nep-net New Economics Papers
on Network Economics
Issue of 2023‒01‒09
23 papers chosen by
Alfonso Rosa García
Universidad de Murcia

  1. Religiosity structures social networks in a Tibetan population By Ge, Erhao; Cairang, Dongzhi; Mace, Ruth
  2. Selection, Consumption, and New Music Exploration in an Online Social Network: A Dyadic Approach By Johannes Loh
  3. Network Effects: Betwixt and Between By Mohammed Mardan; Mark J. Tremblay
  4. When is a matrix a geographical network? By Neal, Zachary P.; Derudder, Ben; van Meeteren, Michiel
  5. The network structure of global tax evasion Evidence from the Panama Papers By Garcia Alvarado Fernando; Mandel Antoine
  6. Social Networks, Gender Norms and Women's Labor Supply: Experimental Evidence Using a Job Search Platform By Afridi, Farzana; Dhillon, Amrita; Roy, Sanchari; Sangwan, Nikita
  7. Formation of trade networks by economies of scale and product differentiation By Chengyuan Han; Malte Schr\"oder; Dirk Witthaut; Philipp C. B\"ottcher
  8. Social Networks and the Labour Market By Afridi, Farzana; Dhillon, Amrita
  9. Compacter networks as a defensive mechanism: How firms clustered during 2015 Financial Crisis in China By Yujue Wang
  10. Endogenous Network Valuation Adjustment and the Systemic Term Structure in a Dynamic Interbank Model By Zachary Feinstein; Andreas Sojmark
  11. Reference Dependent Aspirations and Peer Effects in Education By Fongoni, Marco; Norris, Jonathan; Romiti, Agnese; Shi, Zhan
  12. Social Media Influence Mainstream Media: Evidence from Two Billion Tweets By Julia Cagé; Nicolas Hervé; Béatrice Mazoyer
  13. Peer Effects in Academic Research: Senders and Receivers By Clément Bosquet; Pierre-Philippe Combes; Emeric Henry; Thierry Mayer
  14. The spatial determinants of innovation diffusion: evidence from global shipping networks By César Ducruet; Hidekazu Itoh
  15. On competition for spatially distributed resources in networks: an extended version By Giorgio Fabbri; Silvia Faggian; Giuseppe Freni
  16. Improving Early Childhood Development Outcomes in Times of COVID-19: Experimental Evidence on Parental Networks and SMS Messages By Hernández Agramonte, Juan Manuel; Namen, Olga; Näslund-Hadley, Emma; Biehl, María Loreto
  17. Female Neighbors, Test Scores, and Careers By Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Yi Zhang
  18. No evidence of direct peer influence in upper-secondary track choice—Evidence from Hungary By Tamás Keller
  19. Agglomeration and emigration: The economic impact of railways in post-Famine Ireland By Fernihough, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.
  20. Ownership Networks and Labor Income By Huneeus, Federico; Larrain, Borja; Larrain, Mauricio; Prem, Mounu
  21. Understanding stock market instability via graph auto-encoders By Dragos Gorduza; Xiaowen Dong; Stefan Zohren
  22. Peer-to-peer solar and social rewards: Evidence from a field experiment By Stefano Carattini; Kenneth Gillingham; Xiangyu Meng; Erez Yoeli
  23. Editing a Woman's Voice By Anna Costello; Ekaterina Fedorova; Zhijing Jin; Rada Mihalcea

  1. By: Ge, Erhao; Cairang, Dongzhi; Mace, Ruth
    Abstract: Many have attempted to explain the evolutionary origins of religion and some suggest that religiosity promotes cooperation. But the empirical works evaluating the links between religious practices and social cooperative networks have been surprisingly few, and whether religious celibacy helps structure local social support remains to explore. Here, we draw on the religiosity and social support network data among residents of an agricultural Tibetan village to evaluate whether people are more likely to establish supportive relationships with religious individuals and consanguineous kins of celibates, and examine the gender-specific correlations between religiosity and personal network characteristics. We found that religious practices foster social supporting relationships overall. Consanguineous kins of celibate monks enjoy more social acceptance not only by the enhanced probability of having a supportive relationship but also by denser connections among them. Engagement in pilgrimage acts is associated with larger networks for males but not for females, partaking in daily practice correlates with denser networks for both males and females. Particular religious acts may help individuals gain particular types of social network benefits.
