|
on Neuroeconomics |
|
Issue of 2013‒09‒25
136 papers chosen by |
| By: | Nielsen, Ulrik H. (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Tyran, Jean-Robert (Department of Economics, University of Vienna); Wengström, Erik (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We use the strategy method to classify subjects into cooperator types in a large-scale online Public Goods Game and find that free riders spend more time on making their decisions than conditional cooperators and other cooperator types. This result is robust to reversing the framing of the game and is not driven by free riders lacking cognitive ability, confusion, or natural swiftness in responding. Our results suggest that conditional cooperation serves as a norm and that free riders need time to resolve a moral dilemma. |
| Keywords: | Response Time; Free Riding; Public Goods; Experiment |
| JEL: | C70 C90 D03 |
| Date: | 2013–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2013_029&r=neu |
| By: | Susilo, Yusak O. (KTH); Avineri, Erel (Afeka) |
| Abstract: | The amount of time individuals and households spend in travelling and in out-of-door-activities can be seen as a result of complex daily interactions between household members, influenced by opportunities and constraints which vary from day to day. Extending the deterministic concept of travel time budget to a stochastic term, and applying a Stochastic Frontier Model to a dataset from the 2004 UK National Travel Survey, this study examines the hidden stochastic limit and the variations of the individual and household travel time and out-of-home activity duration– concepts associated with travel time budget. The results show that most individuals may not have reached the limit of their ability to travel and may still be able to spend further time in travel activities. The analysis of the model outcomes and distribution tests show that among a range of employment statuses, only full-time workers’ out-of-home time expenditure has reached its limit. Also observed is the effect of having children in the household: children reduce the flexibility of hidden constraints of adult household members’ out-of-home time, thus reducing their ability to be further engaged with out-of-home activities. Even when out-of-home trips are taken into account in the analysis, the model shows that the dependent children’s in-home responsibility reduces the ability of an individual to travel to and to be engaged with out-of-home activities. This study also suggests that, compared with the individual travel time spent, the individual out-of-home time expenditure may perform as a better budget indicator in drawing the constraints of individual space-time prisms. |
| Keywords: | Travel time budget; Household structure; Stochastic frontier model; UK national travel survey |
| JEL: | O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_019&r=neu |
| By: | Marek Hudík |
| Abstract: | The fact that any two choices are necessarily asynchronous raises the question of whether some alternative x at moment t remains the same alternative x at moment t + 1. It is argued that this question cannot be answered without taking into account the decision-maker’s perception of the choice problem. Consequently, an objective description of a choice problem is impossible for each description involves an interpretation. A definition of sameness is provided and an extension of the standard choice model is suggested. The problem of the possibility of different perceptions of the decision-maker and the observer is emphasized |
| Keywords: | sameness, categorization, internal consistency, choice theory, indifference, framing, subjectivism |
| JEL: | B40 D01 D03 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:02-2013&r=neu |
| By: | Mehmet Gurdal; Joshua B. Miller; Aldo Rustichini |
| Abstract: | We provide experimental evidence that subjects blame others based on events they are not responsible for. In our experiment an agent chooses between a lottery and a safe asset; payment from the chosen option goes to a principal who then decides how much to allocate between the agent and a third party. We observe widespread blame: regardless of their choice, agents are blamed by principals for the outcome of the lottery, an event they are not responsible for. We provide an explanation of this apparently irrational behavior with a delegated-expertise principal-agent model, the subjects’ salient perturbation of the environment. JEL Classification Numbers: C92; D63; C79. Keywords: Experiments; Rationality; Fairness |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:494&r=neu |
| By: | Matsuki, Jun; Tadenuma, Koichi |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider a natural procedure of decision-making, called a “Grouping Choice Method”, which leads to a kind of bounded rational choices. In this procedure a decision-maker (DM) first divides the set of available alternatives into some groups and in each group she chooses the best element (winner) for her preference relation. Then, among the winners in the first round, she selects the best one as her final choice. We characterize Grouping Choice Methods in three different ways. First, we show that a choice function is a Grouping Choice Method if and only if it is a Rational Shortlist Method (Manzini and Mariotti, 2007) in which the first rationale is transitive. Second, Grouping Choice Methods are axiomatically characterized by means of a new axiom called Elimination, in addition to two well-known axioms, Expansion and Weak WARP (Manzini and Mariotti, 2007). Third, Grouping Choice Methods are also characterized by a weak version of Path Independence. |
| Keywords: | grouping of alternatives, preference, bounded rationality |
| JEL: | D01 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2013-08&r=neu |
| By: | Luca Benati; Thomas A. Lubik |
| Abstract: | We use a Bayesian time-varying parameter structural VAR with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in both the reduced-form relationship between vacancies and the unemployment rate, and in their relationship conditional on permanent and transitory output shocks, in the post-WWII United States. Evidence points towards similarities and differences between the Great Recession and the Volcker disinflation, and wide-spread time variation along two key dimensions. First, the slope of the Beveridge curve exhibits a large extent of variation from the mid-1960s on. It is also notably pro-cyclical, whereby the gain is positively correlated with the transitory component of output. The evolution of the slope of the Beveridge curve during the Great Recession is very similar to its evolution during the Volcker recession in terms of both its magnitude and its time profile. Second, both the Great Inflation episode and the subsequent Volcker disinflation are characterized by a significantly larger negative correlation between the reduced-form innovations to vacancies and the unemployment rate than the rest of the sample period. Those years also exhibit a greater cross-spectral coherence between the two series at business-cycle frequencies. This suggests that they are driven by common shocks. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-12&r=neu |
| By: | Andersson, Ola (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Holm, Håkan J. (Lund University); Tyran, Jean-Robert (University of Vienna); Wengström, Erik (Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We study risk taking on behalf of others, both with and without potential losses. A large-scale incentivized experiment is conducted with subjects randomly drawn from the Danish population. On average, decision makers take the same risks for other people as for themselves when losses are excluded. In contrast, when losses are possible, decisions on behalf of others are more risky. Using structural estimation, we show that this increase in risk stems from a decrease in loss aversion when others are affected by their choices. |
| Keywords: | Risk taking; Loss aversion; Experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D03 D81 G02 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0976&r=neu |
| By: | Salustri, Andrea |
| Abstract: | The article sheds light on virtual networks’ capability of driving landscape changes, both at epistemological level and at geographical level. “Living in” the landscape brings out the main drivers of change at individual level, while the ICTs are offering complementary places, with respect to those ones already existing, for increasing people’s role in sharing values and meanings. Then, common visions might emerge and “inform” landscape policies, indirectly influencing the meaning of wellbeing. Specifically, the socioeconomic theory might constitute a missing link between regulatory issues and technological achievements, enhancing and combining the new opportunities for participation offered by the European Landscape Convention, and by the widespread diffusion of social networks on the web. Indeed, “living in” the landscape inspires a plurality of visions that people are able to describe and share on the web or send directly to the interested institutions. Geographers might collect these issues and explore the landscape by living in it in order to produce “ethic visions”. Integrated with political and economic issues using the Regulation Impact Analysis (RIA), their contents might contribute to inform landscape transformation policies. Landscape policies might be participated also in the implementation phase, involving people in the fund raising activities and delegating the realization of some interventions to the spontaneous action of the interested citizens and firms. More participation at political and at social level might strengthen the sense of community reinforcing the narratives that connect the human and natural elements of landscape, integrating equity and sustainability in the traditional meaning of wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | European Landscape Convention, participation, crowdfunding, crowdsourcing |
| JEL: | R58 Z13 |
| Date: | 2013–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49864&r=neu |
| By: | Marek Hudík |
| Abstract: | The model of economic man is either empirically testable and false, or it is non-testable and always true. The fact that neither position is entirely satisfactory is called Macaulay’s problem. This paper first reviews and criticizes various attitudes toward this problem and then argues that Macaulay’s problem is a pseudoproblem, because it assumes that the explicandum of the economic man model is individual behavior. Contrary to this assumption it is argued that the model attempts to explain changes of people’s behavior on an aggregate level in response to changes in constraints. The paper posits that all the studied attitudes pertaining to Macaulay’s problem can be reinterpreted and, to a great extent, reconciled in light of this view. It is also argued that this view helps to explain why the usual criticisms of the economic man model miss the point. A method for effective criticism is suggested |
| Keywords: | economic man, “as if” explanations, apriorism, rational choice, methodology of economics, empirical content of theories |
| JEL: | B41 D01 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:01-2013&r=neu |
| By: | Thilo A. Schmitt; Desislava Chetalova; Rudi Sch\"afer; Thomas Guhr |
| Abstract: | The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this problem is amenable to be treated with approaches developed in statistical physics. We introduce the idea of ensemble averaging and thereby uncover generic features of credit risk. We then show that the often advertised concept of diversification, i.e., reducing the risk by distributing it, is deeply flawed when it comes to credit risk. The risk of extreme losses remain due to the ever present correlations, implying a substantial and persistent intrinsic danger to the financial system. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5245&r=neu |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Trippl , Michaela (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to examine conceptually and empirically how innovative firms combine knowledge (1) provided by different sources, (2) accessed at different spatial scales, and (3) acquired through different channels. We add to the conceptual debate by contrasting and synthesizing the perspectives offered on these issues by four key concepts, namely the local buzz and global pipelines argument, the knowledge base approach, the notions of STI and DUI modes of innovation as well as the regional innovation systems concept. The empirical part of the article contains an analysis of knowledge sourcing activities and knowledge combinations employed by 181 firms belonging to the Austrian automotive supplier industry. Our findings reveal that it is, indeed, combinations of knowledge sourced from different partners located at different spatial scales and acquired through different channels that are relevant. However, it is particular knowledge combinations that dominate while others are negligible. Austrian automotive supplier firms combine knowledge provided by customers with knowledge inputs from a variety of other sources. Most of the combinations involve the international level combined with the regional and/or national level. Finally, firms combine spillovers with a variety of other channels to acquire innovation-relevant knowledge. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Knowledge Bases; Regional Innovation System; Geography; Automotive |
| JEL: | D83 O30 R10 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_023&r=neu |
| By: | Musselwhite, Charles B.A. (University of the West of England); Avineri, Erel (Afeka); Susilo, Yusak O. (KTH); Bhattachary, Darren (TNS BMRB) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the reported research was to examine the perceptions of road user safety amongst different road users and examine the link between attitudes, empathy and skill in motorcycle safety behaviour. Motorcyclists were perceived by the study participants, members of the public at four different locations at the UK (including motorcyclists and non-motorcyclists), as a group be at a high risk of accidents on the road. This was due to perceived behavioural characteristics of motorcyclists – who were viewed as ‘thrill seekers’ – as well as observed behaviours on the road. This, coupled with the physical vulnerability and excessive speeds, meant that motorbike driving was considered by the study participants as the least safe form of road use. There was broad agreement that motorcycling was dangerous as a whole, but not all motorcyclists were necessarily risky riders. The issue of ‘competitive space’ emerged between car drivers and motorcyclists in particular and it was suggested that there was a lack of mutual awareness and considerations between the two groups. Generally, greatest empathy comes from drivers who are motorcyclists themselves. Engineering, education, enforcement interventions were investigated. These were aimed at two main areas: normalising safer driving behaviours for motorcyclists and increasing awareness of bikes for motorists—particularly in relation to reducing speed limits at urban junctions. Finally, the idea of risk mapping and reduced speed limits on rural roads was seen as potentially effective—particularly as certain motorcyclists highlighted that they changed their riding behaviours by increasing speed and taking greater risks on these roads. |
| Keywords: | Attitudes; Risk; Motorcycle; Qualitative; Shared space; Empathy |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_021&r=neu |
| By: | Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713); Jean-Fabrice Lebraty (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713) |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, forecasting what will happen in economic environments plays a crucial role. We showed that in PET market how a neuro-fuzzy hybrid model can assist the managers in decision-making. In this research, the target is to forecast the same item through another intelligent tool which obeys the evolutionary processing mechanisms. Again, the item for prediction here is PET (Poly Ethylene Terephthalate) which is the raw material for textile industries and it is highly sensitive against oil price fluctuations and also some other factors such as the demand and supply ratio. The main idea is coming through AHIS model which was presented by Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli and J.F. Lebraty in 2013. In this communication, the hybrid module is substituted with genetic programming. Finally, the simulation has been conducted and compared to three different answers which were presented before the results show that Genetic programming results (acting like hybrid model) which support both Fuzzy Systems and Neural Networks, satisfy the research question considerably. |
| Keywords: | Efficient Market Hypothesis; Financial Forecasting; Chemicals; Artificial Intelligence; Genetic Programming; Decision Support System; Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy Model. |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00859457&r=neu |
| By: | Paula Andrea Potes Ruiz (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes); Bernard Kamsu Foguem (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes); Daniel Noyes (LGP - Laboratoire Génie de Production - Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Tarbes) |
| Abstract: | Distributed environments, technological evolution, outsourcing market and information technology (IT) are factors that considerably influence current and future industrial maintenance management. Repairing and maintaining the plants and installations requires a better and more sophisticated skill set and continuously updated knowledge. Today, maintenance solutions involve increasing the collaboration of several experts to solve complex problems. These solutions imply changing the requirements and practices for maintenance; thus, conceptual models to support multidisciplinary expert collaboration in decision making are indispensable. The objectives of this work are as follows: (i) knowledge formalization of domain vocabulary to improve the communication and knowledge sharing among a number of experts and technical actors with Conceptual Graphs (CGs) formalism, (ii) multi-expert knowledge management with the Transferable Belief Model (TBM) to support collaborative decision making, and (iii) maintenance problem solving with a variant of the Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) mechanism with a process of solving new problems based on the solutions of similar past problems and integrating the experts' beliefs. The proposed approach is applied for the maintenance management of the illustrative case study. |
| Keywords: | Collaborative decision making;Experienced knowledge;Transferable belief model;Case-based reasoning;Maintenance management |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00861829&r=neu |
| By: | David L. Fuller; Marianna Kudlyak; Damba Lkhagvasuren |
| Abstract: | We construct a multi-sector search and matching model where the unemployed receive idiosyncratic productivity shocks that make working in certain sectors more productive than in the others. Agents must decide which sector to search in and face moving costs when leaving their current sector for another. In this environment, unemployment is associated with an additional risk: low future wages if mobility costs preclude search in the appropriate sector. This introduces a new role for unemployment benefits—productivity insurance while unemployed. Analytically, we characterize two competing effects of benefits on productivity, a moral hazard effect and a consumption effect. In a stylized quantitative analysis, we show that the consumption effect dominates, so that unemployment benefits increase per-worker productivity. We also analyze the welfare-maximizing benefit level and find that it decreases as moving costs increase. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-11&r=neu |
| By: | Gilles De Truchis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Benjamin Keddad (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)) |
