|
on Network Economics |
| By: | Barz, Andreas; Buer, Tobias; Haasis, Hans-Dietrich |
| Abstract: | Additive manufacturing (AM), or nonstandard 3D printing, disseminates in more and more production processes. This changes not only the production processes, e.g. subtractive production technologies are replaced, but will in all likelihood impact the configuration of supply networks. Due to a more efficient use of raw materials, transportation relations may change and production sites may be relocated. How this change will look like is part of an ongoing discussion in industry and academia. However, quantitative studies on this question are scarce. In order to quantify the potential impact of AM on a two-stage supply network, we use a facility location model. The impact of AM on the production process is integrated into the model by varying resource efficiency ratios. We create a test data set of 308 instances. Features of this test set are different geographical clusters of source nodes, production nodes, and customers nodes. By means of a computational study, the impact of AM on the supply network structure is measured by four indicators. In the context of our study, AM reduces the overall transportation costs of a supply network. However, the share of the transportation costs on the second stage of a supply network in the total costs increases significantly. Therefore, supply networks in which production sites and customer sites are closely spaced improve their cost effectiveness stronger than other regional configurations of supply networks. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bclgwp:2&r=net |
| By: | Giacomo De Giorgi; Anders Frederiksen; Luigi Pistaferri |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study consumption network effects. Does the consumption of our peers affect our own consumption? How large is such effect? What are the economic mechanisms behind it? We use long panel data on the entire Danish population to construct a measure of consumption based on administrative tax records on income and assets. We combine tax record data with matched employer-employee data so that we can construct peer groups based on workplace, which gives us a much tighter, precise, and credible definition of networks than used in previous literature. We use the available data to construct peer groups that do not perfectly overlap, and as such provide valid instruments derived from the network structure of one's peers group. The longitudinal nature of our data also allow us to estimate fixed effects models, which help us tackle reflection, self-selection, and common-shocks issues all at once. We estimate non-negligible and statistically significant endogenous and exogenous peer effects. Estimated effects are quite relevant for policies as they generate non-negligible multiplier effect. We also investigate what mechanisms generate such effects, distinguishing between "keeping up with the Joneses", a status model, and a more traditional risk sharing view. |
| JEL: | D12 D91 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22357&r=net |
| By: | OKUBO Toshihiro; OKAZAKI Tetsuji; TOMIURA Eiichi |
| Abstract: | Cluster policy is designed to facilitate inter-firm networking. We examine industrial clusters in Japan based on firm-level transaction data. Firms in clusters expand transaction networks at higher speeds, but do so significantly only with firms agglomerated in Tokyo and not with local firms within the same region. By disaggregating firms according to their main bank types, we find that cluster firms expanding networks are mainly financed by regional banks and not by banks with nationwide operations. This suggests the importance of intensive relationships with main banks for inter-firm network formation. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:16071&r=net |
| By: | Teruyoshi Kobayashi (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University); Naoki Masuda (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | A practical approach to protecting networks against epidemic processes such as spreading of infectious diseases, malware, and harmful viral information is to remove some influential nodes beforehand to fragment the network into small components. Because determining the optimal order to remove nodes is a computationally hard problem, various approximate algorithms have been proposed to efficiently fragment networks by sequential node removal. Morone and Makse proposed an algorithm employing the non-backtracking matrix of given networks, which outperforms various existing algorithms. In fact, many empirical networks have community structure, compromising the assumption of local tree-like structure on which the original algorithm is based. We develop an immunization algorithm by synergistically combining the Morone-Makse algorithm and coarse graining of the network in which we regard a community as a supernode. In this way, we aim to identify nodes that connect different communities at a reasonable computational cost. The proposed algorithm works more efficiently than the Morone-Makse and other algorithms on networks with community structure. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1616&r=net |
| By: | Alemanno, Alberto |
| Abstract: | Beyond Networks critically dissects and systematizes an insightful, well-researched and elegantly written account of the democratic potential carried out by coalitions of civil society actors. Once established a case for studying coalitions of civil society organization through the lens of Global Administrative Law, the book eventually unveils its underlying research question. This volume specifically attempts to explain how civil society networks – which are studied within the broader notion of Global Civil Society (GSC) – drive the development of principles of democratic value at the supranational level. It does so within the broader debate about new modes of global governance and in particular that of experimentalist governance. It proceeds to theorize an autonomous organization network model within GSC: the so-called 'interlocutory coalitions'. Those coalitions are typically made of diverse category of entities whose major – sometimes solely – common feature is the cross-border pursuit of a common cause. In order to build an original and valuable taxonomy of civil society networks, interlocutory coalitions must be contrasted to other forms of networks, including social networks, trans-governmental committees, think tanks, Parallel Summits and QUANGOs. After reconstructing their respective composition, membership, rules of governance and legal status, the book delves into interlocutory coalitions' decision-making. How do coalitions presenting high degree of variation when it comes to their mission, governance, funding and membership coalesce around one common cause? How do they come to existence and get along? How can such coalitions speak with one voice when representing and advocating their common position in front of the relevant international organizations? What kind of techniques and deliberative mechanisms are used to attain a common position and then convey it to the outside world? This book provides a rigorous, constructive and promising stepping stone to embark on such a challenging journey. Yet the case for a global participatory democracy remains to be made. |
| Keywords: | Open government; Transparency; Participation; Civic empowerment; Coalitions; Legitimacy; Accountability; Civil society; European Union; Good governance |
| JEL: | K19 K33 |
| Date: | 2016–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1138&r=net |
| By: | De Giorgi, Giacomo; Frederiksen, Anders; Pistaferri, Luigi |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the relevance and mechanics of consumption network effects. We use long panel data on the entire Danish population to construct a measure of consumption based on administrative tax records, and define the peer groups in terms of workplace, occupation, education, and age. We then apply an IV strategy, and fixed effect models, to recover the effects. Our instruments arise naturally from the network structure and firms shocks. The estimated effects are statistically significant and relevant for policies as they generate non- negligible multiplier effect. Further, the results are consistent with a "Keeping-up" model. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11332&r=net |
| By: | Nicol\'o Musmeci; Vincenzo Nicosia; Tomaso Aste; Tiziana Di Matteo; Vito Latora |
| Abstract: | We propose here a multiplex network approach to investigate simultaneously different types of dependency in complex data sets. In particular, we consider multiplex networks made of four layers corresponding respectively to linear, non-linear, tail, and partial correlations among a set of financial time series. We construct the sparse graph on each layer using a standard network filtering procedure, and we then analyse the structural properties of the obtained multiplex networks. The study of the time evolution of the multiplex constructed from financial data uncovers important changes in intrinsically multiplex properties of the network, and such changes are associated with periods of financial stress. We observe that some features are unique to the multiplex structure and would not be visible otherwise by the separate analysis of the single-layer networks corresponding to each dependency measure. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.04872&r=net |
| By: | Angelos Dassios; Jia Wei Lim |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we obtain a recursive formula for the density of the two-sided Parisian stopping time. This formula does not require any numerical inversion of Laplace transforms, and is similar to the formula obtained for the one-sided Parisian stopping time derived in Dassios and Lim [6]. However, when we study the tails of the two distributions, we find that the two-sided stopping time has an exponential tail, while the one-sided stop- ping time has a heavier tail. We derive an asymptotic result for the tail of the two-sided stopping time distribution and propose an alternative method of approximating the price of the two-sided Parisian option. |
| Keywords: | Brownian excursion; double-sided Parisian options; tail asymptotics |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:60154&r=net |
| By: | Nordblom, Tom; Hutchings, Tim; Li, Guangdi; Hayes, Richard; Finlayson, John |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235421&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Peer-to-peer transactions have long played a role in commerce, but today's online platforms enable them on a much greater scale. Early examples include platforms for the sale of goods (e.g. online auction sites). Newer models include the rental of short-term accommodation and transport or mobility services. Sometimes described as the "sharing" economy or "collaborative consumption," this report refers to these innovative businesses as "peer platform markets." In addition to bringing benefits, peer platform markets raise new policy challenges, including consumer protection issues. As a general principle, consumer laws should be considered to apply to the basic offer of services to peers by peer platforms. It can be difficult, however, to apply existing laws to business models that blur the boundaries between consumers and businesses. What is the best approach to provide effective consumer protection while encouraging innovation? This report provides context for considering this and related questions. |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:253-en&r=net |
| By: | Askitas, Nikos (IZA) |
| Abstract: | The more conservative among us believe that "Big Data is a fad that will soon fade out" and they may in fact be partially right. By contrast, others – especially those who dispassionately note that digitization is only now beginning to deliver its payload – may beg to differ. We argue that all things considered, Big Data will likely cease to exist, although this will happen less because it is a fad and more because all data will eventually be Big Data. In this essay, I pose and discuss the question of "how much data do we really need" since everything in life and hence the returns from data increments ought to obey some kind of law of diminishing returns: the more the better, but at some point the gains are not worth the effort or become negative. Accordingly, I discuss small and large, specific and general examples to shed light on this question. I do not exhaustively explore the answers, rather aiming more towards provoking thought among the reader. The main conclusions, nonetheless, are that depending on the use case both a deficit and an abundance of data may be counterproductive, that individuals, data experts, firms or society have different optimization problems whereby nothing will free us from having to reach decisions concerning how much data is enough data and that the greatest challenges that data-intensive societies will face are positive reinforcement, feedback mechanisms and data endogeneity. |
| Keywords: | Big Data, endogeneity, social science, causality, prediction |
| JEL: | C55 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9988&r=net |
| By: | Georgios Petropoulos; J. Scott Marcus |
| Abstract: | On 25 November 2015, the European Union enacted new rules for international mobile roaming (IMR) under Regulation 2015/2120, which seeks to implement a Roam Like at Home (RLAH) regime among the member states of the European Union. Questions remain, however, as to whether it is possible to implement RLAH without mandating below-cost pricing and thus introducing significant regulatory and economic distortions. It is difficult to see how RLAH could be implemented for other than trivial amounts of IMR traffic without significant cross-subsidisation of the IMR service in many different dimensions. Identifying ways to maintain the ubiquity of the IMR service without unduly distorting the economics of European mobile markets and networks would appear to pose serious challenges; the saving grace, however, might well be that IMR revenue now represents a small enough fraction of total mobile revenue (thanks to previous regulation) that the necessary cross-subsidies might be manageable. The European Commission, which is required to assess the situation and to provide legislative proposals by 15 June 2016, faces a daunting task. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:15076&r=net |
| By: | Hopfensitz, Astrid; Mantilla, Cesar; Miquel-Florensa, Josepa |
| Abstract: | We design and conduct a lab-in-the-field experiment to test the effect of a conditional contract on the sustainability of an open access fishery, where unit prices are conditional on aggregate catch. The contract provides collective incentives to decrease extraction but maintain the individual incentives of extraction maximization. We conduct the experiment with two communities of artisanal fishermen differing in their market and technological restrictions. We find that the conditional contract, compared to a fixed price scheme, increases efficiency, the duration of the resource and the total yield. The contract has a greater effect upon groups from the less restricted community. |
| Keywords: | artifactual field experiment, dynamic resource, artisanal fishery, stochastic production function |
| JEL: | C92 Q22 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:30488&r=net |
| By: | Pihlava Matti (Department of Economics, University of Turku) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies Finnish firms and especially it’s boardroom network and the effects that it has on financial actions. Compared with earlier studies, this study also takes into consideration both firms that are not connected and uses them as a natural comparison, as well as principal component membership as a relevant network centrality measure. Based on the firms’ year end reports from 2009 to 2013, the results show that firms that are connected are on average greater in size, invest more but their Return On Investments are lower. Higher network centrality further increases the effects. With firm-specific controls and yearly fixed effects the results seem robust. The magnitude of the results can be ambiguous due to simultaneous endogeneity between the variables. Compared to previous studies, the results are contrary to what has been noted earlier. Seasonal changes or general economic outcomes might explain these results. |
| Keywords: | Network Analysis; Networks; Corporate Governance |
| JEL: | D85 L14 G34 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tkk:dpaper:dp111&r=net |
| By: | Bayrak, Oben |
| Abstract: | Although there are alternative models which can explain the Allais paradox with non-standard preferences, they do not take the emerging evidence on preference imprecision into account. The imprecision is so far incorporated into these models by adding a stochastic specification implying the errors that subjects make. However, there is also the inherent part of the preference imprecision which does not diminish with experience provided in repeated experiments and these stochastic specifications cannot explain a significant portion of the observed behavior in experiments. Moreover, evidence on imprecision suggests that subjects exhibit higher imprecision for a lottery with a higher variance. This paper presents a new model for decision under risk which takes into account the findings of the literature. Looking at the indifference curves predicted by the new model, the new model acts like a mixture of Expected Utility Theory and Rank Dependent Utility Theory depending on which part of the probability triangle the lottery is located. |
| Keywords: | Allais Paradox, Independence Axiom, Preference Imprecision, Anomalies, Decision Theory, Decision under Risk and Uncertainty, Alternative Models |
| JEL: | A1 A10 B0 C0 C9 D0 D00 D01 D02 D03 D04 D10 D11 D8 D80 D81 D83 D89 G0 G02 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71780&r=net |
| By: | GISLEIA BENINI DUARTE; RAUL DA MOTA SILVEIRA; BRENO SAMPAIO |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:167&r=net |
| By: | Matteo Ploner; Viola Saredi |
| Abstract: | The study reports on the agency problem embedded in delegated risky decisions, by analyzing discrepancies in risk-taking and decision quality. It also combines delegation with a description-experience comparison. Subjects deciding on behalf of others tend to make inefficient investment decisions: principals are more ambitious, and make fewer and less dominated choices, irrespective of the process of information acquisition. While principals adapt their effort to the complexity of the situation, agents are reluc- tant to collect information to evaluate prospects. Principals predict agents poor performance and are ready to pay a substantial fee to avoid delegation. However, the fee is generally excessive and negatively impacts on final earnings. These results suggest that principals attitudes and negative beliefs on agents may prevent the emergence of delegation relationships. |
| Keywords: | Description-Experience Gap, delegated decision-making, control premium, risk taking; experiment |
| JEL: | C91 D81 D83 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpce:1606&r=net |
| By: | Astrid Gamba (University of Milan-Bicocca, Department of Economics); Giovanni Immordino (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Salvatore Piccolo (Catholic University of Milan, Department of Economics and Finance and CS) |
| Abstract: | When Legislators award amnesties to “low-rank” criminals cooperating with the justice, top criminals may react by capturing public officials to subvert the law and avoid being sanctioned. Policies that optimally deter crime should anticipate this danger and fight it back by granting amnesties not only to low-rank criminals, but also to officials who plea guilty and report bribe- givers. Indeed, even if the threat of being betrayed by their fellows may induce top criminals to bribe prosecutors, these policies boost the conviction risk not only for top criminals but also for low-rank ones, whereby increasing the risk premium that the latter require to participate in the crime. This higher risk premium increases the reservation wage that top criminals need to pay in order to recruit soldiers, and hence reduces the crime profitability: the bright side of subversion of law. |
| Keywords: | Criminal Organizations, Corruption, Leniency, Subversion of Law. |
| JEL: | K14 K42 D73 D78 |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:446&r=net |
| By: | Ashwini Deshpande |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of an attitude survey administered to university students in India that attempts to delineate the social.psychological mechanisms of .externalization. and .internalization. to understand the possible consequences of stigma associated with caste-based affirmative action (AA). Despite a significant gap in entry scores at admission to a higher educational institution, no significant differences are found in the effort and academic attitudes between students from beneficiary groups and those who get admission through non-reserved/open seats.On a range of questions that evaluate externalization and attitudes towards AA, there are clear and significant differences between caste groups that reveal the presence of stigma through the externalization mechanism; that is, the tendency of peers to evaluate beneficiary performance prejudicially, indicating the prevalence of discriminatory attitudes towards students from target groups. However, there is no evidence of internalization; that is, students from beneficiary groups internalizing their peers. low evaluation, resulting in low self-esteem and lower performance.These findings suggest the need for establishing an anti-discriminatory apparatus inside higher educational institutions to counter stigmatizing attitudes and micro-aggressions against those admitted on the basis of AA. |
| Keywords: | Caste, Education, Higher, Equality and inequality |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-071&r=net |
| By: | Foucault , Thierry; Dessaint , Olivier; Frésard, Laurent; Matray, Adrien |
| Abstract: | Firms reduce investment in response to non-fundamental drops in the stock price of their product-market peers, as predicted by a model in which managers rely on stock prices as a source of information but cannot perfectly filter out noise in prices. The model also implies the response of investment to noise in peers' stock prices should be stronger when these prices are more informative, and weaker when managers are better informed. We find support for these predictions. Overall, our results highlight a new channel through which non-fundamental shocks to the stock prices of some firms influence real decisions of other firms. |
| Keywords: | corporate; investment |
| Date: | 2015–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1127&r=net |
| By: | Bartalotti, Otávio C.; Brummet, Quentin O. |
| Abstract: | Regression Discontinuity designs have become popular in empirical studies due to their attractive properties for estimating causal effects under transparent assumptions. Nonetheless, most popular procedures assume i.i.d. data, which is unreasonable in many common applications. To relax this assumption, we derive the properties of traditional estimators in a setting that incorporates clustering at the level of the running variable, and propose an accompanying optimal-MSE bandwidth selection rule. Simulation results demonstrate that falsely assuming data are i.i.d. may lead to higher MSE due to inadequate bandwidth choice. We apply our procedure to analyze the impact of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits on neighborhood characteristics and low-income housing supply. |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:3393&r=net |
| By: | David Duarte (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Portugal); Tiago Mealha (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | Deep Web is the part of the Internet that is not indexed, not being possible to access through the traditional web search engines. It is necessary to use software that preserves the identity of the users, for instance, Tor, which is the most well-known. Concepts such as Deep Web, Darknet and Dark Web are mistakenly confused but this article will clarify it. Another theme approached is the negative connotation that is usually assigned to the Deep Web phenomenon. Because protects the users’ anonymity, a lot of people take advantage of it to commit illegal businesses, for example drugs and weapons transactions. We reach to the central question of our debate: on the one hand, the Tor software preserves the intimacy of the users’ communications and allows the consult of several articles and blogs that does not exist on the Surface Web; on the other hand the anonymity serves as a tool for the practice of illegal activities. There is a very thin line that separates public space and private space. Tor software reinforces the security of using the Internet. The application that people utilize it is up to them. |
| Keywords: | Deep Web, Internet, Tor, privacy, security |
| JEL: | G02 K49 O34 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieu:wpaper:68&r=net |
| By: | DANILO FREITAS RAMALHO DA SILVA |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:001&r=net |
| By: | Babutsidze, Zakaria |
| Abstract: | We examine the data from illegal downloads of economics content from Sci-Hub over five-month period. The most pirated economics articles and the most pirated economics journals are identified. We analyze the contribution of this particular piracy engine toward open science (economics). We conclude that economics is benefitting from Sci-Hub: (a) as downloads are not pervasive, publishers are not losing much revenues; (b) as downloads are coming mostly from under-developed countries, the exposure to generated knowledge in the discipline has been extended. |
| Keywords: | Sci-Hub, Piracy, Economics |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2016–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71703&r=net |
| By: | Johan Vikström (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Geert Ridder (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University of Southern California); Martin Weidner (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers identif cation of treatment eff ects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment e ffect is point identi fied. Because treated and control units drop out at diff erent rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long run average treatment e ffects are not point identifi ed. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment e ffects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, as e.g. proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds. |
| Keywords: | Partial identification, duration model, randomized experiment, treatment effect |
| JEL: | C14 C41 |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:17/16&r=net |
| By: | Simone Moriconi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore; Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) |
| Abstract: | Taxes levied on production processes (e.g. VAT), are today a very important source of government revenues in developed economies. Theories of optimal taxation conclude that these taxes are detrimental to production efficiency, when firms operate in perfectly competitive markets. These theories draw on the neoclassical approach, which regards firms as single production units. The present paper investigates the effects of taxation on production efficiency, accounting for the organization of an industry. The model shows that a lump-sum tax does not have any effect on the organization of the industry, while a non lump-sum tax can be designed that induces an organizational change of the industry. The paper shows that the effect of this ”tax induced organizational change” on production efficiency ultimately depends on the characteristics of the market. |
| Keywords: | taxation, organizational change, vertical integration, and production efficiency. |
| JEL: | H21 L22 H32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie1:def043&r=net |
| By: | Foucart, Renaud; Friedrichsen, Jana |
| Abstract: | We study a game were two firms compete on investment in order to attract consumers. Below a certain threshold, investment aims at attracting ex-ante indifferent users. Above this threshold firms also compete for users loyal to the other firm. We find that, in equilibrium, firms do not choose their investment deterministically but randomize over two disconnected intervals. These correspond to competing for either the entire population or only the ex-ante indifferent users. While the benefits of attracting users are identical for both firms, the value of remaining passive and not investing at all depends on a firm's loyal base. The firm with the smallest base bids more aggressively to compensate for its lower outside option and achieves a monopoly position with higher probability than its competitor. |
| Keywords: | firms, quality competition, all-pay auction, status-quo bias |
| JEL: | D43 D44 M13 |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72136&r=net |
| By: | MARIA ISABEL BUSATO; MARIO LUIZ POSSAS |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:113&r=net |
| By: | Victoria Ateca-Amestoy (Department of Fundamentos del Análisis Económico II. University of the Basque Country. Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83. 48015, Bilbao (Spain)); Concetta Castiglione (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Bologna, Via delle Belle Arti, 41 - 40126 Bologna (Italy)) |
| Abstract: | Cultural engagement through the internet is becoming a more popular way of cultural participation, as computers and mobile devices are the outlet for more cultural experiences. On the one hand, this may help to access a wider variety of cultural contents in the form of digital goods. On the other hand, the digital divide could further exacerbate the stratification of cultural consumption. Using data from the 2012 Survey of Public Participation in the Arts for the United States, we explain the determinants of cultural participation through digital engagement for highbrow and lowbrow cultural activities, explicitly accounting for the selection in the sample of internet users. Our results suggest different determinants of these two categories, especially for the role played by age and education. |
| Keywords: | Cultural participation, digital engagement, interne cultural consumption, selection, Heckman selection probit model |
| JEL: | Z10 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cue:wpaper:awp-04-2016&r=net |
| By: | Gregory DeAngelo (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Hannes Lang (Evolution Institute); Bryan McCannon (West Virginia University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We explore the relationship between common psychological traits, such as Theory of the Mind, Rational†Experiential Inventory, and Big Five Personality styles, and willingness to contribute to public goods. Then, motivated by research that has indicated a relationship between past social interactions and cooperativeness, we consider the interaction between past game outcomes and psychological traits on free riding. We show that psychological traits of individuals have both a direct effect on free riding behavior, as well as an indirect effect as it enhances the correlation between past strategic behavior and public goods giving. Thus, the measurement tools of social psychology and management can be beneficial in understanding individual†level differences in free riding. |
| Keywords: | Big Five, competence, experiment, free riding, personality traits, psychological traits, public goods, Rational†Experiential Inventory, risk preferences, Theory of Mind |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-08&r=net |
| By: | Eric Heyer (OFCE); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE); Christophe Blot (OFCE); Céline Antonin (OFCE); Amel Falah (OFCE); Sabine Le Bayon (OFCE); Catherine Mathieu (OFCE); Christine Rifflart (OFCE); Sébastien Villemot (OFCE); Mathieu Plane (OFCE); Bruno Ducoudré (OFCE (OFCE)); Pierre Madec (OFCE); Hervé Péléraux (OFCE); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE) |
| Keywords: | Prévisions macroéconmiques |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2qai12cbc90aortg2ur743ahc&r=net |
| By: | Cacho, Oscar; Hester, Susie |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235259&r=net |
| By: | Goerke, Björn; Albers, Sönke |
| Abstract: | Public agencies provide subsidies for small and medium sized businesses (SMEs) to foster their development in terms of employment and sales. Although input and output additionality have been researched intensively little is known about the actual long-term effects of subsidies on SME growth. Relying on a unique dataset of actual SMEs we provide a means of evaluating whether subsidies lead to the expected positive long-term effects. We apply a specifically designed 3-stage-effects-model (3SEM) from the input of resources to the final outcome. The results imply that the effects of subsidies differ across types: While R&D grants unfold enduring positive effects other subsidies like corporate matchmaking might even harm companies. |
| Keywords: | subsidies,additionality,innovation |
| JEL: | L2 H2 O3 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:142164&r=net |
| By: | Fornaro, Paolo; Luomaranta, Henri |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the large literature on the relation between firm size and job creation by examining the effects of dependences between enterprises. Using Finnish monthly data encompassing the population of Finnish private businesses, we calculate gross job creation and destruction, together with net job creation, for different size classes and industries. Importantly, we divide firms into a dependent (i.e. owned, at least partially, by a large company) and independent category. The analysis is based on both a dataset including entry and exit and a sample considering only continuous companies, to control for the effects of firm's age. Due to the quality of the data, we are able to isolate the 'organic' growth of firms, disregarding the effects of mergers and split-offs together with other legal restructurings. We find that independent companies have shown considerably higher net job creation, even after taking age into account. However, dependent firms do not show particularly different behavior with respect to the sensitivity to aggregate conditions, compared to their independent counterparts. |
| Keywords: | Dependencies, Job Creation, Firm-level Data, Large datasets, Employment statistics |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J63 L25 L26 |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71586&r=net |
| By: | Carlianne Patrick (Georgia State University, Department of Economics); Amanda Ross (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Heather Stephens (West Virginia University, Agricultural and Resource Economics) |
| Keywords: | policy development, economic growth, new business |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-04&r=net |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana |
| Abstract: | Online banking using mobile devices (mobile banking) is an effective and convenient way of providing electronic banking facility to customers from anywhere and at any time. The advent of mobile communication technology coupled with a boost in trade and commerce activity is increasingly driving the banking financial services to become ubiquitous, personalized, convenient, disseminative and secure. Realizing the advantages to be gained from mobile banking, financial institutions have begun to offer mobile banking options for their customers in addition to the internet banking they already provide. The large scale use of mobile phones in mobile banking has been closely followed by the increase in mobile fraud. Although eager to use mobile financial services, many subscribers are concerned about the security aspect when carrying out financial transactions over the mobile network. In fact, lack of security is seen as the biggest deterrent to the widespread adoption of mobile financial services. Hence, fraud prevention has become an essential ingredient in the success of online financial transactions. To enhance the security for the online financial transaction, a biometric fingerprint authentication system is proposed. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of an advanced biometric fingerprint authentication system for mobile banking are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Online financial transaction, bio-metric authentication, ubiquitous banking, mobile business. |
| JEL: | G2 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71749&r=net |
| By: | Anonymous |
| Keywords: | Marketing, |
| Date: | 2016–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236860&r=net |
| By: | Rosengren, Eric S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren discussed the outlook for the U.S. economy, and also assessed the impact of quantitative easing and other nontraditional policy tools. |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbsp:108&r=net |
| By: | Yvon Pesqueux (LIRSA - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en Sciences de l'Action - Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM]) |
| Abstract: | Critique politique de l'usage d'une langue unique dans la recherche en sciences de gestion |
| Keywords: | anglais , recherche , sciences de gestion |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:cel-01325250&r=net |
| By: | CLAUDIO ROBERTO AMITRANO; GABRIEL COELHO SQUEFF |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:091&r=net |
| By: | Rubio, Nicolas |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Development, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236600&r=net |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Ralph Hippe (London School of Economics and Political Science, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment) |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:08-16&r=net |
| By: | José Alberto Molina (Departamento de Análisis Económico, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Zaragoza; IZA); Alberto Alcolea (Kampal Data Solutions S.L.); Alfredo Ferrer (Instituto de Biocomputación y Fisica de Sistemas Complejos (BIFI), Zaragoza); Alberto Alcolea (Kampal Data Solutions S.L.); David Iñiguez (Fundación ARAID, Diputación General de Aragón, Zaragoza); Alejandro Rivero (Instituto de Biocomputación y Fisica de Sistemas Complejos (BIFI), Zaragoza); Gonzalo Ruiz (Instituto de Biocomputación y Fisica de Sistemas Complejos (BIFI), Zaragoza); Alfonso Tarancón (Departamento de Física Teórica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | We explore the relationship between collaborations in writing papers and the academic productivity of economists and, particularly, we describe the magnitude and intensity of co-authorship among economists. To that end, we employ interaction maps from Complex Systems methods to study the global properties of specific networks. We use 8,253 JCR papers from ISI-WOK, published by 5,188 economists from Spanish institutions, and their co-authors, up to 8,202 researchers, from 2002 to 2014, to identify and determine the collaborative structure of economics research in Spain, with its primary communities and figures of influence. Our results indicate that centrality and productivity are correlated, particularly with respect to a local estimator of centrality (page rank), and we provide certain recommendations, such as promoting interactions among highly productive authors who have few co-authors with other researchers in their environment, or recommending that authors who may be well-positioned but minimally productive strive to improve their productivity. |
| Keywords: | Co-authorship, Academic productivity, Economists, Interaction maps, Complex networks |
| JEL: | A11 C45 C63 D85 I23 Y91 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:914&r=net |
| By: | Pavlova, N.S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Baulina, A.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shastitko, Andrey E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the issue of the integration of environmental factors in the assessment of agreements on co-operation between competitors in terms of the admissibility of the antimonopoly legislation. The existing institutional environment determines how the different characteristics of different types of environmental externalities affect the possibility of taking them into account, and, ultimately, on their role in deciding on the admissibility of the cooperation agreements. As a result, the positive externalities that have the properties of public goods can be provided into account only to a limited extent, which may lead to type I error when making the antimonopoly authority on the admissibility of horizontal agreements decisions. |
| Keywords: | environmental factors, assessment of agreements, antimonopoly legislation |
| Date: | 2016–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:452&r=net |
| By: | Neuhoff, Karsten; Richstein, Jörn |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:141422&r=net |
| By: | Legg, Wilfrid |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236371&r=net |
| By: | Sokbae Lee (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Bernard Salanie (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Multivalued treatment models have only been studied so far under restrictive assumptions: ordered choice, or more recently unordered monotonicity. We show how marginal treatment e?ects can be identi?ed in a more general class of models. Our results rely on two main assumptions: treatment assignment must be a measurable function of threshold-crossing rules; and enough continuous instruments must be available. On the other hand, we do not require any kind of monotonicity condition. We illustrate our approach on several commonly used models; and we also discuss the identi?cation power of discrete instruments. |
| Date: | 2015–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:72/15&r=net |
| By: | Utterback, Matthew |
| Keywords: | climate change, agriculture, learning, farmland values, Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q12, Q51, Q54, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236290&r=net |
| By: | Murat G. Kýrdar; Meltem Dayýoðlu; Ýsmet Koç |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bou:wpaper:2016/01&r=net |
| By: | de Hoon, Marloes (Political Science; ROA / Human capital in the region); Cörvers, Frank (ROA / Human capital in the region) |
| Abstract: | Dit literatuuronderzoek is uitgevoerd door het Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en Arbeidsmarkt (ROA) in opdracht van Maestro Kompas. De auteurs danken Wim Didderen (Maestro Kompas) voor het mogelijk maken van het onderzoek. Voorts danken zij de medewerkers van het Maestro Kompas team van de Open Universiteit en Ardi Mommers (ROA) voor hun commentaar op een eerdere versie van dit rapport. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2016001&r=net |
| By: | Christos Bilanakos; John S. Heywood; John Sessions; Nikolaos Theodoropoulos |
| Abstract: | This paper models a principal-firm offering training to its agent-worker under alternative organizational structures: integration, where the principal retains authority to overrule the investment project recommended by the worker; and delegation, where the principal cannot overrule the worker’s preferred investment project. We identify the conditions under which delegation increases the profit-maximizing training intensity. Empirical estimates from matched employer-employee data show that workplaces delegating authority do provide more worker training. This result persists in two cross sections, in panel fixed effect estimates and across many robustness checks including an instrumental variable exercise that also controls for establishment fixed effects. |
| Keywords: | Agency Theory; Delegation of Worker Authority; Training |
| JEL: | D21 D22 D23 M53 M54 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:06-2016&r=net |
| By: | Thesmar , David; Bouchaud , Jean-Philippe; Stefano , Ciliberti; Landier , Augustin; Simon , Guillaume |
| Abstract: | This note investigates the causes of the quality anomaly, which is one of the strongest and most scalable anomalies in equity markets. We explore two potential explanations. The "risk view", whereby investing in high quality firms is somehow riskier, so that the higher returns of a quality portfolio are a compensation for risk exposure. This view is consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The other view is the "behavioral view", which states that some investors persistently underestimate the true value of high quality firms. We find no evidence in favor of the "risk view": The returns from investing in quality firms are abnormally high on a risk-adjusted basis, and are not prone to crashes. We provide novel evidence in favor of the "behavioral view": In their forecasts of future prices, and while being overall overoptimistic, analysts systematically underestimate the future return of high quality firms, compared to low quality firms. |
| Keywords: | Quality anomaly; financial analysts misplaced focus; behavioral biases |
| JEL: | G00 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1134&r=net |
| By: | Fuchs, Benjamin; Osikominu, Aderonke |
| Abstract: | This paper first develops a simple model to clarify the links between leisure time use and skill formation. It then explores empirically how youths allocate their time. We focus on sports as a popular activity and estimate its effect on behavioral and economic outcomes. We exploit data from the German Socio-Economic Panel that offers the unique advantage of both a large, representative sample and high quality behavioral measures. We employ a flexible strategy combining propensity score matching and regression to account for self selection. Our results suggest that structured leisure activities like sports contribute to the development of nonacademic skills. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital; leisure activities; nonacademic skills; sports; treatment effect; youth development |
| JEL: | I21 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11330&r=net |
| By: | Galindo, Luis Miguel; Samaniego, Joseluis; Alatorre, José Eduardo; Reyes, Orlando; Ferrer, Jimy; Gómez, José Javier |
| Keywords: | CAMBIO CLIMATICO, RECURSOS HIDRICOS, RIESGO, TOMA DE DECISIONES, CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER RESOURCES, RISK, DECISION-MAKING |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col043:40193&r=net |
| By: | Sheheryar Banuri (University of East Anglia); Philip Keefer (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Recent research suggests that prosocial organizations are likely to have more prosocial employees, and that this match plays a significant role in organization contracting practices and productivity -- for example, in government. Evidence suggests that selection plays a role: prosocial employees are more likely to join prosocial organizations. In this paper, we ask whether prosocial behavior increases with tenure in prosocial organizations. Using a unique sample of nearly 300 mid-career Indonesian public officials, we find that subjects with longer tenure in the public sector exhibit greater prosocial behavior. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2016_04&r=net |
| By: | Humberto Moreira (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Marcelo Moreira (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Fundação Getúlio Vargas) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers two-sided tests for the parameter of an endogenous variable in an instrumental variable (IV) model with heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors. We develop the finite-sample theory of weighted-average power (WAP) tests with normal errors and a known long-run variance. We introduce two weights which are invariant to orthogonal transformations of the instruments; e.g., changing the order in which the instruments appear. While tests using the MM1 weight can be severely biased, optimal tests based on the MM2 weight are naturally two-sided when errors are homoskedastic. We propose two boundary conditions that yield two-sided tests whether errors are homoskedastic or not. The locally unbiased (LU) condition is related to the power around the null hypothesis and is a weaker requirement than unbiasedness. The strongly unbiased (SU) condition is more restrictive than LU, but the associated WAP tests are easier to implement. Several tests are SU in finite samples or asymptotically, including tests robust to weak IV (such as the Anderson-Rubin, score, conditional quasi-likelihood ratio, and I. Andrews' (2015) PI-CLC tests) and two-sided tests which are optimal when the sample size is large and instruments are strong. We refer to the WAP-SU tests based on our weights as MM1-SU and MM2-SU tests. Dropping the restrictive assumptions of normality and known variance, the theory is shown to remain valid at the cost of asymptotic approximations. The MM2-SU test is optimal under the strong IV asymptotics, and outperforms other existing tests under the weak IV asymptotics. |
| Date: | 2016–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:25/16&r=net |
| By: | Mishra, SK |
| Abstract: | Multicollinearity in empirical data violates the assumption of independence among the regressors in a linear regression model that often leads to failure in rejecting a false null hypothesis. It also may assign wrong sign to coefficients. Shapley value regression is perhaps the best methods to combat this problem. The present paper simplifies the algorithm of Shapley value decomposition of R2 and provides a computer program that executes it. However, Shapley value regression becomes increasingly impracticable as the number of regressor variables exceeds 10, although, in practice, a good regression model may not have more than ten regressors. |
| Keywords: | Multicollinearity, Shapley value, regression, computational algorithm, computer program, Fortran |
| JEL: | C13 C4 C63 C71 |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72116&r=net |
| By: | MICHELA BARRETO CAMBOIM GONÇALVES; ISABEL PESSOA DE ARRUDA RAPOSO; SÓNIA MARIA FONSECA PEREIRA OLIVEIRA GOMES |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:221&r=net |
| By: | Frédéric Gannon (EconomiX); Florence Legros (Laboratoire Structure et Dynamiques Financières); Vincent Touze (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | We build a "smooth" automatic balance mechanism (S–ABM) which would result from an optimal tradeoff between increasing the receipts and reducing the pension expenditures. The S- ABM obtains from minimizing an intertemporal discounted quadratic loss function under an intertemporal budget balance constraint. The main advantage of our model of "optimal" adjustment is its ability to analyse various configurations in terms of automatic balance mechanisms (ABM) by controlling the adjustment pace. This S-ABM permits to identify two limit cases: the “flat Swedish-type ABM” and the “fiscal-cliff US- type ABM”. These cases are obtained by assuming very high adjustment costs on revenue (implying only pension benefit adjustment) and by choosing particular sequences of publicdiscount rates. We then apply this ABM to the case of the United States Social Security to evaluate the adjustments necessary to ensure financial solvency. These assessments are made under various assumptions about forecast time horizon, public discount factorand weighting of social costs associated with increased receipts or lower expenditures |
| Keywords: | Pension Scheme sustainablity; Automatic balance mechanisms; Dynamic programming |
| JEL: | C61 H55 H68 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nnmnobpu685qait9jaqir07rn&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This document explores the key elements of bilateral air service agreements (ASAs) and recent trends towards increasing liberalisation and examines linkages between ASAs and cross border airline alliance. It discusses issues related to antitrust reviews of proposed alliances and summarises and comments on the impacts of international airline alliances. |
| Date: | 2014–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:4-en&r=net |
| By: | Bacus, Kent |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236848&r=net |
| By: | Hamilton, Neil D. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236620&r=net |
| By: | Tetsuo Ono (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This study presents an endogenous growth, overlapping-generations model fea- turing probabilistic voting over public pensions. The analysis shows that (i) the pension-GDP ratio increases as life expectancy increases in the presence of an an- nuity market, while it may show a hump-shaped pattern in its absence; (ii) the growth rate is higher in the presence of the annuity market than its absence, but the presence implies an intergenerational trade-off in terms of utility. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Population Aging; Probabilistic Voting; Public Pension; Annuity Market |
| JEL: | D70 E24 H55 |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:1417r2&r=net |
| By: | Kularatne, Mohottala G.; Pascoe, Sean; Wilson, Clevo; Robinson, Tim |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235372&r=net |
| By: | Tetsuro Matsushima (Bank of Japan); Lisa Ohkawa (Bank of Japan); Hirotaka Inoue (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In the foreign exchange market where diverse participants transact across borders, it is crucial to enhance confidence in the market globally for effective functioning of the market. In July 2015, the BIS established the Foreign Exchange Working Group (FXWG) to facilitate the development of a single global code of conduct for the foreign exchange market (the Global Code) and to promote greater adherence to the Global Code. Since its inception, central banks including the Bank of Japan and private-sector professionals from around the world have been working closely together to complete the Global Code by May 2017. The first phase of the Global Code and Principles for Adherence to the Global Code were released in May 2016 by the FXWG. The Global Code is principle-based instead of detailed and rule-based, and therefore takes into account the diversity of market participants, while reinforcing discipline to prevent misconduct. The Bank of Japan believes that market participants should fully understand and adhere to the principles underlined in the Global Code, which will contribute to sound development and effective functioning of the foreign exchange market. |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojrev:rev16e06&r=net |
| By: | Priyank Gandhi; Hanno Lustig; Alberto Plazzi |
| Abstract: | Equity is a cheap source of funding for a country's largest financial institutions. In a large panel of 31 countries, we find that the stocks of a country's largest financial companies earn returns that are significantly lower than stocks of non-financials with the same risk exposures. In developed countries, only the largest banks' stock earns negative risk-adjusted returns, but, in emerging market countries, other large non-bank financial firms do. Even though large banks have high betas, these risk-adjusted return spreads cannot be attributed to the risk anomaly. Instead, we find that the large-minus-small, financial-minus-nonfinancial, risk-adjusted spread varies across countries and over time in ways that are consistent with stock investors pricing in the implicit government guarantees that protect shareholders of the largest banks. The spread is significantly larger for the largest banks in countries with deposit insurance, backed by fiscally strong governments, and in common law countries that offer shareholders better protection from expropriation. Finally, the spread predicts large crashes in that country's stock market and output. |
| JEL: | G12 G18 G2 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22355&r=net |
| By: | Astebro , Thomas B; Hoos, Florian |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of a new nationally advertised six-month intensive training program to encourage leadership in social entrepreneurship among youth. Program costs were on the order of 12,000 euros per participant. We conduct a randomized field experiment where 50 applicants were randomly allocated to the program and 50 similar applicants were rejected. Despite large training efforts we find no robust treatment effects on leadership motivation, leadership style, social entrepreneurial aspirations and intentions, skills, sustainable behaviour, entrepreneurial actions and venture progression. Those that had made more progress on their venture prior to the start of the program were more likely to make progress afterwards, irrespective of treatment. There were also large Hawthorne effects. Those having the highest expectations before selection to treatment, as measured by their self-ratings on a battery of scores, experienced the biggest drop across all scores after selection, irrespective of treatment. Training people to become entrepreneurs seems to be difficult and costly. |
| Keywords: | social entrepreneurship; entrepreneurship; field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 L26 |
| Date: | 2016–01–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1128&r=net |
| By: | Eric Bettinger; Oded Gurantz; Laura Kawano; Bruce Sacerdote |
| Abstract: | We examine the impacts of being awarded a Cal Grant, among the most generous state merit aid programs. We exploit variation in eligibility rules using GPA and family income cutoffs that are ex ante unknown to applicants. Cal Grant eligibility increases degree completion by 2 to 5 percentage points in our reduced form estimates. Cal Grant also induces modest shifts in institution choice at the income discontinuity. At ages 28-32, Cal Grant receipt increases by three percentage points the likelihood of living in California at the income discontinuity, and raises earnings by four percentage points at the GPA discontinuity. |
| JEL: | H2 H4 H41 H52 I2 I22 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22347&r=net |
| By: | THIAGO FONSECA MORELLO RAMALHO DA SILVA; JOSE FERES |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:188&r=net |
| By: | Quinlivan, Daryl |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235582&r=net |
| By: | Samanta Meli (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia) |
| Abstract: | Il teleriscaldamento ricopre un ruolo sempre più significativo orientato, in particolare, allo sviluppo di sistemi alimentati da fonti rinnovabili. Alla luce di recenti sviluppi in ambito normativo e tecnologico,il paper si propone di delineare un quadro di sintesi del settore in Italia, sotto il profilo tecnico, economico e regolatorio. La presenza di pochi operatori dominanti definisce un assetto di monopolio locale. Inoltre, la concorrenza locale tra sistemi diversi di riscaldamento appare limitata dalla presenza di switching costs, che conferiscono ai gestori delle reti un potere di mercato che limita la concorrenza ex-post. La regolamentazione del settore è stata, sino ad oggi, implicita e locale, specialmente nell’ambito di schemi concessori o di delibere comunali, con ripercussioni negative anche sul fronte della tutela dei consumatori. La regolamentazione risulterebbe utile soprattutto laddove la concorrenza fra sistemi è debole. Nonché nelle situazioni caratterizzate da un obbligo di allacciamento alla rete, ovvero nei casi in cui la concorrenza ex-ante sia stata limitata con conseguenti vincoli sulle scelte degli utenti. |
| Keywords: | natural monopoly, renewable energy sources, switching costs |
| JEL: | L51 Q28 Q42 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0120&r=net |
| By: | Wheeler, Sarah; Zuo, Alec |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235790&r=net |
| By: | Sauter, Philipp; Hermann, Daniel; Musshoff, Oliver |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235515&r=net |
| By: | Buehler, Dorothee C.; Hartje, Rebecca C.; Grote, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | Despite encouraging developments in overall undernourishment figures our analysis of rural Cambodian households reveals very high malnutrition in children. In this paper we use a novel panel data set from Stung Treng in Cambodia which allows to compare different household food security indicators with each other and individual level anthropometric data of children under five. While the large majority of households appear to be food secure according to the Food Consumption Score (FCS) and the Household Hunger Scale (HHS), the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) and the Coping Strategies Index (CSI) classify less than four percent of the households in Stung Treng as food secure. Stunting and underweight measures for children show that between 38 to 45 percent of children under five are classified as undernourished. Analyzing the influence of household characteristics on these different measures for food security we find that the FCS is largely driven by household characteristics and livelihood strategy choices whereas the anthropometrics show little or zero correlation. Household wealth, inequality, and the prevalence of shocks however, has a strong influence on both measures. Individual and mother specific characteristics are vital to explain child malnutrition. |
| Keywords: | Malnutrition, Undernutrition, Food Security, Anthropometrics, Cambodia, Income Inequality, Shocks, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Health and Economic Development I15, Economic Development O15, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236333&r=net |
| By: | Edo Cvrkalj (DENVES CONSULTING); Denis Smolar (DENVES CONSULTING) |
| Abstract: | Tradicionalni načini budžetiranja sa fiksno definiranim ciljevima poslovanja od 1998. godine polako prerastaju u sofisticiranije organizaciji prilagođene alternativne koncepte budžetiranja. Jedan od tih alternativnih koncepta je i „Beyond budgeting“ model sa implementiranim procesom mjerenja performansi učinaka. Da bi to bilo izvedivo planiranje i kontrola budžeta treba biti preorijentirana na „bottom up“ pristup plana i kontrole. U suvremenim uvjetima poslovanja u obzir treba uzeti sadašnje i buduće prilike i prijetnje, koje se valoriziraju budžetom kojim poduzeće može realizirati paletu prednosti nad tradicionalnim načinima budžetiranja koje su objašnjene u daljnjem tekstu članka. Vrlo je bitno za naglasiti važnost uspjeha implementacije novog načina budžetiranja u organizaciju. Ukoliko je implementacija odrađena manjkavo i bez nekog višeg cilja, lako je moguće da se implementirani proces ugradi bez okvira za koordinaciju, planiranje i kontrolu aktivnosti u samoj organizaciji. U nastavku članka osvrnut ćemo se na menadžerske tehnike i instrumente u „Beyond budgeting“ modelu planiranja poput balanced scorecarda, rolling forecasta, dashboarda, KPI i raznih drugih potpornih instrumenata. Na kraju ćemo definirati sedam koraka za implementaciju „Beyond budgeting“ koncepta i komparaciju kroz dvanaest razloga zašto je „Beyond budgeting“ koncept bolji za upotrebu od tradicionalnih načina budžetiranja u suvremenim i tržištu orijentiranim organizacijama. Svako poduzeće se tim izazovima tržišta odupire na svoj karakterističan način, no uvođenje novih i dinamičnih modela planiranja uskoro će postati nužnost za opstanak na tržištu. |
| Keywords: | beyond budgeting, bottom up, budžet, planiranje, implementacija |
| JEL: | G31 G34 O16 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eff:wpaper:0012&r=net |
| By: | Kummer, Michael; Slivko, Olga; Zhang, Michael |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we address the impact of surging unemployment on online public good provision. Specifically, we ask how drastically increased unemployment affects voluntary contributions of content to the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. We put together a monthly country-level data set, which combines country specific economic outcomes with data on contributions to the online encyclopedia. As a source of exogenous variation in the economic state we use the fact that European countries were affected by the financial crisis in the US in September 2008 with different intensity. For European countries, we find that the economic downturn is associated with more viewership, which channels higher participation of volunteers in Wikipedia expressed in editing activity and content growth. We provide evidence for increased information search online or online learning as a potential channel of the change in public goods provision, which is a potentially important side effect of economic downturn. |
| Keywords: | online platform,Wikipedia,public goods,unemployment,user generated content |
| JEL: | D29 D80 H41 J60 L17 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:15078r&r=net |
| By: | Britta Rennkamp; Radhika Bhuyan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the question why the South African government intends to procure nuclear energy technology, despite affordable and accessible fossil and renewable energy alternatives. We analyse the social shaping of nuclear energy technology based on the statements of political actors in the public media. We combine a discourse network analysis with qualitative analysis to establish the coalitions in support and opposition of the programme. The central arguments in the debate are cost, safety, job creation, the appropriateness of nuclear energy, emissions reductions, transparency, risks for corruption, and geopolitical influences. The analysis concludes that the nuclear programme is not primarily about generating electricity, as it creates tangible benefits for the coalition of supporters. |
| Keywords: | nuclear energy, energy policy, science and technology policy, discourse network analysis South Africa |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-019&r=net |
| By: | Shagam, Shayle D. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236826&r=net |
| By: | Hester, Susie; Rossiter, Anthony |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235329&r=net |
| By: | Tina Marfan (Effectus - University Collage for Law and Finance) |
| Abstract: | Zdravlje je jedna od najvažnijih stvari u čovjekovu životu. Nije uzaludna uzrečica koja kaže da zdrav čovjek ima stotinu želja, a bolestan samo jednu – da ozdravi! Zdravstvo i zdravstvena zaštita vrlo su složeno i široko područje. U Republici Hrvatskoj postoji niz pravnih propisa koji uređuju tu materiju. Ishodišna točka su načela zajamčena Ustavom RH. Ta se načela konkretiziraju zakonima i podzakonskim aktima poput pravilnika, kodeksa. Republika Hrvatska potpisnica je i međunarodne Konvencije kojom su uređena temeljna prava i obveze zdravstvenih djelatnika i pacijenata. Autorica je u uvodnom je dijelu rada izložila kratak pregled pravnoga okvira u Republici Hrvatskoj dok drugi dio rada obrađuje, po mišljenju autorice, dva najvažnija zakona; Zakon o zdravstvenoj zaštiti i Zakon o zaštiti prava pacijenata. Zakon o zdravstvenoj zaštiti temeljeni je propis koji uređuje zdravstvenu zaštitu i zdravstvenu djelatnost. On sadrži odredbe o temeljnim pravima, obvezama, statusnim pitanjima, definicijama zdravstvenih radnika i djelatnika, njihove potrebne kvalifikacije i stručnost za obavljanje poslova u zdravstvenoj djelatnosti, osnivanje komore, prekršajne odredbe. Unatoč tomu što je riječ o bitnom i vrlo složenom propisu nije zanemariva činjenica da se sam zakon vrlo često mijenjao, pa čak i po dva do tri puta godišnje. Takva praksa može povlačiti vrlo visoku razinu pravne nesigurnosti na tom izrazito osjetljivom i složenom području. S druge strane, Zakon o zdravstvenoj zaštiti, zakon je koji pacijentima jamči njihova prava. Autorica rada u posebnome poglavlju obrađuje odrebe toga zakona. Osim što je zakon usmjeren na pacijente, on predstavlja imperativ i samim zdravstvenim radnicama u pogledu njihova ponašanja prema pacijentima. |
| Keywords: | zdravstvena zaštita, odgovornost liječnika, zdravstveni sustav |
| JEL: | K32 I11 H75 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eff:wpaper:0009&r=net |
| By: | Armstrong, Claire W. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235239&r=net |
| By: | Lock, Peter; Mounter, Stuart; Moss, Jonathan; Fleming, Euan |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235413&r=net |
| By: | Fanzo, Jessica; Hawkes, Corinna; Rosettie, Katherine |
| Abstract: | O Relatório sobre a Nutrição Mundial, um mecanismo independente de responsabilização voltado para o progresso e a ação em prol da nutrição, convoca todas as partes interessadas a assumir compromissos SMART de ação em prol da nutrição — isto é, compromissos específicos, mensuráveis, realizáveis, relevantes e com prazo definido. Mais especificamente, convocamos os governos a assumirem compromissos SMART de ação para cumprir as metas nacionais de nutrição e colocar sistemas de monitoramento em funcionamento para permitir aos próprios governos ou a outras partes interessadas avaliar o progresso. Também apelamos a todas as partes envolvidas — governos, agências internacionais ou bilaterais, entidades da sociedade civil, e empresas — para que revisem ou ampliem os compromissos, tanto os SMART quanto os ambiciosos, como parte do processo da Cúpula N4G Rio 2016. As partes interessadas de outros setores também devem especificar, de maneira alinhada com a abordagem SMART, como os compromissos em seus próprios setores podem ajudar no avanço da nutrição. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; malnutrition; nutrition policies; anemia; stunting; obesity; overweight; wasting disease; diabetes; children; micronutrients; health; climate change; private sector; agricultural development; agricultural policies; economic development; food systems; sustainability; poverty; breast feeding; indicators; HIV/AIDS; capacity building; public expenditure; children; sustainable development goals; wasting; burden of disease; undernourishment; undernutrition; noncommunicable diseases (NCD); child growth; Latin America; Africa south of Sahara; Oceania; South East Asia; South Asia; South America; Middle East; North Africa; Africa; Asia |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:supple:9780896292208&r=net |
| By: | Christian Ewerhart |
| Abstract: | The present paper constructs a novel solution to the chopstick auction, and thereby disproves a conjecture of Szentes and Rosenthal (Games and Economic Behavior, 2003a, 2003b). In contrast to the existing solution, the identi fied equilibrium strategy allows a simple and intuitive characterization. Moreover, its best-response set has the same Hausdorff dimension as its support, which may be seen as a robustness property. The analysis also reveals some new links to the literature on Blotto games. |
| Keywords: | Chopstick auction, exposure problem, self-similarity, blotto games |
| JEL: | C02 C72 D44 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:229&r=net |
| By: | Rifin, Amzul; Herawati |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235509&r=net |
| By: | LUCAS FERREIRA MATOS LIMA; PAULO FURQUIM DE AZEVEDO |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:156&r=net |
| By: | JOÃO HENRIQUE CHAER DIB NETTO; NAERCIO MENEZES-FILHO |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:202&r=net |
| By: | Nikita Malykhin; Philip Ushchev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We develop a simple partial-equilibrium model of endogenous city structure formation. No production externalities are at work, the only two forces shaping the spatial configurations of the city being love for variety (on the consumer side) and seeking for a better access to the market (on the firm side). We show that, unlike in existing models of a similar nature, our model generates clustering rather than co-agglomeration. Namely, if there are few firms relative to the urban population size, then firms tend to cluster at the city center, while consumers choose to reside on the outskirts. Otherwise, the opposite holds. Although a continuum of equilibrium city structures may emerge, we show that all spatial equilibria are segregated. In addition, the market outcome features spatial price dispersion, even though our framework does not involve imperfect information and search costs on the consumer side. |
| Keywords: | urban structure, monopolistic competition, agglomeration, clustering, quadratic preferences, segregated spatial equilibrium, price dispersion. |
| JEL: | R12 R14 D43 L13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:140/ec/2016&r=net |
| By: | Gaylee Morgan; Eileen Ellis |
| Abstract: | This brief examines the extent to which CKF coalition leaders expect their coalition and/or coalition activities to continue beyond the CKF grant period and the extent to which they have secured resources to continue. |
| Keywords: | Covering Kids and Families, CKF, Sustainability, Coalitions, Activities |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:67b1370867b8404c9705a8a45f9ccfb7&r=net |
| By: | Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Wu, Guoyuan; Barth, Matthew |
| Keywords: | Architecture, Arts and Humanities, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2016–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt0z46t198&r=net |
| By: | Bateman, Laura; Yi, Dale; Cacho, Oscar; Stringer, Randy |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235244&r=net |
| By: | Feldman, David; Kingwell, Ross; Plunkett, Brad; Thomas, Quenten; Farre-Codina, Imma |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235300&r=net |
| By: | GUSTAVO MOREIRA DE SOUZA |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:065&r=net |
| By: | Zaragoza-Watkins, Matthew |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236879&r=net |
| By: | Zull, Andrew; Bell, Mike; Cox, Howard; Gentry, Jayne; Klepper, Kaara; Dowling, Chris |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235817&r=net |
| By: | Cörvers, F. (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark); Claessen, J. (External organisation); Kluijfhout, E. (External organisation) |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2015002&r=net |
| By: | Astebro , Thomas B; Yong, Kevyn |
| Abstract: | This on-line appendix contains more details on the sampling process, more details on the sample, a comparison to a matched sample of Canadians, more technical details on various measures and procedures, and further robustness analysis. |
| Keywords: | Creativity; Prior Employment Variety; Jack-of-all-Trades; Invention Quality |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2015–12–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1130&r=net |
| By: | Raphael Hekimian; David Le Bris |
| Abstract: | We compare the reaction of the Paris bourse to the US crashes during both the 2008 and the 1929 crises. We constitute a new dataset of daily French stock prices from February 1929 to March 1930 that we combine to the already existing daily series of the Dow Jones. We also use newspapers and minutes from the Banque de France and from the Paris Stock Exchange’s brokers syndicate in order to confront quantitative data with historical narratives. We finally run contagion tests in both periods, using adjusted correlation coefficients to test for pure contagion. In 1929, the Paris stock market does not exhibit any reaction to the New-York crash. The recent crisis is totally different with a clear contagion of the US crash. This study highlights a significant difference between the two crises and provides strong evidence that the transmission of the Great Depression used other channels than stock markets. |
| Keywords: | Financial history, Financial crisis, Stock market, Contagion. |
| JEL: | G15 G01 N12 N13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2016-21&r=net |
| By: | Grund, Christian (RWTH Aachen University); Harbring, Christine (RWTH Aachen University); Thommes, Kirsten (Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus) |
| Abstract: | We analyze how different previous roles as partners or strangers in public good games affect an individual's subsequent cooperation in a partner setting. We systematically vary a group's composition from all individuals being partner over blended groups of partners and strangers to all individuals being stranger in each round. Our results show that previous group composition does not affect cooperation in the subsequent partner setting with one exception: Groups cooperate significantly less compared to all other settings, when one stranger entered the group. We further analyze this situation in-depth and find that individuals may labor under an ultimate attribution error: They feel that the newcomer is a "bad apple". The cooperativeness towards the newcomer, but also among oldtimers is disturbed in this case. We conduct additional treatments to back up this result and to show how certain information can prevent such an error. |
| Keywords: | cooperation, economic experiments, group composition, public good game, teams |
| JEL: | C9 M5 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9982&r=net |
| By: | Buehren,Niklas; Goldstein,Markus P.; Leonard,Kenneth; Montalvao,Joao; Vasilaky,Kathryn |
| Abstract: | This study looks at how a community event?adolescent women's economic and social empowerment -- and a family factor -- sibling sex composition?interact in shaping gender differences in preferences for competition. To do so, a lab-in-the-field experiment is conducted using competitive games layered over the randomized rollout of a community program that empowered adolescent girls in Uganda. In contrast with the literature, the study finds no gender differences in competitiveness among adolescents, on average. It also finds no evidence of differences in competitiveness between girls in treatment and control communities, on average. However, in line with the literature, in control communities the study finds that boys surrounded by sisters are less competitive. Strikingly, this pattern is reversed in treatment communities, where boys surrounded by (empowered) sisters are more competitive. |
| Keywords: | Anthropology,Gender and Development,Gender and Social Development,Gender and Law,Adolescent Health |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7699&r=net |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | 栄 養不良の問題は、3人に1人が直接的に影響を受け ており、今日国際社会が直面している問題でこれ ほど規模の大きなものはほとんどありません。栄養不良は、子どもの成長や発育不全だけではなく、極度の消耗状態に ある個人が病気にかかりやすくなったり、肥満状態にある 個人の血液に糖分、塩分またはコレステロールが過剰に含 まれていたり、あるいは重要なビタミンやミネラルが欠乏 していたりするなど、さまざまな形で現れます。栄養不良や 不適切な食事は病気を引き起こす世界最大の危険因子で す。栄養不良による深刻な公衆保健問題に直面していな い国はありません。栄養改善における1ドルの投資に対し 16ドルの経済効果が証明されているにもかかわらず、アフ リカとアジアでは毎年国内総生産（GDP）の11%を栄養不 良により損失しています。各国は栄養改善に向けて目標値 を定め、これに合意していますが、近年若干の進展が見ら れたとはいえ、目標達成は難しくなっています。世界の栄養 状況に関する第3回目となる本報告では、この進展の遅い状況を変え、2030年までにあらゆる栄養不良を根絶するた めのさまざまな方法を紹介しています。 |
| Keywords: | nutrition; malnutrition; nutrition policies; anemia; stunting; obesity; overweight; wasting disease; diabetes; children; micronutrients; health; climate change; private sector; agricultural development; agricultural policies; economic development; food systems; sustainability; poverty; breast feeding; indicators; HIV/AIDS; capacity building; public expenditure; children; sustainable development goals; wasting; burden of disease; undernourishment; undernutrition; noncommunicable diseases (NCD); child growth; Latin America; Africa south of Sahara; Oceania; South East Asia; South Asia; South America; Middle East; North Africa; Africa; Asia |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896292239&r=net |
| By: | Oscar Dancourt (Departamento de Economía de la PUCP del Perú); Waldo Mendoza (Departamento de Economía de la PUCP del Perú) |
| Abstract: | La intervención del banco central en el mercado cambiario tiene un carácter sistemático en el Perú. El banco rema contra de la corriente: compra o acumula dólares cuando el tipo de cambio baja y vende o desacumula dólares cuando el tipo de cambio sube. En este artículo presentamos un modelo donde la intervención cambiaria ocupa un lugar central. Es un modelo Mundell-Fleming con una ecuación de balanza de pagos y una regla de intervención cambiaria del banco central, donde tanto el tipo de cambio como las reservas de divisas son variables endógenas. El modelo se ha construido para el estudio de una economía como la peruana, exportadora de materias primas, con libre movilidad de capitales, parcialmente dolarizada, y con un banco central que fija la tasa de interés y mantiene un régimen de flexibilidad limitada del tipo de cambio. El modelo se utiliza para simular los efectos de una caída del precio internacional de la materia prima de exportación y para discutir las opciones de política macroeconómica disponibles. Una conclusión importante es que el volumen de reservas internacionales con que cuenta el banco central al momento del choque externo es decisivo. Sin reservas de divisas, un choque externo adverso obliga al banco central, en la práctica, a sacrificar uno de sus dos objetivos (estabilidad de precios y pleno empleo) en aras del otro. JEL Classification-JEL: E52 y E58. |
| Keywords: | Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) , flotación sucia , Intervención Cambiaria , Política monetaria |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00422&r=net |
| By: | Sebastian Gechert; Christoph Paetz; Paloma Villanueva |
| Abstract: | Using the bottom-up approach of Romer and Romer (2010), we construct a rich narrative dataset of net-revenue fiscal shocks for Germany by reconstructing and extending the tax shock series of Hayo and Uhl (2014) and coding a shock series for social security contributions, benefits and transfers. Based on quarterly data for 1974q1 to 2013q4 we estimate the multiplier effects of shocks to net-revenues, taxes, social security contributions and benefits in a proxy SVAR framework (Mertens and Ravn 2013) and compare them with estimates of the top-down identification inspired by Blanchard and Perotti (2002). We find multiplier effects of net-revenue components for Germany between 0 and 1 for both the top-down and bottom-up approaches. These estimates are on the lower end of the scale given in the literature and we discuss the differences. |
| Keywords: | Narrative Record Identification, Action-Based Approach, Fiscal Multipliers, Revenue Elasticities |
| JEL: | E62 H20 H30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:169-2016&r=net |
| By: | Sheng |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235612&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 04/2015 |
| Date: | 2015–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:899&r=net |
| By: | Specht, Allison L. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236604&r=net |
| By: | Li, Yiting; Miranda, Mario J. |
| Keywords: | Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236830&r=net |
| By: | Scarborough, Helen |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235605&r=net |
| By: | Prager, Daniel |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, |
| Date: | 2016–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236874&r=net |
| By: | McInnes, Dougal; Betz, Regina; Jotzo, Frank; Kuch, Declan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235252&r=net |
| By: | Claude Diebolt (BETA, University of Strasbourg Strasbourg, France); Ralph Hippe (London School of Economics and Political Science, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment) |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afc:wpaper:09-16&r=net |
| By: | Dirk Czarnitzki; Julie Delanote |
| Abstract: | This paper integrates innovation input and output effects of R&D subsidies into a modified Crépon–Duguet–Mairesse (CDM) model. Our results largely confirm insights of the input additionality literature, i.e. public subsidies complement private R&D investment. In addition, results point to positive output effects of both purely privately funded and subsidy–induced R&D. Furthermore, we do not find evidence of a premium or discount of subsidy–induced R&D in terms of its marginal contribution on new product sales when compared to purely privately financed R&D. |
| Keywords: | CDM model, R&D, subsidies, innovation policy |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:543966&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Building on our 2015 report Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How Shared Self-driving Cars Could Change City Traffic, this study models the impact of replacing all car and bus trips in a city with mobility provided through fleets of shared vehicles. The simulation is, again, based on real mobility and network data from a mid-size European city, namely Lisbon, Portugal. |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:21-en&r=net |
| By: | Xu, Yuan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235803&r=net |
| By: | KARINA CYGANCZUK GOES; PROF. DR. HSIA HUA SHENG; PROF. DR. RAFAEL SCHIOZER |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:024&r=net |
| By: | Kuhns, Ryan; Patrick, Kevin |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, |
| Date: | 2016–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236868&r=net |
| By: | Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale; Farquharson, Robert |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235520&r=net |
| By: | Shagam, Shayle D. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236596&r=net |
| By: | McKenna |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2016–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236809&r=net |
| By: | Kasey S. Buckles; Daniel M. Hungerman |
| Abstract: | While the fertility effects of improving teenagers’ access to contraception are theoretically ambiguous, most empirical work has shown that access decreases teen fertility. In this paper, we consider the fertility effects of access to condoms—a method of contraception not considered in prior work. We exploit variation across counties and across time in teenagers’ exposure to condom distribution programs in schools. We find that access to condoms in schools increases teen fertility by about 10 percent. These effects are driven by communities where condoms are provided without mandated counseling. |
| JEL: | J13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22322&r=net |
| By: | Hill , Brian; Bradley , Richard; Helgeson, Casey |
| Abstract: | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model. |
| Keywords: | climate; change; confidence |
| Date: | 2016–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1131&r=net |
| By: | Ketterer, Tobias; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | The debate on whether institutions or geography prevail in driving economic growth has been rife (e.g. Sachs 2003 vs. Rodrik et al. 2004). Most of the empirical analyses delving into this debate have focused on world countries, whose geographical and institutional conditions differ widely. Subnational analyses considering groups of countries with, in principle, more similar institutional and geographical conditions have been limited and tended to highlight that geography is more important than institutions at subnational level. This paper aims to address whether this is the case by investigating how differences in institutional and "first-nature" geographical conditions have affected economic growth in Europe's regions in the period 1995-2009. In the analysis we use a newly developed dataset including regional quality of government indicators and geographical charactersitics and employ 2-SLS and IV-GMM estimation techniques with a number of regional historical variables as instruments. Our results indicate that at a regional level in Europe institutions rule. Regional institutional conditions - and, particularly, government effectiveness and the fight against corruption - play an important role in shaping regional economic growth prospects. This does not imply, however, that geography is irrelevant. There is evidence of geographical factors affecting regional growth, although their impact is dwarfed by the overriding influence of institutions. |
| Keywords: | Europe; Geography; institutions; NUTS-2 regions; quality of government; Regional economic growth |
| JEL: | O11 O43 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11322&r=net |
| By: | Bullard, James B. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | In Singapore, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discussed two views of future policy rate increases in the United States: the FOMC’s scenario and the market-based scenario. The former suggests a gradual pace of rate increases over the next several years, while the latter suggests a much shallower path—only a few increases over the forecast horizon. He cited evidence to back both views. For the FOMC scenario, he cited strong labor markets, waning international headwinds and inflation measurements moving closer to the 2 percent target. For the market-based scenario, the evidence included slow real GDP growth and low inflation expectations. Bullard spoke at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum’s City Lecture. |
| Date: | 2016–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlps:269&r=net |
