| Abstract: |
Experimental evidence suggest that people only use 1-3 iterations of strategic
reasoning, and that some people systematically use less iterations than
others. In this paper, we present a novel evolutionary foundation for these
stylized facts. In our model, agents interact in finitely repeated Prisoner's
Dilemma, and each agent is characterized by the number of steps he thinks
ahead. When two agents interact, each of them has an independent probability
to observe the opponent's type. We show that if this probability is not too
close to 0 or 1, then the evolutionary process admits a unique stable outcome,
in which the population includes a mixture of “naive” agents who think 1 step
ahead, and “sophisticated” agents who think 2-3 steps ahead. |