    Date: 2022–11–28
  2. By: Johannes Loh
    Abstract: We study peer influence in an online social network on a platform where consumers purchase music albums. They can follow their peers and become informed about their consumption choices. In particular, we are interested in how this affects consumers’ exploration of new music that exhibits unfamiliar attributes (e.g. artist, genre, or instrumentation). Our empirical analysis contains two parts: First, we analyze how the formation of new dyads in the network depends on consumer-peer similarities in their preference for certain album attributes. This affects music exploration because it determines which peer purchases consumers are exposed to. Second, conditional on the determinants of dyad formation, we investigate how within-dyad information flows affect consumers’ purchase decisions, and in particular their exploration of unfamiliar attributes. Our analysis produces three key findings: First, preference similarities between consumers and peers are the strongest predictor of the formation of dyads. This likely stifles consumers’ exploration of new music because it limits their exposure to unfamiliar attributes. Second, we find a strong positive peer effect of consumers observing peer purchases after the formation of a dyad. Third, this effect is stronger for albums from unfamiliar artists, but weaker for those that exhibit unfamiliar horizontal attributes (e.g. its genre). Together, this suggests that new music exploration in online social networks is limited and subject to nuance.
    Keywords: online social networks, consumption choices, peer influence, music consumption
    JEL: D12 D83 L82 L86
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Mohammed Mardan; Mark J. Tremblay
    Abstract: We challenge the dichotomy of network effects and highlight that they are not an exogenous characteristic of networks, but endogenous to the decisions of network users. When users choose which activities to perform in a network, multi-activity users transform indirect into direct network effects and a network effectively becomes one-sided if merely multi-activity users frequent it. Our work contributes to theory by determining the underlying micro-foundations that produce what the literature calls a two-sided market and by highlighting how the standard two-sided pricing results arises only under very specific conditions. We also contribute to estimation by illustrating how the presence of multi-active users can challenge identification in network industries.
    Keywords: platforms, one-sided markets, two-sided markets, multi-siding users
    JEL: L10 L20 D21 D42
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Neal, Zachary P.; Derudder, Ben; van Meeteren, Michiel
    Abstract: All geographical networks can be represented as matrices, but not all matrices in geography represent networks. In this paper, we argue that a matrix must have at least three properties to represent a geographical network. First, the rows and columns must represent nodes defined at a scale that is relevant for the relationship of interest. Second, the matrix entries must represent relationships between nodes that have significance beyond dyads. Third, the values of the matrix entries must be accompanied by evidence or a rationale that they are a valid operationalization of the theoretical relationship of interest. We illustrate the relevance of the three properties through examples from the city networks literature. This contribution will guide scholars to evaluate whether a network analysis of their spatial data matrix is advisable.
    Date: 2022–11–28
  5. By: Garcia Alvarado Fernando; Mandel Antoine (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper builds on recent insights from network theory and on the rich dataset made available by the Panama Papers in order to investigate the micro-economic dynamics of tax-evasion. We model offshore financial entities documented in the Panama Papers as links between jurisdictions in the global network of tax evasion. A quantitative analysis shows that the resulting network, far from being a random collection of bilateral links, has key features of complex networks such as a core-periphery structure and a fat-tail degree distribution. We argue that these structural features imply that policy must adopt a systemic perspective to mitigate tax evasion. We offer three sets of insights from this perspective. First, we identify through centrality measures tax havens that ought to be priority policy targets. Second, we show that efficient tax treaties must contain exchange information clauses and link tax-havens to non-haven jurisdictions. Third, we show that the optimal deterrence strategies for a social-planner facing a strategic tax-evader in a Stackelberg competition can be characterized using the notion of Bonacich centrality.
    Keywords: H26 H87 D85 C54 Tax Evasion Socio-economic Networks Game Theory,H26,H87,D85,C54 Tax Evasion,Socio-economic Networks,Game Theory
    Date: 2022–05
  6. By: Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Dhillon, Amrita (King's College London); Roy, Sanchari (King's College London); Sangwan, Nikita (Indian Statistical Institute)
    Abstract: Using a cluster randomized control trial, we study the role of women's social networks in improving female labor force participation. In the first treatment arm, a hyper-local digital job search platform service was offered to a randomly selected group of married couples (non-network treatment) in low-income neighborhoods of Delhi, India. In the second treatment arm, the service was offered to married couples and the wife's social network (network treatment), to disentangle the network effect. Neither couples nor their networks were offered the service in the control group. Approximately one year after the intervention, we find no increase in the wife's likelihood of working in either treatment group relative to the control group. Instead, there is a significant improvement in their husbands' labor market outcomes, including the likelihood of working, work hours, and monthly earnings, while in contrast home-based self-employment increased among wives – both in the network treatment group. We argue that our findings can be explained by the gendered structure of social networks in our setting, which reinforces (conservative) social norms about women's (outside) work.