| By: | Yola Engler; Rudolf Kerschbamer; Lionel Page |
| Abstract: | For the trust game, recent models of belief-dependent motivations make opposite predictions regarding the correlation between back-transfers and second- order beliefs of the trustor: While reciprocity models predict a negative correlation, guilt-aversion models predict a positive one. This paper tests the hypothesis that the inconclusive results in previous studies investigating the reaction of trustees to their beliefs are due to the fact that reciprocity and guilt-aversion are behaviorally relevant for different subgroups and that their impact cancels out in the aggregate. We find little evidence in support of this hypothesis and conclude that type heterogeneity is unlikely to explain previous results. |
| JEL: | C25 C70 C91 D63 D64 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2016-17&r=net |
| By: | David Wittenburg; Charles Michalopoulos; Robert Weathers (Speakers) |
| Keywords: | SSDI beneficiaries, uninsured, health care benefits, Affordable Care Act, ACA, Work Incentives Planning and Assistance, WIPA, SSI, TANF, POMCO, PGAP, progressive goal attainment program |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:d2eecb6cd73c40f3b2a42dbb56ab104d&r=net |
| By: | CAMILA FLORES ORTH; TIAGO WICKSTROM ALVES |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anp:en2014:057&r=net |
| By: | Bryan McCannon (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Paul Walker (West Virginia University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The seminal contribution, known as the Condorcet Jury Theorem, observes that under a specific set of conditions an increase in the size of a group tasked with making a decision leads to an improvement in the group's ability to make a good decision. An assumption under-appreciated is that the competency of the members of the group is assumed to be exogenous. In numerous applications, members of the group make investments to improve the accuracy of their decision making (e.g. pre-meeting efforts). We consider the collective action problem that arises. We show that if competence is endogenous, then increases in the size of the group encourages free riding. This trades off with the value of information aggregation. Thus, the value of increased group size is muted. Extensions illustrate that if committee members are allowed to exit/not participate, then the equilibrium committee size is reduced. Additionally, (non-decisive supermajority voting rules encourage the investments and, consequently, individual competence. |
| Keywords: | committee decision making, Condorcet Jury Theorem, endogenous competence, group size, majority voting, supermajority voting |
| JEL: | D71 D02 H41 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-12&r=net |
| By: | Brainard, Lael (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)) |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:899&r=net |
| By: | Bloem, Stephanie |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236612&r=net |
| By: | Neal, Mark; Cooper, Simon |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235417&r=net |
| By: | Vanzetti, David |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235777&r=net |
| By: | Weber, Enzo (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Weigand, Roland (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "This study investigates impacts of migration on the German economy, explicitly distinguishing refugee and non-refugee immigration. We propose a macroeconometric modelling approach complemented by instrumental variable techniques. We find that non-refugee immigration has more beneficial medium-run effects on GDP and the labour market." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Einwanderung, Asylbewerber, Arbeitslosenquote, Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Lohn, Flüchtlinge |
| JEL: | F22 E24 C32 C36 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201620&r=net |
| By: | Permani, Risti; Umberger, Wendy |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235500&r=net |
| By: | Julio Garín; Robert Lester; Eric Sims |
| Abstract: | The basic New Keynesian model predicts that positive supply shocks are less expansionary at the zero lower bound (ZLB) compared to periods of active monetary policy. We test this prediction empirically using Fernald's (2014) utilization-adjusted total factor productivity series, which we take as a measure of exogenous productivity. In contrast to the predictions of the model, positive productivity shocks are estimated to be more expansionary at the ZLB compared to normal times. However, in line with the predictions of the basic model, positive productivity shocks have a stronger negative effect on inflation at the ZLB. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22311&r=net |
| By: | Matsuda, Hirotaka; Ogata, Yuka; Takagi, Akira; Kurokura, Hisashi |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235405&r=net |
| By: | Behar, Salvador |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236608&r=net |
| By: | Chand, Ramesh |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235263&r=net |
| By: | Gilles Lepesant |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) has set targets for gradually reducing greenhouse gas emissions through 2050. One of the instruments involved is the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive, which specifies a 20 per cent renewable energy target for the EU by 2020. This paper reviews tensions and institutional innovations that can arise at local and regional levels within the context of the implementation of this policy.Drawing on empirical evidence collected in two regions, one in a federal country (Brandenburg in Germany), one in a unitary state (Aquitaine in France), the paper describes the factors that determine community and market acceptance of renewable energies, suggesting that appropriate multi-level governance schemes are instrumental in the successful adoption and implementation of EU priorities at the local level. |
| Keywords: | Forests and forestry, Renewable energy sources, State governments |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-029&r=net |
| By: | Pardey, Philip G. |
| Keywords: | International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236817&r=net |
| By: | Emde, Simon; Boysen, Nils |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:79436&r=net |
| By: | Rolfe, John; Windle, Jill |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235588&r=net |
| By: | JAMES, Jonathan; VUJIC, Suncica |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of education on the timing of fertility. First, we use an institutional rule that led to women obtaining qualifications due to their month of birth (Easter Leaving Rule). Second, we exploit a large expansion of post-compulsory schooling that occurred from the late 1980s to the early 1990s. This expansion resulted in the proportion of 18 year olds in full time education rising from around 17% in 1985 to over 35% in the late 1990s. We find that neither the exogenous increase in qualifications as a result of the Easter Leaving Rule nor the expansion in post-compulsory schooling led to a reduction in the probability of having a child as a teenager. However, we do find that both sources of variation in education led to delays in having a child. There is no evidence that the mechanism driving these findings are due to an incapacitation effect. Instead the results point to both a direct human capital effect and an improvement in labour market opportunities as a result of holding qualifications. |
| Keywords: | Education, Fertility timing |
| JEL: | I26 J13 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2016005&r=net |
| By: | Riccardo Ferretti (Department of Communication and Economics, and Cefin (Centro Studi Banca e Finanza), University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy); Pierpaolo Pattitoni (University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); Roberto Patuelli (University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the effectiveness of the Market Abuse Directive (MAD) in reducing possible profits from insider trading during voluntary tender offers with the purpose of delisting initiated by controlling shareholders. Exploiting the quasi-experimental setting provided by the introduction of the MAD, our event-study analysis on the Italian market suggests that the new regulation did not produce appreciable effects on the magnitude of abnormal returns and volumes noted before the announcement of a tender offer. Multivariate econometric analyses based on regression and matching methods confirm this result. However, poolability tests reveal that the MAD has changed the manner in which corporate characteristics influence the capacity of insiders to make profit. We interpret our results considering the choice problem of the optimal amount of insider trading, when comparing the marginal costs and benefits of the illegal activity. |
| Keywords: | Market Abuse Directive, Tender offer, Delisting, Event study |
| JEL: | K2 K4 G34 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-16&r=net |
| By: | Coble, Keith |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236592&r=net |
| By: | Emin Dinlersoz (Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau); Jeremy Greenwood (University of Pennsylvania); Henry Hyatt (Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau, and IZA) |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:roc:rocher:595&r=net |
| By: | Emilio Aguirre (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Uruguay)); Pablo Blanchard (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social (Uruguay)); Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay); Joaquín Saldain (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | We use a micro-price dataset to analyze the impact on prices of a social program in Uruguay that allow the beneficiaries to purchase food, beverages and cleaning items exclusively in certain small retailers. We find that the beneficiaries pay significantly higher prices in relation to prices in other retailers. We find this result for the whole country with the exception of areas with the highest retailer density in the capital city, Montevideo. |
| Keywords: | market structure, market power, prices, social program; estructura de mercado, poder de mercado, precios, programa social |
| JEL: | D4 I3 L1 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bku:doctra:2015002&r=net |
| By: | Ivo Bicanic; Milan Deskar-Škrbić; Jurica Zrnc |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:bpaper:122&r=net |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Turkey and Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa.); İsmail H. Genç (Department of Economics, School of Business and Management, American University, United Arab Emirates); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of crude oil price movements on the stock markets of Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries using weekly data for the period of February 2, 1994-February 26, 2010. The causal link between oil and stock markets are modeled using a Markov switching vector autoregressive (MS-VAR) model in order to reflect changes in Granger causality over time. The MS-VAR model allows testing for both conditional Granger causality and regime predicting causality. The parameter instability tests indicate that causal links between crude oil prices and stock market indexes are highly time varying. The full sample conditional Granger causality tests based on the MS-VAR model, which identifies four regimes each corresponding to causal relationships, rejects both the causal impact of lagged stock market prices on oil prices and the causal impact from crude oil spot prices to stock market indexes in the full sample. However, regime prediction causality from oil prices to GCC stock markets is not rejected for all countries we consider, indicating that oil prices have predictive content for the regime of GCC stock markets. These results encompass the previous findings and offer new insights into the nature of causal relationships between oil price and stock markets in GCC countries. |
| Keywords: | Oil Price; Stock Market, Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries, Markov Switching Model, Time-Varying Granger-causality |
| JEL: | E44 Q43 C32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201644&r=net |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | The gradual withdrawal of western banks from the commodity sector is a significant opportunity for the historically large traders, whose economic role should be strengthened. These traders however are facing new constraints: reduced margins, competition from other industry players operating in vertical integration strategies and the rise of Asian traders. International trade is now at a historic turning point. |
| Keywords: | international trade, raw material, commodity markets, regulations, Basel III. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb15/05&r=net |
| By: | Monckton, David |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235409&r=net |
| By: | Stankov, Petar; Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | We set up a tractable general equilibrium (GE) model to study how output of firms of different size grows after entry and labor reforms. We then take the model predictions to the largest global publicly available firm-level data set: the Enterprise Surveys data. The results demonstrate that firms of different size grow differently after identical reforms. Thus, based on the notable differences of firm-size distributions across countries, identical reforms may produce a variety of growth outcomes. |
| Keywords: | regulatory reform,general equilibrium |
| JEL: | C13 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:141915&r=net |
| By: | Lergetporer, Philipp (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Schwerdt, Guido (University of Konstanz); Werner, Katharina (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Woessmann, Ludger (Ifo Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The electorates' lack of information about the extent of public spending may cause misalignments between voters' preferences and the size of government. We devise a series of representative survey experiments in Germany that randomly provide treatment groups with information on current spending levels. Results show that such information strongly reduces support for public spending in various domains from social security to defense. Data on prior information status on school spending and teacher salaries shows that treatment effects are strongest for those who initially underestimated spending levels, indicating genuine information effects rather than pure priming effects. Information on spending requirements also reduces support for specific education reforms. Preferences on spending across education levels are also malleable to information. |
| Keywords: | public spending, information, preferences, education spending, survey experiment |
| JEL: | H11 D83 D72 H52 I22 P16 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9968&r=net |
| By: | Kartika, Dwintha Maya |
| Abstract: | It is unanimously agreed that currency policies of the countries, particularly their exchange-rate values, have a significant impact on trade as it alters exports and imports between one country and its trading partners. In spite of this, the rules of currency seem to be absent in World Trade Organization (WTO) framework. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the reasoning why such important rules are missing out in the multilateral trade sphere. It is divided into few sections; the first one examines currency manipulation and the significance of it for international trade, the second one analyses the existence of institutional gap between WTO and International Monetary Fund (IMF) in addressing the problem of currency manipulation, the third explains the reinforcement of status quo at multilateral sphere based on neorealism framework, and the last one will provide some insight on the possibility of inclusion of currency chapter at free-trade agreement level. |
| Keywords: | WTO; IMF; International trade; Currency; TPP; free trade agreements; trade; currency manipulation; multilateralism; China; |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F15 F31 F33 F42 F5 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72114&r=net |
| By: | Yutao Sun |
| Abstract: | We propose a bias correction method for nonlinear models with both individual and time effects. Under the presence of the incidental parameter problem, the maximum likelihood estimator derived from such models may be severely biased. Our method produces an approximation to an infeasible log-likelihood function that is not exposed to the incidental parameter problem. The maximizer derived from the approximating function serves as a bias-corrected estimator that is asymptotically unbiased when the sequence N=T converges to a constant. The proposed method is general in several perspectives. The method can be extended to models with multiple fixed effects and can be easily modified to accommodate dynamic models. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:541934&r=net |
| By: | Abdulkader Cassim Mahomedy |
| Abstract: | In the last of this three-part study, the impact of the two dominant epistemologies of modernity on economics is fully explained. The intrusion of their ideas profoundly shaped both the content and methodology of the discipline, eventually instigating the separation of the field from the other social sciences that invariably bear on economic decisions and outcomes. The economists, notwithstanding these interdisciplinary linkages, continued to pattern their field of study after the natural sciences, further alienating the discipline from the humanities. These developments set off several rounds of methodological controversies within economics, which split the profession into irreconcilable camps. These disputes are analysed, helping to clarify why deep divisions within the discipline persist up to this day. Mainstream economics then gravitated further towards quantification and mathematisation, the implications of which have been enormous for the discipline. Ethical and normative considerations were altogether explicitly banished from economic science. To overcome these limitations, Muslim economists attempted to erect a separate discipline of economics based on the ethical values of Islam, whilst remaining largely committed to the methodology of neoclassical economics. They have registered little success in this effort. The reasons for this are explained and an alternative framework, centred on the precept of Tawhid in the unity of knowledge, is then suggested. |
| Keywords: | Epistemology, Economics, Rationalism, intellectualism, empiricism, Islam, Islamic Economics, unity of knowledge |
| JEL: | A1 B1 B2 B4 B5 N01 Z1 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:611&r=net |
| By: | Jacques-Francois Thisse; Philip Ushchev (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We provide a selective survey of what has been accomplished under the heading of monopolistic competition in industrial organization and other economic elds. Among other things, we argue that monopolistic competition is a market structure in its own right, which encompasses a much broader set-up than the celebrated constant elasticity of substitution (CES) model. Although oligopolistic and monopolistic competition compete for adherents within the economics profession, we show that this dichotomy is, to a large extend, unwarranted. |
| Keywords: | monopolistic competition, oligopoly, product dierentiation, the negligibility hypothesis |
| JEL: | D43 L11 L13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:141/ec/2016&r=net |
| By: | Shastitko. Andrey (Lomonossov Moscow State University, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Golovanova, S. V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the range of issues that are in the organization's area of ??responsibility - the manager of a complex capital-intensive project. This work is an illustration of the danger of underestimating the role of "mediator" in the implementation of complex projects in the framework of anti-monopoly investigation, - no analysis of the subject of economic activity it can lead to erroneous conclusions regulations. The analysis shows that at least two functions - the mediator and the financial guarantor - it is impossible to pass on one of the communicating parties without showing the negative aspects in terms of efficiency. In this regard, it recommended the elimination of the antimonopoly body of the contractual relationship intermediary companies not only ensures reduction in the price to the buyer for the rest of the broker fees, but can lead to the opposite effect. |
| Keywords: | mediator, Project Manager, Economic Policy, inhospitable tradition avtotraste |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1449&r=net |
| By: | Costa, Ramiro |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:usao16:236616&r=net |
| By: | Dumbrell, Nikki; Kragt, Marit; Meier, Elizabeth; Thorburn, Peter; Biggs, Jody |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235272&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report analyses the importance of the adoption and the effective use of information and communication technologies (ICTs) for enabling digital innovation for growth and inclusiveness, and discusses the role of public policies in stimulating such adoption and use. Given the emergence of a new digital divide caused by a possible breakdown of the “diffusion machine”, and given the strong interest of governments in furthering ICT adoption and use in particular by SMEs and disfavoured social groups, emphasis is put on policies stimulating ICT diffusion across society, i.e. ICT demand side policies. |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:256-en&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 6/2015 |
| Date: | 2015–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:903&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 8/2014 |
| Date: | 2014–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:911&r=net |
| By: | Duncan Pieterse,; Friedrich Kreuser; Elizabeth Gavin |
| Abstract: | The South African Revenue Service and National Treasury Firm-Level Panel is an unbalanced panel data set created by merging several sources of administrative tax data received during 2015. The four data sources that constitute the panel are: (i) company income tax from registered firms who submit tax forms; (ii) employee data from employee income tax certificates submitted by employers; (iii) value-added tax data from registered firms; and (iv) customs records from traders. These data sets constitute a significant and unique source for the study of firm-level behaviour in post-apartheid South Africa. We review the key data sources used to construct the panel, highlight some important questions that arise as a result of panel construction, discuss the biases in the resulting data, compare key aggregates in the panel to other data sources, and provide a descriptive overview of the tax records. |
| Keywords: | administrative data, tax, firm level |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-042&r=net |
| By: | Eric Dor (IESEG School of Management) |
| Abstract: | To fight deflationary pressures in the euro area, the ECB has been conducting exceptional policies, such as negative interest rates on excess reserves of banks on their accounts at the Eurosystem, or massive purchases of assets, essentially public bonds. The interest rate on the main refinancing operations is 0. Targeted long term refinancing operations are going to allow banks to borrow at potentially negative interest rates from the Eurosystem provided that they lend enough to the private sector. All these measures have pushed long term interest rates downward in the euro area. German public bonds yield negative returns for a whole set of maturities. Interest rates on saving accounts in German banks are extremely low. This policy of extremely low rates has been heavily criticized in Germany. The ECB is accused of exaggeratedly lowering the income of savers and retirees whose revenue partly depends on the return of accumulated wealth. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e201607&r=net |
| By: | Miles B. Gietzmann; Adam J. Ostaszewski |
| Abstract: | Following the approach of standard filtering theory, we analyse investor-valuation of firms, when these are modelled as geometric-Brownian state processes that are privately and partially observed, at random (Poisson) times, by agents. Tasked with disclosing forecast values, agents are able purposefully to withhold their observations; explicit filtering formulas are derived for downgrading the valuations in the absence of disclosures. The analysis is conducted for both a solitary firm and m co-dependent firms. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.04039&r=net |
| By: | Eduardo Engel; Ronald Fischer; Alexander Galetovic; Ginés De Rus |
| Abstract: | Los dos casos polares para la construcción, mantenimiento y operación de las infraestructuras son la provisión pública directa y la privatización. Ente ellos hay un menú de contratos de colaboración público-privada, entre los que el sistema concesional es el más atractivo cuando es preferible que el Estado mantenga la planificación de la red, cediendo temporalmente, “a riesgo y ventura”, su operación al sector privado. Las autopistas de peaje en España se construyen y gestionan mediante este sistema. En principio, podría pensarse que la participación privada evita, por un lado, ejecutar proyectos socialmente no rentables y, por otro, que posteriormente se garantice la eficiencia en su gestión. La renegociación de la mitad de todas las concesiones, muchas de ellas, al comienzo del periodo concesional, sugiere que existen problemas de riesgo moral y selección adversa que no pueden explicarse por la crisis económica y errores en la predicción de tráfico. En este informe sostenemos que los problemas recurrentes en las concesiones de autopistas de peaje tienen una causa más profunda en el diseño de los contratos. Después de un análisis del sistema concesional español, proponemos su reforma, modificando el ineficiente reparto de riesgos que contiene, con el fin de eliminar los errores más evidentes y evitar la repetición de la crisis actual en el futuro. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:323&r=net |
| By: | Mishili, Fulgence; Mallawaarachchi, Thilak; Valerian, Judith; Auricht, Christopher; Boffa, Jean-Marc; Dixon, John |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235383&r=net |
| By: | Ooi, ZhongKai |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235495&r=net |
| By: | Alston, Julian; Andersen, Matt; Pardey, Phil |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235231&r=net |
| By: | Willox, Michael; Baldwin, John R. |
| Abstract: | Dans le present document, nous examinons dans quelle mesure le ralentissement de la croissance de la productivite observe dans le secteur des entreprises au Canada entre les annees 1990 (1990 a 1999) et 2000 (2000 a 2014) etait attribuable a une croissance plus faible de la productivite dans les industries, et dans quelle mesure il etait du a un ajustement structurel. L?analyse repose sur une methode de decomposition qui differe d?un grand nombre d?approches classiques de decomposition de la productivite du travail que l?on trouve couramment dans les ouvrages publies et qui permet de calculer la contribution des variations de l?importance des industries individuellement. |
| Keywords: | Economic accounts, Productivity accounts |
| Date: | 2016–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp3f:2016373f&r=net |
| By: | Warr, Peter |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235784&r=net |
| By: | Gräbner, Claudius |
| Abstract: | We identify epistemological shifts in economics throughout the 20th century and discuss their methodological implications. After the realist research program of the Cowles commission and Lucas' rational expectations approach, several economists became dissatisfied with economic theory and initiated a shift towards instrumentalism. Recently, this movement has come under critique and a return to a realist epistemology focusing on identifying economic mechanisms is suggested. Such epistemological changes have important practical implications: they affect the discrimination among competing explanations and determine which research methods are accepted. We illustrate this by studying epistemological and methodological changes in development economics throughout the last century. |
| Keywords: | mechanism-based explanations, realism, instrumentalism, agent-based computational modeling, New Keynesian economics |
| JEL: | B20 B41 O1 |
| Date: | 2016–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71933&r=net |
| By: | Ira Nichols-Barrer; Kate Place; Erin Dillon; Brian P. Gill |
| Abstract: | The state of Massachusetts introduced a system of standardized testing in its public schools three years before the federal No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 mandated such practices for all 50 states. |
| Keywords: | College readiness, MCAS, PARCC, education |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:c2323fdc3ae741c790b573270784900b&r=net |
| By: | Andreas Haupenthal; Matthias Neuenkirch |
| Abstract: | During the first eight months of 2015, there was an ongoing debate about whether or not Greece should remain in the euro area. Using an event study approach, we quantify the effects of Grexit-related statements made by six important euro area politicians (Merkel, Schaeuble, Tsipras, Varoufakis, Juncker, and Schulz) on intraday stock returns in Germany, Greece, and the euro area during the period of January 1, 2015-August 19, 2015. We show that positive statements indicating that a Grexit is less likely lead to higher returns, and negative statements to lower returns. The overall impact of negative statements is more pronounced. The cumulative absolute effects on stock returns are sizeable as the statements contribute to a variation of up to 58 percentage points in the ATHEX. These large effects are of particular relevance as our study only captures an eight month snapshot of the Greek government debt crisis. |
| Keywords: | Event Study, Grexit, Intraday Data, Political Statements, Stock Returns |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:201608&r=net |
| By: | Grafton, Quentin |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Political Economy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235312&r=net |
| By: | Sefiani, Yassine; Davies, Barry; Bown, Robin; Kite, Neilson |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT Purpose - The aim of this study is to uncover particular and significant methods of pursuing business connections, in the small manufacturing businesses of Tangier. Prior Work - The significance of networking and its impact on the performance of SMEs was revealed in a number of studies. There have been significant studies on the structural, relational, and cognitive dimensions of social capital in value creation. It can be noted that there are potentially significant differences in the concept of networking particularly those that are influenced by Arabic culture. Approach - A two-stage design, which incorporated both quantitative and qualitative approaches, was employed in this study. Approaches were employed in succession with the findings from the quantitative phase informing the qualitative phase. Initially, a paper and online survey questionnaire was administered to a population of 365 industrial SMEs to gain some insights on the perceptions of owner-managers of the impact of networking on business performance. Following the quantitative phase, fifteen in-depth face-to-face semi-structured interviews were conducted with selected owner-managers of SMEs, forming a judgmental selection, to explore their experiences, beliefs, and attitudes with respect to networking factor. Results - Both quantitative and qualitative phases of the study found that networking was a significant factor in influencing the success of SMEs. The concept of wasta, the Arabic word for connections, emerged from the qualitative phase. Findings show that using wasta, through politico-business networks is important since it enables access to current information that is crucial for the success of SMEs. The concept of wasta was also mentioned in relation to financial resources and suppliers. Findings revealed that strong relationships with suppliers enable firms to get financial resources in the form of trade credits. Furthermore, the relationship between wasta and human resources was also revealed. Findings showed that owner-managers use their network relations through wasta in order to recruit their staff. Implications - The findings of this study add to the understanding of networking in Arabic countries with the importance of wasta in an economy that functions on relationships. The findings of this study could therefore be useful to international managers to assist their intercultural effectiveness by adjusting to culture-specific networking in Tangier. Value - This study supports previous findings of Hutchings & Weir (2006) and contributes additional evidence that suggests the significance of wasta and its impact on SME success. |
| Keywords: | Networking, Wasta, Performance, SMEs, Arabic, Tangier |
| JEL: | M19 |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71889&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 15/2014 by Yovana Reyes Tagle, PUCP |
| Date: | 2014–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:944&r=net |
| By: | Martha Zaslow; Margaret Burchinal; Louisa Tarullo; Ivelisse Martinez-Beck |
| Abstract: | By providing an in-depth examination of thresholds of quality, specificity of quality measurement, dosage operationalized in several ways, and interactions of dosage and quality, the secondary data analyses reported here sought to extend the understanding of how early childhood care and education quality and child outcomes are related. |
| Keywords: | quality thresholds, early care, early education |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:f838e6fa4d614df4a15ea2617e971131&r=net |
| By: | Rust, Steven; Star, Megan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235596&r=net |
| By: | Jaffe, Adam B. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235337&r=net |
| By: | Tom Juille (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis; GREDEG CNRS); Dorian Jullien (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis; GREDEG CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Narrativity broadly refers to the way humans construct and use stories, be them the widely known ones in a given culture or the more private ones people tell to each other or to themselves. The main goal of this paper is to clarify the extent to which the notion of narrativity can play a role in economic analysis with respect to the representation of economic agents in models of individual behaviors. To do so, we scrutinize a set of contributions from a twofold perspective. From the perspective of economics, we seek to clarify the issues regarding which we, as economists, should be interest in narrativity. From the perspective of philosophy, we, as economic methodologists or philosopher of economics, seek to clarify the conceptual issues inherent to the notion of narrativity that are not trivial or can be of some use for economic analysis. To some extent, this twofold perspective on narrativity and economics has already been taken by John Davis (2009; 2011) and Don Ross (2005; 2014), who use the notion of narrativity to account for individuals’ sense of a unified self and identity, notably with respect to the recent surge of multipleselves models in economics. We propose to further Davis’ and Ross’ efforts in at least three respects: firstly, through a comparative study of their contributions focused on narrativity from the perspective of economics; secondly, by discussing the connections between their contributions and the set of existing contributions related to narrativity in behavioral economics that none of them discuss; and, thirdly, by taking, at least for the sake of argument, a philosophically critical perspective on narrativity. |
| Keywords: | narrativity, economic rationality, multipleselves models, behavioral economics, economics and philosophy |
| JEL: | B41 B49 D01 D03 E20 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2016-19&r=net |
| By: | Giuseppe Vitaletti (Università della Tuscia) |
| Abstract: | This abstract was written after the Conference. The discussion concentrated on the measures to solve the strong problems of EU debt. It was realized that globalisation means globalization of public intervention also, if this has to be saved. The rules which must be managed at the global level, i.e. at the level of G20 as a start, are fundamentally two. The first one regards the current balance of payments equilibrium. Now big disequilibrium of balance of payments are structural, and in the last period regarded the EU in a heavy way. The second rule regards a fiscal system which governs the rate of interest, making it tend, net to taxation, structurally to zero. This constitutes the premise of a new launch of public debt, at least in Europe, to restore employment. In tendency the public deficit may be governed in such a way to absorb the saving which, near to full employment, would remain idle. This amount may be different among countries. The change in taxation of interests makes necessary a new fiscal reform, very far from the actual principles, but well capable to reach their abstractly declaimed tasks. These new rules of taxation, which develop really the ante reform schemes, need for some aspects a general coordination: for this, and to fix the amount of deficits in the new context, EU is still necessary. The paper goes into the problems which lead to such conclusions. |
| Keywords: | euro area debt restarting, structural reduction of interest, equilibrium of current balance of payments, fiscal reform |
| JEL: | F33 F41 F62 H62 H63 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:44&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 7/2015 |
| Date: | 2015–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:904&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 6/2016 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:980&r=net |
| By: | Hisahiro Naito; Yu Takagi |
| Abstract: | From the late 2000s, racial salary discrimination against black players emerged in the National Basketball Association (NBA) league. At the same time in the United States, the income gap between white and black citizens, which had been decreasing in the previous 20 years, stalled in the mid-2000s and started to increase again from the late 2000s. In this study, we examine whether increasing racial salary discrimination against black players in the NBA is a reflection of the non-shrinking disparity of purchasing power of white and black citizens. Using census data, we calculate the median income ratio of white and black males in each metropolitan area where at least one NBA team is located. Then, we examine whether the white premium of the salary of an NBA player is correlated with the median income ratio between white and black citizens of the metropolitan area where the player's team is located. We find that the white premium becomes higher in a metropolitan area where the median income gap is smaller. This suggests that the non-shrinking income gap between white and black citizens is not the cause of increasing salary discrimination against black players in the NBA in the late 2000s and 2010s. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsu:tewpjp:2016-002&r=net |
| By: | Frey L. |
| Abstract: | La compréhension des mécanismes de rachat des contrats en assurance vie est cruciale, en particulier dans un environnement de taux bas avec un risque de remontée brutale des taux d’intérêt. Il est important pour la définition des politiques prudentielles d’avoir une vision d’ensemble de ce risque, qui puisse ainsi tenir compte d’effets systémiques, qui sont indépendants des systèmes d’information des assureurs et des spécificités de leurs sous-populations, tout en intégrant les différences entre assureurs. Une littérature empirique s’est développée sur les comportements de rachat en assurance-vie depuis les années quatre-vingt-dix, mobilisant diverses sources de données, les plus prometteuses semblant être les données issues d’enquêtes en panel auprès des ménages. Sur le plan macroéconomique, deux hypothèses principales sont étudiées : l’hypothèse du rendement, selon laquelle un assuré rachète son contrat lorsqu’il peut obtenir un meilleur rendement ailleurs, et l’hypothèse de fonds d’urgence, ou hypothèse de réserve d’argent, selon laquelle un assuré rachète son contrat lorsqu’il est confronté à un choc négatif non anticipé. Cette dernière hypothèse semble trouver le plus de support dans la littérature récente. L’impact de variables individuelles, comme l’ancienneté du contrat, est également étudié. L’enquête patrimoine de l’INSEE présente l’avantage d’être représentative de l’ensemble des assurés français, et en particulier, grâce à des techniques d’échantillonnage adaptées, elle assure une bonne représentation des ménages les plus riches qui sont ceux qui concentrent la détention d’assurance-vie. En outre, elle comporte des informations détaillées sur les caractéristiques de l’assuré, y compris sur le montant de son patrimoine et ses revenus. Néanmoins, elle présente l’inconvénient de ne comporter que très peu de données de flux, et aucun flux concernant l’assurance-vie ; seuls les encours de contrats d’assurance-vie sont disponibles par contrat individuel. Pour relier ces données aux taux de rachat observés par l’ACPR, les différents contrats d’assurance-vie de l’enquête et leurs caractéristiques détaillées sont agrégés au niveau du groupe d’assureurs (l’enquête patrimoine distingue neuf catégories d’assureurs). Les taux de rachat de ces groupes sur la période 2008-2014 sont ainsi rapprochés de l’enquête patrimoine 2010, dont les variables sont assez stables dans le temps. Des pistes d’explication peuvent alors être proposées même si, en raison de la nature des données, il n’est pas possible d’utiliser des techniques économétriques pour les étayer. L’enquête Patrimoine semble montrer qu’il existe deux sous-populations d’assurés se caractérisant principalement par la taille de leur patrimoine net. Les assurés des groupes d’assurance où les taux de rachat ont été les plus élevés sont ceux qui possèdent les plus gros patrimoines nets et également les plus gros contrats. Ce sont principalement des chefs d’entreprises, des cadres du secteur privé, en activité ou non (y compris dans les domaines artisans et commerçants), ou des professions libérales. Leur part d’Unités de Compte (UC) est plus importante, leur patrimoine financier comprend plus souvent des valeurs mobilières, la part de versements fixes est plus faible. Les rachats de ces assurés, plus diplômés et plus éduqués financièrement, répondraient principalement à une logique de rendement, au sens large, y compris avantage fiscal. Ces assurés ne donnent pas proportionnellement plus de mandats de gestion à leur banquier que les assurés avec des taux de rachat plus faibles mais gèrent plus activement eux-mêmes leurs portefeuilles de valeurs mobilières. Ces deux sous-populations distinctes ne peuvent pas intégralement être rapprochées des hypothèses de fonds d’urgence et de rendement étudiées dans la littérature. En effet, dans le cas français, du fait d’une plus faible sensibilité au chômage des ménages détenant de l’assurance-vie, l’hypothèse de fonds d’urgence est difficile à mettre en évidence. Ce qui peut être mis en évidence grâce à l’enquête patrimoine, c’est la détention d’assurance-vie comme réserve d’argent au sens large, y compris retraite. L’hypothèse de rendement net doit, pour sa part, tenir compte de l’avantage fiscal dont bénéficie l’assurance-vie, qui est important en termes de rendement net. Ainsi, les assureurs qui ont les taux de rachat les plus faibles ont aussi la plus forte proportion de contrats détenus pour des motifs de réserve d’argent. Les assureurs aux taux de rachat les plus élevés ont la plus forte proportion de contrats détenus pour des motifs de rendement net. Les éclairages tirés de cette enquête confirment la nécessité pour le superviseur de tenir compte, notamment dans les exercices de stress tests, de comportements différenciés en matière de rachats en fonction de la structure de détention par catégories socio-professionnelles et du patrimoine moyen de celles-ci. |
| Keywords: | assurance-vie, rachats, patrimoine. |
| JEL: | G22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:59&r=net |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | The financialization of commodity chains has its origins far beyond the increased participation of investment funds on the futures markets. It should basically be understood as the consequence of the progressive inability of players that make up these commodity chains to jointly manage price risk resulting from the transfer of product from upstream to downstream. This dynamic has emerged since the late 1970s, but it is likely that the current drop in prices, if it proved sustainable, and China's assertion as a financial power to strengthen the dynamic in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | commodity markets, supply, producers, prices, financialization |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb15/18&r=net |
| By: | OCDE |
| Abstract: | En moyenne, dans les pays de l’OCDE, quelque 65 % des élèves issus d’un milieu socio-économique favorisé indiquent connaître bien le concept de fonction du second degré ou en avoir souvent entendu parler, contre 43 % seulement de leurs pairs défavorisés. En moyenne, dans les pays de l’OCDE, les 20 % d’élèves les plus exposés à des tâches de mathématiques pures (équations) devancent aux épreuves PISA de mathématiques les 20 % d’élèves les moins exposés à ce type de tâches de l’équivalent de près de deux années de scolarité. L’exposition à des tâches de mathématiques appliquées simples est bien moins fortement associée à l’obtention de meilleurs résultats. Environ 19 % de l’écart de performance entre les élèves issus d’un milieu socio-économique favorisé et leurs pairs défavorisés peuvent s’expliquer par des différences de familiarité avec les mathématiques, un pourcentage qui dépasse même 30 % en Autriche et en Corée. En d’autres termes, il apparaît clairement que les élèves défavorisés se voient systématiquement dispenser un enseignement de mathématiques de moindre qualité que leurs pairs favorisés. |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:edudde:63-fr&r=net |
| By: | Marion Cochard (Banque de France); Bruno Ducoudre (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | Avec 977 000 chômeurs de plus que début 2008, le taux de chômage au sens du Bureau international du travail (BIT) de la France métropolitaine a atteint 10,0 % au quatrième trimestre 2014. La crise amorcée en 2008, alors que le chômage était passé sous le taux des 7 %, a éloigné l’espoir d’un retour au plein-emploi, En s’ancrant dans la durée, elle soulève de nouvelles questions. Les destructions d’emplois ont-elles été conformes à celles observées dans les précédentes crises, et vont-elles continuer ? Peut-on aujourd’hui parler d’une nouvelle phase de désindustrialisation ? Observe-t-on un accroissement de la précarité des travailleurs parallèlement à la hausse du chômage ? La hausse durable du chômage a-t-elle touché les populations « habituelles » ou fait évoluer structurellement les caractéristiques des chômeurs français ? Dans quelle mesure les récentes réformes du marché du travail ont-elles flexibilisé le marché du travail français ? |
| Keywords: | Cycle de productivité; Marché du travail; Chômage |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6n1ku7qsod9fd8j61g93fvgcr5&r=net |
| By: | Joyee Deb (School of Management, Yale University); Yuhta Ishii (Cowles Foundation, Yale University & Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM) |
| Abstract: | We study a canonical model of reputation between a long- run player and a sequence of short-run opponents, in which the long-run player is privately informed about an uncertain state that determines the monitoring structure in the reputation game. The long-run player plays a stage-game repeatedly against a sequence of short-run opponents. We present necessary and sufficient conditions (on the monitoring structure and the type space) to obtain reputation building in this setting. Specifically, in contrast to the previous literature, with only stationary commitment types, reputation building is generally not possible and highly sensitive to the inclusion of other commitment types. However, with the inclusion of appropriate dynamic commitment types, reputation building can again be sustained while maintaining robustness to the inclusion of other arbitrary types. |
| JEL: | C73 D82 L14 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2042&r=net |
| By: | Halbheer , Daniel; Bertini , Marco; Koenigsberg, Oded |
| Abstract: | This research studies the possibility that managers attribute firm performance to price and quality decisions in a self-serving manner: they tend to credit success in the market to the product characteristic that matches the commercial orientation of the business, but blame failure on the other. The problem with this reasoning is that managers then carry out adjustments based on biased information, which is suboptimal. The paper first models the phenomenon to clarify the cost of self-serving attributions to a firm. It then reports experiments that provide empirical support for the theory. |
| Keywords: | Causal inference; self-serving bias; managerial decision-making |
| Date: | 2016–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1142&r=net |
| By: | Stoop, Nik; Kislosho, Janvier; Verpoorten, Marijke |
| Abstract: | Le site des mines d’or de Kamituga au Sud-Kivu est caractérisé par une coexistence tendue entre Banro, une multinationale minière basée au Canada, et un grand nombre de mineurs artisanaux qui opèrent dans les concessions de la compagnie. Cette coexistence sera mise à l’épreuve à mesure que Banro développe ses activités. En vue d’évaluer ce que l’avenir peut apporter, nous étudions le profil des mineurs artisanaux et leurs mécanismes d’adaptation. En se fondant sur une enquête structurée auprès d’un échantillon représentatif des mineurs artisanaux, nous abordons trois questions spécifiques : • Les mineurs artisanaux sont-ils disposés à relocaliser leurs activités minières? • Peuvent-ils se réorienter vers d’autres activités économiques? • Dans quelles mesures la tension entre les deux modes de production pourraitelle donner lieu à des confrontations (violentes)? |
| Keywords: | Kivu; DRC; RDC; Congo; mining |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:201610&r=net |
| By: | Dale, Allan |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235267&r=net |
| By: | Toru Kitagawa (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and University College London); Jose Luis Montiel Olea (Institute for Fiscal Studies and New York University); Jonathan Payne (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the asymptotic behavior of the posterior distribution of a possibly nondifferentiable function g(theta), where theta is a finite dimensional parameter. The main assumption is that the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator theta_n, its bootstrap approximation, and the Bayesian posterior for theta all agree asymptotically. It is shown that whenever g is Lipschitz, though not necessarily differentiable, the posterior distribution of g(theta) and the bootstrap distribution of g(theta_n) coincide asymptotically. One implication is that Bayesians can interpret bootstrap inference for g(theta) as approximately valid posterior inference in a large sample. Another implication—built on known results about bootstrap inconsistency—is that the posterior distribution of g(theta) does not coincide with the asymptotic distribution of g(theta_n) at points of nondifferentiability. Consequently, frequentists cannot presume that credible sets for a nondifferentiable parameter g(theta) can be interpreted as approximately valid confidence sets (even when this relation holds true for theta). |
| Keywords: | Distribution, nondifferentiable functions |
| Date: | 2016–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:20/16&r=net |
| By: | Juan Guillermo Bedoya Ospina; Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro |
| Abstract: | Este documento tiene como objetivo realizar una aplicación de la metodología fuzzy para el análisis de la pobreza en Antioquia. Para ello se utilizan las mismas dimensiones del índice de pobreza multidimensional del Gobierno colombiano y se realiza un contraste entre los resultados obtenidos con ambas metodologías. En términos de política pública, los resultados de la aplicación metodológica indican que la pertenencia al conjunto de los pobres está determinada por las condiciones de trabajo informal, el analfabetismo, el rezago escolar y condiciones de la vivienda. |
| Keywords: | Pobreza; teoría fuzzy; política pública. |
| JEL: | I32 C02 H00 |
| Date: | 2015–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014630&r=net |
| By: | Bruno Coquet (IZA) |
| Abstract: | Une assurance chômage ne peut pas être optimale sans être à la fois obligatoire et universelle 1. Les difficultés chroniques de l ’Unedic, qui ont engendré une dette de 1,2 % du PIB fin 2015, invitent à s’interroger sur les raisons pour lesquelles, en France, l’assurance chômage ne possède aucune de ces deux caractéristiques, et à mesurer les conséquences de ce choix. |
| Keywords: | Assurance chômage; Secteur public |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7ag1gjr51l8d58gfr2jt2i00t4&r=net |
| By: | Daniel Rais |
| Abstract: | SECO Working Paper 5/2015 |
| Date: | 2015–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wti:papers:902&r=net |
| By: | Idrisov, Georgiy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Taganov, B.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the impact of the positive terms of trade shock (rise in price of oil relative to other traded goods) on inequalities in wages at the regional level. The results show the benefit of that in the medium-term improvement in the conditions of Russia's trade increased inter-regional inequality in wages by increasing wages in all quintiles of the wage distribution (ie in all of the observed income groups) are more integrated into the world economy in the Federation. We have also shown that, although the terms of trade increased inter-regional inequality individual's wage, a decrease in premiums for the skill that matches the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson theorem. |
| Keywords: | trade shock, opennes of economy, Russia, income inequalty |
| Date: | 2016–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:3136&r=net |
| By: | Ambrey, Christopher L.; Fleming, Christopher M.; Manning, Matthew |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235304&r=net |
| By: | Chong, Terence Tai-Leung; Liu, Xiaojin; Zhu, Chenqi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causes of herd behavior in the Chinese stock market. Using the non-linear model of Chang, Cheng and Khorana (2000), we find robust evidence of herding in both the up and down markets. We contribute to the existing literature by exploring the underlying reasons for herding in China. It is shown that analyst recommendation, short-term investor horizon, and risk are the principal causes of herding. However, we cannot find evidence that relates herding to firm size, nor can we detect significant differences in herding between state-owned enterprises (SOE) and non-SOEs. |
| Keywords: | A-share market; Herd behavior; Return dispersion; Systemic risk. |
| JEL: | G15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72100&r=net |
| By: | Manuel Souto-Otero (University of Bath); Andreia Inamorato dos Santos (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Robin Shields (University of Bath); Predrag Lazetic (University of Bath); Jonatan Castaño Muñoz (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Axelle Devaux (ICF International); Stephanie Oberheidt (ICF International); Yves Punie (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | OpenCases is a study which is part of the OpenEdu Project. It is a qualitative study consisting of a review of literature on open education and nine in-depth case studies of higher education institutions, a consortium of universities, a private organisation and a national initiative. It analysed the rationale and enabling conditions for involvement in open education, open education activities, strategies, impact, challenges and prospects. The main outcome of this study is evidence that a large number of OER have reached a large group of learners. However, completion rates of MOOCs are low. Accreditation is not formalised and in general its impact on employability is not measured. |
| Keywords: | open education, openness, higher education, open science, open research, OER, MOOC, open educational resources, universities |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc101533&r=net |
| By: | Chen, Wen-Hao; Piraino, Patrizio; Ostrovsky, Yuri |
| Abstract: | Comparative studies of intergenerational earnings and income mobility largely rank Canada as one of the most mobile countries among advanced economies, such as Denmark, Finland and Norway. The assertion that Canada is a highly mobile society is drawn from intergenerational income elasticity estimates reported in Corak and Heisz (1999). Corak and Heisz used data from the earlier version of the Intergenerational Income Database (IID), which tracked income of Canadian youth only into their early thirties. Recent theoretical literature, however, suggests that the relationship between childrens? and parents? lifetime income may not be accurately estimated when children?s income are not observed from their mid-careers? known as lifecycle bias. The present study addresses this concern by re-examining the extent of intergenerational earnings and income mobility in Canada using the updated version of the IID, which tracks children well into their mid-forties, when mid-career income are observed. |
| Keywords: | Aboriginal peoples, Children and youth, Health and well-being, Household, family and personal income, Income, pensions, spending and wealth, Labour, Labour market activities, Low income and inequality, Wages, salaries and other earnings |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp3e:2016379e&r=net |
| By: | Wayne Liou (Economics Department, University of Hawaii – Manoa); Timothy J. Halliday (Economics Department, University of Hawaii – Manoa and IZA) |
| Abstract: | In 2007, the State of Arizona passed the Legal Arizona Workers Act (LAWA) which required all employers to verify the legal status of all prospective employees. Replicating existing results from the literature, we show that LAWA displaced about 40,000 Mexican-born people from Arizona. About 25% of these displaced persons relocated to New Mexico indicating that LAWA had externalities on adjoining states. |
| Keywords: | Migration |
| JEL: | J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hae:wpaper:2016-9&r=net |
| By: | McAndrews, James J. (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Kroeger, Alexander (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | The policy measures taken since the financial crisis have greatly expanded the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and have thus raised the level of aggregate bank reserves as well. Over the same period there has been a significant shift in the timing of payments made over the Federal Reserve’s Fedwire Funds Service toward earlier settlement. This paper documents this timing change and presents regression results suggesting that the increase in overall reserve balances explains the vast majority of this development. The paper also discusses the benefits of high aggregate reserve balances for the robustness of the payment system and the potential implications for policy going forward. |
| Keywords: | Fedwire; settlement liquidity; reserves; monetary policy implementation |
| JEL: | G20 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:779&r=net |
| By: | Riina Vuorikari (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Yves Punie (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Stephanie Carretero Gomez (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Godelieve Van Den Brande (European Commission, DG Employment) |
| Abstract: | The European Digital Competence Framework for Citizens, also known as DigComp, offers a tool to improve citizens’ digital competence. DigComp was first published in 2013 and has become a reference for many digital competence initiatives at both European and Member State levels. This document introduces DigComp 2.0. It constitutes phase 1 of the update of the framework which focuses on the conceptual reference model, new vocabulary and streamlined descriptors. The current document also gives examples of how DigComp is used at the European, national and regional levels. |
| Keywords: | Digitally-competent educational organisations, innovation in education, European Framework for Digitally-Competent Eeducational Organisations, educational policy, digital learning technologies, self-assessment questionnaire, ICT for learning and skills |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I23 I28 I29 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc101254&r=net |
| By: | Daniel J. Lee |
| Abstract: | Implicit associations and biases are carried without awareness of conscious direction. In this paper, I develop a model to study giving behaviours under conditions of implicit bias. I test this model by implementing a novel laboratory experiment.a Dictator Game with sorting to study both these giving behaviours, as well as a subject.s willingness to be exposed to a giving environment. In doing so, I adapt the Implicit Association Test (IAT), commonplace in other social sciences, for use in economics experiments. I then compare IAT score to dictator giving and sorting as a necessary test of its validity. I find that the presence of sorting environments identify a reluctance to share and negatively predict giving. However, despite the IAT.s evergrowing popularity, it fails to predict even simple economic behaviours such as dictator giving. These results are indicative that implicit bias fails to overcome selfish interests and thus the IAT lacks external validity. Keywords: Implicit Association Test, implicit bias, race, prosocial behaviour |
| Keywords: | affirmative action, discrimination, decomposition techniques, South Africa |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-053&r=net |
| By: | Luz Dary Ramirez Franco |
| Abstract: | En este documento se presenta un estudio acerca de cómo variables de estructura económica y de estructura espacial afectaron al crecimiento del empleo en 50 provincias españolas entre los años 1999 y 2004. Para ello, se realiza una estimación por Mínimos cuadrados ordinarios que abarca los sectores de manufacturas y de servicios. Los resultados evidencian que el grueso de las empresas de la industria española es de tamaño pequeño o mediano; que existen economías de urbanización; que hay ambigüedad con respecto a las economías de localización; que los índices de centralización y concentración generan un impacto negativo y positivo respectivamente sobre el crecimiento del empleo, y que a mayor dispersión del empleo, menor crecimiento del mismo. |
| Keywords: | Estructura económica; estructura espacial; subcentros de empleo; empleo disperso. |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014627&r=net |
| By: | International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) |
| Abstract: | En la actualidad, pocos son los obstáculos a los que se enfrenta la comunidad mundial que puedan compararse en magnitud con el de la malnutrición, una condición que afecta directamente a una de cada tres personas. La malnutrición se manifiesta de muy distintas maneras: retraso en el crecimiento y el desarrollo de los niños; personas esqueléticas o propensas a las infecciones; personas con exceso de peso o con alto contenido de azúcar, sal, grasa o colesterol en la sangre; e incluso personas con carencias de vitaminas o minerales de importancia. La malnutrición y la alimentación constituyen claramente los mayores factores de riesgo para la carga mundial de morbilidad (CMM): cada país se enfrenta a un serio problema de salud pública debido a la malnutrición. Cada año, las consecuencias económicas implican pérdidas del 11% del PIB en África y Asia, mientras que la prevención de la malnutrición representa 16 dólares estadounidenses de rentabilidad de la inversión por cada dólar gastado. En todo el mundo, los países han acordado metas en materia de nutrición, pero, a pesar de ciertos avances observados en los últimos años, el mundo está lejos de poder alcanzarlas. Este tercer informe sobre el estado de la nutrición mundial propone formas de invertir la tendencia y acabar con todas las formas de malnutrición en 2030. |
| Keywords: | nutrition; malnutrition; nutrition policies; anemia; stunting; obesity; overweight; wasting disease; diabetes; children; micronutrients; health; climate change; private sector; agricultural development; agricultural policies; economic development; food systems; sustainability; poverty; breast feeding; indicators; HIV/AIDS; capacity building; public expenditure; children; sustainable development goals; wasting; burden of disease; undernourishment; undernutrition; noncommunicable diseases (NCD); child growth; Latin America; Africa south of Sahara; Oceania; South East Asia; South Asia; South America; Middle East; North Africa; Africa; Asia |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:synops:9780896299962&r=net |
| By: | Rehfeld, Dieter; Nordhause-Janz, Jürgen |
| Abstract: | Seit der Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise 2007/8 ist Industrie wieder auf der politischen Agenda. Die programmatischen Initiativen werden nur sehr allmählich mit konkreten Instrumenten unterfüttert. Gewerkschaftliche Initiativen auf der regionalen Ebene zeigen, wie breit das industriepolitische Handlungsfeld angelegt ist, und können Beispiele auch für andere Regionen liefern. Das Spektrum regionaler industriepolitischer Initiativen reicht von den täglichen Auseinandersetzungen um konkrete Projekte über Strategien zur Standortentwicklung, innovationspolitische Strategien bis hin zur Zukunftsgestaltung (Energiewende, Industrie 4.0, Elektromobilität). Erfolgreiche Industriepolitik ist langfristig und in vernetzten Strukturen anzulegen. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iatfor:062016&r=net |
| By: | Fajardo, José |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present new pricing formulas for some Power style contracts of European type when the underlying process is driven by an important class of L´evy processes, which includes CGMY model, generalized hyperbolic Model and Meixner Model, when no symmetry properties are assumed, extending and complementing in this way previous findings in the literature. Also, we show how to implement our new formulas. |
| Keywords: | Skewness; L´evy processes; Absence of symmetry; Power contracts |
| JEL: | C52 G12 G13 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71813&r=net |
| By: | Mohammad Saleh Farazi (Department of Business Organization and Marketing, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Ana Pérez-Luño (Department of Business Organization and Marketing, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Shanthi Gopalakrishnan (School of Management, New Jersey Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on knowledge structuration and its strategic implications for new research-intensive firms. These firms mainly pursue growth strategies by leveraging their knowledge-based resources and capabilities in inter-organizational relationships, while they are typically constrained on other resources. Therefore, they need to strategically develop and structure their knowledge resources in a way that guarantees their survival and serves their future goals best. Taking biotechnology firms as our research setting, we first identify groups of firms with similar generic knowledge structuration, i.e. depth and breadth of knowledge possessed by the firm. Then, drawing from organizational learning theory and knowledge-based view, we discuss how strategically structuring the technological knowledge of the firm can affect the benefits it gains from collaborating with other organizations. We provide research propositions for different strategic groups and theoretically link knowledge structuration to both exploration and exploitation alliances. |
| Keywords: | Knowledge strategy, structuration, depth, breadth, alliance, biotechnology |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpboam:16.01&r=net |
| By: | Claudia Keser; Gerrit Kimpel; Andreas Oestreicher |
| Abstract: | In this paper we look into the probability that, given the choice, corporate groups would opt for taxation on a consolidated basis. We further consider what effects separate accounting and taxation on a consolidated basis (formula apportionment) might have on the location of investments and exploitation of remaining leeway for profit shifting. To this end, we present an experimental framework that captures the most relevant aspects of theses decision for EU multinationals. In a controlled laboratory experiment we use a basic 2-by-2 treatment design with two levels of tax-rate differential between two investment locations and two different remuneration functions allowing the participants to act as owners or managers of a company. In addition, we control for the way in which information on possible extra costs associated with profit shifting is presented to participants. Our results show that taxation using formula apportionment, while being a viable alternative, does not emerge as the preferred regime. In both separate accounting and formula apportionment, the allocation of production factors depends on the tax-rate differential. Higher tax rates lead to lower amounts of investment, in particular if formula apportionment (CCCTB) is used. Moreover, profit shifts to companies not eligible for consolidation (i.e., companies not resident in the EU) are significantly higher under formula apportionment than under separate accounting. We do not observe significant differences in the behavior of managers and owners. However, the form in which information is provided on possible extra costs has an impact on the extent of profits shifted to low tax countries. |
| Keywords: | International Company Taxation; Separate Accounting; Formula Apportionment; Transfer Pricing; Experimental Economics, |
| JEL: | C91 H25 M41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-29&r=net |
| By: | Natália P. Monteiro (Department of Economics/NIPE, University of Minho); Odd Rune Straume (Department of Economics/NIPE, University of Minho) |
| Abstract: | We analyse empirically whether cooperatives and investor-owned fims differ in terms of productive efficiency. Using rich Portuguese panel data covering a wide range of industries, we apply two different empirical approaches to estimate potential diffferences in total factor productivity between the two groups of fi rms. The results from our benchmark random-effects model show that cooperatives are signi cantly less productive, on average, than investor-owned fi rms. This conclusion is to a large extent confi rmed by the results from System-GMM estimations. The lower productivity of cooperatives applies to a wide spectrum of industries. In six out of thirteen industries, cooperatives are outperformed by investor-owned firms in all empirical speci cations considered, while there is no industry in which cooperatives are consistently found to be the more productive type of firm. |
| Keywords: | Cooperatives; investor-owned fi rms; productive effiiciency |
| JEL: | D24 J54 P12 P13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:09/2016&r=net |
| By: | Angela Gerolamo; Amy Overcash; Jennifer McGovern; Grace Roemer |
| Abstract: | This report describes the New Jersey Nursing Initiative design, evaluation findings, and key lessons learned, and it offers recommendations for improving program operations and evaluation. |
| Keywords: | New Jersey, Nursing Initiative, Faculty Preparation |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:817d66fcf4ce460eb359e6b4f96ce575&r=net |
| By: | Berdin, Elia; Pancaro, Cosimo; Kok Sørensen, Christoffer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop an analytical framework for conducting forward-looking assessments of profitability and solvency of the main euro area insurance sectors. We model the balance sheet of an insurance company encompassing both life and non-life business and we calibrate it using country level data to make it representative of the major euro area insurance markets. Then, we project this representative balance sheet forward under stochastic capital markets, stochastic mortality developments and stochastic claims. The model highlights the potential threats to insurers solvency and profitability stemming from a sustained period of low interest rates particularly in those markets which are largely exposed to reinvestment risks due to the relatively high guarantees and generous profit participation schemes. The model also proves how the resilience of insurers to adverse financial developments heavily depends on the diversification of their business mix. Finally, the model identifies potential negative spillovers between life and non-life business thorugh the redistribution of capital within groups. |
| Keywords: | Financial Stability,Insurance,Interest Rate Risk,Stress Test |
| JEL: | G20 G22 G23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:icirwp:2116&r=net |
| By: | Stefano Colonnello; G. Curatola; N. G. Hoang |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of managerial compensation structure and asset risk choice. The model provides predictions about the relation between credit spreads and different compensation components. First, we show that credit spreads are decreasing in inside debt only if it is unsecured. Second, the relation between credit spreads and equity incentives varies depending on the features of inside debt. |
| Keywords: | inside debt, credit spreads, risk-taking |
| JEL: | G32 G34 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:20-16&r=net |
| By: | Roel Jongeneel; Nico Polman; G. Cornelis van Kooten |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a theoretical model for identifying the appropriate welfare measures associated with the positive and negative externalities of agricultural production. Implications of methodological assumptions are discussed, and the model is then used to estimate the costs and benefits associated with the negative and positive externalities of the Dutch agricultural sector. Efforts are made to cross-validate cost estimates empirically, and we also estimate the value of the non-commodity outputs that Dutch farmers provide. The non-market costs and benefits attributable to farming are then set against the value-added of the agricultural sector as a whole. Total value-added benefits are estimated to be €10,604 million a year. The external annual costs are calculated to be €1,868 million, significantly greater than estimated external gross benefits of €263 million, but much less than value added. Using all available information, total average annual net benefits from agriculture in the Netherlands are estimated to be €8,736 million per year for the period 2005 to 2012. Nonetheless, net external costs are equivalent to €849 per ha of arable, horticultural and pasture land, and are high relative to estimates found for other countries. |
| Keywords: | environmental spillovers; applied welfare measurement; agricultural externalities; agricultural value added; non-agricultural commodities |
| JEL: | D61 Q15 Q18 Q51 Q57 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rep:wpaper:2016-04&r=net |
| By: | Klüh, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | Two opposing positions are frequently evoked to describe the relationship between macroeconomics and social policy. On the one hand, social policy is seen as a kind of service station. Macroeconomic programs and results are determined first, social policy deals with the consequences. On the other hand, there is a holistic approach of Keynesian provenience that situates macroeconomics in the broader research agenda for social policy. At the same time, points of contact between macroeconomics and social policy are rare. Sometimes there even seems to be a dichotomous relationship. How can we then describe the role of social policy in a macroeconomic context, and the role of macroeconomics in a social policy context? The article reviews pertinent links between the two fields and proposes a heuristic for re-engaging the macro and social dimension of policy. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics, Social Policy, Macro-regimes, Keynesianism |
| JEL: | A1 B0 B5 E0 E6 H0 I3 N0 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71784&r=net |
| By: | Bó, Inácio; Heller, C.-Philipp |
| Abstract: | We show that Ergin & Sönmez's (2006) results which show that for schools it is a dominant strategy to truthfully rank the students under the Boston mechanism, and that the Nash equilibrium outcomes in undominated strategies of the induced game are stable, rely crucially on two assumptions. First, (a) that schools need to be restricted to find all students acceptable, and (b) that students cannot observe the priorities set by the schools before submitting their preferences. We show that relaxing either assumption eliminates the strategy dominance, and that Nash equilibrium outcomes in undominated strategies for the simultaneous induced game in case (a) and subgame perfect Nash equilibria in case (b) may contain unstable matchings. We also show that when able to manipulate capacities, schools may only have an incentive to do so if students submit their preferences after observing the reported capacities. |
| Keywords: | Mechanism Design,Two-Sided Matching,Boston Mechanism,School Choice |
| JEL: | C78 D63 D78 D82 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wzbmbh:spii2016204&r=net |
| By: | Yang, Xiaojun; Li, Jun |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235378&r=net |
| By: | Joshua Hall (West Virginia University, Department of Economics); Shree Baba Pokharel (West Virginia University, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using cross-sectional data from fifty states of the United States and the District of Columbia for two different time periods, this paper examines the degree to which special interests or the median voter determines state highway expenditures. In addition to finding that previous estimates of the determinants of state highway expenditures are robust, we find that that special interests that were important in 1984 were no longer significant nearly 20 years later. Like the previous literature, we conclude that the reduced form median voter model performs well in explaining state highway expenditures. |
| Keywords: | median voter model, special interests, highway expenditures |
| JEL: | H41 H49 H60 H72 H76 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wvu:wpaper:16-09&r=net |
| By: | Gregg, Daniel |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235317&r=net |
| By: | Roberton C. Williams III |
| Abstract: | This paper examines potential environmental tax policy reforms. It focuses primarily on a carbon tax, but also more briefly considers a range of other possible changes. These include revising or eliminating various energy and environmental tax credits and deductions (many of which might become unnecessary in the presence of a carbon tax), as well as changes to energy taxes that have substantial environmental implications (such as the federal gasoline tax). The paper draws on recent theoretical and empirical research to evaluate the effects of such reforms on tax revenue, pollution emissions, economic efficiency, and income distribution. |
| JEL: | H21 H22 H23 Q50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22303&r=net |
| By: | Kompas, Tom; Van Ha, Pham; Nguyen, Hoa |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235368&r=net |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Yannis Psycharis; Vassilis Tselios |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the role of pork-barrel politics in the allocation of public investment expenditures in Greece. It proposes a model which explicitly relates the allocation of public investment to electoral results using a unique dataset covering the period from the restoration of democracy in 1974 until 2009, just before the Great Recession that radically transformed the political panorama of the country. The analysis includes ten legislative periods marked by governments of the two parties that dominated the political arena in Greece: the Liberal and the Socialist Party. The results show that Socialist and re-elected governments applied more expansionary fiscal policies relative to Liberals. The two main parties also used different tactics when it came to pork-barrelling: while the Socialists when in government rewarded/groomed their electoral fiefs, the Liberals invested in areas controlled by the opposition to win over new votes or seats. |
| Keywords: | Public investment, pork-barrel politics, elections, regional policy, Greece. |
| JEL: | P16 R1 R12 R42 R58 H54 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gov:wpregi:1605&r=net |
| By: | Shengyuan Zhang (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Jimin Zhao (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to understand the existing urban passenger transport system in Hong and Shenzhen from the perspective of human travel behavior, examining closely what policy and individual factors influence individual travel behavior in the two cities. The research is based on comparisons drawn from household and individual travel surveys conducted in Shenzhen in 2014 and in Hong Kong in 2002 and 2011. Hong Kong operates a more efficient urban passenger transport system than Shenzhen in terms of prioritizing use of public transport and restricting the use of cars. However, due to lack of strong government leadership, Hong Kong lags behind Shenzhen in promoting EVs. Both cities have had little success promoting nonmotorized transportation because of the greater appeal of alternative transportation modes. |
| Keywords: | ASIF, carbon emissions, energy consumption, urban transportation, scenario analysis, transportation policy |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201634&r=net |
| By: | Kara Zivin; Ann O'Malley; JudyAnn Bigby; Jonathan Brown; Eugene Rich |
| Abstract: | This issue brief describes why behavioral health integration in primary care is so important in terms of improving care quality and reducing costs. |
| Keywords: | primary care, behavioral health, payment reform, AHRQ, MACRA, MIPS, CMS |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ebd57c692e6a43ceb0c1b323f4032ccd&r=net |
| By: | Joachim Freyberger (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Matthew Masten (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Abstract: | We provide general compactness results for many commonly used parameter spaces in nonparametric estimation. We consider three kinds of functions: (1) functions with bounded domains which satisfy standard norm bounds, (2) functions with bounded domains which do not satisfy standard norm bounds, and (3) functions with unbounded domains. In all three cases we provide two kinds of results, compact embedding and closedness, which together allow one to show that parameter spaces defined by a ||·||s-norm bound are compact under a norm ||·||c. We apply these results to nonparametric mean regression and nonparametric instrumental variables estimation. |
| Keywords: | Nonparametric estimation, sieve estimation, trimming, nonparametric instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C14 C26 C51 |
| Date: | 2016–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:01/16&r=net |
| By: | Pamela Campa; Michel Serafinelli |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the extent to which attitudes are affected by political regimes and government policies. We focus on female attitudes toward work and gender-role attitudes in the population at large, which have been shown to have significant effects on labor market outcomes. We exploit the imposition of state-socialist regimes across Central and Eastern Europe, and their efforts to promote womenÕs economic inclusion, for both instrumental and ideological reasons, presenting evidence from two different datasets. First, we take advantage of the German partition into East and West after 1945 and unique access to restricted information on place of residence to implement a spatial regression discontinuity design. We find more positive attitudes toward work in the sample of East German women. We also find evidence that increased female access to higher education and fulltime employment, arguably two of the very few positive aspects of living under state-socialism, may have served as channels for regime influence. Second, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy that compares attitudes formed in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) and Western European Countries (WECs), before and after the imposition of state socialism in CEECs. Gender-role attitudes formed in CEECs during the state socialist period appear to be significantly less traditional than those formed in WECs. |
| Keywords: | gender-role attitudes, state-socialism, Central and Eastern Europe |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:don:donwpa:089&r=net |
| By: | Bo Honoré (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Princeton); Áureo de Paula (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a bivariate version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. It allows for simultaneity in the econometric sense that the two realized outcomes depend structurally on each other. Another feature of the proposed model is that it will generate equal durations with positive probability. The motivating example is retirement decisions by married couples. In that example it seems reasonable to allow for the possibility that each partner's optimal retirement time depends on the retirement time of the spouse. Moreover, the data suggest that the wife and the husband retire at the same time for a nonnegligible fraction of couples. Our approach takes as a starting point a stylized economic model that leads to a univariate generalized accelerated failure time model. The covariates of that generalized accelerated failure time model act as utility-flow shifters in the economic model. We introduce simultaneity by allowing the utility flow in retirement to depend on the retirement status of the spouse. The econometric model is then completed by assuming that the observed outcome is the Nash bargaining solution in that simple economic model. The advantage of this approach is that it includes independent realizations from the generalized accelerated failure time model as a special case, and deviations from this special case can be given an economic interpretation. We illustrate the model by studying the joint retirement decisions in married couples using the Health and Retirement Study. We provide a discussion of relevant identifying variation and estimate our model using indirect inference. The main empirical nding is that the simultaneity seems economically important. In our preferred speci cation the indirect utility associated with being retired increases by approximately 5% when one's spouse retires. The estimated model also predicts that the marginal eff ect of a change in the husbands' pension plan on wives' retirement dates is about 3.3% of the direct eff ect on the husbands'. |
| JEL: | J26 C41 C3 |
| Date: | 2016–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:07/16&r=net |
| By: | Frank Milne (Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at providing advice to young Australian Politicians and Policy Analysts. The paper explains common dangers in policy formulation and implementation. It also explains the usual political pressures that distort policy formulation and common sources of policy failures. |
| Keywords: | Economic Policy formulation and implementation, Australia |
| JEL: | E60 E65 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1360&r=net |
| By: | Lowrey , Tina M; Kronrod , Ann |
