| Abstract: |
Behavioral science has witnessed an explosion in the number of biases
identified by behavioral scientists, to more than 200 at present. This article
identifies the 10 most important behavioral biases for project management.
First, we argue it is a mistake to equate behavioral bias with cognitive bias,
as is common. Cognitive bias is half the story; political bias the other half.
Second, we list the top 10 behavioral biases in project management: (1)
strategic misrepresentation, (2) optimism bias, (3) uniqueness bias, (4) the
planning fallacy, (5) overconfidence bias, (6) hindsight bias, (7)
availability bias, (8) the base rate fallacy, (9) anchoring, and (10)
escalation of commitment. Each bias is defined, and its impacts on project
management are explained, with examples. Third, base rate neglect is
identified as a primary reason that projects underperform. This is supported
by presentation of the most comprehensive set of base rates that exist in
project management scholarship, from 2,062 projects. Finally, recent findings
of power law outcomes in project performance are identified as a possible
first stage in discovering a general theory of project management, with more
fundamental and more scientific explanations of project outcomes than found in
conventional theory. |