|
on Network Economics |
| By: | Johannes Buggle (University of Innsbruck); Max Deter (Max Deter Berlin School of Economics, University of Potsdam, CEPA); Martin Lange (ZEW Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how network ties between local social leaders influenced the diffusion of mass protests in an autocracy. We focus on the Protestant Church and the Peaceful Revolution in East Germany. To quantify the role of leader networks in protest diffusion, we compile biographical records of over 1, 600 Protestant pastors, including their employment and education histories. Our findings reveal that network connections led to an increase in protest diffusion by up to 4.9 percentage points in a given week. Moreover, we highlight the importance of network centrality, pastors as information bridges, and the interaction with preexisting grievances and repression. |
| Keywords: | autocracy, religion, protests, networks, leaders |
| JEL: | D72 D74 N44 P16 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:87 |
| By: | Anah\'i Rodr\'iguez-Mart\'inez; Silvia Bartolucci; Francesco Caravelli; Victoria Landaberry; Pierpaolo Vivo; Fabio Caccioli |
| Abstract: | Understanding how credit flows through inter-firm networks is critical for assessing financial stability and systemic risk. In this study, we introduce DebtStreamness, a novel metric inspired by trophic levels in ecological food webs, to quantify the position of firms within credit chains. By viewing credit as the ``primary energy source'' of the economy, we measure how far credit travels through inter-firm relationships before reaching its final borrowers. Applying this framework to Uruguay's inter-firm credit network, using survey data from the Central Bank, we find that credit chains are generally short, with a tiered structure in which some firms act as intermediaries, lending to others further along the chain. We also find that local network motifs such as loops can substantially increase a firm's DebtStreamness, even when its direct borrowing from banks remains the same. Comparing our results with standard economic classifications based on input-output linkages, we find that DebtStreamness captures distinct financial structures not visible through production data. We further validate our approach using two maximum-entropy network reconstruction methods, demonstrating the robustness of DebtStreamness in capturing systemic credit structures. These results suggest that DebtStreamness offers a complementary ecological perspective on systemic credit risk and highlights the role of hidden financial intermediation in firm networks. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.01326 |
| By: | Giulio Bottazzi; Daniele Giachini; Eleonora Priori |
| Abstract: | We develop a general equilibrium production network model that spans two periods and incorporates heterogeneous households, firm-specific Cobb-Douglas production technologies, and a time-to-build mechanism for capital formation. Within this dynamic framework, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a competitive equilibrium and provide explicit analytical solutions for key economic variables. In particular, we derive closed-form expressions for the welfare and real interest rate effects of supply-side shocks occurring at different points in time. We calibrate the model using input-output data from the Italian economy, identifying key structural features such as the prominent roles of the real estate, food, and tourism-related sectors. We then extend the calibration to incorporate household heterogeneity by skill level and examine the consequences in terms of welfare and real interest rates of a climate-related productivity shock. This shock is sector-specific, time-dependent, and scaled according to differential exposure to climate risks. Our results show that climate-induced negative supply-side shocks generate disproportionate welfare losses for low-skilled households and induce nontrivial adjustments in real interest rates across sectors. |
| Keywords: | Production Network; Capital Formation; Heterogeneous Agents; Two-date Model |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/22 |
| By: | Nurbanu Bursa |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies, particularly the MINT countries (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and T\"urkiye), are gaining influence in global stock markets, although they remain susceptible to the economic conditions of developed countries like the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States). This interconnectedness and sensitivity of financial markets make understanding these relationships crucial for investors and policymakers to predict stock price movements accurately. To this end, we examined the main stock market indices of G7 and MINT countries from 2012 to 2024, using a recent graph neural network (GNN) algorithm called multivariate time series forecasting with graph neural network (MTGNN). This method allows for considering complex spatio-temporal connections in multivariate time series. In the implementations, MTGNN revealed that the US and Canada are the most influential G7 countries regarding stock indices in the forecasting process, and Indonesia and T\"urkiye are the most influential MINT countries. Additionally, our results showed that MTGNN outperformed traditional methods in forecasting the prices of stock market indices for MINT and G7 countries. Consequently, the study offers valuable insights into economic blocks' markets and presents a compelling empirical approach to analyzing global stock market dynamics using MTGNN. |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2506.01945 |