    Keywords: social networks, social norms, gender, job-matching platforms, employment
    JEL: J16 J21 J24 O33
    Date: 2022–11
  7. By: Chengyuan Han; Malte Schr\"oder; Dirk Witthaut; Philipp C. B\"ottcher
    Abstract: Understanding the structure and formation of networks is a central topic in complexity science. Economic networks are formed by decisions of individual agents and thus not properly described by established random graph models. In this article, we establish a model for the emergence of trade networks that is based on rational decisions of individual agents. The model incorporates key drivers for the emergence of trade, comparative advantage and economic scale effects, but also the heterogeneity of agents and the transportation or transaction costs. Numerical simulations show three macroscopically different regimes of the emerging trade networks. Depending on the specific transportation costs and the heterogeneity of individual preferences, we find centralized production with a star-like trade network, distributed production with all-to-all trading or local production and no trade. Using methods from statistical mechanics, we provide an analytic theory of the transitions between these regimes and estimates for critical parameters values.
    Date: 2022–12
  8. By: Afridi, Farzana (Indian Statistical Institute); Dhillon, Amrita (King's College London)
    Abstract: This chapter surveys recent literature on social networks and labour markets, with a specific focus on developing countries. It reviews existing research, in particular, on the use of social networks for hiring and the consequences of networks for on-the-job outcomes, including emerging literature on gender and networks. While there is consensus on the prevalence of social networks in job search there is as yet no consensus on the mechanisms for why referrals are so important: an open question is to uncover systematically the conditions under which different mechanisms are relevant. Second, the literature has documented network effects on labour productivity - mostly when there are no externalities between workers. The findings are that the effects of social ties depend very much on the type of production function assumed. An emerging literature examines whether women benefit from referrals as much as men: gender homophily might play a part in some contexts while in others women confront a bias in referrals. Finally, the literature has moved from use of observational data into lab and field experiments to confront better the challenges of identification.
    Keywords: social networks, labor market, search, screening, matching, productivity
    JEL: J16 J41 J31 D82 D83 O12 O15
    Date: 2022–12
  9. By: Yujue Wang
    Abstract: The stock market's reaction to the external risk shock is closely related to the cross-shareholding network structure. This paper takes the public information of listed companies in the A-share securities market as the primary sample to study the relationship between the stock return rate, market performance, and network topology before and after China's stock market crash in 2015. Data visualization and empirical analysis demonstrate that the return rate of stocks is related to the company's traditional business ability and the social capital brought by cross-holding. Several heteroscedasticity tests and endogeneity tests with IV are conducted to support the robustness. The structure of the cross-shareholding network experienced upheaval after the shock, even distorting the effects of market value, and assets holding on the return rate. The enterprises in the entire shareholding network are connected more firmly to overcome systematic external risks. The number of enterprise clusters is significantly reduced during the process. Besides, the number of newly established cross-shareholding relationships shows an outbreak, which may explain the rapid maintenance of stability in the financial system. When stable clustering is formed before and after a stock crash (rather than when it occurs), the clustering coefficient of clear clustering still has an apparent positive influence on the return rate of stocks. To sum up, the compacted network may prevent the firms from pursuing aggressive earning before the financial crisis, but would protect firms from suffering relatively high losses during and after the shock.
    Date: 2022–12
  10. By: Zachary Feinstein; Andreas Sojmark
    Abstract: In this work we introduce an interbank network with stochastic dynamics in order to study the yield curve of bank debt under an endogenous network valuation adjustment. This entails a forward-backward approach in which the future probability of default is required to determine the present value of debt. As a consequence, the systemic model presented herein provides the network valuation adjustment to the term structure for free without additional steps required. We present this problem in two parts: (i) a single maturity setting that closely matches the traditional interbank network literature and (ii) a multiple maturity setting to consider the full term structure. Numerical case studies are presented throughout to demonstrate the financial implications of this systemic risk model.
