|
on Neuroeconomics |
| By: | Ilciukas, Julius (University of Amsterdam); Lundborg, Petter (Lund University); Plug, Erik (University of Amsterdam); Rasmussen, Astrid Würtz (Aarhus University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of having siblings on school outcomes of first-born children. By leveraging exogenous variation in first and later IVF treatments, we construct an improved instrumental variable estimator that tackles exclusion violations and identifies causal effects for compliers and always takers with siblings from later treatments. With nationwide school surveys linked to administrative records, we find that first-born children with and without siblings perform equally well on nationwide reading and math tests, are equally conscientious, agreeable, and emotionally stable, and report the same levels of school well-being. We conclude that the cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes of school-aged first-born children neither benefit nor suffer much from having siblings. |
| Keywords: | cognitive and non-cognitive development, siblings |
| JEL: | I21 J13 C26 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17641 |
| By: | Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa (University of Turin); Kuehn, Zoë (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We use data on Latino children in the United States who have been randomly assigned calculation tests in English or Spanish to check for the so-called bilingual advantage, the notion that knowing more than one language improves individuals' other cognitive skills. After controlling for different characteristics of children and their parents, as well as children's time in the US, we find a bilingual advantage among children who read or write in English and Spanish but not for those who only speak or understand both languages. In particular, bilingual readers or writers perform one fourth to one third of a standard deviation better than monolingual children, equal to learning gains of an additional school year. Applying the Oster test, we find that selection on unobservables would need to be 3-4 times stronger than selection on observables to explain away our results. The bilingual advantage is stronger among children in two-parent households with siblings and for those at the upper end of the ability distribution. |
| Keywords: | bilingualism, cognitive skills, measurement, selection on observables and unobservables |
| JEL: | I2 I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17626 |
| By: | Erkmen G. Aslim; Rafiuddin Najam; Erdal Tekin |
| Abstract: | This study examines the long-term effects of prenatal exposure to war violence on cognitive and developmental outcomes, focusing on children in Afghanistan, a country deeply affected by prolonged violent conflict. Using data from the 2022 Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and geo-referenced information on violent incidents, we estimate the effects of prenatal exposure to civilian casualties on educational attainment, math performance, and functional and disciplinary outcomes. Our findings reveal significant gender disparities, with girls exposed in utero demonstrating substantially worse cognitive and developmental outcomes compared to boys, including lower school attendance, reduced math performance, and increased functional difficulties. These adverse effects appear to be driven by disruptions in foundational cognitive skills during critical developmental periods. Post-birth exposure, while negatively affecting both genders, has less pronounced and consistent effects. These results highlight the intergenerational consequences of war conflict, emphasizing the need for interventions that address the unique vulnerabilities of children in conflict-affected regions. |
| JEL: | D74 I15 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33398 |
| By: | Fernando Perez-Cruz; Hyun Song Shin |
| Abstract: | When posed with a logical puzzle that demands reasoning about the knowledge of others and about counterfactuals, large language models (LLMs) display a distinctive and revealing pattern of failure. The LLM performs flawlessly when presented with the original wording of the puzzle available on the internet but performs poorly when incidental details are changed, suggestive of a lack of true understanding of the underlying logic. Our findings do not detract from the considerable progress in central bank applications of machine learning to data management, macro analysis and regulation/supervision. They do, however, suggest that caution should be exercised in deploying LLMs in contexts that demand rigorous reasoning in economic analysis. |
| Date: | 2024–01–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:83 |