| Abstract: | Two integrated financial markets are generally subjected to common shocks revealing that commonalities in fundamentals drive the underlying return processes. In such a case, volatilities should share a long-run component although their transitory components might temporary diverge. Accordingly, we investigate financial integration in East Asian by analyzing the co-persistent nature of their integrated volatilities. Using recent fractional cointegration techniques, we find that volatilities of several markets converge in long-run to a common stochastic equilibrium. Our results reveal that a global integration process drives the most developed markets of the region, while no evidence of co-persistence appears between emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | integrated volatility; co-persistence; fractional cointegration; East Asian stock markets; financial integration |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00862256&r=neu |
| By: | Michael Dotsey; Robert G. King; Alexander L. Wolman |
| Abstract: | In the last ten years there has been an explosion of empirical work examining price setting behavior at the micro level. The work has in turn challenged existing macro models that attempt to explain monetary nonneutrality, because these models are generally at odds with much of the micro price data. In response, economists have developed a second generation of sticky-price models that are state dependent and that include both fixed costs of price adjustment and idiosyncratic shocks. Nonetheless, some ambiguity remains about the extent of monetary nonneutrality that can be attributed to costly price adjustment. Our paper takes a step toward eliminating that ambiguity. |
| Keywords: | Pricing ; Pricing - Mathematical models |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-35&r=neu |
| By: | Aguiar, Angel |
| Abstract: | From time to time, members of the GTAP network compare GTAP data with official statistics from national and international sources. This has recently been done for the GDP statistics in GTAP, v.8 (Wang et al., 2013), suggesting that there were significant discrepancies between GTAP statistics and official statistics. The purpose of this memorandum is to explain the reason for these apparent discrepancies and to demonstrate that the GTAP v.8 GDP statistics are indeed consistent with international macroeconomic source data. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:resmem:4290&r=neu |
| By: | Oliver de Groot; Fédéric Holm-Hadulla; Nadine Leiner-Killinger |
| Abstract: | Do capital markets impose fiscal discipline on governments? We investigate the responses of fiscal variables to a change in the interest rate paid by governments on their debt in a panel of 14 European countries over four decades. To this end, we estimate a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, using sign restrictions via the penalty function method of Mountford and Uhlig (2009) to identify structural cost of borrowing shocks. Our baseline estimation shows that a 1 percentage point rise in the cost of borrowing leads to a cumulative improvement of the primary balance-to-GDP ratio of approximately 2 percentage points over 10 years, with the fiscal response becoming significantly evident only two years after the shock. We also find that the bulk of fiscal adjustment takes place via a rise in government revenue rather than a cut in primary expenditure. The size of the total fiscal adjustment, however, is insufficient to avoid the gross government debt-to-GDP ratio from rising as a consequence of the shock. Sub-dividing our sample, we also find that for countries participating in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) the primary balance response to a cost of borrowing shock was stronger in the period after 1992 (the year in which the Maastricht Treaty was signed) than prior to 1992. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-59&r=neu |
| By: | Aurélien Baillon; Han Bleichrodt; Alessandra Cillo |
| Abstract: | We performed a new test of transitivity based on individual measurements of the main intransitive choice models in decision under uncertainty. Our test is tailor-made and, therefore, more likely to detect violations of transitivity than previous tests. In spite of this, we observed only few intransitivities and we could not reject the hypothesis that these were due to random error. A possible explanation for the poor predictive performance of the intransitive choice models is that they only allow for interactions between acts, but exclude within-act interactions by retaining the assumption that preferences are separable overstates of nature. Prospect theory, which relaxes separability but retains transitivity, predicted choices significantly better than the nontransitive choice models. We conclude that descriptively realistic models need to allow for within-act interactions, but may retain transitivity. Subject classifications: Utility/preference: Estimation. Decision analysis: Risk. Area of review: Decision Analysis. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:496&r=neu |
| By: | Persson, Maria (Department of Economics, Lund University); Wilhelmsson, Fredrik (AgriFood Economics Centre, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Since at least the 1960s, the European Union (EU) has offered various kinds of non-reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries. Originally, these trade preferences had at least two policy goals: (i) to increase export volumes for developing countries and thereby boost their export earnings, and (ii) to facilitate export diversification. While extensive research has confirmed that the first of these goals is typically met, the second goal seems to have been largely forgotten by researchers as well as in policy circles. The aim of this paper is therefore to analyse the impact of the EU’s non-reciprocal trade preferences for developing countries on export diversification. Our estimation results suggest that some trade preference programs, such as the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP), are associated with increasing ranges of export products. By contrast, preferences offered to Mediterranean countries typically have no significant effects, and African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) preferences actually have negative effects toward the end of our time period, suggesting that ACP countries may respond to preferences by specializing into fewer goods. |
| Keywords: | Export diversification; non-reciprocal trade preferences; GSP; ACP; EU |
| JEL: | F13 F15 O24 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2013_032&r=neu |
| By: | Lyons, Glenn (University of the West of England); Jain , Juliet (University of the West of England); Susilo , Yusak O. (KTH); Atkins, Steve |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a unique insight into aspects of stability and change regarding the travel time use of rail passengers in Great Britain between 2004 and 2010. Empirical evidence is presented on how rail passengers spend their time, how worthwhile they consider their time use to be, the extent of advance planning of their time use and how equipped for time use they are in terms of the items they have to hand when they travel. The results reveal a consistent dominance of reading for leisure, window gazing/people watching and working/studying as favoured travel time activities. Over the six year period the availability and use of mobile technologies has increased. Listening to music in particular has doubled in its incidence suggesting an increasing capacity for travellers to personalise the public space of the railway carriage. Most notably the analysis reveals a substantial increase in the proportion of travellers overall making very worthwhile use of their time. |
| Keywords: | Travel time use; Multitasking; Rail travel; Value of time; Mobile technologies |
| JEL: | R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_017&r=neu |
| By: | Hansen, Teis (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, economic geographers stress geographical proximity’s positive impact on collaboration processes. Recently, effects of cognitive, organisational, social and institutional proximity dimensions have been emphasised. This paper examines the relations between geography and these non-spatial dimensions by distinguishing two mechanisms: the substitution mechanism, where non-spatial forms of proximity substitute for geographical proximity, and the overlap mechanism, where geographical proximity facilitates non-spatial proximity. The two mechanisms’ importance is analysed in collaborative innovation projects in the Danish cleantech industry. Regression models are complemented by a qualitative analysis of the relationship between the geographical and institutional dimensions, which is the only relation where the substitution mechanism is of little importance. |
| Keywords: | Proximity; cleantech; collaboration; knowledge linkages; innovation |
| JEL: | L69 O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–05–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_018&r=neu |
| By: | Eric Beutner; Janina Schweizer; Antoon Pelsser |
| Abstract: | The Least Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) method is widely applied to solve stochastic optimal control problems, such as pricing American-style options. A central part of LSMC is the approximation of conditional expectations across each time-step. Conventional algorithms regress the value function at the end of the time-step on a set of basis functions, which aremeasurable with respect to the information available at the beginning of the time-step. The corresponding regression error has two sources: an approximation error due to the finite number of basis functions, and a projection error due to the projection onto the coarser filtration at the beginning of the interval. The convergence speed for the conventional algorithms is determined by the projection error component, which converges relatively slowly. Glasserman and Yu (2002) propose the Regress-Later method, wherein the value function at the end of the time-step is regressed on a set of basis functions, which aremeasurable with respect to the information available at the end of the time-step. The conditional expectation across the time-step is then computed analytically for each basis function. We show in this paper that by using Regress-Later the projection error component is removed. This implies that the Regress Later method has the potential of converging significantly faster than the conventional algorithms. We provide sufficient conditions for achieving fast convergence on compact and non-compact sets and we give an explicit example. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5274&r=neu |
| By: | Pierre Blanc; R\'emy Chicheportiche; Jean-Philippe Bouchaud |
| Abstract: | We decompose, within an ARCH framework, the daily volatility of stocks into overnight and intraday contributions. We find, as perhaps expected, that the overnight and intraday returns behave completely differently. For example, while past intraday returns affect equally the future intraday and overnight volatilities, past overnight returns have a weak effect on future intraday volatilities (except for the very next one) but impact substantially future overnight volatilities. The exogenous component of overnight volatilities is found to be close to zero, which means that the lion's share of overnight volatility comes from feedback effects. The residual kurtosis of returns is small for intraday returns but infinite for overnight returns. We provide a plausible interpretation for these findings, and show that our IntraDay/Overnight model significantly outperforms the standard ARCH framework based on daily returns for Out-of-Sample predictions. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5806&r=neu |
| By: | Anne-Catherine Guio; Erik Marlier |
| Abstract: | Guio, Gordon and Marlier (2012) have proposed a theory based analytical framework for developing robust (i.e. suitable, reliable, valid and additive) aggregate indicators that could be used for analytical and monitoring purposes at national and EU levels. They have applied this framework to EU-SILC data collected in 2009, and as a result of their systematic item by item analysis carried out at both EU and country levels, they have suggested an alternative material deprivation (MD) indicator which consists of 13 items – six are common to the current 9-item MD indicator and seven are new. This paper discusses the impact of the move from the current EU definition of MD to this alternative 13-item indicator – impact in terms of the size of the population deprived throughout the EU, impact in terms of the composition (socio-demographic characteristics) of this population as well as impact on the Europe 2020 social inclusion target. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, material deprivation, Europe 2020 social inclusion target, EU-SILC |
| JEL: | O52 I32 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1307&r=neu |
| By: | Peter Debbaut; Andra C. Ghent; Marianna Kudlyak |
| Abstract: | Young borrowers are the least experienced financially and, conventionally, thought to be most prone to financial mistakes. We study the relationship between age and financial problems related to credit cards. Our results challenge the notion that young borrowers are bad borrowers. We show that young borrowers are among the least likely to experience a serious credit card default. We then exploit the 2009 CARD Act to identify which individuals self-select into obtaining a credit card early in life. We find that individuals who choose early credit card use default less and are more likely to get a mortgage while young. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-09&r=neu |
| By: | Chloé Guillot-Soulez (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz); Sébastien Soulez (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the preoccupations of young graduates from Generation Y transitioning from education to employment. Reviewing job search and employer brand literature, we update graduates' preferences for employer brand benefits in their initial job search. Using conjoint analysis on a French sample (N = 592), we demonstrate that, even if on the whole they prefer job security and a relaxed work atmosphere, their expectations are heterogeneous. The results also show that the Internet is far from being the first medium used by these young 'digital natives' graduates for the job search. This research lead to discuss the relevance of the concepts of Generation Y and generational segmentation and provide important information to assist jobseekers and career counselors in improving the speed and quality of employment, and to help recruiters to improve recruitment. |
| Keywords: | employer brand; generation Y; recruitment |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00863619&r=neu |
| By: | Zhen Huo; Jose-Victor Rios-Rull |
| Abstract: | We build a variation of the neoclassical growth model in which both wealth shocks (in the sense of wealth destruction) and financial shocks to households generate recessions. The model features three mild departures from the standard model: (1) adjustment costs make it difficult to expand the tradable goods sector by reallocating factors of production from nontradables to tradables; (2) there is a mild form of labor market frictions (Nash bargaining wage setting with Mortensen-Pissarides labor markets); (3) goods markets for nontradables require active search from households wherein increases in consumption expenditures increase measured productivity. These departures provide a novel quantitative theory to explain recessions like those in southern Europe without relying on technology shocks. |
| Keywords: | Recessions ; Productivity |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:490&r=neu |
| By: | Ejermo, Olof (CIRCLE, Lund University); Bergman, Karin (AgriFood Economics Centre, Lund Sweden) |
| Abstract: | While the distinction between manufacturing and services becomes increasingly blurred to some observers, we find, using a panel of Swedish firms, clear evidence that foreign sales (exports) are more important than domestic sales for stimulating R&D. This is particularly clear for manufacturing and this importance of foreign sales has increased over time, simultaneous to an opening up of the Swedish economy. Even though service industries have seen an increase in both R&D and trade over time, it is thus mainly manufacturing that has benefited from increased possibilities for absorptive capacity. This result suggests a clear dichotomy between manufacturing and services in terms of how they react to trade and how they turn towards the foreign market vs. the domestic market to find stimuli for innovation |
| Keywords: | Research and Development; Foreign and domestic sales; services; manufacturing |
| JEL: | D22 F14 F43 L60 L80 O14 O31 O33 O52 |
| Date: | 2013–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_022&r=neu |
| By: | Francisco B. Covas; Ben Rump; Egon Zakrajsek |
| Abstract: | We propose an econometric framework for estimating capital shortfalls of bank holding companies (BHCs) under pre-specified macroeconomic scenarios. To capture the nonlinear dynamics of bank losses and revenues during periods of financial stress, we use a fixed effects quantile autoregressive (FE-QAR) model with exogenous macroeconomic covariates, an approach that delivers a superior out-of-sample forecasting performance compared with the standard linear framework. According to the out-of-sample forecasts, the realized net charge-offs during the 2007-09 crisis are within the multi-step-ahead density forecasts implied by the FE-QAR model, but they are frequently outside the density forecasts generated using the corresponding linear model. This difference reflects the fact that the linear specification substantially underestimates loan losses, especially for real estate loan portfolios. Employing the macroeconomic stress scenario used in CCAR 2012, we use the density forecasts generated by the FE-QAR model to simulate capital shortfalls for a panel of large BHCs. For almost all institutions in the sample, the FE-QAR model generates capital shortfalls that are considerably higher than those implied by its linear counterpart, which suggests that our approach has the potential for detecting emerging vulnerabilities in the financial system. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-55&r=neu |
| By: | Hess , Wolfgang (Department of Economics, Lund University); Schwarzkopf , Larissa (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum); Hunger , Matthias (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum); Holle , Rolf (Institute of Health Economics and Health Care Management, Helmholtz Zentrum) |
| Abstract: | Multi-state transition models are widely applied tools to analyze individual event histories in the medical or social sciences. In this paper we propose the use of (discrete-time) competing-risks duration models to analyze multi-transition data. Unlike conventional Markov transition models, these models allow the estimated transition probabilities to depend on the time spent in the current state. Moreover, the models can be readily extended to allow for correlated transition probabilities. A further virtue of these models is that they can be estimated using conventional regression tools for discrete-response data, such as the multinomial logit model. The latter is implemented in many statistical software packages, and can be readily applied by empirical researchers. Moreover, model estimation is feasible, even when dealing with very large data sets, and simultaneously allowing for a flexible form of duration dependence and correlation between transition probabilities. We derive the likelihood function for a model with three competing target states, and discuss a feasible and readily applicable estimation method. We also present results from a simulation study, which indicate adequate performance of the proposed approach. In an empirical application we analyze dementia patients’ transition probabilities from the domestic setting, taking into account several, partly duration-dependent covariates. |
| Keywords: | Competing risks; Dementia; Discrete-time duration model; Multinomial logit; Random effects; Transition |
| JEL: | C41 I10 |
| Date: | 2013–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2013_028&r=neu |
| By: | Alexander Fink; Thomas Stratmann |
| Abstract: | Did the nuclear catastrophe at Fukushima in March 2011 cause individuals to reappraise the risks they attach to nuclear power plants? We investigate the change in housing prices in the U.S. after the Fukushima event to test the hypothesis that house prices in the proximity of power plants fell due to an updated nuclear risk perception. Using a difference-in-differences approach we do not find evidence in support of the hypothesis that individuals reappraise the risks associated with nuclear power plants. House prices close to nuclear reactor sites did not fall relative to house prices at other locations in the U.S. |
