| Abstract: |
In this paper we propose a model of natural recovery, a widespread yet
unexplained aspect of addictive behavior, starting from the recent theory
developed by Bernheim and Rangel (2004). While the Bernheim and Rangel model
generates many distinctive patterns of addiction, it does not explicitly
consider pathways to natural recovery. Based on insights from neurosciences,
we introduce an ”implicit cognitive appraisal” process depending on past
experiences as well as on future expected consequences of addictive
consumption. Such function affects the individual in two ways: it erodes the
payoff from use as the decision maker grows older and it increases the
cognitive control competing with the hedonic impulses to use, thus reducing
the probability of making mistakes. While we do recognize the importance of
allowing for cue-triggered mistakes in individual decision making, our model
recovers an important role for cognitive processes, such as subjective
cost-benefit evaluations, in explaining natural recovery. |