| Abstract: | When developing new brand names, marketers face the dilemma of how similar their new brand name is or should be to familiar brand names in the market. The current research tests the complete range of conditions exploring how the degree of similarity of a new brand name to an existing one may affect attitudes toward the new brand name. The authors first replicate an inverted-U pattern suggested by congruency theories. However, this result holds only in the case of positive pre-existing attitudes toward familiar brand names. Additional tests demonstrate a U-shaped pattern in the case of negative attitudes toward familiar brand names, and a linear relation between similarity and attitudes in the case of no pre-existing attitudes toward familiar brand names. A field study replicates these findings, testing actual choice of products that bear different levels of resemblance to real positive and negative brand names (Oreo and Spam). |
| Keywords: | Brand name; Branding; Brand attitudes; Similarity; Familiarity; Innovation |
| Date: | 2016–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1121&r=net |
| By: | Stephen S. Poloz |
| Abstract: | Financial stability risks have become topical in the wake of the global financial crisis and the subsequent extended period of very low interest rates. This paper investigates the significance of the mix of monetary and fiscal policies for financial stability through counterfactual simulations of three key historical episodes, using the Bank’s main policy model, ToTEM (Terms-of-Trade Economic Model). The paper finds that there is an intimate relationship between the monetary/fiscal policy mix and the dynamics of both private sector and public sector debt accumulation. No attempt is made to develop criteria for policy mix optimization, since it is clear from the model simulations that the appropriate policy mix is highly state-dependent. This finding points to the need for a coherent framework for weighing the relative financial and macroeconomic consequences of accumulating public sector versus private sector debt. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that there are potential benefits to ex ante monetary/fiscal policy coordination, and that Canada’s policy framework—where the monetary and fiscal authorities jointly agree on an inflation target while enshrining central bank operational independence—represents an elegant coordinating mechanism. |
| Keywords: | Economic models, Financial stability, Fiscal Policy, Monetary policy framework |
| JEL: | E37 E5 E63 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-13&r=net |
| By: | Tunç, Süleyman |
| Abstract: | Sensitivity for the protection of consumers increase more and more every day and the subject becomes an agenda in the public opinion. Studies carried out under different names and legal arrangements in the pre-industrial societies, are accelerated by industrialization. The provisions regarding the Consumer Protection entered into the Turkish Legislation by the Constitution of 1982, have taken their last shape in the Act No. 6502 enacted in the year of 2013 and the relevant Regulations. The internet, which is an indispensable element in the globalized world, has become an important platform where the consumers voiced their complaints. The aim of this study is to analyze the complaints most shared over the internet and to examine the regulations made by the Act No. 6502 related to these complaints. |
| Keywords: | Consumer, Consumer Protection, Complaints, Law No. 6502 |
| JEL: | K19 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69623&r=net |
| By: | Drazen, Allan; Ozbay, Erkut |
| Abstract: | We present experimental evidence that policies chosen by leaders depend on whether they were elected or appointed. Consistent with previous studies of the "dictator game" , we find that unitary policymakers do not always act selfishly, that is, choose a policy that maximizes their own payoffs. However, the way in which one became the leader matters. Leaders who are elected are significantly more likely to choose a policy not equal to their "type" than leaders who are appointed. Elected leaders who act non-selfishly will favor the voter rather than the losing candidate, while appointed leaders show no tendency to favor the voter over the losing candidate. Our results provide support for the view that non-selfish behavior of leaders reflects a reciprocity motive. They also show that candidates do not simply implement their own preferences once in office, as suggested by the basic citizen-candidate model. |
| Keywords: | Citizen-Candidate; Dictator Game; leaders; Reciprocity |
| JEL: | C91 D64 D72 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11338&r=net |
| By: | Subha Mani; Saurabh Singhal; Smriti Sharma; Utteeyo Dasgupta |
| Abstract: | Heterogeneity in subject populations often necessitates choosing an elicitation task that is intuitive, easy to explain, and simple to implement. Given that subject behaviour often differs dramatically across tasks when eliciting risk preferences, caution needs to be exercised in choosing one risk elicitation task over another.Using a within-subject design, we compare behaviour in the simple most investment game (Gneezy and Potters 1997) and the ordered lottery choice game (Eckel and Grossman 2002) to evaluate whether the simpler task allows us to elicit attitudes consistent with those elicited from the ordered lottery task.Using a large sample of over 2000 subjects, we find risk attitudes to be fairly stable across the two tasks. Our results further indicate that the consistency of risk attitudes across the tasks depends on gender of the subject, quantitative skills, father.s education level, and dispositional factors such as locus of control and Big Five personality traits. |
| Keywords: | Experimental design, Risk |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-047&r=net |
| By: | Loughrey, Jason; Donnellan, Trevor; Lennon, John |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we seek to identify spatial clusters of farmland size inequality across Western Europe and to discuss the implications for the future of agriculture and agricultural policy reform in the region. We utilise Eurostat data to estimate the degree of inequality in farmland size at the NUTS (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) 2 level. We utilise geographical information systems software to illustrate the spatial distribution of farm size inequality and conduct exploratory spatial data analysis techniques to identify spatial dependence between neighbouring NUTS 2 regions. The findings show that there are clusters of low inequality in the countries of Northern Europe and clusters with high inequality in much of Southern Europe. The highlands of Scotland are a notable exception to the general trend in Northern Europe. The variation in farmland size is a key determinant in the distribution of farm income. In combination with high farmland prices and sparse land rental opportunities, a highly unequal farm size distribution can militate against the progress of new-entrant farmers and small farmers wishing to expand their production and increase their farm incomes. A highly unequal farm size distribution can therefore grant an elevated importance to land inheritance as a determinant of relative economic success at the farm level. |
| Keywords: | Farm Size, Inequality, Western Europe, Spatial Autocorrelation, Agricultural and Food Policy, C21, D31, 013, Q12, Q15, R58, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236341&r=net |
| By: | Marta Arespa (Universitat de Barcelona); Diego Gruber (Kernel Analytics) |
| Abstract: | Existent literature is by no means conclusive on the effects of trade finance on trade and the economy. We propose a suitable framework to explore the linkages between international trade and finance based on an international real business cycle model where firms require external finance to import and can be financially constrained. We find that credit shocks do affect the dynamic properties of the economy and they have the potential to cause significant deviations in trade and economic performance. The trade-to-GDP ratio falls following a negative credit shock, as the shock reduces the capability of firms to purchase foreign intermediate goods, thereby reducing efficiency and production. However, it forces a demand substitution towards domestic intermediate goods that limits GDP deterioration. We also find that financially developed countries trade more, are richer and more stable in terms of GDP and consumption, consistent with the empirical evidence. Finally, the model sheds light on persistent contradictions between theoretical business-cycle and their empirical counterparts, namely, the consumption/output anomaly and the volatility of consumption, imports and terms of trade relative to GDP. |
| Keywords: | Trade finance, credit constraint, great trade collapse, RBC |
| JEL: | E3 F1 F4 G1 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:341web&r=net |
| By: | Messori, Luciano (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit); Orsini, Raimondello (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit) |
| Abstract: | La fama di John Bates Clark (1847-1938) è legata soprattutto al suo contributo alla teoria marginalista della distribuzione del reddito e alla diffusione del marginalismo negli Stati Uniti. La sua opera di gran lunga più conosciuta è The Distribution of Wealth: A Theory of Wages, Interest and Profits, pubblicato nel 1899, che mostra come in un’economia statica la distribuzione della ricchezza tra i fattori di produzione sia proporzionale alla produttività marginale di ciascuno di essi. Nonostante la sua produzione scientifica abbia spaziato su un'ampia gamma di questioni, sia di teoria economica e sociale, sia di politica economica, con approcci metodologici anche molto diversi, già i suoi allievi diretti ed i suoi colleghi ebbero la tendenza a enfatizzare il suo ruolo di teorico, didatta e divulgatore dell'economia marginalista, e quindi principalmente i suoi contributi funzionali alla migliore definizione e sistematizzazione dell'analisi microeconomica neoclassica. Già nel 1927, in un volume pubblicato in occasione degli ottanta anni di Clark, il suo collega alla Columbia University, Jacob H. Hollander, scrive: The real work of John B. Clark as an economist lies within the thirteen years from 1886 to 1899. |
| Keywords: | John Bates Clark; economia marginalista; |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2016–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:aiccon:2016_148&r=net |
| By: | Johnston, Robert J.; Holland, Ben; Yao, Liuyang |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235342&r=net |
| By: | Gillespie, Patrick R.; Hynes, Stephen; O'Reilly, Paul |
| Abstract: | The Waterville fishery provides angling and other recreation amenities to the public at a nominal cost. However, the use-value which this site provides is not completely captured by market transactions. Benefits which must be consumed in situ make the Travel Cost Method (TCM) the most appropriate choice of revealed preference technique for estimating their value. Data for this analysis was sourced from an online survey, but many respondents were first approached on-site, and links to the survey questionnaire were also advertised on a local conservation website, so self-selection bias was expected. A negative binomial model with a correction for endogenous stratification was estimated, and it outperformed both the standard Negative Binomial and Poisson models. The resulting estimate of per trip consumer surplus was €300. Furthermore, there was a lack of any evidence to support the idea that the site’s benefits are inferior goods. In light of this, and of the high use-values associated with the site, the conclusion drawn from the analysis is that future development plans should prioritise the health of the local ecosystem before other quality improving measures. |
| Keywords: | coastal, fishery, benefit cost, consumer surplus, TCM, travel cost, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Q220, Q260, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236357&r=net |
| By: | Kuek, Tai Hock |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the literature on monetary neutrality in India from empirical perspectives. Based on monetary neutrality proposition, increment in money supply has no effect on real variables in the long-run. In another words, monetary injection into the economy by the government will not trigger or promote real economic growth as in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the long-run. With monetary neutrality proposition, effectiveness of the current monetary policies in an economy can be examined. For the case of India, mixed results have been obtained on the issue of monetary neutrality. |
| Keywords: | Monetary neutrality, literature review, India |
| JEL: | E4 |
| Date: | 2016–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71962&r=net |
| By: | Kristin Forbes; Dennis Reinhardt; Tomasz Wieladek |
| Abstract: | Have bank regulatory policies and unconventional monetary policies—and any possible interactions—been a factor behind the recent “deglobalisation” in cross-border bank lending? To test this hypothesis, we use bank-level data from the UK—a country at the heart of the global financial system. Our results suggest that increases in microprudential capital requirements tend to reduce international bank lending and some forms of unconventional monetary policy can amplify this effect. Specifically, the UK’s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) significantly amplified the effects of increased capital requirements on cross-border lending. Quantitative easing did not appear to have a similar effect. We find that this interaction between microprudential regulations and the FLS can explain roughly 30% of the contraction in aggregate UK cross-border bank lending between mid-2012 and end-2013, corresponding to around 10% of the global contraction in cross-border lending. This suggests that unconventional monetary policy designed to support domestic lending can have the unintended consequence of reducing foreign lending. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22307&r=net |
| By: | Alejandro Esteller (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Barcelona Economics Institute, University of Barcelona); Amedeo Piolatto (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Barcelona Economics Institute, University of Barcelona); Matthew Rablen (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Brunel University) |
| Abstract: | The taxation of high-income earners is of importance to every country and is the subject of a considerable amount of recent academic research. Such high-income earners contribute substantial amounts of tax and generate signifi cant positive spillovers, but are also highly mobile: a 1% increase in the top marginal income tax rate increases out-migrations by around 1.5 to 3%. We review research into taxation of high-income earners to provide a synthesis of existing theoretical and empirical understanding. We o ffer various avenues for potential future theoretical and empirical research. |
| Keywords: | high-income earners, mobility, tax avoidance |
| Date: | 2016–04–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:16/07&r=net |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Nwachukwu, Jacinta C. |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the April 2015 World Bank Publication on MDGs which reveals that poverty has been declining in all regions of the world with the exception of African countries, this study investigates the effects of a plethora of foreign aid dynamics on inequality adjusted human development. Contemporary and non-contemporary OLS, Fixed-effects and a system GMM technique with forward orthogonal deviations are employed. The empirical evidence is based on an updated sample of 53 African countries for the period 2005-2012.The following findings are established. First, the impacts of aid dynamics with high degrees of substitution are positive. These include aid for: social infrastructure, economic infrastructure, the productive sector and multi-sectors. Second, the effect of humanitarian assistance is consistently negative across specifications and models. Third, the effects of programme assistance and action on debt are ambiguous because they become positive with the GMM technique. Justifications for these changes and clarifications with respect to existing literature are provided. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the post-2015 development agenda. We also provide some recommendations for a rethinking of theories and models on which development assistance is based. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | B20 F35 F50 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71788&r=net |
| By: | Saglam, Ismail |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether a Cournot oligopoly with unknown costs should be left unregulated, or regulated according to the optimal mechanism of Gradstein (1995), or first monopolized and then regulated according to the optimal mechanism of Baron and Myerson (1982). We show that the answer to this question depends on the number of the oligopolistic firms and the size of their fixed costs, as well as on the weight of the producer welfare in the social objective function. |
| Keywords: | Monopoly; Oligopoly; Cournot Competition; Regulation; Asymmetric Information |
| JEL: | D82 L51 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71796&r=net |
| By: | Cestone, Giacinta; Fumagalli, Chiara; Kramarz, Francis; Pica, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | We investigate how Internal Labor Markets (ILMs) allow organizations to accommodate shocks calling for costly labor adjustments. Using data on workers' mobility within French business groups, we find that adverse shocks affecting affiliated firms boost the proportion of workers redeployed to other group units rather than external firms. This effect is stronger when labor regulations are stricter and destination-firms are more efficient or enjoy better growth opportunities. Affiliated firms hit by positive shocks rely on the ILM for new hires, especially high-skilled workers. Overall, ILMs emerge as a co-insurance mechanism within organizations, providing job stability to employees as a by-product. |
| Keywords: | Business Groups; Co-Insurance; Internal Labor Markets |
| JEL: | G30 J08 J40 L22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11336&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report presents a framework for analysing Internet openness, the factors that influence it, and its effects. It also presents initial qualitative and quantitative evidence on the effects of Internet openness. Among the key findings are that Internet openness consists of many technical, economic and social elements and that overall openness is vital for reaping the Internet’s potential benefits. Those benefits include positive effects on trade, innovation and entrepreneurship, macroeconomic performance, and social wellbeing. However, openness also presents challenges, as bad actors sometimes take advantage of it when conducting malicious activities. While the global, decentralised and interconnected nature of the Internet prevents individual countries from determining openness unilaterally, governments nevertheless take policy actions that can affect openness. Policymakers should bear in mind that even though there are legitimate reasons for setting certain boundaries, drifting away from a general preference for Internet openness is economically and socially costly. |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:257-en&r=net |
| By: | Alexander Schied; Leo Speiser; Iryna Voloshchenko |
| Abstract: | We use functional pathwise It\=o calculus to prove a strictly pathwise version of the master formula in Fernholz' stochastic portfolio theory. Moreover, the portfolio-generating function may depend on the entire history of the asset trajectories and on an additional continuous trajectory of bounded variation. Our results are illustrated by several examples and shown to work on empirical market data. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.03325&r=net |
| By: | Gilberto Tadeu Lima (Department of Economics, University of São Paulo); Mark Setterfield (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | A central element in the canonical Kaleckian growth model is the demand-led output-adjustment stability condition known as the Keynesian stability condition. This condition requires that, all else constant, saving be more responsive to changes in capital capacity utilization than investment. This paper further explores the plausibility of the Keynesian stability condition by enriching the Kaleckian growth model with a more fully developed Keynesian theory of expectations formation. As a result, the responsiveness of investment to changes in capacity utilization is reduced, and through mechanisms that have clear and plausible behavioural underpinnings. It therefore becomes more likely (in principle) that the Keynesian stability condition will hold in practice. The paper also explores the consequences of such re-specification of investment behaviour for certain comparative static results associated with the canonical Kaleckian growth model. |
| Keywords: | Keynesian stability condition, expectations, Kaleckian growth model |
| JEL: | B50 E12 E22 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:new:wpaper:1602&r=net |
| By: | Takashi Kunimoto; Roberto Serrano |
| Abstract: | We come close to characterizing the class of social choice correspondences that are implementable in rationalizable strategies. We identify a new condition, which we call set-monotonicity, and show that it is necessary and almost sufficient for rationalizable implementation. Set-monotonicity is much weaker than Maskin monotonicity, which is the key condition for Nash implementation and which also had been shown to be necessary for rationalizable implementation of social choice functions. Set-monotonicity reduces to Maskin monotonicity in the case of functions. We conclude that the conditions for rationalizable implementation are not only starkly different from, but also much weaker than those for Nash implementation, when we consider social choice correspondences. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bro:econwp:2016-4&r=net |
| By: | Luigi Butera (Becker Friedman Institute for Research in Economics (BFI), Department of Economics, University of Chicago); Daniel Houser (Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science and Department of Economics, George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | Philanthropy, and particularly ensuring that ones giving is effective, can require substantial time and effort. One way to reduce these costs, and thus encourage greater giving, could be to encourage delegation of giving decisions to better-informed others. At the same time, because it involves a loss of agency, delegating these decisions may produce less warm-glow and thus reduce one’s charitable impulse. Unfortunately, the importance of agency in charitable decisions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, using a laboratory experiment with real donations, we shed light on this issue. Our main finding is that agency, while it does correlate with self-reported warm-glow, nevertheless seems to play a small role in encouraging giving. In particular, people do not reduce donations when giving decisions are made by (costly) algorithms that guarantee efficient recipients. Moreover, we find participating in giving groups a weaker form of delegation is also effective in that they are appealing to donors who would not otherwise make informed donations, and thus improves overall effective giving. Our results suggest that one path to promoting effective giving may be to create institutions that facilitate delegated generosity. |
| Keywords: | Altruism, Laboratory Experiment, Agency, Charitable Giving |
| JEL: | C9 D64 D71 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gms:wpaper:1060&r=net |
| By: | Claude Diebolt; Ralph Hippe |
| Abstract: | In a recent contribution, Redding and Schott (2003) add human capital to a two sector NEG model, highlighting that remoteness represents a penalty that gives disincentives to invest in human capital. But is this hypothesis consistent with long-term evidence? We test the persistence of this effect at the regional level in an historical setting. The results show that market access has a significant positive influence on human capital in OLS, Tobit and IV regression models. Thus, the paper confirms the ‘penalty of remoteness’ hypothesis for Europe in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, New Economic Geography, Regional Development, Market Access. |
| JEL: | I21 N33 N93 R11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2016-32&r=net |
| By: | Allan, Corey; Kerr, Suzi |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235235&r=net |
| By: | Freebairn, John |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews the contribution of Australian economists to understand the effects of a boom export industry on: the real exchange rate; output, prices and factor incomes of the boom industry, other trade exposed industries and non-traded industries; and national income and its distribution. Theoretical models and empirical models are reviewed. Differences in boom economy effects are considered for supply side versus demand side driven booms, and over the different price increase, investment increase and production increase phases of the boom. Some evaluation of government industry and macroeconomic policy options is canvassed. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235308&r=net |
| By: | Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck (Department of Business and Economics); Barslund, Mikkel (Centre for European Policy Studies); Vanhuysse, Pieter (Department of Political Science and Public Management) |
| Abstract: | We ask whether EU membership has been associated with increased domestic economic growth. Using different causal identification strategies, different time periods, different country samples, and different datasets, we are unable to demonstrate the presence of a membership growth premium. This may reflect that GDP data are too noisy and/or causal identification too complicated, in which case we should remain agnostic about the EU’s growth impact. Alternatively, it may reflect that EU membership simply has no effect on prosperity. |
| Keywords: | EU membership; economic growth; single market |
| JEL: | F43 F45 O40 P20 |
| Date: | 2016–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sdueko:2016_002&r=net |
| By: | Nordquist, Dale W.; Nitchie, Donald L.; Paulson, Garen J.; Knorr, Tonya L.; Froslan, Janet M.; VanderPoel, Connie |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Productivity Analysis, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:umaesp:236927&r=net |
| By: | Anais Maillet |
| Abstract: | Among other factors, food markets volatility has been explained by variations in production originating either in exogenous shocks affecting crops or in errors in anticipations due to non-rational expectations. We propose an alternative source of variations based on acreage decisions from rational farmers subject to imperfect information on shocks. Depending on the type of shock, more precise information does not necessarily reduce food price volatility. With a shock on input prices for example, the price is only indirectly affected by the shock through aggregate supply. In that case better information increases production and price volatility. However if the price is also directly affected by the shock then the effect of information can be reversed. With a global production or demand shock, we show that more information reduces price volatility, which implies that forecasts about climate, pests, diets, biofuel policies, etc. can help preventing excessive food price variations. |
| JEL: | F13 I38 Q11 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsc:fstech:8&r=net |
| By: | Waśniewski, Krzysztof |
| Abstract: | The present paper aims at assessing the possible efficiency of the principle of national contributions, assumed in the 2015 Paris Framework Convention on Climate Change. Strong historical evidence indicates that any significant development of constitutional states used to take place, in the past, on the rising tide of demographic growth. Presently, we are facing global demographic slowdown, and contesters argue that constitutional states are not the right address to write to if we want breakthrough technological change. This paper assumes that the capacity of constitutional states to carry out the obligations declared in the Framework Convention, i.e. to carry out deep technological changes in the global economy, depends on their economic power, which can be estimated as their capacity to appropriate capital. Empirical data, examined in this article, indicates that since the 1980s, constitutional states have been losing their economic power, and that the overall technological progress is more and more disconnected from that economic power of governments. Moreover, constitutional states seem to be losing their capacity to experiment with their own institutions. |
| Keywords: | Institutions; constitutional state; political economy |
| JEL: | B0 B5 H0 H1 H3 H8 |
| Date: | 2016–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71710&r=net |
| By: | Fouarge, D. (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark); Dijksman, S. (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark; Externe publicaties SBE) |
| Abstract: | De Beroepenindeling ROA CBS 2014 (afgekort BRC 2014) die in dit document wordt toegelicht is een van de International Standard Classification of Occupations 2008 (ISCO 2008) afgeleide indeling bedoeld voor toepassing in analyses en statistieken op nationaal niveau. De BRC 2014 is tot stand gekomen na overleg tussen de organisaties ROA en CBS. |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2015005&r=net |
| By: | Bo Xiong; John C. Beghin (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | A possible Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) agreement will further integrate agricultural markets between the United States and the European Union. The elimination of tariffs and cooperation on sanitary and phytosanitary measures will promote cross-Atlantic trade. We empirically estimate the impacts of tariffs and Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) on trade in plant products between the two partners. Furthermore, we simulate trade expansions under plausible negotiation outcomes. We find that a TTIP agreement promotes cross-Atlantic trade in plant products, in both directions, by over 60% if tariffs are removed and MRLs are mutually recognized or harmonized to Codex levels. |
| Keywords: | Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP, maximum residue limit, MRL, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, tariff, trade agreement, NTM JEL: Q17, F15 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:16-wp566&r=net |
| By: | Esteban Ezequiel Maito |
| Abstract: | El presente trabajo analiza la acumulación de capital en Argentina durante el último siglo. A lo largo del mismo se observa un sostenido descenso de la tasa de ganancia, explicado principalmente por el crecimiento de la composición del capital y la tendencia a la sobreacumulación relativa de capital. Se presenta, tanto para la tasa de ganancia como para la composición de valor del capital, un análisis de la evolución de sus principales componentes. En el marco de una tendencia a la sobreacumulación de capital fijo respecto al valor agregado, la participación de las ganancias en el producto muestra una tendencia descendente debido al incremento tendencial del consumo de capital fijo y los impuestos netos y, hasta la última dictadura, de la participación asalariada. |
| Keywords: | Argentina; Acumulación de capital; Distribución funcional; Tasa de ganancia; Composición del capital |
| JEL: | E01 E22 P10 |
| Date: | 2015–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000418:014625&r=net |
| By: | The Evaluation Partnership and Ramboll |
| Abstract: | The overall aim of the present study was to contribute to and complete the Performance Measurement Framework already partially drafted by the Commission in order to enable the measurement of the Customs and Fiscalis 2020 programmes’ implementation, processes and results using a comprehensive, detailed and feasible monitoring system |
| Keywords: | European Union, Perfomance Measurement Framework, tax policy, customs policy, Customs2020, Fiscalis2020 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0062&r=net |
| By: | Alexei Onatski; Chen Wang |
| Abstract: | Johansen’s (1988, 1991) likelihood ratio test for cointegration rank of a Gaussian VAR depends only on the squared sample canonical correlations between current changes and past levels of a simple transformation of the data. We study the asymptotic behavior of the empirical distribution of those squared canonical correlations when the number of observations and the dimensionality of the VAR diverge to infinity simultaneously and proportionally. We find that the distribution almost surely weakly converges to the so-called Wachter distribution. This finding provides a theoretical explanation for the observed tendency of Johansen’s test to find “spurious cointegration”. It also sheds light on the workings and limitations of the Bartlett correction approach to the over-rejection problem. We propose a simple graphical device, similar to the scree plot, for a preliminary assessment of cointegration in high-dimensional VARs. |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1637&r=net |
| By: | Grégoire ROTA-GRAZIOSI (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)) |
| Abstract: | Pareto-improving tax coordination, and even tax harmonization, are Nash implementable between sovereign countries without any supranational tax authorities. Following Schelling's approach, we consider voluntary commitment, which constrains countries' respective tax rate choices. We develop a commitment game where countries choose their strategy sets in preliminary stages and play consistently during the final one. We determine the set of tax rates, which are implementable by commitment. This allows countries to reach Pareto-improving equilibriums. We also establish that complete tax harmonization may emerge as the subgame perfect Nash equilibrium of the commitment game as long as the asymmetry between countries remains limited. Our analysis contributes to the rationale of tax ranges and, more broadly, of non binding but self-enforcing commitments (not equivalent to cheap talk) in the context of tax competition. |
| Keywords: | Tax coordination, Commitment. |
| JEL: | C72 H30 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1815&r=net |
| By: | Faia, Ester |
| Abstract: | Data show that sovereign risk reduces liquidity, increases funding cost and risk of banks highly exposed to it. A feedback loop exists between sovereign and bank risk. I build a model that rationalizes those links. Banks act as delegated monitors and invest in risky projects and in risky sovereign bonds. As investors hear rumors of increased sovereign risk, they run the bank (via global games). Banks could rollover liquidity in repo market using government bonds as collateral, but as sovereign risk raises collateral values shrink. Overall banks' liquidity falls (its cost increases) and so does banks' credit. In this context noisy news (announcements with signal extraction) of consolidation policy are recessionary in the short run, as they contribute to investors and banks pessimism, and mildly expansionary in the medium run. The banks liquidity channel plays a major role in the fiscal transmission. |
| Keywords: | banks' funding costs; feedback loops; liquidity risk; repo freezes.; sovereign risk |
| JEL: | E5 E6 G3 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11340&r=net |
| By: | van der Velden, R.K.W. (Research Centre for Educ and Labour Mark); van der Maas, H. (External organisation) |
| Abstract: | De Programmaraad voor fundamenteel onderwijsonderzoek (PROO) van het Nationaal Regieorgaan Onderwijsonderzoek (NRO) heeft in het najaar van 2013 een commissie ingesteld met als opdracht de PROO te adviseren over de toekomst van het door de PROO gefinancierde cohortonderzoek. Aanleiding is het feit dat de subsidieperiode voor het lopende cohortonderzoek COOL5-18 (vanaf nu aangeduid als COOL) in 2016 afloopt. De vraag aan de commissie was of en zo ja op welke wijze hieraan in 2017 een vervolg dient te worden gegeven. |
| Date: | 2015–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarep:2015001&r=net |
| By: | Xu, Kun; Gua, Zhi-hua; Xu, Wenli |
| Abstract: | Taking Anhui province as an example, this paper analyzes economic effects of fiscal investment from local government. Firstly, results from analyzing structure of fiscal investment show that: the major part of fiscal investment is supply of public goods and services, in particular infrastructure and social management; local government prefers domestic firms more, in special national and private enterprise. Further, results of panel model, based on industries, shows that: fiscal investment restrains production; scales of fiscal investment exert little impact on growth. It implies that increasing incomes, decelerating pubic investment, and deregulating production decision are potential approaches to spur persistent growth. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Investment; Public Goods; Economic Growth; Nation-Owned Firms |
| JEL: | H54 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71829&r=net |
| By: | Tyrefors Hinnerich, Bjorn (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Vlachos, Jonas (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Sweden has a school voucher system with universal coverage and full acceptance of corporate providers. Using a value added approach, we find that students at upper- secondary voucher schools on average score 0.06 standard deviations lower on externally graded standardized tests in first year core courses. The negative impact is larger among lower achieving students (but not among immigrant students), the same students who are most prone to attend voucher schools. For high achieving students, the voucher school impact is around zero. Comparing internal and external evaluations of the same standardized tests, we find that voucher schools are 0.14 standard deviations more generous than municipal schools in their internal test grading. The greater leniency in test grading is relatively uniform across different groups, but more pronounced among students at academic than vocational programs. The findings are consistent with voucher schools responding more to differences in educational preferences than municipal schools. |
| Keywords: | Voucher schools; student achievement; grading standards |
| JEL: | H40 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2016_0002&r=net |
| By: | Miguel García-Posada (Banco de España); Raquel Vegas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, bankruptcy procedures in Spain have been lengthy and costly processes that have nearly always (95%) resulted in the liquidation of the insolvent firm. These dysfunctions became apparent with the large increase in bankruptcy filings during the crisis that started in 2008 and the ensuing congestion of the courts. In order to resolve these and other problems, the Bankruptcy Law has been reformed several times. The goal of this research is to analyse the impact of these reforms on two facets: the length of bankruptcy procedures and the probability of achieving a successful reorganisation, hence avoiding the firm’s liquidation. Our findings show that two of the four reforms analysed increased the percentage of reorganisations and decreased bankruptcy duration through improving the quality of insolvency administrators and by fostering out-of-court workouts for large corporations. |
| Keywords: | bankruptcy, reorganisation, liquidation, duration analysis, competing risks |
| JEL: | G33 C41 K22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1610&r=net |
| By: | Giammario Impullitti; Omar Licandro |
| Abstract: | We study the welfare gains originating from pro-competitive effects of trade liberalization in an economy with heterogeneous firms, variable markups and endogenous growth. Variable markups arise from oligopoly trade in similar goods, and cost-reducing innovation is the engine of sustained productivity growth. Trade liberalization stiffens product market competition by reducing markups, generating tougher firm selection and increasing the aggregate productivity level. Market share reallocations triggered by selection increase firms’ incentives to innovate, thereby leading to a higher aggregate productivity growth rate. Endogenous productivity growth boosts the selection gains from trade, leading to substantial welfare improvements. A calibrated version of the model shows that growth doubles the gains from trade obtainable in models with static firm-level productivity. |
| Keywords: | Endogenous Growth, Heterogeneous Firms, Oligopoly, Variable Markups, Dynamic Gains from Trade. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:16/05&r=net |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | Con este trabajo sobre las cuentas de los hogares, los autores desean reafirmar el potencial analítico de la contabilidad nacional para describir e interpretar la estructura y el comportamiento de uno de los sectores más importantes de la economía, motor de la demanda y a la vez generador de una parte considerable de la producción nacional, al menos en América Latina y el Caribe. Además, este sector es beneficiario en última instancia de las rentas de la propiedad y de la empresa y fuente de un importante excedente que impulsa los mecanismos de acumulación social en los países de la región. En el documento se rescatan varias sugerencias del informe de la Comisión Stiglitz, en particular la necesidad de enfocar con mayor atención la medición del ingreso y del consumo de los hogares para comprender los aspectos relacionados con la distribución del ingreso y de la riqueza, el bienestar humano y el desarrollo sostenible. En el texto se describen los elementos fundamentales de las encuestas de ingresos y gastos de los hogares, así como la arquitectura de las cuentas de este sector institucional de acuerdo con el Sistema de Cuentas Nacionales 2008 (SCN 2008). |
| Keywords: | CUENTAS NACIONALES, HOGARES, BIENESTAR SOCIAL, INGRESOS FAMILIARES, GASTOS FAMILIARES, ENCUESTAS, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, HOUSEHOLDS, SOCIAL WELFARE, FAMILY INCOME, HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES, SURVEYS |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col023:40174&r=net |
| By: | Andersson, Tommy (Department of Economics, Lund University); Kratz , Jörgen (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a pairwise kidney exchange program that includes patient-donor pairs in which the patients can receive a kidney across the blood group barrier from their own donors. Patients in such pairs gain strictly by an exchange if they are matched to a fully compatible donor. We study the set of priority matchings where the number of patients matched to fully compatible donors is maximized among all priority matchings and where all matched patients that can receive a kidney across the blood group barrier from their own donors are matched to fully compatible donors. The main result demonstrates that matchings in this set can be identified by solving an appropriately defined maximum weight matching problem. It is also demonstrated that the inclusion of patients that can receive a kidney across the blood group barrier from their own donors will not reduce the number of transplants for patients with incompatible donors, as all patients involved in an exchange before the inclusion are still involved in an exchange after the inclusion. |
| Keywords: | market design; pairwise kidney exchange; blood group incompatibility; priority matchings; half-compatibility priority matchings |
| JEL: | C78 D02 D63 D78 |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_011&r=net |
| By: | Tapsuwan, Sorada; Mathot, Claire; Walker, Iain |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235634&r=net |
| By: | Ireneaus Wolff |
| Abstract: | Most social-preference models have been tailored to yield only a full-defection equilibrium in one-shot linear public-good situations. This paper determines the Nash-equilibrium sets that result from experiment participants’ elicited preferences. The data show that multiple equilibria are relatively frequent even in a standard three-player setting. In this perspective, the common finding of close-to-omnilateral defection at the end of repeated public-good games is surprising and raises the question of why the dynamics of play seem to select this equilibrium out of the existing equilibria. |
| Keywords: | Public good, social dilemma, Nash-equilibrium, conditional cooperation, social preferences |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:twi:respas:0105&r=net |
| By: | Paolo Barucca; Marco Bardoscia; Fabio Caccioli; Marco D'Errico; Gabriele Visentin; Stefano Battiston; Guido Caldarelli |
| Abstract: | We introduce a network valuation model (hereafter NEVA) for the ex-ante valuation of claims among financial institutions connected in a network of liabilities. Similar to previous work, the new framework allows to endogenously determine the recovery rate on all claims upon the default of some institutions. In addition, it also allows to account for ex-ante uncertainty on the asset values, in particular the one arising when the valuation is carried out at some time before the maturity of the claims. The framework encompasses as special cases both the ex-post approaches of Eisenberg and Noe and its previous extensions, as well as the ex-ante approaches, in the sense that each of these models can be recovered exactly for special values of the parameters. We characterize the existence and uniqueness of the solutions of the valuation problem under general conditions on how the value of each claim depends on the equity of the counterparty. Further, we define an algorithm to carry out the network valuation and we provide sufficient conditions for convergence to the maximal solution. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.05164&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Many cars sold today are already capable of some level of automated operation, and prototype cars capable of driving autonomously have been - and continue to be - tested on public roads in Europe, Japan and the United States. These technologies have arrived rapidly on the market and their future deployment is expected to accelerate. Autonomous driving promises many benefits: improved safety, reduced congestion and lower stress for car occupants, among others. Authorities will have to adapt existing rules and create new ones in order to ensure the full compatibility of these vehicles with the public’s expectations regarding safety, legal responsibility and privacy. This report explores the strategic issues that will have to be considered by authorities as more fully automated and ultimately autonomous vehicles arrive on our streets and roads. |
| Date: | 2015–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:7-en&r=net |
| By: | Marzinotto, Benedicta (University of Udine); Turrini, Alessandro (European Commission) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the relationship between government and manufacturing wages. We find that the long-run relation between the two wages is stronger when the government is a large employer. Manufacturing wages are better aligned with productivity and unemployment when public wages, to which they respond, are set through bargaining. Finally, manufacturing wages react in the same way whether public wages are increased or cut, a relation that seems to hold also under fiscal consolidation provided the public sector is a large employer. |
| Keywords: | government wages, wage-setting, cost competitiveness, fiscal consolidation, cointegration |
| JEL: | C32 E24 E62 H59 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9964&r=net |
| By: | Swati Dhingra; Gianmarco Ottaviano; John Van Reenen; Jonathan Wadsworth |
| Abstract: | A major argument of Brexit campaigners is that leaving the European Union would give the UK more control over the flow of immigrants, who they claim hurt the jobs and pay of native-born workers. CEP research shows that EU immigration is at worst neutral and at best, an economic benefit of membership. |
| Keywords: | immigration, EU Referendum, jobs, wages, UK economy, Brexit |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:471&r=net |
| By: | Börsch-Supan, Axel; Quinn, Christopher (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper motivates and describes the tax treatment of German retirement benefits and pensions after the 2005 reform initiated by the German Federal Constitutional Court. The main question is whether this reform has produced a “level playing field†among the many instruments generating retirement income in Germany. The paper briefly outlines rational principles for the taxation of retirement benefits and pensions and compares these with current practice in Germany and abroad. |
| Date: | 2015–11–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mea:meawpa:201510&r=net |
| By: | Karim El Mokri; Tayeb Ghazi |
| Abstract: | Le bassin Atlantique occupe une place stratégique dans l’économie mondiale vu le poids systémique que représente la partie Nord de la région. Néanmoins, cet espace demeure très hétérogène avec des écarts importants entre les économies qu’il englobe. Les analyses menées dans ce Brief montrent également le manque de synchronisation du cycle économique entre les pays de la région mais surtout le faible degré d’intégration commerciale et financière de la partie africaine du bassin. En outre, il est constaté que les pays africains continuent de pâtir d’une faible intégration entre eux. Ces éléments militent certes, vers la nécessité pour l’Afrique d’identifier les opportunités qu’offre l’espace atlantique et de les saisir, mais surtout d’accélérer les réformes domestiques pour accroître leurs capacités productives, exploiter les complémentarités économiques potentielles au niveau infra-africain, tout en accordant une attention particulière aux mutations de l’économie mondiale eu égard au rôle que peut jouer l’Asie dans les années à venir. |
| Keywords: | atlantique, développement, économie, Afrique, croissance, PIB, intégration, exportation, importation |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-16/19&r=net |
| By: | Alisdair McKay; Ricardo Reis |
| Abstract: | Should the generosity of unemployment benefits and the progressivity of income taxes depend on the presence of business cycles? This paper proposes a tractable model where there is a role for social insurance against uninsurable shocks to income and unemployment, as well as inefficient business cycles driven by aggregate shocks through matching frictions and nominal rigidities. We derive an augmented Baily-Chetty formula showing that the optimal generosity and progressivity depend on a macroeconomic stabilization term. Using a series of analytical examples, we show that this term typically pushes for an increase in generosity and progressivity as long as slack is more responsive to social programs in recessions. A calibration to the U.S. economy shows that taking concerns for macroeconomic stabilization into account raises the optimal unemployment benefits replacement rate by 13 percentage points but has a negligible impact on the optimal progressivity of the income tax. More generally, the role of social insurance programs as automatic stabilizers affects their optimal design. |
| JEL: | E62 H21 H30 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22359&r=net |
| By: | Thesmar, David; Brunnermeier , Markus K; Garicano , Luis; Lane, Philip R; Pagano , Marco; Reis, Ricardo; Santos , Tano; Van Nieuwerburgh , Stijn; Vayanos , Dimitri |
| Abstract: | We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks’ domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt. Third, such requirements shrink even further if banks only hold the senior tranche of an internationally diversified sovereign portfolio – known as ESBies in the euro-area context. Finally, ESBies generate more safe assets than domestic debt tranching alone; and, insofar as the diabolic loop is defused, the junior tranche generated by the securitization is itself risk-free. |
| Keywords: | diabolic loop; sovereign debt crisis; government default; bank default; bailout; ESBies |
| JEL: | G18 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1133&r=net |
| By: | Peter K. Kruse-Andersen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | A Schumpeterian growth model is developed to investigate how environmental policy affects economic growth when environmental policy also affects the direction of technical change. In contrast to previous models, production and pollution abatement technologies are embodied in separate intermediate good types. A set of stylized facts related to pollution emission, environmental policy, and pollution abatement expenditures is presented, and it is shown that the developed model is consistent with these stylized facts. It is shown analytically that a tightening of the environmental policy unambiguously directs research efforts toward pollution abatement technologies and away from production technologies. This directed technical change reduces economic growth and pollution emission growth. Simulation results indicate that even large environmental policy reforms have small economic growth effects. However, these economic growth effects have relatively large welfare effects which suggest that static models and exogenus growth models leave out an important welfare effect of environmental policy. |
| Keywords: | Directed technical change, endogenous growth, pollution, environmental policy, Schumpeterian growth model |
| JEL: | O30 O41 O44 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1606&r=net |
| By: | Roberta De Filippis (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Antonio Guarino (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Philippe Jehiel (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Toru Kitagawa (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and University College London) |
| Abstract: | We present a novel experimental design to study social learning in the laboratory. Subjects have to predict the value of a good in a sequential order. We elicit each subject’s belief twice: first (“prior belief”), after he observes his predecessors’ action; second (“posterior belief”), after he observes a private signal on the value of the good. We are therefore able to disentangle social learning from learning from a private signal. Our main result is that subjects update on their private signal in an asymmetric way. They weigh the private signal as a Bayesian agent would do when the signal confirms their prior belief; they overweight the signal when it contradicts their prior belief. We show that this way of updating, incompatible with Bayesianism, can be explained by ambiguous beliefs (multiple priors on the predecessor’s rationality) and a generalization of the Maximum Likelihood Updating rule. |
| Keywords: | Social learning |
| Date: | 2016–05–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:18/16&r=net |
| By: | Santiago Gamba-Santamaria; Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez (Banco de la República de Colombia); Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia (Banco de la República de Colombia); Jorge Luis Hurtado-Guarin (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | We extend the framework of Diebold and Yilmaz [2009] and Diebold and Yilmaz [2012] and construct volatility spillover indexes using a DCC-GARCH framework to model the multivariate relationships of volatility among assets. We compute spillover indexes directly from the series of asset returns and recognize the time-variant nature of the covariance matrix. Our approach allows for a better understanding of the movements of financial returns within a framework of volatility spillovers. We apply our method to stock market indexes of the United States and four Latin American countries. Our results show that Brazil is a net volatility transmitter for most of the sample period, while Chile, Colombia and Mexico are net receivers. The total spillover index is substantially higher between 2008Q3 and 2012Q2, and shock transmission from the United States to Latin America substantially increased around the Lehman Brothers’ episode. Classification JEL: G01, G15, C32 |
| Keywords: | Volatility spillovers, DCC-GARCH model, Stock market linkages, financial crisis |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:943&r=net |
| By: | Calzolari, Giacomo; Colliard, Jean-Edouard; Lóránth, Gyöngyi |
| Abstract: | We study the supervision of multinational banks (MNBs), allowing for either national or supranational supervision. National supervision leads to insufficient monitoring of MNBs due to a coordination problem between supervisors. Supranational supervision solves this problem and generates more monitoring. However, this increased monitoring can have unintended consequences, as it also affects the choice of foreign representation. Indeed, supranational supervision encourages MNBs to expand abroad using branches rather than subsidiaries, resulting in more pressure on their domestic deposit insurance fund. In some cases, it discourages foreign expansion altogether, so that financial integration paradoxically decreases. Our framework has implications on the design of supervisory arrangements for MNBs, the European Single Supervisory Mechanism being a prominent example. |
| Keywords: | Banking Union; Cross-border banks; Monitoring; Multinational banks; regulation; Supervision |
| JEL: | F23 G21 G28 L51 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11326&r=net |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk |
| Abstract: | La vision stratégique 2015-2030 constitue une innovation dans le domaine éducatif marocain. Contrairement aux réformes précédentes, cette vision aborde à des problèmes qui ont été longtemps occultés. Parmi ces problèmes figure la qualité de l’enseignement. Si cette dernière meublait toujours les programmes des anciennes réformes, elle est considérée comme l’une des priorités de cette nouvelle vision. L’objectif du présent Policy Brief est de dresser un état des lieux des acquis scolaires, partie intégrante de la qualité de l’enseignement, des élèves inscrits en quatrième année du primaire. Nous nous appuyions sur les enquêtes « Trends in Mathematics and Science Study » (TIMSS) et « Progress In Reading and Literacy Study » (PIRLS) auxquelles le Maroc a participé. La finalité consiste à mettre en lumière les déficits accumulés tout au long de ces dernières années. |
| Keywords: | éducation, Maroc, enseignement, réforme, TIMSS, PIRLS, lecture, mathématique, alphabétisation |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-16/14&r=net |
| By: | Izryadnova, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the following issues: the basic tendencies of development of modern gambling market; general and specific features of the legal regulation of the organization and conduct of gambling; the basic principles of the creation, management and regulation of activities of the organization and conduct of gambling; mechanism of regulation of the activity of gambling zones. |
| Keywords: | gambling market, gambling zones, legal regulation |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1446&r=net |
| By: | Fabiana Gómez (University of Bristol); Jorge Ponce (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | We formally compare the effects of minimum capital requirements, capital buffers, liquidity requirements and loan loss provisions on the incentives of bankers to exert effort and take excessive risk. We find that these regulations impact differently the behavior of bankers. In the case of investment banks, the application of capital buffers and liquidity requirements makes it more difficult to achieve the first best solution. In the case of commercial banks, capital buffers, reserve requirements and traditional loan loss provisions for expected losses provide adequate incentives to bank managers, although the capital buffer is the most powerful instrument. Counter-cyclical (so-called dynamic) loan loss provisions may provide bank managers with incentives to gamble. The results inform policy makers in the ongoing debate about the harmonization of banking regulation and the implementation of Basel III. |
| Keywords: | Banking regulation, minimum capital requirement, capital buffer, liquidity requirement, (countercyclical) loan loss provision, commercial banks, investment banks, bankers' incentives, effort, risk; Regulación bancaria, requerimiento mínimo de capital, colchones de capital, requerimientos de liquidez, provisiones (contracíclicas), bancos comerciales, bancos de inversión, incentivos del banquero, esfuerzo, riesgo |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bku:doctra:2015005&r=net |
| By: | Christian Basteck; Marco Mantovani |
| Abstract: | Unsophisticated applicants can be at a disadvantage under manipulable and hence strategically demanding school choice mechanisms. Disclosing information on applications in previous admission periods makes it easier to assess the chances of being admitted at a particular school, and hence may level the playing field between applicants who differ in their cognitive ability. We test this conjecture experimentally for the widely used Boston mechanism. Results show that, absent this information, there exists a substantial gap between subjects of higher and lower cognitive ability, resulting in significant differences in payoffs, and ability segregation across schools. The treatment is effective in improving applicants. strategic performance. However, because both lower and higher ability subjects improve when they have information about past demands, the gap between the two groups shrinks only marginally, and the instrument fails at levelling the playing field. |
| Keywords: | laboratory experiment, school choice, strategy-proofness, cognitive ability, mechanism design |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-065&r=net |
| By: | Juan A. Lacomba (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.); Francisco M. Lagos (Department of Economic Theory and Economic History, University of Granada.); Ernesto Reuben (Columbia University.); Frans Van Winden (University of Amsterdam.) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study two games of conflict characterized by unequal access to productive resources and finitely repeated interaction. In the Noisy Conflict game, the winner of the conflict is randomly determined depending on a players’ relative conflict expenditures. In the Decisive Conflict game, the winner of the conflict is simply the player who spends more on conflict. By comparing behavior in the two games, we evaluate the effect that “decisiveness” has on the allocation of productive resources to conflict, the resulting inequality in the players’ final wealth, and the likelihood that players from long-lasting peaceful relations.. |
| Keywords: | conflict; decisiveness; inequality; peace; rent seeking |
| JEL: | D72 D74 C92 |
| Date: | 2016–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gra:wpaper:16/04&r=net |
| By: | Shaar, Karam; Zubaidi, Ahmad |
| Abstract: | The US and China report substantially different figures regarding their trade with each other. Empirical studies suggest that neither the US nor China can be solely blamed for this discrepancy. Previous empirical studies investigating the effects of Yuan depreciation on US-China trade largely retrieved the data from one side only without even citing which side it is. This study extends the literature regarding the dynamic effects of exchange rate on trade balance, known as the J-Curve Theory, by employing the trade data reported by the US and China independently in empirical assessment. We tested 38 trade commodities over the period 1987-2012 and found that: (i) discrepancy in trade data affects the accuracy of testing the J-Curve considerably. (ii) the coefficients suggesting that Yuan depreciation increases the US bilateral trade deficit with China seem much less inconsistent compared with the coefficients claiming the opposite. This applies to short and long run. We propose Mutual Confirmation as a robustness check for the empirical assessment of the J-Curve Theory. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate depreciation, Trade data discrepancy, ARDL, US-China trade, Mutual confirmation, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vuw:vuwecf:5145&r=net |
| By: | Uluc Aysun (University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL) |
| Abstract: | We calculate borrowing spreads for over 8,000 U.S. firms and investigate how these are related to the stance of monetary policy. After 2009, we observe, consistent with credit channel theory, a positive relationship between shadow federal funds rates and borrowing spreads for only firms with high borrowing spreads and low quality. Conversely, we find a negative relationship for firms (of high and low quality) with low borrowing spreads. These relationships are reversed for the period before 2008. Our results uncover the distortional effects of monetary policy. Loose monetary policy causes spreads to converge (diverge) across firms after 2009 (before 2008). |
| Keywords: | credit channel; zero lower bound; firm-level data; shadow rates |
| JEL: | E44 E51 E52 G10 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfl:wpaper:2016-01&r=net |
| By: | Cörvers, Frank (ROA / Human capital in the region); Dijksman, Sander (ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Fouarge, Didier (ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Poulissen, Davey (ROA / Training and employment) |
| Abstract: | Vanwege het toenemend belang van regionale arbeidsmarktinformatie stelt het Researchcentrum voor Onderwijs en Arbeidsmarkt (ROA) van de Universiteit Maastricht sinds 2013 regionale arbeidsmarktprognoses naar opleiding voor Nederland op.1 Deze regionale prognoses zijn afgeleid van en dienen tevens ter aanvulling op de bekende landelijke arbeidsmarktprognoses. Dit technisch rapport geeft de methodiek weer die gevolgd is bij het vertalen van de landelijke arbeidsmarktprognoses van het ROA naar 35 arbeidsmarktregio’s alsook een beknopt overzicht van enkele resultaten ter illustratie van de gehanteerde methodiek. De volledige regionale prognoses zijn beschikbaar via het ArbeidsmarktInformatieSysteem (AIS), waarmee gebruikers zelf op eenvoudige wijze de gewenste tabellen kunnen samenstellen.2 Daarnaast zal het ROA in het najaar van 2016 een publicatie uitbrengen dat gericht is op de resultaten van de regionale prognoses ter aanvulling op de hier gepresenteerde methodiek. Ook zal het ROA middels de regionale arbeidsmarktprognoses een bijdrage leveren aan de Regio in Beeld publicaties van het UWV die voor elke arbeidsmarktregio apart worden uitgebracht (najaar 2016). |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umarot:2016005&r=net |
| By: | Stefano STAFFOLANI (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali); Maria Cristina RECCHIONI (Università Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Management) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a theoretical model of enrollment decisions made by high school graduates, under the assumption that their choices are strongly influenced by the educational standard(s), roughly de ned as what students are expected to have learned by the end of the course. Higher standards reduce the probability of graduation but increase the accumulation of human capital and future earnings. The policy maker decides whether standards are set equally for all universities (centralization) or autonomously by each university (decentralization). In the centralized setting, the model establishes relationships among the standards that maximize di erent objectives: graduation, enrollment, and human capital. Speci cally, the standard that maximizes graduation is lower than the one that maximizes enrollment, which, in turn, is lower than the one that maximizes human capital. The decentralized setting may perform worse than the centralized one in terms of these three objectives if moving costs exist, while it always performs worse in terms of inter-generational mobility in education. |
| Keywords: | Education, University, Standards, Human Capital, Inequality, Regulation of Educational System |
| JEL: | J24 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wpaper:419&r=net |
| By: | Christopher Jepsen (University College Dublin); Peter Mueser (University of Missouri-Columbia); Kyung-Seong Jeon (University of Missouri-Columbia) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides novel evidence on the labor-market returns to proprietary (also called for-profit) postsecondary school attendance. Specifically, we link administrative records on proprietary school attendance with quarterly earnings data for nearly 70,000 students. Because average age at school entry is 30 years of age, and because we have earnings data for five or more years prior to attendance, we estimate a person fixed-effects model to control for time-invariant differences across individuals. By five years after entry, quarterly earnings returns are around 26 percent for men and 21-22 percent for women. Average returns are quite similar for associate’s degree programs and certificate programs, but vary substantially by field of study. Differences in return by gender are completely explained by differences in field of study. |
| Keywords: | postsecondary education, labor-market returns, proprietary schooling |
| JEL: | J24 I26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:1607&r=net |
| By: | Yang, Cathy L; Toubia, Olivier; de Jong, Martijn G |
| Abstract: | A perennial problem in choice experiments is that consumers may not behave as they would in real life. Incentive alignment, whereby each decision is realized with some probability, is often seen as a solution to this problem. However, if processing information is costly, incentive-alignment should not be enough to motivate participants to process choice-relevant information as carefully as they would if the decision was to be realized with certainty. Moreover, the probability that a choice will be realized influences its psychological distance, which should have a systematic impact on the type of alternatives chosen by consumers. We empirically investigate how incentives impact attention, information processing, and choice. We vary the probability that the respondent’s choice will be realized from 0 (hypothetical) to 0.01, 0.50, 0.99, and 1 (deterministic). Based on response time and eye tracking data, we find a positive correlation between the probability that the choice will be realized and the level of attention. Respondents for whom choices are more likely to be realized also tend to choose more familiar products, and tend to be more price sensitive. The latter effect is driven by respondents who care more about the product category. |
| Keywords: | incentive alignment; choice experiments; preference measurement; eye tracking |
| JEL: | C81 C91 M31 |
| Date: | 2015–10–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1114&r=net |
| By: | Gauti B. Eggertsson; Neil R. Mehrotra; Sanjay R. Singh; Lawrence H. Summers |
| Abstract: | Conditions of secular stagnation - low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth - characterize much of the global economy. We consider an overlapping generations, open economy model of secular stagnation, and examine the effect of capital flows on the transmission of stagnation. In a world with a low natural rate of interest, greater capital integration transmits recessions across countries as opposed to lower interest rates. In a global secular stagnation, expansionary fiscal policy carries positive spillovers implying gains from coordination, and fiscal policy is self-financing. Expansionary monetary policy, by contrast, is beggar-thy-neighbor with output gains in one country coming at the expense of the other. Similarly, we find that competitiveness policies including structural labor market reforms or neomercantilist trade policies are also beggar-thy-neighbor in a global secular stagnation. |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 F33 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22299&r=net |
| By: | José-Ignacio Antón; Francisco-Javier Braña; Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo |
| Abstract: | This article presents for the first time a comparative study of the cost of disability for households in 31 European countries. In order to do so, we exploit the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, its special module on housing conditions for 2007 and 2012 and employ two alternative methodologies, one based on how difficult it is for households to make ends meet and the other related to the access of households to a set of services and assets. The comparative nature of the present analysis shows these national estimates of the cost disability from a broader perspective than previous research. One important finding of this study is that there is a significant diversity in the cost of disability across European countries, with Scandinavian countries at the top of the ranking and Eastern European states at the bottom. We discuss some possible explanatory reasons for the pattern of costs across countries found in our analysis. |
| Keywords: | disability, cost, standard of living, income, welfare |
| JEL: | I10 I30 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2016_07&r=net |
| By: | Olivia Serdeczny; Eleanor Waters; Sander Chan |
| Abstract: | The concept of non-economic loss and damage (NELD) groups the impacts of climate change that are hard to measure or quantify. This paper outlines the main characteristics of NELD and the specific challenges they pose to research and policy-making at the national and international level. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:die:dpaper:03/16&r=net |
| By: | Harold Cole; Daniel Neuhann; Guillermo Ordoñez |
| Abstract: | What a country has done in the past, and what other countries are doing in the present, can feedback for good or for ill in debt markets. We develop a simple model of sovereign bond markets with global investors and endogenous information acquisition about fundamental default probabilities. This model displays hysteresis and contagion in sovereign bond spreads. Small fundamental shocks in one country can induce investors to acquire information, generating price volatility and increased risk premia. These changes may also induce investors to rebalance their portfolio, generating market segmentation and information acquisition in seemingly unrelated economies. Information regimes may persist over time, requiring large improvements in fundamentals to return to more stable bond spread conditions. |
| JEL: | F34 F42 G15 H63 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22330&r=net |
| By: | Paul Dolan; Georgios Kavetsos |
| Abstract: | There is increasing interest in subjective well-being (SWB) both in academic and policy circles. As a result, considerable research efforts are now being directed at the validity and reliability of SWB measures. This study examines how SWB reports differ by survey mode. Using data from the April 2011 to March 2012 Annual Population Survey in the UK we find that individuals consistently report higher SWB over the phone compared to face-to-face interviews. We also show that the determinants of SWB differ significantly by mode, with life circumstances tending to matter more in face-to-face interviews. These results have substantial implications for research and policy purposes. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being; Happiness; Survey mode; Valuation |
| JEL: | D60 I30 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66915&r=net |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | 2015 was the worst year for world trade since the aftermath of the global financial crisis, with figures exhibiting a decline of almost 14% in dollar value terms. In fact, world trade volumes have lagged behind GDP growth since the 2000s, a trend accentuated since the onset of the global financial crisis, whereas global trade increases took place at a higher pace than world GDP prior to the new millennium. Although some transitional – and therefore potentially reversible – explaining factors may be pointed out, some structural trends have also been at play. Given that trade has been a key driver of global growth, income convergence, and poverty reduction, concerns have been raised over whether the current directions of world trade lead towards a lesser development-boosting potential. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-16/15&r=net |
| By: | Elizaveta Lukmanova (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Gabriele Tondl (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates a new category of influential factors on business cycle synchronization (BCS), so far hardly regarded in the BCS literature: It provides an empirical assessment of the impact of macroeconomic imbalances, as monitored by the European Commission by the scoreboard indicators since 2011, on BCS in the Euozone. We use a quarterly data set covering the period 2002-2012 and estimate the direct and indirect effects of macroeconomic imbalances in the pre- and post-crisis period in a simultaneous equations model. Business cycle correlation between EA members is measured by the recently proposed dynamic conditional correlation of Engle 2002 which can better identify synchronous and asynchronous behaviour of BC than the commonly used measures. We find that appearing differences between EA members in the current account, in government deficit and public debt, in private debt and unit labor cost developments have reduced BCS in the EA, even more in the post-crisis period than before. Moreover, these explanatory factors of BCS, generally reinforce each other and are also influenced by other critical macro imbalances. Since BCS is essential in a monetary union, this paper provides clear support that a stronger, common economic governance would be important for the functioning and survival of the Eurozone. |
| Keywords: | Business cycle synchronization, Macroeconomic imbalances, Monetary union, Euro Area, Simultaneous equations model, Panel data |
| JEL: | E32 E60 E61 F45 C33 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp229&r=net |
| By: | Tanya Byker; Italo Gutierrez |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the impact of a female sterilization campaign in Peru in the 1990s using a propensity score reweighting (PSR) method that accounts for a contaminated treatment group problem: while we observe sterilizations, we do not know which sterilizations were part of the campaign and which would have occurred in the absence of a campaign. Using our PSR method, we estimate that women sterilized as part of the campaign had on average 1.2 fewer children by 2004. In contrast, women sterilized outside the campaign had 0.6 fewer children by 2004. We also estimate impacts of the campaign on other household outcomes. |
| Keywords: | female sterilization, fertility, family planning, contaminated data models, propensity scores |
| JEL: | C21 J13 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1118&r=net |
| By: | Covi, Giovanni; Eydam, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the relationship between the default risk of banks and sovereigns, i.e. the 'doom-loop'. Specifically we try to assess the effectiveness of the implementation of the new recovery and resolution framework. We use a panel with daily data on European banks and sovereigns ranging from 2008 to 2016. We find that there was a pronounced feedback loop between banks and sovereigns from 2008 to 2014. However, this feedback loop seems to have disappeared after the implementation of the new regulatory framework. This finding is robust across several specifications. |
| Keywords: | Financial Stability,Sovereign Bailout,Doom Loop,Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive,European Banking Union |
| JEL: | E58 G01 G18 L51 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:468&r=net |
| By: | Nuguer Victoria; Cuadra Gabriel |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-country DSGE model with global banks to analyze the role of cross-border banking flows on the transmission of a quality of capital shock in the United States to emerging market economies (EMEs). Banks face a moral hazard problem for borrowing from households. EME's banks might be risky: they can also be constrained to borrow from U.S. banks. A negative quality of capital shock in the United States generates a global financial crisis. EME's macroprudential policy that targets non-core liabilities makes the domestic economy resilient to the volatility of cross-border banking flows and makes EME's households better-off. |
| Keywords: | Global banking; emerging market economies; financial frictions; macroprudential policy. |
| JEL: | G28 E44 F42 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-06&r=net |
| By: | Sosso FEINDOUNO (Ferdi); Michaël GOUJON (Université d'Auvergne); Laurent WAGNER (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | We have created a new index, the Internal Violence Index (IVI), which aims to compare the amount of violence at the country level for 130 developing countries. The IVI is a composite indicator composed of four clusters - internal armed conflict, criminality, terrorism, and political violence. It is based on quantitative variables only, in contrast to the existing subjective indicators of fragility. |
| Keywords: | Internally displaced people, Terrorism, Criminality, Conflict, Fragility |
| JEL: | F5 C82 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2887&r=net |
| By: | Sosso FEINDOUNO (Ferdi); Michaël GOUJON (University of Auvergne); Laurent WAGNER (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | We have created a new index, the Internal Violence Index (IVI), which aims to compare the amount of violence at the country level for 130 developing countries. The IVI is a composite indicator composed of four clusters - internal armed conflict, criminality, terrorism, and political violence. It is based on quantitative variables only, in contrast to the existing subjective indicators of fragility. |
| Keywords: | Internally displaced people, Terrorism, Criminality, Conflict, Fragility |
| JEL: | F5 C82 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2888&r=net |
| By: | Marco Di Maggio; Marcin Kacperczyk |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of the zero lower bound interest rate policy on the industrial organization of the U.S. money fund industry. We find that in response to policies that maintain low interest rates, money funds: change their product offerings by investing in riskier asset classes; are more likely to exit the market; and reduce the fees they charge their investors. The consequence of fund closures resulting from interest rate policy is the relocation of resources in affected fund families and in the asset management industry in general, as well as decline in capital of issuers borrowing from money funds. |
| JEL: | E52 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22351&r=net |
| By: | Popov, Alexander; Laeven, Luc |
| Abstract: | We exploit regional variation in US house price fluctuations during the boom-bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young Americans' choices related to education and employment. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce, lowering skill formation. During the bust years, the young, especially those without higher education, were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices. JEL Classification: E32, G21, J10, R21 |
| Keywords: | booms, education, house prices, unemployment |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161892&r=net |
| By: | Alfonso Ugarte |
| Abstract: | We investigate the idea that when we separate an explanatory variable into its “between†and “within†variations we could be roughly decomposing it into a structural (long-term) and a cyclical component respectively, and this could translate into different Between and Within estimates in panel data. |
| Keywords: | Global , Research , Working Paper |
| JEL: | C01 C18 C23 C33 C51 C58 G20 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1610&r=net |
| By: | Laurence Levin; Matthew S. Lewis; Frank A. Wolak |
| Abstract: | Daily city-level expenditures and prices are used to estimate the price responsiveness of gasoline demand in the U.S. Using a frequency of purchase model that explicitly acknowledges the distinction between gasoline demand and gasoline expenditures, we consistently find the price elasticity of demand to be an order of magnitude larger than estimates from recent studies using more aggregated data. We demonstrate directly that higher levels of spatial and temporal aggregation generate increasingly inelastic demand estimates, and then perform a decomposition to examine the relative importance of several different sources of bias likely to arise in more aggregated studies. |
| JEL: | L91 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22345&r=net |
| By: | Matteo Maggiori; Xavier Gabaix |
| Abstract: | We provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such alterations to their balance sheets cause financiers to change their required compensation for holding currency risk, thus impacting both the level and volatility of exchange rates. Our theory of exchange rate determination in imperfect financial markets not only helps rationalize the empirical disconnect between exchange rates and traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, but also has real consequences for output and risk sharing. Exchange rates are sensitive to imbalances in financial markets and seldom perform the shock absorption role that is central to traditional theoretical macroeconomic analysis. Our framework is flexible; it accommodates a number of important modeling features within an imperfect financial market model, such as non-tradables, production, money, sticky prices or wages, various forms of international pricing-to-market, and unemployment. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:181761&r=net |
| By: | Carlos Rodríguez Crespo (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI). Universidad Complutense de Madrid.); Javier Ramos Díaz (Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI). Universidad Complutense de Madrid.) |
| Abstract: | Nuestro propósito en este working paper es presentar las principales conclusiones que se derivan de la posición de los agentes en relación con la reciente introducción en el ámbito de las políticas públicas españolas de dos instrumentos que pretenden corregir el desempleo juvenil en España: el sistema de Garantía Juvenil y la Formación Profesional Dual. Es el resultado de un proyecto, financiado por la Comisión Europea, inscrito en el programa COMM/MAD/2014/02. ref. ES44, que ha permitido celebrar dos workshop con expertos procedentes del ámbito académico, de las Administraciones Públicas y de los agentes sociales, para evaluar inicialmente la implantación de ambos instrumentos en España. La estructura del trabajo es la siguiente. Inicialmente, será presentada evidencia empírica del problema del desempleo juvenil y del colectivo NEET en la UE y España. A continuación, se compendiarán con brevedad las principales iniciativas comunitarias y su transposición al caso español. Posteriormente, serán sintetizados los discursos de los agentes sobre los problemas suscitados en la implantación del sistema de garantía juvenil. A continuación extractaremos la posición de los agentes sobre la formación profesional dual, para analizarlos, como en el caso anterior. Finalmente, serán presentadas las conclusiones de este trabajo. |
| Keywords: | Empleo juvenil; Garantía juvenil; Formación profesional dual. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucm:wpaper:01-16&r=net |
| By: | Basurto, Saul |
| Abstract: | This paper examines two speci cations of the Ricardian Hedonic Model (RHM) in order to identify divergences between implicit values of land attributes. The main goal of this research is to compare these values obtained from ex-ante and ex-post indicators of land productivity. To the best of our knowledge, there is no similar work on the existing literature. Our argument is that these values di er due to the former depends upon farmers' expectations formed at the beginning of the crop year while actual prices and annual weather determine the later. We combine information on 2,524 farms in Mexico with climate normals, soil types, and a set of controls, using Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. The main ndings indicate that these values globally di er. Moreover, most of the signi cant coecients are individually di erent across both equations. According to the rental price model, the annual implicit value of an extra degree Celsius is $130 Mexican pesos (2.03% of the average rental price) and $154 (2.38%) of an additional mm. of rainfall. However, exploring the results from the net revenues speci cation, an extra oC modi es the net revenue by $-518 (-8.89%) and $351 (6.03%) an additional mm. of rainfall. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, agriculture, Hedonic, Ricardian, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Q510, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236362&r=net |