| Keywords: | Fukushima, nuclear accident, hedonic prices, housing, updating |
| JEL: | D80 Q51 R31 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:04-2013&r=neu |
| By: | Harslett, Philip |
| Abstract: | The GTAP Data Base provides a consistent snapshot of the global economy. It consists of a set of product-by-industry input output tables that represent the structures of more than 100 economies and are linked by bilateral merchandise and cross-border services trade. It is used to support a variety of models that are built to analyse policy changes. The database is assembled using regional input-output tables and data on trade, energy, protection and macroeconomic aggregates from a variety of international sources. The incompatibilities inherent in the data mean that many compromises are required to produce a fully consistent representation of the global economy. This paper provides a summary of the GTAP Data Base construction process. The process has improved continuously over the different versions. This paper refers to the process used to produce version 8.1. The detailed documentation is available from https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/databases/v8/v8_doco.asp. The purpose of this paper is to provide a link between that detailed documentation and the higher-level summary in the ‘Introduction to the Global Trade Analysis Project and the GTAP Data Base’ paper by Walmsley, Aguiar and Narayanan (2012). This paper contains three sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the GTAP Data Base construction procedure. Section 2 details the data sources used and the manipulations applied to data obtained from international organizations to ensure that they are globally consistent. Section 3 details the FIT process, which is the procedure used to adjust regional I-O tables so that they are consistent with international data sources. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:4289&r=neu |
| By: | Susilo, Yusak O. (KTH); Lyons, Glenn (University of the West of England); Jain, Juliet (University of the West of England); Atkins, Steve (University of the West of England) |
| Abstract: | Using data from Great Britain’s National Passenger Survey 2010 this paper examines the travel time use of rail passengers and their indicative assessment of its utility. The paper explores the impacts of individuals’ socio demographic characteristics, types of activity undertaken and the perceived difficulties that may be faced by the travellers on their assessment of travel time use utility. The study shows that only 13% of travellers considered their travel time as wasted. However, this varies by journey purpose, travelling class (first/standard class), gender and journey length. The study shows that the positive or negative appreciation by passengers of their journey time is not only a result of various combinations of on-board activity engagements, but also the smoothness of overall journey experience. Being able to work/study on the train most significantly increases individual appreciation of time use. However, a delay on an individual’s train journey also has a major influence in reducing his/her perceived value of travel time spent. ICT devices that enable travellers to watch film/video or play games or check emails are more appreciated than those providing access to music/podcast or access to social networking sites. The paper joins others in questioning assumptions made in economic appraisal that travel time is unproductive. It concludes with a call for more substantive and targeted data collection efforts within travel behaviour research devoted to further unravelling the phenomenon of the positive utility of travel. |
| Keywords: | Travel time use; Rail passenger; Journey satisfaction; Great Britain |
| JEL: | R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_018&r=neu |
| By: | Sundar, B.; Virmani, Vineet |
| Abstract: | This study is an attempt to measure the numeracy and financial literacy of forest dependent communities (FDCs) in India using data from the two economically different forest communities in the state of Andhra Pradesh. In an attempt to rehabilitate degraded forests, the Government of India launched the joint forest management (JFM) program in 1990 with the involvement of FDCs. This has not only helped increase their income levels, but through interactions with and help of Government officials, have also given them a first-hand exposure to financial management at JFM. While there is some evidence on numeracy and financial literacy of urban and rural households and fishing communities in India, there is no evidence on numeracy and financial literacy of Indian FDCs. This study attempts to fill that gap by providing background on FDCs in two economically different regions of Andhra Pradesh (Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra) and provides evidence on their numeracy and financial literacy. While the performance on both numeracy and financial literacy differs for the two regions, it is found that the participants scored better on numeracy skills than on financial literacy. It was found that while in general participants had difficulty in recognizing mathematical symbols for addition and multiplication and performing the corresponding operations, they were generally able to perform the same operations when orally instructed in their local language without difficulty. While the empirical evidence on financial literacy is less strong, roughly a third of the participants had some basic knowledge of economic concepts like simple interest and time value of money |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:12127&r=neu |
| By: | Timothy Uy; Kei-Mu Yi; Jing Zhang |
| Abstract: | We study the importance of international trade in structural change. Our framework has both productivity and trade cost shocks, and allows for non-unitary income and substitution elasticities. We calibrate our model to investigate South Korea's structural change between 1971 and 2005. We find that the shock processes, propagated through the model's two main transmission mechanisms, non-homothetic preferences and the open economy, explain virtually all of the evolution of agriculture and services labor shares, and the rising part of the hump-shape in manufacturing. Counterfactual exercises show that the role of the open economy is quantitatively important for explaining South Korea's structural change. |
| Keywords: | Gross domestic product ; Labor mobility ; Manufacturing industries |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-09&r=neu |
| By: | Mario Forni; Luca Gambetti; Luca Sala |
| Abstract: | A structural Factor-Augmented VAR model is used to evaluate the role of "news" shocks in generating the business cycle. We find that (i) existing small-scale VAR models are affected by "non-fundamentalness" and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; (ii) news shocks have a smaller role in explaining the business cycle than previously found in the literature; (iii) their effects are essentially in line with what predicted by standard theories; (iv) a substantial fraction of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology. JEL classification: C32, E32, E62. Keywords: Factor-augmented VAR, news shocks, invertibility, fundamentalness. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:491&r=neu |
| By: | Castellani, Davide (Department of Economics, Finance and Statistics, University of Perugia, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, Milan, Italy Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), Halle, Germany CIRCLE, Lund University, Sweden); Pieri, Fabio (Depto. de Economia Aplicada II (Estructura Economica), Universitat de Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The recent increase in R&D offshoring have raised fears that knowledge and competitiveness in advanced countries may be at risk of `hollowing out'. At the same time, economic research has stressed that this process is also likely to allow some reverse technology transfer and foster growth at home. This paper addresses this issue by investigating the extent to which R&D offshoring is associated with productivity dynamics of European regions. We find that offshoring regions have higher productivity growth, but this positive effect fades down with the number of investment projects carried out abroad. A large and positive correlation emerge between the extent of R&D offshoring and the home region productivity growth, supporting the idea that carrying out R&D abroad strengthen European competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | R&D Offshoring; Regional Productivity; Foreign Investments; Europe |
| JEL: | C23 F23 O47 O52 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_020&r=neu |
| By: | Randall Q. Akee (UCLA, Luskin School of Public Affairs); Timothy J. Halliday (UHERO, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Sally Kwak (U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on Taxation) |
| Abstract: | Due to the large social costs of juvenile crime, policymakers have long been concerned about its causes. In the 2009-10 school year, the State of Hawaii responded to fiscal strains by furloughing all school teachers employed by the Department of Education and canceling class for seventeen instructional days. We examine the effects of this unusually short school year to draw conclusions about the relationship between time in school and juvenile arrests on Oahu. We calculate marginal effects from a negative binomial model and find that time off from school is associated with significantly fewer juvenile assault and drug-related arrests, although there are no changes in other types of crimes, such as burglaries. During the shortened school year, we calculate that there were twenty fewer assault arrests and fourteen fewer drug-related arrests of juveniles on Oahu. The declines in arrests for assaults were the most pronounced in poorer regions of the island whereas the declines in drug-related arrests were higher in relatively more prosperous regions. |
| Keywords: | Education, Crime, Inequality |
| JEL: | J08 I24 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2013-7r1&r=neu |
| By: | Jeroen Horemans; Ive Marx |
| Abstract: | Part-time work has structurally increased across Europe. The recent crisis period has brought additional increases in many countries, especially in involuntary part-time employment. This paper considers the link between part-time work and poverty, taking a comparative perspective across the EU15. The extent to which part-time work is associated with poverty varies considerably, far more so than for full-time workers. Involuntary part-time work clearly stands out as most problematic although an increased poverty risk is not confined to that segment of part-time work. Part-time work for care reasons also carries a higher poverty risk in some countries. It is most problematic in countries where demand and supply side related factors reinforce each other so as to make part-time work an inferior choice from the perspective of preferred working hours, earnings and employment security. Moreover, part-timers sometimes face a ‘double income penalty’ in that they are more likely to have lower earnings and reduced eligibility for certain social transfers. However, there is again considerable cross-country variation in this respect. In some countries actually the reverse is the case and part-timers are in effect more likely to receive social transfers, while being in employment, improving their post-transfer poverty position in a significant way. Taken together, the paper shows that the regulatory drivers shaping part-time work and the welfare state arrangements supporting, or failing to support part-time work play key roles in accounting for the wide variation in poverty risks associated with part-time work across the EU15. |
| Keywords: | in-work poverty, part-time work, tax benefit systems, EU15, EU-SILC |
| JEL: | I32 J21 R28 J68 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1314&r=neu |
| By: | Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - Université Lumière - Lyon II); Nicolas Malhéné (EIGSI - EIGSI - EIGSI); Eleonora Morganti (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - PRES Université Paris-Est); Anna Trentini (EIGSI - EIGSI - EIGSI) |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous étudions l'organisation de plusieurs plateformes logistiques implantées en zone urbaine pour tenter de caractériser les facteurs clés de ces infrastructures. Nous focalisons notre attention sur les Centres de Distribution Urbaine (CDU) et les Espaces Logistique de Proximité (ELP) et analysons les stratégies de coopération mises en œuvre pour assurer leur pérennité. |
| Keywords: | Centres de Distribution Urbaine; Espaces Logistiques de Proximité; stratégies de coopération; jeu d'acteurs. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00862009&r=neu |
| By: | Wang, Qian (KTH); Sundberg, Marcus (KTH); Karlström , Anders (KTH) |
| Abstract: | Rank dependent utility maximization is applied in maximizing a linear and a quadratic scheduling model considering a subjective weighting over uncertain outcomes. The optimal departure time and maximal utility are different from that under expect utility maximization in the transformed travel time density function. Probability weighting is found when estimating the linear model and the estimated weighting function suggests optimism behaviour of respondents. The results also reveal the evidence of heterogeneity in scheduling preferences. Moreover, evidence for the variable of excessive travel time beyond the traditional scheduling model specification is found even with controlling for probability weighting. Our results also show no empirical equivalence between the scheduling model and its derived forms. |
| Keywords: | Scheduling models; Rank dependent utility; Risk attitudes; Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_016&r=neu |
| By: | Stuart Adam (Institute for Fiscal Studies); James Browne (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | The UK government is in the process of introducing a radical package of welfare reforms that it hopes will encourage more people to work as well as reducing government expenditure. The largest structural change planned is the introduction of universal credit to combine six existing means-tested benefits for those of working age into a single payment, which is intended to reduce administration costs and errors, simplify claims, encourage take-up, and increase the incentive to work for those currently facing the weakest incentives. But the deficit reduction package has also involved tax changes and large benefit cuts that have an impact on financial work incentives. At the same time as these reforms have been introduced, weakness in the economy has meant that earnings have increased less quickly than benefit rates, which tends to make working less attractive. In this paper, we use micro-simulation techniques to investigate whether financial work incentives will indeed be stronger in 2015-16 than they were in 2010-11 and to separate out the impact of changes to taxes, benefit cuts and the introduction of universal credit from the impact of wider economic changes. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:13/26&r=neu |
| By: | Aguiar, Angel; Terrie Walmsley |
| Abstract: | In an attempt to control the flow of undocumented immigrants, successive US governments have considered everything from large scale deportation, amnesties, expanding visa programs, to fining firms who hire illegal workers. Using a comparative static model, Aguiar and Walmsley (2013), find that amnesties have a positive impact on the US economy. However such policies are one-time changes in the labor force, whose benefits diminish over time, and which are unlikely to stem the flow of undocumented workers or fulfill the demands of U.S. firms for cheap foreign labor. In this paper we use a global dynamic model to investigate the long run implications of three alternative policy scenarios: 1) a one-time amnesty for undocumented workers living in the US; 2) a permanent increase in the number of foreign worker visas; and 3) enhanced border security. We find that an amnesty is much less effective than a permanent increase in visas at promoting growth in the U.S., while enhanced border control by the U.S. is beneficial for Mexico in terms real GDP. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:4266&r=neu |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | This paper explored the degree of inflation persistence in Thailand using both headline and sectoral CPI indices during the 1985-2012 period. The results showed that the degree of persistence was low across the fixed and floating exchange rate regimes. The mean shifts appeared to be mostly negative by the impact of switching from fixed to floating exchange rate regime. Furthermore, there seemed to be monetary accommodation of inflation persistence in both regimes. However, some negative mean shifts in the inflation process might be resulted from the impact of inflation targeting implemented in May 2000. |
| Keywords: | Inflation persistence, exchange rate regimes, monetary accommodation. |
| JEL: | C22 E31 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50109&r=neu |
| By: | Conchita D'Ambrosio |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of the inclusion of past experiences in measuring current material deprivation. The method followed generalises the recent proposal of Bossert, Chakravarty, Ceriani and D’Ambrosio (2013) by adapting the class of indices on the measurement of poverty over time of Dutta, Roope and Zank (2012). An application to the analysis of material deprivation within EU countries is then provided. Following the path of material deprivation experienced by each individual over time yields a picture which differs from that in the annual results. Since the measurement of material deprivation is used by the EU member states and the European Commission to monitor national and EU progress in the fight against poverty and social exclusion, the results suggest that time cannot be neglected. Countries should not only be compared based on their year-by-year results, but additional information is gained by following individuals over time and producing an aggregate measure once time is taken into account. |
| Keywords: | Material Deprivation, Intertemporal Social Index Numbers, Persistent Deprivation |
| JEL: | D63 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1308&r=neu |
| By: | Holden, Stein (Centre for Land Tenure Studies, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Fisher, Monica (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center) |
| Abstract: | The existence of an inverse relationship (IR) between farm size and productivity in tropical agriculture remains a debated issue with policy relevance. Poor agricultural statistical data, including data on farm sizes and farm plot sizes that typically are self-reported by farmers, can lead to biased results and wrong policy conclusions. This study combines self-reported and GPS-measured farm plot and farm sizes to assess how measurement error affects the IR using three rounds of farm plot and household data from Malawi. The results show that measurement error covers up more than 60% of the IR for the total sample but leads to an upward bias in the IR on farms less than one ha. Land and labor market imperfections in combination with food self-sufficiency motives appear to explain most of the IR and lead to a strong IR on farms below one ha. |
| Keywords: | Inverse farm size – productivity relationship; Measurement error; Land and labor market imperfections; Land quality; Malawi. |
| JEL: | J43 O13 Q12 |
| Date: | 2013–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsclt:2013_012&r=neu |
| By: | Peter Wirtz (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713) |
| Abstract: | La gouvernance de la Compagnie de Jésus se caractérise dès ses débuts par un certain nombre de particularités, dont le vœu d'obéissance au pape, l'importante autorité du préposé général, ainsi que l'esprit ignatien qui est transmis à travers les exercices spirituels à toutes les générations de jésuites. Dans le présent article, nous montrons que le système particulier de gouvernance de la jeune Compagnie joue un rôle déterminant dans l'efficacité missionnaire de l'ordre, grâce, notamment, à son action en tant que levier cognitif et comportemental. |