| By: | Sergio Palomeque |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the processes of generating new technical knowledge, aim- ing to contribute to an understanding of how less developed economies can diversify their knowledge base to support economic development. We study the structure of relatedness of required knowledge between technologies at a global level, conceived as a network where technologies are connected according to the intensity with which they co-occur in the inventors’ portfolios. Based on this, topological characteristics of the network are studied using node-level metrics to propose diversification strate- gies that alleviate the lock-in effects suffered by less developed economies. The paper contributes to the literature by proposing two indicators that can be used to analyse relevant dimensions of the innovation system of cities in less developed regions. One of the indicators enables us to compare the levels of stability of the technologies that comprise the knowledge base of the cities. The second provides a measure of the level of alternatives available to the city for each diversification decision. The results, based on the analysis of Latin American cities, show that the stability of the technologies present in a city, as well as the alternatives available to choose its diversification path, are relevant to designing diversification strategies that could contribute to overcoming the constraints generated by the characteristics of the knowledge base of those cities. |
| Keywords: | relatedness; innovation systems; patents; cities; Latin America; Evolu- tionary Economic Geography |
| JEL: | B52 D85 O31 O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2515 |
| By: | Papastaikoudis, I.; Watson, J.; Lestas, I. |
| Abstract: | We present a distributed portfolio construction framework based in network structures and combinatorial optimization. Unlike traditional centralized methods, our approach decomposes the portfolio under consideration into overlapping sub-portfolios, each reflecting a thematic strategy or mandate. This decomposition is guided by the powerset of the available set of assets, capturing all meaningful groupings and inducing a hypergraph structure where assets appear in multiple sub-portfolios. We solve the resulting distributed portfolio optimization problem using a primal-dual algorithm: primal variables represent subportfolio allocations, while dual variables emerge as shadow prices on coupling assets, offering a natural pricing interpretation and a link to microeconomic theory (general equilibrium). The framework integrates both internal portfolio signals and external models such as CAPM. We illustrate the methodology using GICS sector ETFs, constructing sub-portfolios aligned with macroeconomic themes. |
| Keywords: | Network Portfolio Theory, Mean Variance Distributed Optimization, Decentralized Pricing |
| JEL: | C61 C62 G11 G12 D85 |
| Date: | 2025–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camjip:2513 |
| By: | Mr. JaeBin Ahn; Brandon Tan |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a new multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze extent to which the diversification of sources of imports mitigates the impact of adverse trade shocks. The model incorporates trade network rigidities arising from frictions in goods, labor, and local factor markets. Because countries cannot immediately reconfigure supply chains in response to shocks, supply chain diversification can potentially improve resilience, at the cost of efficiency. Quantifying the resilience-efficiency trade-off suggests that diversifying the sources of targeted imports—those more exposed to shocks, positioned upstream in the supply chain, and subject to greater rigidities—can enhance expected welfare when the probability of a large trade shock is sufficiently high. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Supply Chains; Diversification |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/102 |
| By: | Hutschenreiter, Dennis; Liu, Qianshuo |
| Abstract: | Institutional common ownership of firm pairs in the same industry increases the likelihood of a preexisting social connection among their CEOs. We establish this relationship using a quasi-natural experiment that exploits institutional mergers combined with firms' hiring events and detailed information on CEO biographies. In addition, for peer firms, gaining a CEO connection from a hiring firm's CEO appointment correlates with higher returns on assets, stock market returns, and decreasing product similarity between companies. We find evidence consistent with common owners allocating CEO connections to shape managerial decision-making and increase portfolio firms' performance. |
| Keywords: | CEO appointments, CEO connections, common ownership, firm performance, product similarity |
| JEL: | G23 G32 G34 L21 L22 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:319068 |