| By: | Roman Frydman (New York University); Joshua R. Stillwagon (Trinity College) |
| Abstract: | Behavioral finance views stock-market investors’ expectations as largely unrelated to fundamental factors. Relying on survey data, this paper presents econometric evidence that fundamentals are a major driver of investors’ expectations. Although expectations are also in part extrapolative, this effect is transient. The paper’s approach underscores the central importance of opening models to structural change and imposing discipline on econometric analysis through specification testing. Our findings support the novel hypothesis that rational market participants, faced with unforeseeable change, base their forecasts on both fundamentals - the focus of the REH approach - and the psychological and technical considerations underlying behavioral finance. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral finance, REH, Knightian uncertainty, survey expectations, structural change, model specification, automated model selection. |
| JEL: | G12 G14 G02 C22 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:44&r=net |
| By: | Pere Gomis-Porqueras (Deakin University); Benoit Julien (UNSW Australia); Liang Wang (University of Hawaii Manoa) |
| Abstract: | We consider a frictional market where buyers are uncoordinated and sellers cannot commit ex-ante to either a per-unit price or quantity of a divisible good. Sellers then can exploit their local monopoly power by adjusting prices or quantities once the local demand is realized. We find that when sellers can adjust quantities ex-post, there exists a unique symmetric equilibrium where the increase in the buyer-seller ratio leads to higher quantities and prices in equilibrium. When sellers post ex-ante quantities and adjust prices ex-post, a symmetric equilibrium does not exist. |
| Keywords: | Competitive Search, Price Posting, Quantity Posting |
| JEL: | D40 L10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201607&r=net |
| By: | Schlepper, Kathi |
| Abstract: | In this work, I study the impact of high-frequency trading (HFT) on price discovery and volatility in the Bund futures market. Using a new dataset based on microseconds, the focus of the study is on the reaction of high-frequency traders (HFTs) to major macroeconomic news events. I show that through their fast and strong reaction to news, HFTs contribute more to price discovery compared to Non-HFTs, but also add a higher share to noise than to permanent volatility. Moreover, I find evidence that HFTs tend to supply less liquidity after an unexpected rise in market volatility and prior to upcoming macroeconomic news events. These findings suggest that in times of high market stress, HFT behavior may exacerbate intraday price volatility and amplify the risk of market disruptions in fixed income markets. |
| Keywords: | High-Frequency Trading,Price Discovery,Volatility |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:152016&r=net |
| By: | Juan David Rojas; Sebastián Higuera |
| Abstract: | En el presente trabajo se busca estudiar los efectos de los flujos de capitales internacionales sobre la economía colombiana para el periodo 2001 - 2015. Para ello se estimó un modelo de vectores autorregresivos estructural SVARX, con datos trimestrales sobre el Índice de Seguimiento a la Economía y los flujos brutos de capitales, utilizando un conjunto de variables exógenas que determinan parte de la dinámica de ambas variables. A partir de un análisis de impulso–respuesta y descomposición de varianza se encontró que existe una relación directa positiva entre los flujos de capitales y el crecimiento económico a corto y mediano plazo en Colombia. También se encontró una mayor persistencia en el efecto de los choques asociados al crecimiento de los flujos de capitales sobre el crecimiento económico, respecto a sus propios choques. |
| Keywords: | Flujos de Capitales, Crecimiento Económico, Vectores Autorregresivos. |
| JEL: | F32 F43 C22 C30 |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000176:014636&r=net |
| By: | Holopainen, Markus; Sarlin, Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper presents first steps toward robust models for crisis prediction. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods as early-warning models. As individual models are in the literature most often built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high relevance for assessing the relative performance of a wide variety of methods. Further, we test various ensemble approaches to aggregating the information products of the built models, providing a more robust basis for measuring country-level vulnerabilities. Finally, we provide approaches to estimating model uncertainty in early-warning exercises, particularly model performance uncertainty and model output uncertainty. The approaches put forward in this paper are shown with Europe as a playground. Generally, our results show that the conventional statistical approaches are outperformed by more advanced machine learning methods, such as k-nearest neighbors and neural networks, and particularly by model aggregation approaches through ensemble learning. JEL Classification: E44, F30, G01, G15, C43 |
| Keywords: | early-warning models, ensembles, financial stability, horse race, model uncertainty |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161900&r=net |
| By: | Denis Fougere (Observatoire sociologique du changement); Erwan Gautier (Université de Nantes); Sébastien Roux (INSEE Paris) |
| Abstract: | Cet article est une étude empirique portant sur les ajustements des salaires minima de branche en France et sur leur interaction possible avec les hausses du SMIC (salaire minimum interprofessionnel de croissance). Nous avons construit pour cette étude une base de données contenant près de 48 000 salaires minima de branche associés à des postes spécifiques dans plus de 340 branches sur la période 2006-2014. Nous obtenons que le SMIC a un effet significatif sur la saisonnalité et le calendrier des négociations de branche. L’inflation, les hausses de salaire dans la branche et les hausses de SMIC (en termes réels) sont les principaux déterminants des hausses des minima de branche et les élasticités des minima de branche par rapport à ces variables sont respectivement de 0.6, 0.3 et 0.25. Les élasticités des minima de branches par rapport à l’inflation ou au SMIC diminuent le long de la distribution des minimas mais restent positives pour tous les niveaux de minima. |
| Keywords: | salaire minimum; négociations collectives; salaires; minimum wage; collective bargaining; wages |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3mjt8d63i195voq228mf1sr91q&r=net |
| By: | Jiri Schwarz (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Martin Stepanek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper utilizes a data set of over 208,000 U.S. patents applied for between 1975 and 2010 to study development of strategic patenting over time and across industries. With received citations as a measure of patent social value, we use data envelopment analysis to estimate firm-level relative importance of strategic versus protective patenting. Our novel identification strategy reveals there was an almost universal drop in patent social value in the second half of the 1990s, signaling a shift towards the strategic use of patents. But the development of patenting strategies continued even after 2000 with semiconductor companies increasing their focus on patent value relative to companies from other industries. On average, aerospace and software companies preferred the production of valuable patents, but patenting strategies can differ vastly even among companies operating within one industry. The results confirm our expectations regarding the focus of aerospace companies on socially valuable patents. |
| Keywords: | Patents, patent value, strategic patenting, intellectual property rights |
| JEL: | D23 K11 O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_08&r=net |
| By: | McEachin, Andrew; Atteberry, Allison |
| Abstract: | State and federal accountability policies are predicated on the ability to estimate valid and reliable measures of school impacts on student learning. The typical spring- to-spring testing window potentially conflates the amount of learning that occurs during the school-year with learning that occurs during the summer. We use a unique dataset to explore the potential for students’ summer learning to bias school-level value-added models used in accountability policies and research on school quality. The results of this paper raise important questions about the design of performance-based education policies, as well as schools’ role in the production of students’ achievement. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1149&r=net |
| By: | Girum Abebe; Biruk Tekle; Yukichi Mano |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, savings is an important financial tool, particularly for micro-business with limited access to credit. However, micro-entrepreneurs often undersave, even when they have some surplus and the desire to save maybe because of knowledge gap and behavioral biases. To test the importance of these saving constraints, we offered four-hour financial literacy training and periodic SMS reminders for three months to randomly selected group of micro-entrepreneurs in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.. While financial literacy training alone seemed ineffective, we find that reminders and joint treatment encouraged better saving behavior. Our results confirm earlier findings that savings can be limited by attention, whereas how entrepreneurs manage savings depends on their levels of financial literacy. |
| Keywords: | savings; reminders; financial training; entrepreneurs |
| JEL: | D92 E21 L26 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2016-08&r=net |
| By: | Nathan Chappell (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Isabelle Sin (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | An amendment to legislation in 2009 enabled New Zealand firms with fewer than 20 employees to hire new workers on trial periods. The scheme was subsequently extended to employers of all sizes. The policy was intended to encourage firms to take on more employees, and particularly more disadvantaged job seekers, by reducing the risk associated with hiring an unknown worker. We use unit record linked employer-employee data and the staggered introduction of the policy for firms of different sizes to assess the policy effect on firm hiring behaviour. We find no evidence that the policy affected the number of hires by firms on average, either overall or into employment that lasted beyond the trial period. We also do not find an effect on hiring of disadvantaged jobseekers. However, our results suggest that the policy increased hiring in industries with high use of trial periods by 10.3 percent. |
| Keywords: | 90-day trials, employment, labour market flexibility, firm hiring |
| JEL: | J08 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:16_10&r=net |
| By: | Giovanna Mascheroni; Jane Vincent |
| Abstract: | This paper draws on qualitative data collected as a part of a comparative study on children and teenagers’ uses of smartphones in nine European countries to explore the meanings and emotions associated with the enhanced possibility of “full-time” contact with peers provided by smartphones. It argues that full-time access to peers—which interviewees identify as the main consequence of smartphones and instant messaging apps on their interactions with friends—is a communicative affordance, that is, a set of socially constructed opportunities and constraints that frame possibilities of action by giving rise to a diversity of communicative practices, as well as contradictory feelings among young people: intimacy, proximity, security as well as anxiety, exclusion and obligation. Understanding the perceptions and emotions around the affordance of “anywhere, anytime” accessibility, therefore, helps in untangling how communicative affordances are individually perceived but also, and more importantly, socially appropriated, negotiated, legitimised, and institutionalised. |
| Keywords: | children and young people; communicative affordances; emotions; perpetual contact; smartphones |
| JEL: | L91 L96 |
| Date: | 2016–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66938&r=net |
| By: | Pierre-Richard Agénor |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the growth and welfare effects of macroprudential regulation in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth with banking and agency costs. Indivisible investment projects combine with informational imperfections to create a double moral hazard problem à la Holmström-Tirole and a role for bank monitoring. When the optimal monitoring intensity is endogenously determined, an increase in the reserve requirement rate (motivated by systemic risk considerations) has conflicting effects on investment and growth. The trade-off between ensuring financial stability and promoting economic growth can be internalized by choosing the reserve requirement rate that maximizes growth and welfare. However, the risk of disintermediation means that financial supervision may also need to be strengthened, and the perimeter of regulation broadened, if the optimal required reserve ratio is too high. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:cgbcrp:218&r=net |
| By: | Gromov, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Malinina, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper concerns the international and Russian practice of taxation of income from trusts. The proposals on the change of approach for taxation of such income according to the applicable law are formulated. |
| Keywords: | taxation of income, trusts |
| Date: | 2016–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:3131&r=net |
| By: | Libo Xu (University of Calgary); Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the ongoing literature on regime change. The extension allows time variation in disturbance variances of interest rate rules for monetary policy and tax rules for Â…fiscal policy that switch stochastically between two regimes. We achieve superior modelings of monetary and Â…fiscal policy rules with quarterly U.S. data. |
| Date: | 2016–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clg:wpaper:2016-34&r=net |
| By: | Monika Hadas-Dyduch (University of Economics in Katowice) |
| Abstract: | The aim of the article is to present the author's model for prediction of the minimum wage. The model is based on wavelet analysis and methods of adaptation. Use of multiresolution analysis for prediction of the minimum wage in combination with the method to compensate the exponential gave good results in terms of minimizing the error. Research the minimum wage is very important. It should be noted that, in 2014, the level of gross minimum wages across the EU Member States varied from 33 % to just over 50 % of average gross monthly earnings for those persons working in industry, construction or services. |
| Keywords: | wavelets, prediction, salary, minimum wage. |
| JEL: | C5 F3 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2016:no29&r=net |
| By: | Hussein, Mohamud; Fraser, Iain; Costanigro, Marco |
| Abstract: | We estimate the implicit prices consumers are willing to pay for country of origin labels, using hedonic price models and panel data on retail meat purchases in the United Kingdom (UK). We find that consumers place a significant value on the origin information, especially since the horsemeat incident in 2013. Both the horsemeat incident and resulting consumer response raise questions about the balance between mandatory and voluntary labelling. There is also the potential for unintended consequences for meat industry competitiveness and trade, which may affect consumer welfare negatively. |
| Keywords: | Consumer Preference, Hedonic Price, Meat, Origin Labelling, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, D120 Consumer Economics, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236353&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report presents the findings and conclusions of a short peer review of road safety policy in Korea. This was centred on a meeting of road safety experts from Korea and from OECD countries held in Seoul in December 2014. The objective was to address the challenge of how to move Korea from its current position as one of the worst performers among the OECD countries in the annual number of road fatalities to being one of the best, in line with the targets set under the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:23-en&r=net |
| By: | Aomar Ibourk |
| Abstract: | L’écart entre filles et garçons en termes de scolarisation, au Maroc, a longtemps préoccupé tant les académiciens que les décideurs. En revanche, très peu d’études se sont penchées sur l’analyse de cet écart sous une toile de fond quantitative. Ce présent travail s’intéresse à l’écart genre en termes d’acquis scolaires en lecture. La finalité étant de mettre en exergue les facteurs influençant les différences de performance entre les genres ainsi que leur ampleur. Pour ce faire, une étude micro-économétrique est menée en se basant sur l’enquête PIRLS 2011. En effet, la décomposition de Blinder-Oaxaca est conduite en vue de décomposer les différences de performance en incluant des variables explicatives touchant aussi bien à l’école qu’aux caractéristiques de l’élève. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:rp-16/06&r=net |
| By: | Jingting Fan; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan |
| Abstract: | One of the explanations for global imbalances is the self-financing behavior of credit-constrained firms in rapidly growing emerging markets. We use an extensive firm-level data set from several Asian countries during 2002–2011, and test the micro foundation of this theory by estimating the effect of an exogenous change in credit constraints, resulting from financial reforms, on firms’ saving behavior. As predicted, after financial reforms, firms who were credit-constrained previously decreased their savings more (or increased their savings less) relative to unconstrained firms. However, this firm-level effect did not lead to a decrease in aggregate corporate savings as conjectured by the theory. Our sector level regressions show that corporate savings increased after financial reforms, and more so for sectors more dependent on external finance. The current account surpluses also did not register a significant deterioration after financial reforms, consistent with our findings on sectoral and aggregate corporate savings |
| JEL: | E0 F0 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22334&r=net |
| By: | Calvet , Laurent E; Bach , Laurent; Sodini, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the portfolios of wealthy households and their implications for the dynamics of inequality. Using an administrative panel of all Swedish residents, we document that returns on financial wealth are on average 4% higher per year for households in the top 1% compared to the median household. These high average returns are primarily compensations for high levels of systematic risk. Abnormal risk-adjusted returns, linked for instance to informational advantages or exceptional investment skill, contribute only marginally to the high returns of the wealthy. Implications for inequality dynamics and public policy are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Household finance; inequality; risk-taking |
| JEL: | D12 D31 |
| Date: | 2015–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1126&r=net |
| By: | Takashi Kamihigashi (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan) |
| Abstract: | We establish a simple no-bubble theorem that applies to a wide range of deterministic sequential economies with infinitely lived agents. In particular, we show that asset bubbles never arise if at least one agent can reduce his asset holdings permanently from some period onward. Our no-bubble theorem is based on the optimal behavior of a single agent, requiring virtually no assumption beyond the strict monotonicity of preferences. The theorem is a substantial generalization of Kocherlakota's (1992, Journal of Economic Theory 57, 245-256) result on asset bubbles and short sales constraints. |
| Keywords: | Asset bubbles, No-bubble theorem, Sequential budget constraints, Optimality, Binary relation |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2016-22&r=net |
| By: | Timothy B. Armstrong (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Michal Kolesár (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of constructing honest confidence intervals (CIs) for a scalar parameter of interest, such as the regression discontinuity parameter, in nonparametric regression based on kernel or local polynomial estimators. To ensure that our CIs are honest, we derive and tabulate novel critical values that take into account the possible bias of the estimator upon which the CIs are based. We give sharp efficiency bounds of using different kernels, and derive the optimal bandwidth for constructing honest CIs. We show that using the bandwidth that minimizes the maximum mean-squared error results in CIs that are nearly efficient and that in this case, the critical value depends only on the rate of convergence. For the common case in which the rate of convergence is n^{-4/5}, the appropriate critical value for 95% CIs is 2.18, rather than the usual 1.96 critical value. We illustrate our results in an empirical application. |
| Keywords: | Nonparametric inference, relative efficiency |
| JEL: | C12 C14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2044&r=net |
| By: | Paul Gretton (EABER) |
| Abstract: | Effective economic reform agendas provide a means for promoting national economic growth, raising living standards and adapting to changes in trading conditions, new technologies and ways of working. Taking as a focus the Australia-China economic relationship, the GTAP model of the global economy is used to project the implications for Australia and China of preferential, unilateral and broader approaches to trade liberalisation, a broad agenda for reform across the services sector and financial market reform. The simulations show that reform strategies based on non-discriminatory trade liberalization and broadly-based concerted domestic reforms are likely to deliver substantive economic benefits and contribute to growth. Agendas that are restrictive, either through preferential deals between trading partners or through a narrow sectoral focus domestically are likely to constrain gains below levels that would otherwise be attainable. |
| JEL: | F1 F3 F4 O4 O5 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:govern:25630&r=net |
| By: | Paul Gretton (EABER) |
| Abstract: | Effective economic reform agendas provide a means for promoting national economic growth, raising living standards and adapting to changes in trading conditions, new technologies and ways of working. Taking as a focus the Australia-China economic relationship, the GTAP model of the global economy is used to project the implications for Australia and China of preferential, unilateral and broader approaches to trade liberalisation, a broad agenda for reform across the services sector and financial market reform. The simulations show that reform strategies based on non-discriminatory trade liberalization and broadly-based concerted domestic reforms are likely to deliver substantive economic benefits and contribute to growth. Agendas that are restrictive, either through preferential deals between trading partners or through a narrow sectoral focus domestically are likely to constrain gains below levels that would otherwise be attainable. |
| JEL: | F1 F3 F4 O4 O5 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:wpaper:25630&r=net |
| By: | Matteo Smerlak; Bapu Vaitla |
| Abstract: | Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events ("shocks"), is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental, and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here we introduce a general framework for quantifying resilience based on a simple definition: a unit is resilient if $(a)$ its long-term food security trend is not deteriorating and $(b)$ the effects of shocks on this trend do not persist over time. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data is available, can accommodate any unit of analysis (e.g., individuals, households, countries), and is especially useful in rapidly changing contexts wherein standard equilibrium-based economic models are ineffective. We illustrate our method with an analysis of per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programs will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.02783&r=net |
| By: | Lorena Zardo Trindade; Tim Goedemé |
| Abstract: | Indicators based on EU-SILC should be accompanied by appropriate standard errors, and in order to do so, it is necessary to consider the sample design. Because important sample design variables are missing in the EU-SILC User Database (UDB), the aim of this note is to explain the update of EU-SILC UDB sample design variables for 2012 (version 4), 2013 (version 3) and 2014 (version 1), based on the methodology developed by Goedemé (2010b, 2013a). Although several of the challenges for reconstructing the EU-SILC sample design variables are identical for all releases of the data, the update required minor adjustments in the computation of the new sample design variables psu1 and strata1. The effect of the use of the new sample design variables on standard errors is observed for ‘At risk of poverty’ and ‘Material deprivation’, for which SE values are found to be larger when the sample design variables are considered. |
| Keywords: | EU-SILC, sample design, sampling variance, Standard error |
| JEL: | D31 O52 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:1602&r=net |
| By: | Tommaso Ferraresi (Università degli Studi di Firenze [Firenze]); Andrea Roventini (Laboratory of Economics and Management (Pisa) (LEM)); Willi Semmler (New School for Social Research) |
| Abstract: | In this work we investigate the interrelations among technology, output and employment in the different states of the U.S. economy (recessions vs. expansions). More precisely, we estimate different threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) models with TFP, hours, and GDP, employing the latter as threshold variable, and we assess the ensuing generalized impulse responses of GDP and hours as to TFP shocks. We find that positive productivity shocks, while spurring GDP growth, display a negative effect on hours worked at least on impact, independently of the state of the economy. In the 1957-2011 period, the effects of productivity shocks on employment are abundantly negative in downturns, but they are not significantly different from zero in good times. However, the impact of TFP shocks in different business cycle regimes depends on the chosen sample: after the mid eighties (1984-2011), productivity shocks increase hours during recessions. Finally, we express and test some conjectures that might have caused the changes in the responses in different time periods. |
| Keywords: | Technology shocks; Employment; Threshold vector autoregression; Generalized impulse response functions |
| JEL: | E32 O33 C32 E63 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra&r=net |
| By: | Fan, Jingting; Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem |
| Abstract: | One of the explanations for global imbalances is the self-financing behavior of credit-constrained firms in rapidly growing emerging markets. We use an extensive firm-level data set from several Asian countries during 2002-2011, and test the micro foundation of this theory by estimating the effect of an exogenous change in credit constraints, resulting from financial reforms, on firms' saving behavior. As predicted, after financial reforms, firms who were credit-constrained previously decreased their savings more (or increased their savings less) relative to unconstrained firms. However, this firm-level effect did not lead to a decrease in aggregate corporate savings as conjectured by the theory. Our sector level regressions show that corporate savings increased after financial reforms, and more so for sectors more dependent on external finance. The current account surpluses also did not register a significant deterioration after financial reforms, consistent with our findings on sectoral and aggregate corporate savings. |
| JEL: | D24 E22 F41 O16 O47 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11314&r=net |
| By: | Søren Johansen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); Bent Nielsen (Department of Economics, Nuffield College) |
| Abstract: | We show tightness of a general M-estimator for multiple linear regression in time series. The positive criterion function for the M-estimator is assumed lower semi-continuous and sufficiently large for large argument: Particular cases are the Huber-skip and quantile regression. Tightness requires an assumption on the frequency of small regressors. We show that this is satis?ed for a variety of deterministic and stochastic regressors, including stationary an random walks regressors. The results are obtained using a detailed analysis of the condition on the regressors combined with some recent martingale results. |
| Keywords: | M-estimator, robust statistics, martingales, Huber-skip, quantile estimation. |
| Date: | 2016–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1605&r=net |
| By: | Nicholas Bloom; Ali Choudhary; Renata Lemos; John Van Reenen |
| Abstract: | For more than a decade, CEP economists have been leading efforts to get measures of management incorporated into the statistical infrastructure used by governments and researchers. The authors report on the latest initiative, assessing the use of performance monitoring, targets and incentives in firms in Pakistan. |
| Keywords: | Firms, Pakistan, management, productivity |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:475&r=net |
| By: | Jeon, Bang (School of Economics Drexel University); Wu, Ji (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics); Chen, Minghua (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics); Wang, Rui (Southwestern University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the impact of foreign ownership on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Using bank-level panel data of more than 1,300 commercial banks in 32 emerging economies during 2000-2013, we find that foreign owned banks take on more risk than their domestic counterparts. We further examine several factors that may potentially contribute to foreign banks’ differentiated riskiness from four perspectives, namely, foreign banks’ informational disadvantages, agency problems, the contagious effect of parent banks’ financial conditions and the disparity between home and host markets. We find supportive evidence that these factors play a significant role in affecting foreign banks’ risk-taking. |
| Keywords: | Foreign banks; Bank risk-taking; Emerging economies |
| JEL: | F65 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–05–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2016_004&r=net |
| By: | María Teresa à lvarez-Martínez (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Montserrat López-Cobo (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the construction process of a new set of national social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the EU-27 in 2010 that will be regionalized and used in RHOMOLO, the regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model developed by the European Commission to evaluate the impact of cohesion policies. After a careful analysis of the input-output frameworks available in Eurostat and the World input-output database (WIOD), the latter has been used as the main data source, which is completed with information from national accounts in Eurostat. The structure of the SAM is determined by the sectoral disaggregation in WIOD. It includes a useful disaggregation of labour by skill levels and a disaggregation of the foreign sector in the EU and rest of the world. In the paper it is clearly described how to elaborate a symmetric input-output table product by product at purchasers' prices using supply and use tables and applying the industry technology. It is also described the reallocation of social contributions needed to properly assign tax revenues to government and avoid the problems generated by the second redistribution of income in national accounts. The description of the SAMs and their availability for the EU-27 can be very useful to researchers in applied economics and it may help to better understand the structure of RHOMOLO. |
| Keywords: | social accounting matrices, national accounts, EU-27 |
| JEL: | D57 E16 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc101673&r=net |
| By: | Ahmet Sensoy; Benjamin M. Tabak |
| Abstract: | We use generalized Hurst exponents to investigate long-range dependence across countries that have implemented an in ation targeting monetary policy regime and have a oating currency regime. We show that the degree of long-range dependence has changed after the 2008 crisis for equity markets but not as much for exchange rate markets. We compare results for developed and emerging economies and find that there still are some important differences but not as they were before the crisis. We also include an additional set of relevant countries and nd that our results are more pronounced for in ation targeters. We discuss several implications of these results. |
| Keywords: | Hurst exponent, market eciency, exchange rate, stock market, emerging markets, developed markets |
| JEL: | C65 F31 G01 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bor:wpaper:1632&r=net |
| By: | Carol Newman; John Rand; Finn Tarp; Neda Trifkovic |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between the corporate social responsibility practices of local domestic firms and their engagement with foreign markets using four waves of panel data on a sample of more than 4,500 manufacturing firms from Viet Nam. We develop a measure of corporate social responsibility that combines compliance with labour standards, management commitment to corporate social responsibility, and community activities. We find a strong relationship between engagement in international markets and the corporate social responsibility activities of firms, with the exception of trade with China. Results suggest that firms in exportintensive sectors engage in more corporate social responsibility activities, while those in sectors with higher levels of imports engage in less. Length: 22 pages |
| Keywords: | corporate social responsibility, trade, spillovers, Viet Nam |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-068&r=net |
| By: | Bramucci, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the debate on the economic effect of the international fragmentation of production, also known as "offshoring", and provides a preliminary investigation of the impact of intermediate imported inputs on employment and wages in five European countries (Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the United Kingdom). Data are obtained from the Sectoral Innovation Database (SID) of the University of Urbino, a large database that merges statistical material from various sources (LFS; CIS; WIOD). The first part of this work provides a review of the empirical literature that discusses the economic effects of offshoring on domestic labor demand and wages. The second section of the paper presents offshoring trends and discusses the results of the econometric analysis. Results suggest that offshoring has a general negative impact on employment and wages although more careful examination reveals that high-tech offshoring has a positive effect on wages of medium- and high-skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Offshoring,Innovation,Employment,Wages |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:712016&r=net |
| By: | Pinar Yesin |
| Abstract: | The Swiss franc is known to appreciate strongly during financial market turmoil, demonstrating its status as a typical safe haven currency. One possible mechanism behind this appreciation during times of global turmoil is assumed to be higher capital inflows to Switzerland. This paper attempts to find some empirical evidence for this presumption. The analysis reveals that capital flow variables are not necessarily coincident with the movements of the Swiss franc. Interest rate differentials, a traditional determinant of exchange rates, co-move only weakly with Swiss franc movements. However, a robust and stronger link between variables that capture global or regional market uncertainty and movements of the Swiss franc is observed. Specifically, the information channel rather than new cross-border investment is found to be coincident with the Swiss franc. The weak link between capital flows and the exchange rate is confirmed to some extent for some other countries. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate, safe haven currency, gross capital flows, net flows, private flows |
| JEL: | F21 F31 F32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2016-08&r=net |
| By: | Nielsen, Caren Yinxia (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | To address banks’ risk taking during the recent financial crisis, we develop a model of credit-portfolio optimization and study the impact of risk-based capital regulation (Basel Accords) on banks’ asset allocations. The model shows that, when a bank’s capital is constrained by regulation, regulatory cost (risk weightings in the Basel Accords) alters the risk and value calculations for the bank’s assets. The model predicts that the effect of a tightening of the capital requirements – for banks for which these requirements are (will become) binding – will be to skew the risky portfolio towards high-risk, high-earning assets (low-risk, low-earning assets), provided that the asset valuation – i.e., reward-to-regulatory-cost ratio – of the high-risk asset is higher than that of the low-risk asset. Empirical examination of U.S. banks supports the predictions applicable to the dataset. In addition, our tests show the characteristics of banks with different levels of risk taking. In particular, the core banks that use the internal ratings-based approach under Basel II invest more in high-risk assets. |
| Keywords: | Banks; asset risk; credit risk; portfolio choice; risk-based capital regulation |
| JEL: | G11 G18 G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_009&r=net |
| By: | Guimarães Barbosa, Evaldo |
| Abstract: | This article claims that the basic relationships between, on the one side, size, growth and age of the small firm and, on the other side, the small firm’s hazard of exit is, apart from the “honeymoon” and the “liability of senescence” effects, non-linear, either U-shaped or inverted U-shaped. Variations from these patterns are dependent upon choices of different specifications and the presence or absence from the multivariate analysis of the real determinants for which size, growth and age of the firm proxy. The article also claims that the quadratic specification that has traditionally been fitted is rarely the most adequate, since other combinations of different pairs of exponents would certainly better capture nuances of the relationships being regressed. The article conclusively claims that these realizations explain findings in the extant literature that are awkward, unexpected, embarrassing and unacceptable and interpretations that are many times even more inapplicable. |
| Keywords: | Small firms; Survival determinants; Size, growth and age; Cox regression |
| JEL: | M21 |
| Date: | 2016–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72111&r=net |
| By: | Broström, Anders (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); McKelvey, Maureen (Institute of Innovation & Entrepreneurship, Department of Economy & Society, School of Business, Economics and Law, University of Gothenburg.) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the conditions for successful knowledge transfer between the spheres of science and public policy. It does so by focusing upon the science-policy interface, specifically the processes of direct interaction between scientists and scientifically trained experts on the one hand and agents of policy-making organizations on the other. The paper defines two dimensions – cognitive distance and expert autonomy – which are argued to influence knowledge exchange, in such a way as to shape the outcome. A case study on the implementation of congestion charges in Stockholm, Sweden illustrates how the proposed framework pinpoints three central issues for understanding these processes: 1) differentiating the roles of e.g. a science-based consultancy firm and an academic environment in policy formation; 2) examining the fit between the organizational form of the science-policy interface and the intended goals; and 3) increasing our understanding of when policy makers themselves need to develop scientific competence in order to interact effectively with scientific experts. |
| Keywords: | organizational learning; science-based policy; evidence-based policy; interaction; cognitive distance; congestion charges |
| JEL: | A14 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0441&r=net |
| By: | Caldara, Dario; Herbst, Edward |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the interaction between monetary policy, financial markets, and the real economy. We develop a Bayesian framework to estimate proxy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) in which monetary policy shocks are identified by exploiting the information contained in high frequency data. For the Great Moderation period, we find that monetary policy shocks are key drivers of fluctuations in industrial output and corporate credit spreads, explaining about 20 percent of the volatility of these variables. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in credit spreads. We show that the failure to account for this endogenous reaction induces an attenuation bias in the response of all variables to monetary shocks. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Inference ; Monetary policy ; Vector Autoregressions |
| JEL: | E52 C3 C5 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-49&r=net |
| By: | Erik Gawel; Sebastian Strunz; Paul Lehmann |
| Abstract: | This paper frames the transition towards clean energies as a sequential process of instrument choice and instrument change. First, regulators decide how to initiate the transition away from fossil energies. Here, support policies for renewable electricity are politically convenient because they face low resistance from fossil energies. interest groups. In the second stage, regulators need to adapt support policies for renewables to challenges arising along the transition pathway.We empirically substantiate our arguments by tracing the development of support policies in Germany. Against the backdrop of this analysis, we point towards small-step policies that could foster the transition process. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy, Management, Renewable energy sources |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-006&r=net |
| By: | Silke Tober |
| Abstract: | The ECB's expansionary monetary policy has positive effects on the euro area economy. Interest rates have declined further, bank lending is improving, and the euro is weaker. However, inflation remains much too low and aggregate demand too weak for the output gap to close rapidly. Further weakening the euro is not a feasible option. A weaker euro would aggravate global imbalances and impact negatively on less-than-robust global growth. Expansionary fiscal policy therefore needs to add to the effects of monetary policy.The euro area, moreover, suffers a key problem that not only impedes monetary policy effectiveness but also constrains fiscal policy and puts the future stability of the euro area at risk: With the decision to give up on the safe-asset quality of euro area sovereign bonds the euro area is losing a fundamental stability anchor. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:report:112e-2016&r=net |
| By: | Hänisch, Carsten; Klos, Jonas |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a micro-simulation study on the long-run effects of career interruptions in Germany, extending earlier work which generally only focuses on the first few years after an interruption. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel, it finds that career interruptions will, for the average individual, have lifelong effects on incomes and labor-force participation. It quantifies these effects for the average affected individual as well as on the entire society and therefore provides additional information on the total cost of career interruptions. |
| Keywords: | micro-simulation,career interruptions,lifetime income |
| JEL: | H55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wgspdp:201603&r=net |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Nield, Kerry (Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | In New York City (NYC), it has been a common complaint that it is difficult to find a taxi in the rain. Using all Uber rides in NYC from April to September 2014 and January to June 2015, we show that the number of Uber rides is significantly correlated with whether it rained. The number of Uber rides per hour is about 25 percent higher when it is raining, suggesting that surge pricing encourages an increase in supply. During the same time period, the number of taxi rides per hour increases by only 4 percent in rainy hours. We then show that the number of taxi rides per hour decreased by approximately 8 percent after Uber entered the New York market in May 2011, confirming that Uber is depressing taxi demand. Last, we test whether the total (Uber plus taxi) number of rides in rainy hours increased since May 2011. Our estimates suggest that the total number of rides increased by approximately 9 percent since Uber entered the market and that it is relatively easier to get a ride in rainy than in non-rainy hours in post-Uber years. |
| Keywords: | rain, Uber, taxi, dynamic pricing |
| JEL: | D01 D03 L92 J22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9986&r=net |
| By: | Byung-Geun Choi; Napat Rujeerapaiboon; Ruiwei Jiang |
| Abstract: | Growth-optimal portfolios are guaranteed to accumulate higher wealth than any other investment strategy in the long run. However, they tend to be risky in the short term. For serially uncorrelated markets, similar portfolios with more robust guarantees have been recently proposed. This paper extends these robust portfolios by accommodating non-zero autocorrelations that may reflect investors' beliefs about market movements. Moreover, we prove that the risk incurred by such autocorrelations can be absorbed by modifying the covariance matrix of asset returns. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.06578&r=net |
| By: | Kazenin, Konstantin Igorevich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The preprint reviews the phenomenon of institutional competition regulators in solving commercial disputes in the two cities of Dagestan - Makhachkala and Khasavyurt. On the basis of field research data shows that some types of business conflicts in these cities are solved with the use of such controls as Islamic law and traditional ("conventional") right. The reasons for this phenomenon and propose recommendations for policy authorities against him. |
| Keywords: | institutional competition regulators, Dagestan, Makhachkala, Khasavyurt |
| Date: | 2016–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:456&r=net |
| By: | Cristian Peñaloza (Universidad Nacional de Colombia [Bogotá]); Laura Palacios (EVS - UMR 5600 Environnement Ville Société - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon, PIESO-ENSMSE - Département Performance Industrielle et Environnementale des Systèmes et des Organisations - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - Institut Mines-Télécom - Institut Henri Fayol); Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (EVS - UMR 5600 Environnement Ville Société - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENSAL - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon, PIESO-ENSMSE - Département Performance Industrielle et Environnementale des Systèmes et des Organisations - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - Institut Mines-Télécom - Institut Henri Fayol) |
| Abstract: | The production and distribution of Bienestarina to the vulnerable population of Colombia is one of the strategies of the "Colombian Institute of Familiar Wellness" (ICBF its acronym in Spanish) to fight malnutrition, especially among children. This article presents a first characterization of the supply chain for this product in Bogotá emphasizing collection and distribution logistics operations and identifying the actors in the chain, the currently applied regulations and the logistical requirements that leading the distribution of this complement to the different types of beneficiaries. |
| Keywords: | Food supply chain,distribution processes,Bienestarina,Instituto Colombiano del Bienestar Familiar |
| Date: | 2016–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:emse-01330719&r=net |
| By: | Renwick, Alan |
| Abstract: | Globally aquaculture is seen as an increasingly important component in the quest to achieve food security in light of such drivers as a decline in capture fisheries, an expanding global population and climatic change. However, it is widely recognised that in many countries poor regulation acts as a major constraint on the development of the sector. This paper, using the Irish oyster industry as an example highlights not only how regulation can be seen as a significant source of risk in itself to aquaculture, but also how it also increases the level of other risks to the successful development of the sector. Mechanisms for increasing the resilience of the sector by dealing with these risks are reviewed and two possible approaches (supporting collaborative action and backing selected producers) to strengthening the structure of the industry are considered. Both approaches are shown to have strengths and weaknesses |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236286&r=net |
| By: | Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Lina Marcela Moyano-Támara; Carlos Alberto Alba-Fajardo |
| Abstract: | En este trabajo se realiza un análisis de la pobreza y las desigualdades existentes en el Pacífico colombiano. Se estudian las razones por las cuales esta región se ha quedado rezagada frente a las demás. Para lo anterior, se lleva a cabo un diagnóstico de la pobreza utilizando cuatro indicadores: Línea de Pobreza; Índice de Necesidades Básicas Insatisfechas; Índice de Pobreza Multidimensional; y Esfuerzo Requerido. De los resultados se infiere que independientemente del indicador empleado, la incidencia de la pobreza en el Pacífico es alta; lo es aún más en Chocó y en los municipios del Cauca. Finalmente, en la búsqueda de un mejor entendimiento de la persistencia de la pobreza, se examinan brevemente aspectos como: capital humano, gasto público y conflicto armado. La evidencia sugiere que la mayoría de municipios de la región se encuentran en una trampa espacial de pobreza. ******ABSTRACT: In this paper we study the incidence of poverty and inequalities in the Pacific Coast of Colombia. The document aims to understand the reasons why this region has been lagging behind others. To this end, we conduct a diagnostic of poverty measures such as: poverty line, Unsatisfied Basic Needs Index, Multidimensional Poverty Index, and effort required to reduce the socioeconomic gaps. The results show that regardless of the indicator used, the region is characterized by a high incidence of poverty, which is more salient in the municipalities of Chocó and Cauca. Finally, to understand why the high incidence of poverty is persistent we discuss the aspects related to human capital, public expenditure and armed conflict. We conclude that a most of the population in the region suffer from a "poverty trap" that refrains them to achieve a higher development. |
| Keywords: | Pacífico, trampas de pobreza, desigualdades, capital humano, economía regional. |
| JEL: | I32 R11 E23 |
| Date: | 2016–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000102:014628&r=net |
| By: | Mike Helal (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Michael Coelli (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies in Economics have found that the idiosyncratic effect of school leaders may be an important factor in improving student outcomes. The specific channels through which principals affect schools are, with minor exceptions, still largely unexplored in this literature. Employing a unique administrative panel data set from the Victorian public school system, we construct estimates of the idiosyncratic effects of principals on student achievement. We do so using fixed effects techniques and turnover of principals across schools to isolate the effect of principals from the effect of schools themselves. More importantly, through annual detailed staff and parent surveys, we investigate several potential mechanisms through which individual principals may affect student outcomes. Classification-I21 |
| Keywords: | Student achievement, school principals, value-added |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2016n18&r=net |
| By: | Halbheer , Daniel; Gerstner , Eitan; Koenigsberg , Oded |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom holds that service failure creates customer misery and reduces firm profitability. This paper challenges this view and shows that occasional service failure can be profitable for the firm when optional protection against the resulting customer misery can be marketed. It also shows that a firm that uses such a protection strategy inflicts a calculated misery on unprotected customers and wastes resources to provide the protection. Despite these inefficiencies, using the protection strategy can lead to market expansion and social welfare gains due to lower prices. |
| Keywords: | Service Failure; Customer Damage; Random Versioning |
| Date: | 2015–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1124&r=net |
| By: | Steven Glazerman; Dallas Dotter |
| Abstract: | This brief summarizes a technical report that describes what DC parents look for when they choose a school for their child. |
| Keywords: | school choice, segregation, lottery, education, district of Columbia, market signals |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:c35ddf08a6084d18baff7aeaa2b9a004&r=net |
| By: | Blyde, Juan |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of analyses show that firms that are engaged in international trade have superior labor capabilities than their counterparts serving only the domestic market. One way to improve labor skills is by training current employees. There is, however, no empirical evidence showing how the exports of a firm respond to training programs. Using firm level data from Chile this study examines the impact of training employees on the firm’s export status. Based on a matching difference-in-differences estimator the results show that training employees can substantially increase the probability of becoming an exporter. Additional results provide details on how the effects differ by labor type, by the intensity of the labor training and whether there are cumulative effects over time. The analysis also sheds light on factors that complement training. All these issues are important to assess under what conditions labor training programs might work best with respect to trade outcomes |
| Keywords: | Exports, training, skills |
| JEL: | F10 F16 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72150&r=net |
| By: | Deryugin, A.N. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Arlashkin. Igor Yurievich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Proka, K.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The review contains the analysis of Russia’s fiscal equalization system. The authors identified the system’s major shortcomings and provided arguments in favor of taking measures for its improvement in order to increase the system’s effectiveness, efficiency and objectiveness. Based on the analysis of the world best practice in the sphere of fiscal equalization as well as by using econometric modeling the authors developed recommendations on calculating budget expenditures index and improving policy in the field of determining the total amount of equalization transfers. |
| Keywords: | fiscal equalization, equalization transfers, distribution |
| Date: | 2016–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2332&r=net |
| By: | Lara Hulsey; Joshua Leftin; Anne Gordon; Claire Smither Wulsin; Nicholas Redel; Allen Schirm; Nicholas Beyler; Sheila Heaviside; Brian Estes; Carole Trippe |
| Abstract: | The Direct Certification with Medicaid (DC-M) demonstration added Medicaid to the list of programs used to directly certify students for free school meals. This report presents findings on the impacts of DC-M during the second year of the demonstration, school year 2013-2014. |
| Keywords: | NSLP, Direct Certification |
| JEL: | I0 I1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:2ce1e3c4e29a43e9aa574274d6cded5c&r=net |
| By: | Pinna, Andrea; Ruttenberg, Wiebe |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, information technology has contributed significantly to the evolution of financial markets, without, however, revolutionising the way in which financial institutions interact with one another. This may be about to change, as some market players are now predicting that new database technologies, such as blockchain and other distributed ledger technologies (DLTs), could be the source of an imminent revolution. This paper analyses the main features of DLTs that could influence their potential adoption by financial institutions and discusses how the use of these technologies could affect the European post-trade market for securities. The original protocol underlying DLTs has its roots in the anarchic world of virtual currencies, which operate outside the conventional financial system. The public debate on DLTs has also been very much focused on the revolutionary potential of the technology. This paper concludes that, irrespective of the technology used and the market players involved, certain processes that feature in the post-trade market for securities will still need to be performed by institutions. DLTs could, however, stimulate a reorganisation of financial markets, which could in turn: (i) reduce reconciliation costs, (ii) streamline the post-trade value chain, and (iii) allow more efficient use to be made of collateral and regulatory capital. It should, nevertheless, be remembered that research into DLTs and their uses is at an early stage. The scope for financial institutions to adopt DLTs and their potential impact on mainstream financial markets are still unclear. This paper discusses three potential models of how market players could adopt DLTs for performing core post-trade functions. The DLT could be adopted either: (i) in clusters, (ii) collectively, or (iii) peer to peer. The evaluation of the three adoption models assumes that they are all equally compatible with the regulatory framework. It shows that, assuming this to be the case, they would each have different advantages and costs. JEL Classification: G21, G23, L15, O33 |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, blockchain, clearing, distributed ledger technologies, financial market infrastructures, fintech, settlement |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2016172&r=net |
| By: | Jeffrey A. Flory; Andreas Leibbrandt; John A. List |
| Abstract: | Workplace misbehaviors are often governed by explicit monitoring and strict punishment. Such enforcement activities can serve to lessen worker productivity and harm worker morale. We take a different approach to curbing worker misbehavior—bonuses. Examining more than 6500 donor phone calls across more than 80 workers, we use a natural field experiment to investigate how different wage contracts influence workers’ propensity to cheat and sabotage one another. Our findings show that even though standard relative performance pay contracts, relative to a fixed wage scheme, increase productivity, they have a dark side: they cause considerable cheating and sabotage of co-workers. Yet, even in such environments, by including an unexpected bonus, the employer can substantially curb worker misbehavior. In this manner, our findings reveal how employers can effectively leverage bonuses to eliminate undesired behaviors induced by performance pay contracts. |
| JEL: | C9 C93 J3 J41 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22342&r=net |
| By: | Thomas Buser (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands); Leonie Gerhards (University of Hamburg, Germany); Joël J. van der Weele (University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | People typically update their beliefs about their own abilities too little in response to feed-back, a phenomenon known as “conservatism”, and some studies suggest that they overweight good relative to bad signals (“asymmetry”). We measure individual conservatism and asymmetry in three tasks that test different cognitive skills, and study entry into a winner-takes-all competition based on similar skills. We show that individual differences in feedback responsiveness explain an important part of the variation in confidence and competition entry decisions. Conservatism is correlated across tasks and predicts competition entry both by influencing beliefs and independently of beliefs, suggesting it can be considered a personal trait. Subjects tend to be more conservative in tasks that they see as more ego-relevant and women are more conservative than men. Asymmetry is less stable across tasks, but predicts competition entry by increasing self-confidence. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian updating; feedback; confidence; identity; competitive behavior |
| JEL: | C91 C93 D83 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160043&r=net |
| By: | Jan Christoph Schlegel |
| Abstract: | We study conditions for the existence of stable, strategy-proof mechanisms in a many-to-one matching model with discrete salary space (the discrete Kelso-Crawford model). Workers and firms want to match many-to-one and agree on the terms of their match. Firms demand different sets of workers at different salaries. Workers have preferences over different firm-salary combinations. Workers' preferences are monotone in salaries. We show that for this model a descending auction mechanism is the only candidate for a stable mechanism that is strategy-proof for workers. Moreover, we identify a maximal domain of demand functions for firms, such that the mechanism is stable and strategy-proof. For each demand function in our domain, we can construct a related demand function that we call a virtual demand function. Replacing demand functions by virtual demand functions will not change the outcome of our mechanism. Known conditions (gross substitutability and the law of aggregate demand) can be applied to the virtual demand profile to check whether the mechanism is stable and strategy-proof. Our result gives a sense in which gross substitutability and the law of aggregate demand are necessary for the existence of a stable and strategy-proof mechanism. In the special case where demand functions are generated by quasi-linear profit functions, demand functions and virtual demand functions agree. Thus for this case, our domain reduces to the domain of demand functions under which workers are gross substitutes. |
| Keywords: | Matching with contracts; Matching with salaries; Gross Substitutes; Virtual Demand |
| JEL: | C78 D47 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lau:crdeep:16.11&r=net |
| By: | Weber, Jeremy G.; Wang, Yongsheng; Chomas, Maxwell |
| Abstract: | We provide a quantitative description of state-level taxation of oil and gas production in the Continental U.S. for 2004 to 2013. Aggregate revenues from production taxes nearly doubled in real terms over the period, reaching $10.3 billion and accounting for 20 percent of tax receipts in the top ten revenue states. The average state had a tax rate of 3.6 percent; nationally, the average dollar of production was taxed at 4.2 percent. The oil-specific rate estimated for the study period is $2.4 per barrel or $5.5 per ton of carbon. Lastly, state-level tax rates are two-thirds higher in states excluding oil and gas wells from local property taxes, suggesting that the policies are substitutes for one another. |
| Keywords: | state policy, oil and gas taxation, effective tax rates |
| JEL: | Q38 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71733&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Larger container ships have generated cost savings for carriers, decreased maritime transport costs and as such facilitated global trade in the past. However, larger ships require adaptations of infrastructure, equipment and cause larger peaks in container traffic in ports, with wide-ranging impacts. This report assesses if the benefits of the current mega container ships still outweigh their costs to the whole transport chain. |
| Date: | 2015–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:10-en&r=net |
| By: | Elwert, Annika (Department of Economic History, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This study raises the question of how marriage market relevant status characteristics are distributed among partners in exogamous relationships. The status exchange hypothesis posits that partners in racially and ethnically heterogamous relationships trade status characteristics, mainly education. We address this hypothesis focusing on intermarriages between immigrants and native men (N=606,257) and women (N=600,165) in Sweden using register data covering the entire Swedish population for the period 1990 to 2009. Results from binomial and multinomial logistic regressions show that low status in terms of age, income, and previous relationships are determinants for exogamy, and that the main marriage market relevant status that is exchanged is age, not education. This holds particularly for immigrants from certain countries of origin such as for wives from Asia and Africa and husbands from Asia, Africa and the Middle East. Swedish men and women show surprisingly large symmetry in status exchange patterns |
| Keywords: | Interethnic marriage; Immigration/Migrant families; Ethnicity; Western European families |
| JEL: | J12 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:luekhi:0147&r=net |
| By: | Dorner, Zach; Brent, Daniel A.; Leroux, Anke |
| Abstract: | Risk is an important attribute of goods, whereby the utility derived from that attribute is determined by one's attitude to risk. We develop a novel approach to leverage data on risk attitudes from a fully incentivized risk elicitation task to model intrinsic riskiness of alternatives in a choice experiment. In a door-to-door survey, 981 respondents participated in a discrete choice experiment to elicit pref- erences over alternative sources of municipal water, conditional on water price and quality. Additional source attributes, such as supply risks due to the water source being weather dependent or technology risks are treated as intrinsic as they cannot be plausibly disassociated from the water supply source. The risk task allows the estimation of a coefficient of constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) for an indi- vidual, which is incorporated into the preference estimation to test the hypotheses that supply risk and new technology risk are important intrinsic attributes for new water sources. Participants are not given information about supply or technological risks of the sources to avoid framing effects driving the results. Controlling for water quality and cost, we find that supply risk is an important determinant of participants' choices, while respondents are not concerned about technology risk. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236644&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report presents new evidence on how Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are changing the demand for skills at work. While the use of ICT at work increased in a large majority of countries between 2011 and 2014, a significant number of workers do not seem to have sufficient skills to use these technologies effectively. The diffusion of ICTs is also changing the way work is carried out, increasing the raising the demand for “soft skills” such as communication, self-direction and problem solving. While these findings offer some new and interesting insights, the report discusses various avenues for further analysis. |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:258-en&r=net |
| By: | Vicondoa, Alejandro |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies anticipated (news) and unanticipated (surprise) shocks to the U.S. Fed Funds rate using CBOT Fed Funds Future Market and assesses their propagation to emerging economies. Anticipated movements account for 80% of quarterly Fed Funds fluctuations and explain a significant fraction of the narrative monetary policy shocks. An expected 1% increase in the reference interest rate induces a fall of 2% in GDP of emerging economies two quarters before the shock materializes. Unanticipated contractionary shocks also cause a recession. Both shocks have a larger impact in emerging relative to developed economies and the financial channel is the most relevant for their transmission. Anticipation is also relevant to understand the transmission of U.S. real interest rate shocks. |
| Keywords: | International business cycle, Interest rate, News shocks, Small open economy |
| JEL: | E32 E52 F41 F44 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2016/10&r=net |
| By: | Alexander N. Bogin (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes an empirical approach to generate plausible, historically-based interest rate shocks, which can be applied to any market environment and can readily link to movements in other key risk factors. The approach is based upon yield curve parameterization and requires a parsimonious yet flexible factorization model. |
| Keywords: | factorization, implied volatility, interest rates, market risk |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G32 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:13-02&r=net |
| By: | Paul Hubbard (The Australian National University); Dhruv Sharma |
| Abstract: | We project gross domestic product (GDP) for 140 world economies from 2020 to 2050 based on United Nation's demographic projections, the International Monetary Fund's GDP statistics and estimates of potential labour productivity derived from the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) and a methodology published by the Australian Treasury. We review the conceptual framework underpinning this model, and identify its core assumptions. Finally, we highlight potential applications for this model, including : considering the dispersion of global economic activity; assessing the potential scale of activity across different trading blocs; and quantifying the impact of domestic policy reform scenarios in individual economies. Rather than provide an exhaustive analysis of the results, we make the data and results freely available . The views expressed in this paper represent the views of the authors and not those of the Australian Treasury. |
| JEL: | E01 E13 C82 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eab:wpaper:25601&r=net |
| By: | Kurz-Kim, Jeong-Ryeol |
| Abstract: | Using a simple sign test, we report new empirical evidence, taken from both the US and the German stock markets, showing that trading behavior substantially changed around Black Monday in 1987. It turned out that before Black Monday investors behaved more as in the momentum strategy; and after Black Monday more as in the contrarian strategy. We argue that crashes, in general, themselves are merely a manifestation of uncertainty on stock markets and the high uncertainty due to globalization is mainly responsible for this change. |
| Keywords: | Trading behavior,Momentum,Contrarian,Black Monday,Globalization,Uncertainty |
| JEL: | C12 G02 G11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:182016&r=net |
| By: | Jörn Block; Lars Hornuf; Alexandra Moritz |
| Abstract: | Start-ups often post updates during equity crowdfunding campaigns. Yet, little is known about the effects of such updates on funding success. We investigate this question by using handcollected data from 71 funding campaigns on two German equity crowdfunding portals. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative empirical research techniques, we find that posting an update has a significant positive effect on the number of investments by the crowd and the investment amount collected by the start-up. This effect does not occur immediately in its entirety; rather, it is lagged by a few days. The positive effect increases with the number of words of the update. Distinguishing by the content of the update, we find that the positive effect can be attributed to updates on new funding and business developments and updates on promotional campaigns run by the start-up. Updates on the start-up team, business model, cooperation projects, and product developments do not have meaningful effects. Our paper contributes to the literature on the effects of information disclosure on equity crowdfunding success and offers potential guidance for startups in designing effective and successful equity crowdfunding campaigns. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:201606&r=net |
| By: | Alexandros SARRIS (University of Athens) |
| Abstract: | The process of agricultural transformation is discussed, and the role of agriculture in both growth and poverty reduction is reviewed. The finance needs for agricultural development in low income food insecure countries is discussed, and the public and other official flows to agricultural development reviewed. It is seen that the monetary flows into agriculture have been grossly inadequate, compared to needs. The situation of smallholders is reviewed, and their financing needs are explored. It is indicated that the current finance flows to smallholders are less than 5 percent of perceived needs. A variety of institutional methods and models for increasing agricultural smallholder finance are then reviewed and assessed. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2929&r=net |
| By: | Myasoyedov, Sergei (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Martirosyan, Emil (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sergeeva, Anastasia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In modern conditions of international business the main driver of corporate value, along with successful products and technologies, is human capital. Its stability and programmed growth in one company is prerequisite for successful implementation of the strategy. Companies are developing in the sphere of international, global business, in this context, the global mobility of human capital is already a well-established trend and prospect of career employees, their capitalization in the international context. Global mobility of staff in businesses as the phenomenon grows into a massive trend and makes new, unique demands for cultural, professional and personal adaptation to local realities of the country. |
| Keywords: | international business, corporations, mobility, globalisation, staff, HR, technologies |
| Date: | 2015–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:2312&r=net |
| By: | Gilles Le Garrec (OFCE); Vincent Touze (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | We characterize the dynamics of secular stagnation as a permanent regime switching from a full employment equilibrium to an underemployment equilibrium. In the latter, the natural interest rate is negative, and the economy is in deáation. Due to the non negativity condition imposed on policy rate, the zero lower bond (ZLB) applies which prevents targeting ináation. The secular stagnation equilibrium is achieved in a standard overlapping generations model with capital accumulation where two market imperfections are introduced: credit rationing and downward nominal wage rigidity. To Ögure out how to escape the secular stagnation trap, we study the impact of various macroeconomic policies. Raising the ináation target is only e§ective if the central bank has enough credibility. By supporting aggregate demand, Öscal policy can help the economy get out of the secular stagnation trap. However, this policy reduces the incentive to accumulate capital: there is a trade-o§ between exiting secular stagnation and depressing potential GDP. Dynamic multi- pliers are upper than one unless the Öscal stimilus is too strong. We also shed light on an asymmetry in the dynamics: recovery takes longer than falling into recession. |
| Keywords: | Secular stagnation; Capital accumulation; Zero lower Bound |
| JEL: | D91 E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/69n0a0mntc92to9jgrhc3ppj6u&r=net |
| By: | Jia, Xue (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | This dissertation uses economic modelling to explore the value of information disclosures to the firm and investors in capital markets. Specifically, two chapters investigate the interaction between manager’s decisions and the value of information to investors, while another two chapters examine how disclosures affect the risk sharing among heterogeneous investors. The first chapter studies how manager’s information acquisition strategy affects the information content of management forecast and shows that the manager’s private forward looking information would lead to informative management forecasts and forecast errors only when there is a positive relation between firm performance and manager’s forecasting ability. The second chapter investigates the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reporting on the firm's CSR investment decision and demonstrates that disclosing either the firm’s contribution to the externalities from CSR investment or the cost of CSR investment can discipline the manager’s CSR investment policy, but disclosing two pieces of information together cannot further improve the investment efficiency. The third chapter analyses how disclosure format affects the risk sharing among informed and uninformed investors and proves that separating multiple pieces of information and disclosing each piece of information at a different time can achieve efficient risk allocation among investors and thus lower the firm’s cost of capital. The fourth chapter examines the heterogeneous investment horizons of investors and suggests that long-horizon investors perform short-term trading to share the first period stock price risk with short-horizon investors. This lowers the risk premium in the stock price. Moreover, such short-term trading increases with the firm’s guidance on the short-term cash flow while decreases with the guidance on the long-term cash flow. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:9bacfbaa-2162-49fe-92e6-53595e15a89a&r=net |
| By: | Uriel Procaccia; Eyal Winter |
| Abstract: | Corporate entities enjoy legal subjectivity in a variety of forms, but they are not human beings. This paper explores, from a normative point of view, one of the limits that ought to be imposed on the capacity of corporations to be treated "as if" they had a human nature, their recognition as legitimate bearers of basic human rights. The assertion that corporations, like living persons, are entitled to constitutional protection was famously brought to the fore by a number of recent Supreme Court cases, most notably the Citizens United and the Hobby Lobby cases. In the rational choice analysis that follows this paper concludes that the new jurisprudence emanating from Citizens United may be justified in the relatively insignificant cases of small companies with egalitarian distribution of shares, but ought to be rejected in the more meaningful cases of large public corporations with controlling stockholders. Hobby Lobby, on the other hand, presents a more nuanced dilemma and has some normative advantages that are not apparent in situations resembling Citizens United. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:huj:dispap:dp698&r=net |
| By: | Gervas Huxley; Mike W. Peacey |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop the observation that college students may suffer from self-control problems (O'Donoghue and Rabin (2007)). In our model students face a self-control problem when making choices about how to learn: students acquire education using different combinations of study and tuition (S and T). We consider an `asymmetric' self-control problem, where students can commit to T but not S and investigate how this affects their decisions. We show that the degree of self-awareness interacts with how students learn and how this determines the ability to self-correct by precommitment. Finally we show how the appropriate pricing of tuition can ameliorate these problems. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Learning, Self-control, Hyperbolic Discounting. |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:16/675&r=net |
| By: | Kim Do; Ariel Dinar |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to contribute to understanding the existing knowledge gaps in the linkages of energy, water, and land use in Southeast Asia and explores the political economy of energy transition in the Mekong region (MR). Investigating the struggle over hydropower development and decision-making on water and land across the region, this study shows that countries that are the winners or losers in the hydropower development schemes are not the only ones managing the Mekong; rather, it is part of the region-wide strategy of nations to sustain the MR.The analysis also explores the key issues involved in each nation, as the rush to acquire sources of alternative energy and other benefits to meet rapid growth demand has led to circumstances of risk within the MR. The relationship between MR cooperation programmes and China is a main concern, and the paper discusses the roles of issue linkages as a mechanism for achieving sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Natural resources, Power resources, Water |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-062&r=net |
| By: | Alexandra Avdeenko; Thomas Siedler |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the importance of parental socialization on the development of children’s far right-wing preferences and attitudes towards immigration. Using longitudinal data from Germany, our intergenerational estimates suggest that the strongest and most important predictor for young people’s right-wing extremism are parents’ right-wing extremist attitudes. While intergenerational associations in attitudes towards immigration are equally high for sons and daughters, we find a positive intergenerational transmission of right-wing extremist party affinity for sons, but not for daughters. Compared to the intergenerational correlation of other party affinities, the high association between fathers’ and sons’ right-wing extremist attitudes is particularly striking. |
| Keywords: | political preferences, extremism, gender differences, longitudinal data, intergenerational links |
| JEL: | C23 D72 J62 P16 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp845&r=net |
| By: | Maria Nieswand; Stefan Seifert |
| Abstract: | Benchmarking methods are widely used in the regulation of firms in network industries working under heterogeneous exogenous environments. In this paper we compare three recently developed estimators, namely conditional DEA (Daraio and Simar, 2005, 2007b), latent class SFA (Orea and Kumbhakar, 2004; Greene, 2005), and the StoNEZD approach (Johnson and Kuosmanen, 2011) by means of Monte Carlo simulation focusing on their ability to identify production frontiers in the presence of environmental factors. Data generation replicates regulatory data from the energy sector in terms of sample size, sample dispersion and distribution, and correlations of variables. Although results show strengths of each of the three estimators in particular settings, latent class SFA perform best in nearly all simulations. Further, results indicate that the accuracy of the estimators is less sensitive against different distributions of environmental factors, their correlations with inputs, and their impact on the production process, but performance of all approaches deteriorates with increasing noise. For regulators this study provides orientation to adopt new benchmarking methods given industry characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Monte Carlo Simulation, Environmental Factors, StoNEZD, Latent Class SFA, Conditional DEA, Regulatory Benchmarking |
| JEL: | L50 Q50 C63 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1585&r=net |
| By: | Da-Rocha, Jose-Maria; García-Cutrin, Javier; Gutierrez, Maria Jose |
| Abstract: | By using robustness methods we design HCRs that explicitly include scientific uncertainty. Under scientific uncertainty –when the perceived model can be generated by a nearby op- erating model– robust HCRs are designed assuming that the (inferred) operating model is more persistent than the perceived model. As a result, a robust HCR has a steeper ratio between fishing mortality and biomass than a non robust one. We prove that constant effort HCRs are not robust. Moreover, rather than decreasing fishing mortality reference points for exploitation, the optimal robust response to scientific uncertainty is to increases biomass precautionary limit points when knowledge about the stock status decreases. Finally, we show that robustness can be implemented if fishing mortality is increased faster than lin- early –by a factor of 2-fold– when a stock is assessed as above 0.5BMSY. We illustrate our findings by designing HCRs for 17 ICES stocks using this rule of thumb. |
| Keywords: | HCR, Robustness |
| JEL: | C61 Q22 |
| Date: | 2016–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72059&r=net |
| By: | Gerardo Licandro (Banco Central del Uruguay); Miguel Mello (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | Do inflation expectations react to news? In the last decade, Uruguay has resorted to heterodox practices along with inflation targeting to prevent the divergence of inflation, including price subsidies and agreements. Using data from a novel survey of firm's inflation expectations we study individual inflation expectation updates and the impact on individual expectation updates of news regarding monetary policy and other heterodox measures. To control for monetary policy stance we construct a qualitative index of monetary policy based on monetary policy communications. We construct several news indices for monetary policy and other measures. We find that price controls news tends to generate clusters of inflation expectations updates. Using several econometric techniques we are able to find that news about heterodox measures do affect inflation expectations with the expected sign. |
| Keywords: | Monetary transmission, inflation expectations, expectations channel |
| JEL: | E43 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bku:doctra:2015008&r=net |
| By: | Eric Kehinde Ogunleye |
| Keywords: | Nigeria, political economy, power sector reform, privatization, renewable energy |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-009&r=net |
| By: | Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Abstract The paper develops a model to consistently estimate agglomeration and agglomeration economies in European NUTS3 regions. It is based on the empirical observation that the size of population across regions as well as of other economic variables tend to follow a Zipf distribution. Furthermore, the model is extended to capture agglomeration effects in traditional regional convergence estimations. Agglomeration is analysed for 25 European countries, including Macedonia and Serbia, and the years 2000 to 2012. Results indicate significant agglomeration effects on the level and growth of regional economic development, with agglomeration and agglomeration economies generally declining in the Western European countries and increasing the Central East and South East European countries. |
| Keywords: | Zipf’s Law, agglomeration economies, Europe, Western Balkans |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:bpaper:117&r=net |