| Keywords: | Gouvernance, levier cognitif, levier comportemental, jésuites |
| Date: | 2013–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00862068&r=neu |
| By: | Brenzel, Hanna (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Gartner, Hermann (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schnabel, Claus |
| Abstract: | "Using a representative establishment dataset, this paper is the first to analyze the incidence of wage posting and wage bargaining in the matching process from the employer's side. We show that both modes of wage determination coexist in the German labor market, with about two-thirds of hirings being characterized by wage posting. Wage posting dominates in the public sector, in larger firms, in firms covered by collective agreements, and in part-time and fixed-term contracts. Job-seekers who are unemployed, out of the labor force or just finished their apprenticeship are also less likely to get a chance of negotiating. Wage bargaining is more likely for more-educated applicants and in jobs with special requirements as well as in tight regional labor markets." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | E24 J30 J63 M51 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201315&r=neu |
| By: | Pauline Gauthier (Chercheur Indépendant - Aucune); Chloé Guillot-Soulez (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713) |
| Abstract: | En dépit d'un contexte économique difficile et de marges de manoeuvre financières limitées, la plupart des entreprises prennent conscience de la nécessité de reconnaître des compétences individuelles dépassant le savoir-faire uniquement lié au poste, pour motiver leurs salariés et renforcer leur flexibilité et leur compétitivité. Cet article étudie les solutions mises en oeuvre par les entreprises pour reconnaître les compétences de leurs salariés, en s'appuyant sur treize cas d'entreprises. Les organisations étudiées privilégient une reconnaissance des compétences acquises, tout en restant dans le cadre des classifications, reconnaissance qui se traduit par des possibilités de progression individuelle, en termes de rémunération et d'évolution au sein des métiers. Ces résultats conduisent à discuter de la place de l'évaluation et de la transparence des décisions au regard des concepts d'équité et de justice, ainsi que du rôle que peuvent jouer les organisations syndicales dans le dispositif, de sorte à favoriser la conciliation entre la perspective de l'entreprise et celle des salariés. |
| Keywords: | classification ; compétences ; qualification ; reconnaissance ; rémunération. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00863603&r=neu |
| By: | Nilsson, Magnus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Mattes, Jannika (Institute for Social Sciences, CETRO, University of Oldenburg, Germany and CIRCLE, Lund University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze how the spatiality of interactions influences trust creation in multi-site corporate innovation projects. By drawing on insights from the discussion on initial and gradual trust and connecting them to contributions from the field of economic geography, we examine different antecedents of trust and their dependence on face-to-face interaction. We thereby illustrate the complexity of initial and gradual trust creation and the interplay between personality traits, group-based similarities, situational and institutional factors, reputational inference, and personal interaction as trust antecedents. We can show that the speed and level of resilient trust creation is decisively influenced by the frequency and duration of face-to-face exchange between key project actors. The empirical insights are based on two qualitative case studies on specific innovation projects in multinational companies. Our findings stress the need to incorporate space as a facilitating factor in the analysis of trust development. |
| Keywords: | Trust; spatiality; proximity; face-to-face; project work |
| JEL: | M10 M19 |
| Date: | 2013–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_016&r=neu |
| By: | Patrice Laroche (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz); Mathieu Floquet (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz, LOG - Laboratoire Orléanais de Gestion - Université d'Orléans); Loris Guery (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz); Chloé Guillot-Soulez (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713); Anne Stévenot (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz) |
| Abstract: | Cette communication s'inscrit dans la lignée des travaux qui étudient le lien entre partage des profits et niveau des salaires. Si les travaux antérieurs se sont largement focalisés sur les enjeux de l'intéressement, il paraît intéressant de considérer, au travers du cas français, la diversité des dispositifs d'épargne salariale (ES), en particulier le Plan d'épargne et les pratiques d'abondement et de versements volontaires des salariés. En croisant les données de l'enquête REPONSE menée par la DARES en 2004 et de l'enquête PIPA de 2005 portant sur les pratiques d'ES des entreprises françaises, nous avons, sur un échantillon final de 1143 entreprises, construit une typologie originale fondée sur le caractère volontaire et l'intensité des politiques d'ES menées par les entreprises. L'objectif était ensuite, à l'aide de modèles de régression, de chercher la cohérence entre l'intensité des politiques d'ES et les pratiques salariales par ailleurs, en considérant non seulement les caractéristiques de niveau et de dispersion des salaires mais aussi les modalités de rémunération. Nos résultats valident la thèse selon laquelle les pratiques d'ES plus intenses auraient plutôt tendance à être associées à un niveau de salaire plus élevé et mettent en évidence l'intégration de la politique d'ES dans une stratégie de rémunération globale cohérente, en lien avec les pratiques d'augmentations et de primes aux performances collectives ou individuelles. |
| Keywords: | épargne salariale, rémunération, politique salariale, typologie, enquête REPONSE, enquête PIPA. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00863544&r=neu |
| By: | Benjamin Montmartin (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis [UNS]); Nadine Massard (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | Many economists have long held that market failures create a gap between social and private returns to Research and Development (R&D), thereby limiting private incentives to invest in R&D. However, this common belief that firms significantly underinvest in R&D is increasingly being challenged, leading the rationale behind public support for private R&D to be questioned. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the perspectives of two sources : the theoretical literature on endogenous growth, and its recent developments in integrating a geographical dimension, and the empirical literature that measures the social returns to R&D in relation to the private returns. Ultimately, we are able to clearly distinguish among different types of market failures and compare their relative impact on the gap between the private and social returns to R&D. Two main conclusions are reached. First, systematic firm underinvestment in R&D is not demonstrated. Second, even though instances of underinvestment do occur, they are mainly explained by surplus appropriability problems rather than by knowledge externalities. This suggests the need for a new policy mix that employs more demand-oriented instruments and is more concentrated on identifying efficient allocations among activities rather than merely increasing global private R&D investment. |
| Keywords: | Returns to R&D; Market failures; R&D-based growth; Economic Geography; R&D policy |
| Date: | 2013–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00864011&r=neu |
| By: | Christopher L. Smith |
| Abstract: | It has been well documented that the share of the working-age population employed in "middle-skill" occupations has been falling for some time, while the share in lower- and higher-skill jobs has been rising--i.e. "polarization" of the labor market (e.g. Autor 2010). However, the dynamics and related mechanism behind these employment trends are not fully understood; nor is it well understood what happens to workers who are displaced from middle-skill jobs. In this paper, I use data from the matched monthly CPS, the March CPS supplement, and the Displaced Worker Survey to answer two primary questions. First, into what employment states or occupations do unemployed persons who were formerly employed in low-, middle-, or high-skill occupations transition? Second, how have transitions between job types and employment states changed over time, and how have these changes contributed to trends in employment shares by job-type? I find that the decline in the share of workers in middle-skill jobs is due both to a decline in inflows into these jobs (particularly from non-employment and for younger workers) and because of a rise in outflows from these jobs (to non-employment and to other jobs); the increase in the share of workers in lower-skill jobs appears due to an increase in worker transitions from other job types (evident within all demographic groups); and the increase in the share of workers in higher-skill jobs appears due to an increase in worker transitions from other job types and is also somewhat compositional in nature (because there are more college-educated workers). |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-57&r=neu |
| By: | 高山, 憲之; 稲垣, 誠一; 小塩, 隆士 |
| Abstract: | 年金加入履歴に基づく「くらしと仕事に関する中高年インターネット特別調査」は、19 41年4月2日から1957年4月1日までに生まれた全国の公的年金加入者（船員保険 および共済組合に加入実績のある者を除く）を対象とし、①「ねんきんネット」から入手 できる行政データ（年金加入履歴や賃金履歴など）の転記、②転記事項をベースにした回 顧パネル調査（転職状況、結婚、出産、両親との同別居など）、③現時点のくらしと仕事 に関する調査、の３つを、インターネットを通じて同時に実施したものである。本稿では 、この調査の概要を解説するとともに、その基本項目に関する集計結果と公的な統計調査 結果とを比較することによって、本調査におけるサンプルバイアスなど調査客体の主要な 特徴を明らかにした。特に、過去2回にわたって実施した同様の手法による調査と同じく 、高学歴者等への偏りが観察されたものの、15歳から直近時点まで、古くは1950年 代までさかのぼり最長57年間に及ぶ、ほぼ完璧なパネルデータを一挙に入手することが できたことを確認した。このような超長期にわたる、ほとんど欠落のないパネルデータは 、本調査シリーズを除くと、日本には過去に例がなく、また世界にもわずかな例があるだ けの稀有のデータである。 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:cisdps:608&r=neu |
| By: | Aksan, Anna-Maria; Chakraborty, Shankha |
| Abstract: | We provide a new explanation for sub-Saharan Africa’s slow demographic and economic change. In a model where children die from infectious disease, childhood health affects human capital and noninfectious-disease related adult mortality. When child mortality falls from lower prevalence, as in western Europe, labor productivity improves, fertility falls and the economy prospers. When it falls mainly from better cures, as in sub-Saharan Africa, survivors are less healthy and there is little economic payoff. The model quantitatively explains sub-Saharan Africa’s experience. More generally it shows that life expectancy at birth is a poor indicator of population health unless morbidity falls with mortality. |
| Keywords: | Demographic Transition, Epidemiological Transition, Mortality, Morbidity, Fertility |
| JEL: | I10 I12 J13 O40 |
| Date: | 2013–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:49929&r=neu |
| By: | He Chen; Jun-ichi Inoue |
| Abstract: | We introduce a probabilistic model of labor markets for university graduates, in particular, in Japan. To make a model of the market efficiently, we take into account several hypotheses. Namely, each company fixes the (business year independent) number of opening positions for newcomers. The ability of gathering newcomers depends on the result of job matching process in past business years. This fact means that the ability of the company is weaken if the company did not make their quota or the company gathered applicants too much over the quota. All university graduates who are looking for their jobs can access the public information about the ranking of companies. Assuming the above essential key points, we construct the local energy function of each company and describe the probability that an arbitrary company gets students at each business year by a Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution. We evaluate the relevant physical quantities such as the employment rate. We find that the system undergoes a sort of `phase transition' from the `good employment phase' to `poor employment phase' when one controls the degree of importance for the ranking. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5156&r=neu |
| By: | Bertrand Lemennicier |
| Abstract: | Le con flit politique qui existe entre les magistrats et les hommes politiques à propos de leur indépendance et responsabilité respective est un sujet de débat non seulement chez les juristes mais aussi chez les économistes. Les juges veulent être indépendants des hommes politiques et les hommes politiques veulent que les juges appliquent les conceptions de la justice pour lesquels les électeurs les ont élus. Le problème de fond sous-jacent est simple : qui doit dire le Droit ou le juste : l'homme politique ou ses commanditaires, la fraction des élus qui l'ont porté au pouvoir ou bien les professionnels du droit et les juges? C'est un conflit de pouvoir très classique au demeurant, entre des bureaucrates , les juges, qui devraient obéir, et ceux qui ordonnent, les hommes politiques comme intermédiaire des commanditaires ultimes : les électeurs. Ces derniers doivent finalement arbitrer, à l'extrême, entre des juges indépendants et irresponsables et des juges responsables et dépendants des hommes politiques. La comparaison entre l'Europe et les États Unis est instructive. Les modes de recrutement et de controle de la carrière de ces magistrats sont très variés. Ils permettent d'évaluer cet arbitrage entre indépendance et servilité sur les décisions des juges. Pour mesurer et comparer l'impact des differentes facons de contrôler les juges, nous avons pris, pour les États-Unis, le nombre de sentences de peine de mort prononcé et, pour les Etats européens, la probabilité de sanctionner les magistrats pour faute professionnelle ou déontologique. |
| Keywords: | indépendance, responsabilité, magistrats, sentences de peine de mort, sévérité des sanctions disciplinaires, élection, CSM, bureaucratie, syndicalisme |
| JEL: | K10 K40 K41 K42 O10 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:05-2013&r=neu |
| By: | Dariusz Grech; Grzegorz Pamu{\l}a |
| Abstract: | We provide an alternative method for analysis of multifractal properties of time series. The new approach takes into account the behaviour of the whole multifractal profile of the generalized Hurst exponent $h(q)$ for all moment orders $q$, not limited only to the edge values of $h(q)$ describing in MFDFA scaling properties of smallest and largest fluctuations in signal. The meaning of this new measure is clarified and its properties are investigated for synthetic multifractal data and real signals taken from stock market. We show that the proposed new measure is free of problems one can meet in real nonstationary signals, while searching their multifractal signatures. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5466&r=neu |
| By: | He Chen; Jun-ichi Inoue |
| Abstract: | We introduce a toy probabilistic model to analyze job-matching processes in recent Japanese labor markets for university graduates by means of statistical physics. We show that the aggregation probability of each company is rewritten by means of non-linear map under several conditions. Mathematical treatment of the map enables us to discuss the condition on which the rankings of arbitrary two companies are reversed during the dynamics. The so-called `mismatch' between students and companies is discussed from both empirical and theoretical viewpoints. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5158&r=neu |
| By: | Timothy J. Kehoe; Kim J. Ruhl; Joseph B. Steinberg |
| Abstract: | Since the early 1990s, the United States has borrowed heavily from its trading partners. This paper presents an analysis of the impact of an end to this borrowing, an end that could occur suddenly or gradually. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmep:13-4&r=neu |
| By: | Ben Ross Schneider |
| Abstract: | O histórico de sucesso dos Estados desenvolvimentistas na Ásia Oriental e o sucesso parcial de Estados desenvolvimentistas na América Latina sugerem vários pré-requisitos comuns para a intervenção estatal eficaz, incluindo uma burocracia weberiana, o monitoramento da implementação de projetos e reciprocidade (subsídios em troca de desempenho) e relações de colaboração entre governo e empresas. Embora o Brasil não tenha conseguido desenvolver uma indústria de fabricação e exportação de alta tecnologia – segmento que na Ásia Oriental foi responsável por um crescimento continuado –, o Estado desenvolvimentista brasileiro teve um número importante, e muitas vezes negligenciado, de sucessos, especialmente em aço, automóveis, mineração, etanol e fabricação de aeronaves. Ele foi menos bem-sucedido na promoção de setores como tecnologia da informação e energia nuclear, bem como na redução das desigualdades sociais e regionais. Além disso, algumas iniciativas isoladas de governos estaduais também foram eficazes na promoção de determinados segmentos locais da indústria e da agricultura. Em contraste com a Ásia Oriental, as empresas estatais no Brasil tiveram papel central, efetivamente internalizando os procedimentos de acompanhamento e reciprocidade e ignorando a colaboração entre empresas e governo. The historical success of the Asian developmental States and the partial success of developmental States in Latin America suggest numerous common requisites for an efficient State intervention, including a weberian bureaucracy, the monitoring of project implementation and reciprocity (subsidies in exchange of performance), and collaborative relations between government and private companies. Even though Brazil wasn’t able to develop a high technology manufacture and exportation industry – sector that responded for continued growth in East Asia – the Brazilian developmental State had an important number of successes, often neglected, especially in steel, cars, mining, ethanol and aircrafts. Brazil was less successful in the promotion of information technology, nuclear energy and in the reduction of social and regional inequalities governments were also efficient in the promotion of some local industrial and agricultural sectors. In contrast with Asia, Brazilian state-owned enterprises played a central role, effectively internalizing monitoring and reciprocity procedures, and ignoring the cooperation between government and private companies (which was, generally, more rare in Brazil). |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1871&r=neu |
| By: | Chloé Guillot-Soulez (CEREFIGE - Centre Européen de Recherche en Economie Financière et Gestion des Entreprises - Université Nancy II : EA3942 - Université de Metz) |
| Abstract: | Jusqu'en 2005, les entreprises françaises n'avaient le droit d'attribuer qu'une seule forme de rémunération en actions : les stock-options. Depuis 2005, elles ont le choix entre stock-options et actions gratuites. La recherche s'interroge sur les conséquences de ce changement à travers l'analyse des 800 plans introduits entre 2001 et 2011 par les entreprises du CAC40. Les résultats montrent que les actions gratuites sont entrées dans les pratiques des entreprises mais sans entraîner la disparition des stock-options dans la mesure où les deux mécanismes renvoient à des logiques d'attribution différentes. |
| Keywords: | stock-options ; actions gratuites ; rémunération en actions ; performance boursière ; CAC40 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00863638&r=neu |
| By: | Katja Maria Kaufmann; Matthias Messner; Alex Solis |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the marriage market returns to being admitted to a higher ranked (i.e. more ”elite”) university by exploiting unique features of the Chilean university admission system.This system centrally allocates applicants based on their university entrance test score, which allows us to identify causal effects by using a regression discontinuity approach. Moreover, the Chilean context provides us with the necessary data on the long run outcome ‘partner quality’. We find that being admitted to a higher ranked university has substantial returns in terms of partner quality for women, while estimates for men are about half the size and not significantly different from zero. JEL-Classification: I23, I24, J12. Keywords: Returns to education quality, higher education, marriage market, regression discontinuity, Chile. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:489&r=neu |