    Date: 2022–11
  11. By: Fongoni, Marco (Aix Marseille University); Norris, Jonathan (University of Strathclyde); Romiti, Agnese (University of Strathclyde); Shi, Zhan (University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: We study the long-run effects of income inequality within adolescent peer compositions in schools. We propose a theoretical framework based on reference dependence where inequality in peer groups can generate aspiration gaps. Guided by predictions from this framework we find that an increase in the share of low-income peers within school-cohorts improves the educational outcomes of low-income students and has negative effects on high-income students. We further document a range of evidence that corroborates these results, including that they are distinct from peer non-linear ability effects. We then find that social cohesion, through better connections in the school network, has an important role in mitigating the effects of peer inequality. Our results provide evidence on the role of inequality in peer groups for long-run educational outcomes, while also demonstrating that there is potential to avoid these consequences.
    Keywords: inequality, peer effects, education
    JEL: I21 I24 I29 J24
    Date: 2022–12
  12. By: Julia Cagé (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Nicolas Hervé (INA - Institut National de l'Audiovisuel); Béatrice Mazoyer (INA - Institut National de l'Audiovisuel, médialab - médialab (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)
    Abstract: Social media are increasingly influencing society and politics, despite the fact that legacy media remain the most consumed source of news. In this paper, we study the propagation of information from social media to mainstream media, and investigate whether news editors' editorial decisions are influenced by the popularity of news stories on social media. To do so, we build a novel dataset including around 70% of all the tweets produced in French between August 2018 and July 2019 and the content published online by 200 mainstream media outlets. We then develop novel algorithms to identify and link events on social and mainstream media. To isolate the causal impact of popularity, we rely on the structure of the Twitter network and propose a new instrument based on the interaction between measures of user centrality and "social media news pressure" at the time of the event. We show that the social media popularity of a story increases the coverage of the same story by mainstream media. This effect varies depending on the media outlets' characteristics, in particular on whether they use a paywall. Finally, we investigate consumers' reaction to a surge in social media popularity. Our findings shed new light on news production decisions in the digital age and the welfare effects of social media.
    Keywords: Internet, Information spreading, News editors, Network analysis, Social media, Twitter, Text analysis
    Date: 2022–07–30
  13. By: Clément Bosquet (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pierre-Philippe Combes (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Emeric Henry (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR); Thierry Mayer (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research - CEPR)
    Abstract: Using an instrument based on a national contest in France determining researchers' location, we find evidence of peer effects in academia, when focusing on precise groups of senders (producing the spillovers) and receivers (benefiting from the spillovers), defined based on field of specialisation, gender and age. These peer effects are present even outside formal co-authorship relationships. Furthermore, the match between the characteristics of senders and receivers plays a critical role. In particular, men benefit a lot from peer effects provided by other men, while all other types of gender combinations produce spillovers twice as small. Part of the peer effects results from researchers switching research fields.
    Keywords: Economics of science,Peer effects,Research productivity,Gender publication gap
    Date: 2022–11
  14. By: César Ducruet; Hidekazu Itoh
    Abstract: Based on untapped shipping and urban data, this article compares the diffusion of steam and container shipping at the port city level and at the global scale between 1880 and 2008. A temporal and multi-layered network is constructed, including the pre-existing technologies of sailing and breakbulk. The goal is to check the differences a) between innovations and their predecessors and b) between innovations, from an urban network perspective. Main results show that despite certain differences, such as historical context, voyage length, speed of diffusion, and geographical spread, the two innovations share a large quantity of similarities. They both fostered port concentration, were boosted by city size and port connectivity, bypassed upstream port sites, and diverged gradually from older technologies. This research thus contributes to the literature on cities, networks, innovation, and maritime transport.
    Keywords: containerization; maritime transport; port cities; regional disparity; spatial networks; steam shipping; technological change
    JEL: L91 N70 O18 R40
    Date: 2022
  15. By: Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Silvia Faggian (Université de Venise Ca’ Foscari | Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia); Giuseppe Freni (PARTHENOPE - Università degli Studi di Napoli “Parthenope” = University of Naples)
    Abstract: We study the dynamics of the exploitation of a natural resource distributed among and flowing between several nodes connected via a weighted, directed network. The network represents both the locations and the interactions of the resource nodes. A regulator decides to designate some of the nodes as natural reserves where no exploitation is allowed. The remaining nodes are assigned (one-to-one) to players, who will exploit the resource at the node. We show how the equilibrium exploitation and the resource stocks depend on the productivity of the resource sites, on the structure of the connections between the sites, and on the number and the preferences of the agents. The best locations to host nature reserves are identified according to the model's parameters, and we find that they correspond to the most central (in the sense of eigenvector centrality) nodes of a suitably redefined network that considers the nodes' productivity.
