with data from a postal survey. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:ces9821&r=opm |