| By: | Salustri, Andrea |
| Abstract: | The Italian international reputation in mainly related to the high level of its public debt. During the Great Recession, this fact, associated to the stagnation of productivity, raised serious doubts on its economic and financial sustainability. The doubts are legitimated also by the fact that Italy is a net borrower of capitals from abroad, as its Net International Investment Position (NIIP) is negative. The statistical analysis of the Italian public finances suggests how the deep causes of the Italian financial and economic fragility rest in the malfunctioning of the institutional (public and private) and economic framework. The Italian economy should manage its structural weaknesses: i) by maturing a long term view able to involve the capital stocks in the economic reasoning; ii) by enabling SME and citizens’ participation in all the economic activities; by empowering the third sector and more in general non profit activities in order to facilitate the formation of social capital. |
| Keywords: | Debt-GDP ratio, spending review, economic inclusion |
| JEL: | H50 H63 H72 |
| Date: | 2013–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50113&r=neu |
| By: | Nikolay Nenovsky; Pencho Penchev |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present one possible historical reconstruction of the German historical school in Bulgaria for the period 1878 – 1944. The main postulates of the historical school which claimed to be a general theoretical model for newly emerging and backward economies suited well the interests of the basic social groups and the intellectual views of the newly formed Bulgarian elites. In Bulgaria the main dominating components of the historical school followed its own evolution (old, young and youngest historical school) while also intermingling with other major components of other theoretical schools. Thus, for instance, right after the Liberation, in the theoretical views of the Bulgarian economic scholars a specific synthesis emerged with the ideas of the classical liberal thought (G. Nachovich, Ivan Evstatiev Geshov), after WWI with the postulates of monetarism and conservative public finances (?. Lyapchev, G. Danailov), and during the 1930s with the ideas of organic and directed economy (?. Tsankov, ?. Bobchev). This eclectic interaction, within which the influence of the historical school increased, brought about evolution of the character of the “Bulgarian economic nationalism” (liberal, monetary-conservative and integral, corporate). Especially significant for the Bulgarian economic thought was the warm receipt of the Russian economic historical school even if only for the fact that this school came from a Slavic and Orthodox country. |
| Keywords: | German historical school, Bulgarian economic though, Balkans, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | B15 B31 P00 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:08-2013&r=neu |
| By: | Greene, William H.; Gillman, Max; Harris, Mark N. |
| Abstract: | We propose a Tempered Ordered Probit (TOP) model. Our contribution lies not only in explicitly accounting for an excessive number of observations in a given choice category - as is the case in the standard literature on inflated models; rather, we introduce a new econometric model which nests the recently developed Middle Inflated Ordered Probit (MIOP) models of Bagozzi and Mukherjee (2012) and Brooks, Harris, and Spencer (2012) as a special case, and further, can be used as a specification test of the MIOP, where the implicit test is described as being one of symmetry versus asymmetry. In our application, which exploits a panel data-set containing the votes of Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members, we show that the TOP model affords the econometrician considerable flexibility with respect to modeling the impact of different forms of uncertainty on interest rate decisions. Our findings, we argue, reveal MPC members. asymmetric attitudes towards uncertainty and the changeability of interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy committee, voting, discrete data, uncertainty, tempered equations |
| JEL: | C3 E50 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2013-05&r=neu |
| By: | Susilo, Yusak O. (KTH); Hanks, Nathan (Transport Planning Associates (UK)); Ullah, Mahmud (University of the West of England) |
| Abstract: | Using data from 2,096 convenience store customers within and outside the Greater London Metropolitan Area, this paper explores how individuals access their convenience stores and how significant the influence of their socio-demographics, shopping types and trip chaining is to their mode choice in visiting the stores. Trip chaining is found to be very crucial in influencing customers’ mode choice and their visit frequency to the stores. The models also show that frequent shoppers (people who visit the stores at least a few times a week) are the ones most likely to visit the stores on foot. Interestingly, the estimation results also show that the location’s density, shopping types and the day of the week are not significant in influencing the travel modes. Customers who live at the most deprived areas are less likely to use a private car in visiting the stores. |
| Keywords: | The use of local stores; Shift in travel mode; Shopping trip pattern; London |
| JEL: | O18 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_020&r=neu |
| By: | Marcelle Chauvet; Zeynep Senyuz; Emre Yoldas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of stock and bond market volatility from daily returns and model volatility as composed of a long-run component that is common across all series, and a set of idiosyncratic short-run components. Based on powerful in-sample predictive ability tests, we find that the stock volatility measures and the common factor significantly improve short-term forecasts of conventional financial indicators. A real-time out of sample assessment yields a similar conclusion under the assumption of noisy revisions in macroeconomic data. In a non-linear extension of the dynamic factor model for volatility series, we identify three regimes that describe the joint volatility dynamics: low, intermediate and high-volatility. We also find that the non-linear model performs remarkably well in tracking the Great Recession of 2007-2009 in real-time. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-61&r=neu |
| By: | Weber, Enzo (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Zika, Gerd (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-of-sample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector-autoregressive model, which includes not only the aggregate but also the numbers of gainfully employed people at the industry level. The Clark/West test is used in the model comparison. It becomes evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation- window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast accuracy to the strongest extent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Arbeitsmarktprognose - Methode, Prognostik, Beschäftigtenzahl |
| JEL: | J23 C53 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201314&r=neu |
| By: | Luis Brandao-Marques; Ricardo Correa; Horacio Sapriza |
| Abstract: | Government support to banks through the provision of explicit or implicit guarantees affects the willingness of banks to take on risk by reducing market discipline or by increasing charter value. We use an international sample of rated banks and find that government support is associated with more risk taking by banks, especially prior and during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. We also find that restricting banks’ range of activities ameliorates the link between government support and bank risk taking. We conclude that strengthening market discipline by reducing bank complexity is needed to address this moral hazard problem |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1086&r=neu |
| By: | Marcela Ibanez (Georg-August University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | The intense debate on the effectiveness of the war on drugs contrasts with the lack of empirical evidence on its impacts. To evaluate the effectiveness of control-supply policies, we use micro data from an original survey with farmers living in a coca growing area in Colombia. We find that while eradication and alternative development decrease coca supply, the elasticity of supply of these policies is rather low. The efficiency of anti-drug policies could be increased by investing more in alternative development and less in eradication. Our analysis suggests that changing people's attitudes toward coca can be a promising alternative in the fight against drugs. |
| Keywords: | Coca; Colombia; War on Drugs; Morality |
| JEL: | D81 G11 K42 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2013–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:148&r=neu |
| By: | Diener, Katharina (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Götz, Susanne (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schreyer, Franziska (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Stephan, Gesine (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "This report presents findings of the quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the pilot program 'Perspective of Women's Re-entry into the Labor Market', conducted by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB). The pilot program aims at supporting the re-entry of women into the labor market after a family-related absence from employment for at least three years. Managed by the Federal Ministry for Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth in cooperation with the German Federal Employment Office, the program was implemented across Germany by 28 project executing agencies with partially different concepts. This report refers to the first funding period of the program from March 2009 to February 2012. The findings of the quantitative evaluation are based on altogether five panel surveys of two cohort samples of women participating in the model program as well as a potential comparison group of women who are clients of the Federal Employment Agency (non-participating women). Despite a careful selection of similar nonparticipating women, both groups will probably consist of women with different labor market aspirations: The program aims at women who are in need of orientation services to re-enter the job market. Non-participating women have at least contact to a jobcenter. This does, however, not necessarily imply that they are keen to re-enter the labor market, and they might be in need of orientation services, too." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabfob:201309&r=neu |
| By: | Julian di Giovanni; Andrei A. Levchenko; Jing Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an \unbalanced" one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed ones, experience an order of magnitude larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors. We demonstrate both analytically and quantitatively that this fnding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade. As a separate but related exercise we quantify the worldwide welfare gains from China's trade integration. |
| Keywords: | Production (Economic theory) ; Technological innovations ; Welfare |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-08&r=neu |
| By: | Dominique Jacob (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954) |
| Abstract: | Cet article aux enseignements issus de l'Histoire américaine de la crise des dettes publiques gérée par Alexander Hamilton à la guerre de sécession. afin d'en tirer les éventuels enseignements pour une zone euro fédérale qui disposerait d'un budget commun. On montrera, ensuite, que la fragmentation monétaire américaine des années Roosevelt est plus proche de la situation de la crise actuelle de la zone euro que ne l'était celle de la guerre de sécession. Sur le plan monétaire, les travaux de König (2012), Carlson et Weelock (2013) permettent d'établir une grande similitude entre la situation non coopérative qui prévalait alors entre les banques fédérales de district et les dissensions qui prévalent actuellement entre banques centrales nationales européennes au sein du système de paiements transfrontaliers Target 2. Appel (2003) montre que l'un des buts des Banking Act de 1933 et 1935 était de mettre fin aux rivalités entre les banques de district fédérale et la Réserve Fédérale de New York, en leur interdisant d'agir pour leur compte propre et en les soumettant aux injonctions de cette dernière. Pour la zone euro, cela permet d'envisager des mesures politiques susceptibles de limiter les conflits entre Banques centrales créancières du Nord et banques centrales débitrices du Sud au sein de Target 2. |
| Keywords: | Pays européens, crise financière, monnaie unique, Target 2 |
| Date: | 2013–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00863029&r=neu |
| By: | Régis Breton (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France); Sébastien Galanti (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans); Christophe Hurlin (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS : UMR6221 - Université d'Orléans); Anne-Gaël Vaubourg (Larefi - Laboratoire d'analyse et de recherche en économie et finance internationales - Université Montesquieu - Bordeaux IV : EA2954) |
| Abstract: | We study whether financial analysts' concern for preserving good relationships with firms' managers motivates them to issue pessimistic or optimistic forecasts. Based on a dataset of one-yearahead EPS forecasts issued by 4 648 analysts concerning 241 French firms (1997-2007), we regress the analysts' forecast accuracy on its unintentional determinants. We then decompose the fixed effect of the regression and we use the firm-analyst pair effect as a measure of the intensity of the firm-analyst relationship. We find that a low (high) firm-analyst pair effect is associated with a low (high) forecast error. This observation suggests that pessimism and optimism result from the analysts' concern for cultivating their relationship with the firm's management. |
| Keywords: | financial analysts, earnings forecasts, soft information, panel regression. |
| Date: | 2013–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00862996&r=neu |
| By: | Wang , Qian (KTH); Sundberg, Marcus (KTH); Karlström , Anders (KTH) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we introduce a discrete penalty for excessive travel times into scheduling models whose maximal expected utilities have attractive theoretical features of linearity in standard deviation or variance. The extended models maintain the properties of linearity, and its maximal expected utility depends on the shape of the travel time distribution. The value of travel time and its variability could be measured indirectly by the scheduling preferences. The results from empirical data reveal that the extended models, with such a discrete penalty, provide a highly significant better goodness of fit to the data. Furthermore, introducing the penalty for excessive travel time has a strong effect on the estimates of the other scheduling parameters, thus affecting the valuations of travel time. Our findings indicate that, apart from the mean and standard deviation (or variance), individuals value other characteristics of travel time distribution, in particular the probability of excessive travel time. |
| Keywords: | Scheduling preferences; Travel time variability; Asymmetric travel time distribution; Excessive travel time |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_015&r=neu |
| By: | Geranda Notten |
| Abstract: | Poverty indicators often disagree about whether a person is poor or not. Yet, when it comes to assessing whether a program is successful in reaching the poor the dominant practice is to use an income poverty indicator. This paper investigates whether the choice of welfare indicator influences the pro-poorness assessment of an intervention. Using the official European Union income and material deprivation indicators, this paper compares the outcomes of four performance indicators for three types of income transfers in six high income European countries namely Germany, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom. This study finds that the dominant practice of using an income indicator systematically underestimates the performance of income transfers; when the information from both indicators is combined programs are assessed as far more successful. |
| Keywords: | performance measurement, poverty, income, material deprivation, income transfers, European Union, EU-SILC, targetting |
| JEL: | I32 I38 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1313&r=neu |
| By: | Ying Jiao; Olivier Klopfenstein; Peter Tankov |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the asset-liability management of a nuclear power plant operator, we consider the problem of finding the least expensive portfolio, which outperforms a given set of stochastic benchmarks. For a specified loss function, the expected shortfall with respect to each of the benchmarks weighted by this loss function must remain bounded by a given threshold. We consider different alternative formulations of this problem in a complete market setting, establish the relationship between these formulations, present a general resolution methodology via dynamic programming in a non-Markovian context and give explicit solutions in special cases. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5094&r=neu |
| By: | Eric Dor (IESEG School of Management (LEM-CNRS)) |
| Abstract: | The structural heterogeneity of the Euro Zone is well described by the net external financial positions of the different countries. The countries with the highest external debts are those who were particular ly affected when the sovereign debt crisis started. The announcement by the ECB of the possibility to conduct Outright Monetary Transactions has triggered a sharp decrease of the sovereign spreads of the European distressed countries. However the announcement of the possibility of OMT was not successful to significantly reduce the fragmentation of the financial market of the Euro Zone. There remain large differences between the interest rates at which the companies of the different countries can borrow |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201318&r=neu |
| By: | Christoph K\"uhn; Johannes Muhle-Karbe |
| Abstract: | A small investor provides liquidity at the best bid and ask prices of a limit order market. For small spreads and frequent orders of other market participants, we explicitly determine the investor's optimal policy and welfare. In doing so, we allow for general dynamics of the mid price, the spread, and the order flow, as well as for arbitrary preferences of the liquidity provider under consideration. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5235&r=neu |
| By: | Mohamad Houda (LMRS) |
| Abstract: | We determine an explicit formula for the Laplace transform of the price of an option on a maximal interest rate when the instantaneous rate satisfies Cox-Ingersoll-Ross's model. This generalizes considerably one result of Leblanc-Scaillet. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5565&r=neu |
| By: | Arie E. Gozluklu; Pietro Perotti; Barbara Rindi; Roberta Fredella |
| Abstract: | Trading venues often impose a minimum trade unit constraint (MTUC) to facilitate order execution. This paper examines the effects of a natural experiment at Borsa Italiana where the exchange reduced the MTUC to one share for all stocks. After the removal of the MTUC, we observe a substantial improvement in liquidity, measured by a decrease in the bid-ask spread and an increase in market depth. The cross-sectional evidence shows that those firms for which the MTUC was more binding benefit the most from the microstructure change. These findings are consistent with a model of asymmetric information in which the MTUC affects traders’ choice of order size. As the model predicts, liquidity improves following the reduction in adverse selection costs. KEYWORDS: minimum trade unit constraint, limit order book, market liquidity, adverse selection costs |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:493&r=neu |