    Keywords: Harvesting, Spatial models, Differential games, Nature reserve
    Date: 2022–12–07
  16. By: Hernández Agramonte, Juan Manuel; Namen, Olga; Näslund-Hadley, Emma; Biehl, María Loreto
    Abstract: This paper presents novel evidence of an intervention to foster preschool students cognitive skills during COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a policy experiment that provided preschool student parents with a SMS text message program to support student learning at home. Taking advantage of existing parent networks, we study the direct effect of being selected to receive the SMS text messages, and the spillovers of being part of a parent network. We show that after 15 weeks of intervention, SMS text messages increase student cognitive skills by 0.11 to 0.12 standard deviations. The effect is driven by an increase of parental involvement through the proposed activities. We find no evidence that information is transferred within parent networks.
    Keywords: Education
    JEL: C93 I21 J13 O15
    Date: 2022–01
  17. By: Sofoklis Goulas; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Yi Zhang
    Abstract: How much does your neighbor impact your test scores and career? In this paper, we examine how an observable characteristic of same-age neighbors—their gender—affects a variety of high school and university outcomes. We exploit randomness in the gender composition of local cohorts at birth from one year to the next. In a setting in which school assignment is based on proximity to residential address, we define as neighbors all same-cohort peers who attend neighboring schools. Using new administrative data for the universe of students in consecutive cohorts in Greece, we find that a higher share of female neighbors improves both male and female students’ high school and university outcomes. We also find that female students are more likely to enroll in STEM degrees and target more lucrative occupations when they are exposed to a higher share of female neighbors. We collect rich qualitative geographic data on communal spaces (e.g., churches, libraries, parks, Scouts and sports fields) to understand whether access to spaces of social interaction drives neighbor effects. We find that communal facilities amplify neighbor effects among females.
    Keywords: neighbour gender peer effects, cohort-to-cohort random variation, birth gender composition, geodata, STEM university degrees
    JEL: J16 J24 I24 I26
    Date: 2022
  18. By: Tamás Keller (Computational Social Science - Research Center for Educational and Network Studies, Centre for Social Sciences, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies)
    Abstract: This paper investigates direct peer influence in upper-secondary track choice in the stratified and selective Hungarian educational system and makes two contributions to the literature. First, it tests both peer-contrasting and peer-conforming influences by considering peers’ GPA and endogenous educational choices. Second, the paper investigates mechanisms behind peer-conforming educational choices (such as peers’ normative pressure and information potential), with a focus on two structurally different peer relationships: self-selected friends and randomly assigned deskmates. The study uses a unique dataset that merges administrative data with randomized field experiment data. The results show no evidence of peer influence, after accounting for unobserved classroom homogeneity. Within the classroom, peers’ ability did not decrease, and peers’ ambitious endogenous educational choices did not increase students’ own choice of the academic upper-secondary track. Concerning the mechanisms of peer-conforming educational choices, the results reveal that peers’ informational potential (but not their normative pressure) might be the mechanism that drives students to conform to peers’ choices. This paper interprets the absence of peer influence in upper-secondary track choices as evidence that peer influence cannot derail students’ socially determined educational choices.
    Keywords: upper-secondary track choice, peer influence, application behavior, social contrast and conformity, deskmates, educational choice
    JEL: C93 I21 Z13
    Date: 2022–10
  19. By: Fernihough, Alan; Lyons, Ronan C.
    Abstract: Ireland developed one of the world's most intensive railroad networks in the second half of the 19th century. However, the emergence of railroads occurred in tandem with a failure to industrialize and mass depopulation suggesting limited, if any, impact on the island's economy. This paper examines this claim from a trade-based market-access perspective. Matching high-resolution geospatial data for nearly 3,400 districts to existing road and waterway networks as well as Ireland's nascent railroad network, we quantify the extent of market access improvements caused by rail. Additionally, we compute an external market access measure that accounts for improved access to international ports. Our findings reveal that this distinction is vital. Improvements in domestic market access brought about by railroads had a substantial positive influence on both population density and land values, while better access to ports had the opposite, negative, effect. Overall, these conflicting forces cancel out, hiding rail's importance. However, a supplementary analysis reveals that the introduction of rail fostered a significant reorientation within the economy across two key domains: emigration and the labour-intensiveness of agriculture. Areas with relatively more access to ports experienced greater levels of emigration and a faster switch from labor-intensive tillage to pastoral farming-with differential access explaining around two-fifths of the observed shift in both variables between the Great Famine and the Great War.