| By: | Boldanov, Rustam; Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the time-varying conditional correlation between oil price and stock market volatility for six major oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. The period of the study runs from January 2000 until December 2014 and a Diag-BEKK model is employed. Our findings report the following regularities. (i) The correlation between the oil and stock market volatilities changes over time fluctuating at both positive and negative values. (ii). Heterogeneous patterns in the time-varying correlations are evident between the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. (iii) Correlations are responsive to major economic and geopolitical events, such as the early-2000 recession, the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the global financial crisis of 2007-2009. These findings are important for risk management practices, derivative pricing and portfolio rebalancing. |
| Keywords: | Conditional volatility, realized volatility, time-varying correlation, Diag-BEKK, GARCH, oil-importing countries, oil-exporting countries |
| JEL: | C32 C51 G15 Q40 |
| Date: | 2015–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72082&r=net |
| By: | Samuel Danthine (CREST-ENSAI,); Michel De Vroey (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | Peter Diamond, Monika Merz, and David Andolfatto must all three be credited for having integrated a search perspective in macroeconomic theory. In a previous paper, “The Integration of Search in Macroeconomics: Two Alternative Paths”, we set ourselves the task of analyzing and comparing their respective contributions. To support our study, we conducted interviews with them. The present paper is an edited transcript of these three interviews. |
| Keywords: | Search and matching models, Diamond, Lucas, Andolfatto, Merz, Real Business Cycle models, Matching function, Unemployment |
| JEL: | B21 B40 D83 E24 J64 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2016013&r=net |
| By: | Star, Megan; Rolfe, John; Beutel, Terry; McCosker, Kev; Ellis, Robin; Coughlin, Tom |
| Abstract: | The decline in health of the Great Barrier Reef and the pressure on allocating funds efficiently has resulted in the catchments adjacent to the reef revising their Water Quality Improvement Plans. The Fitzroy basin and coastal catchments is 152,000km2 and geographically diverse, past work has identified the need to prioritise funds to achieve cost effective outcomes. For this paper we aim to present an alternative approach to effective prioritisation of sediment reductions. The approach integrates spatial information regarding the sediment source and process, levels of adoption, bare ground cover, and cost into a function to rank neighbourhood catchments. The results identify particular areas of the catchment and also demonstrate the complexity of the issue and the challenge the Fitzroy Basin Association faces when allocating funds. It does however demonstrate that there are effective opportunities in particular areas within the catchment, proving it to be a useful approach in understanding where in the catchment to focus efforts for different sediment reductions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235624&r=net |
| By: | James Manley (Department of Economics, Eastern Michigan University); Vanya Slavchevska (Consultant, Gender Analysis, FAO, Rome, Italy.) |
| Abstract: | Early evidence has been ambiguous on the effects of cash transfer programmes on children, but little has focused on Africa. We review the literature on twenty cash transfer schemes, including twelve from Sub-Saharan Africa. Such interventions have shown improvements in household diet and in some cases to agriculture, but have not always improved child health. However, a larger perspective focusing on the first 1000 days of life reveals more opportunities for impact. In particular the opportunity to empower young women to get secondary education and cut adolescent pregnancy rates can improve the health of African children. Cash transfer programmes seem cost effective, though they are not without flaws. |
| Keywords: | Social protection, cash transfers, Sub-Saharan Africa, child health, adolescent health. |
| JEL: | Q15 I18 I15 J13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-12&r=net |
| By: | Esin Cakan (Department of Economics, University of New Haven, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria and IPAG Business School, Paris, France) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the impactof US macroeconomic announcement surprises on the volatility of the South African equity market. We employ the asymmetric GJR-GARCH model that that allows for both positive and negative surprises about inflation and unemployment rate announcements in the U.S. By examining daily data on South African stock market returns from 31 May 1994 to 8 March 2016, we find that shocks to volatility are persistent and asymmetric. While bad news about US inflation does not affect the volatility of South African stock returns, good news tend to increase the volatility. Further, the South African stock market becomes more risky with an unexpected increase in the US unemployment rate and less risky with the an unexpected decrease in the US unemployment rate, with the latter effect being stronger than the former. Our findings demonstrate that US economic conditions may have an impact on the risk profile of the South African equity market. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric GARCH, US macroeconomic news, surprises, South Africa |
| JEL: | C22 G1 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201646&r=net |
| By: | Colombelli, Alessandra; Krafft, Jackie; Vivarelli, Marco (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the reasons why entry per se is not necessarily good and the evidence showing that innovative startups survive longer than their non-innovative counterparts. In this framework, our own empirical analysis shows that greater survival is achieved when startups engage successfully in both product innovation and process innovation, with a key role of the latter. Moreover, this study goes beyond a purely microeconomic perspective and discusses the key role of the environment within which innovative entries occur. What shown and discussed in this contribution strongly supports the proposal that the creation and survival of innovative start-ups should become one qualifying point of the economic policy agenda. |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:201602&r=net |
| By: | Priyanka Anand; Yonatan Ben-Shalom |
| Abstract: | In this brief administrative data from the Social Security Administration was used to examine the paths followed by new awardees of Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) and to study the characteristics of awardees who have been most likely to take particular DI and SSI paths. |
| Keywords: | SSI, DI, Federal disability benefits |
| JEL: | I J |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:600b6b09fae4429196b82046e7daa421&r=net |
| By: | Degiannakis, Stavros; Filis, George; Hassani, Hossein |
| Abstract: | This study provides a new approach for implied volatility indices forecasting. We assess whether non-parametric techniques provide better predictions of implied volatility compared to standard forecasting models, such as AFRIMA and HAR. A combination of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and Holt-Winters (HW) model is applied on eight implied volatility indices for the period from February, 2001 to July, 2013. The findings confirm that the SSA-HW provides statistically superior one trading day and ten trading days ahead implied volatility forecasts world widely. Model-averaged forecasts suggest that the forecasting accuracy is further enhanced, for the ten-days ahead, when the SSA-HW is combined with an ARI(1,1) model. Additionally, the trading game reveals that the SSA-HW and the ARI-SSA-HW are able to generate significant average positive net daily returns in the out-of-sample period. The results are important for option pricing, portfolio management, value-at-risk and economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Implied Volatility, Volatility Forecasting, Singular Spectrum Analysis, ARFIMA, HAR, Holt-Winters, Model Confidence Set, Combined Forecasts. |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C52 C53 G15 |
| Date: | 2015–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72084&r=net |
| By: | Berner, Eike; Birg, Laura; Boddin, Dominik |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we estimate pass-through rates of import price changes to retail prices across retailers and consumers for apparel purchases in Germany for the period of 2000 to 2007. We find that high-price retailers do not pass through changes in the import price. Pass-through rates for low-price retailers are 53% within 3 months. Consequently, pass-through rates for low-income households are 58%, significantly larger than those for high-income households. We then present one possible explanation for these observations in a theoretical model with endogenous vertical product differentiation due to bundling an ex-ante homogeneous import good with services. Following an import price change, retailers who sell a cheaper unbundled product change prices to a greater extent than retailers who sell a higher-priced bundle of product and service. |
| Keywords: | import prices,pass-through,retailers,households |
| JEL: | D12 D31 F10 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:133r&r=net |
| By: | Sosso FEINDOUNO (Ferdi); Michaël GOUJON (Université d'Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This document presents detailed calculation principles for annual retrospective series of the Economic Vulnerability Index according to the UN-CDP definitions of the 2015 Review. It is organized as successive technical sheets explaining calculation of the retrospective EVI components and presenting adjustments that had to be made to obtain retrospective series. Retrospective series cover 145 developing countries (among which 48 LDCs and 97 non-LDCs) over the 1990-2013 period (starting in 1975 for some components and countries). These series are gathered in the companion database which is publicly available on the Ferdi’s website. An associated website allows users to build their own EVI from these retrospective series (http://byind.ferdi.fr/). |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2782&r=net |
| By: | Sosso FEINDOUNO (Ferdi); Michaël GOUJON (University of Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This document presents detailed calculation principles for annual retrospective series of the Economic Vulnerability Index according to the UN-CDP definitions of the 2015 Review. It is organized as successive technical sheets explaining calculation of the retrospective EVI components and presenting adjustments that had to be made to obtain retrospective series. Retrospective series cover 145 developing countries (among which 48 LDCs and 97 non-LDCs) over the 1990-2013 period (starting in 1975 for some components and countries). These series are gathered in the companion database which is publicly available on the Ferdi’s website. An associated website allows users to build their own EVI from these retrospective series (http://byind.ferdi.fr/). |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2783&r=net |
| By: | Christian EBEKE (International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Mario MANSOUR (Fiscal Affairs Department - International Monetary Fund); Grégoire ROTA-GRAZIOSI (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | In the context of achieving the new Sustainable Development Goals, revenue mobilization is a high priority in developing countries and in Sub-Saharan Africa, where governments’ ability to tax remains limited. Using a unique revenue dataset spanning the period 1980-2010, we analyze three important tax reforms: the Large Taxpayers Unit (LTU), the Value Added Tax (VAT), and the Semi-Autonomous Revenue Agency (SARA). We propose an ex-post impact assessment of these tax reforms in SSA countries based on propensity-score matching methodology (PSM) and synthetic control method (SCM). VAT and SARA are found to have an unambiguously large and positive effect on non-resource taxes, while the impact of LTU is insignificant—LTU seems however an important precondition for the adoption of the first two reforms. We conclude also that VAT and SARA display some synergy, and their positive effects strengthen several years after their adoption.Keywords: tax reforms; Africa; revenue mobilization; causality. |
| Keywords: | tax reforms, Africa, revenue mobilization, causality. |
| JEL: | H2 O23 O55 C1 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:3005&r=net |
| By: | Tercero Espinoza, Luis Alberto; Soulier, Marcel; Haag, Stefan |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper presents a brief but comprehensive graphical overview of copper contained in international trade, from copper concentrates through to finished products. Extensive data checks and a simple consolidation method were performed before visualizing the data on world maps. While data were collected and anlyzed for the period 1992-2014, the year 2014 is used here to follow the global journey of copper from mine to final users. |
| Keywords: | copper,trade balances,embedded copper,foreign trade |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s032016&r=net |
| By: | Dagmara Nikulin (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | The main aim of this article is to point out the possible measures of how to improve the study of informal employment in developed countries. We choose the case of Poland to examine whether the existing definitions and measurement methods are suitable for indicating the prevalence of informal employment. Firstly, we present the most popular definitions of informal employment, secondly we show the existing research on informal employment in Poland, and thirdly we assess the previous estimations of informal employment in Poland with regard to the definition’s scope. Finally, we propose some improvements that would help in studying this phenomenon in Poland. Through a critical analysis of existing research on informal employment we contribute to the existing literature in two ways: (i) by constructing the definitional frames of informal employment in Poland; and (ii) by pointing out the possible extensions of surveys devoted to informal employment in developed countries. |
| Keywords: | informal employment, Poland, undeclared work, shadow economy |
| JEL: | E26 J46 O17 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdk:wpaper:35&r=net |
| By: | Shakir, Zeeniya; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The European Debt crisis hit hard on the Eurozone, where the market convergence, rigid exchange rates and the single currency based instruments create tight challenges for investors in terms of looking for safer investments and portfolio diversification. Islamic Equity markets in Eurozone provide safety compared to debt based highly volatile derivatives that caused the global financial collapse. Since it is critical to study areas with implications for the portfolio diversification issue for the investors and policy makers from the perspective of Islamic Equity markets, this paper makes the humble effort of filling in the gap in literature. The paper analyses how the Islamic Equity Markets in the Eurozone change in periods of crisis analyzing their regime shift probabilities and durations using Markov- Switching techniques. Overall, the time-variations in market indices suggest that the Islamic Equity markets in Eurozone are not immune to external shocks and they tend to fluctuate with the economic and financial shocks. The study also shows how Islamic Market investors, from Germany’s perspective could find any optimal diversification opportunities inside the Eurozone and shows if there is a need for investing outside the Eurozone to maximize diversification benefits by empirically testing the time-varying and scale dependent volatilities and correlations using the method of Continuous Wavelet Transform. The period covered is from 12 June 2008 till 21 April 2016, with spans of weekly data of S&P Europe 350 Shariah – (S&P Dow Jones Indices) stock index prices changed into returns using logarithmic equations. The results of the study shed light into the area pf portfolio diversification between the studied countries within the Eurozone, showing very little diversification opportunities between the member countries. Overall there is little room for diversification in the highly correlated markets across heterogeneous investment horizons. |
| Keywords: | International Portfolio Diversification, Eurozone Islamic Equity Markets Stock, Markov Switching, Continuous Wavelet Transform |
| JEL: | C58 G11 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71683&r=net |
| By: | De Chiara, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | How does the probability of being involved in a renegotiation during the execution of a procurement contract affect the behavior of the interested contractors? What are its implications for the optimal contractual choice made by the buyer? We investigate these issues in a context characterized by uncertainty about the adequateness of the project initially specified by the buyer. We determine under which circumstances the buyer may find it profitable to hold an auction for a project design which ex-ante does not have the highest probability of being adequate. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric Auctions, Procurement, Renegotiation. |
| JEL: | D44 D86 H57 |
| Date: | 2015–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72108&r=net |
| By: | Xiao Lin |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to present a dual-term structure model of interest rate derivatives in order to solve the two hardest problems in financial modeling: the exact volatility calibration of the entire swaption matrix, and the calculation of bucket vegas for structured products. The model takes a series of long-term zero-coupon rates as basic state variables that are driven directly by one or more Brownian motion. The model volatility is assigned in a matrix form with two terms. A complete numerical scheme for implementing the model has been developed in the paper. At the end, several examples have been given for the model calibration, the structured products pricing and the calculation of bucket vegas. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.01343&r=net |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Abdurrahman Nazif Catik; Mohamad Husam Helmi; Faek Menla Ali; Coskun Akdeniz |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the Taylor rule in five emerging economies, namely Indonesia, Israel, South Korea, Thailand, and Turkey. In particular, it investigates whether monetary policy in these countries can be more accurately described by (i) an augmented rule including the exchange rate, as well as (ii) a nonlinear threshold specification (estimated using GMM), instead of a baseline linear rule. The results suggest that the reaction of monetary authorities to deviations from target of either the inflation or the output gap varies in terms of magnitude and/or statistical significance across the high and low inflation regimes in all countries. In particular, the exchange rate has an impact in the former but not in the latter regime. Overall, an augmented nonlinear Taylor rule appears to capture more accurately the behaviour of monetary authorities in these countries. |
| Keywords: | Taylor rule, nonlinearities, emerging countries |
| JEL: | C13 C51 C52 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1588&r=net |
| By: | Santiago Bucaram; Mario Fernandez; Diego Grijalva |
| Abstract: | The Yasuni National Park is a protected area located in the Amazon region of Ecuador and is recognized as one of the most biodiverse regions in the world. In recent years the park has received much attention due to the media exposure of the Yasuni-ITT Initiative. This Initiative proposed a moratorium on oil activities in the Ishpingo-Timbococha-Tiputini (ITT) blocks within the Yasuni National Park, in exchange for US$3.6 billion in compensation over ten years, to be paid by the international community.In this paper we first conduct a feasibility analysis of the ITT Initiative and show that it was severely flawed from its inception. Second, we develop a financial approach for a .New ITT Initiative.. We propose the sale or leasing of the rights of extraction of the oil deposits in the Park as a feasible strategy to keep the oil underground and consequently to protect the Yasuni National Park.s ecosystem services. Our proposal is much more simplified and transparent than the original ITT Initiative and could be easily implemented through existing financial mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Nonrenewable natural resources, Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-014&r=net |
| By: | Elton Dusha |
| Abstract: | I build a model with bequests, financial frictions and corrupt bureaucrats to explain the link between corruption and inequality and its effects on productivity. Because of collateral requirements, profits are determined by wealth. If individual wealth is not publicly observed, taxation is regressive under corruption. When wealth inequality is high, corruption is more prevalent, creating persistent feedback between corruption and inequality. I calibrate the model and investigate the effect of corruption on inequality and TFP. Through regressive taxation, corruption induces wealth levels to inversely affect the productivity selection. This in turn has adverse effects on aggregate TFP. JEL classiffications: E02; E24; H2; O4. Key words: Keywords: inequality, corruption, nancial frictions, productivity, size distribution. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:319&r=net |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Marco Grazzi; Nanditha Mathew |
| Abstract: | "Learning-by-doing" is usually identified as a process whereby performance increases with experience in production. The paper investigates different patterns of "learning by doing", studying learning curves at product level. Cost-quantity relationships differ a lot across products belonging to sectors with different "technological intensities". Moreover, such differential patterns are affected by firm spending on research and capital investments. Finally, our evidence suggests that "learning", or performance improvement over time is not a by-product of the mere repetition of the same production activities, as sometimes reported in previous studies, but rather it seems to be shaped by deliberate firm learning efforts and by the interactions among firms themselves. |
| Keywords: | Learning-by-doing, learning curves, power law, product innovation, process innovation |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2016/26&r=net |
| By: | Mohn, Klaus (UiS) |
| Abstract: | Since the turn of the century The International Energy Agency (IEA) has assumed a gradually more important role in defining the agenda and outlook for energy and climate policies. This essay reviews the methodology and methods behind IEA’s World Energy Outlook, and then offers a critical review of assumptions and projections, focusing in particular on the outlook for economic growth, technological change, and investment in new renewable energy. The analysis suggests that important aspects of IEA’s scenarios are driven by critical exogenous assumptions. Moreover, vast resources and a competent research organization offer limited mitigation for outlook uncertainty, and IEA’s outlook should therefore be approached with the same caution as other global energy projections. |
| Keywords: | Energy economics; macroeconomics; modelling |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 Q47 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:stavef:2016_006&r=net |
| By: | Michal Ludwikowski (Nicolaus Copernicus University) |
| Abstract: | The issue of the rising number of unemployed young people affects numerous developed countries. The article seeks to discuss methods of addressing the problem of youth unemployment as well as the results of strategies applied in Germany, Austria and the United Kingdom. For Austria and Germany the key issue in combating youth unemployment was the emphasis on acquiring practical experience on early stage of education. In case of the UK however, it was a scheme of financial incentives for employers. |
| Keywords: | unemployment; youth; labour market; Germany; Austria |
| JEL: | J01 J21 J29 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2016:no27&r=net |
| By: | Elisa Guglielminetti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty has recently become a major concern for policymakers and academics. Spikes in uncertainty are often associated with recessions and have detrimental effects on the aggregate economy. This paper analyzes the effects of uncertainty on firms' hiring and investment decisions, both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, VAR estimates show the negative effects of uncertainty on economic performance and in particular on the labor market. Counterfactual experiments highlight the significant role of hiring decisions as a transmission channel for uncertainty. The empirical findings are rationalized through a DSGE model with search and matching frictions in the labor market and stochastic volatility. The model is able to replicate the observed co-movement among consumption, investment, output and labor market outcomes generated by an uncertainty shock. Price stickiness greatly amplifies the reaction of the economy. Simulations show that monetary policy can mitigate the adverse effects of uncertainty by adopting a strong anti-inflationary policy. |
| Keywords: | uncertainty shocks, labor market, search, DSGE model, business cycle, survey data |
| JEL: | E21 E22 E23 E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1068_16&r=net |
| By: | David Onyinyechi Agu; Evelyn Nwamaka; Ogbeide Osaretin |
| Abstract: | In order to implement clean energy transition programmes, the national and subnational governments in Nigeria will incur some cost. In the same way, failure to implement the policies will come with some costs. This paper therefore considers the fiscal policy implications of Nigerian governments. implementation of clean energy transition policies in the country. The analysis also reveals that the observed reluctance of Nigerian governments in implementing the policies is obviously unconnected with their dependence on oil revenues. The paper further presents the fiscal policy implications of Nigerian governments. inaction even when other countries implement their clean energy transition policies. |
| Keywords: | fossil fuel, clean energy, federal government, state governments, fiscal policies, fiscal shocks Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-031 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-031&r=net |
| By: | Kiran Sharma; Anirban Chakraborti |
| Abstract: | A brief overview of the models and data analyses of income, wealth, consumption distributions by the physicists, are presented here. It has been found empirically that the distributions of income and wealth possess fairly robust features, like the bulk of both the income and wealth distributions seem to reasonably fit both the log-normal and Gamma distributions, while the tail of the distribution fits well to a power law (as first observed by sociologist Pareto). We also present our recent studies of the unit-level expenditure on consumption across multiple countries and multiple years, where it was found that there exist invariant features of consumption distribution: the bulk is log-normally distributed, followed by a power law tail at the limit. The mechanisms leading to such inequalities and invariant features for the distributions of socio-economic variables are not well-understood. We also present some simple models from physics and demonstrate how they can be used to explain some of these findings and their consequences. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.06051&r=net |
| By: | Pedro Carneiro (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College London); Sokbae Lee (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel Wilhelm (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL) |
| Abstract: | In a randomized control trial, the precision of an average treatment e ffect estimator can be improved either by collecting data on additional individuals, or by collecting additional covariates that predict the outcome variable. We propose the use of pre-experimental data such as a census, or a household survey, to inform the choice of both the sample size and the covariates to be collected. Our procedure seeks to minimize the resulting average treatment e ect estimator's mean squared error, subject to the researcher's budget constraint. We rely on an orthogonal greedy algorithm that is conceptually simple, easy to implement (even when the number of potential covariates is very large), and does not require any tuning parameters. In two empirical applications, we show that our procedure can lead to substantial gains of up to 58%, either in terms of reductions in data collection costs or in terms of improvements in the precision of the treatment eff ect estimator, respectively. The original version of the working paper, posted on 01 April, 2016, is available here. |
| Keywords: | randomized control trials, big data, data collection, optimal surveydesign, orthogonal greedy algorithm, survey costs. |
| JEL: | C55 C81 |
| Date: | 2016–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:15/16&r=net |
| By: | Moreira, Marcelo J.; Mourão, Rafael; Moreira, Humberto |
| Abstract: | Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an approximately similar test. This test rejects the null hypothesis when the test statistic islarger than a critical value function (CVF) of the data. We illustrate this procedure when regressors are highly persistent, a case in which commonly-used simulation methods encounter dificulties controlling size uniformly. Our approach works satisfactorily, controls size, and yields a test which outperforms the two other known similar tests. |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:epgewp:778&r=net |
| By: | Kayis-Kumar, Ann |
| Abstract: | One of the most significant trends in the evolution of global tax systems has been the rise from relative obscurity of thin capitalisation rules, which are perceived as anti-avoidance rules which limit tax base erosion from cross-border interest deductions. However, over the same timeframe, innovations to financial instruments have challenged the traditional financial and legal distinctions between debt and equity, which in the cross-border setting has exposed the prevalence of economic inefficiencies in the design of the international tax system. This paper approaches the issue of thin capitalisation from a novel perspective by conceptualising the cross-border debt bias as the ‘disease’ and thin capitalisation as merely the ‘symptom’. Despite their prevalence, it is unclear whether thin capitalisation rules: (1) attain tax neutrality (specifically, do these rules mitigate the debt bias); (2) are effective in both theory and practice. This provides the basis to examine whether a cross-border manifestation of a fundamental reform could eliminate the need for existing thin capitalisation rules, which are presently a second-best solution to the tax-induced cross-border debt bias. Accordingly, this paper: (1) considers reforms traditionally designed to address the domestic debt bias; specifically, the allowance for corporate equity (ACE), comprehensive business income tax (CBIT), combined ACE-CBIT and allowance for corporate capital; (2) examines the literature and implementation experience of the ACE, the only one of these fundamental reforms which has been experimented with in practice, to consider whether it is effective in both theory and practice; (3) presents the possibility of extending the combined ACE-CBIT to the cross-border context as an alternative to thin capitalisation rules. |
| Keywords: | International tax law, Tax policy, Public economics, Thin capitalisation rules, Corporate taxation, Multinational debt shifting, Debt bias, Allowance for corporate equity, Economic rent tax |
| JEL: | F3 G3 K0 K00 K33 K34 |
| Date: | 2015–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72031&r=net |
| By: | Elizabeth Bucacos (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the Uruguayan economy’s vulnerability to foreign monetary policy in the last twenty years. The usual way of assessing monetary policy transmission effects - such as panel data analysis, correlation analysis and even case studies - have not offered much statistically significant evidence for Uruguayan economic growth. However, being a small open dollarized economy with a relatively less sophisticated asset market, it seems plausible that Uruguay may suffer from international monetary policy shocks. The challenge, then, is to unveil the channels through which those monetary shocks finally affect relevant Uruguayan variables. In this paper, factor augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models are used in two stages. In the first stage, the impact of foreign monetary policy is assessed on commodity prices, foreign output, and regional output. In the second one, the effects on real exchange rate, domestic assets (as housing prices) and on domestic output are analyzed. Este estudio analiza la vulnerabilidad de la economía uruguaya a los shocks de política monetaria externos en los últimos veinte años. La forma habitual de analizar los efectos de la transmisión de los shocks de política monetaria – tales como análisis de datos de panel, análisis de correlación e incluso estudio de casos – no han ofrecido mucha evidencia estadísticamente significativa con respecto a los efectos sobre el crecimiento económico en Uruguay. Sin embargo, siendo una pequeña economía abierta dolarizada con un mercado de activos relativamente poco sofisticado, parece razonable que Uruguay sufra los choques de política monetaria internacional. Entonces, el desafío es revelar los canales a través de los cuales esos choques finalmente afectan las variables económicas uruguayas relevantes. En este documento se utilizan modelos de factores aumentados autorregresivos (FAVAR) en dos etapas. Primero, se establece el impacto de la política monetaria externa sobre precios de commodites, producto externo y producto regional. En una segunda etapa, se analizan los efectos sobre el tipo de cambio real, activos domésticos (como el precio de la vivienda) y el producto doméstico. |
| Keywords: | tapering, emerging economies, housing prices, Uruguay, reversión, restricción cuantitativa en EEUU, economías emergentes, precios de vivienda |
| JEL: | E42 R31 E62 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bku:doctra:2015003&r=net |
| By: | Aedin Doris (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, Maynooth University.); Bruce Chapman (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the feasibility of various alternative potential student loan schemes for Ireland. Using National Employment Survey data for 2006, we model the life-cycle earnings distribution for Irish graduates. We then use these estimates to simulate the effects of alternative types of student loans, including mortgage-type (government guaranteed bank) loans and income-contingent loans of various designs, incorporating participation and migration patterns into the simulations. The results show that mortgage-type loans entail unsustainably high repayment rates for low income graduates. Through the specification of several alternative income-contingent loan schemes, it is demonstrated that this approach to higher education financing is feasible in terms of affordability for graduates and with respect to implied government subsidies. There are some important policy design issues to be addressed and we conclude with some recommendations for a future Irish scheme. |
| JEL: | I22 I28 H52 H81 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:may:mayecw:n271-16.pdf&r=net |
| By: | Wian Boonzaaier; Jarkko Harju; Tuomas Matikka; Jukka Pirttilä |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the effects of various tax schedule discontinuities on the behavior of small firms using high-quality and population-wide tax register data from South Africa. We use the bunching method to analyse how these discontinuities affect the firm-size distribution. We first examine how the value-added tax threshold affects the sales distribution of firms. We also study the effects of two separate corporate income tax rate kinks. We find sizable bunching at each of these thresholds. The elasticity estimates for the corporate tax kink points are large, ranging from 0.7 to 1.6, whereas the elasticity of the value added is below 0.1. We find some suggestive evidence that part of the response is driven by tax evasion. |
| Keywords: | developing countries, value-added tax, corporate tax, VAT threshold, corporate tax kink, bunching, small firms |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-036&r=net |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; Francesco Lippi; Juan Passadore |
| Abstract: | Yes, but only for large monetary shocks. In particular, we show that in a broad class of models where shocks have continuous paths, the propagation of a monetary impulse is independent of the nature of the sticky price friction when shocks are small. The propagation of large shocks instead depends on the nature of the friction: the impulse response of inflation to monetary shocks is independent of the shock size in time-dependent models, while it is non-linear in state-dependent models. We use data on exchange rate devaluations and inflation for a panel of countries over 1974-2014 to test for the presence of state dependent decision rules. We present some evidence of a non-linear effect of exchange rate changes on prices in a sample of flexible-exchange rate countries with low inflation. We discuss the dimensions in which this finding is robust and the ones in which it is not. |
| JEL: | E50 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22361&r=net |
| By: | Elisa Gamberoni (European Central Bank); Christine Gartner (European Central Bank); Claire Giordano (Bank of Italy); Paloma Lopez-Garcia (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the role of corruption in the business environment in explaining the efficiency of within-sector production factor allocation across firms in nine Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2003-2012. Using a conditional convergence model, we find evidence of a positive relationship between corruption growth and both labour and capital misallocation dynamics, once country framework conditions are controlled for: this link is larger the smaller the country, the lower the degree of political stability and civil liberties, and the weaker the quality of its regulations. As input misallocation is one of the determinants of productivity growth, we further show that the correlation between changes in corruption and TFP growth is indeed negative. Our results also hold when we tackle a possible omitted variable bias by instrumenting corruption with two instrumental variables (the percentage of women in Parliament and freedom of the press). In conclusion, targeted action against corruption in the CEE region would be efficiency-enhancing. |
| Keywords: | bribes, capital misallocation, labour misallocation, total factor productivity |
| JEL: | D24 D73 O47 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_331_16&r=net |
| By: | Lyubimov, I.L. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Perception of natural wealth as a curse, leading to the emergence of a variety of economic issues, from civil war and to reduce tech sector or the destruction of the institutions of power, is very common among both economists and the general public. While many countries endowed with natural resources stocks actually faced with serious economic and institutional problems, one can hardly speak about the negative impact on economic development resources of both stable laws. To change the potential of natural resources as a cause of economic failure, then we will talk in detail about how the success stories related to mining, and stories about the failures of the ownership of natural resources. |
| Keywords: | natural wealth, natural resources, economic issues |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2543&r=net |
| By: | Duffy, Sean; Naddeo, JJ; Owens, David; Smith, John |
| Abstract: | It is well-known that laboratory subjects often do not play mixed strategy equilibrium games according to the equilibrium predictions. In particular, subjects often mix with the incorrect proportions and their actions often exhibit serial correlation. However, little is known about the role of cognition in these observations. We conduct an experiment where subjects play a repeated hide and seek game against a computer opponent programmed to play either a strategy that can be exploited by the subject (a naive strategy) or designed to exploit suboptimal play of the subject (an exploitative strategy). The subjects play with either fewer available cognitive resources (under a high cognitive load) or with more available cognitive resources (under a low cognitive load). While we observe that subjects do not mix in the predicted proportions and their actions exhibit serial correlation, we do not find strong evidence these are related to their available cognitive resources. This suggests that the standard laboratory results on mixed strategies are not associated with the availability of cognitive resources. Surprisingly, we find evidence that subjects under a high load earn more than subjects under a low load. However, we also find that subjects under a low cognitive load exhibit a greater rate of increase in earnings across rounds than subjects under a high load. |
| Keywords: | bounded rationality, experimental economics, working memory load, cognition, learning, mixed strategies |
| JEL: | C72 C91 |
| Date: | 2016–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71878&r=net |
| By: | Garcia-Medina Cecilia; Jean-Francois Wen |
| Abstract: | We construct the ratio of the post-fisc to the pre-fisc transitory component of the variance of family incomes in Canada from 1993 and 2008. The ratio measures how much the tax and transfer system attenuates market income instability. It is shown that the ratio of variances is equivalent theoretically to the concept of residual income progression. The fiscal system became less stabilizing beginning in the late 1990s, especially for families headed by main earners with less than high school education. The trend is attributable to personal income tax reforms and reductions in transfers for lower income families. |
| Keywords: | Income Instability; Progressive Taxation; Employment Insurance |
| JEL: | H22 H53 J38 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2016-07&r=net |
| By: | Yanfei Kang; Rob J. Hyndman; Kate Smith-Miles |
| Abstract: | It is common practice to evaluate the strength of forecasting methods using collections of well-studied time series datasets, such as the M3 data. But how diverse are these time series, how challenging, and do they enable us to study the unique strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods? In this paper we propose a visualisation method for a collection of time series that enables a time series to be represented as a point in a 2-dimensional instance space. The effectiveness of different forecasting methods can be visualised easily across this space, and the diversity of the time series in an existing collection can be assessed. Noting that the M3 dataset is not as diverse as we would ideally like, this paper also proposes a method for generating new time series with controllable characteristics to fill in and spread out the instance space, making generalisations of forecasting method performance as robust as possible. |
| Keywords: | M3-Competition, time series visualisation, time series generation, forecasting algorithm comparison |
| JEL: | C52 C53 C55 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2016-10&r=net |
| By: | Alex Barrachina (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The effects of information-gathering activities on a basic entry model with asymmetric information are analyzed. In the basic entry game, an incumbent monopoly faces potential entry by one firm without knowing with certainty whether this potential entrant is weak or strong. If the entrant decides to enter, the monopoly must compete with him and decide whether to accommodate or to fight. To include information-gathering activities, it is considered that the monopoly has access to an Intelligence System (IS) of a certain precision (exogenous and common knowledge) that generates a noisy signal about the entrant's type. When the monopoly believes that the entrant is weak, the probability of market entry increases only for the relatively inaccurate precision of the IS and decreases for relatively accurate precision. If the monopoly is not sure about the entrant’s level of strength or considers him to be strong, the information-gathering activities either have no effect on market entry or decrease the probability of entry. Not only do these results suggest that to inform the entrant credibly about information-gathering activities can be considered as a monopoly’s entry deterrence strategy, but they also provide give an idea about when to allow or not allow monopoly’s information-gathering activities. |
| Keywords: | Entry Deterrence, Information-Gathering, Asymmetric Information, Credible Communication |
| JEL: | C72 D82 L10 L12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2016/09&r=net |
| By: | Andreou, Elena |
| Abstract: | Many empirical studies link mixed data frequency variables such as low frequency macroeconomic or Â…nancial variables with high frequency Â…financial indicatorsÂ’ volatilities, especially within a predictive regression model context. The objective of this paper is threefold: First, we relate the standard Least Squares (LS) regression model with high frequency volatility predictors, with the corresponding Mixed Data Sampling Nonlinear LS (MIDAS-NLS) regression model (Ghysels et al., 2005, 2006), and evaluate the properties of the regression estimators of these models. We also consider alternative high frequency volatility measures as well as various continuous time models using their corresponding relevant higher-order moments to further analyze the properties of these estimators. Second, we derive the relative MSE efficiency of the slope estimator in the standard LS and MIDAS regressions, we provide conditions for relative efficiency and present the numerical results for different continuous time models. Third, we extend the analysis of the bias of the slope estimator in standard LS regressions with alternative realized measures of risk such as the Realized Covariance, Realized Beta and the Realized Skewness when the true DGP is a MIDAS model. |
| Keywords: | bias; efficiency; high-frequency volatility estimators; MIDAS regression model |
| JEL: | C22 C53 G22 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11307&r=net |
| By: | Okullo, Samuel (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Reynes, F.; Hofkes, M. |
| Abstract: | The theory on the green paradox has focused primarily on the consumption of a clean substitute produced using a static technology. In reality, we observe the gradual accumulation of the clean substitute’s capacity, suggesting that supply decisions for the clean substitute and finite carbon resource should both be treated as dynamic. This paper shows that when climate policy is preannounced, and with simultaneous consumption of a finite carbon resource and a clean substitute, myopia in the supply of the latter leads to the green paradox. When clean substitute producers can accumulate capacity and are forward looking, the green paradox may or may not arise, however. In this setting, its occurrence depends on both the size of the discount rate and the remaining stock of carbon resource. These and other drivers of the green paradox are investigated in a multi-producer game-theoretic model calibrated to real-world global oil market data. The timing of mandating policy is shown to be the single most important variable for mitigating the green paradox. Moreover, for EU-2020 and US-2022 style biofuel mandating targets, a rather robust 0.3% decline in production is observed during the premandate phase, suggesting that concerns over the green paradox may be seriously overstated. |
| Keywords: | green paradox; climate change; peak oil; biofuel mandates; unconventional crude oil |
| JEL: | C61 C70 H25 H32 Q28 Q42 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:2ef0304e-8645-42f7-9146-765488467b09&r=net |
| By: | Ruiz-Castillo, Javier; Mora, Ricardo; Guinea-Martin, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We argue that gender segregation stems from sources beyond occupation, the traditional domain of study: women and men differ not only in their occupational allocation but also in their time involvement in paid work, in their decisions to participate in the labor market at all and in their retirement age. We pool 21 Labour Force Surveys for the United Kingdom to measure and compare these various forms of segregation (occupational, temporal and economic) over the 1993-2013 period (n = 1,815,482). The analysis relies on the Strong Group Decomposability property of the Mutual Information index to identify the evolution of segregation over the life course net of cohort and period effects. There are two main findings. First, over the life course, the evolution of gender segregation parallels the inverted U-shaped pattern of the employment rate. When workers are younger, measures of all concepts of segregation are small. Then, gender segregation increases due to a combination of economic and time-related components. After the prime childbearing years, gender segregation remains fairly stable for approximately 15 years, sustained by expanding occupational segregation; finally, in the later years, gender segregation decreases substantially. Second, gender segregation is consistently 20% higher than occupational segregation after the teenage years. However, as much as 44% of gender segregation at age 35 and 52% at age 64 would remain even if occupations were completely desegregated. These ages correspond to two key stages in the life course: career and family building on the one hand and retirement on the other. |
| Keywords: | segregation; retirement, segregation; parttime; occupations; Mutual Information index; life course; gender; employment |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:23223&r=net |
| By: | Collins, Matthew; Curtis, John |
| Abstract: | The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) operates the Better Energy Homes (BEH) grant scheme to incentivise residential energy efficient retrofits, an ongoing scheme which was implemented in 2009. This scheme provides a financial incentive for home owners to engage in energy efficient retrofits, provided the upgrades meet appropriate energy efficiency standards. This study analyses the BEH data, which is comprised of all applications from March 2009 to October 2015, in order to examine the extent to which applications are abandoned and the determinants thereof. We find that more complicated retrofits are more likely to be abandoned, with variation across certain retrofit measure combinations. We find lower probabilities of abandonment among certain obligated parties, who are energy retailers obliged by the State to reduce energy consumption in Ireland, while others possess greater likelihoods of abandonment, relative to private retrofits. We find that newer homes are less likely to abandon an application than older homes, as are applications made for apartments, relative to houses. Regional variations exist in abandonment, with rural households more likely to abandon than urban households. A seasonal trend in abandonment is also present, with higher likelihoods of abandonment among applications made during winter.ile-URL: http://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP532.pdf |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp533&r=net |
| By: | Sokolovska, Olena; Sokolovskyi, Dmytro |
| Abstract: | The article deals with problem of optimization of government behavior in trade policy decision-making in small open developing economy. Based on conceptual model of government behavior we define main elements of effective trade policy. We found both their conformity to certain economic framework and conditions of their changes with each other. The analysis of advantages and disadvantages of government patterns of trade behavior showed that in order to regulate the small open developing economy its government should provide policy, based on applying of tax instruments, notably, tariffs; non-tariff measures in such conditions are as auxiliary tools. Systemic non-tariff restrictions could be regarded as an effective tool for developed innovative economies. The originality of the paper consists in developing of model of efficient government behavior in trade policy decision-making depending on the framework of national economy; also both conditions of untimely changes of government behavior patterns and ineffective frameworks appeared as consequence of these changes, were defined. We provide an econometric analysis in order to determine whether commodity exports are sensitive to reduction or elimination of tariffs (as in the case of Ukrainian exports and EU import duties). This analysis showed that now in Ukrainian economy there are commodities which are both sensitive and resistant to tariff changes. |
| Keywords: | government behavior, trade policy, tariffs, econometric analysis |
| JEL: | C50 F13 H20 H30 |
| Date: | 2016–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71983&r=net |
| By: | Alexander Coad (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Nicola Grassano (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | Understanding causal relationships among key economic variables is crucial for policy makers, who wish to e.g. stimulate private R&D growth. To this end, we applied a technique recently imported from the Machine Learning community (Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) identified using Independent Components Analysis (ICA)) to a set of the world’s largest R&D investors. Our analysis highlights the key role of sales growth, rather than profits growth, in stimulating R&D growth. R&D growth appears at the end of the causal ordering of the growth process. Our results suggest that policies to increase private R&D would do better to target sales rather than profits. |
| Keywords: | R&D investment, firm growth, SVAR, sales growth, industrial dynamics |
| JEL: | L25 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201603&r=net |
| By: | Nicolò Bellanca (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Benedetto Rocchi (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa) |
| Abstract: | The quality of relationships among people is increasingly perceived as a crucial determinant of well-being. Despite this relevant shift, economic analysis is still deeply tied to an individualistic conception of people acting and living together. In this paper we will argue that to better understand the subjective and inter-subjective multiple dimensions of well-being, it is necessary to further deepen its conceptual framework to deal with its genuine relational essence. The forms of civic agriculture and short food supply chains that have emerged in the last decades provide an interesting case to highlight the limits of an individualistic conception of well-being. Within civic forms of agriculture, people follow pathways of personal change that affect the relational dimension of their lives, according to how they use money and spare time. At the same time, these personal pathways contribute to the emergence of rural economies and cultures as participatory or shared goods. |
| Keywords: | relational goods, shared goods, well-being, civic agriculture, commonality. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2016_09.rdf&r=net |
| By: | Marco Bianchetti; Davide Galli; Camilla Ricci; Angelo Salvatori; Marco Scaringi |
| Abstract: | We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series sensitive to the Brexit/Bremain scenario, representative of multiple asset classes. We found that equity and currency asset classes show no bubble signals, while rates, credit and real estate show super-exponential behaviour and instabilities typical of bubble regime. Our study suggests that, under the JLS model, equity and currency markets do not expect crashes or sharp rises following the referendum results. Instead, rates and credit markets consider the referendum a risky event, expecting either a Bremain scenario or a Brexit scenario edulcorated by central banks intervention. In the case of real estate, a crash is expected, but its relationship with the referendum results is unclear. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.06829&r=net |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice A; Nwachukwu, Jacinta C. |
| Abstract: | Purpose- With the recent financial crisis and reduction of foreign aid by donor countries, the aid-institutions debate is shifting to how aid instability affects governance in developing countries. We engage the policy debate by assessing the role of foreign aid instability on governance dynamics in fifty three African countries for the period 1996-2010. Design/methodology/approach- An autoregressive endogeneity-robust Generalized Methods of Moments is employed. Instabilities are measured in terms of standard errors and standard deviations. Three main aid indicators are used, namely: total aid, aid from multilateral donors and bilateral aid. Principal Component Analysis is used to bundle governance indicators, namely: political governance (voice & accountability and political stability/non violence), economic governance (regulation quality and government effectiveness), institutional governance (rule of law and corruption-control) and general governance (political, economic and institutional governance). Findings- Our findings show that foreign aid instability increases governance standards, especially political and general governance. Practical implications- In the presence of foreign aid instability, governments could be constrained to improve governance standards in exchange for, or anticipation of greater dependence on local tax revenues. Moreover, bundling governance indicators improves insights into how macroeconomic variables affect governance. This is essentially because, while aid instability improves general governance, for the most part it is not consistently for economic and institutional governance. Originality/value- The paper has contributed to the aid-institutions’ literature by examining how aid instabilities affect an aggregate index of governance dynamics in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Instability; Foreign aid; Governance; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | C53 F35 F47 O11 O55 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71783&r=net |
| By: | Felipe Berrutti (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses differences-in-differences to analyze the impact of a program which grants place-based subsidies to residential construction (Ley de Vivienda de Interés Social) on the location of housing developments in the city of Montevideo, Uruguay using administrative municipal data over the period 2007-2014. The results reveal that the policy had a sizable and statistically significant impact on the location of residential construction. The relative effect of the policy on treated areas is over 200% of the mean for square meters built and approximately 50% of the mean for the number of housing starts. Furthermore, the study shows that the policy increased the mean square meters of residential projects in treated zones. This study suggests that the Ley de Vivienda de Interés Social promoted a relocation process of residential construction towards the treated areas while simultaneously increasing the average size of housing projects in said areas. |
| Keywords: | subsidies, location, housing market, Uruguay |
| JEL: | D04 H25 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:tpaper:die-02-16&r=net |
| By: | Research and Statistics Department (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | In October 2013, the Bank of Japan (the Research and Statistics Department, which is the section responsible for compiling and publishing statistics) announced for public consultation its project on revising the Flow of Funds Accounts in line with the 2008SNA recommendations1. In response, the Bank received valuable comments and suggestions, and after taking them into account, the Bank presented the final draft in June 20142. Since then, the Bank had been finalizing details of the revised Flow of Funds Accounts (based on 2008SNA, hereinafter referred to as the "New Flow of Funds Accounts"). The New Flow of Funds Accounts was released on March 25, 2016. This was the first substantial revision since 1999 (revision based on 1993SNA, hereinafter referred to as the "Former Flow of Funds Accounts"). This paper provides details of the major changes resulting from the current revision of the Flow of Funds Accounts and also shows the quantitative impact of the revision on stocks and transaction flows. The overview of the revision, including detailed items, is summarized in Section 11. |
| Date: | 2016–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojron:ron160331a&r=net |
| By: | Fernando Alvarez (University of Chicago and NBER); Francesco Lippi (University of Sassari, EIEF and CEPR); Juan Passadore (EIEF) |
| Abstract: | Yes, but only for large monetary shocks. In particular, we show that in a broad class of models where shocks have continuous paths, the propagation of a monetary impulse is independent of the nature of the sticky price friction when shocks are small. The propagation of large shocks instead depends on the nature of the friction: the impulse response of inflation to monetary shocks is independent of the shock size in time-dependent models, while it is non-linear in state-dependent models. We use data on exchange rate devaluations and inflation for a panel of countries over 1974-2014 to test for the presence of state dependent decision rules. We present some evidence of a non-linear effect of exchange rate changes on prices in a sample of flexible-exchange rate countries with low inflation. We discuss the dimensions in which this finding is robust and the ones in which it is not. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eie:wpaper:1610&r=net |
| By: | Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Graph of the month Exports of machinery and transport equipment (SITC 7) in total exports, in % (p. 1) Opinion corner New governments in Poland and Romania, and related expected changes (by Gábor Hunya and Leon Podkaminer; pp. 2-5) Trade competitiveness of Austrian and neighbouring regions (by Roman Römisch; pp. 6-12) Russia’s grand trade collapse (by Peter Havlik; pp. 13-18) Challenges of Eurasian economic integration (by Amat Adarov; pp. 19-24) Recommended reading (p. 25) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 26-47) |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, trade balance, RCA, international trade, competitiveness, exchange rate, trade balance, Eurasian Economic Union, integration, customs union, Poland, Romania, elections, economic policy |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2015-12&r=net |
| By: | G. Marandola; R. Mossucca |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the stock market response to corporate downgrades by S&P, Moody's and Fitch between 1999 and 2011. The empirical evidence shows that cumulative abnormal returns around downgrades become significantly smaller (in absolute value) after the release in 2003 of the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Report on credit rating agencies. The Report addresses concerns related to the agencies and marks a turning point in the attitude of U.S. regulators towards a more critical approach. This has a strong impact on investors that respond by reacting less to downgrades. |
| JEL: | G14 G24 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1066&r=net |
| By: | Buzurukov, Bilol; Lee, Byeong Wan |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a comparative analysis of forced international migration between two historical periods: 1969-1990 representing the Cold War era, and 1991-2012, the post-Cold War era. The determinants of refugee migration over the two periods are assessed and compared using a panel data analysis for a sample of 125 countries. In order to control for unobserved country-specific effects and the joint endogeneity of the explanatory variables, the Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) estimator is used. Overall, the results suggest that significant changes have taken place with both the set of explanatory variables and their individual impact on refugee migration over time. Also noteworthy is the significance of the two flight facilitators - the Internet and the telecommunication devices - included in the model to explain the refugee migration dynamics during the post-Cold War period. |
| Keywords: | Forced Migration,War and Conflicts,Flight Facilitators,GMM Dynamic Panel Data Analysis |
| JEL: | F22 D74 L86 L96 C23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201623&r=net |
| By: | Jorge Díaz-Lanchas (Department of Economic Analysis: Economic Theory. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and Lawrence R. Klein Institute/CEPREDE. 28049 Cantoblanco. Madrid); Carlos Llano (Department of Economic Analysis: Economic Theory. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and Lawrence R. Klein Institute/CEPREDE. 28049 Cantoblanco. Madrid); Asier Minondo (Corresponding author. Deusto Business School, University of Deusto, Camino de Mundaiz 50, 20012 Donostia - San Sebastian (Spain). Research afiliate of Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales.); Francisco Requena (Department of Economic Structure, University of Valencia, Avda. dels Tarongers s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain).) |
| Abstract: | Do large and small cities exhibit different patterns of export specialization? Using highly disaggregated product-level trade data for Brazilian cities in year 2013, we find that more populated urban areas export proportionately more complex and skill-intensive goods than less populated urban areas. We also show that Brazilian urban areas that have increased more in population have also augmented more than proportionately the exports of complex and skill-intensive goods. Our empirical findings support recent models which argue that large cities attract more skilled workers and exhibit a wide range of capabilities, providing them a comparative advantage in skill-intensive and complex goods. |
| Keywords: | urban areas, exports, complexity, skills, comparative advantage, Brazil |
| JEL: | F11 F14 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eec:wpaper:1604&r=net |
| By: | Ang, Frederic; Jan Kerstens, Pieter |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a nonparametric measure of coordination Luenberger productivity growth where the subprocesses are explicitly modelled in the production technology. The coordination productivity indicator is decomposed into a coordination technical inefficiency change component and a coordination technical change component. This decomposition allows to assess how reallocation impacts the different sources of productivity growth. The empirical application focusses on a large panel of English and Welsh farms over the period 2007−2013. The results show that coordination inefficiency significantly increases with the proportion of resources allocated to livestock production in economic and statistical terms. Coordination inefficient farms should generally allocate more land to crop production. Depending on the region, the average coordination Luenberger productivity growth ranges from -9.7 percent to 15.9 percent per year. It is driven by coordination technical change rather than coordination inefficiency change. |
| Keywords: | directional distance function, productivity indicator, coordination inefficiency, mixed farms, Agricultural and Food Policy, D22, D24, Q12, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236337&r=net |
| By: | Robert Fernholz |
| Abstract: | For a functionally generated portfolio, there is a natural decomposition of the relative log-return into the log-change in the generating function and a drift process. In this note, this decomposition is extended to arbitrary stock portfolios by an application of Fisk-Stratonovich integration. With the extended methodology, the generating function is represented by a structural process, and the drift process is subsumed into a trading process that measures the profit and loss to the portfolio from trading. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.05877&r=net |
| By: | Kevin J, Fox. (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW); Iqbal A. Syed (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, UNSW) |
| Abstract: | Consumers are very responsive to sales, yet statistical agency practice typically under-weights sale prices in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Evidence is lacking on the impact on the representativeness of prices included in the CPI and on estimates of inflation. We use high-frequency scanner data from US supermarkets to explore if there is any systematic directional impact. The key finding is that the exclusion of sales prices introduces a systematic effect. We also find that even when sales prices are included they are systematically under-weighted, but the under-weighting remains fairly stable over time so that inflation measurement is not significantly affected. In addition, we find evidence that the typical practice of using data from an incomplete period in constructing unit values can lead to an upward bias in the resulting price index. |
| Keywords: | cost-of-living, CPI, regular prices, retail sales, RYGEKS, RYCCD, scanner data |
| JEL: | C43 E31 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:swe:wpaper:2016-05&r=net |
| By: | Korytin, A.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shatalova, Svetlana Sergeevna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The report presents the results of the search and analysis of the methods of the resident property tax development as well as the recommendations on the practical implementation of the property tax world experience in Russia. This work profoundly research the international experience in the property tax domain and analyze possible consequences of its adaptation based on the wide range of national datasets. |
| Keywords: | property tax development, Russia |
| Date: | 2016–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2331&r=net |
| By: | Gunakar Bhatta, Ph.D. (Nepal Rastra Bank) |
| Abstract: | Bank equity plays an important role in the credit allocation process of financial intermediaries. Financial institutions with higher level of equity are in better position to absorb losses and repay deposits in a timely manner. This relates to the bank capital channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism stating that banks having sound financial health could contribute significantly in transmitting monetary impulses to the real sector. Considering the important role that bank equity plays in shaping the risk taking behavior of financial intermediaries, central banks set the minimum paid-up capital requirement for banks and financial institutions. Though this regulatory requirement is aimed at ensuring the smooth financial intermediation, this could become costlier in extending loans particularly in the times of business cycle fluctuations. A higher capital requirement might also constrain the lending capacity of a bank. Given the conflicting theoretical assumptions on the role of equity capital on financial stability and economic growth, this paper develops a theoretical model examining the relationship between bank equity and its effect on bank-borrower behavior. The theoretical model recommends that higher level of bank equity might be helpful in ensuring financial stability by altering the behavior of the bank and borrower. |
| Keywords: | Bank, Credit, Capital, Regulation, Stability |
| JEL: | E51 G00 G21 G32 G38 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nrb:wpaper:nrbwp201530&r=net |
| By: | Halkos, George; Polemis, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the efficiency of the power generation sector in the USA by using Window Data Envelopment Analysis (W-DEA). We integrate radial and non-radial efficiency measurements in DEA using the hybrid measure while we extend the proposed model by considering inputs and good and bad outputs as separable and non separable. Then in the second stage analysis we perform various econometric techniques (parametric and non-parametric) in order to model the relationship between the calculated environmental efficiencies and economic growth in attaining sustainability. Our empirical findings indicate an N-shape relationship between environmental efficiency and regional economic growth in the case of global and total pollutants but an inverted N-shape in the case of assessing local pollutants and using the appropriate dynamic specification. This implies that attention is required when considering local and global pollutants and the extracted environmental efficiencies. |
| Keywords: | Energy; Efficiency; Sustainability; Window DEA; Electricity; EKC hypothesis; USA. |
| JEL: | C23 C67 O13 Q01 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72132&r=net |
| By: | Gerling, Michael; Lawson, Linda; Weaber, Jillayne; Dotts, Alan; Vardeman, Andrew; Wilson, Eric |
| Abstract: | The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) surveys farmers and ranchers across the United States and Puerto Rico in order to estimate crop production and number of livestock, to assess production practices, and to identify economic trends. The June Agricultural Survey (JAS) is an annual survey that provides information on U.S. crops, livestock, grain storage capacity, and number, type and size of farms. The JAS is comprised of two components, the List Survey and the Area Survey. The List Survey is comprised of agricultural operations known to NASS. The Area Survey is comprised of designated land areas known as segments and is utilized in measuring the incompleteness of the List. This study is focused on the Area portion, which will be abbreviated as JAS. The JAS sample is comprised of nearly 11,000 designated land areas known as segments. A typical segment is about one square mile -- equivalent to 640 acres. Each segment is outlined on an aerial photo (typically 2’ by 2’ in size) and provided to NASS’s field interviewers. Field interviewers visit these segments and identify the owners/operators of all land within the segment. Land is then categorized as agricultural or non-agricultural. For land where agricultural activity is occurring, a separate paper questionnaire is completed for each agricultural operation operating land within the segment. A team composed of staff from NASS and Iowa State University Center for Survey Statistics and Methodology developed a Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) instrument to conduct the JAS aerial imagery portion and collect field level information. Also, the team was tasked with testing field enumeration of grid segments (a new type of segment) that could make the JAS sample preparation process more efficient. The JAS-CAPI instrument was field tested in Pennsylvania, Indiana and Washington. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, CAPI, Data Collection, GIS, Area Frame Survey, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:unassr:234386&r=net |
| By: | Hałaj, Grzegorz |
| Abstract: | Theoretically optimal responses of banks to various liquidity and solvency shocks are modelled. The proposed framework is based on a risk-adjusted return portfolio choice in multiple periods subject to the default risk related either to liquidity or solvency problems. Performance of the model and sensitivity of optimal balance sheet structures to some key parameters of the model are illustrated in a specific calibrated setup. The results of the simulations shed light on the effectiveness of the liquidity and solvency regulation. The flexible implementation of the model and its semi-analytical solvability allows for various easy applications of the framework for the macro-prudential policy analysis. JEL Classification: G11, G21, C61 |
| Keywords: | asset structure, banking, optimal portfolio |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161896&r=net |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana |
| Abstract: | Based on opening up the higher education system to Private sectors in India, the competition between institutions for quality education became primary issue of discussion to attract more students to their courses. Innovation in Student-centric learning is one of the basic requirements to attract interested students to the institution. In this context, the institutions of higher education in India are in need of an infusion of quality and clarity on the approach of building world-class educational institutions. In this paper, we have discussed how co-curricular and extra-curricular innovations helped higher education top business schools in India by identifying the innovations made by top business schools in their admission process, course design, course delivery, course schedule, course pedagogy, and examination system. The study is based on collecting the information from top ten old Business schools of IIM category announced by NIRF, MHRD, for the year 2013-15 and some top private business schools. The effectiveness of these innovations is analysed and compared using a self-designed curriculum analysis framework. |
| Keywords: | Student centric curriculum, Student centric learning, Innovations in higher education teaching |
| JEL: | I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71742&r=net |
| By: | Raoufina, Karine (National Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, Bayesian VAR models are used to forecast employment growth in Sweden. Using quarterly data from 1996 to 2015, we conduct an out-of-sample forecast exercise. Results indicate that the forecasting performance at short horizons can be improved when survey data is included, such as employment expectations in the business sector and forward-looking variables from the trade sector. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR model; employment forecasting |
| JEL: | C11 E24 |
| Date: | 2016–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0144&r=net |
| By: | Volovik, Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | At the present time in Russia created 30 SEZ. In addition, in accordance with special federal laws functioning special economic zone in the Kaliningrad region in Magadan region, in the Crimea, the possibility of the use of the customs procedure of free customs zone in the areas of advanced development. Preparing a bill on the introduction of free warehouses, the creation of regional special economic zones. This diversity of organizational forms enables us to provide state support for a wide range of economic subjects. However, when assessing the effectiveness of the SEZ on the specific types of functioning of the Accounts Chamber in late 2013 it noted that conventionally can be regarded as effective only to the activities of SEZ and technology development. Tools specific government support measures within the individual areas are gaining popularity. At the same time, under the conditions of the Eurasian Economic Union regulation of SEZ creation, management, use of certain types of state support is governed by Union law. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, special economic zones |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2546&r=net |
| By: | German-Soto, Vicente |
| Abstract: | This work considers the Euclidean distance concept to assess the evolution of regional disparities from aggregate data, such as for example, the per capita output. The vector space concept, as a measure of inequality, presents interesting properties: it tends to zero when the distances are reduced, is equal to zero in the hypothetical case of absolute equality and considers the contribution of each element to the joint inequality. The exercise generates an individual inequality index for the Mexican states along 1940-2010 that may be attractive in many respects, for example, in methodologies testing stochastic convergence, in regional economic growth, to determine the effectiveness of policies aimed to reduce the regional differences, among others. |
| Keywords: | regional income inequality; Euclidian distance; data analysis; development index; per capita product |
| JEL: | C82 O11 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71736&r=net |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Bonn, Germany; Economic Research Forum (ERF) Cairo, Egypt); Deniz Karaoğlan (Visiting Scholar, Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Health Behaviors, Education, Instrumental Variable Estimation |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1606&r=net |
| By: | Dirk Drechsel (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Stefan Neuwirth (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data. We compare our approach to different filtering techniques and show that our proposed filter outperforms various commonly used filtering techniques in terms of extracting the more relevant signal of the indicator series for forecasting. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, construction, Switzerland, Bayesian, mixed data frequencies |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:16-407&r=net |
| By: | Bachelet, Maria (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit); Becchetti, Leonardo (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit); Pisani, Fabio (Associazione Italiana per la Cultura della Cooperazione e del Non Profit) |
| Abstract: | Eudaimonic happiness (measured in terms of sense of life) is a relatively unexplored subjective wellbeing indicator. The empirical findings presented in this paper show that it has a significant and quantitatively remarkable correlation with the future insurgence of some chronic diseases and the reduction of most functionalities in the ageing population. These results document that eudaimonic happiness is a relevant leading indicator of future health outcomes and expenditure and that its impact is independent from that of the traditional life satisfaction measure. |
| Keywords: | eudaimonic satisfaction; health outcomes; functionalities; life satisfaction |
| JEL: | I12 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:aiccon:2016_150&r=net |
| By: | Hamidi Sahneh, Mehdi |
| Abstract: | Non-fundamentalness arises when observed variables do not contain enough information to recover structural shocks. This paper propose a new test to empirically detect non-fundamentalness, which is robust to the conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form, does not need information outside of the specified model and could be accomplished with a standard F-test. A Monte Carlo study based on a DSGE model is conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the test. I apply the proposed test to the U.S. quarterly data to identify the dynamic effects of supply and demand disturbances on real GNP and unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Non-Fundamentalness; Invertibility; Vector Autoregressive. |
| JEL: | C32 C5 E3 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71924&r=net |
| By: | Ragna Alstadheim (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway)); Øistein Røisland (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway)) |
| Abstract: | Monetary policy makers often seem to have preferences for a stable interest rate, in addition to stable in?ation and output. In this paper we investigate the implications of having an interest rate level term in the loss function when the policymaker lacks commitment technology. We show that preferences for interest rate stability may lead to equilibrium indeterminacy. But even when determinacy is achieved, such preferences can become self-defeating, in the meaning of generating a less stable interest rate than in the case without preferences for interest rate stability. Aiming to stabilize the real interest rate instead of the nominal rate is more robust, as it always gives determinacy and also tends to give a more stable nominal interest rate than when the policymaker aims to stabilize the nominal rate. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, Discretion, Interest rate stability |
| JEL: | E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bno:worpap:2016_08&r=net |
| By: | Deryugin, A.N. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Arlashkin. Igor Yurievich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Proka, K.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The current Russian system of federal intergovernmental subsidies to regions is ineffective. The paper presents the results of a survey of the rules on providing 78 subsidies, as well as analysis of the budgetary execution of subsidies. In addition, a comparative analysis of priorities, co-financed through subsidies, has been carried out and cross-financed priorities have been identified. |
| Keywords: | federal intergovernmental subsidies, regions, effectiveness |
| Date: | 2016–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2333&r=net |
| By: | Heise, Arne |
| Abstract: | The economic science has - lamented by some, applauded by others - turned into a monistic discipline. In this short research note, a socio-economic answer to the question of why this happened is provided by combining an economic approach to the market for economic ideas with a sociological approach of a scientific (power) field. |
| Keywords: | Pluralism,Monism,Standardization,Regulation |
| JEL: | B59 D43 I23 L15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:52&r=net |
| By: | Peter Reusens; Christophe Croux |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the importance of different sovereign credit rating determinants over time, using a sample of 90 countries for the years 2002-2015. Applying the composite marginal likelihood approach, we estimate a multi-year ordered probit model for each of the three major credit rating agencies. After the start of the European debt crisis in 2009, the importance of the financial balance, the economic development and the external debt increased substantially and the effect of Eurozone membership switched from positive to negative. In addition, GDP growth gained a lot of importance for highly indebted sovereigns and government debt became much more important for countries with a low GDP growth rate. These findings provide empirical evidence that the credit rating agencies changed their sovereign credit rating assessment after the start of the European debt crisis. |
| Keywords: | Composite marginal likelihood, Credit rating agencies, European debt crisis, Multi-year ordered probit model, Sovereign credit rating determinants |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:kbiper:540395&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | This report examines the effects of investments in Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) on i) total labour demand; ii) labour demand by skill level; and iii) labour demand by industry in selected OECD countries over the period 1990-2012. ICT investments are estimated to have raised total labour demand in most countries over the period 1990-2007 but to have reduced it after 2007. In the latter period, the decrease in total labour demand has been accompanied by polarisation in favour of high and low skills and against medium skills. Yet, the effects on both total labour demand and polarisation are estimated to disappear in the long run. These changes have occurred through a process of labour reallocation across industries, away from manufacturing and towards some services, including care, culture and recreation. |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stiaab:259-en&r=net |
| By: | Rambol Management Consulting and Europe Economics Research |
| Abstract: | Almost 99% of all intra-EU movements of excise duty goods take place under suspension of excise duty. Annually, this amounts to approximately 3.5 million individual movements of energy, alcohol and tobacco products with a total financial value of EUR 270 billion and associated excise duty of EUR 90 billion. By setting common rules under which excise goods can move across borders before being subject to payment of excise duty or leaving the EU customs territory, Directive 2008/118/EC and the implementing rules surrounding it aim to balance the need for a fully functioning and efficient EU internal market with the monitoring and control measures required for ensuring the proper collection of excise duty – a major source of revenue for the Member States. This study, commissioned by the European Commission and performed by Ramboll, has analysed an array of qualitative and quantitative data and concluded that the EU rules have indeed achieved the objectives of simplifying and modernising excise procedures, making a strong contribution towards the proper functioning of the internal market, improving the control of traders and consignments, and providing administrations with appropriate prior information to facilitate timely, targeted and selective controls. |