| By: | Vatthanamixay Chansomphou (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation); Masaru Ichihashi (Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we seek to understand the patterns of structural change, labor productivity growth and convergence in BRIC countries. In the first part, we employ the dataset of labor productivity from de Vries et al. (2012) and the Groningen Growth and Development Center (2013) and utilize the shift and share analysis to investigate the contribution of within shift, static shift and dynamic shift effects on growth of labor productivity. In the second part, we use the convergence tests to check for the cross-country convergence in each economic sector. Our aggregate shift-share decomposition results report that labor productivity growth within sector itself is the main source of aggregate growth, while an effect of labor movement exists (shift effect) but not substantial. Among BRIC, we found that, during 1980-2008, China had the highest rate of labor productivity growth, following by India, Russia, and Brazil, respectively. The results of the convergence analysis show that service sectors in BRICs have faster catching-up rates than industrial sectors, and there is no convergence in agriculture. Among service sectors, financial, insurance, and real estate sector has highest speed of convergence. The BRICs results are then used to compare with the four OECD countriesf results. It is found that in OECD countries, the sectors that converge fastest are mining and finance, insurance, and real estate. Nevertheless, the magnitudes of speed of convergence in OECDs are not comparable to BRICs. This confirms the growth theory in that less developed countries converge faster than developed nations. In sum, our findings imply that service sectors are the driving force of economic growth and economic convergence in BRICs. |
| Keywords: | Structural change, shift-share analysis, sectoral convergence, BRICs |
| JEL: | C80 N10 O10 O11 O41 O47 |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hir:idecdp:3-5&r=neu |
| By: | Rama Cont (Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires CNRS); Lakshithe Wagalath (IESEG School of Management) |
| Abstract: | We propose a tractable framework for quantifying the impact of fire sales on the volatility and correlations of asset returns in a multi-asset setting. Our results enable to quantify the impact of fire sales on the covariance structure of asset returns and provide a quantitative explanation for spikes in volatility and correlations observed during liquidation of large portfolios. These results allow to test for the presence of fire sales during a given period of time and to estimate the impact and magnitude of fire sales from observation of market prices: we give conditions for the identifiability of model parameters from time series of asset prices, propose an estimator for the magnitude of fire sales in each asset class and study the consistency and large sample properties of the estimator. We illustrate our estimation methodology with two empirical examples: the hedge fund losses of August 2007 and the Great Deleveraging following the default of Lehman Brothers in Fall 2008. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:f201301&r=neu |
| By: | Richard Sullivan; Zhu Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the diffusion and impact of a cost-saving technological innovation—Internet banking. Our theory characterizes the process through which the innovation is adopted sequentially by large and small banks, and how the adoption affects bank size distribution. Applying the theory to an empirical study of Internet banking diffusion among banks across 50 U.S. states, we examine the technological, economic and institutional factors governing the process. The empirical findings allow us to disentangle the interrelationship between Internet banking adoption and change in average bank size, and explain the variation in diffusion rates across geographic regions. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-10&r=neu |
| By: | Jeremy G. Weber; Jason P. Brown; John Pender |
| Abstract: | New technologies for accessing energy resources, changes in global energy markets, and government policies have encouraged growth in the natural gas and wind industries in the 2000s. The growth has offered new opportunities for wealth creation in many rural areas. At a local level, households who own land or mineral rights can benefit from energy development through lease and royalty payments. Using nationally-representative data on U.S. farms from 2011, we assess the consumption, investment, and wealth implications of the $2.3 billion in lease and royalty payments that energy companies paid to farm businesses. We estimate that the savings of current energy payments combined with the effect of payments on land values added $104,000 in wealth for the average recipient farm. |
| Keywords: | Consumption (Economics) - United States ; Households - Economic aspects ; Farms - Valuation |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp13-07&r=neu |
| By: | Marcela Ibanez (Georg-August University Göttingen); Elke Schaffland (Georg-August University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | In order to deal with crises, organizations often bring expert leaders from outside. However, relying in an outside leader can result in decreased performance of the organization. In this paper, we use an experiment to investigate the role of identity and skills of the outside leader on the performance of the organization. Our results indicate that outside leaders are less committed than inside leaders and that group members cooperate less with an outsider than an inside leader. |
| Keywords: | Social Identity; Leadership; Public Good Game; Lab Experiment |
| Date: | 2013–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:149&r=neu |
| By: | Ozge Akinci |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) Global financial risk shocks explain about 20 percent of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1085&r=neu |
| By: | Svaleryd, Helena (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The business cycle is likely to be of importance for self-employment rates. When the economy is growing, business opportunities open up and encourage the set-up of new firms. In downturns, self-employment may be a way to avoid unemployment. The strength of these pull and push factors may depend on the amount of human capital a person has. The findings in this paper show that although the local business cycle is of minor importance for total self-employment rates in Sweden, there are heterogeneous effects across groups. People with higher human capital endowments are more likely to be pulled into self-employment, while those with lower human capital endowments are to a larger extent pushed into self-employment. This pattern is particularly strong for women. |
| Keywords: | Self-employment; local business cycle; panel data |
| JEL: | J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_015&r=neu |
| By: | Jonathan E. Goldberg |
| Abstract: | I study the effects of credit tightening in an economy with uninsured idiosyncratic investment risk. In the model, entrepreneurs require an equity premium because collateral constraints limit insurance. After collateral constraints tighten, the equity premium and the riskiness of consumption rise and the risk-free interest rate falls. I show that, both immediately after the shock and in the long run, the equity premium and the riskiness of consumption increase more than they would if the risk-free rate were constant. Indeed, the long-run increase in the riskiness of consumption growth is purely a general-equilibrium effect: if the risk-free rate were constant (as in a small open economy), an endogenous decrease in risk-taking by entrepreneurs would, in the long run, completely offset the decrease in their ability to diversify. I also show that the credit shock leads to a decrease in aggregate capital if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is sufficiently high. Finally, I show that, due to a general-equilibrium effect, there is no "overshooting" in the equity premium: in response to a permanent decrease in firms' ability to pledge their future income, the equity premium immediately jumps to its new steady-state level and remains constant thereafter, even as aggregate capital adjusts over time. However, if idiosyncratic uncertainty is sufficiently low, credit tightening has no short- or long-run effects on aggregate capital, the equity premium, or the riskiness of consumption. Thus my paper highlights how investment risk affects the economy's response to a credit crunch. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-47&r=neu |
| By: | Timothy J. Kehoe; Kim J. Ruhl; Joseph B. Steinberg |
| Abstract: | Since the early 1990s, as the United States has borrowed from the rest of the world, employment in U.S. goods-producing sectors has fallen. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we find that rapid productivity growth in goods production, not U.S. borrowing, has been the most important driver of the decline in goods-sector employment. As the United States repays its debt, its trade balance will reverse, but goods-sector employment will continue to fall. A sudden stop in foreign lending in 2015–2016 would cause a sharp trade balance reversal and painful reallocation across sectors, but would not affect long-term structural change. |
| Keywords: | Trade |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmsr:489&r=neu |
| By: | Isao Okada (The Mainichi Newspapers); Stephen A. Greyser (Harvard Business School) |
| Abstract: | When a Major League Baseball club signs a Japanese star player, it obviously tries to commercialize its investment in the player. The initial focus is on home attendance (ticket sales) and television audiences, plus merchandise sales. These elements are similar to those considered for any high-performing players. However, for Japanese stars, there is also the potential to attract significant fandom from the local Japanese community. This represents an opportunity for truly incremental local revenue for the team. In addition, teams try to attract revenue from Japan-such as from corporate sponsors, advertising signage at the home field, and visiting Japanese fans traveling to the U.S. to see these stars perform. In addition to treating team efforts at growing local Japanese community support, this paper examines seven factors for success in attracting revenues from Japanese companies and fans: pitcher or position player, player's popularity, non-stop flights from Japan, distance from Japan, non-sport tourist attractions in a city, size of Japanese community in the city and player's and team's performance. The most important factor, however, is the player's talent and popularity in terms of performance in both Japan and the U.S. and his media exposure in Japan including endorsement contracts. In addition, if a MLB club signs a Japanese position star player and is based in a city which is endowed with a variety of non-baseball tourist attractions, this would have a further advantage for the team. The field-based research reported here is derived largely from analysis of team experiences with five principal Japanese baseball stars-Hideo Nomo, Ichiro Suzuki, Hideki Matsui, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Kosuke Fukudome. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hbs:wpaper:14-029&r=neu |
| By: | Elisa Luciano; Clas Wihlborg |
| Abstract: | We analyze theoretically banks choice of organization and leverage in branches or subsidiaries in the presence of organizational and financial synergies, government bailouts, bankruptcy costs and varying correlations between risk-factors. The social efficiency of banks’ choices are analyzed as well taking into account operational synergies and distortions caused by banks’ exploitation of benefits of limited liability if there is a probability of governments bail-out. Leverage choice can be viewed as a trade-off between expected benefits of limited liability and bankruptcy costs. The choice of subsidiary vs branch organization can be viewed as a trade-off between organizational synergies and bankruptcy costs and this tradeoff depends on other factors mentioned. The theoretical and numerical analysis has a number of policy implications. We emphasize the role of capital requirements, explicit and implicit protection of banks’ creditors, restrictions on organizational choice with different synergies, insolvency procedures for banks affecting private and social costs associated with a bank’s insolvency |
| Keywords: | bank subsidiaries, bank branches |
| JEL: | G21 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:06-2013&r=neu |
| By: | Mariam Camarero (Universitat Jaume I de Castelló / Spain); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research, Goettingen / Germany); Felicitas Nowak-Lehmenn D. (Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research, Goettingen / Germany); Cecilio Tamarit (Universidad de Valencia / Spain) |
| Abstract: | In this article we present evidence of the long-run effect of trade openness on income per worker for two regions that have followed different liberalization strategies, namely Asia and Latin America. A model that re-examines these questions is estimated for two panels of Asian and Latin American countries over the 1980-2008 period using a novel empirical approach that accounts for endogeneity as well as for the time series properties of the variables involved. From an econometric point of view, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for two additional elements usually neglected in previous empirical literature: cross-dependence and structural breaks. The results point to a positive impact of trade openness in both Asia and Latin America although the size is smaller in the second region. We associate this finding with the degree to which trade was managed in both regions of the developing world. |
| Keywords: | GDP per worker, trade openness, panel cointegration, structural breaks, crosssection dependence, Asia, Latin America |
| JEL: | F15 F43 C22 O40 |
| Date: | 2013–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:226&r=neu |
| By: | Paul André (Accounting / Management Control Department - ESSEC Business School); Andrei Filip (Accounting / Management Control Department - ESSEC Business School); Luc Paugam (Accounting / Management Control Department - ESSEC Business School, DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS : UMR7088 - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of the mandatory adoption of IFRS in Europe in 2005 on conditional conservatism. To capture conditional conservatism, we use three measures: the Basu (1997) measure, the Khan and Watts (2009) measure, and a measure controlling for potential shifts in unconditional conservatism and cost of capital after the adoption of IFRS. From a sample of 7,251 firm-year observations drawn from 16 European countries, we document an overall decline of the degree of conditional conservatism across our three measures. While there is no change in weak enforcement/governance countries which remain less conditionally conservative than strong enforcement/governance countries, the latter exhibit a significant decrease. Further, we demonstrate that the decline is more significant for firms carrying intangible assets and goodwill in their balance sheets, items for which impairment tests rely on unverifiable fair value estimates. We argue that IFRS are conceptually conditionally conservative but that inappropriate application of conditional conservatism principles may have prevented financial reporting from reaching the level of conservatism targeted by the IASB. |
| Keywords: | Conditional Conservatism ; IFRS ; Europe ; Enforcement, Governance ; Intangibles ; Impairment |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00862683&r=neu |
| By: | Sabrina Buti; Barbara Rindi; Yuanji Wen; Ingrid M. Werner |
| Abstract: | We show that following a tick size reduction in a decimal public limit order book (PLB) market quality and welfare fall for illiquid but increase for liquid stocks. If a Sub-Penny Venue (SPV) starts competing with a penny-quoting PLB, market quality deteriorates for illiquid, low priced stocks, while it improves for liquid, high priced stocks. As all traders can demand liquidity on the SPV, traders' welfare increases. If the PLB facing competition from a SPV lowers its tick size, PLB spread and depth decline and total volume and welfare increase irrespective of stock liquidity. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:492&r=neu |
| By: | Liu, Ju (CIRCLE, Lund University); Chaminade, Cristina (CIRCLE, Lund University); Asheim, Bjørn (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the geography and structure of global innovation networks (GINs) of two multinational companies belonging to industries with different knowledge bases. It contributes to existing literature on knowledge bases, by studying both intra-firm and inter-firm GINs. By means of social network analysis based on primary data, we identify two different forms of GINs, namely the globallyorganised model and the locally-organised model. The paper finds that, in addition to influencing the geographic spread of a GIN, the knowledge base also influences the way that a GIN is organised. |
| Keywords: | global innovation network; multinational companies; knowledge base; structure; geography; social network analysis |
| JEL: | F23 O32 |
| Date: | 2012–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_015&r=neu |
| By: | Hellström, Jörgen (Umeå School of Business and Economics); Zetterdahl, Emma (Department of Economics, Umeå School of Business and Economics); Hanes, Niklas (Department of Economics, Umeå School of Business and Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper new and detailed empirical evidence on the impact of family on individuals’ stock market participation decision is provided. Since influence is likely to vary systematically over different types of individuals the heterogeneous effect of social interaction, in a setting including both community as well as within-family effects, is further examined. The main results indicate that individuals’ likelihood for subsequent participation increases (decreases) following positive (negative) parental and partner stock market experiences. The effect of social interaction is further found to be of relatively greater importance for individuals with relatively lower levels of financial literacy and for individuals with an on average higher level of interpersonal trust. In terms of gender, both male and female participation is positively affected by family influence, while community effects mainly pertain to males. |
| Keywords: | Family effects; Investor behavior; Peer effect; Social interaction; Social influence; Stock market participation |
| JEL: | D83 G11 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0865&r=neu |
| By: | Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we formulate and solve a New Keynesian model with monetary and fiscal policy rules whose coefficients are time-varying and interdependent. We implement time variation in the policy rules by specifying coefficients that are logistic functions of correlated latent factors and propose a solution method that allows for these characteristics. The paper uses Bayesian methods to estimate the policy rules with time-varying coefficients, endogeneity, and stochastic volatility in a limited-information framework. Results show that monetary policy switches regime more frequently than fiscal policy, and that there is a non-negligible degree of interdependence between policies. Policy experiments reveal that contractionary monetary policy lowers inflation in the short run and increases it in the long run. Also, lump-sum taxes affect output and inflation, as the literature on the fiscal theory of the price level suggests, but the effects are attenuated with respect to a pure fiscal regime. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-58&r=neu |