    Keywords: Ireland,Railways,Market Access,Emigration
    JEL: N14 N94 O18 R12 R4
    Date: 2022
  20. By: Huneeus, Federico; Larrain, Borja; Larrain, Mauricio; Prem, Mounu
    Abstract: We document a novel relationship between networks of firms linked through ownership (i.e., business groups) and labor income using matched employer-employee data for Chile. Business group affiliation is associated with higher wages, even after controlling for firm size and individual worker effects. The group premium is stronger for top workers; hence, group firms have higher wage dispersion. The premium remains present when comparing group firms and matched stand-alone firms, and in within-firm comparisons using transitions in and out of groups. Our results are consistent with workers reaching higher productivity and wages by leveraging their skills on the group’s organizational structure.
    Date: 2022–12–14
  21. By: Dragos Gorduza; Xiaowen Dong; Stefan Zohren
    Abstract: Understanding stock market instability is a key question in financial management as practitioners seek to forecast breakdowns in asset co-movements which expose portfolios to rapid and devastating collapses in value. The structure of these co-movements can be described as a graph where companies are represented by nodes and edges capture correlations between their price movements. Learning a timely indicator of co-movement breakdowns (manifested as modifications in the graph structure) is central in understanding both financial stability and volatility forecasting. We propose to use the edge reconstruction accuracy of a graph auto-encoder (GAE) as an indicator for how spatially homogeneous connections between assets are, which, based on financial network literature, we use as a proxy to infer market volatility. Our experiments on the S&P 500 over the 2015-2022 period show that higher GAE reconstruction error values are correlated with higher volatility. We also show that out-of-sample autoregressive modeling of volatility is improved by the addition of the proposed measure. Our paper contributes to the literature of machine learning in finance particularly in the context of understanding stock market instability.
    Date: 2022–12
  22. By: Stefano Carattini; Kenneth Gillingham; Xiangyu Meng; Erez Yoeli
    Abstract: Observability has been demonstrated to influence the adoption of pro-social behavior in a variety of contexts. This study implements a field experiment to examine the influence of observability in the context of a novel pro-social behavior: peer-to-peer solar. Peer-to-peer solar offers an opportunity to households who cannot have solar on their homes to access solar energy from their neighbors. However, unlike solar installations, peer-to-peer solar is an invisible form of pro-environmental behavior. We implemented a set of randomized campaigns using Facebook ads in the Massachusetts cities of Cambridge and Somerville, in partnership with a peer-to-peer company. In the campaigns, treated customers were informed that they could share "green reports" online, providing information to others about their greenness. We find that interest in peer-to-peer solar increases by up to 30% when "green reports," which would make otherwise invisible behavior visible, are mentioned in the ads.
    Keywords: Peer to peer solar; pro-environmental behavior; social rewards; visibility; Facebook
    JEL: C93 D91 Q20
    Date: 2022–12
  23. By: Anna Costello; Ekaterina Fedorova; Zhijing Jin; Rada Mihalcea
    Abstract: Do societal pressures encourage women to be more uncertain than their male counterparts? We explore this question in the context of academic publishing, by examining the evolution of cautionary language used in manuscripts over the course of the review process. Comparing pre-submission versions of manuscripts to their published versions reveals a robust pattern: in first drafts of academic manuscripts, male and female authors write with similar levels of uncertainty. However, when we trace those early drafts to their published versions, an 11 point gap in uncertainty arises. We take a multi-method approach to isolate the role of gender in changes in uncertainty, including extensive control variables and fixed effects, and by training an NLP model to simulate all-else-equal counterfactual observations. Finally, we explore the role of individual editors in contributing to the gender gap in changes in uncertainty; we do so by constructing a network of author-to-editor matches that allow us to extract editor-specific fixed effects, capturing how a particular editor influences female-authored papers relative to male-authored papers (the editor's author-gender gap). We find considerable variation in editors' author-gender gaps and find that these editor-specific effects account for significant variation in the changes in uncertainty of an article through the review process. Finally, we show that an editor's author-gender gap correlates with observable editor characteristics such as societal norms in their country-of-origin, their work history, and the year that they obtained their PhD. Overall, our study speaks to the critical role of editors in shaping how female academics communicate.
    Date: 2022–12

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