| Keywords: | excise duty, intra-Community trade, tax system, tax harmonisation, free movement of goods, tobacco, alcoholic beverage, electrical energy |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tax:taxstu:0064&r=net |
| By: | Bart Leten; Rene Belderbos; Bart Van Looy |
| Abstract: | Entry and success in new technology domains (NTDs) is essential for firms’ long-term performance. We argue that firms' choices to enter NTDs and their subsequent performance in these domains are not only governed by firm–level factors but also by environmental characteristics. Entry is encouraged by the richness of opportunities for technology development, while technology competition by incumbent firms discourages entry and render entries that do take place less successful. Firms are expected to be positioned heterogeneously to recognize and capitalize on technological opportunities, depending on the presence of a related technology base. We find qualified support for these conjectures in a longitudinal analysis of entry and technological performance in NTDs by 176 R&D intensive firms. While opportunity rich technology environments attract entries by firms even if these NTDs are distal from firms’ existing technologies, firms require related technological expertise in order to exploit technological opportunities post-entry. |
| Keywords: | Competition, entry, innovation, relatedness, technological opportunities, technology search |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:msiper:540570&r=net |
| By: | Jamal Ibrahim Haidar |
| Abstract: | What is the current state of sovereign credit risk across the Eurozone? Does the recent fiscal crisis extend to other (non-Eurozone) countries? Is Greece the centre of the problem? How did the current fiscal crisis in the Euro area start? Who is behind it? How can it evolve? How can it be addressed? And, is a fiscally challenged country likely to want to leave the Eurozone? This article addresses these questions, argues that a fiscally weak country is better off in the Eurozone than outside it, and finds that a feasible policy tool can be a bailout associated with tough fiscal conditionality. It also shows that sovereign credit risk adjustment in the Eurozone can happen, using various measures, but not without ?fiscal pain?. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:407736&r=net |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana; Aithal, Shubhrajyotsna |
| Abstract: | The applications of nanotechnology in different identified areas provide lots of business opportunities. It includes Food, Medicine, Cleaner water, Better quality air, Electronics, Fuel Cells, Solar Cells, Batteries, Space Travels, Chemical sensors, Sporting goods, Fabrics, Cleaning products, Energy, Environment, Health, and Life span increase. The paper covers the applications, and benefits of nanotechnology innovations in different industries, possible business opportunities for new nanotechnology based products and services due to challenges for human prosperity on earth, and the global strategy on nanotechnology business with an expected time scale and future possibilities of nanotechnology innovations based on products and services in the field and the magic (like science fictions) going to happen in human life. In this paper, important nanotechnology features and their usage in industry, various products and services based on nanotechnology innovations and Business Strategy for them are identified. Applications & benefits of NT in Agriculture, Food packing & Clean water, in Renewable Energy & Storage, and in Medicine are discussed. Various Business Opportunities for New Nanotechnology based Products and Services, Developing a global strategy for Nanotechnology Business including PEST analysis model and ABCD analysing framework. Finally, some of the Future possibilities of nanotechnology innovations are mentioned and discussed. |
| Keywords: | Nanotechnology applications, Business based on Nanotechnology products & services, Global strategies to be used in Nanotechnology business. |
| JEL: | M1 M10 M2 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71766&r=net |
| By: | Cihak,Martin; Mare,Davide Salvatore; Melecky,Martin |
| Abstract: | Policy makers and regulators have devoted much effort to reforms aimed at improving financial stability in response to lessons from the 2007-09 crisis. At the same time, much effort has also been directed to promoting greater financial inclusion as an enabler of equal opportunity. To some extent, these endeavors have been exerted in silos, neglecting the possibility that financial inclusion and financial stability could be significantly intertwined, positively or negatively. If there are synergies or trade-offs between inclusion and stability, policy decisions must be informed, and the policy setting, design, and implementation adjusted accordingly. This paper (i) discusses the relationship between financial inclusion and stability, (ii) illustrates empirically interactions between the two financial sector outcomes, and (iii) outlines policy challenges stemming from these interactions. |
| Keywords: | Financial Literacy,Banks&Banking Reform,Access to Finance,Emerging Markets,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7722&r=net |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The Port of Koper is the single national port of Slovenia and has been growing fast in recent years. It is expected that the existing rail link to and from the port will reach capacity in a few years. A new additional track, involving a tunnel on a separate alignment, has been proposed as a solution. The ITF was asked to perform a broad risk analysis of the project and investigate options for the delivery of the project through a PPP. Within this broad scope the ITF addressed several questions: would the potential for growing traffic at the port justify added capacity; what are the options for increasing capacity on the existing track to buy time; is the cost of the new rail link adequately estimated; what would be the best way to enable private participation in the project? |
| Date: | 2015–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:15-en&r=net |
| By: | Ito, Seiro |
| Abstract: | In Montiel Olea and Strzalecki (2014), authors have axiomatically developed an algorithm to infer the parameters of beta-delta model of cognitive bias (present and future biases). While this is extremely useful, it allows the implied beta to become very large when the response is impatient in the future choices relative to present choices, i.e., when there is a strong future bias. I modify the model to further exponentiate the functional form to get more reasonable beta values. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Consumers, Psychology, Discount factor, Experimental method |
| JEL: | C91 D99 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper605&r=net |
| By: | David Newbery |
| Abstract: | Britain considers the energy-only EU Target Electricity Model (TEM) wanting in delivering the trilemma of reliability, sustainability and affordability and argues that a capacity auction with long-term contracts for new entrants is the least-cost solution compared to relying on expectations of future prices to deliver adequate generation and demand side response. The Energy Union argues against feed-in tariffs (FiTs) for renewables, pressing for premium FiTs (pFiTs), just as GB has abandoned PFiTs in favour of FiTs. This paper draws on the GB experience of Electricity Market Reform before and after the 2015 change of government, to highlight promising resolutions of the energy trilemma, and the problems that have arisen between the diagnosis of the problem and the delivery of solutions. It sets out the theory and practice of delivering capacity, energy and quality of supply, gives a brief history of GB electricity from the CEGB to its current unbundled, liberalized and privatized structure. That sheds light on the trilemma problem and discusses possible solutions. The island of Ireland Single Electricity Market reforms illustrate the problem and possible answer of how best to deliver quality of service with high intermittency. |
| Keywords: | Reliability, sustainability and affordability, capacity auctions, contract design, renewables |
| JEL: | D47 H23 L94 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1634&r=net |
| By: | Halim, Asyraf Abdul; Ariff, Muhammad; Masih, A. Mansur M. |
| Abstract: | The numerous financial crises in the 20th and 21st century demonstrate the role of excessive credit as the main instigator of financial crises. Could this excessive credit be natural byproducts of lingering economic ailments such as, income inequality, property bubbles and persistent current account imbalances? This study attempts to answer this question by applying the Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDVC) and dynamic GMM estimations based on the data of ten countries from the year 2004 to 2012. Whilst past literature have investigated the effect of income inequality, dominant real estate sector and current account imbalances on excessive credit separately, this study extends the literature by examining the impact of all three variables on excessive credit aggregately. Our findings tend to indicate that there do exist a positive relationship between all three variables and excessive credit. However, we found that only income inequality and the real estate sector contribute significantly to excessive credit but current account imbalances only marginally do so. We also discovered that the contribution to excessive credit by the banking sector is just about twice the amount of all three variables combined. Our results serve as evidence for policymakers interested in reducing excessive credit by controlling all three variables as well as the banking sector. |
| Keywords: | Excessive Credit, Inequality, Real Estate, Current Account Imbalances, Credit-to- GDP Gap. |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72093&r=net |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana; Acharya, Radhakrishna |
| Abstract: | A business strategy is the means by which it sets out to achieve its desired goal. A business strategy is concerned with major resource issues e.g. raising the finance to build a new factory or plant. Strategies are also concerned with deciding on what products to allocate major resources or ensure a win in a given challenge. In this paper, we have discussed various strategic management models under the broad headings of generic strategies, competitive/red ocean strategies, monopoly/blue ocean strategies, sustainability/green ocean strategies, unethical/black ocean strategies and combined/white ocean strategies, their bases in Indian epics like Ramayana and Mahabharata. The strategies used in Indian epics as examples for various modern strategies are analysed and their instances and implementations are discussed. Finally, based on the analysis of all strategies, it is concluded that white ocean mixed strategy can be accepted as a global strategy for the winners. Using PEST analysis, the organizational global strategy can be correlated with White ocean mixed strategy as optimum strategy, to make an organization to be sustainable in global business. |
| Keywords: | Strategic Management models, Strategy in Indian philosophy. |
| JEL: | M10 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71771&r=net |
| By: | Carla Guerriero (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); John Cairns (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine); Fabrizio Bianchi (IFC CNR Pisa); Liliana Cori (IFC CNR Pisa) |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of including children’s preferences in the valuation of their own health benefits no study investigated the ability of children to understand willingness to pay questions. Using a contingent valuation study we elicit children’s and parents’ willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce children’s risk of an asthma attack. Our results suggest that children are able to understand and value their own health risk reductions and their ability to do so improves with age. Child age was found to be inversely related to parents’ and children’s WTP. The results also suggest that non-paternal altruism is predictive of children’s WTP. For parents, care for their own-health, was found to be inversely related with their WTP for children’s risk reductions. Comparison of parents’ vs. children WTP suggest that parents are willing to sacrifice for their child’s health risk reduction an amount that is approximately twice the size of their children. The analysis of matched pairs of parents and children suggest that there are within-household similarities as the child’s WTP is positively related to parents’ WTP. |
| Keywords: | willingness to pay, contingent valuation, children’s preferences, children’s rationality |
| Date: | 2016–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:448&r=net |
| By: | David Csercsik (Pázmány Péter Catholic University - Faculty of Information Technology); Hubert Janos Kiss (Institute of Economics - Momentum (LD-004/2010) Game Theory Research Group Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Eötvös Loránd University - Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We propose a discrete time probabilistic model of depositor behavior which takes into account the information flow among depositors. In each time period each depositors’ current state is determined in a stochastic way, based on its previous state, the state of other connected depositors and the strategy of the bank. The bank offers payment to impatient depositors who accept or decline them with certain probability, depending on the offered amount. The connections between depositors affect the evolution of the state trajectory as well: the more other connected depositors demand money from the bank, the larger is the probability that the depositor turns also impatient. Our principal aim is to see how are the optimal offers of the bank if it wants to keep the expected chance of a bank run under a certain level and minimize its expected payments, while taking into account the connection structure of the depositors. We show that in the case of the proposed model this question results in a nonlinear optimization problem with nonlinear constraints, and that the method is capable of accounting for time-varying resource limits of the bank. Optimal offers increase a) in the degree of the depositor; b) in the probability of being hit by a liquidity shock, and c) the effect of a neighboring impatient depositor. |
| Keywords: | Bank runs, Markov chains, Network, Optimization |
| JEL: | C61 C63 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:1609&r=net |
| By: | Federico M Bandi (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Valentina Corradi (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Daniel Wilhelm (Institute for Fiscal Studies and cemmap and UCL) |
| Abstract: | Cross-validation is the most common data-driven procedure for choosing smoothing parameters in nonparametric regression. For the case of kernel estimators with iid or strong mixing data, it is well-known that the bandwidth chosen by crossvalidation is optimal with respect to the average squared error and other performance measures. In this paper, we show that the cross-validated bandwidth continues to be optimal with respect to the average squared error even when the datagenerating process is a -recurrent Markov chain. This general class of processes covers stationary as well as nonstationary Markov chains. Hence, the proposed procedure adapts to the degree of recurrence, thereby freeing the researcher from the need to assume stationary (or nonstationary) before inference begins. We study finite sample performance in a Monte Carlo study. We conclude by demonstrating the practical usefulness of cross-validation in a highly-persistent environment, namely that of nonlinear predictive systems for market returns. |
| Keywords: | Bandwidth Selection, Recurrence, Predictive Regressions |
| Date: | 2016–03–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:cemmap:11/16&r=net |
| By: | Tania Masi; Roberto Ricciuti |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effect of natural resources on political regimes. We use the synthetic control method to compare evolution of the democracy level of countries affected by giant oil discoveries with the weighted democracy level of countries that do not incur the same event and have similar pre-event characteristics. Focusing on 12 countries affected by the peak of oil discovery from the 1970s, we find that the exogenous variation in oil endowment does not have the same effect on all countries. In most of cases, the event has a negative effect in the long run, but countries with a high level of democracy in the pre-event period are not affected by the peak of oil discoveries. These results support heterogeneity and non-linearities claimed in the more recent theoretical literature. |
| Keywords: | people with disabilities, paid employment, basic education, Ghana |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-057&r=net |
| By: | Balazs Kiraly (Institute of Physics of Budapest University of Technology, Budapest); Andras Simonovits (Institute of Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences also Mathematical Institute of Budapest University of Technology, Budapest) |
| Abstract: | Mandatory pension systems only partially replace old-age income, therefore the government also operates a voluntary pension system, where savings are matched by government grants. Accounting for the resulting tax expenditure, our models describe the income flow from shortsighted to farsighted workers. 1. In rational models, explicit results are obtained, showing the limited learning of shortsighted workers. 2. In agent-based models, this learning is improved and this raises the shortsighted workers' saving and reduces perverse income redistribution. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle savings, overlapping generations, mandatory pensions, voluntary pensions, agent-based models |
| JEL: | H55 D91 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:1606&r=net |
| By: | Ashley Hirashima (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) and Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to investigate the effects of Ban-the-Box laws across the United States. Ban-the-Box laws make it illegal to ask whether an applicant has been convicted of a crime on a job application. The effects are consistent with that of statistical discrimination where the policy is having adverse effects on individuals labor market outcomes. I find that without perfect information about an individual's criminal history, firms base their perceived productivity of a potential applicant on an expected relationship between race and criminality. This results in negative effects on labor market outcomes for all individuals, especially for black males, who are particularly vulnerable. |
| Keywords: | Labor discrimination; Public Policy; Labor Demand |
| JEL: | J23 J38 J71 J78 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:201606&r=net |
| By: | Larouche, Pierre (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Schütt, Florian (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | As part of the standard-setting process, certain patents become essential. This may allow the owners of these standard-essential patents to hold up implementers of the standard, who can no longer turn to substitute technologies. However, many real-world standards evolve over time, with several generations of standards succeeding each other. Thus, standard setting is a repeated game in which participants can condition future behavior on whether or not hold-up has occurred in the past. In the presence of complementarity between the different patents included in the standard, technology contributors have an incentive to discipline each other and keep royalties low, which can be achieved by threatening to exclude contributors who have engaged in hold-up from future rounds of the process. We show that repeated standard setting can sustain FRAND royalties provided the probability that another round of standard setting will occur is sufficiently high. We also examine how the decision-making rules of standard-setting organizations affect the sustainability of FRAND royalties. |
| Keywords: | standard setting; repeated interaction; FRAND royalties |
| JEL: | L94 L43 L11 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:34a31bb2-0930-472a-b5dc-8216683204a0&r=net |
| By: | Van Der Weide,Roy; Lakner,Christoph; Ianchovichina,Elena |
| Abstract: | Household income surveys often fail to capture top incomes which leads to an underestimation of income inequality. A popular solution is to combine the household survey with data from income tax records, which has been found to result in significant upward corrections of inequality estimates. Unfortunately, tax records are unavailable in many countries, including most of the developing world. In the absence of data from tax records, this study explores the feasibility of using data on house prices to estimate the top tail of the income distribution. In an application to Egypt, where estimates of inequality based on household surveys alone are low by international standards, the study finds strong evidence that inequality is indeed being underestimated by a considerable margin. The Gini index for urban Egypt is found to increase from 36 to 47 after correcting for the missing top tail. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Diagnostics,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Inequality,Emerging Markets,Income |
| Date: | 2016–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7727&r=net |
| By: | M. Savioli; R. Patuelli |
| Abstract: | Economic processes, consisting of interactions between human beings, exploit the social capital of persons endowed with specific cultures, identities and education. By taking into account this complexity, we focus on the role of institutions and policymaking in the building of social capital and its relevance to the fulfilment of their objectives. Social capital, however, is elusive and has several dimensions with which to interpret its multifaceted functions in economics and society. We cannot forget that social capital is sometimes even undesirable for society, for instance when unethically used. Even so, it is widely accepted that social capital has stable and positive effects. |
| JEL: | Z13 B52 D78 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1070&r=net |
| By: | Chipurenko, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lisovskaya, Irina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trapeznikova, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The object of study in this work are methods of assessing the elements of financial statements of entities in Russia during the transition to the application of international accounting standards and the concept of fair value. |
| Keywords: | financial statements, concept of fair value |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2544&r=net |
| By: | Frank Windmeijer; Helmut Farbmacher; Neil Davies; George Davey Smith |
| Abstract: | We investigate the behaviour of the Lasso for selecting invalid instruments in linear instrumental variables models for estimating causal effects of exposures on outcomes, as proposed recently by Kang, Zhang, Cai and Small (2016, Journal of the American Statistical Association). Invalid instruments are such that they fail the exclusion restriction and enter the model as explanatory variables. We show that for this setup, the Lasso may not select all invalid instruments in large samples if they are relatively strong. Consistent selection also depends on the correlation structure of the instruments. We propose a median estimator that is consistent when less than 50% of the instruments are invalid, but its consistency does not depend on the relative strength of the instruments or their correlation structure. This estimator can therefore be used for adaptive Lasso estimation. The methods are applied to a Mendelian randomisation study to estimate the causal effect of BMI on diastolic blood pressure using data on individuals from the UK Biobank, with 96 single nucleotide polymorphisms as potential instruments for BMI. |
| Keywords: | causal inference, instrumental variables estimation, invalid instruments, Lasso, Mendelian randomisation. |
| Date: | 2016–06–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:16/674&r=net |
| By: | Klaus Gugler (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Adhurim Haxhimusa (Research Institute for Regulatory Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Mario Liebensteiner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to investigate the current state of market integration among European electricity day-ahead spot prices. We provide reasoning that market integration brings about benefits, such as lower average prices and increased welfare from allocative efficiency. Yet, price convergence leads to higher prices in the low-price market and to lower prices in the high-price market, which creates winners and losers and thus makes the political implementation of market integration cumbersome. In our empirical analysis, we utilize a large sample of hourly spot prices of 25 European markets for the period 01.01.2010–30.06.2015 and combine it with other relevant data such as interconnector capacities and the existence of market coupling. Firstly, empirical results from cointegration analysis indicate that market integration increased from 2010 to 2012 but then declined until 2015, most likely due to increased feed-in from intermittent renewables. Secondly, we empirically assess the speed of adjustment from price shocks and reach the conclusion that the resulting efficiency of integration is rather modest. In general, our findings suggest that integration among European electricity markets has a large potential for improvements from additional capacity investments and further promotion of market coupling. |
| Keywords: | Market integration, Spot Price, Convergence, Internal Market, Electricity |
| JEL: | F15 L81 L98 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp226&r=net |
| By: | Geiger, Felix; Muellbauer, John; Rupprecht, Manuel |
| Abstract: | House price booms in Anglo-Saxon economies and their collapse were an important part of the financial accelerator via consumption, construction and the banking system. This paper examines links for Germany between household portfolios, income and consumption in a six-equation system, for 1980-2012 data, for consumption, house prices, consumer credit, housing loans, liquid assets and permanent income with latent variables representing the shifts in the availability of the two types of credit. We find evidence of well specified consumption and house price functions and that Germany differs greatly from the Anglo-Saxon economies: rising house prices do not translate into higher consumer spending. This suggests that the transmission of monetary policy via asset prices, in particular house prices, on consumption is likely to be less effective, and any financial accelerator weaker, in Germany than in the US or the UK. There is little evidence of overvaluation of German house prices by 2012. JEL Classification: E21, E27, E44, E51, E58 |
| Keywords: | consumption, credit conditions, credit market liberalization, household debt, housing collateral, monetary transmission |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161904&r=net |
| By: | Friedrich Poeschel |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on “Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe”. This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002 / 30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper (DELSA/ELSA/MI(2015)5) was presented and discussed at the OECD working party on migration in June 2015. The functioning of labour markets in the European Union can benefit if third-country nationals become more mobile between EU member states. Using micro data from the EU Labour Force Survey, this paper measures their mobility and investigates whether it is raised by naturalisation or long-term resident status. While third-country nationals are overall less mobile than EU citizens, tertiary-educated persons appear equally mobile in both groups. Raising the mobility of all third-country nationals to the level of EU citizens would add at least 25 000 mobile persons. Causal effects on mobility from long-term resident status and naturalisation are identified through a difference-in-difference approach. Results suggest that long-term resident status increases the mobility of third-country nationals by 2%-6%. To avoid selection bias in the results for naturalisation, this paper draws on a natural experiment: following the accession of Central and Eastern European countries to the EU, all their citizens indiscriminately obtained the rights of EU citizens. The evidence suggests that those who were already living in other EU countries became more mobile as a result. These findings highlight that intra-EU mobility of third-country nationals depends on their rights to reside and work in other EU countries. |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2016–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:187-en&r=net |
| By: | Adam Marszk (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Ewa Lechman (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland); Harleen Kaur (Faculty of Management and Information Technology, Hamdard University, Hamdard, India) |
| Abstract: | Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most influential financial innovations, reshaping the investment funds market in many countries, including Mexico. Due to their similar investment objectives, ETFs are considered substitutes for mutual funds. This paper examines the changes of the investment funds (ETFs and mutual funds) in Mexico over 2002-2012 using a category of the innovation diffusion models, i.e. logistic growth models in order to explore the key development patterns. Descriptions of the selected categories of investment funds are provided in the first section of the article, together with the advantages of ETFs as opposed to mutual funds. Next section presents data sources and methodological framework, with detailed description of the innovation diffusion models applied in the research (based on 3-parametric logistic curve). Sum of assets under management of ETFs and mutual is considered as the size of the total investment funds market. Empirical findings indicate the significant development of the ETF market, both in terms of assets under management and market share. According to the presented estimations, Mexican ETF market development can be described with the logistic growth models, and three characteristic phases of the logistic curve were clearly observable. Predicted ETF market development patterns point towards further increase of market share of ETFs over the next 3-5 years yet the probability of exceeding the level of ca. 20-30% seems low |
| Keywords: | exchange traded funds, mutual funds, diffusion models, financial innovation, Mexico |
| JEL: | G11 G23 O16 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gdk:wpaper:34&r=net |
| By: | Глинкина Светлана Петровна; Н. Куликова |
| Abstract: | Революции в Центрально-Восточной Европе (ЦВЕ) на рубеже 80-90-х годов стали крупнейшим политическим событием второй половины ХХ в. Они знаменовали крах мировой социалистической системы, в рамках которой страны ЦВЕ развивались почти полвека после второй мировой войны, и положили начало трансформации их общественной системы. The revolutions in Central and Eastern Europe at the turn of the 80-90-ies became the biggest political event of the second half of the XX century. They marked the collapse of the world socialist system, in which frameworks the CEE countries had developed almost half a century after the Second World War and laid the foundation for the transformation of their social system. |
| Keywords: | Central and Eastern Europe |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rua:wpaper:a:pgl47:y:2015:1&r=net |
| By: | Herrin, Alejandro N. |
| Abstract: | In 2015, based on the latest survey of the Food Nutrition Research Institute, childhood stunting affected one-third (33%) of children under five years. This is equivalent to 3.78 million children in 2015. Moreover, there has been little progress in reducing stunting prevalence in the last 20 years. The strategic importance of stunting prevention cannot be overemphasized in view of its short- and long-term consequences on health, learning, and economic productivity, and the short period of time that it can be effectively prevented (the first 1000 days from conception to age 2 years). Moreover, cost-effective interventions to address the situation are known and regularly updated. Assessments of specific nutrition projects have uncovered various implementation issues of targeting, coordination, management structures, logistics, and sustainability. On the other hand, recent sector-level assessment has uncovered a number of structural issues of governance--local mobilization to implement nutrition program; limited resources for nutrition; and organizational--effective coordination by the National Nutrition Council National Secretariat in a devolved set-up. Responding to these structural issues requires a new approach to address them. An approach suggested in the paper is to take advantage of existing opportunities offered, first, by the increasing global interest in child stunting, and second, by the existing platforms for identifying the poor and for delivering and financing health services. The paper outlines an approach for consideration and discussion. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, health service delivery, childhood stunting, maternal and child care, micronutrients |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:rpseri:dp_2016-21&r=net |
| By: | Igor Fedyukin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the policies pursued by the key "German" ministers of Empress Anna Ioannovna (r. 1730-1740). This period has been traditionally presented as a "reign of Germans" who allegedly acted in ways that were oppressive, ill-conceived, and detrimental for Russia's true interests. Recent scholarship successfully debunked the notions that the "Germans" acted as a cohesive political faction and demonstrated that their policies were largely sensible and successful. Did the "foreignness" of these German-born ministers matter, however? As this article argues, many of these policies could actually be linked to the influences of the Halle Pietism and represented an important "disciplinary moment" in early modern Russian history |
| Keywords: | Empress Anna, "German Party", von Buhren, von Munnich, Pietism, governamentality |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:132/hum/2016&r=net |
| By: | Nyasha , Sheilla; Gwenhure, Yvonne; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
| Abstract: | In this study, we have explored the causal relationship between energy consumption andeconomic growth in Ethiopia, during the period from 1971 to 2013. We have employed amultivariate Granger-causality framework that incorporates financial development,investment and trade openness as intermittent variables ??? in an effort to address theomission-of-variable bias. Based on the newly developed ARDL bounds testing approach toco-integration and the Error-Correction Model-based causality model, our results show thatin Ethiopia, there is a distinct unidirectional Granger-causality from economic growth toenergy consumption. These results apply, irrespective of whether the estimation is done in theshort run or in the long run. We recommend that policy makers in Ethiopia should considerexpanding their energy-mix options, in order to cope with the future demand arising from anincrease in the real sector growth. |
| Keywords: | Ethiopia, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, Granger-Causality |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:20288&r=net |
| By: | Smith, David |
| Abstract: | Due in part to concerns over energy security and the environmental impacts of fossil fuels, recent United States energy policy has included provisions to promote renewable energy. The Energy Policy Act includes provisions for advanced biofuels from cellulosic biomass. Perennial bioenergy crops such as perennial grasses and woody crops are an alternative source of feedstock for biofuel with lower environmental impacts than their annual counterparts. Previous work has shown that, when perennial grasses are financially competitive with a farmer’s current crops, a majority of farmers will produce perennial grasses but only on a small portion of their land. One potential explanation for this is the risk posed by growing a new crop and selling it into a new emerging market. Therefore this study uses the land allocation under risk framework developed by Just and Zilberman (1988) to estimate structural parameters. The structural system is estimated using full information maximum likelihood. Observation of the acreage choice is condi- tional on the risk-adjusted profits being positive making the estimation method analogous to Heckman’s simultaneous sample correction method. As a result of using a structural mixed-processes system the scale parameter of the discrete choice equation can be identi- fied. Results suggest that agricultural landowners perceive an order of magnitude higher risk to perennial bioenergy production than their current production system. These results are partly driven by the risk management options currently available for commodity crops such as crop insurance, futures markets, and risk reducing inputs. Agricultural landowners also perceive woody crops as risker and with higher adoption costs than perennial grasses. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q15, Q16, |
| Date: | 2016–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236343&r=net |
| By: | Uri Dadush; Mona Niebuhr |
| Abstract: | The current refugee crisis is a catastrophe affecting millions of families, endangering the stability of nations that are hosts to large numbers of migrants, and of the region around them. Forced migration flows which are mismanaged, as at present, create large negative political and economic externalities for the world as a whole. Concerns of advanced countries that accepting forced migrants will cause job losses or falling wages, and place an undue burden on the public purse, are largely unjustified. Although there is no perfect scheme for allocating the burden, any solution must envisage increased numbers of refugees settling in the North and increased aid for the countries in the South with the largest numbers of refugees. |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:pp-16/05&r=net |
| By: | Kazakova, Maria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Nesterova, Kristina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | According to the official budget statistics, the threat of destabilization of the Russian budget in the foreseeable future is not visible. However, to fully assess fiscal sustainability is not enough to analyze only the current rates. In the next few decades, Russia is expected to increase in spending on pensions and health care due to demographic factors. In addition, it is expected that the share of revenues from the oil and gas sector in total budget revenue and as a percentage of GDP will be gradually reduced due to the low growth of oil production. In this paper we present a long-term (up to 2100) forecast of the main budget parameters (income and expenses) in Russia, as well as evaluation of the budget gap. It is shown that the threat to the stability of the budget in the long run does not come as much of the growth in social spending, but on the reduction of oil and gas revenues. In conclusion, the authors formulated conclusions of the study. |
| Keywords: | budget policy, forcasting, Russia, GDP, pensions |
| Date: | 2015–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:2309&r=net |
| By: | Nadav Ben Zeev (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev); Hashmat U. Khan (Department of Economics, Carleton University) |
| Abstract: | When both IST news and TFP news shocks compete, the former substantially dominate the latter in driving post-WWII US business cycles. We use the most recent 2016 vintage of Fernald (2014)'s utilization-adjusted TFP data since it is somewhat favourable to TFP news shocks identification (Sims (2016)). At a 20 quarter horizon, IST news shocks account for nearly 70 percent of the forecast error variance in output, 65 percent in hours, and 50 percent in investment. By contrast, TFP news shocks account for less than 5 percent of the variation in output, consumption, and hours, and about 20 percent in investment. TFP news shocks also fail to generate comovement with respect to consumption and hours, both of which decrease after a positive TFP news shock. These sharp findings have important implications for future research on news-driven business cycles. In particular, for shifting focus from TFP news to IST news, and in reconciling the empirical evidence with structural explanations. |
| Keywords: | Investment-specific news, TFP news, Shocks, News-driven business cycles |
| JEL: | E32 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:car:carecp:16-08&r=net |
| By: | Kurt Lavetti; Kosali Simon |
| Abstract: | The design of Medicare Part D causes most Medicare beneficiaries to receive fragmented health insurance, whereby prescription drugs and other medical care are covered by separate insurance plans. Fragmentation of insurance plans is potentially inefficient since separate insurers maximize profits over only one component of healthcare spending, despite many complementarities and substitutabilities between types of healthcare. Fragmentation of some plans but not others can also lead to market distortions due to differential adverse selection, as integrated plans may use drug formulary designs to induce enrollment by patients who are profitable under Parts A & B, while stand-alone drug plans have no such incentive. We study whether the design of insurance plans in Medicare Part D reflects these two differences in incentives using data on the universe of Part D plan formularies, drug prices, and Medicare claims data. We find evidence consistent with both hypotheses. Relative to fragmented plans, integrated plans systematically design their drug formularies to encourage enrollment by beneficiaries with medical conditions that are profitable under Parts A & B. However, integrated plans also more generously cover drugs that have the potential to causally reduce medical costs. These large differences in incentives and plan design between integrated and fragmented plans are likely the precursors of substantial differential selection of enrollees, and the basic design of Medicare Part D abets this covert selection. |
| JEL: | I11 I13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22338&r=net |
| By: | Yu Zhou; Shigehiro Serizawa |
| Abstract: | We consider the allocation problem of assigning heterogeneous objects to a group of agents and determining how much they should pay. Each agent receives at most one object. Agents have non-quasi-linear preferences over bundles, each consisting of an object and a payment. Especially, we focus on the cases: (i) objects are linearly ranked, and as long as objects are equally priced, agents commonly prefer a higher ranked object to a lower ranked one, and (ii) objects are partitioned into several tiers, and as long as objects are equally priced, agents commonly prefer an object in the higher tier to an object in the lower tier. The minimum price rule assigns minimum price (Walrasian) equilibrium to each preference profile. We establish: (i) on a common-object-ranking domain, the minimum price rule is the only rule satisfying efficiency, strategy-proofness, individual rationality and no subsidy, and (ii) on a common-tiered-object domain, the minimum price rule is the only rule satisfying these four axioms. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0971&r=net |
| By: | Morgunova, O.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Turuntseva, Marina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Seasonal adjustment of Socio-economic indicators is a standard tool that allows to eliminate the time-series of seasonal fluctuations and, thus, to solve (at least partially) the problem of modeling the seasonality, as in the one-dimensional models, as well as in structural macroeconomic models. The task of seasonal adjustment in many countries is a prerogative of the official statistical services: they spend the seasonal adjustment using the same methodology and publish the relevant data (and sometimes their only). Unfortunately, at the moment Rosstat does not publish seasonally adjusted figures (except a few). As a result of the empirical studies authors have to seasonally smooth the time series by themselves, using the built-in modern software packages procedure. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic indicators, seasonal adjustment |
| Date: | 2016–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2131&r=net |
| By: | Collins, Matthew; Curtis, John |
| Abstract: | This study examines energy efficiency retrofit depth in Ireland using data from a national residential grant scheme for energy efficiency upgrades. We specifically examine both the number of retrofit measures adopted per dwelling, and also the comprehensiveness of retrofits upgrades, which are retrofits in excess of the most common and simple retrofit combinations. We find that certain obligated parties, who are obliged by the State to reduce energy consumption in Ireland, vary both positively and negatively in terms of number of retrofit measures relative to private retrofits, but perform negatively with regard to comprehensive retrofits. All parties are found to perform negatively with regard to comprehensive retrofits, relative to private applications. Newer homes, relative to older homes are more likely to invest in more retrofit measures but less likely to engage in more comprehensive retrofits. Regionally, homes in the Greater Dublin Area are less likely to undertake more retrofit measures but more likely to engage in more comprehensive retrofits, while the opposite is true of rural areas. A seasonal trend also exists, with applications made during autumn and winter much less likely to be made for more comprehensive retrofits. Demand for more measures and more comprehensive retrofits does not appear to be affected by financial incentives as the introduction of a bonus for three- and four-measure retrofits has not coincided with any increases in the demand for such retrofits. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp532&r=net |
| By: | Jan Hajek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | We use the behavioral equilibirum exchange rate (BEER) approach to examine the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in the euro area over the period 1980-2014. In a panel data setting, we find significant links between real exchange rates, relative productivity, trade balance and terms of trade. Unlike other papers related to the topic, we go further in the direction of linking the estimated misalignment to inflationary differentials. Our results indicate that a positive 1 percentage point inflationary differential between individual country and the euro area itself translates into 1.7 percentage point increase in overvaluation of the individual country’s real exchange rate. We also show the extent of overvaluation in peripheral countries of the euro area has been increasing since mid-2000s. At the end of observed period this trend partially stopped due to emergence of falling prices in these economies. We discuss implications of such reversal and conclude deflation in peripheral countries of t he euro area might be helpful when restoring its competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | real exchange rates, misalignment, euro area, panel data, inflationary differentials |
| JEL: | C21 E31 F31 F45 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_11&r=net |
| By: | Effah Nyamekye, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | The paper empirically examines the effect of globalisation on the service sector output in Ghana for the period 1961-2013 using annual time series data. The ordinary least square method of regression was employed after the unit root properties were examined. The findings of the study indicate negative effect of globalisation on the service sector output, suggesting that the Ghanaian economy has not benefited positively from globalisation. Policy makers should reconsider the use of globalisation as a policy tool in achieving growth in the service sector. The use of nonlinear models in future study is worth considering, as well as the use of other proxies of globalisation. Other regression estimation methods such as the Johansen method should be considered in future empirical studies to find out whether the current findings will be replicated. |
| Keywords: | service sector output, globalisation, economic growth |
| JEL: | F14 G21 G22 G23 G24 L80 L90 |
| Date: | 2016–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71841&r=net |
| By: | Luca Di Corato (University of Uppsala); Michele Moretto (University of Padova); Gianpaolo Rossini (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between the extent and timing of vertical fl?exibility and the fi?nancial choices of a fi?rm. By vertical fl?exibility we mean partial/total and reversible outsourcing of a necessary input. A fi?rm simultaneously selects its vertical setting and how to fi?nance it. We examine debt and venture capital. Debt is provided by a lender that requires the payment of a fi?xed coupon over time and, as a collateral, an option to buy out the fi?rm in certain circumstances. Debt leads to the same level of fl?exibility which would be acquired by an unlevered ?firm. Yet investment occurs earlier. With venture capital less outsourcing may be is adopted with respect to the unlevered case and the ?firm invests mostly later. Hence, as the injection of venture capital may reduce the need of vertical fl?exibility, a novel relationship can be established for the substitutability between a real and a fi?nancial variable. |
| Keywords: | vertical integration, fl?exible outsourcing, debt, equity and venture capital, real options. |
| JEL: | C61 G31 G32 L24 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0206&r=net |
| By: | Mihaly Ormos; Dusan Timotity |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses a novel explanation for asymmetric volatility based on the anchoring behavioral pattern. Anchoring as a heuristic bias causes investors focusing on recent price changes and price levels, which two lead to a belief in continuing trend and mean-reversion respectively. The empirical results support our theoretical explanation through an analysis of large price fluctuations in the S&P 500 and the resulting effects on implied and realized volatility. These results indicate that asymmetry (a negative relationship) between shocks and volatility in the subsequent period indeed exists. Moreover, contrary to previous research, our empirical tests also suggest that implied volatility is not simply an upward biased predictor of future deviation compensating for the variance of the volatility but rather, due to investors systematic anchoring to losses and gains in their volatility forecasts, it is a co-integrated yet asymmetric over/under estimated financial instrument. We also provide results indicating that the medium-term implied volatility (measured by the VIX Index) is an unbiased though inefficient estimation of realized volatility, while in contrast, the short-term volatility (measured by the recently introduced VXST Index representing the 9-day implied volatility) is also unbiased and yet efficient. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.03597&r=net |
| By: | Ma, Xinxin; Li, Shi |
| Abstract: | This paper explores industrial segregation and its impact on the wage gaps between rural-to-urban migrants and local urban residents in China. Using the Chinese Household Income Project (CHIP) 2002 and 2013 surveys, we analyzed the probabilities of entry to various industries for both migrant and local urban resident groups; using the model of Brown et al. (1980), we then undertook a decomposition analysis of the wage gaps. Several major conclusions emerge. First, although inter-industry differentials and intra-industry differentials both affect the wage gap between migrants and local urban residents, the effect of intra-industrial differentials is greater in both 2002 and 2013. Second, in considering the effect of intra-industry differentials, while the influence of explained differentials is greater than that of unexplained differentials in both 2002 and 2013, the influence of the unexplained component of the intra-industrial differentials rises steeply from 19.4% (2002) to 68.0% (2013). The results show that when other factors are held constant, the problem of discrimination against migrants in a given industry is becoming more serious. In addition, the influence of the explained component of the intra-industry differentials rises from 61.2% (2002) to 77.7% (2013). |
| Keywords: | industrial segregation, wage gaps, migrants, local urban residents, urban China |
| JEL: | J16 J24 J42 J71 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2016-4&r=net |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Xiaojin Sun (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas at El Paso) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates, for the first time, the impact of housing market spillovers on a small open economy, namely South Africa, using a small-open economy new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (SOE-NKDSGE) which explicitly incorporates a housing sector. Using quarterly data covering the period of 1971:Q1-2015:Q3, we obtain the following set of results: (a) Over the business cycle, the housing preference shock and the technology shock in the consumption sector drive most of the fluctuations of real house price; (b) The spillover effects of the housing market to the boarder economy are not negligible; (c) The central bank of South Africa has actively responded to house price movements over the past 45 years; and (d) The flexible exchange rate policy has helped South Africa maintain the macroeconomic stability to a large extent. |
| Keywords: | Housing Market, Spillovers, Monetary Policy, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model, South Africa |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E44 E52 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201641&r=net |
| By: | Christiane Bradler (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany); Susanne Neckermann (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes use of two field experiments to explore individual effort responses to gifts. We extend the literature by looking at nonfinancial gifts and gifts that combine financial and nonfinancial elements with or without adding a ``personal touch.'' We find that non-pecuniary gifts that signal worker appreciation induce reciprocity. Most importantly, we find that there are interaction effects between money and appreciation. While money and appreciation are individually effective, they only work well together when they are combined with a personal touch. This points to the importance of interpersonal elements in gift giving and has important implications for how to effectively elicit worker effort. |
| Keywords: | gift exchange; reciprocity; personnel economics; gratitude; personal touch; field experiment |
| JEL: | C93 M52 |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160045&r=net |
| By: | Mukhlynina, Lilia; Nyborg, Kjell G |
| Abstract: | We use a survey approach to learn about valuation professionals' choices and implementations of valuation techniques in practice. The survey design allows us to control for a respondent's professional subgroup (e.g., consulting), education, experience, and valuation purpose characteristics. We find support for the 'sociological hypothesis' that profession matters more than education; different professions have different valuation cultures. Other factors are less important. There are also many commonalities across respondents. Most use both multiples and DCF, but implement DCF in a way that almost turns it into a multiples exercise. Confusion reigns with respect to interest tax shields and the WACC. Higher educational levels do not reduce the confusion. Our overall findings matter because valuation professionals function as intermediaries in the capital allocation process. The relative unimportance of education raises questions about the role and benefit of higher level finance education. |
| Keywords: | DCF; finance education; multiples; sociological hypothesis; Valuation; valuation cultures |
| JEL: | A11 A14 A20 G02 G24 G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11303&r=net |
| By: | José Antonio Ocampo |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at historical and current frameworks to manage macroeconomic linkages among economies. It considers first the evolving nature of global payments imbalances. It then focuses on the mechanisms of macroeconomic dialogue and cooperation put in place at different times to guarantee the consistency of the macroeconomic policies of major economies. These mechanisms have operated sometimes within the International Monetary Fund, but generally outside its institutional framework, and in recent years through the Group of Twenty. Finally, it analyses the functioning of the original Bretton Woods exchange rate system and its replacement in the early 1970s by a veritable .non-system. |
| Keywords: | global imbalances, macroeconomic policy co-ordination, exchange rate system, International Monetary Fund, Group of Twenty |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-049&r=net |
| By: | Tansel, Aysit; Karaoglan, Deniz |
| Abstract: | This study provides causal effect of education on health behaviors in Turkey which is a middle income developing country. Health Survey of the Turkish Statistical Institute for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 are used. The health behaviors considered are smoking, alcohol consumption, fruit and vegetable consumption, exercising and one health outcome namely, the body mass index (BMI). We examine the causal effect of education on these health behaviors and the BMI Instrumental variable approach is used in order to address the endogeneity of education to health behaviors. Educational expansion of the early 1960s is used as the source of exogenous variation in years of schooling. Our main findings are as follows. Education does not significantly affect the probability of smoking or exercising. The higher the education level the higher the probability of alcohol consumption and the probability of fruit and vegetable consumption. Higher levels of education lead to higher BMI levels. This study provides a baseline for further research on the various aspects of health behaviors in Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Health Behaviors, Education, Instrumental Variable Estimation |
| JEL: | I10 I12 I19 |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72146&r=net |
| By: | Shintaro Yamaguchi |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses how childcare and parental leave policies affect female employment by reviewing the international evidence and recent papers on Japan. These papers estimate causal effects of policies by exploiting policy changes, which is a more credible identification strategy than earlier observational studies. The literature on parental leave finds that a more generous leave package tends to delay mothers’ return to work, but it does not have detrimental effects on maternal labor supply in the medium to long run. Some papers also find that job protection around one year can increase maternal employment, but longer job protection has little additional effects. The literature on childcare policies finds that maternal employment does not necessarily increase, because the expansion of childcare may crowd out informal childcare arrangements, such as care provided by grandparents. Findings by recent papers on Japan are largely consistent with the international evidence. |
| Keywords: | childcare, parental leave, maternal employment, nuclear family, three-generation family |
| JEL: | J13 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2016-06&r=net |
| By: | Makovi, Michael |
| Abstract: | Recent debate has centered around the contemporary relevance and even the original validity of F. A. Hayek's Road to Serfdom. Was it directed against command socialism only or against welfare-state interventionism as well? Should the book even be read anymore? This essay takes a step back from the dichotomy between socialism and interventionism and explores two specific ideas of Hayek's which deserve renewed attention: first, his claim that economic liberty is the fundamental liberty and that political liberty is merely secondary in value. Second, Hayek's conception of the rule-of-law, which has implications for contemporary command-and-control regulation. Furthermore, that Hayek's philosophical conception of the rule-of-law in the Road to Serfdom is related to his economic theory of prices in “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” While Hayek's specific target in the Road to Serfdom was command socialism, his book embodied arguments which are more widely applicable and relevant today. |
| Keywords: | rule of law; liberty; freedom; rights; price system |
| JEL: | A12 B24 B25 B31 B53 D70 D82 K00 P10 P20 P50 |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72071&r=net |
| By: | Widman, Marit (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Elofsson, Katarina (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Livestock depredation by large carnivores entails economic damage to farmers in many parts of the world. The aim of this paper is to analyse and compare the costs of livestock depredation by carnivores across different carnivore species and regions. To this end, we estimate the government’s compensation cost function. This study uses Swedish data on the county level over the period of 2001 to 2013. Compensation costs due to depredation by three large carnivores are considered: the brown bear (Ursus arctos), the wolf (Canis lupus) and the lynx (Lynx lynx). The results indicate that the costs of compensation for depredation by wolves, lynx and brown bears are determined by the densities of predators and livestock, the amount of forest pasture and the stock of preventive measures. There are considerable differences in marginal costs between predator species and counties, which have implications for policy. |
| Keywords: | Wildlife compensation; Livestock depredation; Lynx; Wolf; Brown bear; Sheep. |
| JEL: | Q28 Q57 |
| Date: | 2016–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slueko:2016_005&r=net |
| By: | Keller, Wolfgang; Utar, Hale |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of international trade for job polarization, the phenomenon in which employment for high- and low-wage occupations increases but mid-wage occupations decline. With employer-employee matched data on virtually all workers and firms in Denmark between 1999 and 2009, we use instrumental-variables techniques and a quasi-natural experiment to show that import competition is a major cause of job polarization. Import competition with China accounts for about 17% of the aggregate decline in mid-wage employment. Many mid-skill workers are pushed into low-wage service jobs while others move into high-wage jobs. The direction of movement, up or down, turns on the skill focus of workers' education. Workers with vocational training for a service occupation can avoid moving into low-wage service jobs, and among them workers with information-technology education are far more likely to move into high-wage jobs than other workers. |
| Keywords: | import competition; inequality; occupational change; vocational education |
| JEL: | F16 I24 J21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11311&r=net |
| By: | Kirdar, Murat; Meltem, Dayioglu; Ismet, Koc |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey—which increased women’s schooling by more than a year—on marriage and birth outcomes of teenage women, using regression discontinuity design, where we compare month-year of birth cohorts of all women. We find very strong incarceration effects of the new policy; the increased compulsory schooling years reduce the probability of teenage marriage by age 16 and first-births by age 17 substantially. However, these effects are short-lived; they dissapear after age 17 for marriage and after age 18 for first-births because the policy increases the marriage hazard rate at age 17, shortly after these women leave school, and there is no policy effect on the time to first-birth after marriage. These findings indicate either small or no human capital effects of the policy on marriage and first-birth decisions. |
| Keywords: | Teenage marriage; births; education; compulsory schooling; regression-discontinuity; month-year of birth. |
| JEL: | I21 J12 J13 J16 J18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72119&r=net |
| By: | Tocco, Barbara; Davidova, Sophia; Bailey, Alastair |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the phenomenon of part-time farming, which is a typical feature in the EU and particularly in Italy, often associated with pluriactivity and small-scale farming. With the aim of improving current understanding on agricultural employment decisions, this study investigates the drivers of farm holders’ on-farm labour supply and tests for labour allocation differences based on the size of the farm. Since the definition of ‘small farm’ is arbitrary, this study explores different criteria taking into account the farm type and the utilised agricultural area. A random effects ordered probit is employed on a balanced panel for the period 2003-2009, using micro-data from the Italian Agricultural Business Survey (REA). The findings indicate significant differences in labour market responses between small and large farms, highlighting the diverse farm structures, incentives and business requirements. Pluriactivity and market integration are found to be important drivers of on-farm labour supply and are fundamental for the stabilisation of incomes of small farmers. The empirical results support the policy claim that for smaller farmers rural development policies which encourage diversification activities and support commercialisation are much more important than farm subsidies. |
| Keywords: | Part-time farming, labour allocation, farm size, Italy, Farm Management, D13, J22, J43, Q12, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236291&r=net |
| By: | Michael P. Keane (University of Oxford and University of New South Wales); Nada Wasi (University of Michigan, Survey Research Center) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we specify and estimate a life-cycle labour supply model that expands on earlier work by simultaneously including human capital accumulation, saving and bequests, an active extensive margin, a realistic specification of the Social Security system, an accounting for private pensions and health expenditures, and a realistic specification of the progressive tax structure. By accounting for all these features, we develop new insights into how taxes affect life-cycle labour supply. For instance, we find that labour supply elasticities vary in important ways with age, education and the tax structure itself. We also show how human capital affects elasticities on the intensive vs. extensive margins. |
| Date: | 2015–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nuf:econwp:1605&r=net |
| By: | Mamuta, Mikhail (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Sorokina, O.S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with determination of the existing approaches to the regulation and supervision of credit cooperatives in the world, in particular, the components of effective regulation of credit cooperatives and the main recommendations on the application of proportionate risk-based model to regulation and supervision of non-bank financial institutions. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, microfinance, credit cooperation, non-banking lenders, regulation, supervision, prudential regulation |
| Date: | 2016–05–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:451&r=net |
| By: | Effah Nyamekye, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | In this paper the author examine the effect of imports, and exports on service sector productivity of Ghana for the period 1970-2013, using annual time series data. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), and the KwiatKowski (KPSS) test were used for the assessment of the effect of external shock on imports, exports, and service sector productivity whereas the ordinary least square method (OLS) was used to examine the role of import, and export on service sector productivity. The results indicate that the effect of external shock to imports, exports, and service sector productivity are permanent and not temporary. There is negative significant effect of export and positive effect of import on service sector productivity in Ghana during the period of discussion. The results suggest that policy makers can rely on import to influence service sector productivity and not export. Future studies should examine the effect of import of goods and services on the service sector productivity to determine whether the current findings will be replicated since the current study used export and import volumes. |
| Keywords: | Export, Import, Service Sector Productivity |
| JEL: | F14 L25 L80 |
| Date: | 2015–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72091&r=net |
| By: | Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte; Yu,Shu |
| Abstract: | Benign financing conditions since the global financial crisis and, more recently, rising financing needs have fueled a rapid increase in credit to the nonfinancial private sector, especially to the corporate sector, in emerging markets and developing economies. Credit growth has been most pronounced, and nearing the pace associated with past credit booms, in commodity exporting countries. In contrast, in commodity importers, credit-to-gross domestic product ratios are elevated but have been stable or shrinking over the past few years. That said, in a few, mostly energy exporting, emerging and developing countries, credit to the private sector is now near levels that have been associated with past episodes of financial stress. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Access to Finance,Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress |
| Date: | 2016–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7704&r=net |
| By: | LINDERT, Peter H. |
| Abstract: | The traditionally, and wrongly, imagined vulnerabilities of the welfare state are economic. The true threats are demographic and political. The most frequently imagined threat is that the welfare state package reduces the level and growth of GDP. It does not, according to broad historical patterns and non-experimental panel econometrics. Large-budget welfare states achieve a host of social improvements without any clear loss of GDP. The paper elaborates on how this "free lunch" is gained in practice. Other threats to the welfare state are more real, however. Two demographic-political clouds loom on the horizon in the twenty-first century, though neither cloud reveals an economic flaw specific to the welfare state. One cloud is the rise of anti-immigrant backlash. If combined with heavy refugee inflows, this could destroy future public support for universalist welfare state programs, even though they seem to remain economically sound. The other, and more certainly rain-bearing, cloud is that population aging poses a serious problem for financing old age, either publicly or privately. Pension deficits threatens to crowd out more productive social spending. Only a few countries have faced this issue very well. |
| JEL: | H10 H50 N32 N34 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-30&r=net |
| By: | Michael Davidson; Fredrich Kahrl; Valerie Karplus |
| Abstract: | We propose a general taxonomy of the political economy challenges to wind power development and integration, highlighting the implications in terms of actors, interests, and risks. Applying this framework to three functions in China.s electricity sector.planning and project approval, generator cost recovery, and balancing area coordination.we find evidence of challenges common across countries with significant wind investments, despite institutional and industry characteristics that are unique to China.We argue that resolving these political economy challenges is as important to facilitating the role of wind and other renewable energies in a low carbon energy transition as providing dedicated technical and policy support. China is no exception. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy sources |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-032&r=net |
| By: | Anteby, Michel; Chan, Curtis K.; DiBenigno, Julia |
| Abstract: | Management and organizational scholarship is overdue for a reappraisal of occupations and professions as well as a critical review of past and current work on the topic. Indeed, the field has largely failed to keep pace with the rising salience of occupational and professional?as opposed to organizational?dynamics in work life. Moreover, not only is there a dearth of studies that explicitly take occupational or professional categories into account, but there is also an absence of a shared analytical framework for understanding what occupations and professions entail. Our goal is therefore two-fold: first, to offer guidance to scholars less familiar with this terrain who encounter occupational or professional dynamics in their own inquiries and, second, to introduce a three-part framework for conceptualizing occupations and professions to help guide future inquiries. We suggest that occupations and professions can be understood through lenses of ?becoming,? ?doing,? and ?relating.? We develop this framework as we review past literature and discuss the implications of each approach for future research and, more broadly, for the field of management and organizational theory. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:324041&r=net |
| By: | O'Callaghan, Daniel; Hennessy, Thia; Breen, James |
| Abstract: | With agricultural extension being an important method of knowledge transfer and promoting innovation, we explore the factors associated with extension participation in the case of Irish cattle farmers. The cattle sector has a high reliance on direct payments and off farm employment is prevalent; we explore how these factors affect extension participation making use of data from a government funded extension program. By applying a sequential logit model, we found that subsidy dependence and off farm employment both had a significant and negative impact on participation. |
| Keywords: | Extension Participation, Subsidy Dependence, Off-Farm Employment, Sequential Logit Model, Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, C25, Q16, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236329&r=net |
| By: | Mattia GUERINI (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna); Mauro Napoletano (OFCE); Andrea Roventini (Laboratory of Economics and Management (Pisa) (LEM)) |
| Abstract: | We develop an agent-based model in which heterogeneous firms and households interact in labor and good markets according to centralized or decentralized search and matching protocols. As the model has a deterministic backbone and a full-employment equilibrium, it can be directly compared to Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. We study the effects of negative productivity shocks by way of impulse-response func- tions (IRF). Simulation results show that when search and matching are centralized, the economy is always able to return to the full employment equilibrium and IRFs are similar to those generated by DSGE models. However, when search and matching are local, co- ordination failures emerge and the economy persistently deviates from full employment. Moreover, agents display persistent heterogeneity. Our results suggest that macroeco- nomic models should explicitly account for agents’ heterogeneity and direct interactions |
| Keywords: | Agent-based model; Local interactions; Heterogenous agents; DGSE Model |
| JEL: | E3 E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/20d1ncsepb9ssq3b3v4s6nbc41&r=net |
| By: | Ciccarelli, Nicola |
| Abstract: | Financial data sets exhibit conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetric volatility. In this paper we derive a semiparametric efficient adaptive estimator of a conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetric volatility GARCH-type model (i.e., the PTTGARCH(1,1) model). Via kernel density estimation of the unknown density function of the innovation and via the Newton-Raphson technique applied on the root-n-consistent quasi-maximum likelihood estimator, we construct a more efficient estimator than the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we show that the semiparametric estimator is adaptive for parameters in- cluded in the conditional variance of the model with respect to the unknown distribution of the innovation. |
| Keywords: | Semiparametric adaptive estimation; Power-transformed and threshold GARCH. |
| JEL: | C14 C22 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72021&r=net |
| By: | Stijn Ferrari; Mara Pirovano (Prudential Policy and Financial Stability, National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Given the indisputable cost of policy inaction in the run-up to banking crises as well as the negative side effects of unwarranted policy activation, policymakers would strongly benefit from earlywarning thresholds that more accurately predict crises and produce fewer false alarms. This paper presents a novel yet intuitive methodology to compute country-specific and state-dependent thresholds for early-warning indicators of banking crises. Our results for a selection of early-warning indicators for banking crises in 14 EU countries show that the benefits of applying the conditional moments approach can be substantial. The methodology provides more robust signals and improves the early-warning performance at the country-specific level, by accounting for country idiosyncrasies and state dependencies, which play an important role in national supervisory authorities’ macroprudential surveillance. |
| Keywords: | Banking crises, Early warning systems, Country-specific thresholds, State-dependent thresholds |
| JEL: | C40 E44 E47 E61 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201606-298&r=net |
| By: | Jukka TERÄS (Nordregio, Stockholm (Sweden)); Alexandre DUBOIS (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden)); JENS SÖRVIK (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); MARTINA PERTOLDI (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | This Working Paper explores Research and Innovation Strategies for Smart Specialisation (RIS3) in Sparsely Populated Areas (SPA). The paper discusses the most significant elements of Smart Specialisation (S3) in SPA focusing on its theoretical background as well as on the empirical processes related to the introduction and implementation of the S3 concept in selected European regions. Presenting both issues emerging from theoretical debates and practice-based examples, this paper provides a critical discussion on the operationalisation of S3 in the specific context of European Sparsely Populated Areas. SPA should not be seen as regions lagging behind by definition but as regions with specific characteristics including challenges and opportunities. The analysis of the case-study regions demonstrates that SPA have been able to create innovative environments in sparsely populated and remote areas and that there is a mind-set and willingness to utilise the possibilities provided by S3 processes. However, in doing so SPA need to strengthen their competitiveness with extra-regional knowledge and networking pipelines and even more so than other types of regions in consideration of the lack of critical mass. The specific characteristics and features of SPA often with abundant natural resources, but with limited human capital and lack of agglomeration economies need to be carefully studied and the regional actors need not only to be heard but also to be invited to an inclusive S3 process. The cases discussed enlighten the need to address S3 as an overarching framework for territorial development based on the integration of complementary policies. |
| Keywords: | Regional Policy, Smart Specialisation, Sparsely Populated Areas, territorial diversity, place-based approach, policy integration |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc98691&r=net |
| By: | Barrot Araya,Luis Diego; Calderon,Cesar; Serven,Luis |
| Abstract: | Deepening real and financial integration of developing countries into the world economy has prompted renewed interest in the contribution of external shocks to their macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper revisits the issue using four decades of annual data for a large sample of developing countries. The paper implements a conditionally-homogeneous panel vector autoregression with exogenous variables to model GDP fluctuations in these countries. It uses sign restrictions to identify four external structural shocks -? demand, supply, monetary, and commodity shocks -? and analyzes how their impact on growth is shaped by countries'policy and structural framework. External shocks are found to account for a small share of the forecast error variance of GDP, especially at short horizons. However, their contribution has been on the rise in recent decades. Further, global monetary shocks have become the leading external source of GDP volatility in developing countries. The paper presents a quantitative assessment of the effects of real and financial opening up, as well as those of commodity specialization, on the impact of external shocks on GDP. The results suggest that increasing openness can account for the increasing trend in the volatility attributable to external shocks, as well as the changing roles of different shocks. Moreover, commodity-intensive developing countries are found to be more vulnerable than the rest to all types of external shocks, not just commodity shocks. |
| Keywords: | Currencies and Exchange Rates,Free Trade,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7711&r=net |
| By: | Kayis-Kumar, Ann |
| Abstract: | The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (‘OECD’) is currently considering best practice approaches to designing rules to prevent base erosion and profit shifting (‘BEPS’) by multinational enterprises (‘MNEs’). However, the OECD makes a distinction between combating BEPS and reducing distortions between the tax treatment of various methods of financing. Yet, an unequal tax treatment can create distortions, which incentivises tax planning behaviour. Accordingly, this paper aims to improve the tax design of anti-avoidance rules governing MNEs’ cross-border intercompany deductions by introducing the concept of the tax-induced cross-border funding bias. To date, the literature has focussed on the debt bias, which arises from the distortion in the tax treatment between debt and equity financing. On the other hand, the funding bias also includes licensing and leasing activities in addition to debt and equity financing. This presents a novel contribution to the literature. This paper examines the conceptual case for why is might be appropriate and feasible to restrict the tax deductibility of cross-border intercompany interest, dividends, royalties and lease payments given their mobility and fungibility. Specifically, it examines whether it is preferable for MNEs to be subject to economic rent taxation, as is attained through reform proposals such as the Allowance for Corporate Equity (‘ACE’), in this context. This presents a novel proposal for taxing cross-border intercompany economic rents which aligns with the main aim of corporate tax harmonisation; namely: to reduce, if not remove, distortions relating to the taxation of cross-border intercompany activities. |
| Keywords: | OECD, BEPS, Transfer pricing, Multinational, Economic rent taxation |
| JEL: | C6 C61 H2 H20 H25 H26 K0 K00 |
| Date: | 2015–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71615&r=net |
| By: | Dragoș Adăscăliței; Ștefan Guga |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the evolution of industrial relations in Romania since the onset of the crisis from a multilevel perspective. It shows that the crisis has contributed to a significant decline in the power of trade unions at the national and sectoral levels as employers capitalized on weaknesses the union movement had accumulated during the previous decade. We discuss why the repeated attempts by unions to block labour marketreforms or to push for the government to roll them back once they were adopted have been unsuccessful. For national union confederations, these shifts have rendered the question of reconsidering their relation with local constituencies and organizations positioned lower down the union hierarchy more urgent than ever. In this context of problematic labour relations at the national level, we find the local picture to be more nuanced. By looking at the example of the Romanian automotive industry, a traditional stronghold for trade unions, we analyse how trade unions defend their interests at the local level. We find that variation in union success between assembly plants depends on the power resources that local unions themselves possess and that immediate union success or failure has progressively become uncoupled from supralocal resources and forms of organization. For local unions, the sweeping reforms after the onset of the crisis have nonetheless emphasized the need to reconnect with the national union movement and secure an influence on supralocal decision-making processes. |
| Keywords: | economic crisis, automotive industry, trade unions, Romania |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:39&r=net |
| By: | Drechsler,Mareile Beate Stephanie; Soer,Wolter |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the use of early warning tools as part of Ethiopia's Disaster Risk Management framework. Analyzing, in particular, the Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection tool, Livelihood Integrated Assessment and Hotspots Assessments, the paper delineates the scope and objectives of existing early warning tools, their commonalities and limitations. From a disaster risk financing and insurance perspective, the paper investigates possible enhancements in the existing early warning framework and its use that could facilitate greater timeliness of drought response. The paper argues that based on the existing early warning instruments and continued improvements to the early warning systems, it is possible to enable early action during the onset of a drought. |
| Keywords: | Safety Nets and Transfers,Regional Economic Development,Food&Beverage Industry,Hazard Risk Management,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7716&r=net |
| By: | Kappler, Marcus; Schleer, Frauke |
| Abstract: | The authors analyze 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress which are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a "Periphery Banking Crisis" factor, a "Stress" factor and a "Yield Curve" factor seems to explain the bulk of volatility in recent euro area financial sector data. Moreover, by a real-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors - that reflect financial sector conditions - improves forecasts of economic activity at short horizons. |
| Keywords: | financial stress,dynamic factor models,financial crisis,euro area,forecasting |
| JEL: | C38 G01 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201622&r=net |
| By: | C. Thubin; T. Ferrière; E. Monnet; M. Marx; V. Oung |