| By: | Roman Inderst (Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität, Frankfurt/Main); Frank Maier-Rigaud (IESEG School of Management (LEM-CNRS)) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the key determinants of umbrella effects, which arise when the price increase or quantity reduction of a cartel diverts demand to substitute products. Umbrella effects arise irrespective of whether non cartelists act as price takers (“competitive fringe”) or respond strategically to the increased demand. Sizable umbrella effects can also arise when non-cartelists are outside the relevant market (in the sense of a SSNIP test), provided that the cartel’s price increase is substantial. Further, a shift of demand to non-cartelists, triggering a price increase, can be induced also when their purchasers themselves benefit from higher demand as rivals purchase from the cartel and pass-on the respective price increase. To identify the actual damage it is thus key to take into account the overall adjustments among cartel members and outsiders as well as their respective, potentially competing purchasers. We also discuss how future analysis of the endogenous formation of cartels with partial market coverage should inform theories of the determinants of umbrella effects. |
| Keywords: | umbrella effect, partial cartel, pass-on, cartel effect, quantification of damages, merger effects, private enforcement, standing, market definition, cellophane fallacy, antitrust |
| JEL: | K21 L13 L41 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201317&r=neu |
| By: | Ju, Jiandong (BOFIT); Shi , Kang (BOFIT); Wei , Shang-Jin (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | In partial equilibrium, a reduction in import barriers may be thought to lead to an increase in imports and a reduction in trade surplus. However, the general equilibrium effect can go in the opposite direction. We study how trade reforms affect current accounts by embedding a modified Heckscher-Ohlin structure and an endogenous discount factor into an intertemporal model of current account. We show that trade liberalizations in a developing country would generally lead to capital outflow. In contrast, trade liberalizations in a developed country would result in capital inflow. Thus, efficient trade reforms can contribute to global current account imbalances, but these imbalances do not need policy "corrections". |
| JEL: | F32 F49 |
| Date: | 2013–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2013_025&r=neu |
| By: | Jan K. Brueckner; Paul S. Calem; Leonard I. Nakamura |
| Abstract: | Rapid house-price depreciation and rising unemployment were the main drivers of the huge increase in mortgage default during the downturn years of 2007 to 2010. However, mortgage default was also partly driven by an increased reliance on alternative mortgage products such as pay-option ARMs and interest-only mortgages, which allow the borrower to defer principal amortization. The goal of this paper is to better understand the forces that spurred use of alternative mortgages during the housing boom and the resulting impact on default patterns, relying on a unifying conceptual framework to guide the empirical work.> The conceptual framework allows borrowers to choose the extent of mortgage “backloading,” the postponement of loan repayment through various mechanisms that constitutes a main feature of alternative mortgages. The model shows that, when future house-price expectations become more favorable, reducing default concerns, mortgage choices shift toward alternative contracts. This prediction is confirmed by empirical evidence showing that an increase in past house-price appreciation, which captures more favorable expectations for the future, raises the market share of alternative mortgages. In addition, using a proportional-hazard default model, the paper tests the fundamental presumption that backloaded mortgages are more likely to default, finding support for this view. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage loans ; Mortgages |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-36&r=neu |
| By: | Khanra, Avijit; Soman, Chetan A. |
| Abstract: | Sensitivity analysis is an integral part of inventory optimization models due to uncertainty associated with estimates of model parameters. Though the newsboy problem is one of the most researched inventory problems, very little is known about its robustness. We study sensitivity of expected demand-supply mismatch cost to sub-optimal ordering decisions in the newsboy model. Conditions for symmetry (skewness) of cost deviation have been identied and magnitude of cost deviation is demonstrated for normal demand distribution. We found the newsboy model to be sensitive to sub-optimal ordering decisions, much more sensitive than the economic order quantity model. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:12128&r=neu |
| By: | Grant Hillier (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Southampton); Federico Martellosio |
| Abstract: | The (quasi-) maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the autoregressive parameter in a spatial autoregressive model cannot in general be written explicitly in terms of the data. The only known properties of the estimator have hitherto been its first-order asymptotic properties (Lee, 2004, Econometrica), derived under specific assumptions on the evolution of the spatial weights matrix involved. In this paper we show that the exact cumulative distribution function of the estimator can, under mild assumptions, be written down explicitly. A number of immediate consequences of the main result are discussed, and several examples of theoretical and practical interest are analysed in detail. The examples are of interest in their own right, but also serve to illustrate some unexpected features of the distribution of the MLE. In particular, we show that the distribution of the MLE may not be supported on the entire parameter space, and may be nonanalytic at some points in its support. Supplementary material relating to this working paper can be viewed here |
| Keywords: | spatial autoregression, maximum likelihood estimation, group interaction, networks, complete bipartite graph |
| JEL: | C12 C21 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:44/13&r=neu |
| By: | German Cubas; B. Ravikumar; Gustavo Ventura |
| Abstract: | We develop a theory of labor quality based on (i) the division of the labor force between unskilled and skilled workers and (ii) investments in skilled workers. In our theory, countries differ in two key dimensions: talent and total factor productivity (TFP). We measure talent using the observed achievement levels from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) scores. Our findings imply that the quality of labor in rich countries is about twice as large as the quality in poor countries. Thus, the implied disparities in TFP levels are smaller relative to the standard growth model using a measure of labor quality based on Mincer returns. In our model, the resulting elasticity of output per worker with respect to TFP is about 2. |
| Keywords: | Economic development ; Education - Economic aspects ; Labor productivity |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-027&r=neu |
| By: | Lindhe, Tobias (Uppsala center for fiscal studies); Södersten, Jan (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the distortions caused by dividend taxation depend on whether or not shareholders can recover their original equity injections without being subject to the dividend tax. We point out the alternative assumptions in the literature on this, and we compare two different tax regimes, one where it is impossible for the firm to pay cash to its shareholders that is not taxed as dividends, the other where the shareholders are allowed a tax-free return of the original capital contributed through new issues. Our analysis shows that the regimes imply a substantial difference to our perceptions of the distortive effects of dividend taxation. |
| Keywords: | dividend taxation; share repurchases; equity trap; cost of capital; nucleus theory; growth path |
| JEL: | H24 H25 H32 |
| Date: | 2013–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_016&r=neu |
| By: | Andrei A. Levchenko; Jing Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates both aggregate and distributional impacts of the trade integration of China, India, and Central and Eastern Europe in a quantitative multi-country multi-sector model, comparing outcomes with and without factor market frictions. Under perfect within-country factor mobility, the gains to the rest of the world from trade integration of emerging giants are 0.37%, ranging from –0.37% for Honduras to 2.28% for Sri Lanka. Reallocation of factors across sectors contributes relatively little to the aggregate gains, but has large distributional effects. The aggregate gains to the rest of the world are only 0.065 percentage points lower when neither capital nor labor can move across sectors within a country. On the other hand, the distributional effects of the emerging giants' trade integration are an order of magnitude larger, with changes in real factor returns ranging from –5% to 5% across sectors in most countries. The workers and capital owners in emerging giants' comparative advantage sectors such as Textiles and Wearing Apparel experience greatest losses, while factor owners in Printing and Medical, Precision and Optical Instruments normally gain the most. |
| Keywords: | Emerging markets ; Labor market |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2013-10&r=neu |
| By: | Takushi Kurozumi; Willem Van Zandweghe |
| Abstract: | In the presence of staggered price setting, high trend inflation induces a large deviation of steady-state output from its natural rate and indeterminacy of equilibrium under the Taylor rule. This paper examines the implications of a ''smoothed-off'' kink in demand curves for the natural rate hypothesis and macroeconomic stability using a canonical model with staggered price setting, and sheds light on the relationship between the hypothesis and the Taylor principle. An empirically plausible calibration of the model shows that the kink in demand curves mitigates the influence of price dispersion on aggregate output, thereby ensuring that the violation of the natural rate hypothesis is minor and preventing fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations under the Taylor rule. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedkrw:rwp13-08&r=neu |
| By: | Norkute, Milda (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | There is no a priori reason to suppose that price-setting behaviour is homogeneous across sectors and countries. Aggregate data is, however, commonly used to estimate the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC), which may very well yield erroneous results if price-setting behaviour is heterogeneous. In this paper we therefore estimate the hybrid NKPC for the Euro Area using a novel sectoral data set containing quarterly observations from 1999Q1 to 2012Q1. We show that a positive relationship between inflation and real marginal cost cannot be established empirically for a majority of countries and sectors. We also perform a meta-analysis by combining the results of individual significance tests in order to assess the validity of the NKPC in each country across all sectors and in each sector across all countries. We find no empirical evidence for the NKPC in the Euro Area when this meta-analysis is used. Our results therefore raise doubts about the appropriateness of the NKPC for the analysis of inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the Euro Area. |
| Keywords: | New Keynesian Phillips curve; Inflation; Meta-analysis |
| JEL: | C12 E31 |
| Date: | 2013–09–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2013_031&r=neu |
| By: | Benjamin Keddad (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the extent to which the Asian exchange rates are coordinated around a synthetic Asian Currency Unit (ACU) defined as a basket of the Asian currencies. Using a VAR model, the results provide some evidence of stabilization among the Asian exchange rates around the ACU. Although the US dollar remains the dominant anchor within the region, these countries have allowed for more exchange rate flexibility against the US dollar since 2006, with the aim to adopt a basket peg where the Asian currencies have gained an increasing role. The empirical results also suggest that the official adoption of an undisclosed currency basket by Chinese authorities in July 2005 has been an important factor in the decision of Asian countries to shift toward a de facto currency basket system. |
| Keywords: | Asian Currency Unit; monetary integration; currency basket peg; nominal exchange rate coordination |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00862254&r=neu |
| By: | Elliot Anenberg; Patrick Bayer |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new empirical evidence that internal movement--selling one home and buying another--by existing homeowners within a metropolitan housing market is especially volatile and the main driver of fluctuations in transaction volume over the housing market cycle. We develop a dynamic search equilibrium model that shows that the strong pro-cyclicality of internal movement is driven by the cost of simultaneously holding two homes, which varies endogenously over the cycle. We estimate the model using data on prices, volume, time-on-market, and internal moves drawn from Los Angeles from 1988-2008 and use the fitted model to show that frictions related to the joint buyer-seller problem: (i) substantially amplify booms and busts in the housing market, (ii) create counter-cyclical build-ups of mismatch of existing owners with their homes, and (iii) generate externalities that induce significant welfare loss and excess price volatility. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-60&r=neu |
| By: | Veneziani, Roberto; Yoshihara, Naoki |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys and extends some recent contributions on the theory of exploitation as the unequal exchange of labour. A model of dynamic economies with heterogeneous optimising agents is presented which encompasses the models used in the literature as special cases. It is shown that the notion of exploitation is logically coherent and can be meaningfully analysed in such a general framework. It is then shown that the axiomatic approach of social choice theory can be adopted to explore the normative foundations of the notion of exploitation. Finally, it is argued that purely distributive approaches to exploitation are not entirely compelling and a notion of dominance, or unequal power is necessary. |
| Keywords: | Exploitation, axiomatic social choice |
| JEL: | D63 D51 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:594&r=neu |
| By: | Fredrik Andersson; Harry J. Holzer; Julia I. Lane; David Rosenblum; Jeffrey Smith |
| Abstract: | We study the job training provided under the US Workforce Investment Act (WIA) to adults and dislocated workers in two states. Our substantive contributions center on impacts estimated non-experimentally using administrative data. These impacts compare WIA participants who do and do not receive training. In addition to the usual impacts on earnings and employment, we link our state data to the Longitudinal Employer Household Dynamics (LEHD) data at the U.S. Census Bureau, which allows us to estimate impacts on the characteristics of the firms at which participants find employment. We find moderate positive impacts on employment, earnings and desirable firm characteristics for adults, but not for dislocated workers. Our primary methodological contribution consists of assessing the value of the additional conditioning information provided by the LEHD relative to the data available in state Unemployment Insurance (UI) earnings records. We find that value to be zero. |
| JEL: | I38 J08 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19446&r=neu |
| By: | Viviane De Beaufort (Public and Private Policy Department - ESSEC Business School); Lucy Summers (University of Queensland - University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia) |
| Abstract: | The feminization of Boards has the potential to be a vector of change, bringing "added value" to organisations through gender diversity, thus creating greater efficiency. Promoting women to positions of power only makes sense, however, if these women are allowed to bring, in terms of skills and behavior, a difference to the table. This involves confronting the masculine model, in order to BUILD a model of mixed leadership integrating the "feminine" quotient (A.Arcier). A qualitative study on women and their relation to power, undertaken in France and abroad (published in October 2012), allowed the formulation of some hypotheses in order to construct a proposition of a mixed power model that would integrate both masculine and feminine "polarities" within enterprises and organisations (ValérieRocoplan).This article is the outcome of various influences: the data of this study (by the same author with the support of the firm Boyden) which was further enriched by the analysis of other publications on the subject, as well as the experience acquired within the framework of the program Women Be European Board Ready (created by ESSEC). The article deliberately focuses on the issues surrounding gender and governance in order to address the smooth and effective running of Boards. The study essentially aims to highlight the fact that women wishing to obtain these mandates, or those who have reached these posts, share a rigorous and idealised vision of the functioning of the Boards and demand a model based on "sustainable governance" that is better adapted to the challenges which Boards face in our corporate world of upheaval. These women are potential "engines" for change. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Governance ; Leadership ; Board Composition ; Corporate Productivity ; Firm-Level Governance Outcomes ; Sustainable Governance ; International Corporate Governance ; Cross-Boarder Corporate Governance Issues ; evolution of models of governance ; women and boards ; non-executive board members ; gender dimension ; women and power. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00862715&r=neu |
| By: | William Dupor; Rong Li |
| Abstract: | There exist sticky price models in which the output response to a government spending change can be large if the central bank is nonresponsive to inflation. According to this “expected inflation channel," government spending drives up expected inflation, which in turn, reduces the real interest rate and leads to an increase in private consumption. This paper examines whether the channel was important during the 2009 Recovery Act period. Examining U.S. expected inflation measures based on professional surveys and a cross-country comparison of bond yields, we conclude that the Recovery Act had a much smaller expected inflation effect than suggested by an appropriately calibrated large output multiplier" sticky price model. Moreover, we show that the channel is inconsistent quantitatively with vector autoregression evidence from the Federal Reserve's passive policy period. Taking the evidence as a whole, we conclude that if the Act had exhibited a large output multiplier, it was not likely due to the expected inflation channel as formulated in existing research. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy ; Fiscal policy ; American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-026&r=neu |
| By: | Poulsen, Jonas (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The African National Congress (ANC) can look back on eighty years of struggle which resulted in the liberation of black Africans, the creation of a democratic constitution and free elections. However, the last twenty years of ANC rule has been criticized for the failure to bring higher living standards for the formerly oppressed. With the party's dominance and the challanges facing South Africa in mind, I estimate the effect of ANC power in municipalities on economic, social and budgetary outcomes. To estimate the causal effect of the party, this paper uses an instrumental variable approach developed by Freier & Odendahl (2012) and a regression discontinuity design. Taken together, the results point to an adverse effect of the party: less is spent on repairs and water provision which in turn may explain why ANC power seems to lower the share of individuals who have access to piped water and electricity. Further, more resources are used on municipal employees and the councillors themselves, while I find suggestive evidence of an increase in the poverty rate due to the party. Lastly, although being their major political support, we cannot conclude that the ANC affects black African's living standards. From the IV analysis, I find indications that oppositional parties many times have a more positive impact on outcomes as they gain power at the expence of the ANC. |
| Keywords: | ANC; party effects; instrumental variable; regression discontinuity; South Africa |
| JEL: | H11 N47 O12 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_017&r=neu |
| By: | Simon Gilchrist; Egon Zakrajsek |
| Abstract: | Estimating the effect of Federal Reserve's announcements of Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programs on corporate credit risk is complicated by the simultaneity of policy decisions and movements in prices of risky financial assets, as well as by the fact that both interest rates of assets targeted by the programs and indicators of credit risk reacted to other common shocks during the recent financial crisis. This paper employs a heteroskedasticity-based approach to estimate the structural coefficient measuring the sensitivity of market-based indicators of corporate credit risk to declines in the benchmark market interest rates prompted by the LSAP announcements. The results indicate that the LSAP announcements led to a significant reduction in the cost of insuring against default risk--as measured by the CDX indexes--for both investment- and speculative-grade corporate credits. While the unconventional policy measures employed by the Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy have substantially lowered the overall level of credit risk in the economy, the LSAP announcements appear to have had no measurable effect on credit risk in the financial intermediary sector. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-56&r=neu |
| By: | Gilles Dufrénot (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)); Benjamin Keddad (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - Aix-Marseille Univ. - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM)) |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries' business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers where the business cycles of other countries (China, Japan and the US) play an important role in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate over time and across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5 countries' individual business cycles. |
| Keywords: | OCA; East Asia; business cycle synchronization; monetary union; markov-switching |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00861901&r=neu |
| By: | Dennis Kristensen (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Bernard Salanie (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Many modern estimation methods in econometrics approximate an objective function, for instance, through simulation or discretisation. These approximations typically affect both bias and variance of the resulting estimator. We provide a higher-order expansion of such 'approximate' estimators that takes into account the errors due to the use of approximations. This expansion allows us to establish general conditions under which the approximate estimator is first-order equivalent to the exact estimator. Moreover, we use the expansion to propose adjustments of the approximate estimator that remove its first-order bias and adjust its standard errors. These adjustments apply to a broad class of approximate estimators that includes all known simulation-based procedures. We also propose another approach to reduce the impact of approximations, based on a Newton-Raphson adjustment. A Monte Carlo simulation on the mixed logit model shows that our proposed adjustments can yield spectacular improvements at a low computational cost. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:45/13&r=neu |
| By: | Francesca Beccacece; Emanuele Borgonovo; Greg Buzzard; Alessandra Cillo; Stanley Zionts |
| Abstract: | This work addresses the early phases of the elicitation of multiattribute value functions proposing a practical method for assessing interactions and monotonicity. We exploit the link between multiattribute value functions and the theory of high dimensional model representations. The resulting elicitation method does not state any a-priori assumption on an individual’s preference structure. We test the approach via an experiment in a riskless context in which subjects are asked to evaluate mobile phone packages that differ on three attributes. Keywords: Multiattribute Utility Theory; High Dimensional Model Representations; Value Function Elicitation; Sparse Grid Interpolation. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:igi:igierp:495&r=neu |
| By: | Matteo Migheli; Giovanni B. Ramello |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to shed light on scholarly communication and its current trajectories by examining academics’ perception of Open Access, while also providing a reference case for studying social norm change. In this respect, the issue of publication choice and the role of Open Access journals casts light on the changes affecting the scientific community and its institutional arrangements for validating and circulating new research. The empirical investigation conducted also offers a useful vantage point for gauging the importance of localised social norms in guiding and constraining behaviour |
| JEL: | K19 Z13 O33 L17 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:icr:wpicer:03-2013&r=neu |
| By: | James M. Nason; Gregor W. Smith |
| Abstract: | We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We operate the Kalman filter in reverse, beginning with observed forecasts, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the stochastic trend in inflation. The trend-cycle model with unobserved components is consistent with numerous studies of US inflation history and is of interest partly because the trend may be viewed as the Fed’s evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. The sluggish reporting attributed to forecasters is consistent with evidence on mean forecast errors. We find considerable evidence of inflation-gap persistence and some evidence of implicit sticky information. But statistical tests show we cannot reconcile these two widely used perspectives on US inflation forecasts, the unobserved-components model and the sticky-information model. |
| Keywords: | Inflation (Finance) - United States ; Forecasting |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-34&r=neu |
| By: | Yarmukhamedov, Sherzod (VTI) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses discrete choice and count data models to analyze the effects of a tax on vehicle insurance levied in Sweden in 2007. The analysis is based on a large set of micro-level panel data on individual insurance holders at the largest insurance company in Sweden for the period 2006-2010. Two questions are addressed: How did the tax reform influence the choice of insurance coverage, and how did changes in coverage affect the incidence of claims? The results show that, on average, the tax reform increased the odds of choosing lower insurance coverage by 47 percent, and that the tax reform had more impact on older drivers. However, switching to lower coverage due to the tax reform has not resulted in significant changes in claim distributions, though the incidence of claims decreased by 20 percent for switchers aged 35-44 in the pre-reform period, indicating a mitigation of ex ante moral hazard in vehicle insurance. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle insurance; Moral hazard; Traffic safety; Tax reform |
| JEL: | C33 C54 D82 H20 L51 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_014&r=neu |
| By: | Wenbiao Cai; B. Ravikumar; Raymond Riezman |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with a classic development question: how can the process of economic development – transition from stagnation in a traditional technology to industrialization and prosperity with a modern technology – be accelerated? Lewis (1954) and Rostow (1956) argue that the pace of industrialization is limited by the rate of capital formation which in turn is limited by the savings rate of workers close to subsistence. We argue that access to capital goods in the world market can be quantitatively important in speeding up the transition. We develop a parsimonious open-economy model where traditional and modern technologies coexist (a dual economy in the sense of Lewis (1954)). We show that a decline in the world price of capital goods in an open economy increases the rate of capital formation and speeds up the pace of industrialization relative to a closed economy that lacks access to cheaper capital goods. In the long run, the investment rate in the open economy is twice as high as in the closed economy and the per capita income is 23 percent higher. |
| Keywords: | Economic development ; Economic conditions |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2013-025&r=neu |
| By: | Polterovich, Victor |
| Abstract: | I discuss goals of institutional experimentation as well as obstacles for its realization. The special attention is given to regional experiments. Institutional experiment reduces transformation costs, in particular, by diminishing probability of formation of erroneous reforms trap. The analyses of introduction of a pay-as-you-go pension component in several tens of countries and the history of introduction of the Unified State Examination in Russia show the importance of planning the experiments in advance and using objective procedures of assessment of their results. The reasons for adopting a law on the institutional experiment are given. |
| Keywords: | interim institution; transformational cost; line of institutions; Unified State Examination; pension reform; evaluation of an experiment |
| JEL: | D02 E02 H75 L85 O1 P5 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50071&r=neu |
| By: | Frank Maier-Rigaud (IESEG School of Management (LEM-CNRS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper critically reviews the European Commission’s proposed Directive on future rules concerning actions for damages for competition law infringements under national law. It is argued that the proposal underestimates the importance of loss of profits induced by increased prices and does little in ensuring that such effects will receive an equal treatment to price effects in damage claims. The paper suggests that the importance of such effects could have been emphasized by introducing a rebuttable presumption on lucrum cessans based on pass-on considerations – paralleling the presumption on overcharge. Furthermore, the decision to leave questions of causality to national tort laws is criticized as a harmonized regulation of claims based on the merits of the evidence presented would have been a superior tool, in line with a more economic approach and better suited for achieving the goal of compensation for any victim due to its intrinsic flexibility. Finally the notion that legally relevant damages only accrue within a vertical value chain is challenged. |
| Keywords: | quantification of damages, pass-on, passing-on defence, overcharge, unjust enrichment, private enforcement, lucrum cessans, quantity effect, damnum emergens, price effect, burden of proof, standard of proof, tort law, compensation, presumption |
| JEL: | K21 K40 L40 |
| Date: | 2013–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201316&r=neu |
| By: | Amighini, Alessia (Università del Piemonte Orientale); Cozza, Claudio (Università del Piemonte Orientale); Giuliani , Elisa (Università di Pisa, Italy); Rabellotti, Roberta (Università di Pavia); Scalera, Vittoria (Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | In the past century we have witnessed worldwide a growing flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which have attracted the attention of economists, international business and development scholars. In this scenario, two trends have recently gained momentum: the increasing relevance of Technology-driven FDI (TFDI) and the upsurge of Emerging Economies’ Multinational Enterprises (EMNEs) investing in advanced countries. In this paper, we present a survey of the relevant literature on TFDI, with a focus on both AMNEs and EMNEs. After presenting the different phases of TFDI from Advanced Economy Multinational Enterprises (AMNEs), we focus on EMNEs and discuss the usefulness and limitations of the existing theoretical frameworks to interpret this new phenomenon. Next, the paper reviews the literature on EMNEs’ sources of competitive advantages and their main motivations for investing abroad. Finally, the paper explores the peculiarities of TFDI from emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investments; Technology Driven Foreign Investments; Emerging Countries |
| JEL: | F23 O32 |
| Date: | 2013–09–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_017&r=neu |
| By: | Ejermo, Olof (CIRCLE, Lund University); Xiao, Jing (CIRCLE, Lund University and Department of Economic History, Lund University, Sweden) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between the survival performance of new technologybased firms (NTBFs) over the business cycle and compare them against other entrepreneurial firms. Our data comprise the entire population of entrepreneurial firms entering the Swedish economy from 1991 to 2002, which we follow until 2007. Discrete-time duration models are employed to investigate whether the business cycle impacts differently on the survival likelihood of NTBFs vs. other entrepreneurial firms. Our main findings are three. First, NTBFs generally experience a lower hazard rate compared to other entrepreneurial firms. Second, all entrepreneurial firms are sensitive to, and follow a pro-cyclical pattern of survival likelihood over the business cycle. Three, when comparing NTBFs with firms without self-employees we find that NTBFs are more sensitive to business cycle fluctuations |
| Keywords: | new technology-based firms; exit; survival probability; the business cycle; discrete-time duration models; Sweden |
| JEL: | E32 L25 L26 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_019&r=neu |
| By: | Céline BONNEFOND; Matthieu CLEMENT; François COMBARNOUS |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to identify and characterize the Chinese urban middle class. We propose to improve the description of the middle class using an innovative approach combining an economic approach (based on income) and a sociological approach (based on education and occupation). The empirical investigations conducted as part of this research are based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey (2009). First, we define the middle income class as households with an annual per capita income between 10,000 yuan and the 95th percentile. On this basis, approximately fifty percent of urban households may be said to belong to the middle class. Second, we use information on employment and education to characterize the heterogeneity of the middle income class. Using clustering methods, we identify four groups: (i) the elderly and the inactive middle class, mainly composed of pensioners; (ii) the old middle class, composed of self-employed workers; (iii) the marginal middle class, composed of skilled and unskilled workers; and (iv) the new middle class, composed of highly educated wage earners in the public sector. We show that the different groups have distinctive features based on variables such as housing and household appliances and equipment. |
| Keywords: | social stratification, income distribution, middle class, urban China, clustering methods. |
| JEL: | O53 P25 P36 Z13 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2013-19&r=neu |
| By: | Rodrigo Martins (GEMF/ Faculty of Economics University of Coimbra, Portugal); Francisco José Veiga (NIPE/ University of Minho, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of voter turnout on the vote shares received by the incumbent government. A system of simultaneous equations is estimated using a panel dataset of 278 Portuguese municipalities, for the period 1979-2005, covering 10 legislative elections. The results indicate that right-wing governments have lower vote shares when turnout is higher, while left-wing ones seem to be unaffected. There is also evidence of the responsibility hypothesis, that turnout is higher in closer elections, and that regional/local economic variables have non-linear effects on turnout. |
| Keywords: | Vote Shares, Turnout, Legislative Elections, Portugal. |
| JEL: | D72 H7 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2013-20.&r=neu |
| By: | Layal Mansour (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to evaluate the economic consequences on the countries that on one hand protect themselves from future financial crises by accumulating international reserves (IR) while on the other hand expose themselves to severe financial crisis due to their excessive internal and/or external public debt. Using the Financial Stress Indicator (FSI) proposed by Balakrishnan et al (2009) and IMF -which cover several aspects of financial crisis- and by applying the Markov switching model with time varying, we estimated the probability whether an indebted country is vulnerable to crises despite its accumulation of IR -acting as a buffer stock and self-insurance-. We studied the case of five emerging countries in Asia and Latin America that had increased both of their IR and public debts, and found that debt had increased the likelihood for a country to suffer from financial crisis, however IR did not necessarily provide “Peace” in the indebted countries except of some exceptions. We conclude that although debt and international reserves have theoretically opposite economic concerns for a country, the deleterious effects of debts might outweigh in most cases the beneficial effects of IR |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, International Reserves, External Debts, Financial Crisis, Financial Stress Indicator |
| JEL: | C22 E52 F31 G01 H63 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1329&r=neu |
| By: | J. Herstad , Sverre (University of Agder); Ebersberger , Bernd (MCI Management Center Innsbruck,Austria) |
| Abstract: | Knowledge intensive business services firms can play a key role in modern economies by linking localized collaboration networks to global knowledge flows, and by actively serving in support of knowledge diffusion across institutional and sectoral divides. The extent to which they do is dependent on the markets, partners and human resources available locally. This paper uses the unique establishment-level innovation data available in Norway to investigate whether location in urban labour market regions influences the geographical scope of collaborative linkages maintained within and outside the realm of clients. It proceeds to consider whether the diversity of partner types used locally, domestically and abroad differ between locations. |
| Keywords: | knowledge intensive business services; urban economies; collaboration; internationalization |
| JEL: | L80 O31 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2013_021&r=neu |
| By: | Du Rietz, Gunnar (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Johansson, Dan (Örebro University School of Business); Stenkula, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents annual Swedish time series data on the top marginal tax wedge and marginal tax wedges on labor for a low, average and high income earner for the period 1862 to 2010. We identify four distinct periods separated by major tax reforms. The tax system can be depicted as proportional, with low tax wedges until World War II. Next follows a period featuring increasing tax wedges beginning in connection with World War II. During the third period, starting with the 1971 tax reform and continuing throughout the 1980s, the efforts to redistribute income culminated and tax wedges peaked. The high income earner started to pay the top marginal tax wedge which could be 90 percent. The main explanations for this development are temporary crises leading to permanent tax increases, expansion of the public sector and distributional ambitions, bracket-creep and the introduction of social security contributions paid by the employers. The 1990–1991 tax reform represents the beginning of a new and still continuing period with decreasing marginal tax wedges. |
| Keywords: | Labor taxation; Marginal tax rate; Marginal tax wedge; Tax reforms |
| JEL: | H21 H31 N44 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0977&r=neu |
| By: | Magomet Yandiev; Alexander Pakhalov |
| Abstract: | The article presents calculations that prove practical importance of the earlier derived theoretical relationship between the interest rate on the interbank credit market, volume of investment and the quantity of securities tradable on the stock exchange. |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1309.5703&r=neu |