| Abstract: | Although a forecasting model has very good statistical properties and the mean of the residuals equals zero, it can produce systematic errors during a short period. In the case of regular publications, forecasters want to prevent such a persistence of errors over several periods. For this reason, a safeguard model can be used to inform the forecaster when there is a risk that the standard model (i.e. the best specified model on average) leads to persistent errors over several months or quarters. This paper explains why and how such a safeguard model has been built in order to improve the forecasts of French GDP at the current quarter horizon (nowcasts), which are officially published by the French central bank. The official benchmark model for GDP nowcasts is an aggregated model that relies exclusively on survey in the manufacturing industry. In the long run, this model still has the best performances. On the contrary, the safeguard model is a disaggregated model which features equations for the valued added of 6 sectors. From this example, we provide general remarks on the advantages of disaggregation as well as how such safeguard models can be used in practice. |
| Keywords: | GDP nowcasting; Aggregation; Mixed-frequency data. |
| JEL: | C52 C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:596&r=net |
| By: | Toke S. Aidt (Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, U.K.); Vítor Castro (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE)); Rodrigo Martins (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and Group for Monetary and Fiscal Studies (GEMF)) |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of political ideology on sustainable development, measured as investment in genuine wealth, in a dynamic panel of 79 countries between 1981 and 2013. We find that a switch from a left-wing or centrist government to a right-wing government has a robust positive and statistically significant effect on investment in genuine wealth. We find no evidence of opportunistic cycles in these investments. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable development, Political ideology; Genuine investment. |
| JEL: | C23 D72 I31 O15 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:8/2016&r=net |
| By: | Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Philippon, Thomas; Vayanos, Dimitri |
| Abstract: | We provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the Greek Crisis of 2010. We first benchmark the crisis against all episodes of sudden stops, sovereign debt crises, and lending boom/busts in emerging and advanced economies since 1980. The decline in Greece's output, especially investment, is deeper and more persistent than in almost any crisis on record over that period. We then propose a stylized macro-finance model to understand what happened. We find that a severe macroeconomic adjustment was inevitable given the size of the fiscal imbalance; yet a sizable share of the crisis was also the consequence of the sudden stop that started in late 2009. Our model suggests that the size of the initial macro/financial imbalances can account for much of the depth of the crisis. When we simulate an emerging market sudden stop with initial debt levels (government, private, and external) of an advanced economy, we obtain a Greek crisis. Finally, in recent years, the lack of recovery appears driven by elevated levels of non-performing loans and strong price rigidities in product markets. |
| Keywords: | bank-sovereign loop; DSGE model; fiscal contraction; Greek crisis; price rigidities; sovereign default; sudden stop |
| JEL: | E2 E3 E5 E6 F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11334&r=net |
| By: | Flora Wang (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | SMEs are drivers of economic growth and job creation in developing countries. It is paramount to determine the factors that hinder their growth. This paper uses the Enterprise Survey from the World Bank which covers data from 119 developing countries to investigate the biggest obstacles SMEs are confronting and the determinants that influence the obstacles as perceived by enterprise managers. The results show that SMEs perceive access to finance as the most significant obstacle which hinders their growth. The key determinants among firms’ characteristics are size, age and growth rate of firms as well as the ownership of the firm. The latter – the role of the state in financing SME - is particularly intriguing. External reasons for the financing dilemma are also examined. It is shown that the main barriers to external financing are high costs of borrowing and a lack of consultant support. |
| Keywords: | SMEs, Obstacles to Growth, Financing Dilemma, Developing Countries, firm characteristics, internal and external barriers |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_09&r=net |
| By: | Kuznetsova, A.E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Flegontova, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ptashkina, M.G. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Stapran, Natalia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | With a view to prepare the Comprehensive action plan of Russia’s participation in APEC in 2016-2018, this paper presents proposals on the future Russian contibution to APEC agenda and ways to increase efficiency of current Russian initiatives. It also analizes projects and initiatives, developed by other APEC member economies and highlights the most promising areas of cooperation as well as formats to better promote Russian interests in Asia-Pacific. Finally, the paper contains a list of recommendations which include internal measures, possible projects and initiatives to integrate the key goals and priorities of Russia’s economy into APEC’s agenda. |
| Keywords: | Russia, APEC |
| Date: | 2016–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2541&r=net |
| By: | Bernhard Schmidpeter |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the effect of stress on the survival probability using a child’s death as the triggering event. Employing a propensity score weighted Kaplan-Meier estimator, we are able to explore the associated time pattern of grief without imposing assumptions on the underlying duration process. We find a non-monotonic relationship between time and relative survival rates: decreasing for 13 years after the event and slowly reversing afterward. However, even 19 years after the event bereaved parents have significantly lower survival probabilities compared to the hypothetical case, that the event had not occurred. Investigating the main reason for this development, our results indicate that bereaved parents have a higher probability of dying from natural causes, especially circulatory diseases. Interestingly, our results reveal that bereavement has a stronger impact on fathers, while we find only modest evidence for mothers. This is a novel and surprising finding as males are in general regarded as more stress resilient than females. However, this research shows that this perception is not true. |
| Keywords: | Bereavement, Child death, Death, Adjusted Kaplan Meier |
| JEL: | I12 J14 C41 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1507&r=net |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrei V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | More than twenty years of experience of inflation targeting allows us not only to evaluate the nature of the monetary policy regime, but also the results of its implementation. The findings suggest that the high adaptability of the regime to the specific operating conditions of each country. Active integration of national economies into global economic processes, the increasing role and importance of not only commercial, but also financial relations was the objective factor in determining the attractiveness of the monetary policy regime, not only in developed but also in developing countries. The findings of empirical evidence demonstrates not only the slowdown in consumer prices and reduce its volatility in the framework of inflation targeting (hereinafter - it), including: and in countries exporting raw materials, but also the lack of sustained negative impact on the dynamics of the issue. However, as international experience shows, the monetary authorities and after the transition to the regime of IT retain its presence in the domestic market, which is especially important for developing countries with underdeveloped financial sector and financial markets. |
| Keywords: | inflation targeting, adaptability, national economies |
| Date: | 2015–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:431502&r=net |
| By: | Gvozdeva, Margarita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kazakova, M.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kiblitskaya, T.R. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyubimov, I.L. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Nesterova, K.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we describe the studies in which the authors answer the question of whether the resource-rich economies indeed, systematically fails to take advantage of such manifestations of luck, as the large-scale flows of resource revenues. Is it true that they are growing slower than they would like, and sometimes even slower than the country in which the size of the revenues from natural resources is much less? And the reason for this relatively slow growth? |
| Keywords: | resource-rich economies, economic growth |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2045&r=net |
| By: | Adenot C.; Avisoa E.; Guilmo J.; Offner J.; Point E. |
| Abstract: | Après un exercice 2014 affecté par d’importantes charges exceptionnelles, les résultats de l’année 2015 des six principaux groupes bancaires français1 se sont redressés : - Malgré l’environnement de taux bas et le retour de la volatilité sur les marchés, le produit net bancaire (PNB) agrégé a augmenté de 7,3 % entre 2014 et 2015 ; une partie de cette hausse reflète néanmoins des effets de change parfois importants ainsi que l’impact de la réévaluation de la dette propre de certains groupes ; - Les frais de gestion ont progressé de 5,8 % mais le coefficient d’exploitation s’est réduit de 0,9 point de pourcentage (pt), à 66,4 %, à la faveur d’une plus forte augmentation du PNB ; le coefficient moyen ressortirait toutefois en hausse après retraitement des effets comptables précédemment mentionnés, témoignant d’un environnement économique qui tarde à s’améliorer et rend nécessaire la poursuite de l’ajustement des coûts ; - Le coût du risque, qui s’inscrivait en baisse depuis 2012 et avait marqué une forte diminution entre 2013 et 2014 (-17,8 %), est reparti à la hausse (+2,2 %) sous l’effet notamment de nouvelles provisions pour litiges ou du paiement de pénalités ; - Au final, le résultat net part de groupe (RNPG) s’est redressé pour atteindre 23,7 milliards d’euros en 2015 (+9,4 milliards d’euros par rapport à 2014, soit une hausse de 65,9%) ; retraité des éléments exceptionnels qui avaient affecté l’exercice 2014, le RNPG ressort en hausse de l’ordre de 8 %. Les informations disponibles à la date de rédaction de la présente étude font par ailleurs ressortir des résultats encore solides au premier trimestre 2016, en particulier avec une baisse significative du coût du risque. Malgré cela, la rentabilité sur capitaux propres demeure faible et bien inférieure aux attentes –sans doute trop élevées et injustifiées dans le contexte actuel – des investisseurs. La tendance, déjà observée l’année dernière, de l’amélioration des bilans et du renforcement de la solvabilité se confirme : - Pour la seconde année consécutive, le taux d’encours dépréciés s’inscrit en repli et le taux de provisionnement des encours dépréciés poursuit son redressement engagé depuis mi-2010 ; - La croissance des crédits s’accélère en France et reste bien supérieure à la moyenne en zone euro, où, portée par les actions volontaristes de la Banque centrale européenne, elle est redevenue positive en 2015 après une année 2014 en demi-teinte ; - Les six groupes affichent des ratios Common equity tier 1 (CET1) « full CRR/CRD4 »2 en hausse, ce qui porte le ratio CET1 agrégé des 6 groupes à 12,6 % (+0,7 pt par rapport à 2014). Reconstitué sur la base de concepts à peu près homogènes, le montant de capital CET1 des grands groupes français double entre fin 2008 et juin 2015 ; - Les banques disposent toujours de liquidités abondantes et ont toutes publié des ratios de liquidité à court terme (liquidity coverage ratio – LCR) supérieurs à 100 % à fin décembre 2015. L’amélioration du LCR est d’abord due à une forte augmentation au numérateur de la part des actifs de haute qualité (« high quality liquid assets » ou HQLA) ; - Les ratios crédits / dépôts poursuivent leur décroissance grâce à une progression des dépôts dans un environnement de taux bas (+6 % entre décembre 2014 et décembre 2015) qui s’opère à un rythme plus soutenu que celui des crédits (+2 % sur 1 an). Malgré ces progrès, des risques persistent, qui pèsent sur la rentabilité des établissements : - Les taux durablement bas, voire négatifs, érodent la marge nette d’intérêt des banques, qui est en outre pénalisée par l’inertie de la rémunération de l’épargne règlementée. Dans ce contexte, les banques pourraient être tentées de s’orienter vers des activités relativement plus rentables mais aussi plus risquées, ce qui pourrait, à l’avenir, peser sur le coût du risque. Par ailleurs, une remontée brutale des taux d’intérêt pourrait fragiliser les marges d’intérêt dès lors que la rémunération des actifs s’ajusterait moins rapidement que les coûts du passif ; - Le contexte macroéconomique mondial, que ce soit la faiblesse de la croissance dans les pays émergents, la baisse du prix des matières premières ou les conséquences des incertitudes politiques en Europe (cf. par exemple le référendum britannique) constituent d’autres facteurs à surveiller ; - Couplés à la mise en oeuvre des nouvelles réglementations, ces risques pourraient peser sur les conditions de refinancement des banques alors même qu’elles doivent émettre d’importants volumes de dette éligible en matière de résolution ; - Enfin, les banques sont contraintes de s’interroger sur leurs business models, principalement celui de leur banque de détail qui sera probablement confrontée à des ajustements très significatifs dans les années à venir. Il s’agit non seulement de tenir compte de l’ensemble des nouvelles réglementations et contrer l’érosion des marges d’intérêt, mais aussi de faire face aux nouveaux enjeux liés à la digitalisation de l’économie, avec notamment les changements des usages des clients et l’entrée de nouveaux acteurs sur le marché, comme les Fintechs. |
| Keywords: | produit net bancaire, charges d’exploitation, coefficient d’exploitation, coût du risque, résultat net, ratio de solvabilité, key risk indicators. |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:analys:63&r=net |
| By: | Masaaki Fujii (Quantitative Finance Course, Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo); Akihiko Takahashi (Quantitative Finance Course, Graduate School of Economics, The University of Tokyo) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose a new numerical computation scheme for Markovian backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) by connecting the semi-analytic short-term approximation applied to each time interval, which has a very simple form to implement. We give the error analysis for BSDEs which have generators of quadratic growth with respect to the control variables and bounded terminal conditions. Although the scheme requires higher regularities than the standard method, one can avoid altogether time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation or other numerical integration for estimating conditional expectations at each space-time node. We provide numerical examples of quadratic-growth (qg) BSDEs as well as standard Lipschitz BSDEs to illustrate the proposed scheme and its empirical convergence rate. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf387&r=net |
| By: | Masaaki Fujii; Akihiko Takahashi |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose a new numerical computation scheme for Markovian backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) by connecting the semi-analytic short-term approximation applied to each time interval, which has a very simple form to implement. We give the error analysis for BSDEs which have generators of quadratic growth with respect to the control variables and bounded terminal conditions. Although the scheme requires higher regularities than the standard method, one can avoid altogether time-consuming Monte Carlo simulation or other numerical integration for estimating conditional expectations at each space-time node. We provide numerical examples of quadratic-growth (qg) BSDEs as well as standard Lipschitz BSDEs to illustrate the proposed scheme and its empirical convergence rate. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.04285&r=net |
| By: | Das,Maitreyi |
| Abstract: | The idea of social inclusion has garnered considerable attention, especially in the context of two recent developments: the Sustainable Development Goals and the heightened attention to inequality. This paper reviews the manner and extent to which social inclusion is addressed in the first 17 Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs), which are ex ante, country-level assessments conducted by the World Bank Group, ahead of the preparation of its Country Partnership Frameworks. In addition to this primary purpose, the paper fulfils three other purposes. It allows for a broader reflection on the value of the social inclusion construct in macro-level diagnostics; it takes the opportunity to develop and refine a methodology to assess social inclusion and finally, it positions the narrative on social inclusion into the ongoing discourse on poverty, shared prosperity, inequality and the thinking around the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. It is therefore, a refined articulation of the idea of social inclusion in the context of global epistemological shifts |
| Keywords: | Banks&Banking Reform,Race in Society,Disability,Social Cohesion,Population Policies |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7713&r=net |
| By: | Anna Fräßdorf; Mathis Fräßdorf |
| Abstract: | Despite of its relevance for science policy and the scientific community, empirical research on doctoral education in Germany is sparse. The few papers available face challenges in the sampling approach: simple random sampling is not possible, because a universal register of PhD candidates in Germany does not exist yet. This article focuses on the issues related to possible data collections for the purpose of research with respect to PhD candidates in Germany. We first outline which official information on doctoral candidates is currently available. We then give an overview of the main German survey studies on doctoral candidates with a focus on their respective sampling strategies. Finally, we discuss the three approaches which conceivably enable researchers to conduct statistical inference on the population of doctoral candidates in Germany: sampling via stratified clusters based on universities or faculties, sampling based on a screening approach, and respondent driven sampling. |
| Keywords: | Doctoral education, science policy, PhD candidates, sampling, data collection |
| JEL: | C83 I23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1587&r=net |
| By: | Francesco Saraceno (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the performance of the European Central Bank (ECB) during the crisis that started in 2008. The ECB statute is consistent with a view of the economy that was predominant in the 1990s, a view that postulates a very limited role for discretional policies in managing the business cycle. The ECB had therefore to stretch its mandate on several occasions during the crisis to avoid severe outcomes. It was unable to avoid a slow but inexorable slide of the Eurozone towards deflation and a liquidity trap. To restore robust growth, fiscal policy should be used, and institutions should be redesigned away from the Washington Consensus framework that shaped the Maastricht Treaty. Better rules for fiscal governance and a widening of the ECB mandate are proposed. |
| Keywords: | Employment policy; Economic recession; Low income; Financial market |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/60msq70is4953b2qsr30bh7c11&r=net |
| By: | Aradhna Aggarwal |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) on the dynamic capabilities of implementing firms in India. While doing so, it uses three indicators of firms' dynamic capabilities: R&D expenditures to sales ratio, fuel consumption to sales ratio and total factor productivity growth. It moves away from the analysis of technology transfer claims made in either Project Development Documents or primary surveys to use actual information on firms' performance for the analysis. A difference-in-difference design is used by defining CDM-implementing firms as the treatment group and non-CDM firms as the control group for the pre- and post-CDM implementation periods. We control for unobserved fixed effects of firms and time periods and observed characteristics of firms and CDM projects. The analysis draws on the balance sheet data of 612 firms from India between 2001 and 2012 from the PROWESS database. Our results reveal that the CDM implementation does not have significant outcome effects on the dynamic capabilities of firms. Much depends on the type and size of the project, and size of the firm. |
| Keywords: | CDM, Dynamic capability, R&D, Fuel efficiency, Total factor productivity, India |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snd:wpaper:105&r=net |
| By: | Lööf, Hans (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Mairesse, Jacques (CREST-ENSAE, Paris and UNU-MERIT Maastricht); Mohnen, Pierre (UNU-MERIT Maastricht) |
| Abstract: | In year 1998, the seminal study Research Innovation and Productivity: An Econometric Analysis at the Firm Level, commonly labeled CDM (the acronym of the three authors’ names, Crépon, Duguet and Mairesse), was published in this journal. The empirical framework, presented there, following on ideas in the research of Zvi Griliches at the NBER and is one of the most influential contributions in recent literature on economics of innovation. The original CDM paper and papers inspired by its framework have received hundreds of citations in the empirical innovation literature. Whether directly linked or not to the CDM framework, the flow of studies improving on and enlarging the scope and methods of the empirical literature on R&D, innovation and productivity is continuing. Some of them, for example, focus on financing innovation, or innovation and employment, or innovation and trade, or competition, or intellectual property; some adopt a managerial perspective, or an innovation system approach in a Schumpeterian tradition, etc. This introduction to the special issue of EINT surveys a collection of 12 papers on the CDM model by 25 authors from eight countries. The papers take stock of the evolution of research based on the original CDM model launched 20 years ago, linking it to the previous literature, and proposing developments and generalizations of it in various dimensions. |
| Keywords: | CDM; R&D; innovation; productivity; micro-econometrics |
| JEL: | C30 D24 O30 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0442&r=net |
| By: | Chatain, Olivier; Meyer-Doyle, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Research summary We examine how human-capital-intensive firms deploy their human assets and how firm-specific human capital interacts with incentives to influence this deployment. Our empirical context is the UK M&A legal market, where micro-data enable us to observe the allocation of lawyers to M&A mandates under different incentive regimes. We find that law firms actively equalize the workload among their lawyers to seek efficiency gains while ‘stretching’ lawyers with high firmspecific capital to a greater extent. However, lawyers with high firm-specific capital also appear to influence the staffing process in their favor, leading to unbalanced allocations and less sharing of projects and clients. Paradoxically, law firms may adopt a seniority-based rent-sharing system that weakens individual incentives to mitigate the impact of incentive conflicts on resource deployment. Managerial summary The study highlights the dilemmas when professional service firms allocate their key individuals to incoming projects and the role that monetary incentives play in aggravating or alleviating these dilemmas. In the context of UK M&A law firms we find that partners have a tendency to be attached to too many projects and not to share enough work, which is exacerbated when individual monetary incentives are stronger. Firms adopting a seniority based incentive system (lockstep system) are able to alleviate this effect. This implies that there is a tradeoff between rewarding personal performance versus balancing workloads and fostering collaboration among professionals. |
| Keywords: | Human-Capital-Intensive Firms; Human Capital; Managerial Dilemmas; Incentives; Capabilities; Micro-foundations; Mergers and Acquisitions; Law firms |
| Date: | 2015–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1120&r=net |
| By: | Gerards, Ruud (ROA / Training and employment); Welters, Ricardo |
| Abstract: | Research shows that financial pressure – implied as a consequence of benefit sanctions or exhaustion – prompts the unemployed to intensify their job search. However, there is less agreement about whether that intensified job search produces better quality job outcomes. Building on Self-Determination Theory we posit that financial pressure is a controlled motivator to search for work. Controlled motivators are conducive to goal pursuit (job search activity), yet unfavorable to goal achievement (job search success and job quality). Using the HILDA longitudinal data for Australia, we are able to include direct measures of both financial pressure (cash flow problems and hardship), objective job quality (hourly pay and hours worked) as well as subjective job quality (satisfaction with pay and hours). We find that financial pressure intensifies job search without improving the job find rate and job quality outcomes if a job is secured. Interestingly, if a job is secured the unemployed who searched under financial pressure perceive the job to be of lower quality (in terms of satisfaction with pay and hours worked) even though objectively (in terms of actual pay and hours worked) it is similar to the jobs found by the unemployed who searched without financial pressure. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | job search, job quality, financial pressure, hardship, unemployment, motivation |
| JEL: | J64 J08 J28 J32 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umaror:2016008&r=net |
| By: | Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy (Cornell University); Fields, Gary S. (Cornell University); Kanbur, Ravi (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an overlapping generations multi‐sector model of the labor market for developing countries with three heterogeneities – heterogeneity within self‐employment, heterogeneity in ability, and heterogeneity in age. We revisit an iconic paradox in a class of multi‐sector labor market models in which the creation of high‐wage employment exacerbates unemployment. Our richer setting allows for generational differences in the motivations for job search to be reflected in two distinct inverted U‐shaped relationships between unemployment and high‐wage employment, one for youth and a different one for adults. In turn, the relationship between overall unemployment and high‐wage employment is shown to be non‐monotonic and multi‐peaked. The model also sheds light on the implications of increasing high‐wage employment on self‐employed workers, who make up most of the world's poor. Non‐monotonicity in unemployment notwithstanding, increasing high‐wage employment has an unambiguous positive impact on high‐paying self‐employment, and an unambiguous negative impact on free‐entry (low‐wage) self‐employment. |
| Keywords: | multisector labor market, overlapping generations, poverty reduction, Harris‐Todaro model |
| JEL: | O17 I32 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9972&r=net |
| By: | Patrick Wallis; Justin Colson; David Chilosi |
| Abstract: | Accounts of structural change in the pre-modern British economy vary substantially. We present the first time series of male labour sectoral shares before 1800, using a large sample of probate and apprenticeship data to produce national and county-level estimates. England experienced a rapid decline in the agricultural share between the early seventeenth and the beginning of the eighteenth centuries, associated with rising agricultural and especially industrial productivity; Wales saw only limited changes. Our results provide further evidence of early structural change, highlighting the significance of the mid-seventeenth century as a turning point in English economic development. |
| Keywords: | Labour force; sectoral distribution; labour productivity; Britain; Wales |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:66816&r=net |
| By: | Raju Huidrom; M. Ayhan Kose; Jamus J. Lim; Franziska L. Ohnsorge |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions of governments using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model and a large dataset of advanced and developing economies. Our methodology permits us to trace the endogenous relationship between fiscal multipliers and fiscal positions while maintaining enough degrees of freedom to draw sharp inferences. We report three major results. First, the fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions: the multipliers tend to be larger when fiscal positions are strong (i.e. when government debt and deficits are low) than weak. For instance, the long run multiplier can be as large as unity when fiscal position is strong, while it can be negative when the fiscal position is weak. Second, these effects are separate and distinct from the impact of the business cycle on the fiscal multiplier. Third, the state-dependent effects of the fiscal position on multipliers is attributable to two factors: an interest rate channel through which higher borrowing costs, due to investors'increased perception of credit risks when stimulus is implemented from a weak initial fiscal position, crowd out private investment; and, a Ricardian channel through which households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal multipliers, fiscal position, state-dependency, Ricardian channel, interest rate channel, business cycle |
| JEL: | E62 H50 H60 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-35&r=net |
| By: | Yannis M. Ioannides; Christopher Pissarides |
| Abstract: | Greece's "supply" problems have been present since its accession to the European Union in 1981; the "demand" problems caused by austerity and wage cuts have compounded the structural problems. This paper discusses the severity of the demand contraction, examines product market reforms, many of which have not been implemented, and their potential impact competitiveness and the economy, and labor market reforms, many of which have been implemented but due to their timing have contributed to the collapse of demand. The paper argues in favor of eurozone-wide policies that would help Greece recover and of linking reforms with debt relief. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0819&r=net |
| By: | Yating, Zeng; Yanhong, Jin; Zhong, Tang |
| Abstract: | China maintains a steady yield increase in the past three decades, but farm production is undergoing a great change, especially in the recent decade, due to the change in both economic conditions and the environment along with a sharp decline of rural labor and farming population. Agricultural mechanization, especially agricultural mechanization services (AMS), gains its popularity in recent years. This study examines the adoption of agricultural mechanization, using either self-equipped machinery or AMS; and the factors contributing to the adoption of different types of agricultural mechanization. The empirical analysis uses primary survey data and employs a seemingly unrelated regression model. We find that the agricultural labor endowment improves the adoption of agricultural mechanization, but off-farm labor curbs the adoption. In terms of the land endowment, we find an inverse U-shaped non-linear relationship between the land endowment and the AMS adoption, and land fragmentation reduces the mechanization adoption. |
| Keywords: | Labor, Land Endowment, Mechanization of Agricultural Production, Agricultural Machinery Service (AMS), Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236367&r=net |
| By: | Anna Matas (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona & Barcelona Institute of Economics (IEB)); José-Luis Raymond (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Andrés Domínguez (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the role that technological change and car characteristics have played in the rate of fuel consumption of vehicles over time. Using data from the Spanish car market from 1988 to 2013, we estimate a reduced form equation that relates fuel consumption with a set of car characteristics. The results for the sales-weighted sample of vehicles show that energy efficiency would have improved by 32% and 40% for petrol and diesel cars respectively had car characteristics been held constant at 1988 values. However, the shift to bigger and more fuel-consuming cars reduced the gains from technological progress. Additionally, using the results of the fuel equation we show that, besides a natural growth rate of 1.1%, technological progress is affected by both the international price of oil and the adoption of mandatory emission standards. Moreover, according to our estimations, a 1% growth in GDP would modify car characteristics in such a way that fuel consumption would increase by around 0.23% for petrol cars and 0.35% for diesel cars. |
| Keywords: | fuel efficiency, technological change, car characteristics |
| JEL: | L62 Q50 R4 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2016-15&r=net |
| By: | Beatriz García Osma (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Belén Gill de Albornoz Noguer (Universitat Jaume I); Elena De las Heras Cristobal (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | We study the strategies, timing and relative outcomes obtained by companies that attempt to shop for more favorable audit opinions both at the firm and at the partner level. Using a uniquely long time series of Spanish firms’ data, we employ the Lennox's (2000) methodology and find evidence of successful opinion-shopping through voluntary firm switching. In contrast, our results suggest that voluntary audit partner switches are associated with a fresh eye effect. Additionally, we document that firm switching activity is more likely when prior attempts to shop for an opinion were unsuccessful. Finally, we show that the fresh eyes effect associated with partner switching disappears when partner rotation becomes mandatory; and that under such a regulatory setting firm-level opinion-shopping is still pervasive. Estudiamos las estrategias empresariales para conseguir informes de auditoria con opiniones mas favorables, tanto a nivel de firma como de socio. Utilizando la metodología de Lennox (2000) y la comparación entre la opinión pre y post cambio de auditor, proporcionamos evidencia de la existencia de compra de opinión a través del cambio voluntario de firma de auditoría. Sin embargo, los resultados sugieren que los cambios voluntarios del socio de auditoría están asociados con un efecto "ojos frescos". Además, los cambios de firma son más probables cuando previamente se han producido intentos de compra de opinión que no han tenido éxito. Finalmente, se proporciona evidencia de que el efecto "ojos frescos" asociado a los cambios voluntarios de socio desaparece cuando la rotación del socio es obligatoria; y que la compra de opinión a nivel de firma sigue existiendo en un contexto de rotación obligatoria del socio. |
| Keywords: | compra de opinión; cambio de auditor; opinión con salvedades; rotación obligatoria del socio. opinion-shopping, auditor switches, modified audit reports, mandatory partner rotation. |
| JEL: | M42 M48 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ivi:wpasec:2016-02&r=net |
| By: | Cateau, Gino (Bank of Canada); Shukayev, Malik (University of Alberta, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the desirability of history-dependent policy frameworks when the central bank cannot perfectly commit to maintain a level target path. Specifically, we consider a central bank that seeks to implement optimal policy under commitment in a simple New Keynesian model via a price-level (or nominal GDP level) target rule. However, the central bank retains the option to reset its target path if the social cost of not doing so exceeds a certain threshold. We find that endowing the central bank with the discretion to optimally reset its target path weakens the effectiveness of the history dependent framework to stabilize the economy through expectations. The endogenous nature of credibility brings novel results relative to models where the timing of target resets is exogenous. First, the central bank needs a high degree of policy credibility to realize the stabilization benefits associated with committing to a price-level target. In our benchmark calibration, the price-level target must be expected to last for 10 years to bridge three quarters of the welfare gap between discretion and full commitment. Second, there is a possibility of multiple equilibria. Indeed, it is possible to have a high credibility equilibrium where the probability of resetting the target is small. But it is also possible to have a low credibility equilibrium where the target is reset much more frequently leading inflation and output to be permanently more volatile. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy commitment; price-level targeting; nominal-income targeting; multiple equilibria; policy credibility |
| JEL: | E31 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2016_007&r=net |
| By: | Gabriele Tondl (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | The sluggish development of corporate lending has remained the central concern of EU monetary policy makers as it is considered to hinder seriously the resurgence of growth. This paper looks at the development of loans to large corporations vs SMEs in the pre-crisis and post-crisis period and wishes to answer: (i) to which extent do allocated loan volumes actually contribute to output growth? (ii) which factors determine the development of loans, considering above all loan interest rates? and (iii) what causes differences in loan interest levels across the EA? The results indicate that different loan developments in the EA explain very well differences in output development, loans to SMEs contribute even more to output growth than those for large corporations. Loan development itself is negatively influenced by the interest level which differs significantly across EA members, with small loans in addition always being charged an interest premium over large loans. The capitalization of banks, the size of banks and their internationalization play a role as well. A part of the sluggish growth of loans can be explained by the increasing use of alternative financial instruments by large firms. Interest rates in turn are following the ECB interest rate, - but this link has become looser in the post-crisis period, and long term government bond rates. Different risks faced by banks and different bank structures have become important explanatories of interest rates in the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | Corporate lending, Credit market fragmentation, Interest pass-through, Bank lending rates, Finance and growth, Euro Area |
| JEL: | E40 E43 E44 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp227&r=net |
| By: | Markus Brueckner; Hans Peter Gruener |
| Abstract: | We argue that the growth rate, but not the level of aggregate income, affects the support for political extremism. In our model extreme parties offer benefits to a subset of the population; and there exists uncertainty over whether the same subset of individuals will receive these benefits in the future. Based on a panel of 16 European countries, our empirical analysis shows that lower growth rates are associated with a significant increase in right-wing extremism. We do not find a systematic effect on left-wing extremism. Uncertainty over what group will have incomes expropriated in the future may explain these results. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Political Extremism |
| JEL: | O40 O52 P16 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2016-639&r=net |
| By: | Miniaoui, Hela; Schilirò, Daniele |
| Abstract: | The region of Gulf Arab states has vast reserves of petroleum that make it a vital source of the global economy. The reduction in oil prices and, in general, their high volatility pose strong challenges to the GCC economies. In the present contribution we argue that innovation and entrepreneurship can be the main drivers to diversify and develop the GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE). In fact, in the long-run, diversified economies perform better than mono-sector economies. Moreover, innovation and entrepreneurship are key factors that trigger economic development and contribute to the degree of competitiveness, playing also an important stakeholder role in boosting the overall economic growth rates. Therefore, having an entrepreneurial and innovative capacity is very important in order to facilitate competitiveness and growth in a region such as that of GCC countries. More specifically, in this article we analyze the innovation environment in the GCC countries and their innovation performance. Also we consider the innovation policies, underlining the important role of institutions for innovation. To support our analysis, we take into account of several data and information sources, and surveys. In addition, we provide an overview on entrepreneurship in the GCC countries and grasp the current state of entrepreneurship in these countries. We also aim to identify the conditions to stimulate entrepreneurship and qualify the human capital in order to diversify and develop the non-oil private sector and improve the competitiveness of the GCC economies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Diversification; Competitiveness; Growth; GCC countries |
| JEL: | L10 L26 M13 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71898&r=net |
| By: | Chowdhury, Nasif; Ahsan, Moinul |
| Abstract: | The significance of the material business in the economy of Bangladesh is high. The articles of clothing assembling area earned $19 billion in the year to June 2012, one of the bankrupted country's greatest commercial ventures. At present this industry is confronting awesome difficulties in its development rate. The significant purposes behind these difficulties can be the worldwide subsidence, unfavorable exchange strategies, interior security concerns, the high cost of creation because of expansion in the vitality costs, diverse well being issues uniquely fire, and so forth. Devaluation of Bangladeshi Taka that fundamentally raised the expense of imported inputs, ascend in swelling rate, and high cost of financing has likewise affected truly the development in the material business. Thus neither the purchasers can visit much of the time Bangladesh nor are the exporters ready to travel abroad for viably promoting their items. With a top to bottom examination it was found that the Bangladesh material industry can be brought on top winning track if government and others people takes genuine activities in evacuating or normalizing the aforementioned obstacles. Furthermore, the legislature ought to give endowment to the material business, minimize the inward question among the exporters and pull back the withholding and deals charges and so forth. Acquiring new apparatus or improving the nature of the current hardware and presenting new innovation can likewise be exceptionally helpful in expanding the innovative work (R and D) related exercises that in the advanced period are vital for expanding the modern development of a nation. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, industrial challenges, market competitions, garments industries, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | O1 |
| Date: | 2016–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71907&r=net |
| By: | Beatrice Acciaio; Martin Larsson; Walter Schachermayer |
| Abstract: | Semi-static trading strategies make frequent appearances in mathematical finance, where dynamic trading in a liquid asset is combined with static buy-and-hold positions in options on that asset. We show that the space of outcomes of such strategies can have very poor closure properties when all European options for a fixed date $T$ are available for static trading. This causes problems for optimal investment, and stands in sharp contrast to the purely dynamic case classically considered in mathematical finance. |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.00631&r=net |
| By: | Anagol, Santosh; Balasubramaniam, Vimal; Ramadorai, Tarun |
| Abstract: | Winners of randomly assigned initial public offering (IPO) lottery shares are significantly more likely to hold these shares than lottery losers 1, 6, and even 24 months after the random allocation. This effect persists in samples of wealthy and highly active investors, suggesting along with additional evidence that this type of "endowment effect" is not solely driven by portfolio inertia or wealth effects. The effect decreases as experience in the IPO market increases, but persists even for the most experienced investors. These results suggest that agents'; preferences and/or beliefs about an asset are not independent of ownership, providing field evidence derived from the behavior of 1.5 million Indian stock investors which is in line with the large laboratory literature documenting endowment effects. We evaluate the extent to which prominent models of endowment effects and/or investor behavior can explain our results. A combination of inattention and non-standard preferences (realization utility) or non-standard beliefs (salience based probability distortions) appears most consistent with our findings. |
| Keywords: | causal inference; endowment effect; exchange asymmetry; inattention; India; loss aversion; lotteries; reference dependence; salience |
| JEL: | C93 D12 G11 G14 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11328&r=net |
| By: | Rufyikiri, Gervais |
| Abstract: | This study contributes to understanding the extent of corruption in Burundi, and its consequences for political and economic governance. The last decade, corruption in Burundi was rampant and systemic. It generated political tensions between the state and citizens, it undermined economic development efforts and good governance reforms. Grand corruption involving the ruling party, senior political and administrative officials has induced politicization within the public sector which in turn led to the malfunctioning of anti-corruption institutions, thwarting good governance reforms including the fight against corruption. Corruption is a major factor of instability in Burundi and must be addressed, not as a «principal/agent» problem, but rather as a collective action problem. Some possible actions are proposed in the conclusion. |
| Keywords: | Burundi, corruption |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:201608&r=net |
| By: | Liang, Wenquan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Lu, Ming (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | In cities, complementarity between a low-skilled and a high-skilled workforce can promote each other to improve labor productivity. In this study, we used earlier census data and 1% population survey data to examine the distribution of the skilled workforce in cities in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) along with its changes, and drew the following three conclusions. First, a highly skilled workforce is the engine of urban development, increasing urban wages and population. Second, big cities can promote complementarity between skill sets so that there are greater numbers of high-skilled and low-skilled workers in those cities. This explains why both low-skilled and high-skilled workforces agglomerate in big cities. Last, complementarity between the low-skilled and high-skilled workforce is inhibited in the PRC’s cities because of the biased household registration system (HRS) toward the high-skilled workforce, resulting in limited supply of low-skilled labor. This policy is not conducive to enhance labor productivity in big cities and to carry out its leading role of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | People’s Republic of China; urbanization; urban development; urban system; city; skill complementarities; skill composition; labor productivity; workforce; economic growth; household registration system; human capital; household income; wages; industrialization; education |
| JEL: | J24 J61 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0575&r=net |
| By: | Alexander N. Bogin (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Nataliya Polkovnichenko (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | Assessments of market risk for economic or regulatory capital typically involve calculating a portfolio’s sensitivity to key risk factor movements. Historically, practitioners have focused on two classical sources of risk, adverse changes in interest rates and volatility. As stress testing has evolved, additional risk factors have been identified, including several specific to fixed-income securities with embedded optionality. These include changes in prepayment rates or any of several other market risk factors, which affect option-adjusted spreads (OAS). We describe an empirical framework for generating shocks to prepayment rates and mortgage security OAS, which are consistent with simultaneous movements in other key risk factors, including the term structure of interest rates and implied volatility. Our prepayment rate shocks capture model misspecification and are calculated using historical performance data from multiple vendor prepayment models. These shocks are well defined, but capture only a portion of prepayment model error. Mortgage security OAS serves as a broader measure of model error, which encompasses both, model misspecification and forecasting errors as well as credit and liquidity risk. Our OAS shocks are calculated using historical six-month changes in spreads derived from multiple vendor quotes. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:15-03&r=net |
| By: | Benjamin Held; Hans Diefenbacher; Dorothee Rodenhäuser |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the debate about alternative measures of welfare (“beyond GDP”) has con-siderably gained momentum in Germany. This was the case not only on the national level: The demand for such measures has risen on the federal states level, too. For that reason, and in the context of a study whose main purpose was to calculate the Regional Welfare Index (RWI) for North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), we also analyzed survey data from the So-cio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for NRW and – in order the compare and classify the results – for the rest of Germany. The observation period ranges from 1984 to 2013 (SOEP v30). The re-search topics include satisfaction (life in general/specific areas; current/anticipated), con-cerns, importance, interest for politics and feelings. The evaluation shows among other find-ings that in 2013 the current general life satisfaction (+0,1) and the anticipated general life satisfaction in five years (+0,2) were slightly but significantly higher in NRW than in the rest of Germany. At the same time, people in NRW voiced higher concerns about the issues “im-migration to Germany”, “global terrorism” and “crime in Germany”. At the end of this con-tribution, the trends of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Regional Welfare Index (RWI) and the current general life satisfaction are compared. They differ significantly from each other. |
| Keywords: | Wohlfahrtsmessung, subjektive Indikatoren, Zufriedenheit, SOEP |
| JEL: | D63 D69 I31 I39 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp847&r=net |
| By: | Lietzmann, Torsten (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schmelzer, Paul; Wiemers, Jürgen (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Marginal employment (ME) is one of the largest forms of atypical employment in Germany. In this study, we analyse whether ME has a 'stepping stone' function for unemployed individuals, i.e., whether ME increases the subsequent probability of regular employment. Our study adds to the literature in the following ways. First, compared to previous studies, it analyses the 'stepping stone' function for a more recent time period, i.e., after Germany's major labour-market reforms (Hartz reforms) at the beginning of the 2000s. Second, we use a new administrative data source which includes previously unavailable information on desired labour supply and household composition. Third, we follow recent methodological developments in the evaluation literature by applying a dynamic evaluation approach that has not previously been used to analyse marginal employment. Our results for single and childless unemployment benefit-II recipients highlight the importance of the dynamic approach: We find differing treatment effects by unemployment duration. According to our results, marginal employment does increase the likelihood of regular employment within a three-year observation period only for those unemployed who take up ME several months after beginning to receive benefits. In contrast, for those starting ME within the first months of receiving benefits, there is no effect on the probability of regular employment." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Arbeitslosengeld II-Empfänger, Arbeitsmarktchancen, geringfügige Beschäftigung, Beschäftigungseffekte, sozialversicherungspflichtige Arbeitnehmer, Arbeitsuche, berufliche Reintegration, Leistungsbezug - Dauer, Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien, Administratives Panel SGB II |
| JEL: | J64 J20 J08 C14 |
| Date: | 2016–06–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201618&r=net |
| By: | Rachel Loopstra; Aaron Reeves; Martin McKee; David Stuckler |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity rose sharply in Europe after 2009, but marked variation exists across countries and over time.We test whether social protection programs protected people from food insecurity arising from economic hardship across Europe. Data on household food insecurity covering 21 EU countries from 2004 to 2012 were taken from Eurostat 2015 edition and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Cross-national first difference models were used to evaluate how rising unemployment and declining wages related to changes in the prevalence of food insecurity and the role of social protection expenditure in modifying observed effects. Economic hardship was strongly associated with greater food insecurity. Each 1 percentage point rise in unemployment rates was associated with an estimated 0.29 percentage point rise in food insecurity (95% CI: 0.10 to 0.49). Similarly, each $1000 decreases in annual average wages was associated with a 0.62 percentage point increase in food insecurity (95% CI: 0.27 to 0.97). Greater social protection spending mitigated these risks. Each $1000 spent per capita reduced the associations of rising unemployment and declining wages with food insecurity by 0.05 percentage points (95% CI:−0.10 to−0.0007) and 0.10 (95% CI:−0.18 to−0.006), respectively. The estimated effects of economic hardship on food insecurity became insignificantwhen countries spent more than $10,000 per capita on social protection. Rising unemployment and falling wages are strong statistical determinants of increasing food insecurity, but at high levels of social protection, these associations could be prevented. |
| Keywords: | food insecurity; social protection; recession |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2016–05–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:66829&r=net |
| By: | Ftiti, Zied; Guesmi, Khaled; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; Teulon, Frédéric |
| Abstract: | This article examines the dynamic characteristics of the inflation rate in Tunisia over the last two decades, and particularly following the onset of the Arab Spring in 2010 which causes distortions in this country’s monetary policy. We focus on the two specific dimensions of the Tunisian inflation rate: inflation regimes and persistence. We tackle this issue by adopting an evolutionary spectral approach, initially proposed by Priestley and Tong (1973). Our main findings indicate a stable inflation regime in the last 10 years, with an average inflation rate of around 5.5%. It is also found that the Tunisian inflation experienced a high degree of inertia which reflects its gradual responses to shocks. We also discuss the policy implications of these results, which typically require policy-makers to implement sound institutional reforms to reduce inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Structural break, Spectral analysis, Inflation persistence |
| JEL: | C1 C14 C5 C51 E3 E31 E6 E60 |
| Date: | 2014–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:70481&r=net |
| By: | Thales Augusto Zamberlan Pereira |
| Abstract: | When and why did Brazilian cotton become important to the Industrial Revolution? After 1780, Brazil increased substantially its trade share relative to other cotton suppliers. Between 1791 and 1801, Brazilian cotton represented 40 percent of raw cotton imports in Liverpool, rivalling the West Indies. Using archival data between 1760 and 1808, this paper shows that Brazil benefited from increasing British demand for a new variety of cotton staple that emerged with mechanized textile production. Previous explanations for the rise of Brazilian cotton trade attributed it to the revolutions in the Caribbean in the 1790s, and the American Revolutionary War, which ended in 1783. Evidence, however, suggests that these explanations are incomplete or incorrect. The United States did not export cotton to Britain before 1790, and British imports from the West Indies did not fall after the revolutions. The increase in cotton trade between Brazil and Britain can be explained by four parallel stories: 1) how diplomatic conflicts between Portugal and Britain involving the wine trade increased Brazilian cotton importance in the Portuguese trade balance; 2) how cotton plantations in Brazil managed to respond to Britain’s increasing demand after the 1780s; 3) why the West Indies were not a viable alternative to Brazilian cotton; 4) why the Brazilian cotton staple had natural advantages over initial alternatives for new textile machines in Britain. |
| Keywords: | Cotton Trade, Colonial Brazil, Industrial Revolution. |
| JEL: | N56 N73 N76 |
| Date: | 2016–05–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon9&r=net |
| By: | Wiggins, Steve; Keats, Sharada |
| Abstract: | Most theories of population change and agricultural development, see for example, those of Malthus and Boserup, posit rising rural populations. Across the world, however, rural areas are going through a demographic transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality, while seeing out-migration to urban areas. In some rural areas, populations are no longer growing, but are declining. Even where rural population still grows, much of this reflects inertial growth from former high fertility: in most countries the cohort of rural children aged zero to four is shrinking, presaging future population decline. One important change is that demographic change promotes women’s empowerment in rural areas: fewer pregnancies, coupled with more schooling for girls, give women more scope to work, migrate, earn and gain status and autonomy. A second change is that dependency ratios are falling in rural areas, delivering a demographic dividend that can boost growth. Owing to out-migration, however, labour shortages are being reported for agriculture. That may mean more use of machinery; it will certainly mean higher wages. And it should lead to consolidation of operated areas, even if not concentration of farm ownership. Out-migration from rural areas is likely to persist and intensify in the future. |
| Keywords: | Population, Fertility, Mortality, Migration, Labour, Agricultural and Food Policy, J13 Fertility, Family Planning, Child Care, Children, Youth & J11 Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236366&r=net |
| By: | Mariana Mazzucato (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex.); Gregor Semieniuk (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex.) |
| Abstract: | Accelerating innovation in renewable energy (RE) requires not just more finance, but finance servicing the entire innovation landscape. Given that finance is not "neutral", more information is required on the quality of finance that meets technology and innovation stage-specific financing needs for the commercialization of RE technologies. We investigate the relationship between different financial actors with investment in different RE technologies. We construct a new deal-level dataset of global RE asset finance from 2004 to 2014 based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance data, that distinguishes 10 investor types (e.g. private banks, public banks, utilities) and 11 RE technologies into which they invest. We also construct a heuristic investment risk measure that varies with technology, time and country of investment. We nd that particular investor types have preferences for particular risk levels, and hence particular types of RE. Some investor types invested into far riskier portfolios than others, and financing of individual high-risk technologies depended on investment by specific investor types. After the 2008 financial crisis, state-owned or controlled companies and banks emerged as the high-risk taking locomotives of RE asset finance. We use these preliminary results to formulate new questions for future RE policy, and encourage further research. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy nance, direction of innovation, nancial actor types, deployment, technology risk, investment portfolio |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2016-12&r=net |
| By: | Italo Gutierrez |
| Abstract: | In this study I estimate that about 23% to 47% of older American on-the-job seekers search for another job because they feel insecure at their current employment. I also analyze whether unemployment insurance (UI) affects this relationship between job insecurity and on-the-job search. I find evidence that UI discourages on-the-job search, which in turn reduces the probability of starting a new job at a different employer. The average estimated effects are moderate but they mask important heterogeneities. On one hand, UI does not affect the search behavior of workers who do not believe to be at risk of job loss. These workers make up the majority of the employed population over 50. On the other hand, however, the effects can be substantial for workers with high levels of job insecurity. |
| Keywords: | on-the-job search, unemployment benefits; job loss expectations, control function methods |
| JEL: | J64 J65 D84 |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ran:wpaper:1085-1&r=net |
| By: | Barakatou Atte-Oudeyi; Bruno Kestemont; Jean Luc De Meulemeester |
| Abstract: | In this article, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions per capita due to road transport in order to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. We test an EKC model on a sample of six emerging countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa so-called BRIICS) using yearly data from 2000 to 2010. Empirical results reveal an inverted U-shaped EKC curve relating CO2 emissions per capita due to road transport to the level of economic development (level of GDP percapita). In all models tested, the turning point exceeds the current GDP per capita of the richest country of the group, which means that it would happen virtually in a far future or after a strong growth episode. Results show that the turning point of this EKC for road transport depends on population density and the integration of government effectiveness into the BRIICS’s economic development policy. However, when Russia is omitted from the group, the EKC hypothesis does not hold anymore and CO2 emissions per capita are uniformly increasing with per capita GDP. The main policy implication from our results is that policy makers should not base their policy on the EKC hypothesis: increasing the per capita GDP level alone cannot reduce CO2 emissions per capita from road transport and without a significant change in policy, economic growth will exacerbate CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | BRIICS; Road Transport; Economic Growth; CO2 Emissions; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Panel Data; Pooled OLS Regression Model; Fixed- Effects and Random-Effects Regression Models |
| JEL: | Q53 Q56 Q58 R42 |
| Date: | 2016–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/230810&r=net |
| By: | Olesya Fomenko; Jonathan Gruber |
| Abstract: | Parallel reimbursement regimes, under which providers have some discretion over which payer gets billed for patient treatment, are a common feature of health care markets. In the U.S., the largest such system is under Workers’ Compensation (WC), where the treatment workers with injuries that are not definitively tied to a work accident may be billed either under group health insurance plans or under WC. We document that there is significant reclassification of injuries from group health plans into WC, or “claims shifting”, when the financial incentives to do so are strongest. In particular, we find that injuries to workers enrolled in capitated group health plans (such as HMOs) see a higher incidence of their claims for soft-tissue injuries under WC than under group health, relative to those in non-capitated plans. Such a pattern is not evident for workers with traumatic injuries, which are easier to classify specifically as work related. Moreover, we find that such reclassification is more common in states with higher WC fees, once again for soft tissue but not traumatic injuries. Our results imply that a significant shift towards capitated reimbursement, or reimbursement reductions, under GH could lead to a large rise in the cost of WC plans |
| JEL: | I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22318&r=net |
| By: | Julia Garlick; Murray Leibbrandt; James Levinsohn |
| Abstract: | We estimate the returns to internal migration in South Africa. These appear to be the first nationally representative estimates of the return to migration for any African country-- a somewhat surprising claim for a literature that's over 60 years old. We develop a framework to analyze individual migration in the context of income pooling within endogenously formed households. We apply this framework to estimate the return to migration from the perspective of the migrant (as is typically done) as well as from the perspectives of the sending and receiving households. |
| JEL: | O1 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22326&r=net |
| By: | Jeffrey A. Frankel; Jesse Schreger |
| Abstract: | Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts. When official forecasts are especially optimistic relative to private forecasts ex ante, they are more likely also to be over-optimistic relative to realizations ex post. For example, euro area governments during the period 1999-2007 assiduously and inaccurately avoided forecasting deficit levels that would exceed the 3% Stability and Growth Pact threshold; meanwhile private sector forecasters were not subject to this crude bias. As a result, using private sector forecasts as an input into the government budgeting-making process would probably reduce official forecast errors for budget deficits. |
| JEL: | E62 H68 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22349&r=net |
| By: | Elizabeth Kaletski; Nishith Prakash |
| Abstract: | There are several countries who have responded to concerns regarding historically disadvantaged groups, particularly ethnic and racial minorities and women, with not only anti-discrimination legislation, but also affirmative action policies. Although these policies are seemingly well intentioned, there continues to be little consensus about their actual impact.This paper seeks to examine the current state of the literature on one specific affirmative action policy, political reservation in India. The Indian constitution mandates seats be reserved at various levels of government for political representation of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and women.This paper discusses the existing inequalities across these groups, along with the basic theory behind political reservation in fixing these inequalities, while also recognizing that theory provides many channels through which affirmative action policy can impact a variety of outcomes. Thus we turn to the vast empirical literature on the topic to shed light on what can be learned from the Indian context and how future policy can be reformed and shaped based on these experiences. |
| Keywords: | Minorities |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-052&r=net |
| By: | Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Narkevich, Sergei (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin, Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Study of transformation of the role and tasks of central banks at different stages of economic development allows us to determine the objective conditions underlying the evolution of monetary policy. For developed economies, the opportunity to conduct independent monetary policy becomes one of the major factors that determine the choice of the monetary regime. In addition, according to the international experience, the choice of goals and objectives of central banks both at present time and in the historical perspective is greatly affected by the degree of financial openness of the country and the development of its financial sector. While countries become more integrated in the world economy, their central banks shifted priorities, firstly, to achieve and maintain price stability, and, secondly, to increase the flexibility of exchange rate formation. The findings on the evolution of the goals and objectives of the central banks of developed and developing countries reveal the most suitable monetary policy regime for the Russian central bank. |
| Keywords: | central banks, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2016–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2136&r=net |
| By: | Michele Raitano (Department of Economics and Law); Francesco Vona (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between family background and earnings using relative social mobility to decompose residual background correlations, namely the effect of background on earnings left after controlling for background-related intervening factors. Using the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions for 8 countries, we first show that country differences in terms of intergenerational inequality concern residual background correlations and then decompose these correlations using changes in relative social positions. In immobile countries, we find that significant residual correlations are mainly driven by penalisation of upward mobility in the UK (glass ceiling) and by an insurance against downward mobility in Spain and Italy (parachute). In mobile countries, insignificant residual correlations mask heterogeneous returns to social mobility. While our findings for Southern countries hardly concur with human capital theory, the widespread emergence of glass ceiling effects appears to be consistent with this theory. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational inequality; Returns to intergenerational occupational mobility; International comparison; Relative social positions |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4rs0hmrl0s8farskm2usmmbu0s&r=net |
| By: | Hasnul, Al Gifari; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Capital flight resulting from hot money has been a popular issue recently. The effect of capital flight is unquestionably bad to the domestic economic condition. The current global economic slowdown exposes a bigger risk of capital flight to developing countries. Likewise, the causal relationship of capital flight and political stability as well as exchange rate stability is not clearly observed yet in the literature. This paper aims to analyse this issue and fill the research gap. Our paper extends previous studies by using another measure of political risk index, and also exchange rate stability has not been really examined by previous studies in the case of capital flight. A more focused study on one country may give a direct policy implication to the policymakers of the country, rather than a panel data study. We employed time-series data of Indonesia for 35 years from 1980 to 2015 and use ARDL procedure, which is really suitable for our research objectives and sample used, to analyse the data. We find that political risk plays a significant role in affecting the magnitude of capital flight. Furthermore, the results show that both capital flight and exchange rate stability are endogenous variables, and movement in one variable will affect the movement of another variable. Our main suggestion for the policy makers to prevent capital flight is to maintain political and exchange rate stability in the country. In short, preventing capital flight is all about maintaining domestic stability, either political stability or economic stability. |
| Keywords: | Capital Flight; Political Stability; Exchange Rate Stability; ARDL bounds tests |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72086&r=net |
| By: | Peo Hansen |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD’s Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on “Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe”. This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002 / 30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper (DELSA/ELSA/MI(2015)2) was presented and discussed at the OECD Working Party on Migration in June 2015. This paper presents an overview and analysis of the policy development at the EU level regarding external labour migration (ELM). It reviews the shift in ELM policy at the EU level by examining documents and debates. It looks at the treatment of ELM, setting out from the Amsterdam Treaty and then follows the development up to the present, paying close attention to the evolving rational for increasing ELM. The difference between the horizontal approach and the sectoral approach is explained. The major ELM Directives under the sectoral approach are presented and discussed in terms of how they were negotiated and how they fit into the overall ELM policy strategy. The document concludes by identifying current political challenges for expanding the EU approach beyond its present form. |
| JEL: | F22 K37 N44 |
| Date: | 2016–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:185-en&r=net |
| By: | John List; Steven Levitt; Tova Levin |
| Abstract: | The wealthiest 10% of donors now give 90% of charitable dollars in the U.S., but little is known about what motivates them. This study uses a natural field experiment, tracking over five thousand high capacity donors, to lend preliminary insights into the world of high capacity givers. On some dimensions, high capacity donors mirror modal donors: there is persistence in giving patterns, signals of program quality influence giving, and the price of giving is not unduly important. Unlike typical small donors, the givers in our data respond only on the intensive margin, and often with a longer time lag. Our study highlights the value to practitioners of partnering with academics, as our intervention has generated $30 million in incremental donations to the University. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:feb:natura:00409&r=net |
| By: | Uddin, Md Akther; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Since the end of World War II, Muslim countries have been plagued by sixteen major wars, many coups, political, religious and ethnic insurgency, and revolutions. While many developing countries in southeast Asia have emerged as developed economy in this time period, in spite of having sufficient natural resources, most of the Muslim countries are still fighting with higher inflation, unemployment, poverty, inequality, poor healthcare, illiteracy, and rampant corruption. This paper studies how political stability affects growth in OIC countries by using relatively advanced dynamic GMM and simultaneous quantile regression. It is found that political stability has significant positive effect on growth. The impact of political stability on economic growth is more important for lower income countries than higher income countries. Most of the low to mid income oil dependent OIC countries suffer from chronic misery, higher inflation and persistent unemployment, which has significant negative effect on growth. Oil revenue plays a major role in economic growth for both OIC and Non-OIC oil dependent developing countries. The importance of political stability, economic diversification and macroeconomic stability has been restated with policy recommendations for oil dependent developing countries in general and OIC countries in particular. |
| Keywords: | political stability, economic growth, misery index, oil rent, OIC countries, dynamic GMM, Quantile regression 1Md |
| JEL: | C58 O11 |
| Date: | 2016–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71678&r=net |
| By: | Nobuhiro Abe (Bank of Japan); Yojiro Ito (Bank of Japan); Ko Munakata (Bank of Japan); Shinsuke Ohyama (Bank of Japan); Kimiaki Shinozaki (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines pricing patterns over the product life-cycle and quality growth at the time of product turnover regarding a wide range of durable consumer goods sold in Japan. Applying hedonic regressions with time dummies to large granular data sets obtained from Kakaku.com, the most popular price comparison website in Japan, we find out that sellers tend to raise product prices more than those justified by quality improvements to ensure the profitability at product turnover. A glance at the pricing patterns reveals that the prices of new products decrease gradually with the elapse of time, however, the pace of falling in prices varies considerably among commodities. The quality improvement ratio, which measures the contribution of quality growth to the price difference between matched pair of a new product and an old one by commodities, exhibits a unimodal distribution slightly fat-tailed to the right. The mode value of the distribution is about 0.5-0.6 for home electrical appliances and about 0.6-0.7 for digital consumer electronics. Those results provide an empirical support to the existing quality adjustment method in the field of the price index, so-called 50% rule, which has been implemented by some statistical agencies. Our findings bring significant implications for improving quality adjustment methods under uncertainty of quality evaluation and lead to the better understanding of the firms' price setting behavior. |
| Keywords: | price index; quality adjustment; price setting; hedonic approach |
| JEL: | C43 D22 L15 |
| Date: | 2016–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e05&r=net |
| By: | Mario Lackner; Rudi Stracke; Uwe Sunde; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically whether decision makers are forward looking in dynamic strategic interactions. In particular, we test whether decision makers in multi-stage tournaments take heterogeneity induced changes of continuation values and the ability of their immediate opponent into account when choosing effort. Using data from professional and semi-professional basketball tournaments, we find that effort is negatively affected by the ability of the current opponent, consistent with the theoretical prediction and previous evidence. More importantly, the results indicate that the expected relative strength in future interactions does affect behavior in earlier stages, which provides support for the ‘standard’ view that decision makers are forward looking in dynamic strategic interactions. |
| Keywords: | Promotion tournament; multi-stage contest; elimination; forward-looking behavior; heterogeneity |
| JEL: | D84 D90 M51 J33 |
| Date: | 2015–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:cdlwps:wp1509&r=net |
| By: | Andrew C. Shaver (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | The unemployed are often inculpated in the production of violence during conflict. A simple yet common argument describes these individuals as disaffected and inclined to perpetrate affectively motivated violence. A second holds that they are drawn to violent political organizations for lack of better outside options. Yet, evidence in support of a general positive relationship between unemployment and violence during conflict is not established. Drawing from a large body of psychological research, I argue that a basic but important relationship has been overlooked: Loss of employment, rather than rendering individuals angry, increases feelings of depression, anxiety, helplessness, and belief in the power of others. Members of this segment of society are more likely than most to reject the use of violence. Drawing on previously unreleased data from a major, multi-million dollar survey effort carried out during the Iraq war, I uncover evidence that psychological findings carry to conflict settings: unemployed Iraqis were consistently less optimistic than other citizens; displayed diminished perceptions of efficacy; and were much less likely to support the use of violence against Coalition forces. |
| JEL: | J21 D74 F51 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:esocpu:1&r=net |
| By: | Ziaurrahman, Muhammad; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The question whether financial development leads to economic growth is the interest of many studies which have very crucial policy implications. However, there exist conflicting results as to which variable (financial development/economic growth) is causing whom. The purpose of this paper is to predict whether the financial sector development leads to economic growth. India has been taken as an investigation case because, to the best of our knowledge, India has never been the interest of this kind of study by applying time series techniques such as Autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) and VECM methods for the period as recent as from 1960 up until 2013. This study found that there is a long run (co-integration) relationship between economic growth and financial sector development as experienced by India. The study observed causal relationship from financial sector development to economic boom i.e. financial market is found exogenous (leader) while economic growth is endogenous (follower). From the policy point of view, the study suggests that if government wants to enhance economic growth, it can do so by reformations in financial sector. Hence, India should consider financial sector as the policy variable (because of its exogenous nature) to bring reformations that will boost economic growth. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, financial market, ARDL, India |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E44 |
| Date: | 2016–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72121&r=net |
| By: | Juzhong Zhuang (Asian Development Bank, also associate of Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK); Shi Li (Beijing Normal University, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines underlying factors that could explain the decline in income inequality in China since 2008 and inquires whether the decline indicates Chinaís income inequality has peaked following the Kuznets hypothesis. The paper first identifies four key drivers of rising income inequality in China since the mid-1980: rising skill premium, declining share of labor income, increasing spatial inequality, and widening inequality in the distribution of wealth. It then provides evidence that the reversal of these drivers, with the exception of wealth inequality, could partly explains the decline in income inequality since 2008. The paper argues that since part of the reversal of these drivers is policy-induced, it is important that the policy actions continue for income inequality to decline further. The paper further argues that a critical factor underlying the Kuznets hypothesis is that taxation and transfers play a bigger role in income redistribution as a country becomes more developed, while their role is still limited in China, the future path of Chinaís income inequality may not be one-directional, and may stay high before personal income tax plays a bigger role. |
| Keywords: | Income inequality, the Chinese economy, Kuznets hypothesis |
| JEL: | D31 D63 N35 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:196&r=net |
| By: | MA, Ye; JONG, Herman de |
| Abstract: | This paper reconstructs China's economic development between 1840 and 1912 with an estimation of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides for the first time a time series of GDP (per capita) for the late Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), based on sectoral output and value added, in current as well as in constant prices. The present estimation of per capita GDP in the late Qing period comes out higher than previous estimations, but it still suggests low average levels of Chinese living standards. The economy during the late Qing Empire was characterised by a large and growing agricultural sector and displayed only minor structural changes. Only in the beginning of the twentieth century did the economy start to show signs of growth. |
| Keywords: | China, GDP, 19th century, living standards |
| JEL: | E01 N15 O11 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-29&r=net |
| By: | Utku Teksoz; Katerina Kalcheva |
| Abstract: | To predict economic success and failure, academics and policymakers alike are interested in the differences in institutional structures across natural resource-based economies. This paper uses a political economy framework to examine the effect of institutional variables on per capita Gross-Domestic-Product in resource-rich economies. After controlling for institutions, natural resource rents cease to have a negative impact on long-term growth. Institutions in resource-based economies foster economic growth when voice and accountability are in place; broad-based rule of law is enforced with secure property rights, and control of corruption; and when government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and political stability are positively perceived. |
| Keywords: | institutions, growth, political power, rents, property rights, resource-based economies |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-063&r=net |
| By: | David Besanko; David Dranove; Craig Garthwaite |
| Abstract: | We present a model in which prospective patients are liquidity constrained, and thus health insurance allows patients access to treatments and services that they otherwise would have been unable to afford. Consistent with large expansions of insurance in the U.S. (e.g., the Affordable Care Act), we assume that policies expand the set of services that must be covered by insurance. We show that the profit-maximizing price for an innovative treatment is greater in the presence of health insurance than it would be for an uninsured population. We also show that consumer surplus is less than it would be if the innovation was not covered. These results show that even in the absence of moral hazard, there are channels through which insurance can negatively affect consumer welfare. Our model also provides an economic rationale for the claim that pharmaceutical firms set prices that exceed the value their products create. We empirically examine our model's predictions by studying the pricing of oncology drugs following the 2003 passage of Medicare Part D. Prior to 2003, drugs covered under Medicare Part B had higher prices than those that would eventually be covered under Part D. In general, the trends in pricing across these categories were similar. However, after 2003 there was a far greater increase in prices for products covered under Part D, and as result, products covered by both programs were sold at similar prices. In addition, these prices were quite high compared to the value created by the products---suggesting that the forced bundle of Part D might have allowed firms to capture more value than their products created. |
| JEL: | H0 H51 I0 I1 I11 L1 L13 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22353&r=net |
| By: | Margherita Scoppola |
| Abstract: | Some firms invest abroad in land, while other firms procure raw materials from food or energy importing countries by means of an outsourcing arrangement with farmers in land-abundant countries. Few studies have investigated the pattern of recent Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in agriculture and the ones that have are mostly focused on the locational drivers of FDI. This paper explores how the contractual features of transactions of agricultural products affect the "internalization" decision of firms, that is, the choice trade/FDI. The paper develops a partial equilibrium model incorporating incomplete contracts and asset specificity, which is used to address a number of questions: What is the impact of the quality of the institutions on the choice trade/FDI? How may the bargaining power of the downstream and upstream firms affect the outcome? How is the choice FDI/trade affected by the presence of a state-owned firm? The model provides some unconventional results, such as the finding that when the investor is private, better institutions may lead firms to choose outsourcing, while weak institutions may be a driver of FDI. |
| JEL: | Q15 F23 L23 Q17 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsc:fspubl:49&r=net |
| By: | Fontagné, Lionel; Orefice, Gianluca; Piermartini, Roberta |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the asymmetric effect of Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) policies on heterogeneous exporters, based on matching a detailed panel of French firm exports to a new database of Trade Facilita- tion Indicators (TFIs) released recently by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). We analyze the effect of these TFIs on three trade-related outcomes: (i) exported value (firm intensive margin), (ii) number of products exported (product extensive margin) and (iii) average export value per product exported (product intensive margin). We find strong evidence of a heterogeneous effect of trade facilitation across firm size. While better information availability, advance ruling and appeal procedures mainly benefit small firms, the simplification of documents and automation tend to favor large firms' trade. This is coherent with the idea that while some elements of the TFA simply reduce the fixed cost of exporting (favoring small firms in particular), other chapters in the TFA reduce the scope for corruption at borders, making large firms less reluctant to serve corrupt countries. |
| Keywords: | Trade Facilitation,Heterogeneous Firms,Extensive Margin,Intensive Margin |
| JEL: | F13 F14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201603&r=net |
| By: | Rulof P. Burger, Stephan Klasen and Asmus Zoch |
| Abstract: | There are long-standing concerns that household income mobility is over-estimated due to measurement errors in reported incomes, especially in developing countries where collecting reliable survey data is often difficult. We propose a new approach that exploits the existence of three waves of panel data to can be used to simultaneously estimate the extent of income mobility and the reliability of the income measure. This estimator is more efficient than 2SLS estimators used in other studies and produces over-identifying restrictions that can be used to test the validity of our identifying assumptions. We also introduce a nonparametric generalisation in which both the speed of income convergence and the reliability of the income measure varies with the initial income level. This approach is applied to a three-wave South African panel dataset. The results suggest that the conventional method over-estimates the extent of income mobility by a factor of more than 4 and that about 20% of variation in reported household income is due to measurement error. This result is robust to the choice of income mobility measure. Nonparametric estimates show that there is relatively high (upward) income mobility for poor households, but very little (downward) income mobility for rich households, and that income is more reliably captured for rich than for poor households. |
| Keywords: | Income Mobility, inequality, longitudinal data analysis, measurement error |
| JEL: | J62 D63 C23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:607&r=net |
| By: | Esteban Nicolini (Economics Department, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Fernando Ramos Palencia (Department of Economics, Quantitative Methods and Economic History, Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | Research on the history of inequality in pre-industrial economies has focused mainly on either wealth or income inequality. The most common problem with wealth inequality is the lack information about the bottom of the distribution while the main problem with income inequality is the lack of data to characterize the top of the distribution. Given that in general these approaches are based in different kinds of sources and methodologies, the results are not easy to compare and the links between the two distributions are difficult to establish. In this paper we use a unique data set for different regions of Spain circa 1750 and present results (the first for any pre-20th century economy) of inequality of both income and wealth for the same sample of households. Information of wealth comes from probate inventories while information of income comes from the Ensenada Cadastre. The main results of the paper are that poor households are not completely absent from our data set of inventories, that the position of a household in the distribution of income is closely associated to its position in the distribution of wealth and that an increase of a household’s wealth is associated to a less-than-proportional increase in the household’s income. |
| Keywords: | inequality, income, wealth, Spain, probate inventories, Ensenada Cadastre |
| JEL: | D31 N33 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wphaei:16.01&r=net |
| By: | De Janvry,Alain F.; Ramirez Ritchie,Elizabeth Andrea; Sadoulet,Elisabeth Marie L. |
| Abstract: | Weather risk and incomplete insurance markets are significant contributors to poverty for rural households in developing countries. Weather index insurance has emerged as a possible tool for overcoming these challenges. This paper provides evidence on the impact of weather index insurance from a pioneering, large-scale insurance program in Mexico. The focus of this analysis is on the ex-post effects of insurance payments. A regression discontinuity design provides find evidence that payments from weather index insurance allow farmers to cultivate a larger land area in the season following a weather shock. Households in municipalities receiving payment also appear to have larger per capita expenditures and income in the subsequent year, although there is suggestive evidence that some of this increase is offset by a decrease in remittances. While the cost of insurance appears to be high relative to the payouts, the benefits exceed the costs for a substantial range of outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Climate Change Economics,Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Labor Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2016–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7715&r=net |
| By: | Astebro, Thomas B; Acs , Zoltan J; Audretsch , David B; Robinson, David T |
| Abstract: | We debate the motivation for and effectiveness of public policies to encourage individuals to become entrepreneurs. Reviewing established evidence we find that most western world policies do not greatly reduce or solve any market failures but instead waste taxpayers’ money, encourage those already intent on becoming entrepreneurs, and mostly generate one-employee businesses with low growth intentions and a lack of interest in innovating. Most policy initiatives that would have the effect of promoting valuable entrepreneurship would not be recognizable as such, because they would primarily address other market failures: a central-payer healthcare would remove health-care related distortions affecting employment choices; greater STEM education would produce more engineers of which some start valuable new firms; and labor market reform to encourage hiring immigrants in jobs they have been educated for would reduce inefficient allocation of talent to entrepreneurship. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; public policy |
| JEL: | L26 |
| Date: | 2016–01–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1137&r=net |
| By: | Midori Matsushima (Faculty of Business Administration, Osaka University of Commerce); Hiroyuki Yamada (Faculty of Economics, Keio University); Yasuharu Shimamura (Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | Vietnam is one of the leading countries moving towards universal health coverage (UHC) among developing and emerging countries. This paper examines how utilisation and the supply side have responded to the expansion of health insurance coverage. In the analysis, we use provincial panel data of 2006 to 2012 for every two years, which is constructed from several data sources. The results show that the utilisation has only slightly responded to the expansion of health insurance coverage, and nearly no positive supply-side response has been observed during the expansion. Also, the results of detailed analysis of health workers imply that there has been an unbalanced allocation of health workers between provincial hospitals and commune health stations despite the importance of commune health stations in providing primary healthcare. Our further analysis also reveals that the out-of-pocket (OOP) burden has not decreased and the affordability of healthcare services has not changed in response to health insurance coverage. Based on our findings, we argue that supply-side factors might have constrained utilisation, and that health insurance has hardly eased liquidity constraints. |
| Keywords: | universal health coverage, Vietnam, utilisation, supply |
| JEL: | I13 I18 |
| Date: | 2016–05–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2016-013&r=net |
| By: | Ben Fine (Department of Economics, SOAS, University of London, UK); Juan Pablo Dur·n Ortiz (MIT Displacement Research and Action Network, US) |
| Abstract: | The current idea of ísocial capitalî as driver of development and social change is not so much an illusion as a delusion. A justification for this emerges once power, class, conflict and context are explicitly brought to bear upon the social capital paradigm. This paper studies social capital in Colombia beginning with its initial definition proposed by Pierre Bourdieu in the early 1980s, with emphasis upon a contextualised reproduction and exercise of elite power. In this light, the real as opposed to the delusionary social capital can explain a great deal of the social and economic evolution of the country. For Colombia has been captured by the ísocial capitalî of national elites, drug dealers and multinational firms, ably abetted by the US government. It has launched a campaign of systematic violence against its citizenry under the paper-thin ideology of development and the war against drugs and terrorism in order to accrue profits from evictions and land expropriation. |
| Keywords: | development, evictions, land expropriation, social capital, war against drugs and terrorism |
| JEL: | O54 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:195&r=net |
| By: | Bulent Unel |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a North-South model of offshoring and immigration with occupational choice and endogenous firm productivity. Individuals in North choose to become entrepreneurs or workers, whereas those in South can only be employed as workers in either country. The model is used to investigate the impact of offshoring and immigration policies on occupational choice, task allocation, productivity, income inequality, and welfare. The model yields several interesting findings, but most notably it predicts that lowering offshoring costs generates job polarization, and pro-offshoring and pro-immigration policies may not be welfare improving in North. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsu:lsuwpp:2016-05&r=net |
| By: | Mensah, Justice Tei |
| Abstract: | Power cuts have become a characteristic feature of many Sub-Saharan African economies. This paper attempts to estimate the firm level impact of power out- ages using panel data on firms from 15 Sub-Saharan African countries. Further, I evaluate the impact of electricity self-generation in ameliorating the effects of power outages on firm performance using a quasi-experimental approach. Results from the analysis reveal significant negative effects of electricity short- ages on firm productivity, size and labor employment. Finally, contrary to the notion that self-generation may be helpful for firms during outage periods, evidence from this paper suggest that reliance on self-generation is associated with productivity losses albeit short run revenue gains. |
| Keywords: | Power outages, Sub-Saharan Africa, Electricity, Productivity, Firms, Productivity Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, D04, D24, L11, L94, O12, O13, Q41, |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236587&r=net |
| By: | Becker , Sebastian D; Mahlendorf , Matthias D; Schäffer , Utz; Thaten , Mario |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how corporate reliance on budgets is affected by major changes in the economic environment. We combine survey and archival data from the economic crisis that began in 2008. The results indicate that, as a result of the economic crisis, budgeting became more important for planning and resource allocation but less important for performance evaluation. Additional evidence from interviews and data gathered in a focus group further illustrate these results and show the changes organizations have introduced to respond to the economic crisis. Taken together, and contrary to more general conclusions from the literature such as an overall increase or decrease in the importance of budgeting, we find that companies emphasize certain budgeting functions over others during economic crises. |
| Keywords: | Budgeting; budgeting functions; economic crisis; crisis management |
| JEL: | M40 M41 |
| Date: | 2015–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1122&r=net |
| By: | Küçüközkan, Yasemin |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of leadership and motivation theories, this article study has two main objectives. The first objective is to perform a theoretical research on the concept of leadership and leadership theories. Initially, the leadership concept was defined, the basic leadership theories were examined and the importance of leadership was discussed. In particular, an assessment was done for the behavioral approaches on leadership theory. As such, the leadership concept and leadership theories were described and in the light of the extant literature, the evaluations on behavioral approaches of leadership were made. The second objective of this article study is to perform a theoretical research on the concept of motivation and motivation theories. Initially, the motivation concept was defined, the basic motivation theories were examined and the importance of motivation was discussed. In particular, an assessment was done for the health organizations and hospitals and the motivation of health care employees was evaluated. As such, the motivation concept and motivation theories were described and in the light of the extant literature, the relations of motivation with other concepts were examined. In conclusion, the evaluations about the importance of motivation among health care employees working in health organizations were made. |
| Keywords: | Leadership, Leadership theories, Behavioral approaches, Motivation, Motivation theories, Motivation factors, Health Care employees |
| JEL: | M54 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:69624&r=net |
| By: | Kushlin, Valery Ivanovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ustenko, V.S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the modern foreign practice to enhance research and innovation activities and to assess their applicability in the Russian context. Shown objectivity rise in the leading countries of the world work on the preparation of the new cycle of scientific and technological developments, despite the high uncertainty of the economic environment, and therefore the revealed changes in the forms of scientific innovation and industrial policy. Special attention is paid to the study of new approaches to the formation of innovative development of human potential in the United States, Germany, Britain, China and other countries. It is shown that in connection with the re-industrialization of the economy and trends roll on innovative modernization of the real production of special importance in the field of education and retraining (by, inter alia, the dual education) assumes the formation of the trainees and the natural sciences, especially, applied engineering and management skills. |
| Keywords: | innovations, science, modern conditions |
| Date: | 2016–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2832&r=net |
| By: | Cirera,Xavier; Muzi,Silvia |
| Abstract: | Little is known about innovation in developing countries, partly because of the lack of comparable and reliable data. Collecting data on firm-level innovation is challenging because of the subjective definition of what determines an innovation, a problem that is exacerbated in developing countries where innovation is likely to be more incremental and less radical. This paper contributes to the literature by presenting the results of an experiment aiming to identify the survey instrument that better captures firm-level innovation in developing countries. The paper shows that a small set of questions included in a multi-topic, firm-level survey does not provide an accurate picture of firm-level innovation and tends to overestimate innovation rates. Issues related to framing explain some of the unreliability of innovation responses, while cognitive problems do not appear to play a significant role. |
| Date: | 2016–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7696&r=net |
| By: | Albert Park (Division of Social Science, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Paul Glewwe (Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota); Meng Zhao (Faculty of International Social Sciences, Gakushuin University) |
| Abstract: | About 10% of primary school students in developing countries have poor vision, but very few of them wear glasses. Almost no research examines the impact of poor vision on school performance, and simple OLS estimates could be biased because studying harder may adversely affects one’s vision. This paper presents results from a randomized trial in Western China that offered free eyeglasses to rural primary school students. Our preferred estimates, which exclude township pairs for which students in the control township were mistakenly provided eyeglasses, indicate that wearing eyeglasses for one academic year increased the average test scores of students with poor vision by 0.16 to 0.22 standard deviations, equivalent to 0.3 to 0.5 additional years of schooling. These estimates are averages across the two counties where the intervention was conducted. We also find that the benefits are greater for under-performing students. A simple cost-benefit analysis suggests very high economic returns to wearing eyeglasses, raising the question of why such investments are not made by most families. We find that girls are more likely to refuse free eyeglasses, and that parental lack of awareness of vision problems, mothers’ education, and economic factors (expenditures per capita and price) significantly affect whether children wear eyeglasses in the absence of the intervention. |
| Keywords: | poor vision, impaired eyesight, school performance, eyeglasses, eyesight, academic performance |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201637&r=net |
| By: | Nick Hanley (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Oleg Sheremet (Department of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Martina Bozzola (International Trade Centre, Geneva); Alexander Kasterine (International Trade Centre, Geneva); Douglas C. MacMillan (DICE, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent) |
| Abstract: | The international demand for endangered animal and plant species as traditional medicine, luxury foods and curios is strong and rising, especially in eastern Asia. The illegal poaching of wildlife to supply this market represents an immediate and growing threat to the survival of many endangered species. To counter the illegal international wildlife trade, the global community remains committed to supply-side trade restrictions and enforcement of poaching laws. However, despite these actions recovery in the populations of many species is being threatened by rising poaching rates over the last 10 years. In this paper, we use a choice experiment undertaken with over 800 residents of Vietnam, in order to investigate how the demand for rhino horn varies according to its source attributes. The survey sample includes 130 respondents who reported having either purchased or used rhino horn medicinal products in the past 5 years and a further 345 who expressed some interest in purchasing rhino horn medicinal products in the future. In particular, we estimate willingness to pay for horn that differs according to source (farmed, semi-wild, farmed) harvesting method (lethal and non-lethal), rarity of the rhino species and price. We also compare preferences elicited in the context of illegal trade in rhino horn, compared to legalised trade, and how consumer preferences vary according to socio-economic variables such as income. We find that preferences are significantly influenced by source and harvesting method and income level, with non-lethal harvesting and wild sourced horn generally preferred especially by the richest consumers, who are also the consumers most likely to have previously bought horn products. Under a legal trade demand would fall for all horn types and consumer groups. |
| Keywords: | : choice experiment, willingness to pay, demand for endangered species, international trade, rhino horn products |
| JEL: | Q27 Q51 Q57 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sss:wpaper:2016-10&r=net |
| By: | Davide De Gaetano |
| Abstract: | In this paper the problem of instability due to changes in the parameters of some Realized Volatility (RV) models has been addressed. The analysis is based on 5-minute RV of four U.S. stock market indices. Three different representations of the log-RV have been considered and, for each of them, the parameter instability has been detected by using the recursive estimates test. In order to analyse how instabilities in the parameters affect the forecasting performance, an out-of-sample forecasting exercise has been performed. In particular, several forecast combinations, designed to accommodate potential structural breaks, have been considered. All of them are based on different estimation windows, with alternative weighting schemes, and do not take into account explicitly estimated break dates. The model con_dence set has been used to compare the forecasting performances of the proposed approaches. Our analysis gives empirical evidences of the effectiveness of the combinations which make adjustments for accounting the possible most recent break point. |
| Keywords: | Forecast combinations, Structural breaks, Realized volatility |
| JEL: | C53 C58 G17 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0208&r=net |
| By: | Bai, Yu; Zhang, Linxiu; Liu, Chengfang; Shi, Yaojiang; Mo, Di; Rozelle, Scott |
| Abstract: | China’s rapid development and urbanization has induced large numbers of rural residents to migrate from their homes in the countryside to urban areas in search of higher wages. As a consequence, it is estimated that more than 60 million children in rural China are left behind and live with relatives, typically their paternal grandparents. These children are called Left Behind Children (or LBCs). There are concerns about the potential negative effects of parental migration on the academic performance of the LBCs that could be due to the absence of parental care. However, it might also be that when a child’s parents work in the city away from home, their remittances can increase the household’s income and provide more resources and that this can lead to better academic performance. Hence, the net impact of out-migration on the academic performance of LBCs is unclear. This paper examines changes in academic performance before and after the parents of students out-migrate. We draw on a panel dataset collected by the authors of more than 13,000 students at 130 rural primary schools in ethnic minority areas of rural China. Using difference-in-difference and propensity score matching approaches, our results indicate that generally parental migration has significant, positive impacts on the academic performance of LBCs (which we measure using standardized English test scores). Heterogeneous analysis using our data demonstrates that the positive impact on LBCs is greater for poorer performing students. |
| Keywords: | migration, academic performance, left-behind children, difference-in-difference, rural China, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics, O12, O15, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea16:236806&r=net |
| By: | Eva M. Berger; Luke Haywood |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of locus of control (LOC) on the length of mothers’ employment break after childbirth. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), duration data reveals that women with an internal LOC return to employment more quickly than women with an external LOC. We find evidence that this effect is mainly related to differential appreciation of the career costs of longer maternity leave. Given the high level of job protection enjoyed by mothers in Germany, economic consequences of differences in this non-cognitive skill can be expected to be larger in other settings. |
| Keywords: | Locus of Control, Non-cognitive skills, personality, maternal employment, female labor supply, survival analysis |
| JEL: | J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1586&r=net |
| By: | Viollaz, Mariana |
| Abstract: | When compliance with labor market regulations is low, the enforcement of the labor law becomes a concept that is closer to the regulatory environment that firms and workers face. Firms are expected to react to variations in the enforcement level, and the response may differ for male and female workers. This paper explores microdata from Argentine household surveys to analyze: (i) how changes in the enforcement of labor regulations affect the level of compliance with the labor law among men and women, and (ii) how changes in the enforcement of the labor law generate adjustments of other labor outcomes, for men and women separately. Using information of the highly decentralized labor inspection system in Argentina, I construct an enforcement measure with variation at the province, sector, and time level (share of inspected firms). To deal with the potential endogeneity of this measure, I instrument using a measure of the arrival cost of labor inspectors to the firms. The main findings reveal different patterns of adjustment for men and women. When the degree of enforcement increases: the compliance with employment and social security regulations increases for men and decreases for women; the share of wage employees increases and the share of self-employed declines for men, with no changes for women; no changes are found in hourly wages and in the provision of non-mandated benefits. These results bring additional evidence about how the regulatory environment can impact on the decisions of firms and workers about participating in the informal sector. More importantly, they stress that both the written labor regulation and the degree of enforcement are essential parts in the provision of social and labor protection. |
| Keywords: | enforcement of labor market regulations, compliance with labor market regulations, gender, Argentina |
| JEL: | J16 J3 J30 J81 J83 J88 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:72000&r=net |
| By: | dos Santos, M. C.; Aguiar, L. K.; Bansback, R. J.; Revell, B. J.; de Zen, S. |
| Abstract: | Brazil is an important player in the global beef market exporting throughout the world. The Brazilian livestock sector contributes to about 3% of the national GDP, and it has the potential for further increasing its beef exports; only about 1/5 of its beef production currently goes for export – at the same time domestic beef consumption has been rising. It has various competitive advantages compared to other major exporters but it has faced questions in recent years on the adverse impact of the beef industry has on the environment – particularly in relation to GHG emissions. Historically, the main challenge has come from criticism that the increased land needed for higher beef production levels has caused greater deforestation. However, this is no longer the case as Brazil is increasing its production by improvements in productivity rather than devoting more land to cattle farming. This paper shows the contribution that improvements in stocking rates, calving intervals and increasing of the age of slaughter are making to improvements in the productivity of beef production without causing such damaging GHG emission impacts. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236325&r=net |
| By: | Freeman, Richard Barry; Han, Eunice; Madland, David; Duke, Brendan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines unionism’s relationship to the size of the middle class and its relationship to intergenerational mobility. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) 1985 and 2011 files are used to examine the change in the share of workers in a middle-income group (defined by persons having incomes within 50 percent of the median) and use a shift-share decomposition to explore how the decline of unionism contributes to the shrinking middle class. The files are also used to investigate the correlation between parents’ union status and the incomes of their children. Additionally, federal income tax data is used to examine the geographical correlation between union density and intergenerational mobility. Findings include that union workers are disproportionately in the middle-income group or above, and some reach middle-income status due to the union wage premium; the offspring of union parents have higher incomes than the offspring of otherwise comparable non-union parents, especially when the parents are low-skilled; and offspring from communities with higher union density have higher average incomes relative to their parents compared to offspring from communities with lower union density. These findings show a strong, though not necessarily causal, link between unions, the middle class, and intergenerational mobility. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hrv:faseco:27304672&r=net |
| By: | Mark Schneider (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University); Jonathan Leland (National Science Foundation); Nathaniel T. Wilcox (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University) |
| Abstract: | In his exposition of subjective expected utility theory, Savage (1954) proposed that the Allais paradox could be reduced if it were recast into a format which made the appeal of the independence axiom of expected utility theory more transparent. Recent studies consistently find support for this prediction. We consider a salience-based choice model which explains this frame-dependence of the Allais paradox and derive the novel prediction that the same type of presentation format which was found to reduce Allais-style violations of expected utility theory will also reduce Ellsberg-style violations of subjective expected utility theory since that format makes the appeal of Savage’s “sure thing principle” more transparent. We design an experiment to test this prediction and find strong support for such frame dependence of ambiguity aversion in Ellsberg-style choices. In particular, we observe markedly less ambiguity-averse behavior in Savage’s matrix format than in a more standard ‘prospect’ format. This finding poses a new challenge for the leading models of ambiguity aversion. |
| Keywords: | Ellsberg paradox; Ambiguity Aversion; Framing Effects; Expected Utility |
| JEL: | C91 D81 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chu:wpaper:16-11&r=net |
| By: | Mamata Swain; Sasmita Patnaik |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is a highly risky venture mainly due to uncertainty in crop production emanating from natural causes including unpredictable weather events and pest attacks, which leads governments to implement various crop insurance schemes in order to provide economic support to farmers in the event of crop failure. There are two major crop insurance schemes operating in Odisha state of India: National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) and the pilot Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS). NAIS provides compensation for yield losses due to natural causes and covers all food crops and commercial crops. WBCIS provides coverage for paddy crop yield losses due to rainfall only. Both schemes are compulsory for loanee farmers and are also available for non-loanee farmers on voluntary basis. In this study, we analyze and compare various indicators including their coverage, financial performance and operational efficiency in acting as a safety net to the farmers when they experience crop losses. The study uses both secondary data and primary data. While the secondary data on various performance indicators are for the state of Odisha as a whole, the primary data for the study come from the Bolangir and Kalahandi districts located in drought-prone western Odisha. Applying a multi-stage sampling method, the sample includes 100 households using WBCIS from the Bolangir district and 100 households using NAIS from the contiguous Kalahandi district. Primary data were collected using a structured household questionnaire via the direct interview method between October 2011 and May 2012. The results show that the area under crop insurance in these two schemes has increased from 10 to 16 percent of the gross cropped area in Odisha state during 2000-2012 but 84 percent is still not covered. This increase in coverage is mainly due to increase in the number of loanee farmers. The area under crop insurance by non loanee farmers has substantially declined over time in the case of both NAIS and WBCIS. NAIS is a large insurance scheme which covers 96 percent whereas WBCIS being a pilot scheme covers only 4 percent of the area insured by these two schemes in 2012. The study reveals that WBCIS performs better than NAIS as indicated by the higher adoption rate, the higher percentage of farmers benefited, the lower premium, faster claim payment, and the frequent indemnity payment. However, WBCIS covers only paddy crop losses due to deficit or surplus rainfall. In a frequently disaster-affected state like Odisha, where reasons for crop failure are many, there is also a need for multi-peril crop insurance schemes like NAIS. Therefore, both the schemes should continue and complement each other. The public sector may address catastrophic risk and provide multi-peril insurance where the subsidy requirement is high while the private sector could be brought into to provide insurance products for less severe events and for individual, independent, idiosyncratic and localized risk. |
| Keywords: | Risk in Agriculture, Adaptation, Crop Insurance Schemes, Weather, Performance, Odisha |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:snd:wpaper:104&r=net |
| By: | Dluhosch, Barbara (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg); Horgos, Daniel (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | There has been an intense debate as to the effects of offshoring and global value chains on labor, with the debate centering around possible negative employment and income effects for the low(er) skilled in advanced economies. Although sociological and psychological research has shown that income falls far too short when it comes to subjective well-being (SWB), the globalization's impact on SWB has been surprisingly under-researched. This applies in particular to job satisfaction, including of those negatively affected by seeing their real income depressed. Against this backdrop, we develop a trade model that is capable of capturing job satisfaction in conjunction with the income and distributional effects of offshoring. Contrary to a great many beliefs, our theoretical considerations suggest that those remaining employed may be more satisfied with their jobs, even if suffering from increased competition and from more tasks being offshored. Running a cross-section logistic regression model that combines information on offshoring and job satisfaction, lends support to our theoretical explanations. Accordingly, job satisfaction is on average rated higher in countries with comparatively high offshoring activities. More disaggregated regressions get to the heart of the matter, which is a change in the characteristics of the remaining jobs. Our results stand up to extensive robustness checks with respect to different specifications, measures of globalization, and even when controlling for many of the usually suspected variables with reference to SWB. |
| Keywords: | Subjective Well-Being; Job Satisfaction; Offshoring; Global Value Chains |
| JEL: | F66 I31 |
| Date: | 2016–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2016_170&r=net |
| By: | Kramer, Anica; Tamm, Marcus |
| Abstract: | Individuals with more years of education generally acquire more training later on in life. Such a relationship may be due to skills learned in early periods increasing returns to educational investments in later periods. This paper addresses the question whether the complementarity between education and training is causal. The identification is based on exogenous variation in years of education due to a reform of the schooling system and the buildup of universities. Results confirm that education has a significant impact on training participation during working life. |
| Abstract: | Personen mit hoher Schul- oder beruflicher Bildung nehmen im späteren Leben deutlich häufiger an Weiterbildung teil. Ein derartiger Zusammenhang könnte daraus resultieren, dass einige Fähigkeiten, die in schulischer und beruflicher Ausbildung geprägt werden, zu höheren Ertragsraten von späteren Weiterbildungsinvestitionen und daher zu mehr Investitionen führen. In der vorliegenden Untersuchung wird geprüft, ob der Zusammenhang zwischen Bildung und Weiterbildungsteilnahme kausaler Natur ist. Hierzu wird auf exogene Variation im Bildungserwerb zurückgegriffen, die sich aus einer Schulreform und der Gründung von Universitäten ergibt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Bildungserwerb in Schule oder Berufsausbildung einen signifikant positiven kausalen Effekt auf die Weiterbildungsteilnahme im späteren Erwerbsleben hat. |
| Keywords: | training,lifelong learning,returns to schooling |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:618&r=net |
| By: | M. Grazzi; D. Moschella |
| Abstract: | This work investigates how the export status of the firm influences the patterns of growth at different age classes. We address this research question resorting to a novel set of data that links together the universe of Italian firms and detailed data on export transactions. We find that the positive relationship between export status and growth declines with firm age. Further, we also find that, even when accounting for the role of age, the negative size-growth relationship does not disappear, contrary to some recent evidence. These results, which are robust to a series of controls, suggest for a positive signaling role of the export status which is stronger for young exporters or born globals. Exploiting the product-country level dimension of the customs data we also provide, for the first time, evidence on differences in exchange rates pass through between young and experienced exporters. In particular, we find that early exporters appear to be well equipped to face exchange rates variations as their exports decrease less following a currency appreciation. |
| JEL: | D22 F14 L11 L21 L25 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1068&r=net |
| By: | Hutchings, Timothy R.; Nordblom, Thomas L.; Hayes, Richard C.; Li, Guangdi; Finlayson, John D. |
| Abstract: | Australian farmers operate in a financial environment, which is many times more variable than their competitors in the developed world, yet make decisions using static systems which ignore risk. This paper examines the use of dynamic modelling, using the Intensive Farming (IF) model, which can quantify and compare the physical and financial risks associated with various management scenarios on dryland farms in south-eastern Australia. In this paper the Intensive Farming (IF) model is used to simulate the whole-farm, 10-year cashflow for a typical 1,000 ha farm in the region, with a farming system based on dryland crops and breeding Merino sheep. It shows that conventional budgets, based on annual average yields and prices at 80% equity, produce outcomes with similar median values to the more complex dynamic budgets, and predict a positive margin for average years. In contrast dynamic analysis shows that the 10-year cash margins are 38% more likely to be negative than positive. Such a farming system was therefore unlikely to be viable in the long term. Dynamic budgeting also shows that the cropping enterprise is three times more variable (CV 50%) than the sheep enterprise (CV 18%). The effect of including risk reduces the crop gross margin by 14% and the sheep gross margin by 7% compared to static budgeting, which is based on annual average rainfall and prices. Further analysis showed that whole-farm cash margins are very sensitive to debt, with the cost of a 20% increase in debt reducing the 10-year cash margin by 19%. Within-year tactical adjustments had little significant effect on the long-term margin, because such adjustments are usually made in years of low income, where the marginal dollar effect was small. This paper concludes that conventional budgets could encourage sub-optimal, and even loss-making farming practices, and should be replaced with whole-farm, long-term, dynamic budgeting systems, which explicitly account for the natural variability of key inputs. |
| Keywords: | Farm risk and variability, whole-farm financial risk, dynamic budgeting, cash flow, modelling resilience and viability, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare16:235333&r=net |
| By: | Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Summary The Western Balkans are a region with a substantial economic catch-up potential. Compared to other European economies these countries are either poor or very poor. Structural underdevelopment and low competitiveness impede the catch-up process. Mass unemployment and a huge trade deficit indicate heavy internal and external imbalances. Short-run policy measures should focus on fiscal devaluation and NPL resolution to foster cost competitiveness and private investment. A ‘Big Push’ in infrastructure investment is imperative for long-term prosperity. An investment volume of EUR 7.7 billion as envisaged in the ‘Berlin Process’ has the potential for an additional GNP growth impulse of about 1% p.a. and a positive employment effect of up to 200,000 people in the region. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic policy, investment, infrastructure, fiscal devaluation, competitiveness, Western Balkans, Berlin Process |
| JEL: | E27 E60 F21 H54 O24 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:16&r=net |
| By: | Kamalini Ramdas (Management Science and Operations, London Business School); Khaled Saleh (Division of Orthopedic Surgery, Southern Illinois University School of Medicine); Steven Stern (Department of Economics, University of Virginia); Haiyan Liu (Department of Economics, University of South Florida) |
| Keywords: | Keywords:Product Variety, Learning and Forgetting, Experience Curves, Productivity, Health Care |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:0316&r=net |
| By: | Hera Susanti; Arie Damayanti (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the behavior of internal migration in Indonesia and estimate factors influenced the migrants’s decision to return. We adopt the international migration model to estimate the duration periods of the Indonesian internal migration. The characteristic variables are developed from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) data within period of 1993-2007, while the control variables are using various regional data fron the National Statistical Bureau of Statistics. The main conclusion indicates that the return decision was mainly influenced by the opportunity to increase migrant welfares. Hence, migrants’s characteristic and education level proved to affect the duration. The migrants’s engagement to their family and community was remain strong, and even stronger if the status of the home region was rural area. The duration also tends to be longer after the implementation of regional autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Migration Duration, Internal Migration, Return Migration, Survival Analysis, IFLS |
| JEL: | C41 J61 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201505&r=net |
| By: | Aganbegyan, Abel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kleeva, Lyudmila (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Krotova, Nadezhda (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Pechurina, A.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new outlook Vital to 2030 taking into account the new emerging trends in fertility and mortality. Carried out: analysis of population depopulation in the period 1992-2005. with the conclusions of the negative nature of the decline in fertility and increase mortality, in order to avoid this situation in future; evaluation of "Health" national program in the 2006-2013 biennium, providing overcoming of depopulation, with the conclusions and suggestions for further demographic policy.; study the negative trend began fertility decline due to the decline in the number of women of childbearing age. Identification based on the experience of France and other developed countries to mitigate the negative trend began fertility decline due to the decline in the number of women of childbearing age by increasing the total fertility rate has allowed to determine the possibility of a more intense reduction in the working age population mortality, especially infant mortality and mortality rates, where our rates in 2.5-3,5 times higher than in Western Europe. There was also held a recreational complex analysis of Russia. |
| Keywords: | depopulation, Russia, fertility, mortality |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2048&r=net |
| By: | Nadir Altinok; Abdurrahman Aydemir |
| Abstract: | Our paper reassesses the question of the impact of cognitive skills on economic growth using new indicators for cognitive skills. These data extend measures of cognitive skills substantively. In particular, our data extends the coverage of less developed countries, among them adding 27 countries of Sub- Saharan Africa, a continent that was largely missing from the analysis of the effects of learning outcomes on economic growth. Using this extended dataset and employing several identification strategies, cognitive skills are found to have a positive impact on economic growth. We address the heterogeneity in the causal effect of cognitive skills on growth and show that the effect of skills on growth differs across regions and by the economic level of countries. Our results indicate that high-income countries should focus on increasing the number of high skilled pupils, while countries from Sub-Saharan Africa would benefit more by investing in the development of basic skills. |
| Keywords: | Education Quality, Cognitive Skills, PISA, Human Capital, Growth, Development. |
| JEL: | H5 I2 O4 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2016-34&r=net |
| By: | Tang, Can (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Liqiu (Renmin University of China); Zhao, Zhong (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | We present the first systematic study on child labor in China. Child labor is not a negligible social phenomenon in China; about 7.74% of children aged from 10 to 15 were working in 2010, and they worked for 6.75 hours per day on average, and spent 6.42 hours less per day on study than other children. About 90% of child laborers were still in school and combined economic activity with schooling. Our results show that child labor participation is positively associated with school dropout rate. A child living in a rural area is more likely to work. Compared with place of residence, the gender of a child are less important. The educational level of the household head and its interaction with the gender of the household head seem to be unimportant. However, household assets per capita and household involvement in non-agricultural activities are negatively related to the incidence of child labor. A child from a household with more adults is less likely to work. The prevalence of child labor in China exhibits significant regional variations. The child labor incidence is correlated with the development level of each region: the Western region has the highest percentage of child labor, followed by the Eastern and Central region. |
| Keywords: | child labor, school dropout, working hours, China |
| JEL: | J43 J81 O15 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9976&r=net |
| By: | Luca Flóra Drucker (ELTE Department of Economics and Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences); Daniel Horn (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and ELTE Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The Polish educational reform in 1999 is often considered successful as the results of the Polish students, and especially that of the low-performers, on the OECD PISA tests have improved significantly since the introduction of the new system. The reform extended the previous 8-year undivided comprehensive education to 9 years, core curricula were introduced and the examination, admission and assessment systems were changed. It has been argued before that this longer comprehensive education improved the test performance of worse performing students; hence increasing average performance and decreasing inter-school variation of test scores. However, the lack of reliable impact assessment on long-run labour market effects of this reform is awaiting. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by looking at the causal effects of the reform. By comparing the labour market outcomes of the pre- and post-reform cohorts, we find a non-negligible and positive effect. We look at employment and wages as outcomes. Using data from the EU-Statistics on Income and Living conditions, and pooling the waves between 2005 and 2013 and taking the 20-27 year-olds, we generate a quasi-panel of observations to estimate the treatment effect by difference-in-difference estimation. We find evidence that the reform was successful on the long-run: the post-reform group is more likely to be employed and they also earn higher wages. On average, the treatment group is around 2-3% more likely to be employed, which effect is driven by the lowest educated. The post-reform cohort also earns more: we find an over 3% difference in real wages, which is also more pronounced for the lowest educated. |
| Keywords: | education reform, Poland, detracking, labor market, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I26 J24 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:bworkp:1602&r=net |
| By: | Karim El Aynaoui; Uri Dadush; Karim El Mokri; Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | This paper will take stock of the economic performance of Europe and the Arab world, examining how they can do better by working together. The paper pays special attention to the trade, investment, migration and energy linkages between the two regions, as well as those among the Arab countries, as well as how they can be improved to achieve better development. Whereas we present a southern perspective, with Arab countries as main focus, the purpose is to understand the constraints facing both regions, and come up with measures that benefit all parties. The paper begins with a brief overview of Europe and MENA’s economic performance compared to their peers. It goes on to examine the linkages between the two regions as viewed by the MENA region. These include trade, in which energy plays an especially important role, migration, both voluntary and involuntary, and investment. The paper then discusses the political preconditions for advancing on reforms, especially on those that exploit the latent synergies between the two regions, and their feasibility. It concludes with some critical policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:pp-16/07&r=net |
| By: | Feng Zhu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the evolution of the equilibrium real interest rate (ie natural or neutral interest rate) in Asia-Pacific. I take an empirical approach to estimate the rate, simple estimates suggest that except for China, and Thailand since 2005, the natural interest rate may have declined substantially in Asian-Pacific economies since the early or mid-1990s, by over 4 percentage points on average. In many economies the rate has turned negative. The tendency has become more accentuated in the 2000s, especially since the onset of the global financial crisis. Yet simple natural interest rate estimates are unreliable, which vary significantly over time and across the economies. I use frequency-domain techniques to examine the relationship between the long-run component of real interest rate and those of population characteristics, globalisation, and a range of macroeconomic and financial variables (eg credit and asset prices). I estimate spectral and cospectral densities, coherency and the frequency-specific coefficients of correlation and regression proposed by Zhu (2005). the association seems to be broad and strong between the natural interest rate and the low-frequency trend components of demographic and global factors in Asia- Pacific, but weak between the natural interest rate and trends in asset prices, creditto GDP ratio and trend growth in many economies in the region. In most cases, the natural interest rate seems to be correlated with broad measures of long-term financial sector development, and trends in saving rate and investment ratio. |
| Keywords: | asset price, credit, demography, equilibrium real interest rates, frequency-domain methods, globalisation, natural interest rates, population ageing, trend growth |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:567&r=net |
| By: | Quan-Hoang Vuong; Ha Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Less developed countries, Vietnam included, face serious challenges of inefficient diagnosis, inaccessibility to healthcare facilities, and high medical expenses. Information on medical costs, technical and professional capabilities of healthcare providers and service deliveries becomes influential when it comes to patients' decision on choices of healthcare providers.Methods: The study employs a data set containing 1,459 observations collected from a survey on Vietnamese patients in late 2015. The standard categorical data analysis is performed to provide statistical results, yielding insights from the empirical data.Results: Patients' socio-economic status (SES) is found to be associated with the degree of significance of key factors (i.e. medical costs, professional capabilities and service deliveries), but medical expenses are the single most important factor that influence a decision by the poor, 2.28 times as critical as the non-poor. In contrary, the non-poor tend to value technical capabilities and services more, with odds ratios being 1.54 and 1.32, respectively.Discussion: There exists a risk for the poor in decision making based on medical expenses solely. The solution may rest with: a) improved health insurance mechanism; and, b) obtaining additional revenues from value-added services, which can help defray the poor's financial burdens. |
| Keywords: | Medical expenses; Healthcare information; Healthcare policy; Patients' socio-economic status; Sociology of patients |
| JEL: | I12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/231766&r=net |
| By: | James B. Davies; Rodrigo Lluberas; Anthony F. Shorrocks |
| Abstract: | Davies et al. (2008, 2011) provided the first estimates of the global distribution of wealth, using 2000 as the benchmark year. These estimates have been revised and updated since 2010, and the purpose of this paper is to explain the ways in which the estimation methodology has evolved and improved in recent years. Further, the paper summarizes lessons learned about trends in the level and distribution of global wealth for the period 2000-14. Finally, the paper discusses the results in the context of the discourse provoked by Piketty (2014). |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality, global wealth, income distribution, econometrics |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-003&r=net |
| By: | Michael Radhuber |
| Abstract: | A dynamic new field for health related technologies has emerged over the past decade. Many innovations aim at assisting elderly persons in monitoring and managing their personal health status. Other technologies support these persons in their activities of daily life, and make them feel safe and shepherded while still being able to live on their own. In times of ageing populations and stressed health care systems such technologies provide an interesting alternative to rather classic approaches in health and care services. New technologies become always more accessible to ordinary citizens. In many cases ownership of smartphones or tablets is sufficient for being able to participate in these benefits. But while smartphones and tablets are becoming ever cheaper and technically more sophisticated, attitudes of human beings towards new technologies only slowly change. One major problem is that many older individuals are eager to use new technologies and – especially for persons with disabilities – technologic innovations are becoming ever more relevant in their daily life; however due to age related changes in health and cognitive skills, these people are confronted with an invisible “technological barrier” (see Friesdorf et al., 2000; Czaja and Lee, 2007). This article aims to shed a first light on the mindset of persons 50+ in Austria towards new health and care technologies by looking at the relationship between gender, age, educational background, geographic living area and attitudes towards new technologies. |
| Keywords: | Personal computer, Tablet, Smartphone, Ageing, Health, Medical device, Elderly care, Self help, information technology, population ageing, |
| JEL: | J10 I18 H55 O30 |
| Date: | 2016–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2016_01&r=net |
| By: | Gertler, Mark; Huckfeldt, Christopher; Trigari, Antonella |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic models often incorporate some form of wage stickiness to help account for employment fluctuations. However, a recent literature calls into question this approach, citing evidence of new hire wage cyclicality from panel data studies as evidence for contractual wage flexibility for new hires, which is the relevant margin for employment volatility. We analyze data from the SIPP and find that the wages for new hires coming from unemployment are no more cyclical than those of existing workers, suggesting wages are sticky at the relevant margin. The new hire wage cyclicality found in earlier studies instead appears to reflect cyclical average wage gains of workers making job-to-job transitions, which we interpret as evidence of procyclical match quality for new hires from employment. We then develop a quantitative general equilibrium model with sticky wages via staggered contracting, on-the-job search, and variable match quality, and show that it can account for both the panel data evidence and aggregate labor market regularities. An additional implication of the model is that a sullying effect of recessions emerges, along the lines originally suggested by Barlevy (2002). |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11318&r=net |
| By: | Wu, Linhai; Hu, Qipeng; Zhu, Dian; Wang, Jianhua |
| Abstract: | Grain security should be a priority for the Chinese government when managing state affairs. The total rice production needs to remain stable at more than 200 million tons. However, there have been serious rice harvest losses, especially the harvest stage. In this study, the meaning of rice harvest losses was defined based on previous research findings on the definition of grain harvest losses and the realities in China. The current rice harvest losses in different areas in China were analyzed based on sampling survey data from 957 farmers in 10 provinces in China. On this basis, the main factors influencing rice harvest losses and their marginal effects were analyzed using the ordered multinomial logistic model. The survey found that 56.22% of respondents believed that rice harvest losses were 4% or lower in China, though there were differences among the province. The proportion of family rice-farming income, size of production area, level of mechanization, timely harvest, and operational meticulousness had negative effects on rice harvest losses. On the other hand, farmers' experience of employment as migrant workers had a positive effect on rice harvest losses. In addition, bad weather and short handedness during harvest significantly increased rice harvest losses. |
| Keywords: | rice, harvest losses, ordered multinomial logistic model, marginal effect, Agricultural and Food Policy, Q18, |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc16:236349&r=net |
| By: | Du Caju, Philip; Rycx, François; Tojerow, Ilan |
| Abstract: | We study how unemployment affects the over-indebtedness of households using the new European Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). First, we assess the role of different labor market statuses (i.e. employed, unemployed, disabled, retired, etc.) and other household characteristics (i.e. demographics, housing status, household wealth and income, etc.) to determine the likelihood of over-indebtedness. We explore these relationships both at the Euro area level and through country-specific regressions. This approach captures country-specific institutional effects concerning all the different factors which can explain household indebtedness in its most severe form. We also examine the role that each country’s legal and economic institutions play in explaining these differences. The results of the regressions across all countries show that the odds of being over-indebted are much higher in households where the reference person is unemployed. These odds ratios remain fairly stable across different over-indebtedness indicators and specifications. Interestingly, we find similar results for secured debt only. Turning to country specific results, the role of unemployment varies widely across countries. In Spain, France or Portugal, for example, the odds ratio for the unemployed group is just below 2, whereas in Austria, Belgium, or Italy the odds ratio is higher than 4. Secondly, we situate the analysis in a macro-micro frame to identify households and countries that are especially vulnerable to adverse macroeconomic shocks in the labor market. For the Euro area, we find that the percentage of households plagued by over-indebtedness increased by more than 10%, suggesting that another unemployment shock could have a major impact on the financial solvency of Euro area households. Finally, the impact of this shock on single-headed households is much higher than on couple-headed ones. JEL Classification: D14, D91, J12 |
| Keywords: | financial fragility, HFCS, household finance, labor market status, over-indebtedness, unemployment |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161908&r=net |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana; V.T., Shailashree; Kumar, Suresh |
| Abstract: | Most of the higher education institutions affiliated to public Universities introduced value additions to reinforce the relevance and strength of the course even if they had constraints of autonomy. Of late, the cry for quality has brought forward the ++ model in various under graduate and post graduate courses, which is competency building through ‘stage based quality assurance strategy’ that promotes bridging curriculum gaps, imparting skills and creating a mindset favourable to managing business or work as entrepreneurs. The institution can develop a model of student development and enhance graduate attributes by means of focused development plan. In semester based courses, the institution can identify various attributes essential for earning the degree and focus on a particular attribute in each semester. Based on our experience at SIMS (Srinivas Institute of management Studies), we have developed a stage model for all the courses to focus on a particular graduate attribute during each semester by designing the programmes in such a way that at the end of the course, students posses the expected graduate attributes. This has been named as higher education stage model. In this paper, we have analyzed the various features of Stage Model intervention technique through the analyzing framework called ABCD technique. The results supported the logic of using ABCD analyzing technique for any system/concept performance evaluation. |
| Keywords: | ABCD analysis framework, Stage model of higher education, Factors affecting stage model. |
| JEL: | I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2015–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71972&r=net |
| By: | Rao, Srinivas; Kumar, Suresh; Aithal, Sreeramana |
| Abstract: | Every organization should have a vision which spells out what it expects to realise in the long run, and continuously strive towards converting it into reality. Vision is born out of the minds and hearts of its propounders - ever constant and persistent, yet adaptive and responsive to rapidly changing conditions. The question of what SIMS as an educational institution would be like in 2025 is attempted to be outlined in this paper. Vision realization in some areas is possible to estimate quantitatively with a fair degree of confidence. In some others the broad direction is perceivable but unable to reasonably put in numbers the likely accomplishments. The institution itself is instrumental in determining its quality and furthering it strategically towards its future. Admissions should reflect heterogeneity of student population in terms of gender, regional, religious, cultural & linguistic differences. Courses should cover all realms of human life from technology to business and social service. Faculty should have a functional area of specialization and bend of mind for research and continuous improvement. This apart, the infrastructure should be sound. Teaching learning methods should incorporate a variety of pedagogy. Research and collaboration should be strong. Consultancy and training should be manifold. Industry exposure and placement should be extensive. Social service and civic responsibility should form the pillar of student orientation. Value addition through certificate courses, modular courses and soft skill should be incorporated. Beyond all this, there should be sufficient scope for horizontal and vertical integration. The perspective plan aligned with the vision and mission should spell out clearly, various aspects considered for students, faculty, courses, employers, infrastructure developments should be in the plan. Appropriate strategy development is required for planning and deployment of the various elements mentioned above. |
| Keywords: | Vision, Quality in Higher Education |
| JEL: | Y8 Y80 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71374&r=net |
| By: | Michel Magnan; Haiping Wang; Yaqi Shi(Sans nom) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the association between the use of fair value accounting and the cost of debt, as well as the impact of auditor industry expertise on this association. The sample comprises U.S. financial institutions’ data between 2007 and 2014. Results suggest that more extensive use of fair value accounting measurement in the financial statements is generally associated with a higher cost of debt, which supports the argument that fair value accounting is perceived to exhibit lower reliability. Findings further show that greater reliance on Level 2 and Level 3 fair value inputs is related with a higher cost of debt, indicating that the reliability issue is primarily driven by Level 2 and Level 3 estimates. In addition, we do not find that auditor industry expertise improves the decision usefulness of fair value accounting information. These results hold even after controlling for variables associated with a financial institution`s business model. Cette étude examine la relation entre l’intensité de l’usage de la comptabilité à la juste valeur et le coût de financement par voie de dette. Nous évaluons également si l’engagement d’auditeurs dits experts influence cette relation. Notre échantillon comprend des émissions de titres de dette effectuées par des institutions financières américaines entre 2007 et 2014. Nos résultats indiquent que l’utilisation plus intensive de la comptabilité à la juste valeur comme base de mesure pour les états financiers est associée à des coûts de financement plus élevés. La fiabilité moins grande de la comptabilité à la juste valeur peut expliquer ce résultat. À cet égard, l’utilisation d’intrants de niveau 2 et de niveau 3 influence grandement le coût de financement par voie de dette. Contrairement à certains résultats antérieurs, nous n’observons pas que l’engagement d’auditeurs dits experts contribue à réduire l’effet de la comptabilité à la juste valeur sur le coût de financement. Ces résultats demeurent valides même après avoir contrôlé pour des variables captant le modèle d’affaires des institutions financières. |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-32&r=net |
| By: | Michal Jakubczyk |
| Abstract: | Determining how to trade off individual criteria is often not obvious, especially when attributes of very different nature are juxtaposed, e.g. health and money. The difficulty stems both from the lack of adequate market experience and strong ethical component when valuing some goods, resulting in inherently imprecise preferences. Fuzzy sets can be used to model willingness-to-pay/accept (WTP/WTA), so as to quantify this imprecision and support the decision making process. The preferences need then to be estimated based on available data. In the paper I show how to estimate the membership function of fuzzy WTP/WTA, when decision makers’ preferences are collected via survey with Likert-based questions. I apply the proposed methodology to an exemplary data set on WTP/WTA for health. The mathematical model contains two elements: the parametric representation of the membership function and the mathematical model how it is translated into Likert options. The model parameters are estimated in a Bayesian approach using Markov-chain Monte Carlo. The results suggest a slight WTPWTA disparity and WTA being more fuzzy as WTP. The model is fragile to single respondents with lexicographic preferences, i.e. not willing to accept any trade-offs between health and money. |
| Keywords: | willingness-to-pay/accept, fuzzy set, membership function, preference elicitation |
| JEL: | J17 C11 C13 D71 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016011&r=net |
| By: | Gilles Pag\`es (UPMC); Olivier Pironneau (LJLL); Guillaume Sall (LJLL) |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the computation of second or higher order greeks of financial securities. It combines two methods, Vibrato and automatic differentiation and compares with other methods. We show that this combined technique is faster than standard finite difference, more stable than automatic differentiation of second order derivatives and more general than Malliavin Calculus. We present a generic framework to compute any greeks and present several applications on different types of financial contracts: European and American options, multidimensional Basket Call and stochastic volatility models such as Heston's model. We give also an algorithm to compute derivatives for the Longstaff-Schwartz Monte Carlo method for American options. We also extend automatic differentiation for second order derivatives of options with non-twice differentiable payoff. 1. Introduction. Due to BASEL III regulations, banks are requested to evaluate the sensitivities of their portfolios every day (risk assessment). Some of these portfolios are huge and sensitivities are time consuming to compute accurately. Faced with the problem of building a software for this task and distrusting automatic differentiation for non-differentiable functions, we turned to an idea developed by Mike Giles called Vibrato. Vibrato at core is a differentiation of a combination of likelihood ratio method and pathwise evaluation. In Giles [12], [13], it is shown that the computing time, stability and precision are enhanced compared with numerical differentiation of the full Monte Carlo path. In many cases, double sensitivities, i.e. second derivatives with respect to parameters, are needed (e.g. gamma hedging). Finite difference approximation of sensitivities is a very simple method but its precision is hard to control because it relies on the appropriate choice of the increment. Automatic differentiation of computer programs bypass the difficulty and its computing cost is similar to finite difference, if not cheaper. But in finance the payoff is never twice differentiable and so generalized derivatives have to be used requiring approximations of Dirac functions of which the precision is also doubtful. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the feasibility of Vibrato for second and higher derivatives. We will first compare Vibrato applied twice with the analytic differentiation of Vibrato and show that it is equivalent, as the second is easier we propose the best compromise for second derivatives: Automatic Differentiation of Vibrato. In [8], Capriotti has recently investigated the coupling of different mathematical methods -- namely pathwise and likelihood ratio methods -- with an Automatic differ |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1606.06143&r=net |
| By: | Aithal, Sreeramana; Kumar, Suresh; Kumari, Deekshitha |
| Abstract: | Higher education institutions are vested with the responsibility of grooming a generation of youth through providing quality education and skills, matching the requirements of a harmonious, self-reliant and developed society, and values inclined to serve with selfless devotion in whatever capacity they assume and wherever they work. The society at large looks up to the institutions to address their needs through enhancing educational opportunity, maintaining quality, increasing employability, solving community-based problems, creating a pool of human resources, promoting inter-institutional collaborations and maintaining harmony with outer environment. In order to achieve this, institution formulate action plans for all the operational processes such as admission, teaching, placement, personality development, support services, social responsibility etc. through strategic planning. The perspective plan of the institution clearly spells out its accountability. Leadership is groomed both at student level and teacher level in academics, career, programme organization, sports and games and cultural activities through setting standards, measuring performance, ensuring discipline, character formation and personality building. Quality assurance mechanisms involve the stakeholders namely parents, students, institutions, industry and community to ensure satisfaction and compliance. Through objective criteria such as results and placement, outreach activities, events and programmes, feedback etc. the institution monitors to maintain accountability. This paper discusses the societal expectation and institutional accountability through a case study of Srinivas Institute of Management Studies (SIMS). |
| Keywords: | Accountability in Higher education, Quality assurance mechanisms, Perspective plans, Quality policy. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71992&r=net |
| By: | Caiani, Alessandro; Russo, Alberto; Gallegati, Mauro |
| Abstract: | The paper builds upon the Agent Based-Stock Flow Consistent model presented in Caiani et al. (2015) to analyze the relationship between income and wealth inequality and economic development. For this sake, the original model has been amended under three main dimensions: first, the households sector has been subdivided into workmen, office workers, researchers, and executives which compete on segmented labor markets. Conversely, firms are now characterized by a hierarchical organization structure which determines, according to firms’ output levels, their demand for each type of workers. Second, in order to account for the impact of income and wealth distribution on consumption patterns, different households classes - also representing different income groups - have diversified average propensities to consume and save. Finally, the model now embeds technological change in an evolutionary flavor, affecting labor productivity evolution in the consumption sector through product innovation in the capital sector, where firms invest in R&D and produce differentiated vintages of machineries. The model is then calibrated using realistic values for both income and wealth distribution across different income groups, and their average propensities to consume. Results of the simulation experiments suggest that more progressive tax schemes and labor market policies aiming to increase low and middle workers’ coordination, and to support their wage levels, concur to foster economic development and to reduce inequality, though the latter seem to be more effective under both respects. The model thus provides some evidence in favor of a wage-led growth regime, where improvements of middle-low levels workers’ conditions create positive systemic effects, which eventually trickle up also to high income-profit earners households. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Inequality, Agent Based Macroeconomics, Stock Flow Consistent Models. |
| JEL: | C63 D31 D33 E32 O33 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71864&r=net |
| By: | Rodrigo Lluberas (Banco Central del Uruguay); Juan Odriozola (Banco Central del Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to analyze the effect of inflation and currency depreciation on wealth distribution in Uruguay. Previous empirical work either completely disregard assets denominated in foreign currency or do not consider the effect of changes in the nominal exchange rate on wealth redistribution. We take a different approach and study not only the effect of unexpected inflation but also of exchange rate movements in nominal wealth redistribution within the household sector. This is of particular importance in Uruguay due to the historical relevance of US dollar denominated assets and liabilities. Based on the recent history, we study three alternative scenarios. A 2002-crisis type scenario with a rate of currency depreciation higher than inflation, an early 2008-crisis type scenario with an appreciation of the peso and low inflation and a 2013-type scenario in which depreciation and inflation are roughly the same. A large proportion of household assets are real and most Uruguayan households do not own financial assets or debts. This results in small movements in households nominal positions after unexpected inflation or currency depreciation, particularly compared to similar studies for developed countries. Our results suggest that a crisis like the one experienced in 2002 with an annual inflation of 26% and a 93.5% devaluation of the currency results in an small increase in wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | inflation, nominal wealth, redistribution, households |
| JEL: | D14 D31 E31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bku:doctra:2015009&r=net |
| By: | Jaime DE MELO (Ferdi); Laurent WAGNER (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | The Aid for Trade (AFT) initiative, launched in 2005 to help developing and especially the Least Developed (LDCs) countries integrate the rules of the World Trade System adopted in the Uruguay Round turned out to be more about mobilizing support for the stalled Doha Round negotiations. A decade later, a broadened AFT agenda has eluded effective evaluation. The recently concluded Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) provides an ideal opportunity to narrow the scope of AFT activities to heed the call for “managing for Development results” (MfDR). The paper reviews the evidence on trade costs distinguishing between Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Landlocked LDCS (LLDCs). The paper also includes new estimates of time in transit for international parcel data that is measured relatively accurately. New estimates provide support for allocating a greater share of AFT funds towards LDCs and particularly towards LLDCs, both groups showing higher trade costs than comparators and less progress in reducing trade costs since 1995. On average, time in customs for imports and exports are also significantly higher for both groups than for their respective comparators. LDCs and LLDCs have systematically lower scores for the components in the new OECD Trade Facilitation Indicator (TFI). These new estimates suggest that a successful implementation of the TFA, defined as moving halfway towards the frontier value of the TFI for the respective country grouping could reduce trade costs for imports of LDCs by 2.5% and by 4.5% for LLDCs. Even though there is more to trade costs than customs management, monitoring implementation of the TFA would be part of the IPoA and a stepping stone towards the concrete trade performance targets that have lacked in AFT activities so far. |
| Keywords: | aid for trade |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2960&r=net |
| By: | Jaime DE MELO (Ferdi); Laurent WAGNER (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | The Aid for Trade (AFT) initiative, launched in 2005 to help developing and especially the Least Developed (LDCs) countries integrate the rules of the World Trade System adopted in the Uruguay Round turned out to be more about mobilizing support for the stalled Doha Round negotiations. A decade later, a broadened AFT agenda has eluded effective evaluation. The recently concluded Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) provides an ideal opportunity to narrow the scope of AFT activities to heed the call for “managing for Development results” (MfDR). The paper reviews the evidence on trade costs distinguishing between Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Landlocked LDCS (LLDCs). The paper also includes new estimates of time in transit for international parcel data that is measured relatively accurately. New estimates provide support for allocating a greater share of AFT funds towards LDCs and particularly towards LLDCs, both groups showing higher trade costs than comparators and less progress in reducing trade costs since 1995. On average, time in customs for imports and exports are also significantly higher for both groups than for their respective comparators. LDCs and LLDCs have systematically lower scores for the components in the new OECD Trade Facilitation Indicator (TFI). These new estimates suggest that a successful implementation of the TFA, defined as moving halfway towards the frontier value of the TFI for the respective country grouping could reduce trade costs for imports of LDCs by 2.5% and by 4.5% for LLDCs. Even though there is more to trade costs than customs management, monitoring implementation of the TFA would be part of the IPoA and a stepping stone towards the concrete trade performance targets that have lacked in AFT activities so far. |
| Keywords: | aid for trade |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2959&r=net |
| By: | Juan José Díaz; David Rosas Shady |
| Abstract: | This paper brings new evidence on the impact of The Peruvian Job Youth Training Program (Projoven). Compared with prior evaluations of the program, this one has several advantages. This is the first experimental impact evaluation of Projoven, and also the first to measure impacts over a longer period: almost three years after training. Additionally, the evaluation supplements data from a follow-up survey with administrative data from the country's Electronic Payroll (Planilla Electrónica), allowing for a more accurate measure of formal employment. It also measures whether socioemotional skills of beneficiaries improved with program participation. The evaluation finds a high long term positive impact of Projoven on formal employment. It also finds certain heterogeneity of program impacts across subpopulations. Impacts on formal employment vary depending on the beneficiaries' gender and age, with different patterns of statistical significance depending on the data source used to measure employment formality. Finally, it does not find significant impacts on socio-emotional skills. |
| Keywords: | Formal Employment, Labor Market Insertion, Job Training Programs, Youth Labor, Vocational Education and Training, Long-term Impacts Analysis, Labor Market Policies, Labor Market Insertion, Formal Employment |
| JEL: | J24 J64 O15 O17 |
| Date: | 2016–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:94116&r=net |
| By: | Stephan Klasen (Georg-August University Göttingen); Nathalie Scholl (Georg-August University Göttingen); Rahul Lahoti (Georg-August University Göttingen); Sophie Ochmann (Georg-August University Göttingen); Sebastian Vollmer (Georg-August University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | Income inequality has been rising in many developing countries since the 1980s. At the same time, global income inequality has been roughly stable (or even falling slightly) and there is great heterogeneity in within-country inequality trends across countries and regions. Non-income inequality tends to have fallen, both within and between countries. There is no empirical evidence that rising inequality is an inevitable consequence of economic growth; similarly, the evidence of the impact of changes in inequality on growth is also inconclusive, although higher levels of inequality appear to be harmful for subsequent development. At the same time, reducing inequality is seen as important to promote greater fairness as well as to speed up poverty reduction. To study trends in inequality, we use a framework where income inequality is related to inequality in assets (land, labor, human capital, and physical capital), return to these assets, inequality in private transfers, and redistribution by the state. Trends in inequality are tied to these different drivers which differ greatly by country and over time. This framework also generates opportunities for policy intervention to tackle inequality. This will, however, depend greatly on the country. As a result, it is useful to start a policy framework with an inequality diagnostics to identify the most important drivers of levels and changes in inequality in a particular country; this is also an activity where bilateral development partners can play an important supporting role. When it comes to particular policy issues, some of the issues that have been discussed for a long time remain highly relevant, including land reform (where land is still an important asset), pro-poor educational policies, rural infrastructure, and a focus on improving agricultural productivity of poor farmers. At the same time, increasing the redistributive role of the state through a higher tax take (to be achieved via broadening the tax base, increasing tax compliance, increase resource taxes), and increasing pro-poor social transfers. On the international dimension, there is now a greater emphasis on assisting developing countries with fighting tax evasion and tax avoidance of firms and individuals. As a single bilateral donor, it is not easy to have a significant impact on inequality and an explicit aid program on inequality reduction might also be politically contentious. In principle, the potential is there for significantly affecting inequality via technical cooperation assisting states (and potentially non-state actors) in implementing an inequality-reducing agenda. Budget support and other systemic approaches can of course also support an overall agenda of reducing inequality, as can investment projects if they focus on the policy-areas for inequality reduction outlined here. |
| Date: | 2016–06–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:209&r=net |